September 10, 2012
— Ace Via @justkarl. Something to keep in mind.
Since Labor Day, the media have released about 20 polls on the presidential race. Three show a dead heat, one shows George W. Bush leading by a single percentage point, and the rest show Al Gore leading by one to 10 points. In the latest polls, Gore leads by an average of five points. It's fashionable at this stage to caution that "anything can happen," that Bush is "retooling," and that the numbers can turn in Bush's favor just as easily as they turned against him. But they can't. The numbers are moving toward Gore because fundamental dynamics tilt the election in his favor. The only question has been how far those dynamics would carry him. Now that he has passed Bush, the race is over.Yes, in principle, Bush could win. The stock market could crash. Gore could be caught shagging an intern. Bush could electrify the country with the greatest performance in the history of presidential debates. But barring such a grossly unlikely event, there is no reason to think Bush will recover. Ultimately, reasons drive elections. For months, pundits yapped about Bush's lead in the polls without scrutinizing the basis of that lead. Now they're doing the same to Gore. But look closely at the trends beneath the horse-race numbers, and you'll realize why it's practically impossible to turn those numbers around. Gore doesn't just have the lead. On each underlying factor, he has the upside as well.
It should be noted the "underlying factors" do not presage well for Old Man Obama this time around.
There are four possible responses to being behind in polls; we should be at stage 1. The rest are unwarranted, at least at the moment.
Stage 1. Concern
Stage 2. Great concern
Stage 3. Panic
Stage 4. Spazzing out with full, 100% Retard Strength, going at people like a whirlwind of elbows and teeth.
So we're behind. We've been behind before.
CNN, Meanwhile... has Obama over 50%, at 52%, but I've now been told by two people that if you subtract out the number of Democrats and Republicans they cop to (Democrats +5%), it turns out they only contacted 37 independents.
Not 37%. 37 total.
Among those 37, Romney's up 54-40. But then again: 37 of them.
Posted by: Ace at
02:06 PM
| Comments (326)
Post contains 399 words, total size 3 kb.
CROSSTABS!!!!
No concern is needed AT ALL until Obama leads in a likely voter poll with a D+3 sample weight.
Posted by: imp at September 10, 2012 02:09 PM (UaxA0)
@philipaklein @FixAaron: Good find from @GOP12, who notes that CNN shows Romney up 54-40 among indies. Suggests Dem oversample. http://t.co/zLlJ59CD
Posted by: Miss80sBaby at September 10, 2012 02:09 PM (YjDyJ)
Posted by: Jack at September 10, 2012 02:10 PM (wUFaM)
Oh. We're not supposed to do that now? Ummm *stops sharpening elbows* Fine. I didn't want to have any fun anyway.
Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD/Whiteboard 2012 at September 10, 2012 02:10 PM (Gk3SS)
Posted by: The MFM at September 10, 2012 02:10 PM (eHIJJ)
Posted by: Rusty Nail at September 10, 2012 02:11 PM (QxGmu)
Posted by: Serious Cat at September 10, 2012 02:12 PM (zrpqj)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at September 10, 2012 02:12 PM (+tqYo)
Posted by: steevy at September 10, 2012 02:13 PM (6o4Fb)
I'll go with the approved Moron option
Stage 4. Spazzing out with full, 100% Retard Strength, going at people like a whirlwind of elbows and teeth.
Posted by: Chief Lying Harvard at September 10, 2012 02:13 PM (nTgAI)
Posted by: Yip in Texas at September 10, 2012 02:13 PM (Mrdk1)
Sorry Ace....you can believe we are behind all you want...Not buying here..Swing States we are doing pretty good and will be doing better shortly....but do not worry....PPP will go PLUS DEM 20 to get Obama eqaul or higher....LOL!! Obama 46/45 in Swing States....is a joke...no bounce except one point....He started last week ay 45 percent in Swing State and today he is at 46 percent....Big One point Bounce after all that BS!! Sorry Ace...doom and gloom go join Allah you two are perfect!
But no Ace...you can think we are behind....but I think we are tied in Swing States or maybe better....
Posted by: bluerose75 at September 10, 2012 02:14 PM (HDcKc)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at September 10, 2012 02:14 PM (+tqYo)
Posted by: Dr. Varno at September 10, 2012 02:14 PM (mZ8Y2)
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at September 10, 2012 02:14 PM (8y9MW)
If a poll does not release their internals, there is no reason to believe anything they say. They (CNN, Gallup, and others) are pulling numbers out of their asses. They are discounting every single damn election since 2008.
Posted by: NWConservative at September 10, 2012 02:14 PM (M1gmo)
Posted by: phoenixgirl, team dagny at September 10, 2012 02:15 PM (cz7Un)
I had to remind my mom last night, when she told me she was leaning McCaskill, about her not paying the $300,000 tax on her airplane until she got caught. If there were any other candidate but Akin running, the PACs could be running commercials reminding voters about that...
Posted by: Palandine at September 10, 2012 02:15 PM (g7D8V)
Posted by: Toldyaso at September 10, 2012 02:15 PM (/YJYi)
Will it work? Maybe. Even with less people watching the news that is still some significant free advertising for the dems. and its not only news, its every freaking show on TV, not even subtle anymore.
Nevertheless, I am only at Concern Level 1. It is still the economy, stupid.
Posted by: Guy Mohawk at September 10, 2012 02:15 PM (PHb2k)
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at September 10, 2012 02:16 PM (8y9MW)
Posted by: Truman North, iPhone buffoon at September 10, 2012 02:16 PM (Y6uZ1)
>>Yes, in principle, Bush could win. The stock market could crash. Gore could be caught shagging an intern.
or sexually assaulting a masseuse.
Posted by: garrett at September 10, 2012 02:17 PM (0j3R9)
Posted by: nickless at September 10, 2012 02:17 PM (MMC8r)
Posted by: NWConservative at September 10, 2012 02:18 PM (M1gmo)
Posted by: avi at September 10, 2012 02:18 PM (51xVX)
Posted by: nickless at September 10, 2012 02:18 PM (MMC8r)
Posted by: The Political Hat at September 10, 2012 02:18 PM (XvHmy)
Posted by: steevy at September 10, 2012 02:18 PM (6o4Fb)
Posted by: Guy Mohawk at September 10, 2012 02:18 PM (PHb2k)
Ah yes, the attempt at a preference cascade by the left wing media industrial complex.
I think its more they're trying to prevent the cascade for Romney. They have to fight hard to keep the bandwagon from getting any momentum because they know what will happen once that starts up. Obama can't get that, not this time. But he can stop Romney from getting it, maybe. If its close enough he can maybe manufacture a win. That can't happen if people start to pile on.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 02:19 PM (r4wIV)
Posted by: LIGuy at September 10, 2012 02:20 PM (+usC4)
The media has this weird condescension about black Christianity. The media abhors Christianity as some monstrously stupid cult, but strangely... only in white people. By the way, this kid seems pretty darned good, alas. I say "alas" because he competes against my hated Giants.
Yeah. I love me some RGIII, but it was really weird for this Cowboys fan to be cheering for the Redskins yesterday afternoon.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at September 10, 2012 02:21 PM (8y9MW)
Posted by: Chief Lying Harvard at September 10, 2012 02:22 PM (nTgAI)
Posted by: TD at September 10, 2012 02:22 PM (DQMcq)
He only has one of those advantages this time: the media is in his pocket, but they're not nearly as sycophantic and euphoric this time. They're trying but you can tell their heart isn't really in it.
