May 01, 2011
— CAC Cannot stress enough that the entire world can change in 18 months so take these for what they are- laughably early projections of the Senate and Presidential race. Images are large, so read on.
The Senate map is coded ONLY by scale of GOP pickup---DEM retain. Our seats (all 10 of them) are pretty damn safe- Heller replacing Ensign makes that seat from leaning GOP hold to likely GOP hold, Brown and Collins are pretty secure in RINOLAND and aren't going to face credible primary challengers (I know, TheWomanThatShallNotBeNamed, blah blah blah, bite me).
On the Presidential side of things, remember Maine is one of the states that can split up its electoral votes. People tend to forget this when making projections. One of its two congressional districts is far, far more Democratic than the other, so even if the state were to go GOP as a whole it is likely 1 electoral vote goes for President Obama, barring a landslide loss of 389. Nebraska has the same thing, but at least this time, the Obamaha congressional district isn't going to flirt blue again, so it is shaded in solidly Republican here. Of the 2008 competitive states, Montana, North Dakota and Georgia were shaky then but solidly red here. Missouri barely went for McCain but is now very likely Republican heading into 2012. All other states besides Missouri shaded in brighter reds are pickups, in case there is any confusion.
Oh, and go away.
Posted by: CAC at
12:33 PM
| Comments (107)
Post contains 266 words, total size 2 kb.
Posted by: USA at May 01, 2011 12:42 PM (YZISw)
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at May 01, 2011 12:49 PM (d0Tfm)
Posted by: rockmom at May 01, 2011 12:49 PM (Y01Pi)
Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at May 01, 2011 12:50 PM (gh4vd)
Posted by: Christine O'Donnell at May 01, 2011 12:52 PM (gh4vd)
Posted by: blaster at May 01, 2011 12:53 PM (Fw2Gg)
Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at May 01, 2011 12:55 PM (mHQ7T)
Posted by: Personification of Evil, Harry Reid at May 01, 2011 12:55 PM (JEVge)
Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at May 01, 2011 12:56 PM (mHQ7T)
Lib in laws just came over from West Virginia and all they talked about were the sticky notes that they saw in gas stations on their trip over. Not on the pumps so much, but in the chip isle, pop coolers, etc.
They actually said, 'Well, it makes a person think, doesn't it?'
These people were huge Obama supporters. They grew up mining coal.
To hear them say this was shocking.
To all of those that have been putting post-it notes up thank you.
To all of those that haven't, why haven't you? I include myself in this group, so I just went out and bought myself a big ole pack of them.
I didn't know if they would actually work, but if they are getting my very liberal in-laws thinking about it, then they are miracle workers
Posted by: momma at May 01, 2011 12:57 PM (penCf)
Senate: GOP picks up MT, NE, MO, ND, and VA. Dems pick up nothing, unless Olympia Snowe is successfully primaried in ME, in which case Dems take the ME Senate seat. GOP at 51-52 seats in the new Senate.
President: Daniels/Ryan defeat Obama/Biden by taking all Bush 2004 states except for NM, and by adding WI, PA, and NH to the red column. GOP wins with 321 electoral votes.
Posted by: Dave at May 01, 2011 01:03 PM (xo4k6)
As an Ohioan, I am very curious as to why everyone seems to assume Sherrod Brown will be re-elected to the Senate. He is one of the most liberal Senators, and unlike Howard Metzenbaum years ago does not seem to be coming up for re-election in a lucky year for Democrats.
Posted by: NCC at May 01, 2011 01:06 PM (lDsmT)
Not so sure there. The gubernatorial election there in 2010 should make everyone stand up and take notice. I also think Michigan is firmly in play.
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at May 01, 2011 01:08 PM (7utQ2)
Momma, what's the story on sticky notes?
Posted by: Me = stump at May 01, 2011 05:01 PM (Hic+o)
People are putting note on post its and then posting them at gas stations, cereal isles, loaves of bread etc.
If you click the link (ADDED BONUS) you will see Crowder's commercial for Obama President of Brazil.
Posted by: momma at May 01, 2011 01:10 PM (penCf)
http://stopshouting.blogspot.com/
The owner's story of how it came to be is well worth reading itself. I've added the link to my "read frequently" list.
Posted by: ya2daup, an iPhone iMpeded iPosting at May 01, 2011 05:09 PM (u/ErH)
Posted by: momma at May 01, 2011 01:12 PM (penCf)
Posted by: ALLCAPS joncelli at May 01, 2011 01:16 PM (Nvw83)
Posted by: FU52 at May 01, 2011 01:20 PM (NZu+i)
O'Really asks Beck: Who? Who is John Galt?
