August 16, 2012

AOSHQDD: Post-VP Announcement Map
— CAC

No toss-ups, states allocated to Solid, Likely, Lean, and Weak.
The darker the state, the more it favors.
Romney/Ryan...
(warning, big map again) leads President Obama/VP Biden 282-256:

postryanbounce

Boo-Ya.

Posted by: CAC at 05:24 PM | Comments (269)
Post contains 37 words, total size 1 kb.

1 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at August 16, 2012 05:25 PM (6o4Fb)

2 I can see plaid from here!



I wanna see 1984 redux.  I really do.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD 2012 at August 16, 2012 05:25 PM (Gk3SS)

3 CAC - YOU MAGNIFICENT BASTARD!!!!!

Posted by: Mjölnir, the Banhammer from Hell at August 16, 2012 05:26 PM (Jls4P)

4 Plaid, brother. Plaid Maps. I'm telling you, you'll be known far and wide as the pollingist pollwatcher of all time. Beer and boobies will fall from the sky to laud you. But only if you embrace the plaid.......

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at August 16, 2012 05:29 PM (Rhie+)

5 SUCK IT, GERG.

Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at August 16, 2012 05:29 PM (Q/1Jp)

6 MAP!!!

Posted by: eman at August 16, 2012 05:29 PM (u3Rkr)

7 270 shalt be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shalt be 270.


Well done, CAC.

Posted by: StPatrick_TN at August 16, 2012 05:31 PM (lJJMb)

8

Can we have the election tomorrow so we can get started with our economic and moral recovery?

 

Posted by: Ohio Dan at August 16, 2012 05:31 PM (JKNDp)

9 The question is whether we can win the upper midwest faster than we lose the southwest/mountain states.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at August 16, 2012 05:32 PM (R+6Q+)

10 We will take PA and MI..
Bank it!

Posted by: catman at August 16, 2012 05:33 PM (YKUmW)

11 Do I see 52 States?

Posted by: eman at August 16, 2012 05:33 PM (u3Rkr)

12 *sigh* At one time CA could go GOP.

Posted by: eman at August 16, 2012 05:33 PM (u3Rkr)

13 7 270 shalt be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shalt be 270.

269 is right out.

Posted by: pep at August 16, 2012 05:34 PM (6TB1Z)

14 Nevermind, I forgot about Minnesota.

Posted by: eman at August 16, 2012 05:34 PM (u3Rkr)

15 The libtards are imploding.  I am glad a new generation is getting to experience the smackdown that was the Reagan revolution.. The press and the democrats are going to lose and lose big, AND for the foreseeable future..   Great Map !

Posted by: Yip in Texas at August 16, 2012 05:34 PM (Mrdk1)

16 I feel like a hotdog in a hallway.

Posted by: garrett at August 16, 2012 05:34 PM (3ZUNT)

17 Love the map, but it always shocks me to see how far I have to travel to even see pink.

Posted by: TheLittlShiningMan at August 16, 2012 05:34 PM (PH+2B)

18 271 shalt thou not count, neither count thee 269, excepting that thou proceedest to 270.  272 is right out.

Posted by: andrew at August 16, 2012 05:35 PM (65QIv)

19 It's so funné that you can't make your graphics fit the pagé ;-)

Posted by: Y-not trying something out at August 16, 2012 05:35 PM (5H6zj)

20 A new MU poll will be out next week with both Obama/Romney and Thompson/Baldwin results. They've nailed the recall and the GOP primary, so if WI is truly in play, their results will show it.

Posted by: toldyaso at August 16, 2012 05:35 PM (t8tck)

21 Be still my heart!

It's a Big Giant Map!!

YAY!

Posted by: mama winger in Paul Ryan's district at August 16, 2012 05:35 PM (P6QsQ)

22 NM, OR, NV, and MN don't have any post-Ryan polls yet. Should be interesting to see if they move.

Posted by: JonathanEllis at August 16, 2012 05:35 PM (BdzEV)

23 This makes me feel the same way this guy feels about his 5 Guys Burger and Fries.   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGkHRa64sDY

Posted by: buzzion at August 16, 2012 05:36 PM (GULKT)

24 eman, remember the ending of "Chinatown"?


Forget it Jake eman, it's Chinatown California.

Posted by: StPatrick_TN at August 16, 2012 05:36 PM (lJJMb)

25 One...two...five!

Posted by: USS Diversity at August 16, 2012 05:36 PM (2d71t)

26 A new MU poll will be out next week with both Obama/Romney and Thompson/Baldwin results. They've nailed the recall and the GOP primary, so if WI is truly in play, their results will show it.




-------

Looking forward to seeing that one.

Posted by: mama winger in Paul Ryan's district at August 16, 2012 05:37 PM (P6QsQ)

27 "NM, OR, NV, and MN don't have any post-Ryan polls yet. Should be interesting to see if they move." NM, OR and MN are 100% not in play. NV has turned blue, but it's not hopeless.

Posted by: toldyaso at August 16, 2012 05:38 PM (ltZ2R)

28 This is nice and all, but frankly CAC I'm beginning to think that some of your assessments are a bit...non-rigorous, shall we say. 

For example, I see no reason to list Ohio as 'leaning Romney' at this point.  I think Romney can win it (and I hope he will win it), but there's no question but that right now the polling isn't favoring us, and there are underlying reasons to suspect that the numbers reflect actual real factors (union members, working-class guys turned off to Romney by the Obama attack ads, a general malaise, etc.).

I buy that Iowa and Florida are lean-R states.  I also think you're too pessimistic about CO (it's a pure toss-up, and I actually think it will tilt GOP) and too optimistic about Pennsylvania (unless that new voter ID law really does something crazy, and I don't believe in such life-shaking miracles).

Also, we're going to need more than one Rasmussen poll w/a 1pt Romney/Ryan lead in WI before we start shucking each other's bricks and calling WI a 'lean-R.'

Don't want to sound like I'm attacking.  I'm very optimistic about Romney/Ryan's prospects, both in my head and in my heart.  I just think that these maps reflect wishful thinking rather than rigor a bit too much.

Posted by: Jeff B. at August 16, 2012 05:38 PM (/COnL)

29 CAC, I take it your evil ghost has left you?  You are a magnificent bastard!!!!

Posted by: Jane D'oh at August 16, 2012 05:38 PM (UOM48)

30 Posted by: StPatrick_TN at August 16, 2012 09:36 PM (lJJMb) Yeah, I know. If we could just get everybody in L.A. to stay home.

Posted by: eman at August 16, 2012 05:38 PM (u3Rkr)

31 Democrats are intent on campaigning on a middle-class-white-people-are-evil platform. They seem to keep forgetting the midwest is filled mainly with middle class white people. The white people suck message has helped Dems win in the southwest and even in Va and NC. But eventually the people in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Minnesota realize -- hey, you don't mean we suck, right? We thought you just meant, you know, the other white people. Oh, you mean all white people? Well, in that case then, fuck you.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at August 16, 2012 05:38 PM (R+6Q+)

32 18 Love the map, but it always shocks me to see how far I have to travel to even see pink.

Posted by: TheLittlShiningMan at August 16, 2012 09:34 PM (PH+2B)

Most towns have at least one street corner where that can be arranged for $100.  Especially in blue states.

Posted by: StPatrick_TN at August 16, 2012 05:38 PM (lJJMb)

33 Plus big comnemts

Posted by: Fresh at August 16, 2012 05:38 PM (O7ksG)

34 If that map is right, and I hope it is, it should end up being a short election night.

Posted by: Adam at August 16, 2012 05:38 PM (/YJYi)

35 Wow.  I feel so.....wide.....

Posted by: Jane D'oh at August 16, 2012 05:39 PM (UOM48)

36 That's not a map, Luv. This is a map.

Posted by: Crocodile Dundee at August 16, 2012 05:39 PM (3SvjA)

37

OK rocks!! Or I'll move to TX!

 

Posted by: Herpglerble at August 16, 2012 05:39 PM (Rilbs)

38 Love the map, but it always shocks me to see how far I have to travel to even see pink. Posted by: TheLittlShiningMan at August 16, 2012 09:34 PM (PH+2B) You just described my love life.

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at August 16, 2012 05:39 PM (Rhie+)

39 The comments here are wide and white.....therefore, racist.

Posted by: Jane D'oh at August 16, 2012 05:39 PM (UOM48)

40 This map is racist. The n***erazation of America.

Posted by: Turde' at August 16, 2012 05:40 PM (baHgn)

41 19 271 shalt thou not count, neither count thee 269, excepting that thou proceedest to 270. 272 is right out.

Posted by: andrew at August 16, 2012 09:35 PM (65QIv)

Way to stay true to the original, but we're blowing way past 272 in this bitch.  This is Election 2012: The Mandating*

*not in a Reggie Love way; we apologize if we have confused anyone with other ideas, NTTAWT and all.

