1 DOW closes... UP 420?! What is that all about? Fed must be monkeying around.

2 I dunno if it's going to get lower. Anybody who can't see what an acute schmuck the president is now is probably too obtuse to ever figure it out.

3 So King Putt's ratings are in the shitter... for now. It's still a mighty long way to November '12.

4

When you can't lie to yourself, anymore, you can't lie to the pollster.

5

If Barry's approval rating sinks fast enough, the rest of the Democrats will want to dump him for some new guy.  (See also the rumblings about a primary challenger or a back-room deal.)

Best case scenario?  Dem-controlled Senate impeaches him over Libya.

There's no way Slow Joe could be worse, and even talk of impeachment would harm Barry's legacy. 

(When I dream, I dream *big*.)

6 That doesn't mean I'm cheering for him,

7 Bullshit!

8 It is my recollection -- this is my gut -- that public opinion began to soften on the Iraq War after about a year, and then, after the second year, maybe 24 or 30 months in, turned against Bush and the War.

I think you are confusing "public opinion" with "Democrat opinion" in Congress. The Republicans forced then to vote on the war just before the election. Most of them voted "for" it because of the election.

After the election they were all uniformly against it even though they voted for it. 

All because Bush lied and shit.

9 I think it is beginning to dawn on all but the seriously delusional progressive that obama is just not up to the task. Now our job, is to drive that point home.

10 I think it could go lower, down to 38%, which I assume is more or less the ceiling for his support. But more importantly -- I just added this in an update -- we might stop seeing his approval rate creep back up. There is like 6% of the population (I'm just eyeballing this) which seems to swing back and forth, sometimes supporting him, sometimes disapproving; that swing 6% might finally just be lost.

11

1DOW closes... UP 420?! What is that all about? Fed must be monkeying around.

---

420 eh....hehe

-----

Back on topic. It took the left 2 years of daily lies and treasonous activity to turn public opinion on the war. I was never FOR rebuilding, just bombing them to oblivion.

12 Obama is floating (like a grinning idiot) in the media's vertical wind tunnel. If they ever cut power to the fans...

13

I think it will be difficult to spot really. 

See with Iraq the support may have done what you think happened (sudden change) or maybe it did what your research shows (steady decline)  but I think the switch would be more identifiable by the MBM. 

At some point they went from supportive/neutral to "hostile" and they probably did have that ready as a sharp turn, probably some dipshit at cnn or the NYT going "ok when support drops to below ##% we can stop being nice and really start attacking Bush on it like we want to."

With Obama you will see an opposit tactic.  Whether its steady or sharp the media will fight the truth of the public turning against the Messiah with every tactic they can.

14 Back when Iraq was growing unpopular I somewhere read this guys interesting take on Americans and 2 year wars.

2 year war rule Dave Schneider

I wanted to give you a bit of an idea.  I teach history at a community college in New Jersey and part of my lecture regarding US History is an explanation of what I consider to be the American reaction to warfare.  It is a synergy of two principles.  The first is the "1/3 Rule" as explained by John Adams during the Revolutionary War.  They second is my rule on American war spirit, which I call the "Two Year Rule".  How they work is thus:
 
John Adams once said that only about 1/3 of the American people were for the Revolution, 1/3 were neutral and 1/3 were against it.
 
This split is still the functioning system of the American electorate today.  About 1/3 are hard core Democrat, 1/3 are hard core Republican and 1/3 are "swing" voters.
 
When a war breaks out, the swing 1/3 can be expected, if the provocation is sufficient, to swing to the side of the war, causing it to be prosecuted.  However, once a war starts, the "2-year Rule" begins.  Because no matter what the provocation, no matter what the reasoning, 1/3 of the population already opposes it and will begin immediately to attempt to end it, regardless of any other fact.
 
The 2-year rule states that majority support for a war will last a maximum of two years.  This is because most Americans are not warlike in nature and only react after provocation.  As time passes, the provocation loses its strength and the neutral 1/3 begins to swing naturally to opposition to the war.  After two years, unless the war is clearly heading for outright victory, anti-war movements gain enough strength to serious effect the conduct of the war or even cause it to end.
 
These are the proofs:
 
The Revolution was an exception.  It lasted longer than two years due to the determination of the minority to prosecute the war combined with the decentralized nature of the government.  The neutrals and anti-war Tories were unable to influence the leaders of the rebellion because there was no real centralized government to influence - the Continental Congress was totally controlled by the war faction and there were no elections.
 
The War of 1812 ran dangerously close to the 2-year Rule.  By 1814, the anti-war feeling in New England had reached the point that a congress of those states held in Hartford, CT was on the verge of declaring secession and seeking a separate peace with England.  I believe that the willingness of the U.S. government to accept a peace which did almost nothing except establish status quo ante was given impetus because of the fear of disunion over the war.
 
The Mexican War was too short to run into the 2-year rule and was quickly crowned with victory so that although the anti-war movement was rapidly growing in strength towards the end of that conflict, it never got a chance to end it.
 
The American Civil War was torn with anti-war activity.  Draft Riots throughout the north, large scale desertion in the south.  Lincoln himself was doubtful of reelection and the Republicans did lose many seats in the Congress.  It was only the Northern victories of the second half of 1863, the feeling of many that the North would win and the voting support of Lincoln by the Union Army kept the Republicans in power.
 
The Spanish-American War, the "splendid little war" only lasted a few months and didn't generate much opposition.
 
