October 11, 2012
— Ace Winning Hispanics 46-44?
The survey conducted this week found 51 percent of likely Florida voters supporting Romney, 44 percent backing Obama and 4 percent undecided. That's a major shift from a month ago when the same poll showed Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent — and a direct result of what Obama himself called a "bad night" at the first debate.The debate prompted 5 percent of previously undecided voters and 2 percent of Obama backers to move to Romney. Another 2 percent of Obama supporters said they are now undecided because of the debate.
Okay, Florida is starting to look okay. But Florida has always been among the easiest of the states we need to flip. Hopefully this poll will be confirmed by others.
Virginia and Ohio, Virginia and Ohio.
Via @fixaaron and @johnekdahl
W.R. Meade: It's Not About Ideology. From Meade, excerpting "The Monkey Cage" blog.
The Monkey Cage cites a plot from YouGov, in which people note their own ideological leanings, and their perception of Romney's and Obama's leanings. Turns out, people rate themselves (in aggregate) closer to Romney than Obama.
So:
Romney may not have needed this pivot to the center anyway. Even though he is perceived as more conservative than the average voter—and increasingly so—he is still closer to the average voter than is Obama. This belies the notion that Romney’s conservative positions in the primary have damaged him in the general election. Romney’s struggles up until his debate win were not about ideology. And if this debate has a long-term effect on the race, it may not involve making voters see him as more moderate. In fact, although Romney’s embrace of conservatism has attracted more commentary, Obama’s perceived liberalism could prove the bigger liability in November.
Meade concludes:
Romney didnÂ’t shift ideologically; he passed a threshold test [of gravitas and Presidential mien.]
Yeah, I forget who was saying this, but someone was making the case that one of these guys, Ryan or Romney, finally has to brand Obama as a Big-L Liberal.
Posted by: Ace at
02:10 PM
| Comments (171)
Post contains 348 words, total size 3 kb.
Funny huh.
Posted by: momma at October 11, 2012 02:12 PM (fKyrY)
Posted by: steevy at October 11, 2012 02:13 PM (6o4Fb)
7 points is stretching it a little I think.
Definitely up there, as even D>2008 polls can only get Obama a point or two ahead. But I'd think more 3-4% at the moment, not quite 7.
Any breakdowns on this poll?
Posted by: AussieMarcus at October 11, 2012 02:14 PM (RstsB)
Posted by: Matt at October 11, 2012 02:14 PM (0PUve)
Posted by: wooga at October 11, 2012 02:14 PM (vjyZP)
>>Okay, Florida is starting to look okay.
Just checked the map and google earth. Florida still looks like a limp dick. No change.
Posted by: garrett at October 11, 2012 02:15 PM (aCBaG)
Posted by: ChristyBlinky, unbanned, ready to get this done at October 11, 2012 02:16 PM (baL2B)
I don't know. I've driven through the state a lot the past four years. Out of habit, I try to pull into 'corporate centers' where there used to be jobs, and cars, and no signs. Now I see signs advertising a gazillion square feet available, no cars, and probably no jobs.
Prime real estate and opportunity for deficit/deficient Democrats, but I hope the people in the state wise up.
Posted by: Schrödinger's cat at October 11, 2012 02:16 PM (feFL6)
Posted by: angler at October 11, 2012 02:16 PM (SwjAj)
Those Cuban-Americans should be careful. If they don't vote the right way, the political class will take away their status of Aggrieved Minority.
Posted by: dan-O at October 11, 2012 02:16 PM (sWycd)
Posted by: California at October 11, 2012 02:18 PM (wAQA5)
---------
Yep. Tax and Spend Liberal, weak on defense. Same as its always been.
Posted by: mama winger in paul ryan's district at October 11, 2012 02:18 PM (P6QsQ)
Posted by: Matt at October 11, 2012 02:19 PM (0PUve)
Posted by: 56 and loving RR at October 11, 2012 02:19 PM (9zugO)
Posted by: Tami at October 11, 2012 02:19 PM (X6akg)
Posted by: The Mitt at October 11, 2012 02:19 PM (R18D0)
Anyone going to see Romney/Ryan in Lancaster, OH tomorrow? My back doctor, my family doctor, my allergist and my internal medicine guy all are.
