1 I'll getback to ya on that. Busy right now with a bitchy somebody.

2 California: Holding back the tide of reason by force of sheer stupidity.

3 Hi CAC thanks for the post
I agree that 65R is a bit... optimistic

but 60R is definitely within reach

4 if we win all of the light red states except for NY, CT, NJ, MN and MI (which would be huuuuuge leaps for us) then we'd have 60R

5 oh and by my reckoning, HI is only possible if Linda Lingle runs, and she is, well, rather squishy RINO-y to begin with

6 You know, in spite of the fact that CA is broke, the state is still hiring people. They haven't stopped and don't plan to. This state makes the word malaise seem... inadequate.

7 Va is flipping to R for sure

8 fap fap fap fap...ungh!

9 and WV would be tough - we just lost the election there in 2010, who would step up to take on Manchin in 2012?

10 NM could actually elect a repub this time if they run the right person instead of Steve Pearce.

11

The map is wrong because New York State already voted in Satan not once but twice. Chuck Schumer and Hillary Clinton. 

12 Be ready to fap yourself bloody.

I was born ready.

*retrieves  limited edition bottle of jergens and gold leaf plated kleenex*

 Let's do this.

13

Washington state... we have the weaker of our two retard Senators running for reelection and it is still painted blue.

It makes me weep.

14 Netanyahu/West 2012

15

This is the equivelant of a tsunami hitting your penthouse on the 43rd floor.

I'm happy that you knuckle dragging mouth breathers have finally recognized the stature to which I have been elevated to due to my superior intellect, education and upbringing.

Now if you'll fetch me a hot rum toddy and my smoking jacket, I may not box you about the ears for being an impertinent twit!

 

16

#6

Theoretically if Lautenberg croaks (lets be realistic here), NJ opens up. Michigan is far more shakey than you give it credit, Jeff, and NY could be very likely if dickhead Pataki declared).

Again, speaking in never-in-a-trillion-years hypotheticals.

17 yeah, NY going red is a big stretch for sure
and if it did for some bizarre reason go red, it would be with a guy like Giuliani, who has his squishy moments

18 Va will go red. No way is the Eyebrow saddled with Bammy going to win.

19 I think we can beat Gilly the "hot Senator" here in NY if the NY-GOP can find a halfway decent candidate.

So yeah, NY stays blue.

20 Satan at 50/50? Pff, he gets a landslide in San Francisco.

21 Michigan is far more shakey than you give it credit

but who would take on Stab-me-now?  Michigan is at best a purple state and it has to be the right candidate

22 I've never understood how a state like Montana can have so many Dems, you'd think it'd be a great state for Republicans.

Also, when my Dad and I went to Sturgis last year, we swung by Idaho and damn.... I could swear that state is more Mexican than fking CA.

23 Don't forget there's a Senate election in Delaware, CAC.

24 oh if Lautenberg croaks then would Christie be the guy appointing the replacement?  now that would be awesome

"Tonight we mourn the passing of a great American, Frank Lautenberg, and to replace him I have decided to clone myself and command my clone to serve in the Senate"

25 We can thank the fucking WA tea party and Sarah Palin for the blue. We were ^this close too.

26 hey could New Mexico's hottie MILF governor be thinking of running for Senate?
now I'd give a lot of 'donations' to that cause

27 Yes, there are some of us here in California, though we're obviously a small minority. At least I'll have front-row seats (and the escape route from the bay area already mapped and routed) for when the state collapses and everybody on the other side of the bay (Oakland) don't get their monthly check.

I can see the Soviet Union from my house (at least, when the fog doesn't obscure Berkeley).

28

Interesting factoid of election history- the largest senate majority ever was during the Great Depression, when the Democrats held 76 of 96 Seats from 1937 to 1939. Republicans in that period held only 16.

Democrats in fact held over 69 seats from 1935-1939.

29 7 Va is flipping to R for sure

Is it going to be someone other than George Allen?  doesn't VA have a deeper R bench than that?

30 would Christie be the guy appointing the replacement? It would be funny if the replacement was done based on his campaign promises. "Well, he said he was a fiscal conservative, and I know where to get some of those..."

31 24 I've never understood how a state like Montana can have so many Dems, you'd think it'd be a great state for Republicans.

University towns (Missoula). The rest of the state is conservative and sparsely populated.

32 Is that an impeachment quality majority? 'Cause that'd be nice.

33 oh and NV is going to be a tough R hold, esp. considering it's for the rest of Ensign's term with a guy who wasn't elected for the job

34 30 Yes, there are some of us here in California, though we're obviously a small minority. At least I'll have front-row seats (and the escape route from the bay area already mapped and routed) for when the state collapses and everybody on the other side of the bay (Oakland) don't get their monthly check.

I can see the Soviet Union from my house (at least, when the fog doesn't obscure Berkeley).

Posted by: DarkFlounder at May 20, 2011 09:00 PM (eA5TH)

Ha, my Dad and I have discussed such routes, maybe we should compare notes. =P

35 Why did that last post go the fuck to sleep?

36 CAC, what's your take on NY-26?

37

#26

And notice how blue it is right next to uberblue Maryland.

Easiest prediction of 2012- WA,CA,MD,DE,VT,RI senate seats will not flip to the Republicans, regardless.

