August 18, 2011
— rdbrewer From the Financial Times:
Mikhail Gorbachev, the former Soviet leader, has called for a change of Russia’s leadership and criticised the ruling monopoly of the United Russia party as a “worse version of the Soviet Communist party”.
In a press conference devoted to the 20th anniversary of the attempted coup by hardliners in August 1991, he both sought to defend his historical legacy, but also scold his successors in the Kremlin.
“Our senior management should be updated,” he told a packed hall of journalists on Wednesday. “There comes a time when you need to get out of this rut.”
. . .
“If the regime behaves just to increase its own power then this is already partially authoritarian,” Mr Gorbachev said . . . .
Video below of the only man in Russia with the stones to go after Putin.
Posted by: rdbrewer at
06:09 AM
| Comments (227)
Post contains 154 words, total size 1 kb.
Gorbachev found in dumpster in Moscow, film at 11.
Posted by: Sean Bannion at August 18, 2011 06:12 AM (sbV1u)
Posted by: pep at August 18, 2011 06:13 AM (GMG6W)
Gorby better watch what he eats. Bad things happen to guys that critisize Puttie. Just sayin.
I do like seeing pictures of Puttie. He always likes to have his penis focused on via tight tousers. There is something so ALGORE about it.
Posted by: Sub-Tard at August 18, 2011 06:13 AM (0M3AQ)
Gorbachev may be the one man more-or-less immune to such things. Which is why he's the only man with the stones to make these comments.
Because the world isn't quite totally fucked at the moment
Getting rid of Putin would not, in itself, cause any more harm to global stability. It would all depend on who replaced him. Someone a little less expansionist might actually be a good thing.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at August 18, 2011 06:14 AM (8y9MW)
“Our senior management should be updated,” he told a packed hall of journalists on Wednesday. “There comes a time when you need to get out of this rut.”
. . .
“If the regime behaves just to increase its own power then this is already partially authoritarian,” Mr Gorbachev said . . . .
Is Gorby talking about The Poot or the stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure?
Seems to me his works ought to be taken to heart in Washington and Moscow....
Posted by: MrScribbler at August 18, 2011 06:14 AM (YjjrR)
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at August 18, 2011 06:15 AM (RkRxq)
Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at August 18, 2011 06:15 AM (FkKjr)
Posted by: Sub-Tard at August 18, 2011 06:18 AM (0M3AQ)
Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at August 18, 2011 06:18 AM (ZDUD4)
Posted by: The only adult in the dacha at August 18, 2011 10:16 AM (EG/p1)
That was hilarious.
What else did you learn at Columbia? ;-)
Posted by: Sean Bannion at August 18, 2011 06:19 AM (sbV1u)
Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 06:19 AM (kUaEF)
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit at August 18, 2011 06:19 AM (4df7R)
Posted by: weew at August 18, 2011 06:20 AM (7RbIF)
Gorby was a self serving ass.
Everyone claims he was the perfect leader for the time, which is horseshit.
The Soviet Union was going to collapses. After the spending of the Brezhnev era it was all over. They spent all their money on weapons and delivery systems that became obsolete in the 1980s and Reagans fake SDI just put the nail in the coffin for them.
It didn't matter who was running the country from 1986-1991. It's end was inevitable. There was no food, sugar or any consumer products in the stores, even in Moscow. And if you know anything about dictatorships, the capital city always gets the best and most goods. If they couldn't keep stores stocked in Moscow, how could they in Vladivostok, Kiev, or Leningrad.
The only reason why the media give Gorby any air time is because they are desperate to give anyone not named Reagan or Thatcher credit for the relatively peaceful collapse of the Soviet Union
Posted by: Ben at August 18, 2011 06:20 AM (wuv1c)
Posted by: The Dude at August 18, 2011 06:21 AM (M8yfa)
Posted by: nevergiveup at August 18, 2011 06:22 AM (i6RpT)
Exactly. Under Gorby's tenure, the USSR instituted a policy that in the event of a nuclear exchange between the US and USSR, the USSR would drop biological agents (weaponized smallpox, along with some other nasties) amongst the rubble and kill off any potential survivors.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at August 18, 2011 06:22 AM (9hSKh)
No he is out riding his bike with his mom jeans and helmet. The WH spin machine seems to have burned out a bearing or something. Maybe they should read the news before releasing vacations photos of teh won.
Posted by: Sub-Tard at August 18, 2011 06:22 AM (0M3AQ)
Posted by: nevergiveup at August 18, 2011 06:23 AM (i6RpT)
Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at August 18, 2011 06:23 AM (ZDUD4)
Putin is scum. Sure. But all Russian politicians are about the same sort of scum - including Gorbachev. It's just part of Russian culture and has always been so.
Posted by: progressoverpeace at August 18, 2011 06:24 AM (N49h9)
So says the man who ruled at the top of the Soviet Communist Jungle until the economy fell apart so badly he couldn't hang on to power anymore. Make NO mistake - if he could have stayed in power by, say, having every last Moron & Moronette at the AoSHQ killed, all of us would be pushing up daisies right about now.
Oh hell yeah. Gorbachev was as much a monster as all the rest. He just sucked at it more than usual and failed the place up.
There's tapes, of him chatting with staff about - for an instance - the Tiennamen Square protest. Gorb was totally down with rolling tanks over people if it meant keeping order.
He cut loose communism because communism was dragging his ass down and he was hoping he could manage to stay on top without it.
Posted by: Entropy at August 18, 2011 06:24 AM (IsLT6)
Posted by: Captain Hate at August 18, 2011 06:24 AM (houma)
Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at August 18, 2011 06:29 AM (VZ10+)
Well, this is true. If we didn't have Barack Obama, who is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure, in the White House, Putin might not be so openly expansionist. As it is, the main check on Russian aggression is wearing mom-jeans, riding a girls bicycle, at Martha's Vineyard.
Not that he'd actually provide a check on Russian aggression anyway, but he's really the only person able to.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at August 18, 2011 06:30 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: AE at August 18, 2011 06:30 AM (YYjeh)
Gorbachev is immune to polonium.
What do you think that brown spot on his head is?
It's concentrated poison and toxins. He's like Mithridates.
Posted by: Entropy at August 18, 2011 06:30 AM (IsLT6)
I say let 'em go at it. I need some popcornworthy entertainment.
Posted by: F--- Nevada! (I'm AoSHQ's DarkLord©, and I approve this message) at August 18, 2011 06:31 AM (GBXon)
Also, while I hate Putin, does anyone think a real democracy is going to flourish in Russia?
They've been under an autocracy or oligarchy since when, 1547 AD? With a brief 6-7 period of kleptocracy from 1991-1998.
It's a country on the decline. It's birthrate is well below 2.1 kids per family. Russia has had essentially the same number of citizens since 1960. Whereas our population has almost doubled.
In 40 years Russia, like Europe will hardly be considered a great power and will be sparsely populated with the sole exception of major metropolitan areas.
So what does it matter who is running their country? They simply need someone who can prevent total chaos, and if that happens to be Putin, so be it.
Russia is no threat to America now, and will never be again.