Posted by: StPatrick_TN at August 16, 2012 05:41 PM (lJJMb)

42 You broke my bracketing but you also made me a happy cowboy CAC....

You seeing any trend showing a break in preference yet or still too soon?

Posted by: sven10077 at August 16, 2012 05:41 PM (LRFds)

43 This thread is proof that CAC is a racist.  Probably a KKK sympathizer.

At least, that's what CNN tells me.

Posted by: Jane D'oh at August 16, 2012 05:41 PM (UOM48)

44 more need more red

Posted by: Alex Stephens at August 16, 2012 05:41 PM (1/13k)

45 This is a big F'in map!

Posted by: Joey "foot-mouth" Biden at August 16, 2012 05:42 PM (YQHqe)

46 On the upside, gerg and our Nazi troll will get lost here.

Posted by: Jane D'oh at August 16, 2012 05:42 PM (UOM48)

47 Thanks, CAC! Nice colors...

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at August 16, 2012 05:42 PM (/qO9Z)

48 [The n***erazation of America.[/i]

It's about time.  Wait... you meant Naderization, right?

Posted by: Ralph Nader at August 16, 2012 05:43 PM (vjyZP)

49 Nice work, CAC.  Hope and Change.

Posted by: Jane D'oh at August 16, 2012 05:43 PM (UOM48)

50 Soap MacTavish said Unfortunately, I would have to concur.

Agreed, for the moment. OH and CO are pure-toss-ups. NH and WI may be nearing...

Posted by: Uriah Heep at August 16, 2012 05:43 PM (Wa+Fw)

51 Wait!

You didn't count us.

Posted by: Dead People at August 16, 2012 05:43 PM (9XykO)

52 I have map-wood.

Posted by: JimboHoffa at August 16, 2012 05:43 PM (dAfqy)

53 Which state is "EV"?

Posted by: navybrat at August 16, 2012 05:44 PM (p5w0t)

54 Anyone ever notice that Illinois looks like a limp dick?

Posted by: Jane D'oh at August 16, 2012 05:44 PM (UOM48)

55 ..... and its' gone

Posted by: Yip in Texas at August 16, 2012 05:44 PM (Mrdk1)

56 Why aren't Nevada and Michigan in play. I really thought they would be in play this year.

Posted by: Ben at August 16, 2012 05:45 PM (XDHBy)

57 "NM, OR and MN are 100% not in play. NV has turned blue, but it's not hopeless."
They're not in play "yet". They're only a couple points from being a couple points away.

Posted by: JonathanEllis at August 16, 2012 05:45 PM (BdzEV)

58 Must be Vermont, inverse.

Posted by: navybrat at August 16, 2012 05:45 PM (p5w0t)

59 55 Which state is "EV"? Posted by: navybrat at August 16, 2012 09:44 PM (p5w0t) --That's the electoral vote total for that row.

Posted by: logprof at August 16, 2012 05:46 PM (baHgn)

60 The dark and light blue states?  We put our re-education camps there.

Posted by: Jane D'oh at August 16, 2012 05:46 PM (UOM48)

61 The distribution by county adds a sad note in many places.

Posted by: eman at August 16, 2012 05:46 PM (u3Rkr)

62 Also remember it's OK if we're just even for now.

We're in a super state of flux; between the awesome Medicare assault and the fact that it won't shake out until the conventions have ended. Oh, and the Romney carpet-bombing of Chicago begins.

Posted by: Uriah Heep at August 16, 2012 05:46 PM (Wa+Fw)

63

If PA and MI go red Ohio will definitely follow suit.

 

Posted by: Ohio Dan at August 16, 2012 05:46 PM (JKNDp)

64 I like the map, CAC! @ 17?

Posted by: Mountainturtle at August 16, 2012 05:46 PM (8JJcY)

65 WOOOOOOOOOOOOOo

Posted by: Alex Stephens at August 16, 2012 05:46 PM (1/13k)

66 Why is Maine so blue?  I don't get that.

Posted by: Tami at August 16, 2012 05:47 PM (X6akg)

67 NV could be a late-breaker if the preference cascade hits.  They have huge union support in Vegas (shocker, unions in a mob-run town), but they also have the 2nd largest proportion of Mormons in the country, so who knows.  I'll be shocked and gladdened if MI comes along.  The did elect a republican governor, so we shall see.

Posted by: StPatrick_TN at August 16, 2012 05:47 PM (lJJMb)

68 We need a few more solid double digit states. CA, IL and NY give the Dems a big advantage.

Posted by: TheQuietMan at August 16, 2012 05:48 PM (qK+tL)

69 What the fuck is wrong with CO?

Wasn't this at one time, in the not too distant past, a "red state."

Has it been infiltrated by mexicans or something?

Posted by: Fred Dead Head Bed at August 16, 2012 05:48 PM (m+q3/)

70 301 or bust

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Wright at August 16, 2012 05:48 PM (ovpNn)

71 Why is Maine so blue? I don't get that. Posted by: Tami at August 16, 2012 09:47 PM (X6akg) SPIT!!

Posted by: KayinMaine at August 16, 2012 05:49 PM (u3Rkr)

72 Wow.. too many carbs today.

Posted by: jewells45 is scarred for life because of ace at August 16, 2012 05:50 PM (UljOc)

73 68 Why is Maine so blue? I don't get that.

Posted by: Tami at August 16, 2012 09:47 PM (X6akg)

IIRC, they have a disproportionately large percentage of folks on the dole up there, plus years of history voting for dems.  Plus lots of folks descended from froggy Canadians.

Posted by: StPatrick_TN at August 16, 2012 05:50 PM (lJJMb)

74 Wisc. and Iowa are pretty much in the bag, and why is Missouri light red on this map?

Posted by: cm9000 at August 16, 2012 05:50 PM (lzvtR)

75 Way to stay true to the original, but we're blowing way past 272 in this bitch. This is Election 2012: The Mandating*

I'm feeling confident, too.  Couldn't resist the temptation to do a Python bit, though.

Posted by: andrew at August 16, 2012 05:50 PM (65QIv)

76 @71.. one word.  California.

Posted by: jewells45 is scarred for life because of ace at August 16, 2012 05:50 PM (UljOc)

77

I wanna see 1984 redux. I really do.

Shit ATC - I'd settle for 1980  results.

Posted by: Infidel voting for America's R & R at August 16, 2012 05:51 PM (rkWzl)

78 My skippy is fully whipped now.

Posted by: MrCaniac at August 16, 2012 05:52 PM (1grxW)

79 Map looks exactly like my gut feeling right now. Book it.

Posted by: Walter Freeman at August 16, 2012 05:52 PM (kqGWM)

80 56 Anyone ever notice that Illinois looks like a limp dick? What is with the Ettes and limpness tonight?!?

Posted by: BCochran1981 at August 16, 2012 05:53 PM (GEICT)

81 Remember JEF has SEVEN(7) states that are not on this map and  their electoral votes are in his pocket. got to love the Demos...after Stalin's own heart they are.

Posted by: redgrains at August 16, 2012 05:53 PM (TExGL)

82 Flip Michigan and New Hampshire, if you're feelin' saucy.

Posted by: Walter Freeman at August 16, 2012 05:53 PM (kqGWM)

83 >>>What the fuck is wrong with CO?

Wasn't this at one time, in the not too distant past, a "red state."

Has it been infiltrated by mexicans or something?


No.  Californians.  Worse, actually.  You can get Mexicans to vote GOP given the right pitch (i.e., not "WE NEED TO THROW THESE ILLEGALS INTO TRUCKS RIGHT NOW AND DUMP THEM ALL IN TIJUANA!") because, as pretty much everyone who's ever interacted with that population knows, they're some of the hardest-working salt of the earth people out there. 

But limousine liberal Californians?  Who come to Colorado to smoke dope, ski, and talk about how awesome their 'green environmentally friendly" Chevy Volts are?  The only cure for that is death from old age.

Posted by: Jeff B. at August 16, 2012 05:53 PM (/COnL)

84 LALALALALA Can't hear you LALALALALA

Posted by: Dr. Gergenfly Tardyaso at August 16, 2012 05:53 PM (aHR5E)

85 I wanna see 1984 redux. I really do.

Shit ATC - I'd settle for 1980 results.

Posted by: Infidel voting for America's R & R at August 16, 2012 09:51 PM (rkWzl)



I'll take any election result that puts Barry out of his current job.

Posted by: TheQuietMan at August 16, 2012 05:54 PM (qK+tL)

86 I'm feeling confident, too. Couldn't resist the temptation to do a Python bit, though.

Posted by: andrew at August 16, 2012 09:50 PM (65QIv)

Agreed.  Maybe one of the next lines is more appropriate:

Once the number 270, being the 270th number, be reached, then lobbest thou thy Righteous Adminstration of Liberty towards thy foe, who, being naughty in my sight, shall snuff it.


