June 29, 2011
— Ace Even the slowest boat eventually crosses the river.
Nerves Show on Team Obama
Recent scrambling by the presidentÂ’s political advisers indicates theyÂ’re very worried about his reelection chances.
Honestly, I love the headline, but the tea-leaves offered up aren't great. This one's okay:
4. Raising the stakes in the upper South. ObamaÂ’s strategists are raising the stakes in the two battleground upper South states, North Carolina and Virginia.TheyÂ’ve never been critical cogs in a presidential strategy. If Team Obama sees them as such in 2012, it suggests the campaign is struggling in states that were comfortably on its side in 2008, particularly those in the Rust Belt.
But of course he'd go after any state he previously won. Fundraising problems aside (that's point 3), he's going to have as much money to field a campaign as anyone in history.
...except, perhaps, for his challenger.
You know who might not be hitting the kitty too hard? "New York Money Men," as General Wesley Clarke terms Jewish people.
Some of these traditional Democrats now say, to their own astonishment, that they’ll consider voting for a Republican in 2012. And many of those who continue to support Obama said they find themselves constantly on the defensive in conversations with friends.“I’m hearing a tremendous amount of skittishness from pro-Israel voters who voted for Obama and now are questioning whether they did the right thing or not,” said Betsy Sheerr, the former head of an abortion-rights-supporting, pro-Israel PAC in Philadelphia, who said she continues to support Obama, with only mild reservations. “I’m hearing a lot of ‘Oh, if we’d only elected Hillary instead.’”
Well, every two years we hear this and every two years it's about the same 75-80% voting Democratic.
It's messhugeneh.
Posted by: Ace at
04:02 PM
| Comments (118)
Post contains 306 words, total size 2 kb.
No, I'm not seeing the evidence that they're worried. Are they worried? Probably. Are they blaming themselves? Absolutely not. Do they have a Super-Secret-Strategy worked out to win?
Probably no different than we've all been guessing at.
Like, start a war in October, or find more dead people to vote, or just outspend the Republican 20-1 with offshore donations.
Maybe the DREAM act by XO will do it. I dunno.
Posted by: Truman North at June 29, 2011 04:07 PM (K2wpv)
Posted by: Cheri at June 29, 2011 04:07 PM (BA8k3)
Posted by: That's Mr. Jehovah To You! at June 29, 2011 04:08 PM (QgAFR)
It'll be a matter of 5 or 10 percentage points in the Jewish vote, but a lot more in terms of donations not made to Team Obama.
Posted by: stuiec at June 29, 2011 04:08 PM (ZPwZl)
It's messhugeneh.
My aunts and uncles in Queens are off the Kool-Aid...same with my friends in the Dem party of NJ.
Maybe he'll only carry 65% this time?
Posted by: garrett at June 29, 2011 04:08 PM (587xB)
Posted by: Cherry π at June 29, 2011 04:08 PM (OhYCU)
Funny. Betsy Sheer is hearing that the rank and file would rather be trying to re-elect Hillary.
If the Democrats had an honest primary/caucus process without all the superdelegates making the real decisions, they would have nominated her in the first place.
Posted by: Truman North at June 29, 2011 04:09 PM (K2wpv)
Posted by: RoadRunner at June 29, 2011 04:10 PM (oJln5)
Posted by: Stateless Infidel at June 29, 2011 04:10 PM (GKQDR)
Posted by: garrett at June 29, 2011 04:13 PM (587xB)
Posted by: Dave in Fla at June 29, 2011 04:13 PM (AIhVm)
Hell... if the MSM had honestly reported on Reverend Wright, Bill Ayers, Tony Rezko -and- spilled the beans on Edwards..... Hillary would have run thru most of the primaries unopposed.
Posted by: fixerupper at June 29, 2011 04:13 PM (ffV1/)
...except, perhaps, for his challenger.
Good to see Ace is finally on the Romney train. Even the slowest of the slowest boats eventually cross the river.
Posted by: Sam Hall at June 29, 2011 04:13 PM (OAzB1)
Same thing goes for "Big Business", such as banking and Wall Street, which have gotten raked over the coals by him since he was elected. Business execs who supported him and attended fundraisers for him in 2007 and 2008 aren't attending anymore because they don't want to be seen as openly supporting a president who is very unpopular with their peers.
Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at June 29, 2011 04:14 PM (b8JnP)
Posted by: That's Mr. Jehovah To You! at June 29, 2011 04:14 PM (QgAFR)
>>>Well, every two years we hear this and every two years it's about the same 75-80% voting Democratic.
Exactly right. Just a little dezinformatsia here.
I'll buy this when I see his 2d quarter 2012 campaign financials.
Posted by: Sean Bannion at June 29, 2011 04:15 PM (HZrgB)
Posted by: Rex Harrison's Hat at June 29, 2011 04:15 PM (FZclg)
...but the older of his two little punishments, Malaria, ain't thirteen
He did guess right on little Sushi's age though
Posted by: beedubya at June 29, 2011 04:16 PM (AnTyA)
There will be no way to say it's a well intentioned mistake. It will be treason plain and simple.
Posted by: ontherocks at June 29, 2011 04:16 PM (HBqDo)
Posted by: ABC News, NBC News, CBS News at June 29, 2011 04:17 PM (0fzsA)
Posted by: ragetrain at June 29, 2011 04:18 PM (RckGE)
He did guess right on little Sushi's age though
Posted by: beedubya at June 29, 2011 08:16 PM (AnTyA)
You'd think he'd remember whether she'd been Bat Mitzvah'd or not.
Posted by: stuiec at June 29, 2011 04:18 PM (ZPwZl)
Third party worries me, too.
I could see Huntsman going in. I could definitely see Trump going in.
Or... I could see the GOP nominating a squish, and the TEA movement sending in someone.
Posted by: Truman North at June 29, 2011 04:18 PM (K2wpv)
Is that Yiddish for "Are you a flake?".
Posted by: YIKES! at June 29, 2011 08:15 PM (6B+2e)
Pretty much. "Meshuggeneh" is "insane" or "crazy."
Posted by: stuiec at June 29, 2011 04:20 PM (ZPwZl)
K, I'm gonna do it. I'm gonna ask a really dumb question. How are the internals determined, who determines them and why would they be so different from, say, Rass or Gallup?
Posted by: Lady in Black at June 29, 2011 04:21 PM (kOtPb)
Posted by: Rex Harrison's Hat at June 29, 2011 04:21 PM (FZclg)
Posted by: Palerider at June 29, 2011 04:22 PM (dkExz)
Posted by: Steve O at June 29, 2011 04:22 PM (ZSXRh)
Or... I could see the GOP nominating a squish, and the TEA movement sending in someone.
Posted by: Truman North at June 29, 2011 08:18 PM (K2wpv)
Oddly, the Rasmussen polling says that the TEA Party folks are the most likely to stick with the GOP candidate regardless of who it is. Republican moderates are more likely than TEA Partiers to consider voting third party.
Eighty-three percent (83%) of primary voters say they will vote for the Republican candidate even if their favorite does not capture the partyÂ’s presidential nomination. Seven percent (7%) will vote for Obama if that happens, while five percent (5%) will go for a third-party candidate.
Perhaps surprisingly, Tea Party members are more committed to supporting the GOP candidate than other Republicans. Among GOP primary voters who are Tea Party members, 92% will vote for the Republican candidate even if their favorite falls short of the nomination. Among non-Tea Party members, only 78% are that committed to the Republican candidate.
Ninety-three percent (93%) of Tea Party members think any of the GOP candidates would make a better president than Obama, a view shared by just 66% of non-members.
Posted by: stuiec at June 29, 2011 04:24 PM (ZPwZl)
Lady: The national polling data we see reported is sort of a consumer product-- like the difference between a nice jacket from Sears and the shit they use to climb Mt Everest.
It's just stuff to fill the news hole.
If a politician wants good polling, they go to people on the ground in each state, and sometimes, people who speialize in a particular district, who have the best and most-current lists, and call the people who matter, and ask them dozens if not hundreds of questions.
The stuff we get is junk. It's cotton candy. No better than wishcasting.
