June 22, 2012
— CAC Realized I started these too late in the week and wanted the final with leaners included before week's end, so here is part four:
Post-Wisconsin I've been working with JohnE on expanding the Decision Desk to 50-state coverage. In the meantime, I've kept my eye on polling data and will continue to reveal the current projection of the Presidential race.
Finally, we introduce the swing states, those which may show the most activity jumping between the President and Romney. The lean Obama, lean Romney, and toss-up states make up the largest bloc of electoral votes outside the solids. They are, as their name implies, the most volitile. In most if not all of these either contender enjoys at best a five-point edge over their opponent, in several (Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Colorado) we are talking a point or less.
With this final category (split into three groups) added, President Obama enjoys a 263-253 edge over Mitt Romney, with 22 electoral votes as tossups.
Map below the fold.
Dark red/blue states are the solids we showed in the kickoff thread, bright red/blue states are the likely, cerulean blue /bright pink are the "favored" states, and the light blue, light red, and purple states are your swing states.
"SOLID" 131 electoral votes
"LIKELY" 37 electoral votes
"FAVORED" 26 electoral votes
"SWING" 69 electoral votes
Governor Mitt Romney enjoys:
"SOLID" 159 electoral votes
"LIKELY" 47 electoral votes
"FAVORED" 0 electoral votes
"SWING" 47 electoral votes
Much of Obama's "lead" overall is misleading, and unlike the findings of other analysts, the blue states, particularly in the midwest, are shaky ground for him. Two of the largest states in the swing category (lean/tossups) are in Romney's camp, and one more would make the President's re-election virtually impossible. A clever strategy for the President would be to fall back onto his "wall" in the midwest and northeast, as "ceding" smaller EV states wouldn't cost him nearly as dearly as, say, a Michigan or Pennsylvania.
The map also shows the way the United States has changed in the last decade. The midwest has become more competitive for the Republicans, the Southwest and Virginia far more favorable to the Democrats. Pretending these shifts aren't actually happening will result in a lot of misleading predictions and disappointment for either party refusing to accept them. Republicans face the challenge of defending Virginia, once a solid red state, and the SW corner of the Sun Belt. Democrats face the wrath of blue collar workers around the Great Lakes, in some regions more than they ever had (the Iron Range in Minnesota, Western Pennsylvania, UP Michigan, etc).
There is always one state or region that a close race boils down to. We are at a crossroads between a 2000/2004 race and a 1988/2008 one, so I'm going with a region of states that went heavily for Obama in 2008, split in 2000 and 2004, and went for the Republicans in a big way in 2010:
If Obama holds all of these states, he wins re-election handily. If he cedes at least one, things get close. If he cedes two of the big prizes, he is done. As the campaign heats up, wonders of wonders, most analysts' focus will draw to these states and away from the current suspects of Colorado and Virginia, Nevada and Florida. These states have had the widest swings in political preference and suffered terribly in the recession; several have whole regions that have failed to recover by even the tiniest of margins since 2009. This is the battleground, whether we wishcast for someplace else or just accept it.
Like in the previous threads, if you are available to cover on election night in November (as part of an expanded project a la what we did with Wisconsin), contact me via twitter email, as it would be easier to keep addys around: theoneandonlyfinn at gmail.com. Mention your state. Also if you volunteered in the last thread shoot me a message to get the list growing. If you live in a solid/likely state, you can still contribute with senate or house races, but you will probably be assigned counties in the closest swing state to you to help report.
If I have already replied, no need to re-send, I have you down.
Posted by: CAC at
05:24 PM
| Comments (153)
Post contains 738 words, total size 5 kb.
Posted by: Kasper Hauser at June 22, 2012 05:29 PM (tLVmI)
Posted by: steevy at June 22, 2012 05:29 PM (Ts9tU)
Apart from identifying likely areas of interest, how meaningful is this sort of electoral map five months before the election?
Posted by: Looking closely at June 22, 2012 05:29 PM (+PDlV)
Posted by: Kate A at June 22, 2012 05:31 PM (kko3a)
"...how meaningful is this sort of electoral map five months before the election?"
I'm still trying to figure out what the hell he's talking about. Somebody just tell me if all this mappy mapness bodes well for us or not.
