September 09, 2011
— Ace Sienna poll: Republican Turner leads Weprin Grade Stupid by 6.
("Weprin Grade Stupid" thanks to Gnu Breed. Perfect. This is the guy who had to guess at the size of the nation debt in a New York Daily News interview, and then guessed four trillion.)
Weprin is all-in on Mediscare. It isn't working as well as it needs it to, obviously.
Usually we just look at the Independents but here, in mostly-Democratic New York, a decent candidate could probably get by if he was pulling all of the Democrats. Weprin isn't, though, because there are a lot of Orthodox Jews here, and they're not fans of Obama's Israel policy. Or, I'm assuming, his economic record. Update: And gay marriage. Weprin voted for it as an assemblyman, and that's very unpopular in this district.
PPP is also doing polling. They haven't released the results yet, but their blooger has tweeted about the data as it's coming in:
My pretty straight forward take on the first night of our NY-9 poll: Dems in BIG trouble. It deserves the caps.
Ladd Ehlinger, Jr. produced a viral ad for the contest, posted below.
Thanks to Charles and CAC for the poll tips. Both tipped me last night to PPP, and then CAC tipped me to Siena this morning.
Posted by: Ace at
07:23 AM
| Comments (233)
Post contains 230 words, total size 2 kb.
Posted by: ParisParamus at September 09, 2011 07:30 AM (bN5ZU)
Posted by: ace at September 09, 2011 07:32 AM (nj1bB)
Posted by: ParisParamus at September 09, 2011 07:32 AM (bN5ZU)
Posted by: stuiec at September 09, 2011 07:32 AM (98Xq9)
Posted by: Johnny (John E.) at September 09, 2011 07:32 AM (nRTou)
Posted by: Honey Badger at September 09, 2011 07:33 AM (GvYeG)
Posted by: NotALibertarian at September 09, 2011 07:35 AM (psns8)
Posted by: GnuBreed at September 09, 2011 07:36 AM (ENKCw)
A vote for (any, D, really) Weprin is a vote for Barack Obama.
Not very many people will vote for a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at September 09, 2011 07:37 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: Upper East Side Toast points at September 09, 2011 07:39 AM (NBj0d)
Do. Not. Taunt. Happy. Fun. Alex.
Oh good, President Sham Mao (gleefully stolen for prior thread) is speaking. There goes the rest of my portfolio! Wheeeeee!
Posted by: alexthechick at September 09, 2011 07:40 AM (VtjlW)
Posted by: cherry pi, terrorist hostage taking SOB at September 09, 2011 07:40 AM (OhYCU)
I know "Wrong-Way Weprin" is a stupid thing to call him but it's all I've got.
It seems his name is a mash-up of Wepner (as in Chuck "The Bayonne Bleeder" Wepner) and Pamprin.
Posted by: FireHorse at September 09, 2011 07:41 AM (RZRz9)
Posted by: Michael at September 09, 2011 07:41 AM (SlM0z)
Posted by: dagny at September 09, 2011 07:42 AM (6djgu)
Posted by: beedubya at September 09, 2011 07:42 AM (AnTyA)
Ever notice how, when there was an out-of-cycle, off-year election during the Bush administration, the mainstream media would always view it as a referendum on the President, even if the result was more likely a reflection of local issues or the personalities and abilities of the individual candidates?
Watch what happens Tuesday... if Weprin loses, the same mainstream media will say that he was simply a bad candidate, and that his loss should not reflect badly on the President or his policies.
Posted by: The Regular Guy at September 09, 2011 07:43 AM (qHCyt)
Posted by: SFGoth at September 09, 2011 07:43 AM (dZ756)
Take a look at this: (from the WSJ)
"I think Americans understand justice. I think Americans are clearly, in the vast majority of--of cases, supportive of capital punishment. When you have committed heinous crimes against our citizens--and it's a state-by-state issue, but in the state of Texas, our citizens have made that decision, and they made it clear, and they don't want you to commit those crimes against our citizens. And if you do, you will face the ultimate justice."
And then the Obama transcript here: http://on.wsj.com/pUHO4z (also WSJ)
Can you tell me the difference?
That the first takes note of Rick Perry's (in this case, they do it with other republicans, too) modes of speech (note the "of--of" in the Perry quote) and the second does not once mention an "um," or "uh" from the President? When was the last time we heard a speech from the President without an "um" or "uh?"
