Ace of Spades HQ

September 11, 2011

Final Polling for NY-9 from PPP:
— CAC

Turner (R) 47% Weprin (D) 41%
More numbers per PPP's twitter:
37% in NY-9 say Israel 'very important' to their votes. They support Turner over Weprin 71-22.

Weiner's favorability in NY-9: 29/53. (So much for Weiner trying to run again for this district, eh?)

22% of Jewish voters in NY-9 approve of Obama's handling of Israel. 68% disapprove.

Turner's approval numbers: 45%/30%.

Weprin's: 39%/36%.

From @PPP:

Weprin actually has positive favorability numbers. If Dems lose this race blaming it on Weprin it is an excuse and ignores the bigger issues.

What is one of those bigger issues?

President Obama's approval rating in this district: 31%.

In fact per PPP, Obama would lose this district 42-46 to Romney and only edge Perry 44-43.

This, combined with the Magellan Poll giving the Republican a 5 point lead, and the Siena poll giving him a 6 point lead, should give us cautious confidence.
The finger pointing post-election amongst Democrats if Turner indeed pulls it off will be popcorn-worthy.

The moneyshot quote from Public Policy Polling:

One final note on the poll and what perhaps should concern Democrats most of all. 55% of voters in the district report having voted for Obama in 2008, which is the actual percentage of the vote he got in the district. Last year a lot of the races Democrats lost were because their voters didn't show up and the electorate was far more conservative than for a Presidential year. When you lose that way you can say, well, our voters will come back out in 2012 and we'll be fine. But there is no enthusiasm gap here. Obama voters are showing up in the same numbers they did in 2008. But only 65% of them are voting Democratic. That's a really big cause for concern.

Losing over a third of your "base" isn't even a really big cause for concern. Repeated elsewhere, it is a cause for pulling a LBJ.

My prediction, a viral video replay, and a link to help Turner all below. My Official Projection:
Turner 52% Weprin Grade Stupid 47% Other <1%

And of course go here to see how you can help Turner in the final push.

Note- if any of these numbers don't show up immediately on the PPP website, there is usually a delay between Jensen's tweets and the published poll. I have mocked PPP in the past, but they bring their A-game to their last minute polling and ask questions I really wished others would think of. Hats off to them for that.

Posted by: CAC at 06:24 PM | Comments (134)
Post contains 433 words, total size 3 kb.

1 Well this is good news.

Posted by: Johnny (John E.) at September 11, 2011 07:05 PM (nRTou)

2 Pudding is on standby.

Posted by: Doofus at September 11, 2011 07:06 PM (vD09P)

3 Sniff sniff Always hating on the blue dogs Rethugicants

Posted by: Navycopjoe aka uber palinista at September 11, 2011 07:08 PM (Sp2sM)

4 Moron meetup at 5 Boro on Austin St. (I'd propose a kosher place, but not sure where there is one open on a weekday evening in the district...)

Posted by: ParisParamus at September 11, 2011 07:11 PM (kfz40)

5 Whoa: @PPPPolls "Biggest concern for Dems in poll: no enthusiasm gap. This isn't Dems not showing up. It's Dems voting GOP: tinyurl.com/6xte73g" Ouch.

Posted by: Johnny (John E.) at September 11, 2011 07:11 PM (nRTou)

6 The LDS-Jewish alliance will get Romney to the White House!

Posted by: ParisParamus at September 11, 2011 07:12 PM (kfz40)

7 O/T but still about elections...has Mittsy switched parties while I wasn't looking?

Really, Mittsy, is running on saving SS from Perry really all you have?

Anyone saying they will still vote for him needs to really evaluate what that means.

He is a say anything, do anything, big government moderate. And 8 years of W was enough of that for me.

Posted by: Tha Hammer at September 11, 2011 07:13 PM (7WMGf)

8 Pudding! Pudding for everyone!

Posted by: ExurbanKevin at September 11, 2011 07:14 PM (s6hqS)

9 whoa

Posted by: chemjeff at September 11, 2011 07:14 PM (s7mIC)

10 Oh my God. This poll is an unmitigated disaster for Dems: @PPPPols "Obama approval with independents in NY-9 is 16% and he's below 50 with Dems at 46/38: tinyurl.com/6xte73g" Wow. 16% Indy Approval.

Posted by: Johnny (John E.) at September 11, 2011 07:15 PM (nRTou)

11 "Obama approval with independents in NY-9 is 16%" bwaaahahahahahahahahaha

Posted by: CAC at September 11, 2011 07:15 PM (JEVge)

12 Weprin is failing, Obama's approval ratings are failing, the economy is failing ... and liberals are high-fiving each other about Obama's speech on Thursday. Obama's like the musicians on the Titanic who played on as the ship went down. Only instead of playing an instrument he will be playing his voice and instead of the song being "Nearer My God to Thee" it will be "Dearer, Barack is Me" and instead of the Titanic it will be "40 years of Democratic rule" disappearing into the sea of reality. Tee hee!

