1 OK.   You did fool me with this.  Damn this pissed me off for a second.

2 Hey, Jim, care to discuss this poll? 

3

http://tinyurl.com/4yvqkxr

If the Fast and Furious outrage was being properly reported on, that map would be almost entirely red.

4 Yeah, I definitely read the title of the post and started to rush out the door to buy more ammo.

5 That second map is racist.

6 Jim's a little "busy" right now.  I'll have him log in after he gets released from the hospital. 

7 Don't do that shit!

8 5 more troops killed in Afghanistan.

9 They aren't losing voters, they are just becoming more selective in their appeal.  Way more selective.

10 I would vote for Putin over the JEF.

That 56 has a typo.It's 5-6.

11
what happened to our "Boomer" commenter?

12 And anyone who uses intrade knows it's kinda volatile.  Sometimes it does seem to go in the opposite direction of reality, and you wonder if someone blew a few thousand to really puff up a candidate.

I don't get how that's supposed to really help.  Who honestly gives a shit what intrade says?  Unless it's something sudden and out of the blue (like Palin for VP skyrocketing) there's not much to it.

13 That's five, not 85 as it sort of looks like.  Comment fail...

14 What is wrong with New Mexico?

15 Game over.

16 Iowa is 6 electoral votes of grey.  Why in hell do they have so much influence on our primary again?

Oh, and Geraghty or someone at NRO pointed out that Iowa is not even really feeling the unemployment crisis effects.  So wtf? 

17 That PPP poll was just an anaomoly that is being used to try to stoke support with the Dem base.....they know they are likely doomed and any sign of hope they get they will use to rally the base as much as they possibly can.  This is a race for the Republicans and Tea Party to lose.

18 If you still strongly approve of Obama you must A) be approving of his melanin content, cause let's face it in 2012 he will still be black. B) be a socialist C) be so fucking retarded you called up hershey one time cause you found a fucking W in your M&M's.

19 His approval numbers are still frighteningly high for the tremendous failure he is. He should be in the mid-30s tops (his base) and should be trailing Republican candidates by at least 10 points.

20

If the Fast and Furious outrage was being properly reported on, that map would be almost entirely red.

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at August 11, 2011 11:50 AM (YmPwQ)

I'm starting to think it's a good thing they haven't.  It's clearly not going away.  If it explodes in 7-8 months, it works for me.

21

IIRC, the percentage of  tax payers in the US is about 43%.

The percentage  of the US that doesn't pay income tax is about 56%.

 

Hmmmm.....

 

 

22 C) be so fucking retarded you called up hershey one time cause you found a fucking W in your M&M's.

That happens to me ALL THE TIME!

23 New threads usually go up right when I get going! Anyways, not freaking out about PPP. Waiting to see if GOP can shed its stupid party ways. Meanwhile, my heart is turning. I am now thinking that Romney is the way to go. He won't turn the tide on the beast, but nobody can. But maybe he can stop the bleeding.

24 @18 Hah, C is even funnier because Hershey doesn't make M&Ms.

25 Before the troll who trolls trolls piles on, he is down to 50.7% on Intrade. But he's on a bull market in Jakarta.

26 Can we stop freaking about that silly PPP generic ballot poll now? NO!! I'm an anxiety-ridden politics junky! I'm going to be in a panic state until mid-November 2012! And then I'll start panicking again after Thanksgiving!

27 Mitt Romney is such a god damn phony. I can't wait for Rick Perry's stump speeches.

28 It's a shame all those miserable Californians voted with their feet to Nevada and now vote the same way that made California unlivable.

I saw the same lack of self-awareness when I lived in New Hampshire.  Massholes move in, start voting Democrat...

29 There are a lot of States like NC on there they have as toss-up that should be solid red.

30 But but but he personally executed Bin Laden with his harvardlaw hopechange mindthoughts!

31 The only person stupid enough to re-elect Obama is you.

32 There are a lot of States like NC on there they have as toss-up that should be solid red. Posted by: Vic at August 11, 2011 11:56 AM (M9Ie6) IN, NC, FL, and NH, OH, VA should be light red. But, you know, that would show Obama losing out of the gate.

33 If you still strongly approve of Obama you must

A) be approving of his melanin content, cause let's face it in 2012 he will still be black.

B) be a socialist

C) be so fucking retarded you called up hershey one time cause you found a fucking W in your M&M's.

It's funny because it's true.

34

miserable Californians voted with their feet to Nevada and now vote the same way that made California unlivable.

