September 27, 2011
— Ace Of ObamaCare he says "Repeal & Replace," which I understand has become some kind of dirty word among some conservatives, who insist, contrary to the evidence, that almost nothing needs to be done in the area of health care.
That's not true. Health care is currently a weird blend of socialism and waste. Costs continue going up 2 or 3 times faster than GDP. There is something screwed up on a fundamental level here.
But the law’s new open-ended entitlement programs are its biggest failure. One has been described as a classic “insurance death spiral,” and the other requires an additional trillion in new federal spending. Both are fiscally unsustainable, and estimates suggest the costs could be much higher than initially projected.And that ultimately is where President’s health law falls short. If you look at our debt-and-deficits problem, it really is a health-care spending problem. Today, excluding interest, approximately one-fourth of federal spending goes toward government health-care programs, such as Medicare and Medicaid.
By the time my kids are my age, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office projects that the share of federal spending going to pay just for health care programs will reach 45 percent.
And the new health law does nothing to address the pressure that escalating health care costs are putting on the federal budget. CBO Director Doug Elmendorf has stated that the new law, “does not substantially diminish that pressure.”
Instead, it doubles down on the flawed design of open-ended, subsidized government health care. The result? A health-care system characterized by overutilization and inefficiency, in which costs are rising at 2 to 3 times the growth rate of GDP.
As any family on a budget can tell you, when one-fourth of your budget is growing three times faster than your income, you are in deep trouble – all other priorities get squeezed as you fall deeper into debt.
That is exactly the situation our government faces today.
There is no serious dispute – on either side of the aisle – that health-care inflation is the primary driver of our unsustainable deficits. As President Obama put it, “If you look at the numbers, Medicare in particular will run out of money, and we will not be able to sustain that program no matter how much taxes go up.”
And Democratic officials will even admit that the primary driver of health-care inflation is the current structure of government programs. As HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius recently testified regarding Medicare’s flawed fee-for-service structure, “I would say that the current fee-for-service system, yes, is unsustainable.”
So the disagreement isnÂ’t really about the problem. ItÂ’s about how best to control costs in government health care programs. And if I could sum up that disagreement in a couple of sentences, I would say this: Our plan is to empower patients. Their plan is to empower bureaucrats.
Obama's plan is very nasty for seniors. Very nasty. This is the most under-reported political story of the decade. While Obama and the Democrats run a Mediscare campaign, it's their own policies that should be scaring the living hell out of seniors.
Just last week, the President rolled out a deficit-reduction plan that doubled down on his bureaucratic approach to controlling Medicare costs, first advanced in his health-care law last year.The law empowers a board of 15 unelected officials – the Independent Payment Advisory Board, or IPAB – to hold the growth of Medicare spending to GDP plus 1 percent by reducing reimbursements to health-care providers. Unless overturned by a supermajority in Congress, the recommended cuts dictated by this board become law.
The PresidentÂ’s latest proposal simply called for letting IPAB cut deeper. This board of bureaucrats will now be tasked with holding MedicareÂ’s growth rate to GDP plus half a percent. To put that in context, Medicare is currently growing at 6.3 percent per year.
MedicareÂ’s non-partisan chief actuary, Richard Foster, has been clear on this point: Going from 6 percent growth down to the PresidentÂ’s targets, using only the blunt tools that his law gives to IPAB, would simply drive Medicare providers out of business, resulting in harsh disruptions and denied care for seniors.
In fact, the deterioration in seniorsÂ’ care that is projected to occur under IPAB would be so untenable, the board is unlikely to yield any savings at all. Future Congresses would be under tremendous pressure to undo the cuts, just as past Congresses have time and again reversed scheduled cuts to physiciansÂ’ pay.
As I keep saying here, "Business as usual" is not even on the table. Neither party actually proposes to keep the current system going. So seniors who want the current system to keep on going -- you lose. No one's even talking about that.
The Republican plan is to reform the system so that costs do not continue to skyrocket.
The Democratic plan is to do no reforms to the system at all, and just cut the amount of money paid to health-service providers -- who, let me be clear, will simply stop treating Medicare patients. Oh, the sort of doctors who can't otherwise attract a clientele will treat them; but the sort of doctors willing to work for the government's cost-controlled cut-rate reimbursements are not, let us say, top shelf.
So both parties propose cutting Medicare spending. Only one party proposes reforms to the system that actually might blunt the impact of reduced spending. That is, if spending goes down, but a reformed system results in lower prices, too, then the actual net effect of that reduced spending is lessened.
The other party just wants to savagely reduce reimbursements for those who actually treat seniors, so they can continue to piss away money on Solyndra and ObamaCare For Everyone (TM).
Those are the choices on the table. "Let's just keeping doing what we've been doing" is not among them.
Thanks to Dave @ Garfield Ridge.
Posted by: Ace at
09:53 AM
| Comments (131)
Post contains 993 words, total size 6 kb.
Posted by: SantaRosaStan, Yid Janitor emeritus at September 27, 2011 09:56 AM (UqKQV)
I'm not sure what you mean by this, ace. Are you saying that there are mountains of evidence that healthcare needs fundamental changes, or that Obamacare needs fundamental changes? Because one is right, and the other is wrong.
Obama care needs one fundamental change- it needs to be repealed.
Health Care, on the other hand, ain't so bad as people would have you believe. I could do a full defense of the Health Care industry, but I won't. What I will say is that any pricing issues would be much more easily fixed by just getting Government out of the way (and moving the incentive for purchasing insurance from the Employer and to the Individual- which is still undoing previous Government intervention) than by the Government implementing some new Rube Goldberg scheme.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at September 27, 2011 09:57 AM (8y9MW)
13 more months and a few days, brothers. A year and a month and some days
Posted by: SantaRosaStan, Yid Janitor emeritus at September 27, 2011 09:58 AM (UqKQV)
Posted by: SCRednek at September 27, 2011 09:58 AM (UfvyB)
Now who was the one that got slammed by the left, the media (but I repeat myself), and the easily excitable on the putative right for calling it correctly for what it is; a death panel?