Posted by: MaxMBJ at September 11, 2011 07:17 PM (deaac)

13 NY-9 shouldn't surprise anyone, but should make folks think twice about Perry. I hate to say it, but c'mon, Republicans can do better than inflicting Texas swagger upon the nation twice in twelve years. Just say no to caricaturable candidates, please.

Posted by: Walter Freeman at September 11, 2011 07:18 PM (UsjBj)

14 OT: deal with it: Perry is a lose cannon who though bravado would help him in Texas politics, which it may have, but not elsewhere.

Breaking news: It doesn't take brain surgery or rocket science to be a conservative and/or Republican in Texas. Reagan was conservative without scaring people...Perry needs to figure that out--assuming it's not too late.

Posted by: ParisParamus at September 11, 2011 07:18 PM (kfz40)

15 Just in case it hasn't been stated yet: You can't poll dead people. And thus, this is too small a margin to defeat the Democrat Zombie Army.

Posted by: Apologetic California at September 11, 2011 07:19 PM (/zrTe)

16 Does Weprin have a headquarters? A tiny hotel lobby somewhere? I propose some Morons go there with SCOAMF signs and small pudding pots and get some media coverage Tuesday night--consider it a dress rehearsal...

Posted by: ParisParamus at September 11, 2011 07:20 PM (kfz40)

17 @14: "... assuming it's not too late." Too late.

Posted by: Walter Freeman at September 11, 2011 07:21 PM (UsjBj)

18 Perry still lacks the name recognition that Romney has. Easy. It's early.

Posted by: Johnny (John E.) at September 11, 2011 07:23 PM (nRTou)

19 There are two issues re Perry: could he be a good President; and does he have what it takes to get there? Possibly; and no.

Posted by: ParisParamus at September 11, 2011 07:23 PM (kfz40)

20 I agree Walter, with numbers this bad we dont have to settle for Perry, we can win with Sarah!

Posted by: Jean at September 11, 2011 07:24 PM (qjHIb)

21 Love the fact that NY-9 is now officially a swing district. If the typical Republican candidate is playing at the national poll average in this district, you know things are toast-ready next November.

Posted by: Kevin in ABQ at September 11, 2011 07:25 PM (x81hH)

22 13 & 14...it's nice to have Mr & Mrs Mittsy in the comment thread tonight.

Posted by: Tha Hammer at September 11, 2011 07:26 PM (7WMGf)

23 I think Perry's numbers are depressed this week due to the Jets playing the Cowboys - check back in a few weeks.

Posted by: Jean at September 11, 2011 07:28 PM (qjHIb)

24 #18, Perry doesn't have the name recognition? Then how did he spike ahead of Romney? He has the name recognition, and the generic conservative credibility. Now reality is starting to emerge.

Not to sound like a complete Romneybot, but you have to admit the Romney's retorts re what Perry can claim as far as Texas' economic stats were pretty devastating.

Anyway, back to some pudding and SCOAMF fun at Weprin headquarters. Looks like pretty prime place to get some Dem-demoralizing publicity.

Posted by: ParisParamus at September 11, 2011 07:28 PM (kfz40)

25 Hoffman by a landslide in NY-23.

Never forget.

Posted by: PPP at September 11, 2011 07:29 PM (usXZy)

26 NY-9 shouldn't surprise anyone, but should make folks think twice about Perry. I hate to say it, but c'mon, Republicans can do better than inflicting Texas swagger upon the nation twice in twelve years. Just say no to caricaturable candidates, please. Posted by: Walter Freeman at September 11, 2011 11:18 PM (UsjBj) He is in a statistical tie with Obama in a district Obama carried by 55-45 and that Gore carried by SIXTY-SEVEN PERCENT. Really?

Posted by: CAC at September 11, 2011 07:30 PM (JEVge)

27 Never forget. Posted by: PPP at September 11, 2011 11:29 PM (usXZy) Sienna says the Republican wins, Magellan says the Republican wins, PPP says the Republican wins. by 6, 5, and 6 respectively. Typically, 3 seperate pollsters from the R, mid, and D don't miss a race when they are in total agreement.

Posted by: CAC at September 11, 2011 07:32 PM (JEVge)

28 24 #18, Perry doesn't have the name recognition?Â Then how did he spike ahead of Romney?Â He has the name recognition, and the generic conservative credibility.Â Now reality is starting to emerge. ---- Oh, we're now going to equate internal Republican name recognition with a general? Come on, get a grip.

Posted by: Johnny (John E.) at September 11, 2011 07:33 PM (nRTou)

29 Plus, there's no Conservative Party spoiler unlike the Upstate NY races. This is two-party head-to-head. No surprises.

Posted by: Apologetic California at September 11, 2011 07:34 PM (/zrTe)

30 24...those retorts were less than devastating...CA has a variety of economic advantages and it's the suckage. And, last time I check, the USA has tons of built-in advantages. That's part of the reason we're who we are.

