January 04, 2011

Oil and Gasoline Prices: What the Hell?
— Dave in Texas

The question that begs to be asked, what's driving oil prices up, and how high will they go in 2011?

The answer, we were somewhat cushioned in 2010, it's demand, and it will likely hover around $100/bbl for most of the next year.

That would mean the average price at the pump will settle in around $3.00-$3.20 a USG. Not the $5.00/gal hardship we saw a couple years ago, but not good either. The market price of crude oil, it's 55-57% of the cost of gasoline. That percentage has risen in the past several years, as the cost of oil has risen, but the costs of production, refining and marketing have been relatively stable.

A colder winter, and demand in emerging markets (China) mean it likely will not settle back into the $70/bbl range for the coming year.

In this economy, strangling exploration and production exacerbates an already bad situation. Which of course the Obama administration has carried on in earnest since his inauguration, most recently his disastrous post-BP gulf drilling moratorium.

It's enough to make Maxine Waters nationalize the oil industry.

Posted by: Dave in Texas at 06:06 PM | Comments (75)
Post contains 196 words, total size 1 kb.

1 What we need is some ordered anarchy.

Posted by: Waterhouse at January 04, 2011 06:07 PM (ly8QF)

2 The question that begs to be asked, what's driving oil prices up, and how high will they go in 2011?

Money devaluation, OPEC playing hardball, shutting down production/extraction facilities here, a potential ME war in the near-future...you name it!

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at January 04, 2011 06:08 PM (M+8TM)

3 Let's not forget what QE2 is doing for the value of the dollar.

Posted by: Jprs at January 04, 2011 06:09 PM (PfiUw)

4 You know what we should do?  Ban domestic offshore drilling.  Yep.

Posted by: brak at January 04, 2011 06:10 PM (nIoiW)

5 We don't need oil - we ride the bus!

Posted by: Clownifornia Libtards at January 04, 2011 06:10 PM (M+8TM)

6 Anarcho-Capitalism!

Posted by: toby928™ at January 04, 2011 06:10 PM (S5YRY)

7 We need a total vacuum with gravity.

Posted by: FlaviusJulius at January 04, 2011 06:11 PM (SJ6/3)

8 There is too much regulation on this thread.

Posted by: fluff-MX at January 04, 2011 06:11 PM (SwkdU)

9 O's post election announcement, on or about 12/1, that there will be no new offshore oil drilling in federal waters in the Pacific, Atlantic and Eastern Gulf for the next seven years may have something to do with it, doncha think?

Prices started going up almost immediately after the announcement.

Posted by: huh? at January 04, 2011 06:12 PM (BZEkR)

10 There has been too much violence. Too much pain. But I have an honorable compromise. Just walk away. Give me your pump, the oil, the gasoline, and the whole compound, and I'll spare your lives. Just walk away and we'll give you a safe passageway in the wastelands. Just walk away and there will be an end to the horror.

Posted by: The Humungus at January 04, 2011 06:13 PM (S5YRY)

11 I heard Hussein the anti -Christ relaxed the off shore drilling ban?

Posted by: FlaviusJulius at January 04, 2011 06:13 PM (SJ6/3)

12 what the hell? the free market's devil is in the white house and you're asking what the hell..?

Posted by: mallfly at January 04, 2011 06:13 PM (W6bJb)

13 Think that catchphrase of  "Drill, Baby, Drill!" helps me out in '12 when Barack has gas at $7/gallon?  You betcha!

Posted by: President-Elect Palin at January 04, 2011 06:14 PM (urYpw)

14

The hell??

Where my free gas at?

Posted by: Peggy Joseph at January 04, 2011 06:14 PM (diYKm)

15 Gas in my area (Pittsburgh) is up around 3.15 a gallon for regular.  Considering it's already at that price as of January 4th, I'd be surprised if it wasn't at least somewhat higher, like 3.50 a gallon, by summer.  If it stays just over 3.00 a gallon throughout 2011, as Dave in Texas stated above, and doesn't break 3.50 or 4.00, I'll be...well, not happy, but at least I can still go on vacation this year without blowing every spare cent just getting there. 

