April 13, 2012
— CAC
Map courtesy of the great JohnE, as always.
With the primary a done deal, the general election is at hand. Romney enjoyed a gaffe from uber-secret mole Hilary Rosen, and his numbers against the President have improved in polling. President Obama enjoyed a growing margin over Romney in state-by-state and national polling, but much of that was data taken before the abrupt end of primary season on Tuesday. Candidates will typically enjoy a "unity bounce" as the primary resolves, and we may be seeing evidence of that this week. Currently, President Obama enjoys a 2 point deficit in a FoxNews poll and 4 point deficit per Rasmussen. Romney and Obama have see-sawed in our daily tracker, with Obama enjoying a small edge through Tuesday.
Some additional thoughts. Argue until you are blue in the face, Pennsylvania is the "hype state" for 2012. What's a hype state, you might ask? Think of political geekdom's obsession with Florida in 2000 or Ohio in 2004. It is a sizeable "swing" state deemed as the make-or-break for both sides.
The CAC rule on flipping the White House would hold here, as Romney is currently projected to flip Iowa (George W Bush failed to do in 2000, the last election in which Republicans won back the White House). Would be grand if it isn't the only one.
*poll update for lulz* YouGov has a new poll out showing Obama edging Romney 46-43, and suffering a 41/50 approval rating. You would think his leading Romney would be good news until you see the partisan breakdown of the poll: 46% Democrat, 35% Republican, 19% Independent. In a D+11 poll, Obama's approval rating is atrocious and he can only barely edge Romney. I wonder what that poll would look like with the PVI of 2004 or even 2008.
Posted by: CAC at
01:38 PM
| Comments (135)
Post contains 312 words, total size 2 kb.
Posted by: USNA1985 at April 13, 2012 01:49 PM (U3TDy)
CAC organizes his paper clips by color. This is a big development. Will send photos immediately.
Posted by: ace of spades mole at April 13, 2012 01:49 PM (HzhBE)
Posted by: Infidel at April 13, 2012 01:50 PM (O/fK8)
What an ass.
Posted by: momma at April 13, 2012 01:51 PM (oKsWl)
Posted by: maddogg at April 13, 2012 01:51 PM (OlN4e)
Posted by: Mitt Still Sux, But O-bah-muhh Sux More at April 13, 2012 01:51 PM (s5Y90)
They are in the process of doing it now.
Say a prayer.
It was voter fraud that turned Ohio for Obama.
Posted by: momma at April 13, 2012 01:53 PM (oKsWl)
Posted by: polynikes at April 13, 2012 01:53 PM (3467A)
Posted by: Soothsayer at April 13, 2012 01:54 PM (84JKc)
Toss ups. .....That's the people who will get all the attention....while those of us out in the big red states get ignored.
Fuckin toss ups.
Posted by: wheatie at April 13, 2012 01:55 PM (+5U+B)
Many didn't get counted (or even received) last Presidential election.
Posted by: momma at April 13, 2012 01:55 PM (oKsWl)
Posted by: Hedgehog at April 13, 2012 01:55 PM (3jGS1)
Posted by: howcome at April 13, 2012 01:56 PM (KgDYO)
Posted by: Empire of Fenster at April 13, 2012 01:56 PM (rpFf/)
Or here: http://goo.gl/LweWI
Walk for HOPE! (Community Service)
We need HOPE! So let's walk for it! The rabid rethuglicans think they can get away calling the President a SCOAMF. They can only get away with it if we let them. Stand together for the future of America. Join some of DC's up and coming Democrats leaders of tomorrow as we take a stand by walking! Starts at the US Treasury and ends at Congress. Bring comfortable shoes and a positive attitude!
Posted by: SCOAMF Walk at April 13, 2012 01:58 PM (qxcKC)
Congress voted down GITMO closure, you idiots.
Posted by: the thing that lives under the stairs at April 13, 2012 05:56 PM (z0HdK
It's so pathetic I feel sorry for it.
Posted by: Soothsayer at April 13, 2012 01:59 PM (84JKc)
Posted by: mugiwara at April 13, 2012 01:59 PM (KI/Ch)
Posted by: Foul Harold at April 13, 2012 01:59 PM (Uj/f4)
Posted by: The Jackhole at April 13, 2012 02:00 PM (nTgAI)
15 California is like a woman....
Um....polynikes. That's not a very nice thing to say. ....Your mama was a woman. Unless you are not human.
