March 23, 2011
— Monty I often (like, all the time) hear people tell me that I'm being overly alarmist about our national debt and entitlement crisis, that we have time to implement more moderate measures to solve the problem. My response is usually, "What time, exactly, do you think we have?"
Congressman Paul Ryan's "Roadmap for America's Future" -- the most serious and "politically-feasible" (I really hate that term) plan -- takes several decades simply to get us back to where we were a few years ago, debt-wise. Harry Reid speaks blithely of waiting twenty years to even begin thinking of reforming Social Security.
We don't have twenty years to dick around. We may not even have ten. We may not even have five.
The few politicians who actually are thinking of the problem still assume that we have decades to slow-roll the changes. I don't think we have that much time. Nor do a lot of other people. Why? Debt. Specifically, the costs to service our debt.
Here's a pull quote:
[T]his scenario is likely to prove optimistic. For the five years ending 2007, consumer price inflation averaged 3.2%. Inflation appears on a path to exceed 5% annually (see “Higher Inflation is on the Way“). Sustained inflation of 5% would imply interest rates of 7%. At those rates, federal net interest payments would exceed $1 trillion a year.That’s more than the federal government will this year spend on Defense ($768 billion), Medicare ($494 billion), Social Security ($748 billion) or all other non-defense, non entitlement programs combined. The $800 billion additional annual spending will also more than offset efforts by the bi-partisan “Gang of Six” to craft a deal to cut the budget deficit by $4 trillion over the next 10 years.
Our whole "plan" (to the extent that our government even has a plan for getting us out of this mess) is founded on the belief that our borrowing costs will remain low -- that the interest-rate environment will remain at or near zero indefinitely. Well, it won't, and I don't think enough people are thinking about what a huge dent interest-payments on the debt is going to put into our budget. Our entire federal budget will be eaten up with four things: Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and debt-service payments. That means any additional spending (like, oh, say, the military) will have to come from borrowed money...which will have to be borrowed at higher rates, which in turn causes debt-service costs to rise yet again. This is the vicious debt-spiral many European countries now find themselves in.
What has basically happened during the past forty or fifty years is that we've spent most of our actual capital -- mainly on our vast welfare state and government apparatus, but also on our huge military. We are like a couple who lives paycheck-to-paycheck: any money that comes in goes right back out. Nothing gets tucked away. An unexpected expense -- a busted water-heater, broken-down car, or an unexpected illness or injury -- all of a sudden puts you in a hell of a financial hurt. So you borrow. You can't really afford even the payment much less the whole loan, but what can you do? You may even cast caution to the winds and buy that jet-ski you've had your eye on (on credit, of course). Why not? You're already screwed; being screwed a little bit more hardly matters at this point, right? Then something else breaks and you have to borrow again (if you can), and the monthly bills start to pinch you where you live -- it's either service your debt or pay the rent, because you can't do both. At that point, the spinning plates will come crashing down -- you will either default on your debt to avoid starving your family into oblivion, or you will force your family to live like animals in a cave so you can pay off the debt you ran up.
So the frustrated call goes up: "Okay, we're boned! I get it! But what can we do about it?" Answer: I don't know. Maybe nothing, at this point.
There are too few people who understand the gravity of the problem, and too many people who depend on a government check. The only real solution would require a combination of deep cuts to entitlement programs, a vast downsizing of our federal and state governments (and thus their spending), and a dedicated years-long effort to pay off our debt. But these solutions are waved off as "politically unfeasible", which is tantamount to simply admitting that the problem cannot be solved at all.
I've often said that circumstances will impose a solution on us if we don't find one ourselves -- we simply cannot continue as we are. And the reckoning is not comfortably far off in the future; it's unfolding right now, before our very eyes.
Bummer cat says, "Way to kill my buzz, Captain Bringdown".
Posted by: Monty at
05:26 AM
| Comments (157)
Post contains 844 words, total size 5 kb.
Posted by: kelley in virginia at March 23, 2011 05:32 AM (OTOGg)
Posted by: WINNING! at March 23, 2011 05:33 AM (NKSOm)
Answer: Invest in Alcohol, brass, lead and nitrates
Posted by: Buzzsaw at March 23, 2011 05:34 AM (tf9Ne)
the problem is that too many people get a gubmint check. there is woman I know that had this to say: "the government better send me more money to cover the cost of food & gas since both are becoming more expensive".
These people worry me. They are already unstable, as I define it. They can't take care of themselves.
I have a feeling they will get violent when the cuts, forced by the markets or otherwise.
Posted by: Ben at March 23, 2011 05:35 AM (wuv1c)
Posted by: BlackOrchid at March 23, 2011 05:36 AM (SB0V2)
Posted by: phoenixgirl at March 23, 2011 05:37 AM (eOXTH)
Posted by: blaster at March 23, 2011 05:37 AM (Fw2Gg)
It won't be chaos, but war. I'm thinking we will most likely invade Central and South America. In fact, Teh One my be setting the infrastructure in place now in Brazil to be our new south slope oil patch.
Quetsion of the day
If we press one for English and two for Spanish, do we press three for Portuguese?
Posted by: dr kill at March 23, 2011 05:37 AM (le5qc)
Posted by: polynikes at March 23, 2011 05:37 AM (yKP4s)
I think we had our chance last November. Elect such a mass of 'rightwing radicals' as to shock the rest of the DC regulars into compliance. We didn't do it, and now, barring a miracle, it's too late.
So what the heck do we do to individually manage the collapse of the dollar (one must assume based on current practice, the DC aliens will just keep printing until their books balance, whatever the consequences to the rest of us)-particularly if we weren't in a position to save under the old paradigm (due to age, lack of opportunity, etc)?