I just don't see him winning. It could happen, but I just don't see it.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 02:22 PM (r4wIV)
Posted by: The Political Hat at September 10, 2012 02:22 PM (XvHmy)
Posted by: IdowhatIwant at September 10, 2012 02:22 PM (a4CUi)
He's still [relatively] broke, right?
Posted by: Tonic Dog at September 10, 2012 02:22 PM (X/+QT)
Ronald Reagan, both George Bushes, Nixon.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 02:23 PM (r4wIV)
Posted by: bluerose75 at September 10, 2012 02:23 PM (HDcKc)
You mean besides every Republican to win the election since the 1940s?
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at September 10, 2012 02:23 PM (8y9MW)
He only has one of those advantages this time: the media is in his pocket, but they're not nearly as sycophantic and euphoric this time. They're trying but you can tell their heart isn't really in it.
I just don't see him winning. It could happen, but I just don't see it.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 06:22 PM (r4wIV)
Hard for me to add up too. I just can't see it.
Posted by: The Jackhole at September 10, 2012 02:23 PM (nTgAI)
Posted by: The Mega Independent at September 10, 2012 02:23 PM (6JMZR)
Posted by: Gordon undead Ramsay at September 10, 2012 02:23 PM (9HhTH)
Posted by: eureka! at September 10, 2012 02:23 PM (cTjRR)
Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 02:24 PM (LRFds)
Posted by: BCochran1981 at September 10, 2012 02:24 PM (GEICT)
Posted by: mama winger in paul ryan's district at September 10, 2012 02:24 PM (P6QsQ)
Posted by: Malia in DC at September 10, 2012 02:24 PM (wIgpo)
Posted by: mama winger in paul ryan's district at September 10, 2012 02:25 PM (P6QsQ)
So who are these pollsters calling? Democrat districts or members of Donks' families?
Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at September 10, 2012 02:25 PM (eHIJJ)
Posted by: Wyatt's Torch at September 10, 2012 02:26 PM (zxrQh)
Posted by: Malia in DC at September 10, 2012 06:24 PM (wIgpo)
I taught her well. I know you may be starving but what do you think about my $25,000 outift?
Posted by: Mooch at September 10, 2012 02:26 PM (/YJYi)
Posted by: Napoleonic Press Corps at September 10, 2012 02:27 PM (g+iEL)
1) Over sample Dems and under sample Repubs and Indies.
2) Post the "poll" results on every website, mention them in every newscast and print them in every paper.
2a) Voters get depressed and stay home, figuring that it's already over
3) Just in case, spread the word like crazy when all of the stay at home Democrats vote early on election day to show that the exit polls show who has already won
4) Call elections early in states with different time zones to depress votes in Racist Jesusland portion of the state
5) Proclaim that the election results showed just how accurate the early polls were
Okay people, here are your marching orders: man up. Get your ass and those of your like-minded relatives and friends to the polls on election day. If you need motivation (I know: Romney), think of how much joy you'll feel when Chrissy Matthews melts down on air, or when Mad-cow pulls out her uterus in protest of the results. Those things alone should motivate you.
Posted by: physics geek at September 10, 2012 02:27 PM (llWHs)
This with a obvious fresh pantload of shit will get you anything you want in life. I had a sales manager at CarMax™ throw me the keys and title to a '97 Subaru Outback and I didn't even get within 10 feet of him. I get free meals at Denny'®, pet food, movie rentals, pool supplies - and I don't even have a pool! It's really opened a lot of doors for me and my family.
Posted by: Dang at September 10, 2012 02:28 PM (R18D0)
This whole f*cking last four years has been a drag. Ever since that **** McCain got the nomination, really.
Posted by: The Mega Independent at September 10, 2012 02:28 PM (6JMZR)
38, Guy look at Rasmussen's Swing State Tracking Poll today: it is 46/45 Obama...ONE POINT up after the whole DNC and the bounce...One point...he started the week at 45 percent....all the DNC hype he gained 1 point in the Rasmussen Swing State Tracking...that is the CRUCIAL number to look at....not the nationwide number because who knows where he polled.
All results today are from Weekend Polling, including the three day tracking polls...which will favor Dems and with the Nationals you have the DNC reaction. CNN did their poll over the weekend as well...and Romney was still up with Indies 54-40?.....Must be some serious Dem oversampling going on one way or the other.
Posted by: bluerose75 at September 10, 2012 02:28 PM (HDcKc)
We've only just begun the real process of attacking the bastard. None of this, and I mean none, matters until 1 month before the election, at most. The independents are too stupid to hold onto an opinion longer than that when new info is flying at them.
All we need to do is keep in the fight, and pound the crap out of Obastard and his commie buddies when we get in the home stretch.
Keep calm and carry on.
Posted by: Reactionary at September 10, 2012 02:28 PM (jfeoD)
Posted by: Interested Party at September 10, 2012 02:30 PM (RE+1w)
Posted by: steevy at September 10, 2012 02:30 PM (6o4Fb)
I'll stick to polls accompanied by CAC maps.
Posted by: fluffy at September 10, 2012 02:30 PM (z9HTb)
Posted by: Fleet Street POLLING at September 10, 2012 02:31 PM (g+iEL)
Posted by: steevy at September 10, 2012 02:31 PM (6o4Fb)
Posted by: Y-not at September 10, 2012 02:31 PM (5H6zj)
Either way, this election will be decided by political idiots. But I have faith that Americans, as a whole, do not want four more years of this ****.
Posted by: The Mega Independent at September 10, 2012 02:31 PM (6JMZR)
Ace, everyone knows you never go full on retard.
Posted by: Kirk Lazarus at September 10, 2012 02:32 PM (1grxW)
Posted by: Uncle Milty at September 10, 2012 02:32 PM (8J5Ck)
Posted by: Havedash at September 10, 2012 02:32 PM (ToMJU)
Posted by: Mooch at September 10, 2012 02:32 PM (zxrQh)
It's out of Obama's control. Who says, "Yeah, I want four more years of what we just had. Who knows... it'll probably get even worse. Yippee!"
Posted by: The Economy, Un(der)employment, and Debt at September 10, 2012 02:32 PM (eHIJJ)
I truly believe that Gallup "leaked" those threatening e-mails from Axlerod to warn us that all polls are bunk this season. Who knows who ELSE Axelrod threatened? The pollsters needed an "event" to explain why they're suddenly finding good numbers for O and they decided that the DNC would be the excuse.
I don't for one minute believe that my fellow Americans were at all impressed by O's empty speech, Fluke, female Howard Dean Granholm, any of the other speakers, the booing of God, abortionpalooze, etc. The pollsters are threatened and needed to find good polls for O.
I'm very thankful those e-mails were "leaked" by Gallup; they did us a great service.
Posted by: Aslan's Girl at September 10, 2012 02:33 PM (KL49F)
amen...anyone 25 and under only understands the engine of US dynamism because they sought the knowledge.
The more young'ums he gets off the couch the more like Choom pulls out the upset.
Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 02:33 PM (LRFds)
Chelsea Clinton,Sasha and Malia Obama.
It's been too long since we've had a good moustache in the White House.
Posted by: garrett at September 10, 2012 02:34 PM (0j3R9)
Here are my comments about Bush. In general, the base wanted to vote for Bush. They wanted to vote for Bush more than they wanted to vote against Gore (and by extension Clinton) and certainl than against Kerry (who was the challenger). I think Dems had different view. Their base wanted to vote against Bush more than vote for either Gore or Kerry who were both pretty lackluster candidates. That has always been my concern with Romney. The base wants to vote against Obama more than voting for Romney. Now Obama is so bad, it may be enough (I think it actually will be enough). And Romney may yet give more reasons to want to vote for him (the Ryan pick helped).
