August 18, 2011

Gorbachev: Time to Get Rid of Putin
— rdbrewer

From the Financial Times:

Mikhail Gorbachev, the former Soviet leader, has called for a change of Russia’s leadership and criticised the ruling monopoly of the United Russia party as a “worse version of the Soviet Communist party”.

In a press conference devoted to the 20th anniversary of the attempted coup by hardliners in August 1991, he both sought to defend his historical legacy, but also scold his successors in the Kremlin.

“Our senior management should be updated,” he told a packed hall of journalists on Wednesday. “There comes a time when you need to get out of this rut.”

. . .

“If the regime behaves just to increase its own power then this is already partially authoritarian,” Mr Gorbachev said . . . .

Video below of the only man in Russia with the stones to go after Putin.

Posted by: rdbrewer at 06:09 AM | Comments (227)
Post contains 154 words, total size 1 kb.

1 Time to get rid of Putin: Because the world isn't quite totally fucked at the moment

Posted by: Blue Hen at August 18, 2011 06:12 AM (6rX0K)

2

Gorbachev found in dumpster in Moscow, film at 11.

Posted by: Sean Bannion at August 18, 2011 06:12 AM (sbV1u)

3 Gorby must be tired of life.

Posted by: Waterhouse at August 18, 2011 06:13 AM (Ya0IT)

4 Why, yes, I would like some rich thick irony with my coffee.  Thanks.

Posted by: pep at August 18, 2011 06:13 AM (GMG6W)

5

Gorbachev found in dumpster in Moscow Volga, film at 11 low tide.

Posted by: Sean Bannion

 

FIFY

Posted by: Blue Hen at August 18, 2011 06:13 AM (6rX0K)

6

Gorby better watch what he eats. Bad things happen to guys that critisize Puttie. Just sayin.

 

I do like seeing pictures of Puttie. He always likes to have his penis focused on via tight tousers. There is something so ALGORE about it.

Posted by: Sub-Tard at August 18, 2011 06:13 AM (0M3AQ)

7 Good luck with that.

Posted by: Mark formerly in Spokane, now Sandy UT at August 18, 2011 06:14 AM (Idj3n)

8 Gorbachev found in dumpster in Moscow, film at 11.

Gorbachev may be the one man more-or-less immune to such things.  Which is why he's the only man with the stones to make these comments.

Because the world isn't quite totally fucked at the moment

Getting rid of Putin would not, in itself, cause any more harm to global stability.  It would all depend on who replaced him.  Someone a little less expansionist might actually be a good thing.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at August 18, 2011 06:14 AM (8y9MW)

9

“Our senior management should be updated,” he told a packed hall of journalists on Wednesday. “There comes a time when you need to get out of this rut.”

. . .

“If the regime behaves just to increase its own power then this is already partially authoritarian,” Mr Gorbachev said . . . .


Is Gorby talking about The Poot or the stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure?

Seems to me his works ought to be taken to heart in Washington and Moscow....

Posted by: MrScribbler at August 18, 2011 06:14 AM (YjjrR)

10

All of the would-be leaders have been murdered. Is there anyone left?

 

Posted by: Lemon Kitten at August 18, 2011 06:15 AM (0fzsA)

11 Yeah, well, he might represent the worst version of the Communist party and everything, but I would want to get rid of him because he is spooky wierd.

Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at August 18, 2011 06:15 AM (RkRxq)

12 Gorbachev isn't well-loved within Russia.  I'm guessing aside from annoyance the public pays little heed to what he says.

Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at August 18, 2011 06:15 AM (FkKjr)

13
At least he saved us from Reagan and Thatcher.
/s

Posted by: The only adult in the dacha at August 18, 2011 06:16 AM (EG/p1)

14 Hey anyone notice the DOW down 460+? Whats with that? I thought things were supposed to be good because the Dems got their Debt Limit increased. How is this the Tea Party's fault?

Posted by: Sub-Tard at August 18, 2011 06:18 AM (0M3AQ)

15 Vodka is one of the worlds best jaw lubricants. Gorby is an historic Alky.

Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at August 18, 2011 06:18 AM (ZDUD4)

16

Posted by: The only adult in the dacha at August 18, 2011 10:16 AM (EG/p1)

That was hilarious.

What else did you learn at Columbia?   ;-)

Posted by: Sean Bannion at August 18, 2011 06:19 AM (sbV1u)

17 “If the regime behaves just to increase its own power then this is already partially authoritarian,” Mr Gorbachev said . . . . So says the man who ruled at the top of the Soviet Communist Jungle until the economy fell apart so badly he couldn't hang on to power anymore. Make NO mistake - if he could have stayed in power by, say, having every last Moron & Moronette at the AoSHQ killed, all of us would be pushing up daisies right about now. Let's NOT romanticize this guy.

Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 06:19 AM (kUaEF)

18 When you've lost Gorbachev...

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit at August 18, 2011 06:19 AM (4df7R)

19 Did Obama make a speech or something? The DOW is tanking hard right now.

Posted by: weew at August 18, 2011 06:20 AM (7RbIF)

20

The market is racist.

It hates black numbers.

Posted by: Entropy at August 18, 2011 06:20 AM (IsLT6)

21

Gorby was a self serving ass.

Everyone claims he was the perfect leader for the time, which is horseshit.

The Soviet Union was going to collapses. After the spending of the Brezhnev era it was all over. They spent all their money on weapons and delivery systems that became obsolete in the 1980s and Reagans fake SDI just put the nail in the coffin for them.

It didn't matter who was running the country from 1986-1991. It's end was inevitable. There was no food, sugar or any consumer products in the stores, even in Moscow. And if you know anything about dictatorships, the capital city always gets the best and most goods. If they couldn't keep stores stocked in Moscow, how could they in Vladivostok, Kiev, or Leningrad.

The only reason why the media give Gorby any air time is because they are desperate to give anyone not named Reagan or Thatcher credit for the relatively peaceful collapse of the Soviet Union

Posted by: Ben at August 18, 2011 06:20 AM (wuv1c)

22 to bad Stalin VS Martians is one of the worst games I have ever played

Posted by: The Dude at August 18, 2011 06:21 AM (M8yfa)

23 So obama is to busy getting to Martha’s Vineyard to issue the statement on Syria himself. Hillary did it and she says Democracy is on the way in Syria. They really are living in a fantasy world. The baiiitch spoke about “unprecedented” sanctions against Syria? Give me a feaken break.

Posted by: nevergiveup at August 18, 2011 06:22 AM (i6RpT)

24

>>>All of the would-be leaders have been murdered. Is there anyone left?

 

Garry Kasparov

Posted by: Ben at August 18, 2011 06:22 AM (wuv1c)

25 So says the man who ruled at the top of the Soviet Communist Jungle until the economy fell apart so badly he couldn't hang on to power anymore. Make NO mistake - if he could have stayed in power by, say, having every last Moron & Moronette at the AoSHQ killed, all of us would be pushing up daisies right about now.

Exactly.  Under Gorby's tenure, the USSR instituted a policy that in the event of a nuclear exchange between the US and USSR, the USSR would drop biological agents (weaponized smallpox, along with some other nasties) amongst the rubble and kill off any potential survivors.

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at August 18, 2011 06:22 AM (9hSKh)

26 19 Did Obama make a speech or something? The DOW is tanking hard right now.
  No he is out riding his bike with his mom jeans and helmet. The WH spin machine seems to have burned out a bearing or something. Maybe they should read the news before releasing vacations photos of teh won.

Posted by: Sub-Tard at August 18, 2011 06:22 AM (0M3AQ)

27 It would actually be a shame. Putin is predictable. Posted by: Metal Gear at August 18, 2011 10:21 AM (Hfq1d) Correct and anyway Putin is not the problem, obama is

Posted by: nevergiveup at August 18, 2011 06:23 AM (i6RpT)

28 22, There isn't a world leader alive as openly narcissistic as Putin. Oh wait, I am SO wrong.

Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at August 18, 2011 06:23 AM (ZDUD4)

29 Gorbachev struggled like crazy to save the Communist Party and the Soviet Union (after he saw that his policies had inadvertently served to take it down),  Gorbachev's final moments in power were the most pathetic joke, as he struggled vainly to save what everyone in the world was crediting him with killing.

Putin is scum.  Sure.  But all Russian politicians are about the same sort of scum - including Gorbachev.  It's just part of Russian culture and has always been so.

Posted by: progressoverpeace at August 18, 2011 06:24 AM (N49h9)

30

So says the man who ruled at the top of the Soviet Communist Jungle until the economy fell apart so badly he couldn't hang on to power anymore. Make NO mistake - if he could have stayed in power by, say, having every last Moron & Moronette at the AoSHQ killed, all of us would be pushing up daisies right about now.

Oh hell yeah. Gorbachev was as much a monster as all the rest. He just sucked at it more than usual and failed the place up.

There's tapes, of him chatting with staff about - for an instance - the Tiennamen Square protest. Gorb was totally down with rolling tanks over people if it meant keeping order.

He cut loose communism because communism was dragging his ass down and he was hoping he could manage to stay on top without it.

Posted by: Entropy at August 18, 2011 06:24 AM (IsLT6)

31 I sense some polonium in Gorby's future.

Posted by: Captain Hate at August 18, 2011 06:24 AM (houma)

32 An autopsy reveals former Premier Gorbachev fell down an elevator shaft and onto six bullets.

Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at August 18, 2011 06:29 AM (VZ10+)

33 Correct and anyway Putin is not the problem, obama is

Well, this is true.  If we didn't have Barack Obama, who is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure, in the White House, Putin might not be so openly expansionist.  As it is, the main check on Russian aggression is wearing mom-jeans, riding a girls bicycle, at Martha's Vineyard.

Not that he'd actually provide a check on Russian aggression anyway, but he's really the only person able to.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at August 18, 2011 06:30 AM (8y9MW)

34 So who will be one of Gorby's Angels?  Is Helen Thomas available?

Posted by: AE at August 18, 2011 06:30 AM (YYjeh)

35

Gorbachev is immune to polonium.

What do you think that brown spot on his head is?

It's concentrated poison and toxins. He's like Mithridates.

Posted by: Entropy at August 18, 2011 06:30 AM (IsLT6)

36 Smilin' Mike has stones, but he's an old man...and there's a history in those parts of inconvenient old men expiring of 'illness' or other 'natural causes' at convenient times.  Almost happened to him, after all...

I say let 'em go at it.  I need some popcornworthy entertainment.

Posted by: F--- Nevada! (I'm AoSHQ's DarkLord©, and I approve this message) at August 18, 2011 06:31 AM (GBXon)

37

Also, while I hate Putin, does anyone think a real democracy is going to flourish in Russia?