Funny huh.
-------
I'll be there.
As to the poll, winnig hispanics? Yea.....that ones out there.
Posted by: Rich at October 11, 2012 02:19 PM (pnHKr)
I just don't see VA as a problem. Usually NoVa is the epicenter of libtardedness for the state. Not this year. At least not that anyone is willing to say publicly.
Posted by: pep at October 11, 2012 02:20 PM (6TB1Z)
Posted by: Paul Ryan at October 11, 2012 02:20 PM (FcR7P)
---
What's funny is Obama will make "Liberal" an epithet again.
Posted by: Methos at October 11, 2012 02:20 PM (6LvlL)
Or as we call it, Mr. Toad's Wild Ride.
Posted by: pep at October 11, 2012 02:22 PM (6TB1Z)
Posted by: marinemom at October 11, 2012 02:22 PM (OKtOV)
I live in Florida and have been working the state...I KNOW IT IS TRUE!!
Suffolk Pollster pulls out of Florida, Virginia and North Carolina because their polling up to this week shows Obama will not win any of those three....he is at 47/48 percent and cannot climb...
NewsmaxZogby today...Ohio Poll...848 LV...Obama's lead down from 9 to 1 point...the 9 points before the debate....now it is 45/44 after the debate...Zogby finds like ARG (48/47 Romney) and NBC Columbus(45/44 Obama...Indies are breaking big for Romney. Oh and ARG used a PLUS 8 Dem sample and NBC Columbus did as well...Anyone believe Obama will have plus 8 like in 2008? in 2010 it was Plus 1 Repub?
Ace whined about CNN...hey Duece go look at CNN's partisan split from their Ohio poll out yesterday and then MAN UP.
Same with that NBC/Marist with PLUS 11 DEM SAMPLE....SO bad the POLLSTER even noted how SKEWED the sample was THEMSELVES in the Press Release...and with 11 Dem Sample...Obama up only 5...Also go check the female to male breakdown of the NBC Ohio Poll...increased females by 3 percent over 2008 and 2010...also they are keeping the BLACK VOTE at 14 percent...SORRY ACE there is no way Blacks will be a record number 14 like 2008. Blacks historically are 10-11 percent....So NBC in OHIO ridiculously oversampled Dems, women, blacks and youth (18 percent from 2008.....when historically about 12 percent). And Obama's lead was cut in half!!...LOL!!
Posted by: bluerose75 at October 11, 2012 02:22 PM (HDcKc)
Posted by: BitterClingy&Buried at October 11, 2012 02:22 PM (QQcJv)
===
Over the course of his career, Joe Biden has always said exactly what he means, and people know they can count on the Vice President to be straight with them.
You can't say the same about Paul Ryan.
Out on the campaign trail, Ryan has followed Mitt Romney's lead -- making a habit of misrepresenting or flat-out denying his unpopular, extreme positions, while distorting President Obama's record. Both Romney and Ryan know that if they're honest with the American people about their proposals and their records, it'll hurt their chances to win the election.
===
I guess she ain't getting fired... so long as she stays on message.
Posted by: mallfly at October 11, 2012 02:22 PM (bJm7W)
Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 11, 2012 02:22 PM (GEICT)
Posted by: steevy
That makes the Florida panhandle the male bag - after a cold swim.
Posted by: Dang© at October 11, 2012 02:23 PM (R18D0)
I've been working as a poll observer during early voting here in Franklin county Ohio. Tuesday night was the Obama rally at OSU. Poll workers were told to expect 2-3,000 people, and that there would likely still be a line out the door at 9pm when they closed. Tuesday was the last day of registration and the 'golden week' where you can register/vote same day.
10 buses arrived. 50-60 max capacity. One of the sheriff's there on duty told me one of them was only half full. That means they didn't even break 600. From an Obama rally. On OSU campus.
Let that sink in a minute.
By 8:30, you could roll tumbleweeds down the aisles it was so dead in there. Would expect that on any other night, but not THAT night.
Posted by: tdpwells at October 11, 2012 02:23 PM (7vA7k)
Posted by: BitterClingy&Buried at October 11, 2012 02:23 PM (QQcJv)
Posted by: Joe Biden, VP... No, really, the VP at October 11, 2012 02:24 PM (eHIJJ)
Oh, clik the nik for a new poll showing Romney taking the lead amongst eveel Joooooos. (Not kidding).
