January 17, 2011
— Monty [Edit: It is rude to refer to China's president as "Jintao" since that is his given name; "Hu" is the family name. Thanks to Lou in the comments for pointing that out.]
China's President Hu Jintao announces that the USD's status as the default world reserve currency is a "product of the past". Jintao Hu also announced his intention to make the Renminbi (Yuan) a bigger player in the world currency markets.
I see this as a fairly stupid move on JintaoHu's part. The Yuan is worthless as a reserve currency because no one outside of China uses it (and China treats "domestic" Yuan differently than "international" Yuan, which is mainly an electronic bookmark and not a currency per se). And China is trying to flex their financial muscles at a time when much of their own strength is illusory.
JintaoHu's main point may be that while China currently dances to the USD tune -- they buy hundreds of billions worth of USD-denominated Treasuries, after all -- they are not happy about it and do not plan to continue with the status quo forever. China has apparently had enough of Obama's pissing and moaning about the exchange rate, Chinese currency manipulation, and the trade deficit, so they're serving notice that the USD's days as the world's reserve currency are numbered. (This is probably true, though the Yuan certainly won't be the currency to displace it.) China's long-term financial outlook is even bleaker than our own, and the markets know that full well. But China is in the midst of a sugar high, and their dreams of an ascendant Middle Kingdom (never very far below the surface) are bubbling up once again.
Add to that the fact that China is still run by a bunch of authoritarian Communists, and you see why investors might be a little suspicious of China's motives.
Posted by: Monty at
06:02 AM
| Comments (93)
Post contains 290 words, total size 2 kb.
Posted by: The blonde what's smarter than Turbo Tim and Stank Bernank at January 17, 2011 06:08 AM (le5qc)
Posted by: CoolCzech at January 17, 2011 06:08 AM (tJjm/)
Posted by: The blonde what's smarter than Turbo Tim and Stank Bernank at January 17, 2011 06:10 AM (le5qc)
Add to that the fact that China is still run by a bunch of authoritarian Communists
You say that like it's a bad thing.
Posted by: Blue Hen at January 17, 2011 06:10 AM (R2fpr)
Posted by: The blonde what's smarter than Turbo Tim and Stank Bernank at January 17, 2011 06:12 AM (le5qc)
Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.
Posted by: Stuff Zombie Sun Tzu may have said at January 17, 2011 06:12 AM (9hSKh)
Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at January 17, 2011 06:13 AM (mHQ7T)
Posted by: Zakn at January 17, 2011 06:18 AM (zyaZ1)
Posted by: Beto at January 17, 2011 06:18 AM (j5CHE)
Posted by: Meddler at January 17, 2011 06:19 AM (qxxQG)
Posted by: dogfish at January 17, 2011 06:22 AM (NuPNl)
Posted by: Monty at January 17, 2011 06:22 AM (4Pleu)
I'm certainly not a monetary guy so I'm probably talking out of turn. I'll take it on your knowledge that the Yuan won't be the next world currency, but I think the verbalization of the statement by the Chinese is the real headline. It is no longer verboten to formally say to the world that the USD is trashed and will be replaced. We're boned.
Posted by: dogfish at January 17, 2011 06:23 AM (NuPNl)
It will work, he's an idiot.
Posted by: Kemp at January 17, 2011 06:24 AM (JpFM9)
Trust neither, but since the US is a more open society than the ChiComs, there are infinitely more ways to identify and root out corruption here than in Tom Friedman's Fantasy Land.
The CCCP is China's own worst enemy. Like with all authoritarian Communist regimes, people join the Party to get cushy government jobs and to get rich by taking bribes from corrupt public and private officials.
Corruption throughout China is systemic and rampant, all the way from the local Communist-run police stations, to the state-run (or managed) businesses, and even their military.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at January 17, 2011 06:26 AM (9hSKh)
lol. Sure, float that currency, Hu. I dare you to.