Posted by: StPatrick_TN at August 16, 2012 05:54 PM (lJJMb)

87 There is the possibility of a Preference Cascade at this point, especially if the left keeps freaking out. The structure of politics in states now precludes a "Bush v. Dukakis" moment, unfortunately. Even SNL got in with that one, with their Red World Map: "Oh, look, Lichtenstein has gone Republican this year!" The CAC map actually says some slightly ugly things, when you think about it.

Posted by: Ed Schultz, Howard Dean, Debbie Washyourhair, et al at August 16, 2012 05:54 PM (bxiXv)

88 If Virginia goes blue, then we'd have 269 to 269.

Posted by: Nicholas Kronos at August 16, 2012 05:55 PM (qyQRd)

89 Would love to see this... WI and VA need some more work to get that pinky color, I think.

Posted by: Book at August 16, 2012 05:55 PM (oxqtW)

90 If the demographics of America were the same today as 1980, Romney would already be in Reagan territory. Romney is doing even better among whites than Reagan did. But the demographics aren't the same. The Left chose to elect a new people and it worked.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at August 16, 2012 05:55 PM (R+6Q+)

91 Makes me wonder if it will all come down to Wisconsin this time- Ryan may be the lynch pin ( sorry for the word, Toure)

Posted by: jjshaka at August 16, 2012 05:55 PM (RPHvA)

92 It's always the dumbest socks that get stuck!

Posted by: Merovign, Dark Lord of the Sith at August 16, 2012 05:55 PM (bxiXv)

93

>>it always shocks me to see how far I have to travel to even see pink.

 

No such thing as too far to travel for pink.

Posted by: garrett at August 16, 2012 05:55 PM (3ZUNT)

94 Yeah Oregon is blue, and will stay blue. No chance of it going for anyone but Obama but.... this year, the margin will be much less than before.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 16, 2012 05:56 PM (r4wIV)

95 71 Yes, mexicans and californian's.  Fuckers.

Posted by: Infidel voting for America's R & R at August 16, 2012 05:56 PM (rkWzl)

96

AZ & IN are solid now. Nice!

 

But losing OH or VA would be fatal.

Posted by: Optimizer at August 16, 2012 05:56 PM (As94z)

97

If Virginia goes blue, then we'd have 269 to 269.

Do you think?

Posted by: Douglas Wilder at August 16, 2012 05:57 PM (3SvjA)

98 269-269. Romney/ Slow Joe...oh boy!

Posted by: jjshaka at August 16, 2012 05:57 PM (RPHvA)

99 I like our chances.

Posted by: eman at August 16, 2012 05:57 PM (u3Rkr)

100 OTOH, flipping PA would end this thing.

Posted by: Optimizer at August 16, 2012 05:58 PM (As94z)

101 "What the fuck is wrong with CO?"
------------
Californians. They messed up their own states and now they're moving to other western states and voting in the same GD people and policies they did in CA.

Posted by: Lizzy at August 16, 2012 05:58 PM (hSm+F)

102 F'n CO.

But what the heck, I am going to go ahead and predict NJ goes on R & R, cause it makes me feel good.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at August 16, 2012 05:58 PM (QK3qp)

103 >>IIRC, they have a disproportionately large percentage of folks on the dole up there, plus years of history voting for dems. Plus lots of folks descended from froggy Canadians. Some of that. But all of New England is blue. New England was the original mill manufacturing region of the country and that meant company towns and unions. On top of that this place is full of colleges and universities that attract moonbats from around the world (Fauchahontas is an Okie) and study (Barry is from, well somewhere else) and many of them stay. But lots of them are old school Dems and the liberals are getting to be too far left for even some of them. Getting Scott Brown elected may not seem like a big deal to people from very conservative states but for Mass it was damn near a miracle.

Posted by: JackStraw at August 16, 2012 05:58 PM (TMB3S)

104 I think having a native son will help quite a bit in WI as compared to other states.  They really do have their own identity up there, and it's less a regional thing than "the south", so having a Wisconsinite on the ticket should be very attractive.  Having the favorite of the state on the ticket, along with what we've seen in 2010, 2011, and 2012 from them makes me think it's maybe a little more red than CAC gives it credit for.

Posted by: StPatrick_TN at August 16, 2012 05:58 PM (lJJMb)

105 Oops - my bad. Lose VA, it's a tie, it goes to the House, Obama pays twice for ObamaCare.

Posted by: Optimizer at August 16, 2012 05:59 PM (As94z)

106 Blacks vote 95% Democrat Mex-Americans vote 70% for Democrats. Asians vote 60% Democrat Whites vote 55% Republican. Which is why the strategy of the Left has been to increase immigration as much as possible. Just wait till they start pushing for large scale immigration from Africa. It's already happening. Every 10 African you let in is 9 votes for a Democrat. There is no group of immigrants that votes Republican. Republicans should favor sharp limits on immigration or they are doomed demographically. California was hard-core Republican 30 years ago. Opinions don't change very quickly. We might win the Mex-American vote someday, but probably won't happen in our lifetime.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at August 16, 2012 06:00 PM (R+6Q+)

107 I think PA should be pink(er). It's coal country and although unemp hasn't been too bad, it's the HOME of the BITTER CLINGERS, Bibles, guns etc.

We are NOT happy with Mr. Hope and Change.

We are NOT happy with him ruling by fiat. (no not the car).

We elected a nitwit for Governor (I say that due to his cronyism and Union loving ways but he's better than Rendel) but he's a Republican nitwit.

The only strongholds for Obama are Allentown, Philly and Pittsburgh.

For the obvious reasons. (No, not that, they're all run by Democrats.)

Posted by: Hylozoic at August 16, 2012 06:01 PM (Vh0f5)

108 I really hope I'm wrong, but I think you're right about Minnesota. We've been victimized (le bon mot) by fat faggots in charge of the state party, actual infiltration by Dem.-Commies who married fat hags who want to leash cats, and ex-Judenrat Esperantist George Soros and his secretive Secretary of State Project. They imported legions of Islamists from Africa, weird little Asians who were on our side at one point, but lacked the wheel and other attainments of Civilization in their homeland and are only now coming around, vast rafts of Katrina jetsam, and the few (thankfully) illegal drug or human-trafficking career criminal here to put his extended family on the Stockholm-like social benefits. There is even documented "voting" by ADD persons, God bless them, bussed in at taxpayer expense, in Wright County. All to dilute the votes of those whose ancestors walked here, busted the incredible prairie sod, thrived and ski-jumped in the winters, and then invented the Norden bombsight. It's till an effin' amazing country! God bless us, every one. http://tinyurl.com/38e9ksv

Posted by: Thorvald at August 16, 2012 06:02 PM (1V6Pv)

109 Yeah, this is going to last longer than four hours...

Posted by: Alex at August 16, 2012 06:03 PM (oL8vk)

110 "Which is why the strategy of the Left has been to increase immigration as much as possible. "
Yeah, England is doing the same thing. A memo came out a few months back revealing that the labor party was doing EXACTLY that: pushing more immigration to help their electoral chances. Nobody seemed surprised.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 16, 2012 06:03 PM (r4wIV)

111 Whoa...if true this is a stunner.  Hillary turned down VP idea two weeks ago.  The desperation...it runneth deeper than we think in the Obama camp.

Posted by: phoenixrisen at August 16, 2012 06:03 PM (JcgQg)

112
If the demographics of America were the same today as 1980, Romney would already be in Reagan territory.... But the demographics aren't the same. The Left chose to elect a new people and it worked.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe





You know, I'm starting to think the Republican Party's strategy of singing the hosanna chorus on immigration/amnesty while rubber stamping the evolution of the entitlement society might not have been a very good plan.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at August 16, 2012 06:03 PM (kdS6q)

113

If that map were to become true we wouldnt even need WI. I wish it will become true, but concerning the here and now, it looks a lil too optimistic. In every other electoral map Ive seen up to now states like Ohio, Florida and Virginia are toss-ups.

Posted by: Elize Nayden at August 16, 2012 06:03 PM (HHi7C)

114 This according to Robert Costa at National Review per previous post.

Posted by: phoenixrisen at August 16, 2012 06:04 PM (JcgQg)

115 I never realized how close Hawaii is to Texas. Obama suggested I swim on over there.

Posted by: Uncle Slo-Joe, practicing the breaststroke at August 16, 2012 06:04 PM (YQHqe)

116 Iowa can't be safely described as lean Romney.

Posted by: CJK at August 16, 2012 10:02 PM (XGZYX)



You're right, Iowa is solid Romney, lets compare comments at about 7:00 CST, Nov. 6.

Posted by: cm9000 at August 16, 2012 06:05 PM (lzvtR)

117 Thorvald - Thank you for the laugh of the week!  OMG I love you man.

Posted by: Infidel voting for America's R & R at August 16, 2012 06:05 PM (rkWzl)

118 If you want our Romney in, here's a state you need to win I'm the map! I'm the map, I'm the map If you want a state to flip, let me help give you a tip I'm the map! I'm the map, I'm the map I'm the map, I'm the map, I'm the map, I'm the map I'm the map, I'm the map, I'm the map, I'm the map I'm the map!!!

