Ace of Spades HQ

November 06, 2012

2004 Exits: Kerry +9 in Virginia
— Ace

Yeah, Kerry did not win Virginia.

I'll get off this now but these exit polls are non-scientific polls. They are not random dials. They are self-selecting. There is selection error by surveyor -- 19 year old sociology major with a "Darwin" fish headband -- and selection bias by those surveyed. The Shy Tory phenomenon, where those likely to be branded "Racist!" don't wish to be branded "Racist!," and so refuse to respond.

Do you get excited over Freeped polls, which also are self-selecting and thus not scientific? No, you don't.

So just vote.

Remember, the 2004 exits had Kerry winning nationally 51-48. Actual result? Pretty much the opposite of that. Bush won by just under three points.

Thus, a nearly +6 bias in favor of Democrats.

You can also ignore the sub-toplines in the exits, for the exact same reason. They're saying on CNN this is the first election in which Hispanics make up 10% of the voting population. Again -- self-selected. D+6. More whites than anyone else avoiding the sociology major.

The exits are, through-and-through, faulty and a big waste of your time.

I say again: Random-digit-dial polls are more accurate.

If you weren't phased by Romney down 2 in Ohio in actual polls, you shouldn't sweat him being down in Ohio by exit polls.

Posted by: Ace at 02:50 PM | Comments (26)
Post contains 228 words, total size 1 kb.

1 Exit polls indicate 10% of vegans love bacon-wrapped Angus filets.

(I stole that from Twitter. But it's true.)

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at November 06, 2012 02:52 PM (hO8IJ)

2 Scoamf is already packing his bags.

Posted by: ELKomandante at November 06, 2012 02:53 PM (9Fjmj)

3 I am going to have a heart attack.

Posted by: Jay at November 06, 2012 02:54 PM (kIH56)

4 Ron Paul leads in IN, KY.

Posted by: RonPaulbot at November 06, 2012 02:55 PM (vWZrj)

5 Don't make fun of my Darwin fish head band you fucking fascist!

Posted by: Under 30 Hipster at November 06, 2012 02:56 PM (/YJYi)

6 I. Hate. Matt. Drudge.

Posted by: Jmel at November 06, 2012 02:58 PM (c+D8V)

7 We're calling it for Obama! Everybody just go home and stop counting!

Posted by: The MFM at November 06, 2012 02:59 PM (uhAkr)

8 I hate drudge too. He's not getting any hits from me tonight.

Posted by: Dr. Slotkin at November 06, 2012 02:59 PM (1crPI)

9 Shit just got real...ly bad exit polling.

Posted by: Max Power at November 06, 2012 03:00 PM (q177U)

10 This is true.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 06, 2012 03:00 PM (SKX2R)

11 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at November 06, 2012 03:01 PM (9XBK2)

12 10 Why are you still here?

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at November 06, 2012 03:01 PM (aSf5o)

13 So we officially have a time machined main post. Awesome.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming soon. at November 06, 2012 03:01 PM (Gk3SS)

14 Random samples? Never heard of them.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at November 06, 2012 03:03 PM (aSf5o)

15 Par for the course. In '04 they also had Kerry winning PA by 19 points. Just a bit off, to borrow from Bob Uecker. But there's certainly a reason why the media does this in every election cycle in which their candidate might lose: it works. Seriously. There are conservatives out there who are so addled, so milquetoast, so f'n dumb, they can be duped by the liberal media into not voting. Time and again. They were duped back in '04. Some of them will be duped again tonight. C'est la vie. Ultimately, however, small tails usually don't wag big dogs. But we'll know for sure in a couple of hours.

Posted by: Tsar Nicholas II at November 06, 2012 03:04 PM (pmsMR)

16 Honest pollsters? Never heard of them.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at November 06, 2012 03:04 PM (aSf5o)

17 CAC broke the blog by artificially inseminating his post's time stamp.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at November 06, 2012 03:06 PM (aSf5o)

18 As soon as the returns start coming in, I'll be beating my F5 key like it owes me money.

Posted by: GnuBreed at November 06, 2012 03:07 PM (ccXZP)

19 >> Do you get excited over Freeped polls, which also are self-selecting and thus not scientific?

Why yes, yes we do.

Posted by: Ron Paul supporters everywhere at November 06, 2012 03:07 PM (eUGes)

20

Can anyone recommend some good online source to watch news?

I would really like to watch Fox News, actually, but have no cable.

Posted by: dan-O at November 06, 2012 03:08 PM (sWycd)

Is there a live blog tonight?

Posted by: Jinx the Cat at November 06, 2012 03:08 PM (l3vZN)

22 Leading with one county reporting.

Posted by: fluffeneidas at November 06, 2012 03:09 PM (vWZrj)

23 Gergen just said va not looking good for Romney based on exit polls.

Posted by: Lara at November 06, 2012 03:10 PM (TgSwQ)

24 23 Gergen is one of the stupidest, most boring people on television, and that's saying something.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at November 06, 2012 03:16 PM (aSf5o)

25 New thread, I guess.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at November 06, 2012 03:18 PM (aSf5o)

26 I live and vote in DC. (Yes, I know my vote is worthless, and DC will go for Putin before a Republican.) The hell with it, I live here and I'm voting my way, and I showed up with the flu and my sick 4 y.o. in tow just to vote for Romney. Now, had a poll-worker asked me who I voted for? I would have lied and said Obama. My polling place draws a rough crowd, whereas my child has red hair and I'm 100lbs soaking wet. I don't need anyone remembering who we are, but I have NEVER been so motivated to vote. The plural of anecdote is not data, but if a conservative in DC is determined to vote? I just don't see one staying home in Ohio.

Posted by: bcc at November 06, 2012 03:53 PM (HfxMC)

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