June 06, 2011
— CAC The naïve answer: No way! They love him there!
He has carried this district by margins of 2-1 or better in every election except 2010- a high water mark for Republicans where he still beat GOP candidate Robert Turner by a 61-39 margin.
The more thorough answer? See below. If Weiner receives any additional fallout, he may very well have a tough time getting re-elected.
In 2008, with Obama at the top of the ticket, and no real challenger, Weiner won 112,000 votes out of 120,000 votes cast.
In 2010, facing an underfunded challenger in a GOP wave year, his share crashed to 67,000 out of 110,000 votes cast.
More worrisome perhaps is that having Obama at the top won't neutralize his current problems. President Obama himself only carried this district by a 55-44 margin- worse than Kerry or Gore.
What makes the district potentially competitive?
From Wikipedia:
"The district, like almost all districts encompassing New York City, is Democratic, although significantly less so than the districts surrounding it. In order to accommodate surrounding districts with majority black or Hispanic populations (the 6th, 10th, 11th and 12th), it has been drawn to consist primarily of middle-class white neighborhoods (the district as a whole is 71% Caucasian, 14.5% Asian, 13.6% Hispanic and 4% African-American). The district includes large Jewish, Italian, and Irish populations."
The district is NYC's 2nd most conservative at just D+5 PVI. Its most conservative district, Staten Island's CD13, went red in 2010.
It can be said, looking at the Presidential race results in this district, that it has become more conservative over the last decade. Obama's 55% share is 12 points lower than Gore's in 2000.
So if Robert Turner, who lost by 20 points in 2010, ran a well-funded campaign against a broken Weiner in 2012, New York City may have its 2nd Republican flip in 2 years. If said Republican had a little ideological give, it could even stay red.
Serious scandals can destroy congressmen, even in heavily, heavily slanted districts.
Just ask Dan Rostenkowski. His D+19 district advantage couldn't save him in 1994.
Posted by: CAC at
02:07 PM
| Comments (85)
Post contains 364 words, total size 2 kb.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at June 06, 2011 02:09 PM (LH6ir)
Posted by: Thereddianthus at June 06, 2011 02:09 PM (6pOxW)
Posted by: Steph at June 06, 2011 02:09 PM (AkdC5)
Posted by: MikeTheMoose at June 06, 2011 02:09 PM (0q2P7)
Posted by: Y-not at June 06, 2011 02:10 PM (pW2o8)
He's useless to the dems as a media schill. He's only good for one vote. If he's pushed out there will be a special election. They will try to do that, now, instead of waiting for the repubs to get organized and ready to take his seat.
Well, at least, that's what I would do, but I'm not a dumb asswipe dem.
Posted by: Steph at June 06, 2011 02:12 PM (AkdC5)
Posted by: MikeTheMoose at June 06, 2011 02:12 PM (0q2P7)
Posted by: winger bob at June 06, 2011 02:12 PM (uZJOg)
Posted by: Nancy Pelosi at June 06, 2011 02:12 PM (mka2b)
I'm tweeting again after my apology presser, and the only change I'm making in my behavior is stopping the phone sex.
Posted by: Anthony Weiner, D-New York at June 06, 2011 02:12 PM (cwFVA)
Posted by: ParisParamus at June 06, 2011 02:13 PM (cdCC7)
Posted by: Guy Fawkes at June 06, 2011 02:16 PM (ldUCK)
Posted by: jimmytheleg at June 06, 2011 02:17 PM (Y2//x)
Posted by: cinyc at June 06, 2011 02:17 PM (RXV4p)
Posted by: rockhead at June 06, 2011 02:17 PM (ZMHGo)
Posted by: DewyK at June 06, 2011 02:17 PM (13I/s)
Posted by: Arbalest at June 06, 2011 02:18 PM (x4ns6)
So can we dispel last week's prevailing notion that New York state voters serve as the bellwether for political momentum? Any state that elects a Spitzer, Hillary, Rangel, Schumer, and a Weiner shouldn't really garner that much influence.
Although speaking as an Illanoyan, I shouldn't criticize other state's voters too quickly.
Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at June 06, 2011 02:18 PM (DPM1U)
Posted by: #Comely Coed at June 06, 2011 02:18 PM (QKKT0)
Posted by: Steph at June 06, 2011 02:19 PM (AkdC5)
Posted by: observer at June 06, 2011 02:19 PM (GExfX)
Posted by: Chris Hansen at June 06, 2011 02:19 PM (QKKT0)
I spoke with over 311 of my progressive friends (in NY City, which is the only real intelligent place in the country) and EVERYONE of them is ready to forgive Rep Weiner. I said, "but he lied". They said Rethuglicans do worse! and Palin feeds C-4 to Polar Bears and then shoots them in their tummys!
I thought they made good points and I didn't have a come back. They really do have a point about the poor exploding Polar Bears.
