Ace of Spades HQ

July 19, 2012

AOSHQDD July 2012 Presidential Projection
— CAC

Bad News: Obama's constant screaming has pulled two states out from under Romney back into toss-up status.

Good News: Obama's constant screaming and whining has apparently cost him a considerable pile of states as well:

If this is the best Obama can achieve with mostly unanswered negative ads and with Romney holding back the warchest... August, September and October are going to be quite fun. Especially once Pennsylvania starts turning pink...

Posted by: CAC at 02:27 PM | Comments (130)
Post contains 81 words, total size 1 kb.

1 This map isn't wide enough.

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ trapped at the office with no beer at July 19, 2012 02:28 PM (ZKzrr)

2 Second!

Posted by: JDTAY at July 19, 2012 02:29 PM (a0nis)

3 What the hell is wrong with Colorado and New Mexico?

Posted by: AndrewsDad at July 19, 2012 02:29 PM (C2//T)

4 Glad to see NC coming to its senses, BTW. I don't know what it was on last election.

Posted by: JDTAY at July 19, 2012 02:30 PM (a0nis)

5 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at July 19, 2012 02:30 PM (6o4Fb)

6 Let's face it - the only ones stupid enough to vote for Obama this time are either: Communists Welfare hos Crony Obama Capitalists The mentally ill

Posted by: izoneguy at July 19, 2012 02:30 PM (hbRed)

What about Mexico?

I think Barky has probably got the Mexican Vote now.....since he's giving them food stamps too.

Posted by: wheatie at July 19, 2012 02:31 PM (MbB0O)

Teh SCOAMF is gonna be down here bleating at a local kollidge tomorrow. Don't know if anyone is going to protest there, but if there is, I'd go.

brb...

Posted by: BackwardsBoy at July 19, 2012 02:31 PM (d0Tfm)

9 @6 Sadly that's still gonna be at least 46% popular vote.

Posted by: JDTAY at July 19, 2012 02:31 PM (a0nis)

10 OM NOM NOM

Posted by: Truman North, iPhone snob at July 19, 2012 02:33 PM (2BJuW)

11 I can't imagine why anyone would vote Democrat. Ignorance is no longer an excuse.

Posted by: BeckoningChasm at July 19, 2012 02:34 PM (DuH+r)

12 Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable tyrant.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at July 19, 2012 02:34 PM (nUH8H)

13 Sorry, but there is no way in hell VA is a toss-up. It will go Romney by 5% or more.

Posted by: Kasper Hauser at July 19, 2012 02:35 PM (HqpV0)

14 It's nice to see Massachusetts so light in color. Who would have ever thought it would be anything but deep blue? Except for those of us in th ground here. It's clearly a GoP year here despite their own incompetence.

Posted by: Truman North, iPhone snob at July 19, 2012 02:35 PM (2BJuW)

15 "Keeping" a Republic a Republic is hard work, as Ben Franklin knew!

Posted by: Hrothgar (CJSC Designated Serf) at July 19, 2012 02:36 PM (Cnqmv)

16 And again, I have been predictIng 40 states for Romney.

Posted by: Truman North, iPhone snob at July 19, 2012 02:37 PM (2BJuW)

17 We should give New Mexico back to Olde Mexico. And throw in California as punishment.

Posted by: Dr Spank at July 19, 2012 02:37 PM (bb5Xq)

18 Nevada blue? Really?

Posted by: the pink cracker formerly known as the hobbit Donna at July 19, 2012 02:37 PM (ZHge+)

19 >>I can't imagine why anyone would vote Democrat.

I can: it's easier than working.

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ trapped at the office with no beer at July 19, 2012 02:38 PM (ZKzrr)

20 but Penn is pink NOW.

Posted by: Oldcat at July 19, 2012 02:39 PM (z1N6a)

21 @18 After the Secret Service scandal they figure the Democrats are the most prostitution-friendly party.

Posted by: JDTAY at July 19, 2012 02:39 PM (a0nis)

22 I firmly believe that we here in the Hoosier state will bring Indiana back to the correct column.

Posted by: Madamemayhem at July 19, 2012 02:40 PM (iRgZG)

23 WTF? I've been to Illinois too many times to count, and the people there are seemingly normal, - unlike California.

Posted by: Fritz at July 19, 2012 02:40 PM (0ZJ5N)

24 Can we just kick California off the continent? Please?

Posted by: Darth Chipmunk at July 19, 2012 02:41 PM (niW49)

25 WTF? I've been to Illinois too many times to count, and the people there are seemingly normal, - unlike California.

Posted by: Fritz at July 19, 2012 06:40 PM (0ZJ5N)

If they did it by county, there would be blue dots surrounded by red in both states.

Posted by: Oldcat at July 19, 2012 02:41 PM (z1N6a)

26 What the hell is wrong with Colorado and New Mexico? Posted by: AndrewsDad at July 19, 2012 06:29 PM

In the case of NM, it's a backward shithole that has only two areas where people work and produce, the northwest and southeast corners. In the case of Colorado, it's Californians.

