June 10, 2011
— DrewM Slow day, so a little inside baseball/wild speculation stuff.
First, Mitt won the Ames Straw Poll last time and all he got for it was a T-shirt and an ass kicking by Huckabee in the actual caucus. Fool him once....
Mitt Romney's aides announced amid the Newt Gingrich campaign breakdown that he'll be skipping the Ames Straw Poll, a crucial test of organizational strength in Iowa and an event he spent a hefty $1 million on in 2007, only to lose the caucuses.Mitt Romney's aides have done a delicate dance managing expectations about how strongly he'll play in Iowa, and the argument against competing at Ames for him is his already-high name recognition and current poll standing in the state. To lose at Ames would raise doubts about his grassroots support and create a real perception problem.
Of course the thing Iowans care about even more than Ethanol is being sucked up to every 4 years and the state GOP chair doesn't sound too happy.
Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn issued the statement below following Governor Romney’s announcement that he will not participate in the the Ames Straw Poll.“I’ll leave it to the pundits and voters to assess the wisdom of skipping an event of tremendous importance to tens of thousands of Iowa Republicans and caucusgoers.”
“More than ever, Iowa Republicans are energized and motivated to utilize the Ames Straw Poll as a catalyst toward building a 99-county organization to deny President Obama a second term.”
Mind you, the Ames Straw Poll is so important 2 of the 5 winners have actually gone on to win the Iowa Caucus. McCain skipped it last time and he seemed to do ok in the end. Sure he didn't do well in the Caucus but let's be honest, 5 minutes after it's over, everyone forgets Iowa exists anyway for the next 3 years.
Skipping Ames does make you wonder if Mitt is really going to compete in Iowa or cede it to Pawlenty or even better from his standpoint, someone like Cain or Bachmann.
Allah asked yesterday why Mitt would stick to his Ehtanol pander if he's not going to compete in Iowa. I have a theory. In '08 Romney got killed for pandering and flipping. This year he's sticking by Ethanol, man made global warming and RomneyCare. It's almost as if he's flipped on being a flipper and now is the guy who is "standing by tough but unpopular positions". Consider it a meta-flip.
Poor Mitt, always fighting the last battle, just a split second out of rhythm with the beat of the moment. He's damned if he does, damned if he doesn't.
A related horse-race thought: Lots of folks are either excited or at least intrigued by the idea of Rick Perry entering the race. That's not surprising considering the searching for a White Knight that has gone unanswered by the likes of Mike Pence, Mitch Daniels and so far Paul Ryan, Chris Christie and Sarah Palin.
The thing is, beyond some hardcore conservative activist types, do a lot of GOP voters know anything about Perry? I gather from Texas folks he's not another W. but that will the initial impression for a lot of folks. He'll have to deal with that while making the case for himself.
So while there will be some initial excitement when/if Perry gets in the speculation will be how this impact Romney. Personally, I think it helps him. Mitt is at this early stage the front runner but he's not exactly loved. A lot of his strategy seems to rely on the idea of being the last man standing that most people can agree on. The greatest danger to him is that a clear "Not Mitt" emerges early that people can coalesce around. Perry, at least initially, will simply be another candidate to fracture the "not Mitt" base. From Romeny's perspective, the more the merrier for the longest time possible. He's got the name recognition and the money to slog it out from February to June across the country. Right now, no one else does.
Standard disclaimer: I'm not a Mitt Romeny guy, just thinking about what's going on.
Posted by: DrewM at
07:39 AM
| Comments (113)
Post contains 712 words, total size 4 kb.
Straw Polls are becoming more and more irrelevant. The Paulbots have ruined them and nobody gives them any credibility anymore.
As for Iowa itself, the first three primaries are now of low value for anything but advertising. This latest rule change is insane.
Posted by: Vic at June 10, 2011 07:43 AM (M9Ie6)
Posted by: Mitt Romney at June 10, 2011 07:46 AM (4Kl5M)
He ain't Bush.
