July 18, 2011
— Ace I don't know if this is intrinsic to Romney, per se. The poll specifies the Romney-Obama head-to-head, of course. But maybe Romney could be a stand-in for any nonthreatening sort of "Generic Republican."
Is there any plausible path to victory for Obama that doesn't include Michigan?
he poll showed 46% of likely voters either supporting or leaning toward supporting Romney, compared to 42% supporting or leaning toward supporting Obama, with 12% undecided. Romney is considered to be the presumptive frontrunner among the large field of Republicans running for the nomination to face the Democrat, Obama, next year.
Actually, this is the second finding that Romney leads in Michigan; his support as far as certain voters actually sagged a little in this one.
Thanks to CAC. He adds:
Romney currently leads or ties in MI,IA,NV,NC,PA,FL,NH. Added to the 180EV's from 2008 and Indiana, which is an obvious win, that would give Romney an EV total of 287 (assuming that he loses Virginia somehow).
EPIC is headed by a group of former Dem leaders in the state, so if they are showing Obama down, he is down here.
NOT endorsing Romney, but the perception that Obama is still "leading" is just utter horseshit. Kos' own pollster, PPP, found just butt-ugly stats out of Pennsylvania, our eternal political cocktease
Romney does tie Obama in PA, according to a Kos poll.
Posted by: Ace at
06:12 PM
| Comments (85)
Post contains 249 words, total size 2 kb.
Posted by: chemjeff at July 18, 2011 06:14 PM (1N25r)
Posted by: fluffy at July 18, 2011 06:14 PM (SwkdU)
Posted by: Gazzer at July 18, 2011 06:15 PM (P6Hce)
Posted by: ace at July 18, 2011 06:15 PM (nj1bB)
Posted by: chemjeff at July 18, 2011 06:15 PM (1N25r)
OT,http://tinyurl.com/3d2tne5
Posted by: Sack Puppet at July 18, 2011 06:16 PM (mLAWK)
Posted by: twiceblessedmom at July 18, 2011 06:16 PM (HjxoE)
Still... I just like seeing bad news for Obama.
Me too. He makes him all testy and shit and I love it when he gets testy because then his true colors begin to emerge. The worse the news is, the more he will show his true self. He may be a genius (according to some) but he's also a narcissist.
Posted by: jewells45 at July 18, 2011 06:18 PM (Z71Vg)
THAT is how you wishcast, people.
Posted by: StPatrick_TN at July 18, 2011 06:20 PM (D+phB)
9 - too quick for me
Considering my really shit day, I'm surprised I was that fast! Had a little to much to drink, been a bad day here.. saving it for the ONT.
Posted by: jewells45 at July 18, 2011 06:20 PM (Z71Vg)
Posted by: Trimegistus at July 18, 2011 10:20 PM (2G2Xo)
May I recommend Tobasco?
Posted by: J...E...F...JEF! at July 18, 2011 06:21 PM (D+phB)
Posted by: Waterhouse at July 18, 2011 06:21 PM (N8HQT)
Posted by: twiceblessedmom at July 18, 2011 06:21 PM (HjxoE)
Posted by: twiceblessedmom at July 18, 2011 06:22 PM (HjxoE)
Posted by: volfan at July 18, 2011 06:23 PM (Wv02x)
Posted by: t-bird at July 18, 2011 06:23 PM (FcR7P)
Posted by: twiceblessedmom at July 18, 2011 06:24 PM (HjxoE)
Posted by: Peaches at July 18, 2011 06:24 PM (afUO8)
Posted by: twiceblessedmom at July 18, 2011 06:25 PM (HjxoE)
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at July 18, 2011 10:24 PM (jx2j9)
I voted for him last time, the grouchy old prick lost.
Posted by: robtr at July 18, 2011 06:25 PM (MtwBb)
Posted by: volfan at July 18, 2011 10:23 PM (Wv02x)
You give SJL too much credit - it's not like she can take direction. Her retardery is more internally driven, and independent of aught but unearned ego. Nice handle, by the way.
Posted by: StPatrick_TN at July 18, 2011 06:25 PM (D+phB)
Considering my really shit day, I'm surprised I was that fast! Had a little to much to drink, been a bad day here.. saving it for the ONT.
Posted by: jewells45 at July 18, 2011 10:20 PM (Z71Vg)
Big hug, girlfriend. About to join you in the "too much to drink" zone, sorry about your day, I was hoping it was just me . . .
Posted by: Peaches at July 18, 2011 06:26 PM (afUO8)
Bad news: Romney? We're not really going to do that are we?
Posted by: DrewM. at July 18, 2011 06:27 PM (y07gN)
Big hug, girlfriend. About to join you in the "too much to drink" zone, sorry about your day, I was hoping it was just me . . .
