July 27, 2011

DOOM to Nation: Drop Dead!
— Monty

DOOOOM


If you haven't been following that cool new show called Debt Ceiling, let me catch you up:


  • Senator McConnell's plan didn't garner much support. People felt that it was a craven attempt to deflect blame (which is pretty much what it was).

  • The "Gang of Six" plan came next. The only problem: no one, GOP or Democrat, much liked it. It crept off quietly to die by the side of the road somewhere.

  • The GOP put on their big-boy pants and passed the "Cup, Cap, and Balance" bill in the House (with a few Democrat votes thrown in to make it bipartisan), but the evil Harry Reid wouldn't even let it come to a vote in the Senate.

  • House Speaker John Boehner has come up with "The Boehner Gambit" to get at least something of of this drawn-out debate, but the CBO shat all over it and now it must be redrafted to keep the GOP House from killing it with extreme prejudice.

  • The Dastardly Dingy Harry has a nefarious plan known as "The Harry Reid Imperative" in a secret vault, just waiting for his nemesis Cryin' John Boehner to fail.

  • The financial Apocalypse predicted by His Majesty the King keeps failing to materialize. (In fact His Majesty has been calling banks on the down-low to assure them that there will be no default. Which makes a cynic like me think that his public statements to the contrary just might have been alarmist bullshit.)

  • Marcia is celebrating the birth of her child when her husband Arturo comes out of his coma and announces that he cannot be the father of little Gertrude, because he had a vasectomy years ago. It turns out the real father is Arturo's heretofore-unknown twin brother, Osvaldo, who had been working as a Guatemalan mercenary for years before arriving in Elmdale to stand-in for his stricken brother. Marcia was so devastated that she passed out and hit her head, and now she's in a coma. Butch wants to tell Yelena that he has fallen in love with the cabana boy Richard, but fears Yelena's crazy business-magnate father Lowell will have him killed.


Back when they first announced this show, I was sure it was going to be a boring waste of time. Who knew it would have this much action and adventure? I wonder what's going to happen next!

Are we boned? Yes. But the thing is: everyone else is boned too. That doesn't really ease the burn, though.

When the word "malaise" once again enters the nation's argot, you know we're back in Carter Country.

Help us, Ben Bernanke! You're our only hope!

I've been saying it for a long time: Tax the poor! A lot of people are coming around to that view. Even people on the bottom end of the income ladder must have some skin in the government game. They have to know that government has a cost, and that if they want more government, the cost (to them!) is going to go up.

The WSJ has more to say about America's broken jobs engine. The problem is a complex one, and is not solely attributable to the current downturn. Our workforce's skills are badly-aligned with the needs of businesses (jobs are going begging during a period of 10% unemployment because there are no qualified applicants), technology and automation have removed many jobs entirely, and foreign competition is heating up, making our labor costs uncompetitive. This is a complicated problem that will take (probably) many years to solve, and will require a much more able political class than the one we have now. (That bit about the "just-in-time worker" from the article strikes me as very prescient about what your future jobs are going to look like.)

New orders for durable goods in June fell -- everybody together now! -- "unexpectedly"!

Via Insty: Is the Euro an idea whose time is gone? Actually, it was a shitty idea right from the get-go. It never really had a "time".

Hold on tight, now, my children: a 500-day retail recession is on the way. Instead of "Summer of Change" we can call it "Summer of Chump"?

California has found a new way to screw both itself and the citizens who live there by making it hard to build and buy single-family homes. I'm sure you'll be as shocked as I am to find that the geniuses behind this one are the global-warming alarmists and their fellow social-planners on the Left. My message to Californians: you're getting what you voted for. Good and hard.

UPDATE 1: Many casual observers wonder -- if American debt is so bad, why are investors still flocking to it? The reason is simple: there aren't many alternatives. But it's also vital to note that this may not always be the case; if investors ever find a viable altnernative to US Treasury debt before we get our fiscal house in order, we are well and truly boned beyond redemption. Our reprieve is due to luck, not skill.

Posted by: Monty at 04:58 AM | Comments (108)
Post contains 846 words, total size 7 kb.

1 Honestly, if I was on the ledge- I'd jump.

Posted by: Marcus at July 27, 2011 05:03 AM (CHrmZ)

2 Yep, but we can afford to wait another year for a decent plan- that itself won't take effect for another 4+ years after that- to do anything about the budget.  Yep.  I completely take back everything I wrote in Gabe's last thread.

Wait.  No.  I don't.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at July 27, 2011 05:08 AM (KxyHe)

3 HAMMER TIME? NO, DOOM TIME!

Posted by: phoenixgirl at July 27, 2011 05:08 AM (eOXTH)

4

Well, the obvious answer is to keep doing what we've been doing.  It will all eventually work out and we'll be seen as reasonable voices by those who now see us as cold-hearted and uncomprimising.  Think of the political capital it will garner!

I call it The Malor Doctrinetm.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at July 27, 2011 05:10 AM (B+qrE)

5 Under normal circumstances, I would agree that we, as a country, are doomed.  But the fact that everything indicates that we're doomed and the way the politicians on both sides are able to play this fact like a chess game at exactly the right time leads me to reiterate something that I said in the last thread.  So it's conspiratorial, sue me.
I believe there is something under the surface of this entire situation that the leaders of both sides know about but the public is being kept in the dark about.  We have been recruited as pawns in this game of politics and our participation is perpetuating the same old game.  How convenient is this to take a controversy like 'gun runner' off of the front pages at just the right time?  How convenient is it for the elders in the Republican party to emerge on top after the Tea Party players absconded with their power?  We thought the game was ending - that the game would change.  There is a surprise coming I believe, that will show how expertly we were played but the relief that everyone will feel at not being doomed after all, will keep us from seeing it.  But the politicians will have won none the less.

Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at July 27, 2011 05:11 AM (jx2j9)

6 I think Boehner should rewrite his bill, throw it out there and say "This is it. Take it or leave it." Let Obungler and Harry the Senile Schmuck work it out.

Posted by: SurferDoc at July 27, 2011 05:12 AM (STdkO)

7 Coffe and Doom, the best part of waking up.

Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at July 27, 2011 05:14 AM (ZDUD4)

8

Monty could have phoned in this DOOMer simply by linking to Gabe.

Posted by: glowing blue meat at July 27, 2011 05:15 AM (K/USr)

9 I think Boehner should rewrite his bill, throw it out there and say "This is it. Take it or leave it." Let Obungler and Harry the Senile Schmuck work it out.

And I think Boehner should say, "The house passed a budget, including a plan to get spending back under control.  Further, we have passed- for the immediate crisis- a Cut, Cap, and Balance plan which would immediately cut spending, cap it at a certain amount, and provide for a Balanced Budget Amendment.  These are not radical ideas.  The Senate has been letting these plans languish for some time.  They can either take them back up and pass them, or respond with their own plan- actual legislation which the House can review and analyze, and the CBO can score.  Until that is done, the House is moving on with other business."

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at July 27, 2011 05:16 AM (KxyHe)

10 #4...that's teh funneh, right there.

Gabe really had a chance to recalibrate after the CBO scoring of his favored plan...but, nope...doubles down on the small victories play.  

Wash, rinse, repeat in the hizzy.

Posted by: The Hammer at July 27, 2011 05:16 AM (dja/g)

11 6--oh no, its much more productive when he continues to bid against himself. Six more days to August 2?  Boehner is good for at least 6 more proposals.

Posted by: King Barky I, showing the Speaker how to play the competition at July 27, 2011 05:17 AM (K/USr)

12 we don't need to tax the poor....we need to cut their benefits severely or eliminate the benefits all together.....yes, i know that is harsh....

Posted by: phoenixgirl at July 27, 2011 05:17 AM (eOXTH)

13 So, let's say they don't get anything done and stuff does start to burn...any real guesses on how Obama handles the beginning of the Doom Storm?

Does he go full public leftist, statist, and make blatant power grabs ala Chavez, in the name of saving the country?  Does he act all leadery in public but continue the shadows games he's playing now?  Is a total Doom Storm really what he wants?

Posted by: The Hammer at July 27, 2011 05:19 AM (dja/g)

14 Posted by: phoenixgirl at July 27, 2011 09:17 AM (eOXTH)

See, I'm almost as happy with your plan as with actually taxing them.

You're at or below the poverty line?  Fine, you don't pay taxes.  Fine, your State (if it so chooses) can provide any assistance it wishes.  But you don't get one dime in Federal benefits of any kind.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at July 27, 2011 05:19 AM (KxyHe)

15 My plan is simple: Borrow vast sums of money and use it to prop up risky assets, such as stocks and commodities. What could possibly go wrong?

Posted by: Ben Bernanke, Ph.D. at July 27, 2011 05:20 AM (6G4w8)

16

test

 

Posted by: kdny at July 27, 2011 05:21 AM (qoxO4)

17 test

I give it a solid B+.  More effort next time.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at July 27, 2011 05:21 AM (KxyHe)

18 the last line of the Cali article is a great rip at aging boomer/hippies. I'd copy and paste but the comments thingy hates me.

Posted by: kdny at July 27, 2011 05:22 AM (qoxO4)

19

test

I give it a solid B+.  More effort next time.

Did not show work.

D-

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at July 27, 2011 05:22 AM (B+qrE)

20

Step 1

Totally defund the federal EPA and leave the work of environmental protection to the fifty state EPAs. That would eliminate in one fell swoop a huge drag on economic development and save the courts the trouble of overruling the EPA's overreach on many fronts, such as CO2 regulation.

A majority of Americans no longer believe in Al Gore's hysterical rantings, which even he admits was a form of vote buying in the Iowa caucuses.

Just do it!

 

 

Posted by: Bruce Thompson at July 27, 2011 05:23 AM (LuPtP)

21

T3ST!

Better, teach?

Posted by: kdny at July 27, 2011 05:23 AM (qoxO4)

22 testicular

Posted by: Are We Having Fun Yeti at July 27, 2011 05:23 AM (O7Q1u)

23 The S&P already said that this country's debt would be downgraded by anything less than a $4 trillion dollar cut.  No plan out there reaches that level even with smoke and mirrors so the only things that could pull this country's fat out of the fire would be to inflate our way out of this mess.  Or... something else.  I don't think the politicians are really considering inflating our way out of this.  The danger would be too great.  I think is is something else.  But what?

Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at July 27, 2011 05:24 AM (jx2j9)

24 "And with easily accessible medical marijuana and a good sound system for playing Grateful Dead recordings, the gray-ponytail set could be in for a hell of a good time, at least as long as it lasts." for kdny

Posted by: phoenixgirl at July 27, 2011 05:24 AM (eOXTH)

25

See, Phoenix, it hates me.

I kept getting the annoyinng string of text crap.

Posted by: kdny at July 27, 2011 05:25 AM (qoxO4)

26 15, No Shit, the Dow should be around 7000 right now. Between printing so much money our currency is devalued and using tarp to bail out companies that should no longer be in business, we have allowed our economy to be set up on a rickety house of cards. The next best investment is rubber bullits and tear gas. When the free stuff stops flowing into big cities, the riots will be epic.

Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at July 27, 2011 05:26 AM (ZDUD4)

27 9 And I think Boehner should say, "The house passed a budget, including a plan to get spending back under control.  Further, we have passed- for the immediate crisis- a Cut, Cap, and Balance plan which would immediately cut spending, cap it at a certain amount, and provide for a Balanced Budget Amendment.  These are not radical ideas.  The Senate has been letting these plans languish for some time.  They can either take them back up and pass them, or respond with their own plan- actual legislation which the House can review and analyze, and the CBO can score.  Until that is done, the House is moving on with other business."

Exactly! You finished my thought.

Posted by: SurferDoc at July 27, 2011 05:27 AM (STdkO)

28 I just got an email from my senator, Bill Nelson, who was commenting that BOTH parties got us into this debt, and we need to do what the President says to fix it because he's so darn wonderful. He asked for comments from constituents, but I don't know how to answer him without curse words.

Posted by: moki at July 27, 2011 05:27 AM (dZmFh)

29 old sailor- I'm thinking the flashmobs and spontaneous beat whitey nights are a little precursor.

Posted by: kdny at July 27, 2011 05:27 AM (qoxO4)

30 30, I think you are right.

Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at July 27, 2011 05:28 AM (ZDUD4)

31 According to Thomas Sowell the CA green space laws is what led to the start of the housing bubble escalation.

But that kind of shit no longer matters, the entire country is on the brink of collapse because 75% of the congress is either clueless or still playing stupid political games.

Posted by: Vic at July 27, 2011 05:29 AM (M9Ie6)

32

moki- How bout "Go fornicate yourself."

Posted by: kdny at July 27, 2011 05:29 AM (qoxO4)

33 So the WSJ is agreeing with me that automation is occurring faster than new different jobs are being created? I posited this here just the other day. And before you ask, no I'm not a Luddite.
 
Big business profits have remained decent due to outsourcing and automation, while the number of employees and their hours worked have dropped. While the change from an agricultural economy to an industrial one took 50+ years, this change is happening much faster.
 
Just ask the Post Office, where big changes are coming. There is much less need to haul around paper and deliver it. Meters no longer need to be read. Licenses can be renewed online. Checks are no longer written. Online shopping is growing by leaps and bounds still, reducing the need for clerks and salespeople.
 
Construction is still in the dumps and will likely remain there for years as excess home inventory is worked off.
 
Even with regulatory, tax and trade reform, I don't see where a great big new pile of jobs is coming from. At least no time soon.

Posted by: GnuBreed at July 27, 2011 05:29 AM (ENKCw)

34 I read the LA Times puff piece. Suddenly he thinks that "conservatives" are responsible for the bubble in enthusiasm for China, and that the tea party is driving the country off the cliff and gunning the accelerator...

I've seen less communist stuff in the current damn issue of Pravda.

Posted by: Abdominal Snowman at July 27, 2011 05:29 AM (qITqt)

35 test I give it a solid B+.  More effort next time. Did not show work. D- Feels like a C. Bulk it up with some pie charts and graphs. And for every grade over an A, I'll throw in a trip to Hawaii. Off-season, of course.

Posted by: Empire of Jeff, EXXXTREME KKKONSERVATIVE at July 27, 2011 05:30 AM (lbo6/)

36 I've seen less communist stuff in the current damn issue of Pravda. And they don't lie near as much as the NYT.

Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at July 27, 2011 05:31 AM (ZDUD4)

37

Hell, I can tell you what happened to America's Jobs Engine.  It left the building along with the housing market.

I've worked in  the housing policy field for 30 years, and it has never ceased to amaze me how none of our great political leaders, Fed Chairmen, business analysts, or media types understand how damned important housing - and really, all of real estate - is to the functioning of America's economy.  I once proposed that all legislation and regulation out of Washington  include a Housing Impact Statement.  This was in 1992 when I worked for the National Association of Realtors.

You want small business?  You need houses being built, sold, renovated.  So far there isn't any Wal-Mart of home renovation, plumbing, painting, landscaping, interior design, window replacement, carpeting, flooring, pool building, electrical work, or even real estate sales; and these are jobs and businesses that cannot be shipped to China or India.  These are all local businesses that are sustained and grown through a vibrant housing market.  When housing tanks, they tank. 

You want blue-collar jobs?  You need housing and commercial construction.  There aren't enough dollars in the Chinese banks to finance enough "infrastructure" projects to re-employ the hundreds of thousands of construction and construction-related workers that have been put of work since our housing market busted in 2006.  These people need jobs!

You want wealth building?  You need houses to maintain and improve their value over time.  Home equity has historically been the single biggest source of capital for new small business formation.  It's no accident that small business formation has fallen off a cliff since 2007.  We cannot expect BuyN'Large Bank to finance all these dreamers and schemers out there, some of who might have the next Amazon.com in their heads.

You want labor mobility?  You need a vibrant housing market so people can sell quickly and relocate for a job.  We have a tron of unemployed people right n ow who are more than willing to move for a job but can't because their houses are underwater and they are in markets where nothing is selling.

Posted by: rockmom at July 27, 2011 05:32 AM (lSyyU)

38 He asked for comments from constituents, but I don't know how to answer him without curse words.

Take my statement (that I think Boehner should make) and modify it slightly.

Maybe give the Morons his email address so we can spam him with that response.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at July 27, 2011 05:32 AM (KxyHe)

39 Why the hell is a 5% across the board cut so hard to manage.

My guess is that 250 millions of Americans have done it already.  Two years in a row.

