Ace of Spades HQ

August 22, 2012

#AOSHQDD- MuLaw Poll Wisconsin: Obama 49 Romney 46
— CAC

Likely Voters.

Will update as info trickles out.
I have said repeatedly that I trust Marquette over everybody else as they have been great so far calling the Badger state.

Previous poll: Romney 45% Obama 50%
Their latest poll finds (per Poll chief Charles Franklin) Ryan's selection may have increased Romney's chances in the state: Romney 46% Obama 49%
(July Pol Obama lead by 8 )

WI VOTER'S RATING OF ROMNEY'S PICK OF RYAN:
31% EXCELLENT
27% PRETTY GOOD

16% only fair
19% poor

Ryan Approval:
"MULawPoll ‏@MULawPoll
WI view of Ryan pick is more favorable than national view (shown in Gallup), poll director Charles Franklin says. #mulawpoll"

Choice to pick Romney reflects good/poorly on Romney's decision making 55%/31%

IS RYAN QUALIFIED TO BE PRESIDENT?
55% YES
38% NO

MORE LIKELY TO VOTE FOR ROMNEY B/C OF ROMNEY?
29%/13%less

WHAT KEEPS OBAMA IN THE GAME:
+8 approval vs -10 for Romney.

WHAT HELPS ROMNEY:
Room for Republican unity (right now at 88%), expansion in Metro Milwaukee/GreenBay.
Surprising numbers for non-white vote: 41% of WI hispanics vote for Romney, 52% Obama. African-Americans: 11% Romney 89% Obama

WHAT MAKES THE DIFFERENCE:
Romney is losing the GreenBay/Appleton area by <2%, flip that with some ads and stops, and beef up the WOW (Milwaukee Metro only going to him by 7% needs to beef that up). That will flip -3 to even or +

Senate matchup between Tommy Thompson and Tammy Baldwin:
Previous: Thompson 48% Baldwin 43%
NEW POLL:Thompson 50% Baldwin 41%
Moving Wisconsin Senate seat to Solid Pickup. State may tighten a bit due to the nature of the state but a widening lead with no traction for Baldwin means a win.

Waiting for D/R crosstab, PPP's R+2, Ras R+2...(very few solid independents per C.F.: 9% of the whole state...still waiting for D/R)-- MULAW: D+1, considerable shift from 4 years ago, more D than recall.

TURNOUT WILL BE CRITICAL- Per director Franklin very few persuadable voters (just like in recall)

VOTER SCHISM- supports keeping Medicare as is, yet also insists "major changes needed" to keep solvent, by same amount 55%

Other polling for WI-President:
Rasmussen Romney +1 (LV)
PublicPolicyPolling Romney +1 (LV)
CNN Obama +4 (RV sample)

**Quinnipiac poll of WI coming tomorrow as well**

Standing by my call of Wisconsin as a lean (slightly) Romney: with the apparatus on the ground and Romney clearly spending money here, Ryan's pick has made the state very reachable. Waiting for more crosstab info. Three of three polls have shown the state shifting, tomorrow would be 4 for 4 if pattern continues. This is at WORST a tossup right now. During Wisconsin recall, Marquette's FINAL poll was closer than anyone else's. Poll director (Charles Franklin) is very reputable and approachable on twitter (@pollsandvotes), follow him please and support perhaps one of the most direct and thorough pollsters in the buisness. --flashback- Obama beat McCain by 13 points, so, yeah, he's facing quite a fuckening in the Badger state right now.
Follow me on twitter @conartcritic and hashtag #AOSHQDD for polls, breakdowns and tidbits through the general election.

Posted by: CAC at 09:23 AM | Comments (153)
Post contains 479 words, total size 3 kb.

1 CAC is obviously making up for Ace's morning "alone time".

Posted by: EC at August 22, 2012 09:26 AM (GQ8sn)

2 hmmm...

What do you think the likely turnout model favors CAC?

Posted by: sven10077 at August 22, 2012 09:26 AM (LRFds)

3 Seems more realistic to me. Don't think Romney will carry the state, but it's not impossible.

Posted by: Jeff B. at August 22, 2012 09:27 AM (Z2wcK)

4 I dunno Jeff. I've seen almost as many Tommy and Romney signs in the last few days as Baldwin or Obama signs (in Madison). Now...there are a bunch of the local races too, and *those* people are advertising more liberal, so likely they're voting baldwin and the zero...but they aren't advertising it...which is actually a good sign around here.

Posted by: GMan at August 22, 2012 09:28 AM (sxq57)

5 Depends on the amount of voter fraud committed by the dead in Milwaukee and the communists in Madison.

Posted by: brak at August 22, 2012 09:29 AM (nIoiW)

And here I thought you were spending all this time working on the Michigan poll.

Let's get our priorities straight, shall we?

Posted by: jwest at August 22, 2012 09:29 AM (ZDsRL)

7 I heard that Wisconsin was a lock until AKIN!!!!

Posted by: Golan Globus at August 22, 2012 09:30 AM (7vSU0)

8 Polls haven't hardened up yet.

Posted by: Vic at August 22, 2012 09:30 AM (YdQQY)

9 Wake me after the conventions.

Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at August 22, 2012 09:31 AM (RD7QR)

10 Polls haven't hardened up yet. Posted by: Vic

TWSS!

Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at August 22, 2012 09:31 AM (Q/1Jp)

11 8 Polls haven't hardened up yet. Posted by: Vic at August 22, 2012 01:30 PM (YdQQY) You're telling me!

Posted by: Jenna Jameson at August 22, 2012 09:31 AM (3HsdR)

12 O-O-H-I! During the Obama/Biden Administration you bitter clingers got "Here Comes Honey Boo Boo". People should be thanking me!

Posted by: Joe Biden at August 22, 2012 09:32 AM (msPO3)

Polls haven't hardened up yet.

Posted by: Vic at August 22, 2012 01:30 PM (YdQQY)

Speak for yourself.