Posted by: huerfano at July 19, 2012 02:42 PM (bAGA/)

27 The thing about this kind of exercise is, it's all based on public polls. All the analysis you do to arrive at these numbers are still based on utter gargbage, put out by the same people who are trying to convince you that AGW exists, is a bad thing, and requires you to sacrifIce everything at the point of a gun to fix. Which is no knock on CAC, whose work I trust at least as much as any pollster.

Posted by: Truman North, iPhone snob at July 19, 2012 02:42 PM (2BJuW)

28 Yeah, Chicago is more than enough crazy for one state.

Posted by: JDTAY at July 19, 2012 02:42 PM (a0nis)

29 This map is defective.

There's a distinct shortage of plaid.

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at July 19, 2012 02:43 PM (TIIx5)

30 The recent Nevada Senate seat poll is kind of interesting, no? AFP/Magellan Strategies 665 Likely Voters Heller (Republican)-- 45% Berkley (Democrat) --42%

Posted by: tasker at July 19, 2012 02:44 PM (r2PLg)

31 The thing about this kind of exercise is, it's all based on public polls. All the analysis you do to arrive at these numbers are still based on utter gargbage, put out by the same people who are trying to convince you that AGW exists, is a bad thing, and requires you to sacrifIce everything at the point of a gun to fix.

Which is no knock on CAC, whose work I trust at least as much as any pollster.

Posted by: Truman North, iPhone snob at July 19, 2012 06:42 PM (2BJuW)

Right - look at Wisconsin, that just spat in the face of Obama and his Union Drones a little while ago, supposedly a pretty blue.

Posted by: Oldcat at July 19, 2012 02:44 PM (z1N6a)

32 OT See this aptly named chick from AP on Bret Bair?Katie Hunt.KHunt.

Posted by: steevy at July 19, 2012 02:45 PM (6o4Fb)

33 I can't imagine why anyone would vote Democrat.

I can: it's easier than working.

Posted by: HeatherRadishÂ™ trapped at the office with no beer at July 19, 2012 06:38 PM (ZKzrr)

-----------------------------------------------------

If the SCOAMT wins again, I'm quiting my job, collecting my severence, going on SS. There won't be any reason to work anymore. America will die.

Posted by: Soona at July 19, 2012 02:46 PM (CE/55)

34 Romney really needs to devote a lot of that war chest to not losing NYS and California by too much, otherwise he'll win but it won't be bipartisan. Bipartisan is more important than winning

Posted by: mallfly at July 19, 2012 02:46 PM (bJm7W)

35 My Vermont is still a beautiful dark blue on this map.

We got some rain today. It watered the twenty-foot round "O" logo those of us in the Democratic Womens' Garden Club made on the town square out of red, white, and blue carnations.

Posted by: Mary Cloggenstein from Brattleboro, VT at July 19, 2012 02:46 PM (x3vvv)

36 And again, I have been predictIng 40 states for Romney.

Posted by: Truman North, iPhone snob at July 19, 2012 06:37 PM (2BJuW)

This 271-269 stuff is not historically likely or common. Yet it is now supposedly the new normal.

Posted by: Oldcat at July 19, 2012 02:47 PM (z1N6a)

37 Let's not start polishing our kn... awww heck, forget it!

Posted by: Fred Willard at July 19, 2012 02:47 PM (5H6zj)

38 Only twenty feet of flower logo? Why do you insufficiently love Ear Leader?

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ trapped at the office with no beer at July 19, 2012 02:48 PM (ZKzrr)

39 My Vermont is still a beautiful dark blue on this map. Ya--just like the Schnapps you've been guzzling.

Posted by: tasker at July 19, 2012 02:48 PM (r2PLg)

40 penn is light red. baracky needs a blow out in allegheny cty. he ain't getting it.

Posted by: newrouter at July 19, 2012 02:49 PM (kfeRL)

41 I don't believe for a second that Florida is a toss up.

Posted by: maddogg at July 19, 2012 02:49 PM (OlN4e)

42 #obamakidsbooks

Clifford the Big Delicious Dog

Posted by: Albie Damned at July 19, 2012 02:49 PM (Yhu4q)

43 Missouri is solid. Obama lost here in 2008, back when he was Jesus. He's been shown to be a SCOAMT since then.

And McCaskill's out, even if the GOP runs a ham sandwich against her.

Posted by: Palandine at July 19, 2012 02:50 PM (g7D8V)

44 red white and blue carnations.

Sounds kind of exclusionary. Why no yellow or black carnations?