The First World War saw the Wilson Administration from the very start take strong steps to crush opposition, jailing many who would oppose the war.  Further, the American phase of that war didn't last two years, so again anti-war movements were unable to get traction.
 
The Second World War was also a partial exception.  The Roosevelt Administration took massive steps to silence opposition, even to the point of exiling suspect ethic groups to "camps".  However, WWII by the time where the 2-year Rule would be effecting (late 1943) it was so obviously heading for a victory that most people continued to support it.
 
Korea was a prime example of these two principles working.  In two years, the opposition to this war became so great that the Truman Administration was unable to even consider running for reelection and the Democratic Party candidate (the party of the war) was crushed by the Eisenhower campaign which promised to end the war.
 
Vietnam is another prime example.  The anti-war movement forced Johnson out of office and it led to the election of Nixon.  But Nixon failed to end the war fast enough and so it turned on him, so much so that the majority of my students come into my history class believing that the Vietnam war was the fault of Richard Nixon.
 
The Iraq war is also becoming a prime example.  With no clear-cut victory and no clear-cut end, the hostility to the war, regardless of the reasons for it, has grown to the point where the party in power has be removed by the electorate.
 
Thus, the lesson to be learned is clear.  The U.S. can not go into any war without majority support and at the same time, the war must be concluded, within two years.
 
Iraq therefore is doomed.  ItÂ’s been over two years and the majority now opposes it, regardless of the consequences.

Dave Schneider

15

OT :

Format Suggestion for 'The Five'. 

Each segment starts with a waiter rolling in a cart with a large covered tray. 

The cover is removed to reveal a turkey with all the dressing, a suckling pig, or a sizeable entre for a family of 5. 

 Beckel can't talk or comment until he finishes the dish.

16 How can my ratings be in the toilet? I have a Nobel Peace Prize!

17 Does Abu Grahib fit into your timeline?  That's when I noticed a big shift.

18 Has Obama Met His Economic Sadr City?

*ahem* Waterloo?

19 Obama is WINNING. Market capitalists are losing. Lenin (and Alinsky) would be very proud of their ideological heir. Those still speaking against their inner voice that this illegal alien is anything but a revolutionary communist doing exactly as his sponsors (like the people who got him his Connecticut social security number) would have him do, are whistling past the graveyard.

20

Back off topic. Fed has promissed (haha) to keep interest rates at near 0%.

This lets the banks take that free money and flip it into t-bills for a guaranteed profit.

Hence the rally.

 

Happy days aren't here again as it will still take an act of congress for the average person to get in on that action for things like qualifying for a loan and stuff.

21 I certain find the continued support for Obama's performance to be remarkable to say the least, i.e. that is even in double digits. But I recall the brief period when the shift in attitude for the War in Iraq began. It was when Abu Grabazz came to light and the Bush Admin and grandstanding Congressman like Lynsey Graham spent weeks submission piddling on (inter)national TV. Bush should have just said, "I have confidence that the military will handle it and no further comments." Period. The national orgy of apologetics over the rascally misdeeds of a handful of Americans handed the left and radical islam a public opinion club to bash us over the head with and initiated the erosion.

22 1 DOW closes... UP 420?! What is that all about? Fed must be monkeying around.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at August 09, 2011 04:59 PM (UlUS4)

No, Obama's speech worked!  We're saved!

23

Posted by: Shiggz at August 09, 2011 05:05 PM (v8Pb

 

Does that count for Kinetic Military Actions, or just declared wars?

Because two years gets me passed the next election cycle if it does.

 

24

 Beckel can't talk or comment until he finishes the dish.

I really wish they had gone with dumb bell Kirsten Powers or Howard Dean's old campaign manager for the liberal seat at the table.

I cant stand that blowhard.  He's given way to much time to speak for being only one of five.

25 We have a nation in economic crisis, and three wars with other "engagements" for the last 10 years.

We're tired. 

One of two things will happen:  we'll breathe deep, ranger up and take the hill, or we'll quit.

Pretty much it.

26 the significance of Sadr City is that there was an entrenched, here-to-fore unknown "thingie" that was screwing up the Iran War works. So Us, the People, learned something. - with Obama, it's kind of different - nobody believes that Obama has the ability to plan, let alone execute a plan. Imagine Mike Dukakis leading the Tank column.

27 40% seems to be Barry's firewall of support, which includes clueless independents. If he breaks below 40%, then I think Ace will have his tipping point. I expect Barry will do nothing but pander to his base to avoid that break-through, for example his announcement of higher efficiency standards for heavy trucks. He got a deal earlier with the manufacturers for the new car standards. Does anyone know where the authority for this latest round is found? Or is this just another extra-constitutional EO?

28 We don't joke about tipping points here on Guam.

29 The Iraq War went sideways opinion wise at Abu Graib. (I don't care if I spelled it right.)

30 Shit, it's my inner voice again. Guess I've been forgetting my meds.

31 When you don't care about your ratings, or what non-believing Bourgeois think, you are quite free to bring down the wicked inequities of the Imperialist American Great Satan.

32

This lets the banks take that free money and flip it into t-bills for a guaranteed profit.

 

As long as they toe the line...

33 More like Obama's Stalingrad.  Or maybe Kursk.

34

No president can diss the public, divide the country and destroy the economy and hope to be elected.  The tide turned for Obama when he jumped the shark and revealed his true "face."  That happened when he said, "I don't have all the facts but the police acted stupidly...and have a record of bigotry and racism."