Posted by: Jack at July 27, 2011 05:34 AM (8IAHO)

40 Hmmm. I agree with McArdle. That disturbs me, and requires me to re-examine my assumptions.

Posted by: Waterhouse at July 27, 2011 05:35 AM (2sn+p)

41 OT: Reid plan back to drawing board - CBO says 'you lie'

Posted by: cherry π at July 27, 2011 05:35 AM (OhYCU)

42 34-Hah! Thanks kdny. Euphemisms for foul language are really useful! As for the California "houses are bad" meme, we lived in Warsaw and were surrounded by the Soviet era "blocks". These blocks were fifteen to twenty foot highrises with 90 square foot apartments for a family of four. Because that's all you were allowed. They were ugly then, they are uglier now, and the Poles are trying to build single family homes to get out of those messes. But the California commies would impose that on people, because it's so much better for the environment. I wish these idiots could see the effects of Soviet communism in a real world situation, but I suppose their thought it "we can do it better!!!eleventy11"

Posted by: moki at July 27, 2011 05:35 AM (dZmFh)

43 It crept off quietly to die by the side of the road somewhere.

Still smells to high Heaven too.  Then again, every one of the plans involves spending more money Now, "saving" money later, even though subsequent Congresses could just as well ignore them.  The end result of ANY deal will be an increase in taxes right away and absolutely no savings whatever in the future.  You can bank on it.  It's the Washington Way, both Republican and Democrat. The only cuts would come if the Debt isn't raised at all; that would be real and immediate.  Eventually it would be a major plus to the USA.

Posted by: dfbaskwill at July 27, 2011 05:36 AM (71LDo)

44

Help us, Ben Bernanke! You're our only hope!

Oh.  Dear.  God.  Words more chilling than we're from the government and we're here to help. 

Monty, I missed a few eps.  Did Esmerelda ever find out that her lover was cheating on her with her sister Rafaela?  Did the missing dagger ever turn up?  Because I'm pretty sure I know how those plot threads are going to collide. 

 

Posted by: alexthechick at July 27, 2011 05:37 AM (VtjlW)

45

Tim Gordon's article in the American Thinker makes a pretty good argument, channeling Robert Bork, against supporting a Balanced Budget Amendment. 

Why Conservatives Should Bork the Balanced Budget Amendment

A BBA has always sounded like a cop-out to me and if Gordon is to be believed, a BBA would dangerously expand the power of the Judiciary.  Imagine if all liberals had to do to increase taxes and entitlements for all eternity was to get back something like the Warren Court...

/Please discuss.

Posted by: Modern Day Liberals at July 27, 2011 05:37 AM (9hSKh)

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at July 27, 2011 05:38 AM (9hSKh)

47

#41 That's exactly what we need somebody to say.  I don 't know why Mitt Romney or Tim Pawlenty can't get "outside the box" and just say "vote for me and I will cut EVERYTHING by 5% a year until we get this debt wrestled to the ground."  There is no agency or progam in the entire government that cannot find savings of 5%, and can probably do it 3 or 4 years in a row without anyone sneezing.  Businesses that have survived this recession have done so by trimming expenses continually.   The House just voted to cut its own budget by about 5%. 

What we can't have is a 50-60% overnight cut that would happen if we don't raise the debt ceiling.

Posted by: rockmom at July 27, 2011 05:38 AM (lSyyU)

48

Who's "Butch"?

Oh, Butch Kegan.  Got it.

Posted by: Mr. Dave at July 27, 2011 05:38 AM (rRkN5)

49

24 The S&P already said that this country's debt would be downgraded by anything less than a $4 trillion dollar cut.  No plan out there reaches that level even with smoke and mirrors so the only things that could pull this country's fat out of the fire would be to inflate our way out of this mess. 

Wait, your telling me these idiots know what it takes to prevent a downgrade and all they come up with is a few billion in cuts.  Now we know its a F'n shellgame, man have we been screwed

Posted by: Red Shirt at July 27, 2011 05:38 AM (FIDMq)

50 Boehner should say he's not doing another damn thing 'til Little Prince 'No' produces his plan in writing.

Posted by: nickless at July 27, 2011 05:40 AM (MMC8r)

51 There is no agency or progam in the entire government that cannot find savings of 5%, and can probably do it 3 or 4 years in a row without anyone sneezing.

Yep, although even if Pawlenty or Romney said that, they are still both so flawed that they would not jump to the top of my list.  Now, there's a guy in Texas...



No, not Ron Paul!

Posted by: Y-not, pragmatist at July 27, 2011 05:41 AM (5H6zj)

52 40-Thanks AllenG, if you don't mind my stealing your words-I think that is the perfect example. Apparently Nelson's email was at the behest of the president, who has been urging congressmen and senators to reach out to their constituents and request their opinions of the way to solve the impasse. I think it would be a good idea of all the Morons took your response and sent it to their own congress critters and senators, and see what happens. A nifty social science experiment that might actually do some good for our country.

Posted by: moki at July 27, 2011 05:41 AM (dZmFh)

53 Re: California.  I lived in San  Diego for 2 years in 1989-1991.  I moved there from Northern Virginia.  I used to joke all the time with people in SD that in Virginia, they think building more roads causes traffic, while in California they think building more houses causes traffic.  In Virginia they let builders build whatever they want but won't build the roads to hold the traffic.  Traffic is actually worse in the DC area than in Los Angeles now.  In California they call it BANANA - Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anyone.