I just noticed this in the last couple of days, and I'm trying to decide if this is purposeful (we must show Republicans as less eloquent than the President) or not.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at September 09, 2011 07:43 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: dagny at September 09, 2011 07:43 AM (6djgu)
Posted by: cherry pi, terrorist hostage taking SOB at September 09, 2011 07:43 AM (OhYCU)
Posted by: Penfold at September 09, 2011 07:44 AM (1PeEC)
Posted by: Reno_Dave at September 09, 2011 07:44 AM (OL4L4)
-280 now, per FoxBusiness.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at September 09, 2011 07:44 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: GnuBreed at September 09, 2011 11:34 AM (ENKCw)
simply awesome...that and Sham Mao
Posted by: beedubya at September 09, 2011 07:44 AM (AnTyA)
Posted by: SFGoth at September 09, 2011 07:46 AM (dZ756)
Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at September 09, 2011 07:46 AM (ZDUD4)
Posted by: DarkLord© sez Obama is a stuttering clusterf--- of a miserable failure
Oh, and F--- Nevada! at September 09, 2011 07:47 AM (GBXon)
Posted by: Penfold at September 09, 2011 07:47 AM (1PeEC)
Posted by: SFGoth at September 09, 2011 07:47 AM (dZ756)
Posted by: CBC sporting Maryland football uniforms at September 09, 2011 07:47 AM (U0Qwx)
Hey! That's comedy gold! Don't sell that short! Wakka wakka wakka!
Posted by: 90-Year-Old Catskill Comedian With A Giant Flower In His Lapel at September 09, 2011 07:47 AM (znT2j)
isn't he in virginia today? and he's probably being cheered on by paid union members........anyone remember "we the living" by ayn rand? the commies were forced to march at every govt parade...they didn't know why they were there they didn't care why they were there...they'd rather be anywhere else but they had to go or it would be noticed that they weren't there........and that was worse than marching............
Posted by: phoenixgirl at work s.o.b. barbarian tea party terrorist at September 09, 2011 07:47 AM (IpiZb)
Posted by: I'm in a New York state of mind at September 09, 2011 07:48 AM (4sQwu)
When's the election?
This coming Tuesday, I believe. Will Turner win? Dunno, depends on how many of the folks there are self-hating jooos. Sadly, I think Woeful Weprin will take it.
Posted by: The Ghost of Grace Kelly at September 09, 2011 07:48 AM (8DdAv)
Also, waiting for TOTUS-SCOAMF to say, "I did not engage in crony capitalism with that company, Solyndra."
Posted by: Z as in Jersey at September 09, 2011 07:48 AM (sXUiz)
Posted by: phoenixgirl at work s.o.b. barbarian tea party terrorist at September 09, 2011 07:48 AM (IpiZb)
Posted by: Reno_Dave at September 09, 2011 11:44 AM (OL4L4)
Oh no, that can't be the reason. According the MFM the market tanked because Juergen Stark is quitting the European Central Bank. Now that's spin for you
Posted by: TheQuietMan at September 09, 2011 07:48 AM (1Jaio)
The brothers better keep their grills away from King Obie...
Posted by: The Robot Devil at September 09, 2011 07:49 AM (136wp)
Um, wow. When independants are breaking for the republican at roughly the inverse of the proportion democrats are breaking for the dem... uh... you might be a redneck or something.
That's pretty goddamn bad polling for Welprin.
Posted by: Entropy at September 09, 2011 07:49 AM (IsLT6)
Posted by: Reno_Dave at September 09, 2011 07:49 AM (OL4L4)
Ace, I know Ladd Ehlinger is your friend, and I respect that.
But that ad sucks. And all of his ads, except for the first one, sucked.
The first one focused on the candidate, that Ag Commision guy. The guy with the gun. The "We're Republicans! We're better than that!"
All his later ads seem to be saying "look how clever I, the director am. Look at all my clever directing ideas. Hot Dogs! Dancing Barney! Etc.!"
Is Ladd's heart in the right place? Yes. Has he busted his ass for the cause? Yes.
Still...
Anyway, he's you're friend and that's cool. I hope this ad swings the election. All props and Hoshana's to Ladd.
Posted by: ed at September 09, 2011 07:49 AM (Y2WVW)
if Weprin loses, the same mainstream media will say that he was simply a bad candidate, and that his loss should not reflect badly on the President or his policies.
Hell, if Obama loses the MFM will claim it's due to a temper tantrum by those slope headed mouth breathing troglodyte racist sister humping homophobes and does not reflect badly on the President or his policies.
Posted by: alexthechick at September 09, 2011 07:50 AM (VtjlW)
Posted by: no good deed at September 09, 2011 07:50 AM (mjR67)
Pass we much!