That happens and we are looking at a 1980-sized win in the Presidential race for Generic Republican/ X

38 Everyone has a fantasy. Right?

discuss

39 University towns (Missoula). The rest of the state is conservative and sparsely populated.

Posted by: Barbarian at May 20, 2011 09:01 PM (EL+OC)

Ah, so same story as pretty much everywhere else huh? It's like a cancer...

40 It's like a cancer...

Stage V.

41 Okay, I didn't read the comments (heh), but Dr. K. on Fox said Cain doesn't stand a chance and will just pull votes from Bachman who also doesn't stand a chance...in his view.

I'm still leaning toward Cain.

42 Yes, there are some of us here in California, though we're obviously a small minority. At least I'll have front-row seats (and the escape route from the bay area already mapped and routed) for when the state collapses and everybody on the other side of the bay (Oakland) don't get their monthly check.

Posted by: DarkFlounder at May 20, 2011 09:00 PM (eA5TH)

Reminder to blue-state morons - YOU HAVE TO FUCKING VOTE. Don't make excuses. California has been close enough on several major issues and elections that higher turnout could have swung the vote.

I keep hearing people say their vote doesn't matter - only if you sit on your ass and don't vote.

43 Is that an impeachment quality majority? 'Cause that'd be nice. Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at May 20, 2011 09:01 PM (DAEhL) Since it's the Senate, we only need 51.

44 It's all a moot point. After 6 PM tomorrow, Democrats will have inherited the Earth. Heh.

Posted by: Soap MacTavish at May 20, 2011 08:52 PM (vbh31)

Heh, ayup!

45

#36

Nevada isn't going to be tough.

Ensign resigned early enough that it won't kill a half-decent Republican's chances.

So long as a candidate whose name isn't also a mathematical term or an anagram of Nagel can't get herself in, we are good.

46 Brandon, we need to see more pics from your flickr photo stream! Nice!

47 mmmmmm, pudding.

48 Okay, I didn't read the comments (heh), but Dr. K. on Fox said Cain doesn't stand a chance and will just pull votes from Bachman who also doesn't stand a chance...in his view. I'm still leaning toward Cain. Posted by: Jane D'oh at May 20, 2011 09:04 PM (UOM4 How does that even factor? Does Dr. K not understand that after the convention they're not going to be running against each other any more? Or is he suggesting that they'll give us another McCain because they'll split the primaries?

49

OMG...You said the Magic word...."Pudding"

Dip...Dip...Dip!

I have Pudding Withdraw!

_{[imaginary squatting taking place in front of monitor with pants around ankles]} 

50 Oliver Willis's Shoe Shine Boy@46,

But the GOP still has McCain, Grahamnesty, Snowe, Collins, and probably a few more "principled" members. It needs to be an idiot-proof number. I'm guessing we need at least 110 Republican Senators.

51 Well, I'm off to read.

After coming home finding a dried, dead, snake on the garage floor after my husband removed his sleeping bag and stuff from the wire shelves, (and he said it may have been in his stuff when he returned from the last camp out a few weeks ago...and got squished).....I need a palate cleanser, like a campy Southern novel.

52

Netanyahu/West 2012

Oh girl!!!! Can you imagine??? Holy effing shit.

53

@53

Check That!.......115 Republican Senators!

54 Greg hardest hit. Cordially...

55 Florida, Virginia, Missouri, Montana, Wisconsin, and Ohio at least

no R losses.  That means at least 53 Rs, maybe / probably a few more
 
it's a Done Deal......

56 My theory:  The Texas GOP is going to nominate some RINO tard, and the Democrat (maybe Bill White) will campaign to the right of the RINO (like Bill tried against Perry).  Democrats take the KBH seat.

57

Posted by: CAC at May 20, 2011 09:05 PM (NtCWV)

I hope you are right but I do tend to panic about these things

58 I will be so glad to see Claire "mom voice" McCaskill go down.  That bitch has been in politics since I've lived here.  I'm praying for her defeat.

59 The easiest prediction of the election cycle is that nobody can predict shit about any election anywhere when we're 18 months away from Election Day and barely have a candidate pool, let alone nominees.

60 Va is flipping to R for sure Is it going to be someone other than George Allen? doesn't VA have a deeper R bench than that? We like George Allen just fine, Chemjeff.

61 (The seats in blue are, lets face it, never going to flip save for Satan himself running in them as a Dem, and even then it is 50/50). Are you kidding? Satan would win by an even higher margin than usual.

62 So, when we gettin' nakeed?

63 If this country re-elects Barky McPrissypants, will Israel take Christians as immigrants into their country?  I'd go there and face certain doom by the muzzies, than stay here and witness my country go down the toilet under the "leadership" of the anti-Christ (either Soros, or his puppet, Barky).

64

For VA from VA:

Its not that R's dont have a good bench (we are currently 8R/3D in the House), its just that R's all have "set for life" spots or tough defenses already. My Congressman (Wittman, R-1st) would (IMO) make a great Senator, but he's CFL (the D's got a 30 year-old crazy leftist woman with a bunch of dodgy fb pictures to run against him in '10 [this despite Williamsburg a pinko college town in the district]) and doesn't want to take the risk. Ditto for the other safe R Congressmen except Cantor (who wants to be Speaker, LOL).  The n00bs (Griffith (9th, coal country), Hurt (5th, Charlottesville/Piedmont), and Rigell (2nd, Virginia Beach) have tough races as it is and aren't positioned for a Senate run.

