1 Watching the Benanke press conference right now. What a dope.

2 Electoral college TIE!!!

3 But it worked in the lecture series!

4

On the other hand, they're also upshifting their projections for inflation and unemployment.

Stagflation baby!  Embrace the rehashed, re-warmed 70's suck. 

5 I also wonder whether it is a ruse to say later on- "well we did better than expected"...

6

Well, any downward revision is probably safe, at this point.  Even if the commies are thrown out of power in the next election cycle, the guys on our side have shown very little spark when it comes to ideas for pushing the government out of the way.  I see no new Reagans in the current batch.  The best we can hope for is a budget closer to balance, and that will slow the economy even more, possibly sparking a deflationary death spiral.  The Reps are scared to do anything about regulation, afriad to fight against the AGW bull crap.  They will not get us any new nuke plants, even of the new, safer pebble bed style.  They will not seal the border to reduce the low-skill labor pool.  The only thing they seem to remember is that tax cuts for business are good, and they're unlikely to really even do much of that for fear of public outrage. 

 

7
oh dear, this is bad news for Obama

Obama's budget proposals are all based on 4.1 GDP annual growth.

8

Federal Reserve officials lowered their forecasts for growth and employment this year and next, underscoring the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement today that the recovery “is continuing at a moderate pace, though somewhat more slowly” than previously expected.

 

 

Have no fear comrades the glorious 5 year plan recovery is still happening. It's just moving so slowly that it may appear to not be moving or going backwards.

9 As I have always said, it will take exactly four years and one month to recover from Bush's recession.

10 I don't understand. I thought rebounds from recessions were usually in the 5-7% growth range.

11

Gee, shock!

 

Unexpectedly, Unprecedented, Unforseen.  I don't know about you, but I'm getting really tired of Precedent UnAmerican.

12

So.  Doom is a four letter word.  I did not know that.

13 So if there is any increase, the slightest bit, in the 'projections' they can carp that things are getting better than expected, etc.

14
Ace, back in '09 you did a few posts mentioning 'the new normal.'


I'm surprised you haven't used that phrase recently in light of the new normal becoming reality.

15 This administration is doing nothing to stimulate the economy and a shitload of stuff that's hurting it. Growth over 3% would be unexpected in my opinion.

16 "Catch Me Now I'm Falling" from the same Kinks album might be even more appropriate.

17 The new normal embraces part time jobs created!

18
And the reason I've been thinking of "the new normal" is because we've had sustained high gas prices and sustained high unemployment under Obama.

I just paid $3.59/gal for gas yesterday and I did feel a little bit glad it wasn't $3.96.

Obama has me happy for $3.59/gal gas, is my point.

This is not good.

19 Abby Someone.

Abby Normal.

I'm almost sure that was the name.

20 I just paid $3.59/gal for gas yesterday and I did feel a little bit glad it wasn't $3.96.

$3.79 in this part of San Diego.

21 Does anyone know what percent of U.S. farmland is going to be unproductive this year from the flooding? It seems to stretch from parts of ND to Ohio and then the area they flooded to keep the Mississippi from taking out New Orleans and Baton Rogue. That isn't going to help GDP OR food prices.

22 This sounds as if it could be considered critical of President Obama. I, KingAu, therefore decree it to be racist!

23
$3.79 in this part of San Diego.

...and California emissions!

back to you, Bob

24 DOW just did a Bald Ben Bounce. It's flat-lining.

25 Sum one should dig up all those "Number of New Jobs Added Lower Then Expected" headlines from the Bush years.

Wouldnt it be great if the combination of polarized congress abdicating responsibility, White house executive orders, and the entire fed apparatus didn't mean we basically elected a king every 4 years?

If only the Founders had prevented the government from printing its own money, divided the government,  given the purse strings to only one branch, and put in enough protections so that the economy could act and change independently of government meddling.   Why in one life time people who literally had been riding horses for thousands of years could land on the moon.

All those jokes about how its 2011 where is my meal in a pill form and rocket boots?  That's not a joke on the past for them the rate of progress was so fast those things seemed plausible.   We, with with computers and far more wealth for investment we just shrink phones and speed up porn.  Government "safety and comfort" plans actually anchors down innovations that would have actually created safety and comfort. The joke... is on us.

26 At least the chocolate ration was increased again.

27 It's starting to feel like rapeflation.

28 Unexpectedly, Fed Reduces Growth-Rate Forecasts for 2011, 2012
The economy is racist.

29 And the Federal Reserve will be correct about their growth forecasts because they have been right about everything else for the past few years?

/dooooom!

30 This doesn't surprise me - we've equilibrated to a new lower "normal" and will then proceed from there, and, if Bernanke was allowed to comment more on policy, he'd point out that his academic work would show just that, and why it is (the Dodd-Frank financial reforms and others have effectively increased the cost of lending such that it would be akin to a permanent interest rate increase, depressing the economy). People who follow credit theory would see this as blindingly obvious.

