June 20, 2011
— DrewM The long expected second act to Obama's December, 2009 new Afghanistan speech. Not surprisingly....we're drawingdown.
The president must decide the pace and size of reductions to a 30,000-strong troop escalation which he ordered surged into the conflict in December 2009, a deployment which brought the US garrison to 100,000 soldiers.Some analysts also expect him to chart a clear glidepath of withdrawals which will lead up to the planned assumption of security control of Afghanistan by the country's nascent defense forces in 2014.
Obama will also be expected to explain to Americans that his surge has wrought slow, but significant progress, particularly in southern Afghanistan against the Taliban and foreshadow operations in key eastern districts.
White House officials also say that since Obama came to office, and poured new resources into a war that they say was neglected by the George W. Bush administration, there has been significant progress against Al-Qaeda.
In December 2009, Obama laid out a new war strategy designed to disrupt, dismantle and defeat Al-Qaeda, break the momentum of the Taliban and to offer the Afghan government space to move towards a security takeover.
"We have made significant progress towards achieving those goals," White House spokesman Jay Carney said Monday.
"Obviously, the most sensational and significant data point in that progress, of that progress, is the elimination of Osama bin Laden," he said.
"But there has been enormous progress in disrupting and dismantling al-Qaeda in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region beyond and below Osama bin Laden."
So, we're declaring victory and coming home? Meh, it was always going to be this way. I just hope that there was enough progress in the last year and a half to justify the sacrifice of life and cost.
We went to Afghanistan to capture or kill those responsible for 9/11 and ensure that the country couldn't be the launching point for more attacks. From that stand point, we've probably done as much as we really can. We're not going to be pulling out completely any time, so we'll still be able to kill as many jihadis as possible there and in Pakistan.
If victory is defined as turning Afghanistan into something approaching a normal country...I'm not sure there's much of an appetite in this country for much more of that.
It will be interesting to see how Obama actually frames this in his speech.
Posted by: DrewM at
04:48 PM
| Comments (116)
Post contains 408 words, total size 3 kb.
Ace, I never make the quantity, so couldn't you have a remarked upon?
Posted by: Jack at June 20, 2011 04:30 PM (kCT7A)
When does he announce the drawdown plan for the White House?
Posted by: dogfish at June 20, 2011 08:29 PM (N2yhW)
FIFY.
Posted by: CAC at June 20, 2011 04:30 PM (z3U5n)
Posted by: Tami at June 20, 2011 08:33 PM (X6akg)
This. And don't send my son this winter.
Posted by: Jane D'oh at June 20, 2011 04:37 PM (UOM48)
Posted by: Jane D'oh at June 20, 2011 04:39 PM (UOM48)
Over al-Qaeda, the road to victory is paved with strontium-90, through the ISI's headquarters in Pakistan.
Posted by: Zimriel at June 20, 2011 04:39 PM (+MKxi)
Posted by: Comrade Arthur at June 20, 2011 04:41 PM (KOAYS)
Posted by: steevy at June 20, 2011 04:42 PM (FlgcF)
I'm all for getting out of A-stan. We killed Osama, displaced alqaeda, and delt a blow to the taliban.
Let's get the f out and head home.
I'm of the opinion that nukes will be used in Pakistan sooner or later, if not by us then by India, so it'd be better if our troops weren't in the area when that shit goes down.
Posted by: Ben at June 20, 2011 04:53 PM (DKV43)
Ahem. Just where do you think those drones bombing over Pakistan are based?! In Afghanistan. No Afghan bases, no drone war!
We'll ask India to let us use their bases, I'm sure they'd be amenable to it.
Our future lies with India anyway, not Pakistan.
Posted by: Ben at June 20, 2011 04:54 PM (DKV43)
Barry's all for show for his base.
Posted by: Jane D'oh at June 20, 2011 04:58 PM (UOM48)
Ahem. Just where do you think those drones bombing over Pakistan are based?! In Afghanistan. No Afghan bases, no drone war!
We'll ask India to let us use their bases, I'm sure they'd be amenable to it.
Our future lies with India anyway, not Pakistan.
Thank you, Ben. This.