Posted by: Waterhouse at September 09, 2011 07:51 AM (JUzf5)
Posted by: ace at September 09, 2011 07:51 AM (nj1bB)
Posted by: cherry pi, terrorist hostage taking SOB at September 09, 2011 07:51 AM (OhYCU)
Posted by: Team Pelosi at September 09, 2011 07:51 AM (136wp)
Coincidence? Maybe, but the same thing happened yesterday when Bernanke began to speak.
Someone on twitter last night was baiting Breitbart (hi Andrew!) about how the Euro futures were up and obvs the market loved the speech and ahahaha loser. I was all yeah we'll just be seeing about that won't we.
Posted by: alexthechick at September 09, 2011 07:52 AM (VtjlW)
Please let him do that. Weprin Grade Stupid would lose by 10. It would be awesome.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at September 09, 2011 07:53 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: joncelli at September 09, 2011 07:53 AM (RD7QR)
Fuck the plate, where's my mortgage payment?
If you act now, we'll double your order! That's two mortgage payments, two fill-ups at the gas station, and the commemorative plate, absolutely free!
(Enter promo code SCOAMF for your bonus mystery prize!)
Posted by: FireHorse at September 09, 2011 07:53 AM (RZRz9)
Posted by: ace at September 09, 2011 07:54 AM (nj1bB)
Posted by: The terrorist Hobbit formerly known as Donna at September 09, 2011 07:54 AM (zgEs1)
Posted by: joncelli at September 09, 2011 07:54 AM (RD7QR)
Hmm... preference cascade?
Posted by: Johnny (John E.) at September 09, 2011 07:54 AM (nRTou)
Ich bin Schnappi, das kleine Krokodil Komm aus Ägypten, das liegt direkt am Nil Zuerst lag ich in einem Ei dann schni, schna, snappte ich mich frei Schni Schna Schnappi Schnappi Schnappi Schnapp Schni Schna Schnappi Schnappi Schnappi Schnapp
Posted by: The Robot Devil, gefälschte Nazi at September 09, 2011 07:54 AM (136wp)
Posted by: ace at September 09, 2011 07:54 AM (nj1bB)
Posted by: Penfold at September 09, 2011 07:55 AM (1PeEC)
Seriously. The official musician of this Administration should be Willie Nelson.
Also: Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at September 09, 2011 07:56 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: Reno_Dave at September 09, 2011 07:56 AM (OL4L4)
Posted by: joncelli at September 09, 2011 07:56 AM (RD7QR)
"I don't fall into the special elections mean nothing camp. If GOP wins NY-9 4 months after losing NY-26 it's a sign of big shift in climate"
Posted by: Quilly Mammoth at September 09, 2011 07:56 AM (OGSar)
Posted by: Jean at September 09, 2011 07:57 AM (WkuV6)
According the MFM the market tanked because Juergen Stark is quitting the European Central Bank.
Is that the guy who's doing it with Molly Ringwald?
Posted by: FireHorse at September 09, 2011 07:57 AM (RZRz9)
For more about her, check out the Green Room.
Posted by: Nicholas III upside down in the 8th circle of hell at September 09, 2011 07:57 AM (EG/p1)
"These dogs ain't kosher" puts it all together.
Damn your black soul, ace, now I'm craving Hebrew Nationals.
Posted by: alexthechick at September 09, 2011 07:57 AM (VtjlW)
SFGoth at September 09, 2011 11:46 AM (dZ756)
What the hell man? Dov is a kick ass name. It sounds like something straight out of "Highlander". Kinda like The Kurgan's middle name or something.
Posted by: ed at September 09, 2011 07:57 AM (Y2WVW)
If only the EVIL Republicans had passed Barry's brilliant plan last night the market would be soaring right now and unemployment would be at 0% and birds would be singing Alleluias and there would be nothing but sunshine and rainbows!!!
Posted by: TheQuietMan at September 09, 2011 07:57 AM (1Jaio)
Zombie John Candy is driving:
tinyurl.com/yg98jdj
Posted by: Jay Carney at September 09, 2011 07:58 AM (136wp)
Dow, S&P down 2% as Friday declines accelerate -
Ahahahahahaha!
Posted by: Reality at September 09, 2011 07:58 AM (c0A3e)
Posted by: Honey Badger at September 09, 2011 07:58 AM (GvYeG)
Posted by:Johnny (John E.)
That was a really good editorial, too. And you're right, the comments were surprising. Wonder when that author will get sent to the camps?
Posted by: Hobbitopoly at September 09, 2011 07:59 AM (h1p5V)
Damn your black soul, ace, now I'm craving Hebrew Nationals.
In my house, those are called Zionist Entity Sausages.
