Ace of Spades HQ

June 19, 2012

Analysis of Pennsylvania Undervote Indicates Keystone State Is In Play
— Ace

The "undervote" is the count of people who vote in an election, but choose, for whatever reason, to not vote for a candidate in an uncontested primary, or some no-name.

If Democratic voters come out to vote in Democratic primaries, and dutifully vote for Congressman, AG, and so forth, but elect not to bother voting for Obama, what does that mean?

Mike Flynn says it means trouble for Obama.

[T]hese numbers are based solely on Democrat primary voters. There are no Republican or Independent voters in this. This is Obama's base. That said, look at the map above, in only about three counties is he winning the support of more than 90% of Democrat voters in an uncontested primary. In over 27 counties, he is winning less than 70%. In a few counties, he is winning 55%.
Our old rule of thumb was that any undervote more than 20% was a reason to go to DefCon 1. It signaled a serious problem with the base and would necessitate our adapting campaign strategy and tactics to shore up our support. I have never seen a situation where a candidate had an undervote of 30-40% and went on to win the general election. In fact, in such situations, we would often pull out of the race entirely.

One caveat here is that Obama's lowest undervote percentages are in the Philadelphia area, and those infamous Bucks County suburbs that put the Democratic candidate on top in every recent presidential election. Those are the most populous counties (well, those and Pittsburgh), so a county-by-county analysis is worse for Obama than the actual statewide undervote. In the Philly area, the undervote is, it is said (this disagrees with Flynn) "well within historical norms," and is only 15% or thereabouts.

But that means that statewide it's higher, around 20% or so, or more.

Over at the liberal New Republic, analyst William Galston puts Pennsylvania in the swing column, and that was before this data was published.

The latest Quinnipiac survey gives the president a 6-point edge (46-40), but his support remains well below 50 percent, as it has in most previous surveys for the past six months. ObamaÂ’s job approval among Pennsylvanians stands at only 46, versus 49 percent who disapprove of his performance as president. Forty-eight percent think he deserves to be reelected, while 47 percent do not. And 56 percent are dissatisfied with the way things are going in their state, versus 43 percent who are satisfied.
At this point, the odds still favor an Obama victory in Pennsylvania this November. But the evidence suggests that Romney has a shot in the stateÂ—and Romney himself seems to think so.

Southwestern Pennsylvania shares some commonalities with bordering West Virginia, including coal, and voters who are socially conservative but economically in favor of big government's allegedly helping hand.

It also now features a significant undervote for President Obama, and perhaps a growing desire on the part of Democrats to skip the presidential race entirely.

Three Democrats from West Virginia, including first-term Sen. Joe Manchin, are skipping the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C. this September, where President Obama will formally receive the party's presidential nomination.
The West Virginia Democratic Party told reporters Monday that in addition to Manchin, Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin and Rep. Nick Rahall do not plan to join West Virginia's delegation. State Party Chair Larry Puccio said Sen. Jay Rockefeller will attend and will serve as the group's honorary chair.
Mr. Obama is unpopular in the state and lost 41 percent of the West Virginia primary vote to a convicted felon. Manchin -- who faces his own re-election battle this year -- has said he's not sure he'll vote for Mr. Obama.

He says he'll just stay home and keep working for West Virginia, or something.

Posted by: Ace at 09:45 AM | Comments (138)
Post contains 653 words, total size 4 kb.

1 My God, it's full of posts!

Posted by: Dave Bowman at June 19, 2012 09:05 AM (GnKed)

2 SCOAMF!

Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp at June 19, 2012 09:06 AM (DGIjM)

3 Studies show undervoting by Democrats result in a Nitrogen rich environment and lack of voter fraud.

Posted by: Vic at June 19, 2012 09:07 AM (YdQQY)

4 I'm pretty sure voter fraud in Philly and Pittsburgh can overcome any red tide in greater PA

when flipping a state from blue to red, you have to win bigger than the margin of cheating from the blue side

Posted by: Jones in CO at June 19, 2012 09:08 AM (8sCoq)

5 bitter clingers strike again.

Posted by: Rustynca at June 19, 2012 09:11 AM (8J5Ck)

6 I am stuck to the bottom of my desk drawer. Pass the chisel!

Posted by: Captain FAPtastical at June 19, 2012 09:46 AM (/pd0C)

7 Data will fuck you over! Hard! She is a cruel bitch!

Posted by: Crazy guy in a lab coat at June 19, 2012 09:48 AM (Ky1+e)

8 There's no need to fear, Undervote is here!

Posted by: Undervote at June 19, 2012 09:49 AM (vfaO9)

9 Racists.

Posted by: Walter Freeman at June 19, 2012 09:49 AM (kqGWM)

10 He says he'll just stay home and ~~keep working for West Virginia~~ pray Obama never visits WV in 2012, or something.

Posted by: rd at June 19, 2012 09:49 AM (9sUlj)

11 I predict that Manchin will switch parties if there is a Republican wave in November.

Posted by: Ghost of Lee Atwater at June 19, 2012 09:51 AM (JxMoP)

12 That top gray box thing has like nine or ten numbers in it. Is that even allowed?

Posted by: Dang - peering over the top of his spectacles at June 19, 2012 09:51 AM (Ky1+e)

off

Posted by: Ghost of Lee Atwater at June 19, 2012 09:52 AM (JxMoP)

14 Damn italics. My neck is killing me!

Posted by: Dang at June 19, 2012 09:52 AM (Ky1+e)

When 40% of your party votes for a Felon, in Jail, in another State, instead of you on the Primary?

You've got problems.

I actualy think Obama was vulnerable to a Primary Challenge, if someone had bothered to step up...