Posted by: Jane D'oh at June 20, 2011 04:59 PM (UOM48)
Posted by: JEFIC at June 20, 2011 05:06 PM (ZUWaD)
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at June 20, 2011 05:07 PM (r4wIV)
Posted by: Barky of the new Camel Lot at June 20, 2011 05:08 PM (ZUWaD)
Yeah he's going to try to frame the words "we're surrendering the place and running away to award victory to terrorist enemies and leave the place to turn back into Taliban-control again" into something positive. And a lot of alleged conservatives will cheer at soldiers dying for nothing while terrorists cheer at proof that if you last long enough, America will give up.
What's the end game in Afghanistan exactly?
A modern functioning democracy? How many centuries do you think that would take?
It's just not going to happen.
We went there to kill and displace, well mission accomplished.
It's only Bush who declared a democratic form of government there was part of the "victory". I think a lot of people shook their heads and played along, but A-stan isn't Iraq, it's a backwater shithole that will always be a backwater shithole in the modern world.
Posted by: Ben at June 20, 2011 05:10 PM (DKV43)
Posted by: steevy at June 20, 2011 05:11 PM (FlgcF)
Posted by: Ken at June 20, 2011 05:11 PM (JYADs)
They're a buncha damned rock worshipping animals that have to concept of anything decent anyway.
They'll probably continue to plot terrorist attacks against us but maybe next time we can just flatten them.
Give it to Israel, they could probably do something useful with it.
Posted by: ErikW at June 20, 2011 05:11 PM (aBXWt)
Posted by: Cherry π the unbanned at June 20, 2011 05:12 PM (OhYCU)
no kidding - especially if your computer breaks down
Posted by: chemjeff homeowner at June 20, 2011 05:12 PM (QAJGa)
Posted by: Nora at June 20, 2011 05:14 PM (VxqUc)
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at June 20, 2011 09:07 PM (r4wIV)
That's BS, we went there in the first place to kill Al Queda and Bin Laden. That's done now. No one said we were going there to turn Afghanistan into a functioning democracy. That position evolved over time and most people think is unrealistic. I originally thought we would only be their a couple of months.
That being said Obama isn't going to pull out now. He can't afford the chaos during an election season so more people will die to try and help him get reelected.
Posted by: robtr at June 20, 2011 05:14 PM (MtwBb)
Posted by: Ken at June 20, 2011 05:17 PM (JYADs)
Our future lies with India anyway, not Pakistan.
no kidding - especially if your computer breaks down
Posted by: chemjeff homeowner at June 20, 2011 09:12 PM
So you are saying to me you suffered an EMP attack?
Please you are telling me what screen you are seeing?
Posted by: Sanjay the Tech guy named "Bob" at June 20, 2011 05:17 PM (ZUWaD)
Posted by: Dr Spank, Squatter at June 20, 2011 05:17 PM (1fB+3)
Posted by: Jane D'oh at June 20, 2011 05:19 PM (UOM48)
Posted by: no good deed at June 20, 2011 05:22 PM (MZSfb)
Posted by: Ken at June 20, 2011 05:22 PM (JYADs)
Well, I'm off to finish my Vince Flynn novel
Which one?
Pursuit of Honor.
I just picked up Brad Thor's Foreign Influence. I actually like his writing style better. More funny banter in between the killin'.
Posted by: Jane D'oh at June 20, 2011 05:23 PM (UOM48)
Um, quite a lot of idealists did support turning Afghanistan into a Western democracy from 1990something to 2003. Those were the "neo-cons" allied with some liberals like in The New Republic. I'm in my late 30s and I remember. You might laugh at them now as being clowns in mags no-one reads like Commentary; but I assure you that back in 2002 they had George W Bush's ear.
I mean, David Frum was Bush's speechwriter for God's sake.
Posted by: Zimriel at June 20, 2011 05:24 PM (+MKxi)
Ken. Lighten up. Plz. You're acting like a caricature.
Posted by: Zimriel at June 20, 2011 05:26 PM (+MKxi)
Posted by: Ken at June 20, 2011 05:26 PM (JYADs)
Posted by: no good deed at June 20, 2011 05:28 PM (MZSfb)
Posted by: Ken at June 20, 2011 05:29 PM (JYADs)
Man, that does not say much for Vince Flynn.
I've just finished reading the first three Brad Thor books, and the guy's writing seems to be getting worse as he goes along.
