June 07, 2011
— CAC You've earned an open thread and an MSPaint map again.
Updated our frontrunner, Generic Republican, using the recent polling and PVI stats, for June:
I don't know what is more depressing though. My skills with MS Paint, or that this is where we stand at 9% unemployment.
New Open Thread Rules:
No discussions about Weiner, bacon, hobos, Ace, myself, my maps, each other, the dog you saw vomiting in the front yard, broken glass, or bad music.
NO obligatory 80s references, snark, commentary, or pseudotrolling.
No discussions about anyone whose name rhymes with Nailin', Gomnee or Dawventi, or Christina Henricks.
No comments by anyone with an I, O, S, or T in your name.
No Jeffs, Jeffes, Jeifs, Jiffs, or Goffs.
No comments fewer than 16 characters or more than 30.
No haikus, poems, sonnets, parody songs, parody sonnets, or parody-within-parody.
Absolutely no discussions of fat people, fat people falling down, or fat people falling down ontop of each other. This includes discussions of using fat people crashing into each other at high velocities to create anti-matter.
No zombie references.
Last rule- ignore everything I said and hijack the hell out of this.
Posted by: CAC at
09:11 AM
| Comments (120)
Post contains 215 words, total size 1 kb.
Posted by: King Barry I "Piehole" at June 07, 2011 09:13 AM (QKKT0)
Every Republican candidate should begin every speech with this question!
"Are you better off now than you were in 2008?"
And bask in the glory of a resounding answer.
NO!
Posted by: MisterMoney at June 07, 2011 09:14 AM (wN82N)
Posted by: RickS at June 07, 2011 09:14 AM (rkYJv)
Whooo-Hooo!
Zombie Jeff and the Palin Hobo Revival present Fat T-Paw and the Romney's
Staurday Night.....7:00pm in the front of the Capital
Posted by: Jimi at June 07, 2011 09:15 AM (JMsOK)
Posted by: Jean at June 07, 2011 09:18 AM (WkuV6)
Posted by: tangonine at June 07, 2011 09:18 AM (x3YFz)
Posted by: Jimi at June 07, 2011 09:18 AM (JMsOK)
Ahmadinejad: No western offer would stop uranium enrichment
/Maybe if we throw his corpse down a well, Ahmadinejad will become an idol too. Let's find out!
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at June 07, 2011 09:19 AM (9hSKh)
Posted by: A*$HQ's *$ec*nd* w*r$+ c*mmen+er, DarkL*rd© at June 07, 2011 09:19 AM (GBXon)
So, does that count multibyte characters or not?
Posted by: 18-1 at June 07, 2011 09:20 AM (7BU4a)
Posted by: AoSHQ's *second* worst commenter, DarkLord© at June 07, 2011 09:20 AM (GBXon)
Posted by: Sheriff Joe Biden at June 07, 2011 09:20 AM (QKKT0)
Tomorrow is National IPv6 Day! Throw away your used up IPv4 addies and embrace the new hotness of IPv6!
My brother's two-man company is a sponsor. I don't know what sponsorship means (and neither does he -- I asked) but their name is on a list! So, celebrate!
Posted by: Ella at June 07, 2011 09:22 AM (SCfqm)
I'm not even worried anymore.....I dare this country to Keep Obama and put some more Demcoratics in office....
I absolutely Dare them to do it! Americans don't have the guts to do it!
Posted by: Jimi at June 07, 2011 09:23 AM (JMsOK)
Posted by: Jean at June 07, 2011 09:23 AM (WkuV6)
Posted by: Talibill at June 07, 2011 09:23 AM (WEWGu)
Posted by: Cicero at June 07, 2011 09:23 AM (QKKT0)
How about that Gbtv? Is it going to work for him?
Posted by: All wee weed out... at June 07, 2011 09:24 AM (dh5Eu)
Posted by: Jean at June 07, 2011 09:24 AM (WkuV6)
it's hard to view the trainwreck that is now LGF. Chuckles is a mere shadow of his former self. I am sure he's all over this weiner stuff though.....