 

They are what is keeping Montana from being Red as well...them and the union drones in Butte.

35

There are a lot of States like NC on there they have as toss-up that should be solid red.

Obama is not going to win Florida either.  Slam dunk. 

36 Even though I know better, I gotta give ya props for makin me the fool for a second and jump starting my heart.

Wow.  56% disapproval.  Sucks to be you B.  Balance the F'n budget, B.

37 Investors! Opportunity of a lifetime! The market in Barack Obama has nearly hit bottom. Act now to buy at these fire-sale prices before the market explodes again!* *Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. All investment involves risk. Do not invest in Barack Obama without consulting your financial advisor.

38 16 Iowa is 6 electoral votes of grey.  Why in hell do they have so much influence on our primary again?

Not much, really.  The Iowa "winner" rarely goes on to win the nomination.

But if you're not in the top 3, then you should fold up your tent.

With the caucus system, though, the voters are actually more committed Republican than in the typical closed primary.

Oh, and Geraghty or someone at NRO pointed out that Iowa is not even really feeling the unemployment crisis effects.  So wtf? 

Posted by: Y-not at August 11, 2011 11:53 AM (5H6zj)

No, he tweeted about Ames, which is a college town. IA's unemployment is pretty low, though. The former Democrat governor started to overspend and we elected a Republican who put the kibosh on that.

39 Florida will not be "undecided" it will go red in 2012. The election is still over a year away. I don't think Obama, in this economy, will even have Ohio by then. But this is because I simply cannot handle the thought of four more years of this commie twit golfing and jetting and (lethal evil rays sent his way).

40 14 What is wrong with New Mexico?

Block voting by the Indian reservations for the Dems, AFAIK.

41 I look at Minnesota first on any electoral-projection map. If it's tagged anything other than Democrat-by-a-lot, the map is broken. "Toss-up" means add seven points to the Democrat in every state.

42 I'm so blue

43 at least new mexico is better than regular mexico......

44

ihateitwhenhedoesthat

 

45

Block voting by the Indian reservations for the Dems, AFAIK.

 

No Votes for Wampum!

46 Florida will not be "undecided" it will go red in 2012. The election is still over a year away. I don't think Obama, in this economy, will even have Ohio by then. But this is because I simply cannot handle the thought of four more years of this commie twit golfing and jetting and (lethal evil rays sent his way).

------

I live down here and Florida's definitely flipped.  Obama doesn't know it yet, but Florida is a lost cause for him.

47 Meanwhile, my heart is turning. I am now thinking that Romney is the way to go.

Why, blaster? 

I don't see that Romney has done anything to help himself lately.  His campaign has been characterized by unforced errors.  And serious errors on policy, not gaffes. 

I don't hate Romney the way most folks here do, but he is really low on my list. 

48 Most of these 'undecideds' are likely just lack of polling this far out.

49 But Minn should be light blue. Posted by: Mallamutt, RINO President for LIfe at August 11, 2011 12:00 PM (OWjjx) Nope, fine where it is. I hedge that Wisconsin and Pennsylvania should be light red as well, but most of the bedwetting ninnies whine incessantly here that "OMGZ UNIONZ/ACORN/ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOP" will throw the elections (when they failed to do so three times in Wisconsin and twice in Pennsylvania). I'll just rub it in to the eeyores later in the cycle when it becomes painfully obvious such cynicism is the result of stagnant brain cell activity.

50 46 at least new mexico is better than regular mexico......


It's sad about NM.  We love it.  So beautiful. 

51
leftnut betting:

Ace's first post will be about BeeJay Carney's vacation hypocrisy.

Any takers?

52 @54: Ace just posted about Perry and then took it down.

53 romney has no fire in his belly....and his hair is has lost it's mojo.......

54 Earlier this week California passed a law that requires their Electors to vote for winner of the Popular Vote.

Imagine the irony if CA goes for Obama but the nation as a whole goes for the Republican candidate.

55 No, he tweeted about Ames, which is a college town. IA's unemployment is pretty low, though.

He quoted both rates at NRO.  "The past year the state has “enjoyed” a very slow, gradual reduction from 6.2 percent unemployment to 6 percent."

8th best u.r. in the country.

56

"Toss-up" means add seven points to the Democrat in every state.

Nonsense, especially in FL, NC, VA, OH, and WI.  I'm also inclined to throw PA and MI into the actual tossup column.  The math, it does not look good for the Dems.