And who cares about Iowa except Iowans?
Posted by: Marcus at June 10, 2011 07:46 AM (CHrmZ)
As far as Perry goes, he has his good points and his bad points. Holding office for 10+ years, including serving out Bush's last term and getting elected to three of his own, speak well for him. That's even with there being a primary challenge by Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson the last time around.
He's a little squishy on immigration, but you get that from time to time from most border state politicians. The HPV vaccine requirement for all girls of a certain age was a bit of a clusterf*ck, however.
As far as economics goes, he and the Texas legislature have presided over massive gains in jobs within Texas over his time as Governor. Also, he's likely pro-drilling because of what the oil industry means to Texas and the Gulf South in general, which means he won't be a cap-and-trade idiot like Romney.
There may be better candidates out there than Perry, but he's certainly a high-tier one if he gets into the race.
Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at June 10, 2011 07:47 AM (UvFnc)
Romney:
So in summary, out of the 6 major conservative issues he has flip-flopped on 3, total fail on 2, and at best mixed on one. Note that most of these updates are from the “On The Issues” site which tracks a lot of this shit down.
Gingrich
3 fail; 2 donÂ’t know/neutral; 1 good
So in summary I don't even know why he is in the race. He is toast because he has managed to piss off everyone and he can't even claim he is reaching out to independents (liberals). They will NEVER vote for him anyway.Pawlenty
1 Fail, 3 Good (low good), 2 Nuetral
His biggest hit is support for cap and trade and ethanol mandates. He is now trying to walk that back which is a huge “row to hoe” after so much support for so long. On the other issues his record has good and bad.
From my prospective because of the cap and tax he would not go on my short list but I could support him if it boils down to the end. He is NOT a huge RINO, but neither is he a huge conservative.
Posted by: Vic at June 10, 2011 07:47 AM (M9Ie6)
I don't mention this very often, but my grand-dad was an ear of corn.
Posted by: Mitt Romney, Mad Scientist in the Laboratory of Democracy at June 10, 2011 07:47 AM (Txl/u)
Posted by: Liberal homo and peace activist until January 2008 at June 10, 2011 07:48 AM (BMuzZ)
Really? Why? according to whom?
It's early in the race, and these organizations tend to grow organically and in response to external events. Forcing the issue in a straw poll (which doesn't mean much) won't do much, unless the organization is laughably amateurish and incapable.
And screw Politico. We shouldn't allow them to control the message.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at June 10, 2011 07:49 AM (LH6ir)
Posted by: ryukyu at June 10, 2011 07:50 AM (MOHSR)
I'm guessing he made the Ethonal statement with the general election in mind.
I said over a year ago that Romney was going to be our candidate and I'm sticking to that. I think he feels pretty sure he's got this bitch locked up and he's keeping an eye on the generals.
If Mitt is our candidate, he will need to vy hard in Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Nevada and Michigan.
I think those states are going to tip the election one way or another.
I am fairly confident that Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio and Florida will come back into the Republican fold in 2012.
Posted by: Ben at June 10, 2011 07:50 AM (wuv1c)
Posted by: SFGoth at June 10, 2011 07:51 AM (dZ756)
Posted by: Trimegistus at June 10, 2011 07:52 AM (/8h+I)
Pollutico just making shit up about Palin. Imagine that...
Hey, pre-cooked hobos in Philly per Ben! It may just be me, but it appears that the hobo population in Philly has doubled since Emperor Barky I ushed in HopenChange. they're even pitching tents on parks, right of ways and along the rail lines. good eatin, morons!
Posted by: glowing blue meat at June 10, 2011 07:52 AM (K/USr)
Things that make you go, 'Hmmmmm...'
Posted by: AoSHQ's *second* worst commenter, DarkLord© at June 10, 2011 07:52 AM (GBXon)
Is it true that investment opportunities are rapidly disappearing?
Answer: It's so bad that even the post about them has disappeared!
