September 14, 2011
— Ace To save time, I will just say he includes a lot of caveats. And they're not fake caveats; they're real this-may-not-mean-anything caveats.
The Republican Mark Amodei, however, leads by 22 points as of this writing, an easy victory, meaning that he overperformed the P.V.I. [Partisan Voter Index, aka, Party advantage] by 12 points.Meanwhile, Mr. TurnerÂ’s winning margin in the New York district, 8 percentage points as of this writing, represents a 18-point G.O.P. swing from the P.V.I.-projected results.
[Then add in Democrats overperforming in NY-23 by 17 points, but Republicans overperforming in that California race we lost, but not by all that much.]
... Republicans have overperformed the P.V.I. baseline by an average of 7 percentage points across the four races. That squares with what we saw in 2010, when Republicans won the popular vote for the House by an aggregate of 7 percentage points.
In other words, the four special elections, taken as a whole, suggest that Democrats may still be locked in a 2010-type political environment.
This, he says, probably wouldn't mean too many Republican pick-ups, as we've picked up most of the ones we can realistically grab. (But there is that cute scientist woman in Arizona who deserves a seat...)
But the real problem comes in Senate races. The Democrats have, once again, twice as many senators up for reelection than we do, and on top of that, they have a lot of blue senators in red states up for reelection.
He concludes:
Based on multiple regressions of the data, the evidence is suggestive, if not yet conclusive: President Obama is a stuttering clusterf*** of a miserable failure.
Okay, he didn't conclude that. But let's not split hairs.
Posted by: Ace at
06:04 AM
| Comments (84)
Post contains 278 words, total size 2 kb.
Posted by: phoenixgirl at September 14, 2011 06:07 AM (eOXTH)
This is the kind of trenchant political analysis that I find invaluable: recognition of what is most important in our political choices!
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative)) at September 14, 2011 06:08 AM (LH6ir)
Of course, what we really need is movement in the Senate and the White House. I hope after this period of "vetting" Rick Perry, the POTUS candidates can settle down and stick to selling themselves as better alternatives to the SCOAMF.
Posted by: Y-not at September 14, 2011 06:08 AM (5H6zj)
Not to worry, Ace. I'm absolutely certain that we'll nominate plenty of unemployed marketing consultants who oppose Gardasil on mental retardation grounds to "punish the establishment" and keep those races off the table.
Posted by: Lou at September 14, 2011 06:08 AM (0F3ej)
Posted by: Grey Fox at September 14, 2011 06:08 AM (nEMLy)
The rule book has gone out of the window. Three years of Obama has done what we thought impossible: people are realizing that the Democratic Party is nothing but a gigantic criminal enterprise devoted to looting the country and the taxpayers.
ALL Democrat seats are now "in play."
Posted by: Trimegistus at September 14, 2011 06:09 AM (/7xxR)
Posted by: Grey Fox at September 14, 2011 10:08 AM (nEMLy)
A billboard with the word 'hope' on it and the 'miss me yet' stamped in the corner
Posted by: Red Shirt at September 14, 2011 06:10 AM (FIDMq)
Posted by: sven10077 at September 14, 2011 06:10 AM (hbf8D)
Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at September 14, 2011 06:10 AM (ZDUD4)
The DNC has a new numeric computer model (designed by Al Gore) that predicts the expected voting results very accurately.
The latest runs keep coming up with a very strong prediction that the 2012 election contest in all races for Democrats will be a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure.
Posted by: Roy at September 14, 2011 06:11 AM (VndSC)
And I can't wait for a solid conservative to replace Kay Bailey in 2013. That will be quite refreshing.
Unfortunately, we have to wait until '14 to get rid of Cornyn...
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at September 14, 2011 06:11 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: Sub-Tard at September 14, 2011 06:11 AM (0M3AQ)
Posted by: The Chicken at September 14, 2011 06:11 AM (j5CHE)
Look, we all know NY-9 is and has always been a deep red district so it doesn't really count as a loss.
Posted by: Debbie Washedup-Shitforbrains at September 14, 2011 06:12 AM (nxptv)
Posted by: Hadji the Muslim Comic at September 14, 2011 06:13 AM (h6mPj)
You people are insane.
Posted by: Lucy'sRabbit (NJProgressive) at September 14, 2011 06:14 AM (LH6ir)
Posted by: phoenixgirl at September 14, 2011 06:14 AM (eOXTH)
Posted by: FireHorse at September 14, 2011 06:14 AM (F5OMl)
Posted by: phoenixgirl at September 14, 2011 10:14 AM (eOXTH)
Wait...she actually said that?!
Posted by: Tami at September 14, 2011 06:16 AM (X6akg)
Posted by: Ben at September 14, 2011 06:16 AM (wuv1c)
President Obama is a stuttering clusterf*** of a miserable failure.
Consider yourself reported citizen. Vee are vatching your every move with greeeaaaaat interest.
