Ace of Spades HQ

June 20, 2012

#AOSHQDD : Interim Presidential Race Forecast, Part One
— CAC

Post-Wisconsin I've been working with JohnE on expanding the Decision Desk to 50-state coverage. In the meantime, I've kept my eye on polling data and will begin to reveal the current projection of the Presidential race.
Kicking that off is a map showing the "solid" states, those which even in a landslide election will stay loyal to the designated party.

In this category, Romney leads 160 to Obama's 131 electoral votes, a total of 291 EV's not contested in the race in any conceivable scenario. How do the remaining states fall? I'll roll those subsequent maps out in coming threads.

Map below the fold.

Also, if you are available to cover on election night in November (as part of an expanded project a la what we did with Wisconsin), contact me via twitter. Mention your state. Might as well recruit more help since a few dozen states is a bit bigger than 81 counties in a cheesy one. I will focus more on the swing states for that but depending on the base of volunteers who knows?

Posted by: CAC at 06:23 PM | Comments (135)
Post contains 193 words, total size 1 kb.

1 WA, OR, NJ, MA, MN, CT not blue?

Posted by: Jim Scrummy at June 20, 2012 06:30 PM (0paMD)

2 The president is a scoamf

Posted by: phoenixgirl, team dagny at June 20, 2012 06:30 PM (Ur4mS)

3 Humiliating to be embedded in that solid blue thing on the left.

Posted by: JEM at June 20, 2012 06:31 PM (o+SC1)

4 Surprised that Arizona isn't red.

Posted by: Paul Revere at June 20, 2012 06:31 PM (nvhqg)

5 @3, yeah but think of all the havoc you can create in their minds. deep in enemy territory. it is quite sporting for me.

Posted by: Clemenza at June 20, 2012 06:33 PM (qA9lG)

6 If Michigan turned red, I'll consider moving back there...

Posted by: gigi at June 20, 2012 06:33 PM (O2jIk)

7 Buck Ofama

Posted by: Boomer Redneque, Threadslayer at June 20, 2012 06:34 PM (eQnzo)

8 CAC. I would love to be a volunteer for the November election. I'm in Central California and while we may be an Obama strong hold we may have two very interesting ballot measures regarding raising taxes and, I think, three new Rep congressional seats-- as you well know! Anyway I'm ready to help!

Posted by: Sunny at June 20, 2012 06:34 PM (f/C0H)

9 Lookin forward to reading your stuff all summer!

Posted by: Jack Bauer's Dad at June 20, 2012 06:35 PM (VuZKK)

10 Whahooo!

Lotsa stuff getting real, real soon.

Posted by: Real Lotta Stuff Believer at June 20, 2012 06:36 PM (7+pP9)

11 Hey, CAC. Don't know if you really care, but if you do a roll-over of the map it looks like your real name comes up. Given the "recent unpleasantness", thought you'd like to know if you hadn't seen that yet

Posted by: Boomer Redneque, Threadslayer at June 20, 2012 06:36 PM (eQnzo)

12 Damn! Ah kil't me thisun in a dozen posts and 13 minutes of bein' borned. Tha's some kinda record, ev'n fer me

Posted by: Boomer Redneque, Threadslayer at June 20, 2012 06:40 PM (eQnzo)

13 #11 My real name is also accessible on my twitter. I have no problem being out there. I prefer the nickname here because reading off my real name conjures up not images of red and blue but corned beef and drinking.

Posted by: CAC at June 20, 2012 06:40 PM (WVV74)

14 you're seriously fucking telling me that Connecticut is a swing state this year?

Posted by: Heh at June 20, 2012 06:41 PM (QTVh2)

15 Clean up in isle 3. Texas just pooped . Must have been eating blue berries.

Posted by: Deli LLama at June 20, 2012 06:41 PM (uv9eO)

Hey, I can cover in California, so you'll know the outcome here as soon as possible.

Bla Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha

Posted by: Wm T Sherman at June 20, 2012 06:43 PM (8hBZi)

17 Thank you CAC. I love your work.

Posted by: Thunderb at June 20, 2012 06:44 PM (Dnbau)

Saw my first Obama 2012 Bumper sticker, on a Prius here in Central California today...

Almost got in a wreck laughing when a guy in a Pickup flipped the Prius off... not sure if it was the Bumper sticker, the slllloooooowwww driving... or a combination of the two...

Posted by: Romeo13 at June 20, 2012 06:44 PM (lZBBB)

19 I can cover Bucks County, PA. If Romney wins big here he wins PA and the election.

Posted by: rockmom at June 20, 2012 06:45 PM (YPgCz)

20 Connecticut is about as likely to go for Romney as Montana is to go for SCOAMF.

Posted by: Heh at June 20, 2012 06:45 PM (QTVh2)

21 Arizona, Indiana, North Carolina and Missouri are voting for Romney, unless Mongol hordes appear from a time-warp and kill all their Republicans.