Posted by: Burn the Witch at June 22, 2012 05:32 PM (X9iJd)
Posted by: Burn the Witch at June 22, 2012 05:33 PM (X9iJd)
Posted by: Burn the Witch at June 22, 2012 09:32 PM (X9iJd)
I'm not doing as much of a happy dance as I'd like.
Posted by: someone at June 22, 2012 05:34 PM (bqjJT)
Posted by: Hoss Fuentes at June 22, 2012 05:36 PM (rO1vw)
Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at June 22, 2012 05:36 PM (famk3)
Posted by: Alex Stephens at June 22, 2012 05:36 PM (1/13k)
Posted by: Alex Stephens at June 22, 2012 05:37 PM (1/13k)
Sitting together on a train were Pres. Obama, George W. Bush, a little old lady, and a young blonde girl with large breasts.
The train goes into a dark tunnel and a few seconds later there is the sound of a loud slap.
When the train emerges from the tunnel, Obama has a bright red hand print on his cheek.
No one speaks.
The old lady thinks: Obama must have groped the Blonde in the dark, and she slapped him.
The blonde girl thinks: Obama must have tried to grope me in the dark, but missed and fondled the old lady and she slapped him.
Obama thinks: Bush must have groped the blonde in the dark. She tried to slap him but missed and got me instead.
George Bush thinks: I can't wait for another tunnel, so I can slap the shit out of Obama again!!
Posted by: scottst at June 22, 2012 05:38 PM (2S8JC)
Pennsylvania needs a shove.
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at June 22, 2012 05:39 PM (uMSNt)
Posted by: rickl at June 22, 2012 05:39 PM (sdi6R)
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at June 22, 2012 05:39 PM (piMMO)
Posted by: Bob From Virginia at June 22, 2012 05:39 PM (9oOfl)
Posted by: Sonnyspats at June 22, 2012 05:40 PM (Qr9Rc)
Posted by: Jean at June 22, 2012 05:41 PM (a9Izx)
Posted by: StPatrick_TN at June 22, 2012 05:41 PM (lJJMb)
Great video of Rep. Trey Gowdy's response to Pelosi who accuses R's of using F&F contempt vote of Holder to supress votes.
A Republican with balls.....I think I'll faint.
Posted by: Cheri at June 22, 2012 05:42 PM (0s4YQ)
Posted by: Beto at June 22, 2012 05:43 PM (BAnPT)
Fucking carpetbaggers.
Posted by: logprof at June 22, 2012 09:42 PM (ykSKg)
Indeed, said this reverse carpetbagger.
Posted by: Hoss Fuentes at June 22, 2012 05:43 PM (rO1vw)
Posted by: Thunderb at June 22, 2012 05:44 PM (Dnbau)
Let's see that man card.
Posted by: Burn the Witch at June 22, 2012 09:29 PM (X9iJd)
Fuck off.
Posted by: The Ocean Blue at June 22, 2012 05:44 PM (ykSKg)
No, it's not. This will look very different by Labor Day. This guy is not going to be re-elected--the economy stinks, his base is frayed, and he has no message.
It's actually over the other way.
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at June 22, 2012 05:44 PM (WEHb4)
Posted by: StPatrick_TN at June 22, 2012 05:45 PM (lJJMb)
Posted by: Miss80sBaby at June 22, 2012 05:45 PM (d6QMz)
Posted by: Tami at June 22, 2012 05:50 PM (X6akg)
Posted by: Thunderb at June 22, 2012 05:50 PM (Dnbau)
Posted by: Hoss Fuentes at June 22, 2012 05:50 PM (rO1vw)
Posted by: Cheri at June 22, 2012 05:51 PM (0s4YQ)
OR a swing state??? OR would be red if you took out the I-5 corridor (Portland - Salem - Eugene). Same for WA State if you cut out SEATAC area...
Liberalism gotta be linked to the rainy weather in this part of the country....not enough anti-depressives for everyone here...
Posted by: Mjölnir the banhammer at June 22, 2012 05:52 PM (Jls4P)
Posted by: Mjölnir the banhammer at June 22, 2012 09:52 PM (Jls4P)
You would think booze or pot would help with that. Sure, they're depressants, but at least you have a good time.
