April 16, 2012
— CAC Nobody knows what turnout is going to be until election day. You can make some pretty good guesses, based on visible enthusiasm for candidates, months out. But you aren't going to nail the actual breakdown in voter ID. Exit polling in 2010, for example, showed a 36R-28I-36D split. Independents broke heavily for the Republicans, and that made the difference in the Red Wave. For months, some firms started shifting over their partisan ID in sampling to the right, and these firms ended up exaggerating Republican strength (prime example : Pat Toomey, who won by 2% but averaged at least double that in polling).
In the hotly contested 2004 Presidential election, voter ID split 37R-26I-37D. Even when Democrats enjoyed their own wave of pain in 2006, voter ID was only 38D-26I-36R, a D+2 edge. Independents, again, made the pain far worse. The 2008 "landslide" for President Obama did see a marked shift in voter ID (one that Gallup and Rasmussen both insist has totally evaporated) from the 2004/2006 cycles to 39D/29I/32R, which marks (so far) the high point for Democratic advantage, D+7. President Obama and the Democrats have taken hits in their image with the voting public since, so that edge is not what it was.
I could understand polling firms showing between R/D+0 and D+4 for a Presidential cycle, as there are more registered Democrats than Republicans and the Republicans make up some of the gap by being more likely to vote. That phenomenon itself is no big secret, we often discuss the difference between registered voter and likely voter polls and results. But polling firms shitting out D+10, D+11, and higher samples have no excuse. It is incredibly laughable that these polls are averaged with those using far more realistic samples (R+0 to D+4), and in so doing prop up the President's numbers.
It is amazing what happens when polling firms switch from registered to likely. Public Policy Polling enjoys a high rate of accuracy for its final polling. When election day comes closer, they shift over from registered to likely voter pools, and, surprise, the Republicans typically (but not always) do better. Just look at their Walker poll already mentioned here. Polling this far out is meaningless not because the electorate can change it's minds, but the polling firms themselves often use voter samples that will, months later, look laughable.
Not accusing anyone here. Just a thought.
Oh, and by the way, Rasmussen is showing the generic congressional ballot preference is 46% for the Republicans, 36% for the Democrats. A bump I can only assume came either entirely from Scott's bald head or a "unity" bump coinciding with the end of the primary.
Posted by: CAC at
04:26 PM
| Comments (181)
Post contains 465 words, total size 3 kb.
Posted by: Keith Arnold at April 16, 2012 04:27 PM (Jdtsu)
Posted by: buzzion at April 16, 2012 04:29 PM (GULKT)
Posted by: steevy at April 16, 2012 04:29 PM (7W3wI)
Posted by: CoolCzech at April 16, 2012 04:30 PM (niZvt)
Posted by: Kal Penn at April 16, 2012 04:31 PM (FcR7P)
Posted by: nevergiveup at April 16, 2012 04:32 PM (i6RpT)
Posted by: t-bird at April 16, 2012 04:33 PM (FcR7P)
Posted by: Hydrocarbon Liberation Front at April 16, 2012 04:34 PM (NVu2l)
Posted by: ChrisValentine at April 16, 2012 04:34 PM (E9kgB)
Posted by: ChrisValentine at April 16, 2012 04:35 PM (E9kgB)
What the hell is this from Drudge? Armed citizens arrests?
http://bit.ly/HMQh9e
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at April 16, 2012 08:27 PM (piMMO)
-----
FDR did the same thing in the name of price controls. Plowed crops under and killed livestock.
http://preview.tinyurl.com/cmmjddl
Posted by: Elint engr at April 16, 2012 04:36 PM (sJKFk)
Posted by: steevy at April 16, 2012 04:36 PM (7W3wI)
Posted by: The Mega Independent at April 16, 2012 04:37 PM (AlYnQ)
Posted by: Christina Hendricks at April 16, 2012 04:38 PM (niZvt)
Posted by: bergerbilder at April 16, 2012 04:39 PM (j+Izh)
Posted by: nope at April 16, 2012 04:42 PM (HOOye)
Posted by: bawney frank at April 16, 2012 04:43 PM (HOOye)
Posted by: Hydrocarbon Liberation Front at April 16, 2012 08:34 PM (NVu2l)
Glad I'm not the only one who feels this way. I still look at him, but he's dangerously close to nuking the fridge.
