July 29, 2011
— Ace I actually know this is a double-post, and that Drew mentioned it earlier.
But it's such a big thing I want it to have a headline.
Since I've been blogging I've noticed that all GDP estimates are biased towards the average. When the economy is growing, early estimates lowball the figure, and later estimates and final numbers put it higher; when the economy is faring poorly, early estimates highball the figure, and later estimates and final numbers put it lower.
Exception: When there is a huge growth spurt in one quarter, those estimates are usually overstated, highballed.
It's like there's some glitch in the algorithm that starts at a default rate of growth of 2.5%, and the algorithm resists deviations away from this.
Our first quarter growth rate was said to be 1.9%. Which is not good at all. Pretty damn bad, actually. But at least it's not 0%.
Well, it turns out it was pretty damn close to 0%.
Now, supposedly, the growth in Q2 was a pitiful 1.3%, which is awful, and is even lower than the 1.8% expectation by economists.
But how likely is it that 1.3% even holds up? Any bets it gets revised down to... less than zero?
First-quarter output was sharply revised down to a 0.4 percent pace from 1.9 percent.Economists had expected the economy to expand at a 1.8 percent rate in the second quarter.
And 2010's fourth quarter was... yes, sharply revised down too, by almost a full percentage point.
In addition, fourth-quarter growth was revised down to a 2.3 percent pace from 3.1 percent, indicating that the economy had already started slowing before the high gasoline prices and supply chain disruptions from Japan hit.
The only thing here that comes close to helping Obama is the fact the recession turns out to have been worse than estimated, too:
Data released on Friday showed the 2007-2009 recession was much more severe than prior measures had found, with economic output declining a cumulative of 5.1 percent instead of 4.1 percent....
The economy needs to grow at a rate of 2.5 percent or better on a sustained basis to chip away at the nation's 9.2 percent unemployment rate.
But that doesn't really help him. For one thing, people are tired of excuses.
For another thing, a sharp downturn has usually been followed by a sharp upturn in the recovery phase -- the "V" shaped recovery people talk about (down sharply, then up sharply).
This is "L" shaped, down and then flat. It may in fact be a double-dip; we are on the verge of entering the Obama Recession. (BTW, Obama: Since you've proclaimed the recession ended two years ago, you really can't now claim this second recession is the same recession as the one you began with.)
So what's changed now?

Ironic "More Cowbell" picture from The People's Cube.
Posted by: Ace at
08:43 AM
| Comments (205)
Post contains 497 words, total size 3 kb.
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at July 29, 2011 08:49 AM (jx2j9)
Something tells me that Obama would have a hard time staying in rhythm.
The instrument I picture him with is the vuvuzela.
Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at July 29, 2011 08:49 AM (OP7l/)
And then, then they put up this video describing the situation in DC and well, I had to double check that I wasn't here. link
Posted by: curious at July 29, 2011 08:49 AM (k1rwm)
But we can. We aren't bound by the truth. We are the truth.
Posted by: Make Believe Media at July 29, 2011 08:49 AM (Hx5uv)
Posted by: King Obammy at July 29, 2011 08:50 AM (v+QvA)
BTW, Obama: Since you've proclaimed the recession ended two years ago, you really can't now claim this second recession is the same recession as the one you began with.
Just watch.
Posted by: Michael at July 29, 2011 08:50 AM (FC2+c)
0.0--this is truly President Blutarsky's economy.
Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at July 29, 2011 08:51 AM (OP7l/)
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at July 29, 2011 08:52 AM (jx2j9)
Posted by: curious at July 29, 2011 08:52 AM (k1rwm)
You act like a prima donna
Playin' so hard to get
Sittin' so cool and nonchalant
Draggin' on a cigarette
Posted by: Waterhouse at July 29, 2011 08:52 AM (7+Jsh)
In regards to the economy, nobody wants to play the game if you keeping changing the rules on them.
Regards Go Fuck Yourselves,
Lemmiwinks
Posted by: Lemmiwinks at July 29, 2011 08:53 AM (pdRb1)
Posted by: Fresh Air at July 29, 2011 08:53 AM (oj3O1)
How does that help Obama? He and his party have been running congress, which drives domestic policy, since 2007.
Posted by: 18-1 at July 29, 2011 08:53 AM (7BU4a)
Heh. The People's Cube. I almost forgot about that.
"Keep Tibet Progressive". I doubt progressives(D) would understand what that means.
Posted by: Lemon Kitten at July 29, 2011 08:54 AM (0fzsA)
2012 was supposed to be all about illusions.
The illusions of recovery and good times and prosperity. This darned debt issue is throwing a monkey-wrench in those plans.
Posted by: Soothsayer at July 29, 2011 08:54 AM (sqkOB)
The only question is how big a milk-sop the GOP will put forward to beat him in 2012.
Posted by: nickless at July 29, 2011 08:54 AM (MMC8r)
Posted by: 18-1 at July 29, 2011 08:54 AM (7BU4a)
Posted by: dr kill at July 29, 2011 08:55 AM (le5qc)
It will officially become a depression the moment a Republican president takes office.
Posted by: mpurinTexas supports Rick Perry, bitch at July 29, 2011 08:55 AM (ignDe)
Herbie Hancock, Jennifer Hudson, OK Go set for Obama birthday fundraiser
Herbie Hancock, Jennifer Hudson and OK Go, three artists with Chicago roots, will head up the entertainment portion of a planned birthday party and fundraiser celebrating the president's 50th birthday on August 3rd.
