1 Debka always has the coolest scoops... that turn out to be wishful rumors.

2 Debka always has the coolest scoops... that turn out to be wishful rumors.

Still beats Obama on truthfulness.

3 Also, it's Debka, which a lot of people seem to cite but I really can't think of a Debka scoop that panned out.

ace and wooga, refresh our memories of the fabricated Debka scoops.

4 Also, it's Debka, which a lot of people seem to cite but I really can't think of a Debka scoop that panned out.

Me neither, Ace.  Debka lost me when they started touting a potential Turkish/Iraqi war a few years ago. 

I occasionally skim through their headlines, but I always take their analysis with a grain of salt unless I see two independent confirmations in other media/analysis outlets.

5 Which I never have seen, .  *referring to comment 4*

6 Well if Rusty would enable archive searching over at JawaReport (where I usually hang out), I could find it in no time Just searching "Debka" would pull up a number of examples - if the search feature worked.

7 The thing that bothers me is the coverage refuses to admit that this is NOT seeking freedom and democracy. This is seeking establishment of sharia law and a theocracy to run the country.

IOW replace a secular dictatorship friendly to the West (somewhat) with a religious (somewhat) dictatorship that hates the West.

8 Debka is essentially an Israeli propaganda rag.

Which isn't to say that its never ever correct, or it can't be entertaining to read, but you have to take pretty much ANYTHING it says with a gigantic grain of salt.

9 7 The thing that bothers me is the coverage refuses to admit that this is NOT seeking freedom and democracy. This is seeking establishment of sharia law and a theocracy to run the country.

Good point.  If the Muslim Brotherhood attains power in Egypt...

there will be only chaos.

10 Doesn't seem like Mubarak would spook that easily.

11 10 Doesn't seem like Mubarak would spook that easily.

I think he's had some health problems recently IIRC. 

/Or was that the Saudi king? 

12 7 agreed, Vic.  the Islamists that have been banned from these countries need this chaos to rise to power.  It is Iran 1979 all over again, in both Tunisia and Egypt, imo.  I don't think for a minute that if the islamists are once again allowed to operate politically, that they won't intimidate the street with threats of death to impose their will.  Islam is Islam.

13 Dingy Harry is apparently upset with The One re earmarks.  Basically, told him to backoff.  FOOD FIGHT!

14 Debka's Iraq War coverage was borderline delusional. They had worse "intel" on where the WMDs supposedly were than what's-her-name from the New York Times got from Chalabi's people.

While I have no trouble believing a couple rats may be deserting the sinking ship and Mubarak's family might want to get some of the women and kids moving toward the lifeboats, I don't think Egypt is in for a regime change immediately. 

15 Debka is a mixed bag. They have missed things and been spot on others. Followed them since 9/11.

16 Mubarek is 82 and in poor health.  The only strong force ready to fill the void is the Muslim Brotherhood.  Islam is islam.

17

The fact that it's Debka is reassuring (read:  almost certainly incorrect).  As much as I want to cheer the Egyptians on, a successful ejection of Mubarak won't get them democracy.  It will get them the Ikhwan.

Then God help us all.

18 This one was all over twitter yesterday. Since Debka is actually late to this party, I would call it credible.

19 12  And low and behold, Rached Ghannouchi, leader of Tunisia's banned (until this week) Ennahda (Islamist)  party is set to return to Tunisia from 20 years exile in London.  Iran all over again. (via France 24 and Jihad Watch.)

20 Drudge has the Mubarak Family Flees story linked to the Arab Herald, whoever they are.

21 Fox is reporting it too, but the sourcing goes back to the "Arab Herald", which is probably one of the Arab news sites that Debka sourced from.

Until Mubarak, Jr. gives a press release from London(istan), I'm still doubting this.

22 Speaking of land for peace ... the israeli's leaving gaza really helped didn't it? It's so bad even some of the palis want them back.