They've been under an autocracy or oligarchy since when, 1547 AD? With a brief 6-7 period of kleptocracy from 1991-1998.

It's a country on the decline. It's birthrate is well below 2.1 kids per family. Russia has had essentially the same number of citizens since 1960. Whereas our population has almost doubled.

In 40 years Russia, like Europe will hardly be considered a great power and will be sparsely populated with the sole exception of major metropolitan areas.

So what does it matter who is running their country? They simply need someone who can prevent total chaos, and if that happens to be Putin, so be it.

Russia is no threat to America now, and will never be again.

They are going to go through a decline over the coming decades, our best hope is that it's peaceful.  And if Putin is the man to ensure that, then so be it.

Posted by: Ben at August 18, 2011 06:32 AM (wuv1c)

38 So who could we get to say "Obama must go!"?

Posted by: The Robot Devil at August 18, 2011 06:32 AM (136wp)

39

Remember that when the media was following Gorby around trying to prove that he "really" wasn't a communist, he was the chairman of the communist party.  Goes double for his wife, the beautiful Raisa, professor of Marxist economics which is nothing more than collectivist bullshit.

Authoritarian rule comes easy to Russia.  They have never been without it.

Posted by: l at August 18, 2011 06:32 AM (kd8U8)

40 Gorbachev will start his Po-210 diet next Monday.

Posted by: EC at August 18, 2011 06:33 AM (GQ8sn)

41

Wow.  HowÂ’s this for an international headline?  Oceans receding, planet healingÂ…

Â… not even close clown! 

Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at August 18, 2011 06:34 AM (RkRxq)

42

Gee, the same rating agency that said the USA was AAA, downgraded NJ. Hmmmm.

Citing the stateÂ’s failure to make full pension payments and its sluggish economic recovery, Fitch Ratings downgraded New JerseyÂ’s bond rating a notch, ranking it among the lowest in the nation. The move could make it more costly for the state to borrow.

http://tinyurl.com/4428roo

Posted by: The Robot Devil at August 18, 2011 06:36 AM (136wp)

43 It would actually be a shame. Putin is predictable.

This.  Like a Clinton, he can be depended on to do what's best for him.

Posted by: toby928™ at August 18, 2011 06:36 AM (GTbGH)

44 Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at August 18, 2011 10:34 AM (RkRxq)
The stats for the Southern border states are interesting, but couldn't possibly have any linkage to illegal immigration.

Posted by: Hrothgar at August 18, 2011 06:37 AM (yrGif)

45 33 An autopsy reveals former Premier Gorbachev fell down an elevator shaft and onto six bullets.

He was lucky. They let him off easy...

Posted by: Rasputin at August 18, 2011 06:37 AM (136wp)

46 Wow morons dissing Gorby in favor of Putin. Neither of them is worth defending but if you are going to go withe the lessor of two evils one allowed the fall of communism and the other would implement it again given half the chance.

Posted by: polynikes at August 18, 2011 06:38 AM (r8Vu0)

47 Russia is no threat to America now, and will never be again. Posted by: Ben at August 18, 2011 10:32 AM (wuv1c) I wouldn't quite THAT far... They STILL have thousands of nukes scattered across an incredibly large country, with piss-poor security all the way around. In the sense of a stray Russian nuke "accidentally" making its way into, say, Al Quaida hands... they remain a BIG security concern. Also, remember that Russia in 1918 was a backward joke that most people would not have considered a "major power," after the shellacking she took from the Germans the previous 4 years. 30 years later the only thing that stood between her and total world domination was America. Relative power can change very, very quickly. Especially when one power is hobbled by a weak, ineffective leader that seems utterly at sea, and utterly wrongheaded in his economic and strategic thinking. (Gee, I wonder who THAT would be... )

Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 06:38 AM (kUaEF)

48 47 Wow morons dissing Gorby in favor of Putin. Neither of them is worth defending but if you are going to go withe the lessor of two evils one allowed the fall of communism and the other would implement it again given half the chance. Posted by: polynikes at August 18, 2011 10:38 AM (r8Vu0) I think the Pravda is... Neither Could PREVENT the Fall of Communism, and Neither Can Reverse It.

Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 06:41 AM (kUaEF)

49 I think there's a chance, just a chance, that the 12K support is gone for good  -470.79 (-4.13%)

Posted by: DJIA Death Watch at August 18, 2011 06:41 AM (GTbGH)

50 Relative power can change very, very quickly. Especially when one power is hobbled by a weak, ineffective leader that seems utterly at sea, and utterly wrongheaded in his economic and strategic thinking. (Gee, I wonder who THAT would be... ) Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 10:38 AM (kUaEF) And they have a fair amount of money to play with since they have all that oil and gas. Seems they don't mind drilling? And they are also helping the Chicoms militarily ( which might come back to bite them). That "New" chicom stealth fighter is really a Russian knockoff.

Posted by: nevergiveup at August 18, 2011 06:41 AM (i6RpT)

51 44 It would actually be a shame. Putin is predictable.

This.  Like a Clinton, he can be depended on to do what's best for him.

Posted by: toby928™ at August 18, 2011 10:36 AM (GTbGH)

This is true.  Of course the problem with predictable is we know what he's going to do, but our government lacks the balls to actually do anything about it when he does something bad.  This is largely due to the stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure currently occupying the Oval Office, but there are others to blame, too.  For example, the yapping harpy lapdog who was appointed Secretary of State.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit at August 18, 2011 06:42 AM (4df7R)

52 The stats for the Southern border states are interesting, but couldn't possibly have any linkage to illegal immigration.

Posted by: Hrothgar at August 18, 2011 10:37 AM (yrGif)

I've said for the last two years that the poverty and hunger are going unreported as not to make the lord of the left look worse than he makes himself look.  The big problem I have is that when these numbers go un- or under reported, it keeps these people from getting help from private charitable organizations becuase the organizations are unaware of the extent of the problem.  For all the compassionate tald from the left, they can really be damned cruel if it means shielding their messiah.

Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at August 18, 2011 06:42 AM (RkRxq)

53

Christ.  Part of my job entails sending out an operations update to the Division staff every morning--including the commanding general, his brigadiers, colonels, etc. 

I usually start off with

"Sir, Good Morning..."

Today, because of *you people* I almost sent it having absentmindedly typing "Sir, Good Morning Morons."

Which I suppose would be better than ''Sup, Jackwagons!" but  not much.

Posted by: Chuck Z at August 18, 2011 06:42 AM (OITDh)

54 15 Vodka is one of the worlds best jaw lubricants.

Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at August 18, 2011 10:18 AM (ZDUD4)

*furiously taking notes*

Posted by: Bawney Fwank at August 18, 2011 06:43 AM (v+QvA)

55 Putin, is just the figurehead of the Siloviki, the ruling class of the security establishment.

Posted by: Captain Smith at August 18, 2011 06:44 AM (Pjih7)

56 Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 10:38 AM (kUaEF)

Russia remained a backward joke even as they rose to military prominence. And there is a huge amount of data that show that the vaunted Soviet military was mostly bluster. We allowed Soviet expansion by abrogating our responsibility.

Look at how quickly Reagan crushed them. I see no difference between the current Russian regime and that of the Soviets.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at August 18, 2011 06:45 AM (LH6ir)

57 What they need is Zombie Yeltsin, taking the Kremlin back from the commies atop a tank.

Posted by: Michael Rittenhouse at August 18, 2011 06:45 AM (2Oas0)

58 Russia is no threat to America now, and will never be again.

Adding to what another said, their tendency to raise funds by selling weapons and weapons tech to anyone that can pay makes them a serious destabilizing force, even if they're not acting directly...

Posted by: F--- Nevada! (I'm AoSHQ's DarkLord©, and I approve this message) at August 18, 2011 06:46 AM (GBXon)

59

>>>>>I wouldn't quite THAT far...hey STILL have thousands of nukes scattered across an incredibly large country, with piss-poor security all the way around. In the sense of a stray Russian nuke "accidentally" making its way into, say, Al Quaida hands... they remain a BIG security concern.

I should rephrase. The Russian government will never be a threat to America again.

The only threat Russia poses is if it's collapse and decline are chaotic.

As you mentioned, loose nukes are a big concern.

However the Russian government will never again be a military threat to us. It won't challenge us in proxy wars or encroach upon us through puppet governments in  our hemisphere.

It's going to spend the next 50 years trying to hold itself together and prevent the chinese from taking over resources rich eastern russia.

Posted by: Ben at August 18, 2011 06:48 AM (wuv1c)

60 Off t sick bay, Later Rons.

Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at August 18, 2011 06:48 AM (ZDUD4)

61 Also, let's remember something about Population trends: they can change on a dime. Just a Czech example: at the turn of the 20th century, Bohemia - today's Czech Republic - had TWO major ethnic groups, the Czechs and the Sudeten Germans. At the time, the Czechs were the much poorer of the two, much less educated on balance, much more rural. They tended therefore to have much larger families - 5, 6 or even 7 kids per family were common. The Germans knew they were in a demographic competition for Bohemia with the Czechs, and resented it: they made remarks about them not much different than what are made today about Latinos: "breeding like rodents," etc. Point is - by the 1950's, the Czech birth rate had plummeted into the same demographic stagnation that plagues all Europe today. Most families in the Czech Republic feature ONE child. TWO is extraordinary, and THREE, cause for amused chatter about "brood mares." Don't assume that today's population trends can't change just as quickly in the other direction.

Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 06:48 AM (kUaEF)

62 However the Russian government will never again be a military threat to us. It won't challenge us in proxy wars or encroach upon us through puppet governments in our hemisphere. Right. That's Iran's job these days... as in, Venezuela.

Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 06:50 AM (kUaEF)

63

>>>Adding to what another said, their tendency to raise funds by selling weapons and weapons tech to anyone that can pay makes them a serious destabilizing force, even if they're not acting directly...

Everyone sells weapons to seedy people. We do, China does, Russia does, heck Germany and France arm middle eastern dictators.

I agree that can be destabilizing, but the Russian army, navy or airforce isn't going ot be a threat to us.

If you read some of the after action reports about the Russian invasion of Georgia, it was essentially a cluster fuck. It was more akin to an army of bandits and mercinaries than a disciplined western army.

The Russian military is no longer a threat to us.

Posted by: Ben at August 18, 2011 06:51 AM (wuv1c)

64 Prevent the fall maybe not but he could have certainly delayed it as his predecessors did.

Posted by: polynikes at August 18, 2011 06:51 AM (r8Vu0)

65 What, no corndogs included among the phallic imagery?

Posted by: Major Kong at August 18, 2011 06:51 AM (Cfao8)

66 50 I think there's a chance, just a chance, that the 12K support is gone for good  -470.79 (-4.13%)
  Support, when breached, becomes resistance. Its kinda like a post turtle placed on the ground will never rise again. Turtles can't fly you know.