57 Anybody have Ben's e-mail address? That story in the sidebar about the homeless guy with a PhD is not quite accurate.

58 It's sad about NM.  We love it.  So beautiful.

-----

New Mexico is such a terrible name for a state.  When the license plate has to have a comma, then "U.S.A." after your state's name to avoid any confusion... you've failed naming your state.

59 romney has no fire in his belly....and his hair is has lost it's mojo....... *scratches out phoenixgirl's eyes in fit of jealous rage*

60
Another circle-jerk fantasy post about Perry's-almost-candidacy? Didn't see that coming.

61

leftnut betting:

 

I'd bet them both that it won't be about Iftar Dinner and the concurrent washing of State Dept websites to rename Israeli and Jewish lands as anything but Israeli / Jewish.

62 Rush: "After communism comes alcoholism"

63

Imagine the irony if CA goes for Obama but the nation as a whole goes for the Republican candidate.

Oh my God that would be sweet.

d'oh!

64 Imagine the irony if CA goes for Obama but the nation as a whole goes for the Republican candidate. please please please please

65 New Mexico is such a terrible name for a state. When the license plate has to have a comma, then "U.S.A." after your state's name to avoid any confusion... you've failed naming your state. Posted by: Johnny at August 11, 2011 12:06 PM (iT/Iy) Yeah, what a stupid name.

66

Ace a couple of days ago said something about "the dog that didn't bark," which is a useful way of talking about important events that are really non-events.   No poor Hispanics or Hmongs or whites rioting at State Fair in Milwaukee is a "dog that didn't bark."   No anti-war marches by lefties when Obama bombs Libya is a "dog that didn't bark."  

Another "dog that doesn't bark" is vocal support for Obama among regular people.   I can't remember the last time I heard someone in my large law office (400+ employees just here in Milwaukee) say anything supportive about President Obama.   I hear lots of critical things, but no one is vocally defending the guy.

The point is:  as bad as the President's poll numbers are, I think they are actually worse.   I think that there are a lot of people who might, when responding to a computer or a telephone pollster, still say they support Obama over a generic Republican.   But when push comes to shove, they don't really support him, can't really defend him, and won't really go out of their way to show up to work for him, contribute to him, or vote for him.   So when a poll says "adults" and you'd normally subtract a few percentage points, I'd subtract a lot more.  

The upshot:  now is not the time to nominate a squishy Republican (Romney?).   Now is the time to go for it and get ourselves a real conservative in the White House so we can start saving our country.

67 Romney lost to McCain last time.  Let that sink in.

68 cherry, in "1984" big brother even made the alcohol taste bad

69

>>>CNN piles on, finding him losing to Rudy Giuliani (why they polled him I haven't a clue...

Why not? We could do a lot worse. H doesn't care if people like him and he won't put up with any of the coming societal breakdown/zombie apocalypse garbage like the Brits have. I'd take him over Romney in a flash. Perry too.

70 Job creation not keeping pace with number of foreign work visas issued each month?  Really?  So this monthÂ’s jobs numbers are good?

71 OT but is there anything more annoying than someone using a fucking cell phone in a public restroom?

72 I live down here and Florida's definitely flipped.  Obama doesn't know it yet, but Florida is a lost cause for him.

Posted by: Johnny at August 11, 2011 12:03 PM (iT/Iy)

I know, Johnny...I'm here with ya. Shhhhh. Don't tell Barky.

73
Romney lost to McCain last time.

Because of Mike Huckabee. If you remember, wait...brb..

74

Oh, wait a tick.

I meant

Oh F* you CAC! Do you work for the company that makes my BP drugs?

75 I'd take him over Romney in a flash.

Hmmm... I might actually go for Rudy over Mitt as well.  But it's not going to happen. 

76 I know, Johnny...I'm here with ya. Shhhhh. Don't tell Barky.

-------

The demos have totally changed in the last few years.

77 OT but is there anything more annoying than someone using a fucking cell phone in a public restroom? Having Obama who is a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure as president.

78

Florida went deep red in 2010. We have an R gov (absolutely hated by the lefties, btw) and an R supermajority in the state legislature. We got rid of Grayson and elected Allen West and Marco Rubio. Florida won't be a problem.

Heh... but then we still have the likes of Corinne Brown, but redistricting would likely put an end to the likes of her.

 

79 The upshot:  now is not the time to nominate a squishy Republican (Romney?).   Now is the time to go for it and get ourselves a real conservative in the White House so we can start saving our country.

