Ace of Spades HQ

October 18, 2012

18% of Iowans have voted
— CAC

Not 34%, 18%. Which means the Marist finding (just like the Ohio one) is horseshit.

18%. Take your eyeballs over to the Secretary of States' website which shows a total of 284,000 in. Unless 2012 turnout is going to crash to unbelievable levels (was 1.5 million in 08, just under that in 04), that is 18%.

Demographic breakdown:
Democrats have a 54,000 vote edge, 49.4% to R's 30.3%, meaning Obama must be running better than 7/8ths of the Independent vote to approach your "35 point margin". In fact, the Democratic "advantage" so far matches the 2004 "advantage", a race they lost by over 10,000 votes.

Facts are a shitty thing when you are desperately clinging to the narrative.
For those fact-checkers out there, go ahead and look at the numbers reported by the Secretary of State. I'm not pulling stats out of my butt like, obviously, Marist. That statistic of "1/3 in and its 2/3 Obama !!!" will be repeated ad naseum as truth, when it is bogus and easily disproven. Let's see how many actually bother to fact-check it. I'm not holding my breath.

Posted by: CAC at 02:50 PM | Comments (141)
Post contains 195 words, total size 1 kb.

1 1st

Posted by: eureka! at October 18, 2012 02:51 PM (cTjRR)

2 Nice stomp, Meatball.

Posted by: eureka! at October 18, 2012 02:51 PM (cTjRR)

3 All these numbers frighten and confuse me.

Posted by: toby928© denounces himself so you don't have to at October 18, 2012 02:51 PM (QupBk)

4 I would have been first, but I posted a complete sentence.

Posted by: toby928© denounces himself so you don't have to at October 18, 2012 02:52 PM (QupBk)

5 Thank you for showing the obvious. PPP has tweeted that their Iowa numbers look nothing like this NBC/Marist junk, and Jay Cost has pointed out that Obama wouldn't be in Iowa if he was ahead by 8. duh.

Posted by: Justin at October 18, 2012 02:52 PM (g+QII)

6 There you go again, harshing on all the trolls. Cruel, I tell you.

Posted by: George Orwell what knows 47% got a fever and Uncle Sugar is the only cure at October 18, 2012 02:52 PM (AZGON)

7 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at October 18, 2012 02:53 PM (6o4Fb)

8 have the 47% voted yet?

Posted by: Joe Le Big Fuckin Deal Biden, Lover of WYMEN and Undercover Romney Campaign Surrogate at October 18, 2012 02:54 PM (ovpNn)

9 As POTUS would say: "not optimal".

Posted by: Jon Stewart at October 18, 2012 02:54 PM (OiC7K)

10 Based on the very latest news and my very finest VaporStatsTM, my models prove that Obama and the Yankees are both over 70% bets to win it all this year.

Posted by: Nate Silver at October 18, 2012 02:54 PM (khZbv)

11 CAC - Why don't you run the number on Ohio early voting as well. Give some perspective to those who don't understand why Romney is doing much better than the polls would suggest.

Posted by: JackStraw at October 18, 2012 02:54 PM (TMB3S)

12 so...? yay? whew, party time!

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at October 18, 2012 02:54 PM (QxSug)

13 I want a New Iphone 5 And i am willing to trade my vote for it!

Posted by: Typical 47%er at October 18, 2012 02:54 PM (ovpNn)

14 OT.... sorta.... headline at Drudge OBAMA ON COMEDY CENTRAL: 'WHEN FOUR AMERICANS GET KILLED, IT'S NOT OPTIMAL' Im not sure which is worse.... what he said, or that he's been reduced to The View, Letterman and Comedy Central.

Posted by: fixerupper at October 18, 2012 02:55 PM (ffV1/)

15 Iowa is the ancestral home of the carny race.

Posted by: toby928© denounces himself so you don't have to at October 18, 2012 02:55 PM (QupBk)

16 I think libs are starting to accept reality. I heard NBC "news radio" reporting bad news today... and what's more they were reporting it with the glee only reserved for bad news under R presidents. Getting started early...

Posted by: The Mega Independent at October 18, 2012 02:55 PM (6JMZR)

17 Ahhh, Iowa, the capital of Canada. Beautiful place.

Posted by: Barky McFucknut at October 18, 2012 02:55 PM (jKE+Z)

18 wasn't there a story about all the somalis and kenyans that we're now dumping to Iowa, causing trouble? 100K a month adds up, especially in a state where we only won by 10K.

