August 26, 2011
— Ace If you saw it, someone spoofed Paul Krugman as saying a really big juicy hurricane would get this economy going again.
Spoof, but Krugman really is a big believer in the Broken Windows Fallacy the idea that wanton destruction of property is actually stimulative and hence good for the economy, as people have to go out and buy replacements for all they've lost.
This animates (partly) the idea that WWII was what got us out of the Depression.
Liberals keep arguing that it is literally true that a vandal going up and down a street shattering windows is doing a public service, for that vandalism of $1000 worth of windows will result in the spurring of $1500 of new economic activity.
The reason this is a fallacy is that while it may be true that $1000 may have to be spent on replacement windows, and that spending may spur $500 in additional, secondary-effect spending (the glazier can now buy a horse), it only seems so if you ignore the other parties, the hidden men, in this parable.
What about the tailor, who would have sold a $200 suit if his client had not needed to divert that $200 to buying new windows? And so on. The glazier is doing gangbusters business, but the butcher, baker, and candlestick maker now find their clients cutting back.
All that's really happened here is exactly what it intuitively seemed like was happening -- property was being destroyed, and hence, people were poorer. The attempt to be clever and see something counterintuitive fails; those who sought to look clever instead look dumb.
I busted on Matt Yglesias' chops on Twitter -- he was really pushing this nonsense -- and asked him, "If losing property leads to greater wealth, can I have all your shit? Win win, baby."
Thusfar my invitation to accept all of his shit, forcing him to buy new shit, and thus making him wealthier (?), has gone unaccepted.
Anyway, this article accidentally explains why that is a fallacy.
Hurricane Irene sent East Coast shoppers into stores to stock up on essentials this week, instead of the clothes, notebooks and other supplies that retailers were counting on selling as children get ready to go back to school.Chains such as Home Depot Inc (HD.N) and Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N) were doing brisk business on Friday, selling water, flashlights, batteries and other goods in states standing in Irene's potential track from the Carolinas to Massachusetts.
"Most probably, the biggest demand right now is for generators, obviously," said Suzanne Roche, manager of a Sears (SHLD.O) store in Wilmington, North Carolina. "We have got customers calling nonstop."
...
Those who were not trying to squeeze in one last summer stay on the New Jersey shore or Long Island beaches may have been planning to go to shopping malls to buy clothes, shoes and other items for children who will soon head back to school. Now those plans will be on hold.
"Nobody is going to go to a mall to buy a pair of jeans," said Richard Hastings, consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities.
Exactly, and that is why it is called Hurricane Irene, not Economic Miracle Irene.
Posted by: Ace at
02:50 PM
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Post contains 552 words, total size 3 kb.
Posted by: toby928™ at August 26, 2011 02:51 PM (GTbGH)
I have to copy this from earlier because it was spot on:
Why wait for a hurricaine?
Why don't they just burn their own houses down? Don't they love their fellow man enough to do this thing for us?
Posted by: toby928™ at August 26, 2011 02:54 PM (GTbGH)
I didn't say it in The New York Times.
See the difference wingnuts.
Now, let me go blow my nose on my worthless Enron stock that I was a consultant for.
Posted by: Paul Krugman at August 26, 2011 02:56 PM (VxqUc)
Posted by: AoSHQ Stylebook at August 26, 2011 02:57 PM (GTbGH)
My freezer is crammed with blu-ice. If the electricty goes out, I'll use them to spell out 'Kurgman'
Posted by: fluffy at August 26, 2011 02:57 PM (3SvjA)
Posted by: jewells45, tea party terrorist at August 26, 2011 02:59 PM (Z71Vg)
Posted by: fluffy at August 26, 2011 02:59 PM (3SvjA)
Did you hear this?
The "unexpected" rise in new unemployment claims was blamed on Verizon strikers.
They were on strike for two weeks. YOU CANNOT COLLECT UNEMFUCKINGPLOYMENT if you go on strike. (Some states allow claims to filed after, say, seven or eight weeks.)
Posted by: soothie at August 26, 2011 03:01 PM (oa3OW)
Libs don't understand that we broke other people's shit in WWII.
Besides, most of the benefits of war (and there are many) are due to the technological advances that are almost always necessary for the winning side to win, and which then sets that side up to be ahead in the post-war scrum.
Posted by: progressoverpeace at August 26, 2011 03:01 PM (F5tJy)
as far as broken windows theory, why do you think they have all the thugs on speed dial?