Posted by: Hoss Fuentes at June 22, 2012 05:53 PM (rO1vw)
Posted by: MiloX at June 22, 2012 05:53 PM (4/gzq)
off topic but yoicks:
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., thinks that President Obama should unilaterally eliminate the debt ceiling, rather than negotiate with Congress to spend more money when the United States hits the debt ceiling later this year.
“I would like to see the Constitution used to protect the country’s full faith and credit, as the Constitution does,” Pelosi told reporters Wednesday. She was endorsing the idea that Obama should use the 14th Amendment — which states that “The validity of the public debt of the United States . . . shall not be questioned” — to circumvent House Republicans who want spending cuts in exchange for another debt ceiling hike.
who was the Repub member of the House who said Pelosi was stupid..?
Posted by: mallfly at June 22, 2012 05:54 PM (NI3M5)
"We're all watching the Sandusky verdict rather than making paint chip or prevert jokes, aren't we?"
Why the hell I'm subjecting myself to intermittent images of Sheppy's overly-scalpeled cheeks and nose is beyond me.
Posted by: Burn the Witch at June 22, 2012 05:54 PM (X9iJd)
Let's see that man card.
This would fall under the 'Bob Ross Exemption'.
See the appendices in the AoSHQ Style Guide.
Posted by: garrett at June 22, 2012 05:55 PM (2kvw5)
Posted by: Cheri at June 22, 2012 05:55 PM (0s4YQ)
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at June 22, 2012 05:56 PM (piMMO)
Posted by: Thunderb at June 22, 2012 05:56 PM (Dnbau)
Posted by: Ma Bell at June 22, 2012 05:56 PM (uVuwp)
Posted by: Tami at June 22, 2012 09:54 PM (X6akg)
And why not Bill Hemmer, what with his rakish charm and unresolved sexual tension with Meghan Kelly. Don't believe me? Pay close attention on New Year's Eve.
Posted by: Hoss Fuentes at June 22, 2012 05:56 PM (rO1vw)
Posted by: Margarita DeVille at June 22, 2012 05:56 PM (C8mVl)
Posted by: Cheri at June 22, 2012 05:56 PM (0s4YQ)
Posted by: Thunderb at June 22, 2012 09:54 PM (Dnbau)
--Child molesters and terrorists are the lowest of the mow there. I do not approve of 99% of "prison justice," but if a sentence is ridiculously light, well, that's where the 1% comes from. . . .
Posted by: logprof at June 22, 2012 05:57 PM (ykSKg)
NV+FL (seems likely)+OH = bye bye Lightbringer. If CAC is correct as far as PA being in play / going red, then IA, VA, and MI will have flipped before then and it will be a win for team Red. It won't be a mandate, though, just a tantrum cuz us widdle babies want our jobs and are mad at daddy O.
Posted by: StPatrick_TN at June 22, 2012 05:57 PM (lJJMb)
Posted by: Tami at June 22, 2012 09:54 PM (X6akg)
Moe and Curley were tied up.
Posted by: Cicero Kid at June 22, 2012 05:57 PM (HaUJF)
Posted by: Thunderb at June 22, 2012 05:58 PM (Dnbau)
****
Grown men, perhaps. Shep has managed, two days in a row, to get me to cheer for him. He is very...very...pissed off about people referring to the acts with those boys as "intercourse" and "sex" rather than the correct term, which is "rape".
It is not intercourse when a child is involved. It is RAPE!
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at June 22, 2012 05:59 PM (piMMO)
Posted by: Uncledave at June 22, 2012 06:00 PM (1qgTs)
Good for Shep. That needs to be said, and said, and said, ad infinitum.
Posted by: StPatrick_TN at June 22, 2012 06:00 PM (lJJMb)
Posted by: Thunderb at June 22, 2012 09:58 PM (Dnbau)
--Said death penalty may then be administered "off the books," a la Geoghan.
Posted by: logprof at June 22, 2012 06:00 PM (ykSKg)
You're way underestimating the government employee/contractor/libtard vote. Fairfax will be huge for Obama.
Posted by: Not Drinking Nearly Enough at June 22, 2012 06:01 PM (HtUdo)
Oh you bastard that was unkind. Mr. Wu has a word for people like you.