Posted by: FireHorse at September 09, 2011 07:59 AM (RZRz9)
Posted by: MikeTheMoose Camellia Sinensis Operative at September 09, 2011 08:00 AM (0q2P7)
Posted by: t-bird at September 09, 2011 08:00 AM (FcR7P)
You hear the clip of B-Jay Carney saying "party ahead of country?"
We do that every Wagyu Wednesday! Let's see, who's on the guest list for next week's cocktail party?
Posted by: Barry and Michelle at September 09, 2011 08:01 AM (0fUOB)
My parents solved that problem by naming us straight out of the old testament. No problems out our Bnai Mitvahs!
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative)) at September 09, 2011 08:01 AM (LH6ir)
Posted by: MSNBC at September 09, 2011 08:01 AM (YXMo5)
Posted by: Honey Badger at September 09, 2011 08:02 AM (GvYeG)
Posted by: The Ghost of Grace Kelly at September 09, 2011 08:03 AM (8DdAv)
I'm still not convinced that the Dems have forgotten how to steal an election in NYC. I'd be very surprised if the trunk vote wasn't enough to put him over.
Posted by: JEM at September 09, 2011 08:03 AM (o+SC1)
Posted by: Honey Badger at September 09, 2011 08:03 AM (GvYeG)
speaking of subpeonas -- anyone seen the ones from the solar co. raid? are they sealed? has anyone asked?
Ha! Ha! Stupid winger! Those subpeonas from the Solyndra will never see the light of day!
Posted by: Hold-her and Chu at September 09, 2011 08:03 AM (0fUOB)
NY-9: If You're on Team Pelosi, You're Ugly,
Posted by: The Robot Devil at September 09, 2011 08:03 AM (136wp)
Posted by: Adirondack Patriot at September 09, 2011 08:04 AM (iAUf+)
Posted by: Johnny (John E.) at September 09, 2011 08:04 AM (nRTou)
"The president feels, as he said so tonight, we need to put party ahead of country."
-B-Jay Carney
Posted by: Soothsayer at September 09, 2011 08:05 AM (sqkOB)
I liked that ad so much I watched it twice! I thought the gavel was a nice touch, but it should have been bigger (Nancy Pelosi reference, I think--is The Surfing Rabbi from her district?)
Ooh Steyn coming on!
Posted by: Hold-her and Chu at September 09, 2011 08:05 AM (0fUOB)
Someone ask Jay why the White House is sitting on those trade bills. I'm sure it has nothing to do with politics.
Posted by: Miss80sBaby at September 09, 2011 08:05 AM (o2lIv)
Posted by: Honey Badger at September 09, 2011 08:06 AM (GvYeG)
Posted by: Minnie Rodent at September 09, 2011 08:06 AM (S3rrR)
Posted by: dagny at September 09, 2011 08:06 AM (6djgu)
Posted by: Basement dwellers everywhere at September 09, 2011 08:07 AM (RD7QR)
PPP.
Every time I see that, I think it means Princess Protection Program. I swear, I have to stop watching Disney Channel. Not because it's time for me to grow up (that time has long, long ago since passed) but because those promos about eating healthy and exercising just keep coming. They're not so bad, really, but Michelle Obama is wearing the same clothes in every one. Why is that?
What the heck?
Posted by: FireHorse at September 09, 2011 08:08 AM (RZRz9)
Someone ask Jay why the White House is sitting on those trade bills.
/shake shake shake
Form a committee
Posted by: Obama 8-Ball at September 09, 2011 08:08 AM (sqkOB)
Posted by: Honey Badger at September 09, 2011 08:08 AM (GvYeG)
Posted by: John P. Squibob at September 09, 2011 08:09 AM (kqqGm)
Posted by: Z as in Jersey at September 09, 2011 08:10 AM (sXUiz)
ace at September 09, 2011 11:54 AM (nj1bB)
OK, I'll accept that. But for what it is worth, I never watched that first ad on TV. I only watched it, and all of Ladd's subsequent ads on the internet.
I don't have a TV.
(And I apologize for that last sentence, cuz I always think people who say "I don't have a TV" to me sound like preening douchebags.)
Posted by: ed at September 09, 2011 08:10 AM (Y2WVW)
If Palin runs, her security detail will be called Moosead.
Posted by: ParisParamus at September 09, 2011 08:10 AM (bN5ZU)
I took my wife to the doctor yesterday for a checkup and the waiting room had a magazine with Michelle Obama on the cover. I reflexively threw it in the trash without thinking. Totally unlike me. That woman is making me into a bad person.
