Ace of Spades HQ

November 02, 2012

Barone: Romney Wins 315 EVs; Takes PA, WI, and OH
— Ace

Ohio (1 . The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland's Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don't mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney. [The Night of the Living Dead scenario. -- ace]
...
Pennsylvania (20). Everyone would have picked Obama two weeks ago. I think higher turnout in pro-coal Western Pennsylvania and higher Republican percentages in the Philadelphia suburbs could produce a surprise. The Romney team evidently thinks so too. Their investment in TV time is too expensive to be a mere feint, and, as this is written, Romney is planning a Sunday event in Bucks County outside Philly. Wobbling on my limb, Romney.
...
Wisconsin (10). Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Gov. Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community. But early voting is down in university towns in other states. The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don't see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney.

He also thinks Romney wins NH based on greater GOP enthusiasm. Tied polls, more or less.

316? Barone doesn't mention ME-2 at all. I imagine that if New Hampshire goes Romney, so will Maine's conservative district, giving him one extra EV.

Posted by: Ace at 01:40 PM | Comments (234)
Post contains 287 words, total size 2 kb.

1 Ya know, Meatball gives us maps.

Posted by: fluffeneidas at November 02, 2012 01:41 PM (O6q63)

2 I can't keep up! Ace is on speed.

Posted by: soothsayer, a transcorporeal at November 02, 2012 01:42 PM (84JKc)

3 Great job New Jersey! Great job New York!! Woot Woot!!

Posted by: #lowcarbonfootprint at November 02, 2012 01:43 PM (OlV9H)

4 Obama is a SCFOAMF.

Posted by: Pastorius at November 02, 2012 01:43 PM (yhszT)

5 You wing-nuts are doomed! doooooomed!

Posted by: RomneyLosesGaryIndiana at November 02, 2012 01:43 PM (xAtAj)

6 Lather up, Axelrod.

Posted by: Craig Poe at November 02, 2012 01:44 PM (BVkEs)

7 How soon til this shit gets real?

Posted by: Dr. Varno at November 02, 2012 01:44 PM (MpT3b)

8 Ace is on Speed...

And just dip Axelrod in a barrel of NAIR.

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 02, 2012 01:44 PM (94rak)

Romney 51%

Obama 47% Popular Vote

Electoral College, just at Barone says.

Posted by: Pastorius at November 02, 2012 01:44 PM (yhszT)

10 Oh.... and excellent earlier post Ace. On the bubble that Obama and Doomburg and other statists and lefty environmentalists live in. Well done.

Posted by: Some Guy in Wisconsin at November 02, 2012 01:45 PM (OlV9H)

11 Delusional is not a good way to go through life son. It's a lot better to be on your knees next to a hole in the wall.

Posted by: Greg @ Glory Hole 775 at November 02, 2012 01:45 PM (/YJYi)

12 I don't want to do the map, because Barone gives some states to Obama I think we can win.

Posted by: ace at November 02, 2012 01:45 PM (LCRYB)

13
We have not yet begun to vote.

Posted by: The Dead at November 02, 2012 01:45 PM (Xv7f/)

14 Donna: You're thirty-three years old, you're supposed to be sexually active! You're not supposed to be fondling your uncle under the table

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at November 02, 2012 01:45 PM (ZPrif)

15 Don't those elderly Floridians realize that Paul Ryan is going to fill the state's sinkholes with their creepy naked bodies?

Posted by: Concern Troll at November 02, 2012 01:45 PM (b1iOR)

16 And Barone is very careful about predictions. So he's probably underestimating on purpose.

Posted by: runninrebel at November 02, 2012 01:45 PM (HonRE)

17 Of course, to hedge his bets, the last thing he said on Hannity was, "Obama could still win."

Debbie Downer.

Posted by: Wyatt Earp at November 02, 2012 01:45 PM (kFnmp)

18 But Intrade has Obama up by 20%!!!!!

I've been slacking for the last week or so, mostly because of that whole "earning a living" thing. Apologies.

I hereby promise to annoy the living shit out of the Horde with Intrade pronouncements for the next 3-4 days. It's the least I can do before retiring the meme.

Posted by: In before the troll at November 02, 2012 01:46 PM (TIIx5)

19 shouldn't this have a FLAMING SKULL DIPPING IN PUDDING??

Posted by: Evilpens at November 02, 2012 01:46 PM (ck76k)

20 Barone is the gold standard of predictors much like Nate Silver is the retarded brother who "accidentally" drowned while you were bathing him.

Posted by: Dr Spank at November 02, 2012 01:46 PM (b+jI9)

21 Ace, all kidding aside, your blog has become the best thing on the internet. Excellent job. Morontastic!

Posted by: USA at November 02, 2012 01:46 PM (RIg+t)

22 I HAVE SUCH A BIG BONER IN MY PANTS RIGHT NOW!

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at November 02, 2012 01:47 PM (ovpNn)

23 FOUR days til Erection Day.

Posted by: Bang Out Of Order at November 02, 2012 01:47 PM (1H47k)

24 Hmm, whom to believe, concern trolls or Barone?

Tough fucking call.

Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at November 02, 2012 01:47 PM (jo069)

25 Paul Ryan.

Monday Night.
9:45 PM Victory Rally
Sterling Aviation
Milwaukee WI

He's bringing it home, the night before the election.

Posted by: mama winger voted double for Paul Ryan at November 02, 2012 01:47 PM (P6QsQ)

26 Where did the pudding dipping come from?

Posted by: USA at November 02, 2012 01:47 PM (RIg+t)

27 I think it was Ben Domenech that tweeted this map: http://tinyurl.com/apwq5lm I think that, plus MI and PA. Both because we can take them, and come on, Romney 316? That just sells itself right there...!

Posted by: Brother Cavil presents at November 02, 2012 01:47 PM (GBXon)

28 What about Virginia?

Is that one considered a Romney "lock" now?

Anyone?

Posted by: Looking closely at November 02, 2012 01:48 PM (+PDlV)

29 I actually think this is scenario with a reasonable likelihood of occurring. It's what I would have expected to happen a week ago. Hopefully Sandy has not changed it much, and it happens now. In fact, a week ago, I would not have been surprised by a larger victory scenario. Now I'd say Barone's prediction is near the upper bound of what's plausible.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 02, 2012 01:48 PM (SKX2R)

30 I don't know how you're finding time to choke the chicken today, Ace. Take a break and beat that fucker like a red-headed stepchild.

Posted by: eastvalleyphx at November 02, 2012 01:48 PM (GRvW4)

31 ...I meant PA and OH. Math is hard. Of course I'd like to see MI to, but Romney 332 just doesn't have the same cachet.

Posted by: Brother Cavil presents at November 02, 2012 01:48 PM (GBXon)

32 Dennis: Hi. I'm a recovering crack head. This is my retarded sister that I take care of. I'd like some welfare, please.

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at November 02, 2012 01:49 PM (ZPrif)

33 Hope he is correct! Praying daily for Romney/Ryan, their protection, health and victory!

Posted by: ChristyBlinky,raving lunatic about Benghazi at November 02, 2012 01:49 PM (baL2B)

34 Let me just shut the door to my office here...don't want the wife and kids to know

a) Where all the pudding went

and

b) What I'm doing with the pudding

Posted by: Navin R Johnson at November 02, 2012 01:49 PM (RRbuy)

35 Apparently Obama is saying on the STump

"VOTING IS THE BEST REVENGE!"

Team Romney needs to get that vid and cut a campaign ad now!

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at November 02, 2012 01:49 PM (ovpNn)

36 NOBODY knows the electorate as Barone does. In my eyes, it's almost a guarantee.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 02, 2012 01:49 PM (piMMO)

37 I'm ready to flog and curb stomp every eeyore and Greg troll for giving me anxiety about this election, robbing me of the confidence that we are experiencing a wave of biblical proportions.

People say we should not gloat but show our victory with class. Fuck. That. Shit.

I will mercilessly harass and torture every liberal on Facebook, every shitbrained fuckhole on Twitter, and honk obnoxiously at every dickwad driver on the road sporting an Obama sticker so they can see my BIG ass Romney flags, and shamelessly torment all my leftist coworkers with sadistic pleasure.