As much as I agree with you, isn't this what the Democrats did in 2008?  Granted he was a "closet" Socialist.

80 69, I work in a law office as well, in Philly of all places. I do have a few O-bot secretaries here, in fact, one of them has the Obama family portrait hanging in her cubicle (which I have always found to be rather disturbing). Nobody is openly defending Zero, but if you dare to make a critical comment while one of the 'bots is around, prepare to get an earful of kool-aid.

81 81 Touche

82
If you recall the final weeks of the primaries, when the reality of McCain becoming the nominee was before us, we were thoroughly disappointed.

And Romney, in the final weeks, was looking/sounding better and better. We KNEW McCain was the wrong man. He was so wrong that we took a second look at Mitt Romney.

But Huckabee saddled us with McCain.

83

OT but is there anything more annoying than someone using a fucking cell phone in a public restroom?

 

Yes.

84 65 Rush: "After communism comes alcoholism"

So, Bambi has stolen the Russian secrets for alcoholism and despair?

85 now is not the time to nominate a squishy Republican (Romney?) What's with the question mark? There is no doubt he is a phony squish.

86 Posted by: Mr Pink at August 11, 2011 12:09 PM (/RReS)

O/T to your O/T:  Used to happen to me at work all of the time, woman in the next stall chatting away.  I was very thankful at those times, and only at those times, that my embarrassing bathroom noises were going to be heard by someone, the person to whom they were speaking.  "Wait, are you calling me from the shitter?  Ewwwww...."

87 Something on that homeless physicist doesn't make sense to me. 

If you sell everything to save your parents' house, why not live in that house?  With his (purported) background, he could make money free-lancing as a scientific editor or grant writer.  I'm not saying it would be easy, but he wouldn't be living in a shelter 

88 What is wrong with New Mexico?

Posted by: nickless at August 11, 2011 11:52 AM (MMC8r)

Sante Fe hippies.

89 He quoted both rates at NRO.  "The past year the state has “enjoyed” a very slow, gradual reduction from 6.2 percent unemployment to 6 percent."

8th best u.r. in the country.

Posted by: Y-not at August 11, 2011 12:06 PM (5H6zj)

Republican governors will do that.

The economy is farming so it doesn't tend to have the wild swings of other states. Despite the talk of ethanol, it's only a few well-heeled farm groups that benefit from that, soybeans are a huge cash crop.  Also, Iowa hemorrhages population, so if you can't find a job, you aren't going to stay.

But even with a low unemployment rate, independents in IA have had it with Obama, which is encouraging.

90 3 - Thank you for posting that again.

Ace?  Co-bloggers?  Can we get a thread on this?

91

But Huckabee saddled us with McCain.

 

We helped!

92 The development of Art over the centuries.

93 I clicked on the comments section to call BS - I did not believe it for a second. There is no way his approval is up. Then I saw you were trying to trick us - silly boy!

94 57: further proof that California has lost its collective mind, but OTOH Rs that live there should feel like their vote has more chance of counting in 2012 if the law is upheld.

95 I think OdipO isn't exactly secure in NV either.  They went pretty solid for Guv there and we don't know the real count for that senator race with the union casino shenanigans.

96 "Wait, are you calling me from the shitter? Ewwwww...." Posted by: Theresa D., your favorite TPT, and you know it! at August 11, 2011 12:14 PM (Zgfnd) You don't want to know where I uploaded this thread then...

97 @54: Ace just posted about Perry and then took it down.
Jim's seal SEAL brother-in-law threatened to kill Ace using a toothbrush if he posted any pro-Perry stuff.

98 I wonder what would have to happen for Obama's approval ratings to go back up...

99

You're all alcholic, racist, bible thumping, kitteh jugglers.

 

100 Rick Perry can take down posts on AoSHQ. With his mind. #rickperryfacts

101

But, but ... The Won!

And those pant creases!

Oh, the humanity!

102 As much as I agree with you, isn't this what the Democrats did in 2008?  Granted he was a "closet" Socialist.

Yes; But, socialism ruins a country. Conservatism saves it. Would, after Carter, you recommended Baker instead of Reagan, because Baker was good at compromise?

103

finding him losing to Rudy Giuliani (why they polled him I haven't a clue)

They poll him because the only phone numbers they have for polling purposes have New York area codes.