31 shhh, palerider you'll scare the markets

32 "new normal"= "hyper stagflation"

33

Stagflation baby!  Embrace the rehashed, re-warmed 70's suck. 

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at June 22, 2011 02:23 PM (9hSKh)

Hey, I'm not feeling lust in my heart ok?

34 Above zero is optimistic,  IMHO.

35

We, with with computers and far more wealth for investment we just shrink phones and speed up porn

Shut the front door!  Fast porn is AWESOME

36
this is what you get when you adopt the same policies as Western Europe.

High unemployment.
Flat-to-anemic growth.
High energy prices.
High food prices.

37 And to provide us with this huge rate of growth Obama only had to borrow 2 trillion from our grandkids. What's not to love.

38 So, how many Obama voters would have voted for him if come Summer 2011;

Real Unemployment was 15-20%
Real Inflation was around 10%
We were in a new war, that wasn't even authorized by congress
The deficit was around $1.7T
etc...

I better hear a lot of, "are you better off then you were 4 years ago" from the republican candidate in 2012...

39 We're going to double dip.  Embrace the suck.

40 "Jaw Dropping!"

41 But it's not really a forecast-forecast.

42 So if Bush were still in office the MFM would definitely be calling this a depression right.

43 I know it's technically a double-dip... but it sure feels more like a bathtub-shaped recession.

44 Obama always embraces the suck. Trust me he has that covered nostradamus. I'm pretty sure you could write an entire quatraon about him sucking something.

45 GDP is increased by increased gov't spending; "+G," says the equation. The sum doesn't have anything to do with "the economy," which is pure liquid shit. GDP without "G" is massively negative. And GDP-without-"G" in light of actual ("shadow") inflation is fuckin' Weimar.

We're in the world's most boring "dead all along" movie.

46 I don't understand. I thought rebounds from recessions were usually in the 5-7% growth range.

Posted by: andycanuck at June 22, 2011 02:25 PM (c5Nbw)

Over 10% for me, baby.

47 DOOM backwards is MOOD. And it's still bad.

48 still say this is the perfect ad campaign song for Obama's economy

http://tinyurl.com/ylp9r96

49

We're in the world's most boring "dead all along" movie.

Posted by: oblig.

 

Oh, we're finding this to be an exciting flick. When's intermission by the way?

50 In a desperate bid to salvage their shredded (and largely mythological) reputation as "experts", economists everywhere are frantically seeking out scrolls used by ancient Romans on the correct forms and proper interpretation of reading entrails ...

51 The Prince of Kenya a mighty nation will try to destroy; the Queen of the North shall cut off his nuts.

52 When the dot.com bubble burst in 2000, I said we should do nothing -- do not lower interest rates.  We tanked them.  When the resulting real estate speculation bubble burst, I said the same thing -- don't do anything.  These things were not caused by structural defects in our capitalist system, they were caused by specific defective policies interfering with our capitalist system.  Here we go again.

Wanna win big in 2012?  Encourage people to get stoned and then show them these stats, charts, and graphs.  Paranoia is a wonderful motivator.

53 He just said "all the economists show a long term projection for unemployment around 5%.

Really, when is that 2050?

Oh wait, no. It's 2012 only if we re-elect his highness, lord king of the dung heap.

54 The chicken never lies!

55 The Economy:  A young boy hitchhiker

Obama:  John Wayne Gacy

56 King Putt Shanks One

57

Now please take out the artificial GDP increase from increases on Government spending (all borrowed money)... and QE2... and the flooding of the Banks with zero interest money from the FED...

And you will suddenly realize we are still at Negative REAL growth.

58 These things were not caused by structural defects in our capitalist system, they were caused by specific defective policies interfering with our capitalist system.

Same with health care.

59 Soothsayer "this is what you get when you adopt the same policies as Western Europe. High unemployment. Flat-to-anemic growth. High energy prices. High food prices. those might be features, not bugs, from our betters perspective.

60 Awwright, The Kinks! You should have gone with Superman though ...

61 Oh, hey, Mrs. North just told me that Shaquille O'Neal has a gigantic penis.

62 The last line of this song, written in 1979, is more apropos than ever before:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1w5vm-Ngho

63 Does anyone know what percent of U.S. farmland is going to be unproductive this year from the flooding?  ...   That isn't going to help GDP OR food prices.

Posted by: palerider at June 22, 2011 02:30 PM (dkExz)

 

Yet monetary policy will still be blamed. 

We're in a balance sheet recession.  Until the private sector is done deleveraging it's going to continue to be bad.  Unfortunately the government has NO IDEAS for increasing private employment, nor for reducing the costs of the inputs to production.  This will only make things worse.  Our policies for handing out unemployment bennies include no requirment to work for them, so work habits errode and soon the long term unemployed will be viewed as unemployable.  The low-level jobs they'll need to get back in the work force will be gone, or else eaten up by imported wage slaves.  Meanwhile the number of people born into poverty will rise and rise, since producing babies is a sure way to get government hand outs. 

