August 09, 2011

On That Poll About Congress: Most Don't Want Their Own Representative Reelected
— Ace

I forgot to call this figure out.

Usually we sort of blow off Congressional disapproval because while voters don't like the other Congressmen that other districts have elected, they like their own.

That's now not true, for the first time in history.

Only 41 percent of people questioned say the lawmaker in their district in the U.S. House of Representatives deserves to be re-elected – the first time ever in CNN polling that that figure has dropped below 50 percent. Forty-nine percent say their representative doesn’t deserve to be re-elected in 2012. And with ten percent unsure, it’s the first time that a majority has indicated that they would boot their representative out of office if they had the chance today.

So, that's bad. Allah considers my own discounting of this poll:

The only problem with that theory: The recent polls on the debt-ceiling deal show that somewhere between 70 and 80 percent of the public either likes the amount of spending cuts in the deal or thinks they should have gone further. The public also likes the balanced-budget amendment that House tea partiers were pounding the table for, so there’s no obvious substantive reason why they’d punish the tea party in polls now. So why the backlash, then? Presumably it’s because of the tactics. Maybe they didn’t like the brinksmanship with the economy in the middle of a hellishly slow “recovery.” The Democrats’ strategy, led by President Present, is to sit back and let the tea party bleed some of its popularity on an aggressive “tough choices” agenda and the occasional serendipitous (for Democrats) political overreach. That way, when the real battle finally begins over entitlements, independents will be more suspicious of the tea-party brand than they were before. It’s a gutless, cynical, irresponsible strategy given the magnitude of our spending problem, but it’s not stupid. It may have worked to some extent here.

Yeah, I don't know.

Commenter suggest that a great amount of disapproval comes from the right wing, angry that their Republican Congressmen compromised too much and accomplished too little.

There's nothing wrong with that theory, but I never know how to tally it on the other side -- presumably, liberals are also annoyed their Congressmen didn't fight harder to destroy the American economy. So are we to take that as a net wash, or what?

One thing, though: Given, as Allah says, that the public believes that the cuts should have been deeper -- couldn't this re-elect number implicate House Democrats more than House Republicans?

Counting against that is that House Democrats actually have higher approval ratings than House Republicans.

I really don't get these polls. All I can think is the public is revolting over the truth -- the truth, yes, that they're going to have to make some hard choices, and cannot continue simply telling their elected representatives to choose both lower taxes and higher spending and throw the difference to their children in the form of debt.

Now being confronted with the fact that this is unwise and, increasingly, impossible, perhaps they're just angry at having been lied to previously.

Although they weren't really lied to. It takes two to tango. They wanted to be told stupid lies and voila!, the created a political class that told them stupid lies.


Posted by: Ace at 04:08 PM | Comments (156)
Post contains 572 words, total size 4 kb.

1 Something in my drink tastes like mildew. I'm going to run a test to see if its the whiskey or the coke and ice. Is that off topic enough?

Posted by: Jimmah at August 09, 2011 04:10 PM (XEK+4)

2 My Senators are golden, my Rep, not so much.

Posted by: toby928™ at August 09, 2011 04:10 PM (GTbGH)

3 Scott Garrett (R) NJ-- Hey I like mine

Posted by: nevergiveup at August 09, 2011 04:12 PM (i6RpT)

4

1Something in my drink tastes like mildew. I'm going to run a test to see if its the whiskey or the coke and ice. Is that off topic enough?

 

---

It was the Ten High! God damn it!

Posted by: Jimmah at August 09, 2011 04:13 PM (XEK+4)

5 My Senators are golden, my Rep, not so much. Posted by: toby928™ at August 09, 2011 08:10 PM (GTbGH) I got no Senatorial Representation her in NJ

Posted by: nevergiveup at August 09, 2011 04:13 PM (i6RpT)

6 Whhooooossshhhhh.....pfffft

Posted by: Bawney Fwank at August 09, 2011 04:13 PM (n2K+4)

7 I don't buy it.  80% of voters don't even remember who their congressman is until they're in the booth looking at the name on the ballot.

Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at August 09, 2011 04:14 PM (LE4fl)

8 Same ole McLame for me, though I still tend to like Kyl.

Posted by: eastvalleyphx at August 09, 2011 04:14 PM (qiOph)

9 Meaningless poll BTW. I agree with #7.

Posted by: Jimmah at August 09, 2011 04:16 PM (XEK+4)

10 I live in Connecticut....I got nuttin'.

Posted by: Tami at August 09, 2011 04:16 PM (X6akg)

11 Simple.  Shit poll.

Really, it's a shit poll.

Don't discount it to feel good about yourself or depend on it to justify future action.  It's just nothing.  Act like it never happened.

Posted by: AmishDude at August 09, 2011 04:16 PM (73tyQ)

12 CNN polls are garbage.

In other news, Top Shot starts tonite, for those so inclined.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at August 09, 2011 04:17 PM (4nfy2)

13 It's not even about R's and D's anymore.It's about people who want to fix this thing and people living in a fantasy world.The American people prefer fantasy world.

Posted by: steevy at August 09, 2011 04:17 PM (IfDqm)

14

Although they weren't really lied to. It takes two to tango. They wanted to be told stupid lies and voila!, the created a political class that told them stupid lies.

Polls are like reading the Bible, anyone can find anything to support their point of view.  It doesn't mean they are right.

You have to look at polls over time and spot the patterns.

So far, I don't see anything to be nervous about.

Then again I bought Microsoft high and sold low...

Posted by: Sean Bannion at August 09, 2011 04:17 PM (HUZDZ)

15 I'm voting for Doug Lamborn.  Take the "tar baby" comment and shove it sideways up your liberal ass.  I'm also voting against the two commie hippie liberal senators as appropriate.

Posted by: tangonine, Tea Party Terrorist at August 09, 2011 04:18 PM (x3YFz)

16 I hope Sherrod Cocksucker Brown is feeling the heat of the approach of an angry electorate ready to make up for their mistake 5 years ago.

Posted by: Captain Hate at August 09, 2011 04:18 PM (houma)

17 One thing, though: Given, as Allah says, that the public believes that the cuts should have been deeper -- couldn't this re-elect number implicate House Democrats more than House Republicans?
_______

Perhaps. My rep is that Kevin McCarthy fellow, currently majority whip. Which means that whenever I get annoyed at Boehner for caving or doing something stupid, I'm also getting annoyed at my rep, who is his poodle.

