Ace of Spades HQ

October 19, 2012

FoxNews: Support For Obama Dips, From +9 to MoE +3
— Ace

Sorry, I'm kind of tapped. It's going to be crap posts like this from here on out.

It's 46-43. That 46 looks pretty weak, but people keep saying "undecided voters break for the incumbent" and that's really not true.

Still, progress, and in a poll that tends to always be sort of bad for Republicans (despite what you might guess, and despite what liberals still think, because they don't bother checking their guesses).

Obama topped Romney by seven percentage points in Ohio a month ago (49-42 percent).
The president has lost ground among independents (down 10 points from September), women (down eight points) and voters under age 35 (down six points).
Half of Ohio voters are Â“extremelyÂ” interested in the election. Among these most interested voters, Romney is ahead by 10 percentage points (52-42 percent). In addition, by a 12-point margin, Romney supporters (65 percent) are more likely than Obama supporters (53 percent) to say it is Â“extremelyÂ” important their candidate win in November.

Here's something:

[W]hen asked who deserves more credit for OhioÂ’s unemployment rate being lower than the national average, nearly half of Ohio likely voters -- 45 percent -- say Republican Gov. John Kasich, while 35 percent say the president should get more credit.

One big problem for Romney is that Obama's favorable number is at 55%, while his own is at 48%. I'm starting to buy into the idea that favorability is a strong --maybe the strongest -- indicator of who'll prevail on election day.

On the other hand, via @justkarl, the breakdown of D/R/I is 42/34/20.

No wonder Obama comes out ahead.

Fox also says Romney's up three 48-45, in Florida, a state many are assuming is now in the "Leans Pretty Strongly R" column.

Posted by: Ace at 02:20 PM | Comments (158)
Post contains 310 words, total size 2 kb.

1 ...but I just got here.

Posted by: dogfish at October 19, 2012 02:22 PM (N2yhW)

2 It's October 19 and Obama is still trying to shore up his base. That says a lot about the state of the race.

Posted by: obladioblada at October 19, 2012 02:22 PM (p1D8B)

3 The president has lost ground among independents (down 10 points from September), women (down eight points) and voters under age 35 (down six points). That's 24 points!!!

Posted by: Truman North at October 19, 2012 02:23 PM (I2LwF)

4 YEEEHAAAA !

Posted by: aleccalson at October 19, 2012 02:23 PM (usWYv)

5 I hear the president is gaining in dead voter counts though.

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 19, 2012 02:23 PM (ovpNn)

6 Where's Gerg?He ought to be here any second...

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna at October 19, 2012 02:24 PM (9+ccr)

7 ace, have you posted about the James Rosen story.....the state dept. release of memos from Amb. Stevens?

He sent a 3 page memo to state asking for more security on the day he died.

Posted by: Tami at October 19, 2012 02:24 PM (X6akg)

8 I want to see Barky cry like a little bitch on concession night.

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 19, 2012 02:24 PM (ovpNn)

9 Truman math super genius!

Posted by: dogfish at October 19, 2012 02:24 PM (N2yhW)

10 Sorry, I'm kind of tapped. It's going to be crap posts like this from here on out. I understand, Ace. Fisticuffs with Lawrence O'Donnell the Draft Dodger is draining.

Posted by: logprof at October 19, 2012 02:24 PM (jKE+Z)

11 Actually, it was Rep. Issa that release the memos....not the state dept.

Posted by: Tami at October 19, 2012 02:24 PM (X6akg)

12 OFA is pulli g out of battleground states. Romney is putting money into cracking the blue firewall. We're good.

Posted by: Truman North at October 19, 2012 02:25 PM (I2LwF)

13 'Undecideds" DO break strongly for the challenger this close to an election

IF they vote; they break strongly for not voting...

Posted by: Major _____ de Coverly at October 19, 2012 02:25 PM (Dll6b)

14 New blog post: Meanwhile... at the Vanguard of the Revolution It seems that the Occupy Las Vegas groupÂ’s Spokes council was going to have a glorious meeting of the vanguard of their Anarcho-Syndicalist utopia. So, I decided to drop by and see the overwhelming forces that would liberate us from our freedom and stuff. This is the glorious scene, comrade, that I beheld that day. http://politicalhat.com/?p=271

Posted by: The Political Hat at October 19, 2012 02:25 PM (XvHmy)

15 But the CNN/ORC poll has it tied in Florida with only an 8.5% margin of Error!

You guys are fooling yourselves if you believe these polls.

Posted by: Greg at October 19, 2012 02:25 PM (ovpNn)

16 I want to see Barky cry like a little bitch on concession night.
---
And Ed Schultz
Chrissie Mathews.
Lawrence O'Donnell.

I have a feeling the Rachel Maddow will take it like a man.

Posted by: CUS at October 19, 2012 02:25 PM (84pE9)

17 It's not over?

Posted by: Bob Beckel, likes the incuntbint at October 19, 2012 02:25 PM (1Y+hH)

18 "undecided voters break for the incumbent" and that's really not true

What ignorant fool would say this? Undecideds always break to the challenger. The only exception in the last 40 years was 2004.

If after 4 years you can't support the current president your only two choices are vote for the challenger or not vote.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 19, 2012 02:26 PM (dX4hn)

19 Once again, Ohio will under no circumstances vote for Obungles. It ain't happening. He is not popular at all here and Republican enthusiasm is off the charts. The Romney ground game here is excellent as well. Book it.