Posted by: Truman North at April 16, 2012 04:44 PM (I2LwF)
Posted by: pay to play at April 16, 2012 04:45 PM (HOOye)
About the pigs:
I like pigs. Thats why I don't eat pork. But if killing a pig is so heart-wrenching for a farmer you have to wonder why he chose that career.
There's so much hyperventilating in that article I don't know what really happened. But I think the pigs are in fact wild boars that Texans run around and shoot for fun (sometimes they escape).
Posted by: indigo child at April 16, 2012 04:46 PM (xXhWA)
Posted by: Comrade Arthur at April 16, 2012 04:46 PM (d9lOz)
Posted by: JonathanEllis at April 16, 2012 04:47 PM (BdzEV)
Posted by: Truman North at April 16, 2012 08:44 PM (I2LwF)
I makes everything he links suspect. If a con gets sucked into a fraud, he loses credibility for all time. That is just how it works. So, now I have to distrust anything he posts until I can find verification.
Posted by: Hydrocarbon Liberation Front at April 16, 2012 04:48 PM (NVu2l)
Posted by: NIPPP at April 16, 2012 04:49 PM (0oYHO)
Perhaps those poor pig farmers were breeding boars for hunting purposes....
http://1.usa.gov/AktDrq
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at April 16, 2012 04:49 PM (piMMO)
Posted by: Comrade Arthur at April 16, 2012 04:49 PM (d9lOz)
Posted by: Hydrocarbon Liberation Front at April 16, 2012 08:34 PM (NVu2l)
****
He linked them again today.
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at April 16, 2012 04:50 PM (piMMO)
Posted by: Anson Mitchell at April 16, 2012 04:51 PM (IhUxK)
It will require that , for several election cycles to reverse the damage they have done.
Posted by: irongrampa at April 16, 2012 04:52 PM (SAMxH)
Posted by: Anson Mitchell at April 16, 2012 04:52 PM (IhUxK)
Posted by: Pink Liberation Theologist at April 16, 2012 04:53 PM (XkVVw)
Posted by: sickinmass at April 16, 2012 04:53 PM (bcNec)
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at April 16, 2012 08:50 PM (piMMO)
Once they go sensationalist, best to apply a grain of salt to everything.
Posted by: Hydrocarbon Liberation Front at April 16, 2012 04:55 PM (NVu2l)
Dear Eeyores and Unicorn Fart Sniffers:
Reed Richards has your number.
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at April 16, 2012 04:55 PM (7utQ2)
Posted by: IllTemperedCur at April 16, 2012 04:55 PM (Rhie+)
Posted by: LASue at April 16, 2012 04:56 PM (I1icO)
Posted by: Lokki at April 16, 2012 04:58 PM (a5F9g)
Posted by: nevergiveup at April 16, 2012 04:58 PM (i6RpT)
Posted by: StuckOnStupid at April 16, 2012 04:58 PM (R5yLq)
Posted by: Minifest at April 16, 2012 04:58 PM (Gc/Qi)
Posted by: D. Hopper at April 16, 2012 04:58 PM (AVfT8)
Posted by: Hydrocarbon Liberation Front at April 16, 2012 04:59 PM (NVu2l)
Posted by: BurtTC at April 16, 2012 04:59 PM (Gc/Qi)
Posted by: Roseanne Barr at April 16, 2012 04:59 PM (FcR7P)
Posted by: nevergiveup at April 16, 2012 05:00 PM (i6RpT)
****
I haven't seen it in months. I thought they had taken it off.
