May 09, 2012
— CAC Manning the Ace of Spades HQ Decision Desk, I have been tracking the elections since the beginning of the year, with a daily tracker on the sidebar for several weeks now.
I am pulling North Carolina off the swing state tracker and giving it to Romney. It may somehow be close via a convention bump, but President Obama is not going to carry it. Digging through turnout numbers and the yawning discrepency in some polling, it is clear that his narrow 14,000 vote victory from 2008 will neither be duplicated or expanded.
This is the second state the President will lose that he carried in 2008. Indiana was the first and conceded by his own pushers months ago. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional district is going to Romney as well, so Romney has flipped 26 electoral votes, with six months to go.
I will be updating Wisconsin projections later this week reflecting the record-level turnout amongst Walker supporters. It will bounce about in the next four weeks, and updates at the DD will reflect that, but Walker has rewidened his lead and is currently favored to beat the recall.
Follow me on twitter or search the hashtag #AOSHQDD for polling and projection info as election season continues.
Posted by: CAC at
11:58 AM
| Comments (114)
Post contains 225 words, total size 1 kb.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at May 09, 2012 11:59 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at May 09, 2012 12:01 PM (RD7QR)
Memo to Axelrod: I thought you told me coming out strong for the Rump Rangers would absolutely guarantee me a victory in the toss-up states. It looks like Napolitano's going to be sticking the high-hard one up your squeaker if your prophecy is proven wrong.
Posted by: Baraka O'Evolver at May 09, 2012 12:02 PM (ndqJC)
Posted by: @SOEarpiece at May 09, 2012 12:03 PM (NG097)
Posted by: learflyer at May 09, 2012 12:03 PM (kheK+)
Posted by: Lou at May 09, 2012 12:05 PM (xp1pq)
Posted by: dfbaskwill at May 09, 2012 12:05 PM (71LDo)
Posted by: Shiggz RocketSurgeon at May 09, 2012 12:06 PM (RfvTE)
Posted by: Andy at May 09, 2012 04:05 PM (5Rurq)
Lamb sagwala. Must have some soon.
Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at May 09, 2012 12:06 PM (RD7QR)
Posted by: fluffy at May 09, 2012 12:06 PM (4pSIn)
Posted by: Jose Canseco's Gristle Encased Head at May 09, 2012 12:07 PM (+lsX1)
OT right off.
Get this, the "UN Official" who calls for Mount Rushmore to be given to indians is an indian from New Mexico. :
-----------
And in every one of these news stories, James Anaya's only -only - identification is that he is a "UN official," "the Special Rapporteur" (note the pretentious puffed-up Frenchie rapporteur title, instead of "reporter" in English). That's it. Nothing else. You'd think Anaya is a European international bureaucrat, Swiss maybe, as it's made to look like he has a big office in Geneva.
Folks, the guy is an Indian from Albuquerque. He lives in Tucson, where, as an Affirmative Action Baby, he lectures on "International Human Rights" at the University of Arizona Law School.
Somehow - I'm going out on a limb here - I don't think the headline,Mt. Rushmore Should Be Returned to Native Americans, Native American Teacher in Arizona Says, would generate quite the same media frenzy as one with the UN pretense. That's why every single story on Anaya, without exception, refuses to disclose who he really is. It took me approximately 30 seconds on Google to disclose it for myself.
Posted by: Jimmah at May 09, 2012 12:07 PM (UpwlP)
Posted by: ChristyBlinky Wildbeast Seminole Chick at May 09, 2012 12:07 PM (baL2B)
Posted by: Jean at May 09, 2012 12:08 PM (WkuV6)
Posted by: BurtTC at May 09, 2012 12:09 PM (TOk1P)
Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at May 09, 2012 12:09 PM (RD7QR)
Posted by: joeindc44 says hide your dogs, SCOMDEF's in town at May 09, 2012 12:10 PM (QxSug)
Posted by: Jaydee at May 09, 2012 12:10 PM (5YMB7)
AWESOME.
Now, if I can just convince some of the limp dick idiots in my own Granite State to quit acting like Obama's the bee's knees, maybe we can turn my little state from purple to red, too. As it SHOULD be.