Posted by: wheatie at April 13, 2012 02:00 PM (+5U+B)
Wouldn't you gladly accept that to see Barry's tail lights in 2013?
Posted by: pep at April 13, 2012 02:02 PM (6TB1Z)
Posted by: Have Blue at April 13, 2012 02:03 PM (0dPUM)
Posted by: Burn the Witch at April 13, 2012 02:04 PM (isP0N)
Nevada went blue last time because the massive black community in Vegas turned out to vote for a black president. That enthusiasm is gone. IN addition, Nevada's other massive community - the Mormons - will swing Nevada red.
Bank on it.
Posted by: Sgt. York at April 13, 2012 02:05 PM (vyS+v)
Posted by: Stephen Price Blair at April 13, 2012 02:05 PM (QF8uk)
Posted by: DeusExMachina at April 13, 2012 02:05 PM (6RTwM)
Posted by: Pennsylvania at April 13, 2012 05:57 PM (v1uZf)
Depends on turnout, but the demos have trended that way. It sucks. More Dems are abandoning the clusterfuck that is Philadelphia and moving to the collar counties. My Montgomery county, forever a GOP bastion,has gone blue. And as a result of redistricting, my Rep is the Comrade Alyson Schwartz. It's depressing.
I'm off to build a bunker on the roof.
Posted by: Gabby Giffords at April 13, 2012 02:06 PM (AxHOT)
Posted by: ConcealedKerry or SubMitt at April 13, 2012 02:07 PM (nonzP)
The principal. On our tax dollars.
We have some pretty blatant commies out here in CO
Posted by: Boulder Toilet Hobo at April 13, 2012 02:07 PM (QTHTd)
Posted by: SCOAMF Walk at April 13, 2012 05:58 PM (qxcKC)
That is just too fucking awesome. I love the event host, Baracka Obarry
Posted by: mugiwara at April 13, 2012 02:07 PM (KI/Ch)
Posted by: mama winger at April 13, 2012 02:08 PM (P6QsQ)
35 Wouldn't you gladly accept that to see Barry's tail lights in 2013?
Sure. .....But it's irksome. ....And it will be irksome if Romney picks a VP that he thinks will appeal to the toss ups.
We're just chopped liver out here. Working hard, paying our taxes, paying our dues. We don't count. The 70% who didn't want Romney, because we figured that we would get ignored.
Posted by: wheatie at April 13, 2012 02:09 PM (+5U+B)
Stupid beyond belief Party?
Posted by: ConcealedKerry or SubMitt at April 13, 2012 02:09 PM (nonzP)
Does that include the shit-ton of illegal aliens voting for SCOAMF, or the Chicago kids voting on campus at the Iowa state universities?
Posted by: HeatherRadish™, Eeyore at April 13, 2012 02:10 PM (/kI1Q)
Stupid beyond belief Party?
Posted by: ConcealedKerry or SubMitt at April 13, 2012 06:09 PM (nonzP)
By trying to draw as many safe districts as possible
Posted by: Gabby Giffords at April 13, 2012 02:10 PM (AxHOT)
Come and listen to my story 'bout a man named Bam,
"I'm not half white, half black is what I am."
In twenty-oh-eight he was foolin' all the rubes,
With the help of the press and the television boobs.
Dissemblin' that is... black bull... Chi-Town greed.
Well the first thing you know ol' Bam's the President,
Lib folk said "Bam, grant us our free rent!"
Said "Single payer is the plan you ought to back."
So he turned it o'er to Nan and Harry (those two hacks).
OCare, that is. Executive orders. Dozens of czars.
Well now it's time to say good by to Bam and all his fools.
So we need to boot them out of gov'rnment and our schools.
You're all invited here and now to make this come to pass
And show these fakers to the door then kick them in the ass.
Traitors that is. Drop that loot! Git your shoes off (the Resolute desk)!
Y'all git out now, y'hear?
Posted by: Barky O'BenDoin', Preznint De Luxe at April 13, 2012 02:12 PM (0AClR)
Posted by: ConcealedKerry or SubMitt at April 13, 2012 02:12 PM (nonzP)
Posted by: Y-not at April 13, 2012 02:12 PM (5H6zj)
Nah, I got one eye on the Cubs / Cards game, a teensy bit of the vodka in my system and I saw the big blob of Illinois blue and thought I was over the border.
