March 22, 2011
— Monty This long article by Yuval Levin at National Affairs, entitled Beyond the Welfare State, is a fuller exploration of some of the things I've been ranting about and is well worth your time.
Here's a little taste:
All over the developed world, nations are coming to terms with the fact that the social-democratic welfare state is turning out to be untenable. The reason is partly institutional: The administrative state is dismally inefficient and unresponsive, and therefore ill-suited to our age of endless choice and variety. The reason is also partly cultural and moral: The attempt to rescue the citizen from the burdens of responsibility has undermined the family, self-reliance, and self-government. But, in practice, it is above all fiscal: The welfare state has turned out to be unaffordable, dependent as it is upon dubious economics and the demographic model of a bygone era.
We have all lived for the past several centuries in the Westphalian-state world, and one trend that stands out in the Westphalian model is the rise and growth of the welfare-state. This seems at first blush to be a good thing -- after all, isn't the modern European-descended West the most wealthy and successful culture in the history of the world? Isn't it the moral and ethical thing -- isn't it civilized -- to take care of the poor and helpless and needy?
The main thing holding back the full power of the governmental welfare state prior to the 20th century was simply a lack of technology. The desire was there; the means was not. It wasn't until the infrastructure of the modern world came along that the various western governments could fully bring the welfare state into flower.
In past ages, the desire of kings and emperors to control the lives of their people was no less than it is now, but they simply lacked the means to substantially affect the average serf or peasant's daily life. A tax collector or company of soldiers might come by occasionally, but it was the church and not the state that formed the polestar around which most lives revolved. But beginning in the late 19th century, technology allowed the governments of the industrialized nations to reach down into each city, town, and hamlet, and "adjust" things directly. In totalitarian regimes the impulse was malign, but in western nations the intentions were mainly good: to provide subsistence and aid for those in need of it.
But one thing has become clear in the western nations since the welfare-state started in earnest after World War II: it spreads like kudzu, it encompasses and infantilizes ever-larger percentages of the population, and it beggars even the richest and most powerful countries. Leave aside questions of morality and efficacy for the moment -- it is dreadfully clear that the main problem with the welfare-state is that we can't afford it. No one can, no matter how rich or powerful.
This is the paradox of the welfare state: it will surely ruin us if left to run unchecked, yet so many people now depend upon it that we can't stop.
Levin proposes some ideas to alleviate the problem (benefit reform, means-testing, etc.; nothing we haven't heard before), but his main thesis is that the modern world simply is not well suited to the old industrial-age welfare state model. Our bloated and (inherently!) inefficient governmental approach to social-welfare guarantees that costs will keep spiraling with little hope of ballot-box reform (too many people depend on social welfare in one way or other to vote against their own self-interest to change it).
In the end, Levin is more of an optimist than I am. Many of his solutions are predicated on ballot-box initiatives that have little hope of passing even under a reinvigorated GOP Administration (remember, the welfare state grew just as relentlessly under Reagan and George W. Bush as it did under Carter and Clinton). We have so successfully turned Americans into wards of the state that any significant change will (I fear) have to be imposed by fiat or by circumstance, because I don't think it will ever take place at the political level. There is simply no way to get from here to there without making the kinds of wrenching changes that no democratic/republican form of government is good at. (If you doubt me, look at the protests in Greece, Ireland, and Portugal. Even when the writing is on the wall, the population does their best to ignore it.)
[UPDATE]: Lest I get carried away with the doom-n-gloom, remember -- decline is a choice, not a destiny.
[UPDATE 2]: The new Red Menace? The ocean of red ink on our collective ledger-book.
To the serious cat, the failure of the welfare state is serious business.
Posted by: Monty at
05:15 AM
| Comments (122)
Post contains 804 words, total size 5 kb.
Posted by: curious at March 22, 2011 05:20 AM (k1rwm)
No it is not for that cause that it failed. All form of socialism have always failed because the system can NEVER work. it is simple human nature. People will always take the easier path to support their life. if it is easier to live off of the "government" then they will take that route. The only problem with that is the government must be supported by someone who actually does work.
When they perceive that it is easier to quit working and to get their living from the government as well the whole system collapses.
Bastiat said it way back when the French were committing cultural suicide, it is the job of the government to protect citizens from the looter in order for societry to flourish. When the government becomes the looter then law has been turned on its head.
When that happens it is a short road to failure. We are headed there now.
Posted by: Vic at March 22, 2011 05:28 AM (M9Ie6)
Posted by: maddogg at March 22, 2011 05:31 AM (OlN4e)
I'm an ugly pussy. Probably not the ugliest pussy cuz, you know, Pelosi has one. So does Rosie. So, at least I have that going for me.
Posted by: the kitty at March 22, 2011 05:37 AM (penCf)
Posted by: Monty at March 22, 2011 05:39 AM (4Pleu)
Yeah, Portugal is preparing for a government shut down because no political party was willing to go the austerity route.
How about that? You'd rather your nation potentially collapse than fix a politically unpopular problem.
The welfare state is more powerful that the solvency or sovereignty of ones own nation.
Posted by: Ben at March 22, 2011 05:39 AM (wuv1c)
Posted by: Ben at March 22, 2011 05:40 AM (wuv1c)
Posted by: curious at March 22, 2011 09:32 AM (k1rwm)
curious, are you listening to Beck? He's got audio of an SEIU thug in a meeting planning to bring down Wall Street. Beck's going to have the audio and transcript on The Blaze.
Posted by: Jane D'oh at March 22, 2011 05:45 AM (UOM48)
Posted by: curious at March 22, 2011 05:46 AM (k1rwm)
Posted by: Monty at March 22, 2011 05:49 AM (4Pleu)
I posted the blaze link up thread. You know I will never forget the looks on nanny p's and shoo mer's face when they came out of that thursday evening meeting with hank p. And I will never forget batchelor when he was in complete shock saying "two dollars, that can't be right, two dollars."
Posted by: curious at March 22, 2011 05:51 AM (k1rwm)
Posted by: curious at March 22, 2011 05:54 AM (k1rwm)
Fiat or circumstances?
I vote circumstances.
I love the smell of default and hyperinflation in the morning.