Posted by: willow at August 26, 2011 03:02 PM (h+qn8)
Those flashlights will come in handy for the EPA caused brownouts though
Posted by: HANNITY!!! at August 26, 2011 03:02 PM (Y+DPZ)
Posted by: steevy at August 26, 2011 03:03 PM (pV6cO)
Posted by: Methos at August 26, 2011 03:03 PM (sOXQX)
It's just wealth redistribution, really. Wealth is destroyed, so workers must be paid to replace it. That is, effectively, a redistribution of the destroyed wealth to the workers. Libs love this shit ... and not for "the jobs". Ask a lib how much labor will be necessary to rebuild Barky's borther's cardboard box if a gust of wind took it down. It's the fancy houses they want to see destroyed - the wealth. Only then will money be put towards its repair and replacement, thus payment to the workers.
Posted by: progressoverpeace at August 26, 2011 03:03 PM (F5tJy)
Posted by: willow at August 26, 2011 03:03 PM (h+qn8)
Posted by: AoSHQ Stylebook at August 26, 2011 06:57 PM (GTbGH)
I nominate that this should be included at least once in all posts that ace does that includes Krugman. Can I get a second?
Posted by: buzzion at August 26, 2011 03:04 PM (GULKT)
Posted by: Paul Krugman at August 26, 2011 03:04 PM (usXZy)
Posted by: MCPO-retired at August 26, 2011 03:05 PM (7VXM9)
Here's to hoping you're right.
Posted by: Methos at August 26, 2011 03:05 PM (sOXQX)
If the "broken windows" folly was correct, we'd be cheering on non-lethal terrorist attacks because all that property damage would be overall stimulative.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at August 26, 2011 03:05 PM (c0A3e)
Then shut up!
Please tell me I don't need a sarc tag.
Posted by: eastvalleyphx at August 26, 2011 03:06 PM (qiOph)
Eh, I'll just print more money. And you can borrow it at a fiar interest rate I determine. It's win all around.
Posted by: Helicopter Ben at August 26, 2011 03:06 PM (sOXQX)
Are you kidding? The unions have a hold on New York unparalleled in this galaxy. You can't fart there without some union giving you permission. It'll take forever and wads of union paperwork for glazing between 10-2 M-Th with 11-1 off for lunch in a OSHA approved office.
Posted by: dagny at August 26, 2011 03:07 PM (PSypz)
Some enterprising moron with photoshop skills needs to go to work on the Go Gos Vacation album artwork.
Posted by: mpurinTexas, Evil
Conservanatrix, supports Rick Perry, bitch at August 26, 2011 12:40 PM (ignDe)
Posted by: Foole In The Rain at August 26, 2011 03:09 PM (BkQvr)
Posted by: kbdabear at August 26, 2011 03:10 PM (Y+DPZ)
Posted by: M. Murcek at August 26, 2011 03:10 PM (ToZXn)
I don't want to be anywhere near NYC over the next couple of days. I remember the year all the windows in the Houston skyscrapers were blown out, and it was a mess.
I wish the recurve on Irene was lots bigger than it is.
Posted by: Meiczyslaw at August 26, 2011 03:12 PM (bjRNS)
Posted by: Racefan at August 26, 2011 03:14 PM (l13kH)
Disasters are only good if they happen to Americans. Duh.
Posted by: Barry the Magnificent at August 26, 2011 03:16 PM (sOXQX)
Here's to hoping you're right.
Posted by: Methos at August 26, 2011 07:05 PM
Here's the latest satellite pic. That clear band in there is dry air that got sucked in. Think of a propeller that snagged a cable
Posted by: kbdabear at August 26, 2011 03:17 PM (Y+DPZ)
Posted by: Barack Hussein Obama at August 26, 2011 03:18 PM (37UjA)
Posted by: kbdabear at August 26, 2011 07:10 PM (Y+DPZ)
Earthquakes ARE good...it's tsunamis that suck, silly!
Posted by: SCOAMF at August 26, 2011 03:18 PM (X6akg)
Posted by: Foole In The Rain
Going to put a crimp in 80s Fapping Night.
Posted by: Waterhouse at August 26, 2011 03:20 PM (rmYSW)
Posted by: Barack Hussein Obama at August 26, 2011 07:18 PM (37UjA)
Sheryl Crow is using your transcripts.
One sheet at a time.
Posted by: Tesla at August 26, 2011 03:21 PM (DPU1J)
No shit. Given the level of taxation here, and the average teacher salary, I am wondering how I ended up responsible for "Everything at Staples"- 1 each.