Posted by: Witchfinder at October 19, 2012 02:26 PM (pLTLS)

d by: Greg at October 19, 2012 06:25 PM (ovpNn)

Havent you gone fooked urself yet Turdflower?

Posted by: Meathammer at October 19, 2012 02:26 PM (W2qJe)

21 Fox uses a D + 5 sampling, BTW ---- right out of FantasyLand

Posted by: Major _____ de Coverly at October 19, 2012 02:26 PM (Dll6b)

22 Shut it Greg.

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 19, 2012 02:26 PM (ovpNn)

23 Nate Silver says we're over a 2-1 favorite, we're in great shape, and told us not to freak out. So I'm not freaking out. Ok? I'M NOT FREAKING OUT. I'M TOTALLY COOL, OK?

Posted by: Enlightened lib from Berkeley at October 19, 2012 02:26 PM (M7Cfv)

24 I'm still waiting for all the information to come in. I'll probably make up my mind by the end of the year.

Posted by: Undecided Voter at October 19, 2012 02:27 PM (NWLVJ)

25 21
d by: Greg at October 19, 2012 06:25 PM (ovpNn)

Havent you gone fooked urself yet Turdflower?

Posted by: Meathammer at October 19, 2012 06:26 PM (W2qJe)

You Tell Him Sassy Pants!

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 19, 2012 02:27 PM (ovpNn)

26 Ace is down? Ace is down?

Posted by: Nancy Pelosi at October 19, 2012 02:28 PM (3zJEz)

27 Fox News Polling Blows Goats !!!

Posted by: Evilpens at October 19, 2012 02:28 PM (ck76k)

28 Hey, Political Hat - Got any insight on why Heller is rising in the polls, but Romney isn't, in NV?

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 19, 2012 02:28 PM (dX4hn)

29 28 Fox News Polling Blows Goats !!!

Posted by: Evilpens at October 19, 2012 06:28 PM (ck76k)

They really have seemed off.

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna at October 19, 2012 02:28 PM (9+ccr)

30 This is the glorious scene, comrade, that I beheld that day.
--
Ok. Who farted?

Posted by: CUS at October 19, 2012 02:28 PM (84pE9)

31 What's with Fox polls always having so many undecideds?

Posted by: MidGeorgian at October 19, 2012 02:28 PM (qBGUl)

32 why does everyone hate greg so much he seems like a nice fellow ...... HAHA just kidding ! eat shit greg !

Posted by: aleccalson at October 19, 2012 02:29 PM (usWYv)

33 for the 99th time, ace: Undecided voters, 2 - 3 weeks from an election, will mostly either vote for the challenger or not vote.

Whether or not they sit it out or vote for the challenger differs from one cycle to another, but very few "late undecideds" vote for the incumbent

Posted by: Major _____ de Coverly at October 19, 2012 02:29 PM (Dll6b)

34 It's a shame Chris farley is no longer with us. He would have played Candy Crawley well on SNL (like he did the fat chick from Wilson Phillips).

Posted by: logprof at October 19, 2012 02:29 PM (jKE+Z)

35 34 Well, maybe if he throws in a phone...

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 19, 2012 02:29 PM (lddO4)

36 ooooohhhh Greggie! Where are you? It's Friday night. I have to be exercised, or I get colic.

Posted by: Uberjustice Klovenhoofer at October 19, 2012 02:30 PM (UW6NX)

37 D+8...D+8 and we are only down by a smidge? We can win Ohio, no more eeyoreisms about Ohio.

Posted by: Nate at October 19, 2012 02:30 PM (BBlzg)

38 28 Fox News Polling Blows Goats !!! Posted by: Evilpens at October 19, 2012 06:28 PM (ck76k) Being blown would be an improvement over what I usually get.

Posted by: The Goat at October 19, 2012 02:30 PM (jKE+Z)

39 when is the friday evening document dump coming?

Or are they holding it till after the foreign policy debate?

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 19, 2012 02:30 PM (ovpNn)

40 >>What ignorant fool would say this? Undecideds always break to the challenger. The only exception in the last 40 years was 2004. Now, now, go easy on him. He's got Romnesia.

Posted by: JackStraw at October 19, 2012 02:31 PM (TMB3S)

41 What's with Fox polls always having so many undecideds? Posted by: MidGeorgian

I'm not sure what to tell you.

Posted by: Diet high in irony at October 19, 2012 02:31 PM (UW6NX)

42 What's with Fox polls always having so many undecideds?

Posted by: MidGeorgian at October 19, 2012 06:28 PM (qBGUl)

when a stranger calls them about voting decisions, more than a few people dither and babble, hew and haw ( as the Old Folks used to say). It takes time and patience to coax a preference out of them, and pollsters have been known to just end the call and mark them as 'undecided'

Posted by: Major _____ de Coverly at October 19, 2012 02:31 PM (Dll6b)

43 Fox always seems to lean 2-3 % points Democrat. Remember the last Fox poll in 2004 had Kerry winning by around 2 points.