This whole Dem Racial Groups who vote in lock step thing? leaves out the White Male voter.... which is still, along with White Women, one of the two biggest Demographics.... and one in which Metro Obama is NOT doing well.

Posted by: Romeo13 at June 19, 2012 09:54 AM (lZBBB)

16 @13: How can Ewoks count well with only two fingers and a thumb?!

Posted by: Walter Freeman at June 19, 2012 09:54 AM (kqGWM)

17 5 I'm pretty sure voter fraud in Philly and Pittsburgh can overcome any red tide in greater PA

Posted by: Jones in CO at June 19, 2012 01:08 PM (8sCoq)

I hear ya and don't mean to underestimate the seriousness of fraud, but then how did Toomey and Corbett win?

Posted by: Uncledave at June 19, 2012 09:55 AM (nJ32z)

18 12 I predict that Manchin will switch parties if there is a Republican wave in November. Posted by: Ghost of Lee Atwater at June 19, 2012 01:51 PM (JxMoP) That asshole would switch sexes if it benefitted him politically. I can't stand that two faced fuck. How his constituents couldn't see though that I have no idea.

Posted by: Andreas mick Jaggeresque vaginal lips. at June 19, 2012 09:55 AM (9TTOe)

19 but, but...Romney says Wawas instead of Wawa, so sorry, kids, BOOM there goes Pennsylvania back in the His Highness bucket!

Posted by: Tommy Christopher at June 19, 2012 09:56 AM (jm/9g)

The WV democratic party is just being carbon concious and environmentally aware. They do not believe that burning all that gasoline driving 270 miles from Charleston WV to Charlotte is environmentally friendly.

Being seen with Obama is not environmentally friendly and is especially hostile to their re-election environment,

Posted by: rd at June 19, 2012 09:56 AM (9sUlj)

Posted by: Walter Freeman at June 19, 2012 01:54 PM (kqGWM)

Base SIX Baby!!!!

Posted by: Ewok Mathemtician at June 19, 2012 09:56 AM (lZBBB)

22
Manchin has a set o' balls on him, too.

What a slick fuck he is. Talks like Jim DeMint, votes like Dick Durbin.

Posted by: soothsayer at June 19, 2012 09:56 AM (9Q7Nu)

23 The Heliosheath of Justice will prevent an Obama win in November. These numbers bear that out.

Posted by: Dr Spank at June 19, 2012 09:56 AM (I/Xad)

24 My calcified cooter tells me that Obama has it in the bag. And that Romney is out of touch.

Posted by: Andrea Bitchell at June 19, 2012 09:57 AM (MMC8r)

25 Hey, aren't you going to wait and greet him? Huh? It won't be long now. When the Great Pumpkin comes, I'll still put in a good word for you!

Posted by: Linus at June 19, 2012 09:57 AM (ZzzNj)

Damn.

How many posts can an Ewok post if he posts his posts one handed?

Posted by: garrett at June 19, 2012 09:57 AM (X49XP)

27 Damn sock

Posted by: Oldsailors Poet, Team Dagny at June 19, 2012 09:57 AM (9TTOe)

28 In PA we can vote on the touchscreen at our neighborhood Wawa. Romney takes PA!

Posted by: jeannebodine at June 19, 2012 09:57 AM (xI+jL)

It's not a fucking Hoagie.

It's called a wedge.

Posted by: garrett at June 19, 2012 09:57 AM (X49XP)

30 I'm now of the opinion that Obama voters are:

1. ) Stupid.
2. ) America haters
3. ) Deaf, Dumb AND blind (looking for a pinball machine).

Posted by: © Sponge at June 19, 2012 09:58 AM (UK9cE)

31
Manchin sees the obvious, though. The DNC convention in NC is gonna be a trainwreck.

Posted by: soothsayer at June 19, 2012 09:59 AM (9Q7Nu)

32 I'm pretty sure voter fraud in Philly and Pittsburgh can overcome any red tide in greater PA Posted by: Jones in CO at June 19, 2012 01:08 PM (8sCoq) Yeah, bullshit. We thought that too.

Posted by: Madison, Milwaukee and Kenosha on June 5th. at June 19, 2012 09:59 AM (lQszg)

33 Damn.
How many posts can an Ewok post if he posts his posts one handed?

Posted by: garrett at June 19, 2012 01:57 PM (X49XP)

An ewok could post as many posts as an ewok could post if an ewok could post posts.

And if that's not enough he can double post

Posted by: The Jackhole at June 19, 2012 10:00 AM (nTgAI)

34 Manchin -- who faces his own re-election battle this year -- has said he's not sure he'll vote for Mr. Obama. John Reese should point out that WV can survive Manchin voting for Obama in the poll booth. It can't survive his voting for Obama's measures in Congress.

Posted by: Ken at June 19, 2012 10:01 AM (ayCbQ)

35 31 I'm now of the opinion that Obama voters are: 1. ) Stupid. 2. ) America haters 3. ) Deaf, Dumb AND blind (looking for a pinball machine). Posted by: Â© Sponge at June 19, 2012 01:58 PM (UK9cE) I think most of it is laziness. Figuring shit out is work. Do I want to read blogs or do shooters in a bar full of vapid fucks like myself? Fortunatly most Rons are multitaskers and are capable of both.

Posted by: Oldsailors Poet, Team Dagny at June 19, 2012 10:01 AM (9TTOe)

36 Pennsylvania has always been that chick that smiles you into dinner and drinks and never puts out. I'm not getting all hopey that this time she'll invite us up for a nightcap.

Posted by: MikeTheMoose Lite! 98% Anger Free! at June 19, 2012 10:01 AM (0q2P7)

37 @22: "Base SIX Baby!!!!" Consider me adequately amused by your geekery, sir.