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at October 18, 2012 02:55 PM (QxSug)

19 can someone explain exactly what the R+2 or D+9 actually mean? I need the executive explaination (simple please)

Posted by: CheshireLion at October 18, 2012 02:55 PM (zNDIM)

20 Come in Ohio !!!!!! Wake up and see that to have any hope of a future for your children ,Ohio must vote for Romney and Ryan in Nov. 6 2012!!!!!!!!! Come on Ohio !!!!!!!

Posted by: grumpy momma bear at October 18, 2012 02:56 PM (aWPTe)

21 How long is Nate Silver going to keep this up? Is this a one-time thing for him?

I think we're finding out that Nate is the proverbial stopped watch.

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 18, 2012 02:56 PM (4+LTj)

22 Why would NBC fudge the numbers?

Posted by: Romney Loses My Asshole at October 18, 2012 02:56 PM (/YJYi)

23 I'm pretty sure Choomy thought there would be no math during his term.

Posted by: docj at October 18, 2012 02:56 PM (V20sy)

24 I just like the whole process of going to the polls and voting. Mailing my vote in just doesn't seem patriotic. I think a lot of Republicans feel the same way. Early Democrat voters just mean fewer late Democrat voters.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 18, 2012 02:56 PM (hlUJY)

25 @19, that was funny no matter the sock it's attacked to.

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at October 18, 2012 02:56 PM (QxSug)

26 Suck it, Greg.

Posted by: logprof at October 18, 2012 02:56 PM (jKE+Z)

27 Nothing like an election to remind me how much I hate Iowa.

(But have we seen this? http://www.jjscheckel.com/RRDozerTour.htm)

Posted by: HeatherRadish™, predenounced for your convenience at October 18, 2012 02:56 PM (/kI1Q)

#12

The numbers in Ohio are just over 8% in.

Not 18%, 8.

Also Survey USA found that 18% crap on Monday- after PPP and Marist already had days earlier. Obviously with tens of thousands of votes that flooded into the offices in Ohio thru tuesday (when the SOS of Ohio updated his survey), should be seeing numbers apppprooooaching the findings of the poll- but no. Still only 407,000 votes out of about 5.7 to 5.8million that will likely be so through Election Day.

But this is all they have left. Why report real numbers when you can pull something out of your ass?

Posted by: CAC at October 18, 2012 02:56 PM (h/SgZ)

OK so that's what they did.

Iowa voting heavily favours Dems = let's weight our poll with TWICE as many early voters!!

Nobody will EVER see through our brilliant scheme ha ha.....wait, what?

Posted by: AussieMarcus at October 18, 2012 02:57 PM (EwxYH)

look guys. its simple. Marist has been upfront (and has been arrogant in doing so) that they expect a D 08 electorate. They have said so openly and publicly. They have even taken shot at Republicans. TheyÂ’re sticking to the theory and will sink or swim w/ it. Ill remind everyone this shows that even if the 08 electorate showed up O is having trouble matching his performance in IA & WI that he had in 08.

Posted by: AuthorLMeAuthorLMendez, Head Of The Projection Desk (O 290, R 248)look guys. its simple. Marist has at October 18, 2012 02:57 PM (90MP9)

31 can someone explain exactly what the R+2 or D+9 actually mean? I need the executive explaination (simple please)

It's the balance of the poll sample. If 30% of your sample is R, and 28% is D (and the rest I's), that's R+2.

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 18, 2012 02:57 PM (4+LTj)

32 Guy Benson ‏@guypbenson

Just spoke to Susquehanna's chief pollster in PA. Says the Romney 49 - Obama 45 poll is based on 1,376 LV with a D+6 sample.

Posted by: Othered at October 18, 2012 02:57 PM (EuW9O)

33 runninrebel: How long is Nate Silver going to keep this up? Is this a one-time thing for him?

I've been wondering this too.

I think it will go on for the next 19.31 days with a likelihood of 98.7364559274645 %

Posted by: Uriah Heep at October 18, 2012 02:58 PM (jhI6f)

34 Why report real numbers when you can pull something out of your ass? For sport.

Posted by: George Orwell what knows 47% got a fever and Uncle Sugar is the only cure at October 18, 2012 02:58 PM (AZGON)

35 Iowa is the ancestral home of the carny race.

I love Iowa, the "Famous Potatoes" state.

Posted by: Joe Biden at October 18, 2012 02:58 PM (HtUdo)

36 my handle got messed up there LOL

Posted by: AuthorLMendez, Head Of The Projection Desk (O 290, R 248) at October 18, 2012 02:58 PM (90MP9)

37 So does this mean Obama isn't winning either Iwoa OR Oiho??

Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at October 18, 2012 02:58 PM (/LkSO)

38 And come on Iowa !!!!!!! Wake up and vote for Romney and Ryan on Nov. 6 2012 !!!!!!!!

Posted by: grumpy momma bear at October 18, 2012 02:59 PM (aWPTe)

October Announcement: Surprise! We will guarantee world peace if only you re-elect your apprentice SCOAMF.