That being said, the Bush/Gore election is certainly different. There really wasn't much of a difference (or known difference) in the candidates. Now looking back on it, we can see there is a big difference. And I am thankful Bush was in office and that Gore was able to fleece millions on some environmental ponzi scheme. Good work if you can get it. But this election shows a much starker contrast between the candidates.
I think the debates will be very important for Romney. Head to head, he really needs to go at Obama and show how different his worldview is from Obama's. One big debate moment can cinch this for Romney and maybe guaranty a landslide.
Posted by: SH at September 10, 2012 02:34 PM (gmeXX)
Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 02:34 PM (LRFds)
Posted by: Uncle Milty at September 10, 2012 06:32 PM (8J5Ck)
One key difference: Obama was not burdened by having a record of gross failure yet at that point. Plus, everybody was geeked about having a sortof-black president. Now the novelty is gone for many, and for the rest - they've seen what Hope N Change got them.
Posted by: Reactionary at September 10, 2012 02:34 PM (jfeoD)
Right around this time in '08, people in the dextroblogosphere were starting to discreetly clear their throats and point to the polls and say to the McCain campaign, "Uh, fellas? Hello? Are you seeing this too?"
And what the crackerjack McCain campaign operatives said was, soothingly, "Things are FINE. Couldn't be better. Don't panic. Don't be Eeyores. We anticipated this. It'll all come clean, the Democrats' bounce will fade, we'll have a tightened up race by Election Day, and win it."
We all know how that ended.
So what are the Romney campaign operatives saying now?
"Things are FINE. Couldn't be better. Don't panic. Don't be Eeyores. We anticipated this. It'll all come clean, the Democrats' bounce will fade, we'll have a tightened up race by Election Day, and win it."
That sounds oddly familiar for some reason.
Oh! Wait! I get it. Romney's campaign operatives include a bunch of McCain retreads from '08. Back to re-implement their strategy that worked so well last time.
What could go wrong with that?
Posted by: torquewrench at September 10, 2012 02:35 PM (ymG7s)
Posted by: Dave S. at September 10, 2012 02:35 PM (/BwGa)
Posted by: bluerose75 at September 10, 2012 02:35 PM (HDcKc)
P.S. With all that said, we & R/R need to act like these fake polls are real. The whole point of fake polls is to make the sheeple fall into group-think and follow the herd. We must not let these fake numbers seep into voters' conciousness. We must pretend we are 20 points behind.
Posted by: Aslan's Girl at September 10, 2012 02:35 PM (KL49F)
Posted by: Adam at September 10, 2012 02:36 PM (/YJYi)
Posted by: Interested Party at September 10, 2012 02:36 PM (RE+1w)
Posted by: Crispian at September 10, 2012 02:36 PM (uBMtY)
Posted by: Windy City POLLING at September 10, 2012 02:36 PM (g+iEL)
Forget f*cking Pennsylvania
And ignore any "projections" that don't show it some shade of blue.
Posted by: The Mega Independent at September 10, 2012 02:37 PM (6JMZR)
Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 02:37 PM (lEcZh)
How many people you know voted for McCain will vote for the JEF this time?
How many people you know voted for the JEF last time but not this time?
Incumbents don't win when they lose prior voters and do not gain new ones.
Posted by: eureka! at September 10, 2012 02:37 PM (cTjRR)
How about with dancers wrapped around them?
I like those polls.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at September 10, 2012 02:37 PM (2b4yb)
Michigan is in play. I'm cautiously optimistic it goes Red. I'm virtually certain WI will go red. BackwardsBoy informs me it looks like FL will go red.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at September 10, 2012 02:37 PM (8y9MW)
Posted by: Interested Party at September 10, 2012 02:37 PM (RE+1w)
Something they tried again in 2004. Only they shot their TANG story too soon.
Also: I keep saying, don't bother with the media-affiliated polls. They've gone so far for the JEF, they've already rationalized away any reason to maintain their credibility. None of them will honestly produce a result that puts the JEF any more than 3% behind. Up to and including election day. They don't care--they only care to win.
Worry about the non-affiliated polls. And then, only those who release ALL the internals.
Posted by: RoyalOil at September 10, 2012 02:37 PM (imtbm)
Posted by: Max Power at September 10, 2012 02:37 PM (q177U)
Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 02:38 PM (lEcZh)
Don't you know it. And we're prepping for it like you wouldn't believe. We figure we'll convince at least a third of America that Mormons drink puppy blood instead of alcohol.
Posted by: MFM Frontmen at September 10, 2012 02:38 PM (eHIJJ)
Me, about five times a day, dammit. I'm not kidding. Never register independent unless you want to get hammered by pollsters.
As Ace has pointed out in the past (but doesn't take his own advice) the polls are crap until about October, when they have to tighten down and get serious or be a laughing stock.
Until that final crunch they can be as wild, outrageous, off base, and mis-sampled as they want to get their political point across.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 02:38 PM (r4wIV)
Posted by: Dufuq Izthis at September 10, 2012 02:38 PM (zNbHv)
Posted by: Daybrother at September 10, 2012 02:38 PM (1FkrP)
Posted by: Max Power at September 10, 2012 02:39 PM (q177U)
Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 02:39 PM (lEcZh)
The mainstream media polls are mainstream media polls. Mainstrean media is an arm of the Democrat Party and is not a beacon of journalistic integrity. Ask yourself what interest they serve. Ask yourself if they have an interest in seeing a Republican elected.
Now - what can work to stop the Republicans from being elected? Obama's stellar record? The booming economy? Our bright and rosy future under another 4 years of Barry? No.
The only thing that can stop the Republicans from being elected is painting a scenario where Obama is inevitable and there's no real chance for Romney. So you might as well give up.
Because, and this is my main point, they KNOW that the other side is NOT fired up to vote for Obama this time around. Their side is discouraged so the only play they have is to attempt to equalize that discouragement and duplicate it on our side.
This is why posts like Drew's this morning infuriated me. Because this type of talk is aiding and abetting them in their mission.
They are going to try to defeat our side by lowering morale. Why would we even THINK of playing along?
Posted by: mama winger in paul ryan's district at September 10, 2012 02:40 PM (P6QsQ)
And them only over a time period for trends, and even then, only the last month or two of the race, when they have to bear down and get serious.
Polling organizations live and die on accuracy, they can play all the games they want early on, but if they're way off in the end, they lose business. They have to get it closer to reality by the election.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 02:40 PM (r4wIV)
And, yes, Romney's campaign is starting to remind me of McCain's. And all I can say is: "NOOOoooooooooooo!"
Romney had better get his head in the game and quick.
Do you think Romney should do some major speeches on the economy? It needs to be covered by major networks not just CSPAN, like O's "great race speech" about Wright. Romney needs to call a presser or something. Or use his huge warchest and buy time like Perot did. Something.
Posted by: Aslan's Girl at September 10, 2012 02:40 PM (KL49F)
Posted by: Daybrother at September 10, 2012 02:40 PM (1FkrP)
Posted by: SH at September 10, 2012 02:40 PM (gmeXX)
Posted by: joeindc44 will boo your chosen deity on TV some day too at September 10, 2012 02:41 PM (QxSug)
Every electoral college victory I have gamed out has left PA to the Dems.