Posted by: Peaches at July 18, 2011 10:26 PM (afUO
Nope it was a shitty day here today too. The sun is beating down and it's hotter than hell. It got up to 72 today. I'm dyin here.
Posted by: robtr at July 18, 2011 06:28 PM (MtwBb)
Big hug, girlfriend. About to join you in the "too much to drink" zone, sorry about your day, I was hoping it was just me . . .
Aww, thanks Peaches and twice blessed mom. You girls are awesome. Hope to be able to meet you someday!!
Posted by: jewells45 at July 18, 2011 06:28 PM (Z71Vg)
Bad news: Romney? We're not really going to do that are we?
Posted by: DrewM. at July 18, 2011 10:27 PM (y07gN)
Depends...where does he stand on mosques?
Posted by: StPatrick_TN at July 18, 2011 06:28 PM (D+phB)
Thank you! And let's not forget to tip our waitresses tonight. Particularly the non-union ones who show up and get 'er done when they are supposed to. 7:29 PDT, in case anyone is without a timepiece.
Posted by: Peaches at July 18, 2011 06:29 PM (afUO8)
Buck up, gang. He's not a hundred feet tall. As we have repeatedly pointed out.
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at July 18, 2011 06:29 PM (7utQ2)
Nope it was a shitty day here today too. The sun is beating down and it's hotter than hell. It got up to 72 today. I'm dyin here.
Oh STFU! It was already in the damn 90's at 10:00 am with 80 percent humidity!
Posted by: jewells45 at July 18, 2011 06:29 PM (Z71Vg)
Posted by: Peaches at July 18, 2011 10:24 PM (afUO
Ahh ken tell ya son, that languishin', just as us black folk been languishin' all these yeaas, ain't gonna be bringin' that overly nocturnal emittin' thread no soona. Heaa?
Posted by: Rev. Jesse Jackson at July 18, 2011 06:30 PM (jx2j9)
DENIALIST!!!
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at July 18, 2011 06:30 PM (7utQ2)
Posted by: Lemon Kitten at July 18, 2011 06:30 PM (0fzsA)
Buck up, gang. He's not a hundred feet tall. As we have repeatedly pointed out.
I hope you are right but I didn't think he had a snowballs chance in 08 either.
Posted by: jewells45 at July 18, 2011 06:31 PM (Z71Vg)
Posted by: twiceblessedmom at July 18, 2011 06:31 PM (HjxoE)
All of these poll numbers are before the left ramps up their "flood the country with anti-LDS bigoted Alysnki operation." Maybe Perry or T-Paw can spare us all that.
Sorry was that a 2012 spoiler? Can it be an actual "spoiler" if it is more predictable then a Disney or Lifetime movie?
Posted by: Sack Puppet at July 18, 2011 06:33 PM (mLAWK)
Posted by: chemjeff at July 18, 2011 06:33 PM (1N25r)
The real reason Democrats have refused to release a budget for 800 days: they know that S&P will downgrade the U.S. if it passes
Posted by: sTevo at July 18, 2011 06:33 PM (VMcEw)
Posted by: Brett_McS at July 18, 2011 10:31 PM (q+fa
I rather like the ring of "Majority Leader Marco Rubio". It would be excellent to see one of our own (a real one, not Mitch McC) control the Senate calendar. A man can hope, after all.
Posted by: StPatrick_TN at July 18, 2011 06:34 PM (D+phB)
Posted by: chemjeff at July 18, 2011 10:33 PM (1N25r)
Thanks chemjeff. How are you handling this horrible heat wave?
Posted by: jewells45 at July 18, 2011 06:34 PM (Z71Vg)
2008 was their perfect storm and I knew after the Palin bump faded that it just wasn't possible. Conditions are different now. The one thing that will kill us is if whoever the nominee is pulls a McCain and goes all soft in the last six weeks. What the hell was that? I don't think even Romney would do that.
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at July 18, 2011 06:34 PM (7utQ2)
And if not, who could step in now?
Posted by: free opinions while they last at July 18, 2011 06:36 PM (zMG/R)
Posted by: chemjeff at July 18, 2011 06:36 PM (1N25r)
Posted by: Jean at July 18, 2011 06:37 PM (7P7Ij)
Rather, look at the electoral pathways. Romney's template is George W. Bush in 2000. If you consider NV, CO, IA, WI, MI, PA, VA, NH as toss-ups, Romney has 19 winning combinations without any state necessary to all winning strategies. Obama has 8 pathways, all of which rely on MI and PA.
Given Census2010 changes, Romney can lose Colorado and Nevada from W2000 and still win with 270. Nevada is on the order of 10% Mormon with economic problems, so it will be a good state to look to. He can also play in Wisconsin and Michigan, the latter state will cause Obama to expend much resources as it's a necessary state. Virginia will be decided by the Senate rematch.