Posted by: mugiwara, checking out thart Christina Hendricks thread from yesterday at August 22, 2012 09:32 AM (W7ffl)

14 8 Polls haven't hardened up yet.
Posted by: Vic

I have a hard poll for Paul Ryan...

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Wright at August 22, 2012 09:32 AM (ovpNn)

15 7 GG,

dude would you like me to break out a princess thistle reset?

any usual blue leaning state may have had the purple driven off for a bit...

Posted by: sven10077 at August 22, 2012 09:32 AM (LRFds)

16 I still say we get through the first debate- October 3rd.

Posted by: tasker at August 22, 2012 09:33 AM (r2PLg)

17 I'm waiting to see what InTrade says.

Posted by: The Mega Independent at August 22, 2012 09:34 AM (buaco)

18 I am still bummed out here, thanks to that Akin ass.

Posted by: Hidajunshin at August 22, 2012 09:34 AM (20NzC)

Polls haven't hardened up yet.

It's been decades, lemme tell ya what.

Posted by: Helen Thomas at August 22, 2012 09:37 AM (BAS5M)

20 Damn, Vic. You teed that one up high.

Posted by: ErikW at August 22, 2012 09:37 AM (j7/E9)

21 LOL

Gallup has Romney Up again 47

and the DOJ just decided to sue Gallup for overcharging according to whistleblower.

I bet that lawsuit can go away if gallup stops oversampling republicans....

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Wright at August 22, 2012 09:37 AM (ovpNn)

22 "Justice Department officials joined a whistle blower lawsuit and alleged that The Gallup Organization, a major polling firm, intentionally overestimated the amount of time it would take to complete a job for the government and was paid accordingly." http://tinyurl.com/8ko75fq

Posted by: cynder ella at August 22, 2012 09:37 AM (oZfic)

23 Never underestimate the power of self fulfilling prophecy. If you think all is lost--you just might not blog before 2:00 pm. Then next thing you know--you've demoralized two other people...

Posted by: tasker at August 22, 2012 09:37 AM (r2PLg)

Michigan:

State-wide Aggregate Results (Weighted to projected age, gender & ethnicity of electorate, percentages do not all equal 100%) Â– 1733 Respondents MOE +/- 2.35%

Question 1:

The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you more likely to vote for in the election??

(Barack Obama): 43.88%

(Mitt Romney): 47.68%

(Another candidate): 3.96%

(Undecided): 4.01%

Posted by: jwest at August 22, 2012 09:38 AM (ZDsRL)

25 I'm trying to picture what someone who voted for Scott Walker, witnessed the left's behavior there, and is still supporting Obama looks like.

Posted by: Abe Froman at August 22, 2012 09:39 AM (E55AK)

26 No, really, you can use a really long stick to poke ace and he won't be able to bite you. Don't be such a sissy.

Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at August 22, 2012 09:39 AM (RD7QR)

Polls haven't hardened up yet.

Elizabeth used to tell Bob Dole that. But Bob Dole has no problemo now, thanks to those wonderful Pfizer Pfolks. Ask Bob Dole what Bob Dole does.

Posted by: Bob Dole at August 22, 2012 09:40 AM (BAS5M)

28 Those poll results were obviously Photoshopped.

Posted by: Jake Tapper, OIHIan at August 22, 2012 09:40 AM (eHIJJ)

29 Is the Marquette poll of registered or likely voters?

Posted by: Chris at August 22, 2012 09:41 AM (gI9Bk)

30 Weighted to projected age, Did they do weighting? Nate Silver is ripping it up because supposedly it doesn't follow likely voter turn out modeling. Funny thing is I hit him months ago for ignoring that kind of crap in other polling. Still you can get away with ignoring the methodology when a poll is not an outlier. That Florida poll is an outlier so...Silver gets away with the inconsistency.

Posted by: tasker at August 22, 2012 09:41 AM (r2PLg)

31 I want to know what the Big Fucking Rock's opinion is on all of these polls. No, really, you can use a really long stick to poke ace and he won't be able to bite you. I don't know, ewoks are wily fuckers.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD/Whiteboard 2012 at August 22, 2012 09:42 AM (VtjlW)

32 Likely Voters, Chris. Obama is getting a slight bump in the LV avg now, up by a fraction of a point. Trend is with Romney...for now, hence the rating. That changes in a few weeks, right back to tossup or even lean Obama.

Posted by: CAC at August 22, 2012 09:42 AM (hREo+)

33 26 I'm trying to picture what someone who voted for Scott Walker, witnessed the left's behavior there, and is still supporting Obama looks like. Posted by: Abe Froman at August 22, 2012 01:39 PM (E55AK) ______________ Great point.

Posted by: tasker at August 22, 2012 09:43 AM (r2PLg)

34 I'm trying to picture what someone who voted for Scott Walker, witnessed the left's behavior there, and is still supporting Obama looks like

Likes affordable property taxes, hates Mormons/rich businessmen/being called racist?

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at August 22, 2012 09:43 AM (/kI1Q)

35 I like a good piece of man meat just like the next guy but this scull f'**ing that it looks like team RR are about give me has me worried..

Posted by: Barky the SCOMF at August 22, 2012 09:45 AM (DcbLC)

36 Let's not forget that Bush lost Wisconsin by percentage points in 2004.

Having the state as a tossup is historically likely, and the Ryan pick justifies the slight lean to R&R

Posted by: The Q at August 22, 2012 09:45 AM (B/yDO)

37 I'm trying to picture what someone who voted for Scott Walker, witnessed the left's behavior there, and is still supporting Obama looks like.
=================
Well, hello there. You rang?

Posted by: Concerned Christian Conservative at August 22, 2012 09:46 AM (imtbm)

38 WHAT KEEPS OBAMA IN THE GAME:
+8 approval vs -10 for Romney.

So, you're saying the Negative Add Campaign works, then?

The Wisconsin economy has been saved by a conservative governor, yet you dumb fucks still have a +8 approval for Obama?

You GOTTA put down the beer and brats and open your friggin eyes, Wisconsinites.