Posted by: kbdabear at July 29, 2011 08:55 AM (Y+DPZ)
Posted by: Fresh Air at July 29, 2011 12:53 PM (oj3O1)
Hey, everyone I know in DC is getting raises and promotions...what recession?
Posted by: The State Media at July 29, 2011 08:56 AM (7BU4a)
Posted by: Acid Rain at July 29, 2011 08:56 AM (Xm1aB)
These economist are about as good at their jobs as the weather forcaster on the evening news. The only job you can hold down and be WRONG half of the time.
Posted by: Unimpressed at July 29, 2011 08:56 AM (V92KK)
Posted by: King Pyrrhus of Epirus at July 29, 2011 08:56 AM (GTbGH)
Posted by: nickless at July 29, 2011 08:57 AM (MMC8r)
Posted by: Quilly Mammoth at July 29, 2011 08:57 AM (gF+ch)
Oh yes we can! Eat your peas!
Posted by: King Putt at July 29, 2011 08:57 AM (G+7cD)
Posted by: huerfano at July 29, 2011 12:48 PM (aZLY2)
Bingo.... service economies do not create wealth... they only spread it around.
But when you measure success via the GDP, which is the movment of money, not the creation of wealth?
Only economists can be so divorced from the real world, where they would say the winner of a football team is the one who had most total yards, not the team who scored the most points.
Posted by: US Congress at July 29, 2011 08:57 AM (NtXW4)
As an aside, what fun it must be to be a Dem rat party operative...digging into others' garbage, digging up 10 year old voter ID forms. An army of inch high private eyes.
Posted by: Lady in Black at July 29, 2011 08:57 AM (EIlEQ)
Posted by: John Carney at July 29, 2011 08:57 AM (0M3AQ)
Posted by: phreshone at July 29, 2011 08:57 AM (T3vCe)
Posted by: curious at July 29, 2011 08:58 AM (k1rwm)
Posted by: izoneguy at July 29, 2011 08:58 AM (i6Neb)
Posted by: WalrusRex at July 29, 2011 08:58 AM (Hx5uv)
Posted by: cherry π at July 29, 2011 08:58 AM (OhYCU)
Posted by: curious at July 29, 2011 08:59 AM (k1rwm)
Are You Shitting Me? They're pulling out that old excuse again?
Joe Biden already used it -- speaking of sorry excuses...
“No one realized how bad the economy was. The projections, in fact, turned out to be worse. But we took the mainstream model as to what we thought — and everyone else thought — the unemployment rate would be.”
“Everyone guessed wrong at the time the estimate was made about what the state of the economy was at the moment this was passed.”
June 2009
Posted by: Soothsayer at July 29, 2011 09:00 AM (sqkOB)
BLITZER: So what you're saying is the president did present a plan to the speaker, John Boehner.
DALEY: Yes.
BLITZER: But - but he didn't...
DALEY: Right.
BLITZER: - make it public.
DALEY: No, because there's... both the speaker and - and the president had agreed and - that these sort of negotiations do not happen in public.Fuck you! You work for us. Your work product is of interest, regardless of its obvious lack of quality. You have no right to keep this from us. And we don't like your attitude, and might fire you when your contract is up.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at July 29, 2011 09:00 AM (LH6ir)
Posted by: The MBM at July 29, 2011 09:00 AM (l5dj7)
Posted by: The MFM at July 29, 2011 09:00 AM (FcR7P)
Just had an experience with a gov't employee (Air Force reserve "master sergeant") sitting on my paperwork for 2 weeks, so that I can't start my new assignment for another month. Government employees getting more leave, more raises, and more stupid, while the private sector collapses.
Makes me think of the binary star analogy--the red giant of government absorbs matter from the white dwarf of the private sector economy. Meanwhile, the sand people terrorize the occupants of Tatooine.
Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at July 29, 2011 09:01 AM (OP7l/)
Well, it turns out it was pretty damn close to 0%.
No, it is 0% - if we're lucky.
Posted by: No Whining at July 29, 2011 09:01 AM (YAJZH)
Hey, everyone I know in DC is getting raises and promotions...what recession?
Posted by: The State Media at July 29, 2011 12:56 PM (7BU4a)
and the cnbc housing lady said their housing market is "the best in the country" apparently they haven't had any of the pesky problems with people losing their houses like the other states have had.
Posted by: curious at July 29, 2011 09:01 AM (k1rwm)
Posted by: toby928™ at July 29, 2011 09:01 AM (GTbGH)
Secondly, remember how the OdipO admin was hooting and hollering that we were making a comeback when we got that first 1.9% growth, which turned out to be zip, zilch, nada.
Posted by: Guy Fawkes at July 29, 2011 09:02 AM (mf8Ua)
Good luck with that as your platform in 2012.
You misunderstand the situation. Bush ran a Guns and Butter economy fighting two wars with unemployment averaging 4% for just under $2T a year. Bush was bad. Obama runs a Guns and Butter economy fighting 3 wars with unemployment averaging 10% for just under $4T a year. Obama is good. See? Its Keynesian. Big word for I went to an Ivy League school and you didn't. Oh yeah, Obama is a uniter.