4 years. I've had enough.

Posted by: Christina Hendricks's Mighty Jugs Teams Up With Mitt Romney's Hair to Defeat SCOAMF at November 02, 2012 01:49 PM (+AV7H)

38 And, a very lengthy analysis over at redstate http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/31/on-polling-models-skewed-unskewed/ a bit much but a conclusion of a romney win

Posted by: 4 days at November 02, 2012 01:49 PM (LpQbZ)

39 "Take it off, Axelrod. Take it all off."

Posted by: Gunilla Knutsson at November 02, 2012 01:49 PM (2c1Cq)

40 You think I give a damn about EV counts? Just send me and my state money and I'll be your bitch!

Posted by: Chris Christie at November 02, 2012 01:49 PM (eHIJJ)

41 barone didn't mention ME-2. I assume if NH swings Romney then he'll also pick up the lone ev from ME-2, for 316.

Posted by: ace at November 02, 2012 01:49 PM (LCRYB)

42 Nooooo! Wait, what? We're killing ourselves here.

Posted by: USS Diversity at November 02, 2012 01:49 PM (9ghZ6)

43 26 Where did the pudding dipping come from?

Posted by: USA at November 02, 2012 05:47 PM (RIg+t)

2girls1cup

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at November 02, 2012 01:49 PM (ovpNn)

44 I'm also expecting a surprise take or two. Oregon, Michigan, Nevada... one of those types, but I'm not silly enough to expect a sweep across the board, excluding the absolutely lost lands of the left.

It could happen, but I'm not expecting it.

Posted by: BurtTC at November 02, 2012 01:50 PM (BeSEI)

45 >>>He also thinks Romney wins NH based on greater GOP enthusiasm. I agree about NH.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 02, 2012 01:50 PM (SKX2R)

46 Flatbush Joe, He's a twankversatile.

Posted by: ace at November 02, 2012 01:50 PM (LCRYB)

47 27 I think it was Ben Domenech that tweeted this map: http://tinyurl.com/apwq5lm I think that, plus MI and PA. Both because we can take them, and come on, Romney 316? That just sells itself right there...! --- Romney 3:16 says "I just retired your worthless ass!"

Posted by: Mitt Romney at November 02, 2012 01:50 PM (e0xKF)

48 39 "Take it off, Axelrod. Take it all off."

Posted by: Gunilla Knutsson at November 02, 2012 05:49 PM (2c1Cq)

KEEP THE MUSTACHE.

SHAVE MOOCHELLE'S ASS AND MAKE HER WALK BACKWARDS OUT THE WHITE HOUSE IN JANUARY!

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at November 02, 2012 01:51 PM (ovpNn)

49 from my comments on the other side, here's a freakout: In election years, in MI, for example, the total vote is about 1.5 million greater than off election years. Where do these people come from then? Will they be autovotes for either party or what? I don't envy these pollsters from trying to figure this shit out. Sure, GOP governor won MI by 15 points in 2010, but Obama won MI by 17 points in 2008 with about a million more votes cast in total.

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at November 02, 2012 01:51 PM (QxSug)

; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;" class="MsoNormal"> 22I HAVE SUCH A BIG BONER IN MY PANTS RIGHT NOW!

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright

You shouldn't s stand so close to people on the bus.

Posted by: Dirks Strewn at November 02, 2012 01:51 PM (Rrc6j)

51 Tingles is gonna be crushed.

Posted by: dogfish at November 02, 2012 01:51 PM (N2yhW)

52 I think Paul Ryan must be flying into Mitchell that night to go back to Janesville and vote in the morning. Gosh I would love to be there but I can't drive at night and son is in Vegas.

Posted by: mama winger voted double for Paul Ryan at November 02, 2012 01:51 PM (P6QsQ)

53 Listen I used to be blue-collar, but that didn't necessarily mean my brain didn't work. These auto guys must know, somewhere in the back of the 'old' brain that they're gonna get their balls cut off by Obama.

When an Atlantic City Hooker gets her job 'outsourced' to the Dominican Republic by a (D) Senator, they've got to read the writing on the wall.

Posted by: Schrödinger's cat at November 02, 2012 01:51 PM (feFL6)

54 Gravy will be my beverage of choice Tuesday night.

Posted by: Candy Crowley at November 02, 2012 01:51 PM (wIgpo)

55 Barone is the gold standard of predictors much like Nate Silver is the retarded brother who "accidentally" drowned while you were bathing him.

Posted by: Dr Spank at November 02, 2012 05:46 PM (b+jI9)

btw, if Nate Silver is feeling heat from conservatives now, just you wait... if Romney wins this he is going to be brutalized by the left for giving them false hope.

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 02, 2012 01:51 PM (UypUQ)

56 341

Posted by: SFGoth at November 02, 2012 01:52 PM (dZ756)

57 where's nickless?

Posted by: soothsayer, a transcorporeal at November 02, 2012 01:52 PM (84JKc)

58 Lather up, Axelrod.

Posted by: Craig Poe at November 02, 2012 05:44 PM (BVkEs)

------------------------------------------

That's disturbing.

Posted by: Soona at November 02, 2012 01:52 PM (Bk8vR)

59 Right now i'm making a non-lethal pudding bomb. Right before bed i'll test it. I can't decide on the flavor.

Posted by: humphreyrobot at November 02, 2012 01:52 PM (EiH7n)

60 Brianna: You look like a Holocaust victim in pageant makeup. Sweet Dee: I will eat your babies, bitch!

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at November 02, 2012 01:52 PM (ZPrif)

61 51

22I HAVE SUCH A
BIG BONER IN MY PANTS RIGHT NOW!

Posted by: jeremiah
Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright

You shouldn'ts stand so close to people on the bus.

Posted by: Dirks Strewn at November 02, 2012 05:51 PM (Rrc6j)

Fuck that...if they are democrats, its time for us to come together...LET THEM FEEL THE LOVE!

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at November 02, 2012 01:53 PM (ovpNn)

62 315 EVs? Bricks will be shat.

Posted by: tdpwells at November 02, 2012 01:53 PM (7vA7k)

63 Is this the Manic or Depressive thread?

Posted by: bipolar madness at November 02, 2012 01:53 PM (LpQbZ)

64 #14

Donna - You're just kinda mashing it.

Posted by: Navin R Johnson at November 02, 2012 01:53 PM (RRbuy)

65 I don't give a fuck what Axalrod or any other of these turds do when they leave the whitehouse. They need to remember something. The Secret Service don't protect them anymore.

Posted by: Oldsailors Poet, Wonders what Dagny thinks at November 02, 2012 01:53 PM (kc2b9)

66 Nice off while linen drapery will look simply fabulous behind the Churchill bust.

Posted by: Mrs. Romney at November 02, 2012 01:53 PM (N2yhW)

67 We got this.

Posted by: eleven at November 02, 2012 01:53 PM (fsLdt)

68 I'm not much for pudding, but two Christmases ago someone gave me a very expensive wine I've been saving for a really special occasion. I think this might qualify.

Posted by: mama winger voted double for Paul Ryan at November 02, 2012 01:53 PM (P6QsQ)

69 We're fitting an Insulin Pump and a central line to dispense Prozac for Mr Matthews.

Posted by: Liberty Medical Supplies at November 02, 2012 01:54 PM (+I8Mq)

70 Beckel says voter fraud is "not a bad thing". The fool should of been fired yesterday.

Posted by: Craig Poe at November 02, 2012 01:54 PM (BVkEs)

71 We can't run a marathon, there's too much shit and too many people sitting around that we might trip over.

Posted by: USS Diversity at November 02, 2012 01:54 PM (9ghZ6)

72 I will mercilessly harass and torture every liberal on Facebook, every shitbrained fuckhole on Twitter, and honk obnoxiously at every dickwad driver on the road sporting an Obama sticker so they can see my BIG ass Romney flags, and shamelessly torment all my leftist coworkers with sadistic pleasure.

4 years. I've had enough.

Posted by: Christina Hendricks's Mighty Jugs Teams Up With Mitt Romney's Hair to Defeat SCOAMF at November 02, 2012 05:49 PM (+AV7H)

Well said. It's only fair -- they slandered us as racists, sexists, homophobes and mouth-breathing hicks for the last 5 years. Genteel is not how I feel right now.