And what Jim said too.

Posted by: Boulder Toilet Hobo at June 20, 2012 06:45 PM (QTHTd)

22 Jimmy writes: 1 WA, OR, NJ, MA, MN, CT not blue? Yeah, no sh*t. Probability that MA doesn't go blue? ZERO.POINT.ZERO. We'll be lucky to keep a liberal-republican Senator Brown over a hard-core lefty like Warren who, it's obvious to EVERYONE, is a patent and despicable liar--and she likely will STILL win. Love your forecasts, but this particular one is nonsense.

Posted by: Boston12GS at June 20, 2012 06:45 PM (0VqvZ)

23 RE: CT NO. But in the landslide scenario, it goes red. Very unlikely but it isn't solid. Last few polls there show O up by around 10, half his lead in 2008. But don't tell the Democrats. They think this is just like 2008 (ask PPP) or 1992 (ask Bloomberg).

Posted by: CAC at June 20, 2012 06:46 PM (WVV74)

24 Posted by: Romeo13 at June 20, 2012 10:44 PM (lZBBB)

Or neither.

Obama supporter + Prius + slow driving = incredible fucking asshole douchebag.

Mr. Pickup Truck was simply recognizing the subspecies of human, and reacting accordingly.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at June 20, 2012 06:46 PM (nEUpB)

25 CAC, I can help out with MO. Just let me know.
chem dot jeff at yahoo dot com

Posted by: chemjeff at June 20, 2012 06:48 PM (LK3ef)

26 There are four categories for the AOSHQDD SOLID LIKELY (states that stick by the expected candidate except in a landslide) FAVORED (states that are going their respective ways but could shake loose if circumstances change) LEAN- (the actual swing states, which both sides will compete for, and which favor one candidate or the other at a particular moment) TOSSUP- (states far too close to call) The LEAN/TOSSUP states will be the focus.

Posted by: CAC at June 20, 2012 06:49 PM (WVV74)

Posted by: chemjeff at June 20, 2012 10:48 PM (LK3ef)

IIRC, you're out on the KC side, No? I'd be happy to help on the STL side if needed. (I'll also hit you on the twits.) I'd like to think we're a red state, but eh, who knows.

[This] @ the googles (Take that spambots!)

Also worth noting my Republican friends, and my one blue dog friend usually get pretty drink happy on election night, but I can bring the netbook and help.

Posted by: tsrblke at June 20, 2012 06:51 PM (22rSN)

28 I would volunteer for CA, but CA is the bluest of the blue. Awwright, maybe Vermont is, but I'm talking about a state that has actual cities.

Posted by: SFGoth at June 20, 2012 06:51 PM (K2qNh)

29 I'm hoping WA can change the governor to R, and I think that's possible, but I have no delusions that the presidential race will go R.

Posted by: someone at June 20, 2012 06:51 PM (bqjJT)

30 Bexar County, Texas (San Antonio). Interested in helping. catmman at hotmail dot com

Posted by: catmman at June 20, 2012 06:52 PM (C8XlI)

Posted by: tsrblke at June 20, 2012 10:51 PM (22rSN)

Yeah, I am in St. Joseph.

MO is most certainly red this year - if MO went for McCain in 2008, it's not going for Obama this year.

Yeah I'd love an election night party. Sounds like fun

Posted by: chemjeff at June 20, 2012 06:53 PM (LK3ef)

32 Massachussett(e)s isn't a solid state? Vermont?

Come on

Posted by: Ben at June 20, 2012 06:55 PM (UvdzB)

Posted by: chemjeff at June 20, 2012 10:53 PM (LK3ef)

Ahh St. Joe's the last exit with decent services on my semi-annual ride to visit my wife in Omaha during her grad school (and our engagement days.)

FWIW, hope the train to STL ($60/Round trip) and you can join us. There will likely be homebrew .

But year 2 different sides of the state might be useful, we tend to play odd ball 'round these parts. I think our ability to stay red will determine how much McCaskill can drum up support. Current predictions (mostly in my head) say "not much." so we're safe.

By the by, I said this on the twits, my dad wants a "NOBAMA" sign for his yard, anyone know where they can be had for the less than $20 cafe press price?

