Ace of Spades HQ

June 22, 2011

U.S. Senate Races 2012 Projections (updated 6/22/2011)
— CAC

Map is BIG so I am putting it below the fold:

The map is pretty self explanatory. Currently Republicans are projected to flip five seats. I threw in some "what ifs" to reflect the possibility of a nightmare scenario for the Democrats- Republicans who passed up or were defeated in previous election primaries but who could really alter the landscape even more favorably to the GOP.

Right now, if you want a simple majority, you are already there. If you want a filibuster proof majority to totally undo Obamacare, you need to fight pretty damn hard and flip seats in Wisconsin, Ohio, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Florida, Michigan, and Minnesota. Being that Republicans made gains in all of these states in 2010, there is a chance, but it is currently a small one.

Posted by: CAC at 10:49 AM | Comments (72)
Post contains 148 words, total size 1 kb.

1
that's a big map

Posted by: Soothsayer at June 22, 2011 10:48 AM (sqkOB)

2 "If you want a filibuster proof majority to totally undo Obamacare, you need to fight pretty damn hard..."

Posted by: Olliander at June 22, 2011 10:49 AM (6uiF7)

3 Racist Electorate Throws Temper Tantrum!

Posted by: State Media Headline from 2013 at June 22, 2011 10:49 AM (7BU4a)

4 Interesting. Even if Obama wins in 2012, he will be neutered.

Posted by: Chris R at June 22, 2011 10:49 AM (QiNmA)

5 Yikes

Posted by: Olliander at June 22, 2011 10:49 AM (6uiF7)

6 Will the remaining Dem senators still decide to filibuster in favor of Obamacare despite the fact that it will have destroyed their party?

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at June 22, 2011 10:50 AM (YmPwQ)

7
pretty colors

Posted by: Dr. Varno at June 22, 2011 10:51 AM (QMtmy)

8 If the R's respect the filibuster re Obycare, they deserve to disappear as a political party. RECONCILIATION!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: pashmr10 at June 22, 2011 10:51 AM (3aNC4)

9
If Obama wins in 2012, that means turnout for GOP was low.

And that means we'll be lucky to do well in the Senate, and we could even the lose the House. The Democrats need only, what, 25 seats to take the majority?

That's worst case scenario. But it could happen if our nominee is a turd and/or the economy comes roaring back.

Posted by: Soothsayer at June 22, 2011 10:52 AM (sqkOB)

10 Do you have any reason to believe that Castle would decide to take on Carper after dodging the chance at least twice?

Posted by: Blue Hen at June 22, 2011 10:52 AM (6rX0K)

11 I wouldn't be so confident about Jon Tester being defeated. He's been a leader on many pro-2A bills in the Senate, and as such he's avoiding one of the big mistakes Democrats make.

Posted by: Ken at June 22, 2011 10:52 AM (Ra/Se)

12 6 yes. The remaining senators will be purely liberal.

Posted by: Chris R at June 22, 2011 10:52 AM (QiNmA)

13
AoS

Now in W I D E S C R E E N

Posted by: Soothsayer at June 22, 2011 10:53 AM (sqkOB)

14 Tommy Thompson is a RINO, WI could do MUCH better, see (Sen. Ron Johnson).

RINO hunting season is opening up soon!!

Posted by: Raquel at June 22, 2011 10:53 AM (1wgaP)

15
I like how the header is set in the Comic Sans font, cuz it's a pretty comic map.

But the legend is set in the Impact font, so it gives it that Macro/lolcat feel.

Posted by: Dr. Varno at June 22, 2011 10:53 AM (QMtmy)

16 Mark Kelly, Giffords husband, is resigning from NASA to run for AZ senate, so unfortunately switch that one to deep blue, I don't see how he gets defeated.

Posted by: MaureenTheTemp at June 22, 2011 10:53 AM (8kq7+)

17 11 From Montana, in this climate? Tester is toast.

Posted by: Chris R at June 22, 2011 10:54 AM (QiNmA)

18 Will the remaining Dem senators still decide to filibuster in favor of Obamacare despite the fact that it will have destroyed their party?

I would think so, especially those that are re-elected in 2012. Those that get ousted in 2012 would be considered RINO or ultra-RINO if they were Republicans. That leaves Core Democrats (think Pelosi, Stoyer, Durbin, etc.).