Posted by: beedubya at September 27, 2011 09:59 AM (AnTyA)
I think conservatives are worried when they hear the word "replace" because they assume it'll be just another social engineering attempt.
However, our health system is messed up. It costs too much because the market is distorted. Many people can't afford insurance and many people than can barely afford it don't get it because it would eat up most of their budget.
There are a bunch of legtimate fixes out there. Tort reform, open interstate competition, less focus on third party payers. If a third party is paying then you won't shop around. If people shopped around for MRI's like they do for cars or groceries then they would get the same service for a lower price and it would force hospitals to cut prices in order to compete.
There are a bunch of good ideas out there. So I'm for repeal and replace, assuming replace involved free market ideas and not social engineering from the right.
Posted by: Ben at September 27, 2011 09:59 AM (wuv1c)
Posted by: Ben at September 27, 2011 09:59 AM (wuv1c)
Case in point: Who really likes going to the Dentist (or Doctor) who advertises in big, bold letters "Medicaid Accepted Here?"
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at September 27, 2011 09:59 AM (8y9MW)
What conservatives would those be?
Posted by: Captain Hate at September 27, 2011 10:00 AM (OGZqf)
What's screwed up is that government covers health care costs for anyone who isn't a vital employee. No one ever wants to hear it, but the only ways to lower the cost are the same that they are in any other situation-increase supply (not really an option, there are only so many people smart enough to be effective doctors and society would be better off if more of them were tospend their time productively) or reduce demand (end the socialism and accompanying waste).
There are no other possibilities. Not that it matters anyway, seeing as how D.C. is fully committed to destroying the world's economy through spending on every damn thing they can find.
Posted by: Methos at September 27, 2011 10:00 AM (sOXQX)
Posted by: willow at September 27, 2011 10:00 AM (h+qn8)
Posted by: No Whining at September 27, 2011 10:01 AM (7GfKM)
where else would i get my gold grills at the right price?
Posted by: lorien1973 at September 27, 2011 10:01 AM (usXZy)
>>>Oh, the sort of doctors who can't otherwise attract a clientele will treat them; but the sort of doctors willing to work for the government's cost-controlled cut-rate reimbursements are not, let us say, top shelf.
Reminds me of this quote:
'Do you know what it takes to perform a brain operation? Do you know the kind of skill it demands, and the years of passionate, merciless, excruciating devotion that go to acquire that skill? That was what I would not place at the disposal of men whose sole qualification to rule me was their capacity to spout the fraudulent generalities that got them elected to the privilege of enforcing their wishes at the point of a gun. I would not let them dictate the purpose for which my years of study had been spent, or the conditions of my work, or my choice of patients, or the amount of my reward. I observed that in all the discussions that preceded the enslavement of medicine, men discussed everything--except the desires of the doctors. Men considered only the "welfare" of the patients, with no thought for those who were to provide it. That a doctor should have any right, desire or choice in the matter, was regarded as irrelevant selfishness; his is not to choose, they said, only "to serve." . . . I have often wondered at the smugness with which people assert their right to enslave me, to control my work, to force my will, to violate my conscience, to stifle my mind--yet what is it that they expect to depend on, when they lie on an operating table under my hands?'
Posted by: Ben at September 27, 2011 10:01 AM (wuv1c)
Posted by: Comrade Barry at September 27, 2011 10:03 AM (D5hxK)
I can think of several things that would "increase supply." For one, allow PAs and NPs to run their own practices. Right now, they have to "support" a "real" doctor- even though they're capable of doing anything you'd go to an Urgent Care Clinic for, and almost anything you'd go to the ER for.
Let them do that- there is a much, much lower barrier to entry, and such locations (especially Urgent Care clinics) tend to be very, very good about "I can't help you with that. This should tide you over, but you need to call your doctor first thing in the morning. If you don't have one, I can refer you."
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at September 27, 2011 10:03 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: SantaRosaStan, Yid Janitor emeritus at September 27, 2011 10:03 AM (UqKQV)
Posted by: Comrade Barry at September 27, 2011 02:03 PM (D5hxK)
The Logan's Run solution.
Posted by: AmishDude at September 27, 2011 10:03 AM (T0NGe)
A gefilte fish in every pot !!!!!!
Posted by: Honey Badger ben Janitor at September 27, 2011 10:04 AM (GvYeG)
They didn't so much lose as... wait, who am I kidding. Dallas can't exactly take credit for that win. Any game you "win" on field goals is a game the other team actively lost.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at September 27, 2011 10:04 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: CBS evening news watcher at September 27, 2011 10:04 AM (263hv)
Posted by: George Orwell what knows Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure at September 27, 2011 10:04 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: The Q at September 27, 2011 10:05 AM (CJIam)
Well, there's only so much the man can do. And, in his defense: He's right.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at September 27, 2011 10:06 AM (8y9MW)
That's becoming a similar phrase to "hold my beer; watch this".....
Posted by: © Sponge at September 27, 2011 10:06 AM (UK9cE)
Oh, how sweet that would be. Poetic justice.
Posted by: George Orwell what knows Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of
a miserable failure at September 27, 2011 02:04 PM (AZGON)
You do know that nobody has been on the national Democrat party ticket since 1980 who did not go to law school.