Posted by: Curio Cabinet of NY at June 06, 2011 02:20 PM (LXPet)
tcatrose (484 posts)
Mon Jun-06-11 06:08 PM
Response to Original message 41. I was ready to write all sorts of letters to editors, etc. And now he's confessed and apologized to everyone, including Bright Bat.
What now?
Get psychiatric help.
Posted by: Chuckit at June 06, 2011 02:20 PM (I14H4)
Posted by: Hoystory at June 06, 2011 02:20 PM (zm0wr)
Key to this, and other districts, is you run against the DEMOCRATS as a party... not individual Democrats.
You just show the stats from before they took Congressional Power... and then today... and ask people if they are better off now, than then...
You show how their POLICIES have failed... and DO NOT get personal about it... make it an ISSUES election...
Then Weiner, and everyone around him, will go down....
Posted by: Romeo13 at June 06, 2011 02:20 PM (NtXW4)
Posted by: The Man Between The Cans at June 06, 2011 02:20 PM (7YKsD)
I hope that Breitbart's next surprise is not that Weiner is goatse.
Posted by: wooga at June 06, 2011 02:20 PM (2p0e3)
Posted by: Mayor-Apparent Christine Quinn at June 06, 2011 02:20 PM (a5ljo)
Posted by: izoneguy at June 06, 2011 02:20 PM (i6Neb)
Nancy Pelosi has called for an ethics investigation as to whether gubmint resources were used.
Posted by: observer at June 06, 2011 06:19 PM (GExfX)
Let me give the final outcome to Pelosi's investigation:
We thoroughly investigated Congressman Weiner's activities, and found no infractions of the rules. Congressman Weiner has my full support and the matter is closed.
Posted by: Fish the Impaler at June 06, 2011 02:21 PM (cwFVA)
Posted by: some dope at June 06, 2011 02:21 PM (+kznc)
You let the Foley shit stew for months with no investigation so you could wait for the maximum political advantage.
Now you're quick to get the ball rolling?
Sit on a cactus, bitch.
Posted by: logprof at June 06, 2011 02:21 PM (BP6Z1)
Posted by: nickless at June 06, 2011 02:22 PM (NeAAY)
Nancy Pelosi has called for an ethics investigation as to whether gubmint resources were used.
One of the Weiner Women claims that she returned one of his calls, and it went to an official government phone.
Posted by: runningrn at June 06, 2011 02:22 PM (ihSHD)
Posted by: Weiner/Goatse.cx 2012 at June 06, 2011 02:22 PM (2p0e3)
Posted by: buzz at June 06, 2011 02:23 PM (lJmD1)
Posted by: nerdygirl at June 06, 2011 02:23 PM (j/5DA)
Posted by: jimmytheleg at June 06, 2011 02:23 PM (Y2//x)
Posted by: t-bird at June 06, 2011 02:23 PM (FcR7P)
Posted by: observer at June 06, 2011 06:19 PM (GExfX)
That's my impression as well. I figured he'd skate on this but if Pelosi is actually launching an investigation, under the bus he goes.
Posted by: ErikW at June 06, 2011 02:23 PM (+m2o+)
Posted by: Miss'80sBaby at June 06, 2011 02:24 PM (2wfuC)
Posted by: observer at June 06, 2011 06:19 PM (GExfX)
Bwwwwaaahahahhhhaaaaahaaaa! Thanks, I needed a laugh this afternoon. Now time to check on my rental properties.
Posted by: Charlie Rangel at June 06, 2011 02:24 PM (XthHy)
Posted by: nerdygirl at June 06, 2011 02:25 PM (j/5DA)
It's kind of like you hope the team you hate doesn't get rid of that pitcher who always gives up home runs in the 9th inning to blow their games.
Posted by: kbdabear at June 06, 2011 02:25 PM (vdfwz)
Posted by: Huma Abedin at June 06, 2011 02:25 PM (QKKT0)
Posted by: Miss'80sBaby at June 06, 2011 06:24 PM (2wfuC)
Fundraising gold. Same reason they kept that functional retard Grayson on board. The Koskids love 'em.
Posted by: wooga at June 06, 2011 02:25 PM (2p0e3)
Posted by: Fish the Impaler at June 06, 2011 06:21 PM (cwFVA)
That won't fly. The woman that gave the inteview to ABC also gave them her phone records from when he called from his office, and she called him back.
Posted by: Steph at June 06, 2011 02:25 PM (AkdC5)
I spoke with over 311 of my progressive friends (in NY City, which is the only real intelligent place in the country) and EVERYONE of them is ready to forgive Rep Weiner. I said, "but he lied". They said Rethuglicans do worse! and Palin feeds C-4 to Polar Bears and then shoots them in their tummys!
I thought they made good points and I didn't have a come back. They really do have a point about the poor exploding Polar Bears.