Posted by: no one of consequence at November 02, 2012 01:54 PM (909/3)

73 16 And Barone is very careful about predictions. So he's probably underestimating on purpose.

Posted by: runninrebel at November 02, 2012 05:45 PM (HonRE)

Ehhh.. not to be a buzzkill, but on Hannity just now he did admit that an Obama win is a possibility. He's not very confident at all in the polling. He's going a lot on gut with those predictions.

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 02, 2012 01:54 PM (UypUQ)

74
I don't know, I think Barone missed the hall dump voters, they've been raising a stink lately.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at November 02, 2012 01:54 PM (PHb2k)

75 I love how the smiley script even bedevils Ace's posts.

Posted by: logprof at November 02, 2012 01:55 PM (jKE+Z)

76 Is this the Manic or Depressive thread? YES!

Posted by: Evilpens at November 02, 2012 01:55 PM (ck76k)

77 btw, if Nate Silver is feeling heat from conservatives now, just you
wait... if Romney wins this he is going to be brutalized by the left for
giving them false hope.

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 02, 2012 05:51 PM (UypUQ)

They are so unhinged, i would not be a bit surprised if they attempt to assassinate him after blaming him for lulling dems into a false sense of security thinking obama had it in the bag...but then the only dems who would think that would be the ones who only get their news from MSNBC, ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, PBS. the NYSlimes, Washington Post, ...oh wait.,.

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at November 02, 2012 01:55 PM (ovpNn)

78 >>>I'm ready to flog and curb stomp every eeyore and Greg troll for giving me anxiety about this election If you think that's anxiety, what do you think it's like actually BEING me. I actually do think Romney's more likely to win, but I know for a fact I've everestimated GOP performance in the last 3 elections straight. This despite being wildly lead astray by AJ Strata's mathematical "analysis" in 2006, which turned out to be a joke I completely and utterly fell for. Since then, I've tried to tamp down my predictions and sure, I've gotten closer, but I've STILL overestimated our performance. And been called an eeyore by hundreds of people like you despite STILL being overly optimistic in the last 2 elections. So my question for myself is did I finally strike the right balance and overcompensate, and we'll either win by the margin I suspect or better? Or, once again, am I going to be disappointed on election night, and realize that folks such as most of those here are way WAY out to lunch? Which they'll promptly forget about, and call me an eeyoore/concern troll in 2014.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 02, 2012 01:55 PM (SKX2R)

79 @75, now they're the party of the evangenlical gaytheists

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at November 02, 2012 01:55 PM (QxSug)

80 I trust Barone as well. He is top shelf. But what the hell is wrong with Rasmussen? How did R lose 2 points in 1 day?

Posted by: Texas Thunder at November 02, 2012 01:55 PM (USAZo)

Barone? ...I'm filing this under "that's nice".

O/T...

When is that NatGeo special on 'Killing Bin Laden' going to air?

You know, the one that supposedly makes Barky look good.

Is that Sunday night?

Posted by: wheatie at November 02, 2012 01:55 PM (ICEh3)

82 19 shouldn't this have a FLAMING SKULL DIPPING IN PUDDING??

Posted by: Evilpens at November 02, 2012 05:46 PM (ck76k)

I wonder if he's got something super sekrit planned for next Tuesday. I don't think even flaming skull with pudding chaser is going to be sufficient.

Posted by: tdpwells at November 02, 2012 01:55 PM (7vA7k)

83 68 Nice off while linen drapery will look simply fabulous behind the Churchill bust. Posted by: Mrs. Romney at November 02, 2012 05:53 PM (N2yhW) Be Patient hon. It's gonna take a few days to get the soul glow stains off the furniture.

Posted by: Oldsailors Poet, Wonders what Dagny thinks at November 02, 2012 01:56 PM (kc2b9)

84 This election is in the bag!

In. The. Bag.

Like Moochelle's sasquatch-looking head the first time Barky mounted that beast.

Posted by: Double Wide at November 02, 2012 01:56 PM (vcYNu)

Barone appears to be saying the same thing, more or less, as Dick Morris. Which is the model is in large part based on a D+8 or so sampling based on 2008 trend lines. This of course does not take into consideration that the D registrants are just not there and in fact R is much stronger which when combined with early vote trending strongly suggests Romney will have a much stronger showing then is being identified in the polling samples.

But the Dems are going to make this as close as possible by hook or crook. They are already formulating legal challenges and have put mouth pieces to work in order to pre-legitimize the vote and to essentially stir up the progressives. Add the UN to the mix and just the mention of voter impropriety and voter disenfranchisement under media memes and this country could quite literally come unglued.

Pray for this country.

Posted by: Journolist at November 02, 2012 01:56 PM (LyIKl)

86 >>>>>Ehhh.. not to be a buzzkill, but on Hannity just now he did admit that an Obama win is a possibility. He's not very confident at all in the polling. He's going a lot on gut with those predictions.
__

If you listen too and read Barone often you know what he was saying was essentially, "Anything's possible, like and alien invasion for instance."

Posted by: runninrebel at November 02, 2012 01:56 PM (HonRE)

87 Ace, I haven't gotten that far. twink-versatile is season 8 (according to IMDB). I'm on season 5. No twink spoilers!

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at November 02, 2012 01:56 PM (ZPrif)

88 Just had a Republican canvasser at the door. He said he's been canvassing our town all day, and not one single person has said they are voting for Obama.

Posted by: Jewels at November 02, 2012 01:56 PM (Ni1q0)

89 I will be so loaded up on Gin and Tonic if we hit the PA/OH/WI trifecta. I may be vomiting and soiling myself by 11CST. And loving it.

Posted by: Badger Red at November 02, 2012 01:56 PM (IGOqg)

90 Nate Silver will be completely covered by his 20% Romney chance. No one will attack him. Instead the libs will claim Sandy, suppression, and racism. Nate Silver is only exciting now. Once a real result comes in, everyone will ignore him, and instead try to figure out where the pollsters were right/wrong.

Posted by: Sexypig at November 02, 2012 01:56 PM (lX+9R)

91 75 I
will mercilessly harass and torture every liberal on Facebook, every
shitbrained fuckhole on Twitter, and honk obnoxiously at every dickwad
driver on the road sporting an Obama sticker so they can see my BIG ass
Romney flags, and shamelessly torment all my leftist coworkers with
sadistic pleasure.

4 years. I've had enough.

Posted by: Christina Hendricks's Mighty Jugs Teams Up With Mitt Romney's
Hair to Defeat SCOAMF at November 02, 2012 05:49 PM (+AV7H)
Yeah, i have to admit, i am looking forward to honking at people with obama stickers after the election and then pointing and laughing like a heyena when they turn to look at me.

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at November 02, 2012 01:56 PM (ovpNn)

92 http://wp.me/ppxld-Eyw

Check out the military endorsements for each candidate.

Posted by: sTevo at November 02, 2012 01:56 PM (VMcEw)

93 For two weeks now I have been braying like a jackass about a Romney Landslide, but today I decided to cover my ass and talk about new "dangers" to Mitt.

I know it's a cowardly thing to do, but that's how far I have fallen in life.

These days, I even have to suck my own toes.

Posted by: Dick Morris at November 02, 2012 01:57 PM (2c1Cq)

94 Beckel says voter fraud is "not a bad thing". The fool should of been fired yesterday.

Posted by: Craig Poe at November 02, 2012 05:54 PM (BVkEs)

Jeeze! I think sometimes Beckel beleives he's playing a character on a West Wing spinoff and not an actual, you now, real life commentator on a cables news network.

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 02, 2012 01:57 PM (UypUQ)

95 I don't know anyone who voted for Mitt Romney!

Posted by: Nate Silver at November 02, 2012 01:57 PM (fsLdt)

96 Beckel says voter fraud is "not a bad thing". The fool should of been fired yesterday.

***

In 2008 he sat around and talked about the good old days in, IIRC, Ohio, and how they would keep holding out their vote totals until they knew how many more votes they needed.