Posted by: Emperor of Icecream at March 22, 2011 05:54 AM (epBek)
Posted by: Monty at March 22, 2011 05:55 AM (4Pleu)
Posted by: curious at March 22, 2011 05:57 AM (k1rwm)
We can only pray that the nukes that Britian and France have now are dismantled/destroyed before Europe's demographic swing. The fighting in Libya and all the civil unrest in the Arab world might help facilitate the swing even further by inducing even larger numbers of North Africans to immigrate to Europe.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at March 22, 2011 05:58 AM (9hSKh)
I loathe Canada because of the nature of the welfare government to get into every aspect of our lives. It's like being smothered by good intentions. We honestly have signs on the highway reading "Fatigue kills - Take a break!" I hate those signs.
One of my favourite memories of South Korea were the restaurant delivery motorbikes that would whiz through the streets, most times passing within arm length of me scaring the crap out of me until I got used to it. You could order any type of food from the restaurants - soups, noodles, chicken - and the delivery drivers would drop the food off at your place in metal cases. You would finish the meal, put the dishes back into the metal case, leave it out on the stairs and the drivers would later pick up the dishes - FREE!
That's an AMAZING thing. I would love to see that in Canada! I live in a very small community of less than 5000 people. We have a lot of restaurants considering our size, including 2 Chinese restaurants and about 4 pizza places. If I were to start a restaurant here, free delivery as in South Korea would be the one thing I'd most like to offer. Small town - only a few sets of stoplights and after a hard day at work, who wouldn't like to have a good, hearty meal different than the usual takeout.
But then I realised all the ways the government would make such an idea less and less appealing. The licenses and insurance. The $10.00 / hour minimum wage in Ontario. Motorbikes probably couldn't be parked on sidewalks much less driven on them. Just a bunch of niggling little things that you know would kill a great idea. That's what the welfare state does and large government does.
Once I get Korean citizenship, I'll have no problem giving up Canadian citizenship which will be easier to give up than American. I feel no pride or loyalty for this country as it is. I'm just hoping that the boning the United States gets will shake Canada so hard that there will be no more government redistribution of wealth. If you want to come here, work hard and make it with no government assistance, welcome.
Again, I'll honour the Canadian and American veterans that fought and died to keep South Korea free. And I'll warn them where Canada and the United States went wrong.
Posted by: Canadian Infidel at March 22, 2011 05:59 AM (GKQDR)
This demographic collapse, combined with the failure of the welfare state, will accelerate the collapse with every year that goes by. Sarkozy and Merkel (finally!) recognize the danger, but probably too late to do anyone any good -- and they're still wedded, blood and bone, to the welfare-state model.
I've been thinking about this for sometime. There really are no solutions for Europe. Europeans nations, as much as they might try, aren't like America when it comes to assimilating immigrants.
We do have our problems, but I'm willing to bet the grand children of the 10 million illegal immigrants in our country will be completely "Americanized". The Mexicans are no different than the Italians, Polish, and Irish. They will do what they can to maintain their distinct identity and culture, but time spent in America will wear it down to the point where their understanding and allegience to their own culture will be nothing more than a foreign flag under the american flag on their flag pole as it is with Italians and Irish, or some bastardization of one of the old countries national holidays (see: St Patricks Day).
Europe on the other hand is in a different boat. Germans will never recognize Turks as Germans and vice versa. In England we already see "asian" conclaves that are no go zones for Englishman. Russia is rapidly dying and it's southern -stan neighbors are growing. Russia is and has been a patchwork country ruled by the white european muscovites, that is going to change in the next 50 years.
Japan is even worse off. They don't allow immigrants in their country. They're 98.5% Japanese. They're so racially pure that many of them don't even consider certain Japanese to be Japanese.(like the residents of Okinawa.)
I just don't see a solution for any of these nations. What could their governments do to encourage breeding? It can't even offer money as they are all out.
Posted by: Ben at March 22, 2011 05:59 AM (wuv1c)
Posted by: phoenixgirl at March 22, 2011 05:59 AM (eOXTH)
Posted by: Monty at March 22, 2011 09:49 AM (4Pleu)
I agree with your Doom prediction for the U.S. But like you said, Europe is far off worse because they are closer to the socialism spending cliff. So, IF this the case, Europe should fall before the U.S. yet I don't get the sense that are any larger financial trouble than we are right now. We keep hearing about the PIGGS but they flood the market with Euro's like we do with dollars and the sharade goes on. It seems the sharade can go on much longer or indifinitely
Where am I not seeing here.
Posted by: WishRich at March 22, 2011 06:00 AM (hdpay)
Posted by: nevergiveup at March 22, 2011 06:02 AM (0GFWk)
Posted by: phoenixgirl at March 22, 2011 06:02 AM (eOXTH)
Regarding the doom and such like, I see some discontinuity in the complaints. On the one hand we complain about unemployment and reduced productivity and tax revenue, along with an expanding welfare state. On the other hand we complain about reduced birth rates, and the failure of America's breeding stock to keep up the production of new taxable assets. By the way - I'm not a unit of livestock. My lack of children is not a sign of low patriotism or unwillingness to do my share. It is not a moral evil to abstain from reproduction.
We need fewer and fewer people to do more and more, thanks to technology. Frankly, the work force today is already full of under-utilization, and plenty of jobs exist only because those holding them are good at playing the games necessary to keep those jobs in place. We don't really need everybody to work to produce not only all we need, but plenty of surplus. However, our system requires that people work to obtain money. This makes sense on the face, and always worked out pretty well in the past. But it's really a problem at this stage because so many people are simply redundant. Heck - I bet every one of us has met plenty of folks who would be more of a burden than a help in the work force. Surplus labor is a fact of modern life.
Unless we're willing to starve or otherwise weed out and dispose of those who aren't useful for something, we're going to have a lot more people than work. The system has to accomodate that somehow. Either we have to artificially spread out the work load so that everybody carries some part of it (like Europe with their long vacations and such), or we have to come up with some alternative to work for obtaining money. Paying those who are stupid or lazy a meager subsistence to stay at home and keep out of the way is, perhaps, a small price to pay (IF we quit paying them to breed more of themselves, but I'm told that to even suggest that makes me somehow evil. Maybe because having no kids is immoral??). Most regular folk will still want more, and be willing to work to get more.