Posted by: MidGeorgian at October 19, 2012 02:31 PM (qBGUl)

Can't remember which poll, but saw one recently where the pollster asked the undecideds how they were leaning. I do remember the numbers:

42% Romney

44% totally still undecided and lost

5% Obama

BOOM.

Posted by: Bob Beckel, likes the incuntbint at October 19, 2012 02:31 PM (1Y+hH)

45 Once again, Ohio will under no circumstances vote for Obungles. It ain't happening. He is not popular at all here and Republican enthusiasm is off the charts. The Romney ground game here is excellent as well. Book it.

Posted by: Witchfinder at October 19, 2012 06:26 PM (pLTLS)

-------------------------------------------------------

Talked to a friend of mine from Columbus a couple of days ago, and he more or less was verbatim on what you've just commented. Oihoans do not like the SCOAMT.

Posted by: Soona at October 19, 2012 02:31 PM (3zJEz)

46 dammit, I thought we were winning.

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at October 19, 2012 02:31 PM (QxSug)

47 Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna at October 19, 2012 06:28 PM (9+ccr) NO!! I mean forever ! they have sucked

Posted by: Evilpens at October 19, 2012 02:31 PM (ck76k)

Are you fucking kidding me?

Why would I want to say that I'm voting for Romney...and then have Union thugs show up at my house?

Posted by: "Undecided" at October 19, 2012 02:32 PM (ipkPX)

49 Only D+5? It was D+8 in 2008, and that was before the democrat base was energized with winning issues like tampons, Big Bird, Mormons, and binders.

Posted by: Undecided Voter at October 19, 2012 02:32 PM (NWLVJ)

50 > That 46 looks pretty weak, but people keep saying "undecided voters break for the incumbent"

It will be true in this election (barring any unforeseen game-changer between now and election day).

Posted by: Nicholas Kronos at October 19, 2012 02:32 PM (vouc9)

51 Look at internals for Ohio Fox poll political identification - 42% dem 34 % GOP 20% indie. Bullshit.

Posted by: Honey Badger at October 19, 2012 02:32 PM (GvYeG)

52 asked who deserves more credit for OhioÂ’s unemployment rate being lower than the national average, nearly half of Ohio likely voters -- 45 percent -- say Republican Gov. John Kasich, while 35 percent say the president should get more credit.
--
Give credit locally where it's long overdue!

Posted by: panzernashorn at October 19, 2012 02:32 PM (BAnPT)

53

40 when is the friday evening document dump coming?

Or are they holding it till after the foreign policy debate?

Well there were some documents today from the dead Ambassador. I haven't seen it mentioned in the MSM so they must not have amounted to much..

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna at October 19, 2012 02:32 PM (9+ccr)

54 Haha, Romney down by 3 in Ohio. In a D+8 poll! Bad news for Romney, obviously! Believe me, I'm a polester...... er, I mean pollster!

Posted by: RomneylosesMogadishu at October 19, 2012 02:32 PM (/YJYi)

55 When it comes to Oiho, look at '08. 0bama by 205k votes. John McCain -- who could not even come up with a reason that 0bama shouldn't be in the WH and said, 'my friends, you don't have to' -- I can't type the rest of that tripe.

That 205k number is flipped already -- I'd bet my bottom dollar on it.

Like Crazy Joe Biden says, "I was there." So have I. I've driven through a large percentage of the now empty industrial parks in that state with signs everywhere advertising 50k, 200k, 200k, 500k feet available. No free government 0bamaphones are gonna fix that. Only a fundamental restructuring of our tax structure will create the jobs that fill those industrial parks.

205k. 105k more conservatives show up, 105k disgruntled 0bama voters stay home. I don't believe any poll coming out of that state for one minute.

Posted by: Schrödinger's cat at October 19, 2012 02:32 PM (feFL6)

56 I'm also feeling a little tapped. Well, a lot of tapped, actually.

Posted by: Greg's Ass at October 19, 2012 02:33 PM (3ziXJ)

57 CAC @ConArtCritic Fox Poll Ohio Romney 43 Obama 46- D+8 poll, Indies going to Romney by...24 points.

Posted by: Evilpens at October 19, 2012 02:33 PM (ck76k)

"but people keep saying "undecided voters break for the incumbent"..." People are saying that? Really? Who pray tell? For several decades the meme was that undecideds break for the challenger. Hell, for several decades the meme was that undecideds break 2-1 for the challenger. So much so that if you deigned to point out that that wasn't true you'd have been shouted down and ridiculed. FYI, in reality "undecided voters" this close to an election is an oxymoron. They don't actually vote. Or it's basically a coin flip.

Posted by: Tsar Nicholas II at October 19, 2012 02:33 PM (pmsMR)

59 2004 went against the trend because ( IMHO ) the MFM had been tearing Bush down for four years, and a lot of R-leaning people took until the last minute to finally get an Irresistible Urge to vote for him

Posted by: Major _____ de Coverly at October 19, 2012 02:34 PM (Dll6b)

60 Live by the EC, die by the EC. The EC can ensure smaller states aren't totally ignored in favor of NY and CA. It can also doom us to another term of Obama.

Posted by: Paul at October 19, 2012 02:34 PM (g4Saz)

61 Some good stuff coming out in Zimmermanville. He appears to have had a good day in court while the state, not so much.

