January 18, 2011
— Geoff A friend of mine sent me this graph from Societe Generale, via the Business Insider. Unfortunately he couldn't give me a link to the original source, so all we've got is the graph itself. But it's pretty interesting:So the upshot is, if you overlay Japan from 15 years ago with the US today, you find a strong correlation between the size of the working population and the price of real estate, and between the histories of the two countries. Since our working population is projected to decline, if we continue to follow Japan's experience, our real estate prices will drop as well.
Not a happy prospect, but possibly useful in your financial planning.
Posted by: Geoff at
08:44 AM
| Comments (77)
Post contains 132 words, total size 1 kb.
Far different immigration realities. Japan is dying off, America+Mexico is growing.
Yet our working age population is still forecasted to decrease. As shown.
Posted by: geoff at January 18, 2011 09:21 AM (1DvsG)
Is that a decrease-decrease, or the continued number-fudging to avoid acknowledging 20% unemployment?
Posted by: Methos at January 18, 2011 09:25 AM (Ew1k4)
Posted by: geoff at January 18, 2011 01:21 PM (1DvsG)
That's a false comparison if our own poplulation increases though. Because someone retires doesn't mean they start living in a tent. At least not yet.
Posted by: robtr at January 18, 2011 09:27 AM (hVDig)
Posted by: George Orwell at January 18, 2011 09:28 AM (AZGON)
um, never mind.
Posted by: pep at January 18, 2011 09:29 AM (GMG6W)
Any way you look at it you all are going to miss us and our crazy spending!
Thanks for paying for our health care too! Love ya, Peace Out!
Posted by: The Baby Boomers at January 18, 2011 09:30 AM (JpFM9)
Posted by: GadsdenBC at January 18, 2011 09:30 AM (3h1BF)
Posted by: t-bird at January 18, 2011 09:30 AM (FcR7P)
There is a guy who predicts that stock market based on how many people are age 49 at any given time, because that's when people think, hey, I better start saving for retirement. Historically he's pretty accurate.
Posted by: PJ at January 18, 2011 09:30 AM (QdxaI)
Posted by: George Orwell at January 18, 2011 09:34 AM (AZGON)
Being at the end of the baby boom sucks in comparison to being at the front of the baby boom. Hind teat really bites.
Posted by: Tigtog at January 18, 2011 09:35 AM (Q5+Og)
Posted by: Dr Spank at January 18, 2011 09:36 AM (1fB+3)
Posted by: Quilly Mammoth at January 18, 2011 09:37 AM (PbJQo)
Posted by: George Orwell at January 18, 2011 09:37 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: dagny at January 18, 2011 09:37 AM (oceiy)
Because the dollar will drop faster...
(Unless you mean "adjusted prices", then yeah.... but that is a good thing.)
Posted by: Kasepr Hauser at January 18, 2011 09:38 AM (HqpV0)
Anyone can see that.
Posted by: Original Mikey is now Uncle Mikey at January 18, 2011 09:39 AM (+N0sE)
...oh, and count on the left to continue to target the value of the assets held by the 'haves'. It plays to their ends.
Posted by: garrett at January 18, 2011 09:41 AM (Hvvo5)
Posted by: joncelli at January 18, 2011 09:41 AM (RD7QR)
Posted by: t-bird at January 18, 2011 09:41 AM (FcR7P)
Posted by: George Orwell at January 18, 2011 09:41 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: Ted Kennedy's Gristle Encased Head at January 18, 2011 09:43 AM (+lsX1)
Posted by: George Orwell at January 18, 2011 09:43 AM (AZGON)
The concept makes sense. Fewer working people means fewer people with enough cash to pay a high price for real estate, no matter what the overall population is. Many immigrant groups seem to have no problem living 50 to a house, so they really don't increase demand the way domestically born people do. People born here expect to live like human beings rather than like cows packed into a feed lot. I'd rather be put against the wall and shot than live in some efficiency apartment with my entire extended family and their mewling brats.
In the mean time, what's to be done? Should I sell my house and live in the street because the value will go down? We simply need to accept that housing is not an investment - it's an expense. It is not a productive asset.
Posted by: Reactionary at January 18, 2011 09:43 AM (xUM1Q)
Oddly, she's resistant. Maybe if I promised a double-wide?
Double wide with a deck. I think there is even a country song to that effect.