Posted by: Johnny (John E.) at September 09, 2011 08:10 AM (nRTou)
Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at September 09, 2011 08:12 AM (vQXV2)
Not if it's by 6%. That would be a huge percentage of votes to "find."
Let's say there are 3000 (real) votes cast, and Turner is up by 6% (with 1% going write-in, 3rd party, or whatever).
That gives Turner (2700 * .545) 1472 votes leaving 1228 votes for Weprin.
Now, you could "find" 245 votes (enough for Weprin to win by 1) but that would seem too suspicious even for NYC, so you'd need to "find" enough ballots for Weprin to win with some going to Turner anyway.
If we say that Weprin wins 52% of those (leaving 48% for Turner) and we need, say, a 100 vote margin (so it doesn't look quite so suspicious) we're talking about over 1000 votes (1/3 of the original number cast).
Now, if voter turn-out is higher than that, the absolute number of votes goes even higher.
If it's close (say, 3% or less) then I think they could steal it, but if Turner is really up by 6% on election day, I think that's outside the margin of theft.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at September 09, 2011 08:12 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: Honey Badger at September 09, 2011 08:12 AM (GvYeG)
that's the thing he is erasing the tapes so to speak....
anyone else remember the van jones thing last night when pondering Solyndra?
Van Jones' had a 30 billion dollar "green jobs" slush fund with NO congressional oversight......
it was LITERALLY sunk money in a pool that was there for bambi and van to play with.....
Solyndra is just the tip of the iceberg, barack sold unlimited future graft for a solid billion in donations.
Bank on it.
Proving it is another kettle fish....
Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2011 08:12 AM (AEIYh)
Posted by: runningrn at September 09, 2011 08:12 AM (0fUOB)
Totally unlike me. That woman is making me into a bad person.
That's totally like me. So I'm worse now or unaffected. Worse probably.
Posted by: dagny at September 09, 2011 08:13 AM (6djgu)
I saw that promo and just went ballistic. I picked up the remote and starting punching buttons until it changed channels. My six-year old daughter turned to me and said "What was THAT about?" Maybe I need to calm down a bit...
Posted by: Hobbitopoly at September 09, 2011 08:13 AM (h1p5V)
Posted by: FireHorse at September 09, 2011 08:14 AM (RZRz9)
Posted by: jas at September 09, 2011 08:14 AM (ZM2Bn)
Posted by: phoenixgirl
///
Are you hot and available?
Living in Phoenix, I'm sure she's hot!
Posted by: runningrnAt least during the daytime
Posted by: The Robot Devil at September 09, 2011 08:14 AM (136wp)
Posted by: GnuBreed at September 09, 2011 08:14 AM (ENKCw)
Posted by: cherry pi, terrorist hostage taking SOB at September 09, 2011 08:15 AM (OhYCU)
this may be a good bed for the test run of the amount of SUPER ACORN!
the donks look like they'll need for the EV...
historically they are estimated to be able to game between 3 and 5% with nobody noticing.....
I suspect last cycle back in '08 they gamed 7-9% because they held a lot of the AG spots after we had our bloodbath in '06....
some precincts in Ohio and Indiana were more than 10% over max turnout if you factor in the results of the 2010 census to pop size....so either everyone voted and moved to celebrate or Mick E mouse and DooDad pro did a lot of voting....
Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2011 08:15 AM (AEIYh)
Just because an ad is cheap and shitty doesn't mean it will go viral. Ads that go viral usually give people a good reason to choose to click on it by being entertaining. Does Ehlinger really think shit like this is funny or is this just his idea of what he thinks conservative voters would find funny? Seriously, this hot mess would be an insult to Soupy Sales' sense of refinement.
Posted by: Gristle Encased Head at September 09, 2011 08:15 AM (+lsX1)
Posted by: Honey Badger at September 09, 2011 08:15 AM (GvYeG)
Posted by: SFGoth at September 09, 2011 08:16 AM (dZ756)
Posted by: Hobbitopoly at September 09, 2011 12:13 PM (h1p5V)
I quit taking the Post because I was scaring the children.
Posted by: dagny at September 09, 2011 08:16 AM (6djgu)
Posted by: ace at September 09, 2011 08:16 AM (nj1bB)
that would be the most honest summary....
he is giving LITERALLY the exact same speech just in a different pronoun voice....
funny stuff he doesn't even see that Boehner simply has to pass his 13th jobs bill and dare reid to stall
Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2011 08:16 AM (AEIYh)
Posted by: Red Shirt at September 09, 2011 08:18 AM (FIDMq)
WaPo Dana Milbank sticking up for his boyfriend. He's upset that all the Republicans did last night was laugh during his speech.