Posted by: Redd at October 19, 2012 02:34 PM (RoEtU)

62 54 Well there were some documents today from the dead Ambassador. I haven't seen it mentioned in the MSM so they must not have amounted to much..

--

Jerry Doyle's on a tear.

Posted by: panzernashorn at October 19, 2012 02:34 PM (BAnPT)

63 Undecided voters break against the incumbent. They did in 2004, they did in 1992, they did in 1980.

Posted by: The Q at October 19, 2012 02:34 PM (B/yDO)

Fox News Polling Blows Goats !!!

Posted by: Evilpens at October 19, 2012 06:28 PM (ck76k)

----------------------------------------------

Agree. I always consider their results as an outlyer. I think they're just trying to keep the election hype going.

Posted by: Soona at October 19, 2012 02:35 PM (3zJEz)

65 No Obama enthusiasm in Ohio. Folks despise the fraud and are vocal about it. Team Soetoro knows this but have to save face. Barry is reduced to appearing on college campuses in the Buckeye State. Romney will roll!

Posted by: Ohio Native at October 19, 2012 02:35 PM (OiC7K)

66 63 54 Well there were some documents today from the dead Ambassador. I haven't
seen it mentioned in the MSM so they must not have amounted to much..

I should have put a sarc tag...

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna at October 19, 2012 02:35 PM (9+ccr)

67 Romney is up 52/28 in Ohio with independents.
.
That is KEY finding

Ohio goin R

Posted by: AHFF at October 19, 2012 02:35 PM (Co70e)

68 "undecided voters break for the incumbent"
--
only when the incumbent is doing a GREAT JOB, Brownie.

Posted by: panzernashorn at October 19, 2012 02:35 PM (BAnPT)

69 yes, Tsar, many late undecideds do not vote. In some elections, a large majority do not vote;

If they DO vote, it's mostly for the challenger. We have nationwide polls only since the 1950s, but this has been a constant

Posted by: Major _____ de Coverly at October 19, 2012 02:36 PM (Dll6b)

70 Ace, you should have pointed out to Chuck Todd that there's a certain personality type which over-aligns with public opinion (ESFJ ~12% of population) and junk polls are intended to influence them.

Posted by: JB at October 19, 2012 02:36 PM (xVcWj)

71 So color me shocked. Yet another FoxNews Poll with a D+8 sample.

I mean seriously what the fuck? Why do all of these pollsters keep building in a better than 2008. Simply impossible.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 19, 2012 02:36 PM (hlUJY)

72 I'd like one of those pygmy goats. They're so cute the way they hop all over everything. Baaaaa!

Posted by: Redd at October 19, 2012 02:37 PM (RoEtU)

73 Buckle your seatbelts for the landslide.

Posted by: Yojimbo at October 19, 2012 02:37 PM (c9F8a)

74 ace sez, sorry i'm kinda tapped out now,It's going to be crap posts like this from here on out.
so maddow or o'donell got the upper hand?

Posted by: willow at October 19, 2012 02:38 PM (hX8cq)

75 >>> I'm starting to buy into the idea that favorability is a strong --maybe the strongest -- indicator of who'll prevail on election day.

Are we still mentioning punchable people? Cuz I'd like to punch Ace for harshing my Friday groove.

Posted by: Torch-Wielding Villager at October 19, 2012 02:38 PM (sTS/8)

Fox's polls in 2010 weren't very accurate either.

Posted by: wheatie at October 19, 2012 02:38 PM (ipkPX)

77 I went back to Ohio but my lead it was all gone no love at the train station no love downtown A, O, way to go, "OIHO"

Posted by: Barry The Pretender at October 19, 2012 02:38 PM (FcR7P)

78 Don't feel bad, Obama has a great future ahead of him as a star on Home Shopping Network.

Posted by: Yojimbo at October 19, 2012 02:39 PM (c9F8a)

79 Wait so with a Dem +8 sample and 11 undecided Obama only gets to 46? He is done. Wanna know the difference between a Gallup at 51 and a FoxNews at 43? A fucking +8 Dem sample.

That's 4 polls in the RCP average right now expecting a bigger Dem wave this year than 2008. Utter bullshit.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 19, 2012 02:39 PM (hlUJY)

80 77 You can't punch an Ewok. It's suicide.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 19, 2012 02:39 PM (lddO4)

81 74 they are funny

Posted by: aleccalson at October 19, 2012 02:39 PM (usWYv)

82 Hey, Political Hat - Got any insight on why Heller is rising in the polls, but Romney isn't, in NV? Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 19, 2012 06:28 PM (dX4hn) There is real doubt that Heller is ahead in Nevada: http://tinyurl.com/95kcqve Most pollsters got 2010 wrong. One of the few who got it right is showing Berkeley ahead by 3 points. It should also be said that the Dems have regained the voter registration advantage they had in '08 -- this is all due to an increase in their edge of 250% in the past 6 months. That being said, Heller will do better than Romney. Heller was elected statewide three times as secretary of state before moving to the House in '06. The good news about Nevada is that Rep. Heck is looking good in NV03 AND Tarkanian may pick-up the new NV04 that had been drawn for a Dem. (NV01 safe Deml NV02 safe GOP).