Posted by: Methos at March 23, 2011 05:37 AM (uqJo6)
Posted by: kelley in virginia at March 23, 2011 05:37 AM (OTOGg)
Posted by: Emperor of Icecream at March 23, 2011 05:39 AM (epBek)
@ blackorchid
Yeah, get ready for the mooching. There is a large segment of our population who won't be able to fend for themselves when the cuts happen. They'll just go looking for another teet to suck dry.
@phoenixgirl.
Yeah, that's another concern. If people can't get the drugs they need they will without question welcome a nationalization of or healthcare industry and pharma companies.
Posted by: Ben at March 23, 2011 05:39 AM (wuv1c)
About 2,200 Marines from the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit, or 26th MEU will take part. Their mission is to help end the violence directed at the Libyan people.
"In Libya right now they are doing exactly what we need them to do. They are doing what they are told and right now that's protecting Libyan people against Qadhafi forces," said Captain Timothy Patrick, a marine with the 26th MEU.
A press release from the 26th MEU reads, in part:"Protecting the innocent and conducting combined operations are what we are designed to do, our forces are doing both as part of the U.S commitment to protect Libyan citizens."
I thought we were specifically told that deployments like this weren't part of the deal.
Posted by: What in the name of Tom Landry is going on here? at March 23, 2011 05:40 AM (8/DeP)
Posted by: Typical Moron at March 23, 2011 05:42 AM (SNs7J)
Posted by: Monty at March 23, 2011 05:42 AM (4Pleu)
Posted by: phoenixgirl at March 23, 2011 05:42 AM (eOXTH)
"why stop half-way to Armageddon?"
Posted by: sven10077 at March 23, 2011 05:42 AM (kq1lG)
Posted by: Purple Avenger at March 23, 2011 05:43 AM (tFo+G)
Posted by: phoenixgirl at March 23, 2011 05:44 AM (eOXTH)
Someone take his co-blog login ID away!
Posted by: EC at March 23, 2011 05:44 AM (GQ8sn)
*or the domestic ones for that matter?
Posted by: ef at March 23, 2011 05:45 AM (c7Pp2)
Maybe that's how he's going to get around the "no new taxes" pledge, just letting inflation force the entire middle class onto the AMT
Posted by: Ben at March 23, 2011 05:45 AM (wuv1c)
Posted by: blaster at March 23, 2011 05:46 AM (Fw2Gg)
This just came thru my chain mail. Thought some morons might like it. Little sappy but accurate.
Posted by: sTevo at March 23, 2011 05:46 AM (+QKEk)
*or the domestic ones for that matter?
Posted by: ef at March 23, 2011 09:45 AM (c7Pp2)
I want to see what happens when the boy king tells China that they get ten cents on the dollar for their bonds, and the SEIU gets an ownership stake in their US real estate holdings.
Posted by: Vashta Nerada at March 23, 2011 05:47 AM (SNs7J)
Well, Monty has a better clue than most - on the left or the right.
"The Fourth Turning" by Strauss and Howe.
"The Rise and Fall of Civilizations" by Miller, Joubert and Butler.
Samuel J "Bud" Kress and Kress Cycles.
Kondratieff Winter
See also: "A Reader's Resoures on Systemic Collapse."
We've failed to confront the inevitable for too long. At this point, it is no longer a question of outcomes. It's just a matter of how bad it'll be when the collapse begins.
A national disaster - on the same scale as what has hapopened in Japan - might finish us off, too.
As Monty has pointed out, it isn't just America. It's obvious that these events are unfolding all over the world.
Posted by: Warren Bonesteel at March 23, 2011 05:49 AM (E7Z1r)
I think we can tip the cow over
Posted by: sven10077 at March 23, 2011 05:51 AM (kq1lG)
The problem isn't that too many people get a government check. The problem is that they are allowed to vote themselves that government check.
Alexis de Tocqueville said it way back around 1831. When the masses learn that they can vote themselves largess from from the public coffers the country will fail. (often inappropriately attributed to Tytler).
Some 70 years later we began to give the vote to everyone in the "masses" and soon we began to fail. We are there now and it is really too late to do anything about it now even if it were possible. The needed cure would cause the cities to erupt as they will when the actual cure comes around with the collapse.
Monty would spend his time more wisely preaching about how to survive the coming "Mel Gibson movie" in America rather than preaching about how we need to fix our communist government.
Posted by: Vic at March 23, 2011 05:51 AM (M9Ie6)
The U.S. debt situation is at a "tipping point," Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher said on Tuesday, and urged the U.S. central bank to refrain from any further stimulus measures. "If we continue down on the path on which the fiscal authorities put us, we will become insolvent. The question is when," Fisher said in a speech at the University of FrankfurtÂ…
"The Fed has done enough, if not too much, and we should do no more… In my opinion no further accommodation is necessary after June either by tapering off the bottom of treasuries or by adding another tranche of purchases outright.” "We are seeing speculative activity that may be exacerbating (price rises in) key commodities such as oil."
Insolvent shmalvent. We'll just print more money!
Posted by: TheQuietMan at March 23, 2011 05:51 AM (1Jaio)
exactly....
I suspect the Fed will keep our rates prohibitively low for investment and the problem will be more painful
Posted by: sven10077 at March 23, 2011 05:51 AM (kq1lG)
We're a quarter quadrillion dollars upside down - all federal debt plus unfunded liabilities, they being the costs of socialism, plus all similar debts owed by the states. This is an unpayable sum. It will never, ever be paid.
This is because we have a dollar inflated by policy to the point that it's worth four cents. Because the most powerful people in the nation and the world are not governments but bankers. Because money is not wealth, it is debt.
Money is debt. If all debts were paid today, money would disappear. Except debts cannot be paid because the interest remains outstanding. Let that sink in: Fiat money and fractional reserve banking incur enormous interest debt that cannot itself be paid because there isn't enough money to do so. This is what happens with money made from debt in a single, managed, interest-bearing system. It is inevitable.