As for others, McDonnell is Governor (WHERE IS MY PRIVATISED VAL-U-RITE ALREADY!) and so he will stay (although VA's 1-term rule might make him a future candidate), Cuccinelli wants to be governor (DBSPR NOVA hates him so he won't be), and Bolling is meh.  Thus, we have Allen, macaca and all.

65

I have a question.  What does "Open Thread" mean?  That may sound stupid, but I see it on Hot Air all the time, and it seems that you can't comment there unless you are registered, so "Open Thread" there is misleading.  You just used that term here, where apparently anyone can comment, so what does it actually mean? 

 

66 55 Oh yeah, Pennsylvania is turning.

I hope you are right but you also have to realize that Obama is going to be campaigning heavily and frequently in PA, unlike a place like, say, NE or MT, so I think the Obama-factor makes it harder for us in PA

67

@66

Right Now Baby!

68

I think we can beat Gilly the "hot Senator" here in NY if the NY-GOP can find a halfway decent candidate.

Hey, I have this friend named Dede...you'll like her as much as you like me!

69 After coming home finding a dried, dead, snake on the garage floor after my husband removed his sleeping bag

Makes you wonder how many snakes stayed in the camping gear...

OT: The programmer at Retroplex Channel has a sense of humor. They're showing Oh, God! and Oh, God II tonight.

70

So, when we gettin' nakeed?

What?  I thought we already were.  Well, color me embarassed.

 

71 So, when we gettin' nakeed? We already were, until the adult baby thread. After i finished hurling, i got dressed. just not in the mood, not even after bibi spec ops pics.

72 so what does it actually mean? Posted by: Lisa at May 20, 2011 09:13 PM (3AnLn) You are free to post pictures of your boobies. Or your tits. Or your eider ducks. Or your loons.

73 69 I have a question.  What does "Open Thread" mean?  That may sound stupid, but I see it on Hot Air all the time, and it seems that you can't comment there unless you are registered, so "Open Thread" there is misleading.  You just used that term here, where apparently anyone can comment, so what does it actually mean?
Posted by: Lisa at May 20, 2011 09:13 PM (3AnLn)

It means you need to shut up and show us your tits.

74 Bob Saget with a can of cheezwiz: "Democrats take the KBH seat."

No way. Democrats can't even win dogcatcher in most places right now. Texans are getting pretty good at spotting "conservative" Donks. Now, split the Right vote with a Libertarian and that could be a strategy.

75 We like George Allen just fine, Chemjeff.

I'm glad you like George Allen, and I'm not a Virginian, just from my POV I think it would be nice to see fresh blood in the Senate

76

I have a question.  What does "Open Thread" mean? 

Means you can talk about anything you little heart desires.

77 CAC-

What is the project for?  What is AVASTIN?  And what exactly is all over her?  They are very cool pics.

Too many questions? (See what I did there - and here?)

78 It means you need to shut up and show us your tits. Posted by: The War Between the Undead States HIDE!!!!!!!! Suzy and the anime pillow BOTH heard that!!! Hide NOW!!!!!

79

Good grief, this thunderstorm headed here practically reaches from Dallas to Shreveport.

80 Lisa, now pay no attention to these AoSHQ ruffians, they don't speak for all of us.

Open Thread merely means that you can post on any topic that you feel like.

And then, after a while, once  you've become comfortable with the ways and mannerisms of the HQ, then you can show us your tits.

81

The R's may have it in Michigan, Stabenow is not a shoe-in by any means, a strong candidate will sweep her aside easily. And there just may be one lurking in the west side of the state. Governor Rick is droping in the polls, but as the results come in, he will get a bounce, and he can help the cause. Keep watching.

 

82 once you've become comfortable with the ways and mannerisms of the HQ, then you can show us your tits. Awwww, our lil chemjeff is learning!!!! way to shmoooze!

83 Its not that we like Allen, its just that he's all we've got (who doesn't have very good reasons not to run for Senate). Either that or a kook teapartyist named Radtke who is a gaffe machine.

84

World supposed to End tomorrow......Let See them Titties?

Ever seen a WeinerSnitchel hiding in Tall Grass?

85

Open thread means any topic. Of course, 'round these parts, 100 comments usually means that, too, but that's not important right now.

When Ace says "Open Blog" he means that certain cob loggers are now free to post at will. Some of them have their own accounts to post under, but others share the "Open Blogger" account and are usually kept...restrained, shall we say.

 

86 FWIW: NY-26- it looks (from the city) like the MBM is trying to swing things to the Dem... they are running against the Ryan budget, which may get traction. If the RINO apparatus upstate hasn't got the message out that Medicare is about to go broke, then the Dem (Hochul) has a 50/50 chance (in a Red district.)  The Rep (Corwin) is also having trouble with a false-flag 'tea party' candidate.

87 HIDE!!!!!!!! Suzy and the anime pillow BOTH heard that!!! Hide NOW!!!!!

Yeah, well, at least THEY'RE not stingy with the boobehs.  (Lisa.)