Posted by: StPatrick_TN at June 22, 2012 06:02 PM (lJJMb)
Posted by: Thunderb at June 22, 2012 06:02 PM (Dnbau)
My wife and I want to make a website called fuckyoubobross.com where we invite a guest over and we all try to paint what Bob is painting at the same time he is.
It involves a lot of frustration, cursing, and criticizing of The Master as he suddenly decides to ruin some Happy Little Stream with a big black line. Our premature celebration that Mr. Ross has finally screwed up are dashed against his Happy Little Rocks as he manages, in seconds, to turn it into a plausible Happy Big tree with Maybe A Happy Little Squirrel Family Lives Right In There by scraping his pocket knife across the canvass a couple of times with pffhthalo blue.
Posted by: Burn the Witch at June 22, 2012 06:03 PM (X9iJd)
Posted by: Thunderb at June 22, 2012 09:58 PM (Dnbau)
Is the death penalty a possibility for these charges?
Posted by: Tami at June 22, 2012 06:06 PM (X6akg)
Posted by: Burn the Witch at June 22, 2012 06:06 PM (X9iJd)
The Obama campaign is desperate!!
Now you can your wedding guests donate money to the Obama campaign instead of you!
This is trashy, desperate, sleazy, and the person who came up with this is a fool.
http://www.barackobama.com/news/entry/the-obama-event-registry
Posted by: Rachel at June 22, 2012 06:07 PM (s9phV)
Posted by: mallfly at June 22, 2012 06:08 PM (NI3M5)
****
A Bob Ross party where each guest gets their own easel and paints would be fun.
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at June 22, 2012 06:09 PM (piMMO)
Posted by: StPatrick_TN at June 22, 2012 10:02 PM (lJJMb)
Glad I taught him *that* fuckin' word.
Posted by: Al Swearingen at June 22, 2012 06:10 PM (ykSKg)
Let's focus on the important things:
Greta van Susteren: "The Penn State football program will everntually be up and running again."
Posted by: Jim in Virginia at June 22, 2012 06:10 PM (nbRuB)
Given the stringent rules to reporters about when the verdict will be known to the Nation, it will be a few more minutes yet as they go through all 48 counts and enumerate the verdicts, then they'll be a dismissal of the jury and finally an adjournment when the press will be allowed to report the verdict.
I'm guessing 15 minutes to 45 minutes. from now.
Posted by: Bitter Clinger and all that at June 22, 2012 06:11 PM (CP+yl)
Posted by: Margarita DeVille at June 22, 2012 06:11 PM (C8mVl)
Posted by: Thunderb at June 22, 2012 06:12 PM (Dnbau)
Posted by: Tami at June 22, 2012 06:12 PM (X6akg)
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at June 22, 2012 06:12 PM (piMMO)
Posted by: logprof at June 22, 2012 06:12 PM (ykSKg)
"A Bob Ross party where each guest gets their own easel and paints would be fun.
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at June 22, 2012 10:09 PM (piMMO)"
Actually it would. The fact that he can crank out such nice little nature paints so fast with a two inch paintbrush and a butterknife in such short time is amazing to me.
Not quite as amazing as his afro, but pretty close.
Posted by: Burn the Witch at June 22, 2012 06:12 PM (X9iJd)
How the hell did they find him 'not guilty' on that charge?!
Posted by: Tami at June 22, 2012 06:13 PM (X6akg)
Posted by: Cheri at June 22, 2012 06:14 PM (0s4YQ)
Posted by: mallfly at June 22, 2012 06:14 PM (NI3M5)
Posted by: CoolCzech at June 22, 2012 06:14 PM (niZvt)
Posted by: Tami at June 22, 2012 06:14 PM (X6akg)
Posted by: BurtTC at June 22, 2012 06:15 PM (2pG7H)
Posted by: tdpwells at June 22, 2012 06:15 PM (7vA7k)
Shep Smith: "He's guilty of anally raping little boys over a period of ten years."
Next step: Go after the effing coverup. A hell of a lot of people knew what Sandusky was doing- and did nothing.
Posted by: Jim in Virginia at June 22, 2012 06:16 PM (nbRuB)
Posted by: 66chevelle at June 22, 2012 06:16 PM (QjSgY)
Posted by: Whoopi Big Butt at June 22, 2012 06:16 PM (jTKU5)
Posted by: Beto at June 22, 2012 06:16 PM (BAnPT)
Posted by: Uncledave at June 22, 2012 06:16 PM (1qgTs)
Those sick bastards always find more of their kind.