104 BTW, independent support dropping like a stone to 31% (at this link from last night's ONT: Actually, down to 31%. )

105
AoS should start its own 'White House Picture of the Day.'

for instance: p-chop Obama in London stoking the mobs

or: p-chop Obama fighting a Japanese Tsunami

106 103 You're all alcholic, racist, bible thumping, kitteh jugglers. Posted by: dananjcon at August 11, 2011 12:19 PM (8ieXv) Well, who WOULDN'T want to be able to juggle kittehs while buzzed and thumping the bible? (Not a racist, though.)

107 Earlier this week California passed a law that requires their Electors to vote for winner of the Popular Vote.

Imagine the irony if CA goes for Obama but the nation as a whole goes for the Republican candidate.

The insanity of that is, that, it puts California back in play, by campaigning in Texas.

108 OT: On 5/13/2011, Defense Secretary Gates says that releasing information about the OBL raid threatens the safety of Navy SEALs and their families, making them targets for terrorists.

I blame Obama.

109 You don't want to know where I uploaded this thread then... Peep show?

110 By the way- maybe I just missed it in the comments, but has anyone mentioned that Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure?

111 My take on wehre we are in a socio-economic-political context is that the economy is cold, below freezing, and Obama is in Harvard Yard with his tongue stuck to the flagpole of socialism.

112  OT: On 5/13/2011, Defense Secretary Gates says that releasing information about the OBL raid threatens the safety of Navy SEALs and their families, making them targets for terrorists.

I wonder if that's going to be in the movie.

113 It was a black kitteh.

114 FL voter here that was part of thr 49% that voted for Mac in 08, and votred for Rubio in 2010. FL was the 1st of the swing states to turn on Obama, that said his approval down here is better then in places like OH and PA. In those states, Obama's been polling low to mid 40s, here he's at the mid to high 40s but still doing bad. the state has a very unpopular Gov but they love Rubio so far. They also hate Nelson but he's competitive in polling, and I'll do everything I can to make sure he joins Obama in the unemployment line after next year's elections. FL also has a 10% unemployment rate which is down from 12% thanks to Gov Scott who has been a personal pleaseant surprise as a Gov the last half a year. I'd say FL leans red.

115 I would like to know who these 43 percent of cock suckers might be.

116 Imagine the irony if CA goes for Obama but the nation as a whole goes for the Republican candidate.

Won't happen. The law doesn't go into effect unless half of the electoral votes will be cast that way. It's just theater.

117

Oh, and Geraghty or someone at NRO pointed out that Iowa is not even really feeling the unemployment crisis effects.  So wtf? 

My son works for Rockwell Collins in Cedar Rapids. They do avionics for 99% of the planes in America including a monopoly on US Govt. aviation. Their corporate headquarters (aka: The Crystal Palace) represents a higher economic value than the rest of the State of Iowa combined, and is currently underwritten by govt. military contracts. When B.O. "cuts" their budget they lay off a few, reassign others, continue with projects and research still funded.....but they havn't been hit by our recession or it's second dip SO far.

The state of Iowa and their politics is basically 2 distinct camps: farmers wanting subsidies and engineers/manufacturers working on aviation contracts. No candidate can promise more military contracts....so they campaign in Iowa on "ethanol subsidies".

118 I would like to know who these 43 percent of cock suckers might be.

Walk around NYC with a Palin t-shirt.  They'll find you.

119 I'm a Palin fan, but she's not running. Perry is not running yet, and if he enters the race then maybe that changes things. I still believe that executive experience is important, so sorry for Rep. Bachmann, much as she says the right things, she is not the right candidate for me. Rules out Newt, too, not like his candidacy is going anywhere. Also Ron Paul. And Rick Santorum. And Thaddeus McCotter. And that guy who is gay in New Hampshire. That leaves the governors, and Huntsman is just a no out of the gate. I originally thought Gary Johnson was interesting, but he isn't, really. Herman Cain *is* interesting, and he has executive experience, but politics is politics, and his lack of experience in politics is more of a cost than a benefit. That brings us down to Pawlenty and Romney. Pawlenty has the competent and not scary bloc nailed down, but the "not exciting" vibe has not changed at all. That leaves Romney pretty much, and the rap on him is what, exactly? He's a phony? In what way? What about him is not real? He's conservative, and I don't see any trillion dollar spending binges in him. He's not going to come in and promise to end the Department of Education, but as often been pointed out, Reagan could not end it. I don't see anything specifically *wrong* with Romney, and he has some practical aspects that are not bad either - like he can raise a lot of money, which will be necessary, and he has name recognition, which if you don't have it, costs a lot of money. And, unlike many other candidates (and/or their staffers) he's smart enough not to try to trash talk Palin and her supporters.