Posted by: AmishDude at September 27, 2011 10:07 AM (T0NGe)
Posted by: joncelli at September 27, 2011 10:07 AM (RD7QR)
Posted by: Honey Badger ben Janitor at September 27, 2011 10:07 AM (GvYeG)
Posted by: Doc at September 27, 2011 10:07 AM (h5yRi)
deceit, dishonesty, disruption, disgusting; degrading............Democrats
Posted by: SantaRosaStan, Yid Janitor emeritus at September 27, 2011 10:08 AM (UqKQV)
Posted by: George Orwell what knows Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure at September 27, 2011 10:08 AM (AZGON)
You do know that nobody has been on the national Democrat party ticket since 1980 who did not go to law school.
Posted by: AmishDude at September 27, 2011 02:07 PM (T0NGe)
You know, I suspect if someone wanted to catch AmishDude in a trap, all he'd have to do is set a snare with a tape recorder simply playing the words "Lawyer, lawyer, lawyer" over and over in the middle as bait.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at September 27, 2011 10:09 AM (8y9MW)
The problem with healthcare is the lack of a connection between the person getting treated and the person paying the bill.
Nobody has to ask themselves, do I really need this, is it really worth the cost I will have to pay. Hell, nobody even asks for a price quote.
Posted by: AndrewsDad at September 27, 2011 10:09 AM (C2//T)
Posted by: George Orwell what knows Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of
a miserable failure at September 27, 2011 02:08 PM (AZGON)
For the record, Gore went but flunked out.
Which is a pretty neat trick.
Posted by: AmishDude at September 27, 2011 10:09 AM (T0NGe)
What we do now for an enormous amount of healthcare costs is akin to filing an auto insurance claim for an oil change or a homeowner's claim for a light bulb replacement.
Pushing all this paper around adds serious overhead and, worse, short-circuits pricing signals in the marketplace.
In this regard, the Ryan plan simply continues the status quo and doesn't really fix the underlying problem. But it's a damned sight better than Obamacare.
Posted by: Andy at September 27, 2011 10:10 AM (5Rurq)
Posted by: Honey Badger ben Janitor at September 27, 2011 10:10 AM (GvYeG)
Fair enough. Decreasing dumb regulations increases the supply of health care time the existing doctors (and folks who are eventually going to be doctors anyway) have available. Tort reform would tend to make their resources stretch farther, too. So it's not impossible to get some improvement on the supply side, I'm just not sure how much of the problem it alleviates.
Posted by: Methos at September 27, 2011 10:10 AM (sOXQX)
You know, I suspect if someone
wanted to catch AmishDude in a trap, all he'd have to do is set a snare
with a tape recorder simply playing the words "Lawyer, lawyer, lawyer"
over and over in the middle as bait.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at September 27, 2011 02:09 PM (8y9MW)
Wouldn't be such a problem if half of the Senate, a third of the House and a whole bunch of the appointed administration had no other credential than the world's easiest postgraduate degree.
Posted by: AmishDude at September 27, 2011 10:10 AM (T0NGe)
Well, "Nobody" may be a bit of a generalization, there, but it's largely true. And it was the first step to turning Health Care into a "right."
Say it with me, folks: You have no right to what someone else must produce (or provide).
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at September 27, 2011 10:11 AM (8y9MW)
“With regard to health insurance for working Americans, patient-centered reform means replacing the inefficient tax treatment of employer-provided health care with a portable, refundable tax credit. You can take [the credit] with you from job to job, allowing you to hang onto your insurance even during those tough times when a job might be hard to find.”
Posted by: Miss80sBaby at September 27, 2011 10:11 AM (o2lIv)
Posted by: Paul Krugman at September 27, 2011 10:11 AM (rJVPU)
Posted by: joncelli at September 27, 2011 10:11 AM (RD7QR)
Nobody has to ask themselves, do I really need this, is it really worth the cost I will have to pay. Hell, nobody even asks for a price quote.
Posted by: AndrewsDad at September 27, 2011 02:09 PM (C2//T)
Price quotes are racist.
Posted by: mugiwara at September 27, 2011 10:11 AM (D5hxK)
Which proves that his class warfare rhetoric is BS
Posted by: The Q at September 27, 2011 10:12 AM (CJIam)
Posted by: Honey Badger ben Janitor at September 27, 2011 10:13 AM (GvYeG)
deceit, dishonesty, disruption, disgusting; degrading............Democrats
Posted by: SantaRosaStan, Yid Janitor emeritus at September 27, 2011 02:08 PM (UqKQV)
True, but that's where Romo needed to change the keyword.
Ok, guys. On Cochise....READY BREAK!!!!
It's a copycat league. Belichick has been cheating for years and winning, so why not?
Posted by: © Sponge at September 27, 2011 10:13 AM (UK9cE)
He just wants to stick it to the rich who earn it on their own. The fact is that the politically-connected politically-donating rich are just fine. The Democrats have always been the party of Tammany Hall. Always.
Posted by: AmishDude at September 27, 2011 10:14 AM (T0NGe)
Well, you're probably right that it will take "both" to "fix" the cost of healthcare. But I'll really point out the problem is with our perception that the cost of health care is "too high."
It is distorted (to an unknowable, but probably very large) extent by government regulation and intervention, but the fact is that people are willing to pay what people are willing to pay. If my insurance company is willing to pay 1000.00 for some procedure, that's their business. The only time it "hurts" is when someone who is uninsured needs the same procedure- why should the doctor lower his rate for that person?
And, I think, that's what we should be talking about- price distortion, not "exploding costs." It takes the discussion back out of the realm of hyperbole and emotion and back into the realm of economics and empiricism.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at September 27, 2011 10:15 AM (8y9MW)
Our hegemony on killing old people will come to an end!