They are going to go through a decline over the coming decades, our best hope is that it's peaceful. And if Putin is the man to ensure that, then so be it.
Posted by: Ben at August 18, 2011 06:32 AM (wuv1c)
Posted by: The Robot Devil at August 18, 2011 06:32 AM (136wp)
Remember that when the media was following Gorby around trying to prove that he "really" wasn't a communist, he was the chairman of the communist party. Goes double for his wife, the beautiful Raisa, professor of Marxist economics which is nothing more than collectivist bullshit.
Authoritarian rule comes easy to Russia. They have never been without it.
Posted by: l at August 18, 2011 06:32 AM (kd8U8)
Posted by: EC at August 18, 2011 06:33 AM (GQ8sn)
Wow. HowÂ’s this for an international headline? Oceans receding, planet healingÂ…
Â… not even close clown!
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at August 18, 2011 06:34 AM (RkRxq)
Gee, the same rating agency that said the USA was AAA, downgraded NJ. Hmmmm.
Citing the stateÂ’s failure to make full pension payments and its sluggish economic recovery, Fitch Ratings downgraded New JerseyÂ’s bond rating a notch, ranking it among the lowest in the nation. The move could make it more costly for the state to borrow.
Posted by: The Robot Devil at August 18, 2011 06:36 AM (136wp)
This. Like a Clinton, he can be depended on to do what's best for him.
Posted by: toby928™ at August 18, 2011 06:36 AM (GTbGH)
The stats for the Southern border states are interesting, but couldn't possibly have any linkage to illegal immigration.
Posted by: Hrothgar at August 18, 2011 06:37 AM (yrGif)
He was lucky. They let him off easy...
Posted by: Rasputin at August 18, 2011 06:37 AM (136wp)
Posted by: polynikes at August 18, 2011 06:38 AM (r8Vu0)
Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 06:38 AM (kUaEF)
Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 06:41 AM (kUaEF)
Posted by: DJIA Death Watch at August 18, 2011 06:41 AM (GTbGH)
Posted by: nevergiveup at August 18, 2011 06:41 AM (i6RpT)
This. Like a Clinton, he can be depended on to do what's best for him.
Posted by: toby928™ at August 18, 2011 10:36 AM (GTbGH)
This is true. Of course the problem with predictable is we know what he's going to do, but our government lacks the balls to actually do anything about it when he does something bad. This is largely due to the stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure currently occupying the Oval Office, but there are others to blame, too. For example, the yapping harpy lapdog who was appointed Secretary of State.
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit at August 18, 2011 06:42 AM (4df7R)
Posted by: Hrothgar at August 18, 2011 10:37 AM (yrGif)
I've said for the last two years that the poverty and hunger are going unreported as not to make the lord of the left look worse than he makes himself look. The big problem I have is that when these numbers go un- or under reported, it keeps these people from getting help from private charitable organizations becuase the organizations are unaware of the extent of the problem. For all the compassionate tald from the left, they can really be damned cruel if it means shielding their messiah.
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at August 18, 2011 06:42 AM (RkRxq)
Christ. Part of my job entails sending out an operations update to the Division staff every morning--including the commanding general, his brigadiers, colonels, etc.
I usually start off with
"Sir, Good Morning..."
Today, because of *you people* I almost sent it having absentmindedly typing "Sir, Good Morning Morons."
Which I suppose would be better than ''Sup, Jackwagons!" but not much.
Posted by: Chuck Z at August 18, 2011 06:42 AM (OITDh)
Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at August 18, 2011 10:18 AM (ZDUD4)
*furiously taking notes*
Posted by: Bawney Fwank at August 18, 2011 06:43 AM (v+QvA)
Posted by: Captain Smith at August 18, 2011 06:44 AM (Pjih7)
Russia remained a backward joke even as they rose to military prominence. And there is a huge amount of data that show that the vaunted Soviet military was mostly bluster. We allowed Soviet expansion by abrogating our responsibility.
Look at how quickly Reagan crushed them. I see no difference between the current Russian regime and that of the Soviets.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at August 18, 2011 06:45 AM (LH6ir)
Posted by: Michael Rittenhouse at August 18, 2011 06:45 AM (2Oas0)
Adding to what another said, their tendency to raise funds by selling weapons and weapons tech to anyone that can pay makes them a serious destabilizing force, even if they're not acting directly...
Posted by: F--- Nevada! (I'm AoSHQ's DarkLord©, and I approve this message) at August 18, 2011 06:46 AM (GBXon)
>>>>>I wouldn't quite THAT far...hey STILL have thousands of nukes scattered across an incredibly large country, with piss-poor security all the way around. In the sense of a stray Russian nuke "accidentally" making its way into, say, Al Quaida hands... they remain a BIG security concern.
I should rephrase. The Russian government will never be a threat to America again.
The only threat Russia poses is if it's collapse and decline are chaotic.
As you mentioned, loose nukes are a big concern.
However the Russian government will never again be a military threat to us. It won't challenge us in proxy wars or encroach upon us through puppet governments in our hemisphere.
It's going to spend the next 50 years trying to hold itself together and prevent the chinese from taking over resources rich eastern russia.
Posted by: Ben at August 18, 2011 06:48 AM (wuv1c)
Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 06:48 AM (kUaEF)
Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 06:50 AM (kUaEF)
>>>Adding to what another said, their tendency to raise funds by selling weapons and weapons tech to anyone that can pay makes them a serious destabilizing force, even if they're not acting directly...
Everyone sells weapons to seedy people. We do, China does, Russia does, heck Germany and France arm middle eastern dictators.
I agree that can be destabilizing, but the Russian army, navy or airforce isn't going ot be a threat to us.
If you read some of the after action reports about the Russian invasion of Georgia, it was essentially a cluster fuck. It was more akin to an army of bandits and mercinaries than a disciplined western army.
The Russian military is no longer a threat to us.
Posted by: Ben at August 18, 2011 06:51 AM (wuv1c)
Posted by: polynikes at August 18, 2011 06:51 AM (r8Vu0)
Posted by: Major Kong at August 18, 2011 06:51 AM (Cfao8)
Support, when breached, becomes resistance. Its kinda like a post turtle placed on the ground will never rise again. Turtles can't fly you know.
Posted by: Sub-Tard at August 18, 2011 06:51 AM (0M3AQ)
Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 06:52 AM (kUaEF)
Russia in World War I would have also fared a lot better if the best army leadership hadn't been killed in East Prussia by Hindenburg and Ludendorf at the start of the war. If Russia hadn't been strong armed by the Allies to attack Germany, but had been allow to push south through Austria-Hungary and into the Ottoman Empire to Constantinople things would have been very different. They would have had supply lines to the West, the army wouldn't have disintegrated from being mauled by the Germans, and the Russian economy wouldn't have overheated into collapse.
The Russian economy and army in WWI was robust, contrary to what the later Soviet revisionist historians would portray, it's just that the best leadership was killed off, poor communications prevents the masses of supplies produced from getting to where they were needed and the focus of the offensives at the insistence of the French were on opponents the army couldn't beat. Whenever the Russian army went against the Austro-Hungarian or Ottoman armies, closer to better supply and lines of communication, they smashed them.