Posted by: tsrblke at June 20, 2012 06:57 PM (22rSN)

34 CAC, how exactly could a volunteer with no inside connections contribute to election night coverage?

Kansas City, MO here

Posted by: Jose at June 20, 2012 06:57 PM (srIqv)

35 Ben, recheck the map. Vermont is solid.

Posted by: CAC at June 20, 2012 06:57 PM (WVV74)

36 yeah I think MA, CT, NJ, OR, WA, MN are solid blue this year

Posted by: chemjeff at June 20, 2012 06:58 PM (LK3ef)

37 MO would still be interesting for the Senate race

Posted by: Jose at June 20, 2012 06:58 PM (srIqv)

38 Oh okay. I missed that. My bad.

Posted by: Ben at June 20, 2012 06:58 PM (UvdzB)

39 If I decide to do crowdsourced reporting again, you'd help with that. Missouri seems a likely R state this year, but i could use help covering if McCaskill gets the boot, you can also assist with neighboring swing states, such as Iowa. With enough coordinated volunteers we can cover all of the swing states like we did with WI but it will take a huge amount of effort, and before I go forward with it I need a pretty solid response. So far a lot of you seem interested so I'm favoring it.

Posted by: CAC at June 20, 2012 06:59 PM (WVV74)

40 Bet states that are known for being blue, but passed voter I.D. laws may turn red.

Posted by: Deli LLama at June 20, 2012 07:01 PM (uv9eO)

41 Not seeing Barry support here in Columbus, Ohio & environs. 2008 was a different story.

Posted by: Olentangy River CMH at June 20, 2012 07:01 PM (c3mby)

42 What? No huge ballsack tonight?

Posted by: Bitter Clinger and all that at June 20, 2012 07:03 PM (CP+yl)

43 Maps. I see them in my sleep.

Posted by: JohnE. at June 20, 2012 07:03 PM (nRTou)

44 The erosion of black and jewish support will put NY in play by election day. Bank on it. NY looks solid blue, but upstate is all red.

Posted by: Purp (@PurpAv) at June 20, 2012 07:04 PM (idYRZ)

45 CAC, okay, so what exactly is the level of commitment that you are expecting on election night?
because if it interferes with my drinking schedule, I may have to reconsider my commitment

Posted by: chemjeff at June 20, 2012 07:06 PM (LK3ef)

46 corned beef and drinking.

Posted by: CAC at June 20, 2012 10:40 PM (WVV74)

At wakes and such.

I think I'll go have a wee dram meself.

Posted by: Bitter Clinger and all that at June 20, 2012 07:08 PM (CP+yl)

47 #46 until your assigned counties/states/races are all in (or 99% in), you stay on it. Eastern and Central Zone states will be the easiest to do that in. Most of the swing states are in those zones.

Posted by: CAC at June 20, 2012 07:09 PM (WVV74)

48 You have my sword. I'll take ME-2-- I can be there physically if needs be and she may be in play. Failing that, wherever you want me. (@NationalStella on le Twitter).

Posted by: NewBrunswicker at June 20, 2012 07:09 PM (XBxRP)

49 Looking at the "blue" areas compared with F.A. ("Free America"), wouldn't it be nice (cue the Beach Boys) if the SCOTUS upholds Communist Ill Health this month, if the 113th Congress should make ownership of an m16 with a 3-position safety mandatory for every non-blind adult citizen, along with an acceptable level of rounds-on-target attainment (or any other weapon the Congress shall deem required... MP5, Saiga 12 with modifications (e.g., a bayonet lug), Tommy guns modified to fire the Rowland 460, or what have you.) "It's more just, Kamerad."

Posted by: Thorvald at June 20, 2012 07:09 PM (OhenJ)

50 I'm a Believer!

Posted by: The Monkees at June 20, 2012 07:11 PM (7+pP9)

51 What is involved in helping with reporting the counts?

How do we get the info to you or to post?

If I can still be anonymous, I'm willing but not if I've got to sign up somewhere official (Gov't)

Posted by: Bitter Clinger and all that at June 20, 2012 07:12 PM (CP+yl)

52 Interested. Not sure if i will help much in Tx... but I am yours if need be.

Posted by: macintx at June 20, 2012 07:12 PM (ucs8Y)

53 CAC you're probably aware of this, but in WA 99% will not be in on the night of the election. We have an all mail in system, and you don't even have to put them in the mailbox until the night of the election. So, we don't have final numbers until days later - and then they keep finding boxes of ballots that they haven't counted until they get the desired result.

Posted by: someone at June 20, 2012 07:12 PM (bqjJT)

54 #54 Washington will get covered but probably not closely. Unless we can find Gregiore's Ballotmobile to do live reporting from.

Posted by: CAC at June 20, 2012 07:14 PM (WVV74)

55 for those who say OR is solid blue, the state has been polling bad for Obama in both approval and support, could be to 2012 what IN was to 2008. as CAC has pointed out, a fluke win in a state can happen to the winner of the Pres election.

Posted by: AuthorLMendez at June 20, 2012 07:15 PM (8beAV)

56 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at June 20, 2012 07:17 PM (Xb3hu)

57 CAC you're probably aware of this, but in WA 99% will not be in on the night of the election. We have an all mail in system, and you don't even have to put them in the mailbox until the night of the election. So, we don't have final numbers until days later - and then they keep finding boxes of ballots that they haven't counted until they get the desired result. Posted by: someone Well. isn't that convenient for the dems.

