September 12, 2011
— Ace First of all, don't miss the update on NY-9 that CAC posted last night.
A snippet of PPP's analysis in the 47/41 advantage for Republican Turner over Weprin:
One final note on the poll and what perhaps should concern Democrats most of all. 55% of voters in the district report having voted for Obama in 2008, which is the actual percentage of the vote he got in the district. Last year a lot of the races Democrats lost were because their voters didn't show up and the electorate was far more conservative than for a Presidential year. When you lose that way you can say, well, our voters will come back out in 2012 and we'll be fine. But there is no enthusiasm gap here. Obama voters are showing up in the same numbers they did in 2008. But only 65% of them are voting Democratic. That's a really big cause for concern.
It's a bad thing when your base doesn't turn out to vote for you.
It's a much worse thing when your base does turn out... but votes against you.
Regarding Nevada 2. Nevada 2 is the most Republican district in the state, because it excludes the cities. It's everywhere else. Natural conservative territory. Nope! Reno_Dave corrects me -- while the district excludes most of Las Vegas, it includes the Carson City, Sparks, and the biggest little city in the world, Reno.
I assumed that Nevada 2 would be a win, but a PPP poll (and PPP is a Democratic outfit, and does polls for Kos, too) said that the Republican Amodei was only one point ahead of the Democrat Marshall.
CAC has a theory about PPP. His theory is that they do all sorts of skewed polls to hearten Democrats, and claim they're ahead or at least close, except in the final poll, the one that counts, the one that goes into their W-L records when they pimp their accuracy to new clients. Then they get a little more... rigorous.
CAC predicted the final poll in Nevada 2 would show a distinct shift from the previous 1-point gap.
He was right. PPP now puts the race at a 13 point gap, 50-37.
Previously, Sharon Angle expressed interest in running for the seat. This poll finds she would have lost to the Democrat:
Here's one thing the numbers make very clear- Republicans dodged a bullet when Sharron Angle was kept out of the race. Only 24% of voters in the district have a favorable opinion of her to 63% with a negative one and in a hypothetical head to head with Marshall she would trail 47-40. The fact that Amodei polls 20 points better than Angle really makes you wonder what would have happened to Harry Reid with a serviceable opponent.
Sorry to rub that in. But I'm going to continue my crusade, insisting that Candidate Quality and Crossover Appeal matters quite a bit in elections, until it's accepted, and not pooh-poohed in favor of "ideology and cultural affinity with the conservative base are the only things that matter" model.
Posted by: Ace at
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Posted by: Hey.Wheres.Barry at September 12, 2011 09:04 AM (gQLr2)
Posted by: Nevada at September 12, 2011 09:05 AM (zgZzy)
Posted by: polynikes Texan for Romney at September 12, 2011 09:06 AM (PCEZn)
Posted by: George Orwell what knows Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure at September 12, 2011 09:06 AM (AZGON)
So long as we're remembering to include that 'acts like a f'n conservative while in office' part, yeah, appeal and candidate quality. Problem was, we forgot why we were what we were...and that's how we got where we are.
Guess we can't be lazy like that any more. God, I hate politics.
Posted by: DarkLord© sez Obama is a stuttering clusterf--- of a miserable failure
Oh, and F--- Nevada! at September 12, 2011 09:07 AM (GBXon)
After the early voting the Republican was in a big lead.
Posted by: Vic at September 12, 2011 09:07 AM (M9Ie6)
"(today 6:12AM) SACRAMENTO (CBS13) – A big rig loaded with 35,000 pounds of beer has flipped on its side and is leaking."
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
Posted by: Barney Gumble at September 12, 2011 09:07 AM (zgZzy)
Posted by: DarkLord© sez Obama is a stuttering clusterf--- of a miserable failure
Oh, and F--- Nevada! at September 12, 2011 09:08 AM (GBXon)
More on Solyndra and Tesla Motors scandals that may be bigger than Watergate. Listen to the audio. Very compelling. Via Big Government.
That smellÂ… yepÂ… toast.