 

I recall in 1980 when the media told us the race was too close to call.  I knew that Carter was toast when all my coworkers, in an ultra liberal culture, wouldn't admit to having voted for the Peanut King.  Sure enough my dinner date to weatch the polls was abruptly changed when Carter gave up at 7pm because of the landslide.

 

We will hear the same thing about this race.  But Obama will not take any new states but will lose the red states he took the last time plus states like PA and Michigan and maybe Wisconsin.  He is looking at a massive loss.

 

However the Fed is playing politics announcing it will not do anything till after the election.  Just one more reason to abolish the Fed.

35 I think Bawney Fwanks fawt is the death knell of Owbama's term.

36 Oh shit. I thought we fenced the area under the bridge.

37 Obama Fever! Catch it today!

38 Best case scenario?  Dem-controlled Senate impeaches him over Libya.

Not a chance in hell. Dems will never impeach a Dem, ever.

As for opposition to the war, there wasn't any by the public. They were opposed to "nation building" because one of Bush's campaign promises was no nation building.

39 #22 - Dow closed up because the Fed promised to keep interest rates low through mid-2013. The Fed NEVER issues that kind of guidance. Good news for businesses = SOMETHING is certain for the next year +. Bad news for Obama = that means the Fed is absolutely certain that the economy is going to bad until Obama is kicked out of office.

40 Obama could perform an Aztec sacrifice on the Capitol Dome and the Dems wouldn't impeach him.

Never.

In fact, if there was a higher office than President, they would elect him to that as well.

41 Posted by: Shiggz at August 09, 2011 05:05 PM (v8Pb

That's actually not terrible reasoning.  Political pundits call it (I think) "war fatigue" and it is about 2 years.

I would posit that he's slightly incorrect in counting the Revolution, but everything else more-or-less holds up.  Of course, he ended up being wrong about Iraq, and he never mentioned Afghanistan, so there's that.

I do think it's a good rule of thumb, and a good reason (along with the humanitarian ones which are obvious if one thinks for 15 minutes) for going in "guns blazing" and just bombing our enemies back into barbarism.

42 Back on topic, blacks, the hard left, and union families form a hard floor for Bambi. I don't know their numbers but they're well organized and vote consistently. Thus Bambi will never fall below 35-38%, barring a clusterfuck so monumental that even the NYT can't ignore it.

43 Having lived through Carter the parallels between him and Obama are becoming clearer everyday. More importantly, it is my sense, supported by recent polling numbers and hit pieces on the president penned by normally supportive writers like Dowd, that Obama is cementing his image as a hapless incompetent in the Oval Office. If this is true, and this image is widespread, then Obama is well and truly fucked, along with his "progressive" base. Once that image of haplessness is in place, it is near impossible to break--see Carter, Jimmy. The potential silver lining, assuming we survive just long enough as a nation, is that an entire generation of Americans will view liberal policies with disdain and usher in a new era of conservatism. Hope and change we can believe in!

44 I think you're thinking of the "tipping point".

Something goes steadily, but quietly, and then it hits the tipping point and everything is different. The change at that point might be miniscule, but everything is different.

After the tipping point, it was okay to be against the war in Iraq, before it wasn't.

I would suggest that's why you remember a clean break.

45 If you think public support is bad now, wait until the economy continues to slide and we have 6 months of Fast & Furious Congressional hearings. He will be primaried.

46 I wonder if there is a bias in the polls, where there are people not willing to say they disapprove of the first black President out of fear of appearing racist.

47

I don't think Americans are ever against fighting a war.

...sitting on our hands during one, well, that's another matter.

48 >1 DOW closes... UP 420?! What is that all about? Fed must be monkeying around.


The "president" decided to shut up and muzzle that nitwit Carney.

49 40 Obama could perform an Aztec sacrifice on the Capitol Dome and the Dems wouldn't impeach him.

Never.

In fact, if there was a higher office than President, they would elect him to that as well.

Posted by: sifty at August 09, 2011 05:14 PM (ECjvn)

^^^ this

The only thing more abhorrent to a dem than freedom is when one of them turns on the other.  These fuckers eat their own.

50
While Obama is at a low point and his lack of leadership is striking, wouldn't now be a good time for one or all of the GOP candidates to step up and be noticed?

51 As Rush said yesterday, Obama is a Debt Man Walking.  No way Barky gets re-elected.

52 24, It has just occured to me that Gutfeld may be the smartest one at FOX. He just made the comment that Obama was a man without principle and the Tea Party is Principle without a Man. That's pretty cool.

53 I think that two of the factors at play here are people's reluctance to confess their dislike for Obama, even to themselves, for fear of being racist and the cold, hard reality that Obama's Marxist policies do not work and will never work. 

I suspect that once in the voting booth that many people will overcome their reluctance to dislike him for fear of racism for the simple reasons that their lives are going to hell.  I expect much of Obama's support will vanish in the voting booth when stark choices have to be made.

Obama's bigger problem is that the Church of the Holy Socialism will abandon Obama if he can't make socialism work.  The mere fact that socialism has never worked anywhere or anywhen, is of no consequence.  The Messiah has come and if Obama can't make it work, it must be Obama's fault because socialist theory is more than perfect, more than beautiful, it is the triumph of social science and social justice over the evils of capitalism.  It cannot be questioned!  As Obama becomes less popular for numerous reasons, a tidal wave will break away from him as the socialists realize that he is not the Golden Unicorn that they can ride to a socialist utopia.  Of course, many will nevertheless vote for him because the Republican, whosoever he or she may be, will be a fascist oppressor but many others will either vote for some radical Marxist clown or simply stay home smoking dope and masturbating to their version of free government money falling gently from the sky.