I'm the Supreme Caliph Of All Moslem Faithful, and I approve this message.

Posted by: Ahmadinejab at October 18, 2012 02:59 PM (khZbv)

40 Why would NBC fudge the numbers?

Uh, because they're in the tank for Smokey McChoomPrompter. It's really not any more complicated than that.

Posted by: docj at October 18, 2012 02:59 PM (V20sy)

41 I ain't brAgging, but I'm prett sure I was an early user of: FINISH HIM Not sure how to check...Paul Ryan needs to hit Janesville, Geneva and northern Illinois to get these cocksuckers on the run. Finish him (thank you Clint Eastwood)

Posted by: TheThinMan at October 18, 2012 02:59 PM (v2S39)

42 How soon before the pollsters need to get accurate to save face and get jobs next time around? Or can they shoot a poll out the day before the election and call it good?

Posted by: Red Shirt at October 18, 2012 02:59 PM (FIDMq)

43 Just spoke to Susquehanna's chief pollster in PA. Says the Romney 49 - Obama 45 poll is based on 1,376 LV with a D+6 sample. Eh? SRSLY? There's a-gonna be some tears.

Posted by: George Orwell what knows 47% got a fever and Uncle Sugar is the only cure at October 18, 2012 02:59 PM (AZGON)

44 Just spoke to Susquehanna's chief pollster in PA.
Says the Romney 49 - Obama 45 poll is based on 1,376 LV with a D+6 sample. Posted by: Othered

Which means Romney's actually up 51 to O's 42?

SUCK ON THAT, GERG!

Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at October 18, 2012 02:59 PM (qrpxS)

45 I have been saying that this is going to be a 40 state landslide for Romney for months. I think realistically, it'll be 37-13 or 38-12 (plus DC) and Romney wins more than 340 EVs.

Posted by: Truman North at October 18, 2012 03:00 PM (I2LwF)

46 Really? The Ohio returns seemed to be real. The theory disproving the 19% that have voted focused on absentee, not early votes. Apples to oranges. Even so the math doesn't really add up.

Posted by: MJ at October 18, 2012 03:00 PM (TR60b)

47 Six outs to go, Tigers. Put those fucking Yankees away, please.

Posted by: logprof at October 18, 2012 03:00 PM (jKE+Z)

Have they actually COUNTED these votes? 'Cuz I kinda was under the impression that they aren't "official" until Election Day.

And who's to say that the "Democrat" ballots actually have a vote for Obama on them? Isn't it possible that some of those voters changed their mind and voted for Romney?

Party affiliation only matters in the primaries; the general election is open to all....

Posted by: Teresa in Fort Worth, TX at October 18, 2012 03:00 PM (P6H+d)

49 How soon before the pollsters need to get accurate to save face and get jobs next time around?

I'm thinking they could wait until after the 3rd debate, and play it as a shift based on that.

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 18, 2012 03:00 PM (4+LTj)

50 Jay Cost is pretty much destroying Marist/NBC over on Twitter. They had the generic ballot as Even in 2010 and bombed badly in 2004....common theme both time were GOP victories. NBC is "all in" for their Hero.

Posted by: jjshaka at October 18, 2012 03:01 PM (kN12E)

51 D:

Posted by: Greg's Ass at October 18, 2012 03:01 PM (3ziXJ)

52 I just ran the numbers on the PPP Ohio poll. Using their methodology of 19% early voting with 74% going for Obama and the remaining 81% of the total going for Romney at a 51-45 clip, the model states that Obama will be beat Romney by a higher margin than he beat McCain. I used the 2008 voter turnout which I highly doubt will be as favorable as it was to Obama. The total vote margin predicted by this model for this year is 282,000 votes. In 2008 it was 262,000. Do we really believe Obama is going to do better this time around? Not bloody likely.

Posted by: MJ at October 18, 2012 03:02 PM (TR60b)

53 How soon before the pollsters need to get accurate to save face and get jobs next time around? Perhaps never. Look, many media enterprises are devoted to only delivering gospel, the stuff their clients want to hear, like (MS)NBC, and the Old Haggard Grey Lady. Perhaps in the future some polling outfits will do the same; specialize in providing results the client wants, so the client can flog it as "truth."

