June 26, 2011

How About Some 2012 Speculation?
— Gabriel Malor

Tomorrow morning I'll put up the GOP contender straw poll again, just to see where you guys have moved over the past month. For now, let's take a look at the results of the first poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers.

Romney, the national front-runner and a familiar face in Iowa after his 2008 presidential run, attracts support from 23 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers. Bachmann, who will officially kick off her campaign in Iowa on Monday, nearly matches him, with 22 percent.

[...]

Former GodfatherÂ’s CEO Herman Cain, who has never held public office but has found a following among tea party supporters, comes in third, with 10 percent.

I think it's pretty amazing that Romney, who wrote off Iowa early, still manages to come out on top. I guess the ethanol bribe works. Indeed, Romney isn't even running ads in Iowa yet.

Now compare that to Pawlenty, who made a "politically gutsy" call to end ethanol subsidies. Pawlenty so far has spent 26 days campaigning in Iowa, was the first candidate to start airing TV ads in the state, and hired major state players to lead his Iowa team. He managed to scrape together 6 percent in this poll.

Pawlenty's 6 percent is notionally behind the walking dead campaigns of Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, who are both at 7 percent, although it's well inside the poll's 5 percent margin of error. Rick Santorum (4 percent) and Jon Huntsman (2 percent) round out the poll.

The other thing to note is that this is really too early to be useful for more than anything except posturing. At this point in 2008, Certain Fuckin' Doomabee, who would go on to win the Iowa Caucuses, only polled at 4 percent compared to Romney's 30 percent. Keep in mind the poll's large margin of error and its finding that 69 percent of respondents say they're open to changing their minds.

For what it's worth, I don't think Santorum or Huntsman are going to win a Huckabee-style upset this time. Bachmann, in particular, looks exceptionally strong. She definitely benefited from a week of coverage as the undisputed winner of the first candidate debate and I bet she'll see another bounce because of this poll. When it wasn't pimping out Huntsman last week, the MBM talked up a battle between Romney and Pawlenty. Ignored but not unnoticed, Bachmann surged.

Note, they didn't poll for Rick Perry or Sarah Palin in the candidate question. Perry just got in it officially at the end of last week. Everyone is still waiting to see what Palin does, but my money says she's not running and so can safely be left out of these polls. They did, however, ask about Perry and Palin's favorables. Bachmann has the highest net favorability: plus-53 points. Perry had the next-highest at plus-35 points. Palin only has a plus-21 spread.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 10:35 AM | Comments (63)
Post contains 486 words, total size 3 kb.

1 First?

Posted by: Dave in Fla at June 26, 2011 10:35 AM (cSkZ5)

2 Wow, there is a first, a first.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at June 26, 2011 10:35 AM (cSkZ5)

3 Bachmann needs to take advantage of her current momentum and build on it, Perry looks like he's in and he's gonna make a dent in her support.

Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 10:36 AM (UzBwz)

4 Maybe four more years of Obama will finally teach the GOP not to nominate assholes like Romney and McCain.

Posted by: Ed Anger at June 26, 2011 10:39 AM (7+pP9)

5 Boy, there sure are a lot of RINOs out there.

Posted by: Gay Trivia at June 26, 2011 10:39 AM (cOkIN)

6

Posted by: Ed Anger at June 26, 2011 02:39 PM (7+pP9)

*facepalm*

Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 10:40 AM (UzBwz)

7 maybe someone whould sock Greg because this thread is DOA

Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 10:41 AM (UzBwz)

8 Eeeeeyeeeeessssss????

Posted by: Greg! at June 26, 2011 10:42 AM (cOkIN)

9 Bachmann is like 4 feet high.  That alone should disqualify her from running.

I'm all for Rick Perry's Hair stepping in to take away pretty much all the supporters she has.

Posted by: The Man Between The Cans at June 26, 2011 10:42 AM (TCyyS)

10 2012 speculation?  Right now I'm leaning towards Yellowstone blowing up.  My second guess is asteroid strike. 


Posted by: alexthechick at June 26, 2011 10:43 AM (sf+iw)

11 look guys it's ob. the field is weak and the GOP will nominate a bore like Romney or a nut like Bachmann or Perry. looks like we didn't need Palin to fuck it up after all. Obama will win a close re-election, get used to it. we should focus on keeping the House and we'll come up short of the senate again. we're set for another Democrat wave year thanks to the epic fail that was the Ryan plan. hey, don't blame me. I'm on your side, really I am. I swear guys. I root for the GOP and the tea party. I'm just a realist.