54

Back on topic, blacks, the hard left, and union families form a hard floor for Bambi.

Don't forget single women (70 to 29 for Owaffle so not quite as hard as blacks, mostly because their turnout won't be as high in 12 as in 08 I reckon) and swpl, although many of those could be put in your hard left catagory.

 

55 I think you are right Ace.  For most supporters of someone, anyone, it usually takes someone they trust to start questioning and then after awhile they themselves start questioning.  Dropping full support takes a little longer and then it is like a slow leak in a balloon, not a pop.

I have noticed various MFM starting to question OdipO outright.  Since lefties generally read just left stuff, the slow leak has started.  Nevertheless, OdipO has firm support of the 29% that think tea partiers are terrorists.  My guess is 35% would ever be the absolute lowest, so he is already close.

56

Dynamic Equilibrium, Cascade Preferences, Tipping Points - Oh My!

57

If Barry's approval rating sinks fast enough, the rest of the Democrats will want to dump him for some new guy.  (See also the rumblings about a primary challenger or a back-room deal.)

Best case scenario?  Dem-controlled Senate impeaches him over Libya.

There's no way Slow Joe could be worse, and even talk of impeachment would harm Barry's legacy. 

(When I dream, I dream *big*.)

You're presuming facts not yet in evidence.  Like that the House, controlled by Republicans, can garner enough votes to actually impeach him.  The Donks may want to, but you'd have to convince a great deal of 'Phants in both houses that it wasn't a naked political attempt to remove him from office, for the benefit of the Donks.  And why would you vote to remove him?  He better for the 'Phants where he is.

58

38Best case scenario? Dem-controlled Senate impeaches him over Libya.

Not a chance in hell. Dems will never impeach a Dem, ever.

As for opposition to the war, there wasn't any by the public. They were opposed to "nation building" because one of Bush's campaign promises was no nation building.
---

No, you pretty much have to be sentenced to prison to be demoted from any post inside the Democratic Party. "Cash in the freezer" jefferson (I think that was his name) received a committee promotion AFTER being indicted.

59

At some point people really have to notice the elephant in the room, and that elephant is complete failure in every single respect of job performance.

The elephant in the room with explosive diarrhea.

 

 

 

60 The Debt Deal was Barry's Falujah.

61 At some point people really have to notice the elephant in the room, and that elephant is complete failure in every single respect of job performance. (Except, of course, for making the "Gutsy Call" to kill the man the United States has dedicated itself for ten years to killing.) Posted by Ace at 04:56 PM New Comments Thingy EXACTLY. it was SO incredibly gutsy of Obama to let the Secret Service drag him off the golf course - his golf T-shirt still on - and force him to watch the SEALS take out Obama on a monitor. I thought he looked rather sullen and resentful in the photos that were released later.

62 Quick question for the Morons - I distinctly recall Bush - sometime in 2003 - made a point of saying "election be damned, I'm going to do what I think is right in Iraq." Bush then proceeded to do just that. Meanwhile the Left fretted about Bush withdrawing troops to screw with the US elections (he didn't) - that he'd fire commanders (he didn't) - that he'd release the Strategic Petroleum Reserve onto baby ducks and otters to shore up his base (Bush did, but it was kept secret) meanwhile all the unfounded concerns the Left had about Bush are being realized by Obama. go figure.

63 Abu Grahib and Sadr City Siege both in 2004!

64 It's time for General Obama to launch a surge in the war on the economy.

65 Oh, I meant, "...take out Osama."

66 I think it is beginning to dawn on all but the seriously delusional progressive that obama is just not up to the task.

See!!!  Socialism would have worked if it had been done right.

67 64 It's time for General Obama to launch a surge in the war on the economy. Posted by: DelD at August 09, 2011 05:20 PM (oAZ1S) Isn't that what the EPA is up to??

68 We've got to keep him on mike, on camera, on TV. The more coverage the better. "Blah, blah, blah." Obama Fatigue.

69 Perhaps it's not really a "tipping point", so much as 40% has become the ceiling not the floor.

70 Everyone who would rather be fed, watered, transported, and entertained by the rest of us without having to work will vote for Obama in 2012.
Most anyone in a union will vote for Obama in 2012.
Anyone still feeling guilty or angry about American history will vote for Obama in 2012.

It's as simple as that.

He is guaranteed 40% of the votes from that alone. Because 35% of the voting aged public is worthless and want a free life.
The other 5% of voters are dead, paid off, or imaginary.

71 the question was "Does anybody know of video of Bush saying "I'm going to do what I think is right?" =

72 "Posted by: BumperStickerist"

The answer to your question is that Obama's core were either very stupid or insincere.

73 Ya know this is a fight for the heart and soul of America. The "Progressives" want to turn us into a socialist State, or an EU State , not that there is much difference. And from where I sit there seem to be enough brain washed, stupid, or committed people that he/they probably start with 40%. We "Patriots" probably also start with 40%. The fight is over that undecided 20%.

74 Because I hold grudges, like a dick, let me add: (Except, of course, for making the "Gutsy Call" to kill the man the United States has dedicated itself for ten years to killing.) Monday, Guy Benson was talking to Cabin Boy Ed on his show and quite literally, without sarcasm or irony, stated that Obama did in fact make a gutsy call about OBL and deserves praise for it. It was truly gutsy. So, these are our friends.