Posted by: George Orwell what knows 47% got a fever and Uncle Sugar is the only cure at October 18, 2012 03:03 PM (AZGON)

54 Re: sasquatch party split. Well, if it's a blue state then some form of D+ something is proper, so is D+6 too high or too low for PA? Holy f***** s*** so, even with d+6, R is up 3?????? I mean, how D+? is PA? Not d+9 right?

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at October 18, 2012 03:03 PM (QxSug)

55 Home run. Tigers 7 Yankees 1.

Posted by: logprof at October 18, 2012 03:03 PM (jKE+Z)

56 Is Iowa America's Scotland? Full of dole denizens and subsidy suckers? I can't figure out why at this point there'd so many Democrats there otherwise.

Posted by: JEM at October 18, 2012 03:04 PM (o+SC1)

57 Come on, romneyLosesInsertHere. It won't hurt as much as you think. Nah... yes it will.

Posted by: George Orwell what knows 47% got a fever and Uncle Sugar is the only cure at October 18, 2012 03:04 PM (AZGON)

58 Says the Romney 49 - Obama 45 poll is based on 1,376 LV with a D+6
sample.

*rolls around in it*

This plus the Yankeeeeess lose, the Yankeeeeeees lose will make alex a happy girl.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming soon. at October 18, 2012 03:04 PM (Gk3SS)

59 I actually ran the numbers this morning and posted to a different blog, but you get the point. Even accepting the numbers in Ohio, it doesn't play out.

Posted by: MJ at October 18, 2012 03:05 PM (TR60b)

60 Facts are a shitty thing when you are desperately clinging to the narrative.
For those fact-checkers out there, go ahead and look at the numbers reported by the Secretary of State. I'm not pulling stats out of my butt like, obviously, Marist. That statistic of "1/3 in and its 2/3 Obama !!!" will be repeated ad naseum as truth, when it is bogus and easily disproven. Let's see how many actually bother to fact-check it. I'm not holding my breath.

=======

Just read this on twitter:

@NBCNews

NBC/WSJ/Marist polls: Obama holds his leads in Iowa, Wisconsin

Posted by: Tami at October 18, 2012 03:05 PM (X6akg)

IIIIIIIWWOOOAAAAAAA! Where the wind comes right behind the rain!

Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at October 18, 2012 03:05 PM (/LkSO)

62 Boy I really like to eat those Iowa potatos while watching the fighting idaho iillini football team play !!!!!!!

Posted by: Very slo joe at October 18, 2012 03:05 PM (aWPTe)

63 But you'd have to say that generally, across every state, the I's are breaking for Romney. We know that there are obamlics who would vote for Obama even if he came out with the satan symbol on his jacket, but with I's going R...that's a spicy meatball.

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at October 18, 2012 03:05 PM (QxSug)

64 Really? The Ohio returns seemed to be real. The theory disproving the 19% that have voted focused on absentee, not early votes.

Apples to oranges.

Even so the math doesn't really add up.

Posted by: MJ at October 18, 2012 07:00 PM (TR60b)

NO- that 407k figure INCLUDES in-person early voting.

Posted by: CAC at October 18, 2012 03:05 PM (h/SgZ)

65 CAC, the polling reminds me of the bond market circa 2007. Everything looks OK if you just look at the top-line numbers for Obama they are preparing. It's only when you look into the internals that you see he's in a world of trouble.

There is a real possibility he is collapsing nationally, that we're seeing a large scale shift in the middle voters to Romney. We'll have to see if he can hold his position up by injecting huge amounts of energy and money into several of the swing states such as OH, IA, NH, ME-cd2.

Note that the Gallup numbers are recapitulating the remodeled averages Dave in FL found using Rasmussen's monthly partisan ID that samples ~30,000 people.

Posted by: Uriah Heep at October 18, 2012 03:06 PM (jhI6f)

66 Wait was that the Idaho haweyes ?????

Posted by: Very slo joe at October 18, 2012 03:06 PM (aWPTe)

67 Facts don't apply to liberal Democrats. As far as Marist goes, not only are they obviously oversampling Democrats they're also oversampling women and minorities and undersampling whites. Their polls are absurd. Regarding Iowa, Romney has a fighting chance but there's still work to be done. Except for Bush in '04 Iowa for decades has been a GOP wasteland in Prez contests. Old habits die hard. And I mean that figuratively and literally. Iowa has an old, unionized demographic. A lot of them still think they're voting for Truman. Conservatives in Iowa need to clue in, put down their litmus tests, and vote.

Posted by: Tsar Nicholas II at October 18, 2012 03:06 PM (pmsMR)

"Is this heaven?"

"No, it's Iwoa!"

Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at October 18, 2012 03:06 PM (/LkSO)

69
Marist is bad in bed.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at October 18, 2012 03:07 PM (PHb2k)

70 Damn,
IOWAS not so bad as a matter of fact our state motto is
"At Least were not Illinois "- or " Indiana "

Posted by: AmericanDawg at October 18, 2012 03:07 PM (XIsD/)

71 "No, it's Iwoa!" ISWYDT.

Posted by: George Orwell what knows 47% got a fever and Uncle Sugar is the only cure at October 18, 2012 03:08 PM (AZGON)

72 I'll believe PA when I see some serious Romney ad buys and visits next week. You can't poll the massive amount of fraud in Philly. Remember that Bush won 55% of PA excluding Philly and it's suburbs in 2004... and lost by 2%

Posted by: jjshaka at October 18, 2012 03:08 PM (kN12E)

73 Bbbbbbuttttt, Al Sharpton just said Barry is up in a couple of states and that the fundamentals of the race haven't changed at all!!!!

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at October 18, 2012 03:09 PM (BuSM8)

74 NO- that 407k figure INCLUDES in-person early voting. ---------------------------- I got the 19% out of a PPP poll. Was it based on Marist? Is the 407K total submitted votes in Ohio?

Posted by: MJ at October 18, 2012 03:09 PM (TR60b)

75 36 Why report real numbers when you can pull something out of your ass?

Or, as I recommend, shove something up in there.

Posted by: Anderson Cooper at October 18, 2012 03:09 PM (vjyZP)

76 Happy Days are here again. Sit On It Buckeyes.

Posted by: Count de Monet at October 18, 2012 03:11 PM (BAS5M)

77 "Says the Romney 49 - Obama 45 poll is based on 1,376 LV with a D+6
sample."

I think D+6 is pretty realistic for PA.

Posted by: RomneyLosesCalifornia at October 18, 2012 03:11 PM (dX4hn)

78 Go Idaho Hawkeyes !!!!!!!

Posted by: Very slo joe at October 18, 2012 03:11 PM (aWPTe)

79 Marist had John Kerry at winning at 51% on the final day of polling.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 18, 2012 03:11 PM (zrpqj)

80 Is the 407K total submitted votes in Ohio? Posted by: MJ at October 18, 2012 07:09 PM (TR60b) Yes. for the 18% stat in the polls to have been accurate you are talking a million votes in already.

Posted by: CAC at October 18, 2012 03:12 PM (h/SgZ)

81 it's a Mittastrophe for O.... a Romnelanche.....

Posted by: fixerupper at October 18, 2012 03:12 PM (ffV1/)

82 Correction, 50% not 51%.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 18, 2012 03:12 PM (zrpqj)

83
"wasn't there a story about all the somalis and kenyans that we're now dumping to Iowa, causing trouble? 100K a month adds up, especially in a state where we only won by 10K."

It's other midwestern states besides Iowa. Bear in mind that what helped inflict Senator Al Franken upon the nation (in addition to a lot of ballots in car trunks) were the huge number of Somalis who have showed up in Minne-socold.

There are a whole hell of a lot of Somalis in MN now. And when they're not getting busted volunteering as jihadis, which happens with considerable frequency, they're voting Democratic.

Posted by: torquewrench at October 18, 2012 03:12 PM (ymG7s)

84 (thank you Clint Eastwood)

Posted by: TheThinMan at October 18, 2012 06:59 PM (v2S39)

Fuckin' A. That crazy old coot talking to an empty chair might have singlehandedly saved the Republic.

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at October 18, 2012 03:12 PM (TIIx5)

85 It's so depressing. At this rate Romney will lose Uranus. Uranus and Obama: best buddies.

Posted by: George Orwell what knows 47% got a fever and Uncle Sugar is the only cure at October 18, 2012 03:13 PM (AZGON)

86 "We're not Illinois!" is actually a motto of Indiana.

Posted by: HeatherRadish™, predenounced for your convenience at October 18, 2012 03:13 PM (/kI1Q)

87 Stupid sock

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 18, 2012 03:13 PM (dX4hn)

88 What was the party split for Penn in 08, anyone know?

Posted by: TD, one of the proud 53% at October 18, 2012 03:13 PM (+uFux)

89 But but Obama will lower the rising seas and give away phones and .......

Posted by: grumpy momma bear at October 18, 2012 03:14 PM (aWPTe)

90 for the 18% stat in the polls to have been accurate you are talking a million votes in already. ---------------------------------- Yeah, that's correct. Roughly 19% of 6M votes. Hmmmm. This is the dorkiest debate I've had since 4:30, but I get paid for that.