What's left? Exactly what should be left, that is if you're an advocate of Cloward-Piven economics: The whole thing falls down - it cannot but fall down - and we move to Obarky's bestest wet dream: Global currency. I.e., Soros-government or whatever you want to call it.
Even the Fed itself warns about insolvency.
And they say Monty is a pessimist. Monty is an all too nice a guy. Morons like this are doomed to repeat history. The problem is we're all morons.
A debt-based monetary system has a lifespan-limiting Achilles heel: as debt is created through loan origination, an obligation above and beyond this sum is also created in the form of interest. As a result, there can never be enough money to repay principal and pay interest unless debt is continually expanded. Debt-based monetary systems do not work in reverse, nor can they stand still without a liquidity buffer in the form of savings or a current account surplus.
The US is now in a fundamentally different position than it was in 1930 or Japan was in 1990. Aside from a dearth of domestic savings, its vulnerability is compounded by a current account deficit. There is no buffer and no margin for error. Thus, when interest charges, now $2 trillion per year and accelerating, overtake annual debt growth, now $3 trillion and decelerating, liquidation will immediately trigger cascading cross-defaults. Without domestic savings to mobilize, the Fed cannot facilitate the expansion of government debt to fill the breach and simultaneously hold down interest rates. It cannot win the battle to keep debt growth greater than interest charges, the precondition for the viability of a debt-based monetary system. Once started, cascading cross-defaults consume all debt within an economy. The Fed has only two options: institute a new monetary system with a new currency or return monetary authority to the market and shut down.
Steven LaChance, from over five years ago.
Posted by: Ten at March 23, 2011 05:52 AM (Xxvfv)
BTW, did you notice Irish debt blowing sky-high this morning? If Ireland goes Iceland (basically flips the finger to the bankers and defaults) then this whole house of cards could come down pretty quickly.
And if not the Irish, then the Portuguese, or the Spanish, or the Italians. It really is only a matter of time, really.
Posted by: DocJ at March 23, 2011 05:52 AM (dt6br)
In ten years the national debt will equal, at minimum, $25,000,000,000,000. What's 9% of $25 trillion? DOOOOM!!!!! It is the total value of all federal government tax receipts for the year.
Posted by: Cooter at March 23, 2011 05:54 AM (wA3/3)
Posted by: mastour at March 23, 2011 05:54 AM (kTTiP)
I'm still fuming over the Beck show yesterday that had that asshole Lerner from SEUI openly discussing economic terrorism. I'm getting to the point where I wouldn't really care what happened to that guy, IYKWIM, should some foul fate befall him.
We're really doomed when idiots like that have access to the White House and while The Vapid One® is in bed with them.
Confidence is not high...
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at March 23, 2011 05:55 AM (d0Tfm)
Posted by: Monty at March 23, 2011 05:56 AM (4Pleu)
Instead of going on TV and speaking to the American people, Obama fucking gives an interview to CNN
Obama said in an interview on Tuesday. But the US president said he hoped military action would create enough space for rebels to "create a legitimate government".
Speaking to CNN during his trip to South America, Obama said he hoped the military intervention would help the Libyan opposition start organising for change. He said it might not be "military might" but a belief among the Libyan people that it is time for a change that ends with "ultimately sweeping Gaddafi out of power".
Posted by: momma at March 23, 2011 05:56 AM (penCf)
I guess its time to start buying enough food to last me a year
Posted by: Ben at March 23, 2011 05:58 AM (wuv1c)
See? I have an actual plan for success, not like these retards running our government right now.
What do you mean you have a plan!!!!???
That IS our government right now.
Posted by: Vic at March 23, 2011 05:59 AM (M9Ie6)
You obviously missed the revelation that was shown to us in Thunderdome.
The answer to survival is pig poop and weekly cage matches, but mostly the weekly cage matches.
Posted by: Buzzsaw at March 23, 2011 06:00 AM (tf9Ne)
Posted by: sven10077 at March 23, 2011 06:00 AM (kq1lG)
Posted by: sven10077 at March 23, 2011 06:01 AM (kq1lG)
Posted by: Monty at March 23, 2011 06:01 AM (4Pleu)
Remarkable, isn't it, that we have come to accept the construct that makes any one player in this whole sordid mess a lynchpin. By way of fiat money and fractional reserve banking the world has leveraged itself over an abyss. And Washington and an entire Ministry of Truth establishment go blindly on, feeding us rhetoric like it's baby food.
We are fools.
Posted by: Ten at March 23, 2011 06:01 AM (Xxvfv)
America was founded based on the notion that people don't have to live on an auto-pilot dictated by the elite. We've lost that, but it's still very possible to regain it. Have hope, man.
Posted by: William at March 23, 2011 06:02 AM (+zM6M)
Posted by: blaster at March 23, 2011 06:02 AM (Fw2Gg)
There isn't enough money in the EU to bail out Spain if/when it goes. And I think the German patience for these bailouts (which were supposed to be prohibited by law, remember) is about at an end.
Give it back to the Moors
Posted by: Ben at March 23, 2011 06:02 AM (wuv1c)
The real problem is unemployment through out- and in-sourcing, and anemic economic growth. It erodes the tax base, which requires higher taxes, which stifles economic growth, which causes unemployment. Vicious cycle of doom.
On the upside, that silver dollar you've been hoarding will be worth $40,000.
Posted by: Cooter at March 23, 2011 06:05 AM (wA3/3)
______
Ah. Thus the DOOM! posts. Monty is working on building a toady constituency while the building is good.
Posted by: Anachronda at March 23, 2011 06:05 AM (6fER6)
You can buy plastic and glass containers specifically slated to use for storing water long-term. The containers will come with instructions to properly clean them as well. And you can always collect rain water in a pinch.