Posted by: Uncledave at August 16, 2012 06:05 PM (1qgTs)

119

Posted by: Jeff B. at August 16, 2012 09:38 PM (/COnL)  

 

The left has math deficiencies, so we can't scare them with numbers.  Thus, the Gigantic Horror Map. 

Posted by: 66chevelle at August 16, 2012 06:06 PM (QjSgY)

120
OTOH, flipping PA would end this thing.
Posted by: Optimizer




So would Team Romney losing Ohio or Florida.... and that's a damn sight more likely.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at August 16, 2012 06:06 PM (kdS6q)

121 Why are my letters being squeezed together? There are spaces before I post but then they get compacted. Weird.

Posted by: Uncle Slo-Joe, practicing the breaststroke at August 16, 2012 06:06 PM (YQHqe)

122 There seems to be a slowish conversion process among asians and Mex-Americas where 2nd and 3rd generations become more assimilated and slightly more likely to vote Republican. But that conversion process is very slow, takes many decades and shows no signs the Repubs will ever approach parity. And there is almost no conversion of the black vote. 90% of blacks are convinced Republicans are the part of slavery, racism and the KKK and there's pretty much nothing we can do to convince them otherwise. The well has been poisoned with too many lies.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at August 16, 2012 06:07 PM (R+6Q+)

123 It's a tax!

Posted by: the white board at August 16, 2012 06:08 PM (D7lJF)

124 Wandered over to KOS to see what they're telling themselves.  It boils down to tax returns r teh importantest, Ryan got stimulus funds for his district/state so he is a hypocrite, Mitt is a meany-face rich guy, and while new home startups fell, they're still better than they were in August 2009.  Oh, and unemployment claims rose but they rose less than they did last week.  So, you know, things are getting better.

I think they might be figuring out that they're screwed.

Aside: Biden got sent for a timeout.  Hahahaha.  http://tinyurl.com/9vjquf7

Posted by: andrew at August 16, 2012 06:08 PM (65QIv)

125 I can see red from my house.

Posted by: Dr. Varno at August 16, 2012 06:08 PM (8XHAK)

126 CA, IL and NY give the Dems a big advantage.

NY may be in play come Nov.  Its a longshot, but if upstate turnout is big and downstate is discouraged/depressed enough, it flips.

Posted by: @PurpAv at August 16, 2012 06:09 PM (/RS2M)

127

Posted by: Uncledave at August 16, 2012 10:05 PM (1qgTs)

LOL and Swiper, no goddam swiping on November 6th, comprende?

Posted by: 66chevelle at August 16, 2012 06:09 PM (QjSgY)

128 M'bwe'bwe

Posted by: Dr. Varno at August 16, 2012 06:10 PM (8XHAK)

129 Uncledave, that was fairly dickish.  I can hear that in my head now.  If it goes on long enough, I'm going to end up a drunken insomniac shell of myself.  So no change, but I'll be really annoyed.  Dick.

Posted by: StPatrick_TN at August 16, 2012 06:11 PM (lJJMb)

130 "And there is almost no conversion of the black vote. 90% of blacks are convinced Republicans are the part of slavery, racism and the KKK and there's pretty much nothing we can do to convince them otherwise. The well has been poisoned with too many lies."
There is a small amount, but its not enough. And blacks make it almost a matter of ethnic pride to pass on the lies and indoctrination as a sign of purity.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 16, 2012 06:12 PM (r4wIV)

131 The reality is, in the short term (next 10-20 years) the only hope the Repubs have of winning national elections is to increase their share of the white vote. Instead of winning whites 55-45, they'll have to win 60-40 or better. Romney could win a higher % of the white vote than Reagan did ... and still lose.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at August 16, 2012 06:12 PM (R+6Q+)

132

Long time lurker poking in to note that, at least in Grand Rapids, the GOP is definitely committed to getting both Obama and Stabenow out..The level of attendance/enthusiasm at tonight's GOP county convention was apparently out of the ordinary (My first time as a precinct delegate, so I can't say for sure based on my experience). I suspect MI might be more in play than the map gives credit.

I can't imagine the usual UAW strongholds are all that fired up, given that GM is still circling the drain. Just my $.02

Posted by: JustDave in GR at August 16, 2012 06:13 PM (qLz31)

133 Mitt has a very advantageous position. All he has to say is Obama had a fair shot at making things better and ended up making things worse. Give me a chance, I can do better than this.

Posted by: eman at August 16, 2012 06:13 PM (u3Rkr)

134 NY may be in play come Nov. Its a longshot, but if upstate turnout is big and downstate is discouraged/depressed enough, it flips. Posted by: @PurpAv at August 16, 2012 10:09 PM (/RS2M) MA may bring a stinky surprise to Obama's party.

Posted by: eman at August 16, 2012 06:14 PM (u3Rkr)

135 Also, Repubs really should fight higher density and public transportation. Suburbs vote Republican. Super-dense urban areas don't. We want people spread out and driving on highways. We don't want people living in 10 story condos and riding the subway -- those people vote Democrat. A more disperse America is a more right-wing America.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at August 16, 2012 06:15 PM (R+6Q+)

136 Just learned on Fox tonight that Eric Boehlert with Media Matters went after the SEALs today.

Way to go, Dickless Wonder.

Posted by: Jane D'oh at August 16, 2012 06:15 PM (UOM48)

137

Give me a chance, I can do better than this.

All we are saying, is give Mitt a chance.

Watch the aging moonbats heads explode.

Posted by: fluffy at August 16, 2012 06:16 PM (3SvjA)

138 52 Soap MacTavish said Unfortunately, I would have to concur.

Agreed, for the moment. OH and CO are pure-toss-ups. NH and WI may be nearing...

Posted by: Uriah Heep at August 16, 2012 09:43 PM (Wa+Fw)


I think you're right that these states are tossups at the moment, but we have to cut CAC a bit of slack here for using the Rasmussen numbers.  They're the only outfit out there using LV instead of RV or Adults for their numbers (on these state polls).  RV or Adult polls are simply useless shit at this point.  Everyone knows they skew Dem, we just can't confidently calculate by how much.  After Labor Day we should start to see full preference cascade in effect once all the polls go with an LV screen.

Posted by: DanInMN at August 16, 2012 06:16 PM (lDzzg)

139 >>>NY may be in play come Nov. Its a longshot, but if upstate turnout is big and downstate is discouraged/depressed enough, it flips.

Nah.

Posted by: Jeff B. at August 16, 2012 06:16 PM (/COnL)

140

way ot:  anyone remember the free nfl streaming site?

as usual the commies here arent showing the bears game

Posted by: navycopjoe at August 16, 2012 06:16 PM (Shrag)

141 Liberals are like the borg, they destroy everything in their path then move on.

Posted by: General Woundwort at August 16, 2012 06:17 PM (DWgdc)

142 Did anyone actually come up with any actual information on the "Mitt's Taxes" thing, or have the national news outlets just been carrying water for the Democrats for a month on that one item based on nothing but the word of one old pederast?

Posted by: Merovign, Dark Lord of the Sith at August 16, 2012 06:17 PM (bxiXv)

143

MA may bring a stinky surprise to Obama's party.

Seriously doubt it. Scott Brown vs Liarwatha will keep a lot of activists busy in Massachusetts that might have otherwised been helping out in NH.

Posted by: fluffy, authentic Masshole at August 16, 2012 06:18 PM (3SvjA)

144 Why, yes, yes I do NCJ.  There is no bears game on.

Posted by: buzzion at August 16, 2012 06:19 PM (GULKT)

145 135 FJ,

I'll take the inverse as a bet.  I think the GOP was lucky in a way Obama got elected.  He overplayed the race card, has humiliated socially conservative blacks, and undermined the trust of government as guardian and raider of citizen retirement.  His overreach and idiocy has either made it likely we are more racially motivated, or less.

The optamist in me says the hispanics will come to us if we let them.

Posted by: sven10077 at August 16, 2012 06:19 PM (LRFds)

146
NY may be in play come Nov. Its a longshot, but if upstate turnout is big and downstate is discouraged/depressed enough, it flips.

Posted by: @PurpAv




"Mccaine is surging in California!" Remember that from October 2008?

Good times, good times....

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at August 16, 2012 06:19 PM (kdS6q)

147 150 CJK,

hogwash

Posted by: sven10077 at August 16, 2012 06:20 PM (LRFds)

148 I'm agreeing with Jeff B.  Ohio is a hard sell.. Kasich seemingly overreached given the strong unions there.  It simply pissed off a lot of people.

What worked in Wisconsin for Walker was a disaster for Kasich.  We'll see.

As far as preference cascade goes..  I've been arguing with thelibtards at Daily Kooks and other places how the vehemently negative ads were gonna come back and bite Obama..  I think we're seeing that right now.. The Obama campaing is imploding.. slowly right now..  but it will continue like a house of cards.