Posted by: Sub-Tard at August 18, 2011 06:51 AM (0M3AQ)

67 It's going to spend the next 50 years trying to hold itself together and prevent the chinese from taking over resources rich eastern russia. Posted by: Ben at August 18, 2011 10:48 AM (wuv1c) I've always said that the Russians are Dumber Than a Pile of Empty Vodka Bottles. They have 1.5 billion resource-starved Chinese pressed against the vast underpopulated wilderness of resource-rich Siberia, and they prefer to spend their time trying to recapture Lost Glory Days by pretending their big security threat is America.

Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 06:52 AM (kUaEF)

68 #48, Russia would have been shellacks in WWII if it weren't for sheer numbers and the US shipping them supplies. The demographic disaster the country is facing is in great part due to the millions of men it threw into the meat grinders of both World Wars.

Russia in World War I would have also fared a lot better if the best army leadership hadn't been killed in East Prussia by Hindenburg and Ludendorf at the start of the war. If Russia hadn't been strong armed by the Allies to attack Germany, but had been allow to push south through Austria-Hungary and into the Ottoman Empire to Constantinople things would have been very different. They would have had supply lines to the West, the army wouldn't have disintegrated from being mauled by the Germans, and the Russian economy wouldn't have overheated into collapse.

The Russian economy and army in WWI was robust, contrary to what the later Soviet revisionist historians would portray, it's just that the best leadership was killed off, poor communications prevents the masses of supplies produced from getting to where they were needed and the focus of the offensives at the insistence of the French were on opponents the army couldn't beat. Whenever the Russian army went against the Austro-Hungarian or Ottoman armies, closer to better supply and lines of communication, they smashed them.

Posted by: Blue Falcon in Boston at August 18, 2011 06:52 AM (ijjAe)

69 You know, perhaps Russia is only fit for zombie Stalins.

Posted by: George Orwell what knows Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure at August 18, 2011 06:52 AM (AZGON)

70 Cool! An excuse for Rush to play the Gorbasm theme again. I'll bet the MSM has one over this.

Posted by: Scott J at August 18, 2011 06:53 AM (/bVuS)

71 Gorby, if any of you're food is glowing... I'm just sayin'.

Posted by: cherry π at August 18, 2011 06:53 AM (OhYCU)

72 If you read some of the after action reports about the Russian invasion of Georgia, it was essentially a cluster fuck. Stop the presses... you mean B. Hussein Obama was seen on an actual field of battle?

Posted by: George Orwell what knows Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure at August 18, 2011 06:53 AM (AZGON)

73 Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 10:48 AM (kUaEF)

I can't think of a single place where the trend dropped and then recovered.

I love the idea that it is possible, but...

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at August 18, 2011 06:54 AM (LH6ir)

74

Coolczech.

I'm at work so i can't search right now, but there is a number at which no modern society has ever recovered from. I think it was 1.48 kids or something like that.

 

I'll look when i get home tonight.

Keep in mind that Russia, Germany and France all know that their demographic trends are going to lead to ruin. In each country they spend tons of money trying to make child bearing as cost free as possible. Free days care, credits, and i think Russsia even goes as far as to pay you to have kids.

Posted by: Ben at August 18, 2011 06:56 AM (wuv1c)

75

Could the Dow descent into madness today be related to the terrible attacks in Israel? 

(God bless and protect the Israeli people.)

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit at August 18, 2011 06:57 AM (4df7R)

76 Russia would have been shellacks in WWII if it weren't for sheer numbers and the US shipping them supplies. The demographic disaster the country is facing is in great part due to the millions of men it threw into the meat grinders of both World Wars. Well, that AND the fact Stalin killed as many Russian men as Hitler and the War ever did. NOW their problem is a low birth rate, to boot. But one has to give the devil his due: the Russians did do great things against the Krauts during WW2 - yes, of course they got massive material help from the West, but they also did a great job churning out tanks and artillery, etc. And the case can be made that they bore the brunt of the war more anyone else on the Allied side. Not to take anything away from the allies on D-Day, but on the eastern front for about two years just EVERY day was D-Day, especially at places like Stalingrad and Petrograd. I mean, their losses were absolutely STAGGERING, and yet they persevered.

Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 06:57 AM (kUaEF)

77 73 If you read some of the after action reports about the Russian invasion of Georgia, it was essentially a cluster fuck.

Stop the presses... you mean B. Hussein Obama was seen on an actual field of battle?     History has two lessons. Napoleon and Hitler were destroyed by Russian armies. They are very able to do serious damage to the west if they decide to do it. They can fight well, they just lack the philosophy to conquer. Who the hell wants to live in a post industrial habbit trail made of bad concrete? Not the sort of thing men die for. Just sayin.

Posted by: Sub-Tard at August 18, 2011 06:57 AM (0M3AQ)

78

>>>48, Russia would have been shellacks in WWII if it weren't for sheer numbers and the US shipping them supplies. The demographic disaster the country is facing is in great part due to the millions of men it threw into the meat grinders of both World Wars.

Indeed, the Russian theory was that they had more bodies than the germans had bullets.

And in the end they were right.

France never really recovered from WW1 if you look at their birthrate, and Russia and Germany never fully recovered from WW2 and the Cold War.

It wasn't just the men lost in those wars, it was a change in the national psyche.

 

Posted by: Ben at August 18, 2011 06:58 AM (wuv1c)

79 Look at how quickly Reagan crushed them. I see no difference between the current Russian regime and that of the Soviets. Nonsense. Putin has better music videos and spokesmodels.

Posted by: George Orwell what knows Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure at August 18, 2011 06:58 AM (AZGON)

80 Don't assume that today's population trends can't change just as quickly in the other direction.

Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 10:48 AM (kUaEF)

I have seen this thought before, but I wonder at its validity.  In days past, there was not readily available birth control, subsistence living was the norm, technology was minimal, and large families provided a localized familial work force suitable for survival manual tasks.  If the SHTF, the birth control may not be as available (although the Government may well doctor the water supply), but now subsistence living is simply not possible in many areas (NYC), and the burden of getting children old enough to be minimally productive as child laborers seems to be prohibitively expensive.  Interesting times lie ahead.

Posted by: Hrothgar at August 18, 2011 06:58 AM (yrGif)

81 Today, because of *you people* I almost sent it having absentmindedly typing "Sir, Good Morning Morons."

Not that I'd risk it but you never know, maybe some of them lurk here. AOSHQ *is* known as a smart military blog, you know.

Posted by: Retread at August 18, 2011 06:59 AM (G+7cD)

82 You know, yeah, he was a commie, and I doubt he'd be a small gov't libertarian type, but he always did seem like a nice guy with something of a soul, and it was sad when his wife died of leukemia 20 years ago.

Posted by: SFGoth at August 18, 2011 07:01 AM (dZ756)

83 Keep in mind that Russia, Germany and France all know that their demographic trends are going to lead to ruin. In each country they spend tons of money trying to make child bearing as cost free as possible. Free days care, credits, and i think Russsia even goes as far as to pay you to have kids. Posted by: Ben at August 18, 2011 10:56 AM (wuv1c) I think that, perversely, WEALTH causes population decline. The more money we have for vacations and BMW's and houses and crap, the less we want to have kids because we have to give up some of those goodies in order to afford the child his education, and spend our time raising him instead of swimming on the beach in Aruba. Poor people can never have any of that stuff, wether they have 10 kids or just 1. So they churn them out. European demographics will recover when their socialism seriously erodes their standard of living, I think.

Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 07:01 AM (kUaEF)

84 BREAKING: Mikhail Gorbachev found dead from suspected aspirin overdose. Corps was immediately cremated.

Posted by: Pravda at August 18, 2011 07:04 AM (EL+OC)

85 I think that, perversely, WEALTH causes population decline. The more money we have for vacations and BMW's and houses and crap, the less we want to have kids because we have to give up some of those goodies in order to afford the child his education, and spend our time raising him instead of swimming on the beach in Aruba.

Also, wealth allows you the spare time to invent things like feminism and environmentalism which further depress the birth rate.

Posted by: Ian S. at August 18, 2011 07:04 AM (tqwMN)

86 History has two lessons. Napoleon and Hitler were destroyed by Russian armies. They are very able to do serious damage to the west if they decide to do it. They can fight well, they just lack the philosophy to conquer. “Make the lie big, make it simple, keep saying it, and eventually they will believe it. Except for Rick Perry.” “I use emotion for the many and reserve reason for the few, and wear diapers when I see Rick Perry.” "Generals think war should be waged like the tourneys of the Middle Ages. I have no use for knights; I need revolutionaries... to defeat a man like Rick Perry." --Adolf Hitler, Chancellor and Führer of Germany

Posted by: George Orwell what knows Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure at August 18, 2011 07:05 AM (AZGON)

87

Hrogthgar,

Indeed. If you want to see high birthrates, you go to poor undeveloped nations.

There is/was a mentality that the poor(an I mean real poor not American poor) have lots of kids. The idea being that many of them will die, so you need to have a lot to ensure a few survive.

The places with these birthrates don't have easy access to healthcare, food, contraceptives, etc etc.

If you look at nations birthrates the first "western" country on the list is Israel which comes in 99th place.

The US is 139, France is 152 and Russia is 166 (out of 195 countries)

Posted by: Ben at August 18, 2011 07:06 AM (wuv1c)

88

>>> think that, perversely, WEALTH causes population decline

it does, go look at the List of Sovereign States by birthrate. All western nations are at the bottom of the list. 

Japan and Germany are in the bottom 5

Posted by: Ben at August 18, 2011 07:07 AM (wuv1c)

89 Speaking of commies, a new McCarthy names names of socialists in the US government.  Well, it's not exactly a new McCarthy.  It's the Democratic Socialists of America bragging about having seventy of their members in the US congress.  The usual suspects.

I hate to quibble but their number of seventy may be off.  They list Alan Grayson, a name that will shock absolutely no one, but the congress is currently being deprived of his services, I believe.

Posted by: WalrusRex at August 18, 2011 07:08 AM (Hx5uv)

90 80 Look at how quickly Reagan crushed them. I see no difference between the current Russian regime and that of the Soviets.