How FNC could stomach him after that is beyond me.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 02, 2012 01:57 PM (piMMO)

97 28 What about Virginia? Is that one considered a Romney "lock" now? Anyone? Posted by: Looking closely at November 02, 2012 05:48 PM (+PDlV) --It became a lock just after Odipshit smarmily mocked the Navy and bayonets.

Posted by: logprof at November 02, 2012 01:57 PM (jKE+Z)

98 it's twankversatile. Okay, no spoilers.

Posted by: ace at November 02, 2012 01:57 PM (LCRYB)

99 Posted by: Serious Cat at November 02, 2012 05:51 PM (UypUQ) eh, not really nate will come up with some mathy sciencey excuse that liberals will just swallow whole, especially since the excuse must necessarily include hate directed at Rasmussen or something.

Posted by: chemjeff on the phone at November 02, 2012 01:58 PM (y0sZC)

100 Ace - Can we just get a Sunny quote thread later? After this week, we all deserve it.

And good day to youse...

Posted by: Navin R Johnson at November 02, 2012 01:58 PM (RRbuy)

101
If you listen too and read Barone often you know what he was saying was essentially, "Anything's possible, like and alien invasion for instance."

****

heh

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 02, 2012 01:58 PM (piMMO)

102 When Barone starts talking about precincts in Macomb County on Tuesday night, that is my signal to start throwing M-80s into steel trash cans!

Posted by: Jayne Cobb at November 02, 2012 01:58 PM (rWGH+)

103

we need the Senate as well so hopefully R has some coattails in Ohio, Penn, and Wisconsin. We need those senate seats!

Posted by: ilovebacon at November 02, 2012 01:58 PM (XBvc+)

104 Prime example of the kind of person I'm talking about: >>>This election is in the bag! >>>In. The. Bag. >>>Like Moochelle's sasquatch-looking head the first time Barky mounted that beast. >>>Posted by: Double Wide at November 02, 2012 05:56 PM (vcYNu) No offense intended, but you're fucking crazy.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 02, 2012 01:58 PM (SKX2R)

105 92 Just had a Republican canvasser at the door. He said he's been canvassing our town all day, and not one single person has said they are voting for Obama.

Posted by: Jewels at November 02, 2012 05:56 PM (Ni1q0)

Yeah, but he wasn't going randomnly to peoples homes, right? I assume these door knockers are going off a list of people targeted as Mitt-get's.

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 02, 2012 01:58 PM (UypUQ)

106 Yes, Michael Barone. Michae Barone, the country's foremost elections expert. Michael Barone has studied in depth every single district in the country.

Posted by: soothsayer, a transcorporeal at November 02, 2012 01:59 PM (84JKc)

107 Let's not start ducking each others' sicks quite yet.

Posted by: Bang Out Of Order at November 02, 2012 01:59 PM (1H47k)

108 and look, Obama could still win. If he does, you know why. Unemployed folks who now are on disability vote for government pie. People who have no idea how messed up our budget vote government pie. But, that pie is about to go bye bye. Then these idiots will be like "what? they lied to me!" Liars being whoever is convenient for them.

Posted by: Sexypig at November 02, 2012 01:59 PM (lX+9R)

109
You know, we do need an official predictions thread at some point, so we can all get our markers down on one table.

Also, "but - but - muh Nate Silver!"

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at November 02, 2012 01:59 PM (kdS6q)

110 99 I don't know anyone who voted for Mitt Romney!

Posted by: Nate Silver at November 02, 2012 05:57 PM (fsLdt)

Me either.

Posted by: Greg, Nate Silver's love child at November 02, 2012 01:59 PM (wR+pz)

111 Just kidding about the spoilers. It's a show of dick jokes, what's to spoil?

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at November 02, 2012 01:59 PM (ZPrif)

112 I'll stick with my prediction of 374, based on the science of feelings.

Posted by: Up with people at November 02, 2012 02:00 PM (kzFo5)

113 i think the problem might be that Obama has the prostitute vote locked up. could swing Nevada
Posted by: JDP
Considering prostitution is legal in NV, and therefore more easily subject to income tax....

Posted by: SFGoth at November 02, 2012 02:00 PM (dZ756)

114 Â“Twenty bucks an hour, thatÂ’s an outrage, these guys are blasting us in the ass.Â” - Mac Â“We pay their salaries and they turn around and ass blast us? Come on.Â” - Dennis Â“What are you talking about? You donÂ’t pay taxes, you donÂ’t even vote.Â” - Sweet Dee Â“Who am I supposed to vote for? The Republican whoÂ’s blasting me in the ass or the Democrat whoÂ’s blasting me in the ass?Â” - Dennis Â“Yeah, politics is all one big ass blast.Â” - Charlie

Posted by: Flatbush Joe at November 02, 2012 02:00 PM (ZPrif)

115 So, anyone else here that volunteered for ORCA having trouble communicating with the local "victory" office?

Posted by: Joe Mama at November 02, 2012 02:00 PM (JJ+PT)

116 "In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don't mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory." The Media. We decide. (And then report.) (And if we have some biases, hey, we're just human. But what you also have to keep in mind is that we're also completely unbiased.)

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at November 02, 2012 02:00 PM (aSf5o)

117 Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 02, 2012 05:55 PM (SKX2R)

--------------

May I ask who you are?

Posted by: mama winger voted double for Paul Ryan at November 02, 2012 02:00 PM (P6QsQ)

118 Romney back to +1 in the WAPO tracker...that would be after any Sandy/Christie potential bounce. Romney just killed today in WI while Barry is talking "revenge voting". Ignore Intrade- it can manipulated by anyone who wants to play psych ops games...it will crater for Obama late election day. We're getting this done, gentlemen

Posted by: jjshaka at November 02, 2012 02:01 PM (LuBkF)

119 +1

Posted by: maineconservative at November 02, 2012 02:01 PM (vm4Ks)

120 I don't know anyone who voted for Mitt Romney!

Posted by: Nate Silver at November 02, 2012 05:57 PM (fsLdt)

Why's he even running? He'll be slaughtered.

Posted by: Pauline Kael at November 02, 2012 02:01 PM (QKKT0)

121 327-211.

Posted by: Truman North at November 02, 2012 02:01 PM (I2LwF)

122 They can have Nate Silver. If Barone is talking like this then it carries some weight to me.

Posted by: Dave S. at November 02, 2012 02:01 PM (/BwGa)

123 RomneyÂ‘s first act as president: Â“give Mr Obama the same protection detail that he gave the the fallen four in Libya Â“

Posted by: Kindle Opus Anarcus at November 02, 2012 02:01 PM (ld/zE)

124 Samwise -- suck my balls.

Posted by: eleven at November 02, 2012 02:01 PM (fsLdt)

125 Holy cow... look at the crowd building for Romney in Cincy http://tinyurl.com/al9xb9h

Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp at November 02, 2012 02:01 PM (DGIjM)

126 120 So, anyone else here that volunteered for ORCA having trouble communicating with the local "victory" office? Posted by: Joe Mama at November 02, 2012 06:00 PM (JJ+PT) Nope, they contacted me.

Posted by: Oldsailors Poet, Wonders what Dagny thinks at November 02, 2012 02:01 PM (kc2b9)

127

I wonder if he's got something super sekrit planned for next Tuesday. I don't think even flaming skull with pudding chaser is going to be sufficient.

------------------------------------------------

Dick Cheney's flaming, pulsating barbed war-cock.

Posted by: Soona at November 02, 2012 02:01 PM (Bk8vR)

128 yeah, obama could still win, I'm freaking out man! FDR won reelection with the same shitty numbers and the same shitty economic plan (gee, our spending and deficits match WWII). So, um, GOTV people!

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at November 02, 2012 02:02 PM (QxSug)

129 >>>For two weeks now I have been braying like a jackass about a Romney Landslide, but today I decided to cover my ass and talk about new "dangers" to Mitt. >>>I know it's a cowardly thing to do, but that's how far I have fallen in life. >>>These days, I even have to suck my own toes. >>>Posted by: Dick Morris lol - just like AJ Strata lead me to be overoptimistic in 2006, Morris did in 2010 (although not as badly). And was I called a concern troll/eeyore in both 2008 and 2010? Oh yeah. I was. lol It's aggravating, but it's also amusing to see people who get themselves into a way WAY overly optimistic bubble to be calling me an eeyore for not being as optimistic as they are, when in fact I also prove to be overly optimistic. That's irony. And happens every damn election now.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 02, 2012 02:02 PM (SKX2R)

130 Okay, what type of sauce do I dip my balls into to celebrate a Romney victory? Ranch? BBQ? I especially want to hear from Greg, since he won't be eating crow on Tuesday. He'll be eating cock.