Posted by: John P. Squibob at June 22, 2011 10:54 AM (/U/Mr)

19 CAC, MO should be at least likely R and probably very likely R. McCaskill and her airplane fiasco and her support of O'DipshitCare has pretty much destroyed her in the state, even among the sissy moderates.

And Todd Akin, a constitutional conservative Congressman (my dist.) is running against her. He's got a good reputation statewide. I think he'll kick the shit out of her.

Posted by: Sukie Tawdry at June 22, 2011 10:54 AM (MPtFW)

20 Who spread this blog out so far? Wide angle is fine, but THIS?????

Posted by: irongrampa at June 22, 2011 10:54 AM (ud5dN)

21 17: Most likely, but 2A is a big issue in the Intermountain West. The GOP had better nominate someone who's a leader on the issue, not a Huntsman type.

Posted by: Ken at June 22, 2011 10:55 AM (Ra/Se)

22 Where's all dem dare cross-hairs?

Posted by: Bubba at June 22, 2011 10:56 AM (qdI7N)

23 16 It's Arizona.

Posted by: Chris R at June 22, 2011 10:56 AM (QiNmA)

24 17: Most likely, but 2A is a big issue in the Intermountain West. The GOP had better nominate someone who's a leader on the issue, not a Huntsman type.

Posted by: Ken at June 22, 2011 02:55 PM (Ra/Se)

Rehberg is in the running, is strong on 2A issues, and will beat him.

Posted by: CAC at June 22, 2011 10:57 AM (JEVge)

25 SEIU/ACORN bumper sticker: BRING OUT YOUR DEAD.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at June 22, 2011 10:57 AM (Rlz/P)

Senate "races". Republicans.

I'm pretty sure there's something racist about that.

Posted by: KingMolybdenum at June 22, 2011 10:58 AM (c45xH)

27 CAC will you email me please?

Posted by: Truman North at June 22, 2011 10:58 AM (K2wpv)

28 Yowza, now that's a map! um, i don't get the barely part... ?

Posted by: Shame The Shameless at June 22, 2011 10:59 AM (dh5Eu)

29 16 Mark Kelly, Giffords husband, is resigning from NASA to run for AZ senate, so unfortunately switch that one to deep blue, I don't see how he gets defeated.

Has he confirmed he's running against Jeff Flake?

Posted by: Miss'80sBaby at June 22, 2011 10:59 AM (yRL86)

30 >>>>>.Mark Kelly, Giffords husband, is resigning from NASA to run for AZ senate, so unfortunately switch that one to deep blue, I don't see how he gets defeated.

Really with Obama at the top of the ticket? I mean Obama and his Dept. Of Injustice has literally taken a big shit on AZ several times. There is 0% chance Mark Kelly will win. Arizona is more RED then ever.

Posted by: Raquel at June 22, 2011 10:59 AM (1wgaP)

31 5 Interesting. Even if Obama wins in 2012, he will be neutered.

Posted by: Chris R at June 22, 2011 02:49 PM (QiNmA)

You forgot the FoO fighters(Friends of Obama)

Don Juan McPain, Grahmnesty, The Main Twisters, Snortkowski..a den of vipers I tell ya

Posted by: Red Shirt at June 22, 2011 11:00 AM (FIDMq)

32 Even if Obama wins in 2012, he will be neutered.

The hell he will.

Obama must lose, or we're finished.

Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at June 22, 2011 11:01 AM (jsxKh)

33 I don't see how he gets defeated.

Live boy, maybe.

Posted by: Bubba at June 22, 2011 11:01 AM (qdI7N)

34 That map is tacky.

Posted by: Jerome von Swish, interior designer at June 22, 2011 11:01 AM (MMC8r)

35 Howabout those Gov races?

Posted by: Jean at June 22, 2011 11:02 AM (WkuV6)

36 No, no, no, the wOn will not be neutered by a filibuster proof senate. He is legislating as we speak through cass sunstein, and executive order.

Dream act enabled by E.O. ... on gateway.com i think.

Posted by: Shame The Shameless at June 22, 2011 11:02 AM (dh5Eu)

37 Even if Obama wins in 2012, he will be neutered.

Posted by: Chris R at June 22, 2011 02:49 PM (QiNmA)

Never heard of executive fiat, have you?

