June 26, 2011
— Gabriel Malor Tomorrow morning I'll put up the GOP contender straw poll again, just to see where you guys have moved over the past month. For now, let's take a look at the results of the first poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers.
Romney, the national front-runner and a familiar face in Iowa after his 2008 presidential run, attracts support from 23 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers. Bachmann, who will officially kick off her campaign in Iowa on Monday, nearly matches him, with 22 percent.[...]
Former GodfatherÂ’s CEO Herman Cain, who has never held public office but has found a following among tea party supporters, comes in third, with 10 percent.
I think it's pretty amazing that Romney, who wrote off Iowa early, still manages to come out on top. I guess the ethanol bribe works. Indeed, Romney isn't even running ads in Iowa yet.
Now compare that to Pawlenty, who made a "politically gutsy" call to end ethanol subsidies. Pawlenty so far has spent 26 days campaigning in Iowa, was the first candidate to start airing TV ads in the state, and hired major state players to lead his Iowa team. He managed to scrape together 6 percent in this poll.
Pawlenty's 6 percent is notionally behind the walking dead campaigns of Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, who are both at 7 percent, although it's well inside the poll's 5 percent margin of error. Rick Santorum (4 percent) and Jon Huntsman (2 percent) round out the poll.
The other thing to note is that this is really too early to be useful for more than anything except posturing. At this point in 2008, Certain Fuckin' Doomabee, who would go on to win the Iowa Caucuses, only polled at 4 percent compared to Romney's 30 percent. Keep in mind the poll's large margin of error and its finding that 69 percent of respondents say they're open to changing their minds.
For what it's worth, I don't think Santorum or Huntsman are going to win a Huckabee-style upset this time. Bachmann, in particular, looks exceptionally strong. She definitely benefited from a week of coverage as the undisputed winner of the first candidate debate and I bet she'll see another bounce because of this poll. When it wasn't pimping out Huntsman last week, the MBM talked up a battle between Romney and Pawlenty. Ignored but not unnoticed, Bachmann surged.
Note, they didn't poll for Rick Perry or Sarah Palin in the candidate question. Perry just got in it officially at the end of last week. Everyone is still waiting to see what Palin does, but my money says she's not running and so can safely be left out of these polls. They did, however, ask about Perry and Palin's favorables. Bachmann has the highest net favorability: plus-53 points. Perry had the next-highest at plus-35 points. Palin only has a plus-21 spread.
Posted by: Gabriel Malor at
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Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 10:36 AM (UzBwz)
Posted by: Ed Anger at June 26, 2011 10:39 AM (7+pP9)
Posted by: Gay Trivia at June 26, 2011 10:39 AM (cOkIN)
Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 10:41 AM (UzBwz)
I'm all for Rick Perry's Hair stepping in to take away pretty much all the supporters she has.
Posted by: The Man Between The Cans at June 26, 2011 10:42 AM (TCyyS)
Posted by: alexthechick at June 26, 2011 10:43 AM (sf+iw)
Posted by: Greg (I'm On Your Side Guys, I Swear) at June 26, 2011 10:44 AM (UzBwz)
Posted by: VillageIdiot at June 26, 2011 10:46 AM (utXSy)
Posted by: CoolCzech at June 26, 2011 10:46 AM (kUaEF)
You've been listening to the Mayans again?
Posted by: The Man Between The Cans at June 26, 2011 10:46 AM (TCyyS)
Posted by: texas101 at June 26, 2011 10:46 AM (qzwtJ)
Posted by: Scarlett at June 26, 2011 10:47 AM (/fgyZ)
Posted by: CoolCzech at June 26, 2011 02:46 PM (kUaEF)
History says he is the nom, but you never know. there is precedent of 2 straight primary upsets. McGovern in 72 and Carter in 76 came from behind to win the party's nomination. the GOP has never had back to back primary upsets (only 2 were Goldwater in 64 and Mac in 0
.
I'm still hoping he's not the nom but i'm prepared to vote Romney over Obama.
Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 10:48 AM (UzBwz)
Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 10:50 AM (UzBwz)
Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 10:52 AM (UzBwz)
Posted by: chemjeff at June 26, 2011 10:53 AM (WNGhA)
We need to create this sentiment among more people.
If some of these candidates started really hitting Obama on his record, that would be helpful. "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" that sort of thing.