You can also use bleach to chemically disinfect water. I think the ratio is one teaspoon disinfects 5 gallons of water...the point is that you don't need very much bleach, so you should try to store up a small supply of that.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at March 23, 2011 06:05 AM (9hSKh)
If something does happen, and you have to get the hell out of dodge, how are you going to take your food (unless it is freeze-dried)? (MREs)
How are you going to transport your water?
what about gas?
See, if shit hits the fan, unless you have property somewhere 'out there', we are pretty screwed aren't we? I mean the riots, crime, etc. will consume every area where houses are closer together. Right?
Posted by: momma at March 23, 2011 06:06 AM (penCf)
Posted by: Cooter at March 23, 2011 06:06 AM (wA3/3)
We agree, completely. But my guess is that Ireland, then Greece, then Portugal will go - probably by summer - and by then it won't matter that Spain will go immediately after that because the rout will already be well underway.
Posted by: DocJ at March 23, 2011 06:07 AM (dt6br)
Posted by: Monty at March 23, 2011 06:07 AM (4Pleu)
Posted by: Alex at March 23, 2011 06:08 AM (kwNeL)
Posted by: Screwed in San Antonio (not Dave!) at March 23, 2011 06:09 AM (uE+Je)
We are fools.
Posted by: Ten at March 23, 2011 10:01 AM (Xxvfv)
Don't blame fractional banking for events that have been wholly caused by governmental overspending on bread and circuses.
Posted by: Vashta Nerada at March 23, 2011 06:10 AM (SNs7J)
Posted by: SurferDoc at March 23, 2011 06:10 AM (o3bYL)
Give it back to the Moors
Posted by: Ben at March 23, 2011 10:02 AM (wuv1c)
Uh sorry....it's Moops.
Posted by: George Costanza at March 23, 2011 06:10 AM (VuLos)
You laugh, but I think that's exactly what's going to happen. Go to Al Andalus in 2080 (because it won't be called "Spain" anymore). Curches will be converted to mosques, minarets will rise rather than church-steeples, and the tiny childless (and penniless) cohort of native Spaniards will blame America for the whole thing. The French may set up a military DMZ along the border to keep the disaster contained.
What makes you think France won't be majority muslim by 2080?
Posted by: Ben at March 23, 2011 06:12 AM (wuv1c)
But while they still get interest payments from us for financial our debt, they are using the income to build up their military. So when China eventually retakes Taiwan, the invasion will have been subsidized by the American taxpayer.
Monty's analogy of a family's debt-spiral is apt, but the consequences of our own impeding financial calamity are far more reaching. When a family goes bust, the effects, while tragic, are relatively localized. When the US goes bust...
...there will be only chaos.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at March 23, 2011 06:12 AM (9hSKh)
I have been saying that anyone who lives within 50 miles of a city larger than 50K needs to leave for a long time. Grocery stores only carry a 3 day supply of food. It will only be a few days after that 3 days that the riots start. Shortly after that they will begin eating each other and moving to the suburbs.
For a glimpse of the upcoming "Mel Gibson Movie" read "Dies The Fire" by S. M. Stirling.
Posted by: Vic at March 23, 2011 06:12 AM (M9Ie6)
________
I know a fellow who used that problem as an excuse to buy a hot tub. I don't know the exact details, but the basic plan is that when the SHTF, he can put the lid on and use it as a water source for a while.
Posted by: Anachronda at March 23, 2011 06:14 AM (6fER6)
Yeah, when we're governed by a community organizer and his communist union lackeys who:
1. Have no comprehension of the concept of America as good or decent
and
2. View their fellow citizens with contempt instead of respect
and
3. Don't have the foggiest idea how a free market economy is designed to work and are actively working on plans to destroy the country
then I guess I will take that cup of doom. One lump or two?
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at March 23, 2011 06:14 AM (d0Tfm)
Posted by: Ben at March 23, 2011 09:59 AM (wuv1c)
Walmart has 7gal stackable plastic containers (without the BPA issues if important to you) that have removable/reversible spigots. Cheap.
Very handy for those of that have well water during power outs.
Posted by: ontherocks at March 23, 2011 06:15 AM (HBqDo)
It's not impossible to solve. It will be painful, and the problem is that most politicians knows it's a career ender to even try. Just look at Wisconsin the last few weeks, and tripple it when there's real cuts across the board. No politician will even try to attempt it unless they know they are secure in their position to do so. Either that they have huge support by the public or are in such a position that they will win elections anyway.
The recipie is basically the same as for a person that's deep in debt. There needs to be less spent, and more money made. Most politicians, especially leftwing, focus on the second half and try to raise taxes to "bring in more money". It never works, because it stops economic activity. If it costs more, people do less of it. If you have to pay more taxes to work, you work less and spend time doing other things, like finding more entitlements. (In Scandinavia, for most people it make more economic sense to spend 2 hours looking for entitlements they can get than it does working 2 hours overtime)
So the important part is to cut spending. And I mean really cut spending. Anything that isn't absolutely necessary gets cut. Things that are absolutely necessary gets cut to the bare minimum of functionality.
Then drastic tax cuts on work and any other economic activity that creates wealth, and stop to most regulation by different agencies. Let people get back to work and find ways to create wealth, and dont get in their ways. Tell them they have to pay for their own pension and healthcare, or make do with the bare minimum if the government pays.
Or sit back and wait until it's too late, and "the bank" in whatever form it will take makes the decisions for you.
Posted by: Erik at March 23, 2011 06:15 AM (0ojGE)
Depends on the need. Glass, while more fragile and heavier than plastic (making transport a pain), is less susceptible to having vapors or other liquids infiltrate your water. The leeching of chemicals and other junk into the water from the glass container is also insignificant. I'd use glass for long-term storage and plastic for the short-term storage and transport of water.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at March 23, 2011 06:16 AM (9hSKh)
Posted by: Monty
I think you make the mistake others do in thinking that the demographics will remain static in the face of great changes. The outcome is very hard to predict, though the likely reality lies anywhere other than in linear projection.
