Ace of Spades HQ

May 10, 2012

AP Poll With 49% Democratic Sample Finds Obama at 50% Support
— Ace

49% Democrat = 50% voting for Obama.

37% Republican = 42% voting for Romney.

Why not poll 58% Democrats and start padding that lead?

Meanwhile, for the third day running, Gallup's poll of registered voters (not even likely voters) has Romney up over Obama 47-44. The seven day sample has taken almost all of the swinginess out of the poll. Before the 47-44, I think it was 46-45 Romney for a couple of days.

Very close, but two things: It's registered voters, which gooses the Democrat numbers by 3-4%, and Romney is just beginning his general election campaign-- Obama's been doing his for a year (or more, depending on how you count).

Posted by: Ace at 09:10 AM | Comments (78)
Post contains 136 words, total size 1 kb.

1 Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable tyrant.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at May 10, 2012 09:11 AM (8y9MW)

2 49% Democrat

Okay, that's pathetic. Oversample, much?

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at May 10, 2012 09:12 AM (8y9MW)

3 There are no busted margins, and this is not a CAC post. I do not trust it!

Posted by: tsrblke at May 10, 2012 09:12 AM (22rSN)

4 I agree.. but without knowing their model, you do not know if it compensates for that variance. I doubt it though when it helps Obama.

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at May 10, 2012 09:13 AM (f9c2L)

5 It's registered voters, which gooses the Democrat numbers by 3-4%

-------------------------

Shouldn't we factor in the goosed Dem voters padding of RVs as a baseline for the coming fraudstorm?

Posted by: Lady in Black at May 10, 2012 09:17 AM (iOgbD)

6 Polls are for beating the gays.

Posted by: Mitt Fucking Romney at May 10, 2012 09:19 AM (Sh42X)

From now on, when referring to Romney I recommend we call him Mitt "Scissors" Romney. Gives him an edge (no pun intended but gleefully implied).

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit and ABO supporter [/i][/b] at May 10, 2012 09:20 AM (4df7R)

8 I'm curious how much Barry will drop after coming out.

Posted by: toby928© at May 10, 2012 09:20 AM (NG097)

9 There are no busted margins, and this is not a CAC post. I do not trust it!

As well you shouldn't.

If there is no map, we will not fap!!

Posted by: fluffy at May 10, 2012 09:20 AM (z9HTb)

10 You can smell the desperation. Quite pathetic. Wait until Aug/Sept. Is noon too early to start drinking?

Posted by: Infidel at May 10, 2012 09:20 AM (O/fK8)

11 I say we beat Dog Eater bad and kill off the left until 2035.

Posted by: @ParisParamus at May 10, 2012 09:20 AM (1jx78)

12 I got a call on my cell phone yesterday from a 'political polling firm'. .....It went to voicemail, I was away from my phone. ....I thought it was illegal for companies to do soliciting on cell phone numbers?

Posted by: wheatie at May 10, 2012 09:20 AM (g4NO6)

13 I don't know ace, with these new revelations of Romney's sartorial terrorism as a young man I think Obama is going to win by a hair!

Posted by: joncelli, too stressed by half at May 10, 2012 09:20 AM (RD7QR)

I'm looking forward to my same-sex bounce. George is too.

Posted by: Darwin Obama Jr. at May 10, 2012 09:21 AM (c3mby)

15 TONSORIAL terrorism, which is even cooler.

Posted by: joncelli, too stressed by half at May 10, 2012 09:22 AM (RD7QR)

16 12 I say we beat Dog Eater bad and kill off the left until 2035.

Posted by: @ParisParamus at May 10, 2012 01:20 PM (1jx7

I want to send them home crying to hide in their parents' basement until they're old and gray.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit and ABO supporter [/i][/b] at May 10, 2012 09:22 AM (4df7R)

17 Almost a shame CAC gave Gerg the bum's rush. I would enjoy seeing his pug nose rubbed in this.

Posted by: maddogg at May 10, 2012 09:23 AM (OlN4e)

18 It's still months away from election day. .....But I am actually hoping that the polls don't show Romney winning by a landslide.....because it could make a lot of people stay home, thinking that Romney has got it made without their vote.

