1 Good morning

2 That is a spooky looking cat

3 Good Morning Moronettes and Morons

4 If you haven't started preparing for the storm that is coming, you might want to get busy.

5 Help. Me.

6 I'm certain that Barry will be congratulating him for his example to others:

If IÂ’m not mistaken, heÂ’s a jobs advisor.  One must say heÂ’s doing a crackup job.

7 Bread and circuses. Don't we ever learn?

8

How are those winds of change churning along for everyone?

Winds of Change

Do you feel it?

The tempo has changed and well understood rules no longer seem to apply to anything any longer.  Just a few months ago, all we heard was the rush to spend money.  TARP, Stimulus, Bailouts, Obamacare...all multi billion dollar expenses.

It's funny how the cold breath of the laws of mathematics changes everything.  The laws of mathematics and economics are the liberals' hangman's noose, focusing their mind on survival of Big Government.  Change is in the air, and many people now can sense that there is a seismic shift in the established order of things.

 

9

sigh.

that Dalrymple article really saddens me.

With Obamacare coming into effect in 2014, I think that's our future.

10 Since I'm too pissed off to comment about the clusterfuck in D.C., and Monty did mention CA (my former state), note that Jerry "Governor Moonbeam" Brown signed a bill yesterday giving state-paid financial assistance to illegal-alien college students. It's the same "DREAM Act" the shithead Dems want to pass nationally.

Amazing, We have less than no money, but there's enough to hand over to illegals.

I am so glad I bailed on that shithole state.

11

I'm sorry, I haven't heard of any of this, so I'll just leave it to the smart people in Washington to decide.

Also, if you do not go limp as a pasta noodle in the face of the President's undeniable glorious penumbra, you are an unserious demagogue.  So sayeth Gabe Malor.

We here at Circa International are pissed this morning.

12

I saw that Italy called off it's August bond auction.

 

13 Some idiot Economist from SMU (which means he's not an economist at all, he's an economics professor) was spouting the normal lefty talking points about the debt-ceiling (including the lie that SS checks would not go out).  I really wish the morning show were a call-in show...  Oh well, I guess I'll just settle for never sending my kids to SMU.

Not that such a scenario was too likely anyway.

14

And if we're suffering, think about what everybody else is going through:

India raises interest rates in a bid to slow inflation

The Reserve Bank of India raised its main rate to 8% from 7.5%, the eleventh increase since March 2010.

Inflation has been accelerating and a key measure of price growth hit 9.44% in June, pushed up by higher food and fuel costs.

15

(including the lie that SS checks would not go out). 

Did he admit there's no such thing as the lockbox?  Just once I would like someone to follow up and ask for an explanation as to why the checks won't go out if the money is supposedly in a lockbox. 

 

16

Gold as money.

Decent video

17 After the collapse of communism everywhere it has been tried despite the hundreds of millions of lives that were sacrificed on the alter of progressivism, the entire world is being treated to a spectacular fireworks like display of what should be the proverbial nail in the coffin of progressivism.   Yet the left, virtually everywhere, refuses to accept that their utopian ideology will not work.  Instead of accepting the shovel to the face wake up call that shows that human nature is the monkey in the wrench of their idiot ideology that will positively not allow progressivism to work, they still insist on believing that somewhere in the hearts of every human being is a mythical switch somewhere that if they can just activate it, will make everyone go against their own interest and work anyway despite being paid not to.

The obtuse is strong in those lefties.

18 barry, just tell us where the lock box is........

19 Did he admit there's no such thing as the lockbox?  Just once I would like someone to follow up and ask for an explanation as to why the checks won't go out if the money is supposedly in a lockbox.

No, he didn't.  The Morning show is more news/comedy than news/comment or news/opinion, so Hal J. is kind of flaky about that stuff.  Actually, he's a pretty good indicator of how "most Texans" feel/think.  He's conservative, but he sometimes lets his "feelings" get in the way of his brain.

20 >>Some idiot Economist from SMU (which means he's not an economist at all, he's an economics professor) Thats like saying AmishDude isn't a real mathematician he's just a math professor. You're just begging for a lecture.

21 I saw that Italy called off it's August bond auction.

Yeah, they'd have had to pay nearly a full percentage-point-higher vig if they sold any debt right now. They're hoping that the bond markets calm down after the most recent Greek "bailout" and that their rates go back down. I'm not sure how hopeful I'd be if I were them -- and by skipping the August auction, they're going to be dipping into their capital reserves to fund day-to-day activities, which just means they'll have to borrow more when they do go back to the markets. So if rates don't go down -- or indeed, if they go even higher -- then Italy may just have screwed themselves.

22 Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at July 26, 2011 09:07 AM (jx2j9)

Of course, you wing-nut, the only way progressivism will work is if you fall in line and do what the state tells you.  If you'd just do that, everything would be fine, but you stupid knuckle-draggers cling to your "liberty" like it's ever done anything but cause more inequality.

/lib-tard off.

Now I'm going to go throw up.

23 Posted by: JackStraw at July 26, 2011 09:09 AM (TMB3S)

If the only place you use a "theoretical" discipline is in the tightly controlled environment of a college-classroom, you're just a 'x' professor.

Mathematics and Hard Sciences aren't quite the same thing.  There are still mathematical/scientific theories, but there are ways to prove or disprove those.  Economics, Sociology, Poli-Sci, and so forth work by assertion in the classroom.

Therefore, the only way I'll ever call someone an economist/sociologist/whatever-oligist is if someone (other than a university or news outfit) trusts your judgement enough to pay you for it.

24

Italy called off its bond auction?  That's notgood.com 

And, btw, buying a boat right now isn't necessarily stupid.  If you live in the blue-state Northeast, being a few hundred yards offshore is a good idea when the SHTF. 

"Unlock the small arms locker, and set course to North Carolina" or some other state that's not in debt over their heads.

25

DOOM kept a rollin'

all night long

26 Of course Obama will do everything in his power to prevent government programs from being cut.  Can you imagine the fallout he would have to deal with from government workers unions if all of the sudden the only sector of the economy that has shown employment growth (even though it really isn't a revenue sector) started laying off workers? 
He'd be toast.  The few remaining unions in the private sector would join with their red brethren in the public sector to eviscerate Obama.
And yet, cutting government is exactly what needs to happen.  Talk about painting yourself into a corner.