Posted by: Waterhouse at January 17, 2011 06:26 AM (Gx9Qb)
China makes all our crap and pours the waste they create into their rivers. China's human rights standards are not acceptable. No matter -we need them to buy our debt so we can have Free Health Care!
Posted by: Lemon Kitten at January 17, 2011 06:28 AM (0fzsA)
Posted by: Muckraker at January 17, 2011 06:33 AM (6K81O)
Posted by: Zombie Walter Duranty at January 17, 2011 06:35 AM (vdfwz)
Posted by: tarpon at January 17, 2011 06:36 AM (g0QB8)
The fucked up thing is the only reason the US Dollar is the standard bearer is because no one has anything better.
Someone should tell O'Bumbles that winning by default is not really winning.
Posted by: Rickshaw Jack at January 17, 2011 06:37 AM (f/zOk)
Posted by: HeatherRadish at January 17, 2011 06:39 AM (4ucxv)
I love how Mark Steyn characterizes China as the wannabe "gay superpower since Sparta".
/In the end, there will be only chaos.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at January 17, 2011 06:43 AM (9hSKh)
Posted by: Have Blue at January 17, 2011 06:46 AM (mV+es)
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at January 17, 2011 06:47 AM (GZITd)
Posted by: SurferDoc at January 17, 2011 06:49 AM (0I+PM)
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at January 17, 2011 10:47 AM
You going all Jared Loughner on us here?
Posted by: MrScribbler© at January 17, 2011 06:49 AM (Ulu3i)
Posted by: Reiver at January 17, 2011 06:49 AM (RFTUX)
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at January 17, 2011 10:47 AM
You going all Jared Loughner on us here?
Not totally. I do not own a g-string.
Also, no one has blamed a single instance of my bad behavior on Sarah Palin. Yet.
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at January 17, 2011 06:50 AM (GZITd)
People in the West, specifically academics, tend to side with China or have a glowing smirk when talking about China's ascent and our decline. They often site recent history. The Opium Wars, the Boxer Rebellion, the Japanese Occupation, etc. China is painted an a poor colonized nation that is emerging to challange the west and finally get even.
However, these journalists, pundits, pseudo-historian types, and left wing editorialists neglect to look at Chinese history prior to 1800 AD (or C.E. if you've just recently graduated highschool).
China's history is a remarkably violent one. People who speak of China's military rise and aggression as harmless falls on deaf ears in Asia. We in the West may only remember the 1800s, 1900s, 2000s, but the people of Asia remember everything before that.
There is a reason China has to deal with the rogue states of Iran, North Korea, Syria, etc. There is a reason that China has no allies. In the past 50 years, at least 20 countries have fought with American troops in conflicts. Many nations in Europe sacrificed soldiers lives and their money for our war in Iraq which reallly had little to do with Europe's defense. They did so because they value our alliance. Can China site any allies of its own willing to do so? If China were to enter a conflict, how do you think the Vietmanese, Indians, Japanese, South Koreans, Russians, Indonesians, Thai's, and others in the vacinity act?
China's power is overstated. As big and powerful as it is, it is surrounded by wary neighbors who are conducting their own military build ups in response to China's. A Pacific NATO will doubtless come into formal existence in the next decade.
I know this isn't directly tied to the currency argument, but it needs to be looked at when viewing China's ascent. As with Lenin's Soviet Union in the 1920s, Mussolini's Italy in the 1930s, and Japan in the 1980s, it is a common american past time to overstate another nations rise while understating our own strengths. I know every media outlet is jumping on the China bandwagon, including Mao Tse Tom Friedman, but it would behoove us to keep a historical perspective of how such phenomenon's have played out in recent history.
Posted by: Ben at January 17, 2011 06:51 AM (wuv1c)
I'm not worried Obama and crew will send the SEIU, the Teamsters Unions to organize the People of the Republic of China and That will Take them down faster than the west.
a girl can dream right.