They'll start setting bag limits on old people! They may allow killing of old people only in season!
We have to mobilize! Don't let the MFM report this!
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at September 27, 2011 10:15 AM (jx2j9)
Posted by: AmishDude at September 27, 2011 02:14 PM (T0NGe)
But, NO ONE has gotten rich on their own.,......NO ONE!!!!!!!!
Posted by: © Sponge at September 27, 2011 10:16 AM (UK9cE)
Posted by: AllenG
But you repeat yourself.
Posted by: weft cut-loop at September 27, 2011 10:16 AM (s1vtf)
Posted by: Empire of Jeff at September 27, 2011 10:16 AM (z/Mo8)
Posted by: SFGoth at September 27, 2011 10:17 AM (dZ756)
In a perfect world, the "replacement" for Obamacare AND Medicare AND Medicaid would be Pure Capitalism.
I'll tell you what ultimately is driving runaway medical costs, beyond the simply unavoidable fact the population is aging and therefore requires more medical attention: Government Involvement.
Here is something to consider, though... the Medical sector is at heart a Service Industry. Well, we've said for years that ours is an increasingly Service Based Economy, right? So if there is increasing demand for medical services, isn't that a good thing? I mean, why should increasing demand for medical services be bad, but increasing demand for... I don't know, 3D Porn or something, be "good"? I'm just saying that Obama's argument that too much growth in the medical services field will "bankrupt" us is as a society is wrongheaded... unless the government insists on being the payor and more and more of its budget gets sucked into it. But that is an argument for less government involvement, NOT for efforts to somehow cripple the growth of the medical services sector.
Posted by: CoolCzech at September 27, 2011 10:18 AM (Iaxlk)
Posted by: © Sponge at September 27, 2011 02:16 PM (UK9cE)
They believe it. The whole world is a big country club to them. You have to get your certificate, you have to make contacts, you have to get your man on the inside of the clique. They see the world as it was in ancient Rome.
Posted by: AmishDude at September 27, 2011 10:18 AM (T0NGe)
OhÂ… I thought I should warn you. Sheila Jackson Lee is on to us.
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at September 27, 2011 10:19 AM (jx2j9)
and... if people would get it thur their thick skulls that it isn't the government's job to provide you with healthcare the system would right itself, as long as the government is involved things will only get worse.
Posted by: Shoey at September 27, 2011 10:19 AM (Y7jCH)
I don't know for sure, but I think I'm detecting hints of that genius in Obama everyone's been telling us about.
Posted by: Empire of Jeff at September 27, 2011 02:16 PM (z/Mo
In other words, if you remake the commercial and just have Obama pushing the old lady off the cliff and keeping the wheelchair, you've got ObamaCare? Well, why didn't they just say so?!? They're right. Americans DIDN'T understand what they were saying.
Posted by: © Sponge at September 27, 2011 10:20 AM (UK9cE)
Health care is currently a weird blend form of socialism and waste.
FIFY. Socialism is inherently wasteful, full of graft and corruption.
Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie © at September 27, 2011 10:21 AM (1hM1d)
Posted by: Bob Saget at September 27, 2011 10:21 AM (F/4zf)
I think they're smarter than that, and they don't "assume it'll be just another," but instead they know, based on historical precedent and shit (and, especially, based on the fact that "replace" is the mantra of giant-government-forever scumfucks like Ryan), that it'll be the same but worse.
"Replace" means "rebrand." As conservative. As free-market. To make actual conservative or free-market reform impossible. Because "we tried that and look what happened."
Like always happens.
Posted by: oblig. at September 27, 2011 10:22 AM (xvZW9)
Posted by: Bob Saget at September 27, 2011 02:21 PM (F/4zf)
hey! don't be spillin' the beans!
the rubes aren't supposed to catch on...
Posted by: Mitch McConnell at September 27, 2011 10:23 AM (Y7jCH)
Well and good. But the fundamental problem, IMO, is what it always is in economics: supply and demand. Today, demand is artificially high because there is too much insurance - which means people can go to the doc any time they have the sniffles, and there is no cost. That should change; however, the limit is that privately provided insurance (on whatever terms are agreeable to both parties) ought always to be available to private purchasers.
What about supply? That, IMO, is where we really need to look at government. I believe the supply of providers is kept artificially low by over-cautious regulation. Both with respect to actual medical people, and pharmaceuticals. There are plenty of EMTs, PAs and Nurse Practitioners (and maybe others) who are fully capable of handling cases they are not presently, legally able to handle. That should change. If nurses could treat cases of sniffles, docs could spend their time on more serious cases.
The caveat is disclosure. A free market's efficient operation is dependent upon information. If a provider has limited qualifications - don't keep him/her out of the supply - but provide that the limitations be disclosed. Patients willing to lower their costs by patronizing a lower qualified provider ought to be able to do that.
Is it riskier? Of course, and so I suppose it will never happen. As a society, we are not willing to take risks pertaining to our own safety - we must be forced to wear helmets to walk across the street. But I think we're not going to solve the underlying problems until we really tackle supply and demand at its roots.
Obviously, this is more complex than can be set forth in a Breitbart-comment. But you get the idea.
Posted by: Roger at September 27, 2011 10:23 AM (tAwhy)
Posted by: AllenG
............
You don't understand health care pricing...
The insurance company only pays $300 for that $1000 procedure. The schmuck with no insurance gets stuck paying the full price.
Insurance companies always have a pool of "preferred providers" with whom they have made pricing agreements. it is beneficial to both parties.
The government has nothing to do with this arrangement. Although the government does have separate arrangements similar to the above.. except they are not two sided "agreements", they are simply published payout amounts.
Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at September 27, 2011 10:24 AM (f9c2L)
I don't know anyone personally who says nothing should be done. Tort reform, allow states to op-in on national plans, ease up on taxes and other regulations with regard to medical technology and equipment (did that tax on toothbrushes as medical devices ever go into effect?) are a good start for change
Posted by: beedubya at September 27, 2011 10:24 AM (AnTyA)
Posted by: CoolCzech at September 27, 2011 02:18 PM (Iaxlk)
Well put. I'd add that the question, "Why is the federal government involved in paying for medical care in the first place?" needs to be asked -- by everyone (as if!) ...
Posted by: No Whining at September 27, 2011 10:24 AM (7GfKM)
Posted by: George Orwell what knows Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure at September 27, 2011 10:25 AM (AZGON)
OhÂ… I thought I should warn you. Sheila Jackson Lee is on to us.
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at September 27, 2011 02:19 PM (jx2j9)
When you sum Jackass-Lee's and Tavis Smiley's IQs, do you hit double digits?
Posted by: Captain Hate at September 27, 2011 10:26 AM (OGZqf)
Posted by: George Orwell what knows Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure at September 27, 2011 10:27 AM (AZGON)
After reading this horse puckey, there was no reason to go on.
Anyone who spouts this garbage should be horsewhipped.
Of course health care costs increase at faster rates than other consumer goods and services. It ain't hard to understand. People live longer. They therefore suffer from more chronic conditions for a longer period of time. New medical technology means more tests and more therapy that costs ... take a wild guess ... more money.
To end on a positive note, I'm sure Michael Moore would be happy to post this load of fertilizer on his site.
Posted by: Chuckit at September 27, 2011 10:28 AM (pkQix)
That is all.
Posted by: Bob Saget at September 27, 2011 10:28 AM (F/4zf)
Not very many people understand how actuaries calculate future health care liabilities. They assume that health care costs in the next year will go up about what they've done given recent experience, then they assume that health care cost increases year-over-year will go down for several years, until they reach a "terminal" trend rate. So that a typical health care trend rate actuaries might use would be: 12% in Year 1, 11% in Year 2, 10% in Year 3, and so forth, down to 5% or so in Year 8 and all years after that.
Oddly artificial, isn't it? It reminds me of the chapter in the book "The Black Swan," called "The Scandal of Prediction," in which the author lambastes so-called professionals who pretend to be able to predict the future. Nobody really believes that health care trends will look like that. So why do they do it that way?
For a simple reason: if they don't assume that something happens to lower health care cost trends long-term, health-care costs will eat all of our GDP within a couple of decades. What that "something" is, no one knows. But something has to happen.
What can't be sustained, won't be.
Posted by: The Regular Guy at September 27, 2011 10:28 AM (qHCyt)
Posted by: Andy Griffith at September 27, 2011 10:30 AM (Z7toi)
Price-fixing causes shortages and a decline in quality of the thing that is price-fixed.
This is so patently obvious and true that it's a wonder that the people who say otherwise can tie their own shoelaces.
Posted by: Phinn at September 27, 2011 10:31 AM (KNtHw)
Posted by: Gristle Encased Head at September 27, 2011 10:31 AM (+lsX1)
Rarely. The schmuck with no insurance is usually on Medicaid or some other public assistance program and we taxpayers get the joy of picking up the tab.
Posted by: Andy at September 27, 2011 10:32 AM (5Rurq)
Rarely. The schmuck with no insurance is usually on Medicaid or some other public assistance program and we taxpayers get the joy of picking up the tab.
Actually, a lot of providers have a much-discounted rate for uninsured patients. Ask sometime. Most people don't realize that because they have insurance.
Posted by: Roger at September 27, 2011 10:34 AM (tAwhy)
Last time I checked, there was no constitutional requirement that you had to be a lawyer to run. The fact that so many do (and win) may be more telling about other professions than lawyers. You want more doctors, business people, whatever to get elected........get them to run and win.
Posted by: Mallamutt, RINO President for Life at September 27, 2011 02:25 PM (OWjjx)
Actually, in many states it is a requirement to be a member of a third of the government -- the judiciary -- even though state (and federal) constitutions aren't long, aren't complicated and are written in English. So there is no a priori reason that someone who is subject enough to the law that he's expected to follow it should have to be a member of a fundamentally corrupt profession in order to determine the constitutionality of a law.
It's not a formal requirement at the federal level but, if they weren't corrupt, any discrimination lawyer should be able to win a discrimination suit against the judiciary for excluding non-lawyers from government.
Also, such requirements violate Article IV, Section 4 of the US Constitution.
The profession itself is government-created, government-fed and government-dependent. A lawyer taking elective office is engaging in a huge conflict of interest and the result can be seen among the Ivy League lawyers in the corrupt Obama administration.
Posted by: AmishDude at September 27, 2011 10:35 AM (T0NGe)
Universal Catastrophic Coverage
Let's have a program that takes no income tax dollars. It is funded by a new payrol tax, let's say 2% (just like the current Medicare contribution).
We pool those contributions and pay for all "major medical" procedures above a set amount. That could be $15,000 per year.. or maybe higher..
This is administered by private insurers who would then try to sell you (but you would not be forced to buy) insurance to cover the gap between $0 and the where the catastrophic amount kicks in.
You would have the choice to not get any gap cvoverage - many young healthy people would choose to do that. Or you might choose to get a high deductible gap coverage to keep premiums down.
Employers who feel generous may purchase a no co-pay coverage for their employees..or anything in between.
The bottom line here is that the gap coverage would be dirt cheap. There is no high-end risk for the private insurers.
So, what we've done is created a pool of 300 million people for high end catastrophic illnesses only. And we've put management of low-end day-to-day medical treatments back in the hands of the consumer.