Any of these folks could beat Obama if some of them were willing to deliver him the rhetorical beating that capitalist society so desperately owes him.
Posted by: lauraw at June 26, 2011 10:53 AM (DbybK)
I'm betting on a close run between Bachmann and Romney even though Romney has not spent much time in the State. Why? Because Iowa is a caucus and not an actual primary vote. Caucus depends more on the candidate's organization.
I think Romney will take NH going away because they love them some country club Republicans there.
Then comes SC. SC is up in the air whether of not they will even be able to hold a primary because the money to finance the primary was not included in the budget. They are now talking caucus which I think is stupid.
Posted by: Vic at June 26, 2011 10:54 AM (M9Ie6)
Posted by: chemjeff at June 26, 2011 02:53 PM (WNGhA)
you fucking RINO! people like YOU are destroying our country! you just want to be part of the boys club!/sarc
Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 10:54 AM (UzBwz)
In the end, there will be Only Romney.
It's his turn.
Posted by: CoolCzech at June 26, 2011 02:46 PM (kUaEF)
yeah that's kinda what I'm afraid of
I'm a Pawlenty guy myself, right now, only because he seems to be one of the few people who is willing to tell people "no", and so I don't know how I can reconcile the two beliefs of "we're broke" and Romney's "oh yeah let's keep the ethanol subsidies flowing"
Posted by: chemjeff at June 26, 2011 10:56 AM (WNGhA)
I would vote for a huge, sentient, cancerous tumor over Obama.
I've gotten to the point i'd voter Crist over Obama, that's how much i've come to despise this a-hole
Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 11:00 AM (UzBwz)
When I saw the headline I thought this post was going to be about the end of the world.
...Oh wait, it is.
Posted by: gebrauchshund at June 26, 2011 11:00 AM (iYwUw)
Posted by: chemjeff at June 26, 2011 11:05 AM (WNGhA)
Posted by: chemjeff at June 26, 2011 03:05 PM (WNGhA)
and there was that hiding in the bushes episode...
Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 11:06 AM (UzBwz)
Posted by: The Christine O'Donnell Flake-o-Meter at June 26, 2011 11:10 AM (cOkIN)
Posted by: The Christine O'Donnell Flake-o-Meter at June 26, 2011 03:10 PM (cOkIN)
yeah COD had one too but Bachmann had a similar episode, but I like Bachmann over COD any day
Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 11:12 AM (UzBwz)
Point score for evals - positive = +1, neutral = 0, negative = -1
Bachmann +6
Ron Paul +6 (with baggage)
Santorum +5
Cain +4 (based on platform only)
Perry +3
T-Paw +2 (would be much lower w/o a lot of flip-flops)
Romney -2
Newt -2
Huntsman -3
Posted by: Vic at June 26, 2011 11:13 AM (M9Ie6)
Posted by: Vic at June 26, 2011 03:13 PM (M9Ie6)
oh yes we must always keep in mind the Vic-O'Meter
Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 11:15 AM (UzBwz)
If you speak on the campaign trail 10 hours a day 6 days a week you will misspeak a few times.
Posted by: Vic at June 26, 2011 11:16 AM (M9Ie6)
Well I don't agree with calling essentially half of Congress to be traitors. And I agree with her "armed and dangerous" comment, actually. The point is, though, that they are stupid things to say politically. In my mind she's kinda like our version of Joe Biden, except not senile.
Posted by: chemjeff at June 26, 2011 11:17 AM (WNGhA)
I do, but yes, it isn't the kind of thing you say if you're serious about getting elected President.
Oh that's right, we're not supposed to pay attention to whether these people can actually get elected....
Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at June 26, 2011 11:22 AM (cOkIN)
What'd I miss here? I thought he wasn't going to officially announce whether he was or not until early August.
Posted by: Lady in Black at June 26, 2011 11:23 AM (kOtPb)
Oh that's right, we're not supposed to pay attention to whether these people can actually get elected....
of course not undead, we should only focus on the Vic-O-Meter, and if someone we don't like is the nom-then 4 more years of Obama/sarc
Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 11:23 AM (UzBwz)
What a bunch of eeyores. Did you guys miss the election last year? Is Obamacare dead yet? How's that unemployment number, the value of your house, your retirement porfolio? Sent a kid to an expensive college only to have him living with you after graduation, or maybe you ARE one of those educated jobless? Obama has lost the youth vote, the senior vote, the independent vote, the novelty vote, the vote that proves your not a racist vote, etc.