Posted by: Greg (I'm On Your Side Guys, I Swear) at June 26, 2011 10:44 AM (UzBwz)

12

Generic Republican/Rubio 12'

come on baby!

Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 10:45 AM (UzBwz)

13 I like Bachmann, and if she runs I'd consider Palin also. I kind of wonder how genuine Perry's principles are, maybe that's not a fair to say.

Posted by: VillageIdiot at June 26, 2011 10:46 AM (utXSy)

14 Meh, In the end, there will be Only Romney. It's his turn.

Posted by: CoolCzech at June 26, 2011 10:46 AM (kUaEF)

15 2012 speculation?  Right now I'm leaning towards Yellowstone blowing up.  My second guess is asteroid strike. 

You've been listening to the Mayans again?

Posted by: The Man Between The Cans at June 26, 2011 10:46 AM (TCyyS)

16 I'm still hoping for Palin but will happily support Bachmann.

Posted by: texas101 at June 26, 2011 10:46 AM (qzwtJ)

17 People like their free money from the government, it seems.

Posted by: Scarlett at June 26, 2011 10:47 AM (/fgyZ)

18 You've been listening to the Mayans again?

But of course! 

Posted by: alexthechick at June 26, 2011 10:47 AM (sf+iw)

19

Posted by: CoolCzech at June 26, 2011 02:46 PM (kUaEF)

History says he is the nom, but you never know. there is precedent of 2 straight primary upsets. McGovern in 72 and Carter in 76 came from behind to win the party's nomination. the GOP has never had back to back primary upsets (only 2 were Goldwater in 64 and Mac in 0 .

I'm still hoping he's not the nom but i'm prepared to vote Romney over Obama.

Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 10:48 AM (UzBwz)

20 hope for my fellow anti-Romney people is that the GOP has been more willing (i'm talking about the base here) to buck the establishment in recent elections.

Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 10:50 AM (UzBwz)

21 No CAIN!, no gain!

Posted by: Raising CAIN! at June 26, 2011 10:50 AM (jEEpE)

22 i'd love for Ras to do potential matchups w/ Obama again, I want to see if anything has changed.

Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 10:52 AM (UzBwz)

23 I like Bachmann, but the problem is that we want the election to be a referendum on Obama.  If that's the case then we win.  But if Bachmann is the nominee we will have to spend a great deal of our energy fending off the suggestion that she is Sarah Palin 2.0, i.e., an idiot (in their minds).  And Bachmann has said some dumb things, for instance in 2007 she compared visiting Iraq to visiting the Mall of America.  What she meant was a comparison of the vastness of scale in both places, but it was still a dumb thing to say politically.  I just worry that more gaffes like this will ease the pressure off Obama in having to defend his record, because we all know he will get a major assist from the media.

Posted by: chemjeff at June 26, 2011 10:53 AM (WNGhA)

24 15 Meh,

In the end, there will be Only Romney.  chaos.

FIFY. 

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at June 26, 2011 10:53 AM (c0A3e)

25 I would vote for a huge, sentient, cancerous tumor over Obama.

We need to create this sentiment among more people.

If some of these candidates started really hitting Obama on his record, that would be helpful. "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" that sort of thing.

Any of these folks could beat Obama if some of them were willing to deliver him the rhetorical beating that capitalist society so desperately owes him.

Posted by: lauraw at June 26, 2011 10:53 AM (DbybK)

26 Iowa has pretty much become irrelevant. Huck won last time and he went nowhere.

I'm betting on a close run between Bachmann and Romney even though Romney has not spent much time in the State. Why? Because Iowa is a caucus and not an actual primary vote. Caucus depends more on the candidate's organization.

I think Romney will take NH going away because they love them some country club Republicans there.

Then comes SC. SC is up in the air whether of not they will even be able to hold a primary because the money to finance the primary was not included in the budget. They are now talking caucus which I think is stupid.