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at April 16, 2012 05:00 PM (piMMO)
The 'wild pigs' are both. ....Some are pure 'wild boars' native to this continent. Some are descendents of 'wild boars' indiginous to Europe, brought over here by hunters for private reserves....and some escaped.
And some wild pigs are feral pigs....escapees from farms. ...The problem is, they are all interbreeding and creating big monster pigs as a result.
Posted by: wheatie at April 16, 2012 05:00 PM (+5U+B)
Posted by: D. Hopper at April 16, 2012 05:01 PM (AVfT8)
Posted by: Anson Mitchell at April 16, 2012 05:01 PM (IhUxK)
Posted by: nevergiveup at April 16, 2012 05:01 PM (i6RpT)
****
I ate wild boar a long tie ago and it was delicious....right up until I chomped down on a piece of shot.
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at April 16, 2012 05:02 PM (piMMO)
Posted by: Anson Mitchell at April 16, 2012 05:02 PM (IhUxK)
Posted by: D. Hopper at April 16, 2012 05:03 PM (AVfT8)
Posted by: Justamom at April 16, 2012 05:04 PM (Sptt8)
Posted by: Overseas Obama Donor at April 16, 2012 05:04 PM (FcR7P)
SHIT JUST GOT REAL.
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at April 16, 2012 09:02 PM (7utQ2)
He should disable the address verification on his online donations too. And say he's just following the precedent Obama is setting.
Posted by: buzzion at April 16, 2012 05:04 PM (GULKT)
I'm waiting for him to go to Barcelona and say, "Thanks for such a nice welcome here in the Catalinas."
Posted by: Ghost of Lee Atwater at April 16, 2012 05:05 PM (E1JyF)
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at April 16, 2012 09:02 PM (piMMO)
The only thing I use a shotgun for is quail. I even squirrel hunt with a .22.
Posted by: Hydrocarbon Liberation Front at April 16, 2012 05:05 PM (NVu2l)
Posted by: Akhbar Blumstein at April 16, 2012 05:06 PM (FcR7P)
Posted by: StuckOnStupid at April 16, 2012 05:07 PM (R5yLq)
Posted by: Pink Liberation Theologist at April 16, 2012 05:07 PM (XkVVw)
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at April 16, 2012 05:07 PM (7utQ2)
59
Wonder how bacon from a feral hog is?
Not bad, if you smoke it all day. ....The bigger ones....over 500 lbs....are tougher, from what I've heard. The smaller ones are easier to tenderize by smoking.
Posted by: wheatie at April 16, 2012 05:07 PM (+5U+B)
Posted by: Anson Mitchell at April 16, 2012 05:09 PM (IhUxK)
***
A couple of years ago I was at dinner with customers when the waiter announced that the special dish for the night was grilled pork.
I LOVE pork and ordered it, and then he asked how I wanted it cooked.
"Grilled" Didn't you say it was "Grilled"?
No. He wanted to know what temperature.
Well DONE!!!
He then proceeded to launch into a lecture about how today's pork products can be safely eaten at any temperature.
Everyone at the table had the same reaction: Then you go eat raw pork. We want ours well done.
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at April 16, 2012 05:09 PM (piMMO)
Posted by: Comrade Arthur at April 16, 2012 08:49 PM (d9lOz)
LOL!
Posted by: NIPPP at April 16, 2012 05:09 PM (0oYHO)
Posted by: jewells45 is happy!! at April 16, 2012 05:09 PM (UljOc)
Posted by: StuckOnStupid at April 16, 2012 05:09 PM (R5yLq)
Posted by: t-bird at April 16, 2012 05:09 PM (FcR7P)
Posted by: Anson Mitchell at April 16, 2012 05:10 PM (IhUxK)
Posted by: D. Hopper at April 16, 2012 05:10 PM (AVfT8)
The subject is worth some research, imho. Perhaps there is a trip to Michigan in the offing. Think I'll look into it.
