Ace of Spades HQ

October 20, 2012

(Bounced) Florida now gone for Obama
— CAC

Long meandering thought from me:

First North Carolina, now Florida. While I've been saying they've been gone for a while, the eighth straight poll giving Romney a lead makes it pretty irrefutable. The President will not publicly concede it, because it would look terrible. But Romney is enjoying a close but consistent lead now.

The next two most Romney-loving states, Virginia and Colorado, may start dropping in line soon. Rasmussen gave us another R+ poll in the Old Dominion, and PPP could only get O+1 in their most recent paid poll released Wednesday. Not to mention the Kimball Poll and Gravis release earlier in the week. (Sorry this post is train-of-thought).

Ohio of course is the big beast. Until pollsters start showing a more realistic D/R/I, we will keep getting results like the new Fox poll giving Obama a 46-43 lead while bleeding independents to Romney by twenty-four points which of course totally jives totally. Romney has quietly picked off other states and closed the gap in a plethora of light-blue ones in the two weeks since the first debate, now rising to 261 electoral votes on RCP's latest chart- 9 short of beating the President (gaining the aforementioned Virginia and New Hampshire today).

Wisconsin and Ohio are trading places with smaller margins for the President back and forth. If it remains a tight race it would not shock me to see both go to the winner with a margin of a half-point or less between them.

I need to repeat something I've said in posts, in the comments, and on twitter: this is not about Romney hitting 270- it is about Obama keeping 270. In the polling averages, he is. In my projection, he isn't. But the difference between RCP and AOSHQDD is now just 18 EVs (Ohio). The President has lost North Carolina, Indiana, Nebraska's 2nd, Florida, and is watching Virginia slip away, Colorado by a slight margin as well, and now New Hampshire. His "firewall" states are now reduced to Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio- states he still leads in on averages, but wherein Romney has made serious gains. A collapse in the first two, he is an ex-President. Wisconsin? One-termer. Ohio? Hello, President Romney. There are a lot of fires the President must continuously put out now. Some, he's stayed on top of...while he was still making Romney fight for Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and the weak two (CO/NH). Now that the race is going to shift into these new battlegrounds, there is little room for error for the President. If he starts to slip in any of the following routes: Wisconsin Ohio Nevada-Iowa Michigan, he is done. The map has shrunk for him and now things get interesting. Now is the time for boldness, and looks like Romney-Ryan is starting that up, upping ad buys in Boston (targeting New Hampshire perhaps to keep it as a weak pickup/strengthin Romney's new margin there), Michigan, and sending Ryan to Western Pennsylvania.

There could still be a 'game changer' at this point back into the President's favor, but the debates don't look like it, as PPP and even Marist's whack polling have shown no bounce for him (and in the case of Rasmussen's report about tomorrow, a negative one). What I stressed with Drew in that shoddy podcast was this: look at all the polls, look for the trends, check the crosstabs. All three are leaning Romney, it is up to us to keep them going that way.

Update:

Even Baghdad Nate is waiving the white flag regarding Florida. (pshop thanks to Slu)

Posted by: CAC at 11:21 AM | Comments (533)
Post contains 607 words, total size 4 kb.

1 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at October 19, 2012 02:52 PM (Ts9tU)

2 I might write a campaign song for Romney. Anything is better than that crap Springsteen wrote for Obama. Hell, I'm a capitalist at heart!

Posted by: Jimmy Buffet at October 19, 2012 02:55 PM (OiC7K)

3 When they start going to PA, it could be over. Close, but over.

Posted by: Interested Party at October 19, 2012 02:55 PM (RE+1w)

4 Like your preference cascade? You're welcome

Posted by: Lindsay Lohan at October 19, 2012 02:55 PM (0Gygk)

5 On my command.....begin sucking dicks.

Posted by: EC at October 19, 2012 02:56 PM (doBIb)

6 Go big- ask for more debates. (I'm laughing hard at the Onion's Obama's Home Teleprompter Fails in the sidebar)

Posted by: t-bird at October 19, 2012 02:56 PM (FcR7P)

minor quibble-

jives ---> jibes

Posted by: Grammar Grampa at October 19, 2012 02:57 PM (/LkSO)

8 I'm shooting for the last comment before Ace stops all over this post. I'm guessing it won't be long.

Posted by: Whoever this is, it's definitely not Michael at October 19, 2012 02:57 PM (JVCVF)

9 Say, this Obama fellow is starting to look like a loser. I like that.

Posted by: huerfano at October 19, 2012 02:58 PM (bAGA/)

10 CAC, What did you think of my chart the other day?

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 19, 2012 02:58 PM (zrpqj)

11 Hey, maybe we'll all get Romnesia this weekend and Obama will be back on top next week!

Posted by: rockmom at October 19, 2012 02:58 PM (qe2/V)

12 Aha, ha. CAC's gonna get a whoopin' when Ace finds out you stepped on his post.

Posted by: dogfish at October 19, 2012 02:58 PM (N2yhW)

13 How's Allen West doing? ....Anyone know?

Posted by: wheatie at October 19, 2012 02:58 PM (ipkPX)

14 Way to stick it to ace on that post he put up 2 minutes ago; he's not the boss of you.

Posted by: Dr Spank at October 19, 2012 02:59 PM (0muQ0)

15 In before the stompening

Posted by: fluffy at October 19, 2012 03:00 PM (O6q63)

16 If Obama takes Ohio, then (assuming everything else goes the way it looks now) Romney will have to make up 12 points from the following: Nevada (6), Iowa (6), Wisconsin (10), and New Hampshire (4). Very difficult, particularly given the propensity for shenanigans in Nevada and NH.

Maybe we get lucky, and Obama confuses Vince Lombardi with Jerry Sandusky, and accuses Green Bay of being a town full of pedophiles.

Posted by: wooga at October 19, 2012 03:00 PM (vjyZP)

17 "Wisconsin and Ohio are trading places with smaller margins for the President back and forth. If it remains a tight race it would not shock me to see both go to the winner with a margin of a half-point or less between them."

Do not think for one second this is in the bag for Romney.

Why not? MASSIVE VOTE FRAUD.

I am a tiny red dot in a deep blue city in a deep blue county in a deep blue state.

Last week, the postal carrier came round with the cards confirming our voter registration. He said, "Man! These things are driving us nuts. You know that there are a lot of houses round here that get like six of them?"

Wait a consarn minute here.

I know this neighborhood well. I've doorwalked it during local political campaigns. The average number of adult registered voters here is not above 1.7,or I'll eat my hat. It may have ticked up slightly from that level due to college-grad kids moving back in with Mom and Dad due to the Obamaconomy.

But six registered voters per address would be highly anomalous round here even at one address. When there are "a lot" of such households? You don't have to have a keen nose to smell a rat.

Multiply this by tens of millions all across America. Get worried. And GOTV. Call, volunteer, drive, do whatever you can.

This obviously isn't a swing state. I will be going to a swing state myself on behalf of R-R as soon as it's clear where I will help make the biggest dent in Barky's chances.

Posted by: torquewrench at October 19, 2012 03:00 PM (ymG7s)

18 Florida? I stuck my fingers in her.

Posted by: Dianne Feinstein at October 19, 2012 03:01 PM (O6q63)

19 Speaking of firewalls, CAC is going to need one. Don't drop your map.

Posted by: Whoever this is, it's definitely not Michael at October 19, 2012 03:01 PM (JVCVF)

20 wheatie...I read somewhere that Allen West was up by 9 points in some poll. So there is that. He is the awesome, so you would think he will win his race.

Posted by: Some Guy in Wisconsin at October 19, 2012 03:01 PM (Uq5Hs)

21 I don't see a map.

Posted by: Schrödinger's cat at October 19, 2012 03:02 PM (feFL6)

"How's Allen West doing? ....Anyone know?"

Saw poll somewhere. I think it was up 52-43ish. Praying that's right. He's my favorite politician.

Posted by: Beagle at October 19, 2012 03:02 PM (sOtz/)

23 13 check RCP - saw a latest poll where he was +1

viewing FOX they just said their latest poll has Romney +3 in Florida, and now only down 3 in Ohio - where he is gaining with women and independents

Posted by: This Administration Lies at October 19, 2012 03:03 PM (0upWk)

24 Saw poll somewhere. I think it was up 52-43ish.Praying that's right. He's my favorite politician.

Posted by: Beagle at October 19, 2012 07:02 PM (sOtz/)

It was a headline at Hot Air earlier, I didn't read the story though so I don't know any of the details.

Posted by: Adam at October 19, 2012 03:03 PM (/YJYi)

25 CAC,

What do you think are Romney's chances of snagging one EV from Maine?

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 19, 2012 03:04 PM (2b4yb)

26 Aha, ha. CAC's gonna get a whoopin' when Ace finds out you stepped on his post.

I dunno. CAC's post is like, about something. Ace's was about somebody named Tom Hanks.

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 19, 2012 03:04 PM (4+LTj)

27 Yeah, anyone want to know what the Fox Ohio poll really is?

Of course you do!

2008 turnout - Romney +2.38%
2010 turnout - Romney +8.01%
2004 turnout - Romney +10.92%
D+3 turnout - Romney +5.45%

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 19, 2012 03:04 PM (dX4hn)

28 Yes, I also want to know about our chances with that one ME ev.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 19, 2012 03:05 PM (zrpqj)

29 OT:

Over the last few days here in NE PA, the number of R/R yard signs have exploded. They're everywhere....20 to 1 against O/B signs, (based on a driving around, and horribly unscientific count on my part this afternoon). Granted this is a red county anyway, but there was nothing like this when McShitsandwich was running.

Posted by: Sticky Wicket at October 19, 2012 03:05 PM (L7hol)

30 I've been going around to newspaper sites where the state is supposed to go for BO. I've been commenting that they "better get on board, that they are missing the opportunity and do they want to be known as the only state the president won? They'll get the reputation of being stupid" It's fun to watch the reactions.

Posted by: What do you do all day if you don't watch tv, anne? at October 19, 2012 03:05 PM (oZfic)

31 I think in a week, we're going to wonder why we were ever worried about Ohio. I'd just like to let Obama know that if he likes his Ohio electoral votes, he can keep his Ohio electoral votes.

Posted by: Whoever this is, it's definitely not Michael at October 19, 2012 03:05 PM (JVCVF)

32 Regarding Michigan, I just want to anecdotally add that I live in a college town here in a county that went 65% Obama in '08, and see way more Romney signs than Obama signs. (And perhaps just as significantly, people don't seem to be stealing them.) If signs were votes, Romney has won this city and will win the state. Really, it probably speaks to an enthusiasm gap that won't be directly reflected in the actual vote... but I'm definitely hopeful here.

One drawback for Romney is that there are basically 3 union proposals on the ballot, so you can bet unions are going to be push push pushing their members to the polls.

Posted by: longerthoughts at October 19, 2012 03:06 PM (CVVLU)

33 What are you talking about? Florida is still to close to call, see our new poll.

Posted by: Shep Smith and the other lefties on FNC at October 19, 2012 03:06 PM (hO9ad)

34 27 - thanks Dave in FL

Posted by: Big Star at October 19, 2012 03:06 PM (0upWk)

Two things I want when we win:

1. Repeal the Obamacare abomination

2. Shred that regulation on dishwasher soap that makes my glasses look like shit out of the dishwasher. That shit's gotta stop.

Do that and I'm happy.

Posted by: AnabolicState at October 19, 2012 03:06 PM (nGsOy)

Thanks for the update, SomeGuy and Beagle.

Been worried about Allen West...since they did that 'redistricting' that added a shit ton of Dem-voters to his district.

And yeah, he's great isn't he.

I would hate to lose him in the House.

Posted by: wheatie at October 19, 2012 03:06 PM (ipkPX)

37 Nice stuff CAC. But is ace giving you writing pointers now?

Posted by: Meremortal!! at October 19, 2012 03:06 PM (1Y+hH)

38 Geraghty had something very interesting at NRO- stats that showed Ohio tracked the national popular vote almost exactly in the last few elections.

If Romney is up 3, 4, 5 points nationally, he's taking Ohio.

Posted by: Bat Chain Puller at October 19, 2012 03:06 PM (T+yaH)

39 30 I've been going around to newspaper sites where the state is supposed to go for BO. I've been commenting that they "better get on board, that they are missing the opportunity and do they want to be known as the only state the president won? They'll get the reputation of being stupid" It's fun to watch the reactions. Remember Johnny Carson in 1984? "I'd like to congratulate Walter Mondale on being elected President of Minnesota."

Posted by: Whoever this is, it's definitely not Michael at October 19, 2012 03:06 PM (JVCVF)

40
# 26:

I dunno. CAC's post is like, about something. Ace's was about somebody named Tom Hanks.

That name's familiar. Didn't some guy named Forest Gump play him in a movie a few years back?

Posted by: Sticky Wicket at October 19, 2012 03:07 PM (L7hol)

41 Something to Remember about Ohio and the heavy + Dem Sample. From 08 to 12 Party affiliation has shifted drastically. In 2012, Democrats went from 1.48 million down to 827,000. That is a loss of 653,000. Republicans went from 1.3 million down to 894,000. That is a loss of 412,000. The most dramatic change however was in unaffiliated voters. This segment of voters rose from 5.1 million to 6.3 million If romney is out polling Obama there among independents, which if i recall he is, makes Ohio a more lean romney than what they say. We need to turn them bitches OUT

Posted by: sliderblaze at October 19, 2012 03:07 PM (b1ead)

42 Flying pig moment: Andrea Mitchell reports on Obama's "not optimal" comment and the Congressional document dump. It's almost an evenhanded news story.

Posted by: Jim in Virginia at October 19, 2012 03:07 PM (5pMyq)

43 I'm still waiting for some devastating October surprise from Team Obama-the SOBs

Posted by: FeneloonSpoke at October 19, 2012 03:08 PM (u1lkY)

44
# 35:

Pick up some TSP from your local hardware store....add about a tablespoon or two to each dishwasher load, (adjusting as needed). Works great in your clothes washer two.

Posted by: Sticky Wicket at October 19, 2012 03:09 PM (L7hol)

35 Two things I want when we win:

Give me back my light bulbs!

Posted by: Jim in Virginia at October 19, 2012 03:09 PM (5pMyq)

CAC, can we have a Senate map?

Posted by: Jim in Virginia at October 19, 2012 03:10 PM (5pMyq)

47 43 I'm still waiting for some devastating October surprise from Team Obama-the SOBs Posted by: FeneloonSpoke at October 19, 2012 07:08 PM (u1lkY) Yeah after all of his bravado now today heard Morris say he's terribly worried about this. Dana Perino said this yesterday. Maybe those two should take a couple of vacation days, we don't need any worriers now...we need worker bees with optimism!

Posted by: What do you do all day if you don't watch tv, anne? at October 19, 2012 03:10 PM (oZfic)

48 The BBC reports that earlier today "A huge car bomb has killed at least eight people and injured 78 in central Beirut, Lebanese officials say." Hours later, the White House released a statement condemning the "terrorist attack." "The United States condemns in the strongest terms the terrorist attack today in Beirut that killed Lebanese Internal Security Forces Information Bureau Director Wissam al-Hassan and at least seven others, and wounded dozens more," said national security council spokesman Tommy Vietor. In libya? Not so much

Posted by: Nevergiveup at October 19, 2012 03:10 PM (j1gX1)

49 That shit's gotta stop.
Do that and I'm happy.

Posted by: AnabolicState at October 19, 2012 07:06 PM (nGsOy)

And light bulbs - I want my light bulbs back.

Posted by: someone at October 19, 2012 03:10 PM (bqjJT)

50 There are no red states or blue states. There are just states full of retards like california and New York or states sick and tired of that mother fucking scoamf.

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 19, 2012 03:11 PM (ovpNn)

51 Re: 43,

Yeah, my big worry is not so much an Oct. surprise, but some big anti-Romney story released the day before, or day off, the election. Because you do it then - it doesn't even matter if it's true as long as people believe it. Romney can prove it a complete fabrication on Nov. 7 and that's one day too late.

Vote fraud also worries me. Basically, I think we'd win a fair election, and hope we get one.

Posted by: longerthoughts at October 19, 2012 03:11 PM (CVVLU)

52 West spozed to be up by 9, debating Murphy tonight.

Posted by: Palm Beach Pooter Hound at October 19, 2012 03:11 PM (ufLRj)

53 Posted by: What do you do all day if you don't watch tv, anne? at October 19, 2012 07:05 PM (oZfic)

Wait, what? You don't just troll us?

You're like, a troll for trolling's sake?

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 19, 2012 03:11 PM (4+LTj)

54 here at work they had cbs news on, ugh. they showed Obama happily talking about romnesia. laughing at his own 'joke' and just being pathetic going after mitt. then they went and talked about romney getting more aggressive as well and used a clip from the debate of him speaking calm and evenly about Obama being a failure. such pathetic hacks.

Posted by: buzzion at October 19, 2012 03:11 PM (eff0F)

Four dead in O-HI-O..

la da da da dadah...

*plays a little air guitar*

Oh wait, that was Libya... hardy har har

Posted by: Joey Nuk Nyuks Biden at October 19, 2012 03:12 PM (wAQA5)

56 "He's my favorite politician." That's because he's not a politician. He is a statesman who loves his country. And oh by the way, a truly intelligent man. Not like....

Posted by: teej says go K-State at October 19, 2012 03:12 PM (RYVE/)

57
# 43:

I'm still waiting for some devastating October surprise from Team Obama-the SOBs

Gloria Allred apparently has something simmering on the back burner. She's saving it to drop on R/R at the last possible moment which will give it legs, and affect the vote, but not enough time for R/R to debunk it. So...her usual tricks.

Posted by: Sticky Wicket at October 19, 2012 03:12 PM (L7hol)

58 # 35:

Pick up some TSP from your local hardware store....add about a tablespoon or two to each dishwasher load, (adjusting as needed). Works great in your clothes washer two.

And "TSP" is Trisodium Phosphate.

Posted by: Al at October 19, 2012 03:12 PM (MzQOZ)

59 I'm still waiting for some devastating October surprise from Team Obama-the SOBs

You heard that the one that was supposed to show up on the 'net turned out to be a Rick Roll, right?

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 19, 2012 03:12 PM (4+LTj)

60 43 I'm still waiting for some devastating October surprise from Team Obama-the SOBs Posted by: FeneloonSpoke at October 19, 2012 07:08 PM (u1lkY) Obama will wait until after the last debate, Romney won't be able to refute it on a national stage. If the debate is close, Obama's team will throw anything he can at Romney.

Posted by: MidGeorgian at October 19, 2012 03:12 PM (qBGUl)

61 Flying pig moment: Andrea Mitchell reports on Obama's "not optimal" comment and the Congressional document dump. It's almost an evenhanded news story.

Posted by: Jim in Virginia at October 19, 2012 07:07 PM (5pMyq)

I was just thinking they might not be willing to carry his water much longer due to the absolutely unorganized MCF the Libya scandal is turning out to be. Nobody in the adminstration is telling the same story. State says one thing, White House another. It's just one contradiction after another. The MFM can't defend the indefensible. They try for a while because they love him so. But even love has its limits.

Posted by: Beagle at October 19, 2012 03:13 PM (sOtz/)

62 Morris has probably heard that Gloria Allred is possibly coming out with some victim from Romney's past...

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna at October 19, 2012 03:13 PM (9+ccr)

63 Jim - Over 90% chance of at least a tie in the Senate.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 19, 2012 03:13 PM (dX4hn)

64 Now would be a good time to say I TOLD YOU SO. Ohio was never going to go to Romney. He never got any traction there, even in his post first debate bounce. And with no Ohio, there is no victory. It's nice being right.

Posted by: RomneylosesOhio at October 19, 2012 03:13 PM (l5Jl8)

#44 No shizzle, eh? TSP works teh awesome! Thanks for the tip -- I'm on it.