Posted by: MJ at October 18, 2012 03:15 PM (TR60b)

91 I live in Iowa, and I haven't voted yet. They did give us the option to do it by mail, but to be honest, I much prefer going to the polls on the day itself--it feels more like participating in the democratic process. Plus, there's less chance of my vote getting lost in the mail, which would piss me the hell off.

Posted by: Rosa E. at October 18, 2012 03:15 PM (IKVkI)

92 Percentages are for the little people. They are, what we decide to believe they are. Eat me, serfs.

Posted by: Blamestream® Marxists at October 18, 2012 03:15 PM (ILPJU)

93 Jon Avalon is giant pussy. I really despise this limp dick. He can take his no labels bullshit and ram it up his dirt chute.

Posted by: JackStraw at October 18, 2012 03:16 PM (TMB3S)

94 88 "We're not Illinois!" is actually a motto of Indiana. Posted by: HeatherRadishÂ™, predenounced for your convenience at October 18, 2012 07:13 PM (/kI1Q) Heh........!

Posted by: Blamestream® Marxists at October 18, 2012 03:16 PM (ILPJU)

95 What was the party split for Penn in 08, anyone know? ---- Split? SPLIT??? I'll split your skull you yappitty yappin Saltine. This is MY polling place and your redneck honky ass can bounce.

Posted by: Shim Sham Shabbazz and the New Black Panther Party at October 18, 2012 03:16 PM (ffV1/)

96 Hey CAC, I live in ME-2, do you want some help with election night numbers here?
I emailed you a couple months back. Let me know ...
hanish@roadunner.com

Posted by: deusexmachina at October 18, 2012 03:17 PM (6RTwM)

97 @90 D+8

Posted by: AuthorLMendez, Head Of The Projection Desk (O 290, R 248) at October 18, 2012 03:17 PM (90MP9)

98 3 outs until the Yankees are done for.

Posted by: logprof at October 18, 2012 03:17 PM (jKE+Z)

99 Iowa's republicans are more of the Ron Paul variety. We've got a problem with those here. They've split the vote on more than one occasion and allowed Dems to eke out majorities in the State House.

But Iowa elected a GOP governor in 2010 for the first time in 16 years, so obviously it isn't a lost cause.

Posted by: CausticConservative at October 18, 2012 03:17 PM (gT3jF)

100 88 "We're not Illinois!" is actually a motto of Indiana. Posted by: HeatherRadishÂ™, predenounced for your convenience at October 18, 2012 07:13 PM (/kI1Q) Heh.....! Sock off....

Posted by: 98ZJUSMC in Johnson County laughing at Cook County at October 18, 2012 03:17 PM (ILPJU)

101 So given 407K votes banked at a split of 75-25 for Obama, with 6M votes total and the remainder at 51-45 for Romney, the race is basically tied in Ohio.

Posted by: MJ at October 18, 2012 03:18 PM (TR60b)

102
My election prediction......

http://tinyurl.com/8n8x5av

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at October 18, 2012 03:18 PM (TIIx5)

103

it's a Mittastrophe for O....

a Romnelanche.....

Posted by: fixerupper at October 18, 2012 07:12 PM (ffV1/)

Ok, I literally laughed out loud. Nice one.

Posted by: Count de Monet at October 18, 2012 03:20 PM (BAS5M)

104 Keep spinning, dems. That just motivates us. I bet Romney donations are sky high this week.

Posted by: LASue at October 18, 2012 03:20 PM (gjIQF)

105 So, is anybody pulling for the Yanks?

Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at October 18, 2012 03:20 PM (/LkSO)

106 Iowans can always go to their county court house and vote early. Being overly paranoid, I don't trust absentee ballots making it through the mail, and my precinct's Democratic poll watchers might be tempted to do something with my election day ballot. So I plan on voting at the court house and handing my sealed absentee directly to the county auditor for safe keeping.

Posted by: CausticConservative at October 18, 2012 03:21 PM (gT3jF)

107 Ok, I literally laughed out loud. Nice one. Posted by: Count de Monet at October 18, 2012 07:20 PM (BAS5M) ---- Nov 6th - Chick Fil A a Kenyan Day!!!!

Posted by: fixerupper at October 18, 2012 03:21 PM (ffV1/)

108 88 "We're not Illinois!" is actually a motto of Indiana. Hehehe So glad this momma bear is in the Great State of Texas !!!!!

Posted by: grumpy momma bear at October 18, 2012 03:21 PM (aWPTe)

109 #108 those still count as absentee, per the SOS. So those # are included here.