Nonsense. Putin has better music videos and spokesmodels.     Why would you want to crush them?   Their value to us, and our value to them, is a counter balance to China's ambitions.   The one thing that haunts the deep inner pysche of Russia is China. They have a 13 time zone border, most of it contiguous with China. They have vast mineral/forest resources and know that China is resource poor with billions of Chinamen to throw at the problem. The best bet Russia has right now for continued existence is to open their markets and frontiers to western (especially American) investment. The only problem they have is they are extremely afraid of not being able to control freedom. The Russian Archetype oscillates between openess and sheer paranoia. Catch them on the openess ascent and good things could occur.

Posted by: Sub-Tard at August 18, 2011 07:09 AM (0M3AQ)

91

Tom's River, NJ: Verizon wins injunction against striking workers after reports of vandalism, violence and harrassment

No vandalism.  No violence.  No Harassment.  No Obstruction.  No intimidating.  No threatening.  No Blocking.  No Trespassing.  Those were just a few of the restrictions placed on members of the local 827 IBEW bargaining unit,  their dependents, minors, households and relatives in an injunction signed by NJ Superior Court Justice Mary Beth Rogers last week...

My favorite part of the story, though, is this:

Ironically, section J is one that would normally go without saying, yet is clearly stated:

”(No) Dropping, spreading, throwing, placing or otherwise causing nails, glass, cinder  block, spikes, feces, clubs, rocks, screws, or puncture devices of any kind, or other object or debris to be thrown or strewn in, on, or about VerizonÂ’s driveways, parking lots, entrances, exits, vehicles and adjoining roads to any of VerizonÂ’s property or  at any work site.”

I really like the inclusion of "feces" as a prohibited substance.  Clearly those who filed the injunction know the kind of people they're dealing with. 

Why do I post this here without noting it as OT?  Because as I was reading this story, it made me think of the Soviet Union.  Huh.  Wonder why.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit at August 18, 2011 07:09 AM (4df7R)

92 but they also did a great job churning out tanks

This; they may have been stuttering clusterfucks at producing everything else, particularly consumer goods, but they were incredibly proficient in doing this.

Regarding Gorby, I think the one thing he deserves praise for is not supporting the Eastern bloc assholes in 1989 like Honecker and Ceausescu by not sending Soviet troops to prop them up.  That, more than anything, is probably what produced relatively bloodless revolutions.  He may have done it because he came to grips with what an economic drag they were to Russia but, even so, he was a break from his predecessors.

Posted by: Captain Hate at August 18, 2011 07:10 AM (houma)

93 87 History has two lessons. Napoleon and Hitler were destroyed by Russian armies. They are very able to do serious damage to the west if they decide to do it. They can fight well, they just lack the philosophy to conquer.

Nonsense.  They were destroyed by Russian winters.  Napoleon reached Moscow which had been burned to the ground ahead of him (it was mostly a wooden city, like Tokyo) until into the 20th century.  Similar with Hitler, though he never got to Moscow.  If there had been an unusually warm, dry winter, he'd have steamrolled the USSR.  The Wehrmacht was the first combined arms military in history.  The coordination between armor, artillery, infantry, engineers, and air support was breathtaking.  The Wehrmacht was also an incredibly flexible force down to the individual.  Germany military doctrine always stressed adapting to situations.

Posted by: SFGoth at August 18, 2011 07:11 AM (dZ756)

94 If you look at nations birthrates the first "western" country on the list is Israel which comes in 99th place.

Posted by: Ben at August 18, 2011 11:06 AM (wuv1c)

The normal Israeli Jewish family now has around 3 kids.  They explain it as wanting just 2 kids for replacement ... plus an extra one as a buffer against terror attacks.

Posted by: progressoverpeace at August 18, 2011 07:12 AM (N49h9)

95 Germany military doctrine always stressed adapting to situations.
Posted by: SFGoth

Two things stopped the Germans
1. Lack of tank recovery vehicles
2. Lack of long range bombers

or, and they used long bows..

Posted by: The Robot Devil at August 18, 2011 07:14 AM (136wp)

96 News says that the Dow is antsy over problems in Europe. Yeah, right. They are worried about Obama's plan, I am sure. @95 - I am pretty sure that the birth rate in Israel is due to the high percentage of Arabs in the population.

Posted by: blaster at August 18, 2011 07:15 AM (l5dj7)

97 Also, is it just me, or does the world seem to be turning into that of the Sean Connery James Bond? At least villain wise?

Posted by: blaster at August 18, 2011 07:17 AM (l5dj7)

98 Polynikes, Gorbachev did everything he could to prolong the Soviet Union. He practically begged Reagan at Reykjavik to kill SDI, even though Reagan offered to share it. Either path was unsustainable - continued maintenance of their enormous military machine, or developing the technology to either share SDI's fruits or counter its implementation. He chose the path he thought would keep the USSR together the longest. And never forget: Putin was one of Gorbachev's tools to crush political dissent. How many deaths, disappearances and exiles to gulag are on Gorby's hands? Fuck him. If this is his suicide note, so be it.

Posted by: Empire of Jeff at August 18, 2011 07:17 AM (lbo6/)

99 Gorbachev: Time to Get Rid of Putin Putin: How's my Polonium Taste, Gorby?

Posted by: blaster at August 18, 2011 07:18 AM (l5dj7)

100

I think that, perversely, WEALTH causes population decline. The more money we have for vacations and BMW's and houses and crap, the less we want to have kids because we have to give up some of those goodies in order to afford the child his education, and spend our time raising him instead of swimming on the beach in Aruba.

Question.

Anyone know of any modern, western, non-subsidized poor?

Certainly traditional societies (by which I mean, non-modern) are dirt ass poor almost by definition - 'modern' is usually very material - and traditional societies crank out the kids.

Amongst the subsidized class, the subsidized are also very poor - again almost by definition, granted you allow we use poverty as a relative state - and also crank out the kids.

But they are also subsidized to do just that. That new baby gets them out of a 3 bedroom public housing unit and into a 5 bedroom public housing unit (just finished reading an article I think on Protein Wisdom that included that real and not hypothetical scenario, I think it was British) and costs them nothing since they have no income anyway, and rather than having to split up the free shit more ways they actually get more free shit for the kid.

So do poor classes actually reproduce more, or do both non-modern-traditional and also subsidized classes reproduce more, both happening to be poor?

Does the non-subsidized modern-western poor class exist to even check against, however? Perhaps in Switzerland or Poland or something? Anywhere?

Historically, what's the reproduction rate among the rich of traditional non-modern societies? Also very high, compared to modern, eh?

How about polygamous societies, my impression is the richest among them have shit-tons of kids, like 30. Their richness, combined with thier misogyny, largely negate any real personal costs to the men for an excess of children. How does that fit in, or does it?

Posted by: Entropy at August 18, 2011 07:19 AM (IsLT6)

101 You know that footnote in history? The one with small eight point type at the bottom of the page? Gorbachev is the flyspeck near the period of that footnote.

Posted by: George Orwell what knows Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure at August 18, 2011 07:20 AM (AZGON)

102

SFGoth

I think you're forgetting that the German army was mostly horse-drawn when it aspired to be completely mechanized.  Silver lining: horses don't run on scarce gasoline.    

Posted by: Beagle at August 18, 2011 07:20 AM (sOtz/)

103 Posted by: SFGoth at August 18, 2011 11:11 AM (dZ756)

The one situation they couldn't adapt to was being ordered into Russia.

They were beaten by the weather, by superior Russian artillery, by the attitude of the Russian generals (via Stalin) that the Russian people were a fine first defense that was also disposable, and the vastness of Western Russia. It must be 1000 miles from Berlin to Moscow. Try keeping that supply line intact!

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at August 18, 2011 07:20 AM (LH6ir)

104 One thing stopped the Germans... GIs

Posted by: cherry π at August 18, 2011 07:20 AM (OhYCU)

105 I just knew I should have bought more gold and silver when OdipO said there was no chance of a double dip.  <hard face palm>

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at August 18, 2011 07:20 AM (4nfy2)

106 Germany military doctrine always stressed adapting to situations.
Posted by: SFGoth

Two things stopped the Germans
1. Lack of tank recovery vehicles
2. Lack of long range bombers

or, and they used long bows..

Posted by: The Robot Devil

 

1. Hitler diverted forces that could and should have driven for Moscow in the Fall of 1941 and toppled Stalin.

2. Von Runstedt wanted to create an army of Ukrainians after seeing the Wehrmacht welcomed as liberators. He proposed driving straight to the Ural mountains and emplacing client armies there. Instead, liquidation efforts began behind the advancing Wehrmacht and Ukrainians joined partisan efforts.

Posted by: Blue Hen at August 18, 2011 07:21 AM (326rv)

107 Someone explain to me why Russia has the shakes when it comes to China?  All of China's stuff comes from Russia or Russian know-how.  Russia could take care of China pretty easy if they wanted to.

Posted by: EC at August 18, 2011 07:21 AM (GQ8sn)

108 “If the regime behaves just to increase its own power then this is already partially authoritarian,” Mr Gorbachev said . . . .

You know it pal, and I do too.

Posted by: Barry the downgrade fairy at August 18, 2011 07:22 AM (4nfy2)

109 Fuck him. If this is his suicide note, so be it.

Posted by: Empire of Jeff at August 18, 2011 11:17 AM (lbo6/)

Absolutely. Let's not forget that Gorby was an unrepentant communist for most of his life, and turned into a "statesman" out of necessity.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at August 18, 2011 07:22 AM (LH6ir)

110 Feel my pectorals.

Posted by: Puty Pute at August 18, 2011 07:24 AM (4nfy2)

111 How about polygamous societies, my impression is the richest among them have shit-tons of kids, like 30. Their richness, combined with thier misogyny, largely negate any real personal costs to the men for an excess of children. How does that fit in, or does it? Posted by: Entropy at August 18, 2011 11:19 AM (IsLT6) I would think women having the opportunity and desire to place career choices over childbirth plays a big, big role in the decline of birth rates in modern societies.

Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 07:24 AM (kUaEF)

112

94 87 History has two lessons. Napoleon and Hitler were destroyed by Russian armies. They are very able to do serious damage to the west if they decide to do it. They can fight well, they just lack the philosophy to conquer.

Nonsense.  They were destroyed by Russian winters.  Napoleon reached Moscow which had been burned to the ground ahead of him (it was mostly a wooden city, like Tokyo) until into the 20th century.  Similar with Hitler, though he never got to Moscow.  If there had been an unusually warm, dry winter, he'd have steamrolled the USSR.  The Wehrmacht was the first combined arms military in history.  The coordination between armor, artillery, infantry, engineers, and air support was breathtaking.  The Wehrmacht was also an incredibly flexible force down to the individual.  Germany military doctrine always stressed adapting to situations.