75 Juan Williams to Sean Hannity: "If you don't root for Obama's failed policies then you don't love America."

76 72 "Posted by: BumperStickerist"

The answer to your question is that Obama's core were either very stupid or insincere.

Posted by: Dustin at August 09, 2011 05:23 PM (519+h)

I'll give odds on stupid, 20:1

77 Oh, I meant, "...take out Osama."

RHETORIC!!!

Btw You're a TERRORIST!!!

78 I'm just watching more of the riots in Britain. Boy, are they suicidal. If they're not going to do anything, I hope entire cities fall.

79

I heard someone is trying to explain supply and demand to him...using hand puppets.

80 America suffered through Great Depression 1.0 while reelecting FDR several times. America is great but still able to be punished for our collective stupidity. Also, I think that for most people younger than the baby boom, we don't understand that FDR's Great Depression pretty much meant that for most of the 20th century America wasn't all that rich. We're spoiled because we lived during a brief 20 year refutation of FDR.

81  More like Obama's Stalingrad.  Or maybe Kursk.

Posted by: al-Cicero, Tea Party Jihadist at August 09, 2011 05:11 PM (QKKT0)

Wounded Knee.

82 and the cold, hard reality that Obama's Marxist policies do not work and will never work.

I sometimes don't think we think about this enough.

However wrong it is; however (yes, I'll say it evil it is.  However unworkable it is when viewed through any realistic world-view, Marxism is comforting.

It enables the cognitive dissonance with which most people live daily.  It is what the Christian writers (from Paul in the 1st cent., to people like CS Lewis, and even modern writers) called "the man of flesh and the man of spirit" or "duality" or whatever you want to call it.  No matter it's name, we all know it exists (if we admit it to ourselves): that desire to get "ours," no matter who it hurts- and the knowledge that such selfishness is wrong.

Most people (I believe) try to listen more to the latter voice than the former.  We try to be good people (even though we aren't).

So, along comes Marxism.  A philosophy which says: Yes! You can have everything that's "yours," and you no longer have to worry about being your brother's keeper- because the all beneficent government will keep him for you.  You don't have to worry about your greed- we'll help you keep it in line, and you don't have to sacrifice what is yours for the good of others.  Each man and woman will contribute, as they are able, to the all powerful, all beneficent government, and that government will return to each man and woman, according to their needs.

That's a sweet siren's call, and many sailors have been dashed to death on frothy rocks of reality that surround the island on which those sirens live.

83 I think y'all should use a golf metaphor, but I am unable to suggest one. Real men despise golf and spit at golfers

84 The elephant in the room, to borrow Ace's phrase, is the bursting of the academic liberal dream. Obama is the incarnation of that dream. His failure doesn't matter as much to Libs as the dream's failure. In a metaphoric sense, Libs must now, like George did to Lennie in "Of Mice and Men," shoot Obama in order to preserve their dream. They are now doing that by calling for Obama to be primaried or even for him to pull an LBJ.

85 @83 That's just silly.

86 And think about it, no worker in the public sector is suffering because of Obama's policies. Out here in the real world, we've experienced pay get cut in half or disappear.

87 I think you're thinking of the "tipping point".

I want to see a Banzai Bunny attack, or, in Obama's case, I'm thinking he will be attacked by a goose on the golf course.  He will either run away like a scared little girl or. less likely, clobber the goose with a seven iron.  Either way, he will be a national joke.

88 79

I heard someone is trying to explain supply and demand to him...using hand puppets.

Posted by: Rev Dr E Buzz at August 09, 2011 05:26 PM (tcSZb)

It makes you wonder how he managed to father 2 girls.  Those poor girls.  Jesus.

89 He will be primaried.

Posted by: Johnny at August 09, 2011 05:14 PM (iT/Iy)

No.  But he may not be the nominee.  Keep in mind that they can replace him at the convention without any primary taking place.  But there are a couple of problems with this:

(1) If he isn't 100% on board with stepping down, the black vote craters and the Democratic party will be devastated all the way down the ballot.

(2) Even so, Obama is the pillar holding up the Democrat party right now.  They live to support him. If he goes, they are rudderless.

(3) Nobody else can win the general election.  Hillary and Biden are the only ones with enough stature to be a credible candidate on the day of the convention.  Their whole bench is amazingly shallow (though it was in 2008, too) so much so that Andrew Cuomo is the only potential for 2016 that I can see.  So any nominee would be a placeholder to keep the downballot races from being blown away.

I do think there are a lot of Democrats who have a more short-term feeling of DOOM right about now.

90 They are now doing that by calling for Obama to be primaried or even for him to pull an LBJ. Posted by: MaxMBJ at August 09, 2011 05:29 PM (deaac) He'll never pull an LBJ. LBJ was old and tired and not nearly as a committed ideologue. LBJ was, above all, a politician.

91 (2) Even so, Obama is the pillar holding up the Democrat party right now. They live to support him. If he goes, they are rudderless. Yes cubed.

92 LBJ was old and tired and not nearly as a committed ideologue. LBJ was, above all, a politician.


LBJ was pond scum. I hope LBJ is in the rack next to Ted Kennedy and every GI who died in 'Nam gets to take field trips to Hell on Sunday to beat his worthless ass.

93 (2) Even so, Obama is the pillar holding up the Democrat party right now. They live to support him. If he goes, they are rudderless. To amplify, the Demotard project is so monarchical, so singly ruled, they haven't even a first mate, no Starbuck or Stubb. The captain isn't guiding their vessel and there are no close officers, so it's no wonder the libtards are howling for leadership.