Posted by: runningrn at September 09, 2011 08:19 AM (0fUOB)
Posted by: ace at September 09, 2011 08:19 AM (nj1bB)
At least during the daytime
Are you implying that she's a reptile?
Even mammals are subject to heat loss when the plasma ball reaches astronomical sunset.
Posted by: The Robot Devil at September 09, 2011 08:20 AM (136wp)
Posted by: Morbius at September 09, 2011 08:20 AM (1aenQ)
Agreed either you find the ad funny because you're fed up with Weiner's antics or you're not....
the ad is designed to sway reachable fence sitters not deep blue commandos.....
it is a good ad
Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2011 08:20 AM (AEIYh)
54 sfgoth
dov is cool.........
Posted by: phoenixgirl///
Are you hot and available?
Posted by: SFGoth at September 09, 2011 12:12 PM (dZ756)
Heh.
Well, I've never met phoenixgirl, so take this in a spirit of good fun.
Posted by: ed at September 09, 2011 08:22 AM (Y2WVW)
Posted by: IreneFingIrene at September 09, 2011 08:24 AM (JNqU9)
it allows the democrats who are angry at weiner to be the nagging voice expressing the reasons to be angry...higher ue3 even in his district, smaller bonuses etc etc without making the candidate look like the nagging moral busybody.....
it lets the scandal and the reachable dem be the nagger without even realizing it....
that is smart ad work won't win the race alone but may squeeze enough if it is close
Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2011 08:24 AM (AEIYh)
Turner has run before and impressively against Weiner, grabbing 40% of the vote. He just needed another 10, and with the incumbant out and a moron put in as the Democrat, he got what he needed to make this winnable. Sprinkle in several newspaper endorsements, several Democratic endorsements, Orthodox anger over the gay marraige vote, anger over Obama's performance in the district, and a local media MORE focused on the Democrat's screwups than any of Turners (which I know none of right now), and the seat goes from Solid D to lean R in a matter of just weeks.
After the CA-36 bungle, good to see a special election where the Republican actually has everything going for him.
Posted by: CAC at September 09, 2011 08:25 AM (8xUhs)
exactly....
you are not going to sway hardcore doctrinaire democrats, and too hard a message this late may irritate the fence sitters but this ad is a good psychological war ad....
it mocks an already foundering candidate with mocking humor targeted at the tar baby of the district...it is not like HOTDOG! was elected by a huge margin or was mega popular anyway.....
he was Schoomah's grocery Boy
Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2011 08:27 AM (AEIYh)
Posted by: SFGoth at September 09, 2011 12:16 PM (dZ756)
Really? Then let me put it to you this way, cuz...
I'm naming my boy "Dov". And my girls too!
Posted by: ed at September 09, 2011 08:28 AM (Y2WVW)
Posted by: runningrn at September 09, 2011 08:30 AM (0fUOB)
Dancing hotdogs are designed to sway fence sitters? People torn between two candidates will be favorably influenced by campy references to the former office holder? I suppose if these fence sitters are developmentally disabled or in some other way easily distracted, you could be right.
Posted by: Gristle Encased Head at September 09, 2011 08:30 AM (+lsX1)
I live in this district.
Dems have to spend $500-600K to try to save this seat? Nice.
GOP poll shows him 4% ahead? Nice.
Siena poll shows him 6% ahead? Nice.
PPP poll looks terrible for Weprin. Nice.
However, he needs to be "ahead by 8-10%" to win by 2%, i.e., beyond the margin of late votes/recount (cheating).
Posted by: Evan3457 at September 09, 2011 08:30 AM (3Qe6r)
Posted by: runningrn at September 09, 2011 08:33 AM (0fUOB)
Posted by: Chris R, NY-9 resident at September 09, 2011 08:35 AM (hGTfi)
high info voters have either been reached by this point or they haven't....
it is not a bad ad...not pretentious enough to turn off democrats who think they are being browbeaten and uses imagery to remind folks of "why we're here now"...
nah it's good even people with senses of humor vote.
Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2011 08:35 AM (AEIYh)
Posted by: beedubya at September 09, 2011 11:42 AM (AnTyA)
No-Labels! idiots and senile former Eisenhower voters.
Posted by: A Balrog of Morgoth at September 09, 2011 08:36 AM (3zFBF)
Posted by: CAC at September 09, 2011 08:36 AM (8xUhs)
Maybe because Weprin doesn't actually live in the district and said he has no plans to move there.
He really is an idiot.