27 I don't understand why the municipalities of Cally and elsewhere that are being crushed by pension obligations haven't stampeded into the Bankruptcy Court system.  Its there only hope. If they are still thinking Fed Bailout at this point, they are insane.

28 On that Winds of Change article: Whatever happened to the culture that weathered the Great Depression?  Why the "doom, and gloom, and misery on me?" articles.

I get some of them (I look forward to the morning DOOM! post), but some of them don't sound like "gird your loins," but rather, "abandon all hope, ye who enter here."

Come on, folks, even if everything collapses, we can survive (and, I'll go further: thrive) if we keep our heads up, our backs straight, and our hands busy (with work: not the AoSHQ lifestyle).

29 Moved from the Chaffetz is an evil purist thread:

I'm still trying to figure out what as "no as no can be" fails to pull up anything other than ace of spades in Google. 

If anyone has the link to Chaffetz's "quoted" remarks, please post it. 

30 "Unlock the small arms locker, and set course to North Carolina" or some other state that's not in debt over their heads. UM, No. We have enough N/E Tards trying to FK up our Gov. The reverse blockade will be in effect.

31

Hey NC, ya gotta let me in.  I can prove I have roots in NC!  No deal?

Hey SC, ya gotta let me in.  My great great granddaddy lived there, somewhere.

32 Okay, I just read the Transcript of el JEFfe's speech last night.  I'm so glad I didn't watch that: I probably would have broken my relatively new TV- and boy would my wife have been ticked if I'd done that.

What amazes me, though, is that it's exactly the same talking points (no modification at all that I could tell) that he's been spouting for weeks, and it's almost like he thinks he's all clever by bringing them up again.

Does he really think we haven't figured out what the debate is about?  Does he really think that any American who would have watched that didn't already know what was going on?

33

Go COCKS!

34 @32 The Greatest Orator of All Time is now reduced to recycling his golden oldies. 

Next week, he goes on tour with Cheap Trick and Duran Duran.

35 Turned OFF FOX and FRIENDS this morning.
Gretchen is the only one of the three with a halfassed cogent thought or halfway decent question.
They let some tool of the Lyin kING go on and on talking over them spouting the Lyin kINGS talking points over and over.
When Gretchen tried to ask a decent question either Douchey or Kilmeadedy would come up with some lame ass pandering prose. Kilmeade had one good question and let the tool tell him he was wrong about OBLahBlahs plan being shot down 97 to 0 in the Senate.

Fox needs to fire Kilmeadey relegate Douchey to two minutes of WEATHER and bring some thoughful correspondents over from the business side to sit with gretchen. Three tools are almost as insufferable as the POSPOTUS. ARRRGGGHHHH! Might as well watch Mathews and ODonnell

36 The South Carolina Gamecocks finally put good teams on the field just as our civilization begins to collapse.

A coincidence?  I think not.  You people need to go back to losing.  It's patriotic.

37 You no-good, shiftless gun and Bible clingers need to get with my program! -- Barky O'BeenDoin', AKA Magical MisterPissedOffAtMe

38 What amazes me, though, is that it's exactly the same talking points (no modification at all that I could tell) that he's been spouting for weeks,

Exactly what Krauthammer called it, a campaign speech. And no doubt he'll keep giving it through November 2012. Some moron cracked that TOTUS faxed out its resume last night.

Having watched it, the only positive thing I can think of is he didn't do that whistle through his teeth thing as much as usual.

 

39 Earth shattering kaboom (HotAir)?

/great-news-downgrade-could-come-as-soon-as-friday/

40

Professor Putz thinks that he can keep giving the same speech over and over.

He's all about the class (and race) warfare. 

He's a disingenuous Marxist Prat.

41 Posted by: A Balrog of Morgoth at July 26, 2011 09:30 AM (agD4m)

Of course, I then read Speaker Boehner's transcript, and, while I like the talking points better, I really would have liked some specific numbers. 

Until and unless I see specific numbers that include real cuts this year (to already authorized spending), then I won't believe they're serious either.  Which is why I still support the option of "do nothing."

42 President "I ruined America's credit rating" needs to make another speech explaining how the downgrade is actually Bush's fault.

43 Last night I gave a review of this semester's lectures.

This final exam consists of multiple false choice and fill in the blank check questions.  You have one week to take the test.

Begin

 

44

 Which is why I still support the option of "do nothing."

 

'None of the Above', brother.

45 Posted by: JackStraw at July 26, 2011 09:09 AM (TMB3S)

AmishDude is not a mathematics professor. He is an exotic dancer.

46 I think we're just seeing yet more politically-motivated "pressure" to drive the two sides to a compromise.

I'm not so sure there, Monty.

I've read several of the statements from Moody's and S&P, and it seems like they're saying "We don't care if there's a compromise on the debt limit.  There needs to be fundamental change in how we're dealing with debt at all.  If you don't get serious about lowering the debt (and we're not the CBO, so we don't have to pretend that increased taxes also increase revenue), then you're going to get downgraded."

That doesn't sound like a "politically-motivated 'pressure' to ... compromise" it sounds like (if it's political at all) "Listen to the Republicans."

47 Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at July 26, 2011 09:41 AM (LH6ir)

That would have to be pretty freaking exotic.

48

If you like your ugly pussy...

 

49 46 Finally, something we can all agree on...........that cat is ugly.

Posted by: Mallamutt, RINO President for Life at July 26, 2011 09:40 AM (OWjjx)

Ugly is the new beautiful ala Madame POTUS on the cover of every magazine.

50

Now this is the kind of purified, distilled, essence of DOOM I've come to expect around here.  Utterly depressing, especially that "Winds of Change" article.   

51 " it sounds like (if it's political at all) "Listen to the Republicans, except for that Droopy Dog-looking clown in the Senate and his senile wingman from Oklahoma.  Do not listen to those guy.  Oh, and Captain Queeg and his Boy Friday.  Ignore all the Northeastern GOP too.  You know what, do not listen to any Senators not named Rubio, Paul, Lee or DeMint."

52 That doesn't sound like a "politically-motivated 'pressure' to ... compromise" it sounds like (if it's political at all) "Listen to the Republicans."