Posted by: rockmom at July 27, 2011 05:41 AM (lSyyU)

54 52 Boehner should say he's not doing another damn thing 'til Little Prince 'No' produces his plan in writing.
Didn't you get the memo?  Asking the President to produce a plan is simply a "Republican Talking Point" and a distraction. 

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at July 27, 2011 05:43 AM (9hSKh)

55 Marcia is celebrating the birth of her child when her husband Arturo comes out of his coma and announces that he cannot be the father of little Gertrude, because he had a vasectomy years ago. It turns out the real father is Arturo's heretofore-unknown twin brother, Osvaldo, who had been working as a Guatemalan mercenary for years before arriving in Elmdale to stand-in for his stricken brother. Marcia was so devastated that she passed out and hit her head, and now she's in a coma. Butch wants to tell Yelena that he has fallen in love with the cabana boy Richard, but fears Yelena's crazy business-magnate father Lowell will have him killed.

Wait.. Has Livvie recovered from her amnesia yet?

Posted by: Dave C at July 27, 2011 05:43 AM (idSAM)

56 I don 't know why Mitt Romney or Tim Pawlenty can't get "outside the box" and just say "vote for me and I will cut EVERYTHING by 5% a year until we get this debt wrestled to the ground."

Because Romney is a spineless empty suit and Wall Street tool.   In other words, the next GOP nominee for president.  


Posted by: VADM (Red) Cuthbert Collingwood RN at July 27, 2011 05:45 AM (hZqYp)

57 Posted by: moki at July 27, 2011 09:27 AM (dZmFh) I got the sameemail and am having the same exact problem. Funny enough, I already emailed that jackarse earlier last week to tell him what a worthless pile of shite he is for voting to table CCB. You think emailing him again would be overkill?

Posted by: Mandy P. at July 27, 2011 05:47 AM (vGmv/)

58 Didn't you get the memo?  Asking the President to produce a plan is simply a "Republican Talking Point" and a distraction.

Barky didn't get where he is now by showing his work, he isn't about to start now. It's how he sets himself up to vote 'present' yet again. Besides, he's so thin-skinned he couldn't take the criticism that Boehner and Reid have gotten for their plans.

Posted by: Retread at July 27, 2011 05:47 AM (G+7cD)

59 I think President pissypants has no idea what to do. If you truly listened to him, you heard nothing. He's afraid. He sees whats coming and that will require him to make decisions. These are decisions to combat issues that never once shown themselves in a college textbook. Congress has been and will be combative and indecisive. It's the nature of that beast. The leadership is missing, that's the biggest DOOM of all.

Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at July 27, 2011 05:47 AM (ZDUD4)

60 Posted by: Vic at July 27, 2011 09:29 AM (M9Ie6)

This is one of the few times where you are being generous, and perhaps naive.

Congress is doing this not because of stupidity of political gamesmanship. They are doing this to protect their jobs. They make a lot of money, especially for the skills required to function reasonably well as a legislator. They have unbelievable perks, excellent job security, a fantastic pension plan, great health care, and a work week that is essentially bullshit. They have to show up for votes, suck up to big donors and some constituents, and then fuck the cute pages and secretaries.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at July 27, 2011 05:48 AM (LH6ir)

61

Posted by: rockmom at July 27, 2011 09:32 AM (lSyyU)


Exactly..   For about the last 15 years, the few jobs I've had depended on the Housing and Real Estate industry..



Posted by: Dave C at July 27, 2011 05:48 AM (idSAM)

62

The S &P won't do dick. If they do they'll be invetigated by congress.

Posted by: Ben at July 27, 2011 05:49 AM (wuv1c)

63 Summer of Chummin'
Yep. All of us who are paying attention have solved this crisis over and over. But the Government had never understood what pure common sense could actually mean.

Posted by: DefendUSA at July 27, 2011 05:49 AM (c81D+)

64

There will be a downgrade of the USA no matter what happens with this Defideceit reduction arguement and teh R's will shoulder teh blame from the MSM and from POTUS. No question about it.

My fear right now is that with BHO is weak and falling in the polls, and the R's are not doing all that well either.

The time is ripe for a third party firebrand candidate. And this can only benefit POTUS. There is division among and within both parties, and the rhetoric escalates constantly, but Libs will be Libs, they may complain and whine, but they will stay aligned to BHO.

 

 

Posted by: MisterMoney at July 27, 2011 05:51 AM (wN82N)

65 Re: Update #1 - I'm not convinced it's luck that has kept US Bonds in demend so much as it is the remains of the results of American Exceptionalism.  It took us a few decades to tear it down, but we're finally getting near the end.

PS- My Firefox spellchecker is throwing a hissy fit about "Exceptionalism."  Also "hissy."

Posted by: Long-time Commenter, First-time Reader at July 27, 2011 05:54 AM (Jbj03)

66 S&P will do what they have to for bond investors or they will cease to exist.

Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at July 27, 2011 05:55 AM (jx2j9)

67 Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at July 27, 2011 09:48 AM (LH6ir)

But isn't that part of the reelection politics game?hey were more worried about who would get elected in a purple State.

Oh well, it is both.

Posted by: Vic at July 27, 2011 05:55 AM (M9Ie6)

68 Dead Peasant Life Insurance Policies are all the rage these days. Payouts go Managers as bonuses. Wonder if I'm covered?