Posted by: Walter Freeman at June 19, 2012 10:02 AM (kqGWM)

38 RE: the undervote not as strong in the Philly collar counties...remember these are the party faithful that dutifully show up at uncontested primaries to vote for their man: the Swarthmore arugula set, the Council Rock teachers, the Delco union mob: i.e. all those who are invested in keeping Hope and Change alive. The Philly burbs turn out a pretty solid independent vote, and their preference is not included in these numbers.

Posted by: kallisto at June 19, 2012 10:02 AM (jm/9g)

39 There haven't been this many posts since Bill Clinton was president!

Posted by: Cricket at June 19, 2012 10:02 AM (DrC22)

40 My barometer for how the presidential race is going is looking at number of comments in the threads over at Daily Kooks.

I would venture a guess their traffic is down to about half of what it was a few years ago. They just don't have the fire in backing that miserable JEF.

I predict this will be a landslide for Romney. The left just doesn't have it in them this time because Barry is such a fuck up.

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at June 19, 2012 10:02 AM (f9c2L)

41 Western PA region total (including Allegheny which will be blue) will go to Romney by a net 5-10k. That doesn't sound like much, but it is fucking huge- no Republican has won Western PA as a region since 1972, not even Reagan in 80 or 84. That part of the state has been trending for a very long time to us. The trick is getting the SAME voters to do so in NEPA, thereby building on Bush's lead in the T. You do that, you come up with +400k in the T, and +7500 in metro Pitt. Then you fight to win the exurbs around Philly, then the burbs. There aren't enough voters in Philadelphia, real, real dead, or fake, to overcome a deficit IF Romney flips Bucks, Chester, and holds Obama's margins to 8% in Montgomery and Delaware. Shorter CAC: I'VE BEEN FUCKING SAYING THIS FOR A FUCKING YEAR AND NOW EVERYONE FUCKING WAKES UP????

Posted by: CAC at June 19, 2012 10:02 AM (lQszg)

42 I'm telling you, save for 4 counties, Obama is utterly despised in PA.

Oh, and PA has 67 counties.

Posted by: Jay at June 19, 2012 10:03 AM (3LaGb)

43 Posted by: Vic at June 19, 2012 01:07 PM (YdQQY)

Only after the bodies of all the Democrats rot.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at June 19, 2012 10:03 AM (nEUpB)

Barack Obama is Steamy Coleslaw on a Mayonnaise Falafel !

Posted by: Mitt Romney's WaWa Sammich at June 19, 2012 10:03 AM (A3zgF)

45 .I hear ya and don't mean to underestimate the seriousness of fraud, but then how did Toomey and Corbett win?

Posted by: Uncledave at June 19, 2012 01:55 PM (nJ32z)

I give: how?

all seriousness aside, I suspect voter fraud in the Nov election will be widespread

Posted by: Jones in CO at June 19, 2012 10:04 AM (8sCoq)

46 I'VE BEEN FUCKING SAYING THIS FOR A FUCKING YEAR AND NOW EVERYONE FUCKING WAKES UP????

Maybe if you posted a picture of the state of Pennsylvania to remind us what it looks like.

Posted by: EC at June 19, 2012 10:04 AM (GQ8sn)

47 Posted by: CAC at June 19, 2012 02:02 PM (lQszg)

You do realize that we are called Morons for a reason?

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at June 19, 2012 10:04 AM (nEUpB)

48
Who cares about PA.

We need to win OH.

And we need that senate seat in MO if we want to take the Senate.

Posted by: soothsayer at June 19, 2012 10:05 AM (9Q7Nu)

49 I prefer side-vote to under-vote. But diff'rent strokes for diff'rent folks.

Posted by: red sweater at June 19, 2012 10:05 AM (Xwgt3)

50 OT, Hamas is firing Rockets into Israel again. WTF.

Posted by: Oldsailors Poet, Team Dagny at June 19, 2012 10:05 AM (9TTOe)

51 >>>They just don't have the fire

I hear that's a side effect of choom.

Posted by: MikeTheMoose Lite! 98% Anger Free! at June 19, 2012 10:05 AM (0q2P7)

52 We really need to be careful about predicting a "landslide." The other day, IBD had a piece that made me a bit nervous: It's titled: Obama's Naked Pandering To Illegals http://tinyurl.com/cbq8jbn It compares what Obama just did, to what Chavez did (and won because of it) in 2004. excerpt: "But it's the time frame that really gives the game away: The relief from deportation orders will be meted out in two-year increments, timed precisely with each election cycle. That way, Democrats can tell the Latino lobby to either mobilize the vote for them Â— or the amnesty goodies end. This is no different from banana-republic politicos buying votes for bags of beans. Obama's gambit is in fact straight from Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, who, facing a tight recall referendum in 2004, handed citizenship to 2 million illegal immigrants in Venezuela to secure votes, and with Jimmy Carter's help, won. It's also been done in that other banana-republic, California, where in 2003, Democratic Gov. Gray Davis offered drivers licenses to millions of illegals to secure Latino votes for his own recall referendum. It maddened California's voters and Davis was booted. Obama is betting that America's voters will behave more like Venezuelans than Californians, but the tragic thing is that he's harming the interests of the country." Really creepy stuff imo. And, we really do not know what else this administration is capable of. They really are capable of just about anything. They might even try to hold off elections - due to a "world crisis." They will do whatever they (think) they can get away with.

Posted by: pause at June 19, 2012 10:05 AM (HOOye)

53 Erie County, Allegheny County, the city of Scranton, Montgomery County, Delaware County, and Philadelphia. Hold Obama to JUST this, and you win by 2-4%. With fraud. But hey, what do I know. IVE JUST BEEN SCREAMING ABOUT PENNSYLVANIA FOR A FUCKING YEAR. So, you know. Don't listen to me.