Posted by: macintx at June 20, 2012 07:17 PM (ucs8Y)

58 56 for those who say OR is solid blue, the state has been polling bad for Obama in both approval and support, could be to 2012 what IN was to 2008. as CAC has pointed out, a fluke win in a state can happen to the winner of the Pres election.

Posted by: AuthorLMendez at June 20, 2012 11:15 PM (8beAV)

If OR goes red, then that means NV, CO, NM, NJ, ME also go red, so it doesn't matter.

Posted by: chemjeff at June 20, 2012 07:20 PM (LK3ef)

59 Interim Presidential Race Forecast

Racist! And Obambi eats dog!

Posted by: RoadRunner at June 20, 2012 07:24 PM (RMN93)

Thank you CAC. I love your work.

I prefer the more revealing and honest works from your earlier period.

Posted by: garrett at June 20, 2012 07:26 PM (1jJ7K)

61 CAC, although I am disappointed that we don't get a precinct-by-precinct breakdown of the swing counties in Minnesota by which to judge your predictions
maybe next time we'll get a 4,000 x 4,000 pixel clickable map

Posted by: chemjeff at June 20, 2012 07:33 PM (LK3ef)

62 I prefer the more revealing and honest works from your earlier period.

[Insert obligatory "blue period" joke]

Posted by: JohnE. at June 20, 2012 07:36 PM (nRTou)

63 I for one am glad CAC is now out of his earlier "blue" period. And MA is not solid blue this year. I give Obama a 90% chance of taking it. We're going to send one and maybe two Republican reps to Congress from MA, and Brown will win.

Posted by: Truman North, iPhone snob at June 20, 2012 07:36 PM (I2LwF)

64 Yep, blue period joke duly inserted.

Posted by: Truman North, iPhone snob at June 20, 2012 07:37 PM (I2LwF)

65
Well. isn't that convenient for the dems.

Yeah, it usually works out that way - mostly in the Uber Lib Seattle precincts.

Posted by: someone at June 20, 2012 07:37 PM (bqjJT)

66 I've been in AZ over twenty years now and can tell you for a fact that AZ is going for Romney. The Mormons are going to turn-out like they always do and there aren't enough liberal halfwits to give Zero any chance of carrying the state. Paint it red!

Posted by: Exurban Doug at June 20, 2012 07:38 PM (gD956)

67 We're actually seeing Obama 2012 tv ads in MA, which means they think it's in play.

Posted by: Truman North, iPhone snob at June 20, 2012 07:38 PM (I2LwF)

68 I live in Tampa. What exactly do you want volunteers to do?

Posted by: babygiraffes at June 20, 2012 07:39 PM (h0KX8)

69 Bexar County, Texas (San Antonio). Interested in helping.

I used to live in Bexar County. (Northwest San Antonio, five minutes away from seaworld). Spurs fan?

Posted by: JC at June 20, 2012 07:41 PM (KDDG+)

70 @68, yeah that was my first thought looking at the map--"whaddya mean Mass isn't solid?" Same for Oregon and Washington. They don't call it the Left Coast for nuthin

Posted by: Arms Merchant at June 20, 2012 07:42 PM (+XVQe)

71 Should we contact you via twitter? What is your twitter name?

Posted by: Sunny at June 20, 2012 07:42 PM (f/C0H)

72 I can help. I'm in NJ, Hudson County. I might be an eternal optimist (or dumb) but I think we are purple...

Posted by: Rochelle, Rochelle at June 20, 2012 07:43 PM (lQKBW)

73 I can help out in South Carolina and/or North Carolina. South Carolina is just margin of victory. +10% for sure. North Carolina: If Romney wins (or loses by less than 5% in) Wake County--Raleigh--he wins North Carolina.

Posted by: Paul Revere at June 20, 2012 07:44 PM (nvhqg)

74 I'm hoping WA can change the governor to R, and I think that's possible, but I have no delusions that the presidential race will go R

I lost faith in Washington after they voted to keep Senator Murray in 2010. Their mail-in election is stupid and EASILY corruptible. Doni Rossi had his governorship stolen from him.

Posted by: JC at June 20, 2012 07:46 PM (KDDG+)

75 There's so little blue on the map so far ;>

Posted by: Boots at June 20, 2012 07:47 PM (neKzn)

76 President Barack ObamaÂ’s campaign and the Obama Victory Fund spent $15 million more than they raised in May, campaign finance reports show. The campaign and the Obama Victory Fund, a joint fundraising committee with the Democratic National Committee, raised more than $54 million last month, but they spent $69 million.