Posted by: AnabolicState at October 19, 2012 03:13 PM (nGsOy)

66 The retard who repeats itself is back

Posted by: Nevergiveup at October 19, 2012 03:13 PM (j1gX1)

67 #51 I think a big Romney story would be an October surprise/ I just can;'t imagine team Obama not coming out with something.

Posted by: FeneloonSpoke at October 19, 2012 03:15 PM (u1lkY)

68 48 The BBC reports that earlier today "A huge car bomb has killed at least eight people and injured 78 in central Beirut, Lebanese officials say."

"Homeland angers minister over depiction of Beirut"

"A Lebanese minister has threatened to sue the makers of hit US TV series Homeland for misrepresenting Beirut in a recent episode of the show."
...
"This kind of film damages the image of Lebanon - it is not fair to us and it is not true," he told Beirut's Executive magazine.
"We want to take action, we want to write to the filmmakers and producers and demand an apology. And we are planning to raise a lawsuit against the director and the producer."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-20002148

Posted by: wooga at October 19, 2012 03:15 PM (vjyZP)

69 Dave in fla, all one has to do is to look at the tables from ningrim for Ohio 2008/2012 and see that the Republican turnout is almost equal to 2008's number and the Democrats numbers are 150,000 below their 2008 numbers. Ohio will probably be D+2 or 3. But I am thinking that we won't need Ohio since we may be getting PA and MN with possibly WI and MI.

Posted by: Barack Obama at October 19, 2012 03:15 PM (vWNz8)

70 AND the AoSHQ poll wars continue.

Posted by: Soona at October 19, 2012 03:15 PM (3zJEz)

71 Really Greg? Really?

You are really going to tie your reputation on that Fox poll?

Oh right, you have no reputation. My bad.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 19, 2012 03:15 PM (dX4hn)

72 CAC, where's this 'latest RCP chart' that has Romney at 261? I go to the electoral map they have up and it's the same 206 Romney/201 Obama it's been the past 2 days.

Posted by: drawandstrike at October 19, 2012 03:16 PM (uVLJc)

73 Ace has so little respect for Tom Hanks that Ace posted at 6:49 just so CAC could stomp on it.

Posted by: andycanuck at October 19, 2012 03:16 PM (vDl/w)

27..Great Post Dave with your breakdown of the last elections in OH and how they play out in 2012 numbers!!....I agree this is mind numbing....and Fox protects itself with that 11 point undecided margin...which is BS!! They know they have a skewed sample....that is what I said earlier....if you have a Plus 3 Dem Romney would still win...if you have 2008 Sample....Romney would win...Fox is deliberately manipulating the poll. First there is no Dem Plus 8 and there is no 11 percent undecided and you will NEVER win OH when you are losing independents by 24 points....it is absurd!

That 11 percent leaves FOX the BS ground to say they broked for Romney...which in theory would by 8 or 9 for Romney and 2 to 3 for Obama....Either way he loses. But when you publish a Poll that POLLSTERS should be required to immediately and publicly announce their sample! And them explain....it would eliminate alot of this bias BS!!

If you were Obama and saw you are losing INDEPENDENTS by 24 points with a PLUS 8 DEM sample you know you would be in trouble!

I will bet anyone cash that on election day OH will not even come close to a Plus 8 Dem Sample....

OH will easily go red!

Posted by: bluerose75 at October 19, 2012 03:16 PM (HDcKc)

75 OT Sidebar Verification Team Report - the sidebar Dali video is a repeat link to the Popinator video.

Posted by: Waterhouse at October 19, 2012 03:16 PM (DHcG+)

76 "Ohio will probably be D+2 or 3. But I am thinking that we won't need Ohio since we may be getting PA and MN with possibly WI and MI."

In which case, Romney leads by 5 in the Fox Ohio poll.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 19, 2012 03:17 PM (dX4hn)

77 meiczyslaw it claims to have defended ann romney for an entire night on twitter yet, it can't spell ann's name correctly....

Posted by: phoenixgirl, what did huma abedin know at October 19, 2012 03:17 PM (j1z2L)

78 Give the trolls a percentage point and they go fucking nuts. I guess it's all they have now.

Posted by: Soona at October 19, 2012 03:18 PM (3zJEz)

79 66 That would be a "Repeatard"

Posted by: Dept. of Accuracy Dept. at October 19, 2012 03:18 PM (BAnPT)

80 71...Dave...do not waste time with Greg...46 for an Incumbent is a disaster...plain and simple!....and that is with a PLUS 8 sample....LOL!!! Think about what Greg must really be thinking. He knows that is horrible for Obama....LOL!! But he has to keep the FRONT up here....

Posted by: bluerose75 at October 19, 2012 03:18 PM (HDcKc)

81 In a battle between a Meatball and a Furball, always bet on the one with incisors.

Posted by: GnuBreed at October 19, 2012 03:18 PM (ccXZP)

82 Now would be a good time to say I SUCK COCK BY CHOICE!

I never much cared for women, I just find tits boring and that thing between their legs is kinda gross.

And no cock, means no fun.

It's nice playing on the other team..... *sigh*

Posted by: RomneylosesParis at October 19, 2012 03:19 PM (/YJYi)

83 Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 19, 2012 07:11 PM (4+LTj) What are you babbling about? That was the stupid question asked of anne romney on the view yesterday by sherri. I heard it first thing this morning and thought not only was it nasty but it was totally dissing all the women who stay home to watch their show. How stupid was she?

Posted by: What do you do all day if you don't watch tv, anne? at October 19, 2012 03:19 PM (oZfic)

84 I made the mistake of listening to the goddamned public radio station on the drive home this afternoon. They have the goddamned "Science Friday" show on in the afternoons and sometimes it actually has real science stories. Today, however, the goddamned fill-in host had a couple of goddamned "election predictors" -- Nate Silver and some neuroscientist named Sam Wang -- who are both CERTAIN that Obama's going to get re-elected. How do they do this witchery? They read the goddamned polls. That's it. And they use their super statistician powers to eliminate "outlier" poll results which don't confirm what they want the polls to show. It was so blatantly slanted -- they didn't even bother having a token pro-Romney pollster on the show to ignore -- and so flagrantly stupid. "Here are two people who think Obama will win. They are smart people because they think that, not like those dumb people who think he will lose."

Posted by: Trimegistus at October 19, 2012 03:19 PM (yWIC7)

85 "He's my favorite politician."
That's because he's not a politician. He is a statesman who loves his country. And oh by the way, a truly intelligent man.
Not like....

Posted by: teej says go K-State at October 19, 2012 07:12 PM (RYVE/)

True. I felt a little guilty calling him that. But he is running for office, so...

I recently saw the statement which ended with the quote about the "avenging eagle" or whatever. The entire statement is brilliant and the bit at the end is intended to show the type of people we are dealing with and what works when you are trying to deal with them. But of course the media just lopped off the first eight, or whatever, paragraphs to try to make him sound unhinged.

I liked it even without the arguments at the beginning. I figured he was just speaking their language, and he was.

Posted by: Beagle at October 19, 2012 03:19 PM (sOtz/)

86 79 Or perhaps a Reretard.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 19, 2012 03:19 PM (lddO4)

87 I'm trying to figure out why he is even citing the Fox poll. He told us 2 days ago that Rasmussen is the only credible pollster.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 19, 2012 03:19 PM (dX4hn)

88 ann romney doesn't have an "e" in her first name.....but you are too dense to realize that

Posted by: phoenixgirl, what did huma abedin know at October 19, 2012 03:19 PM (j1z2L)

Posted by: RomneylosesOhio at October 19, 2012 07:13 PM (l5Jl

The usual Gerg has a "Kk" in his hash. This is somehow different. I'm sure the autofellatio is the same.

Posted by: Beagle at October 19, 2012 03:21 PM (sOtz/)

90 how much of a "diss" is it to constantly spell ann's name incorrectly? it could be considered nasty..

Posted by: phoenixgirl, what did huma abedin know at October 19, 2012 03:21 PM (j1z2L)

Romney will get 320+ and Obama about 220 or so.

Even when the dems spring their Oct suprise (looks like it will be an agreement with Iran to stop nuclear producdtion ) it wont help.

What is more important IMO after the election is the UN small arms treaty.

They will vote on it right after the election and it will pass (only needs 6o nations to do so). Obama will sign it. Reid will not let the Senate convene to vote on it. If a President signs a treaty and the Senate doesnt reject it within 30 days it becomes binding per international agreements. They may go for the global warming and or antipoverty treaty as well.

Once Romney is elected and in office he will have to fix this mess.

Posted by: retired military at October 19, 2012 03:21 PM (UbevC)

92 If you like your preference cascade, you can keep your preference cascade

Posted by: BHO at October 19, 2012 03:22 PM (z6gbu)

93 BTW, everybody remembers the guys at Breitbart.com are still holding onto the rest of those 'Obama in College' videos they claimed they had, right? They only released 1 thus far, after Ben Smith tried to do a 'controlled explosion' of it. Breitbart.com is apparently holding on to the rest of them in order to counter any 'October Surprise' the Democrats might try. That's assuming they weren't just, you know, lying about having more than 1 video.

Posted by: drawandstrike at October 19, 2012 03:22 PM (uVLJc)

94 Well Dave you do know that the only credible pollsters are ones that show Obama ahead, never mind the poll internals. This election will of course be D+ELEVENTY!!!!!1!!!!1!

Posted by: Barack Obama at October 19, 2012 03:22 PM (vWNz8)

95 Hardest hit: Mickey Mouse, Donald Duck, and all other Disney characters who vote Democrat, some several times a cycle.

Posted by: Karusky at October 19, 2012 03:23 PM (dO4L7)

96 VERY bad news folks:

I just heard that if Obama wins reelection, they're going to go ahead with Larry Crowne 2: The Golden Years.

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at October 19, 2012 03:23 PM (BuSM8)

97 Posted by: RomneylosesOhio at October 19, 2012 07:13 PM (l5Jl The usual Gerg has a "Kk" in his hash. This is somehow different. I'm sure the autofellatio is the same. Posted by: Beagle at October 19, 2012 07:21 PM (sOtz/) not when he's posting under his alternate personality. you'll notice that when the 'romneyloses' wolf, toldyaso troll is posting Greg is no where to be found.

Posted by: buzzion at October 19, 2012 03:23 PM (eff0F)

98 Retired, can't Romney just nullify the international treaties? Treaties are not a pact until death.

Posted by: Barack Obama at October 19, 2012 03:24 PM (vWNz8)

78..what point? This is decline from his last lead from FOX...he is losing Independents by 24 and he is up three with a plus 8 Dem sample...exactly what point do the trolls have? Would you feel comfortable if this was Romney down 24 with Independents and the poll slanted ridiculously Republican...I sure as heck would not!! The top line is like the Debate....CBS has 37/30 Obama won....but on the INTERNALS....Romney best Obama on the Economy 65/34....same here....the poll shows an Obama lead of three (down from last month) but internally HE IS DOWN WITH WOMEN, LOSING INDEPENDENTS and he is only ahead because FOX interviewed 8 percent more Dems...and that is not a realistic breakdown in anyone's TRUE KNOWLEDGE....and you think that is a point for trolls?

I understand that they hang on the top number but it is a falling numbers with eggshells everywhere!

Posted by: bluerose75 at October 19, 2012 03:25 PM (HDcKc)

100 It's nice being right.

How would you know?

btw: 'Internet troll' is hardly a winning strategy to lead with on your resume.

Posted by: Schrödinger's cat at October 19, 2012 03:25 PM (feFL6)

101 99 Your posts are good, but you should do something about the punctuation and capitalization. Also, moar space!

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 19, 2012 03:27 PM (lddO4)

102 This election was decided a long time ago and Romney will crush TFG!

Posted by: Velvet Ambition at October 19, 2012 03:28 PM (R8hU8)

103 The Obama campaign has been so shoddily run up until now that I can't believe any "October surprise" would be effective at all. They'll probably pull out something else from Sesame Street again. Idiots.

Posted by: Hobbitopoly at October 19, 2012 03:28 PM (d6TfZ)

104 100 Depends. The Rod must be looking for a few good trolls.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 19, 2012 03:29 PM (lddO4)

105 Headline: Ignorant Republicans think Florida is gone. It's clearly still attached to the United States

Posted by: New York Times at October 19, 2012 03:29 PM (AREf/)

106 What's the sanctions for not honoring a treaty? ARe they going to fucking invade us? LOL!

Posted by: Redd at October 19, 2012 03:29 PM (RoEtU)

107 98 - Yeah, that is what I was thinking. Pretty sure Bush unilaterally decided to withdraw from the ABM treaty. The UN can't force us to remain in a treaty.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 19, 2012 03:30 PM (dX4hn)

108 103 Doesn't have to be the campaign. It can be the Media.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 19, 2012 03:30 PM (lddO4)

109 101...LOL...you are right....I am using a connection that types off sometimes and does not space or punctuate the way I would like....thank you though!

Posted by: bluerose75 at October 19, 2012 03:30 PM (HDcKc)

110 What is more important IMO after the election is the UN small arms treaty.
They will vote on it right after the election and it will pass (only needs 6o nations to do so). Obama will sign it. Reid will not let the Senate convene to vote on it. If a President signs a treaty and the Senate doesnt reject it within 30 days it becomes binding per international agreements. They maygo for the global warming and or antipoverty treaty as well.

Say we break that treaty; get the fattest Republican we can dig out of the South and get him to wipe his butt on it (symbolically).

What's the UN going to do - declare war on us, the "rogue nation"?

Like hell.

Posted by: boulder hobo at October 19, 2012 03:31 PM (QTHTd)

111 Utterly OT - Picked up the 5 yr old from dance practice. I'm convinced that there's no actual dancing practice. Until someone proves otherwise, I firmly believe theyre all in there doing meth. O...M...G. Comes flying out of there "daddydaddydaddydaddy we practiced our dance for tomorrow and it's longer than the other dance why is that and there were people not there and why is there all that grass by the road and when will the leaves fall off the trees and HEY look a crescent moon....."

Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 19, 2012 03:31 PM (GEICT)

112 OCTOBER SURPRISE: Oscar the Grouch supports Romney. Big Bird, Romney's garbageman hardest hit...

Posted by: Dante at October 19, 2012 03:31 PM (NWLVJ)

113 OT? but if Allred does have a victim it looks like one they tried to bring out in 94 about a Woman who said Mitt told her not to have an abortion even though she had a life threatening illness. All to try and get the women ,independent vote. Will it work? It didn't work in 94 and it's just conjecture whether Allred is going to do it or not. Saw this on Daily Caller...

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna at October 19, 2012 03:31 PM (9+ccr)

114 "I felt a little guilty..." Don't. We have been subjected for so long to nothing but politicians, on "both sides of the isle" that it's a natural descriptor to use. Hopefully some of the speakers we saw at the convention will have substance behind their words and be a part of turning this thing around.

Posted by: teej says go K-State at October 19, 2012 03:31 PM (ma+gB)

115 New Poster. I'm in ground zero county (Franklin Co - Columbus - the middle of the state) in ground zero state. Will keep you posted w/ what I know. Credible source who works for Gov Kasich said internal polls look ("good, not great for Romney"). All I got right now. Fight the good fight.

Posted by: ghostofhallelujah at October 19, 2012 03:31 PM (XvrTA)

116 I see that Redd's schwarz is as big as mine

Posted by: boulder hobo at October 19, 2012 03:31 PM (QTHTd)

117 2 I might write a campaign song for Romney. Anything is better than that crap Springsteen wrote for Obama. Hell, I'm a capitalist at heart!

Posted by: Jimmy Buffet at October 19, 2012 06:55 PM (OiC7K)

If it's anything like the song you did for Eric Cartman (link in sig), awesome!

Posted by: wooga at October 19, 2012 03:32 PM (vjyZP)

118 109 Could be your browser. Try Firefox.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 19, 2012 03:32 PM (lddO4)

119

Not mathematically possible.

See here? It says so right here in this binder!

*waves binder around*

Hey you, lady, yeah you the fat one. Will you come up here and wear this binder for the audience?

Aw, we love ya, lady. Hardy har har

Posted by: Joey Nuk Nyuks Biden at October 19, 2012 03:32 PM (wAQA5)

120 Since "Bert Is Evil", it is more likely that Bert will be endorsing Romney. Better yet - John Bolton.

Meme generators / photoshoppers, get on it!

Posted by: boulder hobo at October 19, 2012 03:33 PM (QTHTd)

121 Posted by: buzzion at October 19, 2012 07:11 PM

Nine months from now, "Romnesia" is gonna be the #1 name for newborn girls in da 'hood.

Posted by: MrScribbler, banned at TepidAir at October 19, 2012 03:35 PM (ZgX/g)

122 The UN can't force us to remain in a treaty.

The UN can't force much of anyone (Iraq, Syria, take your pick among others) to do much of anything. We'd do well to remind it we're bigger than them.

Posted by: Methos at October 19, 2012 03:35 PM (hO9ad)

123

First thing I want from the future Romney Cabal is free beer. And if anyone complains.... ITS MY BODY!

Posted by: Up, up with people at October 19, 2012 03:35 PM (kzFo5)

124 http://tinyurl.com/8wuqb64 THE GOP'S OHIO ADVANTAGE

Posted by: Evilpens at October 19, 2012 03:35 PM (ck76k)

125 I hope God judges Hairy Reid's soul justly.

http://tinyurl.com/8c45y7g

Posted by: Adam at October 19, 2012 03:36 PM (/YJYi)

126 Since Debbie Wasserman Schlutz is all over the country stumping (how appropriate) for TFG, what is her House race looking like? I am so hoping she is kicked hard to the curb.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 19, 2012 03:39 PM (+tqYo)

127 If they had an October surprise they would have already released it with all the early voting going on, especially after the debacle in Denver, VP crazy debate, and no bump from fat ass Candy Crowley Townhall. They are running out of time and about the only thing they have left is some abortion thing with Allred and something with Libya.

Posted by: Barack Obama at October 19, 2012 03:40 PM (vWNz8)

128 http://tinyurl.com/8wuqb64 THE GOP'S OHIO ADVANTAGE Posted by: Evilpens at October 19, 2012 07:35 PM (ck76k) from the above article: In 2008, Democrats enjoyed a 20-point advantage in early voting. We have cut that down to only 7 points at latest count and continue to gain each day. ** So when Shep Smith said on earlier show today that dems were up 20 points in early voting this is where they are getting this figure? Are they using the 2008 early voting percentages? Doesn't sound right.

Posted by: osu at October 19, 2012 03:40 PM (G4dDt)

129 125 I suspect this is what's in store for the pedophile that makes Sandusky look a rank amateur. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5Wc27KnEZY

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 19, 2012 03:41 PM (+tqYo)

130 ghostofhallelujah- Here's how we say hi to newcomers Welcome to the party pal!

Posted by: teej says go K-State at October 19, 2012 03:41 PM (cWpCn)

131 127 Not necessarily. The early voting is mostly unswayable people (and Democrat fraud).

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 19, 2012 03:43 PM (lddO4)

132 115 Posted by: ghostofhallelujah at October 19, 2012 07:31 PM (XvrTA) Welcome to the show! And please, please kick Shitwad Brown to the curb as well.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 19, 2012 03:43 PM (+tqYo)

133 If you are simply posting on various sites and wishing for victory it ain't enough. Either get involved at the local headquarters or donate to the campaign. Sitting in your underwear with a glass of Makers Mark in your hand and a smoke dangling from your gob isn't what we need. Fight and win!

Posted by: deusexmachina at October 19, 2012 03:43 PM (6RTwM)

134 So Big Bird, binders and Romnesia aren't game changers?

Posted by: RWC at October 19, 2012 03:43 PM (t+Sdx)

135 Has anyone explained to the newcomer about the tradition of ball dipping in pudding?

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 19, 2012 03:43 PM (dX4hn)

136 And "Timing is Everything" (to Leftists/Demagogues).

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 19, 2012 03:44 PM (lddO4)

137 I hope God judges Hairy Reid's soul justly.

I can assure you that barbs are involved.