Well, except for the fantasy one in which Romney takes 48 states and has Obama put in stocks in front of the White House.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at September 10, 2012 02:41 PM (2b4yb)
Honest question: Is there any poll out there showing a D +4 or more in party self-ID?
Posted by: RoyalOil at September 10, 2012 02:41 PM (imtbm)
One thing that would make Ras make sense would be the Blue state indys trending Choom....
which means we won't make big gains in the blue at all...
*blech*
Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 02:41 PM (LRFds)
Perfect post - thank you. This is only the beginning of the full on, "Romney Campaign Faltering, Worried" angst-ridden headlines. By this time next month, headlines will be announcing an Obama win - before a single vote is cast. We have to be mentally ready.
Posted by: Daisy at September 10, 2012 02:42 PM (4h5id)
Posted by: Windy City POLLING at September 10, 2012 06:36 PM (g+iEL)
Even Cubs' fans aren't that delusional, LOL, but I'm sure there are some fake pollsters who would find that result.
Posted by: Aslan's Girl at September 10, 2012 02:42 PM (KL49F)
Posted by: Miss80sBaby at September 10, 2012 02:42 PM (YjDyJ)
Posted by: Wyatt's Torch at September 10, 2012 02:42 PM (zxrQh)
94..Dave here in Florida some great ads have begun to air from the Super Pacs for Romney and they are really good! You are right....the timing for the ads is now and they are indeed coming here. Now I am in a the biggest swing state of them all and my Orlando area(Central Florida) is the must win area of the state. He who wins Central Florida(Tampa, Orlando and Daytona) wins the state. The ads started airing during the NFL yesterday and just saw one during the US Open Men's Final in Tennis airing now.
The swing state ad blitz has begun....those of us in the swing states will see it more than anyone else. In Florida we are feeling better about our chances for Romney all the time....GOP officials here are doing fabulous on the GOTV and know what needs to be done. I know some people will not see that in their states but here I do! The swing states is where the action is. I feel Romney is up in the swing states....Obama has been here for 2 days straight in Florida and that should tell you something. And it rained all day yesterday on Obama...lol!
Posted by: bluerose75 at September 10, 2012 02:42 PM (HDcKc)
Posted by: Interested Party at September 10, 2012 02:42 PM (RE+1w)
Posted by: Kevin in ABQ at September 10, 2012 02:42 PM (XrGnJ)
Posted by: SH at September 10, 2012 02:43 PM (gmeXX)
if you emanis there any tracking showing the partisan split D+4...no none at all Ras is the only one to track it and release the method and they say R+4...
"we'll see"
2010 was D+2 tops
Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 02:43 PM (LRFds)
Posted by: Mayor Tom Bradley at September 10, 2012 02:43 PM (pXAES)
Posted by: janetoo at September 10, 2012 02:44 PM (R+fMx)
Posted by: The Jackhole at September 10, 2012 02:44 PM (nTgAI)
Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 02:44 PM (lEcZh)
Posted by: JDTAY at September 10, 2012 02:45 PM (a0nis)
Posted by: Wyatt's Torch at September 10, 2012 06:42 PM
--------------------------
That's what they look like in their larval stage
Posted by: Very Concerned Pachyderm at September 10, 2012 02:45 PM (ay6+/)
Posted by: jwpaine at September 10, 2012 02:45 PM (FUozQ)
Posted by: The Jackhole at September 10, 2012 06:44 PM
You think Rmoney is not preparing for these debates ? He is Letting Obama show his cards .
Lots
Posted by: The Jackhole at September 10, 2012 02:45 PM (nTgAI)
Posted by: Interested Party at September 10, 2012 02:45 PM (RE+1w)
Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 02:45 PM (lEcZh)
Damn Lies.
Statistics.
Polls.
In that order..
----------------
Lies
Damn Lies
Statistics
Polls
Obama
You forgot one.
Posted by: Evan Maughan at September 10, 2012 02:45 PM (C0YLz)
Posted by: Jon at September 10, 2012 02:46 PM (t1NLo)
Posted by: Jon at September 10, 2012 02:46 PM (/YJYi)
Posted by: Mooch at September 10, 2012 06:32 PM (zxrQh)
Oh, Mooch, life gonna be tough on a sistah who can't get no fashion, bling, or expert wig and makeup advice no moah.
Posted by: Will be taking applications & buying love slaves nice things using oil stock dividends after R/R win at September 10, 2012 02:46 PM (kXoT0)
Posted by: SH at September 10, 2012 02:46 PM (gmeXX)
Posted by: JDTAY at September 10, 2012 02:47 PM (a0nis)
Posted by: Jon at September 10, 2012 02:47 PM (/YJYi)
I am so stealing that. In fact, I just did.
Posted by: jwpaine at September 10, 2012 02:47 PM (FUozQ)
96,000 jobs created.
370,000 people gave up looking for a job.
22,000 businesses ceased to exist.
176,000 new food stamp moochers.
32,000 new SSDI approvals.
The country cannot take too many more Obama Augusts. The country knows this and will remove the 0.
Posted by: jukin at September 10, 2012 02:47 PM (5oKRH)
Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 02:47 PM (lEcZh)
I think we're terminally fucked. People want freebies and don't really give a flying fuck that we have a 16 trillion dollar debt because they want what they want and that's all there is to it and fuck you all racists if you don't like it.
Posted by: Dufuq Izthis at September 10, 2012 06:38 PM (zNbHv)
Well, things could already be this bad. In the end this is unavoidable, since even so-called conservatives seem to buy into the idea of paying the trash of humanity to breed like rats. But I'm not sure we're at that stage yet. The stupid is strong, but the ants still outnumber the grasshoppers.
But let's say it goes against us this time. Then, much of our feeling of responsibility is alleviated. If Americans choose 4 more years of Obama, then they deserve what they get, and our job as individuals is simple - suck every drop of blood we can out of this nation and the economy for ourselves, and look out only for ourselves and our kind. F**k the rest of 'em. I will feel no remaining shreds of allegiance to these fools.
Posted by: Reactionary at September 10, 2012 02:47 PM (jfeoD)
Posted by: Gerg = Tard, yeah so? at September 10, 2012 02:48 PM (aHR5E)
Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 02:48 PM (lEcZh)
Posted by: Jon at September 10, 2012 06:47 PM (/YJYi)
Sounds like RAYKON
Posted by: The Jackhole at September 10, 2012 02:48 PM (nTgAI)
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 02:48 PM (r4wIV)
believe there is a statistic that no incumbent has ever won without increasing their electoral college total.
Posted by: SH
FDR 1940 and 1944
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at September 10, 2012 02:49 PM (kdS6q)
Posted by: Average Jon at September 10, 2012 02:49 PM (aHR5E)
Posted by: Jon at September 10, 2012 06:47 PM (/YJYi)
Yes Romney will do well in the debates. The media will say Obama won, but it won't matter if people actually watch..
Posted by: the pink not panicking about one poll formerly known as the hobbit Donna at September 10, 2012 02:49 PM (W2Z3C)
Posted by: ilrndude at September 10, 2012 02:50 PM (aUnng)
Posted by: Jon at September 10, 2012 02:50 PM (t1NLo)
Medved has been flogging his new e-book that discusses the popular vote:
"Among the 24 elected presidents who sought second terms, all 15 who earned back-to-back victories drew more support in bids for re-election than they did in their previous campaigns."
Posted by: Joseph Vissarionovich [/i] [/b] at September 10, 2012 02:51 PM (NRwWP)
***
Cohen?
JOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
Posted by: Reality Drek at September 10, 2012 02:51 PM (aHR5E)
Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 02:51 PM (LRFds)
Posted by: Unemployed since February at September 10, 2012 02:51 PM (06qTP)
There you go. GIGO. 10% more D than R? Absurd to the point of worthlessness. After the landslide wipeout of 2010, the redistricting due to the advantage of Republican electoral success, the increase in GOP membership, and the decrease in Dem membership?
C'mon.
Poll blogging needs to get the heave ho until the second week in October at the earliest.
Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at September 10, 2012 02:51 PM (eHIJJ)
That's the narrative prepared even before the debates begin. Obama could walk on stage pull his pants down and take a steaming crap then lie in it, rubbing it all over his body and they would report it as a big win by him. The only question is how they'll try to spin it.
And that's where the fun comes in, like a drinking game. You probably all remember how they just blew off the outrageous, blatant lies Obama and especially Biden told during the debates. Palin buried Biden so he just started making crap up and nobody called him on it.
That's what we have coming, and it will be fun to watch them work hard to turn it all into a glorious festival of unprecedented genius by the Dear Leader.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 02:52 PM (r4wIV)
Some may not like the swing state tragedy but remember those states are the ones whether you like it or not turn the election. I want Mitt to work Michigan and Penn but the GOTV is the key and you must allocate your resources the best you can. Why waste money on California or New York? I agree I want the battlefield to expand but what states? I looks like Linda McMahon may win Senate Seat in Conn....but could Romney? I doubt it...but possible. Is Minnesota a long shot? could be but again you have to allocate resources...WI is an expansion from 2008 and hopefully Michigan will be as well. Rove just talked about New Poll in New Mexico that has Obama's lead there down to 5 points from 9 or 10 points. It in interesting but in several blue states has anyone else noticed Obama's leads dropping as well? New Jersey down to 6 or 7....not saying in play but that is telling!
CNN I am sure polled New York, Maryland, Washington, Northern Virginia, San Fran, Seattle and Portland.....and throw in Chicago as well...lol!!
Posted by: bluerose75 at September 10, 2012 02:52 PM (HDcKc)
great glad to hear it you can stay home then....see ya Yawn bye bye we're convinced.
I think it's a sock or Gerg, or toldyaso..
Posted by: the pink not panicking about one poll formerly known as the hobbit Donna at September 10, 2012 02:52 PM (W2Z3C)
Posted by: JDTAY at September 10, 2012 02:52 PM (a0nis)
Posted by: kelley in virginia at September 10, 2012 02:52 PM (p3a8+)
I'm paranoid at the ad campaigns.
Obama has "Romney is going to tax the middle class" bullshit ads here.
I see nothing from Romney.
Who makes sure that ads that are paid for actually hit the air. After all, we all know leftists control it all.
Also, Romney's ads need to sayth following. So far not seeing it.
Soyndra/Abound Solar and all the other failed start-ups that were just tax payer money going to democrat cronys and donors Why no ad?
Metnion how Obama is going to tax the middle class. He has to! to pay for his spending projects.
Remind voters of nancy Pelosi. Everyon hates her.
etc...
Posted by: Fresh at September 10, 2012 02:52 PM (O7ksG)
Posted by: Sean Bannion at September 10, 2012 02:53 PM (ZGmwP)
even LV mdoels rely on sample and they are insisting on fucking the sample.
Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 02:53 PM (LRFds)
Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 02:53 PM (lEcZh)
Yeah I only wish. I hate polls. Hate them. They are modern day astrology, they're looking at tea leaves and lines on your hand and trying to predict the future and people get all bent out of shape staring at them. What does it mean? WE'RE ALL DOOMED!!1!!!!1!
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 02:53 PM (r4wIV)
Posted by: ThePrimordialOrderedPair at September 10, 2012 02:54 PM (X3lox)
"Why Romney wins Wisconsin":
1. The addition of Paul Ryan. Wisconsinites are very loyal to and proud of their state. They are proud of Paul Ryan, that he is considered the smartest man in government.
2. Wisconsin is open to the message of fiscal reform. We were told that the sky was going to fall because of Scott Walker's reforms, and lo and behold they did not fall.
3. 2000 and 2004 Presidential elections, while they went Dem, were pretty much dead heats and the elecorate has moved right.
4. Momentum. Republicans in this state are on a long and successful roll. We are getting very used to winning and are mobilized to do so again.
Posted by: mama winger in paul ryan's district at September 10, 2012 02:54 PM (P6QsQ)
Posted by: LizLem at September 10, 2012 02:54 PM (8wqqE)
Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 02:54 PM (LRFds)
Posted by: Jon at September 10, 2012 02:54 PM (/YJYi)
***
Finally somebody gets it. Mr. Axelrod will be so happy!
Posted by: Gerg = Tard, yeah so? at September 10, 2012 02:55 PM (aHR5E)
I mean, the sheer number of sources ALL saying the same thing over the weekend was and remains amazing.
Qui bono?
One frickin' poll, trading of the old reputation that is Gallup and you'd think it was November 8, 2012.
A two point bump from the pre-convention standing.
Axlerod has one play: Get your guy in the lead, run in the lead, and you will never, ever, ever get bogged down in specifics or details.
He has to get his guy in the lead.
And the word has gone out.
Qui bono?
Steady. Steady. Patience. Patience. Don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes.
Posted by: RoyalOil at September 10, 2012 02:55 PM (imtbm)
If I were a CNN hack, I would have panicked too and stopped calling independents or including their data too.
Posted by: Burn the Witch at September 10, 2012 02:55 PM (8JpQH)
Ras using the same method has swings +1 Choom trending back towards Romney...
you have another hypothesis?
Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 02:55 PM (LRFds)
Posted by: Sean Bannion at September 10, 2012 02:55 PM (ZGmwP)
Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 02:56 PM (lEcZh)
Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 02:56 PM (lEcZh)
Posted by: Walter Freeman at September 10, 2012 02:56 PM (kqGWM)
Ras is within its normal cycle sorta has Choom +1 on normal +2-4 phase for the weekend at +5 but the swing state model is +1Choom trending back to R....
odd shit....
and 37 fucking indys?
"Really"?
Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 02:57 PM (LRFds)
Romney needs to speak right into the camera and say something awesome. There is so much.
Remind voters (with atcual footage) about Obmaa's promise that his failure would mean a "one term proposition".
Remind voters that Obama promised to "cut the deficit in half."
IN HALF!
Get with the program Romney.
Posted by: Fresh at September 10, 2012 02:57 PM (O7ksG)
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 02:57 PM (r4wIV)
He'll do that by saying it's Bushes fault. I hope Romney is ready with an answer for that...
Posted by: the pink not panicking about one poll formerly known as the hobbit Donna at September 10, 2012 02:57 PM (W2Z3C)
Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 02:57 PM (LRFds)
Posted by: steevy at September 10, 2012 02:57 PM (6o4Fb)
Posted by: Wyatt's Torch at September 10, 2012 02:57 PM (zxrQh)
Kevin in ABQ: "...DRI is D+9.6. D/R/I percentages are 44/34/21."
Kevin which poll is that a breakdown of CNN? Again just ridiculous.
Posted by: bluerose75 at September 10, 2012 02:57 PM (HDcKc)
Posted by: arcangel at September 10, 2012 02:58 PM (/NCJW)
hush we are supposed to be quivering with fear because every dead person in NA trends D with amazing regularity
Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 02:58 PM (LRFds)
I think R2 can take Michigan, Oregon, and yes Washington.