Posted by: Anachronda's home IP is banned at August 09, 2011 04:19 PM (IrbU4)

18 I have Marsha Blackburn, who is fairly conservative, as my Rep.  She's a keeper unless somebody better comes along.

Our TN senators, Bob Corker and Lamar Alexander run from "nearly conservative" to "slightly right of Lindsey Graham", respectively.  I'd ask for better, but our state has a very long history of electing moderates from both parties in statewide elections.  Oddly enough, both state assemblies are waaaaaayyy right of our national politicians.

Posted by: Zombie Milton Friedman at August 09, 2011 04:19 PM (D+phB)

19

Mine was David "Showtunes" Dreier.

It is now Joe "fucking pandering socialist" Baca.

Posted by: CAC at August 09, 2011 04:19 PM (U14+T)

20 Usually we sort of blow off Congressional disapproval because while voters don't like the other Congressmen that other districts have elected, they like their own. That's now not true, for the first time in history. That ought to be big news, if true and if voters follow through. However, the polls often contradict themselves. To repeat a boring yet persistent conclusion: there is no political solution to systemic dependence on government for our livelihood and its arrangements. It's everywhere, from medicine to our employment conditions to our food to our lightbulbs. The cancer cannot be removed without fundamentally altering the body politic of the patient. So, the cancer will spread until it fundamentally destroys the body; that is, transforms it into something else. Dead or fertile, who knows?

Posted by: George Orwell at August 09, 2011 04:19 PM (AZGON)

21 If there a more excerable pile of, well, excrement in the Senate than Bill Nelson I don't know who it is. Phony southern-fried piece of shit.

Posted by: USS Diversity at August 09, 2011 04:19 PM (KbEJl)

22 2 My Senators are golden, my Rep, not so much. Posted by: toby928™ at August 09, 2011 08:10 PM (GTbGH) And I'm in the opposite spot. Al Franken and Amy Klobuchar for sideshow senators and Bachmann for rep. I'm seriously thinking about pulling up stakes and moving to SoDak to getaway from these crazy-stupid lib voters. I think the commenter Ace mentioned has a point in that a lot of fiscal cons are pissed at the GOP and that's reflected in the poll. This may not be as equally reflected on the left since IMHO only the very hard left, (extreme minority), are upset we aren't mirroring Europe enough, fast enough. But, it is a CNN poll and they willingly employ Don Lemon.

Posted by: Rex Harrison's Hat at August 09, 2011 04:20 PM (/JYtL)

23 Old sock fail.

Posted by: StPatrick_TN is a suspected TEAhadist at August 09, 2011 04:20 PM (D+phB)

24 I got Marco Rubio, Bill Nelson (he used to be an astronaut, you know) and Cathy Castor.

Guess which one I like.

And he doesn't need to be V.P., either.  We like him just fine where he is.  You can't have him.

Posted by: SlaveDog at August 09, 2011 04:21 PM (PidTa)

25 Ditto on Garret, nevergiveup. Now back to my originally scheduled lurking.

Posted by: dananjcon at August 09, 2011 04:21 PM (FzVlt)

26 Mine was David "Showtunes" Dreier. Ummph. Smarmy Clownifornian Republicanism at its most dissembling.

Posted by: George Orwell at August 09, 2011 04:22 PM (AZGON)

27 My rep in NJ is fine by me. There'll never be a Dem elected in my district.

Posted by: JWF at August 09, 2011 04:22 PM (1l37M)

28 Another thing to consider: When turbo Timmy blows through these new trillions in record time, people will start to say "What the fuck, already?" And the Teahadists will be there to say, "Ahh, welcome to the party. This is what we were talking about."

Posted by: Johnny at August 09, 2011 04:22 PM (iT/Iy)

29 My congressman is Dana Rohrabacher.  ACU rating 96.  But I am itching to vote against him. We need more new blood, people that will stir the pot, not just sit by and watch while Hal Rogers and John Boehner give us platitudes and bullshit.

I am so scorched-earth right now I don't know what I'll do when it comes time to vote.  I hope they realize that I'm out here, and I don't think I'm alone.

Posted by: The Pricker! at August 09, 2011 04:22 PM (NFSfj)

30

I'd like to see the results of this preference poll of black voters:

Alvin Greene (may or may not be THE Alvin Greene)

vs

Ronald Reagan

--

My guess - 97% Alvin.

Posted by: Jimmah at August 09, 2011 04:23 PM (XEK+4)

31 We want our free shit, we want it now, and we want you lot to curb runaway spending.  Foreign aid, waste, and fraud.  That's the *only* thing we will countenance being cut.

Posted by: A surprisingly large percentage of the American public at August 09, 2011 04:23 PM (xy9wk)

32 Mine was David "Showtunes" Dreier.

Ummph. Smarmy Clownifornian Republicanism at its most dissembling.

Posted by: George Orwell at August 09, 2011 08:22 PM (AZGON)

Wasn't terrible. I wish they would just carve the district from Baseline Road and its equivelants from Glendora all the way out to Rialto and straight north. It would be solidly R.

Posted by: CAC at August 09, 2011 04:24 PM (U14+T)

33 I'm pleased enough with my rep Nan Hayworth, as of now I am on the reelect side. Now if Rudy would just run and take the gimmie Gilibrand seat, I might finally be proud that NY isn't a total fucking mess.

Posted by: mugiwara, jihobbit extremist at August 09, 2011 04:24 PM (KI/Ch)

34 28 Another thing to consider: When turbo Timmy blows through these new trillions in record time, people will start to say "What the fuck, already why is Snooki such a crazy bitch?"

And the Teahadists will be there to say, "Ahh, welcome to the party. This is what we were talking about Yep, it appears we are well and truly fucked."

Posted by: Johnny at August 09, 2011 08:22 PM (iT/Iy)


FIFY

Posted by: StPatrick_TN is a suspected TEAhadist at August 09, 2011 04:24 PM (D+phB)

35

@2: "My Senators are golden, my Rep, not so much."

Lucky you. I've got Boxer, Feinstein, and Waxman - a hat trick/trifecta of communist suck.