Posted by: Neil Young at August 22, 2012 09:47 AM (UK9cE)

39 Let's not forget that Bush lost Wisconsin by percentage points in 2004.

Also by fewer votes than fraudulent votes cast in 2000.

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at August 22, 2012 09:48 AM (/kI1Q)

40 How come are the bastard's job approval ratings on a slow upward climb lately? I can't figure that out, for the 'wrong track' question is still 25 or more against him.

Posted by: Jinx the Cat at August 22, 2012 09:48 AM (l3vZN)

41 If we win the Senate race and Walker survived, I have trouble seeing a scenario where Romney isn't at least extremely competitive. It's a toss up right now and could easily see it leaning Romney on election day.

Posted by: Big T Party(on vacation) at August 22, 2012 09:48 AM (N2svL)

42 Neil, shouldn't you be singing about dead people in O-I-H-O?

Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at August 22, 2012 09:48 AM (RD7QR)

43 Also by fewer votes than fraudulent votes cast in 2000. Posted by: HeatherRadishÂ™ at August 22, 2012 01:48 PM (/kI1Q) W.O.W. vote is larger now than it was in 2000 or 2004, and clearly blew whatever D efforts existed in June out the water. Wisconsin has changed dramatically in less than half a decade.

Posted by: CAC at August 22, 2012 09:49 AM (hREo+)

44 Damn sock.

Posted by: © Sponge at August 22, 2012 09:49 AM (UK9cE)

45
Unload some $$$ shock and awe upon the Dimbulbs!

Pound 'em!

Posted by: Krebs v Carnot: Epic Battle of the Cycling Stars at August 22, 2012 09:49 AM (HmCnI)

46 Yeah, it seems like the last Scott Walker vote would be the best model to predict WI. Perhaps even a widening for Team Romney. The Progressives were at their most agitated and still lost in the State's most anticipated, important election. What has changed for the better for SCoaMF in the interim?

Yeah, it's a Presidential election, but the State was manic for months and months. It won't become more so come November.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at August 22, 2012 09:50 AM (eHIJJ)

47 eh...NJ or MA goes surprise Romney so that will be that. NH too.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at August 22, 2012 09:50 AM (O1BLm)

48 Neil, shouldn't you be singing about dead people in O-I-H-O?

Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at August 22, 2012 01:48 PM (RD7QR)

He did in the last thread, then I forgot to change my socks.

Posted by: © Sponge at August 22, 2012 09:50 AM (UK9cE)

49 42 How come are the bastard's job approval ratings on a slow upward climb lately? I can't figure that out, for the 'wrong track' question is still 25 or more against him. Posted by: Jinx the Cat at August 22, 2012 01:48 PM (l3vZN) _____________ Wrong track is a question about the country. job approval is about Obama. Could be Bradley Effect.

Posted by: tasker at August 22, 2012 09:50 AM (r2PLg)

"Did they do weighting?

Nate Silver is ripping it up because supposedly it doesn't follow likely voter turn out modeling. "

Yeah, it appears Nate has just discovered the catagory of weighting by party affiliation. It's funny he hasn't spent too much time on the subject when D+19 polls were showing what he wanted.

Posted by: jwest at August 22, 2012 09:51 AM (ZDsRL)

51
I forgot to add (for Whiny Cheesehead Boy) - Nuke democracy from orbit!

It's the only way to be sure that it's really dead this time!

Posted by: Krebs v Carnot: Epic Battle of the Cycling Stars at August 22, 2012 09:51 AM (HmCnI)

52 49 eh...NJ or MA goes surprise Romney so that will be that. NH too.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at August 22, 2012 01:50 PM (O1BLm)

NH maybe, but the rot is too deep in NJ and MA.

Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at August 22, 2012 09:52 AM (RD7QR)

53 It's funny he hasn't spent too much time on the subject when D+19 polls were showing what he wanted. Posted by: jwest at August 22, 2012 01:51 PM (ZDsRL) ______________ Correct.

Posted by: tasker at August 22, 2012 09:52 AM (r2PLg)

54 With the GOP registration drive for the recall election, and the turnout/result, I am pretty confident that Romney carries the state.

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at August 22, 2012 09:53 AM (KwMW2)

55 "RNC CHAIR: PALIN OFFERED SPEAKING SLOT AT CONVENTION" http://tinyurl.com/cf7b3wp

Posted by: cynder ella at August 22, 2012 09:53 AM (oZfic)

56 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at August 22, 2012 09:53 AM (6o4Fb)

57 49 If Mitt uses Christie the right way, NJ is in play. Most moderate folks like what he's doing, just not the way he goes about it. Mitt just needs to make a case that he'll do good AND look good doing it.

Posted by: Big T Party(on vacation) at August 22, 2012 09:53 AM (N2svL)

58 Not bad for not spending a dollar here so far...

They don't seem to be too worried right now. We're sending all of our WI leaders over to Michigan to pump up the crowd.

Still say +6 when all said an done.

Posted by: H Badger at August 22, 2012 09:54 AM (n/0Nw)

59 WHAT KEEPS OBAMA IN THE GAME: +8 approval vs -10 for Romney. See, this is the crux of the problem here. Romney is a deeply unlikable individual. He's liked all the elites of the GOP but does not connect with ordinary people at all. Has anyone with Romney's unfavorables ever been elected President? People keep saying that Todd Akin is a plant, but I personally believe Mitt Romney fits the description better. It's as if he WANTS to alienate the white working class, his base, as much as humanly possible. Obama is such an abject failure Romney should be 10 points ahead by any objective standard.

Posted by: Reality Check at August 22, 2012 09:55 AM (hvzWz)

60 "RNC CHAIR: PALIN OFFERED SPEAKING SLOT AT CONVENTION"

Todd Palin? Fresh from Stars Earn Stripes? I guess that show has more pull than I assumed. Must be Dick Wolf's juice, or Gen Wes Clark influence.

Posted by: bonhomme at August 22, 2012 09:57 AM (4QSOR)

61 Wake me after the conventions.

Posted by: joncelli, heartless Con and all around unpleasant guy at August 22, 2012 01:31 PM (RD7QR)

-------------------------------------------------

Yup. How easily people forget. Scott and senate repubs were voted in twice within one term. Y'all can pay attention to the various asundry of over-rated polls and make your prognostications. I'll look at reality.