Bill OÂ’Reilly DoesnÂ’t Know Who John Galt Is
Posted by: momma at May 01, 2011 01:21 PM (penCf)
Posted by: TexasJew at May 01, 2011 01:23 PM (uR5Zf)
Posted by: CAC, who likes his Caps Lock Too at May 01, 2011 01:24 PM (JEVge)
highlight it,
right mouse click it
opens a menu and asks if you want to open link in a new tab or window.
Posted by: Beto at May 01, 2011 01:28 PM (H+LJc)
Sunday Reflection: When Jimmy Carter Is your best-case scenario, you're in trouble
First, Obama doesn't rely on rational description to persuade the American people, but rather on his -- now seemingly shrunken -- oratorical skills, without regard to substance.
And, second, rather than pushing a program he thought was rational over the objections of the Democratic congressional leadership, Obama virtually outsourced the stimulus and health care legislation to Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi, producing a misshapen mass of special-interest giveways that did little for the economy or for health, and that created massive public indignation. Obama here was like Carter without the engineer's rationality, or force of personality.
Obama is worse in another way. Though Carter had a mean streak, he was not prone to divide and name-call in the way that Obama has done. From his remarks about bitter clingers to his administration's increasing willingness to call any criticism racist, Obama's administration has been far more divisive than Carter's.
Likewise, the Obama administration has shown a
thuggish streak, involving everything from "jokes" about Internal
Revenue Service audits to the recent National Labor Relations Board
attack on Boeing's factory move from a unionized plant in Washington
state to a plant in South Carolina where workers had voted to go
nonunion, that was not so pronounced under Carter. Call it the
difference between Plains and Chicago.
But while all that spending didn't stabilize unemployment as promised, it did destabilize America's credit rating. As bad as things were under Carter, the United States wasn't at risk of a credit downgrade, as it is now.
Plus, inflation is beginning to ramp up, as gas and grocery prices skyrocket. Some worry that the inflation rates of the Carter era will look mild by comparison with what's coming down the pike.
And that's the lesson: Up to now, comparisons
with Carter were a tool of Obama's critics. From now on, they're likely
to be a tool of his defenders. Because as bad as Carter was, Obama is
shaping up to be worse. Much worse.
Posted by: momma at May 01, 2011 01:28 PM (penCf)
Only twice have the Republicans had 60 or more seats in the Senate:
41st 1869–1871 R61-D11
60th 1907–1909 R61-D29
So, going to go out on a limb and say that'll never happen, barring a civil war or the resurrection of Teddy Roosevelt.
BTW -- looks like the Dems had 60 or more seats 12 times. Eeek!
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at May 01, 2011 01:29 PM (YuWcy)
Posted by: ALLCAPS joncelli at May 01, 2011 01:31 PM (Nvw83)
Those visual deformities are a crime against nature.
Did you go out of your way to find the worst color combinations and typeface to make it as visually revolting as possible or is it your particular talent?
Posted by: Jeremiah God Damn America Wright at May 01, 2011 01:32 PM (rVYV5)
Also, unless something really insane happens in the next 18 months, I think NH will be able to move from very pale pink to a much darker pink. I hesitate because a lot of lib-dems in the state were taken by surprise by the surge of republican/libertarian/conservative voters in the 2010 election, and they're going to come out in droves for 2012 to try and stem the flood. HOWEVER, those same 'pub/libertarian/conservative voters from 2010 are still going to be there come '12, and we are going to be even MORE pissed.
Posted by: MWR at May 01, 2011 01:36 PM (CA2NO)
Posted by: FlaviusJulius at May 01, 2011 01:37 PM (qIHlG)
Posted by: CoolCzech at May 01, 2011 01:40 PM (kUaEF)
Posted by: momma at May 01, 2011 05:10 PM (penCf)
Sorry momma, but next time please have a disclaimer for that site - it is completely unhinged (read the comment section, dear Lord, they are justifying the high gas prices with the usual "well, in Europe it's more expensive, so quit your whining!" gambit).
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at May 01, 2011 01:41 PM (c0A3e)
Illinois - Corruption, coming to a city or town near you if the dems get their way.
Posted by: Lemon Kitten at May 01, 2011 01:42 PM (0fzsA)
Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at May 01, 2011 01:46 PM (gh4vd)
Meggie Mac, Michael Moore and Jack Stuef hardest hit.