Posted by: "Rock-me" Asmodeus at October 19, 2012 03:45 PM (QTHTd)

138 Who is he going to bomb?

Posted by: Jean at October 19, 2012 03:45 PM (hrAg/)

139 I'm undecided until Colin Powell makes his endorsement.

Posted by: Dunce at October 19, 2012 03:45 PM (BVkEs)

140 133 If you are simply posting on various sites and wishing for victory it ain't enough. Either get involved at the local headquarters or donate to the campaign. Sitting in your underwear with a glass of Makers Mark in your hand and a smoke dangling from your gob isn't what we need. Fight and win! Another newbie!

Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 19, 2012 03:46 PM (GEICT)

141 "So when Shep Smith said on earlier show today that dems were up 20 points in early voting this is where they are getting this figure? Are they using the 2008 early voting percentages? Doesn't sound right."

Probably using one of those debunked state polls.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 19, 2012 03:46 PM (dX4hn)

142 138 Probably Libya. Maybe Afghanistan. Leftists love killing people in Afghanistan even though they can't explain why.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 19, 2012 03:47 PM (lddO4)

143 O's son MMA fighter?

http://tinyurl.com/9sqg4w2

A judge Friday said yes to the very thing Treyvon Martin's family did not want: Defense attorneys rummaging through their son's school records and background, looking for damaging information.

Posted by: LC LaWedgie at October 19, 2012 03:47 PM (0It32)

144 Romney's % in OH won't be less than his percentage nationwide. More likely it'll exceed it by a point or so. Because that's reality. That's based upon several generations of election results. Only Goldwater over the past six decades has underperformed in OH vis-a-vis his national popular vote. So if Romney wins the popular vote he'll win OH. Media polls notwithstanding. In addition to OH the key concern is that he'll need actually to win one of those other "firewall" states, not merely talk about winning one of them. The McCain states (a given) plus IN and NC (a given) plus Florida (given) plus OH (depends on the popular vote) and VA (tough demographics for Romney, but doable) do not make him president. He would need to add one more state. Doesn't matter which one. NH, CO, IA, NV, WI, makes no difference. If conservatives finally clue in en masse, instead of remaining in various corners de facto catatonic, then Romney should be able to cross the finish line in 1st place. Lots of work remains to be done, though. The Dem-media-union-lunatic cabal won't go quietly into the night.

Posted by: Tsar Nicholas II at October 19, 2012 03:47 PM (pmsMR)

145 July 9, 2012 Subject Request for extension of TDY Security Personnel [...] while Post has made number of procedural security enhancements and security upgrades, our efforts to normalize security operations have been hindered by the host nation in security support, either static or response, an increase in foreign targets, and [unreadable] delays in issuing firearms permits for our LES close protection bodyguard unit. [unreadable]security upgrades to improve both the temporary Embassy and [unreadable] recognizing the growing challenges to Libya's fragile security environment the Department increased Post's danger pay allowance from [?] to [?] percent. [...] 6.(SBU) [...]Permits for the first 11 LES close protection team took more than 2 months and required Ambassadorial intervention with the Minister of the Interior. While post anticipates a quicker response with this next runs of permits, recruitment efforts of qualified applicants for the remaining CPT positions remains slow. _______________ TDY means Temporary Duty Assignment--and applies to the American security. this by the way is the country we were giving 1.5 billion in aid to. 1.5 billion and they can't issue permits.

Posted by: tasker at October 19, 2012 03:48 PM (r2PLg)

146 Todd Akin's October surprise: Sen. Claire McCaskillÂ’s husband used the U.S. Senate Dining Room to cut business deals selling tax credits tied to stimulus money

Posted by: Jim in Virginia at October 19, 2012 03:48 PM (5pMyq)

147 Speaking of gone, All three of you Hockey fans might want to know several games just got cancelled. Next comes your season. Good, maybe they'll show some Dukes of Hazard reruns.

Posted by: Oldsailors Poet, Wonders what Dagny thinks at October 19, 2012 03:48 PM (kc2b9)

148 If you are simply posting on various sites and wishing for victory it ain't enough. Either get involved at the local headquarters or donate to the campaign. Sitting in your underwear with a glass of Makers Mark in your hand and a smoke dangling from your gob isn't what we need. Fight and win! Posted by: deusexmachina at October 19, 2012 07:43 PM (6RTwM) Excellent point. I'm planning to volunteer to poll watch during early voting here. I've already helped convince more people to help with the precinct walking (& phone banking), and won't stop until it's time to help with the AoSDD and, of course, pudding time!

Posted by: The Political Hat at October 19, 2012 03:48 PM (XvHmy)

149 Off dirty sock

Posted by: NWConservative at October 19, 2012 03:48 PM (vWNz8)

150 "Another newbie" It was the Maker's Mark that gave it away,,,right?

Posted by: teej says go K-State at October 19, 2012 03:49 PM (GX2fm)

151 I'm laughing at the trolls who have to keep their bullshit going right through to the final "Turn out the lights the party's over..." Lame fuckers.

Posted by: SurferDoc at October 19, 2012 03:49 PM (6H6FZ)

152 42 Flying pig moment: Andrea Mitchell reports on Obama's "not optimal" comment and the Congressional document dump. It's almost an evenhanded news story. Posted by: Jim in Virginia at October 19, 2012 07:07 PM (5pMyq) He's dead, Jim.

Posted by: Bones at October 19, 2012 03:50 PM (IoNBC)

153 NH, VA, and CO are in Romney's column right now. If Ohio follows form regarding the national vote, the election is over.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 19, 2012 03:50 PM (dX4hn)

154 --btw I posted this before but in case any interested want to read it for themselves these are the State Department docs and emails that were released today. Issa's House Oversight Committee posted them. Link-- http://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/DEI-to-BHO-10-19-2012-attachments.pdf

Posted by: tasker at October 19, 2012 03:51 PM (r2PLg)

155 For what it's worth, voted in NC today. Poll lady said turnout was 2x+ previous election. There is more going on out there than the polls reflect.

Posted by: rukiddingme? at October 19, 2012 03:51 PM (MbeEN)

156 146 Democrats? Corrupt? Never.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 19, 2012 03:51 PM (lddO4)

157 Todd Akin's October surprise: Sen. Claire McCaskillÂ’s husband used the U.S. Senate Dining Room to cut business deals selling tax credits tied to stimulus money

I think I read about that on some blog

Posted by: Methos at October 19, 2012 03:51 PM (hO9ad)

158

From Moe Lane over at Redstate:

"Four years ago, Democrats made up about 42% of the early and absentee vote while Republicans made up 22% Â– a dismal 20-point deficit that contributed to Sen. John McCainÂ’s defeat in Ohio.

Through Wednesday, however, the margin has narrowed: Democrats account for 36% of the early and absentee vote while Republicans make up for 29%."

There is no 20 percent this year DEM advantage in early voting....look again...it is 7 percent...the 20 percent was from 2008 and PPP/Marist tried to say on Sat or Sun about a 20 percent lead in early voting for Dems in OH...remember CAC destroyed that on Sat (the 13th).

However, it is only 7 percent so far this election...which is a drop of 13 percent for the Dems....we are up the Dems are down!

Posted by: bluerose75 at October 19, 2012 03:51 PM (HDcKc)

159

2. Shred thatregulation on dishwasher soap that makes my glasses look like shit out of the dishwasher.That shit's gotta stop.
Do that and I'm happy.

Short of adding a tsp of TSP (trisodium phosphate) to your dishwasher detergent, you can buy the orig. formula of dishwasher deterg from restaurant-supply businesses. For some reason, it's okay if restaurants don't want greasy glasses and such, but the rest of us proles will have to make do or find other ways. If you opt to go the TSP route, it's in boxes around the deck-cleaning supplies at Home Depot or Lowe's.

Posted by: RushBabe, Kratos Liberation Front at October 19, 2012 03:51 PM (tQHzJ)

160 If West loses, then Mittens can appoint him UN Ambassador

Posted by: Jean at October 19, 2012 03:51 PM (ytax8)

161 Colorado is going to look like this: 47% Obama, 4% pot-smoking commie parties (I include the "Libertarians" in this) and 49% Romney.

That's the worst case scenario. Best case is that it's 2% paint-huffers, mid-40s for Barky and a low-50s romp for Romney.

Posted by: boulder hobo at October 19, 2012 03:52 PM (QTHTd)

162 I keep laughing seeing freaking Wisconsin closer than Ohio in state polling. There is NO way Ohio is more democrat leaning than Wisconsin.

Posted by: NWConservative at October 19, 2012 03:52 PM (vWNz8)

163 Or buy your dishsoap at Resturant Depot

Posted by: Jean at October 19, 2012 03:52 PM (ytax8)

164 35 I'm on the dishwasher repeal. No phosphates are killing me.

Posted by: Tuna at October 19, 2012 03:53 PM (M/TDA)

165

I'm still waiting for some devastating October surprise from Team Obama-the SOBs

Considering all the early voting going on, they should've done it by now. This leads me to conclude they don't have one.

Posted by: RushBabe, Kratos Liberation Front at October 19, 2012 03:54 PM (tQHzJ)

166 132 115 Posted by: ghostofhallelujah at October 19, 2012 07:31 PM (XvrTA) Welcome to the show! And please, please kick Shitwad Brown to the curb as well. Already early voted. you'll know it's good if we can drag Mandel's (even Akin's) butt over the line. Mandel's slogan - shit you not - "Change Washington" -ugh, how many 20 yr-olds running your campaign?

Posted by: ghostofhallelujah at October 19, 2012 03:54 PM (XvrTA)

167 The big October surprise has already happened when the unemployment rate went to 7.8%. Orchestrating this was no small task and these buffoons thought this would be enough to seal the deal for the inevitable. Any sort of Plan B October surprise will be much more clumsy and reek of the last outlash of a dying demon. The risk of doing it is too great. Not only could it cement Obama as a horrific failure...in the MAINSTREAM media...but torpedo any possible future for Michelle. I don't think it happens.

Posted by: JT in KC at October 19, 2012 03:54 PM (7cxOe)

168 160 Oh that would be amusing.

Posted by: Tuna at October 19, 2012 03:54 PM (M/TDA)

169 I remember a blog post -- maybe PowerLine? -- from some years back that was talking about how political campaigns fall apart a little at a time, then all at once. Sort of like a preference cascade, but in the form of competence.

First, they fall short on big, risky things......but, then, they start fumbling stuff that had been dirt easy forever......then they can't manage a clean rebound from their latest misstep.....and, finally, as the walls cave in, there's nothing but clusterfuck as far as the eye can see.

I'm starting to get that sort of feeling about the Obama campaign. They lose a state here, they lose a state there.....and the next thing they know, they can't even go on the Daily Show for a tongue bath without coming across as unfeeling sociopaths.

Wish I could find that article again....

Posted by: cthulhu at October 19, 2012 03:54 PM (kaalw)

170 If West loses, then Mittens can appoint him UN Ambassador Posted by: Jean

PPP Poll at WeaselZippers has him up 9 over the Dem.

If that poll is in any shape accurate, not a GD fucking chance he loses.

Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at October 19, 2012 03:55 PM (qrpxS)

171 I'm tired of worrying about OH, will the shocker be NJ or OR

Posted by: Jean at October 19, 2012 03:55 PM (ytax8)

172 170, do it if he wins, his bigger-then-life personality is wasted in the House

Posted by: Jean at October 19, 2012 03:56 PM (ytax8)

173 will the shocker be NJ or OR

Both, of course

Posted by: boulder hobo at October 19, 2012 03:57 PM (QTHTd)

174 170 If West loses, then Mittens can appoint him UN Ambassador I can see him pulling his 1911 and banging it on the podium.

Posted by: Oldsailors Poet, Wonders what Dagny thinks at October 19, 2012 03:57 PM (kc2b9)

175 NJ won't go Romney, but I have to say that I have seen way more R/R signs than I ever saw for McCain/Palin in 2008.

Posted by: FeneloonSpoke at October 19, 2012 03:57 PM (u1lkY)

176 I like Allen West too, but he has some puzzling votes. Can forgive the budget deal, but voting w/ Cong Black Caucus against defunding Pigford and voting for NDAA? Not trashing him but...... Got a good one in OH in Jim Jordan (not my dist.) like Chaffetz & Tim Scott too.

Posted by: ghostofhallelujah at October 19, 2012 03:58 PM (XvrTA)

177 and throw in CT alongside NJ for the full effect

Posted by: boulder hobo at October 19, 2012 03:58 PM (QTHTd)

178 Yeah so apparently bluerose, we are in bad shape right now because we lost Ohio by 5% in 2008 with a 20pt margin against us in early voting, yet the democrats lost 13% margin for 2012 WITH TWO WEEKS LEFT. I think Ohio will be a blowout on election day since even with a huge democrat turnout, Obama won with 5%.

Posted by: NWConservative at October 19, 2012 04:01 PM (vWNz8)

179 166 Hopefully Romney can carry Mandel over the line if, as Rush believes, the idea that Obama owns OH is a myth.

Posted by: Tuna at October 19, 2012 04:02 PM (M/TDA)

180 How will the stock market plunge affect the polls this weekend?

Posted by: Tuna at October 19, 2012 04:04 PM (M/TDA)

181 Who has any money left in the market, it's just algos trading over-leveraged digital chits back and forth.

Posted by: Jean at October 19, 2012 04:08 PM (u5ozF)

182 Is it just me or does Shepard Smith look like that cheesedick D-list actor Ray Wise?

Shepard Smith: http://tinyurl.com/9zjvlf4

Ray Wise: http://tinyurl.com/9vra2jj

Posted by: Slappy at October 19, 2012 04:10 PM (LTbLf)

183 General consensus is OH economy doing better than many surrounding states is why RomneyTrend is meeting some resistance here. Bad guys tried to plant seed that there's a rift btw Gov Kasich & Romney campaign -not true. Everything gettin' crazy here. Expect to see the major network news trucks trolling around, just like '04.

Posted by: ghostofhallelujah at October 19, 2012 04:10 PM (XvrTA)

184 Not seeing 261 on the RCP map, cac.

Posted by: packsoldier at October 19, 2012 04:12 PM (CWEsd)

185

162....Ras has Obama up one in Ohio but with those sure to vote Romney is up...

As for Wisconsin and Oh...real simple....in Wisconsin they are not skewing the polls as far to the Dems because everyone wants to focus on OH...henceforth why the effort to skew samples Plus 8 Dem. Notice OH is one of the only states not one pollster has adjusted from 2008...why? Why would OH be the only state to keep the same 2008 turnout or even more DEMS? You have an Rep Gov who is getting more popular...outside of Cleveland, most of the rest of the state is GOP except pockets in Youngstown and Toledo. I find it amazing that no pollster polling OH has adjusted for the change in registration this year....all keep the DEM SAMPLE way too high...and that is why you see OH showing more Democratic....if that was the case the State House and Senate would have more Dems...neither does....both are Republican and so is the Governor....

The fact is OH only looks more DEM because the POLLSTERS have made it look more DEM....pure and simple....if these pollsters...any of them adjusted that sample from down Dem 8 OH would surely show in Romney's camp! But for the drama they keep it at 2008 level plus 1....think about that....IT IS THE STORY THEY WANT!

Look at it this way:

ARG....last week released their OH poll....48/47 for Romney but again with PLUS DEM 8 sample....but only 5 percent undecided!

Fox...today....released their OH poll....46/43 for Obama but again with PLUS DEM 8 Sample....but with 11 percent undecideds!

Okay lets use the normal formula....undecideds break 3/4 to 1 for Challenger...okay base that on 11 percent undecideds...which here would be 8 to 2 or 9 to 2 or 8 to 3...which would be 51/49 Romney.... or 52/48 Romney...remember that is with a Plus 8 Dem sample....

If you weight the ARG poll which has 6 percent less undecideds than Fox....that would be 4/2 or 5/1 to Romney....

Okay add ARG's breakdown of undecideds and give them back to Fox:

ARG....48/47

FOX...48/47 (with the reduction of undecideds to reflect same number in ARG Poll)

They would be identical...and BOTH use a Plus 8 Dem Sample!

That is how and why you see the difference....essentially Fox and ARG are the same...it is just that ARG most likely has leaners from the undecideds while Fox left them off....either way Romney would be up and that is with a Dem Plus 8 sample!

Posted by: bluerose75 at October 19, 2012 04:14 PM (HDcKc)

186 JT in KC: The big October surprise has already happened when the unemployment rate went to 7.8%.

I wonder about that. We have October unemployment numbers being released on Nov 2nd.

It would be amazing if last months 873,000 jobs were sustained; that number was such an outlier, several standard deviations off any rational estimate of growth or what an economy growing at 1.5% could produce as Okun's Law indicates.

Unless there is a ridiculous amount of manipulation going on, if we're to assume it was just a statistical sampling outlier, the unemployment numbers should pop back up to around 8% and cover that anomaly.

Which would be very bad news for Obama, 6 days before we start voting.

Posted by: Uriah Heep at October 19, 2012 04:14 PM (jhI6f)

187 So, when do "October surprises" usually happen? I read something here last night about that creep Gloria Allred having some dirt? Couldn't they make up some outlandish story and have out there around November 4th or so?

Posted by: FeneloonSpoke at October 19, 2012 04:17 PM (u1lkY)

188 I don't see4 why they couldn't manipulate the numbers again. These people would murder their own grandmothers if it helped them retain power.

Posted by: FeneloonSpoke at October 19, 2012 04:18 PM (u1lkY)

189 "If a President signs a treaty and the Senate doesnt reject it within 30 days it becomes binding per international agreements."

That's nonsense, and I blame Dick Morris for people believing this stupidity. No amount of international agreements can override the US Constitution, period. Per 'international agreement' (i.e. the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties) a signature without a ratification represents an agreement to not work against the goal of the treaty; that's it. And any future president who wants to work against it can "unsign it," like Bush did with that Kyoto Protocol abortion.

Posted by: dawnfire at October 19, 2012 04:18 PM (eEeH7)

190 The October Surprise, I think, almost has to happen in October and it has to actually be something. People tend to react badly to clumsy manipulation and a bombshell close enough to an election that it can't be checked out comes across as such.

Posted by: Methos at October 19, 2012 04:19 PM (hO9ad)

191 Unfortunately, it's only the 19th of October. Plenty of time yet. I don't want to sound like an Eeyore. The news for Romney now is looking good. I just loathe and and despise team Obama.

Posted by: FeneloonSpoke at October 19, 2012 04:21 PM (u1lkY)

192 Reporting that the GOP HQ in Erie, PA ran out of Romney/Ryan signs. I am gonna have to snatch one that is in neutral land. One of Romney's sons (Tagg I guess) stopped by a few weeks ago. I'd like to see Ryan come over, since Palin stopped by in 2008.

Now the closest Paul Ryan will be from here is more than 100 miles away. I know they pulled their resources out of PA but they should chip in a little bit. It'd be a big surprise-a PA gone red.

Posted by: expatinpa at October 19, 2012 04:24 PM (uW+NQ)

193 I see Gerg's been reduced to drive-bys. It doesn't even bother reposting its idiocy because it doesn't believe its own bullshit anymore. (If it ever did.)

Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 19, 2012 04:27 PM (aHR5E)

194 Anyone, ANYONE, who is nervous about the "October surprise" needs to get off the ledge.

First of all, we are expecting it, so it won't be a surprise.

I myself expecting a manufactured sex or abortion scandal. Pffft. It will be a lie and everyone will know it.

Romney is the only one who gives us a modicum of hope for getting out of this financial and foreign policy disaster in which we are currently trapped.

After Big Bird, binders, and Romnesia, all you have to do is tell your friends that this is the last desperate gasp of a loser.