Posted by: CAC at October 18, 2012 03:22 PM (h/SgZ)

110 Mittens takes both PA and OH, making Iowa and MI inconsequential.

Posted by: Truck Monkey at October 18, 2012 03:22 PM (jucos)

111 This plus the Yankeeeeess lose, the Yankeeeeeees lose will make alex a happy girl.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming soon.

PS... 8-1 with a rocket line drive over the left feild wall.

Posted by: Gmac at October 18, 2012 03:23 PM (IanLz)

112 8-1 Detroit

Posted by: USS Diversity at October 18, 2012 03:25 PM (0CiTm)

113 Jay Cost is really going ape-shit on Marist/PPP on Twitter...

Posted by: Tony253 at October 18, 2012 03:27 PM (3yMFT)

114 But Iowa elected a GOP governor in 2010 for the first time in 16 years, so obviously it isn't a lost cause.

12 years. And they re-elected that guy, lol.

Met him on a fifth-grade field trip to the statehouse, shortly after Reagan's re-election. He's been rockin' that Tom Selleck 'stache for three decades.

Posted by: HeatherRadish™, predenounced for your convenience at October 18, 2012 03:29 PM (/kI1Q)

115 100 3 outs until the Yankees are done for.

Posted by: logprof at October 18, 2012 07:17 PM (jKE+Z)

---

Especially A-Rod.

Posted by: Craig Poe at October 18, 2012 03:29 PM (BVkEs)

116 The Ohio early vote totals so far compiled by ningrim show that Democrats are down by nearly 150,000 votes since 2008 TOTALS. Republicans ONLY have around 25,000 votes to go to get to their 2008 totals.

This is with only two weeks left.

Romney is winning Ohio.

Posted by: NWConservative at October 18, 2012 03:31 PM (M1gmo)

117 Mittens takes both PA and OH, making Iowa and MI inconsequential.

No. It makes them a -bonus-. The more of a bonus we can manage, the more irrelevant the Dems become.

Posted by: Al at October 18, 2012 03:31 PM (aOAEM)

118 For you kiddies on that twitter thing a #NotOptimal should be in the future.

Posted by: RWC at October 18, 2012 03:31 PM (t+Sdx)

119 If Mitt busts out the "not optimal" quote Monday he's feeling pretty good about the internals and just wants to rub Obama's nose in the shit he took by saying it...

Posted by: Tony253 at October 18, 2012 03:35 PM (3yMFT)

120

Posted by: Al at October 18, 2012 07:31 PM (aOAEM)

Let's make it a MANDATE (and not the Reggie Love kind)

Posted by: Bill from Chappaqua at October 18, 2012 03:36 PM (MAhUT)

121 Just spoke to Susquehanna's chief pollster in PA. Says the Romney 49 - Obama 45 poll is based on 1,376 LV with a D+6 sample. HOLY FUCKIN SHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: Evilpens at October 18, 2012 03:36 PM (ck76k)

122 I have the transcript ready and it says The Precedent had his fingers crossed when he said "not optimal".

Posted by: Next GOP-Approved Debate Moderator at October 18, 2012 03:42 PM (zpqa2)

123 Jay Cost @JayCostTWS Marist is a generally lousy and unreliable pollster that's been promoted wrongly to the big leagues by NBC/WSJ. Any questions? UMM that pretty much covers it

Posted by: Evilpens at October 18, 2012 03:43 PM (ck76k)

124 Eh, it's NBC/WSJ, i can't remember them ever being accurate and it's almost always way in favor of D's. It's one of those polls that if it's positive for R's everyone says "wow even NBC/WSJ has R's leading", not really sure why people pay any attention to it at all.

Posted by: booger at October 18, 2012 03:47 PM (HI6wa)

125 http://twitpic.com/b5cuub

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at October 18, 2012 03:55 PM (i0vBR)

126 @58

two things....

1: Farm subsidies

2: Every burg larger than 10000 has more than their fair share of castoffs from Minneapolis, Chicago, Madison,.. etc

plus lots and lots of meth... second only to missouri, I think.

and yes, I'm from Iowa.

Bonus thing #3

Farm subsidies. Think of it as an impromptu Union... The more subs you give out, the more they will be depended on, to inifinity, and beyond. can't explain why this doesn't affect other states to the south and west of us, because im probably wrong about all of this, but hey, I tried.

Posted by: fed up at October 18, 2012 03:55 PM (u6e7p)

127 Although I agree with your dismissal of the results as implausible, you cannot use the fact that the Secretary of State has RECEIVED absentee ballots corresponding to about 18% of Iowa voters as PROOF that the survey is flawed. An absentee voter who has filled out and mailed his ballot has voted WHETHER OR NOT that ballot has been received by the Secretary of State. The number of Iowans who have voted is greater than 284, 569. It seems unlikely that it is A LOT greater, but it is certainly greater (Again a ballot that has been mailed is a vote already cast in the mind of a voter.) It is highly doubtful that it is over 200,000 greater which the 34% figure would require, but it is greater than 284,569.