Posted by: Blue Hen at June 10, 2011 07:53 AM (Gzv/o)
Posted by: AoSHQ's *second* worst commenter, DarkLord© at June 10, 2011 07:53 AM (GBXon)
Sounds kinda like healthcare- doesn't it?
Mr Duality.
No thanks, we don't need another Republican nominee who spends his entire campaign with a stalking horse named "contradictions".
Posted by: Marcus at June 10, 2011 07:53 AM (CHrmZ)
What did you think that incident on Tuesday was?
Posted by: Anonymous psychic at June 10, 2011 07:53 AM (UvFnc)
Pollutico just making shit up about Palin. Imagine that...
Hey, pre-cooked hobos in Philly per Ben! It may just be me, but it appears that the hobo population in Philly has doubled since Emperor Barky I ushed in HopenChange. they're even pitching tents on parks, right of ways and along the rail lines. good eatin, morons!
all the sweating is helping clean the drugs out of their system too! Nothing is worse than eating hobo flesh and tweaking as a result .
Posted by: Ben at June 10, 2011 07:53 AM (wuv1c)
Posted by: t-bird at June 10, 2011 07:53 AM (FcR7P)
Posted by: Dave at June 10, 2011 07:54 AM (Xm1aB)
Things that make you go, 'Hmmmmm...'
Hell, you don't have to be me to think one of two things:
1. We're about to get hit
OR
2. Obama isn't taking things seriously
Posted by: Anonymous psychic at June 10, 2011 07:54 AM (UvFnc)
Things that make you go, 'Hmmmmm...'
Posted by: AoSHQ's *second* worst commenter, DarkLord©
I just couldn't take it....Everything was so flashy and crude. I'm very frail.
Posted by: Nutmeg state morons at June 10, 2011 07:54 AM (Gzv/o)
With perpetual wars and perpetual unemployment, the collapse of the dollar, the stupidity of smart diplomacy, deficits that are uncontrollable, debt that nobody can comprehend paying back...
perhaps even Mitt could beat Obama. Doubtful but...
The MFM sure want him, that's clear.
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at June 10, 2011 07:54 AM (jx2j9)
The MFM sure want him, that's clear.
Really? I haven't exactly noticed the MSM being on the Romney band wagon
I've seen puff pieces for Huntsman, but not Romney.
Posted by: Ben at June 10, 2011 07:55 AM (wuv1c)
Posted by: Romney's Stalking Horse at June 10, 2011 07:55 AM (CHrmZ)
Posted by: IreneFingIrene at June 10, 2011 07:56 AM (JKe0g)
Posted by: joncelli at June 10, 2011 07:56 AM (RD7QR)
With perpetual wars and perpetual unemployment, the collapse of the dollar, the stupidity of smart diplomacy, deficits that are uncontrollable, debt that nobody can comprehend paying back...
perhaps even Mitt could beat Obama. Doubtful but...
The MFM sure want him, that's clear.
The reason for that is clear, IMHO. Much like McCain, they see him as beatable as well as their best case scenario if a Republican actually wins.
They may think Palin is beatable but would be scared shitless of her winning because they know she'd come at a lot of liberal sacred cows with a vengeance.
Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at June 10, 2011 07:57 AM (UvFnc)
Posted by: Jane D'oh at June 10, 2011 07:57 AM (UOM48)
Posted by: White House's Top CT Guy at June 10, 2011 07:57 AM (FcR7P)
If you bite Romney, you get doused with hairspray and some congenial, girly insistence like- "please stop your assault on my person, cad".
Posted by: Marcus at June 10, 2011 07:59 AM (CHrmZ)
Posted by: JackStraw at June 10, 2011 07:59 AM (TMB3S)
Perry might hurt Mitt though too. One of the problems alot of the "Not Mitt" canidates have is the electability/experience/persona problem. Perry could really suck the wind out from under them. He's electable (unlike a lot of the Tier IIs), has experience (see Cain and Palin(!) (flame on but I personally have a problem with her quitting)) and he can give good speeches (Paw(*yawn*)lenty)
Posted by: Jollyroger at June 10, 2011 07:59 AM (NCw5u)
Posted by: Jane D'oh at June 10, 2011 11:57 AM (UOM4
It's lunchtime and suddenly- I am not hungry anymore.