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at June 22, 2012 06:18 PM (piMMO)
Did anyone else catch the "Monk" rerun tonight? It was "Mr. Monk and the Other Detective". Guest appearance by Jason Alexander (George Costanza) as a phony private investigator. While tracking a suspect.he claims to be "1/16th Cherokee". Twice as Indian as Betsy Warren!
Posted by: Lincolntf at June 22, 2012 06:18 PM (HethX)
Posted by: Thunderb at June 22, 2012 06:19 PM (Dnbau)
Posted by: Count de Monet at June 22, 2012 06:20 PM (BAS5M)
Posted by: mallfly at June 22, 2012 06:20 PM (NI3M5)
Posted by: George, Sweet Pea, El Sarco, and murderin' Johnny at June 22, 2012 06:20 PM (lJJMb)
Posted by: Bitter Clinger and all that at June 22, 2012 06:20 PM (CP+yl)
Posted by: Bitter Clinger and all that at June 22, 2012 10:20 PM (CP+yl)
=============
You need to change the channel....he's already been cuffed and put in a police car.
Posted by: Tami at June 22, 2012 06:22 PM (X6akg)
****
Precisely! That mother-f***er opened a charity and put on the face of a fine citizen, guiding youth through troubled times....
This was not a crime of passion. Not a crime of opportunity. This was a crime which involved repeated and long-term scheming and lying and intimidating and manipulating....
He was a predator and there's no way in hell others didn't have access to those children.
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at June 22, 2012 06:24 PM (piMMO)
Posted by: rickl at June 22, 2012 06:24 PM (sdi6R)
Posted by: Hrothgar at June 22, 2012 06:24 PM (i3+c5)
How about a count of He Killed JoePa
Posted by: USS Diversity at June 22, 2012 10:14 PM (cjTjM)
JoePa killed himself and yeah, I know it was facetious.
Posted by: ErikW at June 22, 2012 06:26 PM (SKdo3)
Posted by: norrin radd at June 22, 2012 06:28 PM (x1FCB)
Fox didn't even break in to the live feed to report the verdict.
I guess the feed was going to be the "official" verdict read out by some government official.
sometimes these people seem to not understand the medium.
Posted by: Bitter Clinger and all that at June 22, 2012 06:28 PM (CP+yl)
How does a woman, a mother stand by while babies are molested?
(figuratively speaking calling them babies but most mothers look at everyone as children. Well the good ones do. No not children to be bossed around but children as the future)
Posted by: Bitter Clinger and all that at June 22, 2012 06:33 PM (CP+yl)
The jury weren't informed about that before deliberations.
Posted by: Bitter Clinger and all that at June 22, 2012 10:31 PM (CP+yl)
I thought he didn't make the accusation until after the deliberation began. Or was that when it just it was made public?
Posted by: buzzion at June 22, 2012 06:36 PM (GULKT)
Yeah, moms look at their children always as 'Their babies or children", even after they're grown. Moms are like that.
How she could stand-by and let this happen to her son is quite strange...
Posted by: ChrisP at June 22, 2012 06:38 PM (626PS)
Posted by: Hrothgar at June 22, 2012 06:38 PM (i3+c5)
Virginia is one stubborn bitch. I was expecting it to move a little bit more.
Romney's doing quite well at this stage, his performance is better judged by the national trackers until we get closer. Much of the state polling is infrequently sampled and the averaged number is polluted by pollsters like PPP who have been systematically off this cycle. They produce state-level numbers which don't correlate with the known coupling (demographic and historical) between states and the national trackers which are huge, high frequency samplings.
We have more evidence for their shittiness in their WI recall projections. I especially liked Jensen getting out on Twitter after the exits came out and complimenting Barrett's pollster for being close (and by extension, his numbers)... hah, silly man.
Posted by: Uriah Heep at June 22, 2012 07:57 PM (JdSQO)
Posted by: Entropy at June 22, 2012 08:16 PM (Ci0JG)
Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at June 23, 2012 03:42 PM (i330i)
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Cerulean blue? Really?
Let's see that man card.
Posted by: Burn the Witch at June 22, 2012 05:29 PM (X9iJd)