88 Here in MI, Stabenow is polled as 'vulnerable', but I believe that poll had people that probably wont be running(Pete Hoekstra, and fmr Sec of State Land). I do think we do have a shot of getting her out though....need somebody to step up.

89 After Nevada went for Reid I started to lose hope. Why must I be taunted with these threads?!

90 If we have any chance of winning any election, those of us that are able to, need to sign up to be  precinct witness (I'd say _{poll watcher}, but hell, I don't trust any of you with that job). 

We need to make sure the voting is fair. 

We really need to also get out the vote on LOCAL elections.

I really wish we were as well organized as the Dems when it comes to this stuff.

91

I think a majority is for sure, we can also pick up much more seats if we get competitive like we did in Nov in OH, PA, & other swing states. NY is a stretch but if Guliani or Pataki ran it's a winnable race because Kristin "Fake Bitch" Gilibrand is not as unstoppable as Schumer is. I'd argue MI is very doable considering the massive GOP landlside there last year and Obama's bad approvals there. All in all, I say the Senate is ours but we can win more and maybe even contest for 60.

That said, Larry Sabato's group did a mathematical equation based on History and found the most likely scenario is...GOP +8 in the senate unless the economy improves.

92

If those goons keep beating Harry, He'll be dead by June.

 

93 Wait.  We didn't have to show our tits first thing?  Fuck. 

94

_{poll watcher}

Typing with one hand on the keyboard and one eye on the monitor, eh momma?

95

That said, Larry Sabato's group did a mathematical equation based on History and found the most likely scenario is...GOP +8 in the senate unless the economy improves.

Posted by: YRM (RIP Macho Man) at May 20, 2011 09:23 PM (UzBwz)

Whats this crazy talk?  Its improving everyday, look around, man!

96 Yes, 60R in the Senate is very doable for us.  We have to play our cards right and we can't take big risks with risky candidates like angle or o'donnell this time around.  that doesn't mean we have to squish out but it does mean we have to be smart.

97 Wait, I think I missed an obvious joke about a one-eyed poll watcher...

98

PA has Obama in the low 40s in approval, so do places like OH and FL, where Obama is being saved from a nationwide approval in the 30s is the west w/ swing states like NV, CO, NM & such giving him like 48% approvals, largely due to Hispanic loyalty to Obama though even among my people Obama's approvals have gone from the 70s to the low 50s and even w/ blacks his approvals went from the 90s to the 80s and if a Dem only gets in the 80s w/ blacks...he's toast.

99

#81

Avastin is a drug used in late stage cancer treatment. This project dealt with the FDA's jerking around on allowing/disallowing use for breast cancer- hence the latex appliances that appear on the model's nipples and which spread (much like the outline of the lymphatic system) across her body. The issue of Avastin and the FDA was made a political one last year when some suggested the FDA disallowed it since it would "cost too much" under Medicare post-Ocare.

We (my fiancee and two of her friends) also manipulated the model's makeup and hair, giving it a gradual overdone and thinning appearance (switching to long fake lashes and a wig). It took three months of planning and a 13 hour shoot (which I will never do again). Everyone was thoroughly burned out, but the result was fantastic. Whooole lot of latex and hot glue went into that green stuff though (and constructing the appliances took several all nighters).

 

100 How many no-chance candidates are going to be endorsed by Sarah Palin this go around?

101 Even if we don't win those Senate seats, what CAC's map says is that they have to defend all of those seats.  And if Obama doesn't feel that those states are important, they'll have to raise money on their own.

102 We really need to also get out the vote on LOCAL elections.

YES.  I'm committed to this now.  The good news is that in my metro area, only one state leg. district has a D rep.  The bad news (or opportunity) is that my new house lies in that district.  The D is going to be tough to defeat too, he is an old-school conservative D, not a fire-breathing liberal.

103
I keep hearing people say their vote doesn't matter - only if you sit on your ass and don't vote.

Posted by: Merovign, Dark Lord of the Sith at May 20, 2011 09:04 PM (bxiXv)

I do vote, but in terms of Republican primaries, the nominees are generally chosen long before I get to have my say. That was my meaning.

Rest assured, I vote.

104 Can we please get some people in the senate that can actually put dem balls in the vise?  A few more actual conservatives...that is all

105 Satan running would increase the Democratic turnout.

The reason the odds are so lopsided is because this is the Class of 2006, a big Democratic year.  2014 is lopsided, too, as 2008 was even bigger. 

106 Rest assured, I vote.

But I think it takes more than that, from what I've gleaned from this blog.  We have to get in touch with our local Republican establishment and volunteer, or something, or otherwise influence who will run in which race.

In the district I'm moving into, I saw a debate between the two candidates last year - the Republican candidate (who ended up losing) is a nice guy, but he was - shall we say - a little light in the loafers.  The D candidate clearly outmatched him in firepower.  And to top it off it is the most urban district in my area.  So I don't want to see this same R guy try to run again, because it will be another disaster.

107 109 Can we please get some people in the senate that can actually put dem balls in the vise?  A few more actual conservatives...that is all

That doesn't work in some states. Like WA.