Posted by: The Political Hat at October 19, 2012 02:39 PM (XvHmy)

83 British WWII Vet
http://tinyurl.com/98yxztk
rare breed of endurance

Posted by: panzernashorn at October 19, 2012 02:39 PM (BAnPT)

That 46 looks pretty weak, but people keep saying "undecided voters break for the incumbent"

It will be true in this election (barring any unforeseen game-changer between now and election day).

-------------------------------------------------

This election is different. And everyone planning on voting knows it. Ohio's going for Romney.

Posted by: Soona at October 19, 2012 02:39 PM (3zJEz)

85 17 >>> I have a feeling the Rachel Maddow will take it like a man.

I hear that's what the strap-ons are for....

Posted by: Torch-Wielding Villager at October 19, 2012 02:40 PM (sTS/8)

86 If Independents are going Romney 52/28, I don't understand how Obama is leading, even with a D+8 sample.

Posted by: MidGeorgian at October 19, 2012 02:40 PM (qBGUl)

87 The single best person I have heard on Ohio is Larry Schweikart, professor at University of Dayton. He's been tweeting a ton of the early/absentee stuff and things look very good for us right now. Note, these are actual results not polls.

Posted by: JackStraw at October 19, 2012 02:41 PM (TMB3S)

88 Tami: "He sent a 3 page memo to state asking for more security on the day he died."

What was its timestamp? If it was 3:00 AM D.C. time, no one bothered to get it.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at October 19, 2012 02:41 PM (eHIJJ)

89 So who's running? I saw a show like two weeks ago with a white guy and a black guy debating. But then there was another show a few days later with an old crazy guy laughing at a younger guy. And the strangest thing was at the end of each show, they forgot to put up the number to text your vote to.

Posted by: Undecided Voter, youth vote edition at October 19, 2012 02:41 PM (NWLVJ)

90 88>>I hear that's' what strap-ons are for.... No, that's why she's getting testosterone shots.

Posted by: Yojimbo at October 19, 2012 02:41 PM (c9F8a)

91 LOL UTTERLY AMAZING:

Romney gets Indies by 24 POINTS AND LOSES?

Lol, I'm sorry but that is just silly. If Obama can only get to 46 with a Dem +8 sample he is completely and totally done.

Of course the talking heads at FoxNews wont see it that way, they will jsut see Obama +3 and declare Romney in trouble.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 19, 2012 02:42 PM (hlUJY)

92 89 If Independents are going Romney 52/28, I don't understand how Obama is leading, even with a D+8 sample. _________________ Oh that's easy. More republicans are going to vote for him this year than in 2008. Makes total sense.

Posted by: Dante at October 19, 2012 02:42 PM (NWLVJ)

Wife has TV on. Obama ads drowning us. Ugh.

(Colorado)

Posted by: Meremortal, looking for earplugs at October 19, 2012 02:43 PM (1Y+hH)

94 What about your gaffes, Romnesia? What about you gaaaaaafes???!

Posted by: RoyalOil at October 19, 2012 02:43 PM (imtbm)

95 If Obama can only get to 46

He can't even break 50%... he's toast...

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna at October 19, 2012 02:43 PM (9+ccr)

OT, Big Tex burned down today. Tragic.

I blame Obama.

http://tinyurl.com/9t5d65z

Posted by: Sandra Fluck at October 19, 2012 02:43 PM (5pMyq)

97 Early Voting in Nevada starts tomorrow. I will be comparing those numbers with '08 and '10, the later of which was, despite Reid's win, not a bad one for Republicans. Look for posts on that starting early next week. The registrars of voters for Clark & Washoe counties (90% of the population) will "get back to me" about absentee ballot requests. Last I heard was the RNC press release showing GOP requesting more then Dems... which doesn't square with the 250% Dem registration lead increase in the last six months

Posted by: The Political Hat at October 19, 2012 02:44 PM (XvHmy)

98 94 Hymenhopper?

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 19, 2012 02:44 PM (lddO4)

99 94>Rachel Maddow may be a dyke but she could kick the shit out of that pussy crybaby Glenn Beck. So what, Paul Ryan will still turn her straight IYKWAMAITTYD

Posted by: Yojimbo at October 19, 2012 02:44 PM (c9F8a)

100

Brett Baer and his panel...are ripping Barky over these cables that were released.

Even Kirsten Powers.

"Lies and deception, on so many levels."

Posted by: wheatie at October 19, 2012 02:44 PM (ipkPX)

101 Posted by: Paul at October 19, 2012 06:34 PM (g4Saz)

How, exactly.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 19, 2012 02:44 PM (2b4yb)

102 It is interesting what is happening here. The first time I got to vote was for Bob Dole, who never really excited anyone - a good man, but I was never excited about him. Then I voted for GWB for the next two elections. Again, I liked the guy, but was never really excited for him. And then McCain, in which case I had to force myself to vote. And I never voted for any of these guys in the primaries.

I'm excited to vote for Mitt Romney. The more I see of him, the more I like this guy. I've never been excited to vote for anyone, but I'm excited to vote for this guy. We have a real candidate here.

Posted by: jwbs at October 19, 2012 02:45 PM (liFiG)

103 So, is O'Donnell going the Andy Kaufmann career route? Will he start wrestling conservative women?

Posted by: Redd at October 19, 2012 02:45 PM (RoEtU)

104 Wait a goddamned second... **42% dem 34 % GOP 20%** and they get a dun dun dun 46?????????????????????? some math, 46-42=4 right? So, out of 34R and 20I, 54, you get...4? assume 040 (zero for Zero) from R, that's 25% of I's going D. This is bad for Zero.