Posted by: Reactionary at March 22, 2011 06:02 AM (xUM1Q)
Posted by: phoenixgirl at March 22, 2011 10:00 AM (eOXTH)
Hell, I've been mad since Barky strolled into the Oval Office. Actually, I'm in full-on rage mode now.
Posted by: Jane D'oh at March 22, 2011 06:03 AM (UOM48)
Posted by: Ben at March 22, 2011 09:59 AM (wuv1c)
If California and Arizona are any guide, you are grossly mistaken. They form ethnic enclaves and DO NOT assimilate.
Posted by: Reactionary at March 22, 2011 06:04 AM (xUM1Q)
Posted by: phoenixgirl at March 22, 2011 06:04 AM (eOXTH)
But there was not a single dick joke. Not one. I would have also accepted a gutterscrunge or syphilitic trollop joke.
I say this more in sadness than in anger. It concerns me. I am filled with concern.
Posted by: Muhammad's Left Nut at March 22, 2011 06:04 AM (QcFbt)
Posted by: Ben at March 22, 2011 06:04 AM (wuv1c)
Fortunately, there have been no big waves. Whew.
Posted by: Jane D'oh at March 22, 2011 06:05 AM (UOM48)
Posted by: nevergiveup at March 22, 2011 06:05 AM (0GFWk)
He just urged the FBI to investigate these economic terrorists.
Posted by: the kitty at March 22, 2011 06:10 AM (penCf)
This demographic collapse, combined with the failure of the welfare state, will accelerate the collapse with every year that goes by. Sarkozy and Merkel (finally!) recognize the danger, but probably too late to do anyone any good -- and they're still wedded, blood and bone, to the welfare-state model.
Posted by: Monty at March 22, 2011 09:49 AM (4Pleu)
I actually think that the collapse of the welfare state is going to save Europe from Muslims. Once the money really starts to dry up, it's going to be hard for the left to justify any immigration. Further, as the welfare state collapses, I think states will first *encourage* the muslims to leave through payments while the entitlements dry up.
After the welfare state fully collapses, I expect to see a large Muslim migration out of Europe or them to be forced out. It's one thing to be accommodating and generous when times are pereived to be good, it's suicidal to be taking food out of your own children's mouths to feed those that want to kill you after everything collapses. If Europe doesn't kick them out after the collapse, than they fully deserve any misery they get afterward.
What's going to make everything even more interesting is China will probably be boned when Europe and the US go under. I've been reading the occasional stories, ghost cities, inflationary pressures, etc. I believe they're also boned too which won't be good for any of their neighbours. I'd gladly fight to protect Korea though. Unlike Western Civilization which can't even acknowledge the Islamic threat, I don't think the Koreans are suicidal.
Posted by: Canadian Infidel at March 22, 2011 06:12 AM (GKQDR)
He just urged the FBI to investigate these economic terrorists.
Someone get Eric Holder on it!!
Posted by: Jane D'oh at March 22, 2011 06:12 AM (UOM48)
Posted by: Monty at March 22, 2011 06:13 AM (4Pleu)
Here? Well, precisely how far went Sen. Paul's 3-year balanced budget proposal - that if implemented would have still left about 70% of Uncle Sugar's largess entirely untouched, and would still have done nothing to start to pay-down this unpayable debt burden on our children and their childrens' children? Not very far. At all.
These savants in DC and on Wall Street know precisely what's coming - they're just kicking the ticking time-nuke down the road so they can get their own affairs in order and hope it goes off in some other chump's hand and not theirs.
Posted by: DocJ at March 22, 2011 06:16 AM (AWzOz)
I just don't see a solution for any of these nations. What could their governments do to encourage breeding? It can't even offer money as they are all out.
Posted by: Ben at March 22, 2011 09:59 AM (wuv1c)
Keep in mind that it's the welfare state itself that discourages breeding. Once you have the government promising to take care of you into old age, there's no reason to have several kids.
Once governement pensions and the welfare societies collapse, people have every reason to have 4 or 5 kids just in the hopes that 1 or 2 of them are both alive and financially capable of taking care of them in old age, since the government won't.
The collapse of the welfare state will increase the importance of strong families and also churches to take up some of the slack.
Posted by: Canadian Infidel at March 22, 2011 06:16 AM (GKQDR)
Posted by: the kitty at March 22, 2011 06:17 AM (penCf)
At least in a totalitarian socialist country, the ruling force can make decisions without regard to what the people want or expect, giving them the freedom (ironically) to keep the flawed system afloat for longer.
Posted by: nickless at March 22, 2011 06:17 AM (MMC8r)
Steven Spielberg's new 200 million dollar yacht
Posted by: kbdabear at March 22, 2011 06:18 AM (vdfwz)
Posted by: curious at March 22, 2011 06:19 AM (k1rwm)
Steven Spielberg's new 200 million dollar yacht
Posted by: kbdabear at March 22, 2011 10:18 AM (vdfwz)
a friend of mine says the yacht business is booming. The bunker business, not so much with the hollywood crowd since they are sure the noah's ark way, ala luxury yacht, is the way to go should it all end with tsunamis and earthquakes, they want to float away. It's too funny but people talk about it like it's coming and it's normal and what's wrong with me for not seeing it.
Posted by: curious at March 22, 2011 06:21 AM (k1rwm)
We're not going to see any of the money we're spending on entitlements and old people are useless anyway and we don't want to pay. Oh and by the way don't let any of them come around my condo/gated community and try to beg for money or mercy cause like they didn't plan and stuff and are just a drag on the economy of us energetic and worthy young people.
We've planned and stuff for our future. Who cares if we're ruthless little pricks who've been spoon fed from birth and had opportunity after opportunity offered to them just because of the country we live in. Like WE deserve those opportunities ... cause we do!
The rantings of spoiled brats whose economic antics put the world in the shitter and now that things are a little tight want everyone else to take it in the shorts cause they can't afford that new beemer or beach house. Fuck mom and dad they lived a long life and now it's time for them to get out of the way.
What goes around comes around you demented little whiners.
Not saying that the GOVERNMENT and POLITICIANS and THE ELECTORATE should've been better caretakers of the common weal but hey that's the nature of the beast and to blame those that lived with the system because IT WAS THE SYSTEM and seemed reasonable and HAD WORKED SO FAR are now to blame for a fiscal crisis due to unimaginably risky things being done IN SECRET AND BEHIND CLOSED DOORS where NO ONE knew how much potential trouble there could be is a bit unreasonable.