Posted by: Blue Falcon in Boston at August 18, 2011 06:52 AM (ijjAe)
Posted by: George Orwell what knows Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure at August 18, 2011 06:52 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: Scott J at August 18, 2011 06:53 AM (/bVuS)
Posted by: cherry π at August 18, 2011 06:53 AM (OhYCU)
Posted by: George Orwell what knows Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure at August 18, 2011 06:53 AM (AZGON)
I can't think of a single place where the trend dropped and then recovered.
I love the idea that it is possible, but...
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at August 18, 2011 06:54 AM (LH6ir)
Coolczech.
I'm at work so i can't search right now, but there is a number at which no modern society has ever recovered from. I think it was 1.48 kids or something like that.
I'll look when i get home tonight.
Keep in mind that Russia, Germany and France all know that their demographic trends are going to lead to ruin. In each country they spend tons of money trying to make child bearing as cost free as possible. Free days care, credits, and i think Russsia even goes as far as to pay you to have kids.
Posted by: Ben at August 18, 2011 06:56 AM (wuv1c)
Could the Dow descent into madness today be related to the terrible attacks in Israel?
(God bless and protect the Israeli people.)
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit at August 18, 2011 06:57 AM (4df7R)
Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 06:57 AM (kUaEF)
Stop the presses... you mean B. Hussein Obama was seen on an actual field of battle? History has two lessons. Napoleon and Hitler were destroyed by Russian armies. They are very able to do serious damage to the west if they decide to do it. They can fight well, they just lack the philosophy to conquer. Who the hell wants to live in a post industrial habbit trail made of bad concrete? Not the sort of thing men die for. Just sayin.
Posted by: Sub-Tard at August 18, 2011 06:57 AM (0M3AQ)
>>>48, Russia would have been shellacks in WWII if it weren't for sheer numbers and the US shipping them supplies. The demographic disaster the country is facing is in great part due to the millions of men it threw into the meat grinders of both World Wars.
Indeed, the Russian theory was that they had more bodies than the germans had bullets.
And in the end they were right.
France never really recovered from WW1 if you look at their birthrate, and Russia and Germany never fully recovered from WW2 and the Cold War.
It wasn't just the men lost in those wars, it was a change in the national psyche.
Posted by: Ben at August 18, 2011 06:58 AM (wuv1c)
Posted by: George Orwell what knows Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure at August 18, 2011 06:58 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 10:48 AM (kUaEF)
I have seen this thought before, but I wonder at its validity. In days past, there was not readily available birth control, subsistence living was the norm, technology was minimal, and large families provided a localized familial work force suitable for survival manual tasks. If the SHTF, the birth control may not be as available (although the Government may well doctor the water supply), but now subsistence living is simply not possible in many areas (NYC), and the burden of getting children old enough to be minimally productive as child laborers seems to be prohibitively expensive. Interesting times lie ahead.
Posted by: Hrothgar at August 18, 2011 06:58 AM (yrGif)
Not that I'd risk it but you never know, maybe some of them lurk here. AOSHQ *is* known as a smart military blog, you know.
Posted by: Retread at August 18, 2011 06:59 AM (G+7cD)
Posted by: SFGoth at August 18, 2011 07:01 AM (dZ756)
Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 07:01 AM (kUaEF)
Posted by: Pravda at August 18, 2011 07:04 AM (EL+OC)
Also, wealth allows you the spare time to invent things like feminism and environmentalism which further depress the birth rate.
Posted by: Ian S. at August 18, 2011 07:04 AM (tqwMN)
Posted by: George Orwell what knows Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure at August 18, 2011 07:05 AM (AZGON)
Hrogthgar,
Indeed. If you want to see high birthrates, you go to poor undeveloped nations.
There is/was a mentality that the poor(an I mean real poor not American poor) have lots of kids. The idea being that many of them will die, so you need to have a lot to ensure a few survive.
The places with these birthrates don't have easy access to healthcare, food, contraceptives, etc etc.
If you look at nations birthrates the first "western" country on the list is Israel which comes in 99th place.
The US is 139, France is 152 and Russia is 166 (out of 195 countries)
Posted by: Ben at August 18, 2011 07:06 AM (wuv1c)
>>> think that, perversely, WEALTH causes population decline
it does, go look at the List of Sovereign States by birthrate. All western nations are at the bottom of the list.
Japan and Germany are in the bottom 5
Posted by: Ben at August 18, 2011 07:07 AM (wuv1c)
I hate to quibble but their number of seventy may be off. They list Alan Grayson, a name that will shock absolutely no one, but the congress is currently being deprived of his services, I believe.
Posted by: WalrusRex at August 18, 2011 07:08 AM (Hx5uv)
Nonsense. Putin has better music videos and spokesmodels. Why would you want to crush them? Their value to us, and our value to them, is a counter balance to China's ambitions. The one thing that haunts the deep inner pysche of Russia is China. They have a 13 time zone border, most of it contiguous with China. They have vast mineral/forest resources and know that China is resource poor with billions of Chinamen to throw at the problem. The best bet Russia has right now for continued existence is to open their markets and frontiers to western (especially American) investment. The only problem they have is they are extremely afraid of not being able to control freedom. The Russian Archetype oscillates between openess and sheer paranoia. Catch them on the openess ascent and good things could occur.
Posted by: Sub-Tard at August 18, 2011 07:09 AM (0M3AQ)
No vandalism. No violence. No Harassment. No Obstruction. No intimidating. No threatening. No Blocking. No Trespassing. Those were just a few of the restrictions placed on members of the local 827 IBEW bargaining unit, their dependents, minors, households and relatives in an injunction signed by NJ Superior Court Justice Mary Beth Rogers last week...
My favorite part of the story, though, is this:
Ironically, section J is one that would normally go without saying, yet is clearly stated:
”(No) Dropping, spreading, throwing, placing or otherwise causing nails, glass, cinder block, spikes, feces, clubs, rocks, screws, or puncture devices of any kind, or other object or debris to be thrown or strewn in, on, or about Verizon’s driveways, parking lots, entrances, exits, vehicles and adjoining roads to any of Verizon’s property or at any work site.”
I really like the inclusion of "feces" as a prohibited substance. Clearly those who filed the injunction know the kind of people they're dealing with.
Why do I post this here without noting it as OT? Because as I was reading this story, it made me think of the Soviet Union. Huh. Wonder why.
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit at August 18, 2011 07:09 AM (4df7R)
This; they may have been stuttering clusterfucks at producing everything else, particularly consumer goods, but they were incredibly proficient in doing this.
Regarding Gorby, I think the one thing he deserves praise for is not supporting the Eastern bloc assholes in 1989 like Honecker and Ceausescu by not sending Soviet troops to prop them up. That, more than anything, is probably what produced relatively bloodless revolutions. He may have done it because he came to grips with what an economic drag they were to Russia but, even so, he was a break from his predecessors.