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit and ABO supporter [/i][/b] at May 09, 2012 12:10 PM (4df7R)
Posted by: Dianna at May 09, 2012 12:10 PM (DV/Ik)
Posted by: Miss Teen South Carolina at May 09, 2012 12:11 PM (f1zST)
One less purple state? ....Cool.
But just like snake head James Carville cautioned his fellow Dems today....we shouldn't think that this thing is already in the bag.
I think we need to keep hammering with the "You've been Lied To" narrative. ....The libmedia lied, the Dems lied...and they are still lying.
Things like: "Would you rather have a Job -- or more Lies? ...."You can't eat Lies, and you can't feed your family with them either" ...."They're Lying about the Economy -- does it feel like its better?"
Posted by: wheatie at May 09, 2012 12:12 PM (g4NO6)
Posted by: HeatherRadish™ braucht ein Bier at May 09, 2012 12:12 PM (/kI1Q)
Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at May 09, 2012 04:09 PM (RD7QR)
Its NMWINV smooshed together. Not enough spaces to seperate the state abbreviations.
Posted by: CAC at May 09, 2012 12:12 PM (Dyo1y)
Posted by: dagny at May 09, 2012 12:12 PM (JoL4S)
If the republicans win the White House, women all over America will be forced to care for and maintain their vaginas, and that's not fair.
Posted by: Sandra Fluke at May 09, 2012 12:12 PM (ndqJC)
Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at May 09, 2012 12:13 PM (RD7QR)
Posted by: joeindc44 says hide your dogs, SCOMDEF's in town at May 09, 2012 04:10 PM (QxSug)
Would it be considered poor form to call up a militia to man the borders around NH on election day, to keep the Mass and VT dipshits from sneaking over the border to vote in our elections? Because they WILL do it.
I'd protect against the Mainers, too, but... well... It's Maine. They're more laid back, lazy Welfare leeches, unlike the Mass and VT welfare leeches who are very active and MEAN.
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit and ABO supporter [/i][/b] at May 09, 2012 12:13 PM (4df7R)
I'm thinking about changing my vote because Preznit Obama still hasn't mailed my check for gas and my little mortgage. I'm losing faith in the bro.
Posted by: Peggy Joseph at May 09, 2012 12:14 PM (ndqJC)
It will ungulate in the next four weeks
**
Pffft, I've been ungulating since yesterday afternoon....piker.
Posted by: dananjcon at May 09, 2012 12:14 PM (eavT+)
Whew it's been a looong four years but I think we dodged a bullet here. It seems sheeple are waking up.
Posted by: sonnyspats at May 09, 2012 12:14 PM (bo11P)
Posted by: Desperid Axelrod at May 09, 2012 12:14 PM (ihiOV)
Don't do it! Outsource it!
Posted by: Vaginas R Us - Representing the finest in vagina maintenance since 2012 at May 09, 2012 12:15 PM (sbV1u)
Posted by: Dianna at May 09, 2012 12:15 PM (DV/Ik)
Posted by: mama winger at May 09, 2012 12:15 PM (P6QsQ)
Whew it's been a looong four years but I think we dodged a bullet here. It seems sheeple are waking up.
Posted by: sonnyspats at May 09, 2012 04:14 PM (bo11P)
WAAAAYYYYY too early to celebrate. Celebrate in February of 2013, and only briefly.
Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at May 09, 2012 12:15 PM (RD7QR)
"Undulate," which means to move as a wave in crests and troughs, was perfectly apropos standard English.
Posted by: Lou at May 09, 2012 12:16 PM (xp1pq)
Yes, but their flannel is FABULOUS.
Posted by: Sean Bannion at May 09, 2012 12:16 PM (sbV1u)
Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp at May 09, 2012 12:16 PM (DGIjM)
Posted by: Cicero at May 09, 2012 12:17 PM (QKKT0)
Posted by: dagny at May 09, 2012 04:15 PM (JoL4S)
----
Reminds me of the book "40 more years" Carville put out, only to be proven wrong in 2 years.
Posted by: Jimmah at May 09, 2012 12:17 PM (UpwlP)
Why do the dems think it's in the bag again?