Posted by: CAC at June 19, 2012 10:05 AM (lQszg)

54 45
Barack Obama isSteamy Coleslaw on a Mayonnaise Falafel !

Posted by: Mitt Romney's WaWa Sammich at June 19, 2012 02:03 PM (A3zgF)

Garnished with Andrea Mitchell's crotch crickets!

Posted by: model_1066 at June 19, 2012 10:06 AM (YbQJm)

55 >I'm telling you, save for 4 counties, Obama is utterly despised in PA.

Oh, and PA has 67 counties.

Posted by: Jay at June 19, 2012 02:03 PM (3LaGb)

yes, but those 4 counties only have to 'find' enough votes or 'register' enough 'voters' to defeat the other 63

Posted by: Jones in CO at June 19, 2012 10:07 AM (8sCoq)

56 Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable tyrant.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at June 19, 2012 10:07 AM (8y9MW)

57 Win Bucks Co. with a margin, win Pennsylvania, win the Whitehouse.

We've been seeing some good signs that this could happen, but chickens only count when they've hatched.

I'll say this - I know players in the upper echelon of both parties in Bucks, and the consensus is that the down ballot candidates will be running away from Obama, not with him in 2012.

N.B. Bucks also turned out Patrick Murphy in favor of Mike Fitzpatrick in 2010 (Murphy beat Fitz in 2006 by 1200 votes, then Fitz took it back in 2010 by 18,000 votes or so). Hopefully MontCo can get it's act together.

All good signs, together with a Republican Controller in Philadelphia (Alan Butkovitz), the office charged with ensuring free and fair elections, which should cut down on the built-in fraud advantage in favor of Obumbles.

Posted by: Alec Leamas at June 19, 2012 10:07 AM (mg08E)

58
...how did Toomey and Corbett win?

Balls-to-the-wall GOP turnout in an off-year election cycle combined with a strong anti-incumbent mood.

2012 is gonna be a lot different. Much bigger challenge for the GOP.

Posted by: soothsayer at June 19, 2012 10:07 AM (9Q7Nu)

59 But hey, what do I know. IVE JUST BEEN SCREAMING ABOUT PENNSYLVANIA FOR A FUCKING YEAR.

So, you know. Don't listen to me.
Posted by: CAC at June 19, 2012 02:05 PM (lQszg)

It's like when you walk down the street and ignore the guy yelling on the corner about the end of days......

You look the other way and pretend he's not there. No offense.

Posted by: © Sponge at June 19, 2012 10:07 AM (UK9cE)

60 because Barry is such a fuck up.

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at June 19, 2012 02:02 PM (f9c2L)

WHAT???!?!!! YOU DARE INSULT ME OR MY PEOPLE!!!!!

Posted by: A fuck up at June 19, 2012 10:07 AM (ZzzNj)

61 I give: how? all seriousness aside, I suspect voter fraud in the Nov election will be widespread

Posted by: Jones in CO at June 19, 2012 02:04 PM (8sCoq)

Why wouldn't the dems have had set their fraud machine on ludicrous speed for the most recent governor and senate elections? With redistricting on the line a lot was at stake.

Posted by: Uncledave at June 19, 2012 10:07 AM (nJ32z)

62 37 Pennsylvania has always been that chick that smiles you into dinner and drinks and never puts out. I'm not getting all hopey that this time she'll invite us up for a nightcap.

THIS

Posted by: kelley in virginia at June 19, 2012 10:07 AM (p3a8+)

63 CAC, please tone down the anger, that's not what we're about.

Posted by: Dr Spank at June 19, 2012 10:07 AM (I/Xad)

64 We need to win OH. And we need that senate seat in MO if we want to take the Senate. Posted by: soothsayer at June 19, 2012 02:05 PM (9Q7Nu) We have the senate seat. Fuck PPP, other firms show it for what it is- McCaskill is on borrowed time. As for Ohio, last 3 polls rolling show Romney leading there and its more favorable than Virginia or Colorado. We NEED 269 electoral votes (since we control the House) We have 235 electoral votes. Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan. Romney snags two of them, he's President. Game over. He'd be wise to simply camp in those three for the next month just to take more wind out of Obama's team.

Posted by: CAC at June 19, 2012 10:08 AM (lQszg)

65 It's titled: Obama's Naked Pandering To Illegals ----- I prefer him in shorts

Posted by: Cricket at June 19, 2012 10:08 AM (DrC22)

66 CAC, what is your take on Corbett? I have to admit I am not pleased with him.

Posted by: goddessoftheclassroom at June 19, 2012 10:08 AM (eJ0Ce)

67 It's like when you walk down the street and ignore the guy yelling on the corner about the end of days...... You look the other way and pretend he's not there. No offense. Posted by: Â© Sponge at June 19, 2012 02:07 PM (UK9cE) If the guy was screaming this in between painting tits and eating bacon, you'd still ignore him?

Posted by: CAC at June 19, 2012 10:09 AM (lQszg)

68 >OT, Hamas is firing Rockets into Israel again. WTF.

Posted by: Oldsailors Poet, Team Dagny at June 19, 2012 02:05 PM (9TTOe)

In other news: water found to be wet; dog bites man; Chris Matthews to fellate President

Posted by: Jones in CO at June 19, 2012 10:09 AM (8sCoq)

I don't think you can generalize since conditions are much different in the primaries than in the general. First, unlike in the primary, the New Black Panthers will be out in force in front of the polling stations (if not the polling booths) on November 6. Second, a lot of dependable democrat voters sit out the primaries but show up in November. Speaking of which, anybody else looking forward ot the next season of The Walking Dead?