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at October 19, 2012 02:45 PM (QxSug)

105 106 I bet you would. But why should we care?

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 19, 2012 02:45 PM (lddO4)

106 Posted by: JackStraw at October 19, 2012 06:41 PM (TMB3S)

Who the fuck are you...my last girlfriend?

Stop teasing and give us some details.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 19, 2012 02:46 PM (2b4yb)

107

OT, Big Tex burned down today. Tragic.
I blame Obama.

---------------------------------------

I blame it on 63 - 21. It was too much for him to bear.

Posted by: Soona at October 19, 2012 02:47 PM (3zJEz)

108 It would be helpful if the headline made it clear this is for Ohio and not nationwide. I was nervous there for a moment. FYI, I'm of the opinion that it's extmely unlikely to wi. The popular vote by 2% or more and still lose the electoral. Plus, there is no third party candidate to complicate things this year.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 19, 2012 02:47 PM (zrpqj)

109 ugh ban hammer for God's Sake

Posted by: phoenixgirl, what did huma abedin know at October 19, 2012 02:47 PM (j1z2L)

110

I have had it with this crap....Plus 8 in Oh....enough is enough....there is no credibility to it and it is embarrassing. Even with Plus 8 Obama can only get to 46 percent? That is pathetic....can someone please do a poll in OH that has an even or plus 3 Dem sample to stop this BS! I am so tired of seeing rubbish from the likes of Fox and others where they skew the sample so far it is insane. Here is an idea Fox...DO ONE WITH A PLUS 2 Sample for Obama or I will give you 3 and what will that say????/ Oh that is right Romney would be up. I can get an approval of 53 (not 55 ACE..that was last month's) with a PLUS 8 DEM SAMPLE TOO...so lets see do a Plus 3 Dem Sample...and that would bring Obama to about 48 percent Approval which is the range(46-4 he is really in and Romney would be up by 3.

So please any poll that has Plus 8 Dem Sample is JUNK!! My whole family outside of me lives in OH and the Repubs are jazzed and have one heck of a GOTV in OHIO!! And the early voting numbers in Ohio....have the DEMS WITH ONLY 7 percent lead....down from over 20 last time....

Sorry Fox nice try...did they think that partisan split would not matter? I guess not...cripe Obama barely had plus 8 in Ohio last time in 2008...but I guess Fox thinks (despite the fall in Dem Registration) that they will again have Plus 8. Anyone want some beach property on the Moon?

Romney leads with Independents and with the Repubs will win Oh by at least 4....I lived in OH most of my life and know the state well.

Posted by: bluerose75 at October 19, 2012 02:48 PM (HDcKc)

111 115 I'll take care of it.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 19, 2012 02:48 PM (lddO4)

112 117 Bye.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 19, 2012 02:49 PM (lddO4)

113 Damn I'm good.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 19, 2012 02:49 PM (lddO4)

114 http://goo.gl/tJxoN Sweitkart

Posted by: Redd at October 19, 2012 02:49 PM (RoEtU)

115 Soona: "I think they're just trying to keep the election hype going."

Bingo. It's the ratings, Stupid.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at October 19, 2012 02:49 PM (eHIJJ)

116 I hear the president is gaining in dead voter counts though.

----------

As well as the Nursing Home Vote / Alzheimer's Wing

Posted by: Lady in Black at October 19, 2012 02:49 PM (lTVJy)

117

Big binders and Romney coming

O can't do this on his own

This month I can hear the drumming

O's losing in Ohio

Gotta get down to it

Biden is bringing us down

Should have lost him long ago

At the debate, Clinton said

Obama almost cried

O's gonna lose Ohio

Posted by: Sandra Fluck at October 19, 2012 02:50 PM (5pMyq)

118 This Libya thing sinks obama. His goose is cooked. He is finished. No way out. Dead man walking.

Posted by: Nevergiveup at October 19, 2012 02:51 PM (j1gX1)

119 This is bad for Zero.

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at October 19, 2012 06:45 PM (QxSug)

Those internals and that poll result make no sense.

Posted by: Meremortal, cornfused at October 19, 2012 02:51 PM (1Y+hH)

120 123 Nah. They're trying some: "Everyone loves Obama, so you should too" bullshit.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 19, 2012 02:51 PM (lddO4)

121 Not mathematically possible.

Posted by: Joey Nyuk Nyuks Biden at October 19, 2012 02:51 PM (wAQA5)

122 Posted by: Soona at October 19, 2012 06:35 PM (3zJEz) NOpe Back to when Fox News Had Opinion Dynamics doing their polling till now when they do it They Have SUCKED

Posted by: Evilpens at October 19, 2012 02:51 PM (ck76k)

123 @97 Feel for you. Until the just after the 1st debate, Obama for some reason was barraging Georgia with advertising.

Posted by: MidGeorgian at October 19, 2012 02:51 PM (qBGUl)

124 Krauthammer: Let Alex Trebec moderate the debate. Give the question and get out of the way.

Posted by: Sandra Fluck at October 19, 2012 02:52 PM (5pMyq)

125 (The Media in general, I mean.)