Posted by: wheatie at May 10, 2012 09:24 AM (g4NO6)

49% Democrat = 50% voting for Obama.

37% Republican = 42% voting for Romney.

So even in this fake poll, Romney basically wins every independent.

Posted by: The Q at May 10, 2012 09:24 AM (LnQhT)

IIRC when Mondale ran against Reagan he received 41% of the popular vote even though the polls showed him close.

Hell, newsweak had him up 18 points at one point. We might see history made in November.

Posted by: Velvet Ambition at May 10, 2012 09:24 AM (mFxQX)

It all makes sense Ace, the missing 13% are dead voters they couldn't poll.

Posted by: Heralder at May 10, 2012 09:25 AM (+xmn4)

22 All polls that do not show Romney ahead = heavily favors Democrats/liberal pollsters/people who don't want to go for Romney because they don't want to be seen as racist. All polls that show Romney ahead = Check out them apples!/Obama's done for!/This pollsters always been reliable and even-handed, so it must be so! Am I getting it, cons?

Posted by: StanleyJ at May 10, 2012 09:27 AM (Lz+QC)

23 Do any of these articles ever point out that an incumbent should obviously be higher than that?

Posted by: laceyunderalls at May 10, 2012 09:27 AM (pLTLS)

Posted by: Heralder at May 10, 2012 01:25 PM (+xmn4)

Thats a lot closer to truth than we want to believe

Posted by: Velvet Ambition at May 10, 2012 09:27 AM (mFxQX)

25 With Dicks in, all 6 WA congressional Democrats favor repeal of gay-marriage ban
http://bit.ly/JgB1Dd [Seattle Times, safe aside from the play on words]

Posted by: Underground Vulgarian at May 10, 2012 09:27 AM (oipCQ)

26 When did Obama ever stop campaigning? He's been running non-stop since 2004.

Posted by: Payaso at May 10, 2012 09:28 AM (vTFnf)

27 Ok assholes. If you are married and you don't have kids, you are basically going out. So yeah. The difference between having kids and not having kids is the difference between flying an airplane and going to the moon. So The ghays who want to marry. Whatever. You're not really married until you have kids. And to the lesbos who turkey baste each other. Fuck you. Fuck you really. You selfish bitches. Intentionally bringing a child into this world without a father is an incredibly dickhead move. If you want kids, do what every other mom does. Suck a dick. If you can't suck dick, then don't have kids.

Posted by: Nutmeg Moron at May 10, 2012 09:28 AM (Vg4Vv)

28 Am I getting it, cons?

Posted by: StanleyJ at May 10, 2012 01:27 PM (Lz+QC)

Yes, and it is going to get even better

Posted by: Velvet Ambition at May 10, 2012 09:29 AM (mFxQX)

29 I would have preferred to note that Average Joe sucks cock by choice on the preceding thread but whatchagonnado.

Posted by: toby928© at May 10, 2012 09:29 AM (NG097)

30 Am I getting it, cons?

No, f*ckwad. You're obviously not getting it.

Unless you really think there's a 12 percentage point advantage in Democrat registration. In which case you're even dumber than Joe "CHOKWIT ICE CWEAM!" Biden (ht: EoJ).

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at May 10, 2012 09:29 AM (8y9MW)

31 Am I getting it, cons? Posted by: StanleyJ at May 10, 2012 01:27 PM (Lz+QC) ********** Oh you've been getting it-Stanley. Right in your wallet. (wait..you're probably in the "taker column"--never mind.)

Posted by: tasker at May 10, 2012 09:30 AM (r2PLg)

32 Wonder how well those "I Support Obama's Gay Marriage Personal Feelings" t-shirts are selling in the North Carolina black community.

Posted by: t-bird at May 10, 2012 09:30 AM (FcR7P)

33 So what confuses me about this issue is when did America become bigoted? Were we bigoted yesterday when we agreed with Obama when he was lying about his support of traditional marriage? Or are we bigoted today when we disagree with Lord Obama's position?