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at September 12, 2011 09:08 AM (jx2j9)
What NEEDS to happen is that needs to change. Sticking people in positions just because they may be more electable (because they're squishy, usually) is just a shitty situation all around.
Posted by: © Sponge at September 12, 2011 09:08 AM (UK9cE)
Candidate Quality yes, Crossover Appeal not so much.
What matters most of all is that we not have candidates that are bugfuck crazy. Lunatics don't get us any closer to what we want than RINOs do, and there are choices that are "None of the above"
Sharron Angle and Christine O'Donnell are crazy. It's almost enough to make one think that some Dem operative put the bug in their ears to run for office to make ALL Republicans look nuts.
Posted by: brian at September 12, 2011 09:09 AM (y05cf)
Posted by: The Pants On Da Ground Guy at September 12, 2011 09:09 AM (zgZzy)
If Obama is dragging down every candidate, including those in heavily democratic districts, I wonder what will happen when Obama himself is on the ballot
Posted by: Ben at September 12, 2011 09:09 AM (wuv1c)
Posted by: RON PAUL!!!1!!!! at September 12, 2011 09:10 AM (zgZzy)
Posted by: polynikes Texan for Romney at September 12, 2011 09:11 AM (PCEZn)
Posted by: Mark Levin at September 12, 2011 09:12 AM (16S7c)
Posted by: ace at September 12, 2011 09:13 AM (nj1bB)
Posted by: polynikes Texan for Romney at September 12, 2011 09:13 AM (PCEZn)
Posted by: polynikes Texan for Romney at September 12, 2011 01:11 PM (PCEZn)
And Romney has recommended what, exactly? I mean, besides the fact that we should overlook his whole socialized medicine thing that was the basis of the current situation we have ourselves in with Commander Clusterfu*k that he wholeheartedly embraces........
Posted by: © Sponge at September 12, 2011 09:14 AM (UK9cE)
Posted by: Analoculiatus at September 12, 2011 09:14 AM (OlN4e)
CAC has a theory about PPP. His theory is that they do all sorts of skewed polls to hearten Democrats, and claim they're ahead or at least close, except in the final poll, the one that counts, the one that goes into their W-L records when they pimp their accuracy to new clients. Then they get a little more... rigorous.
In my opinion, this is not unique to PPP. Most of the entertainment-pollsters do this.
Posted by: Truman North, TPT at September 12, 2011 09:15 AM (G5JPI)
Posted by: The MFM at September 12, 2011 09:15 AM (zgZzy)
Posted by: Snooki at September 12, 2011 09:16 AM (zgZzy)
Posted by: Have Blue at September 12, 2011 09:18 AM (IKTC8)
Posted by: Just Say No To Grand Bargains at September 12, 2011 09:18 AM (EL+OC)
Posted by: Sub-Tard at September 12, 2011 09:18 AM (0M3AQ)
[until it's accepted, and not pooh-poohed]
That's a little raw, don't you think?
P**h-p**hed. That's better, tone it down a bit.
Posted by: Bat Chain Puller at September 12, 2011 09:19 AM (SCcgT)
Posted by: cherry pi, terrorist hostage taking SOB at September 12, 2011 09:19 AM (OhYCU)
Posted by: Sub-Tard at September 12, 2011 01:18 PM (0M3AQ)
Nope. I just think they are idiots. Occam's razor, and I hope they fall on it.
Posted by: Analoculiatus at September 12, 2011 09:21 AM (OlN4e)
Posted by: polynikes Texan for Romney at September 12, 2011 09:21 AM (PCEZn)
Posted by: buzz at September 12, 2011 09:22 AM (i27M5)
Posted by: Analoculiatus at September 12, 2011 09:23 AM (OlN4e)
Posted by: Quilly Mammoth at September 12, 2011 09:24 AM (16S7c)
Posted by: cherry pi, terrorist hostage taking SOB at September 12, 2011 09:25 AM (OhYCU)
>>>And Romney has recommended what, exactly?
This is a joke, right? Did his 59-frikkin'-point plan miss your RSS feed?