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 19, 2012 02:52 PM (lddO4)

126 Damn I'm good.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 19, 2012 06:49 PM (lddO4)

That was a sock, Einstein.

Posted by: Meremortal, cornfused at October 19, 2012 02:52 PM (1Y+hH)

127 Maybe the hidden meme in the pro-Obama poll interpretations is to meant to let him down easy. It's way too soon to be crowing. "Don't forget, Barack, you grabbed the brass ring. You were President of the United States. And like Romney says, you got a lot to be proud of. "

Posted by: Jack at October 19, 2012 02:52 PM (wUFaM)

128 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at October 19, 2012 02:52 PM (Ts9tU)

129

Brett Baer is doing a Special tonight...'Death and Deception'...on the Benghazi timeline.

10pm est/9pm cst.

Posted by: wheatie at October 19, 2012 02:53 PM (ipkPX)

130 @108 I feel the same way. My first vote was in 2000 for GWB, but my enthusiasm wasn't this high. As I've learned more about Romney, heard him debate and campaign, etc., I've shifted from "voting against Obama" to "voting for Romney" to "Romney could be a near-great to great President." Congress's willingness to play ball may be the determining factor between those two. His demeanor during the debates convinced me that if he wants, he'll be able to twist arms to get his agenda through.

Posted by: Dante at October 19, 2012 02:53 PM (NWLVJ)

131 Damn sock.

Posted by: Jim in Virginia at October 19, 2012 02:53 PM (5pMyq)

132 133 Ho6UX? Look again, friend.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 19, 2012 02:54 PM (lddO4)

133 which name is the troll? & hash, please. I'll put it in for ban.

Posted by: ace at October 19, 2012 02:54 PM (LCRYB)

134 Barck Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable protector.

Posted by: Chris Stevens at October 19, 2012 02:54 PM (1Y+hH)

135

125 This Libya thing sinks obama. His goose is cooked. He is finished. No way out. Dead man walking.

Let's hope so, Nevergiveup.

But there are still a lot of dumbfuks out there who haven't been paying attention.

Posted by: wheatie at October 19, 2012 02:55 PM (ipkPX)

136 140 Herbert Hymenhopper Ho6UX

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 19, 2012 02:55 PM (lddO4)

137 Also, Sally Slitlicker

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 19, 2012 02:55 PM (lddO4)

138

which name is the troll? & hash, please. I'll put it in for ban.

Posted by: ace at October 19, 2012 06:54 PM (LCRYB)

Various names: Herman Hymnehopper, Gary Gashgrinder, Sally Slitlicker.

Ho6UX

Posted by: Meremortal at October 19, 2012 02:58 PM (1Y+hH)

139 Took a poll in my backyard last night. Only one of the dead raccoons showed any interest at all in voting for Obama, at least I think he did because he was still shitting himself.

Posted by: wth at October 19, 2012 02:58 PM (wAQA5)

140 Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 19, 2012 06:44 PM (lddO4) Gerald Gashgrinder at October 15, 2012 07:07 AM (Ho6UX). by: Herbert Hymenhopper at October 18, 2012 10:11 PM (Ho6UX) ...

Posted by: Evilpens at October 19, 2012 02:58 PM (ck76k)

141 The Fox News OH poll is good news for Romney. Democrats dominate early voting. Republicans dominate election-day voting. The Fox News poll specifically states that if you have already voted, you are counted as a likely voter (duh), so the poll is naturally picking up more democrats than republicans at this pointÂ…more democrats are slipping through the Fox News LV screening. ThatÂ’s why the poll is Dem+8, but on election day, when Republicans typically vote, that Dem+8 advantage will dramatically shrink. The poll also states that 400,000 people have already voted, and Obama is winning them by 20%. This sounds bad for Romney, but itÂ’s not. Over 5million people will vote in OH. 400k/5million = about 8% of the voting public. If Obama is winning 20% of 8%, that means Obama will have a head-start of about 1.8% of the voters in OH before election day. RomneyÂ’s election-day voting margin will far surpass 2%. Hell, McCain outpaced Obama in OH by more than 2% of voters who specifically voted on election day.

Posted by: Greymarch at October 19, 2012 02:58 PM (QGTBZ)

142 But there are still a lot of dumbfuks out there who haven't been paying attention. Posted by: wheatie at October 19, 2012 06:55 PM (ipkPX) Yeah I know and it would sure be a shame if they forgot to vote on Nov. 7th

Posted by: Nevergiveup at October 19, 2012 02:58 PM (j1gX1)

143 Mr. Dido - Go here. He's been tracking Ohio for years and seems to really know his stuff. https://twitter.com/LSchweikart

Posted by: JackStraw at October 19, 2012 02:58 PM (TMB3S)

144 Sorry, Hymenhopper

Posted by: Meremortal at October 19, 2012 02:58 PM (1Y+hH)

145

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 19, 2012 06:54 PM (lddO4)

You are right, my bad.