Posted by: Marcus at June 10, 2011 08:00 AM (CHrmZ)
This year's contest will also feature a new twist: Iowans who will be of voting age by November 2012 will be able to participate, meaning that high school students are sure to be targeted by each campaign.
Watching a pack of middle-aged white shoe Republican candidates trying to connect with today's teen voters by being "hip" ought to be amusing...
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at June 10, 2011 08:00 AM (EeYDk)
Posted by: PR at June 10, 2011 08:02 AM (WvcAo)
Posted by: t-bird at June 10, 2011 08:03 AM (FcR7P)
As I was saying in Rick's living room the other day just before I climbed the tower....
Posted by: Charles Whitman at June 10, 2011 08:04 AM (GMG6W)
Posted by: PR at June 10, 2011 12:02 PM (WvcAo)
I think a fair number of us admit to being politically stupid back in the day. I wouldn't hold that against him now.
But, yeah, after 8 years of Reagan all you needed to do was look at the record and wonder why you were still a Dem.
Posted by: Sean Bannion at June 10, 2011 08:04 AM (sbV1u)
Posted by: Ben at June 10, 2011 11:55 AM (wuv1c)
Dated but relevant, imo. Coverage is coverage, puff pieces or not. If repub candidates are being talked about, odds are it will only be a couple and Mitt will likely be one. I donÂ’t follow MFM that much but I see Mitt a lot. Not trying to start an argument. Merely an observation.
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at June 10, 2011 08:04 AM (jx2j9)
Voting age of 17...such a good idea.
Posted by: t-bird
And I'm experiened at voter 'reach-out'. That demographic is special to me.
Posted by: Rep. Anthony's Weiner at June 10, 2011 08:05 AM (Gzv/o)
Romney: "I saved the Salt Lake City Olympics. :->"
Cain: "You mean the one that cost this country almost a couple billion $?
<-< >->"
Romney: "I also provided free health care to every resident of Massachusetts. Of course, it needs to be tweaked, but what have you done?"
Cain: "Other than work my way up from the bottom, make one company stronger, save another company, and all this while being twice as black as our current president?"
Romney: "I have great hair"
Posted by: SFGoth at June 10, 2011 08:06 AM (dZ756)
Posted by: Mary Clogginstein -- Proud Resident of Brattleboro, VT at June 10, 2011 08:06 AM (48wze)
Posted by: t-bird at June 10, 2011 08:06 AM (FcR7P)
Posted by: Lance McCormick at June 10, 2011 08:06 AM (bp264)
I believe Perry's record shows he was an old-time Democrat and a very aggressive fiscal conservative. When the party started changing he left to run for Agriculture Secretary.
Facts are friends.
And by the way, his record as governor is what folks will finds relevant and intriguing.
And Reagan was a Democrat. Not that Perry is Reagan.
Posted by: Marcus at June 10, 2011 08:07 AM (CHrmZ)
I could be a Perry guy, or a Pawlenty guy. I like what Pawlenty's saying. I like Perry's record.
I don't think Palin's in (and much as I'd love to see her sweeping out the Augean stables that are this administration, I don't think she could get elected.)
I don't see anyone else in the field who's ready, able, and acceptable on policy.
I was a Rudy guy last time but I don't think he can live down his half-effort.
I'd vote for Obama before I'd vote for Huntsman. Huntsman can go relieve himself in a rolling doughnut.
I like Cain but I'm not convinced he's ready to be President.
Posted by: JEM at June 10, 2011 08:08 AM (o+SC1)
Posted by: curious at June 10, 2011 08:08 AM (k1rwm)
Posted by: Mary Clogginstein -- Proud Resident of Brattleboro, VT
True, so true. We need someone who can emulate the plan that made VT the thriving, growing land of opportunity that it is today.