Posted by: Captain Hate at August 18, 2011 07:10 AM (houma)
Nonsense. They were destroyed by Russian winters. Napoleon reached Moscow which had been burned to the ground ahead of him (it was mostly a wooden city, like Tokyo) until into the 20th century. Similar with Hitler, though he never got to Moscow. If there had been an unusually warm, dry winter, he'd have steamrolled the USSR. The Wehrmacht was the first combined arms military in history. The coordination between armor, artillery, infantry, engineers, and air support was breathtaking. The Wehrmacht was also an incredibly flexible force down to the individual. Germany military doctrine always stressed adapting to situations.
Posted by: SFGoth at August 18, 2011 07:11 AM (dZ756)
Posted by: Ben at August 18, 2011 11:06 AM (wuv1c)
The normal Israeli Jewish family now has around 3 kids. They explain it as wanting just 2 kids for replacement ... plus an extra one as a buffer against terror attacks.
Posted by: progressoverpeace at August 18, 2011 07:12 AM (N49h9)
Posted by: SFGoth
Two things stopped the Germans
1. Lack of tank recovery vehicles
2. Lack of long range bombers
or, and they used long bows..
Posted by: The Robot Devil at August 18, 2011 07:14 AM (136wp)
Posted by: blaster at August 18, 2011 07:15 AM (l5dj7)
Posted by: blaster at August 18, 2011 07:17 AM (l5dj7)
Posted by: Empire of Jeff at August 18, 2011 07:17 AM (lbo6/)
Posted by: blaster at August 18, 2011 07:18 AM (l5dj7)
I think that, perversely, WEALTH causes population decline. The more money we have for vacations and BMW's and houses and crap, the less we want to have kids because we have to give up some of those goodies in order to afford the child his education, and spend our time raising him instead of swimming on the beach in Aruba.
Question.
Anyone know of any modern, western, non-subsidized poor?
Certainly traditional societies (by which I mean, non-modern) are dirt ass poor almost by definition - 'modern' is usually very material - and traditional societies crank out the kids.
Amongst the subsidized class, the subsidized are also very poor - again almost by definition, granted you allow we use poverty as a relative state - and also crank out the kids.
But they are also subsidized to do just that. That new baby gets them out of a 3 bedroom public housing unit and into a 5 bedroom public housing unit (just finished reading an article I think on Protein Wisdom that included that real and not hypothetical scenario, I think it was British) and costs them nothing since they have no income anyway, and rather than having to split up the free shit more ways they actually get more free shit for the kid.
So do poor classes actually reproduce more, or do both non-modern-traditional and also subsidized classes reproduce more, both happening to be poor?
Does the non-subsidized modern-western poor class exist to even check against, however? Perhaps in Switzerland or Poland or something? Anywhere?
Historically, what's the reproduction rate among the rich of traditional non-modern societies? Also very high, compared to modern, eh?
How about polygamous societies, my impression is the richest among them have shit-tons of kids, like 30. Their richness, combined with thier misogyny, largely negate any real personal costs to the men for an excess of children. How does that fit in, or does it?
Posted by: Entropy at August 18, 2011 07:19 AM (IsLT6)
Posted by: George Orwell what knows Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure at August 18, 2011 07:20 AM (AZGON)
SFGoth
I think you're forgetting that the German army was mostly horse-drawn when it aspired to be completely mechanized. Silver lining: horses don't run on scarce gasoline.
Posted by: Beagle at August 18, 2011 07:20 AM (sOtz/)
The one situation they couldn't adapt to was being ordered into Russia.
They were beaten by the weather, by superior Russian artillery, by the attitude of the Russian generals (via Stalin) that the Russian people were a fine first defense that was also disposable, and the vastness of Western Russia. It must be 1000 miles from Berlin to Moscow. Try keeping that supply line intact!
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at August 18, 2011 07:20 AM (LH6ir)
Posted by: Guy Fawkes at August 18, 2011 07:20 AM (4nfy2)
Posted by: SFGoth
Two things stopped the Germans
1. Lack of tank recovery vehicles
2. Lack of long range bombers
or, and they used long bows..
Posted by: The Robot Devil
1. Hitler diverted forces that could and should have driven for Moscow in the Fall of 1941 and toppled Stalin.
2. Von Runstedt wanted to create an army of Ukrainians after seeing the Wehrmacht welcomed as liberators. He proposed driving straight to the Ural mountains and emplacing client armies there. Instead, liquidation efforts began behind the advancing Wehrmacht and Ukrainians joined partisan efforts.
Posted by: Blue Hen at August 18, 2011 07:21 AM (326rv)
Posted by: EC at August 18, 2011 07:21 AM (GQ8sn)
You know it pal, and I do too.
Posted by: Barry the downgrade fairy at August 18, 2011 07:22 AM (4nfy2)
Posted by: Empire of Jeff at August 18, 2011 11:17 AM (lbo6/)
Absolutely. Let's not forget that Gorby was an unrepentant communist for most of his life, and turned into a "statesman" out of necessity.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at August 18, 2011 07:22 AM (LH6ir)
Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 07:24 AM (kUaEF)
94 87 History has two lessons. Napoleon and Hitler were destroyed by Russian armies. They are very able to do serious damage to the west if they decide to do it. They can fight well, they just lack the philosophy to conquer.
Nonsense. They were destroyed by Russian winters. Napoleon reached Moscow which had been burned to the ground ahead of him (it was mostly a wooden city, like Tokyo) until into the 20th century. Similar with Hitler, though he never got to Moscow. If there had been an unusually warm, dry winter, he'd have steamrolled the USSR. The Wehrmacht was the first combined arms military in history. The coordination between armor, artillery, infantry, engineers, and air support was breathtaking. The Wehrmacht was also an incredibly flexible force down to the individual. Germany military doctrine always stressed adapting to situations.
SFGoth - facts are facts. Both Napoleon and Hitler were destroyed by Russian Armies. Without Russian armies on the field neither would have been forced to surrender. The geometric consumption of man and materials required to conquer Russia has a large part to play in it. But remember, Russian armies were in Western Europe to finalize both Napoleon and Hitler ambitions. We and the British could not have been successful without the Eastern Front.
Posted by: Sub-Tard at August 18, 2011 07:24 AM (0M3AQ)
Posted by: GuyfromNH at August 18, 2011 07:25 AM (V7FRF)
This.
Hitler had Europe more-or-less beat until Japan decided to screw with the US. Once we entered the war, the whole thing changed. Now, instead of just loans and materiel, we were sending actual troops over to Great Brittan. Add to that our spanking of Rommel in Africa, and then the surge into Italy, and Hitler could no longer focus on Russia. He focused back on Europe, because he believed (rightly) that Russia wasn't actually a threat to him. He might not be able to take Russia on their home turf, but he'd shattered them enough that they were at least not a threat on that eastern flank.
Sometimes I wonder how ticked off Hitler was at Hirohito over Pearl Harbor.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at August 18, 2011 07:25 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: EC
Demographics. Russia's numbers are cratering, while China has serious problems of her own (though different in nature). There have actually been several border confrontations between China and the USS since 1950.
Russia or anyone cannot do anything 'easily' in that context, short of plastering China with nukes or a large scale conventional war. They of course are doing neither and thus have occaisonal border skimishes and incusions.