Remember when you point a finger at someone, 3 of them are pointing back at you.
Posted by: jakee308 at March 22, 2011 06:24 AM (fhTf7)
If California and Arizona are any guide, you are grossly mistaken. They form ethnic enclaves and DO NOT assimilate.
It takes time but they do. They did the same thing in Pittsburgh. When Eastern Europeans came to work in the mills they would live in areas with their own group. Czechs, Poles, Croats, etc.
It takes time buy they do assimilate. They will retain parts of their culuture, specifically their food.
I'm a perfect example. Grandmother was born in Poland, and I don't speak a lick of polish, I do enjoy polish food, I don't fly polish flags, I pull the pin on the grenade before I throw it, I'm american through and through.
It might take a little more time with Mexicans because their country of origin is so close, but they will eventually assimilate. We're like the borg, everyone eventually assimilates.
Posted by: Ben at March 22, 2011 06:24 AM (wuv1c)
The welfare state is inherently immoral because it destroys the very people it purports to help.
Posted by: Lee Reynolds at March 22, 2011 06:24 AM (/gY4D)
No. Nada. Never.
They don't have to 'Americanize' because we have been (like Europe) accommodating. Every package, lots of signs, gov't publications, etc are all publish in Mexican (according to BO). They aren't forced to find a job - we give them free health care and free paychecks and free housing.
They aren't forced to make friends with the Americans, which they were forced to do to get a job, place to live, etc many years ago.
In fact, the number of family crimes (crimes committed by/to family members) is rising for that very reason - the young don't agree that they need to Americanize. Columbus has had 2 similar attacks in the past year that I can think of. Even though the press called it a crime because 'a family member went crazy' , they quoted the young punk saying that his uncle (aunt, uncle ?) had lost his history. Had turned his back on his Mexican brothers.
What about the gang culture? Is that the way they assimilate?
Posted by: the kitty at March 22, 2011 06:25 AM (penCf)
Posted by: Monty at March 22, 2011 10:13 AM (4Pleu)
Wow, you're pretty good at analyzing financial doom and gloom, but unless this was an attempt at irony, it was a maybe the most inaccurate analogy and misguided understatement by a conservative I've seen in a long while.
Same kind of benefit?
Heh.
Posted by: ontherocks at March 22, 2011 06:25 AM (HBqDo)
Posted by: Barb the Evil Genius at March 22, 2011 06:25 AM (MyByM)
Article in WSJ: "Insolvency Looms as States Drain U.S. Disability Fund" by Damian Paletta
According to said article:
"Caguas's 00725 zip code has more people receive a disability check than any other in the U.S....In 2010, 63% of applicants won special approval" for disability due to health problems...9 of the top 10 U.S. zip codes for disabled workers receiving benefits can be found in Puerto Rico.
The SSDI is set to soon become the first big federal program to run out of cash--and one of the main reasons is U.S. states and territories have a large say in who qualifies for the federally funded program....The disability fund...will run dry in 4-7 years without federal government intervention, government auditors say.
...Unlike Medicare or Social Security...SSDI decisions are based in large part on medical opinions, which can vary from doctor to doctor and state to state. Because someone else pays the bills, local officials have little incentive to keep the numbers low....Anyone who spends 2 years on SSDI qualifies for the Medicare health program....The Government's lifetime financial commitment averages $300,000/person estimates David Autor, an SSDI expert who teaches at MIT.
In 2005, SSDI began spending more mondy than it brought in...in 2010, the number of beneficiaries grew by 498,488, the largest one year increase ever."
The article goes on to say that despite Puerto Rico's population dropping from 3.8 million to 3.7 in the last 10 years, the number of people receiving SSDI increased 25% over that same period. The culprit has been the bad economy. Thank you Obama!
Posted by: runningrn at March 22, 2011 06:26 AM (ihSHD)
Posted by: FRONT TOWARD LEFT at March 22, 2011 06:28 AM (Pzf4N)
Put bluntly, our former immigrants were simply of higher quality than our current ones. We are well into the second or even third generation of immigrants from Latin America by now, and we just aren't seeing the same kind of benefit from them that we have gotten from, e.g., the Jews, Germans, Italians, or the Irish.
The Cubans have done well for themselves.
I would agree with some of your points, but I think it will only prolong assimilation, but it's inevitable. It's gonna happen. It just might take longer than it had previously because of the technological changes you have mentioned.
Posted by: Ben at March 22, 2011 06:28 AM (wuv1c)
Don't feel like the Lone Ranger Phoenixgirl, eve Bob Dylan is pissed.
They'll bone you when you're trying to be so good
They'll bone you just like they said they would
They'll bone you when you're trying to go home
They'll bone you when you're there all alone
But I would not feel so all alone
Everybody must get boned
They'l lbone you when you're walking on the street
They'll bone you when you're trying to keep your seat
They'llbone you when your walking on the floor
They'll bone you when your walking to the door
But I would not feel so all alone
Everybody must get boned
They'll bone you when you're at the breakfast table
They'll bone you when you are young and able
They'll bone you when you're trying to make a buck
They'll bone you and then they'll say good luck
But I would not feel so all alone
Everybody must get boned
Well They'll bone you and say that it's the end
They'll bone you and then they'll come back again
They'll bone you when you're riding in your car
They'llbone you when you're playing you guitar
Yes But I would not feel so all alone
Everybody must get boned
Alright
Well They'll bone you when you are all alone
They'll bone you when you are walking home
They'll bone you and then say they're all brave
They'll bone you when you're send down in your grave
But I would not feel so all alone
Everybody must get boned
Posted by: maddogg at March 22, 2011 06:29 AM (OlN4e)
What about the gang culture? Is that the way they assimilate?
Like the Italian Madia? Yet the Italians assimilated.
Posted by: Ben at March 22, 2011 06:29 AM (wuv1c)
Yes, but there were jobs then. There were patriotic examples, parades, stories, etc., everywhere.
Even 20 years ago, you pretty much had to learn English, you had to self sufficient. You couldn't turn on the TV and see shows that bash America over and over again. You couldn't watch a lot of shows that show police running down and stealing from gangs, etc.