No I'm not really wondering. I know.
Posted by: A Balrog of Morgoth at August 26, 2011 03:21 PM (9CM5J)
Posted by: Ray Nagin at August 26, 2011 03:21 PM (WCm02)
Posted by: Waterhouse at August 26, 2011 07:20 PM (rmYSW)
She was fat in the 80s, wasn't she? It was after the Go-Go's that she got mega-hot, seemingly out of nowhere. From my recollection, at least.
Posted by: progressoverpeace at August 26, 2011 03:22 PM (F5tJy)
5.9? I sleep through that.
Though, seriously: NYC is dry because the city constantly pumps the water out of it. If they didn't, big chunks of it would be underwater naturally.
So an evacuation sounds reasonable to me, and the map looks like somebody knows what they're doing. (Hopefully, it's more than "looks like", and more "is".)
Posted by: Meiczyslaw at August 26, 2011 03:23 PM (bjRNS)
What's left of the Mafia will be kicking themselves in the ass if they don't get another $2 tax for every installed window scam going.
Posted by: A Balrog of Morgoth at August 26, 2011 03:25 PM (9CM5J)
Buzz, count me in too, although we haven't quite yet finished the current meme yet.
I was told there would be no multitasking on this blog.
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at August 26, 2011 03:26 PM (d0Tfm)
Last week our alternator went out and we got raked over the coals by our dealership. Goodbye new mattress we were planning to buy, hello...same crappy car we already had.
Posted by: Lauren at August 26, 2011 03:28 PM (Z4ldN)
Posted by: William at August 26, 2011 03:29 PM (77TeU)
Posted by: Waterhouse at August 26, 2011 07:20 PM
She
was fat in the 80s, wasn't she? It was after the Go-Go's that she got
mega-hot, seemingly out of nowhere. From my recollection, at least.
A funny Geico commercial involving 80s music
Posted by: kbdabear at August 26, 2011 03:30 PM (Y+DPZ)
Posted by: Carl the groundskeeper at August 26, 2011 03:30 PM (N2yhW)
Posted by: Carl the groundskeeper at August 26, 2011 07:30 PM (N2yhW)
You win the internets.
Posted by: sifty, Tearorist Steeped in LiberTea at August 26, 2011 03:31 PM (4CSeG)
The original Bastiat diagnosis of broken-window thinking ("The Seen and the Unseen" is a common translation of the title) doesn't posit that it's wayward cleverness or something, but that economic not-seeing is infantile or pre-rational—or, in the case of fuck-up-the-peasants-to-pay-the-ministers-and-their-servants type stuff (like Krugman and Yglesias advocate), merely interested.
That seems more right than "clever." I mean, does anyone but a really stupid baby believe that dumb shit? I don't think so. They just say it.
Posted by: oblig. at August 26, 2011 03:31 PM (xvZW9)
Posted by: The Poster Formerly Known as Mr. Barky at August 26, 2011 03:31 PM (qwK3S)
Posted by: Unexpectedly at August 26, 2011 03:32 PM (14jKX)
Plus, there are millions and millions of people here who haven't been taking this thing seriously. QED Flooding= Dead people
Posted by: A Balrog of Morgoth at August 26, 2011 03:33 PM (9CM5J)
Posted by: quilly mammoth at August 26, 2011 03:33 PM (AWahI)
If he doesn't give permission, you can break in and take it. Not only does he have to replace it, but he has to hire someone to fix the door or window you broke.
Oh, and it creates business for the lawyer you have to hire
Posted by: kbdabear at August 26, 2011 03:34 PM (Y+DPZ)
lol, excellent!
You know, when my stepfather started using that phrase for any kind of falling precipitation, I hadn't a clue for years where that phrase came from - I thought he made it up himself. Then I watched Caddyshack all the way through...
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at August 26, 2011 03:34 PM (c0A3e)
Posted by: MCPO-retired at August 26, 2011 07:05 PM (7VXM9)
There's a joke in there about cat ladies and giant purple saguaros resting on nightstands, but decorum prevents saying it here.
Posted by: Douglas C. Niedermeyer at August 26, 2011 03:34 PM (4q5tP)
Posted by: Unexpectedly at August 26, 2011 03:34 PM (14jKX)
Yes I do. Highest honors. Do you have an enormous ass? Never mind, I can see for myself.