Posted by: Vic at June 26, 2011 10:54 AM (M9Ie6)

27

Posted by: chemjeff at June 26, 2011 02:53 PM (WNGhA)

you fucking RINO! people like YOU are destroying our country! you just want to be part of the boys club!/sarc

Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 10:54 AM (UzBwz)

28 15 Meh,

In the end, there will be Only Romney.

It's his turn.

Posted by: CoolCzech at June 26, 2011 02:46 PM (kUaEF)


yeah that's kinda what I'm afraid of
I'm a Pawlenty guy myself, right now, only because he seems to be one of the few people who is willing to tell people "no", and so I don't know how I can reconcile the two beliefs of "we're broke" and Romney's "oh yeah let's keep the ethanol subsidies flowing"

Posted by: chemjeff at June 26, 2011 10:56 AM (WNGhA)

29

I would vote for a huge, sentient, cancerous tumor over Obama.

I've gotten to the point i'd voter Crist over Obama, that's how much i've come to despise this a-hole

Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 11:00 AM (UzBwz)

30

When I saw the headline I thought this post was going to be about the end of the world.

...Oh wait, it is.

Posted by: gebrauchshund at June 26, 2011 11:00 AM (iYwUw)

31 Progressoverpeace, I agree that she is smart, she just says some dumb things from time to time.  Don't forget her "armed and dangerous" quote.  And her "let's investigate Congress to see if they are anti-American" quote.  They are just dumb things to say.  We don't want the election to be a referendum on Bachmann, we want it to be a referendum on Obama.  That's my point.

Posted by: chemjeff at June 26, 2011 11:05 AM (WNGhA)

32

Posted by: chemjeff at June 26, 2011 03:05 PM (WNGhA)

and there was that hiding in the bushes episode...

Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 11:06 AM (UzBwz)

33 and there was that hiding in the bushes episode...

Psst!  That was me.

Posted by: The Christine O'Donnell Flake-o-Meter at June 26, 2011 11:10 AM (cOkIN)

34

Posted by: The Christine O'Donnell Flake-o-Meter at June 26, 2011 03:10 PM (cOkIN)

yeah COD had one too but Bachmann had a similar episode, but I like Bachmann over COD any day

Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 11:12 AM (UzBwz)

35 Keep this in mind:

Point score for evals - positive = +1, neutral = 0, negative = -1

Bachmann +6

Ron Paul +6 (with baggage)

Santorum +5

Cain +4 (based on platform only)

Perry +3

T-Paw +2 (would be much lower w/o a lot of flip-flops)

Romney -2

Newt -2

Huntsman -3

Posted by: Vic at June 26, 2011 11:13 AM (M9Ie6)

36

Posted by: Vic at June 26, 2011 03:13 PM (M9Ie6)

oh yes we must always keep in mind the Vic-O'Meter

Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 11:15 AM (UzBwz)

37 I don't pay a lot of attention to so-called "gaffes" pushed by the MFM. Most of them are not really gaffes, they are statements taken out of context and all candidates have an occasional gaffe anyway. They are glad to push conservative "gaffes" endlessly while conveniently forgetting the other side.

If you speak on the campaign trail 10 hours a day 6 days a week you will misspeak a few times.

Posted by: Vic at June 26, 2011 11:16 AM (M9Ie6)

38 Posted by: progressoverpeace at June 26, 2011 03:13 PM (G/MYk)

Well I don't agree with calling essentially half of Congress to be traitors.  And I agree with her "armed and dangerous" comment, actually.  The point is, though, that they are stupid things to say politically.  In my mind she's kinda like our version of Joe Biden, except not senile.

Posted by: chemjeff at June 26, 2011 11:17 AM (WNGhA)

39 RON PAUL!

Posted by: Ron Paul! at June 26, 2011 11:20 AM (cOkIN)

40 Well I don't agree with calling essentially half of Congress to be traitors.

I do, but yes, it isn't the kind of thing you say if you're serious about getting elected President.

Oh that's right, we're not supposed to pay attention to whether these people can actually get elected....

Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at June 26, 2011 11:22 AM (cOkIN)

41 Perry just got in it officially at the end of last week.

What'd I miss here?  I thought he wasn't going to officially announce whether he was or not until early August.