108 You ain't going to believe the shit Michelle was spewing today. 

Read it all (it is all lies), but read the phrases I've put in bold.  Don't those phrases scare you?  She isn't talking about 4 more years, is she?!  I REALLY don't think she is.  I truly believe she is talking about destroying America (or making it into a Lib Land which is the same thing).:

ABC News:

“Even in the toughest moments, when it seems like all is lost, and everybody is wringing their hands, and calling, worrying and calling -- what's going on, what's he doing, what's going on -- IÂ’m one of those people -- Barack Obama never loses sight of the end goal,” Mrs. Obama said at the annual WomenÂ’s Leadership Forum National Issues Conference in Washington, D.C. today. “ He never lets himself get distracted by the chatter and the noise, even if it comes from some of his best supporters.  He just keeps moving forward.”

Mrs. Obama said in the moments when everyone is sweating and worried about the possibilities of a bill not passing or negotiations falling through that her husband keeps his cool thinking about the end game.

“Barack always reminds me that weÂ’re playing a long game here. He reminds me that change is slow.  He reminds me that change doesnÂ’t happen all at once.”

“Now more than ever before, we need to finish what weÂ’ve started and we need your help.  We need all of you to be with us for the next phase of our journey. And I am not going to kid you, because I never do, I said this in the first campaign it is going to be long.  It is going to be hard.  ItÂ’s designed that way.  And there will be plenty of twists and turns along the way.”

"He works so very hard every day,” she appealed to the crowd. “It’s unbelievable, starting first thing in the morning every day and going late into the night, hunched over briefings, reading every single word of every single memo he gets, making notes, writing questions, making sure he knows more than the people briefing him, because all of those wins and losses are not wins and losses for him. They’re wins and losses for the folks whose stories he carries with him, the folks he worries about and prays about before he goes to bed at night."

109

My Rankings

Absolute GOP: IN, TN, MS, WY, UT

Likely GOP: ME, MA, VA, ND, NE, MT, AZ, NV (Possible +4)

Tossups: PA, OH, MI, FL, MO, WI, NM (Possible +7)

Likely Dem: CT, NY, NJ, DE, WV, MN, WA, HI

Absolute Dem: RI, VT, MD, CA

I don't see the Dems competing for any of our seats except maybe the Nevada and Massachusetts seats and even then it's tough w/ Heller being the incumbent now and Brown being the most popular figure in MA right now.

110 "He works so very hard every day,” she appealed to the crowd.

Yeah, you have no idea what it takes to get a chip-shot in from 100 feet!

111

Means you can talk about anything you little heart desires.

Jewells45,  Thank you.  I didn't realize a person could get embarrassed over the internet, but those other answers made my face turn red, except for that really detailed one which made my eyes glaze over like they do when men talk about every car they ever owned.

I live in PA, and I don't really think Obama coming here all the time is going to sway too many people.  We have one of the oldest populations in the country because no one wants to stay here.  There are commercials on about how the shale thing is bringing business back to life.  I have a friend who hauls heavy equipment and he has more than doubled his business the past year or so.  The liberals are trying to shut it down by saying it is contaminating the water.  I think people want jobs more than they want Obama, but we'll see.

112

Yeah, It sux when you have to choose between who is on the ballot, and MY gripe, unapposed.

And maybe if you don't mark it, you ballot is thown out. 

113

#114

If Thompson really jumps in into Wisconsin, WI moves to likely GOP, probably ahead of Virginia and Montana. Open seats with a strong GOP contender are usually very good for us, particularly if the Dem field is exceptionally weak.

114 But I think it takes more than that, from what I've gleaned from this blog.  We have to get in touch with our local Republican establishment and volunteer, or something, or otherwise influence who will run in which race.

I did that in 2008, spent time and money on our Senate hopeful all to be squashed in the last minute by the Sasquatch from Wasilla.

115

Posted by: Barbarian at May 20, 2011 09:29 PM (EL+OC)

people are going to get pissy about that comment but it's a good point people refuse to accept. that said, she did endorse winners as well especially in the House side of things but it's easier to win a House race then a Senate race. But we gained 6 last time around and almost more, if we do just as well we'll have the Senate & then some and I think we can win huge especially if 2012 becomes 1980 all over again.

116

#96-  This is the reason the MSM is announcing how the economy is going great guns right now, no facts just statements, tonight the local ABC station was cheerleading the tremendous improvement.

I guess Happy Days Are Here Again

117

Posted by: YRM (RIP Macho Man) at May 20, 2011 09:36 PM (UzBwz)

I would put MO into the "lean R" category - MO isn't a swing state anymore, it is definitely more conservative than in the past

And I would put MN in the "solid D" category simply because I don't see who would run for the Senate seat - the only likely challengers are Pawlenty and Coleman, the former is going to be occupied and the latter is damaged goods at this point

118 Posted by: CAC at May 20, 2011 09:28 PM (NtCWV)


That's really cool.  Mighty fine work there. 

I showed my husband and he said, 'Damn, it looks like the innards of a real boob. Oh look, she changed looks.  Is it for boob cancer?''

I didn't tell him he was right

So even my hick husband understood your art.  Seriously, that is high praise.

Amazing work.