Posted by: eureka! at October 11, 2012 02:24 PM (cTjRR)
Posted by: Adam at October 11, 2012 02:24 PM (/YJYi)
Posted by: marinemom at October 11, 2012 02:25 PM (OKtOV)
Posted by: t-bird at October 11, 2012 02:25 PM (FcR7P)
Posted by: joeindc44 found the last comment to be vile, particularly vile at October 11, 2012 02:25 PM (QxSug)
the course of his career, Joe Biden has always said exactly what he
means.
So did Pol Pot. Your point?
Posted by: pep at October 11, 2012 02:25 PM (6TB1Z)
Posted by: 56 and loving RR at October 11, 2012 02:25 PM (9zugO)
Virginia is supposedly looking pretty good as well (Suffolk declared they are no longer going to bother to poll VA). I can tell you that in Alexandria, VA, which went 72% for Obama in 2008, GOP signs and bumper stickers are even with dem ones and possibly outnumber them. Not that Romney will win here but it'll be well into the 30's, which bodes well statewide.
Ohio scares me though ...
Posted by: buzz at October 11, 2012 02:26 PM (i27M5)
Posted by: Beto at October 11, 2012 02:26 PM (BAnPT)
Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at October 11, 2012 02:26 PM (UTq/I)
Why is Connie Mack losing so badly there then? RCP average is multiple points in favor of Nelson. What is up with that?
Posted by: dan-O at October 11, 2012 02:26 PM (sWycd)
Posted by: yes at October 11, 2012 02:27 PM (LpQbZ)
Oh, who am I kidding. After Biden totally demolishes Ryan and shows him to be a doddering ninny, FL will be back up for grabs.
Why yesh, Occifer, I did have a few drinkypoos earlier today.
Posted by: GnuBreed at October 11, 2012 02:27 PM (ccXZP)
We have to win by over 2% here to overcome the level of fraud.
Posted by: mama winger in paul ryan's district at October 11, 2012 02:27 PM (P6QsQ)
Posted by: BitterClingy&Buried at October 11, 2012 02:27 PM (QQcJv)
Posted by: MidGeorgian at October 11, 2012 02:27 PM (qBGUl)
Not really that far out there. Cuban-Amerians have always voted differently from other hispanics.
--------
But can someone point to a time when a Republican Presidential candidate has actually won hispanics? Even if you limit it to just Floridian hispanics? If so, I'll eat my words.
Posted by: Rich at October 11, 2012 02:28 PM (pnHKr)
Posted by: marinemom at October 11, 2012 02:28 PM (OKtOV)
Posted by: t-bird at October 11, 2012 02:28 PM (FcR7P)
Posted by: BitterClingy&Buried at October 11, 2012 02:28 PM (QQcJv)
Posted by: CAC at October 11, 2012 02:28 PM (j8xN0)
Posted by: joeindc44 found the last comment to be vile, particularly vile at October 11, 2012 02:28 PM (QxSug)
Michigan plates?
Posted by: t-bird at October 11, 2012 06:25 PM (FcR7P)
Haha, no. And I checked. May or may not have written down plate numbers because they may or may not be verified at a future date to determine if they are taxpayer funded.
Posted by: tdpwells at October 11, 2012 02:29 PM (7vA7k)
Posted by: California at October 11, 2012 06:18 PM (wAQA5)
Obama is polling -10 from his 2008 numbers in California... that's pretty big
Posted by: The Jackhole at October 11, 2012 02:29 PM (nTgAI)
Posted by: joeindc44 found the last comment to be vile, particularly vile at October 11, 2012 02:29 PM (QxSug)
Posted by: jakeman at October 11, 2012 02:29 PM (96M6e)
Posted by: The Crowd of Maximus Preferencus Cascadius at October 11, 2012 02:29 PM (Gt8ei)
Posted by: HtP at October 11, 2012 02:30 PM (jx2j9)
Posted by: Zombie Donna Summer at October 11, 2012 02:30 PM (i0vBR)
Was out doing door to door last Saturday in the Rosemont neighborhood and I saw more Romney signs than Obama signs. There's even an Alexandria office that has opened in assistance to the mega success of the Arlington HQ office that is doing an incredible job of making contacts.