Posted by: Mr Pink at May 10, 2012 09:30 AM (o8SQr)

34 If you want kids, do what every other mom does. Suck a dick. If you can't suck dick, then don't have kids. Posted by: Nutmeg Moron at May 10, 2012 01:28 PM (Vg4Vv) **************** That's really not going to work either.

Posted by: tasker at May 10, 2012 09:32 AM (r2PLg)

35 If you want kids, do what every other mom does. Suck a dick. If you can't suck dick, then don't have kids. Posted by: Nutmeg Moron at May 10, 2012 01:28 PM (Vg4Vv) **************** That's really not going to work either. Posted by: tasker at May 10, 2012 01:32 PM (r2PLg) Yeah but hell if you find a women so stupid she believes it, man it's heaven on earth!

Posted by: nevergiveup at May 10, 2012 09:33 AM (i6RpT)

36
Posted by: Nutmeg Moron at May 10, 2012 01:28 PM (Vg4Vv)

You must have an interesting marriage...

Posted by: joncelli, too stressed by half at May 10, 2012 09:34 AM (RD7QR)

37 All polls that do not show Romney ahead = heavily favors Democrats/liberal pollsters/people who don't want to go for Romney because they don't want to be seen as racist.

Am I getting it, cons?

Posted by: StanleyJ at May 10, 2012 01:27 PM (Lz+QC)

Hey, I know we laugh about how no one reads the posts around here, but seriously, it's what, 10 lines? Come on.

Let me summarize - Sample: 49% Democrat / 37% Republican.

Let me do the math here ... carry the 1 ... = bullshit.

Posted by: Heralder at May 10, 2012 09:35 AM (+xmn4)

38 Ace, Check out the Reuters-Ipsos poll of "adults" from a couple of days ago that shows Obama up by seven. It also utilizes a sample that heavily favors Total Democrats vs. Total Republicans, 47 - 38: http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=11610

Posted by: Reno_Dave at May 10, 2012 09:35 AM (OL4L4)

39 I'm guessing the polling firm assumed the Obama Justice Department (the most transparent evah!) is going to supress a lot of Romney voters. Might as well build that into the polling now...

Posted by: David of PA at May 10, 2012 09:36 AM (HUxtO)

40 If you want kids, do what every other mom does. Suck a dick. If you can't suck dick, then don't have kids.

Posted by: Nutmeg Moron at May 10, 2012 01:28 PM (Vg4Vv)

---------

If this is how babies are made.....then gay guys would be causing a population explosion.

Posted by: wheatie at May 10, 2012 09:36 AM (g4NO6)

41 100% of Ms Choksondik thinks Barry is a SCOAMF.

Posted by: Ms Choksondik at May 10, 2012 09:37 AM (fYOZx)

42 So if my math is right, Romney wins!

Posted by: MostlyRight at May 10, 2012 09:37 AM (ZG8Ti)

43 Good editorial by Rand Paul linked @ my nic.

Posted by: maddogg at May 10, 2012 09:38 AM (OlN4e)

44
The shock on Election Day will be that much sweeter.

#AskMichelle what are you going to do with all the unused champagne?

Posted by: the new, improved arhooley -- now with 10% more cynicism! at May 10, 2012 09:38 AM (v0fEw)

45 21 It all makes sense Ace, the missing 13% are dead voters they couldn't poll. Posted by: Heralder at May 10, 2012 01:25 PM (+xmn4) We're working feverishly on that with your tax dollars!

Posted by: Dept of Dead Democrat Voter Re-Animation at May 10, 2012 09:39 AM (fYOZx)

46 >>>If this is how babies are made.....then gay guys would be causing a population explosion. They are, but the kids look like shit.

Posted by: Dr. Varno at May 10, 2012 09:40 AM (gP9mY)

47 #AskMichelle what are you going to do with all the unused champagne? Posted by: the new, improved arhooley -- now with 10% more cynicism! at May 10, 2012 01:38 PM (v0fEw Bathe in it like every other day, you filthy pleb!