The really poor can have gap coverage subsidized by the government.. but here's the cool part.. we are now subsidizing only that cheap gap coverage.. and perhaps on a sliding scale.. with co-pays maybe!
The low-end treatment will likely move to managed care organizations with the insurers partnering with care givers.. idea: go to Wal-Mart Insta-Care for your initial visit and pay no co-pay!
It's a hybrid system that conforms to the American desire to be in charge of their own health care, while still providing a safety net in case of catastrophic, unforeseen illnesses and accidents.
Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at September 27, 2011 10:35 AM (f9c2L)
Posted by: B. Hussein Obama at September 27, 2011 10:36 AM (AZGON)
There's that, there's the third-party payments and there's the fact that "health care" is a hell of a lot better now than it was before, even for lower cost. But if you want the latest medicine and procedures, you have to pay.
If you want 1950s healthcare -- which was just fine for 1950s people -- you pay a hell of a lot less.
Posted by: AmishDude at September 27, 2011 10:37 AM (T0NGe)
Posted by: B. Hussein Obama at September 27, 2011 10:39 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: George Orwell what knows Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure at September 27, 2011 10:39 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: Empire of Jeff at September 27, 2011 10:40 AM (z/Mo8)
/rant off
Posted by: brak at September 27, 2011 10:43 AM (nIoiW)
Oh, yes. In Great Britain, anybody in the upper middle class has private health insurance and goes to private hospitals. It's only the warm fuzzy knowledge of wretched (but universal) healthcare that keeps the whole thing going.
Posted by: AmishDude at September 27, 2011 10:44 AM (T0NGe)
Posted by: George Orwell what knows Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure at September 27, 2011 10:45 AM (AZGON)
"Health care providers have no incentive to provide transparent prices to their patients, because their patients don’t pay directly – it’s the government bureaucrat or the insurance company bureaucrat who pays the bills."
Posted by: Miss80sBaby at September 27, 2011 10:45 AM (o2lIv)
.........
No.. nothing at all like Social Security.
First off, all funds are used up each year unless you have a "healthy" year.. the unused funds remain in the fund for the next year.. these things should average out over several years.
Second, you are not paying for someone else.. because it is just as likely that you may need to use the funds as someone else.
A few "features".. this would not replace Medicare necessarily. This would be for everyone else. Medicare's high-risk patients need to be in their own plan.
Also, this would have to be out of touch of politicians wishing to raid it. Untouchable. Or, yes, it would fail almost immediately.
The point is, it brings down health care costs (insurance premiums, government-paid insurance and real health care costs) in short order.
Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at September 27, 2011 10:48 AM (f9c2L)
Posted by: dr kill at September 27, 2011 10:48 AM (le5qc)
........
That's just plain wrong.. I get a "Statement of Benefits" every time my insurance company pays a bill. It shows how much the doctor billed, how much the insurance company discounted, and how much they paid. And sometime how much my portion is if I have not met my deductible.
How much more transparent can you make it????
Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at September 27, 2011 10:51 AM (f9c2L)
The Democratic plan is to do no reforms to the system at all, and just cut the amount of money paid to health-service providers -- who, let me be clear, will simply stop treating Medicare patients. Oh, the sort of doctors who can't otherwise attract a clientele will treat them; but the sort of doctors willing to work for the government's cost-controlled cut-rate reimbursements are not, let us say, top shelf.
You miss the obvious - the next obvious step is for Congress to pass a law that requires doctors to take every medicare patient that comes along.
You scoff and say it won't happen now that the GOP controls the house? What do you think will happen if Obamacare survives SCOTUS and the next administration doesn't repeal?
First, as Obamacare takes affect, seniors start to lose their doctors. then, we have night after night of stories about seniors who can't get any doctor to see them.
then, the GOP caves and agrees to pass a law requiring doctors to treat medicare patients b/c not doing so is "discrmination".
I guarantee you that will happen regardless of who has congress.
Posted by: Monkeytoe at September 27, 2011 10:52 AM (sOx93)
How much more transparent can you make it????
Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at September 27, 2011 02:51 PM (f9c2L)
It doesn't matter whether an individual can see the costs - as long as they aren't paying directly, they don't care. That is the 3rd-party payer problem.
Posted by: Monkeytoe at September 27, 2011 10:54 AM (sOx93)
Posted by: George Orwell what knows Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure at September 27, 2011 10:55 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: Miss80sBaby at September 27, 2011 10:56 AM (o2lIv)
Supply and demand, folks.
If something costs too much, there ain't enough supply.
The AMA has a chokehold over American medical schools. They keep the doctor supply low, on purpose, by refusing to accredit med schools that don't play by their class limit rules and by gaming the licensing systems.
And universities have a good reason to comply - money. Med schools are expensive to establish and run. Law schools aren't. Just stick another chair at the end of the row and collect the tuition in law schools. Med schools have to have labs and expensive facilities.
There are thousands upon thousands of people both here and abroad who are perfectly qualified to hand out Z packs and diagnose strep throat. I went to college with at least ten very bright folks who didn't get in to med school (all white guys) who would have made wonderful doctors. The AMA and the bureaucrats just need to get out of the way and the med schools need to educate these people, then they need to have an incentive (making enough money to pay off their student loans before they're 50) to set up a clinic on every corner and take the pressure off the ERs.
BTW anybody recently looked at photos of an old hospital ward from 50-60 years ago? That's how hospitals kept costs down.... 12 people to a room, with 1-2 nurses who actually cared about their patients roaming around.
Posted by: the other coyote at September 27, 2011 11:01 AM (yK44T)
Wow, if only we had a system where
a non-lawyer could, oh, I don't know, gather up signatures on a piece
of paper and get himself or herself on the ballot, something like a
petition.