Posted by: Oldcat at July 19, 2012 02:50 PM (z1N6a)

45 Sorry, I only count 50 states there. You're missing at least 7 states.

Posted by: Barky the Magnificent of Oration at July 19, 2012 02:50 PM (kSaUf)

46 Phillips Blue Schnapps 100 Proof

Posted by: tasker at July 19, 2012 02:50 PM (r2PLg)

47 Also, Romney should agree that all the debates be hosted by Katie Couric and George Stephanopolous. This will insure that the debates are fair and evenhanded.

Posted by: mallfly at July 19, 2012 02:50 PM (bJm7W)

48 I could have sworn there was just a new Nanzi Pelosi post. Must be hallucinatin'

Posted by: Cicero at July 19, 2012 02:51 PM (QKKT0)

49 At least its a start.CUT IT ALL. (Politico) Â— The House agreed to a $650 million cut from Pakistan military aid Wednesday night as Republicans sought to tamp down demands for still deeper reductions because of conservative anger at the Islamabad government. Rep. Ted Poe (R-Texas) first came to the floor demanding a $1.3 billion cut and initially won the endorsement of Rep. Bill Young (R-Fla.), who was managing the defense bill on the floor. But ultimately a cut of $650 million was settled upon with the intention of reducing PakistanÂ’s funds by half. Rep. Norman Dicks (D-Wash.), the ranking Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, appeared to agree to the compromise, since it was approved by a voice vote. And the end result is to conform with prior cuts agreed to this spring as part of a defense authorization bill. Nonetheless, the fresh cut follows on Secretary of State Hillary ClintonÂ’s recent efforts to bridge the gap with Pakistan. And the combination of PoeÂ’s inflammatory rhetoric and YoungÂ’s cheerful endorsement was not a reassuring for the Obama administration as it tries to rebuild relations. Â“It is time for a new strategy with Pakistan,Â” said Poe, who described Pakistan as a Â“Benedict ArnoldÂ” nation. Â“More money is not going to solve the problem. Â… Pakistan is playing America.Â”

Posted by: steevy at July 19, 2012 02:52 PM (6o4Fb)

50 Ya I saw that--and I haven't even been inhaling the Cloggenstein.

Posted by: tasker at July 19, 2012 02:52 PM (r2PLg)

51 re 38: Heather, was "Ear Leader" a typo or are you just glad to see me?

Posted by: mallfly at July 19, 2012 02:52 PM (bJm7W)

52 So, MI is a toss-up but WI still leans to the JEF?

But, the JEF assured us that TX would be a swing state soon.

I'm not sure if he meant country-western swing or swing politically.

Posted by: RoyalOil at July 19, 2012 02:53 PM (kSaUf)

53 It's gonna be Rubio for VP, He's gonna need FL

Posted by: cajun carrot at July 19, 2012 02:53 PM (uG50m)

54 I still think that, for this election, polls are nothing but hype and newsroom-ratings fodder. First off, there's too many polling firms competing with each other, and second, so many of them have weighted their results so heavily in the dem direction that none of them are believable anymore.

Posted by: Soona at July 19, 2012 02:53 PM (CE/55)

In CO, it's the massive influx of Californians fleeing their failed-fucking state but voting for the same shit that brough CA to its knees in the first place.

Posted by: ATaLien at July 19, 2012 02:53 PM (2p0vz)

Most of the local pundits down here are saying that the I-4 corridor is where the election will be won or lost (Daytona to Tampa). I can't really argue with that, north FL is pretty red, south is pretty blue. The biggest thing I see is 2010 that saw Col. West, Rubio, Scott, Webster (replaced the Idiot Alan Grayson) and a lot of local Pubbies gain seats.

This gives me hope that FL is going for Mitt. An awful lot of my friends who stupidly voted for teh SCOAMF are saying they won't this time. Damn, it's nice when people wake up.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy at July 19, 2012 02:54 PM (d0Tfm)

57 Getting fair moderators in debates is harder than you think.

Posted by: Truman North, iPhone snob at July 19, 2012 02:54 PM (2BJuW)

58 getting fair moderators in the debates will mean Obama will stay home.

Posted by: mallfly at July 19, 2012 02:55 PM (bJm7W)

I could have sworn there was just a new Nanzi Pelosi post. Must be hallucinatin'<<<<

CAC bumped Ace's ass like a fat girl full of GHB-flavored Boone's Farm on prom night.

Posted by: Empire of Jeff at July 19, 2012 02:55 PM (MmK+i)

60 But, the JEF assured us that TX would be a swing state soon. Operation Food Stamps--Get'em at your polling booth!

Posted by: Axelrod at July 19, 2012 02:55 PM (r2PLg)

61 Quoting: "Let's face it - the only ones stupid enough to vote for Obama this time are either:
Communists
Welfare hos
Crony Obama Capitalists
The mentally ill"

Don't for get us! ~ Signed, the dead, multi-voters, cartoon characters, "undocumented" workers and non-existent people.

