Ace of Spades HQ

August 31, 2011

More On The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
— Ace

I mentioned this yesterday. Public Opinion Strategies posted some analysis of the debt-ceiling debate and how that impacted the political and economic mood of the country, as well as what the Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (usually called "consumer confidence") presages for 2012.

The full pdf slide show is available at the link at the top of their blog post.

Basic points: The public well and truly hated the debt ceiling debate. Not just the outcome -- the debate. They didn't like the process.

I don't know what to say about this, except partisans on both sides didn't like the debt deal because it resulted in a punt, and those in the middle -- who don't like politics in the first place -- tend to resent having to choose sides in a partisan spat.

Thus, those in the middle tend to just take a position of "These are children, squabbling; why can't they come to a solution, without bugging me about it?"

Well, that may be possible in a status quo political situation, where both parties are arguing over very small deviations from the current status quo, but it's not possible when Obama wants to transform the nation, and then the Tea Party and the right-leaning Republicans want to transform it back (or transform it still further into a more limited-government situation).

Some of the cries of "this is so stupid and childish!" are, then, rather stupid and childish themselves. I don't know what you can do about that.

Now, the net effect of this debate was to severely weaken consumer confidence. The public seems convinced that no actual progress can occur in the current situation, and that's probably because, um, no actual progress can occur in the current situation. Obama claims his mandate from 2008 is still in effect, while Republicans have a fresher mandate from 2010 -- and neither side is budging much.

The public is right -- our politics are paralyzed and we cannot have actual solutions until the whole of the government has the same mandate.

By the way, consumer sentiment has rarely plunged as much in has in the last two months. It dropped only 8.8 points after 9/11, for example. It's dropped 15.8 points in the past 60 days.

Finally, there are the slides near the end about the impact of consumer sentiment on the incumbent president seeking reelection. I've mentioned the main points -- no president has been reelected when the Index was at 75 or below; and the index currently stands at 55.7.

While liberals want to keep citing Reagan -- "Reagan dropped to 40% in the third quarter in the year before his reelection!" -- they fail to look at the numbers undergiriding all of this.

While Reagan's approval had dropped, in Q3 of 1983 GDP was suringing, and consumer confidence was likewise rising -- it was over 90 in Q3 1983, and would rise still further by November 1984.

A more telling comparison is, of course, with Jimmy Carter.

And how is Obama doing compared to Carter?

Only slightly better.

See, I lied again. He's doing worse. The consumer sentiment is now lower than it was in the equivalent quarter of Carter's term. And further, the index rose near the end of Carter's term to a lame but not awful 75. Carter still lost .

Below, one of the slides tracking consumer confidence in Reagan's and Carter's last two years of their reelection-term, and Obama's, for the portion of the next two years we actually know.

Now, as they always say, "a lot can happen between now and election day" -- and it probably will.

If this is the worst period for Obama, and the economy begins improving, then this trough will be relatively well-timed for him. Better to have it now than later.

But note the old saying that the public's opinions about the state of the economy are formed 6-9 months before the election. Carter's late rise did not help him.

I'm pretty sure, based on general bad news, that there will be no growth this quarter. So when does it finally start?

GDP is a leading indicator, while consumer sentiment is a here-and-now indicator. It will take the public months and months to feel the effects of improving GDP... even if it does improve, and I'm not at all confident it will.

Obama needs good news and fast.

Posted by: Ace at 10:57 AM | Comments (122)
Post contains 745 words, total size 5 kb.

1
brb, gettin another stat...

Posted by: soothsayer at August 31, 2011 10:59 AM (G/zuv)

2 suringing?

Posted by: eastvalleyphx at August 31, 2011 11:00 AM (qiOph)

3 OT: General Petraeus is retiring. Didn't know if it's already been talked about.

Posted by: GergS at August 31, 2011 11:01 AM (7ahtU)

4 Whose left in Michigan to give a shit about anything?

Posted by: Barry, your Law Review editor at August 31, 2011 11:01 AM (4sQwu)

5
Last month:

"The share of the eligible population holding a job declined to 58.1 percent, the lowest since July 1983."

Yikes!

This is an interesting indicator, I think, and we should watch it.

Posted by: soothsayer at August 31, 2011 11:01 AM (G/zuv)

6 Now, as they always say, "a lot can happen between now and election day" ...ON election day- we say a lot can happen on election day.

Posted by: The SEIU, ACORN, St. Louis judges, and New Black Panthers at August 31, 2011 11:02 AM (FcR7P)

7 Obama needs good news and fast.

Not gonna happen between now and November. Not at this rate.

Posted by: Hobbitopoly at August 31, 2011 11:02 AM (h1p5V)

8 I am suringing to a climax.

Posted by: Obumbles at August 31, 2011 11:03 AM (Xm1aB)

9 Can he re-kill Osama?

Posted by: Ben at August 31, 2011 11:03 AM (wuv1c)

10 Michigan was hit especially hard by the Japanese tsunami...

Posted by: Barky O'Bumbles at August 31, 2011 11:05 AM (FcR7P)

11 Suringing: Surging while whinging.

Posted by: Bat Chain Puller at August 31, 2011 11:05 AM (SCcgT)

12 He needs to carterize that wound.

Posted by: cherry pi at August 31, 2011 11:06 AM (OhYCU)

13 obama outmaneuvering those selfish bitches who scheduled their debate over his joint session will surge him to victory in 2012.