A lawyer would challenge it. Bring it to a judge. The judge (also a lawyer) would strike it down to help his lawyer buddies. (This is not hypothetical, Obama did just this.)
But you haven't addressed my issue of the judiciary and the Article IV, Section 4 violations.
I do agree with you. I think there has to be a fundamental coordinated anti-lawyer campaign to educate the populace on the foolishness of introducing the endemically corrupt legal profession into the legislature. That way we can get some real reform.
If we don't have such a campaign, people will keep electing lawyers as if lawyers are real human beings.
Lawyers are, by definition corrupt. There aren't any theorems to be proven, it's axiomatic. Lawyers are to corruption what ants are to a picnic. Follow the lawyers and you'll see where the rancid meat and spoiled milk are.
Lawyers are the lubricant by which corruption enters the body politic. We have to make it unprofitable to do so.
Your
obvious answer seems to be to continue to rant and rave about the
number of lawyers to little avail.
Lawyers are very good liars. It takes some effort to dislodge them. They have infested the system for a very long time. That's why we need to shine light on them.
Or, in math terms (I seem to recall you were a math professor) your formula is
x+y=z
Yeah...don't try that. Seriously, leave it to the experts. In fact, let's do what the lawyers do. Let's make it illegal for anybody but certified mathematicians to engage in arithmetic. Then, anytime you have to do so much as add two numbers, you have to pay me.
A lot.
Well, I might work pro bono for people whose political positions I like, but I'll just use my other clients to subsidize those.
Posted by: AmishDude at September 27, 2011 11:02 AM (T0NGe)
Posted by: speedster1 at September 27, 2011 11:03 AM (v40Bj)
Education
Transportation
Food
Medicine
Law
And that means you pay twice, once for the shit that is not satisfactory, and again to fill your real requirement.
Posted by: dr kill at September 27, 2011 02:48 PM (le5qc)
God, that's a brilliant point.
Posted by: AmishDude at September 27, 2011 11:04 AM (T0NGe)
Posted by: Jean at September 27, 2011 11:04 AM (kUxiO)
Posted by: Jean at September 27, 2011 11:06 AM (kUxiO)
Posted by: Jean at September 27, 2011 11:09 AM (kUxiO)
Posted by: MikeTheMoose at September 27, 2011 11:11 AM (MP8SH)
..........
Ok.. but you assume no one wants to insure themselves - or, even worse, your ideal is not to allow anyone to insure themselves. That's almost more intrusive than the cockamamie schemes the libs come up with.
Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at September 27, 2011 11:13 AM (f9c2L)
Posted by: LonelyConservativeInMI at September 27, 2011 11:27 AM (rZZA3)
One example of that is the IPAB, which was introduced for Medicare but will be used in ObamaCare and everywhere else.
Posted by: Miss80sBaby at September 27, 2011 11:34 AM (o2lIv)
Posted by: The Poster Formerly Known as Mr. Barky at September 27, 2011 12:14 PM (qwK3S)
Look, spill your guts, we are all friends. We are here to help.
Posted by: Mallamutt, RINO President for Life at September 27, 2011 03:20 PM (OWjjx)
I've said this many times before. In 2008, Barack Obama had exactly one credential for running for the presidency: He was President of the Harvard Law Review.
That's it. That's the list.
Look. If I were to have a full frontal lobotomy, the piece of my brain that they take out could graduate from Harvard Law. I might even write something that would be published in the HLR. Granted, I would be bored out of my mind at the tedious simplicity of it all and the fact that my fellow students would not have the intellect to compete in a real graduate program against, you know, foreigners.
Yale Law graduate (and hence supergenius) Hillary Clinton said, essentially, that math was too hard for her and seemed to think that didn't diminish her in the least.
Trust me, ain't no math majors quaking in their boots about the difficulty of a Con Law course.
I also realized just how easy the profession is but how much power having all those connections gives. They set up barriers to entry and get rich off of hard-working honest people, particularly in moments of misfortune.
I began to realize that law school teaches all the wrong lessons: Life is a zero-sum game, you don't earn a living from exchanging goods and services voluntarily, a ruling by a judge settles everything, lawyers are smart enough to make our decisions for us, etc., etc.
They are exactly the wrong people to be our ubermensches. In large part, they have absolutely no problem-solving skills, that's why they major in polisci or English or worse. That's why math is too hard for (most of) them.
Of course, I've noticed you're using the typical lawyer trick. When you can't argue the facts, resort to ad hominem. Or something.
Why I or my personal psychology is important, I have no idea. I just chalk it up to being important.
Posted by: AmishDude at September 27, 2011 12:37 PM (T0NGe)
Posted by: Roger at September 27, 2011 02:34 PM (tAwhy)
I went to Doc in N.Y., for a flu bug. I was told it would be $75.00 for the office visit. When the visit was over, and told the front desk I would be paying in cash, they looked at me as like I had lost my mind! They weren't even sure they had change on hand, luckily I did, but I told them I would run next door and get some if they didn't. My charge for the office visit? $42.00.
Go figure!
Posted by: jwm at September 27, 2011 12:41 PM (spEu4)
The link above is to one of the best articles I've seen on this subject.
Like so much in this administration, a lot of the problems come from the FDR administrations. The whole idea of employer provided health insurance took root then as a reaction to the wage controls imposed during the war. We know well today that wage and price controls are a very bad idea and only lead to a situation worse than what they try to correct. Worse because they substitution of benefits like health insurance for higher wages lead to the growth of a massive market distorting parasite that should never have existence for non-catastrophic situations.