Posted by: Truman North at June 29, 2011 04:24 PM (K2wpv)
Jewish Democrats won't desert Obama. Most of them are secular, so they've replaced their religion with their Democratic politics. Their ancestors were all Democrats; it's part of their identity. They also hate Republicans. They hate Republicans more than they hate Islamic terrorists. Why? Because their ancestors did, too.
Notice that the press and blacks haven't deserted Obama, even though he abuses them and takes them for granted the way he does Jewish Democrats. The press, Jews, and blacks are the most reliable Democratic voters. Most of them could never even conceive of voting for a Republican, even if he were more leftist than Obama.
The smartest, funniest, sexiest women I ever met was a Jew who always voted Democrat even though she pretty much agreed with me on everything and opposed most of what the Democrats stood for. I think a kind of superficial, cultural guilt has a lot to do with it. She was fabulously wealthy; I used to tell her to give me all her money if it made her feel bad and do insane things like vote for Democrats.
She never had a response.
Posted by: Llarry at June 29, 2011 04:25 PM (SI/pw)
Posted by: The Q at June 29, 2011 04:25 PM (NdE8F)
I'd be thrilled to pieces to have a newly minted President Romney in 2013.
Obama must go. I don't care who replaces him.
Posted by: soothsayer at June 29, 2011 04:27 PM (7lPnF)
This:
Americans planning to breach Israel's blockade of Gaza by participating in the upcoming flotilla should be prosecuted through "all available legal remedies," Texas Governor Rick Perry said in a letter he sent to US Attorney General Eric Holder on Tuesday.
Perry stressed in the letter that the "acts of funding, supporting, organizing and engaging in [flotilla] efforts appears to constitute: participation in a naval expedition against a people with whom the United States is at peace; the furnishing of a vessel with the intent that it be employed to commit hostilities against a people with whom the United States is at peace; and the provision of material support or resources to a foreign terrorist organization."
Posted by: stuiec at June 29, 2011 04:27 PM (ZPwZl)
Posted by: CoolCzech at June 29, 2011 04:28 PM (kUaEF)
Posted by: Truman North at June 29, 2011 04:29 PM (K2wpv)
My wish list for 2012:
Obama defeated.
GOP Senate
GOP retains House
McConnell ousted as leader for Jim Demint
two new Justices
and a partridge in a pear tree
Posted by: soothsayer at June 29, 2011 04:29 PM (ke9KO)
Posted by: That's Mr. Jehovah To You! at June 29, 2011 04:29 PM (QgAFR)
Posted by: volfan at June 29, 2011 04:30 PM (Wv02x)
Posted by: That's Mr. Jehovah To You! at June 29, 2011 04:32 PM (QgAFR)
Obama!
Posted by: The Q at June 29, 2011 04:33 PM (NdE8F)
Posted by: Llarry at June 29, 2011 08:25 PM (SI/pw)
People like that make me go all drunk-or-stroked one-eye-blinking-uncontrollably.
I not only don't "get it," I aggressively don't get it, and it messes with my Zen thing.
On the other hand, I imagine that's what they must be like all the time. A little reality disconnect.
Posted by: Merovign, Dark Lord of the Sith at June 29, 2011 04:33 PM (bxiXv)
They were not supposed to say this. You know what happens when the army knows the war is lost? They crop their guns and scatter.
They were not supposed to say this.
Posted by: AmishDude at June 29, 2011 04:33 PM (73tyQ)
what are you talking about, Willis?
Obama lowered the price of gas over forty cents in the last 6 weeks!
(You like that accounting? Obama gets credit for all gas price decreases, but no blame for all the gas price increases.)
Posted by: soothsayer at June 29, 2011 04:33 PM (KpRxj)
Posted by: BlackOrchid at June 29, 2011 04:34 PM (SB0V2)
Obama is too busy for "net" totals.
Obama is all about results. Positive results, that is.
All that negative shit is for Republicans.
Posted by: soothsayer at June 29, 2011 04:36 PM (/OSN/)
Posted by: That's Mr. Jehovah To You! at June 29, 2011 08:32 PM (QgAFR)
As opposed to powerful Democrats doing everything they can to exclude, marginalize, and even de-nation Jews now?