Posted by: Mr_Write at July 19, 2012 02:56 PM (VJUQK)

62 I could have sworn there was just a new Nanzi Pelosi post. Must be hallucinatin'

The time machine ran out of laser power.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD 2012 at July 19, 2012 02:56 PM (Gk3SS)

63
Meanwhile, New York City unemployment rate is back up to 10 percent.

http://tinyurl.com/7d6t6w4

Posted by: YIKES! at July 19, 2012 02:56 PM (0xil9)

64 I still think that, for this election, polls are nothing but hype and newsroom-ratings fodder. First off, there's too many polling firms competing with each other, and second, so many of them have weighted their results so heavily in the dem direction that none of them are believable anymore.

Posted by: Soona at July 19, 2012 06:53 PM (CE/55)

Especially this early, they always try and push-poll for a while. Hence the "Adults" and "Registered" scams. That is always good for five to ten points the 'right' way.

And with the splits being based from 2008 numbers and ignoring 2010 as an aberration, this is especially absurd. Pollsters totally missed the 2010 wave and seems like they are apt to be doing it again.

Posted by: Oldcat at July 19, 2012 02:57 PM (z1N6a)

65 Sure. But what happens when Obama attacks Iran? 4 Carrier groups and an amphibious assault ship are to be in the gulf before the election.

Posted by: TrueNorthist at July 19, 2012 02:57 PM (3Aixx)

66 >>>Sorry, but there is no way in hell VA is a toss-up. It will go Romney by 5% or more.

Um, no.

I'm actually surprised that Romney's got a real solid chance to take VA, tell you the truth. I think he CAN win it in the fall, but I wouldn't rate it as anything better than a tossup (and really more of a slight lean-Dem), and have already constructed my winning scenarios for him around an anticipated loss of the state. (Most likely version: Romney easily bags the Obama states that seem solidly leaning R this year in FL/IN/NC, claws back the real tough swing states of IA, OH, CO, and then takes just ONE of the following: PA, MI, WI, NV, NH.)

People who don't live around here need to get over their previous understanding of Virginia as a solidly "red" state and the cradle of the Confederacy and all that bullshit. Obama's spending binge and commitment to expanding the size and power of the federal government has created a massive economic boom in Northern Virginia: it's pretty much the only place in the entire damn country outside of North Dakota's oil fields where the economic apocalypse of the past four years has barely been felt, because government's been a nonstop growth industry. People have been streaming into NoVA to take federal jobs, and they disproportionately vote Democratic because the Dems are the party of government (in other words, preserving their jobs). Meanwhile, the other demographics coming into NoVa are 1.) Marylanders fleeing that high-tax hellhole and bringing their liberal Montgomery County politics with them; 2.) Latino immigrants.

States change. Virginia is one of them. The state you knew for the last 50 years has already been irrevocably altered. It ain't coming back. VA isn't permanently blue or anything -- not yet, at least -- but it's hard sledding for the GOP in Presidential elections with someone like Obama at the top of the ticket in particular, because he also draws heavily upon the significant AA population in places like Hampton Roads, Richmond, and Newport News.

Posted by: Jeff B. at July 19, 2012 02:57 PM (SQO5y)

67 @54: that phenomenon has always been true, but it's only recently that many of us have caught on. Polling is pseudoscientific at best and a giant propaganda push at worst.

Posted by: Truman North, iPhone snob at July 19, 2012 02:58 PM (2BJuW)

68 Getting fair moderators in debates is harder than you think.

Posted by: Truman North, iPhone snob at July 19, 2012 06:54 PM (2BJuW)

Well duh, if you pick newsmen...you'd have better chances picking at random from the floor of the Democratic National Convention.

Posted by: Oldcat at July 19, 2012 02:58 PM (z1N6a)

69 I want to see how this map looks if we subtract out the artificial 5 point bump the JEF has enjoyed due to 60D-20R registration spit polls that have skewed the average.

Posted by: RoyalOil at July 19, 2012 02:59 PM (kSaUf)

70 60 But, the JEF assured us that TX would be a swing state soon. Operation Food Stamps--Get'em at your polling booth! Posted by: Axelrod at July 19, 2012 06:55 PM (r2PLg) What do you think his pushing the Mexican Food Stamp shit was all about?

Posted by: cajun carrot at July 19, 2012 03:00 PM (uG50m)

71 I want to see how this map looks if we subtract out the artificial 5 point bump the JEF has enjoyed due to 60D-20R registration spit polls that have skewed the average.

Posted by: RoyalOil at July 19, 2012 06:59 PM (kSaUf)

Shift everything red one color, probably is close.

Posted by: Oldcat at July 19, 2012 03:00 PM (z1N6a)

72 Quoting: "Sure. But what happens when Obama attacks Iran? 4 Carrier groups and an amphibious assault ship are to be in the gulf before the election."

Pure genius on Obama's part...looking hawkish while making it harder for the right-leaning military to vote.