Posted by: Curio Cabinet of NY at June 06, 2011 06:20 PM (LXPet)
Jesus, that sounds like every discussion I have ever had with a commie progressive
Posted by: Lemmiwinks at June 06, 2011 02:26 PM (pdRb1)
Posted by: Larry Kroger at June 06, 2011 02:27 PM (a5ljo)
Posted by: Thereddianthus at June 06, 2011 06:09 PM (6pOxW)
It actually makes sense. Call for the ethics review now. Get him kicked out as soon as possible if they need to so this can't be as an effective weapon when the election roles around like they did with Mark Foley.
Posted by: buzzion at June 06, 2011 02:27 PM (oVQFe)
"Her mother is an educationist serving in Saudi Arabia. "
Fuck me, I just realized it is a Pakistani story. That explains the ESL bit.
Posted by: fluffy, illiterate in one language at June 06, 2011 02:28 PM (SwkdU)
Jeebers. This puke worthy. If you somehow didn't know Matthews was a giant pustule, you know it now.
Short clip @ real radio
Posted by: Steph at June 06, 2011 02:31 PM (AkdC5)
Regarding Dan Rostenkowski's loss in 1994 in IL-5 to a Republican, the rest of the story is also interesting. The Republican was a guy with a very Irish name, Michael Flanagan. Running for anything in Chicago with an Irish name like that is well begun.
Next election in 1996, Flanagan lost to Rod Blagojevich (yes that guy).
When Blagojevich moved on to the Illinois governor's office in 2002, Rahm Emanual ran for and won the IL-5 seat.
Let's hope WeinerMan moves on or gets booted out. It leads to new corruptocrats getting a seat at the table.
Posted by: Boots at June 06, 2011 02:31 PM (neKzn)
Posted by: GnuBreed at June 06, 2011 02:31 PM (ENKCw)
Jeebers. This puke worthy. If you somehow didn't know Matthews was a giant pustule, you know it now.
Wow! Mr. Tingles really stuck his Weiner in his mouth. Why not suggest Maria Shriver's to blame for Ahnold's love child? Those women being abused?.......shouldn't have talked back. People being raped?......shouldn't have dressed like that.
How has he stayed on television this long. Me thinks he must have similar pics of MSNBC producers to still be on the air.
Posted by: landofskybluewater at June 06, 2011 02:37 PM (XthHy)
He'd likely only be allowed to mouth-off the way he once did if he was an ex-congressman. So they'd retain ties like with Grayson but keeping him in the limelight now only hurts them.
Posted by: Miss'80sBaby at June 06, 2011 02:41 PM (2wfuC)
Posted by: The Man Between The Cans at June 06, 2011 02:44 PM (7YKsD)
Posted by: nerdygirl at June 06, 2011 02:45 PM (j/5DA)
Posted by: nerdygirl at June 06, 2011 02:46 PM (j/5DA)
Posted by: ftdigital at June 06, 2011 02:48 PM (d3sDw)
Posted by: nerdygirl at June 06, 2011 02:51 PM (j/5DA)
Posted by: Queens Wop at June 06, 2011 02:54 PM (xaCZY)
Posted by: Trimegistus at June 06, 2011 03:36 PM (0u1B1)
Posted by: av at June 06, 2011 03:42 PM (XgePz)
These are not the Left Wing- Communist-homosexual-pornographers of the upper west side.
Posted by: av at June 06, 2011 07:42 PM (XgePz)
Congressional District 9 is the end result of pandering and gerrymandering the rest of the city. If you keep packing and packing and packing Democrats into ridiculously lopsided districts (like the one up in the Bronx that gave Obama 95% of its vote), you are going to have districts that become more competitive or balanced bordering them.
Posted by: CAC at June 06, 2011 04:26 PM (dTagR)
Maybe Ace can challenge Weiner.
That would be the sweetest of sweet campaigns.
Posted by: chemjeff at June 06, 2011 04:56 PM (7mSYS)
Posted by: Ken at June 06, 2011 05:01 PM (m0him)
Posted by: lansing quaker at June 06, 2011 06:13 PM (w88NO)
Posted by: lansing quaker at June 06, 2011 06:21 PM (w88NO)
They're furious.
If a Dimwit loses the women's vote, he's outta there. They asked 4 or 5 women, different races, and they all said "get rid of the bum." They were all totally cynical about his excuses, too.
Of the two men they interviewed, one said "Uh, whatever you do in your personal life is your own business" (obviously a sleaze). The other, who looked like Vin Diesel, said, "If he lies about all this with a straight face, how are we going to know when he's lying about something else? For that alone, I'd say get him out of there."
Indeed.
Posted by: Beverly at June 06, 2011 07:41 PM (UFvpQ)
Sheesh, don't get your boxers in a wad over nothing!
Posted by: Beverly at June 06, 2011 07:45 PM (UFvpQ)
If his district re-elects the Weiner, we should nuke the entire site from orbit.
That much concentrated stupid must not be allowed to infect the earth.
Posted by: houndofdoom at June 06, 2011 08:45 PM (CFrIf)
Posted by: Rex the Wonder God at June 07, 2011 02:43 AM (NHeC0)
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Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at June 06, 2011 02:08 PM (LH6ir)