Every show on TV now shows bias, hatred, prejudice against people of all backgrounds. It shows Americans as haters, bigots, etc.
Posted by: the kitty at March 22, 2011 06:29 AM (penCf)
Posted by: Jean at March 22, 2011 06:33 AM (WkuV6)
Doom! Doom! Doom! Doom!
Lovely Doom! Wonderful Doom!
Doom Do-o-o-o-om Doom Do-o-o-o-om Doom.
Lovely Doom! Lovely Doom! Lovely Doom! Lovely Doom!
Doom Doom Doom Doom!
Sheesh, isn't this horse dead enough yet?
WE GET IT, WE'RE ALL BONED! WE WILL REMAIN BONED UNTIL WE ARE BONED FURTHER.
Golly, can you say Cassandra? I knew you could.
Monty; you really need to take a laxative or a sedative cause your outlook on life must be really painful for some reason.
Me, I wake up in the morning and I only ache in 4 or less parts of my body, I'm doing GOOOOOD!
So I don't need reminders how screwed up life can get.
Give us some solutions. Real. Practical. Politically viable.
Otherwise you're just pissing into the wind.
Posted by: jakee308 at March 22, 2011 06:35 AM (fhTf7)
I disagree. The greeks came with those folks you mention. They are third generation in Astoria queens, new york and they still live in the enclave, still speak greek and still only marry other greeks. The mexicans and the iranians who call themselves persians, do the same thing.
Sure the Italians and Germans and Czechs and poles and Irish assimilate and intermarried and it's wonderful but these people have no intention of assimilating and no intention of allowing their children to Americanize. The turks I know who are here plan to make their fortune here and go home, home is not America. The chinese and the indians are doing the same thing. The indians used to stay, steal their education from the government and stay, not any more, they go back home now.
Posted by: curious at March 22, 2011 06:35 AM (k1rwm)
Posted by: Monty at March 22, 2011 06:36 AM (4Pleu)
Posted by: jakee308 at March 22, 2011 10:35 AM (fhTf7)
Like your post?
Posted by: KG at March 22, 2011 06:38 AM (DeCj1)
Posted by: BUTCH at March 22, 2011 06:39 AM (0APJ3)
Calm down. I love Monty's posts. No one wants to talk about this, and you are a prime example. Even when you put a horrible link with horrible new information no one here wants to really discuss it but Monty and PA and a few of us who are watching this and being horrified further on a daily basis. If the conservatives and republicans were just a little bit better informed on the economy maybe we could shame the political class into doing something about it?
Oh and I always thought the DOOM part was Monty's running joke for this whole situation.
Posted by: curious at March 22, 2011 06:39 AM (k1rwm)
Ben @ 22 - I am far less sanguine than you about assimilation of the descendents of illegal Mexican immigrants. In years past, immigrants were expected to learn English and to become American. Nowadays, not so much.
We are on the same path as Eutrope, just not as far along.
DOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!!!ELEVENTY!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: BUTCH at March 22, 2011 06:41 AM (0APJ3)
runningrn - why socialism/welfare state doesn't work in a nutshell, dovetails nicely with the lead piece. You have the fiscal insanity, the political inefficiency, and the social collapse; all on one little island.
It's also epidemic here in the States too, but yes, it's worse there. According to that same article:
"In addition to the uneven selection process, SSDI has been pushed to the brinkof insolvency by the sour economy. A huge wave of applicants joined the program over the past decade, boosting it from 6.6 million beneficiaries in 2000 to 10.2 million in 2010. New recipients have come from across the country, with an 85% increase in TX over 10 years and a 69% increase in NH.
Over the years, Puerto Rico's dependence on SSDI has grown particularly stark, exacerbated by the closure of factories and U.S. military installations, an exodus of skilled workers and a number of corruption scandals."
We are truly boned and doomed.
Posted by: runningrn at March 22, 2011 06:43 AM (ihSHD)
Political Correctness and Affirmative action, two gifts from the Left that "keep on giving" while at the same time defying truly accurate definition.
Orwell lives.
Posted by: ontherocks at March 22, 2011 06:44 AM (HBqDo)
I don't get the generational warfare, either. It's just the next iteration of the "Red/Blue" game TPTB have been playing-us with forever. We're ALL going to have to take this in the shorts at some point - it's only whether we do it now, on what can reasonably be called "our terms", or do we just try to make due once the zombie apocalypse comes.
Posted by: DocJ at March 22, 2011 06:44 AM (AWzOz)
What VDH and Monty state is true in my experience as well.
When one lives right next to the home country and in large enough numbers, there is a psychological shift and assimilation is not even on the radar, at all.
East coast and midwest folks have only a glimmering of what it means to live in a border state and in a majority illegal area.
Posted by: Lives There at March 22, 2011 06:46 AM (1cx/R)
the entire point of the running DOOM half-joke is that there is no viable political solution. It doesn't exist. The will to do what needs doing does not exist in the American political class, or the populace at large.
It will continue to spiral downwards until it hits the wall. Not a crisis point where people say "Holy shit, they were serious about this debt stuff", but the wall - end of the line, game over, the country's finances are in pieces wall.
Nothing else will happen, because no one wants to admit that there is a problem in the first place. Even those that do recognize there is an issue want to avoid talking about it, because they'll be seen as either (A. delusional, or (B. scaremongering, and so they keep quiet, or propose 'modest' reforms that only delay the inevitable, and probably make it worse.
If you want a solution, here's one: Brace for impact.
Posted by: KinleyArdal at March 22, 2011 06:47 AM (8+OH8)
Posted by: DocJ at March 22, 2011 06:47 AM (AWzOz)
Posted by: jakee308 at March 22, 2011 10:35 AM (fhTf7)
Do you need me to come over and take the gun away from the person holding it to your head and forcing you to read these threads?
Solutions:
1. There's no political will anywhere for anyone to do anything close to what will stave off the collapse in America. But keep pushing your members of Congress to wise up and cut past the bone into the bone marrow.
2. As Monty pointed out yesterday, avoid debt like the plague. Pay off what you owe.
3. Prepare your family and do what you can to have basic supplies ready in case the worst happens. You'll have to do research and see what others have planned or recommend. I don't watch him much but Beck had some good suggestions as do many people here. If you're staying, guns and ammunition really couldn't hurt. If you have the means or inclination to try to ride it out elsewhere, do what you can.