Posted by: Wonkish Rogue at May 01, 2011 01:46 PM (LTXKt)
I tried to listen but only made it 3 jokes into the speech because it was funny, just crude.
I know Ace posted about this yesterday, but I hadn't thought to compare BO's speech to Bush's like the Prof at Legal Insurrection did.
Posted by: momma at May 01, 2011 01:50 PM (penCf)
Nah, not veto-proof. There are still the Maine Sisters and "reach across the aisle"Maverick, and Scott Brown. True, several more R's now would be better, but someone or 2 or 3 would defect and not override a veto.
Posted by: someone at May 01, 2011 01:51 PM (bqjJT)
Don't give up hope just yet. Ace posted this just the other day IIRC.
http://tinyurl.com/3h4rotz
Posted by: Wonkish Rogue at May 01, 2011 01:53 PM (LTXKt)
Posted by: Flapjackmaka at May 01, 2011 01:55 PM (u8JAM)
Posted by: Lemon Kitten at May 01, 2011 01:55 PM (0fzsA)
Sorry momma, but next time please
have a disclaimer for that site - it is completely unhinged (read the
comment section, dear Lord, they are justifying the high gas prices with
the usual "well, in Europe it's more expensive, so quit your whining!"
gambit).
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at May 01, 2011 05:41 PM (c0A3e)
Didn't read the comments. Sorry. I just knew that article had more examples then any other article I read.
Plus, I enjoy the Crowder video.
Posted by: momma at May 01, 2011 01:56 PM (penCf)
Posted by: FlaviusJulius at May 01, 2011 02:00 PM (qIHlG)
http://tinyurl.com/3h4rotz
Not buying it. We really thought we were going to make in PA in '08 right up to Election Day, and in the end Obama didn't just win there, he won by a ridiculous margin. His margin will probably be cut in half or more next time but I'm still writing the state off.
Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at May 01, 2011 02:00 PM (FYCiJ)
I wouldn't give up hope and if I was running the campaign for the 2012 Republican Nominee, I wouldn't completely pull out of PA, but I wouldn't count on PA's EV votes either, for all the reasons that were listed. For the past 20 years, this state has gone Dem for the Presidential elections.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at May 01, 2011 02:01 PM (c0A3e)
Update: ‘sticky note campaign’ gains momentum
PLUS:
Rubio says he won't be on the 2012 Presidential ballot:
Posted by: momma at May 01, 2011 02:04 PM (penCf)
Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at May 01, 2011 06:00 PM (FYCiJ)
Are you PAer? I am. I share your skepticism. I live in Montco county. pretty liberal.
For a conservative to win, they will have to campaign hard in the pittsburgh suburbs, pittsburgh itself (Pittsburgh is actually not too liberal. Toomey lost Allegehny by only 10 points.) All of Western PA, the lehigh valley and the philly suburbs. DO not campaign in Philly att all. Waste of time. Not too much T shaped PA beacuse that is a given for us. Philadelphians can be stupid we have to cheer for the phillies to get to the world series by election day. THose barbarians will be too coked up and drunk to vote. The philly subs are pissed too so that is good.
Posted by: Flapjackmaka at May 01, 2011 02:05 PM (u8JAM)
I wouldn't give up hope and if I was running the campaign for the 2012 Republican Nominee, I wouldn't completely pull out of PA, but I wouldn't count on PA's EV votes either, for all the reasons that were listed. For the past 20 years, this state has gone Dem for the Presidential elections.
I'm not exactly Mr.Sunshine but I think we have at least a 50/50 shot at PA. With the economy limping along and gas prices (not to mention inflation) on people's minds it was interesting to note that foreign policy (Afganistan, Libya) seems to also be a large factor in Price Humperdink's disapproval (at least according to that particular article). Romney seems to be the frontrunner at the moment as well and I think he could do well in PA. Humperdink will be pouring in the cash of course come campaign time.
Posted by: Wonkish Rogue at May 01, 2011 02:10 PM (LTXKt)
BO golfing today
and
Alabama Church holds services on slab where Church USED to stand (destroyed by tornado)
and
Nine-year old Eric Chaney collects toys for a family friend, who survived but was left orphaned after his home was destroyed by a tornado
Posted by: momma at May 01, 2011 02:10 PM (penCf)
As a lifelong Ohioan, I, too, want to question the assumption that Sherrod Brown is a shoo-in. Portman rode to victory here last November by 57-39 margin, defeating the lieutenant governor to the then-beaten "Terrible" Ted Strickland.