Posted by: The Mooch at May 10, 2012 09:41 AM (fYOZx)

48 >>Is noon too early to start drinking?

My family reunions tap the first keg at 8 a.m.

Posted by: HeatherRadish at May 10, 2012 09:42 AM (hO8IJ)

49 The Media is the real enemy. They never get unelected.

Posted by: Shiggz RocketSurgeon at May 10, 2012 09:42 AM (RfvTE)

50 Bathe in it like every other day, you filthy pleb!Posted by: The Mooch

Because America's plumb run out of virgin blood?

Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at May 10, 2012 09:43 AM (ebPtk)

51 Nutmeg, please keep the trolling to the appropriate threads. Thanks in advance.

Posted by: MostlyRight at May 10, 2012 09:43 AM (ZG8Ti)

52 I ain't voting for Mitt unless he cuts my hair...

Posted by: The Robot Devil at May 10, 2012 09:44 AM (136wp)

Turnout PVI will be EVEN to D+3 at best for the Democrats.

The Rs are no longer demoralized, registration of young and minority voters is off considerably from 2008, and even Democratic registration is down. Republicans have regained the advantage in IA and CO by adding 200,000 Rs between those states. Republican registration is booming in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

So polling showing D+anything approaching 2008, or in this laughable case, doubling that, is horseshit.

That doesnt mean things are gravy for Romney in the least. He still trails Obama in Ohio, Virginia is being stubborn, and he needs to work hard to make Obama work hard in Wisconsin Colorado and Michigan.

But the troll above wheezing that we are being selective by rejecting a D+12 poll, riddle me this- if a poll came out showing R+12 and Romney beating Obama by 10, you wouldn't question that at all, right? Nothing suspicious? Everything hunky-dory? Of course you'd rage against it, because that isn't the goddamn electorate. You can't have shit both ways.

btw, Ace, where is the big map?

Posted by: CAC at May 10, 2012 09:44 AM (0PRR2)

54 49 The Media is the real enemy. They never get unelected. Posted by: Shiggz RocketSurgeon at May 10, 2012 01:42 PM (RfvTE) They get devalued. Newsweek was sold for $1. And that was more than it was worth...

Posted by: The Robot Devil at May 10, 2012 09:45 AM (136wp)

>>My family reunions tap the first keg at 8 a.m.

Cool, two days in one. Get trashed by 2 take a nap and start all over again. May have to take that up if Barky gets reelected.

Posted by: Infidel at May 10, 2012 09:45 AM (O/fK8)

Whats really intersting to me is the constant UNDERrepresentation of the Independent/nonaffiliated vote.

In States like Colorado, those voters are almost 1/3 of the electorate... and this poll shows 86% participation in the two major parties?

Posted by: Romeo13 at May 10, 2012 09:45 AM (lZBBB)

57 When the likely-voter polls get to 52% R (ohpleaseplease) then we'll see DOJ float some trial balloons about polling places in swing states needing Federal oversight.

I would hope this administration would not go for the full-on Hugo Chavez electoral model, but if there were any administration since, oh, George Washington who might try it, this would be the one.

Posted by: JEM at May 10, 2012 09:46 AM (o+SC1)

58
But Intrade has Obama up by 20%!!!!!!

mornin' jackwagons

Posted by: In before the troll at May 10, 2012 09:47 AM (ofIpS)

59 The real numbers must be horrible for them to have dusted off the gay/rape of the lock story this early. They could have waited until much later for that one.

Posted by: Jean at May 10, 2012 09:47 AM (WkuV6)

60 "If you are married and you don't have kids, you are basically going out." What religion says this?

Posted by: Lampshade at May 10, 2012 09:48 AM (lkdo/)

61 >>>So if my math is right, Romney wins!

Extra-racist math.

Posted by: HeatherRadish at May 10, 2012 09:48 AM (hO8IJ)

62 and he needs to work hard to make Obama work hard in Wisconsin Colorado and Michigan.

Not sure about Colorado, but I'm pretty dad-gum sure (via my in-laws in MI) that he doesn't need to work very hard in MI, and, if the Walker Recall is any indication, he won't have to work very hard in WI, either.