Posted by: s☺mej☼e at March 23, 2011 06:17 AM (WbnbO)
One Second After was pretty damn horrific too, and is a vivid harbinger of what might come. I had a few nightmares after I read that book.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at March 23, 2011 06:17 AM (9hSKh)
Was that your 401k, I didnt look like anyone was using it, sorry
The Fed has only two options: institute a new monetary system with a new currency or return monetary authority to the market and shut down.
Global currency regime to match the tax regime being worked out?
Posted by: Jean at March 23, 2011 06:18 AM (WkuV6)
To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities as announced in November. In particular, the Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings and intends to purchase $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Charles I. Plosser; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen.
Posted by: toby928™ at March 23, 2011 06:18 AM (GTbGH)
ANOTHER FRIENDLY WARNING. HOTAIR STILL HAS VIRUS ATTACKS WHEN YOU VISIT IT.
I'm officially done going to that site. It's one the most heavily trafficked conservative sites and corporately owned and yet they can't keep their site clean.
Posted by: Ben at March 23, 2011 06:18 AM (wuv1c)
Posted by: Monty at March 23, 2011 06:19 AM (4Pleu)
That cat has poor posture. Sit up straight! Stop slumping around, your gonna ruin your back!
/channeling Mom...
Posted by: maddogg at March 23, 2011 06:20 AM (OlN4e)
Rule of exponents folks. You learned it (or should have learned it) in 5th grade.
It is not fixable at this point.
It's merely a matter of when you get the result, and how it manifests itself. But your life IS going to change.
Posted by: TheSev at March 23, 2011 06:20 AM (eIXPw)
Kratos, is glass or plastic better?
I got this one. Plastic tends to absorb whatever moisture is in whatever it's in contact with. So a plastic container that's never held any other liquid would be fine, if you can guarantee that one thing. We always had to dry plasic before we could mold it. It's thirsty.
Glass is much better, as it's not permeable. Glazed ceramic also qualifies for the same reason.
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at March 23, 2011 06:20 AM (d0Tfm)
Posted by: Monty at March 23, 2011 06:21 AM (4Pleu)
Momma, there are proponents on both sides of the "bug out" debate. Some say if you're in a huge urban area, bugging out early and to a pre-prepared site is your best chance. Others state that in less populated, but still urban settings you're better off to bunker in place and work to build a neighborhood coalition.
Survival Blog by Rawles is a good resource, I'd recommend checking it out to any who are looking for prep info.
p.s., about water purification: liquid bleach has a shelf life. Google up getting granular calcium hypochlorite (pool shock) but get the facts about which additives to avoid and especially pay attention to storage procedure. And more guns are good, but more ammo is even better. But not as good as more rice and beans.
Posted by: Todd Bridges, first to go bad, last to go down at March 23, 2011 06:21 AM (qL20/)
Posted by: Lemon Kitten at March 23, 2011 06:22 AM (0fzsA)
Glass is much better, as it's not permeable. Glazed ceramic also qualifies for the same reason.
so glass jugs online are the best way to go
Posted by: Ben at March 23, 2011 06:23 AM (wuv1c)
No, it isn't. We know how many child Spaniards there are right now; that's how many adults there will be in 20 years. Any addition to that number will by definition have to come from outside.
Also, this doesn't taken into account immigration. Look at Ireland. Irish people are fleeing to Canada and other countries. Where do you think Europeans are going to go when the poop hits the fan?
Posted by: Ben at March 23, 2011 06:24 AM (wuv1c)
Posted by: Blue Falcon in Boston at March 23, 2011 06:25 AM (ijjAe)
Posted by: Ben at March 23, 2011 09:59 AM (wuv1c)
In the 5g containers Polar and Deer Park bring to your house, get 5 backed up and rotate. Then a case or two of 1 liter bottles. A WaterBob is good backup if you have time to fill it. Get a 1lb bag of pool shock for long term purification (be sure to download, print, and tape the directions on use to the bag). Add a solar shower (you can put hot water from a kettle into it) for hygenic purposes and your good (unless you live in Phoenix or Tuscon) - then your dry boned.
Posted by: Jean at March 23, 2011 06:26 AM (WkuV6)
In the near term, inflation fears are overblown. Part of the question here is what is causing the inflation we're suffering now. Inflation due to monetary policy is not the same as "price increases" resulting from supply and demand imbalances. Right now we have some specific circumstances driving up the cost of energy and housing, which are the only things showing much "inflation" at all. We have crop failures all over the world, and at the same time we have the 3rd worlders eating more as they become more prosperous. It's not just ethanol (indeed, I doubt ethanol has any real impact) cutting down on land for staples. It's growing appetites for animal flesh and the conversion of crop land to feed animals for meat. As for energy, we have growing expenses in terms of extracting oil. Our own domestic supplies have been slashed, due to the moratorium on the gulf drilling. Shale oil is great, but more costly to extract and refine. We have no nuclear development. Etc. No monetary policy changes can affect these facts.
Right now the circulating money supply has not been increasing by a significant amount. Yes - bank reserves are massively swollen, but they're sitting and doing nothing. They're not being loaned out. People are deleveraging and saving still - which also drains money out of the economy and saps consumption. Bankers can't find enterprises they consider worth loaning money to. Until that turns around those notional increases in the money supply mean nothing. And even as that cash is turned loose, how much will go to simply eat up the slack capacity we have? Labor resources alone are massively under-utilized. The only question is how to drain the excess once things get going again, if they ever do.
Yeah - we need to get spending under control. There are serious problems. But right now the situation is not so dire that we should all form end-of-the-world communes where we all grow our own food and spend the rest of our time building bunkers. And no - the Chinese are not going to invade to make us "pay" our "debts." They'll get their dollars; we can make as many as they want out of thin air. And they'll either like it or piss off. Calm down.