Posted by: blue star at June 22, 2011 11:02 AM (JE8ff)

38 Mark Kelly, Giffords husband, is resigning from NASA to run for AZ senate, so unfortunately switch that one to deep blue, I don't see how he gets defeated

Let the shitbag do it. I have a feeling that Arizonans are going to decide they need Saint Gabby on a statewide scale like they need holes in their heads.

Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at June 22, 2011 11:02 AM (jsxKh)

39

What an odd relationship they have

They never see each other, and it seems that Mark Kelley will do anything to get away from Giffords -- go in orbit for no reason, run for Senate so he'll live in Washington.

They have no children and they enjoy being thousands of miles apart. Weird.

Posted by: Soothsayer at June 22, 2011 11:03 AM (sqkOB)

Posted by: Shame The Shameless at June 22, 2011 03:02 PM (dh5Eu)

Get outta my head, would you?

Posted by: blue star at June 22, 2011 11:03 AM (JE8ff)

41 Don't mean shit if the R's don't get out and VOTE.

Posted by: © Sponge at June 22, 2011 11:03 AM (p/9rC)

42 17 11 From Montana, in this climate? Tester is toast.

I wouldn't be too sure, Montana has a hitory of being solid R for prez and iffy to D for Senate and House. Plus, Montana's become the "in" place for hollywood types which will help Tester.

Posted by: booger at June 22, 2011 11:03 AM (9RFH1)

43 What about the October surprise? You know there will be one. Desparate times require desparate means.

Posted by: Sub-Tard at June 22, 2011 11:03 AM (Q5+Og)

44
Back later, when y'all fix the WIDESCREEN crap.

Posted by: irongrampa at June 22, 2011 11:03 AM (ud5dN)

TN, emailed.

Undead, bingo. He will find a way to skirt and fuck us all.

#30- Mark Kelly is NOT going to flip Arizona in this environment, regardless of the "sympathy" vote. Obama is on top, Republicans are fueled up in that state, it stays red. He could run for congress, however, and cary his district. That is likely.

Posted by: CAC at June 22, 2011 11:03 AM (JEVge)

46 It looks like someone has a Wide Stance ^TM taday ....

Posted by: Arbalest at June 22, 2011 11:04 AM (HlMmB)

47
irongrampa is a 4:3ist

Posted by: Soothsayer at June 22, 2011 11:05 AM (sqkOB)

48 >>If you want a filibuster proof majority to totally undo Obamacare, you need to fight pretty damn hard and flip seats in...<<

How about we flip the White House, eh?

And if we take the Senate in 2012, I'm pretty sure 51 seats is enough to get a small map.

Posted by: SlaveDog at June 22, 2011 11:05 AM (9fDAi)

49 >>>>>>.Even if Obama wins in 2012, he will be neutered.

Let's not forget that Obama is already using the EPA to implement Cap and Tax, the NLRB to implement card check.......etc.....

And you can always count on Juan McVain, Grahamnesty, the Main twins, Murky, Scott Brown Nose to screw us.

Posted by: Raquel at June 22, 2011 11:07 AM (1wgaP)

50 Haven't you morons figured out what's causing the widescreen yet? Jeeeeeez......

Posted by: Sukie Tawdry at June 22, 2011 11:07 AM (MPtFW)

51 fuck math.

and salt.

Posted by: sifty at June 22, 2011 11:08 AM (JhB7I)

52
the minimum to make me happy in 2012 is the majority in the Senate

If we get that, we can stop the Court picks.

Okay, we can stop the radical Court picks.

Okay, okay. We can stop the really bad Court picks for a few weeks.

Posted by: Soothsayer at June 22, 2011 11:08 AM (sqkOB)

53 52 fuck math.

and salt.

And onion powder, snotty little spice thinks it's all that.

Posted by: booger at June 22, 2011 11:09 AM (9RFH1)

The eyes.....it burns.

Hey....somebody had to make the ugliest map ever. It just happened to be you.

Posted by: eleven at June 22, 2011 11:11 AM (7DB+a)

55 irongrampa is a 4:3ist

Posted by: Soothsayer at June 22, 2011 03:05 PM (sqkOB)

And there's nothing wrong with that.

I still have the world's largest picture tube in my bedroom.