Posted by: city whore at August 31, 2011 11:06 AM (ggRof)

14 So the economy will have to be seen as improving by February of 2012 at the outside to do Bambi any good. Is there any realistic prospect of that?

Posted by: joncelli at August 31, 2011 11:06 AM (RD7QR)

15 Re the last graph: the problem for Obama isn't that there isn't enough time before the election for the economy to recover; it's that he's the impediment to the economy recovering. With the NLRB and Boeing... and the DOJ and Gibson Guitars... and Obamacare kicking in... and the perception (and reality) that the EPA is in the business of persecuting American manufacturers... and the Obama Administration actively working to limit oil exploration and drilling and to close coal plants, making energy more expensive... and... well, you get the picture. With all that, capital is sitting on the sidelines until we get a new President, period.

Posted by: The Regular Guy at August 31, 2011 11:07 AM (qHCyt)

16 Obama needs good news and fast. I think he's gonna go full Putin/Kim Jong-Il - taking over the hurricane center was a first step. Fighting tigers, discovering cold fusion, bringing back Firefly.. that kind of shit. Because the economy is fucked.

Posted by: IreneFingIrene at August 31, 2011 11:07 AM (JNqU9)

17 Really, you mofos need to shut it, my city gal be making some good points.

Posted by: city pimp at August 31, 2011 11:07 AM (Xm1aB)

18 Obama needs good news and fast.

It's too late for President Say Stuff. We would have to grow at something like 10% annual to make any dent in the employment situation by next summer.

BHOned.

Posted by: toby928™ at August 31, 2011 11:08 AM (GTbGH)

19 it's amazing how consumer confidence was surging the closer the electorate got to their chance to vote Carter out of office.

Posted by: PR at August 31, 2011 11:08 AM (XmJZ7)

20 It is pretty much over for king barry. All he can do is try to damage as much as he can of the US economy between now and January 2013. All the press can do is baldfaced lie about his competition, and try to incite riots to distract voters from the recession.

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at August 31, 2011 11:08 AM (0N5pL)

21 The reason why the debt ceiling debate drove down consumer confidence was that it demonstrated unquestionably that the US will never, ever pay back its debt, and that to even contemplate cutting the amount we are currently borrowing in a meaningful way is considered EXTREME.

Posted by: blaster at August 31, 2011 11:08 AM (Fw2Gg)

22 In other words, when you're President Bad News, waiting and hoping for good news is f**ing futile.

Posted by: The Regular Guy at August 31, 2011 11:08 AM (qHCyt)

23 Yeah. Obama's surging.

Surging like last night's nachos and hot wings, and with the same destination.

Posted by: sifty: N UR BASE, STEEPIN UR T at August 31, 2011 11:08 AM (4CSeG)

24 Can he re-kill Osama?

Posted by: Ben at August 31, 2011 03:03 PM (wuv1c)

No, but he's sent a SEAL team to get Casey Anthony

Posted by: al-Cicero, Tea Party Jihadist at August 31, 2011 11:08 AM (QKKT0)

25 All I know is we're having one hell of a party right after the election as long as Obama loses.

Posted by: Dow at August 31, 2011 11:09 AM (Xm1aB)

26 I am among the 6% (Rasmussen) that think Congress is doing a good job. Why? Because there is gridlock. It was all I could hope for in the 2010 elections, and we have it.

This is a generational or even multi-generational battle going on right now about the role government in our lives. For once, the right arguments are being made. Or to put it into Glenn Beck terms, the Overton window is getting a hard shove to the right.

An earlier link by Monty? talked about how people are voting with their feet and fleeing high tax, high regulation blue states. That is the biggest vote of all imho. Lots of people are putting their bodies where their mouths are, to butcher a phrase.

Posted by: GnuBreed at August 31, 2011 11:09 AM (ENKCw)

27 There's only one rational explanation. Consumer sentiment is racist!

Posted by: TheQuietMan at August 31, 2011 11:10 AM (1Jaio)

28 Now, as they always say, "a lot can happen between now and election day" -- and it probably will.

Like a Big Important Speech before a joint session of Congress, with soaring oratory and shit, bitchez!

Posted by: Barky O'Genius at August 31, 2011 11:11 AM (QKKT0)

29 _{how people are voting with their feet and fleeing high tax, high regulation blue states.}

Too bad Obama is making sure that most of them will live in poverty when they get where they are going.

Posted by: sifty: N UR BASE, STEEPIN UR T at August 31, 2011 11:11 AM (4CSeG)

30 We also need to get to 62+ in the Senate to actually roll back the changes already passed. An impossibility I think.

It will still be war in the trenches after the election.