Posted by: Sub-Tard at July 29, 2011 09:02 AM (0M3AQ)
Posted by: Barack Obama at July 29, 2011 09:03 AM (Hx5uv)
Posted by: t-bird at July 29, 2011 09:03 AM (FcR7P)
Zero minus gov't spending increases, if you're not a Keynesian. That's 10%/year, roughly.
You can count the increase in "public" debt as shrinkage, too, if you like numbers that mean stuff. But numbers that mean stuff mean DOOM.
The worst one might be the non-governmental economy (y'know, THE ECONOMY) as a percentage of official GDP. That graph looks like a long-exposure picture of a guy who started shitting blood on his way down a really steep hill, so he jumped.
Posted by: oblig. at July 29, 2011 09:03 AM (xvZW9)
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at July 29, 2011 09:04 AM (r4wIV)
wasn't around for the president's speech so rush's discussion is the first stuff i'm hearing about this.
Posted by: curious at July 29, 2011 09:04 AM (k1rwm)
Posted by: King Barry XV at July 29, 2011 09:04 AM (BP6Z1)
Posted by: MJ at July 29, 2011 09:05 AM (BKOsZ)
Thanks, Barry (and Nancy)!
Posted by: Joe Mama at July 29, 2011 09:05 AM (CYoZS)
Posted by: CoolCzech at July 29, 2011 09:05 AM (kUaEF)
I wonder how one gets a mortgage for a mud hut. And being underwater would have a whole new meaning.
Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at July 29, 2011 09:06 AM (OP7l/)
Posted by: CoolCzech at July 29, 2011 09:06 AM (kUaEF)
Posted by: curious at July 29, 2011 09:06 AM (k1rwm)
Posted by: cherry π at July 29, 2011 09:07 AM (OhYCU)
Well, it turns out it was pretty damn close to 0%.
No, it is 0% - if we're lucky.
Posted by: No Whining at July 29, 2011 01:01 PM (YAJZH)
Actualy, if you take out the Governments deficit spending... it would be below zero....
They are artificialy inflating the GDP by putting it on the credit card... but the bill is going to be due soon...
Posted by: Romeo13 at July 29, 2011 09:07 AM (NtXW4)
Posted by: Godwin at July 29, 2011 09:08 AM (l5dj7)
So the NRO speculation is that not only will the final Reid/Boehner bill not have the BBA trigger, it won't even have a small debt increase. They think it will get Harry Reids increase that gets this beyond the election.
Boy, the pragmatists will rejoice in the streets at that marvelous victory won't they?
Posted by: Rich at July 29, 2011 09:08 AM (wnGI4)
Posted by: at July 29, 2011 09:08 AM (6IV8T)
Posted by: Count de Monet at July 29, 2011 09:09 AM (4q5tP)
Face it, the Double Dip dipped a while back already. It's merely accelerating now.
Posted by: CoolCzech at July 29, 2011 01:05 PM (kUaEF)
Yep, and also need to factor in the Decline of the Dollar....
We're big time negative...
Posted by: Romeo13 at July 29, 2011 09:09 AM (NtXW4)
RCP Average Direction of the Country 6/24 - 7/24
Right Track 25.3% Wrong Track 67.0%
Spread -41.7
The Obergruppenfueher has it at -58, Al Reuters at -32
Posted by: toby928™ at July 29, 2011 09:09 AM (GTbGH)
^This.
Obama needs/wants a Reich-stag Fire for the coming 2012 campaign. You think theres going to be a debt deal.???? Hell no. It's much more advantageous to hm in his political calculus to tank the markets and blame Republicans, (more specifically, those angry Tea Partiers ....and diminish Bachman, Perry etc) than it is to get a deal.
Bank on it.
Posted by: fixerupper at July 29, 2011 09:09 AM (C8hzL)
If you go argue with the Left at their sites....which I know most of you dispise....but I find that more effective than sitting here argueing with people I agree with.....you'll find that they honestly beleive that the only way out is three things:
1.) Spend more money, even if we have to borrow it
2.) Raise Taxes on everybody, especially the wealthy and corporations
3.) Grow government and attempt to "Command and Control" our way out
It is difficult to tell whether they have been manipulated into honestly believeing that as a worthy strategy, or whether their intentions are a European Style Socialism, and they are hiding behind the "Keyensian" theory to ultimately get there.
The most disheartening thing about argueing with these people is, they really seem to believe that if Obama and the Democrats were just left alone, and the Republicans got out of the way, we would end up stronger than we ever were. They consistantly point to the past, and refuse to recognize the difference between the modern Democrats and Democrats of your grandfathers years.
Posted by: Jimi at July 29, 2011 09:09 AM (JMsOK)
That is the kind of thinking that will lead to heartbreak, either sooner or later. Probably sooner. Comparing apples to oranges is not a legitimate argument. Times have changed. Big Time.
Were Bush still President NOW, the economy would STILL be in the dumpster. The problems are now structural and those jobs lost are most likely NEVER coming back . Nor is the 'spend-until-you-drop' stupidity that kept the bubbles afloat for years. Obama has not helped the mess but unless someone on the anti-Obama side of the spectrum begins to see the economic problems for what they are (and are not), any 'conservative' gains will be short-lived indeed.
This 'recession' never has gone away and as others have said this is now going into year 4 of atrophy.
Tinkering with the superstructure of the State at this point isn't going to do squat. That's why this current phony war about the deficit is so discouraging. It's much ado about nothing and even when someone 'wins', there is no victory.