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at August 16, 2012 06:20 PM (UTq/I)

149 Florida sure looks pretty in pink

Posted by: Terry in GA at August 16, 2012 06:20 PM (kZE1G)

150

You don't hear much talk in the media about the enthusiasm gap.

Why is that?

Posted by: But then, what do I know at August 16, 2012 06:21 PM (YQHqe)

151 Jewell - If you're still looking for Romney=racist defense, here's an article by Artur Davis (former 2008 Obama campaign  co-chair) explaining how Obama plays the race card. Make 'em evaluate the Romney=racist charges from the source, not the target.
http://tinyurl.com/8cemnj7

Posted by: Lizzy at August 16, 2012 06:21 PM (hSm+F)

152 Absurd. RCP says: RCP Average 7/21 - 8/13 -- 49.5 41.8 Obama +7.7 Mitchell Research 8/13 - 8/13 1079 LV 49 44 Obama +5 EPIC-MRA 7/24 - 7/31 600 LV 48 42 Obama +6 Rasmussen Reports 7/23 - 7/23 500 LV 48 42 Obama +6 PPP (D) 7/21 - 7/23 579 RV 53 39 Obama +14

Posted by: Mary Jane Rottencrotch at August 16, 2012 06:21 PM (uPgsy)

153 What worked in Wisconsin for Walker was a disaster for Kasich. We'll see.

As far as preference cascade goes.. I've been arguing with thelibtards at Daily Kooks and other places how the vehemently negative ads were gonna come back and bite Obama.. I think we're seeing that right now.. The Obama campaing is imploding.. slowly right now.. but it will continue like a house of cards.

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at August 16, 2012 10:20 PM (UTq/I)

 

Did Walkers proposal include firefighters and Police, because that is where the pain came to Kasich.

Posted by: buzzion at August 16, 2012 06:22 PM (GULKT)

154 147 Mero,

They would make it up whole cloth had Searchlight Stalker not shat it out....

They got nothing else, and Mitt may leave that hanging and start asking innocent questions about Barack's people or his house or his lack of financial fraud convictions....

I am confident to the point it is like watching a MacGuyver episode

Posted by: sven10077 at August 16, 2012 06:22 PM (LRFds)

155 When you spread the electorals around, it's good for everybody.

CA needs to learn how to share instead of being greedy.

Posted by: Big Chief Sit N Spin at August 16, 2012 06:23 PM (M8BJV)

156 158 MJR,

you say so doll face...

maybe you guys'll get D+19 turnout....

matter of fact bet the farm on it

Posted by: sven10077 at August 16, 2012 06:23 PM (LRFds)

157 Jeff and Soap.  CAC shows OH as "weak" not "leaning" so give him a break.  Your point is taken, but CAC said he threw out all leaners.   

Posted by: Sophistahick at August 16, 2012 06:23 PM (91TGs)

158 Did anyone actually come up with any actual information on the "Mitt's Taxes" thing, or have the national news outlets just been carrying water for the Democrats for a month on that one item based on nothing but the word of one old pederast?

Posted by: Merovign, Dark Lord of the Sith at August 16, 2012 10:17 PM (bxiXv)



Have you seen the commercials saying "Romney made 20 million dollars, but probably paid less taxes (percent) than you? Pure envy pandering. And it is not water carrying, it is message-coordination.

Posted by: cm9000 at August 16, 2012 06:23 PM (lzvtR)

159 CJK, do you tear up at Downfall clips?

Posted by: nickless at August 16, 2012 06:24 PM (MMC8r)

160 129 CA, IL and NY give the Dems a big advantage. NY may be in play come Nov. Its a longshot, but if upstate turnout is big and downstate is discouraged/depressed enough, it flips. Posted by: @PurpAv at August 16, 2012 10:09 PM (/RS2M) is chucke up for re election, he's awfully quiet these days..

Posted by: John Sununu fan at August 16, 2012 06:24 PM (oZfic)

161 Toss-ups I mean

Posted by: Sophistahick at August 16, 2012 06:24 PM (91TGs)

162

I like the contiguous nature of Red land.  As well as the natural resources contained therein and the capacity for food production. 

 

Just throwing that out there for no reason whatsoever.  Just a random observation yessirreebob.

Posted by: Burn the Witch at August 16, 2012 06:24 PM (eoedh)

163 158 You're averaging polls over a month old and you call us absurd?

Posted by: nickless at August 16, 2012 06:25 PM (MMC8r)

164
When you spread the electorals around, it's good for everybody. CA needs to learn how to share instead of being greedy.
Posted by: Big Chief Sit N Spin




When – when did I ever refuse an accommodation?

Posted by: Don California



Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at August 16, 2012 06:25 PM (kdS6q)

165 >>For example, I see no reason to list Ohio as 'leaning Romney' at this point. You could argue that Ohio is a toss up or slightly lean Romney. It's on the border and the momentum is in Romney's favor. If you witnessed the crowd there over the last 3 days or Rasmussen, by far the most accurate likely voter poll, coming out with a Romney +2 it's not hard at all to argue that OH isn't a lean Romney at this point.

Posted by: JackStraw at August 16, 2012 06:25 PM (TMB3S)

166 Cac if you are going to post this you are obligated to include cake girl!!!

Posted by: Robert at August 16, 2012 06:25 PM (YKxfx)

167 160 Buzzion,

Ohio's problems wwere different....and our response as a population was different we allowed misleading ads from unions to try to make the case we were after private ent unions as well as Public....frankly Fire and Police need controlled.

A cali highway patroller gets a better retirement than my wife will get if God willing she makes it to 20....

I am not cool with that.

Posted by: sven10077 at August 16, 2012 06:25 PM (LRFds)

168 Seriously doubt it. Scott Brown vs Liarwatha will keep a lot of activists busy in Massachusetts that might have otherwised been helping out in NH. Posted by: fluffy, authentic Masshole at August 16, 2012 10:18 PM (3SvjA) If Scott wins, a Mitt win makes sense.

Posted by: eman at August 16, 2012 06:26 PM (u3Rkr)

169 *is* not isn't

Posted by: JackStraw at August 16, 2012 06:26 PM (TMB3S)

170

Posted by: CJK at August 16, 2012 10:19 PM (XGZYX)

 

I guess you have a solution to the problem?  A final solution?

Posted by: Burn the Witch at August 16, 2012 06:27 PM (eoedh)

171 Did Walkers proposal include firefighters and Police, because that is where the pain came to Kasich. Posted by: buzzion
.......
It did not.  Teachers, state workers, etc.

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at August 16, 2012 06:27 PM (UTq/I)

172 There is no evidence suggesting the hispanic vote is trending Republican. In fact, the reverse appears to be true. And the one right wing hispanic group -- Cubans -- is trending Democrat quickly as the Cubans who experienced communism die off. Repubs like to point out that Mex-Americans are socially conservative. So are blacks and they voted 95% for abortion loving Obama. Humans are tribal. Democrats campaign on a message -- see that white guy with more stuff than you? I heard he hates darker skinned people like you. I heard he's a racist scumbag. Hey, vote for me and I'll give you his stuff! It's a powerful message. It works.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at August 16, 2012 06:28 PM (R+6Q+)

173 >>If Scott wins, a Mitt win makes sense. Nope. If Brown wins Romney has a chance. But it is still unlikely. Trust me on this one. Barry will have to be in much, much, much worse shape than he is now for Romney to win here.

Posted by: JackStraw at August 16, 2012 06:28 PM (TMB3S)

174 Just saw our friend Ray Gaster, of the "Kiss My Ass" signs on Greta.

He looks like a younger, more energized version of Teh Fred.


Posted by: Jane D'oh at August 16, 2012 06:28 PM (UOM48)

175 71 What the fuck is wrong with CO? I keep telling you that the last two cycles in Colorado were a fluke. Republican party in disarray. No GOP enthusiasm because of hideous candidates at the top of statewide tickets and a penchant to vote for the man over party. With the addition of Ryan I see a pretty comfortable win for Romney. We have no statewide elections this cycle. There is zero enthusiasm for Obama here. YMMV.

Posted by: ObjectionSustained at August 16, 2012 06:29 PM (m3ndV)

176 Hispanics are voting Dem.  It's the side where their bread is buttered.

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at August 16, 2012 06:30 PM (UTq/I)

177 I grew up in northern NY and still have friends there.  Upstate ain't happy with Obama at all and certain segments of the NYC population are slipping.

There's also an illegal alien problem that's been seeping into upstate people ain't too happy about. 

Campaign contribution data already show Obama's lost the wall street employee crowd by like 70/30.   His jewish vote advantage has been slowly eroding...and there's a shitload of small business owners in NYC who can't be too happy about you didn't build that.

The only thing making NY blue is the NYC population delta over upstate in normal times.  These aren't normal times though.