Yeah, I can totally see that.
Posted by: Merovign, Dark Lord of the Sith at June 29, 2011 04:38 PM (bxiXv)
Posted by: Pecos Bill at June 29, 2011 04:40 PM (j84s0)
Posted by: That's Mr. Jehovah To You! at June 29, 2011 04:42 PM (QgAFR)
SB 5 needed 213,000 votes to get on the Nov. ballot. The degenerate union pigfilth collected 1.3 signatures.
Posted by: laceyunderalls at June 29, 2011 04:43 PM (hYl4e)
Oddly, the Rasmussen polling says that the TEA Party folks are the most likely to stick with the GOP candidate regardless of who it is. Republican moderates are more likely than TEA Partiers to consider voting third party.
Man if that just doesn't put a dent in a bunch of jackasses talking points.
Posted by: buzzion at June 29, 2011 04:44 PM (oVQFe)
Posted by: King Barky The First at June 29, 2011 04:46 PM (ENKCw)
I must be slipping. I read the piece today when at the nursing home, where my wife is sitting a final watch on her dying father. I thought for sure the cover of the mag in the reading room said 2004, but when doing the search for it in the Harper's archives online, it seems to be from August of 2008.
In any event, Frank, who used to write The Tilting Yard column in the WSJ, lays out all the talking points we are seeing in the JEF's campaign now.
Today's presser was an opening salvo, and it will be a nasty war.
Who can the Rs have for their general in this fight, one who cannot be tarred with the shit Obama will be throwing, one who can convince enough of the squishy center so that we get to 51 instead of them?
Posted by: I'm in a New York state of mind at June 29, 2011 04:47 PM (4sQwu)
Posted by: Fake Ace at June 29, 2011 04:47 PM (lT0LC)
My credit card is standing by!
Posted by: Doodad Pro at June 29, 2011 04:48 PM (bgcml)
Oddly, the Rasmussen polling says that the TEA Party folks are the most likely to stick with the GOP candidate regardless of who it is. Republican moderates are more likely than TEA Partiers to consider voting third party.
Party Unity! At least until I jump ship.
Posted by: Jim Jeffords, Dede Scuzz..., Charlie Crist, etc... at June 29, 2011 04:50 PM (bgcml)
It has a catchy beat. I can dance to it.
Posted by: toby928™ at June 29, 2011 04:51 PM (GTbGH)
Posted by: barack "gutsy-call" obama at June 29, 2011 04:52 PM (GTbGH)
Thanks fer 'splainin, Truman. Makes more sense now.
Posted by: Lady in Black at June 29, 2011 04:52 PM (kOtPb)
If you offered me Romney as prez today vs. chancing the general in 2012, I'd take Mittens with no qualms. 2012 has huge potential upside, but the dem-msm complex will lie, cheat and steal as needed to avoid the will of the people, if our side can actually persuade >50% that they should vote for the (R).
He may not be "our" guy, but he's better than theirs.
Posted by: StPatrick_TN at June 29, 2011 04:55 PM (D+phB)
Posted by: nevergiveup at June 29, 2011 04:58 PM (5jbD3)
How about this?????
Obama Administration Puts Israel on List of Countries that "PROMOTE, PRODUCE, OR PROTECT" TERRORISTS!!
Posted by: CODEKEYGUY at June 29, 2011 04:58 PM (buAn0)
The Democratic political machine in New York excluded Jews, too.
Posted by: Llarry at June 29, 2011 04:58 PM (SI/pw)
Posted by: ParanoidNotWorkingGirlinSeattle at June 29, 2011 04:59 PM (RZ8pf)
Yes. Really.
Now, the REASON for this is because Israel is so surrounded by enemies that it's inevitable that some are going to end up living, working and acting within Israel's borders. That's why Israel is also listed as an "anti-terror partner." But do you really think any of the anti-Israel wingnuts who saturate the left and the media (BIRM) are going to care about that little detail?
No.
Posted by: MWR at June 29, 2011 05:00 PM (CA2NO)
Posted by: steevy at June 29, 2011 05:01 PM (xQfBt)
Posted by: Palerider at June 29, 2011 08:22 PM (dkExz)
No, I don't think so. I think Huntsman IS Anderson. I think HE'S the one planning the third party run.