(Yes, I know that this is a sock, but it's a great one.)
Posted by: Rep. Anthony's Weiner at June 10, 2011 08:09 AM (Gzv/o)
Let that sink in.
Posted by: PR at June 10, 2011 12:02 PM (WvcAo)
Texas. We still have what I call "Dixiecrats."
In my county there wasn't a Republican canidate for Sherriff until the late '70s. He didn't win. Local elections are still won often by the Democrat. And thats ok, because they're really Republicans.
I know my dad is still a registered Dem even though he has never to my knowledge voted for a Dem at the national level.
Posted by: Jollyroger at June 10, 2011 08:09 AM (NCw5u)
Have you all talked about the Politico hit piece on S Palin, yet?
Beck mentioned it this morning.
They credited her as saying:
Palin’s bus tour had some of the hallmarks of a primal scream: “I built this constituency, not Bachmann, not anyone else.” Looking at it through her eyes, she has a point.
then they had to issue a correction (at the bottom of the 2nd page of the article):
CORRECTION: An editing error caused a false attribution in an earlier version of this column. A comment by the authors was transformed into a direct quote from Sarah Palin. She never said the words attributed to her. Those words were written by the authors.
Posted by: momma at June 10, 2011 08:09 AM (nWikJ)
In other words, Mitt in 2012 is what McCain was in 2008.
And if Romney gets the nomination, I'm staying home for the general election. He's not a real conservative.
(Kidding, of course.)
Posted by: FireHorse at June 10, 2011 08:09 AM (Rq1/g)
BTW - apparently the Florida GOP also has a straw poll in September, and Romney announced he's pulling out of that contest too.
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at June 10, 2011 08:09 AM (EeYDk)
There has been some speculation (at HotAir?) that Palin might stay out, and endorse Perry. If that happens, this is a whole different ballgame.
Posted by: Roger at June 10, 2011 08:10 AM (tAwhy)
I believe Perry's record shows he was an old-time Democrat and a very aggressive fiscal conservative. When the party started changing he left to run for Agriculture Secretary.
Facts are friends.
Apreed, he seems to have been in the same situation as many Louisiana politicians, who may have been Dems at the state level but would definitely be considered Republicans at the national level.
Remember, as red as Texas has been in Presidential elections for the past 30+ years, it took until the 2000s for a lot of the state-level pols to flip parties.
Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at June 10, 2011 08:10 AM (UvFnc)
I hated voting for McCain (I voted for Palin) and I think it will be much harder to vote for you.
Posted by: momma at June 10, 2011 08:10 AM (nWikJ)
Posted by: Lance McCormick at June 10, 2011 08:10 AM (bp264)
Posted by: t-bird at June 10, 2011 08:11 AM (FcR7P)
Posted by: Xander Crews at June 10, 2011 08:12 AM (/eFdn)
"Campaign Headquarters" for Newt is going to be run from a hotmail account in a Starbucks.
Dammit, stop stealing my campaign strategy! I've staked out the Starbucks at the Baton Rouge midtown Barnes And Noble for the past 15 years for this run!
Posted by: Buddy Roemer at June 10, 2011 08:13 AM (UvFnc)
My hubby is not into politics, but he can't wait for Perry to inter the race
He is on many boat, fishing, hunting, fire arms message boards and even those are filled with 'Perry, please run' threads.
So, yes, even those they aren't has into politics as we are, know who Perry is, and want him to run.
Posted by: momma at June 10, 2011 08:13 AM (nWikJ)
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at June 10, 2011 08:13 AM (jx2j9)
Posted by: The MFM at June 10, 2011 08:14 AM (FcR7P)
Posted by: SFGoth at June 10, 2011 08:14 AM (dZ756)
Posted by: SurferDoc at June 10, 2011 08:14 AM (STdkO)
Then I will immediately jump of a bridge.
Because voting twice in a lifetime for unqualified Republican candidates, in an effort to hopelessly beat the opposition is enough.