Posted by: @PurpAv at August 16, 2012 06:31 PM (/RS2M)

178 The medium term strategy is to find some right-wing Mex-Americans and make them the face of the party. I expect that will have to start happening shortly. And cubans Rubio and Ted Cruz don't count since most US hispanics are Mexican. We need prominent Mex-Americans in leadership positions. Cause people are racist and tribal. Sucks, but it's true.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at August 16, 2012 06:32 PM (R+6Q+)

179

If Scott wins, a Mitt win makes sense.

It does, but this is Massachusetts :--)

I would like to see Romney do a couple rallies with Brown. It would help both of them and Obama would be forced to play more defense.

Posted by: fluffy, authentic Masshole at August 16, 2012 06:32 PM (3SvjA)

180 Wow, I guess this means that Obama will try to win by ramping up the anger. Oh, sorry, I hear that connecting Obama with anger is racist. I denounce myself.

Posted by: nerdygirl at August 16, 2012 06:33 PM (mGEQs)

181

For example, I see no reason to list Ohio as 'leaning Romney' at this point.

Unfortunately, I would have to concur.

 

 

 

Now, now.  Stranger things have happened.  Like this poll.  Says here that Josh Mandel has pulled even with the odious Sherrod Brown.

 

http://bit.ly/R5ETbP

 

 

Posted by: RushBabe at August 16, 2012 06:33 PM (tQHzJ)

182 I was pulling for Rubio over Ryan specifically because of the hispanic votes.


Fuck 'em.  Barry's bought them anyway.  Any intelligent, thinking hispanics will take a look at Ryan.

Would love to be at Ryan and his mom's The Villages shindig this weekend.

Posted by: Jane D'oh at August 16, 2012 06:33 PM (UOM48)

183 Nope. If Brown wins Romney has a chance. But it is still unlikely. Trust me on this one. Barry will have to be in much, much, much worse shape than he is now for Romney to win here. Posted by: JackStraw at August 16, 2012 10:28 PM (TMB3S) Unlikely, yes, impossible no. I spent 50 years in MA and know it well. If the Boston clowns stay home and jerk off, Mitt could win. Here in CA, Mitt has zero chance.

Posted by: eman at August 16, 2012 06:33 PM (u3Rkr)

184 178 Did Walkers proposal include firefighters and Police, because that is where the pain came to Kasich.

Posted by: buzzion
.......
It did not. Teachers, state workers, etc.

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at August 16, 2012 10:27 PM (UTq/I)

 

Yeah that's kind of what I thought.  Sven is right that they need to have their funding controlled as well but its a harder sell to do, and you likely need some evidence that what you're doing has good results.  Such as going after the teachers unions and state workers.

Posted by: buzzion at August 16, 2012 06:33 PM (GULKT)

185 What the fuck is wrong with CO? Wasn't this at one time, in the not too distant past, a "red state." Has it been infiltrated by mexicans or something? I was there 2 weeks and a county commissioner in Ouray had a sign like 'For Colorado, not California'. So, Californians (and mexicans).

Posted by: @SCOAMT at August 16, 2012 06:33 PM (YlmX/)

186 "We need prominent Mex-Americans in leadership positions."

I remember the last batch. Corrupt as Ba'al himself...

Posted by: navybrat at August 16, 2012 06:34 PM (p5w0t)

187 182 Yep. Tancredo's vitriol didn't help. Even if I agree with him on some things.

Posted by: Infidel voting for America's R & R at August 16, 2012 06:34 PM (rkWzl)

188 My many coloured markers.

Posted by: the white board at August 16, 2012 06:35 PM (D7lJF)

189 Don't we have a mexican american governor speaking at the convention?

Posted by: buzzion at August 16, 2012 06:35 PM (GULKT)

190 Hispanics are voting Dem. It's the side where their bread is buttered.

The statistical average time it takes immigrant Hispanics from country entry and poor, to middle class is ~3 generations.  When they hit middle class their politics start to change.

What the Democrats have done is build themselves a demographic time bomb that explodes in their faces in a couple of generations.

Posted by: @PurpAv at August 16, 2012 06:35 PM (/RS2M)

191 "You're averaging polls over a month old and you call us absurd?"

Posted by: nickless at August 16, 2012 10:25 PM (MMC8r)

 

It's Summertime po-oh-olling,

It's polling in the Summertime. (It's Summertime!)

It's Summertime po-oh-olling,

My bammy, why can't you be mine?

Posted by: Mordecai and Rigby at August 16, 2012 06:37 PM (QjSgY)

192 Posted by: CJK at August 16, 2012 10:34 PM (XGZYX) Steiner! Where is Steiner?

Posted by: eman at August 16, 2012 06:37 PM (u3Rkr)

193 Meh, at the end of the day polls are interesting but watching what the campaigns and the candidates do is a lot more instructive. Ryan is starting off his events clowning Biden and Mitt is rocking the whiteboard while going right at Team Obama over Medicare, something no Republican has won on since ... ever. Barry is making 10 year old jokes about Romney's dog and Bidet is telling racist jokes when he's not drooling out his oatmeal after spending hundreds of millions on attack ads and not moving the dials while the economy slips closer to the abyss. Who do you think is winning?

Posted by: JackStraw at August 16, 2012 06:37 PM (TMB3S)

194 Highlighting racist affirmative action laws might help with the asian vote. Always a puzzle why asians vote for Dems who screw them over in college admissions. Asians have to score 300 points higher than blacks on the SAT to have the same odds of admission. Which is why they sign up for so many after school test preps. Of course, attacking racist affirmative action laws will hurt the hispanic vote since they benefit. We already lose the black vote by 90% so it can't make it any worse.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at August 16, 2012 06:37 PM (R+6Q+)

195 The medium term strategy is to find some right-wing Mex-Americans and make them the face of the party. I expect that will have to start happening shortly. And cubans Rubio and Ted Cruz don't count since most US hispanics are Mexican.

We need prominent Mex-Americans in leadership positions. Cause people are racist and tribal. Sucks, but it's true.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at August 16, 2012 10:32 PM (R+6Q+)



Quit worrying, that will happen. When the swag runs out what do you think will have more appeal? "Gimme Gimme Gimme, You didn't build that" or " I'm going to keep whats mine".

Posted by: cm9000 at August 16, 2012 06:38 PM (lzvtR)

196 141 Just learned on Fox tonight that Eric Boehlert with Media Matters went after the SEALs today.

Way to go, Dickless Wonder.

Posted by: Jane D'oh at August 16, 2012 10:15 PM (UOM4

LOL

Threadwinner

Posted by: AHFF at August 16, 2012 06:38 PM (Co70e)

197 Well not all immigrants are pro-Democrat. My wife is from Brazil. If she could vote, it would be Repub all the way. She sees how illegals get preferential treatment and that doesn't make her like the Dems magically. I don't think she will be a citizen in time for the election this time around though. Of course she's just a single vote but there are other, legal immigrants I know who never have been happy with the freebies given to those who didn't come in through the front door.

Posted by: arcadehero at August 16, 2012 06:38 PM (zt7SE)

198

If the Boston clowns stay home and jerk off, Mitt could win.

Big, big if. The GOP got clobbered in 2010, though. I think the locals sensed the wave and backlashed.

Posted by: fluffy at August 16, 2012 06:38 PM (3SvjA)

199 It annoys me that my current state of CO is blue.  At least it is light blue but I don't trust these dopes to reject the JEF.   Maybe if the nation comes to its senses but this state stays dumb I should move.

Posted by: PaleRider at August 16, 2012 06:39 PM (dkExz)

200 Things have deteriorated to such an extent that we actually need a coup simply to survive. I'm not even kidding. How else are we going to keep this up 20 years down the line? We can't. It's not mathematically possible. More minorities = more democrats. Once the white vote drops under 60 percent it's over. America will be lost. Forever.

Posted by: CJK at August 16, 2012 10:34 PM (XGZYX)

 

My gawd, you're one droopy moby.

Posted by: 66chevelle at August 16, 2012 06:39 PM (QjSgY)

201 207 It annoys me that my current state of CO is blue.

----------

Could be worse. I live in a conservative part of CA.

Posted by: Anachronda at August 16, 2012 06:40 PM (1c58W)

202

If Virginia goes blue, then we'd have 269 to 269.

 

Attended a county Repub mtg in VA last night for George Allen and an incumbent congress critter.  Enthusiasm and attendance was off the frackin' charts.  (Though lots of people passed on Romney yard signs and bumper stickers; they wanted the new-and-improved Romney/Ryan editions!)

Posted by: RushBabe at August 16, 2012 06:40 PM (tQHzJ)

203

@71 

Or as we like to call 'em around these parts- Californicators.

I predict CO goes 52/48 Romnet. Agree that there is very little enthusiasm for the incumbent ticket, lot's of smoldering burn to get to the polls and vote R/R (R). I'm still waiting for a pollster to ask me my opinion- ain't happened yet. I'm still trying to figure out why Obama came to western Colorado last week, there aren't enough Dems over here to scratch each other's backs.

Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at August 16, 2012 06:40 PM (hgSh3)

204 CJK, does Soros pay you in Deutsche marks or confiscated Jew gold?

Posted by: nickless at August 16, 2012 06:41 PM (MMC8r)

205 I don't know where this myth of the poor Democrats voting against the greedy Republican originates. It is a myth, at least where I live. Republicans here are blue collar, working class while all of the wealthy Democrats live in the gated communities and are lawyers and administrators, all well connected, all with government pensions and 401k accounts and even off shore accounts.

It is patent bullshit.

Posted by: navybrat at August 16, 2012 06:41 PM (p5w0t)

206 Posted by: CJK at August 16, 2012 10:40 PM (XGZYX) Have had enough of this asshole?

Posted by: eman at August 16, 2012 06:42 PM (u3Rkr)

207 There's no evidence that 3rd generation Mex-Americans trend Republican. I can't find the data at the moment, but the data I've seen show 3rd generation Mex-Americans are just as solidly Democrat as their parents and grandparents.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at August 16, 2012 06:42 PM (R+6Q+)

208 Also, in CO- way fewer Obama bumper stickers and yard signs. Even seeing Subarus with Romney stickers, go figure.

Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at August 16, 2012 06:42 PM (hgSh3)

209 Will no one rid me of this bigoted Moby?

Posted by: Henry MCMXLVIII at August 16, 2012 06:42 PM (bxiXv)

210
Always a puzzle why asians vote for Dems
Posted by: Flatbush Joe




First generation immigrant parents work hard and send their kids to college, which indoctrinates the kids in lefty good think and racial butt-hurt.

Ratchet ever leftward with each following generation.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at August 16, 2012 06:43 PM (kdS6q)

211 VA is weak blue, not weak pink. Population growth in NoVA (esp. Arlington Co.) will outstrip voter turnout up and down I-81. Our governor McDonnell is popular, and if he can seriously shake the tree here he's good for votes (and god knows we're getting plenty of advertising from both sides already), but for now, any assessment that puts VA in Romney's column--even weakly--is probably wishful thinking. Lived here for the last thirty years. Never thought I'd see a Democrat win my Virginia. Then again, I never thought I'd have to be trilingual to order dinner out in large areas of NoVA.

Posted by: General Zod at August 16, 2012 06:43 PM (2+bRt)

212 Oops, Romnet = Romney- damned numb index finger slipped over a key!

Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at August 16, 2012 06:43 PM (hgSh3)

213

PaleRider - I agree.  It's getting bad.  Denver and Boulder are taking over.  May be time to move to the Hill Country.

Posted by: Infidel voting for America's R & R at August 16, 2012 06:44 PM (rkWzl)

214

A year might have started to temper the out come in Ohio from the SB5 negative vote last year.

 

Kasich's policies are having an effect. Unemployment in Ohio is dropping, although it's not a landslide.  Will people notice?

 

Ohio unions were more organized than in Wisconsin in opposing SB5.  Wisconsin got a tremendous amount of airplay because of the outrageous behavior, but the big unions (AFL-CIO and UAW) put a lot of money into supporting AFSCME and SEIU union demonstrations and activities to vote down SB5. They were more controlled and disciplined in their messaging.

There were a lot of Republicans that opposed it also ( a lot being 5-10% of the total electorate).

 

Obama is NOT popular in Ohio, and the more he campaigns here, the more it will remind people why they don't like him.  The Democrats have been running a lot of negative adds for weeks, and people are going to get sick of it.

Romney has to be upbeat and positive in his campaign in Ohio.  I think Ryan in particular will be very appealing in Ohio.  He's from Wisconsin, went to college in Ohio and he looks like "one of us".  Is that a dog whistle?

Posted by: Reader C.J. Burch writes..... at August 16, 2012 06:44 PM (sJTmU)

215 @211 - is that you, John Derbyshire?  Of course not, silly me.  For all his faults, Derb was at least an entertaining writer.

Posted by: StPatrick_TN at August 16, 2012 06:44 PM (lJJMb)

216 "Always a puzzle why asians vote for Dems who screw them over in college admissions."
When affirmative action is explained to them, asians tend to turn against it at a rather significant clip. They figure out in a hurry it means "my kids can't get into college."
Its just a question of getting the word out. The more minorities understand that Democrats don't want their kids to get educational opportunities, the worse they'll do with minorities.
Black moms: you want your kids out of those craptastic inner city schools? Don't vote Democrat. Obama himself keeps trying to end the program in Washington DC.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 16, 2012 06:44 PM (r4wIV)

217 " It isn't their fault, it's our fault for not defending the racial integrity of this nation."
I'm beginning to see why people say you're a fan of Hitler.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 16, 2012 06:45 PM (r4wIV)

218 Conservatives didn't want to seek teaching positions because they would be surrounded by wacky liberals. This is what historians refer to as "a mistake." Now, you can't get in if you want to, which is a pretty big hint as to the liberals' intentions.

Posted by: Merovign, Dark Lord of the Sith at August 16, 2012 06:46 PM (bxiXv)

219 Nite all!

Posted by: Infidel voting for America's R & R at August 16, 2012 06:47 PM (rkWzl)

220 I'm beginning to see why people say you're a fan of Hitler. Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 16, 2012 10:45 PM (r4wIV) You should see his collection of Camp Guard action figures.

Posted by: eman at August 16, 2012 06:47 PM (u3Rkr)

221 I'm beginning to see why people say you're a fan of Hitler. Perhaps you didn't see his happy-talk under the name 'Nationalist.'

Posted by: nickless at August 16, 2012 06:47 PM (MMC8r)

222 Not all students fall for ivory tower lefty BS.  My daughter got her PhD at Duke, moaning for six years about the lefty professors. Now, they have named their first daughter "Reagan".  There's hope for that generation.

Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at August 16, 2012 06:48 PM (hgSh3)

223
When affirmative action is explained to them, asians tend to turn against it at a rather significant clip. They figure out in a hurry it means "my kids can't get into college."

Posted by: Christopher Taylor




Have to disagree.  What I see is Asian heavy areas like Orange County shifting left and increasing agitation by Asians for payday minority status and silly bitching about "model minority" discrimination.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at August 16, 2012 06:49 PM (kdS6q)

224 If Carney doesnt call Wilder and apologize, the turnout in Richmond will not exceed 08, and Romney will take Virginia.

Posted by: Jean at August 16, 2012 06:49 PM (X6eYN)

225 On the off-chance that you are not a moby CJK, just be aware that race-IQ talk is a bannable offense around here. That's not a joke. Ace has been abundantly clear on this point and will happily ban you if you keep it up. I'd strongly suggest to just stop.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at August 16, 2012 06:50 PM (R+6Q+)

226 Gone in a puff of smoke. Oddly appropriate.

Posted by: toby928© at August 16, 2012 06:51 PM (QupBk)

227 >>If Carney doesnt call Wilder and apologize, the turnout in Richmond will not exceed 08, and Romney will take Virginia. Now that is an interesting angle. Obama's press secretary being accused by a black guy of being insensitive. I gotta go check my dog and see if he's sleeping with the neighbor's cat.

Posted by: JackStraw at August 16, 2012 06:52 PM (TMB3S)

228 Asians get screwed by the diversity nazis in college admissions, but can get on the diversity gravy train in corporate and government hiring. An asian friend of mine got a special minority hire gig right out of college at a very prestigious media outlet. And at high-tech companies like Google and Apple -- asians and gays are all the have to brag about diversity-wise since they hire a minuscule # of blacks and hispanics.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at August 16, 2012 06:55 PM (R+6Q+)

229 "First generation immigrant parents work hard and send their kids to college, which indoctrinates the kids in lefty good think and racial butt-hurt.

Ratchet ever leftward with each following generation."

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at August 16, 2012 10:43 PM (kdS6q)

 

Ain't that the trith. Also "Asian" means "Chinese" for the most part, so they already came here with a statist mentality.  And many of those came here and worked hard studying in American schools, so they only had their statist mentality reinforced.  My wife is Chinese and her BIL is a professor.  BIL's son went to Stanford and is a finance whiz in Chicago now.  How he can spout the lefty stuff he does is a mystery to me.  

 

Posted by: 66chevelle at August 16, 2012 06:55 PM (QjSgY)

230 196, I want Romney to put the hammer down, swing thru NY and NJ like he has the numbers there.

Posted by: Jean at August 16, 2012 06:56 PM (X6eYN)

231 This is a big f'ckin deal!

Posted by: Kaitian at August 16, 2012 06:58 PM (itBUs)

232 this map is pure wingnuttery. Paul Ryan has ensured that this will be a Goldwater landslide defeat, and you'll wish you listened to the Canadian Voice of Reason. Now if you'll 'scuse me, I have to write another article explaining why I'm still a Republican.