No one's looking forward to this but to ignore it is just silly. America is one big catastrophe, terrorist attack, Western European Euro collapse from some serious hurt. It sucks but life isn't fair. I appreciate these threads and try to warn my family of the collapse. You can only do so much. Perceptions of reality differ. People magically hope everything will be all right.
And above all, take care.
Posted by: Canadian Infidel at March 22, 2011 06:49 AM (GKQDR)
Posted by: Monty at March 22, 2011 06:55 AM (4Pleu)
I would make fun of you and call you gay for quoting Byron, but then I'd have to admit I know it too.
Posted by: Entropy at March 22, 2011 06:57 AM (IsLT6)
Posted by: Canadian Infidel at March 22, 2011 06:59 AM (GKQDR)
Posted by: Monty at March 22, 2011 07:04 AM (4Pleu)
Posted by: Dave at March 22, 2011 07:06 AM (gzJsG)
You can prepare for the worst(insurance against hunger)in case it goes south.
If nothing happens you are out some money, not really because you can still eat what you bought.
Ignore the situation.
If nothing happens, then you can sit back and relax.
If things go south, you are screwed, you and your family will be in a line with the rest of the people looking for the government to feed you, and they might want something in return for that food.
Posted by: MarkC at March 22, 2011 07:15 AM (yPPVC)
What VDH and Monty state is true in my experience as well.
When one lives right next to the home country and in large enough numbers, there is a psychological shift and assimilation is not even on the radar, at all.
East coast and midwest folks have only a glimmering of what it means to live in a border state and in a majority illegal area.
Posted by: Lives There at March 22, 2011 10:46 AMWhen I lived in CA, there was a "strike" by illegals who didn't go to work or buy stuff. The result was traffic was a lot lighter that day.
The Lefties who have a mult-culti fetish and their La Raza comrades never shut up about how CA's economy would collapse without the billions that the illegals spend there.
Maybe those who handle Postales would take a big hit, but they never factor in the balance of money in vs money spent on hospitals, schools, courts, social services, etc.
Posted by: kbdabear at March 22, 2011 07:16 AM (vdfwz)
Posted by: George Orwell at March 22, 2011 07:18 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: Empire of Jeff at March 22, 2011 07:20 AM (TATbF)
I disagree; it was a combination of two things, cultural and economic. Cultural because at that time there was still a strong work ethic in everyone. It was considered "shameful" to take charity. And economic because in the early 20th century we had not rolled into full socialism yet. We were starting on fascism with the government rolling out regulations but not socialism yet. Charity was left to the churches and charities.
You either worked or you starved then. The emigrants from the "old country" came over and they did gather in their own enclaves and they did retain their languages for a while. BUT they did work towards assimilating because that is the way you got work and got ahead. We were a "mixing bowl" then. Now we are a salad bowl and celebrate "diversity" and communism.
THAT is why we are DOOMED.
Posted by: Vic at March 22, 2011 07:31 AM (M9Ie6)
Posted by: Jean at March 22, 2011 07:33 AM (WkuV6)
My reply, "Yeah Dad, well, someone's 401k may have climbed all the way back, but not mine - not even close - and it's not like that matters when food and gas are 40% more expensive than 2-years ago, right?" seemed to not please him in the least.
That's what we're up against, folks.
Posted by: DocJ at March 22, 2011 07:33 AM (AWzOz)
Posted by: curious at March 22, 2011 07:39 AM (k1rwm)
Posted by: Monty at March 22, 2011 07:41 AM (4Pleu)
Posted by: curious at March 22, 2011 07:41 AM (k1rwm)
Monty, are you correct that debt in government must be avoided like the plague? YES. However: debt in a central currency printing government is NOT like what you think it is.
Your analysis is correct for non currency printing governments; cities and states. Unfortunately you extend that analysis to the central currency printing government - as do most people - and by doing so you fall squarely into two devastating traps that the left has laid out for the economically unwary.
The government can't create wealth by printing money - wealth is created by the private sector. I think we can both agree with that statement. There is a corollary to that truth; by destroying money in its possession the government can't destroy wealth either. That is why if you pay your taxes in cash the government just burns the money - it is not destroying wealth for it to do so. For anybody outside of the currency printing entity burning money would destroy wealth.
I'll give you an analogy. It is obvious that which end of a gun you are on matters; for the person aiming the gun conditions are very different than they are for the people not aiming the gun. Things which matter very much to everyone else don't matter for the person aiming the gun. In a similar fashion which side of the money printing press you are on makes a huge difference.
Imagine for a second that you could legally print US Dollars. If you think about it you will realize that there are no circumstances where you would ever have to borrow money from anyone. Money does not mean the same thing to the printing entity that it does to everyone else.
Now suppose that as the money printer you "borrowed" money from somebody else. As the money printer you can neither create wealth by printing money, or destroy wealth by burning money in your possession. What do you do with the money you have "borrowed"? You burn it; how many dollars you take in does not effect how many dollars you can print. When the money is in your possession it is no longer money - it is worthless scraps of paper (linen actually) - what you do with it is meaningless. The money only has value when it is in circulation outside of the printing entity.
When the government sells debt to foreign entities it is running a massive con - it is not using the money to 'balance the budget' - what it is actually doing is agreeing to transfer wealth at some future point to that foreign entity. In other words it is a massive left wing wealth redistribution scheme.
That is the first trap for people who don't understand the difference between a currency printing government and a non currency printing government.
The second trap is a world currency - that would reduce the United States to the status of a non currency producing state - which really does have to collect taxes for every penny it spends.It would also establish a de-facto world government. People like you will fall right into that left wing trap because you don't understand the unique position and power of a money printing government - so you think it doesn't matter who prints the money. I can promise you it does matter. Allow there to be a world currency and freedom is dead.
Posted by: An Observation at March 22, 2011 07:44 AM (ylhEn)
Now, that contributed, however, I think it is naive to think it was merely that that brought it down.
Now, I think Beck thinks the unions are trying to collapse the system. And, if you look at the SEIU protesters at the bank and what went on in WI, you might think this is true.
I'm not sure what is going on but we, the patient, aren't getting better.
Posted by: curious at March 22, 2011 07:47 AM (k1rwm)
How does that differ from any loan? When I borrow money, I promise to transfer wealth to the lender at some future date.
