Ace of Spades HQ

June 22, 2012

#AOSHQDD : Interim Presidential Race Forecast, Part Three
— CAC

Post-Wisconsin I've been working with JohnE on expanding the Decision Desk to 50-state coverage. In the meantime, I've kept my eye on polling data and will continue to reveal the current projection of the Presidential race.

Today, we introduce the favored states, those which will go to their respective party unless the "leaning" states begin to cascade in one direction or the other.

With this category added, Romney leads 206 to Obama's 194 electoral votes, as Romney gains no states but Obama gains Washington, Minnesota, and Maine. How do the remaining states fall? The swing states (leaners and tossups) will be pinned down in the final thread.

Map below the fold.

Dark red/blue states are the solids we showed in the kickoff thread, bright red/blue states are the likely, and cerulean blue /bright pink are the "favored" states introduced in this thread and map.

Like in the previous threads, if you are available to cover on election night in November (as part of an expanded project a la what we did with Wisconsin), contact me via ~~twitter~~ email, as it would be easier to keep addys around: theoneandonlyfinn at gmail.com. Mention your state. Also if you volunteered in the last thread shoot me a message to get the list growing. If you live in a solid/likely state, you can still contribute with senate or house races, but you will probably be assigned counties in the closest swing state to you to help report.

Posted by: CAC at 01:51 PM | Comments (61)
Post contains 259 words, total size 2 kb.

1 Great map CAC, thanks for all the hard work

Posted by: Velvet Ambition at June 22, 2012 01:33 PM (mFxQX)

2 I really feel like if there's ever an election where the GOP wins without Ohio, this might be it. It seems to still be trending a bit blue, but it may not be needed to reach 270. Then again, I could just be blowing smoke.

Posted by: T at June 22, 2012 01:36 PM (D3kCG)

3 Look at the Drudge links about Obama asking supporters to forgo wedding and birthday gifts and get their friends to donate to his campaign instead. Incredible.

Posted by: Dang at June 22, 2012 01:55 PM (Ky1+e)

4 Black for definite Obama. I see what you did there.

Racist.

Posted by: Cicero at June 22, 2012 01:55 PM (QKKT0)

5 Look at the Drudge links about Obama asking supporters to forgo wedding and birthday gifts and get their friends to donate to his campaign instead. Incredible.

Twitter has a fun little hashtag in progress on this. http://tinyurl.com/84mdw3c

Posted by: Cicero at June 22, 2012 01:56 PM (QKKT0)

4-1/2 months until the election.

7 months until the regime is thrown out.

ABO 2012

Posted by: rd at June 22, 2012 01:58 PM (9sUlj)

7
One suggestion, brother. You really need a legend which tells what each color means. We ARE morons, after all.

Oh, just to reiterate my long-standing request: Plaid Maps.

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at June 22, 2012 02:01 PM (xRwTE)

8 5 Look at the Drudge links about Obama asking supporters to forgo wedding and birthday gifts and get their friends to donate to his campaign instead. Incredible. Twitter has a fun little hashtag in progress on this. http://tinyurl.com/84mdw3c Maybe he should ask his supporters to mail in their food stamps, too?

Posted by: CoolCzech at June 22, 2012 02:02 PM (niZvt)

9 "Twitter has a fun little hashtag in progress on this."

As usual, IowaHawk is lapping the competition.

Posted by: slug at June 22, 2012 02:02 PM (vVv3V)

10 Cerulean?

Posted by: Elizabethe from elsewhere at June 22, 2012 02:03 PM (T03Ll)

11 This will be a 45 State blowout if Barky keeps it up and Romney doesn't step on his crank.

Posted by: Barky O'Ceaser I Chief law enforcement officer at June 22, 2012 02:04 PM (YdQQY)

12 45 states for Romney, 12 states for Obama?