Never forget how heavily regulated the Big Three ratings agencies are, nor how beholden they are to the Federal government. For all intents and purposes, the ratings-agencies are GSE's, not independent firms. Furthermore, they are fully aware that a huge number of sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, hedge funds, and banks hold a lot of US debt (not to mention GSE's like Fan, Fred, Ginnie, and Sallie) -- and that a downgrade may trigger unexpected resonances further down the chain. They may (and probably will, and should) downgrade eventually; I just don't think it will happen this week.

But as I always say: if I were actually smart, I'd be way richer than I am now.

53 Good morning Monty and all I'm back from the dentist. I am reading the responses on Gabe's thread and I am very disheartened.  I see Boner's plan as another set of phony cuts and an attempt to "not get blame" by surrendering.

What is even worse is I see fellow Morons, who are even the normal squishes, playing the "this is the best we can do" shit and we have to bide our time and not piss off the voters so we can win seats.

The damn Republic is about to frakin collapse and we are still playing go along to get along political games to win seats in frakin purple States!

I am now at the point where I do not think we can save this country. There aren't enough people left who give a damn anymore.

I need to start looking for some land in the mountains. The country I am in has too many people in it. I feel sorry for Ace in NYC.

54 >>"We don't care if there's a compromise on the debt limit. There needs to be fundamental change in how we're dealing with debt at all. If you don't get serious about lowering the debt (and we're not the CBO, so we don't have to pretend that increased taxes also increase revenue), then you're going to get downgraded." Thats exactly what they have been saying. My biggest complaint with the Republicans is that they have not been making this point. They have allowed Obama and the Dems to make the debt ceiling the topic of the debate. If we don't get real structural changes to the debt we are going to get a downgrade. I've been of the opinion over the last couple weeks that its inevitable at this point no matter what happens in DC.

55

AmishDude is not a mathematics professor. He is an exotic dancer.

 

I suspect he's also lying about not being Amish.

56

Don't think they will unleash the hounds and downgrade?

Someone, a very big someone, took the other side of that bet on Thursday, to the tune of a cool billion:

http://tinyurl.com/44x7u93

    If there is a downgrade, and Ts tumble, that entity stands to make $10B off that little trade. If it doesn't go down, they lose the $1B.

    The entity making that trade is a big boy, shore 'nuff.

57 With an estimated half a trillion in bonds held by institutions that are prohibited from holding anything less than AAA, I was thinking of doing something crazy, like buying puts on a bond ETF.  Probably a bad idea, should just stick to moving stuff off shore and out of dollars.

58 who are NOT even the normal squishes,

brain type fart

59 Posted by: Monty at July 26, 2011 09:46 AM (/0a60)

I'm not even making a guess about the "this week" thing.  Yours is probably better than mine.  I just also don't go all the way to assuming this is mere "pressure."

More like the proverbial "warning shot" or "shot across the bow."

60 UM, No. We have enough N/E Tards trying to FK up our Gov. The reverse blockade will be in effect.

Posted by: North Carolina at July 26, 2011 09:25 AM (ZDUD4)

 

That reverse blockade is a darn good idea.  That's the one good thing about Michigan right now.  Nobody is trying to get in.  Just out.  Now that we have a Rep governor and legistlature, there'd be some hope for us if we could just kick Detroit out into the lake and let it sink.    

61 Oh and damn that is one ugly cat. Why would people want a cat like that?

62 Monty, do you understand how Swiss money market claims work as a financial instrument?

63 64 Oh and damn that is one ugly cat. Why would people want a cat like that?

Posted by: Vic

Is he an evil cat?

64 Posted by: Vic at July 26, 2011 09:46 AM (M9Ie6)

My family has cabins in the Mountains of New Mexico.  Maybe I'll set up a survivors colony there.  We and the other Morons with some gumption can rebuild civilization starting in the Lincoln National Forrest.

65

 I feel sorry for Ace in NYC.

We could use an Ewok in the Mountaintop Fortress...the sheep, they get weary.

66 64 Oh and damn that is one ugly cat. Why would people want a cat like that?

I knew someone who had one of those cats.  Apparently, they are very good lap cats, presumably because they are friggin' freezing all of the time.  And they feel like velvet. 

George Costanza would probably like a cat like that. 

67 68

 I feel sorry for Ace in NYC.

We could use an Ewok in the Mountaintop Fortress...the sheep, they get weary.

Posted by: Idaho Moron at July 26, 2011 09:50 AM (qaGP9)

He can always go live in Central Park. Plenty of places to hide. Have to adapt to eating the long pig but he's honed his skills hobo hunting.

68 Can someone help me here? Given that even Harry Reid and the dems have moved away from tax increases in their negotiations, what explains the President's harping on taxes last night? Given that his advisors must have told him that the tax issue is lost, at least for this round, is there any explanation for his focus on increasing taxes in last night's speech other than his thinking is becoming delusional? I would much prefer to think there there is a rational basis for the President's conduct (as much as I may disagree with it) than to think the President is irrational.

69

Posted by: Bob Saget at July 26, 2011 09:47 AM (F/4zf)

 

Go Long on Loonies, eh!

70 Posted by: progressoverpeace at July 26, 2011 09:48 AM (G/MYk)

See, I'm not so sure about that.  I don't know enough about the agencies themselves (or who pays them) to think I know their motivations.

Because of that, I tend to put them in my "Ernest, but idiots" category (where most of the world falls).  Assuming "Ernest, but idiots," then I can believe they bought into the line (like so many others) that the stimulus and QE1 (at least) and TARP were all "necessary."  IIRC, they first started talking downgrade when the OCare debate really heated up.

71 44 Last night I gave a review of this semester's lectures. Posted by: Professor Mom Jeans at July 26, 2011 09:40 AM (agD4m) And a sneak preview of how pissy I am becoming because the golden anniversary of my descent to live among you hoi polloi will not be the occasion for showering me with loud hosannas that it ought to be. You wanna I should sic 'Chelle on your dietary choices again, beyotches? -- Barky O'BeenDoin', AKA Magical MisterPissedOffAtMe

72

We and the other Morons with some gumption can rebuild civilization starting in the Lincoln National Forrest.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at July 26, 2011 09:50 AM (8y9MW)

 

Meh.  Sounds like a hell of a lot of work.  If things really were to go Mad Max on us (which I don't think will happen) it would be better to just be killed in the opening riots.  The living would envy the dead. 