Posted by: Blue Hen at August 18, 2011 07:26 AM (6rX0K)
Posted by: Empire of Jeff at August 18, 2011 11:17 AM (lbo6/)
Good point; Putin was Beria v2.0
Posted by: Captain Hate at August 18, 2011 07:26 AM (houma)
Posted by: Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin at August 18, 2011 07:26 AM (ggRof)
Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 07:27 AM (kUaEF)
But inefficiently, and that's part of the problem. The sexual revolution has made western civ suck at reproducing. If a 'welfare queen' has 4 babies with 4 different men, that's tremendously inefficient - it took 5 people to create 4 children.
In poor countries, they crank out children in monogamous pairings (polygamy in the Arab world is rare, since when you have a 1:1 parity between the genders either males need to die en masse or you settle for one), which is the most efficient method.
Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at August 18, 2011 07:28 AM (FkKjr)
Posted by: DJIA Death Watch at August 18, 2011 07:28 AM (GTbGH)
I say we send el JEFfe. With a 1930's style diving suit. And no blow-back suppressor.
(Okay, okay, I denounce myself)
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at August 18, 2011 07:28 AM (8y9MW)
Hey, that's better than the -500 it was for a little while this morning.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at August 18, 2011 07:29 AM (8y9MW)
History has two lessons. Napoleon and Hitler were destroyed by Russian armies. They are very able to do serious damage to the west if they decide to do it. They can fight well, they just lack the philosophy to conquer
Ehhhhh....
Hitler we can quibble about.
However Napoleon at least, was defeated by the Russian weather, not the Russian army.
Posted by: Entropy at August 18, 2011 07:29 AM (IsLT6)
I haven't studied it enough, but I thought the point was the axis thought the US would be kept busy in the Pacific.
Posted by: Puty Pute at August 18, 2011 07:31 AM (4nfy2)
Christ. Part of my job entails sending out an operations update to the Division staff every morning--including the commanding general, his brigadiers, colonels, etc.
I usually start off with
"Sir, Good Morning..."
Today, because of *you people* I almost sent it having absentmindedly typing "Sir, Good Morning Morons."
Which I suppose would be better than ''Sup, Jackwagons!" but not much.
Hilarity would have ensued, I'm sure.
Posted by: Chuck Z at August 18, 2011 10:42 AM (OITDh)
Posted by: Jane D'oh at August 18, 2011 07:32 AM (UOM48)
Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 07:32 AM (kUaEF)
Posted by: nevergiveup at August 18, 2011 07:32 AM (i6RpT)
Posted by: SFGoth
Two things stopped the Germans
1. Lack of tank recovery vehicles
2. Lack of long range bombers
or, and they used long bows..
Posted by: The Robot Devil
103
SFGoth
I think you're forgetting that the German army was mostly horse-drawn when it aspired to be completely mechanized. Silver lining: horses don't run on scarce gasoline.
Posted by: Beagle////
Disclaimer: almost everything I've read in the past 5 years is about the Eastern front, particularly the Wehrmacht. I've even begun reading that stuff in German. I can go on for hours, but I'll respond to these two.
1. Lack of tank recovery vehicles. That certainly hurt, but given how close they did get given one hell of a harsh winter, I don't think it would have mattered if there had been no significant winter. Moreover, they would've been able to adapt Soviet tanks to that purpose. When winter hit, it was over. Everything froze, from men to lubricant to fuel.
2. Lack of long range (assumedly heavy) bombers. Wouldn't have made much difference. Once Hitler controlled western Russia up to the Volga, he wouldn't have needed to smash Russia further, he simply would've need to keep a blocking army in place. He would've had a wealth of resources at his disposal and the USSR would've lost millions of soldiers not easily replaced. Heavy bombers wouldn't have made a difference in Barbarossa anyway. What hurt more was the loss of so many tactical bombers during the Battle of Britain. He sure could've used a few thousand more -- they lost 1,652 total aircraft. Tactical bombers, especially dive bombers, were like flying artillery and were crucial to beating the superior Soviet tanks. Heavies simply would've been an unnecessary drain on resources. Germany never developed heavies because it could never have supported more than a few, not because it lacked the ability to do develop them.
3. Horses. The infantry and infantry support were mostly horse drawn. However, Germany was the first country to have fully independent armor divisions (rather than piecemeal armor out as infantry support) and those formations were fully mechanized/motorized, including support. The bigger problem was the difference in rail gauge between Germany and Russia, forcing Germany to adapt the lines to fit their trains.
Moreover, the Russian "panje" horses, small, strong horses, were quite effective on the Eastern front; indeed, there were actually Siberian panje cavalry units which charged, successfully, on horseback. The difference was Russia, November and December, not Poland, September.
Don't misread what I originally posted. Germany could not have won absent a harsh winter.
Posted by: SFGoth at August 18, 2011 07:32 AM (dZ756)
Small scale border clashes are giving the Russians nervous breakdowns? Wow...
We have shit going down on the US-Mexico border between narco-terrorists and corrupt Mexican LE/military but we don't run and hide. We could permanently "fix" the situation along our border if we really wanted to, but all the PC fallout is holding us back.
Posted by: EC at August 18, 2011 07:32 AM (GQ8sn)
Posted by: SFGoth at August 18, 2011 07:33 AM (dZ756)
However Napoleon at least, was defeated by the Russian weather, not the Russian army.
Posted by: Entropy
We need to remember that Napolean made the decision to retreat because he realized that staying in Moscow wasn't getting him anything, and was also a threat. The Russian army adopted a scorched earth policy that denied him the ability to forage, and russian attacks endangered long supply lines. And he didn't get the grand capitulation that he counted on from taking the capitol city. What people remember was the horrific casualties sustained from exposure, and lack of food. There were several cases of French units being attacked and of trying to make and hold bridge crossing during the retreat.
Posted by: Blue Hen at August 18, 2011 07:35 AM (6rX0K)
Posted by: polynikes at August 18, 2011 07:35 AM (r8Vu0)
The Wehrmacht certainly was not doctrinally flexible, except on their best (early) days under their best commanders. When stressed, the default was orthodoxy, and waiting for orders from above. While it would be pretty to think so, this was not just the result of crazee Nazis farther up the chain, but rather a matter of inculcated -- I will even say inbred -- Prussian bullheadedness. Intelligence was seldom shared. Improvisation was often punished.
At Losheimergraben Station, schoostaboud the entire VI Panzer Armee was proceeding up the rail line. An American first sergeant, with nothing but a platoon to back him up, stepped out onto the tracks, held up his hand, and called "Halt!"
They did.
Posted by: comatus at August 18, 2011 07:38 AM (W5ilH)
Clearly, Hitler's strategic blunders:
1. Genocide against slavs
2. Diverting Army Group Center both north and south at the end of July when Guderian wanted to bolt for Moscow
3. Not planning for winter and winter defense
Posted by: SFGoth at August 18, 2011 07:39 AM (dZ756)
Totally OT, but important.