Posted by: Fa Cube Itches at August 09, 2011 04:25 PM (xy9wk)

36 I wish they would just carve the district from Baseline Road and its equivelants from Glendora all the way out to Rialto and straight north. It would be solidly R. Hear hear.

Posted by: George Orwell at August 09, 2011 04:25 PM (AZGON)

37

Tim Scott.

But I'm still racist of course.

Posted by: Delta Smelt at August 09, 2011 04:25 PM (4PPLz)

38 In other news, Top Shot starts tonite, for those so inclined. Thank you! Got hooked on this last year. Between this and Sons of Gun I am almost willing to forgive the History Channel for all idiotic bullshit they air. *runs to set dvr*

Posted by: Rex Harrison's Hat at August 09, 2011 04:25 PM (/JYtL)

39

Lucky you. I've got Boxer, Feinstein, and Waxman - a hat trick/trifecta of communist suck.

Posted by: Fa Cube Itches at August 09, 2011 08:25 PM (xy9wk)

I'll take my (former) gay congressman over batboy anyday...

Posted by: CAC at August 09, 2011 04:25 PM (U14+T)

40 Wasn't terrible. I wish they would just carve the district from Baseline Road and its equivelants from Glendora all the way out to Rialto and straight north. It would be solidly R.

You forgot Claremont.  Lily white "progressive" assholes. 

Posted by: Y-not, poorer but happier out of CA at August 09, 2011 04:26 PM (5H6zj)

41 CNN hid and lied about news about Saddam Hussein murdering and torturing people to keep their little news gig going on there. Uh on what planet do you not think they won't manipulate news and opinions in a way that makes 99.9% of the people that work there happy? Hellooooooo Mcflyyyyyyyyy

Posted by: Mr. Pink with nothing new to add at August 09, 2011 04:26 PM (VidfH)

42 Man, oh man. The 30th District of Clownifornistan. Moonbat mating ground.

Posted by: George Orwell at August 09, 2011 04:27 PM (AZGON)

43 I might finally be proud that NY isn't a total fucking mess. Posted by: mugiwara, jihobbit extremist at August 09, 2011 08:24 PM (KI/Ch) I hate to break the news to ya, but NY IS a total fucking mess. And nice gas prices ya got over there also

Posted by: nevergiveup at August 09, 2011 04:27 PM (i6RpT)

44 Mine, Jean Schmitt is a real piece of work bitch. But she votes the way I like. Always. So I guess I should be grateful.

She doesn't need to be canonized by the Pope or anything but she at least could be somewhat likable.

Posted by: laceyunderalls at August 09, 2011 04:28 PM (B4A6i)

45 Here's a poll question: Ask any assortment of people on the street in any city in the nation. Ask them: Who is the vice-president of the U.S. If they manage to get it right, then ask: Which party is the majority in the Senate/House. Good luck.

Posted by: tea party terrorist terrier, esq. at August 09, 2011 04:28 PM (TN7KL)

46 I wish they would just carve the district from Baseline Road and its equivelants from Glendora all the way out to Rialto and straight north. It would be solidly R.

Hear hear.

Posted by: George Orwell at August 09, 2011 08:25 PM (AZGON)

The SGV/Inland Empire foothills (Azusa, N Fontana, N Rialto, Rancho Cucamonga, Glendora, Irwindale, etc) are strongly Republican.

Cram Baca into Pomona, Ontario, S. Fontana, S. Rialto and San Bernardino, then give the GOP a PAC-MAN district wrapping around that from the High Desert communities and down through Redlands/LomaLinda/North Riverside and Corona.

 

 But no...we have to gerrymander the shit out of this place (and Republicans went along with it!)

Posted by: CAC at August 09, 2011 04:28 PM (U14+T)

47 My rep has been corrupted.  I want her replaced with a Tea Party rep.

Posted by: Cooter at August 09, 2011 04:28 PM (C06Qq)

48 I have Rep. Ted Poe, Cornyn, and Kay Bailey. Judge Poe sometimes disappoints on the little things but is otherwise a strong conservative. He also explains his votes.

The other two I have more problems with but at least Kay Bailey is retiring. Cornyn has become too much of an insider for my taste but he's usually reliable voting-wise.

Posted by: 80sBaby at August 09, 2011 04:28 PM (o2lIv)

49 Here in N AL we tossed the 'Bluedog Democrat' Parker Griffin for Mo Brooks who does represent our views and did it convincingly. I have never felt better about helping elect someone to represent my conservative views.

Screw the CNN poll, they left out the question that asked if you were satisfied with your new representative.

Posted by: Gmac at August 09, 2011 04:28 PM (40nO1)

50 40

Lucky you. I've got Boxer, Feinstein, and Waxman - a hat trick/trifecta of communist suck.

Posted by: Fa Cube Itches at August 09, 2011 08:25 PM (xy9wk)

Generally, mean, stupid, and ugly don't help one get ahead...and then there's your district.  My advice to you is to start (or continue - I'd hate to presume) drinking heavily.

Posted by: StPatrick_TN is a suspected TEAhadist at August 09, 2011 04:29 PM (D+phB)

51 46 Oh don't worry, much like during the Bush admin the MFM is doing its best to make Congress=Republicans.

Posted by: Mr. Pink with nothing new to add at August 09, 2011 04:29 PM (VidfH)

52 Piece of shit Squirmin' Brad Sherman is my rep here.

Little nobody is 100% Nancy Pelosi's bitch-boy.

The type of guy who still asks his mother if he can go to the movies with his wife on a Friday night.

Went to two of his town halls. He has his staff take flash polaroid and digital photos of you while you ask your questions. Always has three or four cops in the room, and packs the entire front section with mouth-foaming Hollywood greentards.

Posted by: sifty the tearorist at August 09, 2011 04:29 PM (ECjvn)

53 Do they count all the people that are forced to watch that crappy news network in airports around the country in the ratings? I would think if they didn't, the viewership would be miniscule. Not that it's all that amazing if they are.

Posted by: © Sponge at August 09, 2011 04:29 PM (p/9rC)

54 You forgot Claremont.  Lily white "progressive" assholes. 

Posted by: Y-not, poorer but happier out of CA at August 09, 2011 08:26 PM (5H6zj)

Claremont would be too far south in my dream district.

Let them share a district with East LA, Covina, Downey, etc.

They vote the same way.