Posted by: Marcus at June 10, 2011 08:15 AM (CHrmZ)
Posted by: CoolCzech at June 10, 2011 08:16 AM (kUaEF)
Then I will immediately jump of a bridge.
Because voting twice in a lifetime for unqualified Republican candidates, in an effort to hopelessly beat the opposition is enough.
Posted by: Marcus
I sense an enthusiasm gap.
Posted by: The Moreacle (moronic oracle) at June 10, 2011 08:16 AM (Gzv/o)
Posted by: momma at June 10, 2011 12:13 PM (nWikJ)
Hope that's what he does!
Posted by: Roger at June 10, 2011 08:16 AM (tAwhy)
Ah, Team Mitt has announced that they won't be participating in any straw polls:
Despite his frontrunner status, the Romney campaign has elected not to compete in any GOP straw polls, including Iowa.
“Our campaign has made the decision to not participate in any straw polls, whether it’s in Florida, Iowa, Michigan or someplace else,” said Matt Rhoades in a written statement. "We respect the straw poll process. In the last presidential campaign we were both strengthened as an organization and learned some important lessons by participating in them. This time we will focus our energies and resources on winning primaries and caucuses.
Given that these straw polls are major fundraisers for the state party, this seems like a questionable strategy for building support at the state level for the actual primaries.
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at June 10, 2011 08:16 AM (EeYDk)
Posted by: JackStraw at June 10, 2011 08:17 AM (TMB3S)
Posted by: CoolCzech at June 10, 2011 08:18 AM (kUaEF)
Posted by: CoolCzech at June 10, 2011 12:18 PM (kUaEF)
aw come on, a brain damaged gerbil can't be elected, you don't know where he's been.
Posted by: curious at June 10, 2011 08:19 AM (k1rwm)
Posted by: CoolCzech at June 10, 2011 08:20 AM (kUaEF)
Politicians records should be considered in the context of the states they governed in.
That's what we think too! Great minds think alike
Posted by: Mitt and Scott, the Dynamic RINO Duo at June 10, 2011 08:20 AM (sbV1u)
Posted by: Bob Saget was not at his computer when those sext messages were sent to underage girls at June 10, 2011 08:21 AM (F/4zf)
48--and all this while being twice as black as our current president?"
Not your most compelling argument, Herman
Posted by: glowing blue meat at June 10, 2011 08:21 AM (K/USr)
aw come on, a brain damaged gerbil can't be elected, you don't know where he's been.
No, but Richard Gere does and that's good enough for me.
Posted by: Sean Bannion at June 10, 2011 08:21 AM (sbV1u)
Posted by: GMan at June 10, 2011 08:21 AM (sxq57)
Given that these straw polls are major fundraisers for the state party, this seems like a questionable strategy for building support at the state level for the actual primaries.
Unfortunately, making money for the state party is all that the straw polls are good for.
They're lousy at predicting support. The state organizations pretend that they're a measure of organizational and fundraising abilities by the candidates, but in reality their sole purpose is to bilk candidates out of campaign dollars.
I don't know what the effect of skipping the straw polls will have on Romney's campaign, but if I had my way they'd be done away with completely.
Posted by: Hollowpoint at June 10, 2011 08:21 AM (WRW1S)
Posted by: CoolCzech at June 10, 2011 08:21 AM (kUaEF)
Posted by: parisparamusinbrooklyn at June 10, 2011 08:27 AM (nFbvv)
Will vote downticket, but won't vote for Mitt
I might be voting for a couple of demoncrats downticket this time. Never done that before but there are two "Republican" long term incumbents here who have gotten so far off the reservation that a fresh face, even a hard left socialist, would be an improvement.
Posted by: Bob Saget was not at his computer when those sext messages were sent to underage girls at June 10, 2011 08:28 AM (F/4zf)
Posted by: Flapjackmaka at June 10, 2011 08:31 AM (jLhwj)
Really? Why? according to whom?
Any of you guys ever been to the straw poll? You should go.