Posted by: Islamic Rage Boy at June 20, 2012 07:48 PM (e8kgV)

77 74 I can help out in South Carolina and/or North Carolina. South Carolina is just margin of victory. +10% for sure. North Carolina: If Romney wins (or loses by less than 5% in) Wake County--Raleigh--he wins North Carolina.
Posted by: Paul Revere

How does Romney not win SC? Conversely, if NC goes O, how does Romney win the election? If North Carolina goes for a guy who would make FDR jealous on some things....

Posted by: SFGoth at June 20, 2012 07:51 PM (K2qNh)

78 I lost faith in Washington after they voted to keep Senator Murray in 2010. Their mail-in election is stupid and EASILY corruptible. Doni Rossi had his governorship stolen from him.

Posted by: JC at June 20, 2012 11:46 PM (KDDG+)

All you say is true. But frickin' Seattle rules the state. Several years ago I saw a breakdown. This isn't exact - but close to what I heard. Seattle 90% dem. Remainder I5 corridor suburbs etc ~ 50\50 d/r. Outside of I5 corridor 70% R. We just don't have the numbers outside of Seattle to overcome Jim McDermott voters and Dan Savage readers. But...our current AG is Republican and running for Gov - and may just be able to take that seat.

Posted by: someone at June 20, 2012 07:55 PM (bqjJT)

CAC:

I'm from Ohio and my fiancee is from Pennsylvania, so pending work schedules (we plan to ask for election day and day after off, but we'll see) we can help. Just need to know what exactly is expected.

Posted by: Jarod at June 20, 2012 08:04 PM (Jaytg)

80 CAC, sent you a tweet, @pxystick is me. I think I'm working a precinct that day/night, but if there's reporting in Iowa (Ames, Story county, or Des Moines, Polk county, 2 different districts), I can help.

Posted by: Jay in Ames at June 20, 2012 08:20 PM (sBwRF)

81 @70. I lived in northwest San Antonio near Seaworld back from '99 to '03. Boy, did we love it! I miss me some TX! @CAC, I live in solid Louisiana now. If I can help here I will or if you need me to monitor online precinct returns for other states, I can surely do that.

Posted by: HungryKitty at June 20, 2012 08:22 PM (AfBhA)

82 You know, as innovative as these maps and projections are, you really need to go the extra mile to distinguish AoS from the unwashed masses of political blogs out there. Plaid maps, brother.

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at June 20, 2012 08:24 PM (Rhie+)

83 Messed up the link in my name, lesse if this fixes it.

Just in case you need it, CAC. Otherwise, my twitter name @ gmail

Posted by: Jay in Ames at June 20, 2012 08:27 PM (sBwRF)

84 who's going to cover the results in the other 7 states that aren't on the regular maps?

Posted by: redc1c4 at June 20, 2012 08:32 PM (8MasJ)

85 @78...Romney is definitely winning SC and NC. If he loses NC, he'll need VA, CO, and OH, but I don't think this scenario is worth worrying about. Romney's winning VA as well.

Posted by: Paul Revere at June 20, 2012 08:32 PM (nvhqg)

86 Barack's got Canada sewn up, so fuggedaboutit!

Posted by: Joe Biden at June 20, 2012 08:34 PM (pQgh1)

87 167 161final question: why is democracy (in our case, constitutional representative republicanism/balance of power system) better than something else?Posted by: IdowhatIwant at June 20, 2012 09:11 PM (a4CUi)----------------------- I am a democrat [believer in democracy] because I believe in the Fall of Man. I think most people are democrats for the opposite reason. A great deal of democratic enthusiasm descends from the ideas of people like Rousseau, who believed in democracy because they thought mankind so wise and good that every one deserved a share in the government. The danger of defending democracy on those grounds is that theyÂ’re not true. . . . I find that theyÂ’re not true without looking further than myself. I donÂ’t deserve a share in governing a hen-roost. Much less a nation. . . . The real reason for democracy is just the reverse. Mankind is so fallen that no man can be trusted with unchecked power over his fellows. Aristotle said that some people were only fit to be slaves. I do not contradict him. But I reject slavery because I see no men fit to be masters. C.S. Lewis Grey Fox sez: I concur. Posted by: Grey Fox at June 20, 2012 09:14 PM (S5UY1) 180 172 Thanks. Your post is....Posted by: IdowhatIwant at June 20, 2012 09:18 PM (a4CUi)My answer to why a representative republic is superior to all other forms of government. I thought you were asking seriously... Posted by: Grey Fox at June 20, 2012 09:23 PM (S5UY1) 224 Grey Fox at June 20, 2012 09:14 PM (S5UY1 Thank you. I meant to follow that up and was accosted by IRL circumstances. My apologies. If you don't get this tonight, i will make an effort to apologize to you until you do. I'm sorry if that sounded bad and then went unfounded. Dumb. I need to quit leaving stuff hanging. Too risky. Posted by: IdowhatIwant at June 21, 2012 12:04 AM (a4CUi)

Posted by: IdowhatIwant at June 20, 2012 08:39 PM (a4CUi)

88 WA is interesting this year. Could well go for Obama,but elect a R for Governor and have the Rs pick up a Congressional plus several state legislative seats. I expect the WA state legislature to be very evenly divided in 2013.