64 As I have aged, I too have noticed that my growth rate has been reduced.

65 Oh and here is a classic line;

"This is the worst financial crisis certainly since the Great Depression if not ever in the history of our country".

Sure. Right. Keep floating that turd. Because it's yours, Obama's and the last Democratic Congress response that created this sinkhole.

Yeah and a big assist to Dodd-Frank, CRA, QE I&II, Stimulus, bailouts and potentially new capital standards that will park investment dollars.

66

Posted by: SFGoth at June 22, 2011 02:50 PM (dZ756)

Actualy, there are structural defects in the system.

We are now in a place where WallStreet is not about investing in a company, but betting on the number of winners and losers that day.

Take the oil futures market.... Less than 5% of the oil contracts in the market are ever deliverd... its turned from a way to stabilize prices, to somthing which destabilizes prices...

Capitalisms goal is not just to play with money, but to use it to create other things... but right now the players are in charge and making the rules.

67 I could have sworn that "stagflation" was the sudden onset of tumescence in morons' dangly bits upon viewing pix of Christina Hendricks ...

68
Out: Great Depression
In:   Great Socialist Experiment

69 27 It's starting to feel like rapeflation. Posted by: Bob Saget at June 22, 2011 02:38 PM (F/4zf) Now you know why I took over the IMF.

70 Speaking of jobs and growth, the House is [today] looking at another bill which involves drilling permits.

71 Just heard some Bernanke on the radio saying that they had no idea why the economies poor performance was continuing - and then said but we fully expect it gets better in 2012. So if this genius of finance can't figure out why things are bad *now*, how can he state with confidence that things get better by any particular date? Seriously, he thinks we buy this stuff?

72 The IMF forecast is for less than 3% US GDP growth in 2012. 

73 CBO: Stimulus almost doubled U.S. debt

74 70 Speaking of jobs and growth, the House is [today] looking at another bill which involves drilling permits.

The only thing getting drilled by Obama is us. Up the squeak-hole.

75 The growth rate forecast was always 2.7% - 2.9%

76 Growth created or saved

77 Starvation will bring down obesity.

78 So basically no job for me for the forseeable future. Or for my husband.

And I'd like to thank my ass of a sister. And her jackweed of a husband. And my three retarded nieces and their brain-dead spouses. And my jerkoff next-door neighboor. And my shitbird best friend. And....

79 16 "Catch Me Now I'm Falling" from the same Kinks album might be even more appropriate.

Or anything from Lola v. Powerman. You should get the fuck back in line, and say thank you, motherfuckers

80 76
The original forecasts are accurate until actual data is used.
Posted by: Crosspatch Logic at June 22, 2011 03:08 PM (B4Wbw)

I propose that we adopt a new neologism here - "to crosspatch" - defined as asserting a proposition that is illogically, unexpectedly, and yet unquestionably, true unless and until someone rules, or something demonstrates, that it cannot be true.

I refer now to the source:

57 I wish people would understand one thing.  If you have entered the US without going through proper immigration procedure, you have not committed a crime and you are not here "illegally".  If you are discovered, you are given the opportunity for a hearing before a judge who can either rule that you must leave or that you can stay.

If you have been ordered to leave and you remain or if you have been deported and return without permission, THEN you are an "illegal alien".  If a person has never been ordered to leave or physically deported and returned without permission, they are not "illegal" and have committed no crime.  While they may be detained until their case is heard, they are not considered to have a criminal record simply for having entered the country without following proper procedure.

I see a lot of people referring to individuals who have entered the country the first time as "illegals" and that isn't actually true.  They aren't "illegal" until a judge rules on their case and they defy or ignore the order.  The judge can rule that they can stay.  It is purely at the discretion of the judge hearing the case.

Posted by: crosspatch at June 22, 2011 01:01 PM (ZbLJZ)

81 I burnt out on all that orange

82 Paranoia is a wonderful motivator.Posted by: SFGoth at June 22, 2011 02:50 PM (dZ756)

Not to mention fear and starvation. I want to see thin poor folks running to get a fucking job instead of getting the EBT from the mother fucking couch---- ITS FUCKING MAGIC!11!1!!!!!

83 Obama does not have a chance at this point.  Even a higly optomistic economic recovery will not reset an acceptible unemployment level.  Also when a robust recovery comes we'll be looking at higher inflation. And the housing market has still not reached bottom.   All of Obama's stimulus, the creation of  hyperuncertainty, the decimation of the rule of law, and the pressure of QE 1 and 2 have baked a painful, bumpy recovery. We are now having to to recover from Obama's  policies on top of needing to recover from the original downturn.