Besides - rebuilding civilization would be impossible - culture has been too badly damaged. 

73 Given that even Harry Reid and the dems have moved away from tax increases in their negotiations, what explains the President's harping on taxes last night?

Real guess? He's stupid.

Guess assuming some level of political acuity?  By still calling for Tax Hikes, he makes the Democrats' actual position (blank check in return for theoretical spending cuts... sometime) seem more reasonable.

74

He can always go live in Central Park. Plenty of places to hide.

 

Metro North will get him halfway to the Catskill Mountain Park...

just follow the the Three-Mile Creek, north, out of Brewster and you can hop from Reservoir to Reservoir all the way to Roscoe!

Trout, Deer, Grouse and Woodcock abound the whole way.

75

 Good morning Monty and all I'm back from the dentist

The dentist, the Doom thread and a purity fight?  Dear heavens, Vic, just put your head in the oven and get it over with.

Oh and damn that is one ugly cat. Why would people want a cat like that?

That is not a cat.  That's some Japanese idea of what a cat should be.  Though, hmm, needs more tentacles. 

76

Dear Monty,

I find myself looking forward to the Daily Doom more and more. Being funemployed/boned leaves me time to pursue a superfluous certification at the local CC, read every motherfucking article you recommend AND mock the libtards in the comments before brunch/pbj time. (I'm switching to honey within the next few days cuz I don't wanna get into a brunch rut. But I've been debating if this is the right way to go. Maybe, instead of eating just grape and then just apricot, I should mix it up. Just rut-proof brunch altogether.)

Keep up the good work.

Sincerely,

CozMark

77

Besides - rebuilding civilization would be impossible - culture has been too badly damaged. 

Posted by: Reactionary at July 26, 2011 09:55 AM (xUM1Q)

Just think 200 years from now some idiot Chinese historian (probably named Me Long Dong) will be writing about the "failure of capitalism.

78 “I love these folks who helped get us in this mess and then suddenly say, ‘Well, this is Obama’s economy, That’s fine. Give it to me! My job is to solve problems, not to stand on the sidelines and harp and gripe.”

79 More like the proverbial "warning shot" or "shot across the bow."

I think we're in agreement on this point -- the ratings-agencies were badly embarassed by the subprime fiasco, and by their failure to catch the Eurozone meltdown early. But the problem is that they are facing an enormous amount of political pressure -- pushback from Uncle Sugar, to whom they are in thrall. As I keep saying, you don't exactly have financial superstars working at the ratings firms; they are the C students of Wall Street. They'll downgrade (they have no choice unless they want to look ridiculous again), but it's a question of timing -- and I think they will remain pliable servants of the US Government in this regard.

But...I could be wrong.

80 I would much prefer to think there there is a rational basis for the President's conduct (as much as I may disagree with it) than to think the President is irrational.

Posted by: USA

 

I'll try to help.

1.he has no other cards to play.

2. He's not that smart, but he is stubborn and believes in himself.

3.The left is giving him grief right now. Though they will probably come back (where else are they gonna go) they are making some small amount of trouble.

4. There is always the chance that he will pull a Clinton and take credit for what the House does. Heaven knows he has a media willing to lie for him.

81 Posted by: Reactionary at July 26, 2011 09:55 AM (xUM1Q)

Then you don't have to come.
The living should always envy the dead- being dead is a lot easier than being alive.

82

DOOM comes for us all!  Even Barry.

83 Can someone help me here? Given that even Harry Reid and the dems have moved away from tax increases in their negotiations, what explains the President's harping on taxes last night?

Simple, it wasn't about the budget. It was about campaigning. He has thrown Harry under the campaign bus.

84 Posted by: progressoverpeace at July 26, 2011 09:56 AM (G/MYk)

Okay, that explains Moody's (though, I'll point out that, however repulsive Warren Buffet is, he's also very, very good at making money), how about S&P and some of the others?

85 that was a 15 minute temper tantrum followed by a 5 minute spanking.......

86 The living should always envy the dead- being dead is a lot easier than being alive.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at July 26, 2011 09:58 AM (8y9MW)

Er-rah, you would think that, er-rah. Try having the Barbed Cock O'Satan in your alimentary canal 24x7.

87 77. Guess assuming some level of political acuity? By still calling for Tax Hikes, he makes the Democrats' actual position (blank check in return for theoretical spending cuts... sometime) seem more reasonable. So he can campaign that he fought for higher taxes but congressional democrats wouldn't support him? Maybe, but I don't see that helping him with independent voters.

88 If we cut government spending, that drops right off the GDP number, so if we balanced the budget, our GDP would shrink $1.5 Trillion. On paper it would look like a disaster, but it would be a good thing because that $1.5 Trillion is just worthless fluff buying votes for the Dems.

What does GDP growth look like if you remove government spending? I'll bet by that measure we're in a depression right now.

89 I'm a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure!

(It needed to be said.)

90 Unexpected.  New home sales down 2%.

91 Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at July 26, 2011 09:59 AM (jx2j9)

That's awesome.

Why, oh why, doesn't the GOP see that now is not the time for "compromise?"  It's time to nail el JEFfe to the wall.  Politically speaking.

92 Given that his advisors must have told him that the tax issue is lost, at least for this round, is there any explanation for his focus on increasing taxes in last night's speech other than his thinking is becoming delusional? I would assume neither that his advisors have told him the tax issue is lost nor that his base of malcontents and spongers would let him stop harping on it.

93 Does he really think we haven't figured out what the debate is about?  Does he really think that any American who would have watched that didn't already know what was going on?
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at July 26, 2011 09:28 AM

Osama Obama still has his hardcore followers, who will bleat "Obama good, Repubs bad" every time he opens his lying yap. Think: NY Slimes, ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN.

He also has a cadre of worthless faux "conservatives" (think Tepid Air, NRO, etc.) who are so hung up on the games of politics and the "optics" of every move that they will stand by, sipping tea and mouthing polite demurrals, as the fucking ship of state finally slips under the waves.

And then there are the worthless Repubs in D.C. (Bitch McConnell, and on and on) who are addicted to spending and perks and will therefore cave in and compromise.