Posted by: Miss Marple at October 19, 2012 04:28 PM (GoIUi)

195 Speaking of FL, here is a link to the live Allen West debate: http://www.wptv.com/generic/news/political/Allen-West-Patrick-Murphy-debate-live-video-blog

Posted by: JewishOdysseus at October 19, 2012 04:28 PM (WCzJ6)

196 So the future of this country rides on Nevada and Ohio. . . . the states that gave us Obama, Harry Reid and Sherrod Brown. What form of divine retribution would suffice if they end up screwing us again?

Posted by: natasha at October 19, 2012 04:31 PM (pyYXJ)

197 Even here in the Peoples Republic of Fairfax County (VA), I've seen quite a few R/R signs and bumper stickers. More than I expected.

Posted by: stillers at October 19, 2012 04:31 PM (15w2J)

198 After Big Bird, binders, and Romnesia, all you have to do is tell your friends that this is the last desperate gasp of a STUTTERING CLUSTERFUCK OF A MISERABLE loser. There, that's better.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 19, 2012 04:32 PM (aHR5E)

199 October Surprise?

I am surprised we made it to October without teh WON declaring martial law!

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 19, 2012 04:32 PM (ovpNn)

200 Great jumpin jeebus, the latest published cables from Amb Stephens in Benghazi are horrific--"Hey, we need help, jihadi assassins are running wild in the streets here, hello, we need help, HELLOOO??!!" The Repubs and the super-pacs need to jam this stuff right down Ogabe's throat, hopefully BEFORE the debte monday, to set the table for Mitt to decapitate the commie b@st@rd.

Posted by: JewishOdysseus at October 19, 2012 04:35 PM (WCzJ6)

201 199, Oh, there is still time!!

Posted by: Obama Muad'Dib at October 19, 2012 04:38 PM (15w2J)

202 Sarah Silverman need to get her skanky chlamydia-ridden ass back down to Florida to scare her 84 year old grandparents into voting again for Obama.

Posted by: Mr Wonderful at October 19, 2012 04:41 PM (6/bOE)

203 181 Who has any money left in the market, it's just algos trading over-leveraged digital chits back and forth. Posted by: Jean at October 19, 2012 08:08 PM (u5ozF) Everyone is invested in the market. For the most part everyone's 401K's and pensions are invested there. Plus mutual funds.

Posted by: What do you do all day if you don't watch tv, anne? at October 19, 2012 04:41 PM (oZfic)

204 bluerose7, way too much.

Look the game is simple.

We can assume that in general these polls are reliable in how they sample -- so, they make randomized phone calls and within a reasonable tolerance they don't have too much intrinsic bias to the questions and ordering, etc.

This is good, it means that polls in general can provide us with information about the actual voter landscape, it's just covered in noise that we need to filter out.

1) We filter out stochastic (random) noise by averaging. So that's simple.
2) We're left with data that is biased toward that firm's partisan/party breakdown.

Dave in Florida is doing tremendous work in unwinding each poll, reweighting it to the historical partisan/party turn-out percentages and then averaging them.

This preserves the information embedded in each poll - which way it's moving, the relative levels of the candidates, etc - while compensating for the fact that these firms are still thinking it's 2008. A totally ridiculous proposition when you realize Obama's D+7 turnout advantage was predicated on a Republican -5% from 2004 -- that isn't happening again.

Just follow his numbers, the D+3 one is money.

Posted by: Uriah Heep at October 19, 2012 04:42 PM (jhI6f)

205 #ABC. Always Be Closing

Posted by: jazz & cocktails at October 19, 2012 04:43 PM (jSHRL)

206 The day after the election, Chris Matthews is going to set himself on fire in front of his favorite package liquor store.

Posted by: Mr Wonderful at October 19, 2012 04:45 PM (6/bOE)

207 206....that would be a funny thing to behold!

Posted by: bluerose75 at October 19, 2012 04:47 PM (HDcKc)

208 I never understood why the October surprise of the unemployment rate of 7.8% didn't gain more traction. You have to think like a liberal to understand. They are political, yet bubble insulated, liberals. Just like Kenny Bania, this was the meal, this was the surprise. Just because we all get that it was a joke and it did'nt move the needle means that you shouldn't see the forest for the trees. This was the meal, it just sucked and no one fell for it. Part of being a conservative is understanding the liberal mind, they are incapable of the vice versa.

Posted by: JT in KC at October 19, 2012 04:56 PM (7cxOe)

209 Dave and Uriah, Obama has basically thrown in the towel in IN, NC, FLA, yet there are still polls that indicate they are leading in those states (NC in particular). My question is how do the campaigns know that it is useless to remain in a state that looks to us like it is still winnable. I just don't get the vibe that RR thinks that they are leading in Ohio. Read that Kasich quote - RR doing good but not "great". I just pray that Ohio does the right thing because we're soooooooo close to victory!!

Posted by: MT at October 19, 2012 05:02 PM (A6Bqs)

210 I never understood why the October surprise of the unemployment rate of 7.8% didn't gain more traction. You have to think like a liberal to understand. They are political, yet bubble insulated, liberals. Just like Kenny Bania, this was the meal, this was the surprise. Just because we all get that it was a joke and it didn't move the needle doesn't mean that you shouldn't see the forest for the trees. Yes, the soup at Mendi's sucked and no one fell for it, doesn't mean that it didn't count as a meal. Part of being a conservative is understanding the liberal mind, they are incapable of the vice versa.

Posted by: JT in KC at October 19, 2012 05:04 PM (7cxOe)

211 "I'm gonna go get the papers, get the papers" Joey 2 times Biden

Posted by: TheThinMan at October 19, 2012 05:10 PM (v2S39)

212 MT, So, my goal in this post is to explain how to understand the situation and the framework, not necessarily give you an answer.

The polls top-line, headline numbers are, at this time, primarily a function of who that polling firm or news organization paying them is predicting will vote.

So, when you run a poll you call a thousand people, 100 pick up and those 100 are biased toward picking-up by the very fact they did -- they have characteristics which correlate to certain voting habits. More democrats, who resent their families, respond on weekends when republicans are out with theirs. More women pick-up during the day, the old are more likely to stay on the line, etc. So, you need to adjust these numbers so they fit the population average.

For a reason that escapes me, most polling firms are using a demographic and partisan turn out model that approximates 2008 or is more favorable to Obama in some cases.

This produces the topline numbers they send to print.

But what the campaigns and us crazies look at are the internals.

If you're a campaign you have had voter contact so you know where they're leaning, total registration numbers, even down to an individual's religious, shopping and internet browsing habits. Several hundred bytes of unique information per voter. They can then correlate these patterns into probabilities of voting, which can then be mapped to registration and completion data. They have a good idea where they need to be based on predicted benchmarks and where the polling internals are telling them they are. This difference can be cost/benefited and they make a decision of what course of action to take.

For us, we have way less data. But, each poll* gives us a few pieces of information, namely what percentage of each demographic are voting for Obama or Romney. We can double check the media/pollster assumptions and if necessary reweigh it to make it more predictive.

This is what Dave's done and we're seeing a picture much different than the headline numbers on the polls. It also correlates with where the campaigns are spending their money and time.

* Gallup doesn't give the breakdown

Posted by: Uriah Heep at October 19, 2012 05:37 PM (jhI6f)

213 Also, there's something interesting about the Gallup numbers that the guys on the left who are bad mouthing them as outliers don't consider.

Gallup doesn't let us see their internals, but something to keep in mind is that their numbers are approximating those of what Dave found when he reweighed the outstanding polls using Rasmussen's monthly party affiliation polling showing a R+2.6 spread that's been sustained over several months. (http://tinyurl.com/9xupqlm)

This polling is the average of a month of asking people what party they're with, so ~30,000 people asked. I believe they've never been off more than a percent and a half since they started asking in 2004.

So, it's not like it's totally out of nowhere.... just nowhere the media would ever look.

Posted by: Uriah Heep at October 19, 2012 05:53 PM (jhI6f)

214 Now would be a good time to say I TOLD YOU SO. The Battle of Agincourt was never going to go to Henry V. He never got any traction there, even in his post first debate bounce. And with no Agincourt, there is no victory. It's nice being right.

Posted by: HenryVlosesAgincourt at October 19, 2012 06:05 PM (0Q7gz)

215 I think this election comes down to Ohio. If Romney gets FL, NC, VA, CO as we think he will and then add IA and NH, toss in one EC from Maine for good measure and Mitt is at 268. I think if Mitt wins PA, WI or MI, he'll get OH as well. Mitt is trailing in NV. There are some indications that Maine or OR might flip, but those are long shots. Like I said, it looks like it comes down to OH for the 2 EC's that Romney needs even though it's worth 18.

Posted by: MrX at October 19, 2012 06:06 PM (PxmNZ)

216 Wave election in bad economy. This was over in July. All Romney had to do in the first debate was prove he was not Thurston Howell III. He passed that test. Rest is history...somewhere between a Bush I/Dukakis and Reagan/Carter margin.

Posted by: Spike at October 19, 2012 06:41 PM (UZDaa)

217 Ace is absolutely right about the goal. Can't think of this in terms of getting Romney to 270; gotta strike THROUGH and PAST the target. Obama needs a shellacking so bad that no Democrat would dare speak any of his stupid talking points for a generation. Run right through 'em, they're demoralized as hell.

Posted by: DriveBy at October 19, 2012 06:44 PM (C9Vc8)

218

This had better be more than sweet nothings you are whispering in my ear!!!!!

I want this election for keeps!!!!!

Is Ohio in our side or not?

Is Ohio going to stick it to the rest of us?

Posted by: petunia at October 19, 2012 07:04 PM (DAcBA)

219 Just returned home from Daytona Beach Romney/Ryan rally tonight.

A resident from Daytona said that they were expecting 3,000 people. You will read in the news that "several thousand" showed up.

TSA informed us as we were leaving that 14,000 came, between the bandstand and the overflow crowd near the beach. They know as our tickets were bar coded with our names (which I have never seen before, and have attended GOP rallies in 2004 and 200

.

This was in Biker Week. There were a few bikers there, from their clothes. The crowd was excited and happy to be there and wait to see these two men.

Morons, be very proud of the people voting for Romney/Ryan. Many people there were veterans. Young kids, high school and junior high. Nice, nice and polite people.

Maybe 20-30 people were protesting on a balcony to the rear of the bandstand. As approximately 6000 left from the bandstand people just sang "Na, na, na, hey-hey-hey good-bye and waved to them." I am very glad I went, and it was a couple hours drive for us. People were there from all over the state and one family drove down from Georgia. This is how excited we are to get this done.

Posted by: ChristyBlinky, unbanned, ready to get this done at October 19, 2012 09:11 PM (baL2B)

220 P.S. to comment above...the press I have read today all agree on the "spoke to thousands" meme without mentioning the overflow crowd, but then gave the protesters (of which there were maybe 20-30 Obamabots vs !4,000 conservatives) more words of shouting obnoxiously: "four more beers." They also mention this was Octoberbikefest" in Daytona Beach. There were bikers there, but the majority of the 14,000 were people who came from all over Florida to hear our next president and vice president.

I would not be surprised if these protesters follow the campaign and are paid by SEIU. Again, they were not many and we made fun of them instead of flinging them into the Atlantic Ocean.

While they probably ruined it for some, who came to hear Romney/Ryan, they did not even cause a ripple in the crowd in the bandshell.

Another thing, other than bar codes and ID on the free tickets that I noticed was different from the rallies I attended in 2004 and 2008 (or maybe I just forgot): This rally started with prayer. Imagine the quiet of 14,000 people (as said by TSA agent at the end), with a lone Obama freak shouting his name through the prayer. He was ignored by the crowd. The scripture he quoted was one I have prayed every night for two weeks, and will continue:

If my people, which are called in my name, shall humble themselves, and pray, and seek my face, and turn from their wicked ways; then will I hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin, will heal their land.
II Chronicles 7:14

Posted by: ChristyBlinky, unbanned, ready to get this done at October 20, 2012 07:25 AM (baL2B)

221 Bagdad Nate. So fitting.

Posted by: NWConservative at October 20, 2012 11:25 AM (M1gmo)

222 Florida is full of bitter clingers anyway. And blue hairs.

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at October 20, 2012 11:25 AM (CufTr)

223 I see no college football post (where's my pointy elbow pic?!?), but it looks like OSU will chalk up a loss...the very same week The 0ne visited and touted their undefeated record. And took credit for the approval of a playoff system.

Reverse Midas Touch.

Posted by: red sweater at October 20, 2012 11:25 AM (CUi62)

224 Still no pointy elbows! Instead we get Baghdad Nate!!!!

Posted by: Vic at October 20, 2012 11:28 AM (YdQQY)

225 I may have been too early with that OSU losing comment. Maybe. We'll see if they can convert and force OT.

Posted by: red sweater at October 20, 2012 11:28 AM (CUi62)

226 Again, the great bonus of R|R winning in Nov is that the media weasels like Silver will be forced to confront their impotence and irrelevance.

I of course will be happy to remind them. Repeatedly.

Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at October 20, 2012 11:28 AM (qrpxS)

227 There is nothing in the news, real news or fake news, that helps Ebola. On the other hand, there is much that hurts him. So, TFG has to run for office by making folks afraid of Mitt Romney and there terrible things he will do to the USA. Mitt Romney and afraid do not mix well. Ebola is doomed because he did his best. If his goal was to help the USA, he did his best and ended up badly injuring it. If his goal was to hurt the USA, he did his best and succeeded.

Posted by: eman at October 20, 2012 11:30 AM (+XD7n)

228 Is this the headquarters of the War on Women? I want to tell you right wingers just one thing -- stay out of my bedroom.

(But pay for my contraception.)

Posted by: Sundra Flake at October 20, 2012 11:31 AM (feFL6)

229 Hello! Saturday! Football! Cheerleaders??????????????????

Posted by: Barry S at October 20, 2012 11:31 AM (X4XFN)

230 Cool, looks like Nate's got a template for his posts between now and Nov. 6: "After Romney Gains, Should Obama Concede _________?"

Posted by: Dante at October 20, 2012 11:32 AM (NWLVJ)

231 OT. Sorry for repeating myself. Apparently I was in a dead thread. Not even a troll lurked to try and bring me down. So here we go again... 346 So I'm down here in Texas approaching the end of my project. Unemployment looms. BOOM!!! Got an extension into 2014. I picked up the phone and called my Moronette. Mayflower movers are on the case. Stuff back home will arrive in three weeks. She will be here on Tuesday. All I have to say is Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure. That and party time for my little family unit.

Posted by: Hobo Cookbook Final Chapter. Desert. Gonna Get Ugly Folks at October 20, 2012 11:34 AM (k/Mc/)

232 Where's Baghdad Gerg to assure us that TFG's going to totally win Ohio so Romney's toast anyway, which he totally knows because he's totally a pollster, yeah, that's the ticket?

Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 20, 2012 11:34 AM (aHR5E)

233 Well if OH and FL are gone for Obama the wave is cresting. As I said early he will be lucky to get 10 States. It will not be a 47 State sweep like RR but it will be close.

Posted by: Vic at October 20, 2012 11:35 AM (YdQQY)

234 Drinks on Hobo Cookbook!

Posted by: Redd at October 20, 2012 11:36 AM (RoEtU)

235 hobo that is fantastic

Posted by: phoenixgirl, team dagny, ROMNEY/RYAN 2012 at October 20, 2012 11:36 AM (Ho2rs)

236 I think Ebola will get 7 States. MA will not be one of them.

Posted by: eman at October 20, 2012 11:36 AM (+XD7n)

237 I don't see how Obama gets past 258, and that's with Ohio and Wisconsin going blue. We're fine.

Posted by: Truman North at October 20, 2012 11:38 AM (2BAAO)

238 gone for Obama vs. gone FROM Obama

Posted by: Jay walking with Leno at October 20, 2012 11:38 AM (BAnPT)

239 >And light bulbs - I want my light bulbs back.

Posted by: someone at October 19, 2012 07:10 PM (bqjJT)

and toilets that flush like the Norway Maelstrom

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 20, 2012 11:38 AM (8sCoq)

240 Come on Gamecocks. Have some Gatorade tail for lunch. Speaking of tail.....DiT? Cheerleaders?

Posted by: teej says go K-State at October 20, 2012 11:38 AM (GX2fm)

241 Got an extension into 2014.

Good for you. Congratulations.

At the same time it saddens me that people now have to live their lives on the edge like this. I remember a time when people would 'sign on the dotted line' and commit to spending the next 15, 20, maybe 25 years in the same place, either continuing employment with the same employer or moving on to a better position.

I hope Romney/Ryan is the beginning of the return to those days.

Posted by: Schrödinger's cat at October 20, 2012 11:38 AM (feFL6)

242 The next jobs report will have unemployment down to 2%. Gas prices rising to $15 per gallon will be cited as the chief reason.

Posted by: eman at October 20, 2012 11:38 AM (+XD7n)

243 Romney can get as many as 351 if things really come together... But I think 320 is realistic.

Posted by: Truman North at October 20, 2012 11:39 AM (2BAAO)

244 If we're going to have interminable poll threads, can we at least have a cheerleader pic?

Posted by: rickl at October 20, 2012 11:39 AM (sdi6R)

245

Posted by: ChristyBlinky, unbanned, ready to get this done at October 20, 2012 11:25 AM (baL2B)

Thanks for the report, Christy.

That's heartening to hear first hand reports like that.

Here in OK...we don't even get Romney Ads.

Which is okay, because it would be preaching to the choir...and that money is best spent elsewhere.

Posted by: wheatie at October 20, 2012 11:39 AM (ipkPX)

246 Eman, I think Obama gets 12 states plus DC, minus one from Maine. 38 go to Romney.

Posted by: Truman North at October 20, 2012 11:40 AM (2BAAO)

247 If we're going to have interminable poll threads, can we at least have a cheerleader pic? Posted by: rickl at October 20, 2012 03:39 PM (sdi6R) It will be Andrea Mitchell. No wig.

Posted by: eman at October 20, 2012 11:40 AM (+XD7n)

248 206 The day after the election, Chris Matthews is going to set himself on fire in front of his favorite package liquor store.

I hope they insert a laugh track over the footage when they play it on the news.

Oh, who am I kidding? We'll do that later when the clips get put up on youtube.

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at October 20, 2012 11:41 AM (BuSM8)

249 >Speaking of tail.....DiT? Cheerleaders?

I've posted a few cheerleader pics this morning, with zero reaction.

I don't think these guys like cheerleaders.

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 20, 2012 11:42 AM (8sCoq)

250 Eman, I think Obama gets 12 states plus DC, minus one from Maine. 38 go to Romney. Posted by: Truman North at October 20, 2012 03:40 PM (2BAAO) That doesn't add up to 57 and isn't as boneriffic as 7 States for Stalin.

Posted by: eman at October 20, 2012 11:42 AM (+XD7n)

251 I really hope someone right now, somewhere, is putting some hard work into the most epic Hitler bunker parody of all time...

Posted by: hannitys_hybrid at October 20, 2012 11:42 AM (MmH0Z)

252 241 Got an extension into 2014. Good for you. Congratulations. At the same time it saddens me that people now have to live their lives on the edge like this. I remember a time when people would 'sign on the dotted line' and commit to spending the next 15, 20, maybe 25 years in the same place, either continuing employment with the same employer or moving on to a better position. I hope Romney/Ryan is the beginning of the return to those days. Posted by: SchrÃ¶dinger's cat at October 20, 2012 03:38 PM (feFL6) I've been doing what I've been doing for 24 years. This is the first time I have been in this situation.