Posted by: AmishDude at June 29, 2011 05:02 PM (73tyQ)
Nice. I volunteer to chisel his name off all the stelae in my town.
Posted by: that guy that compliments other's obscure cultural references at June 29, 2011 05:03 PM (GTbGH)
Posted by: John F'in Kerry Yachtsman Extraordinairre at June 29, 2011 05:03 PM (Cwo/J)
Well said.
Posted by: Duke Lowell at June 29, 2011 08:56 PM (NSmsb)
Thanks, Duke. It does bother me that the leftards got their ideal candidate last go-round, while we have to contemplate potential squishy nominees, but we don't have a willing and able media, nor a bunch of fools who vote their emotions, to depend on.
Someday, Lord willing, we'll have a true rock-ribbed constitutional conservative as president, but until then, I'll take whoever isn't fully invested in proggy multi-culti statism and active pursuit of class warfare. I intend to help spike the ball in 2012, not take it home if we can't play exactly by my rules.
That said, I'd prefer almost anyone other than Huntsman / Paul / Johnson to Mitt, but even the Paul / Johnson part is negotiable, provided they "evolve" on the trail.
Posted by: StPatrick_TN at June 29, 2011 05:03 PM (D+phB)
As opposed to powerful Democrats doing everything they can to exclude, marginalize, and even de-nation Jews now?
Yeah, I can totally see that.
Posted by: Merovign, Dark Lord of the Sith at June 29, 2011 08:38 PM (bxiXv)
The past is often more comfortable than the present.
Posted by: AmishDude at June 29, 2011 05:03 PM (73tyQ)
Oddly, the Rasmussen polling says that the TEA Party folks are the most likely to stick with the GOP candidate regardless of who it is. Republican moderates are more likely than TEA Partiers to consider voting third party.
Man if that just doesn't put a dent in a bunch of jackasses talking points.
Posted by: buzzion at June 29, 2011 08:44 PM (oVQFe)
David Frum hardest hit.
Posted by: AmishDude at June 29, 2011 05:05 PM (73tyQ)
Posted by: steevy at June 29, 2011 05:07 PM (xQfBt)
Posted by: nevergiveup at June 29, 2011 05:07 PM (5jbD3)
Posted by: King Barky The First at June 29, 2011 05:07 PM (ENKCw)
David Frum hardest hit.
Posted by: AmishDude at June 29, 2011 09:05 PM (73tyQ)
It's well known that TPers often wear denim and rumpled shorts as well. Don't think that David Brooks and George Will are happy, either (even though I like Will, he needs to spend a few minutes in a part of the country where people don't own Nantucket Reds and Docksiders as part of their proper summer wardrobe).
Posted by: StPatrick_TN at June 29, 2011 05:08 PM (D+phB)
You're either the warrior class or you aren't. It's as simple as that. My guess is obama would be off pissing himself should any of those dangerous men come within 30 meters of him.
Posted by: tangonine at June 29, 2011 05:09 PM (x3YFz)
SB 5 needed 213,000 votes to get on the Nov. ballot. The degenerate union pigfilth collected 1.3 signatures.
Posted by: laceyunderalls at June 29, 2011 08:43 PM (hYl4e)
yeah...they're all proud and shit; somehow though I'm really not worried.
Posted by: billygoat at June 29, 2011 05:09 PM (Cwo/J)
Posted by: Cherry π at June 29, 2011 05:09 PM (OhYCU)
He can try it and be consigned to the trash heap of history.
The puff pieces on Huntsman have been actively chipping away at Huntsman's approval within the Republican caucus because people smell a rat. He'll be out of the running as soon as voting gets to states where you don't have Dems rat-fucking the process to pick this idiot.
Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at June 29, 2011 05:10 PM (b8JnP)
Posted by: David Starr at June 29, 2011 05:11 PM (STTZD)
ABO - Anybody But Obama.