It must be different in D.C. When you max out your credit card, the bank pulls the plug on you. No money, no spending. It's that simple. Can't pay for your Escalade? The finance company repossesses the sucker, no ifs, ands or buts.

94 We do not have to "rebuild civilization". We have to survive the anarchy of collapse with enough people to come out, kill the cannibals that haven't died from weird diseases yet and hope that some dictator for life has not taken over.

And that last thing is the most likely occurrence of the collapse.

95

Then of what value is their prognostications, anyway?  If they thought that then they are uselss for economic forecasts, let alone monetary ones ... long-range ones, too!  It's intellectually offensive.

(Sorry to have done this in parts)

Posted by: progressoverpeace at July 26, 2011 10:02 AM (G/MYk)

Opportunity in chaos. It worked before TARP, stimulus...

96 So he can campaign that he fought for higher taxes but congressional democrats wouldn't support him? Maybe, but I don't see that helping him with independent voters.

He would be (in that scenario) counting on the MFM to put all these speeches down the memory-hole, and only play up the fact that he was able to "avert disaster" by "being the only adult in the room."

Which is not to say that would work, just that it would be a tactic with some chance of success.

Then of what value is their prognostications, anyway?  If they thought that then they are uselss for economic forecasts, let alone monetary ones ... long-range ones, too!  It's intellectually offensive.

On sovereign debt, especially the US, I'd say "none," except for the part where they're accepted as experts- and sometimes perception does trump reality.  At least, temporarily- and sometimes just long enough for reality to catch up.

97 I always have a need to ask stupid questions like, who are these S&P folks anyway? Well, first thing I did not know was that S&P is a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Companies. You know, the textbook people that have been ripping off our schools and college students for decades. There is much secrecy regarding the board of Directors of S&P however I was able to locate the Pres., Deven Sharma. Who is this man? Mr. Sharma joined The McGraw-Hill Companies in January 2002 from Booz Allen Hamilton, a global management consulting company, where he was a partner. During his 14 years with that firm, he provided guidance to client companies on business strategy and globalization, as well as on branding and sales management. Much of his experience includes work with global corporations in the US, Latin America, Europe and parts of Asia. Hmmm. Some international Globalization stuff going on there. Mr. Sharma holds a bachelor's degree from the Birla Institute of Technology in India, a master's degree from the University of Wisconsin and a doctoral degree in Business Management from Ohio State University. Hmmm, some fine libtard institutions, WI? The libtardyest. He has authored several publications on competitive strategy, customer solutions, sales and marketing. He is chairman of the Board of Directors for CRISIL, a Standard & Poor's company and India's leading ratings, research, risk and policy advisory company. What is CRISIL? If you look it up you will see it has individuals like Mr. Ravinder Singhania, He is a consultant to the World Bank and Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD). The World Bank? No shit? My point is this, As long as we put food in the international Pig Trough we can do what we want. If we stop, which we will have to, to balance our own books, The international money men will come after us hard. That's what these Credit ratings agencies are doing right now.

98

"if we could just kick Detroit out into the lake and let it sink."

GRRReeeeeeeeeeeeeeeen Acres is the place for me!

Farm livin' is a luxury!

C'mon down, get yesef some prime unincorporated city acreage! Snap beans and winter wheat for evbody!

99 Off damn sock!!!!

100 87 Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at July 26, 2011 09:59 AM (jx2j9) Those numbers provide a rational explanation for Obama's speech last night. His base is imploding and he hopes some old fashion class warfare will rally his base. Repugnant, yet still rational.

101 What kills me is the manipulation of polls. Two thirds of U.S. Americans want a compromise. A compromise means a tax increase, so by that logic, two thirds of U.S. Americans want a tax increase. The media then comes out and says that polls indicate that the majority want a tax increase, as if telling us that is what we want will make us want that. They really think in their heart of hearts that we are stupid.

102 Is it too tinhatty to think that it's Soros who is shorting the dollar?  I mean, that's what he did to the pound to make that billion, right?  I can totally see him doing that as a fu to everyone. 

103 Posted by: alexthechick at July 26, 2011 10:13 AM (VtjlW)

I don't think it's too tinfoil hatty, but I wouldn't put too much money on that proposition, either.

104 We have to survive the anarchy of collapse with enough people to come out, kill the cannibals that haven't died from weird diseases yet and hope that some dictator for life has not taken over. And that last thing is the most likely occurrence of the collapse. Help restore order to America's Wastelands in style! Sign up for my Death's Head Legions today and get a nail-studded Louisville Slugger, personally autographed by me, Empire of Jeff.

105 >>Then of what value is their prognostications, anyway? If they thought that then they are uselss for economic forecasts, let alone monetary ones ... long-range ones, too! It's intellectually offensive. While I don't disagree that the ratings agencies aren't necessarily the home of the best and brightest and their ratings are questionable, so what? They have long been recognized by the financial markets as the arbiters of the game. If they decide to downgrade the US it will have real consequences whether you or I agree with their methodology or timing.

106 "My point is this, As long as we put food in the international Pig Trough we can do what we want." All the world's problems boil down to this. Humanity has always had a criminal element that does not hesitate to act on their sense of entitlement to the fruits of others' labor. They have evolved. They no longer need to strongarm you in a dark alley or along a desolate highway because they have community organized armies of envy that vote them the reins of power needed to steal under the perverted color of law.

107 Stocks are off to a moderate loss; the dollar is weakening once again; commodity prices are fairly flat at the open.
 
No earthquakes in the market this morning. ZH keeps mentioning just how thin the trading volumes are in stocks. Individual speculators have in large part left the rigged game.
 
Insider sellers/buyers ratios are and have been bearish for months and months.
 
None of the debt plans on the table cut deficit spending by any significant percentage.
 
We are approaching Plan Z -- "and then a miracle happens".

108 Is Chi-Town Jerry banned from Monty's threads?  Because every time I read one of his comments on the economy I come away stoopider than before.

109 57

AmishDude is not a mathematics professor. He is an exotic dancer.

 

I suspect he's also lying about not being Amish.

Posted by: garrett at July 26, 2011 09:47 AM (qaGP9)

I bet the hat and the beard drive the women wild!