Posted by: CAC at August 09, 2011 04:29 PM (U14+T)

55

@29: "My congressman is Dana Rohrabacher.  ACU rating 96.  But I am itching to vote against him. We need more new blood, people that will stir the pot, not just sit by and watch while Hal Rogers and John Boehner give us platitudes and bullshit."

I like Rohrabacher for one reason: back when I worked in DC, I was working on (among other stuff) the transfer of missile technology to China.  The Clinton administration sent some no-real-world-experience author to a hearing to support their position.  She brought her kid with her to watch her testify and to "show him politics in action".  Rohrabacher made her cry.  He wasn't even being that mean - she just couldn't answer whether or not China had explosive bolt technology prior to the Clinton changes regarding export controls, and she didn't really even know what explosive bolts were.

Posted by: Fa Cube Itches at August 09, 2011 04:30 PM (xy9wk)

56 Boxer, Feinstein, and Waxman Oh my!

Posted by: Rex Harrison's Hat at August 09, 2011 04:31 PM (/JYtL)

57 Oh, and cut the balls off Sanchez' snaking district (the LA county part) so Orange County goes back to solidly red.

Posted by: CAC at August 09, 2011 04:31 PM (U14+T)

58 7 I don't buy it.  80% of voters don't even remember who their congressman is until they're in the booth looking at the name on the ballot.

You know, I started thinking about that and there are people here in my solid-red district who have no idea who Judge Poe is but they vote for him because they like what he says come election time.

Posted by: 80sBaby at August 09, 2011 04:31 PM (o2lIv)

59 Something in my drink tastes like mildew.

Don't clean the glasses with the mung rag.

Posted by: Harry Tuttle at August 09, 2011 04:31 PM (I0th/)

60 Claremont would be too far south in my dream district.

It extends north of Baseline (that's where we were), but yeah I guess the town center, such as it is, is south of Foothill/66. 

Posted by: Y-not, poorer but happier out of CA at August 09, 2011 04:32 PM (5H6zj)

61 Ramesh Ponnuru is missing a few things.  I think he is a few electoral votes short of a full deck or some other mixed metaphor to make my point.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at August 09, 2011 04:32 PM (4nfy2)

62 Rather then worry about a poll - any results from an actual vote in wisc recalls yet?

Posted by: Jean at August 09, 2011 04:32 PM (7P7Ij)

63

@35 Lucky you. I've got Boxer, Feinstein, and Waxman - a hat trick/trifecta of communist suck.

Posted by: Fa Cube Itches at August 09, 2011 08:25 PM (xy9wk)

 

I just had to come out of lurker status to say that I think I have you beat...Maxine Waters is my representative.

Posted by: I Be That Chick at August 09, 2011 04:32 PM (gkN6s)

64 I can't tell you who my rep is because she knows who I am in real life.

Posted by: Cooter at August 09, 2011 04:32 PM (C06Qq)

65 64 Ouch.

Posted by: steevy at August 09, 2011 04:33 PM (IfDqm)

66 18: You have that right. Ms. Blackburn is a gift. I hold my breath every time Bob and Lamar vote. Steven Fincher is a freshman (TN- , so I don't expect big things from him, but his lack of support on some of the spending reduction amendments is disturbing. My only choice would be Roy Herron and he's John Tanner on steroids (author of SCHIP, received a NATO cushy job).

Posted by: compass and chain at August 09, 2011 04:33 PM (PNUbK)

67

#48

Mary Bono Mack?

Posted by: CAC at August 09, 2011 04:34 PM (U14+T)

68 I think they are rioting in London because of Governor Walker's dictatorial police state and concentration camps in Wisconsin.

Posted by: George Orwell at August 09, 2011 04:34 PM (AZGON)

69 All I can think is the public is revolting over the truth -- the truth, yes, that they're going to have to make some hard choices, and cannot continue simply telling their elected representatives to choose both lower taxes and higher spending and throw the difference to their children in the form of debt.

I've been the Designated Grownup far more times than I like.  Part of those duties involved telling others who were ostensibly adults themselves things that they did not want to hear.  I've lost track of the times I've been yelled at, bitched out, accused of lying, told I don't know what I was doing, etc. etc.  People do not want to hear that there is no unicorn.  Saying I told you so only goes so far as well.

Of course everyone is mad at the messenger, who wants to be told that the rum is gone?

Posted by: alexthechick at August 09, 2011 04:34 PM (sf+iw)

70 @64
Thread-winner.

Posted by: Y-not at August 09, 2011 04:34 PM (5H6zj)

71 Mary Bono Mack?

Never get off the ski lift! -Sonny

Posted by: sifty the tearorist at August 09, 2011 04:34 PM (ECjvn)

72
I can't tell you who my rep is because she knows who I am in real life.

Posted by: Cooter at August 09, 2011 08:32 PM (C06Qq)




She knows that you post on blogs on the internet with the name 'Cooter'?

Now THAT'S knowing your constituents.

Posted by: © Sponge at August 09, 2011 04:35 PM (p/9rC)

73 63 Rather then worry about a poll - any results from an actual vote in wisc recalls yet?

Here's an article on five things to watch. It appears the balance will depend on Luther Olsen and Alberta Darling holding their seats.

Posted by: 80sBaby at August 09, 2011 04:35 PM (o2lIv)

74 Additionally, what was the spatial distribution of that "dislike my representative" tally?  Pollsters usually have trouble with basic demographics, how did they do with a complex national distribution - I hope they aren't reporting an aggregate number that has a bunch of hated guys mixed in with the rest and I hope they included a simple check question for that as well, such as: "Please name your congresscritter?"

Posted by: Jean at August 09, 2011 04:35 PM (7P7Ij)

75

I just had to come out of lurker status to say that I think I have you beat...Maxine Waters is my representative.

Posted by: I Be That Chick at August 09, 2011 08:32 PM (gkN6s)

South Central Moron?

Posted by: CAC at August 09, 2011 04:35 PM (U14+T)

76 The problem is still the Main-Stream-Media. Most people are barely paying attention to politics yet and the majority still depend on NBC, ABC, and CBS for their news. Most don't read right wing blogs either. They end up with the Liberal slant as their only news source and even though they will mostly tell you they know it is biased, it's still all they have to go on. The Democrat Party owes it's existence to political ignorance and I don't mean that harshly.