Posted by: sTevo at July 27, 2011 05:55 AM (q1Tbv)

69 Its all fearmongering. Freedom Fighters hold the LINE!!!!!! All of our dreams will come true!!!"

Posted by: Erick Egomaniac Erickson at July 27, 2011 05:56 AM (9I3vJ)

70 Any "cut" that does not decrease the spending in the 2011 budget below that of the 2010 budget is a lie.
Any "cut" that does not decrease the spending in the 2012 budget below that of the 2011 budget is a lie.
Any "cut" that is scheduled to occur in any of the 2013-2021 budgets is a lie.

Posted by: Hrothgar at July 27, 2011 05:56 AM (Qp5Ml)

71

Defideceit reduction plan?

I don't see any plan from any of them that actually reduces the defideceit. Maybe slows its growth, that's about it.

Let the deadline pass. Then there will be some reduction as the POTUS will have to actually make some decisions as to who gets paid, and how many government employees will have to be laid off. That will cut some spending. Lots of it.

Posted by: MisterMoney at July 27, 2011 05:57 AM (wN82N)

72 My Firefox spellchecker is throwing a hissy fit about "Exceptionalism."

When I type "conservative", it says "Not Found"

Posted by: cherry π at July 27, 2011 05:59 AM (OhYCU)

73 Posted by: Hrothgar at July 27, 2011 09:56 AM (Qp5Ml)

Put that on post-cards and mail them to the Capitol Building.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at July 27, 2011 06:00 AM (KxyHe)

74 Posted by: Vic at July 27, 2011 09:55 AM (M9Ie6)

Absolutely. It's politics as usual. The thing is; even the most jaded old farts among us occasionally think and hope that these people are acting in the best interest of the country. And that just never happens. I think that the selection that occurs in our society effectively eliminates altruistic people from the pool of candidates. Those who are left to run are sociopaths - more willing to help themselves than to help the country.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at July 27, 2011 06:01 AM (LH6ir)

75 Posted by: Soap MacTavish at July 27, 2011 10:00 AM (vbh31)

UPS doesn't work that way. Whoever told you that is incorrect.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at July 27, 2011 06:02 AM (LH6ir)

76 Isn't Esmeralda the one who was pregnant for 11 months?

Posted by: SurferDoc at July 27, 2011 06:03 AM (STdkO)

77

Anyone watch Kudlow last night?  I don't usually watch CNBC at night, but last night it was excellent.  Kudlow had some guys on who said that a downgrade is not a huge deal and people should not panic about it.There won't be massive dumping of Treasuries or a market panic at all.  Most smart investors have already factored in an eventual downgrade. 

After that CNBC ran a fantastic documentary about the New York City financial crisis of the 1970s.  Many people forget, or are not old enough to remember, that New York City was literally minutes from actually filing for bankruptcy almost 35 years ago.  At that time, NYC had almost as much debt outstanding as the U.S. government, so a default or bankruptcy would have been HUGE.  It had a million people on welfare, huge and seemingly unbreakable union contracts, a massive crime wave, whole neighborhoods empty, businesses torching themselves for insurance money, an exodus of the upper middle class to the suburbs, etc.  It was an apocalyptic scene and most Americans through the the city was beyond saving.  It also had free everything - free hospital care, free university tuition, etc.  It was financing all this with more and more debt, until the debt market froze up and said "no more." 

Bottom line, with both a small bailout and a financial takeover by the U.S. government, plus some tough leadership by Mayor Ed Koch, the city was pulled off the cliff and survived. 

Posted by: rockmom at July 27, 2011 06:03 AM (lSyyU)

78

The House has already compromised.  They raised the debt ceiling in the Cap Cut and Balance. They can walk away now because nobody else has done anything serious about getting spend under control.

The Republicans need to resume the mantle of the Daddy Party.  GW Bush turned it into Mommy Party II.  We need a party that deals with reality. If the electorate chooses otherwise they will learn Daddy was right all along when it gets mugged by Mr. Reality.  

Posted by: Minuteman at July 27, 2011 06:04 AM (hbAPu)

79 74 When I type "conservative", it says "Not Found"

Posted by: cherry ð at July 27, 2011 09:59 AM (OhYCU)


It is supposed to be spelled R-E-A-C-T-I-O-N-A-R-Y. If we weren't all uneducated hicks we would know that already.

Posted by: Grey Fox at July 27, 2011 06:05 AM (iByFg)

80 While we are on the subject of "stuff" I said I would like to make sure that the Morons know what my actual position on SS is and what it has been. I do this because I was accused last night of "wanting my SS at the expense of economic collapse" and that is NOT and has not ever been my position. We have had some contentious debates here on the Monty doom thread over SS reform in the past and I will repeat my position.

The current reforms being discussed are the exact same "fixes" that have been done twice already. Raise the age of eligibility, increase withholding, and now add "means testing" (with some people on the Dem side). 

What happened before when the congress enacted these fixes to take us past the "baby boomer bubble" they built up huge surpluses in the phony lock-box.  But basically what these "fixes" amounted to was a tax increase. So what did the then Dem congress do? For every $1 in increase they got, they raised spending another $1.25 or more. IOW, they spent the fix and we were right back where we started.

So today, my position is that there should be no more "fixes" to SS, particularly in that vein, until congress can actually demonstrate by real deeds some fiscal responsibility.

IOW they need to cut some other programs first. They can even start in SS with the fraudulent SSDI program.  And in saying cuts, I mean real damn cuts and not the phony BS of cutting "expected spending" out to 10 years down the road.

When they do that I will support some real SS reform. But personally the real reform that we actually need is to draw a bright line at people at age 50. Eliminate the program for everyone under 50 and continue it for those above. That is what they did for the retirement program at my old company when they changed it to a cash balance.