Posted by: Waterhouse at June 20, 2011 05:30 PM (/BXzv)
Posted by: phoenixgirl at June 20, 2011 05:30 PM (eOXTH)
Posted by: USS Diversity at June 20, 2011 05:32 PM (RPYjQ)
We can't afford any more nation building anyway.
Next time some 3rd world hellhole attacks us, just hellfire their entire leadership and let some new warlord take over. If he behaves, fine. If not, then blow him up. Repeat until they behave.
Much cheaper. Won't bankrupt us. And politically supportable.
This strategy mainly requires a strong navy with long range drones.
Posted by: Clubber Lang at June 20, 2011 05:33 PM (QcFbt)
I admire, and aspire to be, the strong silent type.
Posted by: fluffy at June 20, 2011 05:33 PM (SwkdU)
that and deploy the troops there home through Iran.
the one's in Iraq can leave via Syria.
Posted by: redc1c4 at June 20, 2011 05:35 PM (d1FhN)
Man, that does not say much for Vince Flynn.
I've just finished reading the first three Brad Thor books, and the guy's writing seems to be getting worse as he goes along.
Posted by: Waterhouse at June 20, 2011 09:30 PM (/BXzv)
Well, sue me. I'm up to my neck with political books. Brad's one book I just read was exciting and fun.
I've got a lib sister who's a writer. I'm sure she'd sneer at my book selections. I've read more history and conservative commentary than I can stomach right now. Every now and then I pick up a P. J. O'Rourke off the bookshelf just to lower my blood pressure.
Posted by: Jane D'oh at June 20, 2011 05:35 PM (UOM48)
Posted by: Grey Fox at June 20, 2011 05:36 PM (K7hz4)
Posted by: Ken at June 20, 2011 05:36 PM (JYADs)
been doing that all my life, and having great fun in the process.
Posted by: redc1c4 at June 20, 2011 05:37 PM (d1FhN)
Posted by: Barry O at June 20, 2011 05:37 PM (x9YN5)
Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at June 20, 2011 05:38 PM (NtTkA)
You call me "Killer!"
Posted by: Barry 'Francis' O'Bama at June 20, 2011 05:39 PM (SwkdU)
Posted by: redc1c4 at June 20, 2011 05:39 PM (d1FhN)
Posted by: FRONT TOWARD LEFT at June 20, 2011 05:39 PM (cbyrC)
Posted by: no good deed at June 20, 2011 05:39 PM (MZSfb)
Posted by: Ken at June 20, 2011 05:40 PM (JYADs)
This is all great, but what happens when you start pulling them out and the Taliban starts feeling more bold?
Any time you start pulling Marines/Soldiers out are the ones left not in more danger?
Frankly, with the fuckwit in charge of this it scares the hell out of me.
Posted by: Steph at June 20, 2011 05:41 PM (AkdC5)
Posted by: FRONT TOWARD LEFT at June 20, 2011 05:42 PM (cbyrC)
Why do you want to be a crowd pleaser?
Posted by: fluffy at June 20, 2011 05:43 PM (SwkdU)
we should break up Afghanistan and partition it out on tribal/ethnic lines, ala the old Yugoslavia...
We didn't do that. They did that themselves.
Posted by: Ben at June 20, 2011 05:43 PM (DKV43)
Posted by: Pissy Pessimist at June 20, 2011 05:45 PM (4sQwu)
Thor has written at MyPetJawa and I would not be shocked to hear that he is a lurking moron as well. So it might work to be polite when talking about his books here.
I don't know if Thor wants to become a better writer; but in case he does, right now, he's been lazy. He's got good ideas and, maybe more importantly, he's got courage. He needs to take a further step into writing better characters.
There's another author going for the same audience - whom I know has posted here - Robert Ferrigno. Ferrigno had the idea to make his setting a character. I recommend "Prayers for the Assassin" highly.
Posted by: Zimriel at June 20, 2011 05:45 PM (+MKxi)
Posted by: Ken at June 20, 2011 05:46 PM (JYADs)
Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at June 20, 2011 09:38 PM (NtTkA)
Does Joint Base Andrews have a hot dog stand?