Regarding the actual straw poll itself, you have to be an Iowa resident to vote but not to volunteer for a candidate (or for that matter, to show up and enjoy the fun).
It's a carnival that takes place in the parking lot of the Iowa State basketball stadium/theater complex.
The candidates give speeches in the stadium in the morning and then there's a county fair-type atmosphere as people mill around, get swag and otherwise have a good time. There're also the Paultards. They bum it out for everyone. Last time, Romney had a HUGE display. Easily the biggest of any candidate. He had t-shirt-clad volunteers all over the place. Various candidates give away various things. There're buttons and the usual paraphernalia, but the most popular ones are the ones who give away cold drinks or ice cream.
Ron Paul does very poorly at these because, again, to vote you have to (a) pay money, about a $40 donation to the Iowa GOP and (b) be an Iowa resident.
As Laurie said in 77, the reason the Republican party chair is so pissed is that this is a major fundraiser for the party. That's why Mitt has essentially written off Iowa by doing this. Nobody in the party is happy with him because now the party will have a harder time getting out the vote to, say, elect 3 out of 4 GOP congressmen or kick out Harkin in 2014. Iowa is not a wealthy state (I'd really like to know where all this crazy ethanol money goes, because we lost a Congressman in the last census).
Mitt's really floundering here. I think he could have won Iowa this time around, because there would be no Huckabee to play identity politics with evangelicals. This also gives an opportunity for a no-name candidate to rise from the pack. The straw poll is in August, while there is no political news going on, so a surprise finish by somebody is going to be a big story. I guess Mitt hopes that's Bachmann, but if it's Perry or Pawlenty he's not going to want a rival.
Posted by: AmishDude at June 10, 2011 08:33 AM (73tyQ)
Posted by: Chad from Iowa at June 10, 2011 08:36 AM (dOFfJ)
I think the problem with Iowa for Romney is that even if he did win the caucus there's a chance whoever came in 2nd would get the buzz. Sometimes "the surprisingly strong 2nd place showing by......." becomes the story more than "As expected the front runner won".
The danger is you win but still lose.
I don't think Romney is going for a quick knock out, he's going for long drawn out trench warfare so Iowa isn't that important. Plus, not having the front runner there, lowers the value of the win.
Posted by: DrewM. at June 10, 2011 08:39 AM (sPao2)
The only 17-year-old kids who will go to this thing will be hardcore conservative activists.
Have you ever gone to this thing? It's (a) out of the way in Ames, a 40-minute drive from Des Moines where the (more fun) state fair will be going on and (b) a very adult event. Believe me, no teenage kids except for the VERY well-informed will be going.
Posted by: AmishDude at June 10, 2011 08:40 AM (73tyQ)
Posted by: momma at June 10, 2011 12:09 PM (nWikJ)
Oh. My. God.
I want names. No goddam "editing error." I want names.
Posted by: AmishDude at June 10, 2011 08:49 AM (73tyQ)
So tight was the money that GingrichÂ’s team couldnÂ’t execute some of the basic plans they had agreed on earlier in the year. The campaign plan called for making a splash with a strong finish in the Iowa straw poll in August, but Gingrich didnÂ’t have the money required to pay the registration fee or to purchase the list of past caucus attendees from the state party.
*cough* Callista's Tiffany bill *cough*
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at June 10, 2011 08:56 AM (EeYDk)
The danger is you win but still lose.
Agreed. At the same time, the frontrunner should act like a frontrunner and should have enough profile to manage expectations without skipping it.
I think that people really think that Iowa plays a bigger role than it does. You have to finish in the top 3 in Iowa to move on. Iowa basically weeds out the also-rans before they get to other states.
Posted by: AmishDude at June 10, 2011 08:59 AM (73tyQ)
Posted by: AmishDude at June 10, 2011 08:59 AM (73tyQ)
Posted by: Stephen Price Blair at June 10, 2011 09:01 AM (QF8uk)
Posted by: Rightwingva at June 10, 2011 09:07 AM (zD3/J)
Posted by: AmishDude at June 10, 2011 12:59 PM (73tyQ)
Maybe but it's no figure skating, there are no style points. The job of the frontrunner is to stay in front. How they do it is simply details.