Perry can, rightfully, say it takes skill and leadership to govern properly and maximize the advantages available to you as governor of your particular state. And, Perry can also say, his success with Texas is translatable to the US as a whole, since he has shown the ability to play to strengths.

Mittsy's SS tactics are full-on moderate, technocrat, big government garbage.

Posted by: Tha Hammer at September 11, 2011 07:34 PM (7WMGf)

31 "NY-9 shouldn't surprise anyone, but should make folks think twice about Perry."

That doesn't make any sense. It should make people worry less about "electability" and more about getting it right this time. If *Queens* is shaky, it's going to be a nationwide rout, and the apparent difference of a few points between Romney and Perry won't matter.

Posted by: Knemon at September 11, 2011 07:41 PM (YTStg)

32 None of this is shocking. Not all Democrats are alike. This area is full of old skool moderate Dems who were never THAT enthusiastic about Obama anyway. Not a progressive leftist in sight. Don't let the spin doctors blame Obama's treatment of Israel as the only real factor for Weprin's impending defeat. The economy is still the #1 issue, be they Jew, Catholic or recent Latino immigrant. Hope and Change never took root here.

Posted by: Chris R, NY-9 resident at September 11, 2011 07:44 PM (hGTfi)

33 OT: The SCoaMF will be launching his "Jobs" Bill into Congress's dead letter box tomorrow. From the Rose Garden, no less.

Posted by: A Balrog of Morgoth at September 11, 2011 07:46 PM (3zFBF)

34 Posted by: Chris R, NY-9 resident at September 11, 2011 11:44 PM (hGTfi) Vote early and often, good man.

Posted by: Kevin in ABQ at September 11, 2011 07:46 PM (x81hH)

35 7 hammer, Mitt and O'Donnell both.... All they are doing ia adding moral weight to Ogabe's future attacks on that vector. They are both pissing me off.

Posted by: sven10077 at September 11, 2011 07:49 PM (AEIYh)

36 Obama voters are showing up in the same numbers they did in 2008. But only 65% of them are voting Democratic.

Guess they aren't too happy with how the whole hopey-changey thing worked out.

Posted by: 18-1 at September 11, 2011 07:49 PM (FBr/C)

Just say no to caricaturable candidates, please.
Posted by: Walter Freeman at September 11, 2011 11:18 PM (UsjBj)

Like Romney?

Posted by: joejm65 at September 11, 2011 07:50 PM (UZuc4)

Weiner should move to Pelosi's district and primary her. The contest: scrunt v. weiner

betcha Weiner wins...they like weiner a lot out here.

Posted by: torabora at September 11, 2011 07:52 PM (Xx//h)

39 33 ABM, Boehner will have it amended and passed after CBO scores it exposing Barry's "magic fudge" so fast it'll make his head spin.... the beautiful people will lose to the dutiful people

Posted by: sven10077 at September 11, 2011 07:52 PM (AEIYh)

40 Did Perry do something really, really stupid Saturday or Sunday? I ask, because last time I checked, which was Friday, he was doing just fine, so I don't know what all this "he can't win" horseshit is all about.

And the guy moaning about "swaggering Texans" can just go blow a goat. Sorry if he offends your delicate northeastern/californian sensibilities, but Perry seems to be playing pretty well everywhere else, i.e. those places with the electoral votes the GOP actually has a pretty good shot of winning if we don't run some feckless moderate RINO. And no, I'm not saying Romney is one of those, just disputing this infantile "swaggering Texan" B.S.

Posted by: A Balrog of Morgoth at September 11, 2011 07:53 PM (3zFBF)

41 Perry's a RINO. come on people, snap out of it.

Posted by: torabora at September 11, 2011 07:54 PM (Xx//h)

42 37 BM, The whole keynes klugman + kathleen spitz parker dustup was a desperate hail mary...

Posted by: sven10077 at September 11, 2011 07:54 PM (AEIYh)

43 41 abm, In all honrsty we need to look hard via RNC at who polls the best....

Posted by: sven10077 at September 11, 2011 07:56 PM (AEIYh)

44 Anyone know what the RGA has planned this cycle? What Haley Barbour did leading that organization was a work of art last year, especially the digital/video/social media campaigns. It should be repeated in '12.

Posted by: Johnny (John E.) at September 11, 2011 07:59 PM (nRTou)

45 This is what a full-scale collapse in Obama's polling looks like.

Posted by: al-Cicero, Tea Party Jihadist at September 11, 2011 08:00 PM (ehEyA)

O/T: The Daily Kos has finally imploded. Most of the users are boycotting in response to this post:

"Hypocrisy thy name is Daily Kos... The hostility on this site towards people of color is nothing short of breathtaking. That it has been mythologized as an Obama Rocks versus Obama Sucks episodic is nothing short of bullshit.

There was a t-shirt back in the day...It's a Black Thang. You wouldn't understand.