23

11 Mubarak has health issues.

Part of the problem is that in Eygpt there is a small number of idealistic young people who actually think they will get a more democratic, open society, another small group of idealistic young people who want to wage war for the oppressed proletariat and who are both being the useful idiots of people like the MB, who have no intention of allowing anything of the sort -- free society or social justice for proletariat types.  Along with that you have the vast majority who just want a nicer apartment and a sewage treatment plant would be nice...perhaps another goat for those in rural areas....and would like to see those crazy kids grow up and get some traditional values, settle down, that sort of thing.

Both aren't happy with the despot in charge (because he is a bit of a nasty, jackbooted thug and well, no new sewage treatment center, no new apartment, I didn't get my free goat! the secret cops are everywhere! social justice!  decadence is ruining the country!) thus both get pandered to by the MB, and both wind up getting sold out -- and often lined up against the wall (especially the idealists, but also any poor slob who happens to bitch that he didn't get his nicer apartment or extra free goat, or whose wife happens to forget to wear her headbag or whatever).

This has played out, and has the potential to play out, in every Islamic country on the planet...and the outcome is usually: pogroms for the infidels, unbelievers, and apostates; then ongoing warfare among the different sects along with harsh retribution against any Mohammedan that starts thinking outside the box; all the while they become bases for the exportation of terror upon the rest of the world.

I don't think Mubarak has fled...yet, but he very well could.  The situation leading up to this in Eygpt was remarkably fertile for just this sort of a coup.

24 Except for having a large population of military age, isn't Egypt really a nonentity?

25 Regarding yesterday's discussion of the assassination of Sadat by the Muslim Brotherhood, besides the fact both Libya, Iraq, and maybe even Syria were also plotting to murder him, Libya was so pissed off that MB beat them to the punch, they assassinated a couple of MB head honchos in Germany as retaliation. You don't mess with the guy in the mou-mou, morons.

26

25 Eygpt is not really a nonentity -- it's in a strategic spot, and for an Islamic country (this is a big qualifier) the population isn't hideously illiterate (which isn's saying much, because I've witnessed their military -- outside of the officer corps, they were frightfully illiterate...but at least the officer corps wasn't too bad and every once and a while you'd come across enlisted that could read a bit).

Plus, it wouldn't matter if it was a nonentity in the traditional sense -- if it falls to something like the MB, then there will be blood (which even though I'm black hearted I would really hate to see people like the Copts and the secular Eygptians I know slaughtered)...and it's still yet another base for terrorist groups to hide in (and one of those is too many).

27 Listen to John Batchelor's fourth hour and his first hour, last night's show.  There's a lot of stuff about this.  His expert was saying that there have been at least three deaths in Egypt.

28 13 kabuki

29 Claire Berlinski, The Guardian:

Certainly, this is a spontaneous, indigenous, authentic democracy movement. That's real. No doubt about it. Supposedly, this is what we wanted to happen in the Middle East when we went into Iraq. This was the desired outcome of the Bush Doctrine. We are not powerless to influence the outcome of these events. Our Secretary of State could get on the phone and say, "Touch one more hair on the head of one more protester and we pull the plug." Or she could get on the phone and say, "Crush it. We'll help. Do what needs to be done. Egypt isn't ready. Remember Iran."

Euro-elite Leftists demanding that Hillary/Obama do something now, anything, but something different: Rich.

If indeed Egyptians blame the US for their suffering under Mubarak, then the forfeit by static Obama's "Present" vote and Hillary's "Reset" button "is" what the US "is" doing (dependent of course upon mutant nuanced meaning).

If this or any other "authentic" revolution in Islam received American aid, the Jihadists would have all the propaganda needed to discredit and annihilate non-theocratic forces in their own populations as American puppet spies corrupting Islam.

And on the other hand, whether the US officials or American population determine or support US policy and diplomatic relations based upon erroneous PC American interpretation of what Jihadists mean is another bowl of wax all together.