Posted by: Dirks Strewn at June 19, 2012 10:09 AM (VLifP)

70 GIGANTIC red tide invades PA and causes Democrats to reopen the graveyards for ZOMBIE voters!

Posted by: Vic at June 19, 2012 10:09 AM (YdQQY)

71 It's titled: Obama's Naked Pandering To Illegals

-----

I prefer him in ~~shorts~~ prison.

Posted by: Cricket at June 19, 2012 02:08 PM (DrC22)

Fixed.

Posted by: © Sponge at June 19, 2012 10:09 AM (UK9cE)

72 Well it looks like coal does have global consequences. It's going to make the JEF a one termer.

Posted by: Buzzsaw at June 19, 2012 10:09 AM (tf9Ne)

73 Or..... the undervote is the number of drunks they --The Democrats-- paid to go vote in the contested election. IOW the bums will not vote in an election they were not paid to vote in- with booze, cigarettes or showers.

Posted by: Sarah Jessica Parker at June 19, 2012 10:10 AM (r2PLg)

74 What does CAC say about this? I haven't heard him comment on PA.

Posted by: nickless at June 19, 2012 10:10 AM (MMC8r)

75 If the guy was screaming this in between painting tits and eating bacon, you'd still ignore him?
Posted by: CAC at June 19, 2012 02:09 PM (lQszg)

Well, that's different. Tits and bacon make the world go round, so you'd HAVE to acknowledge at that point.

Posted by: © Sponge at June 19, 2012 10:10 AM (UK9cE)

76 And yes Democrat primary candidates do pay for votes against each other-- it's a "fraud-off". Especially in Philly-please.

Posted by: Sarah Jessica Parker at June 19, 2012 10:12 AM (r2PLg)

I'm one of those Philly-area undervotes. I'm registered Dem only for pragmatic reasons. If you're registered R and try to get any kind of city service, good luck. I haven't voted D in a general election since Clinton in '96 when I was young and dumb...not that it matters much around here.

Anyways, I'm wondering if the undervote numbers in my area are just a reflection of the lack of choices on the D side. Obama ran unopposed, as did virtually every candidate on the ballot. I think I only cast one vote, for some judge (I could never vote for SCMOAF even in this situation). There simply wasn't much reason for a Dem voter to show up on primary day, not even to cast a love vote for Zero.

Anecdotally, I'm not sure if Zero can get the 500,000 vote city margin he needs without the feared massive fraud. Those white trade union guys who voted for him last time aren't gonna do so again (or at least most of them won't).

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at June 19, 2012 10:12 AM (YmPwQ)

78
We have the senate seat.

~~I hope~~ you better be right.

Posted by: soothsayer at June 19, 2012 10:12 AM (9Q7Nu)

If the guy was screaming this in between painting tits and eating bacon, you'd still ignore him?

CAC, a plaid map is all we ask. It's instant credibility with us.

But, tits and bacon wouldn't hurt. Just sayin'...

Posted by: BackwardsBoy at June 19, 2012 10:12 AM (d0Tfm)

80 What does CAC say about this? I haven't heard him comment on PA.

Eh. He probably thinks it's solid blue and we shouldn't bother.

Posted by: The Mega Independent at June 19, 2012 10:12 AM (ZzzNj)

81 I hear ya and don't mean to underestimate the seriousness of fraud, but then how did Toomey and Corbett win? Posted by: Uncledave at June 19, 2012 01:55 PM (nJ32z) It's not a toomey!

Posted by: Detective John Kimble at June 19, 2012 10:13 AM (136wp)

82 Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan. Romney snags two of them, he's President. Game over. He'd be wise to simply camp in those three for the next month just to take more wind out of Obama's team.

Posted by: CAC at June 19, 2012 02:08 PM (lQszg)

I would think WI is a better pick-up opportunity than either PA or MI, no?

Posted by: Uncledave at June 19, 2012 10:13 AM (nJ32z)

83 If the guy was screaming this in between painting tits and eating bacon, you'd still ignore him? Posted by: CAC at June 19, 2012 02:09 PM (lQszg) ***** CAC...don't be so hard on yourself.

Posted by: Sarah Jessica Parker at June 19, 2012 10:14 AM (r2PLg)

84 I wonder about N-Eastern PA. My nephew recently married a girl from Hazelton. At the wedding I was stunned at the open dislike for Obama among the family members and local guests. Then there was the anger about illegal immigration. I dunno.

Posted by: Margarita DeVille at June 19, 2012 10:14 AM (C8mVl)

85 30 It's not a fucking Hoagie. It's called a wedge. Posted by: garrett at June 19, 2012 01:57 PM (X49XP) I prefer "Hero"

Posted by: Wedge Antilles at June 19, 2012 10:14 AM (XvHmy)

86 Mmmmm Mmmm mm m mmmmmmmmmm mmmmmmmm*mm mm m mmmmmmmm mmmmmm.

Posted by: Spider with a glued mouth, slowly starving at June 19, 2012 10:15 AM (cv5Iw)

87 88 30 It's not a fucking Hoagie. It's called a wedge. Posted by: garrett at June 19, 2012 01:57 PM (X49XP) I prefer "Hero" Posted by: Wedge Antilles at June 19, 2012 02:14 PM (XvHmy I prefer "Sub"

Posted by: Namor at June 19, 2012 10:15 AM (136wp)

88 >>>it's a "fraud-off".

Well it is an essential Democrat campaigning skill. So I can see why they want it factored in.