Posted by: Soona at August 22, 2012 09:58 AM (y0DOT)

62 OT of course I knew about Mann's fraudulent temperature graph but I did not know he was such a fat ,ugly douche(sidebar pic)

Posted by: steevy at August 22, 2012 09:58 AM (6o4Fb)

63 The best thing so far is we are not even talking about states lame mccain was able to get.

Over the next few months, right up until the last week, remember that most pollsters will be giving Obastard at least 2 points over reality, so make that correction in your head.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at August 22, 2012 09:58 AM (O1BLm)

64 Obama's playing basketball here. He's talking about student debt. I still don't believe their average figure of $26,000. Everyone I know, with parents having paid and taken out loans themselves, has in excess of a hundred grand. If you toss in law school, medical school, a master's degree or a doctoral program, there is no way you have less than a hundred grand in student loans.

Posted by: cynder ella at August 22, 2012 09:59 AM (oZfic)

65 Are these registered or likely voters?

Posted by: Adam at August 22, 2012 09:59 AM (/YJYi)

66 Speaking of cat piss, where has Toldyaso been? Would have figured he'd be trying to kick us in the balls 24/7 over Akin.

Did he forget where he put his shine box?

Posted by: Hagbard Celine at August 22, 2012 09:59 AM (+/VIS)

67 OT current TV, Al Gore TV, running a special called "The Morman Candidate" about how Mitt Romney is a leader in a cult and took an ex-morman woman's children away from her. All very breathlessly reported

Posted by: thunderb at August 22, 2012 10:00 AM (Dnbau)

68 Prince Reebus extends a hand of friendship to Sarah Palin??

Posted by: soothsayer at August 22, 2012 10:00 AM (G/zuv)

69 Obama is such an abject failure Romney should be 10 points ahead by any objective standard.

Posted by: Reality Check at August 22, 2012 01:55 PM (hvzWz)

Demographically impossible. With blacks voting 95-5 Dem and Hispanics 70-30 Dem (which would happen no matter who the GOP nominated), just to eke out a win, Romney has to do better than Reagan did with white voters.

Posted by: Jon at August 22, 2012 10:00 AM (Onq3t)

70 Look, Obama just needs to replace Biden with (still) Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett to sew up WI. It would be a deft move.

Posted by: Putter at August 22, 2012 10:01 AM (r8uWJ)

71 1733 Respondents

That's a pretty big sample if it was anything close to homogenous.

Posted by: @PurpAv at August 22, 2012 10:01 AM (WnzOT)

72 67 Posted by: Reality Check at August 22, 2012 01:55 PM (hvzWz) Thank you, dear Christian, for your dose of concern this afternoon. Posted by: Mallamutt, RINO President for Life at August 22, 2012 01:58 PM (OWjjx) _______________ You google the hash and you get- "Collectivist". storm front also comes up in that thread.

Posted by: tasker at August 22, 2012 10:01 AM (r2PLg)

73 I don't believe in polls.

Posted by: David C. at August 22, 2012 10:02 AM (ZtMso)

74 it's an interesting development it probably has everything to do with Akin they want to use Sarah Palin to brighten things up with the demoralized base ...all done with Romney's okay, of course

Posted by: soothsayer at August 22, 2012 10:02 AM (G/zuv)

75 69 Are these registered or likely voters?

Posted by: Adam at August 22, 2012 01:59 PM (/YJYi)

If you're talking about the Michigan poll, 42,000 calls produced 1,700 registered voters with at little over 1,000 fitting the most likely voter model.

Posted by: jwest at August 22, 2012 10:03 AM (ZDsRL)

76 Romney should be 10 points ahead by any objective standard.

See, that sort of statement sounds nice when you read it out loud, but we're talking about politics. There is no "objective standard" here. The deck is stacked and there are metric elephant portage loads of people out there who would rather murder their own mother than vote for a Republican. Those same people hide most of Obama's failures from the average voter. Personally I live in an area where without news coverage, I would have no idea there was such a bad unemployment problem out there. Objectively speaking, of course.

Posted by: bonhomme at August 22, 2012 10:03 AM (4QSOR)

77 Numbers, and percentages. And dollar signs, and polls from TV. It's all here, ready. Fresh as harvest day.

Posted by: Dr. Varno at August 22, 2012 10:03 AM (VkVfl)

78 Quoting Reality Check: "Obama is such an abject failure Romney should be 10 points ahead by any objective standard."

So, RC, how does having 95% of the news media both covertly and openly supporting Obama figure into this statement? By any objective standard, that is.

Posted by: Mr_Write at August 22, 2012 10:04 AM (VJUQK)

One would think that a presidential candidate who planned on a huge (borrowed) stimulus, shutting down coal and natural gas as power sources, instituting socialized medicine, and raising income taxes on small businesses might have thought in 2008 to select a running mate who might help him in 2012 when the predictable results of his policies were bearing their distasteful fruit.

But, he picked Biden.

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at August 22, 2012 10:05 AM (KwMW2)

80 Blast pixy to HAEDES for taking away my paragraph tags, ampersands, and eights followed by a right paren.

Posted by: bonhomme at August 22, 2012 10:05 AM (4QSOR)

81 I am sure it was discussed today, just wanted to add my LOL for posterity purposes:

>>AP OdipO 47, Rombot 46
The revised partisan split is 31/23/30, for a D+8 and a serious undersample of Republicans. <<<<

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at August 22, 2012 10:06 AM (O1BLm)

82 running a special called "The Morman Candidate" about how Mitt Romney is a leader in a cult

OK, that kinda greenlights getting some crackhead hooker to make up a story about how the Choom gang kidnapped and repeatedly raped her and stole her drugs.

Once you've crossed the line into fiction, any plot or storyline is possible.