Posted by: Mo Brooks at August 26, 2011 03:35 PM (6TB1Z)
Posted by: sifty, Tearorist Steeped in LiberTea at August 26, 2011 03:36 PM (4CSeG)
Oh, and it creates business for the lawyer you have to hire
Well I'm just sayin. If you want to swallow that level of stupidity, we should be granting arsonists pardons.
Posted by: MikeTheMoose Camellia Sinensis Operative at August 26, 2011 03:36 PM (0q2P7)
That's nice, but it's not the winds that are the big threat, at least here in the center of the known universe and only place that matters, it's the storm surge.
So true.
Handy little phrase from Katrina, Rita, and Ike: Run from the water, Hide from the wind.
Posted by: Count de Monet at August 26, 2011 03:36 PM (4q5tP)
We used to call it "broke as fuck, how we gonna eat?".
Posted by: sifty, Tearorist Steeped in LiberTea at August 26, 2011 03:37 PM (4CSeG)
Leftists are so goddamned stupid. It infuriates me that low IQ cretin like Krugman gets to draw a handsome paycheck for spilling all his ridiculous, child-like assertions onto the pages of a newspaper.
Their argument is so easy to debunk it's almost embarrassing to see ace do it. Why? Because it's beneath him. Even an 8 yr old can get his head around the FACT that destroying wealth does not create more wealth.
This is the same twisted thinking that spawned the Cash for Clunkers debacle. Hey, let's destroy perfectly good used cars! You know, the kind that people on the lower end of the economic scale NEED to get to work!
3 years later and the price of used cars is still artificially elevated. All we did was waste the labor and materials that went into those cars. Call me simple, but being wasteful never occurred to me as a good way to build wealth.
Posted by: Warden at August 26, 2011 03:38 PM (3IerR)
Posted by: SFGoth at August 26, 2011 03:38 PM (dZ756)
Posted by: Barky O'Bumbles at August 26, 2011 03:38 PM (6Cjut)
Posted by: Unexpectedly at August 26, 2011 03:39 PM (14jKX)
Posted by: Tsar Nicholas II at August 26, 2011 03:40 PM (f8XyF)
@29: "I don't know about anywhere else, but "D" batteries are not to be found in my part of Virginia."
*shift eyes nervously while writhing and sweating profusely*
Posted by: Justices Kagan and Sotomajor, over a muffled buzzing at August 26, 2011 03:41 PM (xy9wk)
Posted by: Unexpectedly at August 26, 2011 03:42 PM (14jKX)
There is no need for panic. My Canadian bus has Club is a full tank and my clubs are bus is already loaded.
Posted by: Barky O'Bumbles at August 26, 2011 07:38 PM (6Cjut)
Corrected by the Syntax Correction Police
Posted by: The Syntax Correction Police at August 26, 2011 03:44 PM (iWc/3)
Posted by: JPS at August 26, 2011 03:44 PM (wS6Sf)
Posted by: dagny at August 26, 2011 03:45 PM (PSypz)
It astonishes me that anyone could be dumb enough to believe that vandalism, disasters etc. are a net stimulus to the economy.
Atlantis should be booming any day now. Or Sodom and Gomorrah.
Posted by: dagny at August 26, 2011 03:46 PM (PSypz)
Posted by: Dean Wormer at August 26, 2011 03:47 PM (VxqUc)
Posted by: sifty, 1st Earl Grey Martyrs Brigade at August 26, 2011 03:47 PM (4CSeG)
Believing that vandalism, disasters, etc., stimulate the economy is a methodof pre- and post-act justification of Leftist vandalism.
Remember, Paul Krugman is a former Enron Financial Adviser.
Posted by: Arbalest at August 26, 2011 03:48 PM (iWc/3)
Why, are they worried about the impending storm?
Posted by: David Souter at August 26, 2011 03:48 PM (6TB1Z)
I don't want to be anywhere near NYC over the next couple of days. I remember the year all the windows in the Houston skyscrapers were blown out, and it was a mess.
Hurricane Alicia, August 18, 1983. Downtown window breakage mostly due to the loose gravel covering the roof of the building (Tenneco Building) I worked in at the time. Seems the loose gravel was not, in fact, impervious to sustained high winds.
Posted by: Count de Monet at August 26, 2011 03:49 PM (4q5tP)
Posted by: Ma Bell at August 26, 2011 03:51 PM (H/MnC)
Even an 8 yr old can get his head around the FACT that destroying wealth does not create more wealth.
We've pretty much established that some 52% of the voting populace is just about as smart as an 8-year-old.