Posted by: Vergeltung at June 07, 2011 09:25 AM (jttPx)
Posted by: BumperStickerist at June 07, 2011 09:25 AM (h6mPj)
Posted by: steevy at June 07, 2011 09:26 AM (r1/m6)
Posted by: Jean
.........
He would need to upgrade from Visi-Calc first.
Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at June 07, 2011 09:26 AM (f9c2L)
Noes! Please stay, I implore thee! (No sarcasm here; hate to see people go over stupid flame wars).
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at June 07, 2011 09:27 AM (9hSKh)
I liked the other graphic better when I was worth 5OOO.
Posted by: Nebraska at June 07, 2011 09:27 AM (UAUr6)
Posted by: EC@EC.com at June 07, 2011 09:27 AM (GQ8sn)
"Anything is better than another Palin flame thread.Seriously if this is how the next 2 years are going to be I will regretfully part ways with AOSHQ."
same here bro. I actually did for quite some time. came back for the Weiner.
Posted by: Vergeltung at June 07, 2011 09:28 AM (jttPx)
Posted by: joncelli at June 07, 2011 09:28 AM (RD7QR)
Generic Ballot+PVI/Partisan advantage per Cook and Gallup.
Obama now losing in WaPo polling 46-49 v Romney, 43-45 v Generic nationally.
Broken down using PVI, GR holds all 2008R votes comfortably +Indiana and North Carolina and 1 EV in Nebraska.
Per PVI/GallupPartisan application to the generic ballot, lean R in New Hampshire, Virginia, Ohio, Florida.
Per PVI/GP application to generic ballot, PA, WI, MI, IA, CO, NV all tossups (<4% margin either way).
Per same application Minnesota, Maine, New Mexico and Washington all moved to "lean".
I applied roughly the same formula when doing congressional projections. Not perfect, but in general the states trend in a particular direction depending on national mood.
Posted by: CAC at June 07, 2011 09:28 AM (JEVge)
Posted by: steevy at June 07, 2011 09:28 AM (r1/m6)
Posted by: Anthony "The" Weiner at June 07, 2011 09:29 AM (FcR7P)
Posted by: steevy at June 07, 2011 09:29 AM (r1/m6)
Posted by: Jean at June 07, 2011 09:30 AM (WkuV6)
Posted by: Lemmiwinks at June 07, 2011 09:32 AM (pdRb1)
Posted by: rightwingva at June 07, 2011 09:33 AM (pDXql)
Posted by: Mr. Mxyzptlk at June 07, 2011 09:33 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: maddogg at June 07, 2011 09:33 AM (OlN4e)
Posted by: War Games Retro Graphics at June 07, 2011 09:34 AM (sOtz/)
Posted by: morigu at June 07, 2011 09:34 AM (QXzRP)
Posted by: t-bird at June 07, 2011 09:34 AM (FcR7P)
Posted by: Gerge Rwell at June 07, 2011 09:34 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: steevy at June 07, 2011 09:36 AM (r1/m6)
New Hampshire. Pink.
Posted by: Y-not at June 07, 2011 09:36 AM (pW2o8)
Posted by: The guy who always shouts RINO! at June 07, 2011 09:36 AM (1+CnU)
Posted by: Gerge Rwell at June 07, 2011 09:37 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: morigu at June 07, 2011 09:38 AM (QXzRP)
Posted by: palerider at June 07, 2011 09:39 AM (dkExz)
I like that Michigan is a tie. That's where most of my relatives are.
The State went Republican but it's nice to think that they'll vote Democrat in the next election to spread the Democratic economic miracle that is Detroit to the rest of the nation. I used to defend Detroit in my more liberal days. Now, I openly admit it's a sewer that needs to be flushed.