Posted by: Dougf at July 29, 2011 09:09 AM (dxq+G)
Posted by: curious at July 29, 2011 12:59 PM (k1rwm)
Yep. You just don't get Clinton's brilliance. See we are supposed to get TVs, stereos, computers, ipods, tools, cars, building supplies and everything else from China and India. In return we get to serve them prepared food, clean their houses and work on their cars....... FROM OVER SEAS!!!!!
Posted by: Lemmiwinks at July 29, 2011 09:10 AM (pdRb1)
Posted by: MJ at July 29, 2011 09:10 AM (BKOsZ)
A guy I know created an awesome video for the B.O.C. song "Divine Wind", written by (conservative) lead guitarist Buck Dharma.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PkzeX0_uTM
Posted by: SFGoth at July 29, 2011 09:11 AM (dZ756)
It's the gas prices, stupid. The 2011 spike has had the exact same effect that the 2008 spike had. This was entirely predictable, but nobody in Washington or Wall Street seems to get it for some reason.
People got no money to spend because it's all going in the gas tank, and for higher food prices. Houses that are far away from the work centers are unsellable and people stuck there can't move to where the jobs are. The malls are dead zones. Local shops are going under.
The shitty weather in a lot of country hasn't helped much either. How much of our economic capacity was wiped out in the tornadoes and floods?
Posted by: rockmom at July 29, 2011 09:11 AM (lSyyU)
You can't service stuff forever.
Au contraire, mon frère
Posted by: Millie the Whore at July 29, 2011 01:05 PM
When you have to start doing it for free aren't you just a slut?
Posted by: huerfano at July 29, 2011 09:12 AM (aZLY2)
"Osama bin Laden, if he were still alive, could not have come up with a more clever strategy for strangling our nation"
(link to WZ - not Time)
Posted by: laceyunderalls at July 29, 2011 09:12 AM (pLTLS)
Also see this live video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCYxP29pOIE
Posted by: SFGoth at July 29, 2011 09:12 AM (dZ756)
The only really nauseating aspect is the outlook of Hispanics. Perhaps a better economy under free market principles and some sort of immigration solution will change it. I hope so.
Posted by: Wonkish Rogue at July 29, 2011 09:13 AM (iHtIN)
Christopher Taylor, you are correct.
I'd bet money that there is a chart or two locked away in the Oval Office showing that 20% are unemployed and the last year has seen a negative growth in the economy by any measurement except misery.
Posted by: Dick_Nixon at July 29, 2011 09:13 AM (kaOJx)
They consistantly point to the past, and refuse to recognize the difference between the modern Democrats and Democrats of your grandfathers years.
I would say ancestor worship, but they seem to hate anything an old white guy ever did, because he's a white guy. So maybe they are just a cargo cult. Vote for Dem and free stuff washes ashore? Do they build bamboo replicas of ships and aircraft? Could we buy them off with cans of Spam? Food for thought.
Posted by: Sub-Tard at July 29, 2011 09:14 AM (0M3AQ)
How convenient is it that the magnitude of statistical error is never reported for GDP estimates, but it is always reported for polling results.
They never do it for unemployment numbers, either, but always assert minimal movements as meaningful rather than MOEs.
Posted by: nickless at July 29, 2011 09:14 AM (MMC8r)
“…shrill voices of the Tea Party.” Shaping up pretty much according to plan. Others in the GOP old guard will join this chorus, imo.
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at July 29, 2011 09:14 AM (jx2j9)
Posted by: DJIA at July 29, 2011 09:15 AM (GTbGH)
The real question is what is our GDP growth minus government spending? Given that G is up and everything else flatlined, where's the multiplyer effect?
We are financing our economy based on borrowing against the belief that we are still a productive and responsible people. Leaving aside the fact that our populace has ever larger segments who agree with the European model of ever less hours, months, and years of daily, yearly, and lifetime productivity, our government is also sabotaging that productivity with endless regulations, confiscations, and micromanagement. Why then does anyone think we will be good for ever more debt? Leaving aside the fed, which when buying T-bills is simply monetizing the deficit, why do Chinese work long and hard to give us money? Not so we can live the high life, but because they think it will be a good investment. Regardless of the actions of rating agencies, given our income and expenditure projects, how long will they keep that up?
We're boned.
Posted by: Randy M at July 29, 2011 09:15 AM (vI8R6)
Posted by: 80sBaby at July 29, 2011 09:15 AM (o2lIv)
Posted by: Ian S. at July 29, 2011 09:15 AM (tqwMN)
Obama is gonna continue to play the "hey, don't blame me, I just got here" card in 2012.
The balls on that man.
Posted by: Soothsayer at July 29, 2011 09:16 AM (sqkOB)
I think this is more a double downer - or as we used to call it in the acid days, a double bummer.
Posted by: Clutch Cargo at July 29, 2011 09:16 AM (p+mzQ)
- Christians are bombing people
- Tea Party is killing Christmas
- GOP is keeping granny from paying her a/c and heating bills
- my birthday bash is in a few days
- Zero
Posted by: cherry π at July 29, 2011 09:16 AM (OhYCU)
OT - Behold the tolerance of the ROP!
Lebanese outcry after belly dancer performs with Israelis
A Lebanese belly dancer has placed herself at the center of a cross-border war of words after performing at a French musical festival with an Israeli metal band, and brandishing the Israeli and Lebanese flags.