But, we will never see any of this happen. What we will see is runaway inflation, a barter economy under the table, and collapse.

Posted by: Vic at July 27, 2011 06:07 AM (M9Ie6)

81 Spellchecker: Type in "Tea Party", result "racist"

Posted by: cherry π at July 27, 2011 06:10 AM (OhYCU)

82 When I type "conservative", it says "Not Found"

Posted by: cherry π at July 27, 2011 09:59 AM (OhYCU)

Hmm. It must be searching Congress.

Posted by: Long-time Commenter, First-time Reader at July 27, 2011 06:10 AM (Jbj03)

83 Posted by: Soap MacTavish at July 27, 2011 10:07 AM (vbh31)

"Time in transit" is a huge deal at UPS. People get fired for holding loads. It is possible that there are problems with that particular load, but the schedules are based on moving loads every day, so holding loads would cause a ripple through the system that would have significant consequences.

I'm not questioning your friend's honesty, but is he a feeder supervisor? a hub supervisor?

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at July 27, 2011 06:16 AM (LH6ir)

84 Posted by: Soap MacTavish at July 27, 2011 10:00 AM (vbh31)

In counterpoint, I ordered a laptop for my son yesterday and it is getting delivered this morning. And I didn't opt for express shipping either. Standard UPS.

Posted by: Gregory of Yardale at July 27, 2011 06:18 AM (PLvLS)

85 If I order something on line, I generally get a UPS tracking number and a link in the confirming email. You can track an item as it moves across the country. UPS even sent a truck over the George Washington Bridge at 4PM on a weekday. That's dedication to schedule.

Posted by: fluffy has odd hobbies at July 27, 2011 06:26 AM (4Kl5M)

86 Close 75% of foreign bases, bring our people home and throw the illegals out of the US. Then come talk to me about my SS. If you don't do those things first, you'd better come armed.

Posted by: SurferDoc at July 27, 2011 06:31 AM (STdkO)

87 Wait, I though Yelena had secretly married Carlos, the mexican drug lord media mogul. Shit, you miss a day and you totally lose the thread!

Posted by: joncelli at July 27, 2011 06:38 AM (RD7QR)

88 Sigh. That'll teach me to snark before coffee.

Posted by: joncelli at July 27, 2011 06:39 AM (RD7QR)

89 84

Posted by: Vic at July 27, 2011 10:07 AM (M9Ie6)

SS is not an entitlement program. It is a flawed insurance policy though. It takes monetary contributions in from employees and employers and supposedly saves them in a lockbox. It was my money that was put in it over the years, and I want it back as promised. SS reforms are needed, but the bargain should be kept with the funds collected. All SS contracts should be honored based terms and conditions existing on the date of enrollment, your first payroll deduction and employer contribution, and any changes to be made should not affect those guarantees. Have you ever heard of a business contract that can be changed in midstream arbitrarily because the financial situation changed? Nope.

Either payout as promised or default the whole program, period.

Posted by: MisterMoney at July 27, 2011 06:45 AM (wN82N)

90 we can call it "Summer of Chump"?
We all know you meant Chimp, racist!

Unless you meant Bush, then it's okay.

Posted by: maureen dowd's keybroad [not a typo] at July 27, 2011 06:50 AM (oUG6f)

91 Just turned on beck, he's warning that the coming depression will be blamed on the republicans and the tea party.  yawn

Posted by: curious the confused at July 27, 2011 06:57 AM (k1rwm)

92 Flat Tax, 15% no deductions whatsoever, corporate and capital gains tax at the same rate. no SS no Medicaid/Medicare no Public Aid and i repeat no decutions for anyone, any company or any group, anyone and everyone pays the 15% government and economy fixed... my bill is in the mail. (i like to simplify things, because they need to be)

Posted by: Shoey at July 27, 2011 06:57 AM (jdOk/)

93 SS is very important.    Where else are we going to borrow?

Posted by: guess who? at July 27, 2011 06:58 AM (k1rwm)

94 Posted by: Soap MacTavish at July 27, 2011 10:47 AM (vbh31)

Not a problem. Just tell your friend that an old feeder supervisor says to shut up, get the paperwork correct, and build better loads.

UPS will add a fuel surcharge if necessary, but they won't jeopardize the speed of the system. My bet is that something else is causing the problem.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at July 27, 2011 06:59 AM (LH6ir)

95 Have you ever heard of a business contract that can be changed in midstream arbitrarily because the financial situation changed? Nope.

Yes, that happens every time you go into bankruptcy court.

Besides, it doesn't really matter what you call the program for my point. Why cut off people who have actually contributed while at the same time you are funding the proles who have leeched off the system for years and have no intention of making the program solvent anyway.

basically what they want is a tax increase for some or most and a reduction in benefits for most. After which all they will do is increase spending again. 

Posted by: Vic at July 27, 2011 07:01 AM (M9Ie6)

96

96

SS is absolutely an entitlement program, i've explained why so many times to so many people i'm tired of spouting it, suffice to say, look up the Law - S.S. is legally classified as an entitlement program, that payroll tax you pay is not what you think it is...