110 Phase 1: Collect Underpants Phase 2: Give Same Speech Repeatedly Phase 3: Profit

111

L8R H8RS

 

112 Which is why I still support the option of "do nothing."

So you support the Lyin kING?
How do you feel about 24/7 golf, parties and vacations? HeHe.
Oh and speeches how about utterly stupid, condescending, pandering, pathetic speeches? (<:

113

"Profit" is just the capitalists' term for "taking someone else's money".

And "balance" just another word, for nothing else to take...

114 In other clusterfuck news Jerry "Moonbeam" Brown has signed the CA DREAM act into being.

Because all that extra money needs to get used pronto, esse! Before it's no good.

115 If you'd like to see an interesting (and accessible) comparison of federal spending under Bush versus spending under Obama, check out this link.

http://tinyurl.com/3uyb4os

116

No time to read today's Doom nor the comments, but I do want to point out, in case no one else has, the chorus to the gospel song I assume Monty is referring to with his title:

Get on board, little chi'ren, ("children" to those of you not fortunate enough to be southerners)

Get on board, little chi'ren,

Get on board, little chi'ren

THERE'S ROOM FOR MANY A MORE.

And if that doesn't spell doom, I don't know what does.

117 Posted by: Concealed Kerry or submit at July 26, 2011 10:27 AM (vXqv3)

What?  Last I heard, el JEFfe wasn't exactly stumping for "do nothing."  Did that change last night?  Did I read the wrong transcript?

118 What a lot of people are missing and the MFM (including Fox) is not saying is that we MUST get rid of the deficit and soon. The so-called default and the debt ceiling increase is more of a side show than anything else.

We are no longer selling T-Bills to "investors". Instead the major "investor" has been unloading them. That started a while back, Google it. That was the start of DOOM.

So where have we been getting the money to finance our continued huge deficit?  Who has been buying our T-Bills?  The treasury has been doing that. A number of economists have been screaming about that. Tax Cheat Timmy made up a catchy name for "Quantitative Easing". We have had two issues of T-Bills doing that; QE-I & QE-II.

A better name for this action is roll out the presses and print money so we can say hello Wiemar Republic (or Argentina). It is already a form of default.

Raising the debt ceiling will call for QE-III to "borrow" more money from ourselves. The Boner plan will call for QE-III, IV, V.......n⁺¹ down the road. We will be printing those $1B notes to buy a loaf of bread.

Of course by then the economy will have already reverted to a barter system. A bater system will not support a nation of 300M people and the 50% of those 300M people who live off the other half will not be supported at all under a barter system.

That is how the collapse will come. When people get hungry they no longer care about order of any kind and the "reign of terror" begins. Calls to feed them cake when there is no cake will not help.

Hopefully if that happens Marie Obamanette will still be in office.

I tried to be very very careful in wording that.

119 hey, who's the guy who went short big time on the dollar?  Don't you have to disclose identity on a transaction this size?

120 Karl Denninger has been covering The Doom!!! at The Market Ticker for several years, now.

 I also remember that when I was warning this board about all of this ... over the last seven or eight years...well, let's just say that the general consensus appeared to be that It Just Can't Happen in America!!! How's that 'NIMBY' thingy werkin' out for ya?

Both parties are talking about a reduction in future deficit spending, not a return to budgets from say, 2007, let alone 2001 or earlier. In order to have a chance at stopping this run-away freight train, federal spending needs to be cut by at least 700 billion per year, and then cut again, every year thereafter.

 The Democrat proposal is ridiculous on its face. The Republican proposal is deceptive in that it only promises a 200 billion dollar cut in borrowing money to spend on things we don't need and can't afford. iow, instead of borrowing 1.2 trillion per year, we'll only borrow 1 trillion.

 The arguments we're hearing from both parties are insane. We need to slash spending and stop borrowing, instead of arguing over how much we're going to borrow next year.

 

121 Don't you have to disclose identity on a transaction this size?

Not with derivatives, I don't think (this guy only bought futures, not the securities themselves).

122 hey, who's the guy who went short big time on the dollar?  Don't you have to disclose identity on a transaction this size?

Posted by: glowing blue meat

 

Don't be silly. If you are a businessman and you bring in the day's receipts and they are over 10k, that must be reported. if you bet against the US governemnt getting its head out of the up and locked position, you are a thing of Mists and Shadows.

123 Posted by: Tonestaple at July 26, 2011 10:35 AM (b39lA)

Pretty sure he meant a Johnny Cash tune.

124 Pretty sure he meant a Johnny Cash tune.

Yep - Folsom Prison Blues.

125 130--don't tear a cuff patting yourself on the back there, swami.

126 I'm going to try this at the start of the topic rather than at the end.

Is Monty correct that the current course leads no where but to DOOM? Yes he is. What I would like to do is point out the real reason we are headed over a cliff.

Monty in an excellent post pointed out the difference between insolvent and illiquid. What I would like to do is point out the difference between deficit and debt.

To do that I am first going to begin with the traditional gold standard (hard money) economic system. What I say here applies to a hard money economic system. ( I am discussing federal government only at this time.)

Deficit is the difference between  government cash in flow (taxes and borrowing) and government expenditures (spending) when the spending exceeds the cash in flow. Surplus is the same difference when government spending is smaller than cash in flow. Assets are cash or real property owned by the government. Liabilities are what is owed to entities outside of the government.

Debt is money which has been borrowed by the government from external entities with the promise of paying back those monies with interest. An example of government debt is U.S. Savings Bonds. Please note that debt and deficit do not mean the same thing. It is entirely possible for the government to have a surplus in its budget and still incur new debt. ( Just as it is possible for you to live with in your means but acquire new debt by buying a house or using a credit card.)

In a hard money system Government spending is limited by the amount of physical gold in the system. Because of the law of conservation of mass the amount of gold is fixed. (Yes I know that new gold can be mined and that old gold can be misplaced. These are both small amounts on an annual basis and can be ignored for this discussion.)

In a hard money system a government deficit can only be made up by decreasing its assets or by increasing its liabilities ( by creating new debt by borrowing).

Deficit example: Taxes 1 billion dollars Bonds sold to public 100 million dollars Expenditures 2 billion dollars. In the Deficit example the cash inflow to the government is 1.1 billion dollars with the spending at 2 billion dollars the government's assets are decreased by 800 million dollars and the governments liabilities are increased by 100 million dollars plus interest.