Johanna Fakhry, 22, says she canÂ’t return to her homeland following threats from her family and compatriots for appearing on stage with the band Orphaned Land in front of 90,000 fans at the Hellfest festival last month in Clisson, France.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at July 29, 2011 09:17 AM (9hSKh)
Obama is gonna continue to play the "hey, don't blame me, I just got here" card in 2012.
The balls on that man.
Posted by: Soothsayer at July 29, 2011 01:16 PM (sqkOB)
Doesn't take balls when you know that you wont be called on it
Posted by: Red Shirt at July 29, 2011 09:17 AM (FIDMq)
Posted by: nevergiveup at July 29, 2011 09:17 AM (7wmOW)
paging donald trump. paging donald trump.
Posted by: curious at July 29, 2011 09:17 AM (k1rwm)
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at July 29, 2011 01:00 PM (LH6ir)
A secret plan. I like it.
Posted by: Richard M. Nixon at July 29, 2011 09:18 AM (T0NGe)
Herbie Hancock, Jennifer Hudson, OK Go set for Obama birthday fundraiser
Herbie Hancock, Jennifer Hudson and OK Go, three artists with Chicago roots, will head up the entertainment portion of a planned birthday party and fundraiser celebrating the president's 50th birthday on August 3rd.
Okay, Mr. Obama, put your Herbie Hancock here!
Posted by: Tommy Callahan at July 29, 2011 09:18 AM (JqpkY)
These hack-careerists in the beltway are like vampires -- they hate the spotlight on their failures and corruption.
The Tea Party is like sunshine on their old bloodsucking asses.
Posted by: Soothsayer at July 29, 2011 09:18 AM (sqkOB)
Taking money from you and transferring that to teachers Unions or Planned Parenthood or State Governments doesn't count toward GDP.
Posted by: fixerupper at July 29, 2011 09:18 AM (C8hzL)
National Journal accidentally grabbed the wrong one. I thought it was the right one too until I started skimming it and read some updates about it.
Posted by: 80sBaby at July 29, 2011 09:19 AM (o2lIv)
Cowbell? You're kidding!
I don't mean to be racist but when it comes to rythem King Putt dances like a white guy.....
Posted by: MrObvious at July 29, 2011 09:19 AM (qwhLZ)
See!?11!eleventy! The Republicans are holding American's economy hostage! Here's the proof!
Posted by: Braindead Garden Variety Libtard at July 29, 2011 09:19 AM (EIlEQ)
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at July 29, 2011 01:17 PM (9hSKh)
That's not true. That's impossible. It must be the Joos.
Posted by: Norwegian Labour party camp counselors at July 29, 2011 09:19 AM (T0NGe)
Posted by: MJ at July 29, 2011 09:20 AM (BKOsZ)
Well, it turns out it was pretty damn close to 0%.
doom?
Doom?
DOOM!??
How did we let this DOOM! sneak up on us? Why didn't we see it coming sooner?!!!
Posted by: MikeTheMoose at July 29, 2011 09:21 AM (0q2P7)
Posted by: Dr Spank at July 29, 2011 09:21 AM (1fB+3)
I don't think any of those zombies currently residing in DC will work.
Posted by: ontherocks at July 29, 2011 09:21 AM (HBqDo)
119 Why hasn't someone from the tea party come out to show them how they can save money and SS medicare and medicade by ceasing to give money away to foreign governments for free.
*sighs*. While I agree that foreign aid should be cut and only given to those who are willing to be our friends and who share our interests, the total amount of foreign aid (40 to 50 billion dollars) is a drop in the bucket of our current fiscal catastrophe. Those savings are sure as hell not going to "save" SS and Medicare...
/Who's on shift today? Mr. Bigglesworth?
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at July 29, 2011 09:21 AM (9hSKh)
National Journal accidentally grabbed the wrong one. I thought it was the right one too until I started skimming it and read some updates about it.
Posted by: 80sBaby at July 29, 2011 01:19 PM (o2lIv)
Posted by: curious at July 29, 2011 01:10 PM (k1rwm)
Posted by: curious at July 29, 2011 01:12 PM (k1rwm)
Are the Zero Hedge links "the right one"?
Posted by: curious at July 29, 2011 09:21 AM (k1rwm)
Posted by: blaster at July 29, 2011 09:21 AM (l5dj7)
Posted by: nevergiveup at July 29, 2011 09:22 AM (7wmOW)
Taking money from you and transferring that to teachers Unions or Planned Parenthood or State Governments doesn't count toward GDP.
Posted by: fixerupper at July 29, 2011 01:18 PM (C8hzL)
Not directly, but when those others spend that money they received from the Government, it does count.
Posted by: Romeo13 at July 29, 2011 09:22 AM (NtXW4)
@ 112 Soothsayer
The balls on that man.
;">Super ;"> ;">Balls ® is a brand name and a registered trademark of Wham-O Inc., Woodland Hills, CA
Posted by: Clutch Cargo at July 29, 2011 09:22 AM (p+mzQ)
I think the Chicago thing is just cover that this was the best they could do. I mean, OK Go are the YouTube video guys. They'll probably do that treadmill thing. Again.
Posted by: Norwegian Labour party camp counselors at July 29, 2011 09:22 AM (T0NGe)
This is King Putt's real deadline.