Posted by: irongrampa at April 16, 2012 05:11 PM (SAMxH)
Wait - is that right?
Posted by: Anson Mitchell at April 16, 2012 08:51 PM (IhUxK)
Still need to put a "metric shit ton" in there somewhere!
Posted by: NIPPP at April 16, 2012 05:11 PM (0oYHO)
Posted by: D. Hopper at April 16, 2012 05:11 PM (AVfT8)
Posted by: Invasive Species Checklist at April 16, 2012 05:11 PM (HOOye)
Posted by: Tommy Chong at April 16, 2012 05:12 PM (Rhie+)
Posted by: Jimbo at April 16, 2012 05:12 PM (O3R/2)
Posted by: Muhammed at April 16, 2012 05:13 PM (DGIjM)
Posted by: StuckOnStupid at April 16, 2012 05:13 PM (R5yLq)
Don't most barnyard animals eat their own shit?
Um, no. ....And pigs would rather eat anything else but their own shit. Pigs are omnivores....they even eat people.
Posted by: wheatie at April 16, 2012 05:13 PM (+5U+B)
Posted by: indigo child at April 16, 2012 05:14 PM (xXhWA)
Posted by: Tommy Chong at April 16, 2012 09:12 PM (Rhie+)
***
I tried to watch a Cheech and Chong movie a few weeks ago. It was gawd awful. I mean TERRIBLE.
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at April 16, 2012 05:14 PM (piMMO)
Posted by: BurtTC at April 16, 2012 05:14 PM (Gc/Qi)
Posted by: StuckOnStupid at April 16, 2012 05:15 PM (R5yLq)
Posted by: D. Hopper at April 16, 2012 05:15 PM (AVfT8)
Posted by: Islamic Rage Boy at April 16, 2012 05:15 PM (e8kgV)
****
Reminds me of Hank Hill joining the co-op.
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at April 16, 2012 05:16 PM (piMMO)
Posted by: Brick Top at April 16, 2012 05:16 PM (Rhie+)
Posted by: Justamom at April 16, 2012 05:16 PM (Sptt8)
Posted by: StuckOnStupid at April 16, 2012 05:16 PM (R5yLq)
Posted by: Pink Liberation Theologist at April 16, 2012 05:17 PM (XkVVw)
Posted by: D. Hopper at April 16, 2012 05:17 PM (AVfT8)
Posted by: nevergiveup at April 16, 2012 05:17 PM (i6RpT)
same for home grown pullets. i've got a friend who sells 'em for 6-7 bucks a pop, dressed. you'll never go back to store bought. plus its cheaper if you get bunch of them.
Posted by: D. Hopper at April 16, 2012 09:15 PM (AVfT
make sure your beef comes from critters that never got into sage... or pumpkins. take it from me. pumpkin cows taste disgusting. no i dont know why. just that they do and you can GIVE the meat away once your friends get on to you about it.
Posted by: gushka haz a new Kitty what plays fetch! ! at April 16, 2012 05:17 PM (r7Ddb)
Posted by: Truman North at April 16, 2012 05:17 PM (I2LwF)
==feral hog meat is terrible.==
?? We eat wild hog all the time. I'm not even a pork fan and I like it.
Posted by: USS Diversity at April 16, 2012 05:18 PM (vpe0k)
Posted by: cherry at April 16, 2012 05:18 PM (OhYCU)
Posted by: CoolCzech at April 16, 2012 05:18 PM (niZvt)
Posted by: D. Hopper at April 16, 2012 05:19 PM (AVfT8)
Well, we'll never balance the budget without that extra 4 billion a year.
To math geeks, this is known as "statistical noise."
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at April 16, 2012 05:19 PM (7utQ2)
Posted by: StuckOnStupid at April 16, 2012 05:19 PM (R5yLq)
Wild onions can give the meat a pretty bad flavor too.