SFGoth - facts are facts. Both Napoleon and Hitler were destroyed by Russian Armies. Without Russian armies on the field neither would have been forced to surrender. The geometric consumption of man and materials required to conquer Russia has a large part to play in it. But remember, Russian armies were in Western Europe to finalize both Napoleon and Hitler ambitions. We and the British could not have been successful without the Eastern Front.

Posted by: Sub-Tard at August 18, 2011 07:24 AM (0M3AQ)

113 Er, as others have said, Gorby better have somebody taste his food, and start his car, and about everything else.... Yikes.

Posted by: GuyfromNH at August 18, 2011 07:25 AM (V7FRF)

114 Posted by: cherry π at August 18, 2011 11:20 AM (OhYCU)

This.

Hitler had Europe more-or-less beat until Japan decided to screw with the US.  Once we entered the war, the whole thing changed.  Now, instead of just loans and materiel, we were sending actual troops over to Great Brittan.  Add to that our spanking of Rommel in Africa, and then the surge into Italy, and Hitler could no longer focus on Russia.  He focused back on Europe, because he believed (rightly) that Russia wasn't actually a threat to him.  He might not be able to take Russia on their home turf, but he'd shattered them enough that they were at least not a threat on that eastern flank.

Sometimes I wonder how ticked off Hitler was at Hirohito over Pearl Harbor.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at August 18, 2011 07:25 AM (8y9MW)

115 Someone explain to me why Russia has the shakes when it comes to China?  All of China's stuff comes from Russia or Russian know-how.  Russia could take care of China pretty easy if they wanted to.

Posted by: EC

 

Demographics. Russia's numbers are cratering, while China has serious problems of her own (though different in nature). There have actually been several border confrontations between China and the USS since 1950.

Russia or anyone cannot do anything 'easily' in that context, short of plastering China with nukes or a large scale conventional war. They of course are doing neither and thus have occaisonal border skimishes and incusions.

Posted by: Blue Hen at August 18, 2011 07:26 AM (6rX0K)

116 And never forget: Putin was one of Gorbachev's tools to crush political dissent. How many deaths, disappearances and exiles to gulag are on Gorby's hands?

Posted by: Empire of Jeff at August 18, 2011 11:17 AM (lbo6/)

Good point; Putin was Beria v2.0

Posted by: Captain Hate at August 18, 2011 07:26 AM (houma)

117 If you get rid of me, who will find your underwater ancient artifacts?

Posted by: Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin at August 18, 2011 07:26 AM (ggRof)

118 They were beaten by the weather, by superior Russian artillery, by the attitude of the Russian generals (via Stalin) that the Russian people were a fine first defense that was also disposable, and the vastness of Western Russia. It must be 1000 miles from Berlin to Moscow. Try keeping that supply line intact! Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at August 18, 2011 11:20 AM (LH6ir) The German were also beaten by their own Brutal Stupidity. They could have played the role of liberator from Stalinism. Instead, they managed the incredible feat of being even MORE brutal than Uncle Joe. They managed to make everyone along that 1,000 mile stretch to wish they could have Stalin back.

Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 07:27 AM (kUaEF)

119 Amongst the subsidized class, the subsidized are also very poor - again almost by definition, granted you allow we use poverty as a relative state - and also crank out the kids.

But inefficiently, and that's part of the problem.  The sexual revolution has made western civ suck at reproducing.  If a 'welfare queen' has 4 babies with 4 different men, that's tremendously inefficient - it took 5 people to create 4 children. 

In poor countries, they crank out children in monogamous pairings (polygamy in the Arab world is rare, since when you have a 1:1 parity between the genders either males need to die en masse or you settle for one), which is the most efficient method.

Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at August 18, 2011 07:28 AM (FkKjr)

120 I sense a distinct lack of confidence in the ability of the stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure to right the foundering economy    -449.90 (3.94%)

Posted by: DJIA Death Watch at August 18, 2011 07:28 AM (GTbGH)

121 If you get rid of me, who will find your underwater ancient artifacts?

I say we send el JEFfe.  With a 1930's style diving suit.  And no blow-back suppressor.

(Okay, okay, I denounce myself)

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at August 18, 2011 07:28 AM (8y9MW)

122 Posted by: DJIA Death Watch at August 18, 2011 11:28 AM (GTbGH)

Hey, that's better than the -500 it was for a little while this morning.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at August 18, 2011 07:29 AM (8y9MW)

123

History has two lessons. Napoleon and Hitler were destroyed by Russian armies. They are very able to do serious damage to the west if they decide to do it. They can fight well, they just lack the philosophy to conquer

Ehhhhh....

Hitler we can quibble about.

However Napoleon at least, was defeated by the Russian weather, not the Russian army.

Posted by: Entropy at August 18, 2011 07:29 AM (IsLT6)

124 Sometimes I wonder how ticked off Hitler was at Hirohito over Pearl Harbor.

I haven't studied it enough, but I thought the point was the axis thought the US would be kept busy in the Pacific.

Posted by: Puty Pute at August 18, 2011 07:31 AM (4nfy2)

125 54

Christ.  Part of my job entails sending out an operations update to the Division staff every morning--including the commanding general, his brigadiers, colonels, etc. 

I usually start off with

"Sir, Good Morning..."

Today, because of *you people* I almost sent it having absentmindedly typing "Sir, Good Morning Morons."

Which I suppose would be better than ''Sup, Jackwagons!" but  not much.


Hilarity would have ensued, I'm sure.

Posted by: Chuck Z at August 18, 2011 10:42 AM (OITDh)

Posted by: Jane D'oh at August 18, 2011 07:32 AM (UOM48)

126 Since I brought up Petrograd, there's one thing I always wondered about... Why do we in the West refer to Petrograd/Petersburg as "SAINT" Petersburg? The Russians DO NOT. Petrograd literally means, "Peter's Castle." That is Peter the Great, NOT Saint Peter. As far as I know the Russians have always called Petrograd "Petrograd." I've always been curious about that.

Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 07:32 AM (kUaEF)

127 Hitler we can quibble about. However Napoleon at least, was defeated by the Russian weather, not the Russian army. Posted by: Entropy at August 18, 2011 11:29 AM (IsLT6) And Napoleon was also defeated by the great strategic depth of Mother Russia. Hitler also had the weather and Mother Russia against him, but his problems were also compounded by the fact he was a blithering military idiot.

Posted by: nevergiveup at August 18, 2011 07:32 AM (i6RpT)

128 96 Germany military doctrine always stressed adapting to situations.
Posted by: SFGoth

Two things stopped the Germans
1. Lack of tank recovery vehicles
2. Lack of long range bombers

or, and they used long bows..
Posted by: The Robot Devil

103

SFGoth

I think you're forgetting that the German army was mostly horse-drawn when it aspired to be completely mechanized.  Silver lining: horses don't run on scarce gasoline.    

Posted by: Beagle
////

Disclaimer:  almost everything I've read in the past 5 years is about the Eastern front, particularly the Wehrmacht.  I've even begun reading that stuff in German.  I can go on for hours, but I'll respond to these two.

1.  Lack of tank recovery vehicles.  That certainly hurt, but given how close they did get given one hell of a harsh winter, I don't think it would have mattered if there had been no significant winter.  Moreover, they would've been able to adapt Soviet tanks to that purpose.  When winter hit, it was over.  Everything froze, from men to lubricant to fuel.

2.  Lack of long range (assumedly heavy) bombers.  Wouldn't have made much difference.  Once Hitler controlled western Russia up to the Volga, he wouldn't have needed to smash Russia further, he simply would've need to keep a blocking army in place.  He would've had a wealth of resources at his disposal and the USSR would've lost millions of soldiers not easily replaced.  Heavy bombers wouldn't have made a difference in Barbarossa anyway.  What hurt more was the loss of so many tactical bombers during the Battle of Britain.  He sure could've used a few thousand more -- they lost 1,652 total aircraft.  Tactical bombers, especially dive bombers, were like flying artillery and were crucial to beating the superior Soviet tanks.  Heavies simply would've been an unnecessary drain on resources.  Germany never developed heavies because it could never have supported more than a few, not because it lacked the ability to do develop them.

3.  Horses.  The infantry and infantry support were mostly horse drawn.  However, Germany was the first country to have fully independent armor divisions (rather than piecemeal armor out as infantry support) and those formations were fully mechanized/motorized, including support.  The bigger problem was the difference in rail gauge between Germany and Russia, forcing Germany to adapt the lines to fit their trains.

Moreover, the Russian "panje" horses, small, strong horses, were quite effective on the Eastern front; indeed, there were actually Siberian panje cavalry units which charged, successfully, on horseback.  The difference was Russia, November and December, not Poland, September.

Don't misread what I originally posted.  Germany could not have won absent a harsh winter.

Posted by: SFGoth at August 18, 2011 07:32 AM (dZ756)

129 Russia or anyone cannot do anything 'easily' in that context, short of plastering China with nukes or a large scale conventional war. They of course are doing neither and thus have occaisonal border skimishes and incusions.

Small scale border clashes are giving the Russians nervous breakdowns?  Wow...

We have shit going down on the US-Mexico border between narco-terrorists and corrupt Mexican LE/military but we don't run and hide.  We could permanently "fix" the situation along our border if we really wanted to, but all the PC fallout is holding us back.

Posted by: EC at August 18, 2011 07:32 AM (GQ8sn)

130 Ooops, could not have won with a harsh winter.

Posted by: SFGoth at August 18, 2011 07:33 AM (dZ756)

131

However Napoleon at least, was defeated by the Russian weather, not the Russian army.

Posted by: Entropy

We need to remember that Napolean made the decision to retreat because he realized that staying in Moscow wasn't getting him anything, and was also a threat. The Russian army adopted a scorched earth policy that denied him the ability to forage, and russian attacks endangered long supply lines. And he didn't get the grand capitulation that he counted on from taking the capitol city. What people remember was the horrific casualties sustained from exposure, and lack of food. There were several cases of French units being attacked and of trying to make and hold bridge crossing during the retreat.

Posted by: Blue Hen at August 18, 2011 07:35 AM (6rX0K)

132 EOJ I'm not a defender of Gorby but he definitely had other options other than to implement Glanost to keep the USSR together.

Posted by: polynikes at August 18, 2011 07:35 AM (r8Vu0)

133 stupid smelly sock go away

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at August 18, 2011 07:36 AM (4nfy2)

134 @94, Winter winter winter.

The Wehrmacht certainly was not doctrinally flexible, except on their best (early) days under their best commanders. When stressed, the default was orthodoxy, and waiting for orders from above. While it would be pretty to think so, this was not just the result of crazee Nazis farther up the chain, but rather a matter of inculcated -- I will even say inbred -- Prussian bullheadedness. Intelligence was seldom shared. Improvisation was often punished.