(My apologies for the caps but bolding text for emphasis does not seem to work here.)

Posted by: BILL M at October 18, 2012 03:58 PM (B5XJH)

128 Bill, there are not 200k ballots currently in-flight as you, yourself acknowledge. In-state, local, mail service will be a small fraction.

There is a huge discrepancy likely an order of magnitude larger than the in-flight value which is obviously from flaws in the sampling methodology of these polls.

We have objective reality on one hand and extrapolated sampling which doesn't map to it -- this isn't MSNBC, come on.

Posted by: Uriah Heep at October 18, 2012 04:03 PM (jhI6f)

129 You are wrong about the farm subsidies, fed up. Most farmers vote Republican. If you're from Iowa, drive around a little. The country roads are lined with Republican signs. You'll see a few oddballs, but mostly closer to town. When you drive around in the cities, that's where your weirdo vote comes out. I know old lady democrats from town that are voting Republican this year. Koolaid only lasts so long.

Posted by: name at October 18, 2012 04:06 PM (KqnY1)

130 Uriah,

I agree. Here is a better way (I think) to state the case: Even if EVERY ONE of the 463,219 absentee ballots that have been requested have been cast, this would account for less than 31% of the vote (based on an electorate of 1.5 million voters). Therefore, it is impossible that 34% of Iowa votes have already been cast.

Posted by: BILL M at October 18, 2012 04:15 PM (B5XJH)

131 Or maybe OfA decided to send their Chicago fraud machine on a road trip...

Posted by: JEM at October 18, 2012 04:18 PM (o+SC1)

132

Marist: Lying Liars That Lie

Posted by: Firing the SCOAMF in November at October 18, 2012 04:21 PM (hjdAs)

133

The Marist questionnaire is strongly biased towards getting people to say "I've already voted" and poorly written and sequenced in general. Wouldn't even get an "A" in an underclass course.

Note that this is a third of the sample saying it had voted as of a number of days ago - even more WRONG than CAC had indicated.

Of course, I'm only a methodologist and expert witness, so what do I know?

Posted by: Frederick Stephan at October 18, 2012 04:28 PM (khZbv)

134 Fun fact with the Marist poll: they claim among early voters, Obama is winning 67 percent of the votes. Now, let's assume that 100% of Dems voted for Obama and 0% of Reps voted for Obama. If that's the case, then 80% of the independents are voting for Obama, based on the party breakdown provided by Iowa.

Anyone believe that 80% of independents that are early voting are voting for Obama?

Anyone?

Posted by: Skeptical at October 18, 2012 04:33 PM (Dya0u)

135 I don't know that early voting stats are worth anything, regardless of party ratios. One obvious thing that's hard to measure is how many of these people would have voted on Election Day anyway. I don't like early voting as a matter of principle. But since it's available in my state, I'll take advantage just for the convenience. But I would definitely vote on Election Day if it were my only option.

Posted by: Martin at October 18, 2012 04:54 PM (MSrqi)

136 131...

yes, but republicans vote for the farm subsidies too..

Posted by: fed up at October 18, 2012 05:11 PM (u6e7p)

137 I always remind myself that the partisan numbers on early voting are based on registration, not the actual vote. I'm betting a lot more Democrats will be crossing over this election than Republicans.

Posted by: Grimaldi at October 18, 2012 05:44 PM (2B8kt)

138 Fed up, you are correct, and that's why subsidies don't make us go Democrat.

Posted by: name at October 18, 2012 06:42 PM (KqnY1)

139

All the Iowa numbers tell me is that union members were told to vote early to create the impression that Obama is a shoo-in in order to rev up democrats and demoralize republicans. Dems are much more practiced at orchestrating things like that.

I worked with a group of democrats years ago on a local issue, and it was amazing the way they were always plotting ways to create the impression that they had more support than they really did.

Posted by: Brenda at October 18, 2012 06:59 PM (i/s89)

140 Here is a Marist poll that you might find less objectionable: http://tinyurl.com/97ru7lg

Posted by: BILL M at October 19, 2012 02:40 AM (B5XJH)

141 I'm not holding my breath. Oh, go on, hold your breath. I'm curious to see what interesting shades of blue you turn before giving up or passing out. SCIENCE!

Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie ® at October 19, 2012 06:18 AM (1hM1d)

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