Posted by: Ghost of Lee Atwater at April 16, 2012 05:20 PM (E1JyF)
Posted by: D. Hopper at April 16, 2012 05:21 PM (AVfT8)
Posted by: Anson Mitchell at April 16, 2012 05:21 PM (IhUxK)
Posted by: seriously at April 16, 2012 05:22 PM (HOOye)
Posted by: BurtTC at April 16, 2012 05:22 PM (Gc/Qi)
Posted by: IllTemperedCur at April 16, 2012 05:22 PM (Rhie+)
Posted by: D. Hopper at April 16, 2012 05:23 PM (AVfT8)
Posted by: Oliver Rose at April 16, 2012 05:23 PM (i6RpT)
Posted by: Anson Mitchell at April 16, 2012 05:23 PM (IhUxK)
and ended up with a bunch of 50-70K horses getting destroyed due to the fact they could not pass the new mass spec test for a disease they were already tested for, and passed clean on ten years ago. They lost their asses, then their ranch. You see they were their top breeding horses. It seems if you are connected, or can pay for it, you can get waivers on having to pass the new test or even having to take the test, however.
Posted by: gushka haz a new Kitty what plays fetch! ! at April 16, 2012 05:24 PM (r7Ddb)
Posted by: Anson Mitchell at April 16, 2012 05:25 PM (IhUxK)
Posted by: nevergiveup at April 16, 2012 05:26 PM (i6RpT)
Posted by: Oliver Rose at April 16, 2012 09:23 PM (i6RpT)
****
Oh, how I love that movie!
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at April 16, 2012 05:26 PM (piMMO)
Posted by: Pink Liberation Theologist at April 16, 2012 05:27 PM (XkVVw)
Posted by: T Garr at April 16, 2012 05:27 PM (Gc/Qi)
I can't find the article where Obama said that. Got a link?
Posted by: jwb7605 at April 16, 2012 05:28 PM (Qxe/p)
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at April 16, 2012 05:29 PM (piMMO)
Posted by: D. Hopper at April 16, 2012 05:29 PM (AVfT8)
Just the facts.
Posted by: Fat Rush Limpcock at April 16, 2012 05:30 PM (z0HdK)
Posted by: USS Diversity at April 16, 2012 05:30 PM (vpe0k)
Posted by: D. Hopper at April 16, 2012 05:32 PM (AVfT8)
Posted by: CoolCzech at April 16, 2012 05:32 PM (niZvt)
Posted by: D. Hopper at April 16, 2012 09:29 PM (AVfT
In what way are they different/better?
Posted by: cm9000 at April 16, 2012 05:33 PM (MwTP4)
Posted by: t-bird at April 16, 2012 05:33 PM (FcR7P)
Posted by: CoolCzech at April 16, 2012 05:33 PM (niZvt)
Posted by: Anson Mitchell at April 16, 2012 05:35 PM (IhUxK)
Posted by: save the horses at April 16, 2012 05:35 PM (HOOye)
Posted by: LASue at April 16, 2012 05:36 PM (I1icO)
Posted by: D. Hopper at April 16, 2012 05:36 PM (AVfT8)
****
If you've never seen the movie...do. Kathleen Turner at her very hottest in a marriage gone very, very bad.
Great, brutal movie.
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at April 16, 2012 05:37 PM (piMMO)
Posted by: steevy at April 16, 2012 05:37 PM (7W3wI)
Posted by: nevergiveup at April 16, 2012 05:38 PM (i6RpT)
Barack Obama made an uncharacteristic error, more akin to those of his predecessor George W Bush, by referring to the Falkland Islands as the Maldives."
****
reminds me of a scene from My Fellow Americans when the President instructs his aide to make certain that the V.P. refers correctly to the Netherlands, not the Nether Regions.
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at April 16, 2012 05:39 PM (piMMO)
Posted by: cm9000 at April 16, 2012 09:33 PM (MwTP4)
The yolks are a dark yellow instead of a pale yellow. More flavor, and if there is a rooster near by, you get some extra protein.