Posted by: Mr_Write at July 19, 2012 03:00 PM (VJUQK)

73 What do you think his pushing the Mexican Food Stamp shit was all about?

Posted by: cajun carrot at July 19, 2012 07:00 PM (uG50m)

So he's expecting Democrats to be grateful? That's silly.

Posted by: Oldcat at July 19, 2012 03:01 PM (z1N6a)

74 Quoting: "Sure. But what happens when Obama attacks Iran? 4 Carrier groups and an
amphibious assault ship are to be in the gulf before the election."

Pure genius on Obama's part...looking hawkish while making it harder for the right-leaning military to vote.

Posted by: Mr_Write at July 19, 2012 07:00 PM (VJUQK)

Since he's always late, the attack orders will probably arrive on November 20th.

Posted by: Oldcat at July 19, 2012 03:02 PM (z1N6a)

75 I think to get a more accurate picture you need to take whatever the number is and add about four to Romney. GOTV will favor republicans right across the board.

Posted by: Truman North, iPhone snob at July 19, 2012 03:02 PM (2BJuW)

Well, I guess the VA poll question is settled then. JeffB has spoken.

Posted by: Soona at July 19, 2012 03:02 PM (CE/55)

77 Quoting: "Well duh, if you pick newsmen...you'd have better chances picking at random from the floor of the Democratic National Convention."

...you'd have better chances for true fairness picking some garbage off the floor of a movie theater.

Posted by: Mr_Write at July 19, 2012 03:03 PM (VJUQK)

78 I long for live fact checking at debates. And trap doors to be activated under liars. But then the debate wouldn't last very long...

Posted by: Justamom at July 19, 2012 03:05 PM (Sptt8)

79 Even in a GOP primary debate though. Anyone who's qualified to conduct the debate has already picked their favorite, whether they've declared it or not.

Posted by: Truman North, iPhone snob at July 19, 2012 03:05 PM (2BJuW)

80 So he's expecting Democrats to be grateful? That's silly. Posted by: Oldcat at July 19, 2012 07:01 PM (z1N6a) No, more freeloaders to cross the border to Texas.

Posted by: cajun carrot at July 19, 2012 03:08 PM (uG50m)

81 Quoting Justamom: "I long for live fact checking at debates.

And trap doors to be activated under liars.

But then the debate wouldn't last very long..."

I kinda favor the cartoon consequences approach to presidential debates...drop a large anvil on the head of the first guy that lies.

Hey...I can dream, can't I?!

Posted by: Mr_Write at July 19, 2012 03:08 PM (VJUQK)

82 >>re 38: Heather, was "Ear Leader" a typo or are you just glad to see me?

"Ear Leader" is a pun comparing SCOAMF to Kim Il Jong. I can't remember where I picked it up.

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ trapped at the office with no beer at July 19, 2012 03:09 PM (ZKzrr)

83 But what happens when Obama attacks Iran? Even his base should start asking, "WTF?"

Posted by: t-bird at July 19, 2012 03:10 PM (FcR7P)

84 83 But what happens when Obama attacks Iran? Even his base should start asking, "WTF?" Posted by: t-bird at July 19, 2012 07:10 PM (FcR7P) Nope, they'll let him get away with anything as long as the laundering continues.

Posted by: cajun carrot at July 19, 2012 03:12 PM (uG50m)

66 Jeff B, good points , but the recession is starting to bite even here in northern Virginia. The drop in defense spending - and the impending massive cuts- will hit the Beltway bandits hard.

Obama did pretty well in the other Virginia too. In October 2008 Obama radio ads on country stations featured a Ralph Stanley endorsement. I don't think many Ralph Stanley voters from 2008 will vote for Obama again.

Alexandria here, where are you?

Posted by: Jim in Virginia at July 19, 2012 03:14 PM (jiKVm)

86 CAC, you magnificent bastard!

Posted by: Mjölnir the Banhammer from Hell at July 19, 2012 03:14 PM (Jls4P)

87 >>>Well, I guess the VA poll question is settled then. JeffB has spoken.

Did you read anything I actually wrote?

No, clearly you did not. Because I said that yes, Romney has a real solid chance of winning VA in November. But it sure as hell isn't a given for the GOP. It's a tossup/slight-lean Dem, for the reasons I explained above: rapid, sweeping demographic change over the past 8 years plus 20% black population that is going to vote 97% for Obama.

My real point is how misguided it is for people to look at a state like VA and say "dude, no WAY does Obama win that, it'll vote for Romney by 5%+, it's a historically Red state, after all!" No. It WAS a historically 'red' state. So was Vermont, for that matter (never voted for a non-GOP President before 1992 and STILL has only ever sent one Democrat to the Senate -- that's how rock-ribbed Republican it used to be). Meanwhile Louisiana was a Democratic as it's possible for a state to be until the mid-90s.