Posted by: @PurpAv at August 22, 2012 10:06 AM (WnzOT)

83 Jay Cost has a piece explaining about how Romney has become the Wall Street Candidate. http://tinyurl.com/d87mnxw I personally don't believe Wall Street wants Romney. They have been in bed with the Dems for quite a long time. I do believe, however, that they might be funding him with the secret purpose of undermining his campaign by making him take wildly unpopular stances on gay marriage, medicare, etc.

Posted by: Reality Check at August 22, 2012 10:06 AM (hvzWz)

84 I am weirdly optimistic. Fuck em. If asked about Akin, tell them about the JEF saying its ok to let a baby die in a closet. Asked about the no rape exception in the party platform, tell them about the progs embrace of partial birth abortion. Asked about the unfairness to woman, talk about requiring religious institutions to violate their teachings and pay for abortion on demand or have the taxpayer do it. Turn it back on them, like the Mediscare argument

Posted by: thunderb at August 22, 2012 10:06 AM (Dnbau)

85 Posted by: cynder ella at August 22, 2012 01:59 PM (oZfic)

You should post more links and fewer actual comments.

When you post links, we think you are an idiot.

When you write comments, you prove it.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at August 22, 2012 10:06 AM (2b4yb)

86 79 I don't believe in polls. Posted by: David C. at August 22, 2012 02:02 PM (ZtMso) ______________ Whenever you are trying to predict human behavior it's an art form. Still some art is less abstract..... Like the Field Poll for instance.

Posted by: tasker at August 22, 2012 10:07 AM (r2PLg)

87 Quoting Vashta Nerada: "But, he picked Biden."

"And that shows how brilliant the president is!" ~ LSM

Posted by: Mr_Write at August 22, 2012 10:07 AM (VJUQK)

88 But, he picked Biden.

Obama the narcissist picked Biden, not Obama the candidate.

Posted by: @PurpAv at August 22, 2012 10:07 AM (WnzOT)

89 The other fun to watch here...WI DNC and all of its little fuckstick followers were in their eyes betrayed by Obama during the recall election.

He'll have to sweat some the next time he steps foot here.

Posted by: H Badger at August 22, 2012 10:08 AM (n/0Nw)

90 Once you've crossed the line into fiction, any plot or storyline is possible. [/]

Oh! I know! We should circulate a story about one of their leaders being a pederast.

Posted by: BCochran1981 at August 22, 2012 10:08 AM (da5Wo)

91 The thing about the mythical obama likeability is that people will not tell an anonymous pollster that they dislike a Black person, especially, if you can tell the poll taker is Black from their voice. We have all been beaten so heavily and often with the Diversity with Sharp Racist Points Stick to the point where we just keep our opinions about the personal merits of this or that person of color to ourselves.

Posted by: Will Be Taking Applications and Assimilating The Love-slaves at August 22, 2012 10:09 AM (kXoT0)

92 Son of a....

Posted by: BCochran1981 at August 22, 2012 10:09 AM (da5Wo)

93 Prince Reebus extends a hand of friendship to Sarah Palin?? The Star Khan has no allies, only interests.

Posted by: toby928© Ravel Rouser at August 22, 2012 10:09 AM (QupBk)

94 I personally don't believe Wall Street wants Romney.

Wall street types won't fare well in collapse/dissolution of the USA. They'll tend to be hanging from lamp posts along with the politicians.

Posted by: @PurpAv at August 22, 2012 10:10 AM (WnzOT)

95 Let me clarify. He should be 20-30 points ahead if the media and minority vote were not working against him. Including those would reduce his lead to 10 points. Clinton was 15-20 points ahead of Bush at this point in 1992.

Posted by: Reality Check at August 22, 2012 10:10 AM (hvzWz)

96 they want to use Sarah Palin to brighten things up with the demoralized base

...all done with Romney's okay, of course

Posted by: soothsayer at August 22, 2012 02:02 PM (G/zuv)

-------------------------------------------

Sorry that you seem so demoralized sooth. But please don't project what you feel onto so many others.

I've been going through the news and the blogs that I follow and I'm not sensing any demoralization. Just the recognition that the Aiken episode is a setback but not the death-bell. I'm still seeing a lot of intense optimism out there.

I'm feeling optimistic too.

Posted by: Soona at August 22, 2012 10:12 AM (y0DOT)

97 In fact, old people vote. In droves. They will not like all their medicare money paying for the abortions of tarts like Sandra Fluke. Could really backfire. Let them make their convention ALL about abortion. See how that works

Posted by: thunderb at August 22, 2012 10:12 AM (Dnbau)

98 I do believe, however, that they might be funding him with the secret purpose of undermining his campaign by making him take wildly unpopular stances on gay marriage, medicare, etc.

HA! Do you really believe that? Giving a candidate money will make a candidate take wildly unpopular positions? What's the upside for Romney? He has money, he wants the presidency. Wildly unpopular positions remove the presidency from Romney's grasp. He's smart enough to realize that. He's even (I'm about to blow your mind Reality) smarter than you! So again, what's the upside for Romney?

Posted by: bonhomme at August 22, 2012 10:12 AM (4QSOR)

99 He should be 20-30 points ahead if the media and minority vote were not working against him.

And if it weren't for gravity, we'd all have flying cars.

Posted by: @PurpAv at August 22, 2012 10:12 AM (WnzOT)

100 IT'S ALIVE! IT'S ALIIIIIIIVVVVVEEEEEE!!!!!!

Posted by: filbert at August 22, 2012 10:12 AM (smvTK)

101 Quoting Mallamutt: "I was promised Gerg! Instead, all I got is cat piss and Reality Check. What is the point of putting up bait trapping poll threads and Gerg does not show up? What the hell, is he doing a double at the glory hole?"

I dunno. CP and RC have been pretty entertaining. So much so that they could easitly get jobs as reporters for NBCCBSABCCNNRestOfTheMediaExceptForMostOfFox.