At Losheimergraben Station, schoostaboud the entire VI Panzer Armee was proceeding up the rail line. An American first sergeant, with nothing but a platoon to back him up, stepped out onto the tracks, held up his hand, and called "Halt!"

They did.

Posted by: comatus at August 18, 2011 07:38 AM (W5ilH)

135 Look, I don't think anyone here arguing that winter defeated Napoleon and/or Hitler is saying that the soldiers played NO role.  That's just focking retarded.  However, I'd like someone to thoroughly explain how Operation Typhoon would've failed if the temperature had stayed above freezing with no rain.  I look forward to that one.

Clearly, Hitler's strategic blunders:
1.  Genocide against slavs
2.  Diverting Army Group Center both north and south at the end of July when Guderian wanted to bolt for Moscow
3.  Not planning for winter and winter defense

Posted by: SFGoth at August 18, 2011 07:39 AM (dZ756)

136

Totally OT, but important.

Reading between the lines of all of the stories on JEF today, I think I have uncovered Barry's sinister campaign strategy:

"Re-elect Obama So He Can Undo the Shitstorm He Created"

Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at August 18, 2011 07:40 AM (RkRxq)

137 G*d help us.  Check out the picture of Dear Leader on Drudge.

*facepalm*

Posted by: Jane D'oh at August 18, 2011 07:41 AM (UOM48)

138

137 Look, I don't think anyone here arguing that winter defeated Napoleon and/or Hitler is saying that the soldiers played NO role.  That's just focking retarded.  However, I'd like someone to thoroughly explain how Operation Typhoon would've failed if the temperature had stayed above freezing with no rain.  I look forward to that one.

Clearly, Hitler's strategic blunders:
1.  Genocide against slavs
2.  Diverting Army Group Center both north and south at the end of July when Guderian wanted to bolt for Moscow
3.  Not planning for winter and winter defense

 

You forgot the diversion to the Balkans that delayed the whole shebang by 6 weeks. Hitler's role model Il Duce got his tit in a ringer and required Germans to pull it out. Sound familiar?

Posted by: Sub-Tard at August 18, 2011 07:41 AM (0M3AQ)

139

The bulk of the manpower that defeated Napoleon were Russian.

Posted by: Sub-Tard

Battle of the Nile and Trafalger with one arm,  bitches.  Suck my pickled prick.


Posted by: Lord Admiral Nelson at August 18, 2011 07:42 AM (TXKVh)

140

140 G*d help us.  Check out the picture of Dear Leader on Drudge.

*facepalm*

 

The word "CANDYASS" comes to mind.

Posted by: Sub-Tard at August 18, 2011 07:42 AM (0M3AQ)

141 Someone explain to me why Russia has the shakes when it comes to China? All of China's stuff comes from Russia or Russian know-how. Russia could take care of China pretty easy if they wanted to. Posted by: EC at August 18, 2011 11:21 AM (GQ8sn) China has a lot of people, and they need space. Russia does not have so many people, and they have lots and lots of space. There have been some minor flareups over border territory. I thought that the Russian invasion of Georgia during the Beijing Olympics was an attempt to show China that they were not the big dogs. I think that Russian belligerence toward the US of late - Bear overflights of the US and stalking our naval formations -has been a way to show the Chinese that they are still a superpower without having to directly confront the Chinese. The Russians cannot take on the Chinese in a direct conflict. Perhaps unrelated fact: Russian population skews female - men have a short life expectancy.

Posted by: blaster at August 18, 2011 07:42 AM (l5dj7)

142 G*d help us.  Check out the picture of Dear Leader on Drudge.

*facepalm*

Posted by: Jane D'oh at August 18, 2011 11:41 AM (UOM4

WTF?!  Is that a new biking pic? 

Posted by: Tami at August 18, 2011 07:43 AM (X6akg)

143 Check out the picture of Dear Leader on Drudge.

Wheels on the bike go 'round and 'round!

Posted by: EC at August 18, 2011 07:43 AM (GQ8sn)

144 142

The bulk of the manpower that defeated Napoleon were Russian.

Posted by: Sub-Tard

Battle of the Nile and Trafalger with one arm,  bitches.  Suck my pickled prick.

Thats like saying air power won the war. Shoosh, Napoleon didn't need a navy, he had a Continent. Be gone you silly british wanker with bad teeth.

Posted by: Sub-Tard at August 18, 2011 07:44 AM (0M3AQ)

145

SFGoth - facts are facts. Both Napoleon and Hitler were destroyed by Russian Armies. Without Russian armies on the field neither would have been forced to surrender.

Subtard - Napoleon didn't surrender (to Russia, or in Russia). Wasn't forced to.

He left Russia and went back to Paris.

The problem is his massive, trained, experienced veteran army was destroyed. Mostly from the cold. Many, many, many, many died from starvation and hypothermia and frostbite and pneumonia.

Posted by: Entropy at August 18, 2011 07:45 AM (IsLT6)

146 I did look at the photo of our Fearless Leader biking on (All White) Martha's Vineyard.. with his Pansy Bicycle Safety Helmet on. Pussy.

Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 07:45 AM (kUaEF)

147 The Wehrmacht certainly was not doctrinally flexible, except on their best (early) days under their best commanders. When stressed, the default was orthodoxy, and waiting for orders from above. While it would be pretty to think so, this was not just the result of crazee Nazis farther up the chain, but rather a matter of inculcated -- I will even say inbred -- Prussian bullheadedness. Intelligence was seldom shared. Improvisation was often punished.

At Losheimergraben Station, schoostaboud the entire VI Panzer Armee was proceeding up the rail line. An American first sergeant, with nothing but a platoon to back him up, stepped out onto the tracks, held up his hand, and called "Halt!"

They did.
Posted by: comatus
///

Where are you getting this from?  First of all, by the time we got to Germany, it was long over and those were worn-out conscripts.  Second, have you studied ANY German military history?  The entire military culture was centered around the maxim (I'm paraphrasing) that local commanders could do almost anything to implement the strategic vision above them depending on local conditions.  This arose before modern communications due to obvious necessity.  The Prussian army, the biggest German state, was not able to field traditional infantry armies, so it relied on fast-moving cavalry, and hit-and-run tactics.  This requires devolving decision making.  Even under Hitler, lower level commanders could take their own tactical initiative.  It's not like they were making mass charges like the Soviets did.  The Soviets were incapable of any kind of coordinated or out-of-the box thinking almost throughout the war, although the top-level guy (Zhukov, Rokossovsky, etc.) did manage to do so at the army group (front) level.  Down at brigade and battalion, same ol' -- artillery barrage then forward march.  They lost millions.  The German-Russian kill ratio was overwhelmingly in favor of Germany.

Posted by: SFGoth at August 18, 2011 07:45 AM (dZ756)

148

Allegedly, when things were bleak for his twelve-year reich, Hitler said if he'd known the Russians had over 20,000 tanks he never would have invaded.  So I'd add intel failure to the list of German problems.  

Also, no Gertie the Riveter in Germany. 

Trying to make the Me-262 into a bomber slowed it for a couple years. 

Lack of standardization: too many types of things instead of making lots of the good fighters, artillery, assault guns, and tanks.  

The list is long.  How the Germans lost is probably one of the most theorized topics in modern history.   

Posted by: Beagle at August 18, 2011 07:46 AM (sOtz/)

149 Oh, meanwhile on the DOOM front - the terrorist attack on Israel. Palestine is about to declare themselves an independent state, and submit it to the UN General Assembly for approval. Google up unilateral declaration of independence palestine.

Posted by: blaster at August 18, 2011 07:46 AM (l5dj7)

150 Check out the picture of Dear Leader on Drudge.

Whose the doofus in the bike helmet in front of him?

Posted by: The Robot Devil at August 18, 2011 07:46 AM (136wp)

151 Russian population skews female - men have a short life expectancy.

That's why I'm setting up my own Russian Mail Order bride scam company for Morons.  All Morons get a 10% discount off their application fee of $10,000.

Posted by: EC at August 18, 2011 07:46 AM (GQ8sn)

152 That's about right, Dow is in the toilet and he's bike riding with sushi.

Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at August 18, 2011 07:46 AM (gan7Z)

153 WTF?! Is that a new biking pic? Posted by: Tami at August 18, 2011 11:43 AM (X6akg) *FACEPALM*

Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 07:46 AM (kUaEF)

154

You forgot the diversion to the Balkans that delayed the whole shebang by 6 weeks. Hitler's role model Il Duce got his tit in a ringer and required Germans to pull it out. Sound familiar?

Posted by: Sub-Tard

///

This had been discredited.  The spring thaw was unusually wet and late.  Germany couldn't have gotten going any sooner because the ground wouldn't have supported tanks and the rivers were too swollen.

Posted by: SFGoth at August 18, 2011 07:46 AM (dZ756)

155 If Russia gets rid of Pootie-Poot, who will be the guy to first walk on Mars in a speedo with a honey badger in a death grip?

Posted by: Fritz at August 18, 2011 07:46 AM (/ZZCn)

156 'Nam Grunt....lol

Posted by: Jane D'oh at August 18, 2011 07:47 AM (UOM48)

157 <156 Check out the picture of Dear Leader on Drudge. Whose the doofus in the bike helmet in front of him? Posted by: The Robot Devil at August 18, 2011 11:46 AM (136wp) That's COLD.

Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 07:47 AM (kUaEF)

158 *FACEPALM*

Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 11:46 AM (kUaEF)

???



Posted by: Tami at August 18, 2011 07:47 AM (X6akg)

159

What did the FSB chief say after Gorby was found in a ditch with 5 bullets in his head?

 

 

 

"Worst case of suicide I ever saw." 

Posted by: Spiker at August 18, 2011 07:47 AM (gh6F5)

160 Check out the picture of Dear Leader on Drudge.

Is that a girl's bike?

Posted by: Waterhouse at August 18, 2011 07:47 AM (Ya0IT)

161 Perhaps unrelated fact: Russian population skews female - men have a short life expectancy. Posted by: blaster at August 18, 2011 11:42 AM (l5dj7) Without doing a formal statistical study here in the good old USA ( or it was the good old USA till obama got here) it seems to me there are alot more old ladies than old men?

Posted by: nevergiveup at August 18, 2011 07:48 AM (i6RpT)

162 Is that little Sushi with him? I thought it was Malady...

Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 07:48 AM (kUaEF)

163 Is that the daughter with the Russian name he's riding with?  And yes, he's riding a girl's bike.

Posted by: Jane D'oh at August 18, 2011 07:49 AM (UOM48)

164 @167

I thought the same thing when I saw it.  Looks like a girl's bike to me.  He looks so ridiculous.  What a pansy visual.