-------
Myopic world view swirled together with overwhelming self-absorbtion.
Posted by: fixerupper at May 09, 2012 12:17 PM (C8hzL)
Posted by: The Mega Independent at May 09, 2012 12:17 PM (ihiOV)
*wince*
Posted by: The AoSHQ House Pedant at May 09, 2012 12:18 PM (QKKT0)
****
You mean like John Edwards?
Posted by: WalrusRex at May 09, 2012 12:18 PM (Hx5uv)
Posted by: Cicero at May 09, 2012 04:17 PM (QKKT0)
Hey, I HOPE that this STD is CHANGING to a less virulent state. See, wingnut?
Posted by: Sandra "Round-Heeled Woman" Fluke at May 09, 2012 12:18 PM (RD7QR)
Posted by: Jimbo at May 09, 2012 12:18 PM (48wze)
"Undulate," which means to move as a wave in crests and troughs, was perfectly apropos standard English.
Posted by: Lou at May 09, 2012 04:16 PM (xp1pq)
I'll give you six seconds to guess why I think that correction works better here at the DD.
Posted by: CAC at May 09, 2012 12:18 PM (Dyo1y)
Would it be considered poor form to call up a militia to man the borders around NH on election day, to keep the Mass and VT dipshits from sneaking over the border to vote in our elections? Because they WILL do it.
Will they have the energy? The Dems need to get out the vote for Sacajawarren.
Watching for charter buses could be time well spent, however.
Posted by: fluffy at May 09, 2012 12:19 PM (4pSIn)
Posted by: HeatherRadish™ braucht ein Bier at May 09, 2012 04:12 PM (/kI1Q)
**
Dil Doe?
Posted by: dananjcon at May 09, 2012 12:19 PM (eavT+)
Posted by: Jimmah at May 09, 2012 12:19 PM (UpwlP)
Posted by: Cicero at May 09, 2012 12:19 PM (QKKT0)
Skin pigment is basically like midichlorians which is why Thomas Sowell is like a Sith Lord. #progthoughts.
Posted by: Shiggz RocketSurgeon at May 09, 2012 12:20 PM (RfvTE)
-----------
We may have to go Lizzie "Old Injun Fighter" Warren on his ass.
Posted by: WalrusRex at May 09, 2012 12:20 PM (Hx5uv)
Posted by: long island at May 09, 2012 12:20 PM (kzp9t)
-------
Threadwinnah right there.....
(you owe me a new monitor.... and the folks in conference room were not ammused by the volume of my guffaws)
Posted by: fixerupper at May 09, 2012 12:20 PM (C8hzL)
Posted by: MaxMBJ at May 09, 2012 12:21 PM (deaac)
Posted by: Jimbo at May 09, 2012 12:21 PM (48wze)
Posted by: sonnyspats at May 09, 2012 12:21 PM (bo11P)
Posted by: Bob Saget at May 09, 2012 12:21 PM (SDkq3)
What do you bet they are kicking themselves for having the convention in NC?
Charlotte, NC is well known for its barbecue. Healthy, high-fibre barbecue.
Posted by: Jay "Cabbage" Carny at May 09, 2012 12:22 PM (4pSIn)
Posted by: MaxMBJ at May 09, 2012 12:24 PM (deaac)
Posted by: Riding Through The Desert at May 09, 2012 12:24 PM (waJ+2)
Charlotte, NC is well known for its barbecue.
Posted by: Jay "Cabbage" Carny at May 09, 2012 04:22 PM (4pSIn)
Lard butt Michael Moore will be in heaven.
Posted by: Doctor Fish ( Posting from Mom's Computer in Texas) at May 09, 2012 12:24 PM (ndqJC)
Charlotte, NC is well known for its barbecue. Healthy, high-fibre barbecue.
*****
Do they use free range dogs?
Posted by: WalrusRex at May 09, 2012 12:25 PM (Hx5uv)
Posted by: Purple Avenger at May 09, 2012 12:26 PM (rzLUk)
Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at May 09, 2012 04:15 PM (RD7QR)
Who said anything about celebrating. I was just expressing releif that it seems the calvary has finally arrived to the fight!