/There was a creative one somebody came up with a few weeks ago, but I can't remember it.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at June 29, 2011 05:11 PM (c0A3e)
Posted by: Cherry π at June 29, 2011 05:12 PM (OhYCU)
Posted by: Cherry π at June 29, 2011 09:12 PM (OhYCU)
He should've told his boss to stop the friggin bowing, then. Cover blown, asset has turned. Recommend elimination via primary, use "voters" as cover for operation.
Posted by: StPatrick_TN at June 29, 2011 05:14 PM (D+phB)
Don't know if it means anything, but my Jewish neighbor here in Southwest Florida voted for Obama. He absolutely will NOT do so again.
Posted by: Turd Ferguson at June 29, 2011 05:17 PM (sj4Tq)
Posted by: laceyunderalls at June 29, 2011 08:43 PM (hYl4e)
yeah...they're all proud and shit; somehow though I'm really not worried.
Posted by: billygoat at June 29, 2011 09:09 PM (Cwo/J)
The news was all over that. Somehow, ten percent of whiny union losers filling out a form constitutes a voter mandate.
Uh huh.
Posted by: ErikW at June 29, 2011 05:17 PM (zIQB9)
ABO - Anybody But Obama.
/There was a creative one somebody came up with a few weeks ago, but I can't remember it.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at June 29, 2011 09:11 PM (c0A3e)
My African (oh yeah, he's got the racial edge) Grey parrot, Leo would run and win based on one fact: he wouldn't fuck up the country. He can talk, he's cute, he loves his afternoon scritches and is especially fond of almonds. He doesn't play golf, and he wont waste taxpayer money via vacations, and he won't send his woman (Willow, our other grey) off to Africa on the taxpayers' dime.
Leo for prez!
Posted by: tangonine at June 29, 2011 05:18 PM (x3YFz)
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Posted by: rennee at June 29, 2011 05:31 PM (/YK+e)
You hit the major points on the internals. One addition, they are also based on much higher samples. They can get an excellent read on precinct level support nationwide, and put together their electoral map. They then apply a turnout model, which is almost never pessimistic. They usually will run several models. I'm willing to bet they are showing a loss on all three turnout models.
Ohio, Indiana, and Florida are gone. They need Virginia and North Carolina to try and piece together just barely squeaking over 270. It doesn't help them that the entire state of New Hampshire is now voting in Texas.
(yeah, I'm a poll junky)
Posted by: Dave in Fla at June 29, 2011 05:40 PM (cSkZ5)
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at June 29, 2011 09:11 PM (c0A3e)
ABJEF?
Anybody But JEF!
Posted by: Hrothgar at June 29, 2011 05:43 PM (GmKdo)
Posted by: Overheard at an MTV strategy session at June 29, 2011 05:47 PM (FZclg)
Posted by: Rex's Hat is Oviously Drunk at June 29, 2011 05:48 PM (FZclg)
I'm sure the OPEC nations will line up to donate via Obama's "broken" "secure" funding process, just like in 2008. After all, he hasn't disclosed his money sources so far, why on earth would he start now?
Posted by: BeckoningChasm at June 29, 2011 07:51 PM (/zYUh)
Posted by: sexypig at June 29, 2011 08:08 PM (/PYxE)
That tells you everything you need to know about why these supposed "Jews" in America support Democrats. Anyone who is truly pro-Israel would not advocate killing their own children. The Muslims already out-breed the rest of us through forced female slavery of parallel cousins, and the inbred insanity that comes with it. Why make it easier for them to overrun that last outpost of reason in the entire region? Just so you can take a cumshot it the pussy from a guy you'd never marry?
Get your priorities straight, and then maybe you wouldn't need cheap irresponsible sex to make you feel complete. Maybe, and just maybe, then you might see this president for the pro-Muslim Marxist puppet that he is.
Posted by: 5th Level Fighter at June 29, 2011 08:24 PM (hfWKa)
Posted by: CAPTAIN ALL CAPS at June 29, 2011 08:54 PM (+wxCD)
Drop Kick Him Jesus Through The French Doors of The White House in November 2012.
If you do that, I promise I'll be a good boy.
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Posted by: Case at June 30, 2011 02:21 AM (0K+Kw)
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Posted by: Jerry at June 29, 2011 04:06 PM (587xB)