Posted by: toby928™ at August 31, 2011 11:11 AM (GTbGH)

"By the way, consumer sentiment has rarely plunged as much in has in the last two months. It dropped only 8 points after 9/11, for example. It's dropped 15 points in the past 60 days."

A one day attack can be sustained. A 4-year attack of stupid kills the spirit.

Posted by: Sub-Tard at August 31, 2011 11:12 AM (0M3AQ)

32 Like a Big Important Speech before a joint session of Congress, with soaring oratory and shit, bitchez!

Posted by: Barky O'Genius at August 31, 2011 03:11 PM (QKKT0)

Please stress how the "green economy" is going to lead the way to an economic golden age

Posted by: TheQuietMan at August 31, 2011 11:12 AM (1Jaio)

33 We'll save the day!

Posted by: High Speed Rail at August 31, 2011 11:13 AM (Xm1aB)

34 This Barry guy really sucks, and we should know!

Posted by: 2008 Detroit Lions at August 31, 2011 11:13 AM (qvb/m)

35 Here is a realistic fear -- that the SCoaMF could announce a 2 year freeze in new regulations. I dunno if he could even pull that off with all the new agencies and boards being created by OCare and Frank-Dodd (in other words he would be lying once again), but it would give him a big boost in the polls and probably in consumer confidence too.

Hopefully he isn't smart enough to try a Bill Clinton move to the center.

Posted by: GnuBreed at August 31, 2011 11:14 AM (ENKCw)

36 It is pretty much over for king barry. All he can do is try to damage as much as he can of the US economy between now and January 2013. All the press can do is baldfaced lie about his competition, and try to incite riots to distract voters from the recession. work up the left for the 4 year struggle ahead.

It's racism from here on out.

Posted by: cherry pi at August 31, 2011 11:16 AM (OhYCU)

37 I asked this in the last thread, but.....Could Boehner request an advanced copy of Bumbles important speech? That way it could be refuted in the debates.

Also, I am in Michigan.Stabanaugh is in trouble (re-election wise), and Obama is, too.

Posted by: chillin the most for Perry at August 31, 2011 11:16 AM (6IV8T)

38 Hopefully he isn't smart enough to try a Bill Clinton move to the center.

Absolutely NO sign of that so far. "Smart" isn't in JEF's makeup.

Posted by: al-Cicero, Tea Party Jihadist at August 31, 2011 11:16 AM (QKKT0)

none of this matters- Obama deserves a 2nd term because he's black

_{THERE- WE SAID IT}

Posted by: MSNBC at August 31, 2011 11:16 AM (8sCoq)

40 Hopefully he isn't smart enough to try a Bill Clinton move to the center.

Posted by: GnuBreed at August 31, 2011 03:14 PM (ENKCw)

he has no idea where the center is.

Posted by: Oldcat at August 31, 2011 11:17 AM (z1N6a)

41 Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

**Looks at Ace's post**

Your Honor, the Prosecution rests.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at August 31, 2011 11:17 AM (8y9MW)

42 OT: "Dr. Paul is weighing his options," says the congressman's campaign spokesman, Jesse Benton. "Our campaign, however, thinks it is undignified that the President of the United States would resort to such transparent tactics to step on our Republican debate. The real losers here are the American People who deserve the opportunity to hear from both the President and the GOP contenders."

2nd look at Ron Paul?

Posted by: cherry pi at August 31, 2011 11:18 AM (OhYCU)

This Barry guy really sucks

You didn't hear that from me...he also catches better than he pitches.

Posted by: Reggie 'Forget the Glove' Love at August 31, 2011 11:19 AM (OpUcY)

bringing back Firefly

He's got my vote...

Posted by: trainer at August 31, 2011 11:19 AM (Rojyk)

Absolutely NO sign of that so far. "Smart" isn't in JEF's makeup.

Bill Clinton wasn't all about the commie. Bill Clinton was all about--Bill Clinton. So he lied and triangulated where it suit him.

Barack Obama actually *isn't* lying; he truly believes in the commie.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at August 31, 2011 11:20 AM (ujg0T)

46 2nd look at Ron Paul? Posted by: cherry pi at August 31, 2011 03:18 PM (OhYCU) No, not even a first look at Ron Paul. But it's good of him to bitch slap the SCOAMF.

Posted by: joncelli at August 31, 2011 11:20 AM (RD7QR)

47 I think the plan is going to be about $400B in spending that will include something the Republicans would like - and also a bunch of supporting schools, unemployment extensions, other stuff that sends money to unions. The Republicans will reject and he will use unspent stimulus funds to pay for his stuff and say, oops, I wanted to do the stuff the Republicans wanted but just not enough money because they didn't play.

Posted by: blaster at August 31, 2011 11:21 AM (Fw2Gg)

OT: "Dr. Paul is weighing his options," says the congressman's campaign spokesman, Jesse Benton. "Our campaign, however, thinks it is undignified that the President of the United States would resort to such transparent tactics to step on our Republican debate. The real losers here are the American People who deserve the opportunity to hear from both the President and the GOP contenders."