94 "It makes you wonder how he managed to father 2 girls." Different training session w/ anatomically correct hand puppets?

95 complete failure in every single respect of job performance. Except, of course, for making the "Gutsy Call" to kill the man the United States has dedicated itself for ten years to killing.

Come on, ace.  Be fair.  You can't just overlook his other great accomplishment as if it didn't happen:

Obama also produced ID.

96 90 They are now doing that by calling for Obama to be primaried or even for him to pull an LBJ. Posted by: MaxMBJ at August 09, 2011 05:29 PM (deaac) He'll never pull an LBJ. LBJ was old and tired and not nearly as a committed ideologue. LBJ was, above all, a politician. True ... Unless the boys running the show step in and tell him, Uh, Mr. President ... You know that bus we've been tossing people under ...

97

 He will either run away like a scared little girl or. less likely, clobber the goose with a seven iron.

You ever seen a pissed of gander? Oblowme will run like a little bitch (no offense to bitches everywhere)

98 When Republicans lose faith in a leader, they need a new candidate.

When Democrats lose faith in a leader, they need a new god.

So they tend to avoid losing faith in their leaders.

99

@83 I think y'all should use a golf metaphor, but I am unable to suggest one

Here. Obama's new golf rules:

his is only  a preview as the complete rule book  (expect 2000 pages)
is being rewritten as we speak.

Here are a few of  the changes.

Golfers with  handicaps:
- below 10 will have their green fees increased by 35%.
-  between 11 and 18 will see no increase in green fees.
- above 18 will get a  $20 check each time they play.

The term "gimmie"  will be changed to "entitlement" and will be used as follows:
- handicaps  below 10, no entitlements.
- handicaps from 11 to 17, entitlements for  putter length putts.
- handicaps above 18, if your ball is on green, no  need to putt, just
pick it up.  These entitlements are intended to bring about fairness and, most
importantly, equality in scoring.

In addition, a  Player will be limited to a maximum of one birdie or
six pars in any given  18-hole round.

Any excess must be  given to those fellow players who have not yet
scored a birdie or par. Only after all  players have received a birdie or par from the player
actually making the  birdie or par,

can that player  begin to count his pars and birdies again. The current USGA  handicap system will be used for the above purposes, but the term "net  score" will be available only for scoring those players with handicaps of 18  and above.

This is  intended to "re-distribute" the success of winning by making
sure that in  every competition, the above 18  handicap players will post only "net score" against
every other player's  "gross score".

These new Rules  are intended to CHANGE the game of golf.

Golf must be about  Fairness.

It should have  nothing to do with ability, hard work, practice, and
responsibility.

This is the "Right  thing to do.

100 Nota bene, in the clusterfuck that is the UK: BBC - 2219 hours: Chuka Umunna, Labour MP for Streatham, which includes Brixton, says he wants to see Blackberry's messenger service "temporarily disabled" between 1800 BST and 0600 BST to stop those organising disorder. Well, well. It's a hard left member of government that wants to stifle your ability to communicate... in the name of stability, of course.

101

Carter won 40%

Dukakis won 45%

Mondale won 38ish%

Anyone predicting obama will lose more then 63% of the vote is dreaming.

I don't see him winning either the popular or electoral vote at this point, and a current floor of about 40%.

Ace, he drops BELOW that in gallup or rasmussen then I would say the last shoe dropped and we can start focusing on flipping house seats and senate seats more.

102 A camel can easily carry a large bundle of straw. But if you keep piling more and more straw on that camel eventually there is that one straw that breaks the camel's back.

Obama has several camels being overloaded. The leftist/progressives aren't happy, the moderates and independents aren't happy, the conservative/libertarians aren't happy.

The camel Michelle is riding is especially unhappy.

103 More like Obama's Stalingrad.  Or maybe Kursk.

I was thinking more like Custer's Last Stand or the Charge of the Light Brigade.  IOW, he is one with people who simply ignore the reality all around them, and do stupid, ultimately fatal things.  Barry's world view is so rigid that he simply can't imagine approaching things another way.  Clinton, on the other hand, had the wit to tack right, even if he didn't believe in any of it.

One of the best definitions of intelligence is the ability to adapt to new situations.  QED on the question of Barry's intelligence.

104 That's a sweet siren's call, and many sailors have been dashed to death on frothy rocks of reality that surround the island on which those sirens live.

To paraphrase Thoreau, many men live lives of quiet desperation and pray for socialism.

105 (1) If he isn't 100% on board with stepping down, the black vote craters and the Democratic party will be devastated all the way down the ballot.


And do what? Stay home? Not likely. Vote Republican more unlikely.


Don't make me break out my big laugh.

106 I don't see him winning either the popular or electoral vote at this point, and a current floor of about 40%. please please please I want to believe, but there is over a year of unknown events and known MFM lies to overcome.

107 Jimmy McMillan (rent's too high) will sure feel like an ass if the dems hold a primary, considering he's running on the republican ticket to avoid the devastating blow his candidacy as a democrat will have on the Presidunce Borack.

108

Well, if he wins re-election, he can use his first four years as sort of a test run, and if he needed to he, he could blame himself for the past administration's mistakes.

Or he could pretend it never happened...and just use the next four years to run for President again.

getting all that applause must have been very nice for him, and I'm glad millions of imbeciles provided it.

109 I find it pretty hilarious that "youths" who are so oppressed and deprived that they feel the need to loot and destroy are organizing the riots via Blackberry.

110 @82  Good thoughts.