Posted by: Lady in Black at August 18, 2011 07:49 AM (ycuSb)

165 167 Check out the picture of Dear Leader on Drudge. Is that a girl's bike? Posted by: Waterhouse at August 18, 2011 11:47 AM (Ya0IT) I think I can make out a Rainbow Unicorn sticker on his girl's safety helmet.

Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 07:50 AM (kUaEF)

166

The word "CANDYASS" comes to mind.

Posted by: Sub-Tard

You're right!  The Precedent is riding the Huffy Candy Ass girl's 9 speed bicycle!  Nine speed because double digits are hard.


Posted by: Dang at August 18, 2011 07:50 AM (TXKVh)

167 Vladimir Putin vs Theodore Roosevelt. Discuss.

Posted by: Empire of Jeff at August 18, 2011 07:50 AM (lbo6/)

168 165 *FACEPALM* Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 11:46 AM (kUaEF) ??? Posted by: Tami at August 18, 2011 11:47 AM (X6akg) Because the photo of Obama looking like a little pansy on the girl bike is SO awful...

Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 07:51 AM (kUaEF)

169 Perry is going to stomp a mud hole in this mofo's ass.

Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at August 18, 2011 07:51 AM (gan7Z)

170

Yeah, yeah!  I get it.  Smart diplomacy.  I can see all of the shit being thrown at JEF.  He deserves it and more.  But to have people suddenly nostalgic for Hillary?  Holy shiite pedophile!  She has presided over a foreign policy Armageddon, for crying out loud!  Certainly Barry is the author of this clusterfuck of a foreign policy - extended hand, receder of oceans, healer of planets yada, yada, but the Smartest Woman in the World?  Give me a f—king valium.

Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at August 18, 2011 07:51 AM (RkRxq)

171 I think the official bike picture photoshopped out the tassels hanging from the handlebars, the bell, and the little bike-basket with daisies on it.

Precious.

Posted by: lu at August 18, 2011 07:52 AM (Tvo0h)

172 119 They could have played the role of liberator from Stalinism. Instead, they managed the incredible feat of being even MORE brutal than Uncle Joe.
__________

Hitler didn't want them liberated, or even enslaved; he wanted them dead.

Posted by: Anachronda at August 18, 2011 07:52 AM (NmR1a)

173 Check out the picture of Dear Leader on Drudge.

Hehe...you know George Bush would be running that same trail on foot.  No fucking bicycle for him!

Also, Bike Helmet Obama reminds me of that Mike Myers SNL skit of the ADHD kid tethered to a playground.  ROFL!!!!

Posted by: EC at August 18, 2011 07:52 AM (GQ8sn)

174 I'm embarrassed for my country.  World leaders are trembling, even now, looking at that picture.

Thanks, you pussy-assed 52%ers. 

Posted by: Jane D'oh at August 18, 2011 07:53 AM (UOM48)

175 Because the photo of Obama looking like a little pansy on the girl bike is SO awful...

Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 11:51 AM (kUaEF)

I know!....and since he did this before to so much ridicule, I cannot believe he did it....AGAIN!  That's why I asked the question.

Someone on his staff HAS to hate him.

Posted by: Tami at August 18, 2011 07:53 AM (X6akg)

176 176 Perry is going to stomp a mud hole in this mofo's ass.

Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at August 18, 2011 11:51 AM (gan7Z)

And then, stomp it dry.

Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at August 18, 2011 07:53 AM (RkRxq)

177 @168 - you are saying that this is true in the US? Yes, women have a higher life expectancy than men. From wikipedia so FWIW: Russia Total: 0.86 male(s)/female (2009) At birth: 1.05 male(s)/female Under 15: 1.05 male(s)/female (male 10,806,895/female 10,285,532) 15-64 years: 0.92 male(s)/female (male 48,864,763/female 53,048,315) 65-over: 0.46 male(s)/female (male 5,969,976/female 12,928,49 US: at birth: 1.048 male(s)/female under 15 years: 1.04 male(s)/female 15-64 years: 1 male(s)/female 65 years and over: 0.75 male(s)/female total population: 0.97 male(s)/female (2010 est.) China: At birth: 1.18 male(s)/female (2010 census) Under 15: 1.13 male(s)/female (2008 est.) 15-64 years: 1.06 male(s)/female (2008 est.) 65-over: 0.91 male(s)/female (2008 est.)

Posted by: blaster at August 18, 2011 07:53 AM (l5dj7)

178 You'd think whoever is running his reelection campaign would prevail upon him to kindly not have anymore photos of him taken on girly bikes with a girly helmet on...

Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 07:54 AM (kUaEF)

179 174 Vladimir Putin vs Theodore Roosevelt.

This week on The Deadliest Warrior...

That show sucks, btw. 

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at August 18, 2011 07:54 AM (9hSKh)

Posted by: Abe Vigoda at August 18, 2011 07:55 AM (GTbGH)

181 BTW - it's a recycled pic - it's not new.

Posted by: lu at August 18, 2011 07:55 AM (Tvo0h)

182 Someone on his staff HAS to hate him. Posted by: Tami at August 18, 2011 11:53 AM (X6akg) I've been on his staff a couple of times, and I LOVED it!

Posted by: Barney Frank at August 18, 2011 07:55 AM (kUaEF)

183 That show sucks, btw.

My favourite was Taliban vs. IRA.

Take a guess who won that matchup?

Posted by: EC at August 18, 2011 07:56 AM (GQ8sn)

184 I didn't know Stockman was still alive. Last year he had a column that said invest in firearms and batteries and stuff.

Posted by: blaster at August 18, 2011 07:56 AM (l5dj7)

185 Because the photo of Obama looking like a little pansy on the girl bike is SO awful...

Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 11:51 AM (kUaEF)

He always looks like that, to me.  He looked like he fit right in with that picture with the kiddies, yesterday.  He's a child.  A nasty, stupid, psychotic child who is looking to burn the house down while his parents are asleep ... but a child, nonetheless.  It's only when he opens his mouth that we realize that, while he's a child, he is actually infantile in his thoughts and behavior.

Barky should be on a trike.  That's about his speed.

Posted by: progressoverpeace at August 18, 2011 07:56 AM (N49h9)

186 The leader of the free world... on a girls bike. History weeps at this mans presence.

Posted by: Pay your f*ckin bills, B! at August 18, 2011 07:57 AM (0tRzD)

187 Oh, great: Out of all the current contenders Stockman favors Texas Congressman Ron Paul.

Posted by: blaster at August 18, 2011 07:57 AM (l5dj7)

188 Hilary Clinton,  call your office.  The nation's first female President is already in the Oval Office.  (Sorry)

Posted by: Dang at August 18, 2011 07:58 AM (TXKVh)

189 Barky should be on a trike.

Heh.

Most parents at some point end up putting a bike together for their kids. Can you even imagine him trying to do this? The f-bombs that must have ensued while reading the directions. Hell, he can't even work an umbrella.

Posted by: lu at August 18, 2011 07:58 AM (Tvo0h)

190 My favourite was Taliban vs. IRA.

Take a guess who won that matchup?

I hope you are kidding...the IRA?

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at August 18, 2011 07:59 AM (9hSKh)

191 http://tinyurl.com/4x9syf4 The Bush tax cuts are “unaffordable,’’ he says. Extending them would be a “travesty.” President Obama’s stimulus program was “futile.” Ben S. Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, is undermining the whole economy. Today, Stockman says, “I invest in anything that Bernanke can’t destroy, including gold, canned beans, bottled water and flashlight batteries.”

Posted by: blaster at August 18, 2011 07:59 AM (l5dj7)

192 When you see that photo of Barky on the Schwinn, you can laugh if you want to, but I think he's actually noodling about jobs, - and something tells me a Department of the Wheel just might be what his master mind envisions to stimulate the economy.

Posted by: Fritz at August 18, 2011 07:59 AM (/ZZCn)

193 Barack Obama in the White House is the real-world equivalent of Willy Wonka in his factory. Everyone knows he's freaking nuts. But half the population gets upset at you for pointing it out because they love his candy.

Posted by: Pay your f*ckin bills, B! at August 18, 2011 07:59 AM (niW49)

194 Don't assume that today's population trends can't change just as quickly in the other direction.

Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 10:48 AM (kUaEF)

It could, but it's not assured either. Decline in birthrates represents a change in the culture, and while it's possible to reverse such, it's not easy and I'm not sure it just happens by itself.

Posted by: KG at August 18, 2011 08:00 AM (LD21B)

195 However, I'd like someone to thoroughly explain how Operation Typhoon would've failed if the temperature had stayed above freezing with no rain.  I look forward to that one.

What people remember was the horrific casualties sustained from exposure, and lack of food. There were several cases of French units being attacked and of trying to make and hold bridge crossing during the retreat.

I will make the argument that, had the temperature stayed above freezing with no rain the French retreat to Vilnius and back would have left Napoleon with an army capable of defending France.

Posted by: Entropy at August 18, 2011 08:00 AM (IsLT6)

196 BTW - it's a recycled pic - it's not new.

Posted by: lu at August 18, 2011 11:55 AM (Tvo0h)

Thanks  Lacey...that was my original question.

Posted by: Tami at August 18, 2011 08:00 AM (X6akg)

197 And what kind of farking matchup is that?  *sighs*.

They did George Washington vs Napoleon the other week.   *double sigh, and double fail*. 

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at August 18, 2011 08:00 AM (9hSKh)

198 I hope you are kidding...the IRA?

No fucking joke.  And yes.

Next most ridiculous matchup I saw:  Vietcong vs Nazis


Posted by: EC at August 18, 2011 08:00 AM (GQ8sn)

199 BTW - it's a recycled pic - it's not new.

I thought it looked too much like the pic from last year. Even Barky can't be that stupid, but give him a day or so, maybe he'll surprise me.

Posted by: Retread at August 18, 2011 08:00 AM (G+7cD)

200  Out of all the current contenders Stockman favors Texas Congressman Ron Paul.

Posted by: blaster

Stockman loves him some nut rolls.

Posted by: Dang at August 18, 2011 08:01 AM (TXKVh)

201 Praying we get a pic of the Barkster eating a corn dog. 

Posted by: Jane D'oh at August 18, 2011 08:01 AM (UOM48)

202 "Most parents at some point end up putting a bike together for their kids. Can you even imagine him trying to do this?" No, the secret service did it for him.

Posted by: Grocery Bill? Have some cake and calm down. at August 18, 2011 08:02 AM (niW49)

203 208 Praying we get a pic of the Barkster eating a corn dog.

Perhaps Kal Penn has a few of those.   