Posted by: sonnyspats at May 09, 2012 12:29 PM (bo11P)
Posted by: Vashta Nerada at May 09, 2012 12:30 PM (F0K0r)
Posted by: dagny at May 09, 2012 12:33 PM (JoL4S)
Posted by: MaxMBJ at May 09, 2012 12:33 PM (deaac)
Posted by: mpfs at May 09, 2012 12:53 PM (iYbLN)
I'm torn.
Would it be better if those self-deluded fools convinced themselves that it was in the bag, and screw up due to overconfidence?
Or would it be better if they decide they're in trouble, prompting fits of narcissistic rage on the part of the NPD-in-chief, causing an epic campaign melt-down?
Maybe it could work either way. Regardles, the NC is great, and I'm happy to see FL the right color again (it was a little scary for a while there).
Posted by: Optimizer at May 09, 2012 01:20 PM (As94z)
Posted by: dagny at May 09, 2012 04:12 PM (JoL4S)
Just saw this.
Nope that's my real name.
I am that Irish.
Posted by: CAC at May 09, 2012 01:32 PM (ApWrt)
Posted by: steevy at May 09, 2012 01:50 PM (7W3wI)
I am also busy thinking what outfit I will wear on that blessed November morning when I vote for Romney as my one and only vote to oust the socialist squirrel back to Chicago where he belongs. After voting I will then swim, shower, put on pj's by noon and commence planning either drinking or sedating myself into a stupor (possibly both!) after a light lunch. I will listen to Rush Limbaugh and then turn off TV and computer, as I simply cannot deal with the stress of exit polls and reporters speculating. I will spend some time on my knees praying for a Romney victory over socialism. I may peek at this blog, after ETOH levels are such that I am feeling frisky. [Please, Ace, for all that is holy, please make sure this site does not crash] I will watch early returns on FOX at 6pm with Bret and the gang while sipping a strong gin martini (wine now retired for high voltage booze). My brave and calm husband will report that things or going well or he is researching farms in Canada.
Should I hear "too close to call" much I will turn TV off and return to my knees (probably swaying from sedation and/or gin---highly recommend Junipero Gin for it's alcohol content and smooth juniperness and anesthesia effects) and pray that we will be saved from a fate worse than death: a second term for SCOAMF and his burly wife, Mooch. I will sleep the sweet and innocent sleep of a drunken baby and will hopefully wake to birds singing and church bells ringing in a new day in America.
Then I will begin planning my open bar for the party on January 20, 2013 (in 255 days) and type of champagne to pop on the exact moment our greenish and emaciated O'Barky slithers up the stairs of Marine One for the last time...physically carried by Secret Servicemen while weeping pitifully, grabbing the rails to prevent his exit, moaning hysterically, with Mooch glaring at reporters at his side. She will no longer be proud of this country, but I will be. Barry will gather himself for a sad and forlorn wave to his few supporters on the WH lawn, no longer hearing the roar of the crowd at the gates over the propellers of the chopper (GOP peasants singing, na na na na, NA NA NA NA, Hey, hey, hey, Goodbye..)This will be one of the most glorious sights I have ever seen on live TV, and I will laugh and laugh and laugh and drink. I may faint from some type of excited heart arrhythmia, but it will be worth it. Well, you get the picture. Fireworks will be involved, hopefully not inside. A Mississippi State cowbell will be rung from the street. Hilarity will ensue and the party will go on into the wee hours in this neighborhood, one of millions in this country. You are all invited. At this precise moment I will exhale and then plan on pestering the GOP relentlessly until they turn this country back to where we were prior to the community organizer doing his thang.
Pray, Morons, pray. If you don't pray, start now or send positive thoughts into the atmosphere. Then vote like you have never done before in history this November, dragging others to the polls with you. We can and will do this for our children and our children's children. We will defeat him.
Posted by: ChristyBlinky Wildbeast Seminole Chick at May 09, 2012 01:51 PM (baL2B)
71 65
Hope is dying in American and the Change is running low too.
Hoping for Change in 2012! (my slogan)
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Next up- Michigan.
Posted by: Exile at May 09, 2012 11:59 AM (O0lVq)