Posted by: Guy Who Dips His Balls Into Stuff Like That at November 02, 2012 02:02 PM (F6KtL)

131 Barone is one smart cookie. He really knows his onions.

Posted by: Guy Who Uses Food References For Everything at November 02, 2012 02:02 PM (sTS/8)

132

Where the hell is Ace? Eric Blowhard is virtually screaming for an ass calibration on Twitter.

You horde calls. Will you answer the call?

Posted by: HtP at November 02, 2012 02:02 PM (jx2j9)

133 316 - 18 (Ohio) = 298 .. so even if Ohio is the Florida of 2012, we'll know the winner.

Mew

Posted by: acat at November 02, 2012 02:02 PM (l8nW6)

134 Nope, they contacted me.

--------------

Same here.

Posted by: mama winger voted double for Paul Ryan at November 02, 2012 02:02 PM (P6QsQ)

135 Samwise is almost as irritating as Cristoph.

Almost

Posted by: runninrebel at November 02, 2012 02:02 PM (HonRE)

136 86 Nightline had a voter fraud special last night where the questioning for the Tea Party person in charge of an anti-fraud group was basically constant "why do you hate black ppl"

We have to be outside the "margin of cheat" Think Minnesota in 08. The Dems will be cheating their little hearts out--bet on it

Posted by: Texas Thunder at November 02, 2012 02:02 PM (USAZo)

137 Nevada (6). Democratic early-voting turnout is down from 2008 in Las Vegas' Clark County, 70 percent of the state. But the casino unions' turnout machine on Election Day re-elected an unpopular Harry Reid in 2010, and I think they'll get enough Latinos and Filipinos out this time. Obama. ______________ Barone is overweighting this. He has to explain how--Harry Reid beat Sharon Angle--yet Rory Reid was beat to smithereens by-- Brian Sandoval. A late breaking tape of Angle promising a third party candidate --whose endorsement she was courting--that she would knife Republicans in the back if she won her Senate seat was a little too much. IOW--her primary rae was very bitter. The Romney candidacy --and primary record can in no way compare to the NV Republican primary Senate race that year.

Posted by: tasker at November 02, 2012 02:03 PM (r2PLg)

138 I've seen Barone not want to call a race with 95% of the vote in. It is a BIG deal to call this for Romney.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at November 02, 2012 02:03 PM (hlUJY)

139 "Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community." Maybe people who take more than they make shouldn't get to vote until the two quantities are at least equal...

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at November 02, 2012 02:03 PM (aSf5o)

140 Ohio is a no brainer. In '04 Bush won the state by ~110,000 net ballots, 51-49, despite being destroyed among Independents. How did he win? More Republicans turned out than Democrats that year in OH and Republicans that year voted in lock step. This year, though, even airheaded liberals in the media have figured out that Romney will win the Independent vote. And although there still is the misama on the right of non-voting conservatives and non-voting conservative poseurs the reality is that it's inconceivable that Democrat turnout in OH this year could be all that much more than Republican turnout. Romney takes OH. Figure 51-49 or thereabouts. That said, however, PA likely is a mirage and WI is dicey at best. PA voted for Kerry against a wartime incumbent Republican only 3 years removed from 9/11. WI holds the dubious distinction of having voted both for Carter and Dukakis. But given that both sides heavily are campaigning in WI it's probably about a coin flip as to who wins. No question Romney will do well in PA, way above McCain's total, obviously, but I just don't see it flipping his way. That certainly would be a sweet score, though.

Posted by: Tsar Nicholas II at November 02, 2012 02:03 PM (pmsMR)

141 It ain't working Samwise. Go fuck that chicken.

Posted by: eleven at November 02, 2012 02:03 PM (fsLdt)

142 In 2008 he sat around and talked about the good old days in, IIRC, Ohio, and how they would keep holding out their vote totals until they knew how many more votes they needed.

How FNC could stomach him after that is beyond me.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 02, 2012 05:57 PM (piMMO)

Something about keeping your friends close and your enemas closer.

Posted by: Don Corleone at November 02, 2012 02:03 PM (JJ+PT)

143 Some truth at last:

Joe Biden: "There's Never Been A Day In The Last Four Years I've Been Proud To Be His Vice President"

- Weekly Standard == http://tinyurl.com/awltf9p

THIS, THIS they will call a gaffe.

Posted by: Jcw46 at November 02, 2012 02:03 PM (SP4jC)

144 Ace - Can we just get a Sunny quote thread later? After this week, we all deserve it.

And good day to youse...

****

Sunny? As in The Gang Runs For Office?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdCjrlXSL4Y

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 02, 2012 02:03 PM (piMMO)

145 Also, I thought the SCOTUS would strike down Obamacare...well, let's not get too optimistic, BUT unlike with that decision, we can actually affect the election....

Posted by: Sexypig at November 02, 2012 02:03 PM (lX+9R)

146 Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 02, 2012 05:58 PM (SKX2R)

You're a fuckin idiot. 2010 people got out cuz they were pissed. Those same folks are STILL pissed. Barky has not won a single new voter, and Romney/Ryan are going to have everybody who is still pissed - plus new voters.

Done. Fuckin idiot.

Posted by: eastvalleyphx at November 02, 2012 02:03 PM (GRvW4)

147 You have to ask yourself-- If Harry Reid was all that and a bag of chips--then why did his machine NOT vote for his son-- Rory Reid--for the NV governor.

Posted by: tasker at November 02, 2012 02:04 PM (r2PLg)

148 Huffpos pollster called PV for Romney today.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at November 02, 2012 02:04 PM (hlUJY)

149 Considering prostitution is legal in NV, and therefore more easily subject to income tax....

Posted by: SFGoth at November 02, 2012 06:00 PM (dZ756)

----------------------------------------

It's legal outside of any city limits. Otherwise they're busted just like the ho's in OKC.

Posted by: Soona at November 02, 2012 02:04 PM (Bk8vR)

150
Chardee Macdennis had me rolling
Charlie: Dennis is asshole. Why Charlie hate?
Dennis: Because Dennis is a bastard man.

Posted by: Xander Crews at November 02, 2012 02:04 PM (QXPqW)

151 nate will come up with some mathy sciencey excuse that liberals will just swallow whole,

Posted by: chemjeff on the phone at November 02, 2012 05:58 PM (y0sZC)

So same science used for man made climate change, then.

Posted by: tdpwells at November 02, 2012 02:05 PM (7vA7k)

152 Damn..... I can't wait till Tuesday night to see Rachel Maddow so distraught she may just blow the Reverend Al

Posted by: Sean at November 02, 2012 02:05 PM (53Nsb)

153 Wow. Liberal Methodist "Preacher" at an Obama event: "Stand tall Mr President, God is on your side." And they wonder why people are fleeing the pews at these liberal "churches". When you stand for nothing, you'll fall for anything.

Posted by: Truck Monkey at November 02, 2012 02:05 PM (jucos)

154 I see Samwise has been at it again.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at November 02, 2012 02:05 PM (aSf5o)

155

Anything can indeed happen.

Keep in mind we currently have a dead ambassador and three others and a cover up in the white house and media which just hop scotched over the other white house and DOJ media cover up of 600 dead Mexicans and two border agents in an operation named Fast & Furious authorized by the Obama administration all in an attempt to negatively impact the second amendment.

Oh, and also remember anything is possible while we watch in horror half of Manhattan live in squalor after Sandy.

Posted by: Journolist at November 02, 2012 02:05 PM (LyIKl)

156 I don't think Romney's GOTV is quite the same powerful machine as W's was in 2004. freaking out, man

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at November 02, 2012 02:05 PM (QxSug)

157 >>>Huffpos pollster called PV for Romney today.
__

Palos Verdes? That's a given.