Posted by: Meremortal at October 19, 2012 02:59 PM (1Y+hH)

146 Brietbart reporting total EARLY/ absentee lead for ZEro down to 7. That won't cut it. He'd lose by 10 at that rate

Posted by: Evilpens at October 19, 2012 03:00 PM (ck76k)

147 Wow Wow Wow. >>>And if the new Libyan government was sending seasoned Islamic fighters and 400 tons of heavy weapons to Syria through a port in southern TurkeyÂ—a deal brokered by Stevens' primary Libyan contact during the Libyan revolutionÂ—then the governments of Turkey and the U.S. surely knew about it. Furthermore there was a CIA post in Benghazi, located 1.2 miles from the U.S. consulate, used as "a base for, among other things, collecting information on the proliferation of weaponry looted from Libyan government arsenals, including surface-to-air missiles" ... and that its security features "were more advanced than those at rented villa where Stevens died." http://tinyurl.com/9xdo65s It's all starting to come together now.

Posted by: JackStraw at October 19, 2012 03:01 PM (TMB3S)

148 My God, we're all 2 threads behind. Man the oars!

Posted by: Meremortal! at October 19, 2012 03:01 PM (1Y+hH)

149 Nothing but republications voting here today in Warren County Ohio. 1 person at the poll station on front passing out "red" sample ballots. No dems and everyone going in took one and appeared to be using them.

Posted by: Ohiovoter at October 19, 2012 03:02 PM (AkFx3)

150 Yeah, anyone want to know what the Fox Ohio poll really is?

Of course you do!

2008 turnout - Romney +2.38%
2010 turnout - Romney +8.01%
2004 turnout - Romney +10.92%
D+3 turnout - Romney +5.45%

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 19, 2012 03:03 PM (dX4hn)

151 I think we'd be safe to say that 2004 or 2010 is most likely

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at October 19, 2012 03:05 PM (QxSug)

152 When President Barack Obama addressed the nation at West Point in December of 2009, he announced he would be sending 30,000 U.S. troops to Afghanistan as part of a surge in order to Â“reverse the TalibanÂ’s momentum and deny it the ability to overthrow the government.Â” Â“We will pursue a military strategy that will break the Taliban's momentum and increase Afghanistan's capacity over the next 18 months,Â” Obama said then, laying down markers. Nearly three years later, ObamaÂ’a Afghanistan strategy has failed, resulting in thousands of dead American troops and tens of thousands more maimed. Even the militaryÂ’s own report card gave the Afghan surge a failing grade in a September 2012 review. The Taliban has been emboldened, waiting for America to fully withdrawal from "combat" after Obama telegraphed AmericaÂ’s plans to the world. In fact, the Taliban is so greatly thriving that Afghan President Hamid Karzai has been forced to try to cut deals with Taliban forces and even consider power-sharing arrangements in some provinces. And even Afghan troops who have been trained by U.S. and coalition forces are now killing Americans in insider attacks. These so-called Â“green-on-blueÂ” attacks have accounted for nearly 14% of coalition casualties in 2012. Some more startling facts: The insurgency launched more attacks this year. In some cases, substantially more: insurgents attacked about 2,000 times in July 2009 and a shade over 3,000 times in July 2012. ISAF registered about 475 attacks from homemade bombs in July 2009; and about 625 in July 2012. A Washington Times editorial asserted, "the Afghan strategy announced in December 2009 is no longer relevant," and "the future in Afghanistan is not stability or pacification but all-out civil war."

Posted by: Nevergiveup at October 19, 2012 03:05 PM (j1gX1)

153 @152 TL;Dr but reminds me of Annie C, since we seem to agree on everything, the earlier Bush doctrine for Afghan theater was small footprint. So, why surge there when that's been failure for other invaders? Now what?

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at October 19, 2012 03:09 PM (QxSug)

154 And with no Ohio, there is no other state in the union..

It's nice being cheap and easy.

Posted by: trolllosinghis mind

Posted by: Diet high in irony at October 19, 2012 03:09 PM (UW6NX)

155 The real question now is, with Romney getting 75% of I votes, what other bluer states are vulnerable? I see R60O40 which could be a 40 state drubbing

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at October 19, 2012 03:10 PM (QxSug)

156 A Washington Times editorial asserted, "the Afghan strategy announced in December 2009 is no longer relevant," and "the future in Afghanistan is not stability or pacification but all-out civil war."

Posted by: Nevergiveup at October 19, 2012 07:05 PM (j1gX1)

---------------------------------------

Geez, let's just nuke the whole fucking mess. And light up Iran with the power of the sun also.

Posted by: Soona at October 19, 2012 03:11 PM (3zJEz)

157 In case someone else hasn't already written it, Fox's Polls are more skewed the left than many are. They've always been one of the last to show positive polls for Romney.
Here's a good case for comparison (which btw has had Romney winning for as long as I've been watching this particular site....about 8 weeks now):http://www.unskewedpolls.com/. On this site at one time prior to the fallout with the second debate, he was over 7 points above Dumba$$ Traitor.

Posted by: avagreen at October 20, 2012 06:23 PM (WR2rX)

158 And, here's the electoral breakdown: Apparently, I can't post this link as it's annoying.

Research:
Mitt Romney 52 percent 342 electoral votes projected at UnSkewedPolls.com

Posted by: avagreen at October 20, 2012 06:29 PM (WR2rX)

Hide Comments | Add Comment | Refresh | Top

Comments are disabled. Post is locked.

146kb generated in CPU 0.0596, elapsed 0.234 seconds.
64 queries taking 0.199 seconds, 286 records returned.
Powered by Minx 1.1.6c-pink.