Posted by: Hobo Cookbook Final Chapter. Desert. Gonna Get Ugly Folks at October 20, 2012 11:43 AM (pUAXu)

253 I figure Obama at 46% of the popular vote, and no matter how you paint it in the states, you don't win enough electoral votes with that, ever. Obama loses, by a large enough margin they can't cheat or take it to court to win with. He's toast, unless something catastrophic happens to the Romney campaign.
Mitt Romney has successfully presented himself as a viable alternative in the debates, and by doing so has won it. People were just waiting for someone to replace Obama with. What's the Obama team going to do to change that? What can they possibly come up with that will make people say "well Obama sucks but this guy is worse?" I can't imagine.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at October 20, 2012 11:43 AM (r4wIV)

254 Did anyone else notice, that right on time, the CIA releases a statement that says basically we don't know WTF we are doing and we told Rice that?

This CYA spying is not working out to well. So now Barry can say see, the video was the problem. The lies that keep showing up in DC are simply amazing.

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 20, 2012 11:44 AM (wR+pz)

255 I'm thinking we need to push Ace for a lengthy post concerning his concept of cashew heads. I think I get what he's saying, but that doesn't mean he can't fill out the particulars with a 10,000 word post.

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at October 20, 2012 11:44 AM (BuSM8)

256 >>>251 I really hope someone right now, somewhere, is putting some hard work into the most epic Hitler bunker parody of all time... I want everyone except Axelrod, Plouffe, Carney and the Wook to leave the room.

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at October 20, 2012 11:44 AM (CufTr)

257 CAC, I heart you! Some proggy libtard crybaby was whining to me the other day about the utter tragedy that would befall us if his beloved barry doesn't win this thing. I said the polls ain't lookin' too good for his boy. He immediately wanted to know what polls I am looking at and urgently advised me to pay more attention to Nate Silver. I had no fuckin' idea who that was, so he informed me, with a certain sense of incredulous superiority, that Silver is part of the New York Times (eleventy!!!). That was when I rolled my eyes and ended the conversation.

Posted by: Peaches is caustically optimistic at October 20, 2012 11:44 AM (kpCLl)

258 CAC in black I dip the sack I've been too long I'm glad to be back Yes It's too bad For the chad That's kept me hanging about I keep looking at the Margins 'Cause it's givin' me large 'uns Don't wanna deal 'cause I'll never make bargains I got nine livers I'm a giver Usin' every one of them and running wild 'Cause I'm CAC Yes, I'm CAC Well, I'm CAC Yes, I'm CAC Well, I'm CAC, CAC (Well) I'm CAC in Black Yes, I'm CAC in black Back in the back Of a Cadillac Number one with a ballot, I'm a power PAC Yes, I'm on a hangout With the gang out They've got to catch me if they want me to Google+ Cause I'm back on the tracking And I'm getting to flacks Nobody's gonna let me write another rap So look at me now I'm just makin' my points Don't try to push your luck, just pass me them joints

Posted by: ChampionCapua at October 20, 2012 11:44 AM (KZi9D)

259 Three words: Gloria Allred.

Posted by: Blue Collar Joe at October 20, 2012 11:45 AM (MmH0Z)

260 Okay, I was wrong about OSU.

Posted by: red sweater at October 20, 2012 11:45 AM (CUi62)

261 I'm just hoping this will shame pollsters and the media so bad they change their ways, but I don't see that happening on this planet. Polls will change, that's certain - the old system just doesn't work any more.
But guys like Nate Silver ought to be laughed out of the business. 75%, what a jackass.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at October 20, 2012 11:45 AM (r4wIV)

262 Right now, I'd like to be in the Joe Kennedy camp so I can learn exactly how they intend to cheat themselves into a congressional seat. How does that work? How do they coordinate it? I know they do it. Last cycle, we believe there was a 20% margin of vote fraud, if you can even believe it.

Posted by: Truman North at October 20, 2012 11:46 AM (I2LwF)

263 Have you guys seen that thing on Drudge about how the UN is going to be monitoring our election? Words fail me . . .

Posted by: Peaches is caustically optimistic at October 20, 2012 11:46 AM (kpCLl)

264 Boobehs? Where are the Boobehs and the pointy elbows? What has happened!?!?

Posted by: The Man from Athens at October 20, 2012 11:47 AM (RXQ2T)

265 OK I denounce myself at the beginning. The real changer in this election are the Blacks for Romney. True Dat.

http://tinyurl.com/9c3cko5

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 20, 2012 11:48 AM (wR+pz)

266 OSU are from Oklahoma. Ohio State play in Ohio. OU, also Oklahoma. The team from Oregon is The Ducks. The other team from Oregon is Or. St. It's confusing but OSU did win today, despite their all-vermillion kit. It was ugly and they beat ISU, who are from Iowa. THE Ohio State played Purdue, who are from Chickenland.

Posted by: Truman North at October 20, 2012 11:48 AM (I2LwF)

267 235 hobo that is fantastic Posted by: phoenixgirl, team dagny, ROMNEY/RYAN 2012 at October 20, 2012 03:36 PM (Ho2rs) Big sigh of relief down here. And for some reason the Value Rite suddenly tastes like top shelf.

Posted by: Hobo Cookbook Final Chapter. Desert. Gonna Get Ugly Folks at October 20, 2012 11:48 AM (B2fm1)

268 At the end of the day, the wimmens will hear the call of their vaginas and vote accordingly.

Posted by: Barky O'Genius at October 20, 2012 11:49 AM (CufTr)

269 New Romney ad- "The Obama Plan"- http://youtu.be/1-dpwYvwmFI

Posted by: Miss80sBaby at October 20, 2012 11:49 AM (YjDyJ)

270 "HOPE you don't get indefinitely detained"

(from glenn reynolds instapundit link)

http://tinyurl.com/d8kttms

Project Censored: The expanding police state tops the annual list of stories underreported by the mainstream media

...the furor sparked by ObamaÂ’s continuation of his predecessorÂ’s overreaching approach to national security, such as signing the 2012 National Defense Authorization Act, which allows the indefinite detention of those accused of supporting terrorism, even U.S. citizens.

And ultimately, itÂ’s the public Â— not the president and not the corporationsÂ—that will determine the future. There may be hope after all.

Signs of an emerging police state

FBI agents responsible for terrorist plots: FBI Terrorism Task Force

Federal Reserve loaned trillions to major banks

Of 43,060 transnational companies, 147 control 40 percent of total global wealth. The connections between companies = Â“super entity" works.

NATO war crimes in Libya

H.R. 347 criminalizes protest

U.S. deaths from Fukushima

Prison Slavery in the US

By Yael Chanoff, Boulder Weekly

Posted by: panzernashorn at October 20, 2012 11:49 AM (BAnPT)

271 The media will be busy in the coming weeks, trudging up to the attic to dust off the old saws they put away four years ago.

Posted by: hannitys_hybrid at October 20, 2012 11:50 AM (MmH0Z)

272 Miami (OH) and The Ohio Bobcats also play in Ohio. As do the Toledo Rockets, the Kent State Golden Flashes, and the Akron Zips. The Zips.

Posted by: Truman North at October 20, 2012 11:50 AM (I2LwF)

273 South Dakota state are the Jackrabbits, or abbreviated Jacks. The North Dakota state teams are the Fighting Sioux but they are abbreviated NDSU. They are the only major college school that has pink featured prominently on the men's uniforms.

Posted by: Truman North at October 20, 2012 11:54 AM (I2LwF)

274 Obama under-performing Al Gore by losing Florida 2 weeks out has GOT TO HURT.

Posted by: TD, one of the proud 53% at October 20, 2012 11:54 AM (+uFux)

275 Florida is OUT?
Florida is OUT?

Posted by: CNN guy at October 20, 2012 11:56 AM (E3/4A)

276 On MSNBC's "Hardball" Chris Matthews asked Chuck Todd if the President's stump speech of "accomplishments" in his administration was "forward" enough or if the message was falling flat. Todd responded that the President's message "feels like the past."

Posted by: too little too late at October 20, 2012 11:56 AM (BAnPT)

277 OK I denounce myself at the beginning. The real changer in this election are the Blacks for Romney. True Dat. http://tinyurl.com/9c3cko5 Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 20, 2012 03:48 PM (wR+pz) Okay, then.

Posted by: eman at October 20, 2012 11:56 AM (+XD7n)

278

263 Have you guys seen that thing on Drudge about how the UN is going to be monitoring our election? Words fail me . . .

It's outrageous, Peaches.

[Link to Hill article, which Drudge links...in my sig, for those who want to see it.]

The UN will be..." looking for voter suppression activities by conservative groups".

And working with the NAACP, too!

So I guess they will be turning a blind eye to the Black Panthers with clubs.

Posted by: wheatie at October 20, 2012 11:57 AM (ipkPX)

279 How 'bout them cheerleader pics. Fucking awsome, huh?

Posted by: Soona at October 20, 2012 11:58 AM (mY2VW)

280 The UN has been sending voting moderators since 2004, because Al Gore couldn't steal the election.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at October 20, 2012 12:00 PM (r4wIV)

281 >The UN will be..." looking for voter suppression activities by conservative groups".

well, they're gonna miss all the dead voters in Reno, Chicago, Fargo, Minnesota, Buffalo, Toronto, Winslow, Sarasota, Wichita, Tulsa, Ottawa, Oklahoma, Tampa, Panama, Mattawa, La Paloma, Bangor, Baltimore, Salvador, Amarillo, Tocopilla, Barranquilla and Padilla.

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 20, 2012 12:02 PM (8sCoq)

282 At the end of the day, the wimmens will hear the call of their vaginas and vote accordingly.

Posted by: queef! at October 20, 2012 12:02 PM (+VMZ0)

283 The UN has been sending voting moderators since 2004, because Al Gore couldn't steal the election.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at October 20, 2012 04:00 PM (r4wIV)

----------------------------------------------

The dems, and most certainly the SCOAMT, has made the USA the laughing stock of the world. Mission accomplished, assholes.

(I hate these people with the heat of a million suns)

Posted by: Soona at October 20, 2012 12:03 PM (mY2VW)

284 And of course, Democrats will 'find' 'uncounted' votes in Boston, Charleston, Dayton, Louisiana, Washington, Houston, Kingston, Texarkana, Monterey, Ferriday, Santa Fe, Tallapoosa, Glen Rock, Black Rock, Little Rock, Oskaloosa, Tennessee, Hennessey, Chicopee, Spirit Lake, Grand Lake, Devils Lake and Crater Lake.

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 20, 2012 12:04 PM (8sCoq)

285 Fuck the UN, useless parasites.

Posted by: Peaches is caustically optimistic at October 20, 2012 12:04 PM (kpCLl)

286 well, they're gonna miss all the dead voters in Reno, Chicago, Fargo, Minnesota, Buffalo, Toronto, Winslow, Sarasota, Wichita, Tulsa, Ottawa, Oklahoma, Tampa, Panama, Mattawa, La Paloma, Bangor, Baltimore, Salvador, Amarillo, Tocopilla, Barranquilla and Padilla.

And Sioux City, Cedar City, Dodge City.

What a pity.

Posted by: HeatherRadish™, Crankypants Extraordinaire at October 20, 2012 12:04 PM (hO8IJ)

287 Democrat activists will, of course, file injunctions to keep the polls open late in Louisville, Nashville, Knoxville, Ombabika, Schefferville, Jacksonville, Waterville, Costa Rica, Pittsfield, Springfield, Bakersfield, Shreveport, Hackensack, Cadillac, Fond du Lac, Davenport, Idaho, Jellico, Argentina, Diamantina, Pasadena and Catalina.

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 20, 2012 12:05 PM (8sCoq)

288 You'd think Oiho would have learned their lesson during the whole LeBron kerfuffle.

Hell, not even Florida is that f*cking stupid.

Posted by: Fritz at October 20, 2012 12:06 PM (vm7ot)

289 And finally, there will be hanging chads in Pittsburgh, Parkersburg, Gravelbourg, Colorado, Ellensburg, Rexburg, Vicksburg, El Dorado, Larimore, Atmore, Haverstraw, Chattanooga, Chaska, Nebraska, Alaska, Opelika, Baraboo, Waterloo, Kalamazoo, Kansas City, Sioux City, Cedar City and Dodge City.

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 20, 2012 12:06 PM (8sCoq)

290 <blockquote>
What is more important IMO after the election is the UN small arms treaty.
They will vote on it right after the election and it will pass (only needs 6o nations to do so). Obama will sign it. Reid will not let the Senate convene to vote on it. If a President signs a treaty and the Senate doesnt reject it within 30 days it becomes binding per international agreements. They maygo for the global warming and or antipoverty treaty as well.
Once Romney is elected and in office he will have to fix this mess.

Posted by: retired military at October 19, 2012 07:21 PM (UbevC)</blockquote>

Wait, what?

Treaties don't become law until they get a 2/3 vote in the Senate. President Obama can sign all the treaties he likes. The U.N. or some other international body can claim we're bound by it. The U.S. Constitution explicitly states otherwise.

Unless I'm missing something. Is there a Supreme Court case on point? Or an example of a treaty that's been enforced by the U.S. courts without Senate approval??

Posted by: Clint at October 20, 2012 12:08 PM (IJDTs)

291 oh man I killed the thread

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 20, 2012 12:08 PM (8sCoq)

292 All right, that's enough Johnny Cash lyrics.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 20, 2012 12:09 PM (aHR5E)

293 What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their girlie men.

Posted by: Redd at October 20, 2012 12:09 PM (RoEtU)

294 I've been everywhere man

Posted by: J. Cash at October 20, 2012 12:09 PM (H5i76)

295 >f a President signs a treaty and the Senate
doesnt reject it within 30 days it becomes binding per international
agreements.

I dont know where you got your copy of the Constitution but mine says the Constitution is the supreme law of the land and NO statute or treaty can supercede that

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 20, 2012 12:10 PM (8sCoq)

296 The US is a fucking big place. Exactly where do these UN asshole plan to monitor? We need monitors to monitor the UN.

Posted by: Redd at October 20, 2012 12:11 PM (RoEtU)

297 @293

Yes!

http://tinyurl.com/yk7n7bv

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 20, 2012 12:12 PM (wR+pz)

298 Treaties are not enforceable against the states unless they are ratified by a 2/3 vote in the senate.

Posted by: Redd at October 20, 2012 12:13 PM (RoEtU)

299 Has the UN ever accomplished anything? Serious question.

Posted by: Adam at October 20, 2012 12:13 PM (1//Wu)

300 No treaty becomes law automatically. First the Senate must ratify it with a 2/3 majority and then enabling legislation must be passed in both houses.

Posted by: Vic at October 20, 2012 12:13 PM (YdQQY)

301 Just saw a TV ad slamming Obama over 'form letters' sent to the families of fallen servicemen-

that's gonna leave a mark here in Colorado, because there are many guys from Ft Carson who deployed to the Middle East and never came back

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 20, 2012 12:13 PM (8sCoq)

302 Hank Snow went there first.

Posted by: the guy that moves pianos for a living.... at October 20, 2012 12:13 PM (BF5Y9)

303 If Obama had an October surprise worth a damn they wouldn't be desperately running around with their heads cut off right now...think about it.

Posted by: Uncle Milty at October 20, 2012 12:14 PM (gvWL9)

304 The DC has come out with a Most Punchable part Deux.

And yes Olbermand, Hayes, Stephanopolis, Smith, Maher, et al made the list.

Our pleas, prayers and complaints have been heard and granted.

Posted by: Jcw46 at October 20, 2012 12:15 PM (Vh0f5)

305

290....Treaties don't become law until they get a 2/3 vote in the Senate.

Posted by: Clint at October 20, 2012 04:08 PM (IJDTs)

Correct.

I'm not aware of anything that has happened to change this.

But if Barky is reelected...he can do anything he wants, because Who will stop him?

Posted by: wheatie at October 20, 2012 12:15 PM (ipkPX)

306 And of course, the 2nd Amend protects our gun rights. Seriously, if this rumor going around were true, wouldn't the NRA be on top of it? Nevertheless, if it scares people into voting against the knucklehead in the WH - good!

Posted by: Redd at October 20, 2012 12:15 PM (RoEtU)

307 And the more recent Supreme Court cases have stated that the treaty must pass Constitutional muster as well.

The Migratory Bird Case not withstanding a treaty can not supersede the Constitution

Posted by: Vic at October 20, 2012 12:15 PM (YdQQY)

308 This is why Ohio is going for Mitt: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2947417/posts

Posted by: JamesGOP at October 20, 2012 12:15 PM (4A5EK)

309 300 Has the UN ever accomplished anything? Serious question.

Posted by: Adam at October 20, 2012 04:13 PM (1//Wu)

They gave away half of Korea. Gave away the Suez Canal. Let the freedom fighters in Hungray (1954) die in the streets.

Oh, and started Israel, which has worked out real well for 64 years.

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 20, 2012 12:15 PM (wR+pz)

310 300 Has the UN ever accomplished anything? Serious question. Posted by: Adam at October 20, 2012 04:13 PM (1//Wu Does fucking up Halloween count?

Posted by: ChampionCapua at October 20, 2012 12:15 PM (KZi9D)

311 It'll be a cold day in hell before the UN gets to impose law on the United States of America.

Posted by: Peaches is caustically optimistic at October 20, 2012 12:16 PM (kpCLl)

312

f a President signs a treaty and the Senate

doesnt reject it within 30 days it becomes binding per international

agreements.

-------------------------------------------------

That duck don't fly here in the US. Thank God for the Constitution.

Posted by: Soona at October 20, 2012 12:16 PM (mY2VW)

313 Nevada is lost to Romney. Obama will win it easily because the Dems and the unions will be out in mass and exploit the 250% increase in their voter registration lead they've gained for themselves this past month. From: http://tinyurl.com/96nmhmz "----More Democrats have requested ballots than Republicans Â– a sharp turnaround compared with 2008. 26,363 Democrats have requested ballots compared with 25,443 Republicans. This means Democrats have an advantage of D +920. But at this point in 2008, Republicans had an advantage of R +8,774. Democrats have gained a net D +9,694 compared with 2008, when Obama won the state by 12.4 percentage points. If Democrats can do a decent job of chasing those requests, well.... "----Democrats have gained on Republicans in ballots returned. At this point in 2008, Republicans led by 2,274 in ballots returned. Thus, Democrats have cut the margin by 42 percent in 2012." Also, most pollsters got the 2010 Senate race wrong. One of the few is seeing an 8-point Obama lead: http://tinyurl.com/9gvyce2

Posted by: The Political Hat at October 20, 2012 12:16 PM (sZTYJ)

314

sure the constitution is all well and good until the massive blue helmet army shows up on our shores to enforce the treaty

Posted by: kj at October 20, 2012 12:17 PM (AW9md)

315 I shot a thread just to watch it die!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: Johnny C. at October 20, 2012 12:17 PM (RoEtU)

316 There's a once-popular restaurant up here called THE HILLTOP. It's a big place with lots of dining rooms. They are named Dodge City, Kansas City, Sioux City, etc. It's cute; the kids love it. When your table is ready, over the P.A. they'll say Table for 4 for CAC in Sioux City.

Posted by: Soothsayer at October 20, 2012 12:18 PM (jUytm)

317 That duck don't fly here in the US. Thank God for the Constitution.

Posted by: Soona at October 20, 2012 04:16 PM (mY2VW)

The constitution? One more liberal Supreme court justice is ALL that they need to ignore it.

Don't EVER forget that.

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 20, 2012 12:18 PM (wR+pz)

318 Has the UN ever accomplished anything? Serious question.

Those women and young girls in Haiti, Sierra Leone, Bosnia, Cambodia , East Timor and Congo couldn't rape themselves.

(http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2005/mar/25/unitednations)

Posted by: HeatherRadish™, Crankypants Extraordinaire at October 20, 2012 12:18 PM (hO8IJ)

319

-------------

Actually, Wayne LaPierre has been warning about it.