Posted by: Johnny (John E.) at September 09, 2011 08:37 AM (nRTou)
agreed and thanks for the info...it is what I figured....
we'll get to see what the donks are gambling the fraud threshold is in their areas....and understand that in their precincts that is obama's "+" baseline
Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2011 08:37 AM (AEIYh)
Posted by: ace at September 09, 2011 08:38 AM (nj1bB)
Posted by: Chris R, NY-9 resident at September 09, 2011 08:38 AM (hGTfi)
My favowite pot is when Weiner stroked his weiner on Twitta.
Posted by: Bwany Fwank at September 09, 2011 08:39 AM (A+NDy)
yeah run with that meme newsies...
explain to the people who flipped the House and the Governorships that they are evil and that by golly you have to always do what the donks say or you're Stalin....
the Press and the DNC are killing each other with smothering love
Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2011 08:39 AM (AEIYh)
Thanks Beefy for perserving my extra emphasis. No idea what happened to the original comment when copied from twitter, unless IE is screwing with me again...
Posted by: CAC at September 09, 2011 08:41 AM (8xUhs)
Posted by: Chris R, NY-9 resident at September 09, 2011 08:41 AM (hGTfi)
Posted by: Sub-Tard at September 09, 2011 08:42 AM (0M3AQ)
Posted by: Chris R, NY-9 resident at September 09, 2011 08:42 AM (hGTfi)
exactly....
look moron nation our marching like enraged psychos on Obama's policy while emotionally gratifying and good theater is not swaying....
he is imploding he is like a live action version of the Rocky and bullwinkle "watch me pull a rabbitt out of my hat" gag......
we need to highlight our differences, use humor to reach those fencesitters susceptible to it when we can and show our way is better to finish the sale....
running a cult of personality when that same phenomena is part of why things are where they are is foolish....
we need the best closer who emanates solid patriotism, judgement, and leadership without a Bullhorn where that is not helpful.
Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2011 08:42 AM (AEIYh)
My favorite part of the ad was when the Weiner weiner stroked his bun...
Dawg, I thought that was HAWT!
Posted by: Randy Jackson at September 09, 2011 08:43 AM (0fUOB)
Posted by: Randy Jackson at September 09, 2011 08:51 AM (0fUOB)
Bwhahahah! "I think he's the president of the country. I think he's able to pull the funds for this bill."
(Same dumbass caller on Steyn). Wow! Weprins grade stupid!
Posted by: Randy Jackson at September 09, 2011 08:52 AM (0fUOB)
I can only hope barack runs with that line of attack openly.....
no seriously these are DNC seminar callers...they are a good weapon for us....
Axelrod is slipping
Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2011 08:54 AM (AEIYh)
Yes, exactly. Because nothing on the entertainment spectrum exists between Three's Company and Masterpiece Theater. Between GWAR and Mozart. Between Carrot Top and Carlin.
Come on ace. Would you honestly be pimping these ads if Ehlinger wasn't your friend?
Posted by: Gristle Encased Head at September 09, 2011 08:55 AM (+lsX1)
Posted by: Chris R, NY-9 resident at September 09, 2011 08:56 AM (hGTfi)
no seriously you have what a minute max and usually 15-30 seconds to make your pitch....
the ad cleverly uses a toxic politicians' imagery against his successor...
I get that it is not swaying you, of course it is not like moron nation needs much swaying....the best ads give you permission to sway yourself
Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2011 08:57 AM (AEIYh)
Posted by: Gristle Encased Head at September 09, 2011 12:55 PM (+lsX1)
Have you been to Brooklyn? This is high level stuff. Imagine you're trying to get the attention of Snooky and the Situation, but worse.
Posted by: dagny at September 09, 2011 09:01 AM (ldNd8)
Posted by: Chris R, NY-9 resident at September 09, 2011 12:56 PM (hGTfi)
Exactly; his performance in hijacking that presser was masterful and did it totally at the MFM's insistence. A more impressive tooling is hard to imagine.
Posted by: Captain Hate at September 09, 2011 09:03 AM (RKzwg)
The best ads are persuasive. I just don't see how this ad persuades anyone that is undecided.
Posted by: Gristle Encased Head at September 09, 2011 09:09 AM (+lsX1)
The thing I took away from that ad....was the underlying theme of 'ridiculousness' in staying on the Dem-reservation and voting for the new version of Weiner out of party solidarity.
I don't know if that was intentional..... But it comes through.