Sherrod is a menace and must be defeated.
Posted by: knob at May 01, 2011 02:14 PM (qKPU8)
Posted by: chemjeff at May 01, 2011 02:17 PM (QAJGa)
What THE FUCK DO THEY MEAN?
Maps need legends, not some kinda shitty, half-assed explanation in the narrative.
/from a guy who used to make a living making maps.
Posted by: Ed Anger at May 01, 2011 02:19 PM (7+pP9)
Posted by: chemjeff at May 01, 2011 02:21 PM (QAJGa)
Posted by: Museisluse at May 01, 2011 02:23 PM (xrmna)
Posted by: chemjeff at May 01, 2011 06:17 PM (QAJGa)
I only know that my mother is one of those centerist/independents. When I was a kid she voted democratic. Now she's more often a republican vote (and she hates Obama). However, she's voted for Nelson in his past campaigns. She swears she will not vote for him again due to the Obamacare/Cornhusker kickback shenanigans - and she hasn't forgotten.
Posted by: someone at May 01, 2011 02:25 PM (bqjJT)
Posted by: jeannebodine at May 01, 2011 02:25 PM (nvlAW)
/from a guy who used to make a living making maps.
Posted by: Ed Anger at May 01, 2011 06:19 PM (7+pP9)
Thanks, Ed. I thought it was very poorly done, too, but didn't want to say anything, lest it be perfectly obvious to everyone else and I reveal myself as a dummy.
Posted by: Peaches at May 01, 2011 02:26 PM (ixG3W)
Posted by: I'mWithStupid at May 01, 2011 02:27 PM (xhNbo)
They are unhappy because they are comparing Obama to their ideal of a socialist progressive, and he is letting them down because he hasn't gone full-on Marxist.
But, come November 2012, they will be comparing Obama to the Republican candidate - who, by then, will be characterized as the spawn of Satan and the reincarnation of Hitler. They will vote for him, of course.
Posted by: chemjeff at May 01, 2011 02:29 PM (QAJGa)
I hope you are right. But Nelson is a wily guy, he has to be for surviving in a very red state overall.
Posted by: chemjeff at May 01, 2011 02:32 PM (QAJGa)
Posted by: chemjeff at May 01, 2011 02:33 PM (QAJGa)
Tell me about it. How does a tax bill of about $12,500 on a house I'd be lucky to get $175,000 sound? That is, if I could sell it. Which I can't. And my polling spot was a lot more tense last November, mainly cause I was there.
.
Posted by: jeannebodine at May 01, 2011 02:35 PM (nvlAW)
Posted by: momma at May 01, 2011 02:37 PM (penCf)
Doesn't he have a little tarnish on him with respect to that as well with Obamacare?
Posted by: someone at May 01, 2011 02:39 PM (bqjJT)
Posted by: Truck Monkey at May 01, 2011 02:40 PM (yQWNf)
I thought after the last election that maybe congress would get more serious but the dems are demonizing the ryan plan and the repubs are too wimpy to support it, meanwhile inflation is rearing its ugly head and these idiots are fighting over cowboy poetry. Its ridiculous and I can't really see a majority repub senate doing the right things either. Its just a parlor game for them.
Posted by: Guy Fawkes at May 01, 2011 02:48 PM (IXLvN)
So, shouldn't we be doing all we can, under cover of sock, to encourage some full-on progtard to run as a third-party candidate and drain votes from Bammy? What ever happened to the "Draft Dean" movement, anyway? I was a big supporter of that.
Posted by: Peaches at May 01, 2011 02:50 PM (ixG3W)
Posted by: jeannebodine at May 01, 2011 03:00 PM (nvlAW)
As for colorful maps... I got nuthin'.
Posted by: Y-not at May 01, 2011 03:01 PM (pW2o8)
Posted by: Y-not hasn't read the comments yet at May 01, 2011 03:02 PM (pW2o8)
Posted by: Bob Saget with a can of cheezwiz at May 01, 2011 03:05 PM (NLWij)
Posted by: brain dead idiots at May 01, 2011 03:06 PM (XXFBW)
That reminds me. Today driving out to Park City was saw a bumper sticker that from afar read "O.B.A.M.A." We were shocked, so we caught up to the truck to read it better. Underneath read: "One Big Ass Mistake America."
heh
Posted by: Y-not hasn't read the comments yet at May 01, 2011 03:07 PM (pW2o8)
Speaking of schools. I was at a basketball tournament today at a brand new high school in Purcelville VA. One of the most beautiful facilities I have ever been in either public or private. Had to cost a fortune in tax dollars to build it.... and Loudon County VA still has a lot of money. Gee, I wonder why that is......