Posted by: wheatie at October 20, 2012 12:19 PM (ipkPX)

320 and their sign is a giant cactus and around the front they have life-sized plastic cattle grazing on the lawn

Posted by: Soothsayer at October 20, 2012 12:20 PM (jUytm)

321 Well-played, HeatherRadish, very well played. (Plus, I am so jealous of your new nic, it's awesome!)

Posted by: Peaches is caustically optimistic at October 20, 2012 12:21 PM (kpCLl)

322 @313

I think you are forgetting the unemployment numbers AND the large Mormon population.

Wynn has said he wants Mitt. Adelson as said he wants Mitt. Both of them control a lot of shit in NV and they are going to work it hard.

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 20, 2012 12:21 PM (wR+pz)

323 D.M. Hawkins @HawkinsUSA How bad is it for Obama? PPP Sample was D+4 a week ago and O led by 5. It goes to a highly unlikely D+8 and it goes to a 1 point Obama lead.

Posted by: Evilpens at October 20, 2012 12:22 PM (ck76k)

324 Remember when the US had balls and refused to sign the Kyoto treaty?

Posted by: Redd at October 20, 2012 12:22 PM (RoEtU)

325 sure the constitution is all well and good until the massive blue helmet army shows up on our shores to enforce the treaty

Posted by: kj at October 20, 2012 04:17 PM (AW9md)

-----------------------------------------------

Oh,man. Please, please, please. Make most of them ME types too.

Posted by: Soona at October 20, 2012 12:22 PM (mY2VW)

326 funny thing about treaties,without the firepower to back them up about the only they're good for is wiping your ass

Posted by: kj at October 20, 2012 12:22 PM (AW9md)

327 I thought Mitt could only win FL with Marco Rubio. I was w--w-w-w--w- w-w-w- rong.

Posted by: Soothsayer at October 20, 2012 12:23 PM (jUytm)

328 Rasmussen has Romney up quite a bit in swing state polling through yesterday, 50%-46%: http://tinyurl.com/9cqyj8a

Posted by: Zombie Flanders at October 20, 2012 12:24 PM (YGxEA)

329 One thing about treaties is that you have to read the fine print. We sign treaties but opt out on specific clauses, i.e., the bullshit. At least we did under Bush.... Boooooooosh!

Posted by: Redd at October 20, 2012 12:24 PM (RoEtU)

330 Sen. Dean Heller is in deep trouble in Nevada The Dems are doing better in absentee voting than in '08. https://secure.deanheller.com/donate/

Posted by: The Political Hat at October 20, 2012 12:25 PM (sZTYJ)

331 OK my apologies, not "through yesterday", just "yesterday"!

Posted by: Zombie Flanders at October 20, 2012 12:25 PM (YGxEA)

332 President Obama is in deep doo doo

Posted by: The Political Ass Hat at October 20, 2012 12:26 PM (8sCoq)

333

313 Nevada is lost to Romney.

Maybe....maybe not.

Luntz's group on Tuesday night after the debate...were Dems who voted for Barky last time.

All but 3 or 4, have switched to Romney this time.

And they were very vocal about 'why'.

Just because someone is still registered as a Dem, doesn't mean they will be casting their vote that way.

Here in OK, Dem registrations still outnumber Republican, 2 to 1.

But OK has been deep red for quite a while.

Posted by: wheatie at October 20, 2012 12:27 PM (ipkPX)

334

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 20, 2012 12:27 PM (8sCoq)

335 There's still time, wingnuts.

youtube.com/watch?v=eBOldxW5Omk

Posted by: Fritz at October 20, 2012 12:28 PM (vm7ot)

336 @328

Who the fuck is an "undecided" with two weeks to go?

Liars that don't want to admit they are going to vote for Mitt.

The challenger always gets the majority of the "undecided" at the end.

I think we should......

http://tinyurl.com/dkozn5

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 20, 2012 12:28 PM (wR+pz)

337 Sen. Dean Heller is in deep trouble in Nevada

The Dems are doing better in absentee voting than in '08.

https://secure.deanheller.com/donate/

Posted by: The Political Hat at October 20, 2012 04:25 PM (sZTYJ)

------------------------------------------------

You need to check your dipstick. I believe you're running a couple of quarts low on shit.

Posted by: Soona at October 20, 2012 12:28 PM (mY2VW)

338
Who the fuck is an "undecided" with two weeks to go?

Liars that don't want to admit they are going to vote for Mitt.

Ding, ding, ding, we have a winner!!!

Posted by: Peaches is caustically optimistic at October 20, 2012 12:29 PM (kpCLl)

339

Steve Wynn creates alot of jobs and might have some influnce on the way people in Neveda vote

Posted by: kj at October 20, 2012 12:32 PM (AW9md)

340 Here in OK, Dem registrations still outnumber Republican, 2 to 1. ButOK has been deep red for quite a while. Posted by: wheatie at October 20, 2012 04:27 PM (ipkPX) OK has legacy Dems. the Dem dominance in Nevada is a new thing and is tied to the unions and locusts who moved to Nevada after destroying California. You need to check your dipstick. I believe you're running a couple of quarts low on shit. Posted by: Soona at October 20, 2012 04:28 PM (mY2VW) The more reliable pollsters are showing Berkeley ahead. Combine this with the fact that Dems are doing better than they were in '08 amongts absentees AND the fact that they have a ground game run by a seasoned political machine, and it is clear that Heller IS in danger. It's Pollyannas that will hurt us.

Posted by: The Political Hat at October 20, 2012 12:32 PM (sZTYJ)

341 64 Now would be a good time to say I TOLD YOU SO.

Ohio was never going to go to Romney. He never got any traction there, even in his post first debate bounce.

And with no Ohio, there is no victory.

It's nice being right. Posted by: RomneylosesOhio at October 19, 2012 07:13 PM

Geez gerg, you've posted this exact same thing in other threads yesterday and today.

Just phoning it in now?

Posted by: kbdabear at October 20, 2012 12:33 PM (wwsoB)

342 Let's not forget Barry's telling people not to go to Vegas. I think a lot of the union guys are fed up with Barry. The retirees too. The unemployed too. The guys underwater with their mortgage too.

Who in NV IS going to vote for Barry?

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 20, 2012 12:34 PM (wR+pz)

343

robotroll

Posted by: kj at October 20, 2012 12:34 PM (AW9md)

344 338 Who the fuck is an "undecided" with two weeks to go? ____________ It's just so hard to choose! Romney says he wants to cut the deficit, and I like that! But then Obama says he wants to hire more teachers, and I like that, too!

Posted by: Undecided Voter at October 20, 2012 12:35 PM (NWLVJ)

345 343
robotroll

Posted by: kj at October 20, 2012 04:34 PM (AW9md)

Hey, we're broke. That's the best I can get now.

Posted by: Axe at October 20, 2012 12:35 PM (wR+pz)

346

Who the fuck is an "undecided" with two weeks to go?

Liars that don't want to admit they are going to vote for Mitt.

People are afraid of this Thug in the White House.

Look at what happened to that girl who wore an R/R t-shirt to school.

Yeah...she got vindicated.

But she had to leave that school, and go to another one, because of all the bullying.

So I don't really blame people for being careful...and lying to pollsters.

Posted by: wheatie at October 20, 2012 12:35 PM (ipkPX)

347 All work and no cheerleader pics make morons go crazy

Posted by: kbdabear at October 20, 2012 12:36 PM (wwsoB)

348

sure the constitution is all well and good until the massive blue helmet army shows up on our shores to enforce the treaty

Now that would be interesting, as in fish+ barrel, some assembly required

Posted by: Velvet Ambition at October 20, 2012 12:36 PM (R8hU8)

349 Geez gerg, you've posted this exact same thing in other threads yesterday and today. Just phoning it in now? --- It used to be able to find polls that it liked. It can't anymore. But Axelrod won't pay it if it doesn't post something, so there you have it.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 20, 2012 12:36 PM (aHR5E)

350 Geez gerg, you've posted this exact same thing in other threads yesterday and today.

Just phoning it in now?

Posted by: kbdabear at October 20, 2012 04:33 PM (wwsoB)

---------------------------------------------------

We're going to be seeing a lot of delusional people walking around after Nov 6th. I'm sure many of them will be mentally locked into Nov 5th.

Posted by: Soona at October 20, 2012 12:36 PM (mY2VW)

351 Speaking of money. I saw Karl on Fox last night.

When is that little shit going to start carpet bombing?

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 20, 2012 12:37 PM (wR+pz)

352 Nice to see the UN is concern-trolling our election. I'm sure they're all over the Venezuelan election, too.

Posted by: Dante at October 20, 2012 12:38 PM (NWLVJ)

353 Flash, this just in Ann Romney use to KNEEL in church AND drink WINE and believe in Divorce.

Damn Episcopalians.

Posted by: MSM Spin doctors at October 20, 2012 12:39 PM (wR+pz)

354 You'd think with that sweet $15 million BofA just tossed Barry, they could bring out their A game for these last couple of weeks. Oh, wait, what am I saying?

Posted by: Peaches is caustically optimistic at October 20, 2012 12:40 PM (kpCLl)

355 Geez gerg, you've posted this exact same thing in other threads yesterday and today. Just phoning it in now?
Posted by: kbdabear

The copy pasta should earn him a perma-ban.

On the other hand, I want him front and center when Romney beats Obama like a rug.

Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at October 20, 2012 12:40 PM (qrpxS)

356 I don't understand how WI could be a toss up, given that the liberals have lost every recall and referendum in the last two years.

Posted by: PJ at October 20, 2012 12:40 PM (DQHjw)

357 I predicted FL was gone over a year ago. The polls just aren't showing what's going on in the street. The sample is WAY too self selected this time around and heavily favoring Obama.

That 9/91 response thing is hiding a LOT.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 20, 2012 12:40 PM (LbeyC)

358 Let's not forget Barry's telling people not to go to Vegas. I think a lot of the union guys are fed up with Barry. The retirees too. The unemployed too. The guys underwater with their mortgage too. Who in NV IS going to vote for Barry? Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 20, 2012 04:34 PM (wR+pz) Then how do you explain their 250% increase in registration? Or their massive improvement in absentee ballots (they have more ballot requests then the GOP, which they didn't have in '08; AND the turned in rate for the absentee ballots is down for the Republicans compared to '0

. I'd love it if Wynn were to save the state from the GOP. I'd love it if it were true that the union members were going to secretly vote Republican. But those are pipe dreams. The real numbers portend DOOM: massive increase in registration + improved absentee ballot numbers over '08. I'll believe those numbers of all the Pollyanna's anyday.

Posted by: The Political Hat at October 20, 2012 12:41 PM (sZTYJ)

359 Look PHat - I understand that you have been trying to get people to contribute to Heller and you are worried. But this is bordering on trolling. Obama had a decisive advantage in 2008 among Independents. Romney is enjoying a 18 point lead with Independents in Nevada.

Do you REALLY think Dems are going to outnumber the GOP by 9 points? Because that is the only way Obama gets to +3 in the recent NV polls. Panicking over those early vote totals is silly. Obama can't crack 48 in any of these over sampled polls.

And Heller? He's hitting 50% with a 7 point lead.

Quit trolling.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 12:41 PM (dX4hn)

360 So I don't really blame people for being careful...and lying to pollsters.

Posted by: wheatie at October 20, 2012 04:35 PM (ipkPX)

Plus, it's just plain ol' fun! I remember last time telling some nice young lady on the phone four years ago that I would absolutely vote for Barry and, laying it on thick, thanked her for doing what she was doing. I didn't even bust out laughing until after I had hung up.

Posted by: Peaches is caustically optimistic at October 20, 2012 12:42 PM (kpCLl)

361 What's with the Billy Graham thing of scrubbing the "Mormon cult" stuff and throwing his support to an unnamed candidate at this late date. Hypocrites! Thanks for nothing. If the Left doesn't find this to be a divisive and line-blurring topic, I will eat this keyboard.

Posted by: and irresolute at October 20, 2012 12:42 PM (DBH1h)

362 I resent our leftist political organizations requesting the UN to monitor our elections. They just can't wait to reduce us to third world status; they have to pretend we already are in order to assuage their colonialist guilt.

Posted by: Justamom in Achin' Akin's district at October 20, 2012 12:43 PM (Sptt8)

363 Who is undecided with 2 weeks to go? In this election its people trying to decide between voting for Romney and not voting at all.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at October 20, 2012 12:44 PM (r4wIV)

364 I think this $15 mill story is a red herring. They could not have pissed away all the shit they had.

Something does not pass the smell test.

If that is all they have, they are truly going to get the barb cock of Satan up the ass.

I figure Mitt has over a $100 mill, and Karl has at least twice that and then don't forget the evil Koch brothers weighing in with a least $50 mill, plus the NRA.

We are taking $300 mill to SPEND in 16 days. About $20 mill a DAY and it ALL has to be spent by November 6th.

Wish I owned a TV station.

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 20, 2012 12:45 PM (wR+pz)

365 WI is a tossup like the Alabama vs Tennessee game is a tossup.

Posted by: too little too late at October 20, 2012 12:45 PM (BAnPT)

366 I'm waiting for New York, California, and Illinois to go "Lean Romney" while Ohio is still "Too Close to Call" with D +27.

Posted by: Whoever this is, it's definitely not Michael at October 20, 2012 12:45 PM (JVCVF)

367 Uhm, guys? That Greg post is from yesterday. This is a bumped thread.

I haven't seen him today. I expect the PPP poll in Ohio isn't exactly supporting his position.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 12:46 PM (dX4hn)

368 I'm still making up my mind. Romney seems presidential. But Obama already is the president. It's a real conundrum!

Posted by: Undecided Voter at October 20, 2012 12:46 PM (NWLVJ)

369 And just what IS oil?

Posted by: Undecided at October 20, 2012 12:48 PM (8sCoq)

370 Look PHat - I understand that you have been trying to get people to contribute to Heller and you are worried. But this is bordering on trolling. Obama had a decisive advantage in 2008 among Independents. Romney is enjoying a 18 point lead with Independents in Nevada. Do you REALLY think Dems are going to outnumber the GOP by 9 points? Because that is the only way Obama gets to +3 in the recent NV polls. Panicking over those early vote totals is silly. Obama can't crack 48 in any of these over sampled polls. And Heller? He's hitting 50% with a 7 point lead. Quit trolling. Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 04:41 PM (dX4hn) Republicans would have to win the vast majority of independents, and the Dem turnout would have to be severely depressed, for Romney to win. Heller's only viable because of a large number of undecideds. 9+ edge reflects the voter registration lead the Dems have. Considering the machine they have and that they've registered 50,000+ new Democrats in the past five months, that edge seems awefully plausible. To boot, the state GOP party is run by people who are hoping that Romney and Heller LOOSE. I'm am skeptical of those polling numbers after what happened in 2010. Those who got it right are saying that Heller DOES NOT have the lead. A massive 250%+ increase in voter registration lead for the Dems does not portend a good night for Republicans in Nevada.

Posted by: The Political Hat at October 20, 2012 12:48 PM (sZTYJ)

371 So I don't really blame people for being careful...and lying to pollsters.

Its just the 9% responders who are fucking with the pollsters. The other 91% are too livid to speak.

Any Obama supporter would be more than willing to say so in a poll. There's no downside to professing Obama support.

I'm starting to think, as outside longshot, that even CA might flip, but only on election day, when your opinion is anonymous.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 20, 2012 12:48 PM (LbeyC)

372 Well the choice is pretty clear, you want free condoms or a job that doesn't require you to be on your back all day?

Posted by: Sandra Slut at October 20, 2012 12:48 PM (wR+pz)

373 I keep waiting for the two candidates to exain to me exactly what thy intend to do, and I refuse to seek out this information by watching the news and debates or reading newspapers or the Internet.

Posted by: Another Undecided Voter at October 20, 2012 12:48 PM (I2LwF)

374 Help me, Jesus! I just realized that there were NO cheerleader pictures today ... where is my razor!

Posted by: and irresolute at October 20, 2012 12:48 PM (DBH1h)

375 I wouldn't count on people lying to pollsters--and if they do, in significant numbers, it probably goes both ways, as they're doing it ( blurting out a preference ) to end the call.

There are so many polling outfits now, with no skill and an obvious agenda, that you should either ignore them or carefully check their internals

The MFM are trying desperately to prevent a 'preference cascase' a la 1980, and increase viewership by painting their boyfriend as 'neck and neck'

Posted by: Major _________ de Coverly at October 20, 2012 12:49 PM (Dll6b)

376 >A massive 250%+ increase in voter registration lead for the Dems does not portend a good night for Republicans in Nevada.

Posted by: The Political Hat at October 20, 2012 04:48 PM (sZTYJ)

6 electoral votes. You're hanging your political asshat on 6 electoral votes?

Posted by: Undecided at October 20, 2012 12:49 PM (8sCoq)

377 Just read in Orlando Sentinel that it was, indeed, a bunch of union thugs at the Romney/Ryan Daytona Beach rally last night. This article says 10,000 people attended to hear our future President and VP. There were, maybe, 20-30 thugs vs 10,000 who let them live to whine another day.

There was a Democrat union conference nearby where Debbie Whatzhershitz spoke. These pathetic people were paid protestors last night. Not one was suicidal enough to be in the crowd. And, as I reported earlier, one male loser yelled "Obama" during the prayer, giving me instant memories of the DNC voting three times against God.

Brietbart was in Daytona Beach last night. Heavy and loud singing and mocking of the protestors vs being beaten to a pulp by bikers. Everyone treated them like gnats and laughed and waved at them. When you have former aging supermodels (me) pointing and laughing and singing, well, their ship has sailed.

Posted by: ChristyBlinky, unbanned, ready to get this done at October 20, 2012 12:50 PM (baL2B)

378 Can women vote? And if so, is that fair?

Posted by: Undecided at October 20, 2012 12:50 PM (8sCoq)

379 On the other hand, if what you are saying about Nevada is true, then turn out the lights and color it blue for a generation. We don't need it.

But I'm a little skeptical that the highest unemployment in the nation is going to vote to reelect TFG.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 12:50 PM (dX4hn)

380 .... or a job that doesn't require you to be on your back all day?

Posted by: Sandra Slut at October 20, 2012 04:48 PM (wR+pz)

I want one of those! Or the one that doesn't have me face-down across my desk all day!!

Posted by: and irresolute at October 20, 2012 12:51 PM (DBH1h)

381 And just what IS oil?

Concentrated liquid gaia murdering evil.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 20, 2012 12:51 PM (LbeyC)

382 A massive 250%+ increase in voter registration lead for the Dems does not portend a good night for Republicans in Nevada.

Posted by: The Political Hat at October 20, 2012 04:48 PM (sZTYJ)

Real numbers not percentages here. 250% of WHAT? What are the total registration numbers D vs R vs I? I had 100% more sex last month than the month before. I flapped it twice.

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 20, 2012 12:51 PM (wR+pz)

383 241 Got an extension into 2014.

Welcome to the Republic of Texas...

Leave your liberalism behind, but do please keep Austin weird...

Posted by: Bill from Chappaqua at October 20, 2012 12:52 PM (MAhUT)

384 Concentrated liquid gaia murdering evil.

Great, now everyone will want some.

Posted by: Blanco Basura at October 20, 2012 12:52 PM (xKC/c)

385 6 electoral votes. You're hanging your political asshat on 6 electoral votes? Posted by: Undecided at October 20, 2012 04:49 PM (8sCoq) The election will not turn on Nevada. It IS the state I live in, so excuse me for expressing a concern. After the Dems are done with Nevada, they'll just spread to other states. A loss of the Senate seat in Nevada would mean that the GOP would have to pick up one more seat to stay even. If we loose the Mass seat, then we'd need to pick up six to hit 50. Doable, but every additional seat we have to win because of this is one additional seat we won't have when it comes to Senate votes.

Posted by: The Political Hat at October 20, 2012 12:52 PM (sZTYJ)

386 forget about California; although millions of Normal People will vote Republican, millions more will vote Democrat

it's a checkerboard: Large tracts of third world sh*t-holes checkered with mostly-White / Asian prosperity.