Posted by: Mr_Write at August 22, 2012 10:13 AM (VJUQK)

102 Prince Reebus extends a hand of friendship to Sarah Palin??

Posted by: soothsayer at August 22, 2012 02:00 PM (G/zuv)

If the Gotham princess had actually listened to the clip from Levin's show, rather than reading a headline and rushing here to be 'a day ahead of everyone else' she would know that they were discussing what HAD happened regarding the invitation to Palin.

Posted by: Tami at August 22, 2012 10:13 AM (X6akg)

103 Clinton was 15-20 points ahead of Bush at this point in 1992.

Posted by: Reality Check at August 22, 2012 02:10 PM (hvzWz)

I'm sure Ross Perot had absolutely nothing to do with that.

Posted by: Adam at August 22, 2012 10:14 AM (/YJYi)

104 I just can't decide. Butterscotch. Banana. Tapioca. I think I'm gonna have a real bad tummy ache 11/7. I mean a lightweight like me mixes a tub of all three with a handful of Blantons shots and...

Posted by: teej at August 22, 2012 10:14 AM (cWpCn)

105 Dims around DC are pinning hopes on Ohio and Florida.

Posted by: Jean at August 22, 2012 10:14 AM (UIE9v)

106 @61

See, this is the crux of the problem here. Romney is a deeply unlikable individual. He's liked all the elites of the GOP but does not connect with ordinary people at all. Has anyone with Romney's unfavorables ever been elected President?

No I don't see that at all. He is stiff, but he warms up. I have seen him in person twice. He is not Paul Ryan, but Paul's dad was not the president of AMC and a governor. Romney reminds me of sort of a Kennedy, but Kennedy had the war experience, which made him somewhat more open.

He is getting much better. Just think how he would do after a beer or two.

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo-intellectual at August 22, 2012 10:14 AM (3ZjAP)

107 @107

Agreed! What to get out the Evangelical base? Just do it. PLEASE.

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo-intellectual at August 22, 2012 10:15 AM (3ZjAP)

108 Damn, that Wisconsin news barely moves the numbers. The likelihood of us taking the Senate is now 90.71%.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at August 22, 2012 10:16 AM (Suq+u)

109 @104

Bullshit. Clinton was never ahead by 15 points. link?

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo-intellectual at August 22, 2012 10:17 AM (3ZjAP)

110 The revised partisan split is 31/23/30

Sorry, I'll be the first to say this, but AP needs math help. 31+23+30=84. Where in the h-e-double hockey sticks are the other 16%?

Posted by: Kevin in ABQ at August 22, 2012 10:17 AM (XrGnJ)

111 89, her?

Posted by: Jean at August 22, 2012 10:17 AM (UIE9v)

112 Hey PurpleAV, whatever happened with your lightbulb breakthrough? You said something about how you found a technique that scientifically shouldn't work, but did. Maybe I'm misremembering.

Posted by: bonhomme at August 22, 2012 10:18 AM (4QSOR)

113 I have my suspicions that the prescient oracle of cat piss works for the CBO. The predictions they are making over there seem to be way ahead of what I read here.

"CBO warns of deep recession if Congress fails to avert 'fiscal cliff'"

http://tinyurl.com/8mvkj5w

Posted by: Buzzsaw at August 22, 2012 10:18 AM (tf9Ne)

114 See, this is the crux of the problem here. Romney is a deeply unlikable individual. He's liked all the elites of the GOP but does not connect with ordinary people at all. Has anyone with Romney's unfavorables ever been elected President? Dude, read the article in the sidebar titled "Like a Boss". Romney has Ryan to be one of the regular guys, and stop hiding his exceptional life, his exceptionalism. Like a Boss

Posted by: thunderb at August 22, 2012 10:18 AM (Dnbau)

115 "Fox 2 out of Detriot has released a poll showing Hoekstra leading Debbie Stabenow by 2."

Moving WI to 100%, MI to 50%, and CT to 50%, the probability that we take the Senate is 96.13%

Anyone have any other new polls to include *snicker*

Posted by: Dave in Fla at August 22, 2012 10:20 AM (Suq+u)

116 Sorry, I'll be the first to say this, but AP needs math help. 31+23+30=84. Where in the h-e-double hockey sticks are the other 16%?

Posted by: Kevin in ABQ at August 22, 2012 02:17 PM (XrGnJ)

-------------------------------------------------

I'm glad someone else is noticing this about many of the so-called polls. Shit must be hidden in the fine print.

Posted by: Soona at August 22, 2012 10:20 AM (y0DOT)

117 I'm worried about Florida. Help?

Posted by: Big T Party(on vacation) at August 22, 2012 10:21 AM (eDr4W)

118 I think Obama will stay with Biden because if he wins in Nov he's still going to need life/impeachment insurance.

Posted by: rabidfox at August 22, 2012 10:21 AM (clm5z)

119 Reality Check is stupid, but in post number 90 he brings the weapons-grade dumb.

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at August 22, 2012 10:21 AM (YmPwQ)

120 Wall Street has gotten over their white guilt for the most part. Just ask Jamie Dimon

Posted by: thunderb at August 22, 2012 10:24 AM (Dnbau)

121 In fact, old people vote. In droves. They will not like all their medicare money paying for the abortions of tarts like Sandra Fluke.

Could really backfire. Let them make their convention ALL about abortion. See how that works

Posted by: thunderb at August 22, 2012 02:12 PM (Dnbau)

Exactly, Tell Grandma she can't have her BP meds or her prescription for The Rheumatizz or The Sciatica, so that little sandy can f@ck like a mink for free, and Grandma will damn sure vote agin ya. Gramma don't likee da sluts no how anyway. Tell Grandpa that he can't have his Viagra, Levitra, or Cialis so he can't have his shot at the f@cking, so little sandie can have her sexual freedom, and Grandpa will sure as Hell vote agin ya.

Posted by: Will Be Taking Applications and Assimilating The Love-slaves at August 22, 2012 10:25 AM (kXoT0)

122 I think Obama will stay with Biden because if he wins in Nov he's still going to need life/impeachment insurance. Posted by: rabidfox at August 22, 2012 02:21 PM (clm5z) ----------------------------------------------------- Who is going to impeach him? The repukes don't have the dangling courage units to even mention it. Look at what he has gotten away with thus far? The dummycrat congress too. We have entered the land where anything goes. If this guy wins another term we are well and truly fucked.