Posted by: © Sponge at June 22, 2011 11:11 AM (p/9rC)

56 Maybe if we ran more Ladd Ehlinger videos....

Posted by: blaster at June 22, 2011 11:11 AM (Fw2Gg)

57 He could run for congress, however, and cary his district. That is likely.

He'd carry Tucson, which is what I'm guessing the new 9th District will be. That would be fine with me, since with the Tucson areas cut out the 8th becomes a pretty solid GOP seat.

Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at June 22, 2011 11:11 AM (jsxKh)

58 Haven't you morons figured out what's causing the widescreen yet? Jeeeeeez......

Posted by: Sukie Tawdry at June 22, 2011 03:07 PM (MPtFW)

Gee....You mean the BIG FUCKING MAP at the top of the post?

No...I've got no idea.

Posted by: © Sponge at June 22, 2011 11:12 AM (p/9rC)

59 >>>>>>#30- Mark Kelly is NOT going to flip Arizona in this environment, regardless of the "sympathy" vote. Obama is on top, Republicans are fueled up in that state, it stays red. He could run for congress, however, and cary his district. That is likely.

>>>That's what I said. And no Mark Kelly won't hold her district. Let's not forget that Jesse Kelly (no relation) would have won her district if it weren't for a spoiler libertarian. He lost by 3,000 votes. With the libertarian candidate getting 11,500 votes. That's why I am in favor of the "jungle primary" to do away with all these spoiler candidates. We would have won 15-20 more seats if it wasn't for spoilers.

Posted by: Raquel at June 22, 2011 11:14 AM (1wgaP)

60 I bet you could write really long sentence and never get to the end of the screen no matter how long the sentence, or how hard you really try to get there with it.

Posted by: The Mega Independent at June 22, 2011 11:14 AM (88HwY)

61 61: You lose. (But not The Game. Well, until now anyway.)

Posted by: AoSHQ's *second* worst commenter, DarkLord© at June 22, 2011 11:18 AM (GBXon)

62 So the Dem nightmare is holding all the seats that have nightmare scenarios?

Posted by: Oldcat at June 22, 2011 11:18 AM (z1N6a)

63 Oh i see, its the color of the actual star.

Posted by: Oldcat at June 22, 2011 11:20 AM (z1N6a)

64 Fuckin' Herbs of Provence has no place in my house.

Posted by: sifty, internet carebear at June 22, 2011 11:20 AM (JhB7I)

65 Mark Kelly won't hold her district.

It won't be the same district, see #58.

BTW, I know that Giffords isn't actually dead, but how many Democrat elected officials are basically there because they ran on a corpse? There's Carolyn McCarthy and the Missouri Carnahan family has certainly benefitted from it.

Even Mondale tried it, but Minnesotans, whatever they are, aren't that morbid.

Posted by: AmishDude at June 22, 2011 11:20 AM (73tyQ)

66
62:

I zoom, therefore I win.

Posted by: The Mega Independent at June 22, 2011 11:22 AM (88HwY)

67 Fwiw, someone was asserting (here or Hot Air, can't remember where) that if Hatch is primaried by Rep. Jason Chaffetz, then the Rs could lose that seat to Rep. Matheson. I find that hard to believe based on how popular Chaffetz is around these parts, but you may need to lighten up that red a bit for Utah.

Posted by: Y-not at June 22, 2011 11:35 AM (TFxd0)

#69

It is Utah.

65% Republican Utah.

It isn't going Democratic any more than Bernie Sanders will face a real challenge in 2012.

Posted by: CAC at June 22, 2011 12:02 PM (JEVge)

69 CAC, are you on twitter? If so, @ParisParamus. Also, LOL huge map.

Posted by: LennonLenin at June 22, 2011 12:10 PM (QN76w)

It is Utah.

65% Republican Utah.

True enough but how does a guy like Matheson have a seat there in the first place?

Posted by: chemjeff at June 22, 2011 12:16 PM (czcue)

71 Feinstein? Forced retirement?

Unlikely.

The fucking idiot voters in this stupid state returned that slimy piece of shit Boxer to the Senate. There's no way Feinstein is going to feel vulnerable to the point of looking to retire.

Posted by: Blacque Jacques Shellacque at June 22, 2011 12:21 PM (1rHeD)

72
THE MAP

IT EATZ ME

Posted by: LOLGolem14 at June 22, 2011 12:35 PM (2X8VA)

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