Surplus example: Taxes 1 billion dollars. Bonds sold to public 100 million dollars. Expenditures 1 billion dollars. Surplus example the cash inflow to the government is 1.1 billion dollars,  expenditures 1 billion dollars, assets increase by 100 million dollars - liabilities increase by 100 million dollars plus interest.

Note that if the government is allowed to borrow money over time despite having a balanced budget or running a small surplus it is possible for the government to become insolvent because of the interest term in the liabilities.

We can see that allowing the government borrow money in a hard money system is very bad - it can and will lead to insolvency over time because of interest.

This is a long post so I will break it up into two parts.

127 126

No time to read today's Doom nor the comments, but I do want to point out, in case no one else has, the chorus to the gospel song I assume Monty is referring to with his title:

Get on board, little chi'ren, ("children" to those of you not fortunate enough to be southerners)

Get on board, little chi'ren,

Get on board, little chi'ren

THERE'S ROOM FOR MANY A MORE.

And if that doesn't spell doom, I don't know what does.

Posted by: Tonestaple at July 26, 2011 10:35 AM (b39lA)

I think he was quoting Johnny Cash.

128

Ack, Methos beat me to it. 

129 127 no no no not saying jug ears was stumpim for do nothin.
 I'm sayin HE does nothin, no plan, no work, no proposals just reads speeches and parties! He votes present he has always done nothin ask the real profs where he was a substitute teacher.

130 Posted by: Tonestaple at July 26, 2011 10:35 AM (b39lA)

You're thinking of the old tune "People Get Ready" (which has been covered zillions of times, most popularly by Rod Stewart and Jeff Beck). I was thinking of Cash's "Folsom Prison Blues", but "People Get Ready" is indeed a lovely old song.

131 Text of new BBA
(Separate from Boehner's bill)

132 Washington is at a decision point: They can do what's right, or they can do what's popular. The problem is that Washington is filled with people who's entire life has been spent doing what is popular and being richly rewarded for it. What are the chances they will do what's right? Of course we're the ones who sent them to Washington to make the hard decisions for us, and then punished the ones who didn't make the popular choices, so whose fault is this, really? I think we should go back to only people who own land voting, people with the experience to know what a right choice looks like.

133

BEIJING — GE Healthcare, a maker of diagnostic imaging equipment, said Monday it is moving its X-ray global headquarters from the United States to Beijing as it seeks to tap China and other emerging markets.

The General Electric Co. unit is the first business of the industrial and financial giant to relocate to China.

Anne LeGrand, vice president and general manager of GE Healthcare Global X-Ray, told a news conference that the decision to move from Waukesha, Wisconsin, was made two years ago and will be completed by early fall.

134 Headline at zerohedge
ISDA, Which Refuses To Declare Greece In Default, Has Given The US A 3 Day Grace Period Before A CDS TriggerI guess that's bad...

135 BEIJING — GE Healthcare, a maker of diagnostic imaging equipment, said Monday it is moving its X-ray global headquarters from the United States to Beijing as it seeks to tap China and other emerging markets.

That's "I hear the regulations coming, its coming around the bend. And I haven't paid any taxes since I don't know when. I gettin out of Bama prison, getting out while I can. Like a penned in dog I have done it, I've shit all over my yard, now I'm leaving it all to you so clean it up, so ya'll get to work and do it right hard"

136 California is NOT doomed! Why, we even have enough money to pass our own little Dream Act. The illegal kiddies are lined up already to get their free education passes!!!

http://tinyurl.com/3bp8gy5

137 To clarify-that's three days from any missed payment (which mostly shouldn't happen), not from today.

138 Having discussed a hard money system in my previous post we are going to now discuss a fiat money system.

In a fiat money system the government declares something to be money. In the U.S. it is dollar bills (Paper money - or increasingly electronic money) Here are the key differences between a hard money system and a fiat money system: in a hard money system the amount of money in the economy or owned by the government is a fixed amount which varies little from year to year. In a fiat money system the amount of money in the system is unlimited and can grow and shrink at the whim of the government.

In a hard money system cash (gold) owned by the government is an asset, in a fiat system cash owned by the government (paper or electronic dollars) is NOT an asset. This occurs because the government freely may create or destroy dollars in its possession without changing permanently the amount of money available for the economy. This is why the government burns what ever cash is paid in taxes or what ever money comes in from borrowing- it is not destroying an asset to do so.

Taxes in a hard money system are a primary source of funds for the government. In a fiat money system taxes serve an entirely different purpose: taxes under a fiat money system are used to convince the public of the value of the money. "The government will throw me in jail if I don't pay my taxes - they will only accept paper money or a checks and electronic money transfers which represent paper money, therefore paper money must have value to them and so it is valuable to me"

Taxes in a fiat money system also serve to hold under control the amount of money in circulation in the economy - thus controlling inflation. If new paper money were to be constantly pumped into the economy by the government without having taxes take money out of the system the value of each dollar in circulation would decrease (inflation).

In a fiat money system the government does not have to borrow money to make up a deficit since fiat money in its possession is not an asset. Borrowed money in a fiat system serves the same purpose as taxes - it controls the amount of paper money in circulation. However borrowed money in a fiat system is still paid back with interest. Thus borrowed money is only temporarily removed from circulation in a fiat system and eventually - when paid back - causes there to be even more money in circulation than there was when it was borrowed. As in the case of a hard money system government debt leads to eventual financial ruin of the country; though for different reasons.

In a hard money system because the amount of money is 'fixed' as the economy grows each dollar becomes more valuable (deflation - more goods and services being chased by a fixed amount of currency.) Prices come down as do wages. Deflation is very bad for anyone who borrows money - he still owes the same number of dollars (plus interest) but each of those dollars are increasingly valuable. The value returned by a debtor to a lender is far greater than the value borrowed. This is true whether a debtor is a government or an individual. Economic growth is very slow in a hard money system because people realize they can't afford to borrow.

In a fiat system currency can be inflated by the government running a deficit which allows more dollars into the economy - or deflated by the government running a surplus. Note that there is a difference between economic growth and inflation. In cases of economic growth a fiat money government can run a deficit which causes the money increase to equal the growth in the economy (for example 10% more money chasing 10% more goods and services - value of the dollar remains constant) without causing inflation ( more increase in money supply than the increase in goods and services).