120

Earlier this week California passed a law that requires their Electors to vote for winner of the Popular Vote.

Imagine the irony if CA goes for Obama but the nation as a whole goes for the Republican candidate.

that would take about 2/3 of the states to have that law and only a few have passed it. whoever wins CA (which will be Obama) in 2012 will get the 55 electoral votes. MA & NJ I know for sure joined in with that law but they're not close to getting enough states to join in...yet.

121 Rick Perry can launch a DOS attack and take down any website he chooses... using only his comb and a furrowed brow. #perryfacts

122

124 I'm a Palin fan, but she's not running. Perry is not running yet, and if he enters the race then maybe that changes things.

Check the post above.

123 118 Are these polls any indication that Obama is a miserable clusterfuck of a failure?

Posted by: Jumbo Jogging Shrimp tea party terrorist at August 11, 2011 12:26 PM (qjUnn)

Eh, I kbnow it doesn't have the same ring but can we use OMC-FF going forward.

(for us typing and sausage finger-challenged)

124 but can we use OMC-FF going forward. I think that is the aircraft tail code for the AoSHQ corporate jet.

125

Posted by: blaster at August 11, 2011 12:29 PM (l5dj7)

the Romneycare thing is a none-starter for a lot of folks. They also don't perticularly like his squishy stances when he's out campaigning or his flip-flopping. BUT Reagan himself didn't have the best record as Governor and learned from that exp. to be a better executive as President. THAT SAID, I will not vote for Romney no way, no how in a primary. I'll do whatever I can to make sure he's not the nom, BUT If he wins I'll bust my ass making sure he beats Obama.

126 Won't happen. The law doesn't go into effect unless half of the electoral votes will be cast that way. It's just theater.

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at August 11, 2011 12:28 PM (bjRNS)

There goes Cali thinking they can influence the rest of the country to do it 'their way'...break off and sink already.

127

Rick Perry pitched the Yankees out of a bases loaded jamb last night.

 

128 I'm a Palin fan, but she's not running.

My God man.  Bus tours, FB posts at every turn, Undefeated movie, move to AZ, etc.  She may as well wear a sign on her forehead.

129 Rick Perry once turned the course of a mighty river with his bare hands. It was an accident. #perryfacts

130 ace got all wee-wee'd up over the PeePeePee poll yesterday, with AllahSquish leading the limp charge up the make-believe hill

Much Ado About Nothing:   Any decent R wins the Big Five ( that Maverick lost ) plus NH..          Game over, man

131 We've calculated these things before, and here's mine:   If we assume the leaners go to the respective parties, it adds to

R: 223 votes
D: 231 votes

I'm assuming Florida goes (R), bringing the Republicans to 252.   All they need at that point is 18 votes either Ohio or Pennsylvania or two of the next tier (VA, NC, and CO all seem like they're possibles).  So, it looks good so far.

< Insert Winston Wolf quote here >

132 If you don't want to give the WaPo the traffic, here's a Weasel Zippers link to the Washington Examiner on Jim's ass-fucking boyfriend's Obama's further fall.

Forty-four percent of American adults, and 46 percent of registered voters, told The Post they definitely will not vote for ObamaÂ’s reelection. Only 20 percent of respondents said they definitely will vote for Obama in 2012. Thirty percent said they would consider it. . . .

More than 40 percent of Americans are also ready to call Obama a failure.

133 93 He quoted both rates at NRO.  "The past year the state has “enjoyed” a very slow, gradual reduction from 6.2 percent unemployment to 6 percent."

8th best u.r. in the country.

Posted by: Y-not at August 11, 2011 12:06 PM (5H6zj)

Republican governors will do that.

The economy is farming so it doesn't tend to have the wild swings of other states. Despite the talk of ethanol, it's only a few well-heeled farm groups that benefit from that, soybeans are a huge cash crop.  Also, Iowa hemorrhages population, so if you can't find a job, you aren't going to stay.

But even with a low unemployment rate, independents in IA have had it with Obama, which is encouraging.

Posted by: AmishDude at August 11, 2011 12:15 PM (73tyQ)

I don't know what it's like where you are, Amish Dude, but here in Waterloo we've been getting a LOT of people from out of state, like Arizona.

134 129 but can we use OMC-FF going forward.

I think that is the aircraft tail code for the AoSHQ corporate jet.