Posted by: Reactionary at March 23, 2011 06:26 AM (xUM1Q)
This will keep for 6 months stored "as is" in a cool dry place. Store enough for 2 gal per day per family member. Allow enough time to find a water source after the collapse. On the East coast this will not be hard except that you should remember that ANY stream contains giardia cysts that will make you sick as a dog if you drink it untreated. Boil the water no matter where you get it.
Posted by: Vic at March 23, 2011 06:26 AM (M9Ie6)
Posted by: momma at March 23, 2011 06:27 AM (penCf)
so glass jugs online are the best way to go
Kratos is right: plastic for short term storage, glass for long term. And using rain water is also good. You'd need a filter of some sort and then some purification method. Kiddie pools (with cover) might be one way to go.
Oooh, cistern futures!
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at March 23, 2011 06:27 AM (d0Tfm)
No, it isn't. We know how many child Spaniards there are right now; that's how many adults there will be in 20 years. Any addition to that number will by definition have to come from outside.
Until cloning or replication becomes viable, we have to rely on making babies ourselves to carry on the civilization. If you don't have babies today, you don't have adult citizens tomorrow unless you import them from somewhere else. That's just how it works.
not available for comment.
Posted by: hordes of European Jews at March 23, 2011 06:28 AM (WbnbO)
Posted by: Ben at March 23, 2011 06:30 AM (wuv1c)
Posted by: Monty at March 23, 2011 10:21 AM (4Pleu)
We know, suckers!!
Posted by: Muslims everywhere at March 23, 2011 06:32 AM (VuLos)
Posted by: Monty at March 23, 2011 10:21 AM (4Pleu)
Cloning? I sure hope that was in jest. I can imagine nothing more repugnant. But as for a reduced population, so what? A shrinking economy and society are not moral evils. Indeed, the thought of the last American turning off the lights and pushing the "nuke the world" button makes me smile. The US used to have a far lower population within the same territorial bounds and people seemed to get along just fine. Indeed, given the hyper-productive nature of modern manufacturing, I don't see much use for a lot of child production. There isn't enough work for the people we already have.
Posted by: Reactionary at March 23, 2011 06:32 AM (xUM1Q)
Going bankrupt is not a side effect of this spending. Bringing down the governements, state and federal, is the goal; entitlements and union benefits are just side effects of the intent to destroy.
Thinking they are willing to reduce spending in any way assumes an absence of malice. Not even a junior high school cheerleader would beleive the assumptions about interest rates. The whitehouse budget is not drawn up from stupidity, but from evil.
Posted by: Storm Saxon's Gall Bladder at March 23, 2011 06:32 AM (ElZAH)
bigberkey.com
Also I hear bleach cant be stored for long periods of time, but you can make your own bleach.
Posted by: MarkC at March 23, 2011 06:32 AM (yPPVC)
Alternatively, you can just go watch CNN and have them blow smoke up your ass.
The dollar has declined 17% in the last year; this happily coincides with QEI and QEII, which is nothing more than the printing of money and the result is a hidden tax upon us all. Now there is talk of QEIII, as they cannot get off of the bull without getting gored.
Keep up the good work Monty. Not that it will do us much good, other than possibly getting a few M&Ms to get into prep stuff.
Posted by: GnuBreed at March 23, 2011 06:34 AM (ENKCw)
Posted by: Jean at March 23, 2011 06:34 AM (WkuV6)
Posted by: Jean at March 23, 2011 06:36 AM (WkuV6)
the most worrying part is that food in supermarkets basically rotates thru every 2 weeks, so if there is some long term disruption, what will you do once those shelves are bare?
And I like this new Ten guy, he is dead on, our currency system is set up as debt. Beware any talk of global currency.
Posted by: Guy Fawkes at March 23, 2011 06:36 AM (Z1jiu)
Posted by: Shoey at March 23, 2011 06:40 AM (473WA)
No, it isn't. We know how many child Spaniards there are right now; that's how many adults there will be in 20 years. Any addition to that number will by definition have to come from outside.
Until cloning or replication becomes viable, we have to rely on making babies ourselves to carry on the civilization. If you don't have babies today, you don't have adult citizens tomorrow unless you import them from somewhere else. That's just how it works.
Posted by: Monty at March 23, 2011 10:21 AM
So, to use your example from #77, the demographics of Spain will not change radically with a massive influx of Islamists?
Um, what?
Posted by: s☺mej☼e at March 23, 2011 06:40 AM (WbnbO)
Posted by: Jean at March 23, 2011 10:36 AM (WkuV6)
I don't expect anybody to pay for my retirement. I am saving up as big an asset pile as possible. If there is still a functional economy (maybe in question...) I will be fine without any assistance. My initial plan is to expatriate and take my hoard with me. There are other places to live besides America. Not many, but a few.
Posted by: Reactionary at March 23, 2011 06:41 AM (xUM1Q)
Posted by: Jean at March 23, 2011 06:41 AM (WkuV6)
Posted by: Jean at March 23, 2011 10:34 AM (WkuV6)
Who says they'll have a choice? I doubt that a "save the oldsters" party will spring up. I could be wrong, of course, but I figure they'll be like us - they'll have nothing but a choice of evils to vote for.
Posted by: Reactionary at March 23, 2011 06:42 AM (xUM1Q)
NYC has enough food to last 3 days. So if something happens, get ready for the hordes coming over the bridges
Posted by: Ben at March 23, 2011 06:43 AM (wuv1c)
Posted by: Jean at March 23, 2011 06:44 AM (WkuV6)
Posted by: Jean at March 23, 2011 10:41 AM (WkuV6)
It's not as long as it's not a US bank in Singapore. My husband works there and has set up a business there.