Never blog accompanied by Svedka.
Posted by: mama winger at April 13, 2012 02:13 PM (P6QsQ)
Posted by: Y-not is joking at April 13, 2012 02:15 PM (5H6zj)
Are we winning?
Posted by: mama winger at April 13, 2012 02:15 PM (P6QsQ)
I'll still have Walker, God willing.
Posted by: mama winger at April 13, 2012 02:16 PM (P6QsQ)
69 What's the electoral vote count on that map come out to, then? I am too Svedka'd to tell.
Are we winning?
Posted by: mama winger at April 13, 2012 06:15 PM (P6QsQ)
270 needed to win.
Posted by: Krebs v Carnot: Epic Battle of the Cycling Stars at April 13, 2012 02:19 PM (0AClR)
Too close to call.
Posted by: JonathanEllis at April 13, 2012 06:19 PM
Thanks.
Posted by: mama winger at April 13, 2012 02:19 PM (P6QsQ)
Whew, that's a relief. Our governor is Mark Dayton... oh, shit. I might as well start hording cardboard "Will Work For Food" signs now.
Posted by: Hollowpoint at April 13, 2012 02:21 PM (SY2Kh)
I don't trust him, I don't believe he's as conservative as many hope or as conservative as he claims. I not sure he's anywhere near conservative but against this disgrace we have currently in office, he'll get my vote. No money, no campaigning, just my vote.
Posted by: If It's Mitt, Obama's a Hit at April 13, 2012 02:21 PM (CP+yl)
Campaigns are a process. You have to factor in how those will execute, if you are going to evaluate polling this early.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at April 13, 2012 02:24 PM (Why44)
It's a shame CA is so well and truly f***ed because the country really needs to be pulled out of the abyss. Just CA swinging Right would pretty much wipe out the Blue Menace.
Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at April 13, 2012 02:24 PM (eHIJJ)
I clicked on the my.barackobama.com (the subdomain url is rather quite absurd..in a way it is hard to get caught parodying the libtards) ad in my hotmail and decided to see how far I could go...
anyone could go to my.barackobama.com and create an event. There isn't even an email opt-in.
So again, you rethugiclans...get some smarts in your stupid asses. Stand with Obama and Walk for HOPE!
http://goo.gl/LweWI
Posted by: Conn. Moron (not CT moron, I'm a different dude) at April 13, 2012 02:24 PM (obQuu)
Posted by: Jimbo at April 13, 2012 02:24 PM (O3R/2)
19 Toss ups. .....That's the people who will get all the attention....while those of us out in the big red states get ignored.
Fuckin toss ups.
Posted by: wheatie at April 13, 2012 05:55 PM (+5U+B)
You dislike us? You really, really dislike us?
Posted by: Luntz' Dunces at April 13, 2012 02:24 PM (0AClR)
Same diff!
(Stands back from grenade she just rolled into the thread.) ******* Wow.... My 100% guaranteed, no-holds-barred lock of the week or your money back: Oklahoma goes for Romney, although Obama might actually win one or two counties this time. In 2008 every county went McCain.
Posted by: Grim at April 13, 2012 02:26 PM (gyNYk)
Posted by: Boulder Toilet Hobo at April 13, 2012 06:07 PM (QTHTd)
Didja read today's Daily Communist?
They're considering a San Francisco style plastic bag ban.
Posted by: jwb7605 at April 13, 2012 02:28 PM (Qxe/p)
Posted by: Boulder Toilet Hobo at April 13, 2012 02:28 PM (QTHTd)
Bank on it.Posted by: Sgt. York
Have any data on that?
NY 2008 exit polls show that the NV black vote for the Dem's only increased by 16% as opposed to the Hispanic vote for Dem's that increased by 33%.
Considering how blacks are roughly 8.5% of NV and hispanics are 22%, there may be a problem with your conclusion.
Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at April 13, 2012 02:29 PM (qfooS)
BAHAHAHA! Ow, my poor spleen
Posted by: Boulder Toilet Hobo at April 13, 2012 02:29 PM (QTHTd)
We have to retake the southeast/midatlantic (NC/VA) and win Fl and OH.