Posted by: MikeTheMoose Lite! 98% Anger Free! at June 19, 2012 10:15 AM (0q2P7)

89 Damn Sockpuppet, he speaks the truth. You literally have to be a registered Dem or you are treated like crap in Philadelphia. I am still D registered. I lived in town for many years and *I* was always on the CC voter rolls - oddly, my Indy-registered husband was not. He isn't even registered Repub! I guess I think the fraud/paid voters/created voters are not taken out except for special occasions. So I'm not too excited about the undervote thing Our Voter ID law stands, maybe there's a chance. PA is a state full of govt clients

Posted by: BlackOrchid-TeamDagny at June 19, 2012 10:15 AM (SB0V2)

90 CAC, a plaid map is all we ask. It's instant credibility with us.

But, tits and bacon wouldn't hurt. Just sayin'...

If not plaid, then paisleys. Possibly painted on the tits with a brush made with bacon.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at June 19, 2012 10:16 AM (8y9MW)

91 Romney's money would be better spent in-- Ohio, Florida, Nevada...hell Colorado. PA is ...hell0they haven't voted for the Republican in some - 20 years. IIRC But we always gotta waste our bucks there--somehow the TV ad money will also get us Jersey is the usual "reasoning". pfffft.

Posted by: Sarah Jessica Parker at June 19, 2012 10:16 AM (r2PLg)

This undervote article makes me hot. (Just the antidote to that horrid Greenspan/Mitchell sex tape image that came from the last thread.)

Posted by: kallisto at June 19, 2012 10:16 AM (jm/9g)

93 Balls-to-the-wall GOP turnout in an off-year election cycle combined with a strong anti-incumbent mood.

2012 is gonna be a lot different. Much bigger challenge for the GOP.

Posted by: soothsayer at June 19, 2012 02:07 PM (9Q7Nu)

-----------------------------------------------

It's my thinking, considering what happened in WI, that the GOP and the voters are pretty jacked up about the election.

One or more whoppers like Baraka's immigration edict will really fire everyone up. And we know the SCOAMT has more of his little surprises in store for this nation.

Posted by: Soona at June 19, 2012 10:18 AM (58frh)

94 Jeezuz gawd just realized I'm posting as Sarah. Jessica. Parker.

Posted by: tasker at June 19, 2012 10:18 AM (r2PLg)

95 97 Jeezuz gawd just realized I'm posting as Sarah. Jessica. Parker. Posted by: tasker at June 19, 2012 02:18 PM (r2PLg) Quit horsing around

Posted by: Mr Ed at June 19, 2012 10:19 AM (136wp)

96 We have Florida, NC, IN, NE2. We have 235 electoral votes. Colorado gets you 9 evs. VA 13. NV 6. I'd rather us get 36 EV's from MI+PA or 34 from MI+OH or 38 from OH+PA or 54 from OH+MI+PA. There is a reason Romney launching his bus tour in these states and not scattering himself across the south and southwest. The states in the south hes going to win for sure he already has, and the rest are tiny.

Posted by: CAC at June 19, 2012 10:20 AM (lQszg)

97 It's not a fucking Hoagie.
It's called a wedge.
Posted by: garrett at June 19, 2012 01:57 PM (X49XP)

I prefer "Hero"
Posted by: Wedge Antilles at June 19, 2012 02:14 PM (XvHmy

I prefer "Sub"

Posted by: Namor at June 19, 2012 02:15 PM (136wp)

----------------------------------------------

I prefer "sammich".

Posted by: Soona at June 19, 2012 10:21 AM (58frh)

98 Posted by: tasker at June 19, 2012 02:18 PM (r2PLg)

I kept re-reading them for some meta equine stuff and it wasn't happening.

Posted by: The Mega Independent at June 19, 2012 10:21 AM (ZzzNj)

99 Nevada will be expensive as hell to turn around, for 6 electoral votes. PA, MI, OH just as expensive but with three times the payoff. Yeah. Lets not focus on the midwest. Lets keep digging into our scrotal hairs for some better strategy.

Posted by: CAC at June 19, 2012 10:22 AM (lQszg)

100

Posted by: Uncledave at June 19, 2012 01:55 PM (nJ32z)

***

As I understand it, the "T"-zone doesn't release its returns until very late in the evening so as not to give a heads up to the Philly fraudsters. That's why the returns showed an even race between Sestak-Toomey until very late in the night when the T-zone numbers came rolling in.

Posted by: kallisto at June 19, 2012 10:22 AM (jm/9g)

101 Hey, what about me?

Posted by: Grinder at June 19, 2012 10:22 AM (O/RV5)

102 #103 Actually returns showed a big lead for Sestak- until Western and Central PA rolled in and flipped it.

Posted by: CAC at June 19, 2012 10:22 AM (lQszg)

103
Isn't Pelosi planning on retiring after one more term? I suspect she will, unless the Democrats win the House.

Posted by: soothsayer at June 19, 2012 10:22 AM (9Q7Nu)

104 Three Democrats from West Virginia, including first-term Sen. Joe Manchin, are skipping the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C. this September

Really? I thought maybe they were protesting the vote against gay marriage NC

Posted by: Cheetohs Jhonsno at June 19, 2012 10:24 AM (Y+DPZ)

105 >>>They might even try to hold off elections - due to a "world crisis."

No precedent for not holding the election. He would risk the entire progressive agenda doing that. The progs wouldn't let him.

Posted by: MikeTheMoose Lite! 98% Anger Free! at June 19, 2012 10:25 AM (0q2P7)

106

Posted by: CAC at June 19, 2012 02:22 PM (lQszg)

***

I was listening to an election returns radio show that featured commentary by Rick Santorum. Maybe at the time I tuned in the race had already evened out. Or it could be that I totally misremembered because my brain does turn to mush from time to time.