Posted by: Leon0112 at June 20, 2012 08:40 PM (ZXoNA)

89 I can hold my nose and report on WA for AOS. (I live on the east side of the state, where people actually, you know, believe in freedom and stuff).

Posted by: Mr_Write at June 20, 2012 08:50 PM (v0N+y)

90 270towin.com has an electoral map you can play around with

Posted by: liontooth at June 20, 2012 09:07 PM (xk0Xg)

91 I'd do MN but it's Blue. And I'll be chair (head) judge for my precinct; keeping things on the level and running smoothly.

Posted by: Tonic Dog at June 20, 2012 09:12 PM (X/+QT)

92 While there is no chance Soviet Marylandistan doesn't go for Bambi, keep an eye on the Senate race here. Dan Bongino has blood in his eye and he's going for the kill. Cardin may hold on, but he's going look like he's been shot at and missed and shit at and hit if he does. If things break badly for the SCOAMF and turnout is down, I think Bongino can take him.

Posted by: Weirddave at June 20, 2012 09:14 PM (UyYYt)

93 Great article on how whacked out massholistan is: http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/06/voting_with_my_feet_in_massachusetts.html

AZ will be red thank Xenu but there is a big influx of CA tools that have infested things, not to mention the illegals. In the end, all of the Mormons and patriots will vote, can't imagine much of a turnout for the others.

Posted by: Datou at June 20, 2012 09:24 PM (jUalk)

94 Truman: hope you're right, but aren't the Obama adds more for overlap with NH? Also, Obama probably polls better than Warren; get Obama voters out and they'll vote the ticket, so, double duty w/ o putting Warren in front of the voters.

Posted by: NewEnglandDevil at June 20, 2012 09:33 PM (oT/8z)

95 WA is an outside shot for R, but it is possible. Much of the loony left is disappointed in Obama. If Obama is a walking amongst the media come November, Washington will go R with the combination upsurge in R voters and a downturn from '08 in the number of D voters. Another fun thing with Washington is that the Rs kicked butt in redistricting. It is entirely possible 6 of the 10 congressional seats go R.

Posted by: The Pitt at June 20, 2012 09:35 PM (7lbXY)

96 77 President Barack ObamaÂ’s campaign and the Obama Victory Fund spent $15 million more than they raised in May, campaign finance reports show.

Barry and David's drunken sailor spending style is going to bite them in the arse before the big push is needed. They have a massive, unproductive overhead structure built, and they are going to be out of money (like the country) before mid-October... If they're smart, they'll cut the spending and just accept defeat, but more likely they'll go $75-100 million in debt...

Posted by: Bill from Chappaqua at June 20, 2012 09:38 PM (Bxm/r)

97 OR, NV both have decent Mormon populations. Could have an effect?

Posted by: NewEnglandDevil at June 20, 2012 09:39 PM (oT/8z)

when the cubbies win the world series we're moving back so two more votes for team red

Posted by: navycopjoe at June 20, 2012 09:41 PM (VVFgD)

Delaware County PA. As a statistician, i can legally do that +/-3% stuff.

Of course i have no idea what to do...but i'm a moron so what i just said goes without saying.

Posted by: Barry at June 20, 2012 09:43 PM (3Zo6I)

100 I'm in Portlandia (OR). Any talk of it going red is delusional. The grass eaters here are strong in their herding instinct. They may be confused as to why they don't have jobs or why Obama has not stopped the war, or closed Gitmo, or any of the many promises he broke, but they know in to the bottom of their messenger bags and birkenstocks that it woud be worse if a rethuglican was in office... Nice area, but Portland is full of liberal idiots.

Posted by: Francis at June 20, 2012 09:47 PM (7/lMx)

101 A new poll of 56 former Supreme Court clerks finds that 57 percent think the individual mandate will be overturned. ThatÂ’s a 22-point jump from the last time the same group of clerks was surveyed, right before oral arguments. Back then, 35 percent thought the court would toss out the required purchase of health insurance.

Over on InTrade, the estimated likelihood of the Supreme Court overturning the mandate has marched upward ever since oral arguments, hitting 79.9 percent Wednesday morning.

Posted by: Foghorn J. Leghorn at June 20, 2012 11:15 PM (e8kgV)

102 At last summerÂ’s Blagojevich retrial, prosecutors had a distinct way to refer to the wealthy businessman: He was Â“the bribe guy,Â” who in 2008 allegedly offered millions of dollars to Rod BlagojevichÂ’s brother in exchange for appointing Jackson Jr. (D-Ill) to ObamaÂ’s vacant Senate seat.