C'mon, guys really. You talk about Romney like a dog, I won't bother to defend him because I don't really like him either. But the errors and omissions around here are getting left-oid in their silliness and perpetutation.
Posted by: spongeworthy at September 12, 2011 09:26 AM (rplL3)
Posted by: blaster at September 12, 2011 09:26 AM (l5dj7)
Posted by: blaster at September 12, 2011 09:27 AM (l5dj7)
Sorry, Charlie, I think you need to find another blog. Oh, wait...
Posted by: ParisParamus at September 12, 2011 09:27 AM (Iy+mp)
I don't think so, since Romney doesn't have any ideological or cultural affinity with the conservative base.
He's from frikkin' NEW ENGLAND. We don't elect conservatives up here.
Posted by: brian at September 12, 2011 09:28 AM (y05cf)
Great, then let's just run Huntsman, because his crossover appeal reaches all the way to Michael Moore.
Politics IS ideology for fuck's sake.
Posted by: Sgt. York at September 12, 2011 09:28 AM (B6nJc)
Posted by: blaster at September 12, 2011 09:28 AM (l5dj7)
Posted by: Chris R, NY-9 resident at September 12, 2011 09:28 AM (hGTfi)
The only man who can beat Hillary!
Posted by: huerfano at September 12, 2011 09:29 AM (kD+se)
Posted by: cherry pi, terrorist hostage taking SOB at September 12, 2011 09:30 AM (OhYCU)
I have nothing to add, I'm just going to continue the trend of quoting this and posting a comment.
Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at September 12, 2011 09:30 AM (FkKjr)
Yea, but whaddabout the hair?
Posted by: Tony Manero at September 12, 2011 09:31 AM (136wp)
Posted by: Reno_Dave at September 12, 2011 09:31 AM (OL4L4)
Posted by: Truman North, TPT at September 12, 2011 09:31 AM (G5JPI)
Posted by: kansas at September 12, 2011 09:31 AM (mka2b)
makes you wonder what would have happened to Harry Reid with a serviceable opponent.
That sounds so dirty
Posted by: Ma Bell at September 12, 2011 09:32 AM (H/MnC)
The only man who can beat Hillary!
Yea, I tried but she got me with a kick to the 'nads
Posted by: William Jefferson Clinton at September 12, 2011 09:32 AM (136wp)
Posted by: cherry pi, terrorist hostage taking SOB at September 12, 2011 09:32 AM (OhYCU)
Posted by: ace at September 12, 2011 09:33 AM (nj1bB)
Posted by: Navycopjoe aka uber palinista at September 12, 2011 09:33 AM (Sp2sM)
Posted by: Reno_Dave at September 12, 2011 09:33 AM (OL4L4)
Posted by: Marlowe at September 12, 2011 09:33 AM (oWVQY)
How did you know? How did you know!
Posted by: The Robot Devil at September 12, 2011 09:33 AM (136wp)
Posted by: © Sponge at September 12, 2011 01:08 PM (UK9cE)
Agree. I will defend my conservative core values and vote for the person who comes as close to that as possible. This winning at any cost got us the likes of Miss Lindsey, McCain, and Mike Castle. If Christine O'Donnell, Sharon Angle, etc. did anything, they helped expose the RINO/beltway-elitist mentality in the repub party. There are definitely more people able to distinguish that now than before 2010.
Posted by: Soona - Tearorrist at September 12, 2011 09:34 AM (zK4pP)
Posted by: ace at September 12, 2011 09:34 AM (nj1bB)
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) is tired beyond tired of the trolls at September 12, 2011 09:35 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: Chris R, NY-9 resident at September 12, 2011 09:35 AM (hGTfi)
Nothing. There's a reason she won the primary. Her biggest problem is that she was never the Nevada Gaming Commissioner - as Reid was - and Reid called in every last political favor that was ever owed to him. The Leftist political machine cranked into overdrive out here, and those idiots who think Sue Lowden or Danny Tarkanian would have won don't know Nevada politics. They would have also been beaten, thanks in no small part to "Republicans for Reid". Huge names in the gaming industry were strong-armed into endorsing Reid, and many of them bussed their employees to the polls. The election was everything short of being outright fixed.