Posted by: kallisto at June 19, 2012 10:25 AM (jm/9g)

107 Isn't Pelosi planning on retiring after one more term? I suspect she will, unless the Democrats win the House.

Posted by: soothsayer at June 19, 2012 02:22 PM (9Q7Nu)

------------------------------------------------

I would almost consider that a pudding dipping event. Whether she gets voted out or she retires, it'll be nice to get rid of that scrunt.

Posted by: Soona at June 19, 2012 10:26 AM (58frh)

108

Don't forget that Obama's EPA has been devastating the coal industry and is trying to clamp down on the fracking. If the union guys out there still vote Dem then they deserve what they get. Unfortunately the rest of us will get it too.

BTW...the New Black Panthers thing...I've never seen them in my neighborhood, nor can I say that even in this heavily Democratic ward that I've seen an attempt at voter intimidation by anyone. Usually there are a bunch of bored-looking union guys who try to hand you a leaflet on the way in. And even if there were a bat-brandishing Panther standing in front of the polling -place, I'm gonna walk right around him and vote for Romney.

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at June 19, 2012 10:27 AM (YmPwQ)

109 103- Don't know if it's true, but I hear the Virginia GOP will try to do the same, i.e., delay the red district returns so NoVa won't know how much to cheat.

Posted by: Margarita DeVille at June 19, 2012 10:27 AM (C8mVl)

110 I kept re-reading them for some meta equine stuff and it wasn't happening. Posted by: The Mega Independent at June 19, 2012 02:21 PM (ZzzNj) ********** Sorry.

Posted by: tasker at June 19, 2012 10:28 AM (r2PLg)

111

Oh, and it's a hoagie.

And cheeseteak. American, wit.

Thank you.

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at June 19, 2012 10:29 AM (YmPwQ)

112 Romney can win PA, as CAC has said. Luzerne, Lehigh, and Northampton Counties, I believe will be the key to winning, provided Romney wins Bucks and Chester Counties. Romney wins those counties, and as CAC said keeps it close in Montco and Delaware, game over for Barky.

Posted by: Jim Scrummy at June 19, 2012 10:30 AM (sbV1u)

113 110- " it'll be nice to get rid of that scrunt." Oh no. She's one of the best advertisements against the Dems we've got. Seriously. I know lefties who find her embarrassing. They agree with her 100%, but .....

Posted by: Margarita DeVille at June 19, 2012 10:31 AM (C8mVl)

114 Pennsylvania = Lucy with football
GOP hopes = Charlie Brown

Posted by: Jones in CO at June 19, 2012 10:31 AM (8sCoq)

115 117 Pennsylvania = Lucy with football GOP hopes = Charlie Brown Posted by: Jones in CO at June 19, 2012 02:31 PM (8sCoq) ********* Correct. Although CAC had a good line--something like - This time we break her knee caps first --then kick the ball. Still PA hasn't voted "R" in a Presidential election for some- 20 years.

Posted by: tasker at June 19, 2012 10:33 AM (r2PLg)

116 Wisconsin people, Wisconsin!

We're talking about PA being the girl who won't go home with us after buying her drinks. Meanwhile, Wisconsin just fucked us dry and is begging for more.

And WI is kind of sexy, whereas PA is just a lumpy rectangle.

Posted by: Uncledave at June 19, 2012 10:37 AM (nJ32z)

117 117 Pennsylvania = Lucy with football GOP hopes = Charlie Brown Posted by: Jones in CO at June 19, 2012 02:31 PM (8sCoq) PA = LeBron James GOP Hopes = Cleveland

Posted by: Mr Ed at June 19, 2012 10:37 AM (136wp)

118 Part of Holder's job on election day will be keeping Philly polling places open as long as it takes to create enough votes for Obama to take it.

Posted by: SamIam at June 19, 2012 10:47 AM (VDpzM)

119 Come on Pennsylvania just one more time for the gipper.

Posted by: mpfs at June 19, 2012 10:51 AM (iYbLN)

120 I think CAC is correct about PA. Romney is going to get PA and MI. Good times.

Posted by: Thunderb at June 19, 2012 11:07 AM (Dnbau)

121 PA is winnable, and the new Voter ID law should at least keep Philadelphia voter fraud from getting too out of hand.

I still think they should split up the electoral votes by congressional district, the GOP would have a lock on the White House for probably a generation.

Posted by: Fitzgerald at June 19, 2012 11:13 AM (0kf1G)

122 PA is winnable, and the new Voter ID law should at least keep Philadelphia voter fraud from getting too out of hand.

They will bring in the experts from MN who can find votes in car trunks in just the right amount to turn a close loss into a win.

Posted by: Vic at June 19, 2012 11:16 AM (YdQQY)

123 Votes saved or created by Obama in PA will be astonishingly high.

Posted by: NewBrunswicker at June 19, 2012 11:22 AM (pwoSP)

124

Posted by: Fitzgerald at June 19, 2012 03:13 PM (0kf1G)

___

Why did this plan stall?

Posted by: kallisto at June 19, 2012 11:38 AM (jm/9g)

125 Believe me, that undervote in Bucks County is very significant. Remember, these are closed primaries in PA. Bucks is almost dead even in registration between Republicans and Democrats. One of the candidates for Attorney General in this primary, Patrick Murphy, is from Bucks was the Congressman from Bucks from 2007-2010, and he was very strongly associated with Obama - he was the first Democrat elected official in the state to endorse Obama and campigned with him everywhere. So for almost 20% of these voters to refuse to vote for Obama in a primary is HUGE. The AG race is the only state race on the ballot in November, and the Democrats have nominated an unknown against the current GOP Congressman, Mike Fitzpatrick, who beat Murphy badly in 2010. There is a lot of reason to think that Democratic turnout in Bucks will be off substantially from 2008, while Republican turnout will likely be very high.

Posted by: rockmom at June 19, 2012 11:42 AM (NYnoe)

126 125.