119

Posted by: CAC at May 20, 2011 09:38 PM (NtCWV)

yeah I didn't have time to write it but if we add certain candidates to ceratin races, things change. I think if Linda Mcmahon runs again in CT it's very doable espc. w/ the DNC of CT's best guy already a Senator. Guliani.Pataki would make NY a possivle tossup, I know people will get pissed but Mike Castle could make DE winnable, and so on and so forth. But alas, it'll depend on who runs and what momentum they can generate.

120 I think people want jobs more than they want Obama, but we'll see.

god I hope you're right

121

Posted by: chemjeff at May 20, 2011 09:41 PM (QAJGa)

Maybe so, again these are just rankings off the top of my head they could change as we know more about the candidates and such.

122

Posted by: Barbarian at May 20, 2011 09:38 PM (EL+OC)

what do you mean?  you worked on Dino Rossi's campaign?

123 btw I forgot to put Texas in the Absolute GOP category

124 I think people want jobs more than they want Obama, but we'll see.

This is somewhat encouraging.

125

Posted by: Barbarian at May 20, 2011 09:46 PM (EL+OC)

oh please, let the youth of our nation find some sense

126 you worked on Dino Rossi's campaign?

Yes.

127

Posted by: Barbarian at May 20, 2011 09:47 PM (EL+OC)

WA comes off to me like a state that knows it needs to change (almost going for Dubya twice, almost having Rossi as Gov twice, almost adding a GOP senator last year) but just can't seem to do it. It's like there's just a little bit more people who want to stay on the worship gumbit side.

128 Claire McCaskill is out in Missouri in 2012. No doubt about it. The Republicans could run a shaved monkey (and probably will) and still win. My only regret is that Jimn Talent won't run again.

129

btw i'm in FL and God I want Nelson voted out, this time around we have better candidates then in 06 when Crist got elected to the Governor's office (we all know how that turned out) and yet Nelson easily beat Harris (who shouldn't have run anyways).

Nelson runs around talking himself up as a moderate but his record say otherwise and his approvals have FINALLY taken a hit down here. It's about damn time. But Dems in FL are amped up in their united hatred for Governor Scott who's got 50/50 approvals and is battling a RINO dominated FL Senate.

130

Thanks Momma.

Yeah I studied the anatomy of the lymph system to roughly replicate it. The breasts were the hardest to construct. We had to take measurements pre shoot of her breasts to get them to size perfectly, then putting them on took a half-hour each. Without the team Erinn helped to pull together this never would have made it beyond step one- and without her help in getting the damn pieces on the breasts (it took two sets of hands on each to get them to stick properly), never beyond the first set of images.

131 Yes.

do you really think Sarah Palin was the proximate reason for Rossi's loss?  could you really tell if there were that many conservatives refusing to vote for Rossi because of her endorsement of Didier?

132

Posted by: Palandine at May 20, 2011 09:49 PM (g7D8V)

I hope your right, that woman pisses me off. She's one of those "hey i'm a blue dog even though my record say otherwise" Dems that got in during the 06/08 waves.

133

Posted by: Palandine at May 20, 2011 09:49 PM (g7D8V)

I agree - from where I"m at in St. Joseph, I can't see much love for good ol' Claire, although I'm always in favor of fresh new people entering and not the same old pols from times past

Paladine are you in MO? what part?

134

we need 67!

 

oh yeah!

135 WA comes off to me like a state that knows it needs to change...

I think we have a shot at the Governorship next year. The Republican AG (McKenna) is polling pretty well against the Dem candidate.

We blew it in 2008 by not fully supporting Rossi from the get go. His run against Idiot Soccer Mom Patty Murray was very close. I believe he could have won if Palin would have endorsed him. There were a lot of hurt feelings in the Diddier camp.

136 do you really think Sarah Palin was the proximate reason for Rossi's loss?  could you really tell if there were that many conservatives refusing to vote for Rossi because of her endorsement of Didier?

Absolutely. Diddier refused to endorse Rossi and his supporters were pissed off.

137 putting them on took a half-hour each.


I can't imagine sitting there for a half hour while someone glued stuff on my boobies.  Is she a real model, or just a friend? 

Did you come up with the concept? 

138 from what I can tell about Claire, she seems fairly adept at managing both the far left loons who constitute her base, and yet to appear like she's somewhat reasonable to the rest of the state.  but during a campaign she's going to have to choose between the loons and the normal people and there is no doubt she will choose the loons.

139  There were a lot of hurt feelings in the Diddier camp.

Posted by: Barbarian at May 20, 2011 09:56 PM (EL+OC)

Which were of course utter horseshit because they lost badly, then repeatedly called Rossi a RINO for absolutely bullshit reasons (Didier wanted Rossi to literally kiss his ring and Rossi told him to fuck off, shut up, and help him beat Murray. Didier's ego mattered more, of course).

If I remember things correctly.

140
Absolutely. Diddier refused to endorse Rossi and his supporters were pissed off.

wow that really is too bad.  to think about getting a WA Senate seat...
oh well

so who is on tap for 2012?  please say it's not Rossi again

141

Chemjeff, I'm the only conservative woman in the city of St. Louis.

If it were just the politics, McCaskill would have a chance of winning. But she's dirty. That not paying $300,000 in taxes on her private jet is not going to sit well with the poor and middle class voters of Missouri. And again, the Missouri Republican Party is definitely the Stupid Party, but they put out good negative ads. They'll hang that around her neck like a millstone.