As I recall, as cable emerged in the 1980's, Detroit was one of the US cities where most of Canada got the American feed meaning that most Canadians saw Murder City USA as the average American city.
Posted by: Stateless Infidel at June 07, 2011 09:39 AM (GKQDR)
LOOKEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I can see Texas from my house now too!!!!!!!! Maybe I can visti the Alamo and learn all about the birthplace of the Rental Car Industry!!!!
Posted by: Sarah Palin at June 07, 2011 09:40 AM (C8hzL)
I think I need smelling salts... I'm not sure I can buy that one, and I live just outside of Seattle.
Posted by: Deanna at June 07, 2011 09:41 AM (QjZhI)
Posted by: Rondinellamamma at June 07, 2011 09:43 AM (165ZM)
Posted by: Ian S. at June 07, 2011 09:44 AM (tqwMN)
Posted by: steevy at June 07, 2011 09:45 AM (r1/m6)
Does that funky thing work if the generic republican suddenly gets a name like Romney, Pawlenty, Palin, Cain, etc?
Just wondering about that.
Posted by: Joe at June 07, 2011 09:46 AM (IgakF)
Posted by: George Orwell at June 07, 2011 09:46 AM (AZGON)
#75
Leaning doesn't mean by 1 or 2 points. It's more like 4-7%.
So it is not that hard to conceive. Don't get hopeful.
Posted by: CAC at June 07, 2011 09:46 AM (JEVge)
Posted by: Mike Castle at June 07, 2011 09:48 AM (AZGON)
Double Tap on Rule #8
--------------------
To break rule eight
I doodle in Blender
then switch discouraged to Notepad
-----------------
There are worse things
in a land of stumbling candidates
than Jockey covered boners
Posted by: Errol at June 07, 2011 09:53 AM (uAzAD)
Posted by: Jeff B. at June 07, 2011 09:54 AM (hIWe1)
Posted by: THE CAPS LOCK BUTTON at June 07, 2011 09:56 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: Beth at June 07, 2011 09:56 AM (5NfIh)
Posted by: andi sullivan at June 07, 2011 09:57 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: maddogg at June 07, 2011 01:33 PM (OlN4e)
Me! Me! It's my state! New Hampshire!
*jumping up and down and waving arms to be seen despite the overwhelming blue of the surrounding NE states*
We're here! Honest!
Posted by: MWR at June 07, 2011 09:58 AM (4df7R)
Posted by: Clubber Lang at June 07, 2011 10:02 AM (QcFbt)
Posted by: Beth at June 07, 2011 01:56 PM (5NfIh)
We win it. Short answer.
We win by flipping ND, NE, MT, VA (51 seats) and MO. Good shot at flipping WI as well, less chance but still possible to flip MI,OH,FL,NM.
Astronomical-yet-still-possible chance we flip NY,MN,PA,HI and get a filibuster-proof majority.
Posted by: CAC at June 07, 2011 10:03 AM (JEVge)
And yes, it is depressing that with +9 pct stated unemployment we're not beating the shiite out of the donks. I'll chalk that up to the mfm keeping a lid on that/making excuses for stutters.
Given that the real unemployment is closer to 20 than 10 pct, and the front page headline of the US owing 62 trillion in future obligations on THE USA TODAY, think that things might be taking a bad turn for those in the surreality based community. Which is good for our team. Yay.
Posted by: Chariots of Toast at June 07, 2011 10:04 AM (XyjRQ)
Posted by: Clubber Lang at June 07, 2011 10:04 AM (QcFbt)
Posted by: Clueless at June 07, 2011 10:04 AM (LyOUH)
Posted by: The Commentor Who Calls Everyone and Everything a RINO at June 07, 2011 01:57 PM (OWjjx)
Undead, is that you?
Posted by: Clueless at June 07, 2011 10:06 AM (LyOUH)
Posted by: Clubber Lang at June 07, 2011 02:04 PM (QcFbt)
There is one candidate who would be Obama's ultimate nightmare but he will not enter the race or win the primary.