2nd look at Ron Paul?

In a world where foreign policy did not matter, I would be a hardcore Paulian. And frankly, so would most of us Morons.

But we don't live in that world. The delusional Paulians unfortunately do.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at August 31, 2011 11:21 AM (ujg0T)

49 Hopefully he isn't smart enough to try a Bill Clinton move to the center.

He'll probably try, but fall flat. Playing center-right goes against his every instinct, so I doubt he can convincingly pull it off.

I'm hoping for a lot more challenges from the Republican side on his policies. Perry's showing promise, and I hope Mitt starts taking bigger chunks out.

Posted by: Al Sharpton at August 31, 2011 11:21 AM (UOcNk)

50 The consumer sentiment is now lower than it was in the equivalent quarter of Carter's term. And that's with us holding interest rates at zero. Carter had interest rates in the teens. This Obama fellow is a special category of suck; he makes other stuttering clusterfucks of miserable failures feel good about themselves.

Posted by: The Fed at August 31, 2011 11:21 AM (FcR7P)

51 I asked this in the last thread, but.....Could Boehner request an advanced copy of Bumbles important speech? That way it could be refuted in the debates.

I doubt it- and even if they could, would you trust them to send over the correct speech? "Oops, sorry, we sent you the first draft. Obviously there were some minor revisions."

Really, it doesn't matter, though: NBC wouldn't have time to incorporate the questions into the debate, either. So you might get some pro-forma "In his address tonight, Barack Obama said..." questions, but the answers will be something along the lines of, "Well, I'd have to look at the specific numbers to know if the President is correct or not. All I can say is that President Obama promised we would not rise over 8% unemployment if we passed the Stimulus. We passed it, and we're at over 9% unemployment- above where he said we would be without the stimulus. Mr. Obama promised that if we passed the debt-ceiling deal, our credit rating would not be downgraded- but it was anyway."

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at August 31, 2011 11:21 AM (8y9MW)

52 FYI - NBC/Politico not moving debate; "Terrific opportunity to hear from national leaders of both major parties," says spox.

Posted by: ugknown at August 31, 2011 11:22 AM (fOPv7)

53 Here is a realistic fear -- that the SCoaMF could announce a 2 year freeze in new regulations. I dunno if he could even pull that off with all the new agencies and boards being created by OCare and Frank-Dodd (in other words he would be lying once again), but it would give him a big boost in the polls and probably in consumer confidence too.

Hopefully he isn't smart enough to try a Bill Clinton move to the center.

Posted by: GnuBreed at August 31, 2011 03:14 PM (ENKCw)

That would go against what is obvious to anyone who knows anything about what's going on right now: SCOAMF's concerted effort to destroy this country. He haz regulations. He be happy.

Posted by: Soona - Tearorrist at August 31, 2011 11:22 AM (k0vGp)

54 2nd look at Ron Paul?

Posted by: cherry pi at August 31, 2011 03:18 PM (OhYCU)

No.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at August 31, 2011 11:22 AM (8y9MW)

55 yeah, I think Obama needs to look to figure out how FDR got himself reelected on the cusp of the Great Depression. I think Carter's uptick was caused by the expectation of him losing the election.

Posted by: joeindc44 at August 31, 2011 11:24 AM (QxSug)

56 Could Boehner request an advanced copy of Bumbles important speech? Obama has only had three years of focus on jobs. There's no way this speech will be done in time.

Posted by: t-bird at August 31, 2011 11:24 AM (FcR7P)

57 AllenG OF COURSE NBC will be able to have time to incorporate the questions they are on his team!

Posted by: blaster at August 31, 2011 11:24 AM (Fw2Gg)

58 2nd look at Ron Paul?

Posted by: cherry pi at August 31, 2011 03:18 PM (OhYCU)

"No."

OK, once again:

Where Ron Paul Kicks Ass: Domestic Policies

Where Ron Paul Sucks Donk Dick: Foreign Policies.

That rests the case for, and against, Ron Paul.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at August 31, 2011 11:25 AM (ujg0T)

59 "It's dropped 15 points in the past 60 days ... the index currently stands at 55.7"

Good News

Consumer Confidence will stabilize no later than March !!!!!

Posted by: Mark E at August 31, 2011 11:25 AM (w5RwR)

60 52 FYI - NBC/Politico not moving debate; "Terrific opportunity to hear from national leaders of both major parties," says spox.
------
Split screen.

Republicans should not stand or applaud.

Michelle Bachmann and Ron Paul should hammer the POTUS on the scheduling since they're the ones who are really affected by it.

Posted by: Weasel Antidefamation League at August 31, 2011 11:25 AM (5H6zj)

61 I'm sooooo sleeeepy. Could proud onkey tell that bedtime story about how Barry Soereto is the bestest father and husband ever ever ever? I love the part about spending his birthday by himself, and flying to the vay kay in Massholechussetts in his and hers Air Force jets. Twice. Two years in a row.