It was and is a race thang.

... It is racist to call the President "Uncle Tom" and 'ball-less" and insensitive to refer to black people who support this President as "kool aid" drinkers. Pointing out that black people died in that flavor aid incident is pooh-poohed.How insensitive."

ROFL

Posted by: meatpoles at September 11, 2011 08:00 PM (xXhWA)

47 13 NY-9 shouldn't surprise anyone, but should make folks think twice about Perry. I hate to say it, but c'mon, Republicans can do better than inflicting Texas swagger upon the nation twice in twelve years. Just say no to caricaturable candidates, please. Posted by: Walter Freeman at September 11, 2011 11:18 PM (UsjBj) The fact that Perry is running a dead heat against Obama in a deep blue district is proof that he can't win? Were you drinking when you wrote that?

Posted by: holygoat at September 11, 2011 08:00 PM (2ptZ1)

48 46 al-cicero, Yup...I called it they are in quicksand and kicking. The newsies may not get 'em a rope in time.

Posted by: sven10077 at September 11, 2011 08:02 PM (AEIYh)

49 The Dems will manufacture enough votes to force a recount and then they'll steal it.

Posted by: Marty at September 11, 2011 08:03 PM (on5PS)

Just say no to caricaturable candidates, please.

Posted by: Walter Freeman at September 11, 2011 11:18 PM (UsjBj)

Maybe it's not too late to get McCain to jump into the race. He has complete respect from the MSM toads and GOP grandees whose opinions seem to mean so much to you.

Posted by: al-Cicero, Tea Party Jihadist at September 11, 2011 08:04 PM (ehEyA)

51 47 meatpoles, Kos and LGF will be succulent in the event we sweep the deck.

Posted by: sven10077 at September 11, 2011 08:05 PM (AEIYh)

52 Jets!

Too soon?

God Bless America...and God bless football.

Posted by: Breaker19 at September 11, 2011 08:05 PM (WCm02)

53 I know we are supposed to reserve a certain word for use only at the end of utmost need, and the following case approaches but does not quite cross that line, but Kathleen Parker really is a fucking C-nut.

Posted by: A Balrog of Morgoth at September 11, 2011 08:05 PM (3zFBF)

54 34 Don't need ID, don't even have to know how to speak English to vote in NY. I have a cunning plan ....

Posted by: Chris R, NY-9 resident at September 11, 2011 08:07 PM (hGTfi)

55 LOL Weprin has two FB pages. On this one, someone was allowed to post the poll showing him behind:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/3nxxy5b

This is his other one; I was blocked from commenting there, but most comments are against him:
http://www.facebook.com/DavidWeprin

Weprin is a SCOAMF mini-he.

Posted by: ParisParamus at September 11, 2011 08:07 PM (kfz40)

56 Show me this myth, the uncaricaturable GOP candidate.

Posted by: A Balrog of Morgoth at September 11, 2011 08:07 PM (3zFBF)

57 50 Marty, I don't think so, we'll moneybomb the guy and their machine will get exposed too soon for next year. Just thr usual 2-5% donk english on the ball tops.

Posted by: sven10077 at September 11, 2011 08:09 PM (AEIYh)

58 54 ABM, KaPa writes like old folk rut.

Posted by: sven10077 at September 11, 2011 08:11 PM (AEIYh)

59 57 ABM, You called? Juan Queeg McCain aka Maverick!

Posted by: sven10077 at September 11, 2011 08:13 PM (AEIYh)

60 @50 Then why even put a team on the field?

And, believe it or not, NYC is relatively clean, at least when it comes to election fraud, especially compared to Chicago and Philadelphia and a thousand other Democrat-run holes.

Posted by: A Balrog of Morgoth at September 11, 2011 08:14 PM (3zFBF)

61 As I've stated over and over, Harry Reid was down, down, down. It was the last time I ever got my hopes up.

Posted by: Bunny, the terrorist, plus added bonus, Barbarian at September 11, 2011 08:16 PM (TN7KL)

62 This news is quite uplifting.

Posted by: Say No To Grand Bargains at September 11, 2011 08:17 PM (EL+OC)

63 60 Heh, they parodied the hell out of that crank in 2008, after he won the nomination.

Which is what some of our fainting hearts are failing to remember. McCain made his bones feeding other Republicans to the crocodile, until he was the last man standing in Obama's way.

Posted by: A Balrog of Morgoth at September 11, 2011 08:18 PM (3zFBF)

64 EVERYTHING ABOUT THIS POLL MAKES ME WANT TO DIP INTO THE PUDDING.

But, I am still scared. At the end of the day, I think "New York...Democrat...Queens"...and I take nothing for granted. Yet.

Posted by: Jeff B. at September 11, 2011 08:19 PM (hIWe1)

65 64 ABM, If Mitt gets the nom playing Donk style and Christine the good witch is picked as veep I'm changing the channel i've seen that show before.