States change. States trend towards and away from the parties. We've lost places like CA, VT, IL, and ME, and we're in the process of losing VA and CO, but we're seeing a vast swath of previously blue/blueish states in the midwest swing towards us (MI, WI, PA, MN, and IL have all moved hard toward the GOP on the Congressional level and are reachable for Mitt with the obvious exception of IL, while historical bellwether MO has become so solidly red it's not even being contest by Obama anymore) as if in an almost equal and opposite reaction.

Posted by: Jeff B. at July 19, 2012 03:15 PM (SQO5y)

....Shock collars.

I would love to see shock collars, in the debates.....tied to the 'live fact checking'.

That would be way more entertaining than trap doors or anvils.

We could watch them get zapped every time they lied.

Posted by: wheatie at July 19, 2012 03:16 PM (MbB0O)

89 Another fantasy of mine: Three general intelligence questions at the top of each ballot, to be answered correctly or ballot not counted. Such as, "What hemisphere do you live in?". JK. I would never want it to be turned around on me. I don't know any rap songs/artists.

Posted by: Justamom at July 19, 2012 03:16 PM (Sptt8)

90 Maybe the SCOAMT could raffle off pies for us to throw at him when he lies.

Posted by: Justamom at July 19, 2012 03:18 PM (Sptt8)

Yikes. Attempted kidnapping of 8 year old girl in Philadelphia. She said she knew how to get away from watching Law and Order Special Victims Unit.

Who lets their 8 year old kid watch SVU?

Posted by: Jim in Virginia at July 19, 2012 03:20 PM (jiKVm)

92 >>>Alexandria here, where are you?

Potomac, MD actually. But being just over the border, and being far more interested in VA's politics than Maryland's (for obvious reasons as a conservative -- ain't much to talk about here), I'm extremely familiar with the political lay of the land in VA, especially NoVA.

Can I just take this moment to mention that I think Ken Cuccinelli is a guaranteed loser if he gets the GOP nomination for Governor in 2013? It'll be Jerry Kilgore all over again. Except the outcome this time will be Governor Terry friggin' MacAuliffe.

Posted by: Jeff B. at July 19, 2012 03:20 PM (SQO5y)

93 I want to see VA go red even more than my own swing state of MO. Remember the last election when St. Louis kept the polls open late? I'm telling you, do not underestimate the dirty tricks in MO. My stepdaughter and her husband slept with the pods under their bed. Can't fill up a whole thread with details, but I'd love to see VA go red!

Posted by: Justamom at July 19, 2012 03:21 PM (Sptt8)

94 Almost a hundred comments and no Suck it, Joe! Slackers.

Posted by: toby928© at July 19, 2012 03:26 PM (QupBk)

I agree with Jeff, Virginia of old is no longer with us. It is not lost by any means, but at this time it is no more than a toss up. It is joining the list of states that are controlled by one or two uban areas.

Breaks my heart to see all the Obama stickers in Loudoun, which just a few years ago was a strong national GOP county.

And Jim, you poor bastard....Alexandria is Jim Moran country.

Posted by: Jinx the Cat at July 19, 2012 03:27 PM (OHvw4)

96 Ohio-- 18 electoral votes, VA-- 13. Focus on Ohio and if Portman gets you Ohio...you go with the Portman.

Posted by: tasker at July 19, 2012 03:30 PM (r2PLg)

97 The Eastern part of New Mexico is basically Little Texas, and Southern New Mexico leans slightly conservative, that's where Governor Martinez is from but you also have a major university their, Albequerque leans to the left and Northern New Mexico wants to be Aspen when it grows up.

Posted by: Ed Wood vs Godzilla at July 19, 2012 03:32 PM (pop1z)

98 I've heard that New Mexico has more government workers per capita than any other state.

Posted by: Jinx the Cat at July 19, 2012 03:33 PM (OHvw4)

99 there not their, I should stop drinking windex.

Posted by: Ed Wood vs Godzilla at July 19, 2012 03:33 PM (pop1z)

100 penn is light red. baracky needs a blow out in allegheny cty. he ain't getting it.

Posted by: newrouter at July 19, 2012 06:49 PM (kfeRL)

The way I guesstimate voter enthusiasm here in Penn's Green Wood is the number of Bumper stickers and yard signs. I've seen 5 stickers, no yard signs

Posted by: Ombudsman at July 19, 2012 03:34 PM (zXLtf)

101 Has anyone said "damn we hate Delaware" yet? Because they should.

Posted by: Blue Hen at July 19, 2012 03:34 PM (dQKMZ)

102 Quoting: "Three general intelligence questions at the top of each ballot, to be answered correctly or ballot not counted.
Such as, "What hemisphere do you live in?"."

I'm with ya, Justamom, but heck, how will we ever get to the point of adding a simple quiz to the ballot to eliminate idiots when we can't even check voter ID any more.

Posted by: Mr_Write at July 19, 2012 03:38 PM (VJUQK)

103 I assume this is a bad thing, CHART OF THE DAY: Are You Ready To See A Totally Bonkers Soybean Chart? http://is.gd/DscZS3

Posted by: toby928© at July 19, 2012 03:38 PM (QupBk)

104 hey, Blue Hen, any idea which blogs daveyboy is stinking up these days..?