111 I want to believe, but there is over a year of unknown events and known MFM lies to overcome.

Posted by: George Orwell at August 09, 2011 05:38 PM (AZGON)

We were saying that in 2009 about 2010.

In early January about Massachusetts.

Hell, even about Prosser.

The tide has turned.

Wisconsin, I propose, could be the ignored canary in the coalmine.

If SOMEHOW the Republicans all get reelected (doubtful about 1 of them)

and they gain 1 next week, it means the end to union brass knuckles in the land that birthed much of this nonsense, and that will spread. Rapidly.

If we only lose 1 or net no movement either way, the unions are debilitated, the WalkerRecall gets quietly called off, and we can put Wisconsin in the light red column for 2012.

If it gets worse from there, the Dems can speculate all they want about it.

 

But watch Wisconsin tonight, and, pending good results, watch next week.

If WI has turned red, its over for O.

112 Oh, the whiny whining from the victims of rioting in London is hilarious. One woman owning a salon, gutted, who likely voted all her life for Labour, whines about no police protection. Sorry, but salon owners in trendy neighborhoods are not prone to be big on "law and order." Just hair gel and "cool looks."

113 All it will take to re-elect that miserable buffoon is for one high-level Republican to stick his dick someplace unauthorized. Either 20 years ago or next May. All it will take is for some Republican to do something stupid sexually.

 That's all it will take to reelect Obama.

Every single Republican needs to be on notice and on saltpeter until after the election.

114 CAC, you are unfairly converting me to an optimist. You know I hate that.

115 The Bradley effect doesn't play in to this now that Barkey has fallen so far. 

116 My suggestion for metaphor:

Obamacare was Borodino.
The downgrade was Moscow burning.
And now winter's here, and France is far, far away.

He's done, but we've still got Leipzig and Waterloo to fight.

117 A kind of Bradley Effect will remain until election day.

No hipster Hopenchanger wants to be the first to tell it's friends that they have lost the Obama love, or the Gorebal worming religion.

They will lie to each other now.

118 CAC, you are unfairly converting me to an optimist. You know I hate that.

Posted by: George Orwell at August 09, 2011 05:44 PM (AZGON)

There are a multitude of reasons to be cautiously optimistic.

119 114, maybe in a normal year, but by next November, people who haven't worked in months are not gonna care about who is putting their junk where. The game has changed. IMO, anyway.

120

Look, this isn't rocket science. 

Around 45% of the body politic automatically will vote for the Democrat candidate, regardless of facts, circumstances, reality, qualifications, experience, performance, etc.  Makes no difference how bad the economy is.  Blacks, college students, public union workers, malcontents, senile Democrats, soap opera women, felons, freaks and wealthy liberals on the coasts.  They're guaranteed votes for Obama, to the extent they vote at all. 

Conversely, around 40% of the body politic are rational and informed adults who work for a living and therefore will vote for the Republican candidate, either in support of that candidate or against the disaster that is the Obama presidency. 

There's a separate bloc of conservatives out there, but in many respects they literally don't count.  These people stay home and don't vote in the general election, although they might very well participate in the primary.

That leaves around 15% in play.  These folks are apolitical.  They don't pay attention to cable news.  They don't listen to talk radio.  They don't peruse blogs.  They've barely heard of the "Tea Party."  They don't respond to public opinion polls.  They might glance through a newspaper every so often.  Occasionally they'll watch their local TV news broadcast.  On the one hand they're not well informed, but they're not completely uninformed.  They're not necessarily well educated, but they're not uneducated.  They're not necessarily gainfully employed, but they're not on the welfare line.  They're not partisans.  They have no vested interest in Obama, but by the same token they need a reason to vote for his opponent separate and apart from Obama's many failings.

With U-6 unemployment over 15%, and presuming a viable GOP nominee, a substantial majority of this latter, independent bloc will vote against Obama.  That means Obama loses his reelection bid, unless conservatives stay home in huge numbers.  If on the other hand the job market improves substantially next year (very unlikely, but not impossible), or if the GOP nominee is not viable from the standpoint of a non-partisan moderate, then Obama will win reelection.  It's that simple. 

121 9 I think it is beginning to dawn on all but the seriously delusional progressive that obama is just not up to the task. Now our job, is to drive that point home. Posted by: nevergiveup at August 09, 2011 05:03 PM (i6RpT) O.K.! He knows nothing about anything. Now what? We've known this all along; it is one unspeakable truism. In my opinion, as long as we have a Kruathammer, who disses the guy in all regards, but rewards him with intelligence, wit, savvy, etc., we have a kettle of spit.

122 Actually the so-called "mushy middle" is very small. I figure it is less than 5%. Everyone who votes either votes for one Party or the other.

The key to winning the election isn't trying to win that 5% of clueless shittards. It is energizing your base and getting them down to the polls to do the voting.

123 I am an American fighting in the forces which guard my country and our way of life. I am prepared to give my life in their defense.

I will never surrender of my own free will. If in command, I will never surrender the members of my command while they still have the means to resist.

If I am captured I will continue to resist by all means available. I will make every effort to escape and aid others to escape. I will accept neither parole nor special favors from the enemy.

If I become a prisoner of war, I will keep faith with my fellow prisoners. I will give no information or take part in any action which might be harmful to my comrades. If I am senior, I will take command. If not, I will obey the lawful orders of those appointed over me and will back them up in every way.

When questioned, should I become a prisoner of war, I am required to give name, rank, service number, and date of birth. I will evade answering further questions to the utmost of my ability. I will make no oral or written statements disloyal to my country and its allies or harmful to their cause.