Posted by: sven10077 at September 11, 2011 08:21 PM (AEIYh)

66 No one mentioned that the ad is Film Ladd's work yet?

Posted by: Dave C at September 11, 2011 08:21 PM (YahgP)

67 56 I am trolling that page as we speak.

Posted by: Chris R, NY-9 resident at September 11, 2011 08:23 PM (hGTfi)

68 McCain made his bones feeding other Republicans to the crocodile, until he was the last man standing in Obama's way.

This. I'm not watching that movie again if I have anything to say about it. And I'm looking at you, Mittens.

Posted by: Lana at September 11, 2011 08:24 PM (2cVan)

69 Added to my pessimism, did you witness the very friendly exchange between Boehner and Biden? Talking golf, they were. Just proves, no matter how rebellious and how they are going to change Washington, once they're elected, D.C. is just one big fat country club, along with the fear that they may not be invited to cocktail parties or dinners if they don't toe the line. This seems to be set in stone.

Posted by: Bunny, the terrorist, plus added bonus, Barbarian at September 11, 2011 08:25 PM (TN7KL)

70 69 lana, Heh....they changed the actor playing Charlie Brown on me.....

Posted by: sven10077 at September 11, 2011 08:26 PM (AEIYh)

71 65 ARGH! Let me tell y'all something, straight from the mouth of someone who has lived in this district nearly all his 39 years of life: this isn't a liberal area. Democrat does not equate liberal, just like Republican does not equate conservative. NY-9 Democrats are mostly moderates, not the far left latte sippers who live on the Upper West Side or in Park Slope, Brooklyn.

Posted by: Chris R, NY-9 resident at September 11, 2011 08:26 PM (hGTfi)

72 #61 Mainly because the Democrats win everything except mayor. Funny, a -D candidate has not carried the city in the mayoral race since Dinkins. NV-2 release from PPP "IN 2008 NV-2 showed Obama's approval rating tied, now its 33/59"

Posted by: CAC at September 11, 2011 08:26 PM (JEVge)

73 @PPPPolls: "Obama's approval in NV-2, where he basically tied in 2008, is now 33/59" Imploding.

Posted by: Johnny (John E.) at September 11, 2011 08:27 PM (nRTou)

74 @70 It is simple politeness to be nice to retards and children. I wouldn't read anything more into it than that.

Posted by: A Balrog of Morgoth at September 11, 2011 08:27 PM (3zFBF)

75 70 bunny, Biden's unlikely to matter, AND Boehner knows he's got hik cornered.

Posted by: sven10077 at September 11, 2011 08:27 PM (AEIYh)

76 NY-9 Democrats are mostly moderates Posted by: Chris R, NY-9 resident at September 12, 2011 12:26 AM (hGTfi) The "moderates" in the D party are quickly being squeezed out in favor of the marxists. Naturally, they are the last constituency to go R, following the Blue Dogs and the Boll Weevils.

Posted by: CAC at September 11, 2011 08:28 PM (JEVge)

77 72 Chris R., The fish doesn't know it's wet....but point taken I have heard the lack of moonbat which is good news in the end.....it means the middle and crossover GOP women are coming home.....he's done

Posted by: sven10077 at September 11, 2011 08:31 PM (AEIYh)

78 "New York, Queens" would be a lot scarier if you were talking about Astoria rather than Forest Hills. They are still drinking the Kool-aid here by the Hell Gate.

You know how you wonder how anyone could be stupid enough to enthusiastically support Obama now (or ever, really)? Those people? They live in Astoria.

Posted by: A Balrog of Morgoth at September 11, 2011 08:31 PM (3zFBF)

79 Posted by: Chris R, NY-9 resident at September 12, 2011 12:26 AM (hGTfi) Okay, should I hold my breath once again and be disappointed? These libs just come out of the woodwork when needed. It makes me think they're more focused and determined than the right, when the voting ensues, especially when the overall make-up of this country is conservative. What the eff happens on election day? It is a mystery.

Posted by: Bunny, the terrorist, plus added bonus, Barbarian at September 11, 2011 08:31 PM (TN7KL)

80 Registered voters NC: Romney 44 Obama 45 Perry 44 Obama 44 thats per PPP. But switch to LV for NY9, Obama barely edges Perry there and loses to Romney by 4. I suspect if their state polling switched over to Likely Voter, they would show Obama underwater in Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado and North Carolina right now.

Posted by: CAC at September 11, 2011 08:31 PM (JEVge)

81 77 CAC, Yup.....the next hail mary will be perversely w/high ue3 illegals......suggest we hold our nose and send a 180 day guest worker visa plan instead.

Posted by: sven10077 at September 11, 2011 08:33 PM (AEIYh)

82 "Probably the best news for Kate Marshall on our NV-2 poll is that she would have beaten Sharron Angle..." -PPP Yeah, NV-2 stays Republican.