Posted by: AttackWatch for SCOAMF at September 14, 2011 06:16 AM (nxptv)
Posted by: marie at September 14, 2011 06:16 AM (W7Seu)
Posted by: dagny at September 14, 2011 06:16 AM (JeSIQ)
Ace, thank you for all you do and for helping flame the wiener roast. Love ya and love all morons and 'ettes.
This is just a small taste of how we will feel once he is defeated in 2012. I can't get this smile off my face since I woke up to the news of the GOP wins.
Posted by: ChristyBlinky at September 14, 2011 06:18 AM (baL2B)
(But there is that cute scientist woman in Arizona who deserves a seat...)
Sarah Palin is a scientist???
Posted by: Elize Nayden at September 14, 2011 06:19 AM (v49dF)
You need more coffee, CBD. That one was weak.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at September 14, 2011 06:20 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: FRONT TOWARD LEFT at September 14, 2011 06:20 AM (cbyrC)
Posted by: phoenixgirl at September 14, 2011 06:20 AM (eOXTH)
Posted by: FRONT TOWARD LEFT at September 14, 2011 06:20 AM (cbyrC)
Realistically, the Jews who seem to be first in line to drink the progressive Kool-Aid are not real Jews. Their great grandparents were socialists, there grandparents were communists, their parents were liberals and they have embraced their new religion with a messianic fervor that would be terrifying if it weren't so laughably stupid.
The real Jews are what many call "Modern Orthodox."
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative)) at September 14, 2011 06:23 AM (LH6ir)
Posted by: JackStraw at September 14, 2011 06:23 AM (TMB3S)
Posted by: jeannebodine, sum b*tch at September 14, 2011 06:23 AM (nvlAW)
I haven't read the Silver post, yet, but did he mention the effects of re-districting?
Posted by: mrp at September 14, 2011 06:24 AM (HjPtV)
I'm not sure how much that would sway voters. I don't think it helped Weprin's Grade Stupid that Weiner supported him, but don't think people voted against him just because he was running to replace Weiner.
Even the ABC correspondent I heard today was saying that, straight up, people voted R because they were upset with Obama's economic policies and stance on Israel. The media isn't even trying to pretend to believe the crap coming out of the mouth of DWS.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at September 14, 2011 06:24 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: Captain Hate at September 14, 2011 06:24 AM (RKzwg)
Sarah Palin is a scientist???
Sarah was a scientist,
Sarah is no more;
For what she thought was H20
Was H2SO4.
Posted by: FireHorse at September 14, 2011 06:25 AM (F5OMl)
Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at September 14, 2011 06:25 AM (ZDUD4)
Posted by: Captain Hate at September 14, 2011 06:26 AM (RKzwg)
Posted by: jeannebodine, sum b*tch at September 14, 2011 06:27 AM (nvlAW)
Posted by: mrp at September 14, 2011 06:27 AM (HjPtV)
My apologies. I'll go sniff some glue, bang my head against a wall and smoke a bowl. That should prepare my critical thinking faculties for a progressive rant.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative)) at September 14, 2011 06:28 AM (LH6ir)
Posted by: Hadji the Muslim Comic at September 14, 2011 06:28 AM (h6mPj)
My friends and I shed our differences of opinions and decided to do this one thing for NY, and drag Turner over the line.
You can thank me now.
Posted by: willow at September 14, 2011 06:28 AM (h+qn8)
Posted by: sven10077 at September 14, 2011 06:29 AM (hbf8D)
Debbie WhatsHerName Stupid thinks that NY-9 is a difficult district for dems to win? NY-9 has been in democrat hands for the last 91 years according to pundits I heard this am on the radio.
Also the Obama Jobs Bill contains language that makes being unemployed a protected class. So if you are unemployed, apply for a job, and don't get hired, you can sue!!!! Because you were discriminated against!! So it really is a Jobs Bill, for lawyers anyway.
Posted by: Boots at September 14, 2011 06:29 AM (neKzn)
Posted by: willow at September 14, 2011 06:30 AM (h+qn8)
Posted by: chillin the most for Perry at September 14, 2011 06:30 AM (6IV8T)
Posted by: JackStraw at September 14, 2011 10:23 AM (TMB3S)
Yeah no kidding. Which is why the ubiquitous Rodney King-esque poster that pops up in every primary thread is quite puzzling to me.
"Why can't we just get along guys? Obama is a SCOAMF!"
Yes, I heard water is dihydrogen monoxide as well.
Posted by: Yoshi, Aggrieved Victim of the White Man at September 14, 2011 06:30 AM (of0xp)
Posted by: alexthedude at September 14, 2011 06:31 AM (3L0Bq)
LOL - good one.
Posted by: Sub-Tard at September 14, 2011 06:32 AM (0M3AQ)
Posted by: Curmudgeon at September 14, 2011 06:34 AM (ujg0T)
Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at September 14, 2011 06:34 AM (ZDUD4)
Posted by: FRONT TOWARD LEFT at September 14, 2011 06:35 AM (cbyrC)
If you're trying to avoid real work for a bit, search twitter for #attackwatch and laugh your ass off at the comments. My fave so far:
Orwell's 1984 was a warning, not a how to guide.