Posted by: David Frum at August 16, 2012 06:59 PM (8HhF2)

233 128, I mentioned it months ago, but there were some guys going around DC pimping some nbers that showed NY in play this cycle.

Posted by: Jean at August 16, 2012 06:59 PM (X6eYN)

234 What does "moby" mean?

Posted by: andrew at August 16, 2012 06:59 PM (65QIv)

235 The Richmond turnout doesn't have to exceed '08, though it probably will--VA will be won or lost north of Stafford. Doug Wilder hasn't meant much to VA politics since he was the beta Obama or whatever back when. Now that his Richmond slavery museum has filed bankruptcy and he's not returning stuff to patrons, he's even less relevant. Having said that, your point is well taken--the guy gets seriously man-strual when his ring is not kissed, and he'll likely whine about Biden's comment no end.

Posted by: General Zod at August 16, 2012 06:59 PM (2+bRt)

236 I don't think people get sick of negative ads, nor should anyone underestimate the stupidity of buckeye voters. On the bright side, the GOP doesn't need Ohio this year.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at August 16, 2012 06:59 PM (i330i)

237 hey, I'm not a racist. If anything I'm an Asian IQ supremacist.

Posted by: Charles Murray at August 16, 2012 07:00 PM (8HhF2)

238 @239, yes we do. Lose it and we lose by 1 fucking electoral point. Nevada will go Romney since there's the Mormon vote there.

Posted by: Kaitian at August 16, 2012 07:01 PM (itBUs)

239 That brief froms the basis of my drinking/fireworks trigger for election night: If the networks call VA for Romney, before they can call NY for Obama, the candle gets lit, the bubbly comes out.

Posted by: Jean at August 16, 2012 07:02 PM (X6eYN)

240 237 What does "moby" mean? Posted by: andrew at August 16, 2012 10:59 PM (65QIv) Musician "Moby" proposed to leftists that they should post offensive messages on the internet while impersonating conservatives, to discredit them. The practice has been named after him, as a reminder of what a fucking douchebag he is.

Posted by: Merovign, Dark Lord of the Sith at August 16, 2012 07:02 PM (bxiXv)

241 @228, can you explain the whole Race-IQ thing if it's okay? I don't know anything about that.

Posted by: Kaitian at August 16, 2012 07:04 PM (itBUs)

242 Zod, No. Virginia breaks on AA turnout in the Tidewater and Richmond. BarryO needs his 08 number or better. Between 22% unemployment, gay marriage, and Mittens talking about building ships like Teddy Roosevelt, he was hurting in the Tidewater. Now Wilder will pout and Richmond will go to sleep. NOVA will always vote heavy, it didnt matter in 10, because the AA didnt post for the redneck dim.

Posted by: Jean at August 16, 2012 07:08 PM (X6eYN)

243 NM, OR and MN are 100% not in play. NV has turned blue, but it's not hopeless. Posted by: toldyaso at August 16, 2012 09:38 PM (ltZ2R) Nevada is in play. GOP turn-out over Dems in the primary and NV02 election was HUGE. The Dems registration advantage has falled by over half since 2008 and continues to fall. Despite Reid winnin in '10 (due to compination of horrible opponent and cashing in all the favors from the casinos he had), Reid's son was defeated for Gov. by double digits AND the GOP received more votes for the Assembly then the Dems did. The numbers have gotten better since then. To boot, the GOP in Washoe County (home of Reno) is competent and Washoe has always been the key to winning statewide in Nevada.

Posted by: The Political Hat at August 16, 2012 07:09 PM (sZTYJ)

244 "Have to disagree. What I see is Asian heavy areas like Orange County shifting left and increasing agitation by Asians for payday minority status and silly bitching about "model minority" discrimination."
Well what I was pointing out is that when they are informed about what affirmative action means (my kids get skipped for college) they turn against it. For what its worth there's been a study on the topic, and while asians support affirmative action initially, when they are told how it works... they change their minds.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 16, 2012 07:12 PM (r4wIV)

245 The n***erazation of America. Posted by: Turde' at August 16, 2012 09:40 PM (baHgn) Naggerazation???

Posted by: The Political Hat at August 16, 2012 07:15 PM (sZTYJ)

246 What the fuck is wrong with CO? Wasn't this at one time, in the not too distant past, a "red state." Has it been infiltrated by mexicans or something? Posted by: Fred Dead Head Bed at August 16, 2012 09:48 PM (m+q3/) Sí, Señor

Posted by: Slowpoke Rodriguez at August 16, 2012 07:18 PM (sZTYJ)

247 Musician "Moby" proposed to leftists that they should post offensive messages on the internet while impersonating conservatives, to discredit them.

The practice has been named after him, as a reminder of what a fucking douchebag he is.


Thanks.

That is some serious douchebaggery.  What a tool.

Posted by: andrew at August 16, 2012 07:25 PM (65QIv)

248 >>Richmond will go to sleep<< I'd be surprised. I hope you're right.

Posted by: General Zod at August 16, 2012 07:27 PM (2+bRt)

249 Might as well put WA as the darkest blue. There is an initiative to legalize pot that will get high (turn out) for Obama.

Posted by: Wodun at August 16, 2012 07:59 PM (PEpU8)

250 pocket full of truth

Posted by: crazy at August 16, 2012 08:25 PM (D7lJF)

251 If it weren't for teh surf, I would so move outta so cal

Posted by: Let God be your Gardener at August 16, 2012 08:26 PM (jBnIW)

252

Oh & jan do

Bring the hate!

Place is yours.

Freedom is a good nights' sleep.

etc,,,,,

Posted by: crazy at August 16, 2012 08:28 PM (D7lJF)

253

swim in clean water,

take a unscripted dive.

Posted by: forever free at August 16, 2012 08:30 PM (D7lJF)

254 n

Posted by: forever free at August 16, 2012 08:31 PM (D7lJF)

255 Things are slipping away... who can we pander to next? Oh... hello, amnesty! Glad you could make it.

Posted by: skinnydipinacid at August 16, 2012 09:04 PM (zEPqG)

256 How about the decision by that federal judge yesterday to leave the Voter ID law in place. Doesn't that change the PA partisan turnout model?

Posted by: motionview at August 16, 2012 09:15 PM (i+DU3)

257 "Just learned on Fox tonight that Eric Boehlert with Media Matters went after the SEALs today.

Way to go, Dickless Wonder."

I miss Andrew Breitbart's stinging and besting Boehlert at every turn as no one else could.   

Posted by: Sojourner56 at August 16, 2012 09:36 PM (4jXrB)

258 @ 134:  "Long time lurker poking in to note that, at least in Grand Rapids, the GOP is definitely committed to getting both Obama and Stabenow out..The level of attendance/enthusiasm at tonight's GOP county convention was apparently out of the ordinary (My first time as a precinct delegate, so I can't say for sure based on my experience)."

Kudos to you Dave.  Oh, and old stuff I know, but that GR American Pie video was the best!

Posted by: Sojourner56 at August 16, 2012 09:39 PM (4jXrB)

259 ryan/west 2012

Posted by: allen west at August 16, 2012 10:25 PM (D7lJF)

260 Posted by: Wodun at August 16, 2012 11:59 PM (PEpU

That pot legalization measure will probably end up failing. The gay marriage bullshit will bring out the religious folks here too. Here's hoping Mckenna wins!

Posted by: NWConservative at August 16, 2012 11:04 PM (M1gmo)

261 pretty colours....

Posted by: good luck america at August 16, 2012 11:29 PM (D7lJF)

262 209 Posted by: CJK at August 16, 2012 10:40 PM (XGZYX) Have had enough of this asshole? Posted by: eman Yep. Several days ago.

Posted by: backhoe at August 17, 2012 01:31 AM (ULH4o)

263 I ran out of Vitalis.

Posted by: PaulRyansHair at August 17, 2012 02:46 AM (tj0dr)

264 Can Team Obama start panicking now?

Posted by: Evil Blogger Lady at August 17, 2012 05:33 AM (XkmMw)

265 What polls are you using, Rasmussen?

Posted by: Xasteius at August 17, 2012 06:09 AM (ITrRD)

266 I have a fever ... and the only cure is more red!

Posted by: eevenye at August 17, 2012 07:30 AM (Jdvjv)

267 I am sooooo happy to see my state of Arizona finally RED on someone's map. We have experienced an influx of vehicles with liberal state plates on them and that frightens me! I can deal with the idiots from mexifornia who've moved here but there's more and more from ohio, illinois, oregon, michigan and nevada...all intentionally left small letters...I have absolutely NO respect for these ignorant fools!! They come here to escape liberalism and then continue to vote stupid!!!

Posted by: Carole at August 17, 2012 06:43 PM (0EHd7)

Posted by: Jeffery at August 18, 2012 06:14 AM (Vb+Z0)

269 A fantasy world you are living in. This isn't even close to being accurate. Right now the President stands to get at least 284 EV if not break the 300 mark.

Posted by: Martini at August 21, 2012 03:46 AM (pfwpu)

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