Posted by: Arnonerik at August 09, 2011 04:36 PM (mmI0p)

77 My Rep. is Brian Bilbray, a Mavericky Carpetbagger.  Before he was ousted by Susan Davis in another district (hence the carpetbagging) he was known to voted against his party when it was safe to do so.  Unfortunately for him, his conservative constituents didn't like that.

For the Senate, I have the West Coast answer to the Maine sisters.

Posted by: John P. Squibob at August 09, 2011 04:36 PM (kqqGm)

78 That 40% though is certainly enough to get them re-elected.  You could guess over half of the 60% wanting new congressman are opposition party, so they're basically discounted.  Almost all of that 40% are people that will vote for the incumbent.  So that's maybe 30% that can have an influence to remove an incumbent.  And they are likely to end up backing the incumbent anyways because its not likely they'll be voting for the opposing party.

Posted by: buzzion at August 09, 2011 04:36 PM (GULKT)

79 Posted by: Cooter at August 09, 2011 08:32 PM (C06Qq) If you're not the real "Cooter", you probably have nothing to worry about. Still, I'd love to hear that you really may be crazy but you ain't dumb.

Posted by: Rex Harrison's Hat at August 09, 2011 04:36 PM (/JYtL)

80 64

@35 Lucky you. I've got Boxer, Feinstein, and Waxman - a hat trick/trifecta of communist suck.

Posted by: Fa Cube Itches at August 09, 2011 08:25 PM (xy9wk)

 

I just had to come out of lurker status to say that I think I have you beat...Maxine Waters is my representative.

Posted by: I Be That Chick at August 09, 2011 08:32 PM (gkN6s)

Sweet, creeping Jesus.  Move? To anywhere else?

Posted by: tangonine, Tea Party Terrorist at August 09, 2011 04:36 PM (x3YFz)

81 Cooter has a stalker! Cooter has a stalker! Na na na nana!

Posted by: sifty the tearorist at August 09, 2011 04:37 PM (ECjvn)

82 Never get off the ski lift! -Sonny

Posted by: sifty the tearorist at August 09, 2011 08:34 PM (ECjvn)

I'd kill for Mack instead of fucking Baca.

Hopefully Acquanetta Warren runs against Baca in 2014/2016.

That would just have Democrats exploding.

Posted by: CAC at August 09, 2011 04:37 PM (U14+T)

83

Mary Bono Mack?

She's right up the road from me. My condolences.

My rep's Brian Bilbray -- no great shakes, but the only contest around here is ever Bilbray versus Francine Busby. Nobody else ever runs, and I can't figure out why.

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at August 09, 2011 04:38 PM (bjRNS)

84 I see there are several other Palm Beach County types around.  I'm in Wellington most of the year. What ever happened to that Purple Avenger dude? I think he was in Royal Palm.
And don't believe those Tim Scott polls.
And Nelson is gone in the Great Obama Ass Whipping of 2012.

Posted by: Milton J Shapp at August 09, 2011 04:38 PM (le5qc)

85 Where is Greg to give us the rundown on the Wisonsin races?

Posted by: robtr at August 09, 2011 04:38 PM (MtwBb)

86 Joe Baca is half a sissy. Just like Brad Sherman.

There is no saving this place without lots of pain nobody wants.

Posted by: sifty the tearorist at August 09, 2011 04:39 PM (ECjvn)

87

Posted by: John P. Squibob at August 09, 2011 08:36 PM (kqqGm)

Dude! I need to invite you over the next time I'm smoking something.

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at August 09, 2011 04:39 PM (bjRNS)

88

@64: "I just had to come out of lurker status to say that I think I have you beat...Maxine Waters is my representative."

I could do enough heroin to posit standing next to Maxine.  Not Waxman.  To quote Peter Griffin: "Oh man, who opened the Ark of the Covenant?"

Posted by: Fa Cube Itches at August 09, 2011 04:39 PM (xy9wk)

89

#88

ALL IS DOOMED!!!

Posted by: Greg at August 09, 2011 04:39 PM (U14+T)

90 I think they are rioting in London because of Governor Walker's dictatorial police state and concentration camps in Wisconsin.

Indeed!

Posted by: Hunka Hunka Trumka Love at August 09, 2011 04:40 PM (I0th/)

91

Posted by: CAC at August 09, 2011 08:35 PM (U14+T)

I am a South Central Moron, who mainly lurks. 

I ran into the illustrious Maxine Waters on Election Day 2010 and she was none too pleased with my responses to her comments.

 

Posted by: I Be That Chick at August 09, 2011 04:40 PM (gkN6s)

92 My rep is Jay Inslee, He is sort of a harmless idiot. Spends on his time worrying about global warming but things are looking up next year. Dennis Kucinich is pondering moving here and saving us all by running for Inslees seat.

Posted by: robtr at August 09, 2011 04:40 PM (MtwBb)

93 George Orwell picks 2nd alternates for the SuperFriends SuperDuper Committee 1. Paul Lynde 2. Charles Nelson Reilly 3. Rip Taylor 4. Liberace 5. Waylon Flowers 6. Madame

Posted by: George Orwell at August 09, 2011 04:40 PM (AZGON)

94 Intrade has teh something up something % so you guys suck!

Posted by: sifty the tearorist channels the erg at August 09, 2011 04:40 PM (ECjvn)

95

Posted by: Milton J Shapp at August 09, 2011 08:38 PM (le5qc)

Ex Pennsylvanian as well, governor?

Posted by: USS Diversity at August 09, 2011 04:41 PM (KbEJl)

96  Intrade has teh something up something % so you guys suck!

Posted by: sifty the tearorist channels the erg at August 09, 2011 08:40 PM (ECjvn)

Intrade says you are fucked and only have a 20% chance of becoming unfucked.

Posted by: robtr at August 09, 2011 04:42 PM (MtwBb)

97 I live just east of Boulder, CO.
Not knowing who your congress critter is -- sadly accurate.
If you live in Boulder county it's "some Democrat".  Pretty much all you need to know.

I looked it up -- Jared Polis.

Posted by: jwb7605 at August 09, 2011 04:42 PM (Qxe/p)

98 Who is Rubio backing against Nelson?

Posted by: Milton J Shapp at August 09, 2011 04:42 PM (le5qc)

99 I wonder if I ought to come up with a flaming Treasury note. To accompany ye olde flaming skull. Might come in handy soon.