Posted by: CAC at September 11, 2011 08:33 PM (JEVge)

83 80 bunny, "No mystery at all." //democrat trunks w/special voting machine package

Posted by: sven10077 at September 11, 2011 08:34 PM (AEIYh)

84 My wife talked to her mother today on the phone (voted Obama in NJ) and they ended up talking about the 2012 election. Her mother swears that Obama is going to win reelection and when my wife asked why she thinks that, she said "well, everyone on CNN seems to think that". When my wife asked if she would vote for Obama again, she said "absolutely not". It's funny, the media bias still seems to convince people that he might win, but it's not convincing them to actually vote for him.

Posted by: Johnny (John E.) at September 11, 2011 08:35 PM (nRTou)

85 The moderate Democrats also ditched Carter. It's only a matter of time. Perhaps that time is now.

Posted by: Lana at September 11, 2011 08:36 PM (2cVan)

86 I suspect if their state polling switched over to Likely Voter, they would show Obama underwater in Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado and North Carolina right now. ----- Really? Colorado? God, I feel like CO is a lost cause now.

Posted by: Johnny (John E.) at September 11, 2011 08:37 PM (nRTou)

87 >>>@PPPPolls:

>>>"Obama's approval in NV-2, where he basically tied in 2008, is now 33/59"

>>>Imploding.

Oh god, I'm diamond hard now.

Seriously, I could cut glass with this thing.

Posted by: Jeff B. at September 11, 2011 08:37 PM (hIWe1)

88 Posted by: CAC at September 12, 2011 12:31 AM (JEVge) This is what gets me. How can Obama "edge" anyone? He is extra stupido with hot sauce. How can there even be a race between the SFOAMF and a lamp-shade? Pure stubbornness at this point? More Paul Krugmans out there than you could possibly imagine? WTF?

Posted by: Bunny, the terrorist, plus added bonus, Barbarian at September 11, 2011 08:38 PM (TN7KL)

89 85 Johnny, We still don't know anyone that voted for Nixon.... //M$M

Posted by: sven10077 at September 11, 2011 08:38 PM (AEIYh)

90 CAC, Gun to your head - Wisconsin goes red or blue?

Posted by: Johnny (John E.) at September 11, 2011 08:39 PM (nRTou)

91 Obama's biggest drop in support so far has been New Hampshire, in terms of state wide. Carried it by 10 in 2008, he is grossly underwater there, the states self-ID has shifted to Republican for the first time in two decades, and he hasn't beaten Romney in a head to head poll since before the 2010 election. It is a lost state for him at this point, joining a plethora of others.

Posted by: CAC at September 11, 2011 08:39 PM (JEVge)

92 89 bunny, They weigh the polls w 5% extra vitamin D

Posted by: sven10077 at September 11, 2011 08:39 PM (AEIYh)

93 >>>Really? Colorado? God, I feel like CO is a lost cause now.

Dude, Pete DeFazio is making squealing piggy noises about how Obama could lose OREGON next year...I'm guessing that if Romney is the nominee then Colorado goes GOP by 5% or so.

Perry? Probably stays Obama. But he can win with a different map. (I hope...that Social Security stuff is bugging me out.)

Posted by: Jeff B. at September 11, 2011 08:40 PM (hIWe1)

94 Gun to your head - Wisconsin goes red or blue? Posted by: Johnny (John E.) at September 12, 2011 12:39 AM (nRTou) Red, if you put a gun to my head. WackyShua county puts the Republican over the top after waiting for the Kinkos in Madison and Milwaukee to run out of ink.

Posted by: CAC at September 11, 2011 08:40 PM (JEVge)

95 92 CAC, I suspect Ogabe gave a "teachable moment" to New England.

Posted by: sven10077 at September 11, 2011 08:41 PM (AEIYh)

96 @ 71 Sven,

Hey, Lucy stays the same. That cast of Republicans lining up to be Charlie Brown is the group I'm concerned about. Then again, I have big personal problems with Perry and would rather he not be the nominee, but I will say this for him. He'd shove that football up Lucy's ass. Which would be entertaining.

Posted by: Lana at September 11, 2011 08:41 PM (2cVan)

97 >>>Gun to your head - Wisconsin goes red or blue?

With the evidence of this year's votes on Prosser and the state Senate (specifically the margins in those races, particularly Hopper's where he should've lost by 10% but only barely got edged out), plus my personal experience having lived there for awhile recently, my guess is that Romney takes it by a hairsbreadth (1-2%) and Perry loses it by a slightly larger (but still rather close) margin.

It's really quite hard to explain to people who haven't been there just how evenly divided a state it is. (Actually, it isn't: just look at Bush's agonizingly slim losses in 2000 and 2004 for evidence.)

Posted by: Jeff B. at September 11, 2011 08:42 PM (hIWe1)

98 I smell something.... I can't quite identify it.... but lots of comments on Perry not being the one.... ??? Hmmmmm

The dems are scared shitless of an election between Gov. Perry and Barry. Because, when Perry wins, and wins big, he and the new GOP Senate and House will have clear marching orders..