Reading between the lines of all of the stories on JEF today, I think I have uncovered Barry's sinister campaign strategy:
"Re-elect Obama So He Can Undo the Shitstorm He Created"
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at August 18, 2011 07:40 AM (RkRxq)
137 Look, I don't think anyone here arguing that winter defeated Napoleon and/or Hitler is saying that the soldiers played NO role. That's just focking retarded. However, I'd like someone to thoroughly explain how Operation Typhoon would've failed if the temperature had stayed above freezing with no rain. I look forward to that one.
Clearly, Hitler's strategic blunders:
1. Genocide against slavs
2. Diverting Army Group Center both north and south at the end of July when Guderian wanted to bolt for Moscow
3. Not planning for winter and winter defense
You forgot the diversion to the Balkans that delayed the whole shebang by 6 weeks. Hitler's role model Il Duce got his tit in a ringer and required Germans to pull it out. Sound familiar?
Posted by: Sub-Tard at August 18, 2011 07:41 AM (0M3AQ)
The bulk of the manpower that defeated Napoleon were Russian.
Posted by: Sub-TardBattle of the Nile and Trafalger with one arm, bitches. Suck my pickled prick.
Posted by: Lord Admiral Nelson at August 18, 2011 07:42 AM (TXKVh)
140 G*d help us. Check out the picture of Dear Leader on Drudge.
*facepalm*
The word "CANDYASS" comes to mind.
Posted by: Sub-Tard at August 18, 2011 07:42 AM (0M3AQ)
Posted by: blaster at August 18, 2011 07:42 AM (l5dj7)
*facepalm*
Posted by: Jane D'oh at August 18, 2011 11:41 AM (UOM4
WTF?! Is that a new biking pic?
Posted by: Tami at August 18, 2011 07:43 AM (X6akg)
The bulk of the manpower that defeated Napoleon were Russian.
Posted by: Sub-Tard
Battle of the Nile and Trafalger with one arm, bitches. Suck my pickled prick.
Thats like saying air power won the war. Shoosh, Napoleon didn't need a navy, he had a Continent. Be gone you silly british wanker with bad teeth.
Posted by: Sub-Tard at August 18, 2011 07:44 AM (0M3AQ)
SFGoth - facts are facts. Both Napoleon and Hitler were destroyed by Russian Armies. Without Russian armies on the field neither would have been forced to surrender.
Subtard - Napoleon didn't surrender (to Russia, or in Russia). Wasn't forced to.
He left Russia and went back to Paris.
The problem is his massive, trained, experienced veteran army was destroyed. Mostly from the cold. Many, many, many, many died from starvation and hypothermia and frostbite and pneumonia.
Posted by: Entropy at August 18, 2011 07:45 AM (IsLT6)
Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 07:45 AM (kUaEF)
At Losheimergraben Station, schoostaboud the entire VI Panzer Armee was proceeding up the rail line. An American first sergeant, with nothing but a platoon to back him up, stepped out onto the tracks, held up his hand, and called "Halt!"
They did.
Posted by: comatus
///
Where are you getting this from? First of all, by the time we got to Germany, it was long over and those were worn-out conscripts. Second, have you studied ANY German military history? The entire military culture was centered around the maxim (I'm paraphrasing) that local commanders could do almost anything to implement the strategic vision above them depending on local conditions. This arose before modern communications due to obvious necessity. The Prussian army, the biggest German state, was not able to field traditional infantry armies, so it relied on fast-moving cavalry, and hit-and-run tactics. This requires devolving decision making. Even under Hitler, lower level commanders could take their own tactical initiative. It's not like they were making mass charges like the Soviets did. The Soviets were incapable of any kind of coordinated or out-of-the box thinking almost throughout the war, although the top-level guy (Zhukov, Rokossovsky, etc.) did manage to do so at the army group (front) level. Down at brigade and battalion, same ol' -- artillery barrage then forward march. They lost millions. The German-Russian kill ratio was overwhelmingly in favor of Germany.
Posted by: SFGoth at August 18, 2011 07:45 AM (dZ756)
Allegedly, when things were bleak for his twelve-year reich, Hitler said if he'd known the Russians had over 20,000 tanks he never would have invaded. So I'd add intel failure to the list of German problems.
Also, no Gertie the Riveter in Germany.
Trying to make the Me-262 into a bomber slowed it for a couple years.
Lack of standardization: too many types of things instead of making lots of the good fighters, artillery, assault guns, and tanks.
The list is long. How the Germans lost is probably one of the most theorized topics in modern history.
Posted by: Beagle at August 18, 2011 07:46 AM (sOtz/)
Posted by: blaster at August 18, 2011 07:46 AM (l5dj7)
Whose the doofus in the bike helmet in front of him?
Posted by: The Robot Devil at August 18, 2011 07:46 AM (136wp)
That's why I'm setting up my own Russian Mail Order bride scam company for Morons. All Morons get a 10% discount off their application fee of $10,000.
Posted by: EC at August 18, 2011 07:46 AM (GQ8sn)
Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at August 18, 2011 07:46 AM (gan7Z)
Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 07:46 AM (kUaEF)
You forgot the diversion to the Balkans that delayed the whole shebang by 6 weeks. Hitler's role model Il Duce got his tit in a ringer and required Germans to pull it out. Sound familiar?
Posted by: Sub-Tard///
This had been discredited. The spring thaw was unusually wet and late. Germany couldn't have gotten going any sooner because the ground wouldn't have supported tanks and the rivers were too swollen.
Posted by: SFGoth at August 18, 2011 07:46 AM (dZ756)
Posted by: Fritz at August 18, 2011 07:46 AM (/ZZCn)
Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 07:47 AM (kUaEF)
What did the FSB chief say after Gorby was found in a ditch with 5 bullets in his head?
"Worst case of suicide I ever saw."
Posted by: Spiker at August 18, 2011 07:47 AM (gh6F5)
Posted by: nevergiveup at August 18, 2011 07:48 AM (i6RpT)
Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 07:48 AM (kUaEF)
Posted by: Jane D'oh at August 18, 2011 07:49 AM (UOM48)
I thought the same thing when I saw it. Looks like a girl's bike to me. He looks so ridiculous. What a pansy visual.
Posted by: Lady in Black at August 18, 2011 07:49 AM (ycuSb)
Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 07:50 AM (kUaEF)
The word "CANDYASS" comes to mind.
Posted by: Sub-TardYou're right! The Precedent is riding the Huffy Candy Ass girl's 9 speed bicycle! Nine speed because double digits are hard.
Posted by: Dang at August 18, 2011 07:50 AM (TXKVh)
Posted by: Empire of Jeff at August 18, 2011 07:50 AM (lbo6/)
Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 07:51 AM (kUaEF)
Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at August 18, 2011 07:51 AM (gan7Z)
Yeah, yeah! I get it. Smart diplomacy. I can see all of the shit being thrown at JEF. He deserves it and more. But to have people suddenly nostalgic for Hillary? Holy shiite pedophile! She has presided over a foreign policy Armageddon, for crying out loud! Certainly Barry is the author of this clusterfuck of a foreign policy - extended hand, receder of oceans, healer of planets yada, yada, but the Smartest Woman in the World? Give me a f—king valium.
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at August 18, 2011 07:51 AM (RkRxq)
Precious.