Posted by: Carmelita at June 26, 2011 11:26 AM (7CEIi)
Posted by: Carmelita at June 26, 2011 03:26 PM (7CEIi)
Obama has lost the youth vote? what world do you live in, because i'd sure love to live in it!
Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 11:27 AM (UzBwz)
Posted by: progressoverpeace at June 26, 2011 03:37 PM (G/MYk)
perhaps you can do yourself a favor and get a little bit of a sense of humor instead of being so uptight over everything
Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 11:38 AM (UzBwz)
Posted by: No Whining at June 26, 2011 11:42 AM (c/ors)
Posted by: Y-not at June 26, 2011 11:42 AM (TFxd0)
Posted by: No Whining at June 26, 2011 03:42 PM (c/ors)
is your handle an oxymoron?
Posted by: Y-not at June 26, 2011 03:42 PM (TFxd0)
I hope so, he looks like someone who can unite the Bachmann/Palin and Romney/Pawlenty base
Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 11:44 AM (UzBwz)
Posted by: alexthechick
Sigh, no one see's the obvious...
Islam-o-nuke, no idea where but they do seem to hate NY city the most.
Personally, I have no idea who's going to take it this time but you can bet the farm its not going to be a RINO or a squish.
Posted by: Gmac at June 26, 2011 11:56 AM (sRX50)
Posted by: Y-not at June 26, 2011 03:42 PM (TFxd0)
All true, and here's the other one: He doesn't like to lose. He's a ruthless political animal.
Posted by: AmishDude at June 26, 2011 11:58 AM (73tyQ)
Yeah, why can't they hate Detroit? I mean, they have the easiest access to it.
Posted by: Urban planners at June 26, 2011 11:59 AM (73tyQ)
Of the ones we think are running, he's the only one I'd feel enthusiastic about working for. He's conservative enough for me, but more importantly, he's accomplished some real shit under difficult circumstances and he would not fold like a cheap suit against Obama (as McCain did).
I like certain aspects of some of the others, but I also have some qualms about them that would prevent me from being able to feel completely enthusiastic about their candidacies.
The only other one in the horizon - but who is not running - is Paul Ryan. I respect him and would feel honored to work for him.
Posted by: Y-not at June 26, 2011 12:03 PM (TFxd0)
The GOP and LSM put Romney and some lame-oid we've never heard of on the ticket. Barry wins 62% of the vote, however voter turnout is 50% of the last election as all the conservatives stay home.
America fades into the dust. I cry.
Posted by: chuck in st paul at June 26, 2011 12:50 PM (EhYdw)
"Bachmann has the highest net favorability: plus-53 points."
they more they see of Bachmann the more people are going to like her, she will win Iowa. If the Party gets behind her at that point she's the next President.
problem: the McCain/Graham wing of the Party will fight her every step of the way because she isn't progressive-lite as they are.
Posted by: Shoey at June 26, 2011 12:52 PM (m6OUa)
Posted by: IllegalslovePerry at June 26, 2011 02:03 PM (caxaB)
Posted by: aerofanatic at June 26, 2011 02:49 PM (q1Tbv)
I love rick Santorum. He's a straight shooter not unlike Herman Cain and very good with foreign policy. Just wish the rest of the country would see what I see. Still hoping Rudy will take a shot. Don't think Perry getting into the race will affect Bachman. It might affect Romney though as he isn't an Iowan by birth. I think Huntsman is the MSM's pick which makes me want to run away from him as fast as I can. When Huntsman does something, anything on his own, not given to him becasue of his family name, power and influence and of course megabucks then maybe regular Americans might take him seriously. People think his religion is his hindrance. It's not, he has privilege syndrome bad.
Posted by: curious at June 26, 2011 03:31 PM (k1rwm)
Posted by: Schindler's golden nazi pin at June 26, 2011 03:53 PM (rSiVQ)
oh btw, what's Dave-in-Texas' opinion on Perry? I've completely missed it. (Unlike Breitbart, I don't usually read the comments. Come to think of it I almost never comment on them period.)
Posted by: Schindler's golden nazi pin at June 26, 2011 04:06 PM (rSiVQ)
Posted by: soccer cleats at June 26, 2011 09:56 PM (ESwwK)
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Posted by: Dave in Fla at June 26, 2011 10:35 AM (cSkZ5)