Think he'll go ahead with the party if we don't have a deal? My money would be on 'yes' if I still had any.
Posted by: King Putt at July 29, 2011 09:23 AM (G+7cD)
Posted by: Spike at July 29, 2011 09:23 AM (WLxeI)
Ah who cares, HP computers are way over rated
My HP laptop crapped out a few weeks ago. I only had it for over a year.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at July 29, 2011 09:23 AM (9hSKh)
Posted by: Hogwallop at July 29, 2011 09:23 AM (mf8Ua)
Posted by: MJ at July 29, 2011 09:23 AM (BKOsZ)
Posted by: blaster at July 29, 2011 01:21 PM (l5dj7)
Me too, My first original thought in weeks and now its gone.
very sad.
Posted by: dananjcon at July 29, 2011 09:23 AM (8ieXv)
99 Joe Klein's latest gem in Time--->
"Osama bin Laden, if he were still alive, could not have come up with a more clever strategy for strangling our nation"
(link to WZ - not Time)
"And so I have a proposal: the Cut the Crap Act. It will have to be passed by Monday, to avoid default. And it will require an act of statesmanship from Boehner: he will have to modify his proposal and cut loose the Tea Party robots who are opposed to a deal of any kind. He will have to find common cause with Harry Reid and, yes, Nancy Pelosi, who are now willing to propose bills that should make any Teasie happy — bills without “revenue increases,” bills with a trillion dollars in budget cuts, more or less. He will have to find 160 sane members of his caucus and Pelosi will have to find 60 extremely tolerant members of hers to get us past this ridiculous moment."
You could have cut the crap back when you ran the whole show Joe. But you decided not to. It took that movement of robots to get the Washington Establishment in line with spending cuts. Which is what you are really angry about. Say it ain't so Joe.
Posted by: Wonkish Rogue at July 29, 2011 09:24 AM (iHtIN)
Are You Shitting Me? They're pulling out that old excuse again?
Joe Biden already used it -- speaking of sorry excuses...
“No one realized how bad the economy was. The projections, in fact, turned out to be worse. But we took the mainstream model as to what we thought — and everyone else thought — the unemployment rate would be.”
“Everyone guessed wrong at the time the estimate was made about what the state of the economy was at the moment this was passed.”
And yet when every intelligence agency thought Sadam had a wmd program, Bush was lying and misleading.
Posted by: Randy M at July 29, 2011 09:24 AM (vI8R6)
Posted by: blaster at July 29, 2011 09:25 AM (l5dj7)
Posted by: toby928™ at July 29, 2011 01:23 PM (GTbGH)
You would not like it- back off my homies!
Posted by: Magic 8-ball at July 29, 2011 09:25 AM (FIDMq)
Posted by: dananjcon at July 29, 2011 09:26 AM (8ieXv)
Posted by: Dick_Nixon at July 29, 2011 09:27 AM (kaOJx)
Posted by: blaster at July 29, 2011 01:25 PM (l5dj7)
Yup , that was my thought...WTF is wrong w/Ohio??
Posted by: dananjcon at July 29, 2011 09:28 AM (8ieXv)
Posted by: cherry ð at July 29, 2011 01:26 PM (OhYCU)
My first reaction too. But when you consider about 50% pay no taxes and have no stake in how money is spent/wasted, that's actually pretty good I suppose.
Posted by: Rev Wright at July 29, 2011 09:28 AM (/Mla1)
Posted by: King Putt at July 29, 2011 01:23 PM (G+7cD)
Oh, yeah.
But I think at this stage, he's afraid that somebody in the press might tweet something that sounds like it might be a criticism.
Posted by: AmishDude at July 29, 2011 09:29 AM (T0NGe)
Posted by: nerdygirl at July 29, 2011 09:29 AM (g8JDc)
It'll have a filter to make sure you don't receive any improper opinion.
Posted by: WalrusRex at July 29, 2011 09:29 AM (Hx5uv)
Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at July 29, 2011 09:29 AM (ZDUD4)
There is a website devoted to Hitler kittehs.
Posted by: Retread at July 29, 2011 09:29 AM (G+7cD)
Well, doesn't matter, Kasich is a failure anyway. He actually got it done, standing on principle, but his polling is down. And that's the real metric, right?
--------
Sadly, he didn't even get it done. Shit is going to be repealed in the fall. Terrible poll numbers and the piece of legislation that has caused him those poll numbers is going to scrapped.
Posted by: Rich at July 29, 2011 09:30 AM (wnGI4)
No; it was the old bill without the changes. Here is the BBA amendment:
http://tinyurl.com/3lytqh4
Posted by: 80sBaby at July 29, 2011 09:30 AM (o2lIv)
Taking money from you and transferring that to teachers Unions or Planned Parenthood or State Governments doesn't count toward GDP.
Posted by: fixerupper at July 29, 2011 01:18 PM (C8hzL)
Transfer payments, such as welfare and social security, aren't counted as government consumption but do show up in GDP when that money is spent on consumption or investment by the recipients. Money given by federal government to the states to pay government employees or for other direct spending is counted as government consumption in the GDP statistics. One way or another, the vast increase in federal government spending under Obama has shown up in the GDP figures as "growth".
Posted by: DKCZ at July 29, 2011 09:30 AM (bRMSH)
Take out Texas and McDonalds, and were in a recession.