Posted by: AndrewsDad at June 22, 2012 02:05 PM (C2//T)

13 Jk it's a great map.

Posted by: Elizabethe from elsewhere at June 22, 2012 02:05 PM (T03Ll)

14 Into the White

Posted by: The Pixies at June 22, 2012 02:06 PM (CYKf3)

15 OT: yeah it's early, but it's Friday night. I was in a Nam music mood, so listened to Grace Slick singing White Rabbit at Woodstock. That girl could sing. That is all.

Posted by: pep at June 22, 2012 02:07 PM (6TB1Z)

16 Florida should be light red.

Posted by: the nose knows at June 22, 2012 02:08 PM (Dll6b)

17 So what, your still stuck with mittens and the puppy, what else? You got the puppy being served up again tonight on Hannity. Man foxy is sure serving up the puppy, like a Phillipino banquet featuring fresh young puppy.

Posted by: Clemenza at June 22, 2012 02:09 PM (qA9lG)

18 I'm begining to think CAC is off the boobs.

Posted by: garrett at June 22, 2012 02:09 PM (2kvw5)

19 We need to rally a NOVA team, monitoring the turn-out line will be fun.

Posted by: Jean, team dagny at June 22, 2012 02:11 PM (WkuV6)

20 sock off too late crap

Posted by: Vic at June 22, 2012 02:12 PM (YdQQY)

21 http://tinyurl.com/8265g6j [PIC] How can Obama lose with people like this supporting Obamacare?

Posted by: The Huggable Robot Devil at June 22, 2012 02:14 PM (GkwjL)

22 This is Awesomely Hilarious:

<blockquote>NALEO host tells attendees they need to hurry up and eat because their forks will be taken away before Obama takes the stage.</blockquote>

https://twitter.com/elisefoley/status/216201497371873281

Posted by: Feynmangroupie at June 22, 2012 02:15 PM (oI744)

23 If I see a giant ball sack, I'm leaving.

Can we all agree that Jeb Bush should form his own party of STFU and stop the sniping from the sidelines?

Jeb, take a cue from you brother and even your father; once they left office, THEY LEFT OFFICE.

You apparently still think we care about what you have to say.

NO.

Posted by: Bitter Clinger and all that at June 22, 2012 02:15 PM (CP+yl)

24 Can we all agree that Jeb Bush should form his own party of STFU and stop the sniping from the sidelines? Posted by: Bitter Clinger and all that at June 22, 2012 06:15 PM (CP+yl) Jeb - the Meghan McCain of the Bush family

Posted by: The Huggable Robot Devil at June 22, 2012 02:17 PM (GkwjL)

25 Don't overlook the possibility that Romney could take the electoral voter from Maine's Second District. Maine splits its electoral vote.

Posted by: PersonFromPorlock at June 22, 2012 02:17 PM (2VCZA)

26 Spare me, Obumbles takes NV, WA easy, PA probably. Also VA because Northern Virginia is now soviet. America becomes new soviet Lativa Jan. 2012. Flyover country succeeds Feb., 2012. Northeast and left coast doesn't notice until they notice that no one is paying taxes.

Posted by: Bob from Virginia at June 22, 2012 02:18 PM (SBjsJ)

I don't get it. Are some of the states vanishing? I really did want to visit Gettysburg some time in my life. Oh well.

Posted by: Soona at June 22, 2012 02:18 PM (xZSH6)

28 Flyover country succeeds Feb., 2012.

Erm.....

Posted by: pep at June 22, 2012 02:20 PM (6TB1Z)

29 I think CAC deserves an award for all his hard work. Ace doesn't give out awards? How about a free lifetime membership to AOSHQ?

Posted by: Joffen, fucking sunshine patriot at June 22, 2012 02:20 PM (qsz6h)

30 http://tinyurl.com/6myv9wp [PIC] Ta-tas - NSFW

Posted by: The Huggable Robot Devil at June 22, 2012 02:20 PM (GkwjL)

31 @30She has spectacular funbags, but her waistline starts at her sternum.