Posted by: jukin at September 10, 2012 02:58 PM (5oKRH)
Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 02:59 PM (lEcZh)
---
Also every brain DEAD person.
Posted by: mediumheadboy at September 10, 2012 02:59 PM (aHR5E)
Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 03:00 PM (LRFds)
You rang?
Posted by: JournoList 2.0 at September 10, 2012 03:00 PM (eHIJJ)
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 03:00 PM (r4wIV)
Romney better have this answer down for the debates.
Answer to each and every question about abortion and rape.
"MOST TAX PAYERS DO NOT WANT TO PAY FOR ABORTION."
and end it. no more. that's it. next question.
Posted by: Fresh at September 10, 2012 03:00 PM (O7ksG)
Posted by: drawandstrike at September 10, 2012 03:00 PM (uVLJc)
Posted by: Daybrother at September 10, 2012 03:01 PM (1FkrP)
"Gore doesn't just have the lead. On each underlying factor, he has the upside as well."
So Romney, who has the upside on underlying factors, is in a similar position to Gore in 2000? And even Gore was at least in the lead with polling with that upside, and still lost?
I think this more than anything else displayed on the site at this moment hurt my optimism for Romney's chances.
Posted by: SOCR at September 10, 2012 03:01 PM (RTNve)
It's almost like they coordinated it or something. But I'm sure they wouldn't do that. I mean, they didn't do it after the Romney bump, so I have to assume this duplicated and triplicated message now is just one of those crazy flukes.
Posted by: mama winger in paul ryan's district at September 10, 2012 03:01 PM (P6QsQ)
Sven...that is right....It is interesting because the Swing State Poll is the most important...and Obama only received a ONE POINT bounce after all the hoopla of Bill Clinton and the DNC. Yet many people are not looking at it. This is the poll that matters.
46/45 Obama in 11 swing states? that is terrible for Obama after the BIG DNC....notice that is not talked about on FOX, NBC, ABC, CBS, CNN or any others....just that top line number....
Brett Baier is doing what would be expected remember he was off on the weekend....they are all carrying the narrative....LOL!! So predictable....
Posted by: bluerose75 at September 10, 2012 03:01 PM (HDcKc)
I particularly like their push polling on foeign policy this last round, "who is more responsible for the death of OBL Choom or Mitt?"
um....how about ST6?
Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 03:02 PM (LRFds)
Posted by: Sean Bannion at September 10, 2012 03:02 PM (ZGmwP)
Isn't Santa-Fe like the Berkeley of the high desert? He shouldn't need to spend a dime to take NM.
Posted by: @PurpAv at September 10, 2012 03:02 PM (uKnGb)
& mama winger: you go girl. i'm with you all the way!
Posted by: kelley in virginia at September 10, 2012 03:03 PM (p3a8+)
Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 03:03 PM (lEcZh)
Posted by: bluerose75 at September 10, 2012 03:04 PM (HDcKc)
Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 03:04 PM (LRFds)
I mean, what the heck??
Posted by: mama winger in paul ryan's district at September 10, 2012 03:05 PM (P6QsQ)
nah no no he just like eneteraining the Enchanted folk...
like i said last month watch what he does not he says or the media
Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 03:05 PM (LRFds)
& all you from Red States (& any refugees from Blue States) please visit a relative, friend or fellow Moron in swing state to start helping out.
Posted by: kelley in virginia at September 10, 2012 03:05 PM (p3a8+)
Posted by: countdracula at September 10, 2012 03:06 PM (/5cf7)
quite...
they are in mad dash mode...
I think Mitt may just be seeing how batshit crazy they are going to go
Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 03:06 PM (LRFds)
The Soviets won the cold war on the psyops/propaganda front. They got us to destroy ourselves. Had they lasted long enough to enjoy the win, it would have been glorious with medals for everyone involved in the effort.
Posted by: @PurpAv at September 10, 2012 03:06 PM (uKnGb)
Posted by: Retired Buckeye Cop at September 10, 2012 03:06 PM (xFgmp)
Ras also has Choom up one trending down in swings...
but do go on sparky...
MATH! motherfucker
Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 03:06 PM (LRFds)
Very cool. Twitter has been coopted by conservatives and libertarians, it looks like; I don't know if Tumblr will ever be the same way, it's like 85% rabid lib, but there are a bunch of us trying to light candles to stave off the darkness over there. If any of you join let me know, I'd love to follow you and see some sense knocked into people.Posted by: LizLem at September 10, 2012 03:07 PM (8wqqE)
Their convention was a disaster, August's job report a disaster, the economy is a disaster. The democrat faithful know this. The Obamabots do not. All this is to keep sane democrats in the fold and voting D.
It will not work.
Posted by: jukin at September 10, 2012 03:07 PM (5oKRH)
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at September 10, 2012 03:07 PM (d0Tfm)
Posted by: bluerose75 at September 10, 2012 03:07 PM (HDcKc)
Posted by: countsuckula (New Gerg) at September 10, 2012 03:07 PM (aHR5E)
I think R2 can take Michigan, Oregon, and yes Washington.
Posted by: jukin
The Republicans haven't won Michigan since 1988. Oregon or Washington since 1984.
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at September 10, 2012 03:08 PM (kdS6q)
You ain't seen nothing yet....if Helicopter Ben launches QE3 and prices go up as they must Romney says "I am auditing the Fed on entry into office but I need a GOP house and senate to do it" and watch the fun.
Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 03:08 PM (LRFds)
Posted by: Kevin in ABQ at September 10, 2012 03:08 PM (XrGnJ)
Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 03:08 PM (lEcZh)
Posted by: countdraculasuckscockbychoice at September 10, 2012 03:09 PM (/YJYi)
Right, he got a temporary bounce after the convention, as was expected. I think you have the poll too high though, I saw 2 points from Rasmussen, not 5.
It won't last. GOP +1 is probably the most reasonable spread though, if not a few more.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 03:09 PM (r4wIV)
it all breaks down to zones that are called, I also notice you omit that Choom has a +1 in swingers polling....
and trending down....
keep on plugging buddy
Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 03:10 PM (LRFds)
As for the polls, who is going to say, "I'm a racist and will not vote for Obama?" People lie to polls.
There is a reason voting is done anonymously.
Clinton = Kennedy (couldn't keep pants zipped)
Bush = Nixon (press hated both)
Obama = Carter (malaise, said with an effete southern accent)
So what does that leave us with....
Romney = Reagan
/saying prayers...
Posted by: shibumi at September 10, 2012 03:10 PM (z63Tr)
It's almost like they coordinated it or something. But I'm sure they wouldn't do that. I mean, they didn't do it after the Romney bump, so I have to assume this duplicated and triplicated message now is just one of those crazy flukes.
Posted by: mama winger in paul ryan's district at September 10, 2012 07:01 PM (P6QsQ)
Not enough blood in the water yet. The media needs more before they will begin feeding. They are trying to push it off.
Posted by: The Jackhole at September 10, 2012 03:11 PM (nTgAI)
Posted by: countsuckula (New Gerg) at September 10, 2012 03:11 PM (aHR5E)
Geez, I'm glad your daytime is our night-time. I go to sleep and miss all the nervous whinging and angsting.....
Ras and Gallup look to have peaked at O+5 and O's favourables have started receeding from their "OMFG +10!!" peak. So this is it folks, the best it's gonna get for Obama.
The swing state polls aren't showing anywhere near the same bounce as the national polls. Even PPP, throwing everything into Ohio and NC, couldn't generate a bounce....
Romney is still leading among Indies and Undecideds.