Posted by: George Orwell at August 09, 2011 04:43 PM (AZGON)

100

"...when the real battle finally begins over entitlements..."

Well hell, when the real battle begins then, it's going to be a couple of decades late and many a trillion short.

Has anyone figured out the Hill To Die On yet?  Because I think we're running low on hills.

Posted by: Burn the Witch at August 09, 2011 04:43 PM (zLCZu)

101 Intrade says you are fucked and only have a 20% chance of becoming unfucked.

Better odds than I thought. Things are looking up!

Posted by: sifty the tearorist at August 09, 2011 04:43 PM (ECjvn)

102 Given, as Allah says, that the public believes that the cuts should have been deeper -- couldn't this re-elect number implicate House Democrats more than House Republicans? Counting against that is that House Democrats actually have higher approval ratings than House Republicans.

There's a really obvious single explanation for those two things ("more cuts" + "fuckin' Republicans!"), but seeing it requires you to believe that a significant fraction of the public is, on this one subject, sort of consistent and serious. And the explanation's right there in your post, like two paragraphs away, in the let's-just-plow-right-past-this-preemptively part.

A sub-explanation inside that explanation is that Democrats (the voters) are for Democrats (the politicians) regardless of what those politicians actually do, and Republicans (the voters) are less so. And that's just true.

On the "public wants what crackaz want, blames crackaz" thing, you and Allah are being (or acting) oddly oblivious. You guys watch the news, right? Together, brushing elbows no-homo style, sometimes? The public, knowing nothing of what "brinksmanship" and "tactics" and etc. actually went down (and they do know nothing accurate about those things), was told by the news to blame the crackaz, and they (largely, and probably largely second-hand, via their "informed" "political" acquaintances who only repeat/reinforce conventional wisdom) do.

So the information contained in the poll result isn't something you deduce (via "What did the 'baggers do to deserve this?" or whatever), but something just sitting there: x% of the public—the overlap between "more cuts" and "fuckin' 'baggers!"—is fully susceptible to spin that's contrary to their own stated opinions.

And so I guess subtract that many from the "consistent, serious" percentage noted above. They're the ones who think their R rep is a dinosaur-Jesus terrorist, so their "more cuts" opinion is of no actual political value—and, so, probably dishonest in some way, a credibility-signaling "freebie."

Posted by: oblig. at August 09, 2011 04:43 PM (xvZW9)

103 I looked it up -- Jared Polis.

Posted by: jwb7605 at August 09, 2011 08:42 PM (Qxe/p)

Isn't he the pole smoker?

Posted by: robtr at August 09, 2011 04:43 PM (MtwBb)

104 3. Rip Taylor
4. Liberace
5. Waylon Flowers
6. Madame

Posted by: George Orwell at August 09, 2011 08:40 PM (AZGON)

Rip Taylor is gay?

I always thought my gaydar was a bit off...

Posted by: Greg at August 09, 2011 04:44 PM (U14+T)

105 ("Their" in the latter part of the last P above means poll respondents.)

Posted by: oblig. don't preview at August 09, 2011 04:44 PM (xvZW9)

106

@105: "Has anyone figured out the Hill To Die On yet?  Because I think we're running low on hills."

Always the next one.

Posted by: Your GOP Elites at August 09, 2011 04:44 PM (xy9wk)

107 108

Yup.  And quite proud of it.
You ought to see the Boulder City council.
They had to pass a law requiring clothing to attend.

Posted by: jwb7605 at August 09, 2011 04:45 PM (Qxe/p)

108 Has anyone figured out the Hill To Die On yet? Because I think we're running low on hills. We have skillfully graded the landscape into a nearly flat but gentle slope, somewhat downhill.

Posted by: Mature Republicans wielding the levers of power at August 09, 2011 04:45 PM (AZGON)

109 I have Rubio, John Mica and hopefully Adam Hasner next year. Not too bad considering my reps last year were Menendez, Lautenburg and Rush Holt. Holt doesn't get much media attention but he was the one who sent a strongly worded letter in April to Napolitano pleading with her to halt deportations of illegal married binational same-sex couple. I'm in a better place.

Posted by: Johnny at August 09, 2011 04:46 PM (iT/Iy)

110 We escaped during the Thornburgh years.

Posted by: Milton J Shapp at August 09, 2011 04:46 PM (le5qc)

111 Counting against that is that House Democrats actually have higher approval ratings than House Republicans.

Both sides hated the deal.  House Democrats didn't lose the support of their base by supporting the deal, however.

Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at August 09, 2011 04:47 PM (uhAkr)

112 Here in Florida we have Senators Rubio and Nelson. Nelson(D)is an Obama ball-licker who needs to lose his job. I worry about Rubio. In the 2008 election the split votes for Crist(I) and the Black Guy(D) totaled more than Rubio received. That worries me a bit.

Posted by: Spiker at August 09, 2011 04:47 PM (4t9J5)

113

TAKE THESE WITH A GRAIN OF SALT:

WISCONSIN ON THE GROUND REPORTS:

Packed polling place in GOP-leaning Germantown 30 min before polls close. #wirecall #wivote #wigov (TWITTER)

@SykesCharlie WISN reporting a pace for 70% turnout at Homestead (Mequon).  (supposedly good news for Darling)

“@WKOW: Fond du Lac City Clerk tells 27 News Capitol Reporter Greg Neumann voter turnout there will be between 70-80%”

Jessica King supporter in Oshkosh. UW Oshkosh wards have super low turnout.

Posted by: CAC at August 09, 2011 04:47 PM (U14+T)

114 Yup.  And quite proud of it.
You ought to see the Boulder City council.
They had to pass a law requiring clothing to attend.

Posted by: jwb7605 at August 09, 2011 08:45 PM (Qxe/p)

Yeah I know my daughter went to school at CU, took her 10 years to figure out that making money and keeping it was a good thing.

Posted by: robtr at August 09, 2011 04:48 PM (MtwBb)

115 "Only 41 percent of people questioned say the lawmaker in their district in the U.S. House of Representatives deserves to be re-elected – the first time ever in CNN polling that that figure has dropped below 50 percent."

41% of the people questioned don't even know who their Representative is, so I call bullshit right there. Americans as a population are grossly unqualified to evaluate politicians and politics. It (poll response/voting) is more of a guttural response to the political milieu. If things around their lives suck, then their "Congressman sucks." If their lives are going well, the best is usually a shoulder shrug and an, "I guess he's OK. I'd probably vote for him again. Excuse me, Jersey Shore is about to be on."