142

And I would put MN in the "solid D" category simply because I don't see who would run for the Senate seat - the only likely challengers are Pawlenty and Coleman, the former is going to be occupied and the latter is damaged goods at this point

Posted by: chemjeff at May 20, 2011 09:41 PM (QAJGa)

We just elected Mark "Googley-eyes" Dayton as Gov. and our dynamic duo in Senate is a woman worried about lead in toys being sold at garage sales and Stuart Smalley. Don't ever, ever, undestimate the idiocy of this state. 

143

#142

It was a hired model. I wouldn't put any of my friends through that hell (she had to spend much of the time with arms and legs outstretched to avoid the plastic/latex from getting stuck and the liquitex/surgical adhesive mix from melting off and sticking). 

I came up with the idea in mid-2010 when Avastin was a hot topic, and went ahead with it once the FDA decided to undo its previous murky decision in December of that year. We spent about two weeks looking for the right model (we wanted to imitate the look of an internet topless pin-up), another two weeks constructing and sizing, then the shoot. Image selection and photoshop took another week or so. Unfortunately it still isn't finished- I ran out of money to get the hard prints made and buy the frames. Hopefully it will be finished by early summer with enough $ to get it ready for a gallery proposal.

 

I thought a cool way of working with an eventual gallery show would be to compress all the images (it alternates between those on my flickr and the documents from the FDA) into a magazine format (hence the F.D.D.A rough test "cover" in the flickerstream). I could  run a limited-edition "magazine" printing of it to fund the proposal, but it is tough to find enough people who would be interested in spending $20 to stare at an art mag, even if it has a lot of breasts in it.

 

 

144 Serious rankings:

- The War Btw. The Undead States is correct that, of course, it's too fucking early to call anything for sure.  But here's the state of play as thing stand.

- First off, the GOP won't lose any seats.  The toughest hold, ironically enough, will not be MA (Brown will cruise) but rather NV.  Ensign really did us over in that one.  Thankfully Heller is a solid candidate who's likely to keep the seat.

- The following states mentioned as possibilities are likely pickups: ND, NE, MO (McCaskill was in trouble as is, and really torpedoed herself with the plane fiasco).  That's it for the EASY ones.  +3 baseline.

- Harder, but still a good chance: VA (Allen is not my ideal nominee but Kaine has as much baggage - this one will be decided by who wins the state's Presidential EVs), WI (if Thompson runs and the Tea Party doesn't act self-destructively stupid in seeking to deny him the nomination, it's his), FL (Nelson is tougher than he looks, but a good candidate plus the increasing R lean of the state takes him down), MT (Tester will not be easy to knock out either, but the GOP has put up their best possible candidate)

- NM is a harder race than the four mentioned above due to the tilt of the state, but if the GOP nominates Heather Wilson then there's a real chance.  Any other candidate (i.e. a "Tea Party" candidate) gets destroyed.  With Wilson I'd put the chances at 45%-50%.

- Sherrod Brown is way too liberal for the general tilt of OH, but right now I'd say he's heavily favored to win reelection.  He's popular (inexplicably IMO), and the state isn't exactly thrilled with Gov. Kasich at this point.  No idea who might run against him, either. Similarly, MI and PA are theoretically winnable races that we will lose for lack of a good candidate, plus strong headwinds in a Presidential year.  We're not taking either of these, IMO, but there's a small chance.

- These are NOT GOING TO HAPPEN, EVER: MN (Klobuchar is more popular than god), WV (ditto with Manchin - hell, even I like the job he's been doing, and never forget that this is still a Democratic state on all but the Presidential level), NY (no way is Gillibrand going down in NY during a Presidential year of all years), HI (if this were an off-year there might be a chance, as it is Obama's home state will come out big and make the difference), NJ, CT.

My guess is +5/+6 in the Senate, but +3 if the party nominates an unelectable Presidential candidate like Cain or Bachmann (and +1/+2 if we put up Palin, dear god).  Only if Obama implodes (which is not an impossible scenario at all) will our gains reach higher, and then to a ceiling of +9.

145 so who is on tap for 2012?  please say it's not Rossi again

Maria Cantwell (Former CEO Real Media) vs no one.that I'm aware of.

Barbarian 2012 !~

146 HI (if this were an off-year there might be a chance, as it is Obama's home state will come out big and make the difference)

Not even with Lingle?

147

Posted by: Barbarian at May 20, 2011 10:13 PM (EL+OC)

well then your moment of glory has arrived!  BARBARIAN 2012

148

Posted by: Jeff B. at May 20, 2011 10:10 PM (hIWe1)

no offense Jeff but you always put down our chances (WI Supreme Court Election)

149 >>>Not even with Lingle?

No, not even with Lingle.  HI voters aren't stupid -- they understand the difference between nominating a safe Republican to govern the state at home and sending one to Washington to affect national policy.  And HI is a Democratic state.  Moreover, the Obama-home state effect will act like a tidal wave. 

If Lingle runs, she loses 55%-45% at a minimum.  Especially if she's running against someone like Mazie Hirono. 

Sorry, it ain't happening.

150

Posted by: chemjeff at May 20, 2011 10:19 PM (QAJGa)

I think she can win but didn't she leave unpopular?