Posted by: Tami at March 23, 2011 06:45 AM (VuLos)
As a reluctant fan of your DOOM! posts, I'm caught wondering how to paint a picture of the future in terms people will understand. You can go on and on about how a devalued currency will bring widespread decreases in real disposable income ( ... huh? ...) and you'll lose just about everybody.
So you simplify your explanation and talk about inflation, how simple things like lettuce is expected to be $5 a head in the very near future. We don't each much lettuce anyway. If it gets that expensive, we'll just stop buying it. Or gas (No problem) or cotton (No problem) or coffe (No problem) ... you get the idea. The downward spiral continues, except this spiral isn't in aggregate; it's personal, and will happen to millions of households.
I don't live in reality, but I have a good view of it. What I see is many versions of an egocentric universe where everything aside from one's family and job are in some far-off orbit exerting negligible forces on the person. For practically everybody, it's impossible to convince them that the debt has any effect on their lives -- even when meteors land on their heads.
Posted by: FireHorse at March 23, 2011 06:46 AM (k3RPu)
Posted by: polynikes at March 23, 2011 06:46 AM (yKP4s)
Posted by: Jean at March 23, 2011 06:46 AM (WkuV6)
TVP Bacon and Ham, avoid the chicken "chunks"
Posted by: Jean at March 23, 2011 06:50 AM (WkuV6)
Posted by: Jean at March 23, 2011 06:51 AM (WkuV6)
if we eat the entitlement beneficiaries we would be killing two birds with one stone.
we are all going to be eating the Soylent Green anyway, so why not get ahead of the game?
Posted by: Shoey at March 23, 2011 06:54 AM (473WA)
Posted by: Jean at March 23, 2011 10:51 AM (WkuV6)
Let me know if you have questions....I probably won't be able to answer them but he will. We actually lived there as expats from '94-'98.
I have a throw away email at moronettetami at gmail dot com.
Posted by: Tami at March 23, 2011 06:55 AM (VuLos)
Posted by: pitythefool at March 23, 2011 06:59 AM (BjQSh)
My response is usually, "What time, exactly, do you think we have?"
Hey, that's great Saruman. Next you'll tell us that you have fighting Uruk-Hai at your beck and call. All I can say is that The One does not share power.
Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie © at March 23, 2011 07:00 AM (1hM1d)
Is DOOM! available in freeze-dried? Is it just as good as regular, fresh-brewed DOOM! ?
Posted by: Insomniac at March 23, 2011 07:09 AM (DrWcr)
I always enjoy the delusion that "somehow, it'll all work out" and that delaying the inevitable via ostrich technique is the optimal solution. Instead of learning how to fall from a ledge and figuring out what body parts are expendable before the fall (since neither gravity nor the ledge are going away), the public is just wandering around looking at clouds and rainbows counting on surviving a faceplant into a boulder.
Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at March 23, 2011 07:15 AM (swuwV)
Can you possibly be that dim.
Rule of exponents folks. You learned it (or should have learned it) in 5th grade.
It is not fixable at this point.
It's merely a matter of when you get the result, and how it manifests itself. But your life IS going to change.
Exactly.
It's a systemic problem and has always been a systemic problem, one dialed in at the inception of the Federal Reserve Act (thanks Wilson, you jackass). All the cutting imaginable cannot reduce the debt to zero.
Posted by: Ten at March 23, 2011 07:15 AM (Xxvfv)
You learned it (or should have learned it) in 5th grade.
People don't apply 5th grade math. They say "I never got the hang of percents" or "I never use that stuff in real life."
Try this on someone. Ask them, "If your cost of living is $30,000 a year, and your expenses go up by 3% a year for 30 years, how much money will you need to get by for your first year of retirement 30 years from now?"
The "solutions" to our nation's debt problem will reflect the "answers" you get.
(The last time I did this, by the way, I got an interesting response. It was totally predictable, in retrospect.)
Posted by: FireHorse at March 23, 2011 07:34 AM (k3RPu)
For starters: start buying extra cans of soup and an extra can opener or two. City folk can store it; it keeps for a good bit; it's nutritional and provides liquid; cooking is trivial as the container can be heated; it's its own travel package.
Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at March 23, 2011 07:43 AM (swuwV)
Do not fear the future, my people! All is well!
Posted by: King Barack at March 23, 2011 07:49 AM (4Tc6B)
To whom do we 'owe' this debt to?
What are the consequences of;
A) Not taking any other steps than no more deficit spending
B) Default
And who do those steps hurt the most.
I wonder about adopting the biblical Hebrew tradition of Jubilee. (modified)
Modified by the forgiveness of a percentage of debt by all who hold personal debts. This would allow a reset and a stabilization of the real estate market and the hugh credit card debt we are carrying which is dragging the economy down AND would require that the Government also forgive debts AND restructure it's finances.
Since I haven't seen anyone suggest any solutions for this problem that don't entail decades and/or a uncivil politically motivated argument over who owes who and how much.
How much of a hit financially would the country take compared with the direction and the end result of what we're doing now?
Posted by: jakee308 at March 23, 2011 08:11 AM (fhTf7)
Where Monty and various sidekicks explore esoteric explanations of extraordinary circumstances surrounding the country's (and the various States') finances and the resulting bonedness.
Posted by: jakee308 at March 23, 2011 08:13 AM (fhTf7)
Firehorse:
I'd be willing to speculate that they told you,
"Nothing. I'll have Social Security."
Posted by: TheSev at March 23, 2011 08:48 AM (eIXPw)
Posted by: Chairman Ben at March 23, 2011 08:57 AM (P/Mqd)
How about all of the above AND create a business climate that will put people and companies to work thus raising tax revenues without raising tax rates. The ultimate solution is government austerity measures accompanied by a serious deregulation of industry and unfettering the incentives for investment. The ship is "righted" in a decade, people are back to work, fewer are dependent on government and domestic spending is lowered.
The answer has always been free market capitalism.