You had it right a couple of weeks ago, Ace. People still prefer their Congressmen except on rare occasions when they don't. Incumbents spend all of their time, and their leadership helps, in making sure this continues to the best of their abilities. The wave is the only time the trend is bucked, and it's typically the result of taxpayer abuse at the Federal level at the direction of the party in control of the Executive.

These polls are bunk because voters don't uniformly coalesce around a substitute. The Liberal will hate the Conservative challenger. The Conservative will hate the Liberal one. The default will be an incumbent win.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at August 09, 2011 04:48 PM (r4t7/)

116 Posted by: CAC at August 09, 2011 08:47 PM (U14+T) Wanna translate that?

Posted by: nevergiveup at August 09, 2011 04:49 PM (i6RpT)

117 64

@35 Lucky you. I've got Boxer, Feinstein, and Waxman - a hat trick/trifecta of communist suck.

Posted by: Fa Cube Itches at August 09, 2011 08:25 PM (xy9wk)

 

I just had to come out of lurker status to say that I think I have you beat...Maxine Waters is my representative.

Posted by: I Be That Chick at August 09, 2011 08:32 PM (gkN6s)


I feel all y'all's pain.  Boxer/Feinstein/Hahn.

SoCal Moron meetup?

Posted by: Mary in LA at August 09, 2011 04:49 PM (9wOfB)

118 Completely agree. And I am in Texas with a supposedly conservative rep who sat on his fanny during the Bush spending while I contacted him to no avail from 2000-2005. Then after 2006 and 2008, he's very, very concerned about all the spending. Yeah, right. He's among the reasons we're in this mess. I'd vote him out in a heartbeat if a real conservative ran against him.

Posted by: Lana at August 09, 2011 04:49 PM (2cVan)

119 CAC was that good or bad news?

Posted by: Potato Bandit at August 09, 2011 04:49 PM (vj3id)

120 Wanna translate that?

Or better yet, put up a new thread.

Posted by: toby928™ at August 09, 2011 04:50 PM (GTbGH)

121 NEW THREAD!

Posted by: Potato Bandit at August 09, 2011 04:51 PM (vj3id)

122 and my wish is granted   nude post

Posted by: toby928™ at August 09, 2011 04:51 PM (GTbGH)

123 I like Poles

Posted by: cherry π at August 09, 2011 04:51 PM (OhYCU)

124 96 George Orwell picks 2nd alternates for the SuperFriends SuperDuper Committee 1. Paul Lynde 2. Charles Nelson Reilly 3. Rip Taylor 4. Liberace 5. Waylon Flowers 6. Madame Posted by: George Orwell at August 09, 2011 08:40 PM (AZGON) Pffft. It's too bad I'm just a congwess-cwitter. Brrrrrtttt.

Posted by: Barney excuse me, pffff Frank at August 09, 2011 04:51 PM (/JYtL)

125 SoCal Moron meetup?

IN the planning stages. We may invade Tony's Darts Away in Burbank for a few hours some afternoon.

Posted by: sifty the tearorist at August 09, 2011 04:52 PM (ECjvn)

126

@122: "SoCal Moron meetup?"

Sure.  Of course, any time you get 3 or more righties gathered together in California, the media reports it as an incipient coup......

Posted by: Your GOP Elites at August 09, 2011 04:52 PM (xy9wk)

127 The blog is being serious broken by multiple simultaneous Wisconsin threads.

ANARCHY!

Posted by: toby928™ at August 09, 2011 04:53 PM (GTbGH)

128 Uh, are the two new posts gone already?

Posted by: Scott - Former Federal Contractor at August 09, 2011 04:53 PM (7VXM9)

129

@128: "I like Poles"

Who was Alexander Graham Dombrowski?

The first telephone Pole!

Posted by: Fa Cube Itches at August 09, 2011 04:54 PM (xy9wk)

130 We may invade Tony's Darts Away in Burbank [...]

Bummer. That's the wrong side of L.A. from the San Diegans.

Anaheim, I could do -- the wife needs a new helmet, stick, and pads, so a trip to the Southern Californian Hockey Mecca is in the offing.

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at August 09, 2011 04:55 PM (bjRNS)

131 130 SoCal Moron meetup?

IN the planning stages. We may invade Tony's Darts Away in Burbank for a few hours some afternoon.

Posted by: sifty the tearorist at August 09, 2011 08:52 PM (ECjvn)


Cool!  I lurk on the Yahoo group -- I'll keep an eye out for news.

Way back in the day, before Minuscule Verdant Oblate Spheroids went off its trolley **heavy sigh**, we had a meetup at Yankee Doodle's in the People's Republic of Santa Monica.  We had a ton of fun.

Posted by: Mary in LA at August 09, 2011 04:55 PM (9wOfB)

132 The Preliminary SoCal Moron Meetup Planning and Discussing Red Ribbon Exploratory Sub-Committee Barbecue went very well on July 9th.

We just need better attendance.

Posted by: sifty the tearorist at August 09, 2011 04:56 PM (ECjvn)

133 Cornyn has become too much of an insider for my taste but he's usually reliable voting-wise.

Posted by: 80sBaby at August 09, 2011 08:28 PM (o2lIv)

I took Cornyn off my shit list when I noticed he voted not to recommend Steadman Shabazz Holder unlike Miss Lindsey and the rest of the Repukes on the committee save one other.  He did a horrible job in coordinating the 2010 Senate races, particularly with making dumbass statements that he had to almost immediately walk back, but I blame that more on the party shitheads for making their usual daft choices.  As you said his voting record is pretty good.

Posted by: Captain Hate at August 09, 2011 04:57 PM (houma)

134

Isn't he the pole smoker?

Yes I believe he is. NTTAWWT. Dem pole smokers are the worst. He also is an education tax and spend idiot.

Posted by: Ronster at August 09, 2011 04:57 PM (Oz+gx)

135 Tony's Darts Away is a vegan hipster hangout with a huge selection of good beers on tap. Seriously, the beer is phenomenal. It is wasted on those hipster maggots.

The idea was floated that it would be nice to frequent such a liberal cocoon for an afternoon in the interest of peaceful assembly and sort of a Take Back the Night type of feel.