... and that could be IF they get in, but IF they do... the Era of lefty big Government and everything since FDR will be undone. And it couldn't come faster if you ask A LOT of people.

Posted by: Yip in Texas at September 11, 2011 08:43 PM (Sh+fu)

99 WackyShua county puts the Republican over the top after waiting for the Kinkos in Madison and Milwaukee to run out of ink. ----- New voter ID law, though. Univ of Wisconsin students can't bring an electricity bill with their name on it to the polls anymore.

Posted by: Johnny (John E.) at September 11, 2011 08:43 PM (nRTou)

100 94 Jeff, The test is on the electorate in many ways to see if they grasp SS needs slowly phased out. Reagan was demonized by Bush the elder on SS and recovered.

Posted by: sven10077 at September 11, 2011 08:43 PM (AEIYh)

101 79 "New York, Queens" would be a lot scarier if you were talking about Astoria rather than Forest Hills. They are still drinking the Kool-aid here by the Hell Gate.

That's because your stupidity increases exponentially the closer you are to first year of college. The under thirty crowd will always be Dem. It's not something to worry about.

PS: 1/2 the population of Forest Hills is comatose.

Posted by: ParisParamus at September 11, 2011 08:45 PM (kfz40)

102 Posted by: Johnny (John E.) at September 12, 2011 12:35 AM (nRTou) Well, that is good news. And, I've heard it out in public like never before. In fact, I saw exactly two bumper stickers for Obama, one t-shirt for Obama, one t-shirt for Reid in three years. Can you imagine, we visited by boyfriend's aunt in a nursing home. I walked in two years ago and she had 8 x 10 colored glossies of Obama and Biden plastered everywhere. I should get an Oscar for not saying a word.

Posted by: Bunny, the terrorist, plus added bonus, Barbarian at September 11, 2011 08:46 PM (TN7KL)

103 >>>New voter ID law, though. Univ of Wisconsin students can't bring an electricity bill with their name on it to the polls anymore.

Yeah, well I'll have you know that I took advantage of that in 2010 myself. BIG FUN voting in Scott Walker and voting down Russ Feingold, lemme tell you.

Posted by: Jeff B. at September 11, 2011 08:46 PM (hIWe1)

104 Just to explain where I am coming from, I am also a Clemson Tigers fan and, as you may be aware, Clemson has had a succession of nice guy coaches whose teams were pretty average. Meanwhile, I watch certified assholes like Nick Saban have success, and that's what I want to see at Clemson: A hard-nosed asshole whose team executes and plays physical.

Which sort of explains why Perry is my choice for the nomination.

Posted by: A Balrog of Morgoth at September 11, 2011 08:47 PM (3zFBF)

105 105 Meanwhile, I watch certified assholes like Nick Saban have success, and that's what I want to see at Clemson: A hard-nosed asshole whose team executes and plays physical.

I hear ya, man!

Posted by: Mike Leach at September 11, 2011 08:51 PM (2cVan)

106 Great googly moogly, that disclaimer is fast.

Posted by: Waterhouse at September 11, 2011 08:52 PM (BuAsv)

107 I hear ya, man!

Posted by: Mike Leach at September 12, 2011 12:51 AM (2cVan)

Hey, don't pick at my scabs, man. Texas Tech put an NC-17 rated beat down on Clemson a few years back.

Posted by: A Balrog of Morgoth at September 11, 2011 08:53 PM (3zFBF)

108 If by chance the Dems do dump Obama prior to 2012, we get to call them all racists, right?

Posted by: Oily Taitz at September 11, 2011 08:53 PM (TUax9)

109 Posted by: A Balrog of Morgoth at September 12, 2011 12:47 AM (3zFBF) Perry is not my favorite. But if that's that, that's that. Anyone other than the Stuttering Clusterfu*k of a Miserable Failure, I mean chief, gets my vote.

Posted by: Bunny, the terrorist, plus added bonus, Barbarian at September 11, 2011 08:55 PM (TN7KL)

110 Gun to your head

Climate of incivility!

Posted by: Waterhouse at September 11, 2011 09:04 PM (BuAsv)

111 Republican Mark Amodei leads Democrat Kate Marshall 50-37 in the NV-2 special election No huge shock there, its an R district. But the underlying numbers for obama are just horrible there. Also, the numbers for Angle are just fucking terrible, just 24% of Nevada voters like her. Had Reid faced Lowden or Tankarian, he absolutely would have lost last year. Angle's wackiness and mismanaged campaign cost us an EASY race last year. Conservatives can make a convuluted argument that pushing COD in Delaware was better than putting in a Diablo. There is no justification though for the madness that gripped the GOP in picking Angle over far-better candidates. Angle is only being brought up btw because she tried to worm her way into this race. Thankfully she was kept out.