Posted by: toby928™ trys on scrooge's nightcap at March 22, 2011 07:49 AM (GTbGH)
Posted by: Monty at March 22, 2011 07:50 AM (4Pleu)
Posted by: Monty at March 22, 2011 07:53 AM (4Pleu)
Posted by: curious at March 22, 2011 11:39 AM (k1rwm)
What part of the NBC do you not get about CNBC?
I used to watch daily back to the mid '90's but stopped in about half way thru Bush since it became obvious that it wasn't about business anymore.
As far as Lefty blogs with Soros, Media Matters is and Huffington Puffington was (before AOL), any lefty blog with reach he contaminates, count on it.
Posted by: ontherocks at March 22, 2011 07:54 AM (HBqDo)
"to blame those that lived with the system because IT WAS THE SYSTEM and seemed reasonable and HAD WORKED SO FAR are now to blame for a fiscal crisis due to unimaginably risky things being done IN SECRET AND BEHIND CLOSED DOORS where NO ONE knew how much potential trouble there could be is a bit unreasonable."
Social Security was a ponzi scheme. That was obvious to anyone willing to face the truth. Ponzi schemes can go on a longtime before they collapse but they inevitably always collapse. What keeps the ponzi going as long as they do is that the people who get taken in at the beginning become co-conspirators with those who set it up. They do all the work of bringing in new victims. The guy who set it up just sits back and watches the money roll in.
I've had this same argument with people who were otherwise very level headed. Their position boiled down to this:
We were stupid enough to pay into this system so that obligates you to be equally stupid!
Fine.
But here's your problem: there are x number of people drawing on SS and y number of people paying into it and there aren't enough y's to pay for all the x's.
No legislation can overturn the reality of long division.
I think that you're smart enough to understand this and you probably betted that SS would go tits up a lot later than it has.
Bad bet.
Posted by: RayJ at March 22, 2011 07:56 AM (2oRAd)
Monty,
I just read the full article. It was a good read but the author was very optimistic in that conservative compromise could slowly bring about the needed changes to Social Security and other programs in time to avoid hitting the brick wall. Maybe I'm just staring at the usdebtclock website too often, but when debt has increased 5 trillion dollars in 3 years, I just don't see this as a time for any sort of compromise. He has great ideas, but as you pointed out, they're not politically practical.
EmpireofJeff
Thanks. Obviously, I'm not 100% thrilled with the idea since I will be leaving behind family here and in America. But I'm happy with the choice in that I'm sure my future kids will have a higher quality of life in South Korea than they will in either Canada or the United States (sadly). Honestly, I get so angry and ticked off, I just wish revolutions would start now so we can clean up the mess and move on but that doesn't look like it's going to happen.
I'm aware of having to renounce citizenship. I have my first appointment to renounce US citizenship next week. Honestly, I'm reading the DOOM threads more just to remind myself that it's the right decision. Listening to the media, everything is peachy. In reality, I know where things are going, I still hope to make a lot of money in the future and I'm scared how confiscatory the US government will get. The Canadian nanny / welfare state is increasingly unbearable. We actually have human rights tribunals. It's increasingly insane. Renouncing Canadian citizenship will not be that hard emotionally or intellectually. The liberals raised what they wanted - a *citizen of the world* with no particular national loyalty - not towards what they've created anyway.
I'm a white guy with no visibly Korean features. But I've lived there before and had no problems. I found a nice small church (first time I ever voluntarily joined.) After breaking my arm there, they took really good care of me. My pastor's wife came to the hospital 17 straight days to wash me up every morning - I love that woman. They were working on finding me a wife before I injured myself.
I've heard about Korean racism, but honestly I'm pretty sure my own Canadian government here in Canada despises me for being a white man. As I see it, I'll face the same challenges as most Asians faced in the past coming to North America. I'll make my own way. I don't expect anything from the government aside from letting me legally make money in peace. I'll want to serve in their military once I become a citizen since every Korean male has to serve. I'm older but I'm still going to want to serve. I'm going to want to be able to do my part and know what needs to be done if the country ever has to be defended.
It won't be easy, but it should be exciting. And as we know from these threads, we're going to be living in exciting times pretty much anywhere.
All the best!
Posted by: Canadian Infidel at March 22, 2011 08:05 AM (GKQDR)
It takes balls to do what you're doing. A generation ago, people like you came to north america.
It says a lot if people like you are leaving.
But be very careful. South Korea is an American ally and being an American ally during this administration can be a dangerous thing.
So don't burn your bridges and always have a plan to get the hell outa Dodge if the SHTF.
Good luck.
Posted by: RayJ at March 22, 2011 08:12 AM (2oRAd)
Posted by: RayJ at March 22, 2011 12:12 PM (2oRAd)
Thanks. I think the scariest part is I'm at the start of what will probably be a small trend of people leaving North America, although to be honest, the boning is going to be so severe across all the Western economies, there's not going to be anywhere better to go.
And if the SHTF in Korea, I won't want to get out of there. I'll stand with them. That's my line in the sand.
You take care also.
Posted by: Canadian Infidel at March 22, 2011 08:23 AM (GKQDR)
In the 1st generation two groups show the least English proficiency - Mexicans and Chinese. Chinese because Chinese and English are polar opposite languages and very hard to learn one if you grew up on the other. And Mexicans because they just don't have to.
But by the 3rd generation the Chinese immigrants have near 100% English fluency while the Mexicans are still around 70%.
So most Mexican will assimilate, eventually. But the process is much slower than for other groups. And having almost a third of 3rd generation Mex-Americans not being fluent in English is sad indictment of our system.
Posted by: Muhammad's Left Nut at March 22, 2011 08:44 AM (QcFbt)
Posted by: Empire of Jeff at March 22, 2011 08:55 AM (OW0nw)
Posted by: An Observation at March 22, 2011 11:44 AM (ylhEn)
Thank you for that post. So long as our debts are denominated in dollars we need never default on any debts, and deficits can be much more effectively managed than with a convertible currency. Yes - deficits can get way too large as we've seen, but they're not always the moral evil they're made out to be.
For anyone interested in how the fiat money system works at the federal level I suggest the first few chapters of Understanding Modern Money by L. Randall Wray.