Posted by: dr kill at August 31, 2011 11:26 AM (le5qc)

62 Will those Greek Columns even fit in the House Chamber?

Posted by: garrett at August 31, 2011 11:26 AM (OpUcY)

63 57 AllenG OF COURSE NBC will be able to have time to incorporate the questions they are on his team!

Nah, they'll be too busy asking about evolution, gay marriage, and abortion.

Posted by: Y-not at August 31, 2011 11:27 AM (5H6zj)

64 **Could Boehner request an advanced copy of Bumbles important speech? ** I think I see a flaw in Oblamer's brilliant political plan. He still has to give a speech, and as I've always said, oblahblah is boring and lazy. He's ignored the fact that his speech is going to be flat like old dr. pepper.

Posted by: joeindc44 at August 31, 2011 11:27 AM (QxSug)

65 Posted by: blaster at August 31, 2011 03:24 PM (Fw2Gg)

Naaa.

If they release the speech to NBC without releasing it to the rest of the Press, the rest of the Press will squeal. If they release it to everyone except Fox, it will be a transparent political move, and therefore ineffective (remember- "independents" are unlike to watch the debate anyway). If they release it to everyone, Fox will release "portions" via its website- thus negating the advantage.

In short, it's too much risk (look at all the negatives I came up with in about a minute) for little or no gain. Even if Obama wants to, his handlers would warn him off.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at August 31, 2011 11:29 AM (8y9MW)

66 I think I see a flaw in Oblamer's brilliant political plan. He still has to give a speech, and as I've always said, oblahblah is boring and lazy. He's ignored the fact that his speech is going to be flat like old dr. pepper. Posted by: joeindc44 at August 31, 2011 03:27 PM (QxSug) If he gives the same old boiler plate speech he has been giving the last 3 months, it will go over like a lead balloon. Even the MSM would be running for cover.

Posted by: nevergiveup at August 31, 2011 11:29 AM (aYQHH)

67 Obama needs good news and fast.

Well, he does have the Olympics in Chicago to preside over next year---- oh wait, ---

Posted by: dr kill at August 31, 2011 11:30 AM (le5qc)

68 I blame our economiuc woes on the potato blight in Ireland in 1840s. That's because Obama has yet to do it and I want to preempt him on this one.

Posted by: Molon Labe at August 31, 2011 11:31 AM (e36+G)

69 Well, he does have the Olympics in Chicago to preside over next year---- oh wait, --- Posted by: dr kill at August 31, 2011 03:30 PM (le5qc) And the Cubs in the World Series...?

Posted by: nevergiveup at August 31, 2011 11:31 AM (aYQHH)

70 @ 52. Good points. I think NBC refusing to move the debate is all a coordinated attempt with the WH to force the GOP to share the spotlight with Barky. That way he get's his point across without the Repub candidates beating him up for two hours without a response.

Posted by: ugknown at August 31, 2011 11:31 AM (fOPv7)

71 **The public well and truly hated the debt ceiling debate. Not just the outcome -- the debate. They didn't like the process.** They didn't like Obama saying that gee maybe granny will starve and they didn't like the other side basically agreeing with obama. Boehner's been almost as much of a failure as obama. At least Boehner just sucks at politics and probably isn't fuckign the country on purpose.

Posted by: joeindc44 at August 31, 2011 11:31 AM (QxSug)

72 This socialist in chief will do NOTHING to improve the economy in the next 12 months. He's doing what he BELIEVES. He BELIEVES in fundamentally changing this country from a capitalist system to a socialist / marxist system. That's exactly what he's doing REGARDLESS of what he SAYS he's doing.

Posted by: © Sponge at August 31, 2011 11:33 AM (UK9cE)

73 Michelle Bachmann and Ron Paul should go to the "joint" session, since they are members of Congress.

Posted by: cherry pi at August 31, 2011 11:33 AM (OhYCU)

Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at August 31, 2011 11:33 AM (jx2j9)

75 "Osama found alive! So Gutsy Call Prez kills him again--with bare hands!"

Posted by: Desperate MSM Headline at August 31, 2011 11:33 AM (FlVA8)

76 They don't need to release the whole speech to NBC - just give them some questions that would be "good to ask."

Posted by: blaster at August 31, 2011 11:33 AM (Fw2Gg)

77 I think I see a flaw in Oblamer's brilliant political plan.

The flaw was in doing something that everyone will see as politically motivated (I bet, when I mention this to my wife {totally not into politics} tonight, she'll even yodel about how stupid it is). If he'd played it right, he would have released his speech on the 7th, say, at 6 PM (just long enough for NBC to add some questions to the debate, and not enough for the GOP to prepare) and then have the speech on the 8th, so he can say, "See, all the complaints they have, I had already addressed. The only reason I didn't give my speech yesterday was that I didn't want to upstage them."

I'm on the group that says Boehner should invite him for some other time. Say, the 6th. Or, even better, noon on the 7th.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at August 31, 2011 11:33 AM (8y9MW)

78 **If he gives the same old boiler plate speech he has been giving the last 3 months, it will go over like a lead balloon. Even the MSM would be running for cover.** Let me be clear, that, as I've always said, I will pivot to jobs sometime next month, as jobs is the most important thing ever, except for the stuff I am pivoting away from. So, under my plan, which was written by an associate professor of feminist shriek therapy and which was reviewed by at least two white house interns and bullet pointed for me over lunch, if you like your complete welfare state, you can keep your welfare state.