Posted by: Ms Choksondik at September 14, 2011 06:35 AM (nxptv)
Posted by: Fritz at September 14, 2011 06:35 AM (/ZZCn)
Realistically, the Jews who seem to be first in line to drink the progressive Kool-Aid are not real Jews. Their great grandparents were socialists, there grandparents were communists, their parents were liberals and they have embraced their new religion with a messianic fervor that would be terrifying if it weren't so laughably stupid.
The real Jews are what many call "Modern Orthodox."
I wonder if more of them have sold their souls to Marx than died in WWII. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz is a prime example.
Posted by: dagny at September 14, 2011 06:36 AM (JeSIQ)
Posted by: Countrysquire at September 14, 2011 06:38 AM (1hLHC)
Posted by: Mister Christopher at September 14, 2011 06:40 AM (cjGZv)
This morning I've moved the odds of Obama not running for re-election or facing a serious primary candidate from 10-1 to 5-1.
But whom might that primary challenger be?
So long as the African American vote breaks 90/10, I doubt it.
Sensible Democrats (there are some left) might be disgusted, but the race-Commiecrat faction and the decadent-Commiecrat faction would never leave their Obamessiah and will punish any who suggest otherwise.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at September 14, 2011 06:45 AM (ujg0T)
Posted by: yinzer at September 14, 2011 06:46 AM (/Mla1)
Pics or she doesn't exist.
(has it been mentioned that Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure?)
Posted by: Xoxotl at September 14, 2011 06:47 AM (3AOLv)
Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at September 14, 2011 06:54 AM (ZDUD4)
Posted by: CAC at September 14, 2011 06:56 AM (JEVge)
Posted by: Jean at September 14, 2011 10:56 AM (WkuV6)"
That tends to happen when there are traitors in the party leadership.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at September 14, 2011 06:58 AM (ujg0T)
Posted by: arminius at September 14, 2011 07:08 AM (wYNHS)
I still can't help but think that the media is loving this, because it sets them up for the Big Obama Comeback Story.
Which is why 2012 must make 2010 look small.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at September 14, 2011 07:10 AM (ujg0T)
So long as the African American vote breaks 90/10, I doubt it.
Sensible Democrats (there are some left) might be disgusted, but the race-Commiecrat faction and the decadent-Commiecrat faction would never leave their Obamessiah and will punish any who suggest otherwise.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at September 14, 2011 10:45 AM (ujg0T)
I have a feeling that democrats will have a hard time for years to come getting the turnout to win the presidency without a black candidate, yet this particular candidate is poison, so they are boned.
Posted by: Vashta Nerada at September 14, 2011 07:19 AM (ItDg4)
Here's the thing: For 30 years, since the end of the Carter Recession, the left and the Democratic Party have been shouting and fear-mongering every election that we must have these "social safety nets" in case of the hard times (that are always part of a Republican administration). And people kinda believed them, "sure, times are good now, we can afford to set a bit aside and help those in need." But now, the oft-predicted-yet-never-materialized hard times are here and there ain't jack-diddly-shit for those who paid and paid over the years.
Think about it: You paid your dues, did what you were told, worked hard and were told that for a little extra taxes, if you ever fell on hard times, all these great social programs you were paying for would be there when you needed them. And now you are out of a job and the same party that promised they'd be there for you when you needed them is out there saying they need half-a-trillion dollars more and then they might can help you.
"Fuck that," is the attitude, "You guys are trying to sell me ice cream when I can't even afford to put a loaf of bread on the table."
Posted by: Jimmuy at September 14, 2011 07:29 AM (2BZHK)
I have a feeling that democrats will have a hard time for years to come getting the turnout to win the presidency without a black candidate, yet this particular candidate is poison, so they are boned.
I wonder if Toni Morrisson and the gang will try to have an "honorary black president" again.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at September 14, 2011 07:35 AM (ujg0T)
Posted by: N.Y. Legislature working on eliminating NY District-9 at September 14, 2011 07:45 AM (sOwyO)
Posted by: N.Y. Legislature working on eliminating NY District-9
True, that.
Still, one less Commiecrat is one less Commiecrat.
If we could just get national voter ID and stop counting illegal aliens in the Census, we could remove at least four sitting Commiecrats in California.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at September 14, 2011 08:05 AM (ujg0T)
For 6 months after Obama was elected, all I heard from punditry was "how I needed to be 'less conservative' to have my views heard" and how "conservatism was dead in America."
I hate to be vulgar (OK, no I don't), but to them I say, "Fuck you until you die bleeding out the eyes you prejudiced, smarmy, condescending, arrogant, elitist bastards." Nothing the left has proposed has worked. The entire exercise is an abject failure and everyone paying attention knows it.
The pendulum has swung. Suck it, bitches.
Posted by: Richard (Don't call me Dick) Cheney at September 14, 2011 08:48 AM (pVvkk)
Posted by: steevy at September 14, 2011 01:12 PM (fyOgS)
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Posted by: Sub-Tard at September 14, 2011 06:07 AM (0M3AQ)