Posted by: T-Bone at January 04, 2011 06:14 PM (D9k+z)

16 An under-appreciated cause: too many oil-rich countries are controlled by kleptocrat thugs or nutjobs, so their production infrastructure is collapsing. Examples: Venezuela, Iran, Russia, Mexico . . .

Posted by: Trimegistus at January 04, 2011 06:14 PM (tzVmB)

17 @3 nails it .

Posted by: Bill D. Cat at January 04, 2011 06:15 PM (npr0X)

18 Carter era gas prices will make president for life Palin a shoe in in the next election.

Posted by: FlaviusJulius at January 04, 2011 06:15 PM (SJ6/3)

19 I heard Hussein the anti -Christ relaxed the off shore drilling ban?

After creating a new government agency that takes about fifty times longer to process permits (because lack of speed=thoroughness to bureaucrats), yes.

Posted by: Waterhouse at January 04, 2011 06:15 PM (ly8QF)

20 3 Let's not forget what QE2 is doing for the value of the dollar.

Posted by: Jprs at January 04, 2011 10:09 PM (PfiUw)

This is the reason.  All commodities are going up in dollar terms.  Not because they're worth more, but because the dollar is worth less.

Posted by: Ace's liver at January 04, 2011 06:15 PM (QgI7g)

21 I was thinking natl average, but you're right.  PA, CA, other high spots, probably 3.50- 3.75

Posted by: Dave in Texas at January 04, 2011 06:15 PM (Wh0W+)

22

Gas in my area (Pittsburgh) is up around 3.15 a gallon for regular. 

Now that you have a real governor, you should see if he'll knock off that 50 cent state tax you have.

Posted by: President-Elect Palin at January 04, 2011 06:16 PM (urYpw)

23 Hey, when the gov't makes it impossible to invest or make money in business, investors invest in commodities. More money into commodities = more demand = higher prices.

Posted by: gm at January 04, 2011 06:16 PM (ABUrf)

24 We're already paying that here, DiT.  The cheap gas across the street from me is $3.23 for regular right now.  A couple of years ago, I was paying $5 for premium here in LA.  Glad I can use the regular now.  Maybe it's a good time to invest in those shale-oil companies.  I hear they have a lot of that up in Canuckistan, eh?

Posted by: Peaches at January 04, 2011 06:17 PM (zxpIo)

25 I'm tellin' ya , the only way out of this is the metric system .

Posted by: Bill D. Cat at January 04, 2011 06:17 PM (npr0X)

26 1 What we need is some ordered anarchy.

Posted by: Waterhouse at January 04, 2011 10:07 PM (ly8QF)

--Dude, we should all have the right to refine our own gasoline without government regulation.

Posted by: BMXDroid at January 04, 2011 06:17 PM (BP6Z1)

27 28 Hawaii will be over $4.

So will CA, once Moonbeam puts more CO2 regulations upon the people there.

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at January 04, 2011 06:17 PM (M+8TM)

28 Chtulu. Duh!

Posted by: Pug Mahon at January 04, 2011 06:17 PM (Wb1g8)

29 The metric system is for soccer players and other gender confused fairies.

Posted by: FlaviusJulius at January 04, 2011 06:18 PM (SJ6/3)

30 #35  --Dude, we should all have the right to refine our own gasoline without government regulation.

Moonshine gas!  Hooray!

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at January 04, 2011 06:19 PM (M+8TM)

31 Why go with solar and windmills when cold fusion is equally viable?

Posted by: FlaviusJulius at January 04, 2011 06:19 PM (SJ6/3)

32 When will the American people get tired of all the fucking they are getting?

Posted by: steevy at January 04, 2011 06:20 PM (dtXRz)

33 @38 Trust me on this one , I was kidding .

Posted by: Bill D. Cat at January 04, 2011 06:20 PM (npr0X)

34 What we need now are price controls. And massive inflation. All the best of Nixon and Carter right here right now.

Posted by: cali grump at January 04, 2011 06:20 PM (hL0k8)

35 If I have to pay $100 per gallon to get the Indonesian Imbecile voted /impeached out it will be worth it. High gas prices are the kiss of electoral death for B+rry...we could run Rush Limbaugh and win on $10/gal gas. The higher the price goes, the more conservative a President will be elected.