Posted by: sifty the tearorist at August 09, 2011 05:01 PM (ECjvn)

136 You all enjoy your evening. I gotta go run my oval ass two miles so i don't die from BBQ.

Posted by: sifty the tearorist at August 09, 2011 05:03 PM (ECjvn)

137 Tony's Darts Away is a vegan hipster hangout with a huge selection of good beers on tap.

Hmmm... (takes notes for next year's trip to the ranch).

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at August 09, 2011 05:03 PM (bjRNS)

138

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at August 09, 2011 08:55 PM (bjRNS)

You live near San Diego?  Hmmm...

May I contact you privately?  I may have a proposition you could find interesting. 

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at August 09, 2011 05:03 PM (c0A3e)

139 137 The Preliminary SoCal Moron Meetup Planning and Discussing Red Ribbon Exploratory Sub-Committee Barbecue went very well on July 9th.

We just need better attendance.

Posted by: sifty the tearorist at August 09, 2011 08:56 PM (ECjvn)


Excellent!  Thanks, sifty!  I'll look forward to the meetup.  My calendar's completely full until after Labor Day, but I'm available after that.  And I cook.  :-)

Posted by: Mary in LA at August 09, 2011 05:03 PM (9wOfB)

140 This is always going to happen to Republican politicians.  When you propose measures that involve some "spinach" for the electorate, you must explain the reasons and discuss the long term benefits of getting our fiscal house in order.  That requires strong, articulate people who we just don't have.  This is especially important when we know the media is going to be against us.

Posted by: Ken Royall at August 09, 2011 05:07 PM (9zzk+)

141 My senators and congressman are fine, for now. But OMG, my sister just permanently moved to NYC so I looked up on GovTrack who her representative is. CHARLIE RANGEL. I raised her right; she has morphed into a fierce fiscal conservative. Which means she'll be the lone person in that district voting R, lol.

Posted by: LizLem at August 09, 2011 05:08 PM (lSuMX)

142

145I like my congresscritter.

Both Senators are R's but one is getting thee boot in the primary for a tea party guy.
(Richard.."Obama's favorite Republican" Lugar)
---

Lugees for Lugar. WTH am I talking about. I reaaly need to get to work.

Posted by: Jimmah at August 09, 2011 05:11 PM (XEK+4)

143

Fuckin 14 hours later and still haven't done shit

 

Posted by: Jimmah at August 09, 2011 05:11 PM (XEK+4)

144 Well, there is an easy explanation when poll numbers don't seem to make to much sense. The public is stupid. And, unfortunately for everyone involved, that is probably the truth.

Posted by: Rich at August 09, 2011 05:12 PM (W5Go/)

145 24 I got Marco Rubio, Bill Nelson (he used to be an astronaut, you know) and Cathy Castor. Guess which one I like. And he doesn't need to be V.P., either. We like him just fine where he is. You can't have him. But Mummy, I WANT HIM I WANT HIM I WANT HIM!

Posted by: Veruca Salt at August 09, 2011 05:13 PM (lSuMX)

146 Ya know, I used to give Cornyn and KBH and Judge Carter a pass because I believed they were really conservatives to one extent or another.  Because of what they said. They weren't exactly truthful.  And their votes are deceptive because leadership allows some to vote nay when others need to vote for some political crap they've all decided on.

Which became abundantly clear as I continued to notice the spending. The fact that the Republicans controlled Congress and the Presidency made a difference, and the difference was? The spending went up. We have been played and some of the people we elect are in on it.

Yes, the electorate is dumb. Problem is, it ain't just the liberals and independents.

Posted by: Lana at August 09, 2011 05:21 PM (2cVan)

147 The idea that 70-80% of the public thinks the cuts should have been deeper means nothing.  In the same way they'd like to have other peoples' taxes raised, poll respondents would like to have other peoples' services cut.  But when you actually get down to brass tacks, there's no support for paying more taxes or receiving fewer services.

That's why we are where we are.

Posted by: Ace's liver at August 09, 2011 05:23 PM (XIXhw)

148 The problem is still the Main-Stream-Media. Most people are barely paying attention to politics yet and the majority still depend on NBC, ABC, and CBS for their news. Most don't read right wing blogs either. They end up with the Liberal slant as their only news source and even though they will mostly tell you they know it is biased, it's still all they have to go on. The Democrat Party owes it's existence to political ignorance and I don't mean that harshly.

Posted by: Arnonerik at August 09, 2011 08:36 PM (mmI0p)

absolutely true, i know i was one of them.

Posted by: willow at August 09, 2011 05:24 PM (h+qn8)

149 I thought that was "loogies for Luger".

Posted by: Rex the Wonder God at August 09, 2011 05:31 PM (NHeC0)

150 Since this really all comes down to two contests, this should be a very late night. Plus the lawsuits, of course.

Posted by: Rex the Wonder God at August 09, 2011 05:34 PM (NHeC0)

151 Charlie Bass, RINO from District 2 of NH didn't deserve re-election in 2010, and doesn't deserfe re-election in 2012.

Posted by: Live Free Or Die at August 09, 2011 05:41 PM (fbmNj)

152

I like my congressman.

HIs name is McCotter. I heard he is running for another office now and won't be back. Too bad for us. But it could be good for the country. Maybe a great VEEP.

Posted by: Mister Money at August 09, 2011 05:48 PM (wN82N)

153 I don't think folks WANTED to be told lies, they just were willing to ACCEPT being lied to cause what they were told was what anyone would want to hear.

Who wants to hear that this or that can't be done? Especially if it will personally affect you or your family/community.

So when you're told; 'YES IT CAN BE DONE!!!",  you tend not to dig too far to see if you're being told the truth.

"You can't cheat an honest man" should be carved in stone somewhere int 50' letters.

Most don't understand that being honest to others or some others means that one is honest to oneself. Typically most folks aren't.

Posted by: Sock Puppet Du Jour at August 10, 2011 03:56 AM (KelWf)

154 Most Democrat districts are more heavily gerrymandered than Republican districts.  That might account for why Democrat incumbents have a higher approval rating. 

Posted by: NC Mountain Girl at August 10, 2011 04:32 AM (5tysp)

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Posted by: The Accident Audio Book at August 10, 2011 05:09 AM (DhB/L)

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