I will never forget that I am an American, fighting for freedom, responsible for my actions, and dedicated to the principles which made my country free. I will trust in my God and in the United States of America.

Just thought I'd be completely OT and post a reminder.

124 I will never forget that I am an American, fighting for freedom, responsible for my actions, and dedicated to the principles which made my country free. I will trust in my God and in the United States of America. That is so chauvinistic, intolerant, and exclusive! Like you belong to the Army of Jenghiz Khan or something!!

125 It's that simple. Posted by: Tsar Nicholas II at August 09, 2011 06:02 PM (f8XyF) What the hell do you know? You've been dead for 90 years!

126 Posted by: tangonine, Tea Party Terrorist at August 09, 2011 06:24 PM (x3YFz)

If I sent you my physical address, could you write that, and sign it?  I'd like to frame it on my wall.

127

What does The One command, my lord?

Unleash RaHoWa?  Unleash rioters?

Done and done.

To war!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

128 Lots of Great commentary on this thread!

Ace, I think '43 started losing support when it started becoming clear that we were slipping into a "winning the peace" moment in Iraq, instead of fight a war to win model.  Too clever by half and it took another 2 years for the surge  to produce results.  In hindsight it is easy criticism.  In real-time, I think they did the best they could with the opposition press and left pushing them and trying hard to be humanitarian to the point of costing a lot of treasure to be nearly wasted. ( we'll see what happens ).

I use my Mom as a model of a democrat voter.  I remember Carter, I was a senior in HS in 81.. my Mom didn't like Reagan and to this day thinks Carter was a good guy that was unfairly trashed.  There you go. 30 + years later and all the evidence to show what a major asshat Carter was... and his core support at the time still think he was great, well-meaning, smart and cheated in the end by unfair foreign events and a showy former actor who was incompetent, who rah-rah'd the flag and patriotism in a simpleton fashion that got him elected.  It's sad.  Same will happen for O. 

129 The one flaw in this analysis is that Obama's supporters live in a bubble. They never hear anyone criticizing him, mocking him, or doing anything but fawning over him and scolding those awful, racist Teabaggers. There can be no tipping point because as far as they're concerned everything is hunky-dory, the country is united behind Obama, and we've always been at war with Eastasia.

130

Bush wasn't a goner until Katrina.  That was the week the public just decided he was a lousy and incompetent President who couldn't run a domestic crisis or a war.  It's also when the late-night comics and the pundits decided it was OK to start going after him on Iraq. 

This week is Obama's Katrina.  The public has decided Obama is (a) not engaged, (b) not competent, and (c) doesn't really give a shit about either (a) or (b). 

I think the only people left who support him are people who never had a job or never lost a job and aren't worried about losing the one they have now.  Everyone else has figured out that he is clueless about the economy. 

131 Bush declined in the polls for two reasons. (1) he alienated the base and (2) constant attacks by the Dems and the press that went unanswered.

132

@19: "Obama is WINNING. Market capitalists are losing. Lenin (and Alinsky) would be very proud of their ideological heir. Those still speaking against their inner voice that this illegal alien is anything but a revolutionary communist doing exactly as his sponsors (like the people who got him his Connecticut social security number) would have him do, are whistling past the graveyard."

Sort of accurate, but it is very dependent on what fight you are looking at.  If it is the fight to be a successful President, he's losing badly.  If it is the fight to destroy America/The West, he's winning (but how could he not, he has both parties, the media, the elites, a big percent of the population, and most of the rest of the world as allies). 

133

Here's a demographic people should remember:

The peak of the Baby Boom was in 1957.  People born in that year will be 55 next year, and in 2016 will be 59 - that is the magic year in which people with IRAs and 401(k)s have to start withdrawing the funds.  These people are now staring at smoking holes where their retirement savings used to be.  None of them believe they will be restored fully, much less have any significant growth, by the time they are 59.  

These people are pissed.  And they vote.

134

@28: "We don't joke about tipping points here on Guam."

Posted by: Assistant Administrator to the Head Guamian at August 09, 2011 05:10 PM (QKKT0)

-----------------------

HA! I know you're a fake.  The proper term is Guambat.  I know, I watch Animal Planet!

 

As an aside - how bad does it have to fuck with your head to be black and have a name composed of two of the Confederacy's biggest heroes?  Might explain a few things......

135 Its Pleasure to understand your blog.The above articles is pretty extraordinary, and I really enjoyed reading your blog and points that you expressed. I really like to appear back over a typical basis,post a lot more within the topic.Thanks for sharingÂ…keep writing!!!

136

@112: "Oh, the whiny whining from the victims of rioting in London is hilarious. One woman owning a salon, gutted, who likely voted all her life for Labour, whines about no police protection.

Sorry, but salon owners in trendy neighborhoods are not prone to be big on "law and order." Just hair gel and "cool looks.""

No worries.  We just killed somebody wearing a hooded sweatshirt.  Looked like he maybe could have been the rioter who torched her shop.  He kept yelling that he was just an innocent jogger, and yeah, he was not British, was here in Arizona, and it took us 500 rounds to bring him down (and two hours for him to die), but we are squashing that shit!

137 When the public turned against the war I think the media's daily pounding of casualties, Bush bashing and breathless reporting of Bush's poll numbers was a factor.

138 I think you're on to something, since coincidentally, he cancelled a major (green jobs, blah, blah, blah) speech today, which the markets cheered, and his Propaganda Minister cancelled the daily briefing.

139

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