Voter ID laws won't "fix" all fraudulent voting, but it SIGNIFICANTLY curtails it. Coming up with thousands of fake ids that match real voters names and addresses is an enormous criminal conspiracy that most people will not get near.

But if all you have to do is show up at a polling location without any ID, it's a much different story, and the "risk" goes down significantly.

Posted by: Fitzgerald at June 19, 2012 11:48 AM (0kf1G)

127 #125 The way they do vote fraud in Philly is that they keep all the people who have died or moved away on the rolls,. then they bus people in from Blue states like New York and Connecticut and take them from precinct to precinct to vote in those names. There are more registered voters in Philly now than there are residents listed in the last Census. And they mysteriously get 100% turnout in every Presidential election in many of these inner-city precincts. They have polling places in union halls and elected official's homes, with union thugs harrassing voters and preventing Republican poll watchers from even getting inside or watching as the buses roll up and empty out.. A Voter ID law will prevent all that. Not so much finding ballots in trunks of cars, though they'll probably try that this year if it's close.

Posted by: rockmom at June 19, 2012 11:50 AM (NYnoe)

128 130.

Exactly, and Voter ID is also a HUGE psychological game changer. To get large scale voter fraud, you need large amounts of willing participants. People get VERY nervous when drivers' licenses are involved.

If Republicans take back Congress and the White House, they should tie highway funding to mandatory Voter ID. If the blue states want to keep up this game, fine, no highway funding.

Around 70% of Americans supports Voter ID. It's a no brainer for the GOP to force it in all 50 states.

Posted by: Fitzgerald at June 19, 2012 11:57 AM (0kf1G)

129 Wholesale voter fraud does not take place at the polls. It takes place counting the ballots.

Posted by: Vic at June 19, 2012 11:59 AM (YdQQY)

130 132.

I disagree, I'm not saying it never happens, but there's usually a lot of transparency in that process.

Most vote fraud is people voting that legally should not be for a variety of reasons (didn't register, are inelgible because of a felony, non citizens, are a college student registered in their parents state, etc.) or they just show up saying they're somebody else. All of this is almost exclusively from Democrats, usually in urban areas.

What I get tired of though is conservative Eeyores that constantly harp that the game is hopelessly rigged. I think that curtails turnout because it looks like a lost cause.

If voter fraud was that potent, no way could there be a Republican Governor and legislature in Pennsylvania.

Posted by: Fitzgerald at June 19, 2012 12:07 PM (0kf1G)

131

Vic, not in Philly. Believe me, they have it down to a science, but it all depends on there being no voter ID required. They really do send the buses around all day, I know people who have seen them. The Democrats also pay what they call "walking-around money" to the ward captains, which is used to pay the people on the buses, and to pay the black preachers for delivering their congregations. They also get all the college students to vote in Philly, and there are a lot of them.

#131 I also really want the next Congress to repeal the motor-voter law, and do something to strongly incent states against same-day registration in federal elections. Those have led to inestimable amounts of mischief.

Posted by: rockmom at June 19, 2012 12:07 PM (qE3AR)

132 At any rate, there's no way the Dems can top their 2008 turnout in Philly, so if we turn enough of the suburban counties we will win. That undervote map is very interesting - all of the counties along the Delaware River had very high undervotes. A lot of Democrats in those counties are New York transplants who have been hit very hard by this depression. They can see that Obama doesn't give a shit about them. Romney is a good fit for these voters and for the more socially liberal Republicans who live in these counties.

Posted by: rockmom at June 19, 2012 12:12 PM (NYnoe)

133 I was thinking about this on election day...it would be interesting to see the undervote in California.

Posted by: Uncle Jefe at June 19, 2012 01:10 PM (25KoS)

134
Anyways, I'm wondering if the undervote numbers in my area are just a reflection of the lack of choices on the D side. Obama ran unopposed, as did virtually every candidate on the ballot. I think I only cast one vote, for some judge (I could never vote for SCMOAF even in this situation). There simply wasn't much reason for a Dem voter to show up on primary day, not even to cast a love vote for Zero.

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at June 19, 2012 02:12 PM (YmPwQ)

Not showing up is not an undervote by the definition given. It is those who show up, but do not vote for a guy anyway.

So if 90000 voters show up, buy only 70000 vote for you while 90000 vote for the dogcatcher, that shows serious discontent. Much more than if you didn't show up at all and vote for anyone.

Posted by: Oldcat at June 19, 2012 01:28 PM (z1N6a)

135 If voter fraud was that potent, no way could there be a Republican Governor and legislature in Pennsylvania.

Posted by: Fitzgerald at June 19, 2012 04:07 PM (0kf1G)

Voter fraud requires work, so it has a harder time when everyone on that side knows it is futile.

Posted by: Oldcat at June 19, 2012 01:29 PM (z1N6a)

136 138.

The point I'm trying to make is, voter fraud is usually something at the margins that makes a difference in a close election. Some conservatives have this idea that millions upon millions of votes are fraudulent (you're talking about the entire populations of several states)

The reality is at most you're talking about a couple percentage points statewide where there's a Tammany Hall type operation in an urban area (think Philadelphia, Detroit, etc.)

The fact that Republicans can win handily in states like Michigan and PA even WITHOUT voter ID laws tells me we can overcome this handicap even more so now that we have these laws.

Posted by: Fitzgerald at June 19, 2012 01:52 PM (0kf1G)

137 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at June 19, 2012 04:18 PM (Xb3hu)

138 PA is winnable.
It won't be easy, but it can be done.
MoronWorld needs to get behind Tom Smith so's we can get rid of Little Bobby Casey in the Senate.

Posted by: bob at June 19, 2012 04:18 PM (yN6xf)

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