Posted by: joeindc44 at August 31, 2011 11:34 AM (QxSug)

79 If he gives the same old boiler plate speech he has been giving the last 3 months, it will go over like a lead balloon.

O'bumbles has blown his last Big Speeches so badly even the MSM didn't defend them. Corporate jet owners, anyone?

It's beyond Zero's competence level to deliver a speech that accomplishes anything, let alone actually produce a plan that is anything more than a rehash of his usual remedies of more spending and higher taxes. He'll crash and burn just like before, and his approval numbers will reach new lows.

Posted by: al-Cicero, Tea Party Jihadist at August 31, 2011 11:35 AM (QKKT0)

80 Comment 74 was all of the radio telescopes on Earth trying to detect substance in SCOAMF's suit.

Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at August 31, 2011 11:35 AM (jx2j9)

81 Maybe Obumbles can tag along with Putin when he snorkels in 2 feet of water and discovers ancient artifacts.

Posted by: yinzer at August 31, 2011 11:35 AM (/Mla1)

This scheduling horseshit is only the tiny tip of the Stalinist thuggery we'll see during this election campaign. It's not going to be pretty...and it's not going to be peaceful. They'll really start ramping everything up come this next January. We haven't seen anything yet.

Remember. SCOAMF and the dems have no morals. They have no shame.

Posted by: Soona - Tearorrist at August 31, 2011 11:35 AM (k0vGp)

83 We also need to get to 62+ in the Senate to actually roll back the changes already passed. An impossibility I think.

We don't need 60 for spending bills. Kill the funding, kill the beast.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at August 31, 2011 11:36 AM (B+qrE)

84 Come and taste my ass again, infidels.

Posted by: The "Tupac Bin Laden" Surge at August 31, 2011 11:36 AM (/ZZCn)

85 This must be what Hitler meant when he mentioned breaking the sound barrier.

Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at August 31, 2011 11:36 AM (jx2j9)

86 Maybe the Nobel Prize Committee can be conned into giving him a second one just before the election. That'd clinch it for him.

Posted by: al-Cicero, Tea Party Jihadist at August 31, 2011 11:37 AM (QKKT0)

87 It's not going to be pretty...and it's not going to be peaceful.

I'm not so sure it'll get all that violent. The right wing tends to be better armed than the left, and it'll only take a few incidents before rioters get the idea that, "hey, maybe we should riot somewhere else..."

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at August 31, 2011 11:38 AM (8y9MW)

88 Levin covered this yesterday. How many of the 10 Planks of the Communist Manifesto has SCoaMF and the Dems been instituting?

1. Abolition of private property and the application of all rents of land to public purposes.

2. A heavy progressive or graduated income tax.

3. Abolition of all rights of inheritance.

4. Confiscation of the property of all emigrants and rebels.

5. Centralization of credit in the hands of the state, by means of a national bank with State capital and an exclusive monopoly.

6. Centralization of the means of communications and transportation in the hands of the State.

7. Extension of factories and instruments of production owned by the state, the bringing into cultivation of waste lands, and the improvement of the soil generally in accordance with a common plan.

8. Equal liability of all to labor. Establishment of industrial armies, especially for agriculture.

9. Combination of agriculture with manufacturing industries, gradual abolition of the distinction between town and country, by a more equitable distribution of population over the country.

10. Free education for all children in public schools. Abolition of children's factory labor in its present form. Combination of education with industrial production.

Posted by: © Sponge at August 31, 2011 11:38 AM (UK9cE)

89 This guy has given like 70 million speeches. That's like 2 for every round of golf. And this one is supposed to be important?

Yeah. Right.

Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at August 31, 2011 11:39 AM (jx2j9)

90 I am African American, So I must vote for Obama whether my life sucks because of him.....

Posted by: LaQuisha Stonehopper at August 31, 2011 11:39 AM (48wze)

91 Speaker Boo-Hoo should only agree to the joint session if there are no tele-prompters.

(and if the Null brings enough tissues for the speaker)

Posted by: Mark E at August 31, 2011 11:40 AM (w5RwR)

92 77 The flaw was in doing something that everyone will see as politically motivated (I bet, when I mention this to my wife {totally not into politics} tonight, she'll even yodel about how stupid it is). If he'd played it right, he would have released his speech on the 7th, say, at 6 PM (just long enough for NBC to add some questions to the debate, and not enough for the GOP to prepare) and then have the speech on the 8th, so he can say, "See, all the complaints they have, I had already addressed. The only reason I didn't give my speech yesterday was that I didn't want to upstage them."

I'm on the group that says Boehner should invite him for some other time. Say, the 6th. Or, even better, noon on the 7th.

Even the WaPo noted that the "it's coincidental" line was ridiculous.

Meanwhile, Boehner has yet to say anything.