But once again, because it was too unseemly to put up a real fight, the left kept moving the definition of normal farther and farther in their preferred direction, to the point where hardly anyone living can remember we didn't do things this way and hasn't necessarily been an improvement.
The idea that 1950s prices deliver 1950s health care is nonsense. By that logic, the device you're using to read this should be valued in the millions of dollars instead of being affordable to anyone in the middle-class. Improved and new technologies can introduce new costs but just as often drastically lower the cost of doing some things. (The downside is that technology enables the existence of the bureaucratic behemoth of the health insurance industry.) Diagnostics are ultimately lowering many costs by virtue of early detection and improving accuracy. I can recall when there were just seven locations in the entire US performing MRI services. Now there are thousands and the price of setting up a new facility is a fraction of what it once was, even though the newer systems are much better. We're also seeing the advent of cheap mass produced diagnostic devices that give results in minutes that formerly took days.
We can do vastly more today and that means we can spend vastly more but it also means we can do much of it far better and cheaper. The day when you go to your local drug store and buy a little box that takes a blood sample, determines you have a cancer still so small that surgeon couldn't see if viewing the organ directly, and injects you with a drug to kill the rogue cells and only them, is still a long, long way off. But the potential is there and getting closer.
In terms of technological advancement of medicine, we should be very pleased with our progress since WWII. But in terms of how we've nearly destroyed the business of medicine we should only feel shame.
Posted by: epobirs at September 27, 2011 12:43 PM (kcfmt)
It would be that -- or lower -- if everybody paid cash.
It's simplistic, of course, but those with insurance pay $75 to make up for those that pay $0 or those who, with their insurance, pay $30 for that negotiated rate.
Think about it. You have the flu, you shouldn't need to see a doctor, a PA would be better, in fact. In that case, and in most cases, doctors are "prescription-writing machines".
Posted by: AmishDude at September 27, 2011 12:45 PM (T0NGe)
You're right, of course. (Although an office visit would probably be more expensive today even in a truly free market.)
Posted by: AmishDude at September 27, 2011 12:47 PM (T0NGe)
Posted by: Lonelyconservativeinmi at September 27, 2011 12:49 PM (rZZA3)
Posted by: Lonelyconservativeinmi at September 27, 2011 04:49 PM (rZZA3)
You should call around. Could just be your doc.
Posted by: AmishDude at September 27, 2011 12:50 PM (T0NGe)
Posted by: AmishDude at September 27, 2011 04:45 PM (T0NGe)
I agree AmishDude. I guess what I was trying to get across was that at that point and time my flu was so bad as the threat to be hospitalized for it. A nurse or PA could have done the same as the Doc did. The knee thing was "out-patient", even though I spent all day in their "outpatient" clinic. The other doctors for the knee surgery wanted me in the hospital for 3 days, plus the weeks of rehab, which (the rehab) I was able to do just fine on my own, due to the expertise of the knee Doc and his staff.
I got my moneys worth from both of them, though.
Posted by: jwm at September 27, 2011 01:04 PM (spEu4)
Posted by: AmishDude at September 27, 2011 01:06 PM (T0NGe)
Yes, I understand that. That's why I went with knee specialist. If I had a PA to go to for the flu, I would have done that. The knee specialist was in Texas. The GP Doc was in N.Y. Just goes to show ya how things are different all the hell over. *grins*
Posted by: jwm at September 27, 2011 01:13 PM (spEu4)
But is it an acceptable cost? If the typical office visit, by virtue of improved technology, deeper knowledge, and better means to access that knowledge (which takes us back to improved tech) at the doctor's command, allows for detecting a far greater range of ailments and threats, then aren't we potentially getting far greater value that the increase in cost?
In some cases it is correct to say it used to be cheap because there wasn't much on offer. But we've done more than just learn to treat more diseases. Many things we do far better than the same common procedure in past decades.
I had my appendix out when I was six. (1970) I was laid up for several days and it was a couple of weeks before I could move around freely and comfortably. Now, they have techniques to do the same surgery with a hole so small it barely leaves a detectable scar and so much less abdominal muscle damage the patient is up and around in far less time. This is real progress and if a modern appendectomy costs a bit more after inflation, it's worth it.
It would be preferable if the techniques reduced cost along with the other benefits. I believe that will come but in medicine, like many other fields, finding something that works regardless of cost is step 1. Though I suppose the big win would be if they could actually treat and cure appendicitis rather than yanking it out.
Posted by: epobirs at September 27, 2011 01:27 PM (kcfmt)
Posted by: steevy at September 27, 2011 01:58 PM (fyOgS)
Health care is currently a weird blend of socialism and waste. Costs continue going up 2 or 3 times faster than GDP. There is something screwed up on a fundamental level here.
======
Yes, exactly. A few of the fundamental assumptions of the Law of Supply & Demand are violated with the critical portions of healthcare. If you understand the assumptions and look at why they are not applying in a clean manner, you can find all the answers and make some good guesses at solutions.
Here's a hint, diminishing marginal valuation does not apply to your liver. The price is irrelevant, and you will never take the 2-for-1 sale. When the demand line becomes too steep, the situation is ripe for unethical behavior by those who control supply.
Posted by: jc at September 27, 2011 02:27 PM (i8c5b)
Blame Medicare.
If your Doc accepts Medicare, he CAN'T give you a discount.
Posted by: speedster1 at September 27, 2011 04:41 PM (yeM7r)
Repeal first. Fix the economy. When jobs are coming on strong, then worry about getting government out of the healthcare business. (If Ryan's plan doesn't do that, then it's a total waste of time.)
Posted by: K~Bob at September 27, 2011 07:57 PM (F2TJG)
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Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at September 27, 2011 09:54 AM (8y9MW)