Posted by: torabora at January 04, 2011 06:20 PM (9e2Sv)

36

Where are all the leftards telling us how Boosh and Darth Vader were driving up the price? Oh wait, there minion is in charge now. They don't care.

Posted by: Bruce The Robert at January 04, 2011 06:20 PM (FDomG)

37 I keep hearing this idea from the Left, that the oil companies are keeping fleets of super tankers circling in the Pacific to keep oil prices high. 
This raises a variety of questions:
1) How much does it cost to keep the crew of a super tanker at sea?
2) How much insurance does it cost while a supertanker is at sea?
3) How much does it cost in fuel for a ship to circle endlessly?
4) How much effect, really, would one tanker have on the price of oil?
5) How many ships are allegedly out there? 
6) Given all of the above questions, how much money is Big Oil really making off this alleged plan?

It makes about as much sense to me as the old 70's canard that Big Oil was driving tankers out to the desert and emptying their cargo into the sand.


Posted by: Beppo at January 04, 2011 06:21 PM (BblAc)

38 $3.25 per gallon makes the 2% reduction in withholding tax kind of a joke. It was always a joke. The gas prices are more of a punchline. Looks like the comments are going fubar . . .

Posted by: Peaches at January 04, 2011 06:21 PM (zxpIo)

Posted by: Peaches at January 04, 2011 06:23 PM (zxpIo)

40 Something brown this way comes.

Posted by: The Fan at January 04, 2011 06:23 PM (+iY8m)

41 Easy for you to say Peaches .

Posted by: Bill D. Cat at January 04, 2011 06:23 PM (npr0X)

42 45 What we need now are price controls. And massive inflation. All the best of Nixon and Carter right here right now.

My mom has a WIN (Whip Inflation Now) button somewhere.  I'll dig it out and shine it up for the occasion. 

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at January 04, 2011 06:23 PM (M+8TM)

43 42 When will the American people get tired of all the fucking they are getting?

Posted by: steevy at January 04, 2011 10:20 PM (dtXRz)

Nebber

Posted by: bwany fwank at January 04, 2011 06:24 PM (9e2Sv)

44 Doesn't help that we allow the futures market to trade on oil.

Posted by: Unclefacts, Confuse A Cat, Ltd. at January 04, 2011 06:24 PM (eCAn3)

45 1 What we need is some ordered anarchy.

Posted by: Waterhouse at January 04, 2011 10:07 PM (ly8QF)


Get your ass in the smokehouse porky.

Posted by: Unclefacts, Confuse A Cat, Ltd. at January 04, 2011 06:25 PM (eCAn3)

46 My mom has a WIN (Whip Inflation Now) button somewhere.

I still have mine.  And an 80 column punch card.  Just to remind me that things could be worse.

Posted by: toby928™ at January 04, 2011 06:25 PM (S5YRY)

47 Yup just leave those pretty boats at the docks again all summer or just trade for a sail boat

Posted by: Batman at January 04, 2011 06:29 PM (3OCZw)

48 Now that you have a real governor, you should see if he'll knock off that 50 cent state tax you have.
Posted by: President-Elect Palin


I can only hope.  At least we are finally done taking it up the ass from Fat Eddie. 

Posted by: T-Bone at January 04, 2011 06:33 PM (D9k+z)

49 Well, hopefully the housing bubble in China will burst this year and smash their economy, thereby helping to address the demand side of the equation.  If that happens, and if we're able to break the dollar peg by inflating, that should provide considerable economic relief.

Posted by: Reactionary at January 04, 2011 06:35 PM (4nbyM)

50

Tanker rates are *ahem* tanked.  It's often good to catch a market at its nadir...but that is called catching a falling knife. Housing is crap still, UI is waaay high, and the Chicom economy is ripe for a crash too.

I think these oil prices are about inflation not demand. We are $14 trillion in debt and there is no sign it will be paid back. It's a permanent interest drain on the yearly budget..and with interest rates at historically record low rates they can only go up which will make the fed budget worse.