Posted by: BigDaddy1964 at March 23, 2011 09:01 AM (pOcKt)
To whom do we 'owe' this debt to?
Well, the Social Security Administration holds quite a bit of t-bills. Anyone who has a US Saving bond. Anyone who holds a t-bill outside of the SSA is holding "in trust" for them. Probably a number of investment funds, foreign governments, and other companies looking for "safe" investments.
What are the consequences of;
A) Not taking any other steps than no more deficit spending
B) Default
Default is bad. I won't say "no credit", but any credit needed by government will be north of 10%, assuming you can fund a sucker investor willing to take the risk.
Typically, vendors sell things to government entities on a 30 days net deal, no interest. That'll go to a cash on delivery, as we're starting to see in California.
A) is simply not possible. Even if we zeroed out the DoD and cut every "discretionary" dollar spent, we'd just barely (as of FY 2010) have more income than outgo.
But unemployment would shoot thru the roof - remember, we just zeroed out the DoD, so that's about ballpark 1.6-1.7 million new folks looking for work (about 1.5 million in service, 100,000 or so civilians). That doesn't count defense contractors. I'm sure there's a few hundred thousand who'll have to go looking for work.
And doing that means that most of the state's National Guard units will be shut down, or reduced to a completely voluntary status. Which will hurt those folks who are drawing additional income from Guard duty to supplement their current income. Some number will see their standard of living decrease, maybe to the point of foreclosure and bankruptcy.
There will be no money for bridges and road work, and maybe if we're lucky, enough to keep things fixed. Forget about trains.
So, barely treading water, no national defense, shipyards closing, no money for the upkeep on the various military vehicles, no money for major overhauls to roads and bridges, and unemployment shooting up over 12%.
Oh, yeah, except with all those unemployed and underemployed, we'll see a drop in tax revenues. So I'm guessing we go from "treading water" to "drowning in a couple of inches" pretty quickly.
Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie © at March 23, 2011 10:03 AM (1hM1d)
Yes. But my sense is that businesses are standing pat, waiting to see how Obamacare and other of The Won's initiatives pan out. I'm going to go way out on a limb and say that things won't turn around until we do all of the above and axe Obamacare.
Obamacare == cinder block chained around your neck and about to be thrown into the deep end of the pool.
Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie © at March 23, 2011 10:07 AM (1hM1d)
Posted by: BigDaddy1964 at March 23, 2011 10:34 AM (pOcKt)
Great thread as always Monty. Thanks. These keep me motivated to work hard and do all I can to prepare.
I do disagree with you about Spain and Europe going Islamic though. If the Euro doesn't collapse for 20 years or so, then yes, they're Islamic. But with the coming collapse of the Euro and the welfare states, I think Europe will turn very inhospitable to Muslims VERY fast.
We're already seeing relatively ugly riots over austerity measures and the crap hasn't really hit the fan. Once DOOM happens and the reality sets in that Europe can't afford to keep paying their would be conquerors, I think most of the people will be happy to scapegoat the Muslims and will force them out. First by reducing, then eliminating benefits, followed by payments and incentives to leave. Any state that remains even remotely hospitable to muslims is going to be the safe harbour, getting tides of refugees and then pushing that state over the line. Sadly, I see Canada as being the sucker state willing to take them all in, and the Muslims gladly accepting. That's one reason I hope Canada gets incredibly, painfully boned when the US falls.The worse things are, the harder it will be for any mass migration of muslims in. Dream scenario - like Europe, we push them out.
If any sort of terror attack happens in the name of Allah after the economy has collapsed, I can't see any victom dhimmi state not going postal on their asses. It's not like the Muslims have been ideal citizens over the years. I don't think we've evolved that much since World War 2. And I don't think it would take a major event to turn things ugly after DOOM. A well publicised Muslim rape or brutal beating just might break the camels back.
There's one famous picture of a Muslim holding a sign at a European protest reading "Be prepared for the REAL holocaust!" I'm prepared. I just don't think the holocaust he envisions is going to be the one that happens. I used to be one of the most liberal, accepting multi-culti types. After 9/11 and seeing what Islam is, if that holocaust happens, I don't see me doing much to protest it. And I haven't even lived in DOOM society yet.
Back to work. Much to do.
Posted by: Canadian Infidel at March 23, 2011 11:01 AM (GKQDR)
TheSev @ 149: "Nothing. I'll have Social Security."
Believe it or not, her answer was worse than that.
She (early-mid 50s) said she has no money saved for retirement, and that she plans to fund her retirement by working an easy job, perhaps bagging groceries somewhere.
Maybe "bagging groceries" is a euphemism for retirement job. I remember older people doing just that when I was a kid: Mailmen would retire from the postal service and find a light job in a local supermarket. But they mainly did this for something to do. This lady seemed serious, that bagging groceries was her literal, honest-to-goodness plan.
Social Security? At least that still exists for now. The income stream this woman is counting on hasn't been around for twenty years.
Posted by: FireHorse at March 23, 2011 11:28 AM (k3RPu)
Bagging groceries is no longer a "job" at most stores since the minimum wage went up. The clerks here bag them and the customer carries them to the car.
Posted by: Vic at March 23, 2011 11:33 AM (M9Ie6)
i am currently reading a book that covers the Dececember 2001 Aregentina crisis. good advice, interesting read, and some assumptions i had about SHTF were proven incorrect. he is living through it. the title is Surviving the Economic Collapse, by Fernando "ferfal" aguirre......
bueller? bueller? anyone here?
Posted by: OldDominionMinion at March 23, 2011 03:24 PM (xOpY+)
Posted by: Internet Commenter at March 23, 2011 08:38 PM (qK6mz)
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Specifically, the costs to service our debt
Can't our debt find cheaper hookers in the broke down, crime ridden part of town?
Posted by: Ben at March 23, 2011 05:30 AM (wuv1c)