Posted by: mallfly at July 19, 2012 03:39 PM (bJm7W)

105 @ Jinx According to Business Insider, as of 2010 New Mexico was 3rd with 20% working for the government, behind Alaska and Wyoming. Link in the Name.

Posted by: Ed Wood vs Godzilla at July 19, 2012 03:40 PM (pop1z)

106 Last two cycles in Colorado saw the Pubs put up atrocious candidates at the top of the statewide ticket. The state party cannot find its own ass with both hands. This go-round no top of ticket for gov or senate and no opportunity to screw it up. We tend to vote for the man and not the party. I see this one going convincingly to Romney. I'm even willing to welch on a bet for a steak dinner on it.

Posted by: ObjectionSustained at July 19, 2012 03:41 PM (WO3mu)

107 Quoting: "According to Business Insider, as of 2010 New Mexico was 3rd with 20% working for the government, behind Alaska and Wyoming."

Interesting statistics. Though Alaska can get kinda Murkowski...um... I mean murky, Wyoming is probably the most-red state in the union.

Posted by: Mr_Write at July 19, 2012 03:43 PM (VJUQK)

108 I would imagine that Fedl employees in red states are doing the kind of work that most people think is what the gov't should be doing. Am I wrong about that?

Posted by: mallfly at July 19, 2012 03:45 PM (bJm7W)

109 Quoting: "Last two cycles in Colorado saw the Pubs put up atrocious candidates at the top of the statewide ticket."

Similar problem here in Washington state, but the GOP here has had that problem for decades. The Repub's candidate for governor seems to be polling pretty well right now, but that is the exception to the rule.

Posted by: Mr_Write at July 19, 2012 03:46 PM (VJUQK)

110 Thanks Ed, I stand corrected. Probably read it in the Post.

Posted by: Jinx the Cat at July 19, 2012 03:47 PM (OHvw4)

111 New Hampshire is surely leaning Red/Republican /Romney.

Posted by: And stop calling me Shirley at July 19, 2012 03:49 PM (gL8se)

112 No problem, I can see why New Mexico would be ranked that high, there are about 5 state universities, a handful of military bases plus and only a little over a million people, I think that is one of the reasons Wyoming might be one, they might have the same number of federal workers as other states but a lot less people to fill them.

Posted by: Ed Wood vs Godzilla at July 19, 2012 03:57 PM (pop1z)

113 hey, Blue Hen, any idea which blogs daveyboy is stinking up these days..?
Posted by: mallfly

I do not know.

Posted by: Blue Hen at July 19, 2012 03:57 PM (dQKMZ)

114 "New Hampshire is surely leaning Red/Republican /Romney." Not at all. Obama has lead consistently there all year. I thought an East Coast liberal Republican would play well there, but nope.

Posted by: dragonfly at July 19, 2012 04:07 PM (t8tck)

115 Florida? A tossup this year? WTF?

Posted by: Gordon undead Ramsay at July 19, 2012 04:14 PM (9HhTH)

116 >Albuquerque leans to the left and

Santa Fe is the dry heat version of Berkeley

Posted by: Gordon undead Ramsay at July 19, 2012 04:19 PM (9HhTH)

117 If only we could circumcise Florida, we would be a solid red state

Posted by: Cindermutha at July 19, 2012 04:57 PM (iVx7a)

118 Sorry CAC...disagree with you on Florida....Ohio yes....Rasmussen has Romney up and so did the Battleground Poll....Florida is still leans Romney...in fact his disapproval in Florida is now 54 percent (that is Obama). No Florida CAC is not a toss up but leans Romney....he is struggling here big time...and I would know I live here....only West Palm Beach and Broward prefer Obama....but Florida will be red!

Posted by: bluerose75 at July 19, 2012 05:02 PM (HDcKc)

119 CAC,

Could you paste the electoral votes in a nice bold font inside all the states for which they'll fit? Or, at least, the 'toss ups'?

OH, PA, VA, FL -alone- seems like a mighty big pile of toss up.

Posted by: Al at July 19, 2012 05:05 PM (MzQOZ)

120 Delaware is dead to anything with a whiff of common sense about it. Which is why I will cross the nearby state line to aid GOP GOTV in Pennsylvania. Because I want to be laughing my ass off at Barky's flameout by 9:00 PM on Election Day.

Posted by: Krebs v Carnot: Epic Battle of the Cycling Stars at July 19, 2012 05:13 PM (gznAu)

121 >>>If only we could circumcise Florida, we would be a solid red state.

Hate to break it to you, but if we're talking in geographic terms, what FL would need in order to make it a solid red state is...um, castration. A 'circumcision' would actually end up slicing away some of the most reliably red parts of the state.