Posted by: willow at January 17, 2011 06:55 AM (h+qn8)
Can someone name me anything currently in existence that is not a "product of the past"?
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at January 17, 2011 06:56 AM (GZITd)
China wants Taiwan back, above all else. And their economic growth has given them confidence they can get it. They're building up their military strength, jingoistic nationalist rhetoric, and financial leverage in a thorough run-up to invasion. And they'll strike before Jugears leaves office. Who wouldn't?
With the Chicoms, it's all about Taiwan. They claim infinite patience but their greed and Obama's last 2 yrs in office will be the temptation that pushes them to strike. Just watch.
Posted by: Kortezzi at January 17, 2011 06:56 AM (zAZNI)
I mean apart from that baguette from the future that shutdown CERN.
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at January 17, 2011 07:00 AM (GZITd)
"Can someone name me anything currently in existence that is not a "product of the past"?"
Nah. Everything new happened long ago.
Posted by: Joanie (Oven Gloves) at January 17, 2011 07:03 AM (HaYO4)
Posted by: Monty at January 17, 2011 07:04 AM (4Pleu)
Posted by: The Robot Devil at January 17, 2011 07:05 AM (5kaGA)
Wanna hear about my ideas for using weed as currency?
Posted by: Jared Laughner at January 17, 2011 07:07 AM (DYJjQ)
China wants Taiwan back as an ego boost and for some strategic reasons -- they're interested in Africa (well, the resources in Africa) and somewhat interested in S. America (well, resources in S. America) -- if they get Taiwan they'll treat it like Hong Kong if they are smart.
China isn't going anywhere (except eventually down the crapper) until they figure out a way to power their economic development and obtain a more secure way to feed themselves -- why do you think they've been building that deep water navy?
As for America, we aren't exactly boned yet -- but we will be if we continue along this entitlement path and keep allowing immigrants in who are a drain on society (and I'm not talking about one group, or illegal vs. legal -- immigrants who, hell forget integrating, how about just want to work instead of run drug and prostitution gangs while living off welfare?). Our currency isn't worth shit...but then again nobody else's currency is either.
Posted by: unknown jane at January 17, 2011 07:07 AM (5/yRG)
Not to be a Manual of Style here, but it's awkward to keep referring to notable people by their first name unless you know them personally.
It's "Jintao this" and "Jintao that" all throughout the piece. For goodness' sake, the man's surname is Hu. Jintao is his given name.
Posted by: Lou at January 17, 2011 07:08 AM (IH3P2)
"Can someone name me anything currently in existence that is not a "product of the past"?"
Nah. Everything new happened long ago.
Posted by: Joanie (Oven Gloves) at January 17, 2011 11:03 AM (HaYO4)
Buggy Whips?
Posted by: General Motors CEO at January 17, 2011 07:08 AM (5kaGA)
Psych!
Not being a banking or financial expert, but there are a couple 'o problems with this new-fangled New World Order.
1. Nobody really knows what any big banks balance sheet really means.
2. Nobody really knows what is being hidden by the sovereign debt crisis.
3. China is much stronger financially and economically than it was 30 years ago, but what is an accurate and trusty measuring stick for all this? How much "bad debt" are they hiding. It's like a company that has two sets of books on its finances. One set they show the world that shows 8-9% GDP Annual growth. This attracts investors, business, etc.
The other set (which in fact, may not actually exist , but we're speculating here, work with me) shows the non-performing loans and the money the Central Government in China has collected and spent and didn't show any return on, that just disappeared down a rat hole (think US Fed subisdies to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, stimulus money that is actually paying State unemployment benefits, etc).
China is an immensley poor country, even though it is not as poor today as was 20 years ago (or even ten). They also have immense manpower that could be freed up if they mechanized farming (still very labor intensive to save jobs).
They will be stronger in 10 years than they are now, but not sure how it will actually look, relative to the rest of the world.
Posted by: Reader C.J. Burch writes... at January 17, 2011 07:09 AM (usS2T)
Not to be a Manual of Style here, but it's awkward to keep referring to notable people by their first name unless you know them personally.