Being dogmatic, what Jihadists think isn't going to change one way or another. Also, given the last century minimum time spent under strong-man authoritarian rule, in the long run, whomever the US tax payers fund via the POTUS and Congressional discretion isn't going to ultimately change things for Islamic states "meant" to be nation built by neoconservatives (whether unrepentant unreconstructed Neo-conservative or the latest revision as newly converted to improved reconstructed neoconservative) , whether the population be Egyptians, Tunisians, Mauritanians, Algerians, Moroccans, Libyans, Iraqis, Iranians, Afghans or even Turks.

We're bankrupt. Our tax funds are required at home. That our all volunteer military has already re-deployed into Islamic combat zones too many times to maintain good mental health needs considerable attention granting those with multiple deployments accomplished allowance to return home and secure our borders. 

30 Rush is about to talk about it ... after the commercial break..

31 "This was the desired outcome of the Bush Doctrine." --argh

 

32 Foist Tunisia; then Egypt.  Can Pennsylvania be far behind?

33 #34 ... Kalifornia?

34 ... Detroit?

35

Yeah, I'm calling bullshit on this one till proven otherwise.  I don't see Mubarak giving up power anytime soon.

Some of you are jumping to conclusions with regards to the protests- I've seen little indication that it's all a Muslim Brotherhood plot.  No doubt they'll try to exploit the situation if they can, but let's not pretend that everyone in Egypt secretly longs for the MB to gain power.  There are- like pretty much everywhere else- people there who do genuinely want freedom over dictatorship or athoritarian theocrisy.

 

36 No mention of Mubarak's location, and uncertain event dates by referencing the day before she said the day after. But Claire Berlinski @ The Guardian, this is likely all that you'll get from Hillary.

from Cairo, By KAREEM FAHIM and MONA EL-NAGGAR of NYT:

The United States ambassador in Cairo called on the Egyptian government “to allow peaceful public demonstrations,” and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reiterated that call in blunt remarks to reporters. “We urge the Egyptian authorities not to prevent peaceful protests or block communications including on social media sites,” she said, Reuters reported. Mrs. Clinton’s remarks came a day after she called the government in Egypt “stable.”

37 Everybody laughed because it was so cute.


But they're laughing at me, not with me.

38 37 I mentioned that above: the problem is that the MB talks a good game, the people become their useful idiots, and the third step is: well, allah akbar!  The poor saps usually don't know what hits them until it's too late -- no democracy for you, now get into this lovely burkha/step into this nice semtex belt...you'll see paradise for sure inschallah!

39 to London, you say. No shit? He's a dead man.

One thing you have to admit about Egypt, tanks or no tanks: it is a truly inspirational place to hold an armor battle. So there is that. I am prepared tobruk no disagreement on this question. Got LST's?

40 Do not forget that, as far as Arab militaries go, they are fairly formidable, since we have been training and equipping them  for the last twenty years.  There is a lot of relatively current U.S. military technology laying around.

41 It is Iran 1979 all over again, in both Tunisia and Egypt, imo.

Yep, and we have Jimmy II in office to screw it up now just like they did then.

42 Turkey will go jihadi eventually, too.  Unless the Turkish military starts whacking people again.

43 In the meantime, His Serene Highness, Prince Obi-Won, refuses to consider that a crisis exists anywhere in the region ... because he unleashed the ultimate weapon to still the troubled waters two years ago: The Cairo Speech.

44 You know its the real deal when protesters or militant agitators/provocateurs storm prisons and throw open the gates - at that point - military officers are faced with four options.

1)fire on protesters.
2)change allegiances.
3)flee the country.
4)don civilian clothes.

Hez grabbing power in Lebanon, turmoil in Tunisia and Egypt's future uncertain.

Israel at defcon 2?

45 Correction, Akhbar al-Arab is at http://www.akhbaralarab.ae/, but it's still in Arabic.

46

I imagine the IDF has a contingency plan for this scenario. Remember that no Egyptian heavy artillery or tanks, etc are allowed in Sinai under the peace treaty with Israel. So if Egypt's government does collapse I can imagine the IDF considering a defensive line somewhere not too far east of the canal.

47 Thank you for your sharing.

48 It's a lateral move really.