Posted by: Jeff B. at July 19, 2012 05:18 PM (SQO5y)

122 3 freakin' states ( California, Illinois & New York) give the Dims a huge advantage. Funny how 3 states who are in such shit shape keep blindly supporting the assholes who put them in the mess they're in.

Posted by: TheQuietMan at July 19, 2012 05:22 PM (hlDou)

123 I partially blame GWHBush for destroying the Republican's in California. I remember when Cal was a reliably Republican state at the Presidential level. The so-called Peace Dividend hurt the military bases and defense industry hard and the Republican voters left the state.

Posted by: toby928© at July 19, 2012 05:26 PM (QupBk)

124 35 My Vermont is still a beautiful dark blue on this map.

We got some rain today. It watered the twenty-foot round "O" logo those of us in the Democratic Womens' Garden Club made on the town square out of red, white, and blue carnations.

Posted by: Mary Cloggenstein from Brattleboro, VT at July 19, 2012 06:46 PM (x3vvv)

For Gawds sake go out there on a walk before daylight and put some roundup on those poor thirsty plants! Gawd doesn't like commies.

Posted by: ConcealedKerry or SubMitt at July 19, 2012 05:46 PM (nonzP)

125 Colorado used to be solid conservative until it got invaded by doofus east coast liberals who thought that living in Denver was "like living in the mountains, man.". Up until then the majority of people in that state had the good sense to be embarrassed by the one liberal that we sent to congress the estimable Pat Schroeder who, come to think of it, could have passed for Pelosi's grandma. Ms. Schroeder once excoriated a fellow member of the house for criticizing one of her inane positions by saying he wouldn't have done so if she didn't have a vagina. His retort was "Well, Pat , if you used your vagina as much as you use your mouth we'd all be a lot happier." Or something to that effect. Good times. And here's hoping the spacing doesn't get screwed up in this post.

Posted by: Natasha at July 19, 2012 05:48 PM (pyYXJ)

126 This is what I'd expect from CAC. Obama is clearly in the lead, especially in the electoral college. So instead of CAC assigning blue to states where Obama has a clear and significant lead, he just puts them in the "toss-up" category. It's a joke. Look at a serious projection at fivethirtyeight.com. It's close in the popular vote (at about Obama +2). But in the electoral college, Obama is at about 290. Certainly some states are close, but Obama has a significant lead. But CAC would never admit that. I'm sure he won't let himself believe it until the day after the election. But really, these CAC projections aren't serious and aren't to be taken seriously.

Posted by: Just a guy at July 19, 2012 07:02 PM (gnViO)

127

Obama lost our AAA credit rating, ate a dog, ran guns into Mexico, etc. But, I think what will cost him the election is that he ruined Oprah Winfrey.

Posted by: JustLikeDavidHasselhoff at July 19, 2012 08:23 PM (Rwrs+)

128 Just a guy said: Obama is clearly in the lead, especially in the electoral college

Not necessarily. The polls are taking a static picture of how the voter landscape looked a week ago. We're doing a better job of accounting for how the low swing voter approval of Obama (~29%) will likely manifest itself on election day. As Ace just posted today, from Larry Sabato:

"Swing voters had much more negative opinions of President ObamaÂ’s job performance than other voters. In fact, their opinions were almost as negative as those of Romney supporters. Only 11% of swing voters approved of ObamaÂ’s job performance compared with 6% of Romney voters. In contrast, 92% of Obama voters approved of the presidentÂ’s job performance."

We're also accounting for the registered-->likely voter shifts and the developing Romney money advantage. AoS is closer, you will see.

Posted by: Uriah Heep at July 19, 2012 09:23 PM (Wa+Fw)

129 FWIW: You mention the "serious" projections at 538.

Nate Silver, heh; his model was once somewhat neat (circa 200

; it's turned into a ridiculously overly built piece-of-shit that he is hand-tuning -- and it's still off as we saw in 2010. It's a novelty that will be outperformed by simple models such as Douglas Hibbs 'Bread & Peace' model.

I (and I believe CAC both) projected the 2010 midterms closer than Nate. He's not that special or using anything that extraordinary for those exposed to mathematics.

At this point, he's become a guy who trolls arXiv and JASA for new papers that he can lift their techniques from. But, it's understandable as he's the proprietor of a NYTimes production now -- the site must always have new content, that great newest thing which will drive hits!

For all that impressive bloated model, ask Nate if he's using the reported undecided voter/swing voter approvals of Obama to partition the undecideds sub-set to each candidate?

Posted by: Uriah Heep at July 19, 2012 09:29 PM (Wa+Fw)

130 Not only is Romney piling up the support and momentum, he is lifting up the Senate and Rep canidates. Warren took a dive when she appeared with Obama. I'm thinking POTUS, Senate and Reps unless the other 7 states carry the day for Obama.

Posted by: The dude at July 20, 2012 07:51 AM (/pOsC)

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