Expect a Perry Campaign to hammer home the "Non-Texas economy" versus Perry's record in Texas.
Posted by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate at July 29, 2011 09:31 AM (Hj9yW)
Clinton now Says: The 'Big Things' Never Included his Tax-cut Vow, By Paul F. Horvitz
Published: January 15, 1993
WASHINGTON— Seeking to explain why he is backtracking on a campaign promise to cut taxes for the middle class, President-elect Bill Clinton said Thursday that the plan was never a major theme in his race for the White House.
Mr. Clinton, speaking at a news conference a day after saying he would have to "revisit" his tax-cut plan, said Americans voted for him because of the "big things" he wanted to do.
The middle-class tax cut, he said, was not among them.
He said he was "absolutely mystified" that the news media had perceived it as a major pledge. In interviews Wednesday, Mr. Clinton said that, because of worsening deficit projections,"I have to put everything back on the table."
Posted by: toby928™ at July 29, 2011 09:31 AM (GTbGH)
Actually, I'm not worried about it. Remember when his poll numbers shot up after killing bin Laden?
Me neither.
Posted by: AmishDude at July 29, 2011 09:31 AM (T0NGe)
did it feel like the economy picked up between the 1st and 2nd quarter ? Not to me ... so if 1st Q was really .4 then I have to assume 2 Q will come in around .4 if not lower ...
Give Obama 1 quarter with negative GDP and his 2012 election chances will go from bad to so close to zero that its gets zero's mail sometimes ...
Posted by: Jeff at July 29, 2011 09:32 AM (A3tpD)
Posted by: CoolCzech at July 29, 2011 09:33 AM (kUaEF)
Pantsuit 2: This time it's personal.
Posted by: Wonkish Rogue at July 29, 2011 09:35 AM (iHtIN)
The most disheartening thing about argueing with these people is, they really seem to believe that if Obama and the Democrats were just left alone, and the Republicans got out of the way, we would end up stronger than we ever were. They consistantly point to the past, and refuse to recognize the difference between the modern Democrats and Democrats of your grandfathers years.
Democrats of my grandfather's years set up the Ponzi schemes that are collapsing around us now.
Posted by: Randy M at July 29, 2011 09:35 AM (vI8R6)
"extremely tolerant". It can't be said enough: go fuck yourself with a pineapple, Joe Klein. The Keynesian fuckwit Democrats and you ball-licking dipshit enablers in the fucking media got us to this ridiculous moment. Eat it, and choke on it, you putrid lying sack of shit.
Posted by: Waterhouse at July 29, 2011 09:36 AM (7+Jsh)
No; it was the old bill without the changes. Here is the BBA amendment:
http://tinyurl.com/3lytqh4
Posted by: 80sBaby at July 29, 2011 01:30 PM (o2lIv)
thanks 80's Baby .... I appreciate your diligence....
Posted by: curious at July 29, 2011 09:38 AM (k1rwm)
Should she have asked for a doggy bag?
Posted by: CoolCzech
My.....That 911 call must have been...awkward. And second only to the memorial service. Especially if the wake was held. In the house. With the dog out back. And by out back I do NOT mean anything untoward.
Posted by: Blue Hen at July 29, 2011 09:39 AM (6rX0K)
Posted by: Jimi
That indeed is a false choice on several points.
Wilson was the first really damaging modern Democrat Progressive, introducing the Federal withholding Income Tax, and the Federal Reserve, which was allegedly meant to manage the monetary system, but in fact has destroyed captial in the value of capital in an incredible way.
FDR, your "grandather's Democrat" did as much damage, if not more, to the system as Obama is doing. Mobilization for WWII (1939) and actually fighting the war stimulated the economy like nobody's buisness and erased many of the mis-steps and mistakes that were a hallmark of the FDR years. "The Great Patriotic War", as it was called in Soviet quarters, is how it is largely remembered now here, without the actual strife, bitterness and government mis-management that actually happened.
After the war, most of the other major industrial nations were knocked 'way down, compared to the US. Sometime in the late '60's, that disparity appeared to have finally worn away. The actual high for the DJIA (in constant dollars) was actually in 1966 or 1967. So the Truman, Eisenhower (R), Kennedy and LBJ years are remembered well, although we were already starting to burn the seed corn in the LBJ years.
Now the bonfire is raging.
Posted by: Reader C.J. Burch writes..... at July 29, 2011 09:41 AM (oiG2m)
Posted by: 80sBaby at July 29, 2011 09:41 AM (o2lIv)
Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at July 29, 2011 09:42 AM (ZDUD4)
Posted by: CoolCzech at July 29, 2011 09:47 AM (kUaEF)
Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at July 29, 2011 09:48 AM (ZDUD4)
Posted by: Reader C.J. Burch writes..... at July 29, 2011 01:41 PM (oiG2m)
IMO it was not the war which really ended the depresion... heck, the economy sucked those years...
BUT, the Governemnt got out of the way and allowed America to get to work, in order to build the machines of War... and then that industry transitioned to making civilian goods... and THAT is what finished the depresion...
We built the means to MAKE SHIT... we mined and drilled and built... and that is how you create real wealth... not by creating new and better ways to make legal bets in some market structure... (imo the banks just move wealth, they don't create it).