Apply the state demographics, current polling and economic modeling on top and you find Romney is likely undervalued in the information exchanges given his general election chances, mostly as a discount because the conservatives like you are still beating him up.
Posted by: Uriah Heep at July 18, 2011 06:47 PM (EEOfv)
And there are a great many people here who aren't wild about how the UAW got saved while everyone else [pretty much] is getting cuts.
I think it is more uphill here for Obama than history would indicate.
And if *any* reasonable candidate would run against Debbie Stupidcow I don't care how much damn money she has, she'd lose. I simply don't understand why no one wants to run against her.
Posted by: JorgXMcKie at July 18, 2011 07:00 PM (290l2)
Posted by: DocJ at July 18, 2011 07:05 PM (wiCt4)
And if not, who could step in now?
Posted by: free opinions while they last at July 18, 2011 10:36 PM (zMG/R)
hillary clinton?
Posted by: curious at July 18, 2011 07:18 PM (k1rwm)
Posted by: Ben at July 18, 2011 07:25 PM (DKV43)
Posted by: LaQuisha Johnson at July 18, 2011 07:29 PM (qXGZK)
Romney is leading despite the perception of many Michiganders that he wanted to sellout GM and Chrysler during the days prior to the bailout. He definitely was against the government doing the deed, and wanted a true bankruptcy proceding. I think he overcomes this issue in Michigan now, based on the results of the bailout, as many here think now maybe he was right. Especially GM bond holders, who were shafted royally. Obama has less and less support every day. BO has done nothing for Detroit and that is a fact. The Dem turnout will be lower in 2012 than in 2008, significantly, and the state redistricting plan looks to be quite advantageous to the R guys.
He was here some months back and I went to his event, he asked me for money of course, and I had to give it a bit of thought first.
I'm still thinking it over.
Posted by: MisterMoney at July 18, 2011 07:31 PM (wN82N)
Believe me, they're much further along than Cleveland is who still keeps electing cocksuckers like Kucinich although he's getting redistricted out of existence and will pack his carpetbag for Washington state where he can stink it up.
Also in Dave Bing I think people of Detroit finally have a mayor who wants to do the right thing; too bad for him that things are so fucking bad though....
Still I wouldn't be surprised if Bammy has a tough road in Meechigan.
Posted by: Captain Hate at July 18, 2011 07:33 PM (zsvKP)
Posted by: Corona at July 18, 2011 07:51 PM (fh2Y7)
Posted by: Dan at July 18, 2011 07:55 PM (mXBxH)
todya on CNBC they were basically saying "it's the housing crisis stupid" and saying we can't recover unless housing recovers and, as is, they don't see any recovery until 2014.
Just saying that date doesn't bode well for reelection unless somehow only dems vote in the election or something.
Posted by: curious at July 18, 2011 08:03 PM (k1rwm)
Posted by: Uncle Milty at July 18, 2011 08:26 PM (mRKwV)
Posted by: wheelers cat at July 18, 2011 08:36 PM (o4KFi)
Posted by: ParisParamus-Hewitt at July 18, 2011 09:51 PM (oISis)
So Obama will spend all his money* and the DNC's demonizing the GOP nominee. This is why I think we need an experienced but somewhat boring figure, someone who is hard to paint as nuts or extreme. Pawlenty was attractive in this respect, but so are Romney and Perry. There aren't likely to be any surprises about any of them coming out, and it will be hard to portray them as out of the mainstream with their years of public life.
For some reason, the media fell all over Huntsman when he declared, assuming the same thing perhaps, or maybe he was just so close to Obama he won them through the reflected glory.
* Despite the media fawning over Obama's fundraising, he is behind where he was in 2007 at this point, and even behind Bush in 2003. So it ain't nearly so impressive as they make it sound.
Posted by: Adjoran at July 18, 2011 09:57 PM (VfmLu)
Posted by: sexypig at July 18, 2011 10:26 PM (VwxAL)
he is the McLame of this cycle and yet everyone is still buying into the bullshit.
enough already! as the slogan on the old Wallace button my folks have with Humphrey & Nixon on it says "Not a dime's worth of difference between them"
Posted by: redc1c4 at July 18, 2011 11:15 PM (d1FhN)
Posted by: D-FENS at July 19, 2011 07:59 AM (FbBtq)
Posted by: Molon Labe at July 19, 2011 12:09 PM (g5MrG)
Posted by: The Stranger’s Child Audiobook at July 19, 2011 05:56 PM (qz3ej)
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Posted by: jewells45 at July 18, 2011 06:13 PM (Z71Vg)