Posted by: Truck Monkey at August 22, 2012 10:25 AM (jucos)

123 seniors vote and given the choice between medicare or abortion on demand, they will choose medicare the tramp vote will be busy, working the convention

Posted by: thunderb at August 22, 2012 10:27 AM (Dnbau)

124 Hey PurpleAV, whatever happened with your lightbulb breakthrough?

Obama and the depression happened. VC market is dry they're all scared andwaiting until Obama is gone, big corps only interested if they can get it for 1/100th what its worth. Can't go overseas to Germany/China/Russia until the international patents come through (which takes forever). Oakridge was keen to provide a phat grant, but the lab director said all that stimulus money he was supposed to get for this kinda stuff never made it out of Washington (and we now know where it all went)

Posted by: @PurpAv at August 22, 2012 10:31 AM (WnzOT)

125 WHAT KEEPS OBAMA IN THE GAME:
+8 approval vs -10 for Romney.

I just refuse to believe this. I fully accept that I might be deluding myself by relying on the very small sample size of anecdotal evidence, but I do not know a single person who thinks Obama is "likeable" who is not also excited to vote for him this coming November. Every Romney voter I know can't stand the SCOAMF, regardless of how politically engaged they might be. On this question more than any other, I think a lot white people are straight-up lying to pollsters because of the possible perception of "racism" by stating otherwise.

Posted by: holygoat at August 22, 2012 10:32 AM (XnwWl)

126 Hey Mitt, inform everyone people with integrity don't let billion dollar swindlers like Corzine off the hook. That your justice will get on that one fast. Teh FBI is really good at financial crimes when properly motivated. Follow that amount of money and I guarantee it will lead to some pretty interesting places.

Posted by: teej at August 22, 2012 10:32 AM (cWpCn)

127 #132 Truck Monkey: I know. But, frankly, that's the only reason I can see for Obama not forcing Biden out and then "leaking" to the news media that the man's apparently had a stroke or some other stuff. Obama has no compunctions about throwing people under the bus.

Posted by: rabidfox at August 22, 2012 10:33 AM (clm5z)

128 Interesting to see how many people were sampled in this poll...basically with Rasmussen and PPP with Romney up 1 and this poll with Obama up three shows a great sign for Romney. When you win a state by 13 and now are tied with trend moving away from you that is a good thing for Mitt and not good for Obama. No doubt Money will have to spent now in WI and more than likely in MI by Obama and that is GREAT!! He is dwindling resources and Mitt still has not even touched his stash! I cannot wait to see Mitt, Paul and Scott crisscross WI and hammer Obama. I think there are more undecideds in WI than being reported in the polls. I do not think Obama would be plus 8 in WI when you see him in other battleground states tanking from 42-45 and WI is not that far off. I think CAC is right at worst it is a tie in WI but the trending is moving against Obama and that is all over the country! WI will go to Mitt and Paul...this state is ripe for the picking and the people on the ticket, as well as, those behind know WI well. The GOP and TEA PARTY did exceptional work for Walker in June and will again in Nov!!

Posted by: bluerose75 at August 22, 2012 10:33 AM (HDcKc)

129 I'm worried about Florida.

Don't be. Enough of the senior and Jewish vote has turned on Obama that he can't win here. It won't show in the polling because they're using obsolete correction factors.

Posted by: @PurpAv at August 22, 2012 10:35 AM (WnzOT)

130 I think a lot white people are straight-up lying to pollsters because of the possible perception of "racism" by stating otherwise.

Not just whites, its everyone lying to pollsters this time around.

Posted by: @PurpAv at August 22, 2012 10:36 AM (WnzOT)

131 justice depth. Sorry

Posted by: teej at August 22, 2012 10:37 AM (+jNI+)

132 PurpAv, what's the down-low on Nelson? I can't stand the bastard but I suspect that I might be a minority in this state.

Posted by: rabidfox at August 22, 2012 10:37 AM (clm5z)

133 Justice depth? I give up. dept. dept.

Posted by: teej at August 22, 2012 10:39 AM (+jNI+)

134 Same problem in VA, they are using blanket turnout models instead of regional ones.

Posted by: Jean at August 22, 2012 10:40 AM (elbGQ)

135 Yep, Romney should hang the Corzine albatross around Obama's neck and flog it like an idiot stepchild.

A RICO prosecution with threats of 20 year federal prison sentences would loosen a lot of tongues...

Posted by: @PurpAv at August 22, 2012 10:41 AM (WnzOT)

136 Back in the Bain days, Mitt was a director on the board of the company I worked for at the time. He was very smart, very good looking, and very very likable. If he hadn't been happily married, every straight woman in the company would have been after him. I met him a few times and he was gracious and suprisingly humble. Can't believe the man I once brought coffee to in a warehouse will be the next President.

And....Obama is the anti-sexy. ewwwwww!

Posted by: 56 and loving RR at August 22, 2012 10:43 AM (e9kQC)

137 Anyone want to guess, post-Akin, whether the RR campaign will bring up Obama's THREE votes against Illinois' Born Alive legislation? You wanna drag rape into the campaign? OK, how about, as one poster said earlier, allowing babies to die in a trashcan?

Let Obama explain that shit. RR don't have to explain jackall about rape victims, that's not on them. Born Alive IS on Obama. And yeah, Obama has an "explanation" for his votes, a convoluted, complicated one...sure that will work.

Akin is a jerk, he's going to lose. And frankly, the people who are willing to tar the entire GOP with his crap aren't ever going to vote GOP anyway. He's been strongly disavowed by the GOP. RR need to simply point out the truth about Obama's War on Babies.