Posted by: Sgt. York at September 12, 2011 09:36 AM (B6nJc)
Posted by: Sgt. York
No, that's obtuse. You don't elected philosophers. You don't elect intellectuals. You elect politicians who have to raise money and craft platforms that will resonate with the voters at any given time.
Posted by: weft cut-loop at September 12, 2011 09:36 AM (s1vtf)
Posted by: blaster at September 12, 2011 09:37 AM (l5dj7)
After many repetitions it starts to seem unexpected.
Posted by: s☺mej☼e at September 12, 2011 09:37 AM (McHnx)
The Tea Party bullpen is deeper now.
Posted by: cherry pi, terrorist hostage taking SOB at September 12, 2011 09:39 AM (OhYCU)
Attention, all States of the United Republic: We have assumed control
We have assumed control
We have assumed control
Posted by: The SCOAMF Race at September 12, 2011 09:40 AM (136wp)
I think we're all in favor of crossover appeal.
What I hate is appealing to crossover, if you get my drift.
In other words, don't be chummy with the other side for electability.
Posted by: soothsayer at September 12, 2011 09:41 AM (sqkOB)
What he said. Though it's just as much of Reid having been Nevada Gaming Commissioner as it is his place in the Senate. Angle ran the kind of campaign you would run if you were running for a state position, and practically stayed out of Vegas all together (which was a mistake).
/lives in Storey County
Posted by: Sgt. York at September 12, 2011 09:41 AM (B6nJc)
Posted by: NII at September 12, 2011 09:41 AM (48wze)
Perry better have good answers ready for SS tonight.
Also, I know it's a joint CNN/Tea Party debate, who are the moderators? Is it John UHHHH King again. Is it going to be the same gay quiz show format or are they actually going to have good questions and good moderators?
Posted by: Ben at September 12, 2011 09:43 AM (wuv1c)
Posted by: Sgt. York
No, that's obtuse. You don't elected philosophers. You don't elect intellectuals. You elect politicians who have to raise money and craft platforms that will resonate with the voters at any given time."
Like I said, Ideology.
Ideology is NOT philosophy, Sparky.... THAT'S the definition of obtuse.
People vote for those candidates who best represent their viewpoints and will draft legislation based on those viewpoints...ideology.
Posted by: Sgt. York at September 12, 2011 09:43 AM (B6nJc)
Also, I know it's a joint CNN/Tea Party debate, who are the moderators? Is it John UHHHH King again. Is it going to be the same gay quiz show format or are they actually going to have good questions and good moderators?
Hope springs eternal in the human breast - Lucy Van PeltPosted by: The Robot Devil at September 12, 2011 09:44 AM (136wp)
Pardon me. I've been stung by the smooth talkers giving me the wink, wink, during campaign, then giving me the silent treatment thereafter. This candidate crisis which cost us elections was caused by the Republican establishment. If you want to bitch about a bunch of disorganized armatures nominating rubes that lose elections, be prepared to listen to my bitch about Republican operators who do more than their share to push this train to Socialism Central. You want support for polished and vetted establishment types, no problem., give me quality candidates whose resume isn't full of progressive policy.
Posted by: MikeTheMoose Camellia Sinensis Operative at September 12, 2011 09:44 AM (0q2P7)
No pudding plans for NV2 here, but I'm ready to grip rip and dip for NY-9.
Posted by: GnuBreed at September 12, 2011 09:45 AM (ENKCw)
Thank you, time to open some wine spritzers and celebrate! Maybe even open some pretzels!
Posted by: Jon Hunstman at September 12, 2011 09:46 AM (136wp)
Posted by: cherry pi, terrorist hostage taking SOB at September 12, 2011 01:39 PM (OhYCU)
The more people become familiar with the simple message of the Tea Party, the more attractive it becomes. The change is happening, maybe slower than we'd prefer, but it's happening.