Posted by: ConservativeMenAreJustHotter at September 09, 2011 09:09 AM (vKRHm)
Posted by: Chris R, NY-9 resident at September 09, 2011 09:09 AM (hGTfi)
too hard a sell or too much active persuasion can kill a deal too....
this stage of the game it is a better use of energy to gently nudge them not browbeat them or get too complicated....
the high interest voters are set by now you need the low interest ones on the fence at this phase of the ad war
Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2011 09:12 AM (AEIYh)
Posted by: Chris R, NY-9 resident at September 09, 2011 09:13 AM (hGTfi)
226 Chris R
Agreed. Andrew Brietbart deserves props for a lot of things.....this is just one of them.
Some of our best conservative fighters started out as Dems. Like Reagan, Cheney......and Rick Perry.
Posted by: ConservativeMenAreJustHotter at September 09, 2011 09:13 AM (vKRHm)
Posted by: Chris R, NY-9 resident at September 09, 2011 09:15 AM (hGTfi)
someone more creative than me will make a devastating hit if they can find a way to convey to unemployed industrial workers and automakers in a funny way that they have hippies and hikers keeping workers from work but congratulating them on their new moral standing thanks to being underemployed....
maybe a series of 3 ads...
I dunno but that is what we face,
The democrat coalition is inherently unstable and can ONLY survive when the pork cannon is firing on all cylinders.....and we are reaching a point where the mutually exclusive portions of the coalition are running out of room before they hurt each other.
The ONLY people happy right now are the true believer hippie marxists and even they are mad because he is not red enough and there are still wars on.....
we can blown them up this cycle and grab back labor like we did with Reagan I suspect....
we MUST remind the worker that the granola muncher can never be their friend for too long.
Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2011 09:17 AM (AEIYh)
Posted by: Jazz at September 09, 2011 09:18 AM (syGwn)
Watch what happens Tuesday... if Weprin loses,
the same mainstream media will say that he was simply a bad candidate,
and that his loss should not reflect badly on the President or his
policies.
Posted by: The Regular Guy at September 09, 2011 11:43 AM (qHCyt)
Quick, break out the Martha Coakley Big Book O' Excuses!
Posted by: No Whining at September 09, 2011 09:19 AM (0AClR)
Posted by: Chris R, NY-9 resident at September 09, 2011 09:20 AM (hGTfi)
I grew up in liberalism's failure....
the only people who ever offered me a way out were republicans who saw potential....
the donks love you just where you are when you're poor reliant on them literally for the roof over your head and the food you eat.
Posted by: sven10077 at September 09, 2011 09:22 AM (AEIYh)
Posted by: Chris R, NY-9 resident at September 09, 2011 09:29 AM (hGTfi)
Posted by: major major major major at September 09, 2011 09:35 AM (utCAk)
the donks love you just where you are when you're poor reliant on them literally for the roof over your head and the food you eat.
Tell it, sven. And when you're not reliant on them, they try to convince you that you are, right? A guy starts up a business without a dime of grant money or government loans, and these spewers of communist crap tell the entrepreneurs that they wouldn't have a livelihood were it not for the "so-called welfare state" and "so-called socialist programs."
(Of course, actual reliance on them is better for them, but they thrive in make-believe, too.)
Posted by: FireHorse at September 09, 2011 09:38 AM (RZRz9)
238 Sven,
The way that unions have driven jobs away reminds me of those African hunt scenes in movies.....where there are 'beaters' who beat the bushes to drive the target out in the open for the kill.
And it's not just the Unions who are the 'beaters'.....The Dems join them in beating the bushes and driving our jobs out for the kill, or driving them out of our country into the open arms of other countries.
It would be great if someone made a video of the 'Beaters' who drive jobs away..........And then whine about the fact that there are no jobs.
Posted by: ConservativeMenAreJustHotter at September 09, 2011 09:39 AM (vKRHm)
What do you want in the ad? Just reading some doctrine from Hayek?
If it were a truly intellectual ad, it would display text of Hayek doctrine on the screen without insulting the viewer by having it read to him.
But seriously, silly is probably the best way to bring conservative themes to people. Exhibit A: Billy Madison.
Posted by: FireHorse at September 09, 2011 09:45 AM (RZRz9)
Posted by: Adjoran at September 09, 2011 10:11 AM (VfmLu)
Posted by: steevy at September 09, 2011 11:35 AM (fyOgS)
Posted by: torabora at September 09, 2011 11:39 AM (Xx//h)
Posted by: torabora at September 09, 2011 03:39 PM (Xx//h)
Stupid.
Its not like there's only room for one stupid Democrat politician
Posted by: Oldcat at September 09, 2011 12:49 PM (z1N6a)
Posted by: slimming pills at September 14, 2011 12:23 AM (WLKF8)
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Posted by: Harry at September 09, 2011 07:30 AM (Tr6ES)