Posted by: pep at June 22, 2012 02:22 PM (6TB1Z)

32 Bob are in NOVA? Because the local Dims aren't confident they can get close to the '08 turn-out, and they know it isn't happening in the Tidewater or Richmond. Charlottesville will probably be similiar to '08. If they don't exceed '08 (to account for downstate unemployed african americans staying home) -- VA returns to red.

Posted by: Jean, team dagny at June 22, 2012 02:22 PM (WkuV6)

33 29 I think CAC deserves an award for all his hard work. Ace doesn't give out awards? How about a free lifetime membership to AOSHQ? Posted by: Joffen, fucking sunshine patriot at June 22, 2012 06:20 PM (qsz6h) Plus a free twitter feed from AoSHQ

Posted by: The Huggable Robot Devil at June 22, 2012 02:23 PM (GkwjL)

4-1/2 months until the election.
7 months until the regime is thrown out.

ABO 2012

Posted by: rd at June 22, 2012 05:58 PM (9sUlj)

I think I heard angels sing when I read that.

Posted by: ErikW at June 22, 2012 02:24 PM (SKdo3)

35 26
Uh, Nevada has the highest unemployment in the country and a 23% Mormon population.
Virginia elected McDonnell by 17 points
It doesn't matter if we don't win Pa. The Obama campaign will have to pour millions into defending. Considering that we are going to be able to outspend the Dems this election, having to waste any resources here hurts Obama.

Posted by: Sean at June 22, 2012 02:24 PM (Zb2v+)

36 Hey which is proper usage? "it will go further." or "it will go farther."

Posted by: Sean Langan at June 22, 2012 02:24 PM (qF3P2)

37 31 @30She has spectacular funbags, but her waistline starts at her sternum. Posted by: pep at June 22, 2012 06:22 PM (6TB1Z) http://tinyurl.com/6lo9b8f [PIC] what about these? Again - NSFW

Posted by: The Huggable Robot Devil at June 22, 2012 02:24 PM (GkwjL)

38 Sorry to go OT, but I am so sad. Went to the store to get some beer. On the way in the house the damn bag broke. A whole six pack of Sam Adams...deceased. Thank god the Kirin survived...sniff....sob

Posted by: Ma Bell at June 22, 2012 02:25 PM (uVuwp)

39 but her waistline starts at her sternum.

Posted by: pep at June 22, 2012 06:22 PM (6TB1Z)

----------------------------------------

Which might mean she has endlessly long legs. Bit tits + Long Legs = Playtime.

Posted by: Soona at June 22, 2012 02:25 PM (xZSH6)

40 30 Megaton McCain?

Posted by: Preznit Training Pants at June 22, 2012 02:26 PM (jucos)

I think CAC deserves an award for all his hard work. Ace doesn't give out awards? How about a free lifetime membership to AOSHQ?

Posted by: Joffen, fucking sunshine patriot at June 22, 2012 06:20 PM (qsz6h)

I don't what CAC's fave genre is but how about Van Gogh's self portrait with flaming hair?

Yeah, I kinda phoned that one in.

Posted by: ErikW at June 22, 2012 02:27 PM (SKdo3)

I don't KNOW what.

I swear I typed that.

Damned ghost editor.

Posted by: ErikW at June 22, 2012 02:28 PM (SKdo3)

43 38 Sorry to go OT, but I am so sad. Went to the store to get some beer. On the way in the house the damn bag broke. A whole six pack of Sam Adams...deceased. Thank god the Kirin survived...sniff....sob Posted by: Ma Bell at June 22, 2012 06:25 PM (uVuwp) Uhm, that's what they make straws for...