It's "Jintao this" and "Jintao that" all throughout the piece. For goodness' sake, the man's surname is Hu. Jintao is his given name.
Posted by: Lou at January 17, 2011 11:08 AM (IH3P2)
What are Hu trying to say? I don't understand Lou.
Posted by: The Robot Devil at January 17, 2011 07:10 AM (5kaGA)
Posted by: Conventional Wisdom at January 17, 2011 07:12 AM (S5YRY)
Posted by: USS Diversity at January 17, 2011 07:13 AM (DLxD/)
Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at January 17, 2011 07:14 AM (f9c2L)
Posted by: FlaviusJulius at January 17, 2011 07:15 AM (SJ6/3)
Posted by: Monty at January 17, 2011 07:18 AM (4Pleu)
Thus, China would have to forgo its desire to stay a mercantilist, export-driven economy and would instead have to allow import prices in China to fall. Doing so would lead to great instability at the state-owned exporters. The state is the Communist Party. IOW, the Communists in charge would be forced to accept short-term financial peril to "make a statement against The Man".
That never happens.
This whole thing is stupid chest thumping on the part of the Chinese.
Posted by: Nom de Blog at January 17, 2011 07:19 AM (0LABp)
Leaving aside the communism, China is still one of the worst places on earth, and the left, led by Tom Friedman, couldn't love it more. It's an instructive example of how much evil leftists are willing to tolerate in "the other" while condemning America's slightest fault.
Leftists like to talk about how racist America is. China is one of the most racist countries in the world. If you think of China, you are thinking of the Han Chinese, even though there _used_ to be scores of various ethnic groups in China. For decades the Han have been colonizing Tibet and the Uighur lands and areas in which they formerly didn't live, forcing out the indigenous people and stamping out their culture while replacing it with homogenous Han culture. Free Tibet? Who are we supposed to be freeing it from? The Han Chinese, who have turned the Potala Palace into a tourist attraction.
Leftists like to talk about how sexist America is. China has been carrying out genocide against girls for decades (and the resulting population imbalance is about to come home to roost).
Leftists like to talk about what a polluter America is. China builds a coal-fired power plant every month.
Leftists like to talk about how America coddles despots. China is in a mad rush to corner the world's commodities, and never asks about the human rights records of the dirtbags they buy their oil and other commodities from.
Leftists like to talk about what warmongers Americans area. China has been helping to feed its growth by proliferating weapons to any country with the capital to buy them.
Leftist like to talk about the American gap between the rich and poor, but conveniently gloss over the far larger gap between the billionaires living in the coastal areas of China with the peasants who lack plumbing and electricity and still farm with hand tools in the "people's republic."
Remember lefties, always blame America first.
Posted by: Palandine at January 17, 2011 07:21 AM (g7D8V)
Posted by: Monty at January 17, 2011 07:21 AM (4Pleu)
Posted by: Oldsailor at January 17, 2011 07:22 AM (AovJ3)
36 That's exactly correct. Couple that with their demographics and the fact that once you get into interior China (where most people don't go, and the Chinese aren't very thrilled with you doing) the place is a third world country; China has been on an infrastructure kick, but they've got a long way to go, and they don't have as many skilled laborers as they like to report (another reason why farming isn't mechanized; it isn't all about saving jobs).
Does this mean they should be shrugged off? No...this is when it gets really dangerous in regards to China -- they could wind up doing most anything given the right conditions (which aren't hard to get -- shit gets started over some of the most inconsequential and trifling matters: a telegram, a missing soldier...).
Posted by: unknown jane at January 17, 2011 07:25 AM (5/yRG)
The MFM is still pushing that myth that China is the world's powerhouse for manufacturing. They are NOT.
They have all the same problems that we do except that they have 100% communism instead of 50% communism and fascism. But we have the EPA and OSHA so that balances out.