One thing is for sure. The beltway mentality is not going to tell me how to pick candidates to support or who to finally vote for. I think that viewpoint is spreading too, re: Rick Perry's continued popularity even when he touches the third rail.
Posted by: Soona - Tearorrist at September 12, 2011 09:47 AM (zK4pP)
Posted by: MikeTheMoose Camellia Sinensis Operative at September 12, 2011 09:47 AM (0q2P7)
>>>Nothing. There's a reason she won the primary. Her biggest problem is that she was never the Nevada Gaming Commissioner - as Reid was - and Rid called in every last political favor that was ever owed to him. T
Meh, she won a primary at a time when anti-incumbent/establishment was at it's zenith.
People in the Republican primaries were desparate for anyone who wasn't a professional politician.
In many cases, it screwed us over (O'Donnell, Angle). We almost got a bunch of other terrible candidates but we lucked out that their skeletons were put on full display before they became the nominees. Anyone remember that Medina character from Texas who was a Tea Party favorite and then was outed as a 9/11 Truther by Glenn Beck.
Had we nominated Tarkanin (spelling) in Nevada or Castle in Deleware, we would have had two extra senate seats. Sure one of them would have been a squish, but it would still be an R vote on major issue.
The only primary victory that was risky and that I don't regret was Joe Miller. I still like the guy and hope he runs against Begich.
Posted by: Ben at September 12, 2011 09:47 AM (wuv1c)
Posted by: jeannebodine, sum b*tch at September 12, 2011 09:47 AM (nvlAW)
Posted by: Ian S. at September 12, 2011 09:48 AM (tqwMN)
And Reid is a stuttering clusterfuck gaffe machine himself. There is something weird that goes on in the electorate with repub women in not totally red states, the judgmentalism just seems abnormally heightened, even among republicans.
Posted by: Guy Fawkes at September 12, 2011 09:49 AM (PEwFJ)
How will the MFM spin it? Tell us.
Posted by: I'm in a New York state of mind at September 12, 2011 09:50 AM (4sQwu)
>>>The moderator is noted Celebrity Jeopardy player Wolf Blitzer. I hope the candidates answer in the form of a question.
you're f*cking kidding me right? Wolf Blitzer?? God the GOP deserves what it gets.
I've said it a million times. They should do the debates internally and then offer the broadcast rights to major networks.
Why does the GOP insist on doing the MSM's work for it.
Posted by: Ben at September 12, 2011 09:50 AM (wuv1c)
Posted by: ParisParamus Toll Booth at September 12, 2011 09:51 AM (Iy+mp)
Posted by: Reno_Dave at September 12, 2011 09:51 AM (OL4L4)
Posted by: nevergiveup at September 12, 2011 09:51 AM (i6RpT)
>>>Nothing. There's a reason she won the primary. Her biggest problem is that she was never the Nevada Gaming Commissioner - as Reid was - and Rid called in every last political favor that was ever owed to him. T
"Meh, she won a primary at a time when anti-incumbent/establishment was at it's zenith."
90% of incumbents were re-elected. Angle didn't run in a primary against any incumbents. Comments makes literally no sense.
Posted by: Sgt. York at September 12, 2011 09:51 AM (B6nJc)
Posted by: JackStraw at September 12, 2011 09:52 AM (TMB3S)
Posted by: Sub-Tard at September 12, 2011 09:52 AM (0M3AQ)
Not really. Harry Reid and the MFM collaborated to destroy Sharron Angle, even labeling her as pro-rape. The other Republican candidates would have received the same smear campaign. (It worked, which is why Obama will use the same strategy in 2012.)
Notwithstanding that, Angle was a terrible candidate. Her entire campaign was attacking Harry Reid ineffectually, without ever explaining what she was going to do if elected.
Posted by: Gregory of Yardale at September 12, 2011 09:54 AM (PLvLS)
But what the polls can not measure is the GOTV effort. Sadly the unions in NV put paid to that bill and she lost Reno and Vegas.
Posted by: Vic at September 12, 2011 09:54 AM (M9Ie6)
I remain unconvinced using language like Ponzi scheme is the way to go to win that crossover appeal. Time will tell.