Maybe not in Detroit proper, but virtually everywhere else in MI (supposedly including the college towns) people are finally waking up to what a half-century of D governance has done to their State.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) SMOD 2012 at May 10, 2012 09:49 AM (8y9MW)

63 "You're not really married until you have kids. " I don't know of that religion

Posted by: Lampshade at May 10, 2012 09:49 AM (lkdo/)

64 "If you are married and you don't have kids, you are basically going out." What religion says this? Posted by: Lampshade at May 10, 2012 01:48 PM (lkdo/) The religion of life

Posted by: nevergiveup at May 10, 2012 09:50 AM (i6RpT)

65 Do they provide enough data to rerun it at D+3?

Posted by: Jean at May 10, 2012 09:50 AM (WkuV6)

66 Obama is up by 60 points in the last poll we did. The poll was 80% bleached blond gay guys who had at least 1 bad hair cut in their lives though.

Posted by: MSBNC at May 10, 2012 09:50 AM (Q1lie)

67 The religion of life=no religion

Posted by: Lampshade at May 10, 2012 09:51 AM (lkdo/)

68 Am I getting it, cons?

Posted by: StanleyJ at May 10, 2012 01:27 PM (Lz+QC)

Piss off douchcanoe!

Posted by: Hedgehog at May 10, 2012 09:51 AM (3jGS1)

27 So God created man in his own image, in the image of God created he him; male and female created he them.

28 And God blessed them, and God said unto them, Be fruitful, and multiply, and replenish the earth, and subdue it: and have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the fowl of the air, and over every living thing that moveth upon the earth.

--Genesis 1:27-28

And, I denounce myself, since I am not following this commandment either.

Posted by: Anonymous Coward at May 10, 2012 09:54 AM (eOVyl)

70 ummm is anyone else getting the Barrett for Governor ads on the front page? HAHAHAHAHA

Posted by: jc at May 10, 2012 09:55 AM (9LWMI)

71 Just one cotton pickin' minute (I denounce myself) I was told there would be no MATH on this here blog.

Posted by: mpfs at May 10, 2012 09:55 AM (iYbLN)

72 70 ... and have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the fowl of the air, and over every living thing that moveth upon the earth.--Genesis 1:27-28And, I denounce myself, since I am not following this commandment either. Posted by: Anonymous Coward at May 10, 2012 01:54 PM (eOVyl) Just don't take any crap from the fish. Be the Head Fish and then you will get dominion. If that don't work try dropping a plugged-in radio in the tank..

Posted by: The Robot Devil at May 10, 2012 09:57 AM (136wp)

73 ... and have dominion over... every living thing that moveth upon the earth.--Genesis 1:27-28 Yeah, good luck with that.

Posted by: Cats at May 10, 2012 10:01 AM (FcR7P)

74 And now, an update from the Major League Polling Association...

In the quarterfinals match, AP puts an impressive D+12 on the board, a strong response from Reuters' recent D+9 sample. But the ball is now in Reuters' court -- can they retake the lead?!

Posted by: Uncledave at May 10, 2012 10:02 AM (nJ32z)

75 74 ... and have dominion over... every living thing that moveth upon the earth.--Genesis 1:27-28 Yeah, good luck with that. Posted by: Cats at May 10, 2012 02:01 PM (FcR7P) Seconded

Posted by: Little Yipping Handbag Dogs at May 10, 2012 10:02 AM (136wp)

76 11 I got a call on my cell phone yesterday from a 'political polling firm'. .....It went to voicemail,I was away from my phone.....I thought it was illegal for companies to do soliciting on cell phone numbers?

Getting a lot of those lately, promising a two-person trip to the Bahamas for answering questions for them.

It sounds like a phishing expedition for some kind of scam.

Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at May 10, 2012 10:03 AM (e0xKF)

77 Just lurking around.

Posted by: no one home at May 10, 2012 11:46 AM (7qlme)

78 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at May 10, 2012 01:34 PM (7W3wI)

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