Posted by: dagny at January 18, 2011 09:45 AM (oceiy)
Posted by: dagny at January 18, 2011 01:37 PM (oceiy)
It isn't what individual owns any rental unit at one time that determines value. Value is based on whether there is a need for the rental unit. Rents are going up, apartment builders are gearing up to build more apartments. That is because there is a demand, a demand created by people who aren't buying houses.
The government has prolonged the housing crisis and made it worse by propping up real estate prices. I say made it worse because instead of the market finding a bottom quickly and rebounding the government has kept it in limbo which has sidelined 20% of the economy, the construction industy. It's been a catch 22, the economy won't recover without contruction and construction won't start until the market finds a bottom.
Posted by: robtr at January 18, 2011 09:48 AM (hVDig)
This will lead to house destruction (ala Detroit) and lower govt services (ala Detroit). In short, we're boned.
stolen from ZH:
The Congressional Budget Office is now forecasting that, with the current spending trajectory and the new tax compromise, total debt will reach $23 trillion by 2020, or some 160% of todayÂ’s GDP, 1.6 times the WWII peak.
By then, the Treasury will have to pay a staggering $5 trillion a year just to roll over maturing debt. WhatÂ’s more, these figures greatly understate the severity of the problem. They do not include another $9 trillion in debts guaranteed by the federal government, such as bonds issued by home mortgage providers, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. State and local governments owe another $3 trillion. Double interest rates, a certainty if the current commodity price inflation continues, and our debt service burden doubles as well.
Posted by: Guy Fawkes at January 18, 2011 09:49 AM (xdHzq)
Posted by: Hippie-Dippy Talking Point at January 18, 2011 09:52 AM (BP6Z1)
"Most American families are replacing themselves."
Imagine where would be if income taxes allowed the actual living expenses for a human to be deducted against gross income for a dependent. Simple way to compute annual living expenses is use welfare pay outs per person. That would have incentivized rather than decentivized children in the US. I wonder why we didn't do it?
Posted by: Tigtog at January 18, 2011 09:52 AM (Q5+Og)
That's a false comparison if our own poplulation increases though. Because someone retires doesn't mean they start living in a tent. At least not yet.
Posted by: robtr at January 18, 2011 01:27 PM (hVDig)
< Teh, heh.
Posted by: journolist at January 18, 2011 09:55 AM (LwLqV)
"Being at the end of the baby boom sucks in comparison to being at the front of the baby boom. Hind teat really bites. "
Couldn't agree with you more. I"ve compared it to being the last locust in a swarm - not much left after the main body scours the landscape clean. On the gripping hand, though, I look at what earlier generations went through, the Great Depression (The real one), and buck up a bit. It could be worse. Of course, it will be, just when we are least able to cope with it. Oh, well, that's life.
Posted by: West at January 18, 2011 09:57 AM (xEDKR)
http://www.businessinsider.com/pictures-chinese-ghost-cities-2010-12
Posted by: George Orwell at January 18, 2011 01:41 PM (AZGON)
--Interesting, but the title is misleading. I was expecting cool shots of rural communities depopulated by migrants going to the coastal cities.
"Ghost town" implies a one-living locale now vacant. These I would call "shell cities/towns," vacant buildings and cities still seeking their first occupants.
Posted by: logprof at January 18, 2011 09:58 AM (BP6Z1)
Posted by: beedubya at January 18, 2011 09:58 AM (AnTyA)
Yet our working age population is still forecasted to decrease. As shown.
Don't worry, I will make sure that does not matter.....
Posted by: Stagflation at January 18, 2011 09:58 AM (ujg0T)
Posted by: Tigtog at January 18, 2011 01:52 PM (Q5+Og)
That would prevent the government from sucking taxes out of the productive folk. Thus, it doesn't fit with the plan. The only children the Great Society supporters wanted to incentivize are the children of the dependancy class, the welfare scum. Thus, the US is increasingly over run with bastards from the slums.
In any case, once you have money, children are no longer the top priority. All developed nations that start to become rich see reproduction fall off, which is as it should be. There's too much nice stuff to do and to spend money on without burning up your wealth and sanity on ungrateful brats. The breeding of piles of new humans has always been the job of the poor - no doubt because they're so good at it, and because those with resources always seem to eager to pay them to do it.
Posted by: Reactionary at January 18, 2011 09:59 AM (xUM1Q)
Clearly, the Obama Administration and other Democrats want to keep unemployment in this country high. It serves their agenda, fertilizing the garden for Communism with agitation and discontent..
Evidence of which is that, just as the Clinton Administration did, also, the Obama Administration now wants to transfer the bulk of the aerospace industry and its related military-industrial complex to China, which will lead to huge job losses at Boeing Aircraft and at Airbus and with their subsidiaries and supporting affiliates, also. But the MSM isn't reporting that.