Posted by: Vic at January 17, 2011 07:28 AM (M9Ie6)
Posted by: Vashta Nerada at January 17, 2011 07:29 AM (0Jb7F)
Posted by: Vic at January 17, 2011 07:32 AM (M9Ie6)
Posted by: FlaviusJulius at January 17, 2011 07:35 AM (SJ6/3)
Posted by: torabora at January 17, 2011 07:35 AM (igfD8)
Posted by: FlaviusJulius at January 17, 2011 07:37 AM (SJ6/3)
Posted by: tarpon at January 17, 2011 10:36 AM (g0QB
It's high time we have a Mao Day paid gubberment day off in America to remember all the Chinese that died so that the survivors could buy our debt.
Posted by: Typical San Fransicko Libtard at January 17, 2011 07:40 AM (igfD8)
Couple that with five-buck gas, and what have you got?
Posted by: MMJ Cardholder at January 17, 2011 07:56 AM (4sQwu)
The problem is that he would never regard it as a failure. Anyhow, the game plan is to force the Taiwanese to capitulate which is something The One would definitely cooperate with.
What The One won't take into account (or comprehend) is that Taiwan may actually be willing fight and die for their freedom.
It's this kind of miscalculation that leads to real war.
Posted by: RayJ at January 17, 2011 08:00 AM (2oRAd)
Posted by: Oldsailor at January 17, 2011 08:35 AM (AovJ3)
Posted by: Dave at January 17, 2011 09:01 AM (YDHR3)
Aren't these all run by the same bunch of party guys at the top? In Russian the name was nomenklatura sp? right? I dunno WTF that is in Chinese.
Posted by: Dave at January 17, 2011 09:04 AM (YDHR3)
And you can bet the libs will screw up the China mess, too.
Posted by: Tea Party Local 101 at January 17, 2011 11:29 AM (kb0wl)
Am I paranoid for thinking the real reason to deny the use of the national mall to future public gatherings is to prevent future Right/Wing/Tea party/Glenn Beck-sponsored gatherings?
Posted by: Josef K. at January 17, 2011 09:07 AM (7+pP9)
Monty,
How is "backed" <> "fixed" ? and if fixed don't you immediately get "Bad money drives out good if their exchange rate is set by law."
Posted by: Dave at January 17, 2011 09:09 AM (YDHR3)
Posted by: Monty at January 17, 2011 09:33 AM (4Pleu)
Their troops' experience is largely limited to killing peasants and protesters.
Their regional allies are unreliable.
Their enemies are legion.
So, they bluster. Unfortunately, the fact that it's a bluff doesn't mean it can't go horribly wrong. I think proliferation is a bigger problem that invasion, but I could be horribly wrong.
The mad Chinese general of movie fame could really exist, quite easily.
Posted by: Merovign, Bond Villain at January 17, 2011 10:00 AM (bxiXv)
Or is that not The Way Of The Metric System, or whatever?....
Posted by: J. Moses Browning at January 17, 2011 11:15 AM (1H3e9)
Posted by: Delicious Lead Paint at January 17, 2011 12:11 PM (Mdbhi)
So we're stuck with Fluctuations (well then fluc you white guys too).
I'd have to study up to debate whether back to fixed is better than the $ and everything else floats somewhat conditioned by umpteen political, economic & just plain trader Liars Poker factors.
A basket of goodies at least avoids the gold isn't currently distributed by wealth either out of the ground, in it or how fast it can be dug up problem.
Posted by: Dave at January 17, 2011 12:43 PM (YDHR3)
Posted by: mikey at January 17, 2011 02:45 PM (JE/54)
Posted by: Democracy with American Characteristics at January 17, 2011 03:50 PM (csWdN)
there.
Posted by: Paul A'Barge at January 18, 2011 09:26 AM (lLS3Y)
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Posted by: The blonde what's smarter than Turbo Tim and Stank Bernank at January 17, 2011 06:06 AM (le5qc)