Posted by: George Orwell what knows Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure at August 11, 2011 12:32 PM (AZGON)

Or aircraft carrier.

135 Earlier this week California passed a law that requires their Electors to vote for winner of the Popular Vote.

Imagine the irony if CA goes for Obama but the nation as a whole goes for the Republican candidate.

That law doesn't go into effect until enough states pass it to make up 270 electoral votes. The law only has 132 right now, not even close. It ain't gonna happen in time for the 2012 election, and I'm putting money on it never happening at all. That bill is a non-starter for most states. A colossally stupid idea.

136 My God man. Bus tours, FB posts at every turn, Undefeated movie, move to AZ, etc. She may as well wear a sign on her forehead. Posted by: cherry π at August 11, 2011 12:33 PM (OhYCU) Or put together a committee and declare her candidacy. Which she hasn't done. I am telling you she's on a different mission.

137

CNN piles on, finding him losing to Rudy Giuliani (why they polled him I haven't a clue...

 

I have three possibilities:

1. They do it because he's a known celebrity and will cause talk about the poll

2. pushing people like guilani makes conservatives sem to be less attractive in comparison.

3. the preference cascade HAS begun, and now even the MFM is signalling the threat of the electable ham sandwich. Dems are just that; Dems. If they fel that there is utility in ousting Obama somehow and doing the Torricelli maneuver, they will do it.

138 I am telling you she's on a different mission.

Posted by: blaster at August 11, 2011 12:38 PM (l5dj7)

To make me her love slave! HubbaHubba 

 

139 Romney is leading in BS polls right now solely on name recognition and "its his turn". The fact is that if you look at some of those poll internals he has been steadily slipping in momentum while Bachmann has been steadily gaining.

What has stopped Bachmann's gains right now IS Rick Perry. As we get closer to labor day Romney will continue to drop. Once labor day hits and the Summer is over people will start paying more attention and the steady voters will start looking at "the record" of the candidates.  Perry's record is not stellar, but it beats the holy hell out of Romney's.

And there Romney will do VERY bad in any place but the NE and the West in the primaries. The same places where NO Republican will stand a chance of winning in the general.

140 OK, Puttster.  Stop being a dickhead and resign, now.

Joe can cruise the rest of the way just fine.  You can just stay out at MV until Labor Day, then go wherever the fuck you want, after.  Enjoy your bike rides with your helmet, and your ice cream.

141 There goes Cali thinking they can influence the rest of the country to do it 'their way'...break off and sink already.

Oh, don't worry. Someday we'll do it to ourselves, to solve our water problems.

142 My God man. Bus tours, FB posts at every turn, Undefeated movie, move to AZ, etc. She may as well wear a sign on her forehead.

Posted by: cherry ð at August 11, 2011 12:33 PM (OhYCU)

Or put together a committee and declare her candidacy. Which she hasn't done.


I am telling you she's on a different mission.

Posted by: blaster

 

I agree with Blaster. She'll be on tour when Perry makes his announcement, adn she'll be standing in front of her bus, In Iowa (coincidentally) praising him. And she will be the conservative lightning rod that she could have been but wasn't allowed to be in 2008. Perry will then move along in his own sphere.

If they pull it of, it could be brilliant.

143 Thanks, you put me in a really bad mood until I opened the whole post

What about it morons, should there be punishment for this kind of trickery?

144 Oh yeah, I hate the state of Delaware. Obama has a 59% approval rating in this little rat hole.

145 Posted by: Y-not at August 11, 2011 12:14 PM (5H6zj)

Either the reporter screwed it up or the guy is lying. He didn't get a PhD from Dartmouth.

146
I live down here and Florida's definitely flipped. Obama doesn't know it yet, but Florida is a lost cause for him.

Posted by: Johnny at August 11, 2011 12:03 PM (iT/Iy)

 

Ohhhh, he knows it.  When's the last time he went to Florida?  All his trips have been to the midwest, and Pennsylvania.  Remember he has access to daily polls that we never see or hear about. 

I honestly do not see an electoral path for Obama to win.  He is going to need a fake assassination attempt or another 9/11 at this point.

147 Personally I doubt seriously VA is a toss up at this point. We pretty much corrected ourselves within a year of Sparky's election. I don't think NC is a toss up either.

148

King Putt gets reelected 47% to 43% in popular vote and 30 in the Electoral College with the rest choosing odds and ends. GOP picks up two seats in the Senate and loses 25 seats in the House.