Posted by: Chris P at October 11, 2012 02:30 PM (LuvqF)
Posted by: joeindc44 found the last comment to be vile, particularly vile at October 11, 2012 02:30 PM (QxSug)
Posted by: Torch-Wielding Villager at October 11, 2012 02:30 PM (sTS/8)
Posted by: 56 and loving RR at October 11, 2012 02:30 PM (9zugO)
Posted by: Matt at October 11, 2012 02:30 PM (0PUve)
And good news for us: we are already outpacing George Bush early voting totals in both Iowa and Ohio at this point in the game!
Posted by: NWConservative at October 11, 2012 02:30 PM (M1gmo)
Posted by: Truman North at October 11, 2012 02:31 PM (j8J0O)
Posted by: mallfly at October 11, 2012 02:31 PM (bJm7W)
Posted by: BitterClingy&Buried at October 11, 2012 02:31 PM (QQcJv)
Posted by: joeindc44 found the last comment to be vile, particularly vile at October 11, 2012 02:31 PM (QxSug)
--
Suffolk stopping 3 swing states a month before the election seems hinky to me. My gut reaction is they know it's swinging towards Romney and don't want the continuous reports about it. No polls, no stories about Romney's increasing domination.
Posted by: Mayday at October 11, 2012 02:31 PM (F3s39)
As for the Hispanics....we locally working with the Romney camp have definitely noticed more and more Hispanics with favorable and positive views of Romney....Romney has run some excellent Spanish Language Ads here and his debate performance commanded alot of respect. Another issue not talked about was that UNIVISION report the other weekend. Some may have forgotten but that report on Fast & Furious angered many here in the Hispanic Community!! As well Romney played three large campaign stops in Florida on Sat and Sun..packing over 13,000 per venue....so over 40,000 came to see him. I attended one of the stops and is was FANTASTIC and packed! You could not move!
As well at his stop over in Port St. Lucie....Allen West joined Romney and the crowd was JAZZED from what some of the local press and workers mentioned.
Romney is doing great here and the Hispanics are indeed warming more and more to him.
Posted by: bluerose75 at October 11, 2012 02:31 PM (HDcKc)
Posted by: jakeman at October 11, 2012 02:32 PM (96M6e)
Posted by: The littl shyning man at October 11, 2012 02:32 PM (PH+2B)
Posted by: DangerGirl (@deadlyestrogen) at October 11, 2012 02:32 PM (GrtrJ)
Posted by: Torch-Wielding Villager at October 11, 2012 06:30 PM (sTS/
Hmmmm ?
Posted by: The Jackhole at October 11, 2012 02:32 PM (nTgAI)
Posted by: Stephanie Cutter at October 11, 2012 02:33 PM (FcR7P)
Posted by: sick to my stomach at October 11, 2012 02:33 PM (LpQbZ)
Posted by: mallfly at October 11, 2012 02:33 PM (bJm7W)
Posted by: Macaroon at October 11, 2012 02:33 PM (bw8pg)
Posted by: joeindc44 found the last comment to be vile, particularly vile at October 11, 2012 02:33 PM (QxSug)
I think that both Romney and Ryan should start calling him Haysoose.
Maybe elongate it a little - Haysooooose.
" 'sup Haysoooooose?"
Posted by: HtP at October 11, 2012 02:33 PM (jx2j9)
Posted by: joeindc44 found the last comment to be vile, particularly vile at October 11, 2012 02:34 PM (QxSug)
--
I'm pretty sure Stephanie Cutter is the same mouthpiece Obama had to bench for awhile in 2008 because she called Hillary a bitch or a monster or a nazi. Don't remember the exact details but he had to shuttle her off somewhere out of media sight for the remainder of the election iirc.
Posted by: Mayday at October 11, 2012 02:34 PM (F3s39)
I want to punch that bitch in the mouth.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 11, 2012 02:34 PM (dX4hn)
I've been saying 40 states for 7 months. So... Listen he fuck up when I talk.
---------
That would be so awesome, but so hard to do. I mean that would mean Mitt would have to either win something like Oregon or New Jersey to do it though.