Posted by: Major _________ de Coverly at October 20, 2012 12:53 PM (Dll6b)

387 But I'm a little skeptical that the highest unemployment in the nation is going to vote to reelect TFG. Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 04:50 PM (dX4hn) People on welfare won't bite the hands that feed them.

Posted by: The Political Hat at October 20, 2012 12:54 PM (sZTYJ)

388

so you're saying a state that depends on people keeping enough money in their pockets to blow is going to vote for a guy who wants to take more money out of peoples pockets?

Posted by: kj at October 20, 2012 12:54 PM (AW9md)

389 Wish I owned a TV station. Posted by: Billy Bob

Easily done.

Comcast
CMCSA 36.95
News Corp.
NWSA 24.91

Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at October 20, 2012 12:54 PM (qrpxS)

390 New posts now gone for AOSHQ

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at October 20, 2012 12:55 PM (BuSM8)

391 The house of cards. It is wafting on the breeze as ashes after the fire.

What's that? Yes, I did call NEW JERSEY for Romney on Thursday.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at October 20, 2012 12:55 PM (uluoH)

392 I'm not going to post the link, but just let me mention that there is an article on FoxNews titled "Bacon, Egg & Cheese GougÃ¨res" .... you got that? Something about BACON!! Mouth watering pictures .... bacon!

Posted by: and irresolute at October 20, 2012 12:56 PM (DBH1h)

393 Romney signs overwhelm BO's here in Central Florida. Big win going to happen 52% -48% . Nobody buys the shit Obama is selling.

Posted by: ACOrlando at October 20, 2012 12:56 PM (/fPyr)

394 Fuck Comcast, they own NBC. I don't want no stinking stock. I want the keys to the building!

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 20, 2012 12:57 PM (wR+pz)

395 Per Romney campaign release - Florida absentee ballots to this point GOP up 45-39% (700,000 submitted so far)

Posted by: Honey Badger at October 20, 2012 12:57 PM (vzfrq)

396 I wouldn't count on people lying to pollsters--and if they do, in significant numbers, it probably goes both ways, as they're doing it ( blurting out a preference ) to end the call.

I don't think that goes both ways. Unlike the merry pranksters of Team Racist Hater, those other guys have NO sense of humor.

Posted by: Peaches is caustically optimistic at October 20, 2012 12:57 PM (kpCLl)

397 390 New posts now gone for AOSHQ

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at October 20, 2012 04:55 PM (BuSM

One of the Cobs mentioned this morning that they were all getting drunk and planning the election night coverage.

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 20, 2012 12:58 PM (wR+pz)

398 Blue helmets? Heh. Snicker. Heh. I wonder how many hunters purchase firearms deer licenses each year in states that allow rifle hunting. I'm gonna guess at least 85% of those are using scoped, high power rifles. Since Clinton was in office literally millions of firearms and billions of rounds of ammunition have made their way into the hands of bitter clingers. Pray it never comes to that here. If it does pray we are worthy of the first "bitter clingers." And who were they you ask? Well, British troops who were given the task of confiscating powder and shot ran into some at Lexington and Concord.

Posted by: teej says go K-State at October 20, 2012 12:58 PM (QbKVX)

399 I'd be more ebullient about this news, but I'm currently sitting shivah for Big Tex

Posted by: Mr Wonderful at October 20, 2012 12:58 PM (lD8ju)

400 Yeah, there's a Team HQ meeting . . . they're probably all slippery with valu-rite and hobo guts by now.

Posted by: Peaches is caustically optimistic at October 20, 2012 12:59 PM (kpCLl)

401 Real numbers not percentages here. 250% of WHAT? What are the total registration numbers D vs R vs I? I had 100% more sex last month than the month before. I flapped it twice. Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 20, 2012 04:51 PM (wR+pz) Dem voter registration peaked in '08. It had been falling since then to only around 35K. In the past five months or so the Dems added 55K with the strongest gains in the closing days of registration. This brings them up to around what they had in '08. The Dems are motivated, organized, and active. Their massive and sudden uptick in registration demonstrates this. They have the ground game down pat. The Republican party here is run by Ron Paul cultists who want to see Romney and Heller loose. The absentee ballot data is worse for the GOP than in '08. Pollsters who were accurate about the '10 Senate race are showing Heller behind and Romney even further back. To sit back and say that it's in the bag for Heller like Pollyanna on Choom.

Posted by: The Political Hat at October 20, 2012 12:59 PM (sZTYJ)

402 399 I'd be more ebullient about this news, but I'm currently sitting shivah for Big Tex

Posted by: Mr Wonderful at October 20, 2012 04:58 PM (lD8ju)

Big Tex was a Jew? Shit you learn something everyday.

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 20, 2012 01:00 PM (wR+pz)

403 forget about California

9/91

No pollster knows what's going on with 91% of the public this time. Not a single one.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 20, 2012 01:00 PM (LbeyC)

404 371 So I don't really blame people for being careful...and lying to pollsters. Its just the 9% responders who are fucking with the pollsters. The other 91% are too livid to speak. Any Obama supporter would be more than willing to say so in a poll. There's no downside to professing Obama support. I'm starting to think, as outside longshot, that even CA might flip, but only on election day, when your opinion is anonymous. _____________________ I do not trust most of the polls, and I thinks it's hilarious and awesome that people mess with pollsters. For a miserable two years, I worked as a supervisor in a call center that did political polling and market research in the NJ/PA/CT/RI markets. Among other things, we did some polling for a certain PA newspaper that currently has Obama up nearly double digits and should not be trusted. Two "insights" from my time there: 1. Probably half of the few people who complete a telephone poll are the self-selecting outspoken type who are just DYING to tell you what they hate. Most of the rest were some combination of disconnected, apathetic, or ignorant, and so bored that they would have talked to us if we were selling vacuum cleaner warranties. Every rare once in a while we'd get a normal person to do a survey. 2. My staff consisted mostly of high school dropouts, ditzy college boys and girls, and other various shady characters who had been making minimum wage for 10+ years. Dear Lord, was it an answer to prayer when I landed a better job.

Posted by: Undecided Voter at October 20, 2012 01:00 PM (NWLVJ)

405 "Heller's only viable because of a large number of undecideds."

What part of "Heller is at 50%" did you not understand?

Nevada exits in 2008 D/R/I was 38/30/32. Nevada Independents (32% of the 2008 vote!!) have swung from Obama to Romney by 31 points.

But you want us to believe that Democrat registration is up so high that it will overcome that high a swing?

Oh, and in 2008? 11% of Nevada GOP voted for Obama. Think that is happening this year?

The good news is that you made me look at the internals. I had been considering Nevada leaning toward Obama, but now I think Romney is going to win it.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 01:02 PM (dX4hn)

406 I stopped at the library and read today's New York Times. Could find no mention whatsoever of Libya. their lead editorial is how wimmenz will become like the jews under Hitler, if Romney is elected. Persecuted, marginalized, oppressed, disappeared, killed.

Posted by: The littl shyning man at October 20, 2012 01:02 PM (PH+2B)

407 You know, If Obama hadn't made such monster promises and then trash them in a spectacular and unprecedented manner he might actually have a chance for re-election.

Posted by: Dept. of Accuracy Dept. at October 20, 2012 01:02 PM (BAnPT)

408

phat

i lived in Vegas for ten years and still have many freinds there that i talk to on a regular basis,i can say what you speak of is a crock of shit.

Posted by: kj at October 20, 2012 01:02 PM (AW9md)

409 @JonahNRO By the Hammer of Thor, this country can't afford another four years of Barack Obama's policies. #MittGoesBurgundy

Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at October 20, 2012 01:02 PM (qrpxS)

410 I'm extremely concerned that neither of the candidates have addressed climate change and what they will do to counter it.

Posted by: Undecided Voter at October 20, 2012 01:03 PM (1//Wu)

411 What, no college cheerleader tiddies?

I weep for this blog.

Posted by: Torch-Wielding Villager at October 20, 2012 01:03 PM (sTS/8)

412 "The Republican party here is run by Ron Paul cultists who want to see Romney and Heller loose."

Then you are fucked. What do you want us to do about it?

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 01:04 PM (dX4hn)

413 On the other hand, if what you are saying about Nevada is true, then turn out the lights and color it blue for a generation. We don't need it.

But I'm a little skeptical that the highest unemployment in the nation is going to vote to reelect TFG.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 04:50 PM (dX4hn)

---------------------------------------------------

Plus the ever-present ghostliness of large unfinished hotels that have remained abandoned for three years is always there to remind everyone who caused that.

Posted by: Soona at October 20, 2012 01:04 PM (mY2VW)

414 I was going to ask T-PHat to take a fuckin' break, but then I realized that he is helping me to get my household drudgery done by driving me away from the 'puter for brief periods.

Posted by: Peaches is caustically optimistic at October 20, 2012 01:05 PM (kpCLl)

415 Let's do a poll;

Alabama Cheerleader

http://tinyurl.com/8zbvgna

Tennessee Cheerleader

http://tinyurl.com/8tbawut

Posted by: kbdabear at October 20, 2012 01:05 PM (wwsoB)

416 Florida absentee ballots to this point GOP up 45-39% (700,000 submitted so far)

That's disastrous for Obama. Absentee has favored Dems in the past. They pushed that as a way to generate the vaunted "paper trail" and wanted all the Dems to get absentee ballots when we were still using the electronic stuff.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 20, 2012 01:05 PM (LbeyC)

417 @401

Absent are the numbers for R and I? Giving me just the D's doesn't make you point.

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 20, 2012 01:06 PM (wR+pz)

418 @416

I vote SEC.

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 20, 2012 01:07 PM (wR+pz)

419 The good news is that you made me look at the internals. I had been considering Nevada leaning toward Obama, but now I think Romney is going to win it. Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 05:02 PM (dX4hn) Tell that to Senator Angle.

Posted by: The Political Hat at October 20, 2012 01:07 PM (sZTYJ)

420 @BillyBob - so you want to be the janitor of a TV Station?

Posted by: Joe at October 20, 2012 01:08 PM (Duv7q)

421 416 >>> Let's do a poll;

Alabama Cheerleader

Tennessee Cheerleader

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Link sandwich, my friend.

Posted by: Torch-Wielding Villager at October 20, 2012 01:08 PM (sTS/8)

422 Looks like all those young boys Harry Reed plugged all those years ago have grown up to make up this 250% jump in NV. What was the P word Ace was using a while back when describing old Dingy Harry?

Posted by: Redman Bluestate at October 20, 2012 01:08 PM (sRIFP)

423 Really, sparky, so Romney = Angle now? You have truly jumped the shark with that one.

Posted by: Peaches is caustically optimistic at October 20, 2012 01:08 PM (kpCLl)

424 OH SHIT!!!

BREAKING!
BREAKING!
BREAKING!

THEY JUST DROPPED THE OCTOBER SURPRISE!

http://tinyurl.com/8lzc3xn

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 20, 2012 01:09 PM (ovpNn)

425

Posted by: kbdabear at October 20, 2012 05:05 PM (wwsoB)

No contest.

The Alabama wheat-headed cheerleader is a doll.

Better uniform, too.

Posted by: wheatie at October 20, 2012 01:10 PM (ipkPX)

426 What was the P word Ace was using a while back when describing old Dingy Harry?

Posted by: Redman Bluestate at October 20, 2012 05:08 PM (sRIFP)

P E D A R A S T Y

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 20, 2012 01:10 PM (ovpNn)

427 351-187

Posted by: Another Undecided Voter at October 20, 2012 01:10 PM (I2LwF)

428 Hank Snow was a Canadian, so he doesn't count.

Posted by: Mr Wonderful at October 20, 2012 01:10 PM (lD8ju)

429 Jeez, how old is that picture?

Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 20, 2012 01:11 PM (aHR5E)

430 Ugh. Out here (Colorado) we're getting HAMMERED by "Obama = Munificent Job Creator, So Let's Keep Him" TV ads. I've nearly hacked up my colon from so much puking.

Posted by: Torch-Wielding Villager at October 20, 2012 01:11 PM (sTS/8)

431 Romney's ground operation in NV is separate from the state GOP. Are you working with anyone at the precinct leveling NV yet, manpower is going to count.

Posted by: Jean at October 20, 2012 01:12 PM (hrAg/)

432 Let's do a poll;

Alabama Cheerleader

http://tinyurl.com/8zbvgna

Tennessee Cheerleader

http://tinyurl.com/8tbawut

Posted by: kbdabear at October 20, 2012 05:05 PM (wwsoB)

---------------------------------------------

I thought they were going to be nekkid. Can't judge 'em with clothes on.

Posted by: Soona at October 20, 2012 01:12 PM (mY2VW)

433 That's It!

Posted by: Redman Bluestate at October 20, 2012 01:12 PM (sRIFP)

434

It's been 1 year since Mohamarr Quedaffi was killed. Time flies when you don't give a shit.

Posted by: Ohio Dan` at October 20, 2012 01:13 PM (JKNDp)

435 420 @BillyBob - so you want to be the janitor of a TV Station?

Posted by: Joe at October 20, 2012 05:08 PM (Duv7q)

Ha Ha!

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 20, 2012 01:13 PM (wR+pz)

436

Let's do a poll;

Alabama Cheerleader

http://tinyurl.com/8zbvgna

Tennessee Cheerleader

Do these shorts make my clit look fat?

Posted by: eleven at October 20, 2012 01:13 PM (fsLdt)

437 OH SHIT!!!

BREAKING!
BREAKING!
BREAKING!

THEY JUST DROPPED THE OCTOBER SURPRISE!

http://tinyurl.com/8lzc3xn

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 20, 2012 05:09 PM (ovpNn)

---------------------------------------------------

It's over. We've lost.

Posted by: Soona at October 20, 2012 01:14 PM (mY2VW)

438 That would be "I don't need GOTV Angle"?

Let's see, wasn't there another statewide election in 2008 in Nevada? Oh right, it was the Governor, which he WON BY 12 POINTS. Hell of a turnout operation the Dems mounted there. The Independents liked Sandoval and didn't like Angle. Dem turnout had no effect.

Your concern is noted.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 01:14 PM (dX4hn)

439 I vote for the 'bama cheerleader. I want to use her for body shots.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 01:15 PM (dX4hn)

440

OH SHIT!!!

BREAKING!
BREAKING!
BREAKING!

THEY JUST DROPPED THE OCTOBER SURPRISE!

Pass the gravy.

Posted by: eleven at October 20, 2012 01:15 PM (fsLdt)

441 Pixy smells of elderberries.

Posted by: eleven at October 20, 2012 01:17 PM (fsLdt)

442 Karl Rove and Sean Penn both in my hotel lobby. Very Weird!

Posted by: LASue at October 20, 2012 01:17 PM (32Scy)

443 Karl Rove and Sean Penn both in my hotel lobby. Very Weird!

Posted by: LASue at October 20, 2012 05:17 PM (32Scy)

-----------------------------------------------

They aren't holding hands, are they?

Posted by: Soona at October 20, 2012 01:18 PM (mY2VW)

444 We need a photo of Ryan the bowhunter with Big Bird filled with arrows.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 01:19 PM (dX4hn)

445 Is Penn doing his Tragically Serious act?

Posted by: eleven at October 20, 2012 01:19 PM (fsLdt)

446 443 Karl Rove and Sean Penn both in my hotel lobby. Very Weird! Posted by: LASue at October 20, 2012 05:17 PM (32Scy) ----------------------------------------------- They aren't holding hands, are they? Posted by: Soona at October 20, 2012 05:18 PM (mY2VW) _________ That WOULD be an October surprise!

Posted by: Dante at October 20, 2012 01:19 PM (NWLVJ)

447 Check out the tits on this one!

Sort of Not Safe for Your Peace of Mind.

http://tinyurl.com/9kdwext

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 20, 2012 01:19 PM (ovpNn)

448 Nevada exits in 2008 D/R/I was 38/30/32. Nevada Independents (32% of the 2008 vote!!) have swung from Obama to Romney by 31 points. Depends on which poll you are looking at. A more accurate pollster got a three way split for independents between Heller, Berkeley, and Undecided. 3rd party and "None of the Above" will do very well (and possibly cost Heller his seat). And here is a poll showing Independent going romney by 18 points... with Obama still in the lead. http://tinyurl.com/dyjt8ye I'd also add that the pollsters got Nevada very, very wrong in 2010. Dem registration surge + advantage in absentees over '08 are more telling then pollsters who royally screwed up in 2010. Absent are the numbers for R and I? Giving me just the D's doesn't make you point. Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 20, 2012 05:06 PM (wR+pz) "More Democrats have requested ballots than Republicans Â– a sharp turnaround compared with 2008. 26,363 Democrats have requested ballots compared with 25,443 Republicans. This means Democrats have an advantage of D +920. But at this point in 2008, Republicans had an advantage of R +8,774. Democrats have gained a net D +9,694 compared with 2008, when Obama won the state by 12.4 percentage points" "Democrats have gained on Republicans in ballots returned. At this point in 2008, Republicans led by 2,274 in ballots returned. Thus, Democrats have cut the margin by 42 percent in 2012." http://tinyurl.com/9loa54c -- From a pundit who got it very, very right in 2010. And yes, sadly it looks like Nevada will go deep blue. And for those who "don't care": Perhaps seeing a Dem surge this election in any part of the country should make you worried that they don't end up copying that success elsewhere.

Posted by: The Political Hat at October 20, 2012 01:20 PM (sZTYJ)

449 Check out the tits on this one!

Sort of Not Safe for Your Peace of Mind.

http://tinyurl.com/9kdwext

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 20, 2012 05:19 PM (ovpNn)

-----------------------------------------

Why do I keep clicking on the fucking links here. *GAG*

Posted by: Soona at October 20, 2012 01:22 PM (mY2VW)

450

OCTOBER SURPRISE!

http://tinyurl.com/8lzc3xn

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 20, 2012 05:09 PM (ovpNn)

----------

Big Bird didn't see him coming.

Heh.

The only 'bad thing' about that pic...is that it makes Mitt look like he used to have a Unibrow.

And if they try to bring that up, then there are school pics out there that show Moochelle with a Unibrow...and a mustache.

Posted by: wheatie at October 20, 2012 01:22 PM (ipkPX)

451 Don't be telling me how to analyze polls.

I'm now done with this. I have no idea why you decided to start concern trolling, but I'm tired of it.

Piss off.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 01:23 PM (dX4hn)

452 And if they try to bring that up, then there are school pics out there that show Moochelle with a Unibrow...and a mustache.

Posted by: wheatie at October 20, 2012 05:22 PM (ipkPX)

Nothing has changed.

She still has a mustache.

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 20, 2012 01:23 PM (ovpNn)

453 452 Don't be telling me how to analyze polls.

I'm now done with this. I have no idea why you decided to start concern trolling, but I'm tired of it.

Piss off.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 05:23 PM (dX4hn)

I love you dave. In a bromance sort of way ofcourse.

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 20, 2012 01:24 PM (ovpNn)

454 Jeremiah? You are going to hell for that.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 01:24 PM (dX4hn)

455 T-PHat, the only thing that even remotely "worries" me is that everybody keeps telling you to knock it the fuck off and it only seems to inflame your turgid wittle fingers on the keyboard. Srsly, can't you go jerk off or something? Just briefly?

Posted by: Peaches is caustically optimistic at October 20, 2012 01:25 PM (kpCLl)

456 455 Jeremiah? You are going to hell for that.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 05:24 PM (dX4hn)

You clicked the link didnt you.

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 20, 2012 01:25 PM (ovpNn)

457

Jeremiah? You are going to hell for that.

I think he's already there.

Posted by: eleven at October 20, 2012 01:25 PM (fsLdt)

458 The only thing that worries me at this point is all the trunks of cars outside of city hall full of obama ballots just waiting for election night.