America ceases to function 6 months later. Inflation reaches 14% at the same time. Mortgages go to 21% except for blacks who will get the house for free. Unemployment will stick at 14% actual, 9% reported, forever.

149 These clever (misleading) headlines aren't even funny anymore.  You'd have to be an ABSOLUTE loon to think Obama has a chance in hell of getting re-elected.

150 All you need to know about Intrade can be found by clicking the "INFO" tab and looking for "Today's Volume."  Only 38 contracts traded today.  Wow - today people are willing to wager a whole $170 on Obama's reelection, not exactly statistically significant.

151 Frankly, that map is depressing as hell. The GOP might get VA, NC, and FL (and FL is no way a sure thing), and that's still 22 short for the win. Getting that 22 out of those remaining toss-up states is not going to be easy. Looking at that map, I'd put money on Obama winning a second term. Depressing.

152 I honestly do not see an electoral path for Obama to win.  He is going to need a fake assassination attempt or another 9/11 at this point.

This is why I think the movie about the OBL raid is being pushed so hard for an October 2012 release date.

He thinks that he'll be able to relive his short-lived bump from that event by reminding people of it.

153 A good candidate will turn Michigan red, right about now, or maybe any candidate. Dems here are pretty much in disarray, still recovering from the Granholm Disaster, and mostly defensive. Stabenow is vulnerable to a strong Pete Hoekstra. The recall campaign against Republican Governor Snyder did not just fizzle, they couldn't even find a light. You can never be sure, but I think we get a "lean right".

154
Awwww. My very own AoS meme comes of age. You like me, you really like me!

I'd like to thank the Academy, and my agent, and my lawyer.....but most of all I'd like to thank the john ryan troll who gave me the idea for mocking him in the first place with his asinine insistence that Intrade scores actually meant something.

155 ^{156 Frankly, that map is depressing as hell. The GOP might get VA, NC, and FL (and FL is no way a sure thing), and that's still 22 short for the win. Getting that 22 out of those remaining toss-up states is not going to be easy. Looking at that map, I'd put money on Obama winning a second term. Depressing.}

^{Posted by: Map is depressing at August 11, 2011 01:20 PM (dCGBc)}

CAC is being very kind to Obama about Virginia. This state has definitely gone back more red. In 2009, Virginia had elections for Governor, Lt Governor and Attorney General. The Governor's race was a rematch from 4 years earlier, and in that election, Bob McDonnell beat Creigh Deeds by about 4500 votes. Fast forward to 2009, McDonnell wins 59%-41%. As a matter of fact, everyone of the Republicans got about 59% while the Dems got 40-42%.

In 2010, 3 congressional seats were flipped from D to R. One of those being a "Blue Dog" with 20+ years in a district that contains almost all of our coal mines. One of the other flips was Tom Periello who was the darling of the progressives. Obama and the Dems poured a shitload of money into that race, and he still lost.

156 158 A good candidate will turn Michigan red, right about now, or maybe any candidate. Dems here are pretty much in disarray, still recovering from the Granholm Disaster, and mostly defensive. Stabenow is vulnerable to a strong Pete Hoekstra. The recall campaign against Republican Governor Snyder did not just fizzle, they couldn't even find a light. You can never be sure, but I think we get a "lean right".

Which reminds me... they tried a recall campaign against Gov. Bobby Jindal down in here Louisiana.  They needed around 500,000 signatures to move forward.  They only got about 50.

On a related note, Jindal is up in November and, as of now, the only declared candidate against him is a schoolteacher from upstate.  I'm thinking that this is going to be one of the bigger electoral wipeouts in state history, even with certain groups voting reflexively for "Anybody But Bobby".

157 The way I see it based on the bottom map, the R's need FL, IA, NH, NC, OH and VA, which adds up to 85 EVs, and that gets them to 276.  Game over.  Anything like PA, CO or WI is just more salt in the wound.

158 You sure know how to get a good blood pressure spike.
Shit.

159 On a related note, Jindal is up in November and, as of now, the only declared candidate against him is a schoolteacher from upstate.  I'm thinking that this is going to be one of the bigger electoral wipeouts in state history, even with certain groups voting reflexively for "Anybody But Bobby".

Jindal is about the most worthless govenor to win re-election by default in the state's history.

160 Either the reporter screwed it up or the guy is lying. He didn't get a PhD from Dartmouth.

Do they not offer that program?  On what are you basing your assertion? 

161 14 What is wrong with New Mexico?

We are gradually becoming East California. Without the nice ocean views.

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