But he would make Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, New Hampshire and Maine all Tossup-to-Red.
His hopes at a 2nd term would bleed out after the Eastern Time Zone states kick in.
Posted by: CAC at June 07, 2011 10:07 AM (JEVge)
Posted by: Jean at June 07, 2011 10:08 AM (WkuV6)
A quick look at my MS-DOS map, with it's dog-vomit graphics quality, and I soon crumpled it between my fists like broken glass, or that CD I had of Glass Tiger's "Don't Forget Me When I'm Gone". Balin and Gimli ate Good 'n' Plenty, non-plussed to be in the company of an Ewok and a Moor.
Jefe Basho had scribbled this in the corner of the map:
So silent the webcam
So loud the teeming horde
Breitbart
Then he sang out:
Zombie Chris Farley and Zombie John Candy
Fought to the death as to who was the dandy
With Farley the bumbler and Candy the quipper
Things fell apart like Rep Weiner's pants zipper
"Those aren't two pillows"" and "Tommy want wing-y"
Couldn't erase the first sight of that thing-y
Try as they might, the comics did fail
To distract the poor congressman, in want of a nail
Posted by: My Sharia Moor at June 07, 2011 10:08 AM (ZY+lZ)
Every Republican candidate should begin every speech with this question!
"Are you better off now than you were in 2008?"
And bask in the glory of a resounding answer.
NO!
Posted by: MisterMoney at June 07, 2011 01:14 PM (wN82N)
2006!!!!!! It all started going to shit when the Dems took control of CONGRESS.
Posted by: Romeo13 at June 07, 2011 10:11 AM (NtXW4)
Posted by: Vic at June 07, 2011 10:14 AM (M9Ie6)
#108
I'm not using state-by-state.
I am taking the generic results from Rasmussen, applying the PVIs from Cook, and the Gallup Partisan Advantage data from earlier this year, and getting this result.
State-by-state polling is currently dominated by PPP, and is registered voters only. I will start to use those once a few other firms start contributing regularly.
Posted by: CAC at June 07, 2011 10:18 AM (JEVge)
Posted by: Vic at June 07, 2011 10:22 AM (M9Ie6)
Posted by: MrObvious at June 07, 2011 10:24 AM (H87Hu)
Posted by: Shock the Puppet at June 07, 2011 10:50 AM (CYoZS)
Posted by: yesthatmcgurk at June 07, 2011 10:51 AM (8aG5Z)
Posted by: Cicero
Let me die. I can never regain my lustre, and my tubes are going off like popcorn( roll with it). And the colors. Those colors haunt me.
Posted by: Vicky, the captive Commodore 64 at June 07, 2011 10:54 AM (Gzv/o)
@Vic
PPP has earned that skepticism, though their last-minute polling is very, very accurate.
A general rule is IF R>D per PPP,RAS,SUSA, R wins. All three aren't wrong together*
*Exception- CO-Senate-2010.
Posted by: CAC at June 07, 2011 11:31 AM (lap0q)
Yeah, I think all of them get real accurate in the very last days so that they can try to preserve their credibility in the future. Generally with most of the polls I just add 5% to the Republicans and it comes out about right. That is all except the newspaper polls. They are so bad it is hard to fix them.
On the CO score I seem to recall an article recently about them finding outright fraud during the election that cost the Republicans the election. And it was from an official source. I can't remember where that was though.
Posted by: Vic at June 07, 2011 11:35 AM (M9Ie6)
Posted by: Vic at June 07, 2011 12:06 PM (M9Ie6)
Re-parse that. Come back when you see the problem.
Posted by: AoSHQ's *second* worst commenter, DarkLord© at June 07, 2011 12:09 PM (GBXon)
Posted by: haomai at June 21, 2011 01:35 AM (fOq3O)
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Posted by: Talibill at June 07, 2011 09:12 AM (WEWGu)