Posted by: Minutema at June 22, 2011 03:23 PM (B4Wbw)

Plus I got neither rainbows nor skittles

84 BTW, today is the 70th anniversary of Operation Barbarossa.

85 87
BTW, today is the 70th anniversary of Operation Barbarossa.
Posted by: SFGoth at June 22, 2011 03:29 PM (dZ756)

Who knew that Jane Fonda was that young?

86 BTW, today is the 70th anniversary of Operation Barbarossa.

#Hacked!@

87 89
It's also the 0th anniversary of Operation Crosspatch, one of the gratest achievements of half-baked premises, false assumptions, and screwy logic in the history of Western Civilization.  
Posted by: Minutema at June 22, 2011 03:41 PM (B4Wbw)

Those of us about to crosspatch salute you!

88

June 22 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials said they will maintain record monetary stimulus to support a flagging economic recovery after completing a $600 billion bond-purchase program as scheduled this month.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernake has said record-low interest rates are still needed to spur a recovery that remains “frustratingly slow” two years after the recession ended. Consumer spending has been held back by falling home values, accelerating inflation and an unemployment rate that rose to 9.1 percent last month. At the same time, Bernanke has said growth is likely to pick up as commodity costs recede and factories overcome disruptions of supplies from Japan.

“Recent labor market indicators have been weaker than anticipated,” the statement said. “The slower pace of the recovery reflects in part factors that are likely to be temporary,” such as supply chain disruptions stemming from the March earthquake and tsunami in Japan.

 

This dandy little recovery is just humming along isn't it. A little slow in spots but that's just temporary. That's why they need to keep the stimulus (which hasn't worked to begin with) on

89

There is no inflation (do the Jedi hand wave -- there is no inflation here). They're talking about changing the way is CPI is calculated (again):

       http://tinyurl.com/6eo5kvt

  Remember they've changed it several times since the the stagflation of the 80s. While I believe "inflationsistas" like ShadowStats and so forth are biased a bit toward the high side, there is no question that the current CPI understates inflation. And not they're proposing to understate it even more.

     Any fool knows printing money leads to inflation, so Helicopter, TurboTimmy and the boys will just redefine "inflation" so that it doesn't occur. Prices will still go up, of course and screw us all up the stinkhole, but "inflation" will be low.

     

90 When Ben speaks, the market tanks. I was busy and up until that clown opened his mouth it was a good day. 

91 What kind of moron thinks we're going to see even 2% growth? The last quarter was under 2, what about the economy has gotten better since then??

92 The reality is that this guy was an attention whore begging for a lawsuit and the airline the people around him were smart enough not to take the bait.

If you see someone with their underwear hanging out, say the following words:

-"Excuse me, are you aware there are shit stains on your underwear?  Is that why you leave them hanging out so they can dry from your Hershey squirts?"

93 I doesn't matter what they SAY the economy is growing at - people pay attention to what they see. We can make those numbers of 'growth' say anything we want because, hey, the media won't call them on the bullshit.

However, what people see and experience are VERY real to them. We won't see 3% growth or 2% growth, but they'll manipulate the numbers, just like the inflation indices, to make them look good.

At the end of the day, people will see food prices and energy prices eating away at their budgets, all while worried if they will have a job tomorrow or a week or month from now.

That's all that matters.

The media beat on BOOOSSSHHHH!!!! for 8 damn years. I believe they just wore everyone down. Had it not been for a concerted *conspiracy* of the left and media (but I repeat myself), Obama wouldn't have made it out of the primaries.

IMO, Obama will not run for a second term. Turns out the job, even with all of his vacations, is too much like work.

JEF doesn't do work.

That's for the serfs.

94 "JEF doesn't do work.
That's for the serfs."
///
Ivy-League graduates with stellar grades and dynamic theses shouldn't have to work.

95

Someone above made a point that needs to be emphasized. Without the "G" in the GDP equation, growth would be massively negative. It would be no-question-about-it "D" = depression vs R = "recession". (Hey, maybe that's the way the old saw about dems going to hell at 130MPH vs repubs going to hell at a nice reasonable speed. Dems = depression, Repubs = recession).

    We've been living a false prosperity based on debt for over a decade (house value goes up, take out home equity loan, blow it). The consumer/private sector has now tapped out on taking on more debt. So enter the "G" to take up the batton of borrowing and keep the heroin binge going. And the necessary borrowing is so great the market can't support it, requiring printing from the Fed to sustain it leading to inflation and dollar debauchery.

      If we stop the G, we immediately go into a  depression.  This is like the heroin addict/drunk stopping the smack/booze. It's bad and painful. But if we keep up the smack/booze, we don't feel so bad *now*, but we soon die.

96 sorry wrong thread

97 Bernake got on the ship of state wearing only a bra and chaps?