Posted by: Rich at October 11, 2012 02:34 PM (pnHKr)
Posted by: I lurk, therefore I am at October 11, 2012 02:35 PM (4ramR)
Posted by: tygart at October 11, 2012 02:35 PM (sofSX)
sounds like Greg when he was a boy scout.
Posted by: mallfly at October 11, 2012 02:35 PM (bJm7W)
Posted by: steevy at October 11, 2012 02:35 PM (6o4Fb)
Posted by: jmp; at October 11, 2012 02:35 PM (c+fvr)
Posted by: Obama and Biden at October 11, 2012 02:36 PM (PHb2k)
Posted by: Truman North at October 11, 2012 02:37 PM (j8J0O)
Posted by: ThePrimordialOrderedPair at October 11, 2012 02:37 PM (X3lox)
Posted by: chique d'afrique (the artist formerly known as african chick) at October 11, 2012 02:38 PM (6zgse)
Posted by: IC at October 11, 2012 02:38 PM (a0IVu)
My favorite line about Hillary was from Dennis Miller, when she was running for Senate on the wave of Bill's popularity. "The only reason why Hillary is riding her husband's coattails is because there isn't any room on the front of the garment."
Posted by: angler at October 11, 2012 02:38 PM (SwjAj)
Posted by: Torch-Wielding Villager at October 11, 2012 06:30 PM (sTS/
Gawd, I'm so jealous. Hay FOX, call me K??
Posted by: Sandra Fluke at October 11, 2012 02:38 PM (wAQA5)
Posted by: Weew at October 11, 2012 02:39 PM (R0JuT)
As of two weekends ago, pre-debate, the VA state HQ in Arlington had contacted everyone in Arlington five times. They're getting so many people that they opened a smaller office in Alexandria, and have the Arlington kids going out into McLean and northern precincts of Alexandria. Those precincts should be interesting come election night
Posted by: Chris P at October 11, 2012 02:39 PM (LuvqF)
--
I was mistaken, that was Samantha Power who said Hillary was a monster in 2008, and had to resign from O's campaign.
Posted by: Mayday at October 11, 2012 02:40 PM (F3s39)
Posted by: Jean at October 11, 2012 02:40 PM (u5ozF)
---------
That would be so awesome, but so hard to do. I mean that would mean Mitt would have to either win something like Oregon or New Jersey to do it though.
Posted by: Rich at October 11, 2012 06:34 PM (pnHKr)
Oregon last I heard was O+8
Posted by: The Jackhole at October 11, 2012 02:40 PM (nTgAI)
Posted by: HtP at October 11, 2012 02:40 PM (jx2j9)
About 10 minutes ago I the anchor on Fox described FL as a "toss up".
Well, I noticed that Obama was lying about Benghazi about a month before they did, too.
Posted by: Optimizer at October 11, 2012 02:41 PM (As94z)
Posted by: steevy at October 11, 2012 02:42 PM (6o4Fb)
Definitely up there, as even D>2008 polls can only get Obama a point or two ahead. But I'd think more 3-4% at the moment, not quite 7.
Any breakdowns on this poll?"
Naw, 7 points feels about right. Bush took the state by 5%. The Univision interview killed Obama.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 11, 2012 02:42 PM (dX4hn)
Posted by: I lurk, therefore I am at October 11, 2012 02:42 PM (4ramR)
Mayday...I agree with you but remember one thing..POLLING is very very expensive...sometimes I am not sure how many people know the cost of one poll for say 400 LV....the cost would amaze people! Suffolk has to justify the cost to its subscribers and advertisers....that is economics and whether or not they want stories of Romney dominating does nothing to their bottom line. They must justify spending literally tens of thousands of dollars in any state they poll. So if they are polling states that they can see little point in polling then more than likely it is economics. They have to reallocate their resources to other states...just like campaigns...Obama is quietly pulling money out of North Carolina. I am waiting to see when Obama puts money in PA!! Romney this week will for the first time SPEND MORE MONEY than Obama on TV....that is the week coming up...15th of Oct...he has more ad buys then Obama...Crossroads announced a 7.3 million buy in Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Florida to pound Obama...saw the ad here yesterday in Orlando...As well the EIC committee announced big buys in Ohio, WI, FL and VA and some other swing states to pound Obama and Senate Candidates over Israel.