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 20, 2012 01:26 PM (ovpNn)

459 I meant the link, dude. I'm cool with the bromance.

Although I told you to piss off once too *laugh*

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 01:26 PM (dX4hn)

460 That would be "I don't need GOTV Angle"? Let's see, wasn't there another statewide election in 2008 in Nevada? Oh right, it was the Governor, which he WON BY 12 POINTS. Hell of a turnout operation the Dems mounted there. The Independents liked Sandoval and didn't like Angle. Dem turnout had no effect. Your concern is noted. Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 05:14 PM (dX4hn) That election was in 2010, when the Dem registration lead was half of what it is now, AND the Ron Paul cultists weren't in total control of the state and Clark county GOP. 2010 was, despite Reid's (and the other incumbent Dem statewide office holders), a good one for the GOP (they got more votes in the Assembly then the Dems). Of course, the Governor's race was the only one without an incumbent and "Gov. Sunny's" popularity far exceeds the other Republicans by massive margins. But this isn't 2010. The actual and tangible numbers are not good for the GOP. The only thing the GOP has going for it is proven unrealiable pollsters. Early voting starts today and will be the majority of total votes most likely, and comparison with '08 and '10 will tell the true story.

Posted by: The Political Hat at October 20, 2012 01:26 PM (sZTYJ)

461

My eyes. My eyes!

That wasn't nice, jeremiah.

Posted by: wheatie at October 20, 2012 01:26 PM (ipkPX)

462 460 I meant the link, dude. I'm cool with the bromance.

Although I told you to piss off once too *laugh*

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 05:26 PM (dX4hn)

DId you? I dont recall...i was probably too busy fapping to your poll analysis to notice

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 20, 2012 01:27 PM (ovpNn)

463 Peaches - I love you. In a totally not bromance way

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 01:27 PM (dX4hn)

464 The CO. professor who is modelling an easy Romney win is also predictiong Nevada will go to Obama by 52+% points:

http://tinyurl.com/9f4dzfb

^^^
Chart of all the results.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 20, 2012 01:28 PM (zrpqj)

465 I wouldnt put too much hope on nevada.

I live here.

Harry read and his cronies are as dirty as the ass crack of a fat man with chronic diareah.

No matter what the actual vote count they will adjust it with found votes before the counting is finished.

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 20, 2012 01:29 PM (ovpNn)

466 --just went to McDonald's for an Angus Snack Wrap to make up for the 300 calories I didnt have earlier --blood sugar finding its equilibrium now -- mood improving --now I'm at Planet Fatness

Posted by: soothsayer at October 20, 2012 01:29 PM (Af6GM)

467 Heh, yeah it was when you were freaking out about Akin. Ironically, that got me started building the models, because the "OMG, we are going to lose the Senate" eeyorism was so over the top. Ace and CAC were in the middle of that too.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 01:29 PM (dX4hn)

468 Anyone watching ND vs. BYU?

Posted by: Lincolntf at October 20, 2012 01:30 PM (HethX)

469 "Mitt Romney's a Socialist and a Communist and we don't need all this debt to China." http://goo.gl/0IAzx

Posted by: Scobface at October 20, 2012 01:30 PM (IoNBC)

470 Angus Snack Wrap, soothsayer? You intrigue me . . .

Posted by: Peaches is caustically optimistic at October 20, 2012 01:30 PM (kpCLl)

471 Planet Fitness is like a rehab center for the elderly and mentally challenged.

Posted by: soothsayer at October 20, 2012 01:30 PM (i5gpY)

472

Posted by: The Political Hat at October 20, 2012 05:20 PM (sZTYJ)

----------------------------------------

Why don't you go back over to Tepid Air or Politico. I'm sure they'll welcome your comments there.

Posted by: Soona at October 20, 2012 01:30 PM (mY2VW)

473 Is there a website that does a good job of cataloging every poll released?

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 20, 2012 01:31 PM (zrpqj)

474 T-PHat, the only thing that even remotely "worries" me is that everybody keeps telling you to knock it the fuck off and it only seems to inflame your turgid wittle fingers on the keyboard. Srsly, can't you go jerk off or something? Just briefly? Posted by: Peaches is caustically optimistic at October 20, 2012 05:25 PM (kpCLl) You and Dave in Fla (among others) are acting like a bunch of Pollyannas. I've raised some serious concerns and you Pollyanna's just cite pollsters who got Nevada so very wrong in 2010. If the actual numbers coming out of Nevada are irrelevant, then why should the numbers out of Ohio be given any credence? I give them credence, and I give the numbers I'm seeing credence. Things may very well go well for Romney in Nevada, and Heller still has a damn good shot at winning. I hope that I am wrong, and I hope that the registration and absentee numbers (full data... not a poll) are anomalous. But like hell I'm going to act like a Pollyanna.

Posted by: The Political Hat at October 20, 2012 01:31 PM (sZTYJ)

475 Anyone watching ND vs. BYU?

Now I am. Although it looks like the Texas Tech-TCU game might be more of a barn-burner. Just at first glance.

Posted by: Peaches is caustically optimistic at October 20, 2012 01:31 PM (kpCLl)

476

As if we needed proof of the tag-team collusion between Barky and Candy Crowley....

New pic shows them together, right before the debate.

Link in my nic.

Posted by: wheatie at October 20, 2012 01:32 PM (ipkPX)

477 Why don't you go back over to Tepid Air or Politico. I'm sure they'll welcome your comments there. Posted by: Soona at October 20, 2012 05:30 PM (mY2VW) I'm sure you'd feel more comfortable about a Pollyanna sounding chamber...

Posted by: The Political Hat at October 20, 2012 01:33 PM (sZTYJ)

478 473 Posted by: The Political Hat at October 20, 2012 05:20 PM (sZTYJ) Nevada will go Romney Plus, you can blow me.

Posted by: Mr Wonderful at October 20, 2012 01:34 PM (lD8ju)

479 If that chart I posts is to believed, Romney should just stick to the Midwest + Colorado. I mean, it says Minnesota is a much, much easier get than Nevada.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 20, 2012 01:34 PM (zrpqj)

480 Fortunately we don't need Nevada, but the Independent swing is surprising me there. 31 points is a huge swing.

Heller on the other hand is looking good. My concern is Scott Brown, Warren has hit 50% on a poll there. Bad for an incumbent.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 01:34 PM (dX4hn)

481 Obama's done such a great job for Nevada that the state is an economic basket case.

Posted by: Mr Wonderful at October 20, 2012 01:35 PM (lD8ju)

482 Somebody look under the mat and in the flowerbed for the blog keys. Purp? Somebody?

Posted by: Mr. Dave on island time at October 20, 2012 01:35 PM (S6qGD)

483

Our word for the day is...............

wait for it...............

Pollyanna

Posted by: Ronster at October 20, 2012 01:35 PM (H5i76)

484 263 - how about you have a bunch of heavily-armed Aussies and Canadians come and oversee it? Then when it's all over and the multiple-voters are doing time in whichever godforsaken shithole vote cheats get thrown into, at least you have a bunch of people who know what barbecues and beer are all about and you can have a good time with them.

169 - I agree completely with your description of the phenomenon, but in this case I'd call it being punch-drunk. They've taken two heavy hits - Benghazi (the shit about the youtube film-maker being parole-busted for trivialities and Obama whining about the future not belonging to those who insult Islam caused centre-right bloggers in Australia to explode in outrage about his bullshit, even before the truth came out) and the first debate. Everything they've done since has been fumble-fingered, and the more they try to recover, the more they miss their return swings and get pounded some more.

Posted by: perturbed at October 20, 2012 01:35 PM (HvCLl)

485 As if we needed proof of the tag-team collusion between Barky and Candy Crowley....

New pic shows them together, right before the debate.

Link in my nic.

Posted by: wheatie at October 20, 2012 05:32 PM (ipkPX)

-------------------------------------------------

Another click, another ten years off my life.

Posted by: Soona at October 20, 2012 01:35 PM (mY2VW)

486 474 - RealClearPolitics. Even has links to the internals.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 01:36 PM (dX4hn)

487 I never understand people who insist on hanging out and bothering people who don't want him around and say so, repeatedly. Like anybody is going to take a mental case like that seriously.

Posted by: Peaches is caustically optimistic at October 20, 2012 01:36 PM (kpCLl)

488 So if this is considered trolling go ahead and jump all over me but since according to TPH Nevada has a large contingent of Paultards, what happens if Gary Johnson picks up a several percentage points of "republicans"? What kind of effect would that have on Romney's lead with independents?

Posted by: Adam at October 20, 2012 01:38 PM (1//Wu)

489 From the northeast just heard that Obama folks are asking for supporters to go to Ohio to drive people to vote for early voting. An acquaintance is all excited about flying out on Friday- he's a big O supporter.

Posted by: blb at October 20, 2012 01:38 PM (hwg80)

490

483...Think he put her in a binder?

Maybe a saddle...

Posted by: wheatie at October 20, 2012 01:38 PM (ipkPX)

491 I'll be comparing the Early voter numbers with '08 and '10. I truly hope they are better. If they end up being better for Republicans then the absentee ballot requests so far, I'll revise my outlook based on the facts. If you want to ignore bad numbers, that is your prerogative. Just don't throw a temper-tantrum when I point them out. Now, I'm off to beer & a Bruce Campbell-athon

Posted by: The Political Hat at October 20, 2012 01:38 PM (sZTYJ)

492 488 474 - RealClearPolitics. Even has links to the internals.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 05:36 PM (dX4hn)

But, they don't actually seem to save everything. For example, they drop off previous days of Gallup % Rasmussen tracking.

Plus, they don't seem to have data going back to the 1980's.

...and they don't allow you to download their database of polls.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 20, 2012 01:39 PM (zrpqj)

493 "What kind of effect would that have on Romney's lead with independents?"

None, the Gary Johnson vote is already factored into those polls. The Ind swing in NV is from Obama to Romney, with any movement to Johnson factored in.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 01:40 PM (dX4hn)

494 489 I never understand people who insist on hanging out and bothering people who don't want him around and say so, repeatedly. Like anybody is going to take a mental case like that seriously. Posted by: Peaches is caustically optimistic at October 20, 2012 05:36 PM (kpCLl) Just some fucking Obama concern troll

Posted by: Mr Wonderful at October 20, 2012 01:40 PM (lD8ju)

495 Dave, I need your opinion.

Is this image technically Safe for Work?

http://tinyurl.com/95uwt93

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 20, 2012 01:41 PM (ovpNn)

496 Bruce Campbell ?
well that explains allot...

Posted by: AmericanDawg at October 20, 2012 01:41 PM (XIsD/)

497 If you want historicals, you have to look around. But after time, you can't get them. I tried to get to some 2008 internals a few days ago and failed miserably.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 01:42 PM (dX4hn)

498 RealClearPolitics. Even has links to the internals. Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 05:36 PM (dX4hn) Where on the page below are the internals? http://tinyurl.com/8w2qok5

Posted by: The Political Hat at October 20, 2012 01:42 PM (sZTYJ)

499 Every Mormon in Nevada, save Harry Reid (who is too busy cruising Boy Scout get-togethers) will crawl to vote for Romney in Nevada,

Posted by: Mr Wonderful at October 20, 2012 01:42 PM (lD8ju)

500 Dave, I need your opinion.

Is this image technically Safe for Work?

http://tinyurl.com/95uwt93

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 20, 2012 05:41 PM (ovpNn)

--------------------------------------------------

Not going to click. No sir, not going to click. Not going to cl...........

Posted by: Soona at October 20, 2012 01:43 PM (mY2VW)

501 I think equating Sharon Angle to Mitt Romney is the stupidest thing ever written on this blog.

Not even Capt. America's No.1 fan, Palin Steele, came close.

Posted by: weft cut-loop [/i] [/b] at October 20, 2012 01:43 PM (qrpxS)

502 Jeremiah - Should I be concerned that you are out looking for pictures like that?

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 01:43 PM (dX4hn)

503 499 If you want historicals, you have to look around. But after time, you can't get them. I tried to get to some 2008 internals a few days ago and failed miserably.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 05:42 PM (dX4hn)

Congress should pass a law requiring all polling companies to register their results in national polling database. That's what I would do, if I were president.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 20, 2012 01:43 PM (zrpqj)

504 501 Every Mormon in Nevada, save Harry Reid (who is too busy cruising Boy Scout get-togethers) will crawl to vote for Romney in Nevada,

Posted by: Mr Wonderful at October 20, 2012 05:42 PM (lD8ju)

It wont matter. Nevada is as dirty as chicago when it comes to union backed vote finding right when you need it.

We shoudl win Nevada. Harry Reid and his ilk will steal it though. Luckily we dont need Nevada, its just gravey.

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 20, 2012 01:44 PM (ovpNn)

505 Soona, you'll be sorry if you don't.

Posted by: Ronster at October 20, 2012 01:44 PM (H5i76)

506 Not going to click. No sir, not going to click. Not going to cl...........

Posted by: Soona at October 20, 2012 05:43 PM (mY2VW)

--------------------------------------------

AAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!

Posted by: Soona at October 20, 2012 01:44 PM (mY2VW)

507 Weft cut - Oh we have untapped capacity for posting stupid

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 01:45 PM (dX4hn)

508 504 Jeremiah - Should I be concerned that you are out looking for pictures like that?

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 05:43 PM (dX4hn)

Nah, i am trying to find a profile picture to use when i register for daily kos (so that they think i am a true liberal) in preperation for the trolling i intend to do there starting election night.

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 20, 2012 01:45 PM (ovpNn)

509 FL's stomping SC, 27-8.

Posted by: Scobface at October 20, 2012 01:45 PM (IoNBC)

510 According to professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry, Iowa will be the state that puts Romney over the top right after winning Ohio, Florida and Virginia before that. (Talking %-vote here, not timeline).

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 20, 2012 01:46 PM (zrpqj)

511 489 I never understand people who insist on hanging out and bothering people who don't want him around and say so, repeatedly. Like anybody is going to take a mental case like that seriously. Posted by: Peaches is caustically optimistic at October 20, 2012 05:36 PM (kpCLl) Just some fucking Obama concern troll Posted by: Mr Wonderful at October 20, 2012 05:40 PM (lD8ju) Not often some dipshit Pollyanna declares that I am a concern troll because I refuse to blindly assume everything is spiffy. The actual numbers are a concern for worry. If you are not worried by that, and instead put full faith in pollsters that screwed up royally the last time, that is your prerogative.

Posted by: The Political Hat at October 20, 2012 01:47 PM (sZTYJ)

512 ...than NH, MN, CO, PA and WI will add insult to injury.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 20, 2012 01:48 PM (zrpqj)

513 I know that economic model is giving Romney like 330 EVs. Which state is the cut off (the 50.1% for Romney)?

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 01:48 PM (dX4hn)

514 I just want a landslide stomping that lets him know in no uncertain terms he IS Jimmy Carter II

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 20, 2012 01:49 PM (ovpNn)

515 Romney wins PA, and we can all go to bed early.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 01:50 PM (dX4hn)

516 Wisconsin and New Mexico were on the edge, less than a half-% point.

The chart...

http://tinyurl.com/9f4dzfb

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 20, 2012 01:50 PM (zrpqj)

517 "Political Hat"=re-branded Gerg complete with dead-end screen name link.

Posted by: LeBron Steinman at October 20, 2012 01:51 PM (jfWE9)

518 I just want a landslide stomping that lets him know in no uncertain terms he IS Jimmy Carter II

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 20, 2012 05:49 PM (ovpNn)

------------------------------------------------

45 States.

Posted by: Soona at October 20, 2012 01:51 PM (mY2VW)

519 Everyone please remember that the left wing college professor quit polling in Ohio, Virginia and Florida more than a week ago - saying they were too far gone in Romney's favor for Obama to have any chance of winning any of them.

If their internal polls weren't giving the Democrats really bad news about Ohio The President wouldn't have been campaigning in blue regions (college campuses and Cleveland) of the state; he is scrounging desperately for votes. Remember watch where the candidates are campaigning to see what their internal polls tell them.

Posted by: An Observation at October 20, 2012 01:51 PM (ylhEn)

520 Not often some dipshit Pollyanna declares that I am a concern troll because I refuse to blindly assume everything is spiffy.

I would offer to beat you senseless, but apparently that ship has sailed . . .

Posted by: Peaches is caustically optimistic at October 20, 2012 01:51 PM (kpCLl)

521 517 Romney wins PA, and we can all go to bed early.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 05:50 PM (dX4hn)

Go to bed? are you kidding?

Ima go hop in my truck which has a newley installed PS system and slowley drive through the neighborhoods screaming at the top of my lungs in a high pitched whiney effete voice...OBAMA LOST....ITS OVER...DEMOCRACY DIED TONIGHT...WE ARE DOOMED!

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 20, 2012 01:51 PM (ovpNn)

522 Actually, that is an older prediction based on August econ. numbers. They did an update which got them a little higher to the 330ev number, but I haven't seen a full report from that result. All I've seen is a press release that says NM tipped over to Romney and CO was even stronger for the Republican ticket.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 20, 2012 01:52 PM (zrpqj)

523 Interesting chart.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 01:53 PM (dX4hn)

524 Romney wins PA, and we can all go to bed early.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 05:50 PM (dX4hn)

---------------------------------------------------

Not me. I'll be calling all the liberals that I know and laughing hysterically. Nothing else. Just non-sensical cackling.

Posted by: Soona at October 20, 2012 01:54 PM (mY2VW)

525 Peaches is bringing the funny today

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 20, 2012 01:54 PM (dX4hn)

526 Oh, lookie, new posts! Let's go over and see if they, too, smell like cat pee.

Posted by: Peaches is caustically optimistic at October 20, 2012 01:56 PM (kpCLl)

527 517 Romney wins PA, and we can all go to bed early.

No way, dude. If that's the case I absolutely won't go to bed early. I might not go to bed at all. I want to be up to see every shiny tear rolling down the faces of the Barrybots. EVERY. SINGLE. TEAR.

Posted by: Dack Thrombosis at October 20, 2012 02:00 PM (BuSM8)

528 Honestly P-hat why are you here?

Shouldn't you be spending your time in Nevada Blogs and Comment sections of newspapers IN - N E V A D A ?

We're just a Moron Horde thats peppered throughout this great country...

Posted by: AmericanDawg at October 20, 2012 02:00 PM (XIsD/)

529 524...prediction based on August econ. numbers....

Posted by: Serious Cat

That econ.#s model has never, ever been wrong

Posted by: Dept. of Accuracy Dept. at October 20, 2012 02:03 PM (BAnPT)

530 Right now I'm wondering if Bill Clinton's thinking "Let's see here, if Obama wins he never takes my calls again, if Romney wins I don't ever have to take Obama's calls again..."

Posted by: JEM at October 20, 2012 02:20 PM (o+SC1)

531 Romney is busing in workers from CA all month to work in Nevada hitting the pavements.

Hope it works.

Posted by: PJ at October 20, 2012 02:38 PM (DQHjw)

532 Dave in Fla: Romney wins PA, and we can all go to bed early.

What will, realistically, be our first indication?

In an unbiased world I'd guess NC and NH. The midnight vote tally's up in Dixville Notch NH will be symbolic, but I'd say if there's a general swing we'll see it in NH.

That said, realistically, no network will call a large eastern state early against Obama, regardless of the trends so long as there is still voting in OH or CO or IA or WI, so VA will be dragged out as long as possible, NC could be as well.

NH is small enough that it come in quick, but it's likely to be close. NC is larger, but will hopefully will have a significant gap -- so, it's a trade off. If states like NJ are too close to call for a while, we're in good shape.

Posted by: Uriah Heep at October 20, 2012 04:37 PM (jhI6f)

533 Florida's been gone for a while and Romney will win it by a lot more than 2 or 3 points!

Posted by: Frank S at October 21, 2012 07:35 AM (B9edC)

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