Posted by: torabora at January 04, 2011 06:45 PM (9e2Sv)

51 But the prog liberal democrats want to stop oil exploration, limit natural gas exploration, shut down coal fired power plants , dramatically increase fuel tax to reduce consumption, all in the name of saving the planet while they destroy the working man. Somehow they cannot connect the dots that most  working man/woman in this country have to drive to work. Every increase in fuel price takes disposable income from Americans and sends it to the very people that want to destroy us.

Posted by: Buffalobob at January 04, 2011 06:58 PM (GwH6h)

52 the local news radio and traffic station had an expert on who explained that high gas prices are part of a recovery, so that's good... that the MSM is still...shockingly...covering for the One.

Posted by: joeindc44@aol.com at January 04, 2011 07:13 PM (Du09Y)

53 It's not so much what the price of oil is, but where is that oil coming from -- where is the payment going?   Answer -- So long as the green Obamacrats are sitting their fat A's on US oil (and coal) power, $$$$ are going out of the country -- translation -- lost wealth, lost jobs, lost prosperity.  

There was a time when the best place to spend these $$$ might have been for US products, economic globalization kills that notion -- $$$ can be spent many places on similar goods and services.  A significant amount of global products and services may have a historical start in the US, but high corporate taxes and regulations are driving these folks to international operations, with and without operations in the US.  More jobs and wealth lost... 

But don't worry, there will still be plenty of big government retirement and benefit packages to stabilize the US economy...      or not...

Posted by: drfredc at January 04, 2011 07:18 PM (puRnk)

54 65 the local news radio and traffic station had an expert on who explained that high gas prices are part of a recovery, so that's good...

The wild-eyed optimism is almost cute.

Posted by: AmishDude at January 04, 2011 07:19 PM (BvBKY)

55 well. yeah. they're covering for the One. WTOP does that.

Posted by: joeindc44@aol.com at January 04, 2011 07:40 PM (Du09Y)

56 The price of regular unleaded at Costco in this area is now up to $3.23 a gallon. About a week and a half previously it was at $3.19.

Posted by: Blacque Jacques Shellacque at January 04, 2011 08:06 PM (nD3Pg)

57

We all know that when prices shot us under "W", it was a "conspiracy". You were supposed to ignore that the country's gasoline refineries had suffered a major disruption, and that such a thing would effect gasoline prices.

Now that a Dem is in the White House, suddenly it's due to one or more economic forces.

Oil is priced in dollars, and correct me if I'm wrong but I think the dollar has fallen compared to the currencies of the oil big oil importers. So that would drive the price up. That's probably most of it.

But business is picking up, too, and the expectations on Wall St are for increasing economic activity, and corporate profits. Even the expectation of such things will also drive the price up. So that probably is inolved also.

Don't get me wrong - looming debt crises remain a huge threat, and we can only expect unemployment to stay exactly where it is (unless Obamacare can be derailed). But business is still managing to make money again, dispite our socialist president's best efforts.

Not drilling domestically is completely insane, but is probably not much of a factor to global pricing. But global demand for oil is probably starting to creep up again, whereas the supply is likely struggling to even stay level. Don't look for a break any time soon.

Posted by: Optimizer at January 04, 2011 08:21 PM (2lTU+)

58 I'll lower your oil prices if you make Danny Glover your next ambassador to Venezuela, and send a few tons of our Aztec and Mayan gold back to me us.

Posted by: Hugo "For Life" Chavez at January 04, 2011 08:26 PM (dI/Tc)

59

BTW, if we had started pursuing coal-to-oil conversion infrastructure 10 years ago (and it was obvious even back then that we should) we'd be well on our way to energy independence right now, there'd be a greatly expaned domestic energy industry to help us pay our bills, and there'd be hundreds of thousands more high-paying jobs.

Coal-to-oil technology was invented by Hitler's goons before WWII, and has become econmically viable in recent years, with the price of oil becoming so high.

Posted by: Optimizer at January 04, 2011 08:27 PM (2lTU+)

60
  65 the local news radio and traffic station had an expert on who explained that high gas prices are part of a recovery, so that's good...

People jumping from office buildings are part of a recovery, too. I think the MSM can spin that for us.