If Suffolk wanted to be quiet about it..He would never have gone on O'Reilly to tell him. They would have just stopped polling and left! And no one would know and we conservatives would not even have the good awareness of why!
Posted by: bluerose75 at October 11, 2012 02:43 PM (HDcKc)
^THIS.
Oregon will NOT go Romney. I lived there for nearly 12 years -- it's as blue as Massachusetts. Portland is fucking Moscow-on-the-Willamette.
Posted by: Torch-Wielding Villager at October 11, 2012 02:43 PM (sTS/8)
Posted by: Truman North at October 11, 2012 02:43 PM (I2LwF)
Seen a few Nobama bumper stickers here in central coast CA.
Haven't seen more than a couple B.O. 2012 stickers. Very sparse.
Then, the other day I saw "OBAMAGAS !" written in orange Sharpie on a Chevron pump.
Posted by: wth at October 11, 2012 02:44 PM (wAQA5)
Posted by: Chris R at October 11, 2012 02:44 PM (qP4e9)
I thought I'd re-comment this thing that got me so... well it nearly had me... sort of made me think about being outraged, but in the end didn't.
http://tinyurl.com/8onhxqj
Posted by: HtP at October 11, 2012 02:45 PM (jx2j9)
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at October 11, 2012 02:46 PM (lOmbq)
Posted by: HtP at October 11, 2012 02:47 PM (jx2j9)
Posted by: joeindc44 found the last comment to be vile, particularly vile at October 11, 2012 02:47 PM (QxSug)
Posted by: bluerose75 at October 11, 2012 02:48 PM (HDcKc)
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at October 11, 2012 06:46 PM (lOmbq)
Dumber than a dumptruck full of empty taxpayer paid contraceptive wrappers.
Posted by: HtP at October 11, 2012 02:49 PM (jx2j9)
Posted by: Truman North at October 11, 2012 06:43 PM (I2LwF)
I hope so, but as Winston Wolfe said, "Well, let's not start sucking each other's dicks quite yet".
Posted by: Ombudsman at October 11, 2012 02:49 PM (eOufH)
Oregon is populated with people from California which left that larger state because it wasn't liberal enough. Oregon will not go to Romney. Not now, not in the foreseeable future. Kim Jong-Jung-Ill-Bung-Sun would beat Romney.
Posted by: Sticky Wicket at October 11, 2012 02:50 PM (L7hol)
Posted by: Jim Scrummy at October 11, 2012 02:50 PM (y12hg)
--
Rebel, I was thinking the same thing too. After the immediate and overwhelming negative media following last week's debate I fully expected the O campaign to drop some sort of bomb (figuratively or literally, given Libya is a hanging fly ball). Nothing. Then with the polls moving decisively toward Romney, their response is Big Bird? The must be completely empty ammo.
They seem scattered, panicked which is another indication they must not have anything. I get the sense they haven't taken a deep breath to calmly assess their situation, because I (and all of us, I'm sure) can easily think of other ways they could've reacted that would have been better for them. Either the campaign is in disarray, or Obama or Valerie are making decisions themselves and their staff are afraid to contradict them.
Posted by: Mayday at October 11, 2012 02:50 PM (F3s39)
Having reviewed "Dave in Fla"s site, here's where I think the election stands:
Start with the assumption that we have all of McCain's states, plus IN(11). That's 191 EV.
Suppose we believe that pollster who says the race is over in FL(29), NC(15), VA(13) - that Romney has them all. "Dave in Fla" attests to the idea that Romney has FL, which I personally find comforting. That brings us up to 248 EV.
Dave has a special OH( 18 ) analysis that shows that, with his 2010 model (which is the one I tend to go with), Romney is up 4.5%. So add OH. That gets you to 266 EV.
Romney needs 270 EV, so beyond FL, NC, VA, and OH, ... ANY of the remaining swing states would do the trick: CO(9), IA(6), MI(16), NH(4), NV(6), PA(20), or WI(10).
Things look pretty good right now.
Posted by: Optimizer at October 11, 2012 02:52 PM (As94z)
Bush 2004.