Posted by: The Huggable Robot Devil at June 22, 2012 02:29 PM (GkwjL)

44 New thread up sorry CAC.

Posted by: Vic at June 22, 2012 02:32 PM (YdQQY)

45 38, happy ants

Posted by: Jean, team dagny at June 22, 2012 02:32 PM (WkuV6)

46 43 38 Sorry to go OT, but I am so sad. Went to the store to get some beer. On the way in the house the damn bag broke. A whole six pack of Sam Adams...deceased. Thank god the Kirin survived...sniff....sob
Posted by: Ma Bell at June 22, 2012 06:25 PM (uVuwp)

Uhm, that's what they make straws for...

Posted by: The Huggable Robot Devil at June 22, 2012 06:29 PM (GkwjL)

No SHAMWOW?, like you never spilled it

Posted by: Red Shirt at June 22, 2012 02:32 PM (FIDMq)

47 Cerulean Blue is like a summer breeze....

Posted by: Roger Patrick Modell (Pusher) at June 22, 2012 02:35 PM (XMpDj)

48 NBC Nightly News leads with a feature on gas down to $3.00 in sixteen states, in that emotive, breathless, barely contained, desperately excited tone that they sometimes can't help.

Posted by: BuddyPC at June 22, 2012 02:36 PM (KCuY9)

49 Great map. Just wish I had some hope for Colorado.

Posted by: Infidel at June 22, 2012 02:37 PM (O/fK8)

50 I know there aren't a lot of Blacks in NH, but no way is it THAT white! I'd guess we should be light red, politically, as a state.

Posted by: Live Free Or Die at June 22, 2012 02:39 PM (XMpDj)

51
CAC:

I recommended this base map for you on an earlier thread:

http://www.flashusamap.com/

Pro's: Cheap ($60 with a money back guarantee), easily edited (e.g. colors), data can be imbedded in each state and the data pops out as state is scrolled over. Other stuff, too.

Con's: Requires flash.

Give it some consideration.

Posted by: The Pixels at June 22, 2012 02:40 PM (7+pP9)

52 Death to Flash

Posted by: Ming the Merciless at June 22, 2012 02:48 PM (jts1f)

53 Man, what happened to my wang??

Posted by: US of A at June 22, 2012 02:49 PM (GOmR6)

54 Here's what's going to happen: http://is.gd/ZdMLGd As Magic Slim (of Magic Slim and the Teardrops) used to say, "Gonna be a mess, I tell ya."

Posted by: notropis at June 22, 2012 02:51 PM (cjcCc)

55 Jeb Bush gets it!

Posted by: Meghan McCain at June 22, 2012 02:56 PM (MBmtt)

56 Further.

Posted by: LobarPendulum at June 22, 2012 03:08 PM (G7mGM)

4Black for definite Obama. I see what you did there.

Looks navy from here.

Posted by: LobarPendulum at June 22, 2012 03:10 PM (G7mGM)

58 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at June 22, 2012 03:19 PM (Ts9tU)

59 Death to Flash

Posted by: Ming the Merciless at June 22, 2012 06:48 PM (jts1f)

Pansy-assed Hot Hail ain't shit.

Posted by: SMOD at June 22, 2012 03:20 PM (xRwTE)

60 Well done with this map. It irks me to no end to see these other electoral projections showing Obama basically locking up the Rust Belt despite either a total lack of polling evidence or polling evidence running contrary to that.

Ex: Michigan being considered Obama country even though the three most recent polls on it show Obama +1, Romney +1, and tied.

I do think it's a bit optimistic to have Oregon as a "tossup" at this point and Massachusetts being anything but solid Obama, but its a vast improvement from these wishful thinking-fueled maps from other outlets showing Obama being nothing but a Florida win away from a second term.

Posted by: Luke at June 22, 2012 03:58 PM (cACud)

61 Oh, just to reiterate my long-standing request: Plaid Maps. Posted by: IllTemperedCur at June 22, 2012 06:01 PM (xRwTE) Ludicrous speed, GO!!!

Posted by: Darth Helmet at June 22, 2012 05:09 PM (XvHmy)

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