We keep losing ground in the southwest.
Utah is our bulwark. But Nevada and Colorado keep getting bluer.
Of course, if we ever breakthrough the industrial midwest we are golden. They keep getting redder.
So keep shitting on "flyover" country you socialist motherfuckers.
Posted by: Muhammad the False Prophet at April 13, 2012 02:30 PM (ZPrif)
Gingrich has proven himself as being the same unattractive fat egotistical backstabbing bastard he was 14 years ago.
Nice to know nothing has changed.
Posted by: TexasJew at April 13, 2012 02:32 PM (Bughn)
Posted by: ryukyu at April 13, 2012 02:33 PM (MOHSR)
Nice to know nothing has changed.
Posted by: TexasJew at April 13, 2012 06:32 PM (Bughn)
Add opportunist
Posted by: The Jackhole at April 13, 2012 02:33 PM (nTgAI)
Curse me for my racism. But I am a white-white. And do not know any better. And can not do any better.
Posted by: Conn. Moron at April 13, 2012 02:34 PM (K5uyW)
Keep in mind we already kicked Arlene Sphincter, and Rick Santorum to the curb once...so I don't think we're all that blue-leaning at the moment. Most of the people in my community want jobs, and a return to energy prices of a few years ago. Even with the mild winter, don't think for a moment we didn't notice the 33 percent increase in gas/electric prices over the last couple of years. The cost of heating my home to a modest 65 day/60night has gone from 312 dollars a month, to 421 dollars a month. It used to cost me 80 dollars per week to fill my car, now it's costing me 135.
We notice this shit. Even the union guys. PA is gonna be a hard sell for Obama.
Posted by: Sticky Wicket at April 13, 2012 02:40 PM (L7hol)
No wonder he is losing his cool. This map shows an easy path for Romeny to win the Presidency and a hard path for Obama.
Posted by: rich at April 13, 2012 02:46 PM (f3GW1)
Posted by: JonathanEllis at April 13, 2012 02:50 PM (BdzEV)
Posted by: CA begging for help at April 13, 2012 02:53 PM (wAQA5)
huff.to/I9Y4eR
Posted by: JonathanEllis at April 13, 2012 02:57 PM (BdzEV)
Posted by: Barry O'Genius at April 13, 2012 03:02 PM (wAQA5)
Just because the MSM assigned us Red does that mean we have to go along?
Posted by: Steve O at April 13, 2012 03:07 PM (Orxpy)
Obama and the MSM WANT people to think Romney doesn't stand a chance, what's sick is how many conservatives trumpet this meme.
You put a strong running mate (think Rubio) and I think you could see a comfortable victory for Romney, especially since it's looking like the economy is heading downward again.
Posted by: BradleyHarm at April 13, 2012 03:14 PM (0kf1G)
Hey CAC:
Why don't you see if Ace is okay with you just posting one of these every day? I mean, instead of in the sidebar. The sidebar posts you do on polling are kind of hard to understand... kind of a lot of info for such a small space.
They are pretty cool posts... I think most people like them. Also, more fodder for comments.
Posted by: dan-O at April 13, 2012 03:15 PM (sWycd)
Maybe they hold residual anti-Mormon sentiments from the 1840s. The governor Lilburn Boggs did order them "exterminated", in what must have been the most colossal Alpha Male pronouncement in that state's history. I mean, damn.
Posted by: Boulder Toilet Hobo at April 13, 2012 03:16 PM (QTHTd)
Posted by: Boulder Toilet Hobo at April 13, 2012 03:17 PM (QTHTd)
Posted by: Boulder Toilet Hobo at April 13, 2012 03:18 PM (QTHTd)
Posted by: The Political Hat at April 13, 2012 03:22 PM (XvHmy)
Considering the GOP hasn't won it in over 20 years, probably not, but that's sort of like saying Obama probably won't win Arizona. Who cares? We don't need Michigan to win.
I will say this, Romney will likely do better than Bush did, and Obama will not be able to ignore it.
The more likely swing states are OH, PA, WI, New Hampshire, Nevada and Iowa. All of these are within reach and if Obama loses any of them, he likely will not get reelected.