Posted by: Miss80sBaby at August 31, 2011 11:42 AM (o2lIv)

93 Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at August 31, 2011 11:42 AM (8y9MW)

94 One thing that people keep forgetting about late rises in economic indices when they occur late in an unpopular president's term: it's not that "it didn't help the unpopular president," it's that people began to anticipate better times ahead once it looked like someone else was going to be president soon.

Expect Obama and the Democrats to make a lot of hay next year if he is behind in the polls but indices start showing signs of improvement: it's not because of Obama, but because Obama is likely to lose.

Posted by: Jim B at August 31, 2011 11:43 AM (QD3//)

95 _{Meanwhile, Boehner has yet to say anything.}

Scotch hangovers are a bitch. Probably just waking up and trying to get rid of the hooker.

Posted by: sifty: N UR BASE, STEEPIN UR T at August 31, 2011 11:43 AM (4CSeG)

"Ask not what your Country can do for you, ask what you can do for your Country." Something like that? I think the possibilites argue for "we are the ones we have been looking for."

Final analysis, give him the date, just not the time. Shift it to suit both requirements. Call it compromise and see if he whines. He sucks in so many dimensions he is incapable of inspiring anything but loathing and hysterics. So let the droning begin. Just sit quietly and watch him dance with Teleprompter. It really is nothing more than masterbation. In his case with the only one he loves.

Posted by: Sub-Tard at August 31, 2011 11:44 AM (0M3AQ)

97 Even the WaPo noted that the "it's coincidental" line was ridiculous.

You know, what I'd love to see is some compilation of all the stupid and obviously partisan things SCOAMFOTUS has done, and compile a list of which newspapers haven't called him out on them. Something tells me there would only be 1 or 2 that never called him out on something.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at August 31, 2011 11:44 AM (8y9MW)

SCOAMF Clock iPhone app among the most popular. No sarc.

Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at August 31, 2011 11:46 AM (jx2j9)

99
The empty buildings all over town are saying more than these fuckin little charts and graphs.

Anyone stupid enough to watch Obama give another Oprah speech rather than watch the debate is going to vote for Obama anyway.

Posted by: sifty: N UR BASE, STEEPIN UR T at August 31, 2011 11:46 AM (4CSeG)

100 I'm not so sure it'll get all that violent. The right wing tends to be better armed than the left, and it'll only take a few incidents before rioters get the idea that, "hey, maybe we should riot somewhere else..."

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at August 31, 2011 03:38 PM (8y9MW)

Perhaps you talking about the states that support an armed citizenery. There are many states that don't. You know, like most of the northeast, CA (or the whole west coast, for that matter), IL, to just name a few.

Posted by: Soona - Tearorrist at August 31, 2011 11:46 AM (k0vGp)

101

Yep. Wouldn't it be great if the pubbies are watching it on their Iphones while Sparky sings to Teleprompter. Good visuals. Shark - jump - dead man talking.

Posted by: Sub-Tard at August 31, 2011 11:48 AM (0M3AQ)

102 Scotch hangovers are a bitch. Probably just waking up and trying to get rid of the hooker.

I found that paying them usually works.

Posted by: Elliot Spitzer at August 31, 2011 11:49 AM (QKKT0)

103 Perhaps you talking about the states that support an armed citizenery. There are many states that don't. You know, like most of the northeast, CA (or the whole west coast, for that matter), IL, to just name a few.

That's true. I'm just thinking that, for the most part, even Liberals have enough sense not to defecate where they sleep.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at August 31, 2011 11:49 AM (8y9MW)

104

SCOAMF Clock iPhone app among the most popular. No sarc.

Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at August 31, 2011 03:46 PM (jx2j9)

Now that it's known and publicized, it's only a matter of hours before they pull it from iTunes.

Posted by: © Sponge at August 31, 2011 11:49 AM (UK9cE)

105 100 I'm not so sure it'll get all that violent. The right wing tends to be better armed than the left, and it'll only take a few incidents before rioters get the idea that, "hey, maybe we should riot somewhere else..."

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at August 31, 2011 03:38 PM (8y9MW)

Well then they need to grow a pair. Its a Federal system for a reason. Pussy states get slapped around by their citizens, because there pussies. The Constitution allows for this possibility.

Posted by: Sub-Tard at August 31, 2011 11:49 AM (0M3AQ)

106 I found that paying them usually works.

Posted by: Elliot Spitzer at August 31, 2011 03:49 PM (QKKT0)

I see what you did there.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at August 31, 2011 11:50 AM (8y9MW)

107 Scotch hangovers are a bitch. Probably just waking up and trying to get rid of the hooker. I found that paying them usually works. Posted by: Elliot Spitzer at August 31, 2011 03:49 PM (QKKT0) That even works with wives and girlfriends if you pay them enough

Posted by: nevergiveup at August 31, 2011 11:50 AM (aYQHH)

108 @mlcalderone: John Harris tells me NBC/Politico's GOP presidential debate will be after Obama is done.