Posted by: runninrebel at November 02, 2012 02:06 PM (HonRE)

158 Romney wins Colorado, too. So I'm predicting 325.

Posted by: Michael the Hobbitt at November 02, 2012 02:06 PM (hzV1U)

159 24 Hmm, whom to believe, concern trolls or Barone? Tough fucking call. Posted by: weft cut-loop Nice!

Posted by: Dianna at November 02, 2012 02:06 PM (DV/Ik)

160 I will mercilessly harass and torture every liberal on Facebook, every shitbrained fuckhole on Twitter, and honk obnoxiously at every dickwad driver on the road sporting an Obama sticker so they can see my BIG ass Romney flags, and shamelessly torment all my leftist coworkers with sadistic pleasure. 4 years. I've had enough. ---- Been thinking about that myself. I have a draft posting in my mind. It involves telling my 50% democrat friends that maybe they should consider suicide, because the country and myself would be better off if they didn't exist. I'll get a nice and insane rant thought up by next wed.

Posted by: Up with people at November 02, 2012 02:06 PM (kzFo5)

161 158 Damn..... I can't wait till Tuesday night to see Rachel Maddow so distraught she may just blow the Reverend Al Posted by: Sean at November 02, 2012 06:05 PM (53Nsb) I think you have that backwards.

Posted by: BCochran1981 at November 02, 2012 02:06 PM (n5+zr)

162 And btw--Rory Reid held a very powerful seat on the Clark County board of commissioners. It's actually that board that controls the Strip--not the Goodmans--or the mayor of Las Vegas.

Posted by: tasker at November 02, 2012 02:07 PM (r2PLg)

163 Ooh!

I just figured out how to combine two of my three cravings.

I will buy a Chick-Fil-A sandwich, throw away the bread, and eat it between two KK donuts.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 02, 2012 02:07 PM (piMMO)

164 Fundamentals? What kind of weak shit is that? Without a statistical model, Mr. Barone's claims are hypothetical and indeed, unverifiable. Obama's odds increase to 95.77%, and at his current wins-above-replacement average, he is expected to receive at least a few hundred electrical, um, electoral votes.

Posted by: Nate Silver at November 02, 2012 02:07 PM (NWLVJ)

165
Barone is always damn good at this and if he says 315 giving a 45 EV leeway to be wrong, I feel pretty strong the scoamf is gonna get beat up by moochelle that night.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at November 02, 2012 02:07 PM (PHb2k)

166 Liberal Methodist "Preacher" at an Obama event: "Stand tall Mr President, God is on your side."

----------------

Maybe he means Ba'al.

Posted by: mama winger voted double for Paul Ryan at November 02, 2012 02:07 PM (P6QsQ)

167 53-47 National

300+ EC

Romney wins Colorado, giving me the ample excuse I need to move to that state and cancel out a Denver vote.

Posted by: Christina Hendricks's Mighty Jugs Teams Up With Mitt Romney's Hair to Defeat SCOAMF at November 02, 2012 02:07 PM (+AV7H)

168 168 You have a good point!!!!

Posted by: Sean at November 02, 2012 02:08 PM (53Nsb)

169 Something about keeping your friends close and your enemas closer.

****

Gutfeld was a bit testy with him today

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 02, 2012 02:08 PM (piMMO)

170 When my mouth fails, it's Bush's fault.

Posted by: Pilgrimsarbour at November 02, 2012 02:08 PM (TBgRx)

171 Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 02, 2012 06:07 PM (piMMO) Hahaha. Btw, on the sushi thing. There's a place on San Jose called Sakura's that's excellent and if you're up in Fernandina, look for Fancy Sushi.

Posted by: BCochran1981 at November 02, 2012 02:09 PM (n5+zr)

172 Carter's gonna kick Reagan's ass, man.

Posted by: 1980 Jelly at November 02, 2012 02:09 PM (BVkEs)

173 Gentlemen, let's not buy each other Chick-Fil-A meals just yet.

Posted by: Winston Wolf the Christian at November 02, 2012 02:09 PM (+AV7H)

174 I have some epic rants in draft form for my prog friends.

I'm busy memorizing them because I know they won't read them in an email.

I'm expecting tears.

Posted by: runninrebel at November 02, 2012 02:09 PM (HonRE)

175 179 Time to panic.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at November 02, 2012 02:09 PM (aSf5o)

176 I suggest a Moron/Moronette confab in D.C. early on Inauguration day.

We could form a line on along the curb on Pennsylvania Ave, and flash-moon the JEF and his hideous Gorgon-like consort as their limo convertible slowly passes by.

Flash-mooning lefties: it'll be the next Big Thing.

Posted by: Hater B. Hatin at November 02, 2012 02:10 PM (2c1Cq)

177 new one

Posted by: mama winger voted double for Paul Ryan at November 02, 2012 02:10 PM (P6QsQ)

178 deleted at request of commenter.

Posted by: Joe Mama at November 02, 2012 02:11 PM (JJ+PT)

179 Maybe he means Ba'al. Posted by: mama winger voted double for Paul Ryan at November 02, 2012 06:07 PM (P6QsQ) -------------------------------------------------------- It was an angry little dwarf of a woman. Probably lesbian.

Posted by: Truck Monkey at November 02, 2012 02:11 PM (jucos)

180 Considering prostitution is legal in NV, and therefore more easily subject to income tax....

Posted by: SFGoth at November 02, 2012 06:00 PM (dZ756)

---------------------------------------------

Let's not take any of this for granted. Vote! Vote! Vote!.

Posted by: Soona at November 02, 2012 02:11 PM (Bk8vR)

181 183 But won't they just enjoy it?

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at November 02, 2012 02:11 PM (aSf5o)

182

Wow. Liberal Methodist "Preacher" at an Obama event: "Stand tall Mr President, God is on your side." And they wonder why people are fleeing the pews at these liberal "churches". When you stand for nothing, you'll fall for anything.

Wow. God might beg to differ, just like those 2 left wing idiot black preachers on Hannity last night defending that preacher saying "all white folks going to hell" Unreal. Can't get rid of this corrupt administration fast enough

Posted by: Texas Thunder at November 02, 2012 02:12 PM (USAZo)

183 Oops. Wrong fucking comment. It still kind of works, though.

Posted by: Soona at November 02, 2012 02:12 PM (Bk8vR)

184 I like watching Barone on election night because he will say things like "Democrats outnumber Republicans in ward 3 of the 2-nd congressional district in [insert state] and therefore, despite the GOP's early lead, it will almost certainly go Democrat." He's top notch. That said, I'm too effing worried about this election and what a Romney loss will mean to break out the pudding yet. Heck, if Romney wins, I'll make some from scratch. Gonna be hard because I'll be tanked, but it will be worth it.

Posted by: physics geek at November 02, 2012 02:13 PM (llWHs)

185 Nevada Early Vote Update (One Day Left To Go) After the second to last day of early voting, the Democrats have a lead of 45K raw voters over Republicans; this shrinks to less than 40K when absentees that have been turned-in already are included. After 13 days of early voting in 2008, the Democrats had an advantage of 76K in Clark County. The Democrats raw vote advantage is down 79% in Clark County from 2008, though the total number of votes has increased by about 11%, relative to four years ago. This results in a 71% reduction in their vote advantage compared to 2008 for early voting. Absentees are coming in at about 1/7 of the early votes. At this 71% reduction in advantage for the Democrats, their projected early vote lead will be about 15%, or about 66K in Clark County. Assuming that early votes are about 70% of the total vote, and with an 80% turnout, this would give a lead for the Democrats in Clark County at about 75K, if a similar reduction in advantage for election day vote advantage is applied and assuming that 2012 trends like in 2008 (with Democrat vote advantage shrunk to 71%, and 112% of the early voters). Washoe county continues to trend towards being an overall wash (pun intended) with a less than 1000 vote difference between Republicans and Democrats. The strong GOP turnout amongst the rural counties is the only thing that is blunting the Democratic raw vote advantage in Clark County of about 60K. With Washoe coming in about even, and the rural counties coming in at perhaps 25K (They are already +17K for the Republicans so far) in favor of the Republicans total, this would result in the Democrats having a raw vote lead of 50K. With an 80% turnout, this would result in a lead for Obama of just over 5%. This is good news for Sen. Dean Heller, who has been polling 4-6% ahead of Auton-American Shelley Berkley (D Â– Nestene Consiousness). This is assuming that 2012 will play out similar to 2008 when it comes down to relative advantage between early votes, absentee votes, and election day votes. For example, the advantage for the Democrats in early voting (22% on the 13th day of early voting), dropped to 14Â½% by election day. Perhaps a more ominous comparison then 2008 is actually 2010. In 2010 the early vote spread matched up with the total vote spread, being 8%. If 2012 follows 2010, than the Democrats would a voter lead in Clark County of over 100 votes, with a total statewide lead of 75K votes, all else equal. This would result in not only an Obama victory, but could clench the Senate seat for Auton-American Shelley Berkley (D Â– Nestene Consiousness). Ironically, even though 2010 was a good year for Republicans in Nevada (Harry ReidÂ’s reelection aside), the turnout trends would be worse if applied to 2012. If it is true what the RNC is saying, and the Dems have burned through far more of their high propensity voters, than a 2008 trend might be the more plausible one. More: http://politicalhat.com/?p=434