Posted by: lu at August 18, 2011 07:52 AM (Tvo0h)
__________
Hitler didn't want them liberated, or even enslaved; he wanted them dead.
Posted by: Anachronda at August 18, 2011 07:52 AM (NmR1a)
Hehe...you know George Bush would be running that same trail on foot. No fucking bicycle for him!
Also, Bike Helmet Obama reminds me of that Mike Myers SNL skit of the ADHD kid tethered to a playground. ROFL!!!!
Posted by: EC at August 18, 2011 07:52 AM (GQ8sn)
Thanks, you pussy-assed 52%ers.
Posted by: Jane D'oh at August 18, 2011 07:53 AM (UOM48)
Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 11:51 AM (kUaEF)
I know!....and since he did this before to so much ridicule, I cannot believe he did it....AGAIN! That's why I asked the question.
Someone on his staff HAS to hate him.
Posted by: Tami at August 18, 2011 07:53 AM (X6akg)
Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at August 18, 2011 11:51 AM (gan7Z)
And then, stomp it dry.
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at August 18, 2011 07:53 AM (RkRxq)
Posted by: blaster at August 18, 2011 07:53 AM (l5dj7)
Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 07:54 AM (kUaEF)
This week on The Deadliest Warrior...
That show sucks, btw.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at August 18, 2011 07:54 AM (9hSKh)
I didn't know Stockman was still alive.
Posted by: Abe Vigoda at August 18, 2011 07:55 AM (GTbGH)
Posted by: Barney Frank at August 18, 2011 07:55 AM (kUaEF)
Posted by: blaster at August 18, 2011 07:56 AM (l5dj7)
Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 11:51 AM (kUaEF)
He always looks like that, to me. He looked like he fit right in with that picture with the kiddies, yesterday. He's a child. A nasty, stupid, psychotic child who is looking to burn the house down while his parents are asleep ... but a child, nonetheless. It's only when he opens his mouth that we realize that, while he's a child, he is actually infantile in his thoughts and behavior.
Barky should be on a trike. That's about his speed.
Posted by: progressoverpeace at August 18, 2011 07:56 AM (N49h9)
Posted by: Pay your f*ckin bills, B! at August 18, 2011 07:57 AM (0tRzD)
Posted by: blaster at August 18, 2011 07:57 AM (l5dj7)
Posted by: Dang at August 18, 2011 07:58 AM (TXKVh)
Heh.
Most parents at some point end up putting a bike together for their kids. Can you even imagine him trying to do this? The f-bombs that must have ensued while reading the directions. Hell, he can't even work an umbrella.
Posted by: lu at August 18, 2011 07:58 AM (Tvo0h)
Take a guess who won that matchup?
I hope you are kidding...the IRA?
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at August 18, 2011 07:59 AM (9hSKh)
Posted by: blaster at August 18, 2011 07:59 AM (l5dj7)
Posted by: Fritz at August 18, 2011 07:59 AM (/ZZCn)
Posted by: Pay your f*ckin bills, B! at August 18, 2011 07:59 AM (niW49)
Posted by: CoolCzech at August 18, 2011 10:48 AM (kUaEF)
It could, but it's not assured either. Decline in birthrates represents a change in the culture, and while it's possible to reverse such, it's not easy and I'm not sure it just happens by itself.
Posted by: KG at August 18, 2011 08:00 AM (LD21B)
What people remember was the horrific casualties sustained from exposure, and lack of food. There were several cases of French units being attacked and of trying to make and hold bridge crossing during the retreat.
I will make the argument that, had the temperature stayed above freezing with no rain the French retreat to Vilnius and back would have left Napoleon with an army capable of defending France.
Posted by: Entropy at August 18, 2011 08:00 AM (IsLT6)
Posted by: lu at August 18, 2011 11:55 AM (Tvo0h)
Thanks Lacey...that was my original question.
Posted by: Tami at August 18, 2011 08:00 AM (X6akg)
They did George Washington vs Napoleon the other week. *double sigh, and double fail*.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at August 18, 2011 08:00 AM (9hSKh)
No fucking joke. And yes.
Next most ridiculous matchup I saw: Vietcong vs Nazis
Posted by: EC at August 18, 2011 08:00 AM (GQ8sn)
I thought it looked too much like the pic from last year. Even Barky can't be that stupid, but give him a day or so, maybe he'll surprise me.
Posted by: Retread at August 18, 2011 08:00 AM (G+7cD)
Posted by: blaster
Stockman loves him some nut rolls.
Posted by: Dang at August 18, 2011 08:01 AM (TXKVh)
Posted by: Jane D'oh at August 18, 2011 08:01 AM (UOM48)
Posted by: Grocery Bill? Have some cake and calm down. at August 18, 2011 08:02 AM (niW49)
Perhaps Kal Penn has a few of those.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at August 18, 2011 08:02 AM (9hSKh)
Michelle won't let him eat one.
Now that's poor wording for this place...
Posted by: Retread at August 18, 2011 08:04 AM (G+7cD)
Everyone knows he's freaking nuts. But half the population gets upset at you for pointing it out because they love his candy. Posted by: Pay your f*ckin bills, B!
If Willy Wonka made shit instead of chocolate, you analogy would work.
Posted by: Dang at August 18, 2011 08:05 AM (TXKVh)
$5 says he'd slather it with mayo, lick it clean, and then eat it.
Posted by: Dang at August 18, 2011 08:08 AM (TXKVh)
What stopped Herr Hitler's armies from reaching Moscow? How about the month and a half he wasted clearing out the balkans. Barbarossa was initially scheduled to start en eary may 1941.
What caused hitler to clear out the balkans? Why msr. moussilinis little greek adventure.
The western world owes msr. moussilini very big debt of thanks.
Posted by: GMB at August 18, 2011 08:10 AM (wY55N)
In poor countries, they crank out children in monogamous pairings (polygamy in the Arab world is rare, since when you have a 1:1 parity between the genders either males need to die en masse or you settle for one), which is the most efficient method.
That's not my understanding of polygamy. I'm sure it's not in full force practice in every single household in the whole middle east..
But where you do have polygamy, what you usually get (because of the 1:1 parity factor you mention) is that the rich men gobble up a disproportionate share of the women, and so have a disproportionate share of the kids too.
1:1 parity between men and women does not mean every guy winds up with a woman on average, because societies don't order themselves according to efficiency. 3 poor fellows are liable to have 0 women while 1 powerful fellow has 3.
In a place like a FLDS compound, the rich and powerful are more likely to reproduce than the poor who get locked out.
And when too many young single guys have no access to women because the rich geezers robbed all the cradles, someone "die en masse"ing is usually what happens.
Posted by: Entropy at August 18, 2011 08:11 AM (IsLT6)
My favourite was Taliban vs. IRA.
Take a guess who won that matchup?
Posted by: EC
My stepdaughter announced this to me last night! There's some familial pride involved here.
Posted by: Papist bograt at August 18, 2011 08:14 AM (326rv)
Posted by: Entropy at August 18, 2011 08:29 AM (IsLT6)
We have a lot of evidence that they can go down a lot fairly quickly. And fairly quickly means 10-20 years. So not exactly on a dime, but one generation to the next attitudes can change the can go from 7 kids per woman to 5, and then 5 to 3 in the next gen, then 3 to <2.