Posted by: Pink Liberation Theologist at April 16, 2012 05:39 PM (XkVVw)
Posted by: t-bird at April 16, 2012 05:40 PM (FcR7P)
Posted by: Anson Mitchell at April 16, 2012 05:40 PM (IhUxK)
Posted by: steevy at April 16, 2012 05:41 PM (7W3wI)
Posted by: D. Hopper at April 16, 2012 05:41 PM (AVfT8)
Posted by: D. Hopper at April 16, 2012 05:42 PM (AVfT8)
Posted by: nickless at April 16, 2012 05:42 PM (MMC8r)
Posted by: nevergiveup at April 16, 2012 05:43 PM (i6RpT)
Posted by: steevy at April 16, 2012 05:43 PM (7W3wI)
Posted by: steevy at April 16, 2012 05:44 PM (7W3wI)
Posted by: D. Hopper at April 16, 2012 05:44 PM (AVfT8)
Posted by: nevergiveup at April 16, 2012 05:44 PM (i6RpT)
Posted by: Ammo Dump at April 16, 2012 05:44 PM (WUWb9)
Posted by: steevy at April 16, 2012 05:45 PM (7W3wI)
Posted by: baraka obama at April 16, 2012 05:45 PM (FcR7P)
My squadron flew Crusaders, but we were "the Fighting Renegades".
Sounds like this Marine unit has the same attitude.
http://tinyurl.com/d5oz9vm
Posted by: jwb7605 at April 16, 2012 05:46 PM (Qxe/p)
Posted by: D. Hopper at April 16, 2012 05:46 PM (AVfT8)
Posted by: Anson Mitchell at April 16, 2012 05:50 PM (IhUxK)
Posted by: steevy at April 16, 2012 09:41 PM (7W3wI)
Yeah i heard that. Made me sick.
Posted by: nevergiveup at April 16, 2012 09:43 PM (i6RpT)
So true!! A month or so I went on a rant on Dempsey. He's a sellout piece of shit. He and the other members of the JCS should have resigned in disgust more than once during JEF's tenure. Off all the folks who should be upholding the constitution. All of them can go to hell as far as I'm concerned. Careerest motherfuckers who could care less about the troops. Okay, will take a break; but he's a dumb cocksucking commie adoring wet noodle dick who lets Ogabe shove pebbles, rocks, and small boulders up the troops asses and then watches just for fun. Too much? I'm just getting started with that patronizing....
As an old unit commander several times over I'm truly disgusted for what passes as "leadership" at the senior levels of the military today. Mid-grade and lower is outstanding but cannot stand a rotting head too much longer. Did I mention Dempsey is an ass kissing SOB? Met and worked with many Army generals while in NATO (no, I didn't wear a blue helmet, you bastards) and they were top notch. How these turds reach the highest levels is beyond me. Guess the good ones have too much self respect. Dempsey will have to suck a lot of donkey dicks just to get his self respect back, if he ever had any to begin with.
Posted by: Ammo Dump at April 16, 2012 05:55 PM (WUWb9)
AoSHQ Official Style Guide question: is "hippy" or "hippie" the proper singular noun for worthless dreaming unwashed PsOS who solve all the world's problems, but wake up to find the answer is "there are seven levels"?
Since I've annoyed you all with that, here's a nugget of wisdom as a palate cleanser: "If you set a hippie a fire, he will be warm for a day. If you set a hippie afire, he'll be warm for the rest of his life."
Posted by: StPatrick_TN at April 16, 2012 05:56 PM (ND9u8)
Posted by: CAC at April 16, 2012 06:43 PM (CyHXz)
Posted by: Gary Rosen at April 16, 2012 11:36 PM (Kz60W)
Posted by: yanks at April 17, 2012 05:38 AM (yg739)
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What the hell is this from Drudge? Armed citizens arrests?
http://bit.ly/HMQh9e
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at April 16, 2012 04:27 PM (piMMO)