Posted by: The Political Hat at November 02, 2012 02:13 PM (XvHmy)

186 It should be noted that even if this scenario is absolutely true, it is STILL important for everyone to do the "broken glass" thing, so that Obamacare isn't replaced with something just as craptacular. We want the House and Senate to go into the meetings with a "Oh, HELLZ no!" attitude. Even if you're in California. Even if you're in freakin' Hawaii.

This needs to be as big a bitchstomp as absolutely possible -- not just in electoral, but also in popular votes.

Posted by: cthulhu at November 02, 2012 02:14 PM (kaalw)

187 >>>I trust Barone as well. He is top shelf. But what the hell is wrong with Rasmussen? How did R lose 2 points in 1 day? Someone here had a theory about that, even before that poll came out. I wonder who that would be? Someone predicted that even before the RCP average began swinging back in Obama's favor, and was countered by a commenter here calling him a dumbass because the swing was caused by lack of Rasmussen's new poll being included. Gee, I wonder who it was who made the prediction, then noted the RCP average was swinging back toward Obama as he predicted, then was told he's an idiot because Rasmussen hadn't weighed in yet? Oh and now Rasmussen weighed in. Gee, I wonder what Rasmussen had to say?

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 02, 2012 02:14 PM (SKX2R)

188 154 Huffpos pollster called PV for Romney today.

PV? That's one of dad's 57 states that are in the magical formula that you people have no idea about.

Posted by: Greg, Nate Silver's love child at November 02, 2012 02:15 PM (wR+pz)

189 Be real nice to bag Nevada

Posted by: Texas Thunder at November 02, 2012 02:15 PM (USAZo)

190 I wonder if I should buy pudding before Tuesday? I'm worried the shelves will be emptied out.

Posted by: sinmi on the phone at November 02, 2012 02:15 PM (utdP+)

191 We probably won't get the senate though and Reid has already said he will not work with Romney. This could be a tough 4 years and Romney could face a very tough re-election. I hope I'm wrong.. maybe Mitt can work some magic on Harry.

Posted by: jewells45 says Romney wins in a landslide at November 02, 2012 02:15 PM (1hNQS)

192 God is indeed on Obama's side, mostly because it puts Him in a better position to kick Obama in the ass.

Posted by: Christina Hendricks's Mighty Jugs Teams Up With Mitt Romney's Hair to Defeat SCOAMF at November 02, 2012 02:16 PM (+AV7H)

193 Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 02, 2012 06:14 PM (SKX2R)

Take your eeyorism and choke on it, bitch.

Posted by: Christina Hendricks's Mighty Jugs Teams Up With Mitt Romney's Hair to Defeat SCOAMF at November 02, 2012 02:17 PM (+AV7H)

194 Reid is a disgusting little man. Why does Nevada send him to the Senate when Texas sends people like Ted Cruz?

Posted by: Texas Thunder at November 02, 2012 02:17 PM (USAZo)

195 Well, if Tom Smith doesn't win the Senate seat in PA, it won't be from lack of trying. He's been carpet bombing the airwaves, radio and TV, for the past 3 weeks nonstop. Even I am getting a little tired of seeing his mother.......

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at November 02, 2012 02:17 PM (YmPwQ)

196

I love reading about this stuff but I am starting to reach my saturation point.

I would almost kill for a cheerleader scandal.

Posted by: BW Bandy at November 02, 2012 02:17 PM (65Ud6)

197 >>> 149 Sunny? As in The Gang Runs For Office?

In a just world, that show would be more popular than fucking Seinfeld (yawn) or fucking Everybody Loves Raymond (jeezus) ever were.

Posted by: Punahou Death Stare at November 02, 2012 02:18 PM (sTS/8)

198 Dave in Fla has some good numbers for the Senate eyeores.

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at November 02, 2012 02:18 PM (YmPwQ)

199

What is intrade's likely voter screen? How do they weed out foreign bets?

And I'm wondering when we pusblish our "Hey 45%" memos do we put them on white cards or do we write that on our hand?

At this point, I am considerign "Cheer up. Your guy lost but he is still a SCOAMF."

Posted by: California Red at November 02, 2012 02:19 PM (Ho3p+)

200 Dave in Fla has some good numbers for the Senate eyeores.

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at November 02, 2012 06:18 PM (YmPwQ)

There are no good numbers for eyeores. Because they are eyeores.

Posted by: Oldcat at November 02, 2012 02:20 PM (z1N6a)

201 I would almost kill for a cheerleader scandal.

Posted by: BW Bandy at November 02, 2012 06:17 PM (65Ud6)

Would hookers do?

Posted by: Sen Mantenize at November 02, 2012 02:20 PM (wR+pz)

202 And I'm not worried about Romney's re-election just yet. Ye gods and little fishes!

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at November 02, 2012 02:20 PM (YmPwQ)

203 >>>What is intrade's likely voter screen? Intrade isn't a polling firm. They don't use one, I don't think. It's a place for people to buy or sell shares based on their guestimate of an event's *taking place*. Actually taking place.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 02, 2012 02:21 PM (SKX2R)

204

208....sigh, this is true.

Even after Romney wins some folks around here will find something to complain about.

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at November 02, 2012 02:21 PM (YmPwQ)

205 >>> 204 I would almost kill for a cheerleader ~~scandal~~ picture.

Posted by: Punahou Death Stare at November 02, 2012 02:21 PM (sTS/8)

206 umm . . . that didn't work . . .

Posted by: Punahou Death Stare at November 02, 2012 02:22 PM (sTS/8)

207 201 Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 02, 2012 06:14 PM (SKX2R)

Take your eeyorism and choke on it, bitch.

Posted by: Christina Hendricks's Mighty Jugs Teams Up With Mitt Romney's Hair to Defeat SCOAMF at November 02, 2012 06:17 PM (+AV7H)

Did you notice it only appeared after the second debate in the live comment threads. Irritatingly stupid concern troll.

Posted by: NWConservative at November 02, 2012 02:22 PM (M1gmo)

208 >>>How do they weed out foreign bets? They don't "weed out foreign bets". It's a trading market. In fact, I was going to buy some Romney shares, but I didn't feel like giving them all the info they asked for in order to comply with *Irish* banking laws.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 02, 2012 02:22 PM (SKX2R)

209 mama winger, thanks for the heads-up about the Ryan rally. I'll be there, even though I was planning on getting up extra early on Tuesday to vote before work. It's not like I'll be getting much sleep that night anyway.

Posted by: Donna V. at November 02, 2012 02:23 PM (7OHl8)

210 Boner.

Of any pundit, Barone is the best when it comes to national elections. He knows the important states down to the buroughs/precincts' and their historical turnouts and everything.

Thanks Ace. Made my day.

Posted by: eureka! at November 02, 2012 02:24 PM (UL+ny)

211 Everybody Loves Raymond (jeezus) ever were. Sorry, Raymond is gold in my conservative suburban home. Thank you for your input.