Posted by: K~Bob at January 04, 2011 08:30 PM (dI/Tc)

61 Coal liquification infrastructure can wait in line. We are so tied up with enviro red tape that we can't maintain existing infrastructure very wel, let alone focus on anything new.

The biggest effort in exploration and recovery of energy deposits is in horizontal drilling (sort of old/new tech), and the enviros are trying to squelch that.

Ahh, let's just get the Canadians to do it.

Posted by: K~Bob at January 04, 2011 08:35 PM (dI/Tc)

62 Coal-to-oil technology was invented by Hitler's goons before WWII, and has become econmically viable in recent years, with the price of oil becoming so high.

Not gonna happen. Obie doesn't like that shit.

Posted by: Blacque Jacques Shellacque at January 04, 2011 08:47 PM (nD3Pg)

63 I already hear the crap, "It's greedy Exxon's fault!"  Which is pure bullshit.  Remember America, the left WANTS you to pay $5/$10 a gallon.  The President WANTS you to pay that too, even more.  Also remember to keep your tires inflated.  thanks again, 52%, you assholes.

Posted by: Case at January 04, 2011 09:31 PM (0K+Kw)

64 No blood for oil!

Posted by: Warden at January 04, 2011 11:03 PM (V6HDd)

65 "Somehow they cannot connect the dots that most  working man/woman in this country have to drive to work."

Yep.

But they will tell you, "No worries, just let them ride Public Transit..."
( ...eat cake... )

Posted by: backhoe at January 05, 2011 12:51 AM (0bk6W)

66 Since the world is largely mired in a depression I call BS on the "demand" angle. When they say "emerging markets" they mean China. China is not doing so hot right now either because their biggest customer is broke.

What is driving prices is up is two major things. First and foremost the price is measured in U.S. dollars which are becoming worth less every day. Second supply has gone down because Obama removed a significant portion of it from the mix.

If the communist asshole regime was not in power the price would be a lot lower. A whole lot lower.

Posted by: Vic at January 05, 2011 01:54 AM (M9Ie6)

67 I keep hearing this idea from the Left, that the oil companies are keeping fleets of super tankers circling in the Pacific to keep oil prices high.

Wouldn't it be easier for them to just leave that oil in the ground (which, oddly enough, is what the Lefties want us to do)?

Hmmmmm.....

Posted by: nickless at January 05, 2011 03:53 AM (MMC8r)

68 Fucking Bush and Cheney at it again I see.

Posted by: Lame Assed Democrat at January 05, 2011 05:34 AM (4FGpb)

69 55 Doesn't help that we allow the futures market to trade on oil.

Posted by: Unclefacts, Confuse A Cat, Ltd. at January 04, 2011 10:24 PM (eCAn3)

 The futures market and spot prices are not linked.  People can speculate all they want, the actual market price at the pump is what the speculators will get if they hold to maturity, whether it is a gain or a loss.

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at January 05, 2011 08:06 AM (9T/th)

70 The PROBLEM here is clear.

People who have NO INTENTION of ever selling a drop of gasoline are allowed to speculate in oil futures at a tiny margin.  Until we get hedge funds and institutional investors out of the oil speculation game, we will ALWAYS have these economy killing upticks in oil prices.

For the unwashed, Oil Companies DO NOT SET THE PRICE OF OIL.  It is set by these speculators.  The fact this is permitted to go on even after oil reached $150 a barrel before is criminal.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at January 05, 2011 09:12 AM (Baf0e)

71 For the unwashed, Oil Companies DO NOT SET THE PRICE OF OIL.  It is set by these speculators.  The fact this is permitted to go on even after oil reached $150 a barrel before is criminal.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at January 05, 2011 01:12 PM (Baf0e)

 

Incorrect. Speculators do not set the price of oil, the free market does.  A futures price of $150/bbl 6 months out  is irrelevant to the pump price.

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at January 05, 2011 10:26 AM (9T/th)

72 @37

Wasn't me, mon...

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Posted by: wholesale human hair at January 24, 2011 05:27 AM (QLQLC)

75 the most unbelivable oil price would be in China, they never go down, just going up and up

Posted by: garden mind at January 25, 2011 09:08 PM (3VyIi)

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