On Wednesday, Nayak was in handcuffs, arrested by the FBI at his Oak Brook home on charges that he paid hundreds of thousands of dollars in kickbacks to doctors so they would refer patients to his surgical centers.

He appeared in court looking a bit disheveled and weary after he was greeted by agents at his home at 7 a.m. U.S. Magistrate Judge Maria Valdez ordered Nayak released on a $10 million bond thatÂ’s secured by six properties he owns.

Posted by: Foghorn J. Leghorn at June 20, 2012 11:19 PM (e8kgV)

103 I'm willing to help out with Nevada. I'll be obsessively following everything going on there anyway

Posted by: The Political Hat (@ThePoliticalHat) at June 20, 2012 11:24 PM (KLP9f)

104 The Republicans will not have to invest any resources in Arizona or Indiana and the Democrats will not have to invest a penny in Massachusetts or Maine at the Presidential level. House, Senate, and state legislative seats might be a different matter. The only way Republicans win in Maine at the state level is when there is a 3rd party taking a third of the vote so I doubt a single one of its EC college votes will go Republican.

Posted by: Sean at June 21, 2012 12:09 AM (5g9ji)

105 Looks a Red win to me. But things can do and often change, keep vigilant! No worries though, if the Scoamf keeps avoiding the economy we get to see Obama Lite...aka Romney. A better turd IMO, but not much better.

Posted by: Judge Roy Bean at June 21, 2012 12:11 AM (6awjq)

106 There is no way AZ is not solid red

Posted by: Red Mosquito at June 21, 2012 12:24 AM (jo0fs)

107 Oh BTW, Im in China now. I got the Chinese vote sowed up for us Red Boys. If any blue boys want to complain..you gave almost 1 million illegals a free pass. China peeps? If I had my my way they would be voting for Romney in contrast to illegals voting DEM.

Posted by: Judge Roy Bean at June 21, 2012 12:36 AM (6awjq)

108 cj - I thought you might be in St. Joe. NWMS by chance? Anyway, we're probably gonna play there in the next 3 or 4 months. Maybe sooner. Actually gonna play a private thing there Monday night. For some teachers I think.

Posted by: teej has your back Dags at June 21, 2012 01:33 AM (RM1gx)

109 NV, AZ, and NM used to be solid red as far as what this map is meant to reflect, but due to the outflow of liberal Californios and the growth of unions in the SW that is no longer true.

In fact I think NV and NM are now "leans Democrat" States and AZ is virtually a tossup.

MA and CT? Solid Blue and not a chance in hell they will go Republican even in a wave election which I think this will be.

But all of this is subject to change. It is still very early to be delving into polls too closely. A month after the Republican convention is the time to look at polls.

Posted by: Vic at June 21, 2012 01:50 AM (YdQQY)

110 Morning Morons, welcome to the first day of the year that will be shorter than the previous day - yesterday being the Summer Solstice. Joe Scarborough showing his RINO stripes this morning, indignant that the GOP thinks Fast & Furious is a big deal.

Posted by: CoolCzech at June 21, 2012 02:17 AM (niZvt)

111 Joe Scarborough showing his RINO stripes this morning, indignant that the GOP thinks Fast & Furious is a big deal.

Posted by: CoolCzech at June 21, 2012 06:17 AM (niZvt)

I don't think he is a RINO because I don't think he is a Republican. I'll bet he voted for Obama in 2008.

Posted by: Vic at June 21, 2012 02:19 AM (YdQQY)

112 BTW, people still posting on the ONT.

Posted by: Vic at June 21, 2012 02:20 AM (YdQQY)

113 Even MSNBC admitting this morning that a Bloomberg poll suddenly showing Obama at 53% vs 40% for Romney is cracked...

Posted by: CoolCzech at June 21, 2012 02:21 AM (niZvt)

114 WE need a headline thread for Vic!

Posted by: Underground Vulgarian at June 21, 2012 02:46 AM (oipCQ)

115 News up

Posted by: Vic at June 21, 2012 02:56 AM (YdQQY)

116 my apologies about Virginia. I am humiliated that we are not solid red. Especially considering who is running

Posted by: kelley in virginia at June 21, 2012 03:09 AM (p3a8+)

117 Don't you be dissin' my main man Holder

http://is.gd/MbsCy0

Posted by: Cynthia Bugeye at June 21, 2012 03:27 AM (YdQQY)

118 oops wrong thread

Posted by: Cynthia Bugeye at June 21, 2012 03:27 AM (YdQQY)

119 Amazing how the states suffering most under Democrat governance are the states that will never vote Republican.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at June 21, 2012 03:32 AM (hlUJY)

120

Just paroozed the ONT and would just like to say the John McCain is a studdering cluster fuck of a miserable big government Rino failure. I would like to piss on his leg and fart in his general direction.