Posted by: ErikW at June 20, 2011 05:46 PM (aBXWt)
Posted by: no good deed at June 20, 2011 05:46 PM (MZSfb)
Posted by: Ken at June 20, 2011 05:47 PM (JYADs)
Posted by: steevy at June 20, 2011 05:48 PM (FlgcF)
Posted by: Ken at June 20, 2011 09:48 PM (JYADs)
Okay, how about: "I want to leave Afghanistan but I won't descend into conspiracy-mongering, fake-50s-nostalgia idiocy"? Hmm? Think about it
Posted by: chemjeff homeowner at June 20, 2011 05:50 PM (QAJGa)
Posted by: Ken at June 20, 2011 05:51 PM (JYADs)
Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at June 20, 2011 09:38 PM (NtTkA)
At the first completed shovel read high speed rail station of course!
Winning The Future!!!!!
Posted by: Joe Biden at June 20, 2011 05:53 PM (4Cs89)
That said, this, along with BO's recent praise of Egypt's (Muslim Brotherhood's) uprising, his complete support for Palistinians, his complete ignoring of the shit happening in Syria, his selling of our soverignty to the UN, his support for Russia, his funding of foreign countries to drill in the Gulf, etc., shows that he is destroying America and weakening Her power.
Here is a great article on this topic.(Jerusalem Post) I think it is a real eye opener/must-read.
Posted by: momma at June 20, 2011 05:55 PM (nWikJ)
It would be like me blaming poor eyesight for bad programming.
Posted by: Zimriel at June 20, 2011 05:56 PM (+MKxi)
Posted by: FRONT TOWARD LEFT at June 20, 2011 05:59 PM (cbyrC)
Jeez, Reagan and Gorbachev eliminated ALCM's a long time ago, and we ripped the arming circuits out of our strategic bombers back in the mid-90's.
"You've broken the trans-axle. You're just grinding metal."
Posted by: KirkCameronLeftMeBehind at June 20, 2011 05:59 PM (iZ6fL)
Posted by: Ken at June 20, 2011 06:02 PM (JYADs)
Nuke em til the sand turns to glass and then we can see where to drill for the oil
H/T Howard Stern
Posted by: KZnextzone at June 20, 2011 06:07 PM (ZUWaD)
Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at June 20, 2011 06:09 PM (NtTkA)
To actually turn A-stan into a normal country you'd have to destroy the existing culture(s), rebuild them, and plough in trillions of dollars into infrastructure. It would take two generations, minimum. Even assuming it's morally right to remake the Afghans in our image (you can argue both sides of that one), we can't afford it. It just isn't an option, with 10% support or 100%.
As long as cousin marriage is an accepted part of the culture, and as long as the local warlords can use the terrain to hold off central government armies ten times as powerful as their own, A-stan will not be a country the way you and I think of countries. It never was. Even in its 1970s period of relative peace and prosperity Afghanistan's central government didn't have anything approaching a monopoly on the use of force.
Posted by: Ace's liver at June 20, 2011 06:10 PM (QgI7g)
Posted by: Islamic Rage Boy at June 20, 2011 06:14 PM (e8kgV)
Unfortunately I fear that Barry's lttle soire' into a military action that called him off the back nine, He did kill Osama after all, has shown him a facet of the Presidency that he had ignored from a predisposed lack of intellect.
Now he see's they have to go where he says and they can in fact keep secrets, he realized they are a weapon.
Things are going to get ugly I fear...
Posted by: KZnextzone at June 20, 2011 06:24 PM (ZUWaD)
No, there isn't. Next time -- should 9/11 repeat -- Americans will be demanding the largest instantaneous formation of glass since the home of Godzilla got uppity.
Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at June 20, 2011 06:25 PM (1yViP)
Posted by: Cheap P Diddy Apparel at June 20, 2011 06:32 PM (NtTkA)
Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at June 20, 2011 10:09 PM (NtTkA)
They don't know how to play football, fuck them. They lose. 
Posted by: ErikW at June 20, 2011 06:38 PM (aBXWt)
That and ashtrays. The future won't be Plastics.
Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at June 20, 2011 06:42 PM (1yViP)
The best case scenario for that place is a primitive, oppressive Islamic state operating under Sharia Law that hates our guts. I would not send my son to fight for that and I cannot in good conscience ask others to do the same. Time to go. If we get a chance to kill some high value targets later on, we should do so.
Posted by: Ken Royall at June 20, 2011 07:13 PM (9zzk+)
There was a reason for that phrase "all enemies, foreign and domestic", but we didn't pay enough attention to it while we could have done something about it.
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