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at August 18, 2011 08:02 AM (9hSKh)

204 Praying we get a pic of the Barkster eating a corn dog.

Michelle won't let him eat one.


Now that's poor wording for this place...

Posted by: Retread at August 18, 2011 08:04 AM (G+7cD)

205  200 Barack Obama in the White House is the real-world equivalent of Willy Wonka in his factory.

Everyone knows he's freaking nuts. But half the population gets upset at you for pointing it out because they love his candy. Posted by: Pay your f*ckin bills, B!

If Willy Wonka made shit instead of chocolate,  you analogy would work.

Posted by: Dang at August 18, 2011 08:05 AM (TXKVh)

206  Praying we get a pic of the Barkster eating a corn dog.

$5 says he'd slather it with mayo,  lick it clean,  and then eat it.

Posted by: Dang at August 18, 2011 08:08 AM (TXKVh)

207

What stopped Herr Hitler's armies from reaching Moscow? How about the month and a half he wasted clearing out the balkans. Barbarossa was initially scheduled to start en eary may 1941.

 

What caused hitler to clear out the balkans? Why msr. moussilinis little greek adventure.

 

The western world owes msr. moussilini very big debt of thanks.

Posted by: GMB at August 18, 2011 08:10 AM (wY55N)

208

In poor countries, they crank out children in monogamous pairings (polygamy in the Arab world is rare, since when you have a 1:1 parity between the genders either males need to die en masse or you settle for one), which is the most efficient method.

That's not my understanding of polygamy. I'm sure it's not in full force practice in every single household in the whole middle east..

But where you do have polygamy, what you usually get (because of the 1:1 parity factor you mention) is that the rich men gobble up a disproportionate share of the women, and so have a disproportionate share of the kids too.

1:1 parity between men and women does not mean every guy winds up with a woman on average, because societies don't order themselves according to efficiency. 3 poor fellows are liable to have 0 women while 1 powerful fellow has 3.

In a place like a FLDS compound, the rich and powerful are more likely to reproduce than the poor who get locked out.

And when too many young single guys have no access to women because the rich geezers robbed all the cradles, someone "die en masse"ing is usually what happens.

Posted by: Entropy at August 18, 2011 08:11 AM (IsLT6)

209 That show sucks, btw.

My favourite was Taliban vs. IRA.

Take a guess who won that matchup?

Posted by: EC

 

My stepdaughter announced this to me last night! There's some familial pride involved here.

Posted by: Papist bograt at August 18, 2011 08:14 AM (326rv)

210
Funny.  Doesn't this Bordeaux have an odd aftertaste?

Posted by: Mikhail G. at August 18, 2011 08:25 AM (0b17P)

211 I tell you again, that brown spot on his head is the Antidotum Mithridaticum.

Posted by: Entropy at August 18, 2011 08:29 AM (IsLT6)

212 On population trends:

We have a lot of evidence that they can go down a lot fairly quickly. And fairly quickly means 10-20 years. So not exactly on a dime, but one generation to the next attitudes can change the can go from 7 kids per woman to 5, and then 5 to 3 in the next gen, then 3 to <2.

But we've never seen them go up dramatically over any length of time. The best is the Baby Boom. We went from low 2s to mid 3s over about 20 years. But then dropped back to low 2s within 15 years.

Almost every country has shown a fertility rate collapse as they've gotten richer. So baby busts have happened hundreds of times all over the world from many different times. The rates go low and stay low.

We only have one historical example of a baby boom that reversed that for any length of time. And the fertility rate reverted to even lower than pre-baby boom within 40 years. And the precipitating event that sparked that Baby Boom was the  global War to End All Wars, followed by an economic boom on steroids.

Population trends don't turn on a dime. And of all the predictions we can make about the future, demographic trends are one of the most reliable.

Posted by: Clubber Lang at August 18, 2011 08:30 AM (QcFbt)

213 Gorbachev needs to keep his enemies close and his polonium detector closer.

Posted by: Advo at August 18, 2011 08:34 AM (7vbG1)

214 putin is too sexy for his shirt
if he eats a corndog i'm gonna hafta change my pants [again]

Posted by: right said fred at August 18, 2011 08:36 AM (FduBR)

215 Putin is the former head of the KGB and is a black belt from the brutal soviet Judo system. What ever else you can say about him he is one tough son of a bitch.

How do you suppose he views that stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure - President Obarky? Do you think Putin rolls on the floor laughing at the thought of a personal confrontation with Teh Won? Yeah, me too.

Posted by: An Observation at August 18, 2011 08:42 AM (ylhEn)

216 I wonder how many guys here decrying the birth rate would be happy trading places (physically) with a woman and:  1) being pregnant 5-7 times; 2) giving birth 5-7 times; 3) risk dying or serious injury (however small is not 0); 4) nurse 5-7 children; and 5) essentially devote their lives to raising 5-7 children.  Yeah, didn't think so.

Posted by: SFGoth at August 18, 2011 08:45 AM (dZ756)

217

We have a lot of evidence that they can go down a lot fairly quickly. And fairly quickly means 10-20 years. So not exactly on a dime, but one generation to the next attitudes can change the can go from 7 kids per woman to 5, and then 5 to 3 in the next gen, then 3 to <2.

Population trends don't turn on a dime. And of all the predictions we can make about the future, demographic trends are one of the most reliable.

We cannot predict the number of rabbits there will be next year in Kentucky. Reproduction of rabbits is non-linear and way too damn complex. Humans are more complex than rabbits.

As a simple matter of fact, we have a lot of evidence that population trends can do whatever they want - we can't predict them. We really can't. We try... but it's like the weather. No one's ever been right, not really.

But we've never seen them go up dramatically over any length of time. The best is the Baby Boom. We went from low 2s to mid 3s over about 20 years. But then dropped back to low 2s within 15 years.

No... the best is the Baby Boom perhaps, among the modernized west. But the modern world isn't very old either. Certainly if you go back far enough you'll find bigger booms in the west, before it was modern. And you'll find bigger booms in other parts of the world even now, parts that aren't modern. But population booms that dwarf the hell out of the Baby Boomers do indeed happen, and Europeans aren't excluded from them, they just haven't had one bigger than the baby boom in the short modern period.

Almost every country has shown a fertility rate collapse as they've gotten richer. So baby busts have happened hundreds of times all over the world from many different times. The rates go low and stay low.

This is interesting. But...

Is there any country that has shown a trend toward being richer and a trend toward industrialization but not a trend toward socialism?

Is there any country that has shown a trend toward being richer but not toward industrialization for that matter?

What happened to birth rates in those places (if they exist)? Especially if you factor out for things like China's 1 child policy.

Let me pull out wikipedia and take 1 halfass stab at it....

India has a growth rate of 1.4% - that is, a NET growth rate not a replacement rate. 22 births for 6 deaths every year, 31% of the population is under 14.

8.5% GDP growth.

The GDP since 1995 has septupled, while the population went up about 15%.

Posted by: Entropy at August 18, 2011 08:48 AM (IsLT6)

218 Yeah, didn't think so.

Posted by: SFGoth at August 18, 2011 12:45 PM (dZ756)

So we're supposed to respond to an impossible situation and then be embarrassed by an answer you assumed?  Surely there are better ways to make your point.

Posted by: Captain Hate at August 18, 2011 08:51 AM (houma)

219 In a place like a FLDS compound, the rich and powerful are more likely to reproduce than the poor who get locked out.

Actually, at FLDS they drive boys out by being tremendously harsh with them to get the ratio where they want.   Men aren't good about 'going without' a woman.  It's a recipe for disorder.  The more men they keep, the closer the ratio needs to be to 1:1.

Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at August 18, 2011 09:19 AM (FkKjr)

220
Deer Gorby: you may want to add some prussian blue supplements to your diet. You wouldn't want to get any nasty Polonium 210 posioning...

Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie © at August 18, 2011 09:44 AM (1hM1d)

221

But the ratio isn't 1:1 because they don't keep all the men.

I've read of dudes in Africa having like thousands of kids and wives.

You can't ignore the power dynamic. Women aren't handed out as a social product in the most efficient reproductive way. Many poor men cannot afford a single wife, and those women are instead taken by wealthier men who can afford several.

And yes, it is a recipe for disorder. I'm not saying anything different. It's just that - well yes, there is in fact a lot of disorder in the mideast, as well as in places like China.

Posted by: Entropy at August 18, 2011 09:45 AM (IsLT6)

222

Case in point - in Jordan. Just read an article I googled up about pro vs. anti polygamy groups in Jordan.

Apparently unmarried women are on the rise in Jordan (despite polygamy!). The polygamists say polygamy is needed to marry off all those women.

The anti-polygamists say the reason for the uptick in the unmarried is because the cost of marriage is so high and many can't afford to get married in Jordan.

Well there you go. Exactly.

Posted by: Entropy at August 18, 2011 09:49 AM (IsLT6)

223 Well we should be reading about Gorbachev's assassination soon.

Posted by: Suzy at August 18, 2011 09:52 AM (v8R4r)

224 Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at August 18, 2011 10:50 AM (xUr/v)

225

Many factors contributed to Napoleon's loss in Russia. I would say the primary one was logistics.
He went in assuming he would be able to forage for the majority of his army's supply needs, as well as assuming he would sustain at least a 10% attrition loss due to desertion and disease.
When the Russians retreated and used scorched earth tactics instead of fighting him, his forage rate plummeted and his attrition rate soared. They were bad enough as his marched to Moscow, and became catastrophic when he had to retreat. In that respect, the Russian winter merely exacerbated a flawed plan already made worse by a superior defensive plan.

Hitler's defeat in Russia was also due to multiple problems whose synergystic effects combined to overwhelm him.
He changed his plan, he refused to use Ukrainians and others and instead drove many to partisan activities, he refused to plan properly for winter, he underestimated the raw strength of the Soviet T-34s (even though his armies had tactical superiority), the Soviets were motorized through lend-lease, and more.
One of those could have been overcome, all of them together could not, even with Stalin's incompetence working in Hitler's favor.


As for Gorbachev, I read his book years back. He really came across as believing in it. Even communists have idealists, so for him to be more than a bit disappointed in Putin is not outrageous. And since he was brought down by the very openness he believed in, it is not strange that he would hope to bring Putin down the same way.
He will likely wind up in a dumpster as Putin looks to be considerably more bloodthirsty than Gorbachev was, but that's how it goes sometimes.

Posted by: Sam at August 18, 2011 11:02 AM (V9Tsq)

226 I hope you never stop!  This is one of the best blogs Ive ever read.  Youve got some mad skill here, man.  I just hope that you dont lose your style because youre definitely one of the coolest bloggers out there.  Please keep it up because the internet needs someone like you spreading the word.

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