Posted by: Romeo13 at July 29, 2011 09:50 AM (NtXW4)
Well, there is obviously a technique that works on politicians; just look at the Republicans.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at July 29, 2011 09:52 AM (LH6ir)
BUT, the Governemnt got out of the way and allowed America to get to work, in order to build the machines of War... and then that industry transitioned to making civilian goods... and THAT is what finished the depresion...
It helped having half the factories in Europe and Asia bombed to rubble. Might have influenced demand for US exports a bit.
Posted by: Randy M at July 29, 2011 10:00 AM (vI8R6)
It helped having half the factories in Europe and Asia bombed to rubble. Might have influenced demand for US exports a bit.
Posted by: Randy M at July 29, 2011 02:00 PM (vI8R6)
Actualy, England, Africa, Mid East, Russia, China... all went through building phases during the war years...
It was the Axis countries, Eastern Europe, and France, whose industries were leveled...
So yes... there were some 'markets' for goods created, but there was also a HUGE increase in domestic consumption.
Posted by: Romeo13 at July 29, 2011 10:09 AM (NtXW4)
Posted by: JoeInMD at July 29, 2011 10:10 AM (PIahf)
Posted by: Montjoie at July 29, 2011 10:17 AM (cn3uH)
"They not only set it up, the took the word of every crooked ass pol that promised them more and more benifits without doing one iota of math to fact check. They didn't give a shit about the future Generation. It was all me me me, mine mine mine. Then they wonder why there kids are all fucked up."
Well they just assumed that we would always be the economic powerhouse. Then when Clinton came in he started giving away the farm. Then by the time Obama came, they had forgot to teach the Baby Scammers that to maintain to Entitlement structure we needed to keep the manufacturing here, and we needed to quit getting raped on oil.
But apparently voting in someone non-White was much more important, and now the Baby Scammers are looking to their kids to fix this?
Ha!.....
Posted by: Jimi at July 29, 2011 10:17 AM (JMsOK)
BreakingNews Breaking News Capitol telephone circuits 'near capacity,' system alert says. In the House, typical call volume is 20K per hour - Fox News' @ChadPergram
but hey "people are absorbed in reality tv, they aren't paying attention" as my dem friends are telling me....lol
Posted by: curious at July 29, 2011 10:18 AM (k1rwm)
Have never heard Devin Nunes as angry as he was on Batchelor last night in batchelor's last hour. Can't wait to hear his thoughts tonight, hope batchelor has him on the program.
Posted by: curious at July 29, 2011 10:22 AM (k1rwm)
You're exactly right, the 0.4% is the Q1 result after three revisions, all downward.
2011's growth, moreover, was entirely front-loaded, it's been all downhill since February. We are undoubtedly in recession, negative growth, but this will grudgingly be acknowledged only after multiple downward revisions sometime in 2012.
The good news is Obomb is finito.
Posted by: gary gulrud at July 29, 2011 10:27 AM (CZ6D9)
Posted by: Amy at July 29, 2011 10:27 AM (eNZFc)
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam. This is bowling. There are rules."
"Mark it Zero...Dude!"
"Shut the fuck up, Donny"
Posted by: Walter Sobchak at July 29, 2011 10:30 AM (JMsOK)
Have never heard Devin Nunes as angry as he was on Batchelor last night in batchelor's last hour. Can't wait to hear his thoughts tonight, hope batchelor has him on the program.
Posted by: curious at July 29, 2011 02:22 PM (k1rwm)
No one here gives a shit about Batchelor and who he has on. The only person I have ever heard talk about him is you. No one gives a shit. We don't need a play by play of his show ever fucking night.
Posted by: buzzion at July 29, 2011 10:32 AM (oVQFe)
Posted by: George Soros, NSDAP at July 29, 2011 10:34 AM (f8XyF)
It doesn't matter: if we can tax it, borrow it, appropriate it or redistribute it, buddy, it's fair game and my administration is coming at ya!
Posted by: Professor Zero Sum at July 29, 2011 10:44 AM (p2IBw)
It's the gas prices, stupid. The 2011 spike has had the exact same effect that the 2008 spike had. This was entirely predictable, but nobody in Washington or Wall Street seems to get it for some reason.
People got no money to spend because it's all going in the gas tank, and for higher food prices. Houses that are far away from the work centers are unsellable and people stuck there can't move to where the jobs are. The malls are dead zones. Local shops are going under.
The shitty weather in a lot of country hasn't helped much either. How much of our economic capacity was wiped out in the tornadoes and floods?
Well, the administration's policies, long-term, are slowly shutting down production in the Gulf of Mexico, which is 1/3 of US oil production.
When your only means of paying for overseas oil is printing more money, because we can't be allowed to make anything for ourselves... well, yeah, the price is going to keep going up.
I suspect Zero's job, as per the Russians, is to keep us from drilling until we no longer have any capital left to drill WITH.
Posted by: Abdominal Snowman at July 29, 2011 10:56 AM (rVfMa)
Posted by: Abdominal Snowman at July 29, 2011 10:59 AM (rVfMa)
THE ECONOMY IS RACIST AND AG HOLDER SHOULD INVESTIGATE IMMEDIATELY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: Al Sharpton at July 29, 2011 11:10 AM (48wze)
Posted by: Just Kids Audiobook at July 29, 2011 06:03 PM (qKLlr)
Posted by: GHD Straighteners at July 30, 2011 11:09 PM (aLmvz)
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Posted by: huerfano at July 29, 2011 08:48 AM (aZLY2)