Democrat politicians and their shills in the MSM can not be trusted to protect this country. They are that irrational, that irresponsible, that sleazy and that dangerous.
Posted by: Brian at January 18, 2011 09:59 AM (sYrWB)
In Japan the real estate bubble was built on a false premise of bank lending. In the U.S. real estate bubble in a lot of locations was built on green laws and speculation, aided and abetted by stupid government policy and regulation.
For most parts of the country (again the flyover country) there was no real estate boom and there has been no bust.
Posted by: Vic at January 18, 2011 10:00 AM (M9Ie6)
Posted by: Johann Sebastian Bach at January 18, 2011 10:01 AM (BP6Z1)
Yeah, I've been saying this for a while. Look at your home--if you can't see an illegal immigrant being able to afford it in the next 20 years, you're going to take a bath on it.
Being on the tail end of the Boom will benefit us in one way--an oversupply of retirement homes. Wait until the last minute to invest in one and the waning demand should keep your codger-shack reasonable.
Posted by: spongeworthy at January 18, 2011 10:02 AM (rplL3)
Posted by: George Orwell at January 18, 2011 10:06 AM (AZGON)
the Obama Administration now wants to transfer the bulk of the aerospace industry and its related military-industrial complex to China, which will lead to huge job losses at Boeing Aircraft and at Airbus and with their subsidiaries and supporting affiliates, also. But the MSM isn't reporting that.
Posted by: Brian at January 18, 2011 01:59 PM (sYrWB)
Sickening, but not surprising. Alas - the pols on our side are no better. They poured that "free trade" honey in our ears for years, while watching industry move out for greener pastures with cheaper wage slaves. If only free trade had actually been tried at some point, we could see whether it really works. Alas, no such luck. Just last year China passed a law mandating that companies relocate R&D to their country or face penalties - we did nothing in response. So - all those high skilled jobs, all that R&D which was supposed to keep our economy afloat, is also being outsourced.
Until employment improves there will be no housing recovery. And sadly, I don't think that moving all the manufacturing and research to the 3rd world is going to let us all become artists, massage therapists, and paper pushers of various stripes. It will just leave us with little to do, and vanishingly little to buy those "cheap" imports with.
Posted by: Reactionary at January 18, 2011 10:07 AM (xUM1Q)
Posted by: Johann Sebastian Bach at January 18, 2011 02:01 PM (BP6Z1)
Merely an exception to prove the rule.
Posted by: Reactionary at January 18, 2011 10:08 AM (xUM1Q)
Posted by: George Orwell at January 18, 2011 10:09 AM (AZGON)
Merely an exception to prove the rule.
Posted by: Reactionary at January 18, 2011 02:08 PM (xUM1Q)
--Depends on the age and society. Victorian England saw a population boom among all the classes.
Posted by: logprof at January 18, 2011 10:12 AM (BP6Z1)
"Couldn't agree with you more. I"ve compared it to being the last locust in a swarm - not much left after the main body scours the landscape clean. "
Its not that the landscape is bare, but that it was always overpriced relative to the buble in the demographic pyramid. The worst part was promotions. The higher the tax rates the longer your elders stayed in place. Kind of puts a kink in upward mobility.
Posted by: Tigtog at January 18, 2011 10:12 AM (Q5+Og)
They poured that "free trade" honey in our ears for years, while watching industry move out for greener pastures with cheaper wage slaves.
And yet how much of the cost of labor is due to taxation? Mandates? Don't let the Demunists get away with their rhetoric about "exported jobs"--if anyone did that, they did, with their business bashing and corporate tax rates that are among the world's highest.
You may have noticed how businesses don't move to Venezuela, where commie bandito Chavez will steal from them, or to muslimworld, where they will be blown up, or to Outer Mongola, where there is no infrastructure.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at January 18, 2011 10:15 AM (ujg0T)
Posted by: Vashta Nerada at January 18, 2011 10:15 AM (0Jb7F)
Go long beans and bullets, 'cause we're boned.
Posted by: that guy that always thinks we're boned at January 18, 2011 10:16 AM (S5YRY)
Posted by: Brian at January 18, 2011 10:23 AM (sYrWB)
Posted by: ParisParamus at January 18, 2011 10:24 AM (Q16sd)
The hidden truth in that graph is how it looks like a naked dude with his ass in the air-
SRSLY folx if you think all these immigrants of color are gonna pay for the retirements of a bunch of predominantly white people you don't know them very well. They're being brought up on "social justice"...