Even money made from gold and silver is not the currency cure-all. In the 1700's precious metal coins traded in exchanges in Amsterdam and Hamburg at rates that fluctuated almost daily. The primary value of coined or printed or digital money has always been the same - you can pay taxes with it. The private use of money for non-government transactions is purely secondary. And I for one do NOT want to have to pay my taxes in a commodity or set of commodities, nor would I be interested in accepting such in exchange for services I offered to the government.
Posted by: Reactionary at March 22, 2011 09:01 AM (xUM1Q)
Posted by: FireHorse at March 22, 2011 09:12 AM (k3RPu)
Yah, what the heck we gonna do, we're going to be crushed by this....
Libya! Squirrel!
Now what were we talking about? Oh yes. Does Prince Barcky have the power to make war on Libya without asking Congress? Discuss. Lefties and Cons say No. Would Congress agree if Barky asked? Everyone says Yes. All is well.
Posted by: snort! at March 22, 2011 09:20 AM (K/USr)
(If you doubt me, look at the protests in Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Indiana... Even when the writing is on the wall, the population does their best to ignore it.)
Posted by: Charlie Gibson at March 22, 2011 09:22 AM (5xxpe)
If you go back to Gold that is not a problem - but it means you can't allow anyone to charge interest. Our ancestors understood that point. Why is that so? Because interest obeys an exponential growth curve - if money is fixed in supply the people charging interest wind up with all of it and that is the end of the economy. THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED. It was called the Great Depression.
Why do I say that a World Government is the end of Freedom? Are you people idiots? Freedom is in enough trouble in this country. You will be voted into a communist or equivalent state if you allow a World Government to exist. The US has most of the wealth - guess who will be "from each according to their ability" and guess who will be "to each according to their need".. Allowing a world currency establishes the currency printing entity as the world government.
The problem with a fiat currency is that it requires the fiscal discipline to grow the currency at the rate that the economy is growing. There is no perfect solution to the problem of money - either you go to hard currency and get rid of interest - which slows the rate of growth of the economy or you go fiat money which requires discipline and education of the populace.
Now changing to the issue of government debt. Consider the trade deficit situation if the Chinese aren't able to by US Government indebtedness - their supply of dollars builds and the only way they have of getting rid of them is by buying things from us - that is how free trade is supposed to work. Selling them government debt - reduces our wealth while giving us nothing in return. Free trade benefits both sides. A trade imbalance can't exist long term without selling government indebtedness.
Posted by: An Observation at March 22, 2011 09:28 AM (ylhEn)
Posted by: Monty at March 22, 2011 09:49 AM (4Pleu)
http://tinyurl.com/64fefyl
Posted by: PJ at March 22, 2011 10:08 AM (4Tc6B)
2. As Monty pointed out yesterday, avoid debt like the plague. Pay off what you owe.
WTF for? If the government goes broke why would I care about paying off the bank? If it's anarchy in the streets, you think a good credit rating will matter?
Posted by: steve at March 22, 2011 10:24 AM (2iVD6)
WHERE WAS IT PHYSICALLY LOCATED?
I say it was sitting in Bank Vaults where it couldn't circulate because the Banks and other financial entities owned it all. If I am a bank and I own all the money how can I loan you any? How will you pay me back - with money I already own?
The proof of what I say is what happened next. Roosevelt made it illegal to own gold and required everyone to turn it in to THE BANKS, not to the government. For every ounce you turned in you got a $20 bill. Before that act gold was $12 an ounce. In other words Roosevelt inflated the currency so that the banks wouldn't own it all and there could be an economy - and the banks got their gold which sat in their vaults until World War II.
Now that is my explanation of where the money was during the great depression - tell me your alternative explanation.
Posted by: An Observation at March 22, 2011 10:30 AM (ylhEn)
A modest suggestion, following Mr. Levin's thoughts: Force school kids to learn bookkeeping and basic accounting. Then encourage continuing education in these subjects for the grown-ups.
Levin mentioned the financial crisis of 2008 and the need to take care of the elderly, financially. What politicians don't (and can't) say is how both problems are, to a degree, millions of personal failures with their money. These failures were brought on by misplaced trust, which stemmed from ignorance. It's not that people are dumb; they're just smart in other things and ignored their education in money and finance because they deemed it unimportant.
(Seriously: If people were steeped in financial knowledge from an early age, would there have been as many mortgage defaults as there have been in the last few years? Would people be saving and investing more for their own retirement years? Maybe I'm barking up the wrong tree here.)
Posted by: FireHorse at March 22, 2011 10:49 AM (k3RPu)
Posted by: Monty at March 22, 2011 11:37 AM (4Pleu)
FDR had to ban private ownership of monetary gold because the banks and other financial institutions owned all of the monetary gold due to long term effects of interest.Compared to the monetary amount in circulation the amount in jewelery is very small.
The reason that the era before the stock market crash was known as the roaring 20's is because the huge amount of money that the banks had made off of interest enabled them to loan money to almost anybody- even for absurd purposes like gambling it on the margin in the stock market. The roaring twenties were the final step before the interest chargers owned all the monetary gold.and the economy effectively shut down in '32.
Please explain why FDR inflated Gold from $12 to $20 an ounce. Your absurd explanation - that individuals were hording gold wouldn't require that would it? My explanation does explain it.
Claiming that people by 1932 were hoarding gold is like claiming that people today are hoarding big sums of fiat money and not spending it, and that is why we have an economic slowdown - that is just absurd.
By 1932 people were desperate - they didn't have all that much monetary gold to turn in to the BANKS. You haven't explained why horders would have to turn the gold in to the banks and not the government.
If people were hoarding gold - why wouldn't they hoard paper money also?
Sorry, your explanation makes zero sense when examined. Try again - where was the money?
Posted by: An Observation at March 22, 2011 12:54 PM (ylhEn)
interest is not healthy for human beings or other living creatures, interest was called "usery" at one time, they called it that for a reason.
I hate to sound like a leftie but this is true: interest is a means by which rich people are legally allowed to steal from poor people.
... but, but banks can't exist without interest!
they certainly did, and they certainly can again.
Posted by: Shoey at March 22, 2011 02:08 PM (473WA)
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heh
Posted by: chemjeff at March 22, 2011 05:19 AM (V3JvX)