Technically a fiat money government can never become insolvent - what can happen is that the value of the fiat money can be reduced to near zero - as happened to the Continental Congress during the revolutionary war or to the Wiemar Republic in Germany after World War I.

In either the hard money case or the fiat money case government debt leads directly to ruin.

In the case of fiat money the deficit and the debt are entirely unrelated. With a growing economy a properly sized deficit allows the money to remain of constant value.

In other words Monty the cause of the DOOM is the debt not the frigging deficit.

139

Posted by: An Observation at July 26, 2011 11:26 AM (ylhEn)

 

Thanks for taking the time to lay that out.  I would say that a too-large deficit can still be a component of the problem, though, as that can introduce too much money or suck up too much of the resources needed by the private economy.  Whether it is doing so at this time is debateable. 

I think it should also be very specifically noted that this explanation of the fiat system is NOT an endorsement of rampant spending nor is it an attempt to declare the debt or deficit of null effect.  But the way the system works does need to be understood so that appropriate policy can be made that is applicable to a fiat system - the solutions suitable for a hard money system are not identical.

140 We all agree the ugly is coming, we need a financial equivelent of a spelt wheat thread on arfcom.

141 I think I must be missing something here.

Interest rates are a function of risk that one will get their money back, risk that it will not be paid back in inflated currency and supply and demand of lendable money.

So I go look at the interest rates on US Treasury bills and bonds. They are effectively 0% (0.03% the other day). Since inflation is at least a couple percent, this means that US Debt buyers are paying the US govt to hold their money for them. They will get back less than they have put in. Even for 10 year bonds it is only 4.5% or so.

So what gives? Sounds like buyers don't believe that the US will default. Sounds like buyers don't believe that inflation will ravage their bonds.

So what am I missing?

John Henry

142 "Someone dropped a bomb on the bond market Thursday – a $1 billion Armageddon trade betting the United States will lose its AAA credit rating."
Link

143 So what gives? Sounds like buyers don't believe that the US will default. Sounds like buyers don't believe that inflation will ravage their bonds.

We suck, but everyone else sucks worse.

In a country of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.

This does not mean that we can just sit back and let the debt slide -- there's a reason why gold is blowing out right now. Investors may be using US debt as a port in the storm right now, but that port is looking pretty shaky. They're anxious to find a better one, and will bolt at the first opportunity.

144 So what am I missing?

John Henry

You are missing how the government markets T-Bills. They auction them off which ordinarily would allow the free market to determine the yield based on what the buyers felt like.

However, the government has been unable to do that without the interest rates going sky high. Nobody is buying at those "0" rates. In fact they are selling. The government can't afford to allow the rates to climb because things would then spiral out of control quickly.

So what they have been doing is buying the T-Bills themselves. IOW the left hand issues the bill, the right hand buys it with "electronic money". That, in essence, is what Quantitative Easing is. We are printing money and borrowing it.

That is why the price of commodities is going up rapidly. The only thing currently holding this in check is the debt ceiling because we may be borrowing the money from ourselves, but we are still borrowing it.

145 From the Dalrymple piece:  Deficits are like smoking: difficult to give up.

Don't I know it!

146 Posted by: Vic at July 26, 2011 12:00 PM (M9Ie6)

I remember when someone on CNBC warned that they were going to mentize the debt and everyone thought he was absolutely batshit crazy.

147 Is that two trades betting against "US"?   The one monty noted in his piece and the one I found? 

148 I was proud of President Obama last night....So proud that he put down that little ant Boner. Boner was so rude, disrespectfull, obnoxious and lied about everything our president said. so mean and selfish on Boner's part.... Makes me sick that Boner only cares about the country and only the 2012 election

149 "hey, who's the guy who went short big time on the dollar?  Don't you have to disclose identity on a transaction this size?"

Law's are for the little people.

150 I don't think the idea of Soros shorting the dollar is tinfoil hatty at all. He is the "Wizard of Oz". He has already sent his flying monkeys at MoveOn to threaten the Democrats to stay on their progressive kill America course. They are on every progressive blog with their lame talking points about the sky falling on all the middle class if the debt ceiling is not raised. Soros would be the obvious choice.

151 "I don't think the idea of Soros shorting the dollar is tinfoil hatty at all."

That's true, but you don't have to be a genius to see that the dollar is in trouble.

152 Certainly not, but I don't think this is about the dollar. This is all political. Soros has enough money to buy a country. Why would he care about a billion? Furthermore, why was Paulson mentioned and not Soros in the article. I mean if you are "speculating" list them all.

153 My guess as to the $1 Billion trader? Either Soros or the Saudis. Both want to see the U.S. tank and both would be privy to insider information through the Obama White House.

154 True, but the Saudis could have already ruined us with their oil prices ages ago. Why would they want to do it this way?

155 Though the Saudis are one element in the perfect storm that is about to hit us and they are slowly creeping in with a slow-moving tsunami.

156

10 Since I'm too pissed off to comment about the clusterfuck in D.C., and Monty did mention CA (my former state), note that Jerry "Governor Moonbeam" Brown signed a bill yesterday giving state-paid financial assistance to illegal-alien college students. It's the same "DREAM Act" the shithead Dems want to pass nationally.

I can't begin to describe how much this pisses me off. We're trying to figure out how to pay to send our kids - American citizens, the children of people who've paid Federal and CA state taxes for years - to college, and here we're paying for every wetback to climb out of the Rio Grande, towel off, and go to college here at my expense when I can't afford to send my own kids.

157 It all smells like shit to me, so help me allah.

158

Posted by: An Observation at July 26, 2011 11:26 AM (ylhEn)

Thanks for the excellent post. It was appreciated.

159 My guess as to the $1 Billion trader? Either Soros or the Saudis. Both want to see the U.S. tank and both would be privy to insider information through the Obama White House.

Posted by: An Observation at July 26, 2011 12:38 PM (ylhEn)

The Saudis have 40% unemployment and inflation problems.  The last thing they want to do is upset their best buyer.

160 That is a spooky looking cat.

It's also what all cats would look like if their fur were removed.

161 Took me time to read all the comments, but I really enjoyed the article. It proved to be Very helpful to me and I am sure to all the commenters here! ItÂ’s always nice when you can not only be informed, but also entertained!