Posted by: Lady in Black at June 26, 2011 11:23 AM (kOtPb)

42

Oh that's right, we're not supposed to pay attention to whether these people can actually get elected....

of course not undead, we should only focus on the Vic-O-Meter, and if someone we don't like is the nom-then 4 more years of Obama/sarc

Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 11:23 AM (UzBwz)

43

What a bunch of eeyores. Did you guys miss the election last year? Is Obamacare dead yet? How's that unemployment number, the value of your house, your retirement porfolio? Sent a kid to an expensive college only to have him living with you after graduation, or maybe you ARE one of those educated jobless? Obama has lost the youth vote, the senior vote, the independent vote, the novelty vote, the vote that proves your not a racist vote, etc.

 

Posted by: Carmelita at June 26, 2011 11:26 AM (7CEIi)

44

Posted by: Carmelita at June 26, 2011 03:26 PM (7CEIi)

Obama has lost the youth vote? what world do you live in, because i'd sure love to live in it!

Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 11:27 AM (UzBwz)

45

Posted by: progressoverpeace at June 26, 2011 03:28 PM (G/MYk)

revolution!

Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 11:29 AM (UzBwz)

46

Posted by: progressoverpeace at June 26, 2011 03:37 PM (G/MYk)

perhaps you can do yourself a favor and get a little bit of a sense of humor instead of being so uptight over everything

Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 11:38 AM (UzBwz)

47

the YRM Meter

Bachmann or Perry>Romney

everyone else is a pretender

and

GOP nom>Obama

Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 11:39 AM (UzBwz)

48 If a GOP wannabe has come out in favor of cap and trade and / or the AGW bullshit, he or she is a non-starter for me. One gas already been tete-a-tete with Nanzi Pelagra on the love seat and there are two morons who have talked as though they'd welcome the opportunity. I refer to Newt, Mittens and Huntsman. They are dead to me. Favorites now - in no particular order - are Cain and Bachmann. Perry will get a look over; I don't think Palin will run.

Posted by: No Whining at June 26, 2011 11:42 AM (c/ors)

49 Rick Perry has the strongest case to be made in the general election, the campaign chops to actually do so, and is conservative enough to unite most of the party. 

Posted by: Y-not at June 26, 2011 11:42 AM (TFxd0)

50

Posted by: No Whining at June 26, 2011 03:42 PM (c/ors)

is your handle an oxymoron?

Posted by: Y-not at June 26, 2011 03:42 PM (TFxd0)

I hope so, he looks like someone who can unite the Bachmann/Palin and Romney/Pawlenty base

Posted by: YRM at June 26, 2011 11:44 AM (UzBwz)

51 11 2012 speculation?  Right now I'm leaning towards Yellowstone blowing up.  My second guess is asteroid strike. 

Posted by: alexthechick

Sigh, no one see's the obvious...

Islam-o-nuke, no idea where but they do seem to hate NY city the most.

Personally, I have no idea who's going to take it this time but you can bet the farm its not going to be a RINO or a squish.

Posted by: Gmac at June 26, 2011 11:56 AM (sRX50)

52 55 Rick Perry has the strongest case to be made in the general election, the campaign chops to actually do so, and is conservative enough to unite most of the party. 

Posted by: Y-not at June 26, 2011 03:42 PM (TFxd0)

All true, and here's the other one: He doesn't like to lose.  He's a ruthless political animal.

Posted by: AmishDude at June 26, 2011 11:58 AM (73tyQ)

53 Islam-o-nuke, no idea where but they do seem to hate NY city the most.

Yeah, why can't they hate Detroit?  I mean, they have the easiest access to it.

Posted by: Urban planners at June 26, 2011 11:59 AM (73tyQ)

54 @58
Of the ones we think are running, he's the only one I'd feel enthusiastic about working for.  He's conservative enough for me, but more importantly, he's accomplished some real shit under difficult circumstances and he would not fold like a cheap suit against Obama (as McCain did). 

I like certain aspects of some of the others, but I also have some qualms about them that would prevent me from being able to feel completely enthusiastic about their candidacies.

The only other one in the horizon - but who is not running - is Paul Ryan.  I respect him and would feel honored to work for him. 

Posted by: Y-not at June 26, 2011 12:03 PM (TFxd0)

55

The GOP and LSM put Romney and some lame-oid we've never heard of on the ticket. Barry wins 62% of the vote, however voter turnout is 50% of the last election as all the conservatives stay home.

America fades into the dust. I cry.