And never forget that ad with Glen Close and her unfortunate sister with a mental disease: one in six Americans have some sort of problem processing information correctly. Although that number may be inflated to increase the emotional impact, I don't doubt it that much.
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at August 26, 2011 03:52 PM (d0Tfm)
I realize most of these urban hipster fucks have never gone through a hurricane-or anything else, other than college and a writing gig for some progressive think tank, but every day the power remains off and potable water remains unavailable just adds to the legion of people who really really do not like the stumbling clusterfuck of a miserable failure.
They should be beseeching their beloved Gaea to make sure Irene misses NYC and just slaps around those Republicans out on Long Island.
Fools
Posted by: A Balrog of Morgoth at August 26, 2011 03:54 PM (9CM5J)
Keep your powder dry and your loved ones close and safe.
Posted by: sifty, 1st Earl Grey Martyrs Brigade at August 26, 2011 03:56 PM (4CSeG)
Posted by: dananjcon at August 26, 2011 03:58 PM (FzVlt)
AJ Burnett is next in line for the SCoaMF crown.
Fuck AJ. They need to send him down to double a.
Posted by: garrett at August 26, 2011 04:01 PM (37UjA)
Posted by: Uncle Jed at August 26, 2011 04:08 PM (kBWjM)
Posted by: Merovign, Dark Lord of the Sith at August 26, 2011 04:18 PM (bxiXv)
This animates (partly) the idea that WWII was what got us out of the Depression.
Which is really not true either. All that WWII did was to mask the effects of unemployment by reducing the size of the labor pool for a while. Oh, and it also provided a situation in which FDR found some private industries he didn't want to bully out of existence. Then the old buzzard kicked off and we got Truman who—though not particularly well-educated economically—at least wasn't a dilettante with smug animosity toward the concept of a private sector economy.
Posted by: rfichoke at August 26, 2011 04:24 PM (SYhX2)
Posted by: Merovign, Dark Lord of the Sith at August 26, 2011 04:30 PM (bxiXv)
Britain went broke sending us gold and cash. Finally trading us land for guns.
And then, post war, if someone in the world wanted to buy a factory made product, that intact and in many cases brand new factory was in the US for a number of years.
Posted by: RS at August 26, 2011 04:47 PM (/LMxe)
I want to suggest there is one situation where Krugman-esque logic works.
Suppose that under ordinary circumstances in Krugman's socialist paradise, a worker is a minority partner in his own work. Suppose there is a cumulative tax rate of 70% and most or all of that money disappears into the hands of groups the taxpayer is not a part of. Under such circumstances the person is unlikely to put much enthusiasm into his work. Make it 100%. At some point it makes no sense to work at all, unless the only way to eat is for the state to feed to you and the only way to be eligible is to work. But your productivity is going to be damn low. Similarly, I'm not going to invent anything new unless I reap the benefits of the effort.
Suppose, though, that the country becomes involved in a prolonged existential war. Imagine you are a Russian in late 1941. The communist system had been busy starving itself after squandering its initial windfall. But suddenly you have the 'Great Patriotic War' and every Russian pitches in with their best possible effort because they all know perfectly well what is happening to the unfortunates that are caught on the wrong side of the front. I'll work, and work well, because now I'm receiving the benefit of survival. Further, I won't tolerate the presence of slackers if something as basic as my own surival is at stake.
Krugman (and others) could be right if there are situations where the majority of people will voluntarily up their productivity, and the pace of technological advance, over a sustained period of time. I suppose, though, that the supposed productivity/technology upgrade would have to be large enough to overcome the disaster that is presupposed by the "broken windows" scenario.
Posted by: crazy christian at August 26, 2011 05:22 PM (3LCn3)
Posted by: Darth Randall at August 26, 2011 05:31 PM (98AOY)
Posted by: Bill D. Cat at August 26, 2011 05:40 PM (npr0X)
I realize the Krugman piece was fake, but commenters who agreed with the premise weren't, they thought it was brilliant. Good reading if you like laughing at mindless liberals (birm).
Posted by: 29Victor at August 26, 2011 05:43 PM (ES9R7)
Posted by: Merciless AudioBook at August 26, 2011 05:49 PM (VRgDg)
Stupid shitheads.
Posted by: mr.frakypants at August 26, 2011 07:50 PM (pffBj)
Posted by: DTIH at August 27, 2011 08:52 AM (UmGio)
Posted by: Rbastid at August 27, 2011 10:32 PM (/Y0/4)
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Posted by: toby928™ at August 26, 2011 02:51 PM (GTbGH)