151

Posted by: Jeff B. at May 20, 2011 10:22 PM (hIWe1)

well HI is def going for Obama since they tend to be pro-incumbent and blue on top of that

152 >>>no offense Jeff but you always put down our chances (WI Supreme Court Election)

Tell me where I'm wrong, then?  And when you do, remember this: it's not enough to just point to opinion polls about Obama's approval rating in the state.  You need to talk to me about candidates.  Because candidate quality matters (as we learned in 2010 with NV, DE, CO, etc.)  That's why I'm pessimistic about taking down Sherrod Brown, for example: not only am I not all that certain that OH is going to be big pro-GOP territory in 2012 (my hope is that we eke out a win), I just don't see a candidate who can match up head-to-head against Brown.  Like, I hear people suggesting Ken Blackwell as a nominee.  Ken Blackwell?!?!?  The guy who lost 65-35 to Ted Strickland?  Nope.  We'd need a Rob Portman-type candidate to make it a race.

Same problem in PA.  Not only is it a hard lift in a Presidential year, the fact is that Casey is uncontroversial and reasonably popular, and meanwhile there isn't anyone on the PA bench who can threaten him.

153

158 >>>no offense Jeff but you always put down our chances (WI Supreme Court Election)

Tell me where I'm wrong, then?  And when you do, remember this: it's not enough to just point to opinion polls about Obama's approval rating in the state.  You need to talk to me about candidates. 

Id say Stabenow is in trouble, polled against 2 names that have hinted but not committed, shes under 50, and its not likely MI will turn out heavy FOR Oblowme in 12, so no coat tails for her.  Just a hunch from somebody on the ground.

154

Posted by: Jeff B. at May 20, 2011 10:26 PM (hIWe1)

read my previous comments, I said it depends on candidates we field and momentum, but approvals of the President will help/hurt a candidate just ask the many GOP losers of 06 and 08 or the Dem losers of 2010. (and btw Blackwell lost in OH that bad in 06 because the GOP Gov had a scandal problem and approvals in the freaking teens). but if the economy stays bad and we field good candidates we can have a great chance espc. in red states where blue dog dems have liberal records (like Nelson in Nebraska). but I just pointed out the fact you've been down on our chances and been wrong. But then again a conservative estimate on our chances is not bad either.

155 >>>Id say Stabenow is in trouble, polled against 2 names that have hinted but not committed, shes under 50, and its not likely MI will turn out heavy FOR Oblowme in 12, so no coat tails for her.  Just a hunch from somebody on the ground.

The saddest unheralded development in recent weeks on the Senatorial front (to me) was Thad McCotter bowing out as a possible Senate candidate.  As a Detroit-area conservative with some moderate credentials he would have given Stabenow a serious challenge and might even have been even money.  But the tale of the MI GOP, as everyone has pointed out over the last few weeks, is that they just can't find a decent candidate to run against Stabenow.  You can't put up a no-name candidate against her and just hope to win.

Man, I really wish McCotter had run.  I fucking LOVE that guy.

156 Whoever decided that EITHER seat in NY would flip to an R was drunk, retarded, or out of his mind.

Seriously.

157 I thought a cool way of working with an eventual gallery show would be to compress all the images (it alternates between those on my flickr and the documents from the FDA) into a magazine format (hence the F.D.D.A rough test "cover" in the flickerstream). I could  run a limited-edition "magazine" printing of it to fund the proposal, but it is tough to find enough people who would be interested in spending $20 to stare at an art mag, even if it has a lot of breasts in it.




Sounds like a really neat idea.  I bet you could find the people.  Especially because the topic effects so many people. 

With your creativity, it shouldn't be too hard.

158

I have always believed that most Americans were offended with the idea of foreigners or foreign countries injecting their opinions into American Politics. During the Clinton administration we had Chinese money laundering contributions to the Democratic party. George Soros (definately NOT and American nor is he interested in any of America's future) funded a new project called "MoveOn.Org". During the Obama campaign we had massive campaign contributions in myriad small amounts from un-named sources. For the last several elections we've had multiple instances of Felons voting and politicians sueing to have whole blocks of voters disenfranchised.  Today we have 25 million illegal immigrants, who are NOT American citizens, pay no taxes, and yet will vote in the next election cycle.

I believe that our election process has long been flawed, but the time has come to make some MAJOR election process changes, and I'm not talking about simply eliminating the Electorial College. That would only give cheaters a more direct route to stealing an election.

 I'm not sure what the answer is here. The founding fathers did NOT believe in 1man/1 vote. They thought you needed to be qualified to have an opinion. They ruled out slaves and discussed "land ownership" as a prerequiset to voting.  So what's the answer today? How can we improve the voting process and bring it back to Americans deciding our own future instead of the likes of a Make Believe Media and foreign contributors? National ID? Proof of Citizenship? Proof of having filed Tax Returns?

Ace, I'd like to see THAT discussion here please.

159 What kind of wuss needs lotion? And tissues? The only time I bother with them is when its time to wipe down the walls.

160

#163

Thanks again, momma.

We'll see what the future holds for it. I'd really like to get it physically out there.

161 I don't understand. My home state of Illinois is NOT turning red? Why?

...no fappage for me I guess...*sniff*