Posted by: CAC at September 11, 2011 09:06 PM (JEVge)

112 109 If by chance the Dems do dump Obama prior to 2012, we get to call them all racists, right? Posted by: Oily Taitz at September 12, 2011 12:53 AM (TUax9) NO. The left is all about greed, the vultures that are on the right. Never mind Cutty Sark, Heinz Ketchup, Microsoft, etc. It is all these money grabbing Wall Street people and the industries that just refuse to hire employees out of spite, when they are supposed to. I heard it on the radio.

Posted by: Bunny, the terrorist, plus added bonus, Barbarian at September 11, 2011 09:07 PM (TN7KL)

113 Well, it must be later than late. The pipe-fittings appear. Good-night.

Posted by: Bunny, the terrorist, plus added bonus, Barbarian at September 11, 2011 09:11 PM (TN7KL)

114 Digging up PPP's registered voter polling of Wisconsin from a few weeks ago, they showed Obama up 5 over Romney and 10 over Perry (before Perry's recent general election polling surge vs Obama). I suspect a LV model would give Romney a tiny lead or parity with Obama, and Perry down by about 3. Wiconsin is indeed winnable.

Posted by: CAC at September 11, 2011 09:19 PM (JEVge)

115 >>>Digging up PPP's registered voter polling of Wisconsin from a few weeks ago, they showed Obama up 5 over Romney and 10 over Perry (before Perry's recent general election polling surge vs Obama). I suspect a LV model would give Romney a tiny lead or parity with Obama, and Perry down by about 3.

>>>Wiconsin is indeed winnable.

This is pretty much exactly what I guessed at above.

Posted by: Jeff B. at September 11, 2011 09:27 PM (hIWe1)

116 I don't care what you all say, Ron Paul is the only one who can turn NY-9 around!

Posted by: Drunken Paulie on National Geographic at September 11, 2011 10:17 PM (qvify)

117 Yet another reason to vote for Turner. I am shocked he didn't go public with this earlier, when he could have used the press: http://nydn.us/ph2zHQ

Posted by: Chris R, NY-9 resident at September 11, 2011 10:28 PM (hGTfi)

118 The election is coming up soon. Just enough time for a couple of more State of the Union speeches.

Posted by: Nickie Goomba at September 11, 2011 10:31 PM (jeLTI)

119 The MFM are nothing but Obama whores. Trying yet again to elect "their man". They SUCK. I'd like to see a poll on them. Hey, America! Do you trust these media cock-suckers?

Posted by: Case at September 11, 2011 11:41 PM (DYR2Q)

120 I got Hebrew Nationals on the grill and Manischewitz gently chilled, lets do this!

Posted by: hurricane567 at September 12, 2011 12:28 AM (uiF/H)

121
I'm getting all schadenwet thinking of how the Dems are going to hate Weiner even more for this.

The RNC ought to send him a thank-you note if Turner wins.

Posted by: arhooley at September 12, 2011 12:38 AM (Ui38d)

122 Funny, "Swaggah!" was cool when Teh Bamster was doing it, but now it's uncool with Perry?

You need to get better trolls/disruptors for this site...

Posted by: backhoe at September 12, 2011 02:19 AM (rFdqZ)

123 ChrisR, I love discovered check

Posted by: Jean at September 12, 2011 02:43 AM (WnnBz)

124 And since PPP always over reports support for dems........................hey, where's that asswipe "Greg"?

Posted by: dagny at September 12, 2011 03:19 AM (t41/R)

125 I think Greg might be sitting this one out.

Posted by: A Balrog of Morgoth at September 12, 2011 03:25 AM (3zFBF)

126
Lies. Just a pack of lies. No more comments here, for obvious reasons.

Posted by: Paul Krugman at September 12, 2011 04:04 AM (0b17P)

127 47 O/T: The Daily Kos has finally imploded. Most of the users are boycotting in response to this post:
Hypocrisy thy name is Daily Kos... The hostility on this site towards people of color is nothing short of breathtaking.
Posted by: meatpoles at September 12, 2011 12:00 AM (xXhWA)

The truth comes out at DKos via "Mally" - it's mighty white:

I am deeply sorry that black representation on this site is so small. Maybe if we can change the tone then more minority posters will find a home here.

Posted by: No Whining at September 12, 2011 04:58 AM (wX3Af)

128 There is NO WAY a pro-life, fiscally sound Republican can ever win in a Blue State!

Posted by: Ace's Ass at September 12, 2011 05:14 AM (FgWb7)

129 To have any chance, Weprin needed to run against a witch who gets migraines and shoots at animals from a helicopter.

Posted by: Roy at September 12, 2011 05:36 AM (bm4vI)

130 They are both idiots. I am sticking with Prasadant Obama again. We have not been attacked by terrorests since he had been Prasadant. Can wee say the same about Bush ???

Posted by: LaQuisha Dunning at September 12, 2011 05:43 AM (48wze)

131 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

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133 Most people I know,are primarily voting against Weprin for one main reason .Same-sex marriage

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