Posted by: DAve at January 18, 2011 10:25 AM (tG4br)
"Bernanke lives in Washington's Capitol Hill area in a four- bedroom, 2,600-square-foot house he bought new in May 2004 for $839,000. Almost four years later, it may not be worth any more, according to real estate records and local agents.
Bernanke's timing wasn't the best -- values in the area peaked a year later -- and he is hardly alone among Americans living in an investment hat's turned cold."this is from 2008 and I'm hearing that DC, Maryland and Virginia real estate values are going gangbusters but it always worried me that he would buy at the top of the bubble.
Posted by: curious at January 18, 2011 10:25 AM (p302b)
And yet how much of the cost of labor is due to taxation? Mandates? ... You may have noticed how businesses don't move to Venezuela, where commie bandito Chavez will steal from them, or to muslimworld, where they will be blown up, or to Outer Mongola, where there is no infrastructure.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at January 18, 2011 02:15 PM (ujg0T)
Yes - our taxes and regulation play a part. No doubt about it. But even so, there are significant trade barriers constructed by our so-called partners that make this nearly moot. For example, China's legal barriers, tech theft, mandate to "partner" with local companies, and overt currency manipulation. Mexico is now putting tarrifs back up, because they're pissed we don't give them free access to our highways, so even NAFTA is increasingly a one-way street. We have done almost nothing to respond, until our own recent competitive currency devaluations. That's not an optimal solution, of course, because it's a wage cut for Americans.
And yes - rule of law & infrastructure is sure nice to have. But India, China, South Korea, Viet Nam, and others have enough civic order to make lots of business men quite comfortable with building there.
Posted by: Reactionary at January 18, 2011 10:26 AM (xUM1Q)
Posted by: Jean at January 18, 2011 10:28 AM (CPefM)
Posted by: ParisParamus at January 18, 2011 02:24 PM (Q16sd)
You have to include hard assets and goodwill as well. A company's book value is merely the market value, and this number is divided by shares outstanding to get a per share price. The assumption being that with the most perfect information (all buyers and sellers), this is what the company is worth, dividend or no dividend.
Posted by: Vashta Nerada at January 18, 2011 10:35 AM (0Jb7F)
Posted by: Jean at January 18, 2011 10:40 AM (CPefM)
Because someone retires doesn't mean they start living in a tent.
Yes, but they're also likely to have:
- a paid off home
- paid off cars
- all the consumer goods needed for a comfortable life
Other than the occasional new roof, HVAC unit or household and consumer goods replacement, the number of major purchases for retirees pretty much consist of newer cars, health care costs not covered by others, long term nursing or retirement homes, and funeral expenditures.
Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie © at January 18, 2011 10:44 AM (1hM1d)
Posted by: Gerald P. Hanner at January 18, 2011 10:48 AM (YeVjL)
Yes, but it mirrors/parallels the value; it isn't the actual value. But hey, I still don't get how money is more than a form of mass psychosis.
On that note, check out "The Invention of Money, a This American Life podcast (search iTunes). Very interesting, and not tinged with TAL's leftish political spin.
Posted by: ParisParamus at January 18, 2011 10:51 AM (Q16sd)
Posted by: Brian at January 18, 2011 10:54 AM (sYrWB)
... there doesn't seem to be any real pipe connecting the two!
The above explanations are good, but it helps to think of it this way: Maybe the company doesn't pay a dividend, but what would the company be worth if they did? Partly because they could at any time and partly because it's capacity to pay a dividend is indicative of it's cash flow.
Posted by: spongeworthy at January 18, 2011 10:54 AM (rplL3)
I'm not sure if I'm overthinking this one, or that everyone else underthinks the subject...
Posted by: ParisParamus at January 18, 2011 10:57 AM (Q16sd)
I heard this the other day from Donald Trump. He was on some radio talk show and he was saying that and the host was shocked. Trump was advocating that we make everyone we help pay us for the help. He also discussed this whole Panama Canal business.
Geez were people awake in the 70's?
Posted by: curious at January 18, 2011 11:07 AM (p302b)
oddly enough business insider has had a lot of articles lately discussing this.
Posted by: curious at January 18, 2011 11:08 AM (p302b)
The stock certificate signifies actual ownership of assets and income. It isn't the piece of paper that is important, but the contract of ownership that it represents.
Posted by: iknowtheleft at January 18, 2011 03:07 PM (G/MYk)
yes, which is why a contract is so important and people shriek when they aren't honored.