So, wow, whoopee doo. Obama got a, what, 4-5% bounce nationally, mostly in his own safe states, that looks like it's petering out after less than a week, and which even Dems admit was due to Clinton anyway.
I can live with that.
Posted by: AussieMarcus at September 10, 2012 03:11 PM (EwxYH)
Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 03:12 PM (lEcZh)
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 03:12 PM (r4wIV)
Posted by: IdowhatIwant at September 10, 2012 03:12 PM (a4CUi)
Posted by: LizLem at September 10, 2012 03:12 PM (8wqqE)
The Soviets won the cold war on the psyops/propaganda front. They got us to destroy ourselves. Had they lasted long enough to enjoy the win, it would have been glorious with medals for everyone involved in the effort.
A big part of that win was getting the useful idiots here to deny what they said openly that they would do to us. Everbody should take a look at their stated goals (read into the Congresional Record in'64) and take a look around today to see just how much of it was accomplished.
But have a good stiff drink first.
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at September 10, 2012 03:13 PM (d0Tfm)
Count...Get a New Cereal....His bounce dropped from 3 to 1 on Ras and will taper off the weekend now and that the DNC is over....check Thursday!
Conveniently you must be blind because the same release has the SWING STATE POLL for today: Obama gained one point Count...one point...that is after all the DNC and your magical bounce! He started before the conventionn at 45 percent on the Ras Swing State Poll.....today he is at 46...so save me the rubbish with the other polls...Swing States are where it is at!! And your man picked up one point and over the weekend...and all the polls you mention oversampled Dems and were on the weekend just after the DNC....even Ras undersamples conservatives on weekends Count....go check his weekend history...Obama gains Sat-Mon....
Posted by: bluerose75 at September 10, 2012 03:13 PM (HDcKc)
Michigan now has a Republican governor.
Plus both upper and lower houses are controlled by the Republicans here.
Just saying.
Posted by: shibumi at September 10, 2012 03:14 PM (z63Tr)
if you mean is there any tracking showing the partisan split D+4...no none at all Ras is the only one to track it and release the method and they say R+4...
"we'll see"
2010 was D+2 tops
=============
2008, every single thing was in the Dems favor, and they pulled a +8. I mean, for hell's sake, the financial crisis, McCain, historic black president, 8 years of non-stop Bush/GOP bashing, outspent the GOP by how many tens of millions and on and on. And the best they could pull was a +8.
And yet. That's the one they think is the "normal." Even though 2010 was R+2. What? In 4 years of the JEF, they've won one, two special elections? Low-turnout specials that strongly favor the Dems and they have won nothing since then?
Recall, as Baron (I believe) says: Every Presidential Election has tracked within 2% of the previous midterm. We won 2010 by, how much?
Posted by: RoyalOil at September 10, 2012 03:14 PM (imtbm)
Ras has obama up 5 over romney and at the 50% mark.
The democrat lie machine is powerful. I gues no one cares about he debt or that we will face a full on recession with 4 more years of obozo.
Posted by: Fresh at September 10, 2012 03:14 PM (O7ksG)
POOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLLS!!!1!1!11!1!11!1!11!!!1!!111!1!1!1!1!1!11!
Posted by: countsuckula (New Gerg) at September 10, 2012 03:15 PM (aHR5E)
Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 03:15 PM (lEcZh)
Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular! With Full Stomping Power! at September 10, 2012 03:16 PM (0q2P7)
The VP debate, Ace, should be live blogged. Unless they have put the same chip in Joe Bidenopoulous' noggin with pre-screened questions and answers, Ryan will wipe the floor with him while looking boyish. I guess ole Joe will trump that he has national security experience, which has served them so well these last four years. Otherwise all I imagine is a Halloween set of false teeth chattering at the podium.
Posted by: ChristyBlinky, unbanned , ready to get this done at September 10, 2012 03:18 PM (baL2B)
That's the wildly optimistic best of the best case scenarios. Reality is more like collapse, destruction, and dissolution of the nation. The collapse of the Soviet Union will look quick and tidy by comparison.
Posted by: @PurpAv at September 10, 2012 03:18 PM (uKnGb)
Posted by: JBS at September 10, 2012 03:18 PM (lZE/o)
Posted by: mediumheadboy at September 10, 2012 03:18 PM (aHR5E)
Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 03:18 PM (lEcZh)
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 03:18 PM (r4wIV)
Posted by: kelley in virginia at September 10, 2012 03:19 PM (p3a8+)
Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 03:20 PM (lEcZh)
Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 03:20 PM (LRFds)
But these things swing "hard" at the very end for the economic reality on the ground. That's how it's been in every election in my lifetime. If the economy is good, they get reelected, if it's bad, they're tossed on the street, usually by a wide margin, and this is the worst economy I've seen in my lifetime.
But for those that think the election is truly over, my next question is, what do you think the margin will be? If Obama wins, it would truly have to be a "skin of his teeth" win, like something we experienced in 2000 where it comes down to a single state.
Posted by: Victor at September 10, 2012 03:20 PM (0kf1G)
Exactly, that's how the public became sure the Iraq war was a huge quagmire mistake and Afghanistan cannot ever be won. But it took years to pound it into people's brains, and the press doesn't have years.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 03:20 PM (r4wIV)
Posted by: The Aftermath of naturalfake going Full Retard Strength Early at September 10, 2012 03:21 PM (G9qZk)
oh
Posted by: kelley in virginia at September 10, 2012 03:21 PM (p3a8+)
Posted by: IdowhatIwant at September 10, 2012 03:22 PM (a4CUi)
cause Barky already knows every damn thing.
he killed OBL after all
Posted by: kelley in virginia at September 10, 2012 03:23 PM (p3a8+)
Posted by: kelley in virginia at September 10, 2012 03:23 PM (p3a8+)
Now Democrats always win.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 03:23 PM (r4wIV)
@274
Wasn't Oregon like 10,000 votes away from flipping to Bush in 2000 or 2004?
It (and Michigan) would fall before Washington state, surely?
Posted by: AussieMarcus at September 10, 2012 03:24 PM (EwxYH)
....if Helicopter Ben launches QE3 and prices go up
Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 07:08 PM (LRFds)
Gold spot will move to $2200-2400/oz?
Posted by: Dr Fish, TDY to SAT for ill mom at September 10, 2012 03:28 PM (ndqJC)
Exactly, we have been beaten into submission about saying we do not like a particular Black person. Jeez, even when Mike Tyson was being convicted of rape and battery of a nice Black girl, people still went around yammering, "I like Mike!"
I think people are saying out loud, "Oh yes, the Obamas are lovely people. Look at those two darling daughters!"
What they are thinking is, "I lost my job, my house, my 401(k), and that big, ugly, angry bitch gets to sashay around in designer clothes while sending those brats to the most exclusive and private school in DC? Hell, my wife shops for all of us at Good Will and I can't even take my kids to MickeyD's. I am sick of the Obamas."
Posted by: Will be taking applications & buying love slaves nice things using oil stock dividends after R/R win at September 10, 2012 03:30 PM (kXoT0)
Posted by: IdowhatIwant at September 10, 2012 03:32 PM (a4CUi)
Posted by: Dave S. at September 10, 2012 03:33 PM (tWrwm)
I agree to a certain extent about the Bradley Effect, but I also heard the same thing in 2008.
Then again, Gallup's last poll had Obama up by something like 11 points in 2008 over McCain.
Posted by: Victor at September 10, 2012 03:33 PM (0kf1G)
I'm on Tumblr. Mostly for art stuff. I didn't realize there was a growing political voice starting up there. I'd be happy to follow you. I'm cowboyannie on Tumblr.