But we've never seen them go up dramatically over any length of time. The best is the Baby Boom. We went from low 2s to mid 3s over about 20 years. But then dropped back to low 2s within 15 years.
Almost every country has shown a fertility rate collapse as they've gotten richer. So baby busts have happened hundreds of times all over the world from many different times. The rates go low and stay low.
We only have one historical example of a baby boom that reversed that for any length of time. And the fertility rate reverted to even lower than pre-baby boom within 40 years. And the precipitating event that sparked that Baby Boom was the global War to End All Wars, followed by an economic boom on steroids.
Population trends don't turn on a dime. And of all the predictions we can make about the future, demographic trends are one of the most reliable.
Posted by: Clubber Lang at August 18, 2011 08:30 AM (QcFbt)
Posted by: Advo at August 18, 2011 08:34 AM (7vbG1)
How do you suppose he views that stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure - President Obarky? Do you think Putin rolls on the floor laughing at the thought of a personal confrontation with Teh Won? Yeah, me too.
Posted by: An Observation at August 18, 2011 08:42 AM (ylhEn)
Posted by: SFGoth at August 18, 2011 08:45 AM (dZ756)
We have a lot of evidence that they can go down a lot fairly quickly. And fairly quickly means 10-20 years. So not exactly on a dime, but one generation to the next attitudes can change the can go from 7 kids per woman to 5, and then 5 to 3 in the next gen, then 3 to <2.
Population trends don't turn on a dime. And of all the predictions we can make about the future, demographic trends are one of the most reliable.
We cannot predict the number of rabbits there will be next year in Kentucky. Reproduction of rabbits is non-linear and way too damn complex. Humans are more complex than rabbits.
As a simple matter of fact, we have a lot of evidence that population trends can do whatever they want - we can't predict them. We really can't. We try... but it's like the weather. No one's ever been right, not really.
But we've never seen them go up dramatically over any length of time. The best is the Baby Boom. We went from low 2s to mid 3s over about 20 years. But then dropped back to low 2s within 15 years.
No... the best is the Baby Boom perhaps, among the modernized west. But the modern world isn't very old either. Certainly if you go back far enough you'll find bigger booms in the west, before it was modern. And you'll find bigger booms in other parts of the world even now, parts that aren't modern. But population booms that dwarf the hell out of the Baby Boomers do indeed happen, and Europeans aren't excluded from them, they just haven't had one bigger than the baby boom in the short modern period.
Almost every country has shown a fertility rate collapse as they've gotten richer. So baby busts have happened hundreds of times all over the world from many different times. The rates go low and stay low.
This is interesting. But...
Is there any country that has shown a trend toward being richer and a trend toward industrialization but not a trend toward socialism?
Is there any country that has shown a trend toward being richer but not toward industrialization for that matter?
What happened to birth rates in those places (if they exist)? Especially if you factor out for things like China's 1 child policy.
Let me pull out wikipedia and take 1 halfass stab at it....
India has a growth rate of 1.4% - that is, a NET growth rate not a replacement rate. 22 births for 6 deaths every year, 31% of the population is under 14.
8.5% GDP growth.
The GDP since 1995 has septupled, while the population went up about 15%.
Posted by: Entropy at August 18, 2011 08:48 AM (IsLT6)
Posted by: SFGoth at August 18, 2011 12:45 PM (dZ756)
So we're supposed to respond to an impossible situation and then be embarrassed by an answer you assumed? Surely there are better ways to make your point.
Posted by: Captain Hate at August 18, 2011 08:51 AM (houma)
Actually, at FLDS they drive boys out by being tremendously harsh with them to get the ratio where they want. Men aren't good about 'going without' a woman. It's a recipe for disorder. The more men they keep, the closer the ratio needs to be to 1:1.
Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at August 18, 2011 09:19 AM (FkKjr)
Deer Gorby: you may want to add some prussian blue supplements to your diet. You wouldn't want to get any nasty Polonium 210 posioning...
Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie © at August 18, 2011 09:44 AM (1hM1d)
But the ratio isn't 1:1 because they don't keep all the men.
I've read of dudes in Africa having like thousands of kids and wives.
You can't ignore the power dynamic. Women aren't handed out as a social product in the most efficient reproductive way. Many poor men cannot afford a single wife, and those women are instead taken by wealthier men who can afford several.
And yes, it is a recipe for disorder. I'm not saying anything different. It's just that - well yes, there is in fact a lot of disorder in the mideast, as well as in places like China.
Posted by: Entropy at August 18, 2011 09:45 AM (IsLT6)
Case in point - in Jordan. Just read an article I googled up about pro vs. anti polygamy groups in Jordan.
Apparently unmarried women are on the rise in Jordan (despite polygamy!). The polygamists say polygamy is needed to marry off all those women.
The anti-polygamists say the reason for the uptick in the unmarried is because the cost of marriage is so high and many can't afford to get married in Jordan.
Well there you go. Exactly.
Posted by: Entropy at August 18, 2011 09:49 AM (IsLT6)
Posted by: Suzy at August 18, 2011 09:52 AM (v8R4r)
Posted by: steevy at August 18, 2011 10:50 AM (xUr/v)
Many factors contributed to Napoleon's loss in Russia. I would say the primary one was logistics.
He went in assuming he would be able to forage for the majority of his army's supply needs, as well as assuming he would sustain at least a 10% attrition loss due to desertion and disease.
When the Russians retreated and used scorched earth tactics instead of fighting him, his forage rate plummeted and his attrition rate soared. They were bad enough as his marched to Moscow, and became catastrophic when he had to retreat. In that respect, the Russian winter merely exacerbated a flawed plan already made worse by a superior defensive plan.
Hitler's defeat in Russia was also due to multiple problems whose synergystic effects combined to overwhelm him.
He changed his plan, he refused to use Ukrainians and others and instead drove many to partisan activities, he refused to plan properly for winter, he underestimated the raw strength of the Soviet T-34s (even though his armies had tactical superiority), the Soviets were motorized through lend-lease, and more.
One of those could have been overcome, all of them together could not, even with Stalin's incompetence working in Hitler's favor.
As for Gorbachev, I read his book years back. He really came across as believing in it. Even communists have idealists, so for him to be more than a bit disappointed in Putin is not outrageous. And since he was brought down by the very openness he believed in, it is not strange that he would hope to bring Putin down the same way.
He will likely wind up in a dumpster as Putin looks to be considerably more bloodthirsty than Gorbachev was, but that's how it goes sometimes.
Posted by: Sam at August 18, 2011 11:02 AM (V9Tsq)
Posted by: Bonhoeffer Audiobook at August 18, 2011 04:02 PM (MBDKH)
Posted by: GHD Straighteners at August 19, 2011 01:04 AM (ZzqXu)
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Mikhail Gorbachev, the former Soviet leader, has called for a change of Russia’s leadership and criticised the ruling monopoly of the United Russia party as a “worse version of the Soviet Communist party”.

Posted by: Blue Hen at August 18, 2011 06:12 AM (6rX0K)