Besides, when you consider Huckabee and Bob Dole (twice) have won there in the past, I'm leery of people that Iowans like.
Posted by: DrewM. at June 10, 2011 09:14 AM (sPao2)
If I have to vote for Romney I will. Then I will immediately jump off a bridge. Because voting twice in a lifetime for unqualified Rebublican candidates in an effort to hopelessly beat the opposition is enough.
Cut. Jib. Newsletter.
Posted by: Mary Poppins' Practically Perfect Clitoris at June 10, 2011 09:38 AM (zF6Iw)
Posted by: JEM at June 10, 2011 09:41 AM (o+SC1)
Then I will immediately jump off a bridge. Because voting twice in a lifetime for unqualified Rebublican candidates in an effort to hopelessly beat the opposition is enough.
Think about my stuff here. I have been voting since I got out of the Navy in 1977. I have only got to vote FOR one candidate since that time. Every other time it has been for the lesser of the evils, either a communist asshole or a squishy go along to get along. Think about that, in 33 years we had one decent candidate. This is what the Republican "rules" and "electability" has got us.
And some of you wonder why I draw the line at some of the candidates in this pile of muck.
Posted by: Vic at June 10, 2011 10:05 AM (M9Ie6)
Posted by: vaildog at June 10, 2011 11:26 AM (z2O42)
Perry was a Democrat and Al Gore's former campaign manager in TX.
NO.
Plus, he tried to force the poisonous Gardasil onto teenage girls.
If you like RINOS you'll love Perry. He seems conservative until you look below the surface.
Posted by: misty at June 10, 2011 12:47 PM (quvHd)
Anyone that thika Romney is worth a crap should watch this all the way through.
http://tinyurl.com/3luzteb
Posted by: Former Lurker at June 10, 2011 12:57 PM (Z1gvr)
Just when I thought he was the solution to The Won, he's trying desperately to sound like The Won Also.
If down the road he drops another Taxachusetts Euphemism, then I'm breaking up with him.
**
Elliot Garfield: [after hearing that his play has closed] That's okay. Now I'm free to support that other candidate.
Lucy McFadden: What other candidate?
Elliot Garfield: I'm looking, I'm looking!
**
Posted by: Full Moon at June 10, 2011 01:54 PM (m75CK)
I'd vote for anything short of Cynthia McKinney over Zero, but Mitt's not making the bitter pill go down any easier by making Mavericky mating calls to the establishment press every damned day.
Still on team anybody-but-Mitt, presently captained by Paws, but only by default.
Someone please tell me Perry isn't Texas' answer to J.D. Hayworth and I'll consider it my good news for the day.
Posted by: SocietyIs2Blame at June 10, 2011 02:28 PM (srV3y)
106 Vic:
You have a point. My statement at 111 means Mitt's strategists know they can count on my vote no matter how much of an jellyfish he is - and that allows him to kowtow even more.
But Barry's so bad for the country that I can't bring myself to not vote against him, even if only by staying home. The idea of what an out-of-control socialist ass-weasel he will be as a lame duck is just too awful.
I feel like a Cubs fan. Go to the park - get taken for granted and watch more shitty ball at Wrigley. Stay away - team cries poverty, cuts payroll - watch more shitty ball on TV.
Posted by: SocietyIs2Blame at June 10, 2011 02:37 PM (srV3y)
Posted by: political correctness czar at June 10, 2011 04:27 PM (UPNlB)
Posted by: political correctness czar at June 10, 2011 04:51 PM (UPNlB)
thanks for having nice time
Posted by: urdu tutorial at June 12, 2011 07:18 AM (e4WFu)
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Posted by: Rudy Guliani at June 10, 2011 07:43 AM (4Kl5M)