Posted by: Oldsailors Poet, Wonders what Dagny thinks at November 02, 2012 02:24 PM (kc2b9)

212 >>>Did you notice it only appeared after the second debate Well, Romney kind of rocked in the first debate, if you hadn't noticed. In the second debate, I was aghast he wasn't going after Obama more for Benghazi. And Crowley tripped him up with her lie and favoritism, obviously.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 02, 2012 02:24 PM (SKX2R)

213 Oh for fucks sake. If Romney wins 315 of course we take the Senate.

If Romney wins 315, then we hold NV and MA, then pick up PA, VA, OH, MO, ND, NE, WI, and MT. We potentially lose IN and we definitely lose ME, but he could caucus with GOP.

That is at is at least a net +6 and a 53 seat majority.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at November 02, 2012 02:24 PM (dX4hn)

214 So uh...how good is Barone's track record on this stuff? I know he's a smart guy, certainly no Dick Morris...

Posted by: LukeinNE at November 02, 2012 02:25 PM (7C3yQ)

215 221 Oh for fucks sake. If Romney wins 315 of course we take the Senate.

If Romney wins 315, then we hold NV and MA, then pick up PA, VA, OH, MO, ND, NE, WI, and MT. We potentially lose IN and we definitely lose ME, but he could caucus with GOP.

That is at is at least a net +6 and a 53 seat majority.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at November 02, 2012 06:24 PM (dX4hn)

Nope. Not possible. We will take 400 electoral votes and lose three seats this cycle. We may lose all of them!!! /s

Posted by: NWConservative at November 02, 2012 02:26 PM (M1gmo)

216 Anyway, the person who's asking these questions about Intrade. There's nothing wrong with your questions. They're intelligent and well-thought out. But your premise is wrong, so you're missing the mark. You don't yet understand what Intrade is. Please read their about page page or equivalent, or even the Wikipedia article on Intrade, and then you'll understand what it is and how it isn't a poll.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 02, 2012 02:26 PM (SKX2R)

217

I get it Samwise. I was making the point (I guess poorly) that a vegas betting line on political outcomes might not be the best indicator of things to come. People place bets on emotion and irrational analysis of data. And if this betting site allows one guy to place lots on money on Barack....Or if this betting site lets foreigners place lots of money on Barack.....it would affect the line right?

Posted by: California Red at November 02, 2012 02:30 PM (Ho3p+)

218 Ah, cool. Seen.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 02, 2012 02:32 PM (SKX2R)

219 Dave.. I was going by my husband who was looking at the polling in some of the states. I was just passing by the office and he said it didn't look good.. so I'm not being an eyore. He is pretty good at understanding the polls but hey.. I hope he's wrong as hell. Won't be the first time! lol

Posted by: jewells45 says Romney wins in a landslide at November 02, 2012 02:33 PM (1hNQS)

220

As we speak, Air Canada and Air France are rushing to add flights, expand first-class seating, and replace any wobbly wheels on the liquor trolleys. They're gonna get a workout next week.

Posted by: sherlock at November 02, 2012 02:34 PM (BaQuW)

221 Anyway, as for your point/hypothesis, Calfornia Red, yeah, that's a reasonable argument against prediction markets. But that said, one of the benefits of trading markets is the so-called "wisdom of crowds". The idea that a Michael Barone, Nate Silver, or Karl Rove or whomever, may be brilliant, but still, on average, get out-performed by masses of people making their individual judgements. And there's historical bases to support that too, and even Intrade has often (not always!) gotten it right. It's an ongoing debate, that's for sure. Expanding the point a bit, it's similar to the difference between a top-down command economy and a free economy. Both may screw up, but the conservative and libertarian positions are that generally the latter will be better.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 02, 2012 02:36 PM (SKX2R)

222 Remember the 2 University of Colorado profs who predicted a R/R win back in August and again in September? They've called it right since 1980. I remember they gave Romney over 300 EV's and had him winning PA, OH and WI to Romney (and Iowa and Michigan to Obama). In August, I thought PA for Romney was quite improbable. It doesn't seem quite so improbable now. Of course, even with 25 fewer EV's than they predicted, RR would still win. It will be interesting to compare their pre-debate predictions with the actual results.

Posted by: Donna V. at November 02, 2012 02:39 PM (7OHl8)

223 Jewels, what state do you live in?

Posted by: Donna V. at November 02, 2012 02:39 PM (7OHl8)

224 Donna I live in Missouri.

Posted by: jewells45 says Romney wins in a landslide at November 02, 2012 02:43 PM (1hNQS)

225 why is that TWAT WAFFLE LOSER Samdumb Gamgee the 3rd still here?

Posted by: Evilpens at November 02, 2012 02:45 PM (ck76k)

226 Here's a strange one....I took the XBox Live Presidential poll. I was expecting some lopsided Obama number given the demographics of the Xbox community (for the record, I'm 40-something). Turns out Romney leads 48-46. Don't know if that means anything but what the hell, it's as valid as any other poll at this point.

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at November 02, 2012 02:48 PM (YmPwQ)

227 If Romney loses, at least we'll know all that shit in the Book of Revelations is true, and the anti-christ will be making his debut by next summer at the latest.

Posted by: tdpwells at November 02, 2012 02:51 PM (7vA7k)

228 234 "Here's a strange one....I took the XBox Live Presidential poll. I was expecting some lopsided Obama number given the demographics of the Xbox community (for the record, I'm 40-something). Turns out Romney leads 48-46. Don't know if that means anything but what the hell, it's as valid as any other poll at this point."

I'd love to see Master Chief talking to an empty chair. Most videogame heroes seem like Republicans. Videogames are one of the few modes of entertainment that the left has not totally ruined. I actually think there might be a majority of videogamers who are quietly conservative sort of in the "South Park conservative" way; they dislike everyone but hate liberal nannies the most.

Posted by: Naes at November 02, 2012 02:56 PM (r4dYV)

229 I was so pumped a week ago, and seemed everyone was, things were looking good. Now suddenly there seems to be so much doubt with just days to go.

Starting to think Ohio is just not going to happen. If that doesnt happen, how can anything else go right that needs to go right?

I still cant wrap my brain around how this is even close. Granted, the media is a corrupt bunch of dirt bags that need to be physically beaten down. But given that, it is sad to see that so many people are just so stupid.

If Romney loses, I must say it isnt because of him. Honestly, he's run a very good campaign. If he loses, its because we certainly have a lot of just plain stupid people in this country, and perhaps its destiny to receive the hell we will if Obama gets another 4 years.

Posted by: Doomed at November 02, 2012 03:52 PM (Gr8DF)

230 "btw, if Nate Silver is feeling heat from conservatives now, just you
wait... if Romney wins this he is going to be brutalized by the left for
giving them false hope.

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 02, 2012 05:51 PM (UypUQ)"

That thought makes me very, very happy.

Posted by: Clint at November 02, 2012 04:27 PM (IJDTs)

231 Re: Intrade...

The issue with Intrade isn't that foreigners can "vote" or even that campaigns (particularly childish ones that focus on Binders and Big Bird) likely spend money to try to skew it.

The issue with Intrade *is* that with the new restrictions on internet gambling in the U.S., it's so hard to get money to and from Intrade that most Americans don't bother. So it's *really* skewed towards what foreigners think.

It's a shame, really. A good predictive market where we could all "put our money where our mouth is" would really be nice to have.

Posted by: Clint at November 02, 2012 04:31 PM (IJDTs)

232 I beat Barone to the 315 number 2 days ago!! http://bit.ly/Yq0Zb0

Posted by: Giacomo at November 02, 2012 07:18 PM (LROPO)

233 I work at a University in Cleveland, and I remember 4 years ago there were a ton of booths set-up to register voters through an ACORN affiliate, there were posters all over campus for Obama, and a day didn't go by where a dem didn't knock on my door. This year there are no posters, no ACORN booths, and only 1 dem knocked on my door (the hippy ran away at top speed the second I said I like to work for a living)...anecdotally speaking, things are looking up in Cuayahoga county.

Posted by: Lou at November 02, 2012 08:04 PM (SdwJc)

234 Doomed, do you really think a bunch of people will change their minds because : "Oh, look, Obama's in a bomber jacket?"

Posted by: Donna V. at November 02, 2012 10:31 PM (7OHl8)

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