Perry is the only nominee that compeates as well as Romney with Obama so far. In fact Perry does better then Romney against him in some polls. Your point is irrelevant until the polls show otherwise.
Posted by: AuthorLMendez (Romneybots: Romney's So Much Smarter!) at September 12, 2011 09:56 AM (yAor6)
Posted by: nevergiveup at September 12, 2011 09:56 AM (i6RpT)
Posted by: Texan Economist at September 12, 2011 09:57 AM (y3A3g)
Ace, I don't know any reasonable person arguing that this is not true. But the base is tired of constantly being taken for a ride by the reach-across-the-aisle appeasers and their big-government enablers.
The only way a restoration of liberty can happen is if one of the two main parties is taken over and becomes responsive to freedom-loving citizens. And right now, the momentum is all with the Tea Party. We are going to continue to push the limits of electability to find out where that sweet spot is.
So quit yelling at us to stop primary-ing squishes if the conservative candidate fails to meet your electability standards. We need the RINO establishment running scared of people, not the other way around.
Posted by: Arms Merchant at September 12, 2011 09:57 AM (jx6di)
Posted by: nevergiveup at September 12, 2011 01:56 PM (i6RpT)
he won't lose the jews but a dent in their support helps
Posted by: AuthorLMendez (Romneybots: Romney's So Much Smarter!) at September 12, 2011 09:57 AM (yAor6)
Posted by: nevergiveup at September 12, 2011 09:59 AM (i6RpT)
But the nuts have labeled anyone who won't carry all their water all the time as "RINO," and sooner or later they will find themselves with a tiny - but very, very pure - minority that never compromises anything and never wins anything.
Posted by: Adjoran at September 12, 2011 10:00 AM (VfmLu)
Posted by: Reno_Dave at September 12, 2011 10:00 AM (OL4L4)
Posted by: JackStraw at September 12, 2011 10:01 AM (TMB3S)
Posted by: Soona - Tearorrist at September 12, 2011 10:03 AM (zK4pP)
Posted by: Honey Badger at September 12, 2011 10:04 AM (GvYeG)
At this stage last cycle McCain was buried in the polls and almost broke. How did that work out? Polls mean dick. Winning primaries is what counts. So far Romney is winning in NH and FL.
i'm confused so you advocate to see who is electable but then look down on my point that polling shows Perry is just as electable as Romney? which one is it. polls matter or don't. are you Romneybots flip-flopping as much as him now?
I think I'll hang on to my irrelevant point for just a little longer.
once again the Romneybots with the snark, i'll have fun tasting your tears
Posted by: AuthorLMendez (Romneybots: Romney's So Much Smarter!) at September 12, 2011 10:04 AM (yAor6)
Posted by: AuthorLMendez (Romneybots: Romney's So Much Smarter!) at September 12, 2011 10:05 AM (yAor6)
Man, is Perry suffering blowback... all the way to 1st place, baby!
Posted by: Ducatisti rides faster when thinking of Perry at September 12, 2011 10:07 AM (KYE7u)
Posted by: karenm at September 12, 2011 10:07 AM (Xnxty)
Posted by: Honey Badger at September 12, 2011 02:04 PM (GvYeG)
Why do you give a shit if he jumps on his dick?
Posted by: robtr at September 12, 2011 10:09 AM (MtwBb)
Linda McMahon!! She is going to run for the CT Senate seat again. If she couldn't win the first time with $50 million dollars what makes her think she will win against a democrat.
McMahon is CT's Sharon Angle. You hear she wants to run and you say "oy vey" how unlucky we are.
Good thing asthma will be cured when the busway is built.