Posted by: chuck in st paul at June 26, 2011 12:50 PM (EhYdw)

56

"Bachmann has the highest net favorability: plus-53 points."

 

they more they see of Bachmann the more people are going to like her, she will win Iowa. If the Party gets behind her at that point she's the next President.

problem: the McCain/Graham wing of the Party will fight her every step of the way because she isn't progressive-lite as they are.

Posted by: Shoey at June 26, 2011 12:52 PM (m6OUa)

57 Huntsman and Perry are the same person.

Posted by: IllegalslovePerry at June 26, 2011 02:03 PM (caxaB)

58 Why wasn't Ted Nugent included?

Posted by: Buffoon at June 26, 2011 02:26 PM (DioaK)

59 Perry getting in only helps Romney in IA. He takes away from Bachmann possibly allowing Romney to take IA. If so, games over.

Posted by: aerofanatic at June 26, 2011 02:49 PM (q1Tbv)

60 I think Sarah Palin isn't running for president now either.  I think she'll want to run for McCain's senate seat, if she decides to take a huge pay cut.  Despite what a lot of folks like to read into the Palin/Bachman relationship, i think they are friends and very similar with Bachman having some valuable tax experience.  The goal for Palin is the good of the country and if that means sitting this dance out and going for the senate or continuing earning mega bucks and influencing every little thing from the sidelines, then that is what she is going to do since she admittedly doesn't play by the rules.

I love rick Santorum.  He's a straight shooter not unlike Herman Cain and very good with foreign policy.  Just wish the rest of the country would see what I see.  Still hoping Rudy will take a shot.  Don't think Perry getting into the race will affect Bachman.  It might affect Romney though as he isn't an Iowan by birth.  I think Huntsman is the MSM's pick which makes me want to run away from him as fast as I can.  When Huntsman does something, anything on his own, not given to him becasue of his family name, power and influence and of course megabucks then maybe regular Americans might take him seriously.  People think his religion is his hindrance.  It's not, he has privilege syndrome bad.

Posted by: curious at June 26, 2011 03:31 PM (k1rwm)

61   I wish Cain had run for a Senate seat, (hell, even a House seat) rather than simply vaulting into the Presidential race. It's, almost, like applying for the Olympics after having skipped years and years of Olympic-quality training. I say almost because he obviously has talent and experience as a leader, but only as a leader. He would have been awesome with some political experience. I don't know how much of an "Anti-Establishment" candidacy, like what Newt's supposedly is, he's supposed to be running but I would have loved to have him possess some list of accomplishments. Same goes for Rubio, actually. I would seriously prefer him not to get in the race as a VP with out having sponsored a Bill. He's written some solid Op-Ed's, I know that, but I'm not sure if he's co-sponsored any bills. Yes he has a Narrative, but that's all he's got.

Posted by: Schindler's golden nazi pin at June 26, 2011 03:53 PM (rSiVQ)

62          Regarding Perry, I followed a very, very long debate in the HotAir comments following up on the story of Perry tossing his cowboy hat in the ring in August. He has the best Narrative of all the candidates to deliver because of his jobs-record, (though I do like T-Paw's. His record and rhetoric, unfortunately, seems too weak). The rest of his record is extraordinarily diverse. (Is that any surprise after 10 long years of governing?) He's ok on immigration, great on social conservative issues as well as on guns. He is, however, alllll over the map when it comes to Big Government/Spending/Mandates. I'd honestly say he seems like Bush III, with a much better mouth, as well as a strong record on jobs, which is kind of a BFD to the public. More important than spending anyway.
oh btw, what's Dave-in-Texas' opinion on Perry? I've completely missed it. (Unlike Breitbart, I don't usually read the comments. Come to think of it I almost never comment on them period.)

Posted by: Schindler's golden nazi pin at June 26, 2011 04:06 PM (rSiVQ)

63 Are you interested in Soccer? Right, you really like playing football. Plus, Soccer is just getting to be a worldwide popular sport nowadays. As fans of Soccer, you should get fully prepared at first. For example, you would better prepare a suitable pair of soccer cleats , a set of soccer jerseys or whatever. Otherwise, you will not enjoy an exciting football match. Anyway, it is necessary and essential to prepare for the football match in a good way.(yang)

Posted by: soccer cleats at June 26, 2011 09:56 PM (ESwwK)

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