Posted by: Miss80sBaby at August 31, 2011 11:50 AM (o2lIv)

109 107 Scotch hangovers are a bitch. Probably just waking up and trying to get rid of the hooker.

I found that paying them usually works.
Posted by: Elliot Spitzer at August 31, 2011 03:49 PM (QKKT0)

That even works with wives and girlfriends if you pay them enough That's called the installment plan. You pay them with a plan of installing something. Never seems to work out though.

Posted by: Sub-Tard at August 31, 2011 11:51 AM (0M3AQ)

110 John Harris tells me NBC/Politico's GOP presidential debate will be after Obama is done.

Posted by: Miss80sBaby at August 31, 2011 03:50 PM (o2lIv)

Just another case of the narcissist in chief forcing everyone to rearrange their schedules around his sorry ass.

Posted by: © Sponge at August 31, 2011 11:54 AM (UK9cE)

111 That's true. I'm just thinking that, for the most part, even Liberals have enough sense not to defecate where they sleep.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at August 31, 2011 03:49 PM (8y9MW)

Yeah, right. As I said upthread. Leftists have no morals, no shame, and no discernable thought patterns.

Posted by: Soona - Tearorrist at August 31, 2011 11:56 AM (k0vGp)

112

Thus, those in the middle tend to just take a position of "These are children, squabbling; why can't they come to a solution, without bugging me about it?"

...Some of the cries of "this is so stupid and childish!" are, then, rather stupid and childish themselves. I don't know what you can do about that.

This is the reaction in 90% of "independents" I spoke with during the whole debate. Too bad they were also the least informed people I spoke with. The "independents" I know were either totally ignorant or had swallowed liberal talking points whole.

Some of my more well-informed Lib friends at least knew their talking points were just that - they admitted they were arguing loosely with the facts toward a desired outcome, but described us as doing the same, so it was OK to them.

The "independents" just took these claims as facts. Given that most of them openly state that they avoid "partisan" news sites like Fox and watch/read "unbiased" sources like CNN and Politico (to the extent they look for news on the Net at all), it's not surprising.

It's going to be hard to convince the modern "Know-Nothing" party of independent "No Labelers" of anything when they implicitly trust the mainstream media to report the story, and don't seem to give a fig for the Internet or radio as a news source (too "partisan").

Their ignorance is the reason we have a SCOAMFOTUS. I don't want to alienate them, but I'm damn tired of kissing their ass while they conflate their ideological baby-splitting and outright refusal to engage in debate with "intellectualism" then spit in my eye by calling me a knuckle-dragging partisan for spending the time to inform myself to boot.

Posted by: SocietyIs2Blame at August 31, 2011 11:57 AM (yK8YH)

113 **Leftists have no morals, no shame, and no discernable thought patterns.** um,no, their thought pattern is "must feel smug."

Posted by: joeindc44 at August 31, 2011 11:57 AM (QxSug)

114 So the SCoaMF can be his usual 50 minutes late so that he fucks up the debate and keeps his betters sitting in the green room waiting on him?
People will get pissed or find something else to do (he hopes) so the viewer numbers can go down.

What a piece o'shit.

Posted by: sifty: N UR BASE, STEEPIN UR T at August 31, 2011 12:02 PM (4CSeG)

115 mkhammer Mary Katharine Ham:
Ha, that about says it. RT @pwire: "The most gratuitously -- and joyously! -- dickish move of his presidency." http://tinyurl.com/3td4l58

Posted by: Miss80sBaby at August 31, 2011 12:08 PM (o2lIv)

116 Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at August 31, 2011 12:14 PM (1Nzoh)

117 108 @mlcalderone: John Harris tells me NBC/Politico's GOP presidential debate will be after Obama is done. Smart move. Let the pubbies have the last say of the day. I am pretty sure they can find the "whinny one" whinny and comment on that. That's all people will take away from one his speeches: how petulant was teh won.

Posted by: Sub-Tard at August 31, 2011 12:20 PM (0M3AQ)

118 ChadPergram In a letter, Boehner asks Obama to speak to Congress on September 8th instead.

Posted by: Miss80sBaby at August 31, 2011 12:22 PM (o2lIv)

119 114 So the SCoaMF can be his usual 50 minutes late so that he fucks up the debate and keeps his betters sitting in the green room waiting on him?
People will get pissed or find something else to do (he hopes) so the viewer numbers can go down.

What a piece o'shit.
Invoke the Academic rule: Profs can be 15 minutes late, TAs can be 10 minutes late. At ten minutes, if he is not there, then leave.

Posted by: Sub-Tard at August 31, 2011 12:22 PM (0M3AQ)

120 nooooo pooooost

Posted by: cherry pi at August 31, 2011 12:34 PM (OhYCU)

121 I think the debt downgrade really shook people, made them realize absolutely no one is running the show. When in doubt, pullback on spending

Posted by: ginaswo at August 31, 2011 01:10 PM (pZaD5)

122 Yep! I was agreed, I'll keep in touch to your blog.

Posted by: The Ice Limit AudioBook at August 31, 2011 07:20 PM (qhonK)

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