Posted by: pj at September 12, 2011 10:11 AM (YxPIm)
Posted by: JackStraw at September 12, 2011 10:11 AM (TMB3S)
Posted by: Honey Badger at September 12, 2011 10:13 AM (GvYeG)
Posted by: toby928™ at September 12, 2011 10:14 AM (GTbGH)
Posted by: Gregory of Yardale at September 12, 2011 10:15 AM (PLvLS)
Hey Moron and Moronettes,
Missed ya'll as I have been away since Friday. Wondering if this is the best thread to jump into... :p
Posted by: Nora at September 12, 2011 10:16 AM (VxqUc)
Posted by: Honey Badger at September 12, 2011 10:16 AM (GvYeG)
Posted by: pj at September 12, 2011 02:11 PM (YxPIm)
disagree, Mcmahon came back down 20 points against a CT war hero (yes he lied and all that but CT still hung on to him as some respected hero) and made it close. With an open seat, she could win this time. and since when do we have a problem with people being rich?
I could say are Perry's supporters as dense as his scholastic record showed him to be but I won't. Petty name calling is a waste of time.
I could say your a fucking arrogant elitist sounding scumbag who sounds a lot like a Devid Brooks lentlicker but I won't. Petty name calling is a waste of time.
Posted by: AuthorLMendez (Romneybots, The New Palinista) at September 12, 2011 10:18 AM (3XDPM)
Posted by: Honey Badger at September 12, 2011 10:20 AM (GvYeG)
My friend Mark Ang has worked on several special and regular elections, helping with NY-9 right now, helped during the CA-36 race, the Tran-Sanchez battle, and helped in Nevada last year. He said the Angle GOTV was one of the worst operations he had seen, hands down, and had warned me against my better judgement she was doomed three weeks before the election. He also warned me not to be too hopeful about CA-36, but at least the GOTV operation was top-notch.
Angle's circle doomed her more than any wacky statements she made along the way.
Posted by: CAC at September 12, 2011 10:25 AM (8xUhs)
Posted by: David Brooks at September 12, 2011 10:25 AM (PLvLS)
Posted by: Honey Badger at September 12, 2011 10:27 AM (GvYeG)
Perry-Romney 2012. You heard it here first.
In 1980, Reagan and Bush went after each other, Bush's "voodoo economics" sounds eerily similar to Romney's "Perry, Slayer of Old People" rhetoric.
Oh, Romney won't do it because he really thinks Perry is that extreme?
Desperation against a SCoaMF can do strange things:
"In September 1980, former Watergate Scandal prosecutor Leon Jaworski accepted a position as honorary chairman of Democrats for Reagan.
Five months earlier, Jaworski had harshly criticized Reagan as an 'extremist;' he said after accepting the chairmanship, 'I would rather have a competent extremist than an incompetent moderate.'"
Posted by: CAC at September 12, 2011 10:32 AM (8xUhs)
Sorry to rub that in. But I'm going to continue my crusade, insisting that Candidate Quality and Crossover Appeal matters quite a bit in elections, until it's accepted, and not pooh-poohed in favor of "ideology and cultural affinity with the conservative base are the only things that matter" model.
Ace,
C'mon, that is a huge straw-man. Sure, there are some few righties who don't care about "electability", but they are few and far between.
But when the party's version of "electability" is putting up a democrat as a republican - particularly in a conservative district - they have nobody to blame but themselves when that person loses in the primary to an "unelectable" conservative.
In other words, the problem is not the base putting up unelectable candidates (how often does that really happen?). It is that the establishment takes the base for granted in an open seat and selects someone completely unacceptable to the base.
That's not to say that the base always gets it right, but c'mon. (And yes, I realize that your "campaign", such as it is, is aimed primarily at Palin supporters right now).
And, frankly, can't you make the argument that every candidate that loses was "unelectable"? when Dole lost to Clinton, was it b/c the base chose an "unelectable" candidate? when McCain lost to Obama - was it b/c he was "unelectable"?
This argument usually tends to be code for "social conservatives - shut the hell up and do what we say". And, I'm not even a hard core social conservative and I see that. Abortion, Gay Marriage, and other such issues are not my main issues by any means. I don't think you (Ace) are saying that - I think you are concentrating on Palin. But in all reality, we won't know whether or not she is eletable until (if) she enters and starts campaigning. If she does that and her numbers don't move - she is not currently electable. If she jumps in and her numbers start to improve, then perhaps she is not unelectable?