Posted by: Truck Monkey at May 01, 2011 03:07 PM (yQWNf)
Posted by: Y-not hasn't read the comments yet at May 01, 2011 07:02 PM (pW2o
Decrease your font size
Posted by: brain dead idiots at May 01, 2011 03:07 PM (XXFBW)
Posted by: jeannebodine at May 01, 2011 03:11 PM (nvlAW)
Don't believe the Pennsylvania Pessimism, folks. Pat Toomey won in PA because he won the key PHILLY suburbs. That's right, Toomey won the eastern counties of PA and that's why he won the election. He ran even with Bush in the central part of the state, but the places where he outperformed Bush's 2004 performance was in the Philly suburbs. That's PROOF that a conservative can win the Philly area, and Pennsylvania as a whole.
Posted by: Dave at May 01, 2011 03:11 PM (xo4k6)
and Loudon County VA still has a lot of money.
Why do you think? I'm guessing Loudon raked in the dough when all those people moved out there during the home buying wet dream.
Posted by: brain dead idiots at May 01, 2011 03:12 PM (XXFBW)
Posted by: Pollyanna Pennsylvanians at May 01, 2011 03:15 PM (nvlAW)
Posted by: Tattoo De Plane
Because nothing will motivate the Republican base more than having an actual member of the Obama administration at the top of their ticket.
Also, Huntsman resigned as Governor to become an ambassador -- and haven't we seen a host of posts here declaiming that a governor who resigns their office is a quitter who doesn't deserve nomination?
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at May 01, 2011 03:21 PM (YuWcy)
Well then maybe Nelson loses the Nebraska RTL endorsement. That would be welcome news.
Posted by: chemjeff at May 01, 2011 03:21 PM (QAJGa)
Posted by: chemjeff at May 01, 2011 03:25 PM (QAJGa)
The Dims can't win in Texas in a bad Republican year. 2012 is going to be a Democrat evisceration. PA might be a coin toss but if Democrats win in Texas in 2012 then Meghan McCain will also be considered for a Mensa membership.
Posted by: Wonkish Rogue at May 01, 2011 03:28 PM (LTXKt)
Posted by: Wonkish Rogue at May 01, 2011 03:31 PM (LTXKt)
It's simpler than that. Huntsman's dad is very popular, but he simply is not. Gary Herbert, our current governor who was Jr's Lt. Gov., has made it clear he's not going to endorse his former boss.
Posted by: Y-not at May 01, 2011 03:32 PM (pW2o8)
Sanders/Waters 2012!
http://tinyurl.com/cz4s26
Posted by: Wonkish Rogue at May 01, 2011 03:35 PM (LTXKt)
Posted by: Y-not at May 01, 2011 03:35 PM (pW2o8)
Posted by: Jean at May 01, 2011 03:55 PM (7P7Ij)
Posted by: venoous at May 01, 2011 04:04 PM (vG8jQ)
The good news is that from my perspective here is that voters are pissed at the Democrats just like everyone else, but we haven't had the satisfaction in dealing a blow to the Democrats like many states were able to in 2010. The fact that Obama's probably struggling to keep his approval rating in the 30s in this state helps a lot too. The "Ben Nelson= loyal Obama crony" messaging that will inevitably come from the Republican nominee will likely be lethal, ESPECIALLY in a presidential year.
Posted by: Luke at May 01, 2011 04:34 PM (sCjTu)
I live in Western PA, north of Pittsburgh. There are a lot of democrats in Pittsburgh, but I wouldn't call too many of them liberal. My company's main office is in Pittsburgh and I used to be worried about driving my car there with a Bush/Chaney bumper sticker. After Obama won though, I was down there and I said maybe now that he won, Michelle could pull that board out of her ass, and I was met with general agreement.
I can't argue with the idea that we need someone people can support, but by the time we have our primary the candidate has long been decided. I have more hope this time, but not because people are leaning republican, more about that shale business. People around here are starting to make money on it, and the liberals are already trying to stop it.
Posted by: PA Voter at May 01, 2011 05:47 PM (3AnLn)
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Posted by: Quilly Mammoth at May 01, 2011 12:41 PM (oYzxe)