***

Morn' Ya'll Rons

Posted by: dananjcon at June 21, 2012 04:43 AM (eavT+)

121

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at June 21, 2012 07:32 AM (hlUJY)

***

Unfortunately the suffering citizens relocate to red states and begin to pollute the political environment there...Cali exodus to AZ and CO, NY/NJ movement to NC/SC/FL...it even happens on a local level such as Philadelphia refugees populating the collar counties and turning them blue or at least purple. That's why lib/dem policies are a cancer that have no choice but to metastasize and why the only method that works is the Scott Walker treatment.

Posted by: kallisto at June 21, 2012 05:12 AM (jm/9g)

122 After the last 16 months, it's strange to look at a map of something other than Wisconsin - let alone a map that doesn't even have Wisconsin on it.

Posted by: Killface at June 21, 2012 05:22 AM (BDd0G)

123 Humiliating to be embedded in that solid blue thing on the left.

Posted by: JEM at June 20, 2012 10:31 PM (o+SC1)

I hear ya.

Posted by: red sweater, resident of a solid blue thing on the right at June 21, 2012 05:34 AM (Xwgt3)

124 "After the last 16 months, it's strange to look at a map of something other than Wisconsin - let alone a map that doesn't even have Wisconsin on it." Yep, after the new Marquette University poll out yesterday, WI should be solid blue.

Posted by: Greg at June 21, 2012 05:37 AM (j+Xk7)

125 Yep, after the new Marquette University poll out yesterday, WI should be solid blue.

Posted by: Greg at June 21, 2012 09:37 AM (j+Xk7)
--------------------

Haven't you eaten enough shit sandwiches regarding Wisconsin politics for one year?

Posted by: Killface at June 21, 2012 06:17 AM (BDd0G)

126 The MU poll had the recall nailed. Why do you doubt their findings on Obama vs Romney?

Posted by: Greg at June 21, 2012 06:20 AM (j+Xk7)

127 I have no doubt that Vermont will remain a solid blue. We are a very progressive state except for those right-wing hate-filled warmongers at Norwich. We all love our President.

You should love our President too.

Posted by: Mary Cloggenstein from Brattleboro, VT at June 21, 2012 06:49 AM (Z2iIN)

128 This map is simply too small to be believed.

Posted by: jwest at June 21, 2012 06:56 AM (ZDsRL)

129

CAC,

In order to figure out what states are in play, which publicly available polls are to be believed and to give us an insight into what the campaigns internal polls are saying, we could use a weekly update on where the campaigns are spending their ad dollars.

If you have that in your vast database, figure out a way to overlay the information on to some massive map for easy viewing.

Posted by: jwest at June 21, 2012 07:02 AM (ZDsRL)

130 The public is just too damn stupid to realize how bloody complex (& necessary) my plans are ::: http://tinyurl.com/7ss7aew

Posted by: I have the President's back at June 21, 2012 07:12 AM (4eNxd)

131 @21 Arizona, Indiana, North Carolina and Missouri are voting for Romney, unless Mongol hordes appear from a time-warp and kill all their Republicans.

Nope, that would go very bad for the Mongol hordes. I can't imagine good Republicans from either of those states not having the full benefit of superior firepower granted by our blessed 2nd amendment.

Now if the Mongol's attacked liberals...

Posted by: Mitt Romney at June 21, 2012 07:13 AM (vAXkP)

132 "Presidential Race Forecast"
-----------------------------
Why does everything have to be about race?

Posted by: edj at June 21, 2012 07:54 AM (+QKfp)

133 "The MU poll had the recall nailed. Why do you doubt their findings on Obama vs Romney?"
--------------------------------------------------

Because we're 5 months out, that's why. Just 1 month before the election MU polled walker with a 48-47 lead. They had earlier polls with Barrett ahead. Why on earth would I trust them 5 months out to be on the money? Why would you? Oh wait, you did.

Other than 2008 Wisconsin has always been razor-thin. If you think Obama is going to be able to ride in on his skittle-shitting unicorn and blow the same hopey changey tripe up everyone's asses this year, you're nuts.

Posted by: Killface at June 21, 2012 08:14 AM (BDd0G)

134 Don't have twitter, but will get it if I have to. But if you need updates from South East Texas, I can help. I will be my precinct's judge, but after I turn in my ballot box I can get results for my county and try and get to Harris county (houston)'s returns, too.

Posted by: SouthCounty at June 21, 2012 08:50 AM (49yng)

135 I'm in Nevada, but we get the Salt Lake City UT channels on TV. I can help with UT, and can do NV by checking websites for the NV TV stations. Let me know.

Posted by: aj4coco at June 21, 2012 09:35 AM (ACHlg)

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