Posted by: Monkeytoe at September 12, 2011 10:37 AM (sOx93)
So PPP produces crap polls to please their clients until they run the risk of getting caught but this result, that they can't get caught on, is God's honest truth?
Posted by: Heorot at September 12, 2011 10:43 AM (Nq/UF)
Perry-Romney 2012. You heard it here first.
The problem with this idea is - what would Romney bring to the ticket?
Romney is not going to give you MA or MI. He isn't a great campaigner, so he is not going to bring excitement or enthusiasm to the ticket. He does nothing for the base.
he doesn't bring any experience that Perry does not have. No foreign policy experience, for instance. He doesn't bring any legislative experience that could be useful.
the VP candidate is usually used as the campaign's attack dog. I can't see Romney in that roll.
I just don't see Perry bringing anything of value to the ticket, unless some claim of conservative/moderate balance - but many other people could bring that and bring something more valuable as well.
Posted by: Monkeytoe at September 12, 2011 10:44 AM (sOx93)
Posted by: Doom at September 12, 2011 10:46 AM (1awZ0)
So PPP produces crap polls to please their clients until they run the risk of getting caught but this result, that they can't get caught on, is God's honest truth?
Posted by: Heorot at September 12, 2011 02:43 PM (Nq/UF)
Pretty much, and they usually rank #1 or #2 in accuracy amongst all pollsters on their finals.
Thats why you will see it jump from say D+1 D+2 TIE D+1 to R+6 once they shift over. Mind you, they also go from Registered Voters to Likely Voters in their sampling, so that could be it.
Posted by: CAC at September 12, 2011 10:49 AM (8xUhs)
Pretty much, and they usually rank #1 or #2 in accuracy amongst all pollsters on their finals.
Thats why you will see it jump from say D+1 D+2 TIE D+1 to R+6 once they shift over. Mind you, they also go from Registered Voters to Likely Voters in their sampling, so that could be it.
So the ballot will have an "but my second choice would be" option so we can test this theory?
Posted by: Heorot at September 12, 2011 11:02 AM (Nq/UF)
Posted by: Durka at September 12, 2011 11:38 AM (QjrRF)
Posted by: steevy at September 12, 2011 11:57 AM (fyOgS)
Posted by: Adjoran at September 12, 2011 12:07 PM (VfmLu)
Posted by: Paul at September 12, 2011 12:39 PM (DsHk0)
Same reason RINOs try to court the favor of the make-believe media. They want to be the cool kids and get invited to rush week. They tell the pollster what they think the pollster wants to hear. Plus I'm leery of these surveys--they tend to phrase the question in a way that intimates that you are a cro-magnon knuckledragger if you like the "rich," "white," "racist" (pick one) TP.
The march through the institutions have made the squishy center think it's un-hip to not be green or mouth platitudes on the importance of diversity and employer recognition of same-sex relationships. Look at corporate America. They have completely caved to the identity group grievance industry. Hell, Boeing has a "gay Pride Month" (June) with admonitions from the diversity commissars to the employees not to make rude comments.
They all have a desperate need to be seen by their cool "friends" as enlightened.
Posted by: Arms Merchant at September 12, 2011 01:43 PM (jx6di)
No offense, Reno, but did you ever ask that asshole about his entirely unconstitutional performance as Chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee back in the 2005 session when, by rewriting parents bill SB109 between sessions with judges looking to further entrench the most corrupt legal community in the nation, he rolled over and showed the leftist-feminist misandrist family law industry his puckered squeakhole and said oh please do me will you please do me?
The little shit is no conservative. He's a political tool and opportunist with a trailing R.
Posted by: Failsafe at September 12, 2011 03:53 PM (Dt0iB)
Posted by: My Lucky Life In and Out of Show Business AudioBook at September 12, 2011 05:22 PM (3Qi/d)
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Posted by: christine at September 13, 2011 08:49 PM (RkJ5/)
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Posted by: Sharron Angle at September 12, 2011 09:03 AM (zgZzy)