Posted by: Shoey at July 27, 2011 07:03 AM (jdOk/)

97 "the truth is that never before has the ratio of the proposed debt ceiling to the tax receipt ratio been as high as it is now. At nearly 6 times, this means that the top line (forget bottom line) cash inflows into the Treasury are 6 times lower than the current debt ceiling. And following the upcoming $2.5 trillion this number will surge to almost 8 times. So please ignore the next "pundit" who is complaining about the hypocrisy of not agreeing to an outright debt ceiling hike this time"  link

Posted by: guess who? at July 27, 2011 07:16 AM (k1rwm)

98

Don't worry everyone, I have uncovered Obama's plan.  We're all good now.

http://make-everything-ok.com/

Posted by: Heralder at July 27, 2011 07:21 AM (/Mxso)

99 Sounds like Debt Ceiling has too many anchor babies in the cast for me to enjoy the show ...

Posted by: No Whining at July 27, 2011 07:37 AM (HmCnI)

100 It's just what was passed along to me. My understanding is that it's a cost-of-fuel issue. As I sated, this is just anecdotal. Your mileage may vary.
Posted by: Soap MacTavish at July 27, 2011 10:47 AM

Fuel costs are borne by the carriers hired to do the loads. UPS has a set rate that they'll pay to brokerages who book the teams, and they have a lot of criteria that many carriers can't meet. If he's saying it's a fuel cost issue, it's because the qualified carriers won't cover the loads for what UPS is paying. They might be waiting for full trucks rather then shipping LTL because I haven't seen requests for teams lately.


Posted by: kbdabear at July 27, 2011 07:39 AM (so1xa)

101 Have you ever heard of a business contract that can be changed in midstream arbitrarily because the financial situation changed? Nope.

Either payout as promised or default the whole program, period.

Posted by: MisterMoney at July 27, 2011 10:45 AM (wN82N)

Yes, it is known as bankruptcy.

Posted by: Vashta.Nerada at July 27, 2011 08:00 AM (jqLfq)

102 FTR, student loans survive a bankruptcy.  Not sure what else survives a bankruptcy but once the government took over the loans and bush made them non expunge able, well you have them as your life's partner.

Posted by: curious at July 27, 2011 08:35 AM (k1rwm)

103 There is a surprise coming I believe, that will show how expertly we were played but the relief that everyone will feel at not being doomed after all, will keep us from seeing it.  But the politicians will have won none the less.

Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at July 27, 2011 09:11 AM (jx2j9)


After All That.  I'm expecting something along the lines of...

"IT'S A COOKBOOK!!!!!"

Posted by: Paladin at July 27, 2011 08:58 AM (YNPwP)

104 ...if investors ever find a viable altnernative to US Treasury debt before we get our fiscal house in order, we are well and truly boned beyond redemption. Our reprieve is due to luck, not skill.

All the more reason to take the horrible-tasting medicine now, instead of trying to put it off for later, like many others seem to want to do.

Posted by: Blacque Jacques Shellacque at July 27, 2011 09:09 AM (1rHeD)

105 There was a post earlier that said that they suspected that there was something big under the cover that wasn't being discussed. I'll tell you what that is.

The stock market has a very simple factor at the heart of its operation: prices rise or fall so that the amount of money taken out by sellers (and brokers) is equal to the amount of money put in by buyers.

A bull market occurs when fewer shares of stock are offered for sale than people are trying to buy. A bear market occurs when more people are trying to sell stock than are trying to buy.

Since about 1990 the predominant direction of the stock market has been up. That tells us that sellers of stock have absorbed large amounts of money which has flowed into the market.  In the two major market crashes since 1990 - the post 9/11 crash and the 2008 crash large amounts of money were suddenly taken out of the market - since the amount of money out of the market equals the amount going into the market the attempt to sell large amount s of stock caused prices to plummet. (You may recognize the simple law of supply and demand at work here.)

Indeed the post 1990 rise in the market is pretty much unprecedented. What could have caused huge amounts of money to flow into the market since that time? The answer, of course, is 401K plans. The 401K plans have buoyed the market up since 1990 and fueled the recoveries after the two stock market crashes.

On average every year since 1990 the American middle class has put 40 billion dollars into 401k plans. Each year since 1990 the stock market has created 40,000 new millionaires. This is as the principle at the start of this post predicts. The amount of money out of the stock market equals the amount flowing into it. 40,000 times one million equals 40 billion.

Your money has not been 'invested in the stock market' your retirement money has bought ownership of US companies. Our ownership of those companies is not managed by us (by law)  - it is managed by 'professional managers' so that we have no control of the companies we 'own'. Your retirement money has made 840,000 new millionaires over the last 21 years - they have all of your retirement funds. Do you think they are going to give them back when you retire?

When less 401K money is flowing into the market in a few years than is flowing out (people retiring - attempting to cash out their 401K plans. Baby Boomers - remember them?) the stock market can only head in one direction - as the fundamental principle tells us that is down.

 All the Baby Boomers have bought high - they are about to sell low - that is the classic prescription for losing money in the stock market.

The 401K was designed from the start to transfer wealth from the middle class to the rich. The game plan has always been for the rich to buy back their stock when the market crashes. You know - buy low - sell high. Bottom line the rich wind up with most of our retirement money and most of the stock - the middle class wind up with the usual pocket full of mumbles.

Posted by: An Observation at July 27, 2011 09:22 AM (ylhEn)

106 Monty, this is your best. Post. Evah.

Posted by: Mister Christopher at July 27, 2011 09:49 AM (cjGZv)

107 My order goes into a black hole between WA and Hodgkins, Ill.

Sounds like your stuff is being shipped via UPS Ground, which typically goes by rail if a long distance is being covered. Hodgkins is a major transfer point for TOFC service.


Posted by: Blacque Jacques Shellacque at July 27, 2011 10:02 AM (1rHeD)

108 Posted by: kbdabear at July 27, 2011 11:39 AM (so1xa)

Completely incorrect.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at July 27, 2011 10:53 AM (LH6ir)

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