Overall, Bush took 45% of Hispanics nationwide.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 11, 2012 02:52 PM (dX4hn)
Posted by: JackStraw at October 11, 2012 02:53 PM (TMB3S)
Posted by: Truman North at October 11, 2012 06:43 PM (I2LwF)
I'm in one of the redder counties in NY but not too far from NYC, and there is virtually no Obama support to be found, a far cry from 2008. Among my Obama voting friends from last time, most are either voting Romney or not voting. The few true liberals are voting against Romney. My work takes me to many small businesses during the course of the day, virtually none supporting Obama and many claim to have voted him last time. Obama will still probably win, but it's gonna be a hell of a lot closer.
Posted by: mugiwara at October 11, 2012 02:53 PM (XT2y5)
143 "the invasive fleeing Californian species is a particularly nasty parasite"
help... me... I'm.... dying....
Posted by: SF Bay Area and greater Los Angeles at October 11, 2012 02:54 PM (wAQA5)
Posted by: JackStraw at October 11, 2012 02:55 PM (TMB3S)
Posted by: The Ghost of Flannery O'Connor at October 11, 2012 02:55 PM (mMtFx)
"136 Romney will win NJ. New York is in play. It's going to be brutal."
OK, I'm getting as optimistic as the next guy, but NY? That's crazy-talk!
That being said, I'm in the reddest Congressional district in NY, and I'm seeing very few signs. But I've seen so few Obama signs, that I couldn't tell you what they look like.
Posted by: Optimizer at October 11, 2012 02:56 PM (As94z)
Posted by: joeindc44 found the last comment to be vile, particularly vile at October 11, 2012 02:58 PM (QxSug)
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 11, 2012 02:59 PM (dX4hn)
Polling does cost more than most people realize, but bear in mind anything we read publicly has been released for publication. I have no doubt at all that there will continue to be massive amounts of polling in all swing states, whether publicly released or not.
Posted by: Mayday at October 11, 2012 03:00 PM (F3s39)
****
1992
http://www.270towin.com/states/Florida
Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at October 11, 2012 03:00 PM (piMMO)
Posted by: Mountains Landbarons and Serfs at October 11, 2012 03:02 PM (Xx7iB)
My prayers for the first debate were for strength and focus for Romney and confusion for Obama. My prayers for tonight for Ryan are the same but I've added "may his evil and corrupt tongue cleave to the roof of his mouth" for Biden. It just seemed to fit.
Posted by: 56 and loving RR at October 11, 2012 03:03 PM (9zugO)
Posted by: SouthCounty at October 11, 2012 03:03 PM (6CSR9)
FL, NC, and VA are now in Romney's column. He is ahead by enough that unlimited commercials can't swing them back to Obama.
IA is almost in Romney's column and NH and CO are tied. Obama is leading in NV, OR, WI, MI, and PA.
But it all comes down to OH. Romney is leading there by about 3, but it is a must win for Obama (it isn't for Romney). It is the hill that Obama will die on.
If Romney wins OH and IA, CO, or NH, he wins.
Obama will never admit to pulling out of FL, NC, or VA, and will keep doing events in VA. He can't afford to let people think he is giving up on any state.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 11, 2012 03:14 PM (dX4hn)
Posted by: Red an Bluestate at October 11, 2012 03:18 PM (sRIFP)
Obama and the democrats are big S socialists. Unless you're a dumbass democrat idiot who has no idea about the origins and history of big S socialism.
Posted by: Fresh at October 11, 2012 03:22 PM (O7ksG)
Posted by: Redman Bluestate at October 11, 2012 03:29 PM (sRIFP)
Posted by: Chipperoo at October 11, 2012 03:30 PM (6c62F)
Posted by: @PurpAv at October 11, 2012 03:31 PM (OQNdB)
Posted by: Jean at October 11, 2012 06:40 PM (u5ozF)
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Then she can do it with her private money. Not mine. Unless I get a say in the decision, I don't pay for it.
Posted by: mama winger in paul ryan's district at October 11, 2012 03:34 PM (P6QsQ)
http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/allencampaign_pollmemo_10-10-12.html
Posted by: Isophorone at October 11, 2012 04:09 PM (m/Ana)
Posted by: Steve Johnson at October 11, 2012 04:50 PM (2IYWT)
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Posted by: Zharkov at October 11, 2012 02:11 PM (hmcRy)