Posted by: mama winger in paul ryan's district at September 10, 2012 03:37 PM (P6QsQ)
as well as swelling the greater Portland area with California leftards like a bloated tick.
Wasn't Portland always pretty liberal? I had the impression it was a rainier version of Berkeley.
The question is where the leftards here in CA came from. They're not home-grown; they mostly came from liberal hellholes that they helped to create, then fled.
A liberal friend of mine, on hearing that we were thinking of fleeing from the People's Republic to AZ, said he and his wife were thinking of doing the same thing, which pissed me off. Why should he leave? The weather is still great, and all the liberal shit he voted for has come to pass, but now he doesn't want to live it. And, of course, once he moves somewhere else, he'll voted for retarded liberal shit there, and fuck THAT place up.
Posted by: Jay Guevara at September 10, 2012 03:37 PM (oX7vY)
Zero hedge says the stock market realized it has already baked QE3 into the cake....
"we'll see"
Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 03:41 PM (LRFds)
Oh, and another reason I don't believe these numbers is because of the wins we've had ever since 11/08. We won the governorships in VA and NJ in '09, we rocked in '10, we won again in WI just this past June. The sentiment that started in '09 is still alive and well now. Nothing has changed for the better for Dems, in fact, things have gotten worse (joblessness, economy).
We, meaning the AMERICAN people are not that in love with getting freebies. If we were, We wouldn't have won the elections above and O would've enjoyed 50+% all this time. He's been underwater in approval for months before all of a sudden he isn't anymore.
I call BS. But, we need to play like they're real in order to stop people from believing these bogus polls.
Posted by: Aslan's Girl at September 10, 2012 03:45 PM (KL49F)
Posted by: conservativechick at September 10, 2012 03:47 PM (8GQ/G)
Posted by: IdowhatIwant at September 10, 2012 03:48 PM (a4CUi)
Posted by: IdowhatIwant at September 10, 2012 03:51 PM (a4CUi)
Posted by: edj at September 10, 2012 03:52 PM (+QKfp)
The real problem, though, is that every fucking leftard on the planet, not kidding, always viewed CA as their dream-land. It's been attracting leftards like a magnet since the sixties.
Yep. It infuriates me, too.
They move in with idiotic utopian world-views, stick around long enough to wreck the place and then leave for greener pastures. I hate them all. With the fire of a thousands suns.
You like them compared to me. They moved here, fucked up my beloved California, and now are starting to move to the few places that they haven't fucked up yet.
It wouldn't be so bad if they moved, but the problem is that once they've trashed a place, it never recovers.
Posted by: Jay Guevara at September 10, 2012 03:54 PM (oX7vY)
Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 03:54 PM (lEcZh)
Posted by: Jay Guevara at September 10, 2012 03:56 PM (oX7vY)
Posted by: edj at September 10, 2012 03:56 PM (+QKfp)
Posted by: wynfred at September 10, 2012 03:57 PM (xqdQZ)
Posted by: rabidfox at September 10, 2012 03:57 PM (5sEuZ)
But there aren't any more electoral college votes to be squeezed out of California.
Don't rub it in.
Posted by: Jay Guevara at September 10, 2012 03:58 PM (oX7vY)
Posted by: JBS at September 10, 2012 03:58 PM (lZE/o)
Yielded a result of 53 percent.
Folks, we are going to lick these people out of their boots.
Posted by: LTC Graham at September 10, 2012 03:59 PM (SwEjg)
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 04:05 PM (r4wIV)
Me, myself, and I.
I don't care what people think of my reasons. It could be that annoying mole on his greenish face. It could be the way he jogs, all stiff-wristed up to the podium and steps of Air Force One I think, but am not sure, his message is this: I have energy! I am vibrant! In reality it emphasizes his spaz). It could be the way The Won does a fake salute to Marines. It could be the way Navy SEALS have been treated. It could be his constant yapping about killing Bin Laden. It could be his gummy grin, or his ssssszzzzz speech impediment. It could be his love of iReggie. It could be due to the flatworm eating what is left of his drug-addled brain. It could be his dissing of Jews. It could be his fake boots after the oil spill, or his bowing, or his ham-handed wife pawing at Queen Elizabeth. It could be his shoes on the Resolute desk. It could be due to him being pigeon-toed and having smoker's breath and stinky feet (per his "wife"). It could be due to his stupid books and rampant terminal narcissism. I just don't like him or his socialism. If that makes me racist, then too bad. I will not repent. Resist me much.
Posted by: ChristyBlinky, unbanned , ready to get this done at September 10, 2012 04:08 PM (baL2B)
You wouldn't start selling Christmas trees in October, would you? I could be wrong, but I suspect Romney will jab and duck for another few weeks, and after the first debate, the heavy artillery comes out.
oh, and just noticed this on Gateway Pundit:
A Maryland Democratic candidate quit her congressional race Monday after her own party told state officials that she had committed fraud by voting in both Maryland and Florida in recent elections.
(I am shocked...)
Posted by: mallfly at September 10, 2012 04:10 PM (bJm7W)
That's okay they'll just replace her with someone else no matter what the law says.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 04:14 PM (r4wIV)
uuuuuuh...make what now?
Posted by: Chariots of Toast at September 10, 2012 04:17 PM (eNURf)
60 percent of people do not trust obumbles on the economy.
And that is how this stoopid election is going to end.
Romney wins with 56-58 percent, and Obumbles is gone.
Posted by: Courtesy Flush at September 10, 2012 04:28 PM (9mDAJ)
Try not to cite Bush Cheney 2000 as ANYTHING to be fucking proud of. Karl Rove fucked that camel, not any Reagan Conservative. Karl stopped polling ten days before the election and sent millions of dollars to California in a complete waste of fucking time that should have gone to Florida. I lived in Broward County at that time, and we didn't get a fucking dime from National until late September.
Junior must have thought that Baby Brother could just pull his home state out of his ass.
It's worth noting that the same Bushtard clowns that screwed up Florida and gave us the Recount Hell also gave us Meg Whitman's 175 million dollar loss to Jerry Brown, professional zombie, and are about ready to drive Mitt Romney into private life.
Posted by: section9 at September 10, 2012 04:36 PM (CUoon)
Posted by: Sgt. York at September 10, 2012 05:00 PM (Bm+GQ)
Posted by: Mikey NTH - winding all down before jammie time at September 10, 2012 05:00 PM (gmoEG)
Posted by: Sgt. York at September 10, 2012 05:01 PM (Bm+GQ)
Laura Ingraham nails it:
http://bit.ly/P8IP9M
Posted by: rukiddingme? at September 10, 2012 05:11 PM (MbeEN)
Posted by: Donna V. at September 10, 2012 05:18 PM (9lzYO)
319
Agree. Bush v. Gore doesn't fill me with confidence.
There is a demographic trend here. The elephant in the room that is reluctantly mentioned, but true nonetheless. It is what it is. Republicans have to get in there with a majority in both houses and show their stuff, which is what they tragically didn't do under Bush.
Otherwise, game over.
Posted by: Reggie1971 at September 10, 2012 05:55 PM (Qbfba)
Posted by: runner at September 10, 2012 06:26 PM (WR5xI)
Posted by: MrX at September 10, 2012 06:41 PM (ZsAO3)
Posted by: Hard Right at September 10, 2012 07:45 PM (VyDjT)
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Posted by: J.J. Sefton at September 10, 2012 02:09 PM (+tqYo)