Posted by: BradleyHarm at April 13, 2012 03:38 PM (0kf1G)
Posted by: JonathanEllis at April 13, 2012 03:40 PM (BdzEV)
Posted by: Sean at April 13, 2012 03:47 PM (i+f5S)
Gonna be really tough if Virginia is now a permanent swing state.
Posted by: Muhammad the False Prophet at April 13, 2012 06:38 PM (ZPrif)
Not really. It went deep red in 09 for McDonnell. Deep red again in 2010 in the House races, and deep red in the state legislature elections in 2011. I was wondering why Bambi was running attack ads on Mittens in Virginia in the last month, then the Roanoke College poll came out with Mittens with the lead. Virginia will be red again this year, and Allen will beat Kaine for the Senate seat.
Posted by: MrCaniac at April 13, 2012 03:52 PM (1grxW)
Posted by: Sean at April 13, 2012 03:53 PM (i+f5S)
I agree, and I'm hoping there's some secret, last minute plan in PA to change the EC votes, but it's probably a pipedream. If PA pulled that off, the Democrats would be shut out of the White House for a LONG time.
If Bush can come within a point of PA though, I think Romney though has a good shot, maybe even better than in Ohio.
Posted by: BradleyHarm at April 13, 2012 03:54 PM (0kf1G)
What you're forgetting is how likeable I am. Look at those numbers vs. Romneybot. I'm golden! Fore! You better hire some good programmers bitchez!
Posted by: Mr. Likeable at April 13, 2012 04:24 PM (zpqa2)
Posted by: ChristyBlinky: ABO 2012 at April 13, 2012 04:29 PM (baL2B)
Posted by: ConcealedKerry or SubMitt at April 13, 2012 04:38 PM (nonzP)
Posted by: ConcealedKerry or SubMitt at April 13, 2012 04:39 PM (nonzP)
Posted by: Sean at April 13, 2012 04:43 PM (i+f5S)
Posted by: A Mindful Webworker at April 13, 2012 04:45 PM (lBpVP)
Posted by: A Mindful Webworker at April 13, 2012 04:51 PM (lBpVP)
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at April 13, 2012 05:08 PM (r4wIV)
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at April 13, 2012 05:11 PM (r4wIV)
Posted by: MrCaniac at April 13, 2012 05:13 PM (1grxW)
Come visit us here in Maryland sometime. Or failing that, pull up a map and look at its Congressional districts and see if you still feel like complaining. MD went from having four Republican congressmen in 2000 (Morella, Gilchrist, Ehrlich, Bartlett) to probably only having one after 2012, and all thanks to the magic of gerrymandering.
Posted by: Jeff B. at April 13, 2012 05:18 PM (hIWe1)
THIS.
Posted by: jocon307 at April 13, 2012 05:50 PM (bbVJG)
Best map I've seen so far. Beats the hell out of what they've got at RCP. Still, some quibbles. I make Nevada Lean Romney, Colorado a tossup, Michigan lean Obama, Iowa a tossup, Indiana like Missouri sb Likely Romney, Arizona likely Romney. Washington & Oregon have just enough Mormons to make it slightly interesting. All told, Romney helps us in NH, NV, MI, WA, OR, AZ. Hurts us in NC, FL, CO, IA, WV, OH & maybe VA. Between his Mormonism and his appeal to self-styled moderate, civilized suburbanites, I have to admit that Romney is not without some tactical strengths, mostly in some smaller states plus MI.
Posted by: smokedaddy at April 13, 2012 06:50 PM (lTmpG)
Posted by: steevy at April 13, 2012 08:38 PM (7W3wI)
Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at April 14, 2012 12:35 AM (fiXQh)
What other colors are there besides Purple?
Some other group has green. We don't want yellow, black, or white. Orange would not be an improvement.
We should be Purple. And the Democrats should be Pink.
Posted by: Steve O at April 14, 2012 05:11 AM (Orxpy)
-- The American Communist Party recently announced that zero members of Congress and the Senate are currently members of the Communist Party. Not even Bernie Sanders. Somehow that's supposed to mean that they're not communists, or that they don't favor central planning over the free market.
Posted by: Steve O at April 14, 2012 05:14 AM (Orxpy)
Posted by: norrin radd at April 14, 2012 01:17 PM (7fQTl)
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Posted by: nickless at April 13, 2012 01:46 PM (MMC8r)