Posted by: curious at January 18, 2011 11:09 AM (p302b)
Yep yep yep. Western civilization's best days are behind us. We are essentially a society that doesn't produce anything, that shifts around capital in order to make it look like we're working, and that lives off debt and fake wealth created by bubbles. Thing is, there aren't any more bubbles. That means that we're in for a slow decline, followed by a public outcry, as there won't be any more money in the coffers to pay for semi-permanent unemployment, health care for everyone, and thirty years of retirement benefits for a third of the population. Oh, and did we mention that increasing immigration is off limits because nobody wants those dastardly immigrants to take non-existent American jobs? Then comes the day of reckoning, as a silver tongued autocrat who makes Obama look like a puppy promises to fix everything if we just sign away our freedom.
This is how every free society dies. We're watching history in the making.
Posted by: Keith at January 18, 2011 11:14 AM (0j3Wv)
Really? 1/4?! More and more I'm getting the impression that we all live in, or at least I live in a parallel universe that isn't quite the same as everyone else's. Oy, no wonder I feel so lonely so often.
(above, it was green and white paper, if that wasn't obvious...)
Posted by: ParisParamus at January 18, 2011 11:39 AM (Q16sd)
Posted by: Jean at January 18, 2011 02:40 PM (CPefM)
And as long as inflation is kept low enough to be managed, this is the best approach. 5% or 6% inflation is not good, but it's tolerable. We've had it that bad and done OK. It's when you get 70's style double-digit inflation, and double digit interest rates, that things get dicey.
The modern situation is a difficult one. We really don't need everyone to work in order to produce all we need, and vastly more. If we really did productively employ everyone for 8+ hours per day the overproduction of goods and services would be massive. By the same token, paying people to not work is even worse. Europe's solution, cutting the work hours per person, would work fine in a closed system - spreading the available work over more folk than really are needed. But the external competition from people who will work 16 hours per day for next to nothing makes this approach unworkable. To complicate that, there are lots of people who are too stupid to employ in anything more complex than digging holes and filling them back in. Those people are a drag on the economy even if they work - almost as bad as when they're idle. What to do there? Difficult issues...
Posted by: Reactionary at January 18, 2011 11:54 AM (xUM1Q)
Posted by: curious at January 18, 2011 03:07 PM (p302b)
That question could apply to the 90's, too.
Under the Clinton Administration, the Communist Chinese received contracts to open an expanded, new shipping port in Long Beach, California, depriving unionized American longshoremen of those jobs, and opening a potential naval base for the Communist Chinese right here in this country. Another story that the MSM didn't report, too preoccupied with gossiping about Monica and Paula. Suffice to say, the MSM isn't worth a shit.
Posted by: Brian at January 18, 2011 11:58 AM (sYrWB)
Posted by: BillyBob at January 18, 2011 12:02 PM (F0Pf9)
One of the worst things about housing price declines is how PROPERTY TAX RATES are ratcheted up to ensure there is NEVER a way for people to pay less in taxes even on houses which have declined in value. Because local gov'ts are going to keep spending more, recessions or not.
Reactionary is dead-on right: view housing is an expense, not an investment. The die-off of the baby boomers will starve the market of cash for family housing for decades, and tract developments will turn quickly to slums for squatters.
Only the high end of the housing market will rise in value, because owners will wisely retreat behind the gates of their cul-de-sacs.
Posted by: Kortezzi at January 18, 2011 12:17 PM (zAZNI)
Posted by: A.G. at January 18, 2011 12:23 PM (oAVyq)
Housing prices are down in a few areas. Over the past year they have only declined greatly in few select areas. Most places they have not declined at all because they never had the huge speculation fueled bubble taking them up.
There are a few places where the prices have dropped a bunch through no fault of a bubble collapse. They have dropped because banks loaned out money to people who could not pay it back and the local market has been distorted by a large number of homes in default. That will not take long to correct itself.
As for the "passing of the baby boomer" bulge effecting prices I wouldn't count on that too much. In fact, if you look at long term housing prices and the overall trend average you will find that they are actually an accurate measure of real inflation.
The old adage of housing prices being about location, location, location is still true.
Posted by: Vic at January 18, 2011 12:28 PM (M9Ie6)
Posted by: dscott at January 18, 2011 12:36 PM (gaD9p)
Posted by: hair extensions suppliers at January 18, 2011 01:41 PM (tpvde)
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Posted by: t-bird at January 18, 2011 09:19 AM (FcR7P)