Posted by: watchtheface at August 22, 2012 10:44 AM (ROdby)

138 Obama hasn't even returned Corzines cash

Posted by: Jean at August 22, 2012 10:44 AM (elbGQ)

139 I do not get the "everybody hates Romney and he is deeply unlikeable" meme. He was not my candidate, but, not because he was unlikeable. I think he is the quintessential "nice" guy. As a woman, I find him attractive and likeable. A lot of very rich guys when faced with wife with breast cancer and MS would have dumped the sick wifey with a nice settlement and gone onto a trophy wife. No, he did what a real man does when the woman he loves get sick, he sticks by her and does the best he can for. That resonates with women. John Edwards is one of the most despised rich men in America for the way he treated a dying woman.

Posted by: Will Be Taking Applications and Assimilating The Love-slaves at August 22, 2012 10:45 AM (kXoT0)

140 Couple of things:

Include Hoevde in a rally up in the Appleton/Green Bay market. He did unbelievably well against Thompson there. His debt concerns resonated with the voters.

Give those here in the WOW a breather we've had a lot of haulin to do for the last year and a half. Turnout and the enthusiasm will be there when it matters most.

This one is only a theory (and likely pie in the sky) but the AA numbers do not shock me because there is a war going on in the city limits of Milwaukee (besides the usual violence). You have Mayor Barrett doing nothing for the community (huge UE %) while trying to get a choo choo going on the East Side/Downtown. The recent primaries here saw a very popular school choice Democrat and somewhat Moderate Mark Fields lose in the primary to a leftist community organizer and Sandy Pasch (white) move into a historically black district to win a primary after hers was drawn out in redistricting. There was a big dust up there over voting with "your color."

Obama won't get the turnout he needs from Milwaukee because of it.

Posted by: H Badger at August 22, 2012 10:46 AM (n/0Nw)

141 And....Obama is the anti-sexy. ewwwwww! Posted by: 56 and loving RR at August 22, 2012 02:43 PM (e9kQC)

In no way is Mom jeans obama so far down Theta male scale as far as Romney is up the Alpha male scale.

Posted by: Will Be Taking Applications and Assimilating The Love-slaves at August 22, 2012 10:47 AM (kXoT0)

142 Nine new women speakers at the Dem Convention because of that asshole Akin. I guess if we be quit it will just fade away

Posted by: Avi at August 22, 2012 10:48 AM (Gx3Fe)

143 I know it would help but do the tongues really need to be loosened ya think purp? That kind of dollars would have to be electronic transfers wouldn't it? And I would think FBI could follow every electron if the boss said do it. I know nothing for sure in these matters is why I'm asking.

Posted by: teej at August 22, 2012 10:50 AM (6Zy+s)

144 151, Romney could have added a second and third, maybe a matched set of gingers or a couple of Japanese maids, but he stayed true! tears

Posted by: Jean at August 22, 2012 10:50 AM (elbGQ)

145 PurpAv, what's the down-low on Nelson?

I can't call this one. Nelson is one of the most liberal senators that has ever existed (even more liberal that Ted Kennedy). Mack has strong north/central FL support. It may come down to turnout.

I think Nelson originally got elected because of the ex-astronaut thing. People liked that, it showed he wasn't an idiot. He's got a rep for being fairly responsive to general constituent issues. Mack was somewhat weaker in that area last time he was senator. Not abysmal, but weaker.

Posted by: @PurpAv at August 22, 2012 10:53 AM (WnzOT)

146 I do not get the "everybody hates Romney and he is deeply unlikeable" meme.

---

Mere leftist projection. Ignore it.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at August 22, 2012 10:56 AM (aHR5E)

147 Nine new women speakers at the Dem Convention because of that asshole Akin.

---

Oh joy, more shrill feminists (BIRM). That'll really sway the independents.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at August 22, 2012 10:57 AM (aHR5E)

148 FBI could follow every electron if the boss said do it.

Maybe, maybe not. They had a long time to sanitize the trail before it blew up in their faces. The shredders and degaussers were undoubtedly working overtime.

Still, some lower level employee who sniffed that something was amiss might have created a thumb drive with the rosetta stone on it as insurance. But they'd only deploy that if it were necessary or if Corzine failed to pay their (inevitable) hush money demands. I'm guessing he paid.

Posted by: @PurpAv at August 22, 2012 11:03 AM (WnzOT)

149 Anyone want to guess, post-Akin, whether the RR campaign will bring up Obama's THREE votes against Illinois' Born Alive legislation? You wanna drag rape into the campaign? OK, how about, as one poster said earlier, allowing babies to die in a trashcan?

Posted by: watchtheface at August 22, 2012 02:44 PM (ROdby)

Yeah, that's a great response if the Obama team decides to go there. And by "Obama Team" I mean ANY of his surrogates, official or otherwise. Pro-life with exceptions for rape/incest is the majority position in America today, and I think the nuking of Akin has been sufficient to guard against any traction the left might hope to get from him. If they really want to go there, though, hit them with Obama voting to kill living infants.

Posted by: holygoat at August 22, 2012 11:25 AM (XnwWl)

150 Friggin awesome. Looks like Baumgartner in Washington is blowing it tho. I was looking at that as a dark horse race.

Posted by: Schnack at August 22, 2012 11:36 AM (+EXSF)

151 Thompson - Baldwin is going to end up killing Obama in WI, because it's going to depress D turnout, and raise R turnout.

Posted by: Greg Q at August 22, 2012 11:43 AM (4Pleu)

152 Local news outlets reporting this poll, stating that it is within the margin of error.

Posted by: mama winger in Paul Ryan's district at August 22, 2012 03:28 PM (P6QsQ)

153 Checking in from Vegas... See the MU poll has Obama ahead and near the 50% mark. Probably safe for the Pres. The morning news woman here in Las Vegas (some big black woman married to a football player) referred to Obama as "our President" when discussing his appearance here today. Will be interesting to see what Quinnipiac has to say tomorrow.

Posted by: toldyaso at August 22, 2012 06:05 PM (/y2g+)

Hide Comments | Add Comment | Refresh | Top

Comments are disabled. Post is locked.

151kb generated in CPU 0.0453, elapsed 0.2283 seconds.
64 queries taking 0.199 seconds, 281 records returned.
Powered by Minx 1.1.6c-pink.