Ace of Spades HQ

August 15, 2012

History Is Against Obama Winning A Second Term
— DrewM

I'm not much for "past is prelude" but if you're looking for another sign of hope consider this....no President, starting with FDR* has failed to win more electoral votes in their second election than they did their first.

For all the talk about Romney having to "expand" his map, the reality is unlike successful incumbents, Obama's map is shrinking.

(Shameless plug: You can do the electoral collage math yourself with the phone app my business partner and I developed. Right now we have Android and Kindle Fire versions.)

There's simply no red state from 2008 that anyone thinks Obama is going to be competitive in, let alone win. He might still hang on to win but history, the economy, and the state of the country are against it.

*Thanks to @projectiondesk for pointing out that FDR qualifies for this trend if you discount his historically anomalous third and fourth terms. Not since Woodrow Wilson, almost 100 years ago, has an incumbent won reelection while losing Electoral College votes.

Also, I'd be remiss if I didn't point to CAC's rules for flipping control of the White House.

Posted by: DrewM at 05:09 AM | Comments (179)
Post contains 202 words, total size 2 kb.

1 he doesn't have to win more Electoral Votes. he just needs to hang onto the ones he won last time. in fact, he can afford to lose a few of those states

Posted by: kelley in virginia at August 15, 2012 05:13 AM (p3a8+)

2 i hate to be an eeyore, but that is the fact of the matter.

obviously, a lot can change in Mitt's favor. but Mitt is still slightly behind in the "swing" states

Posted by: kelley in virginia at August 15, 2012 05:13 AM (p3a8+)

Time to pull the Bat Chain? Not yet, but gettin there.

Posted by: Bat Chain Puller at August 15, 2012 05:14 AM (SCcgT)

4 And now....Gallup Daily:

47-45 Romney with a current 13% enthusiasm advantage R.

This thing is not even going to be close, even if they install the ball-gag in Biden today.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at August 15, 2012 05:15 AM (kNqmp)

5 Artur Davis better be packing.

Posted by: TheLittlShiningMan at August 15, 2012 05:16 AM (PH+2B)

6 Okay, it may be a little off topic but this is clearly a moron story. Yeah, she may be a Democrat whack job but I'd vote for her.

http://preview.tinyurl.com/9ny8qgm

Posted by: WalrusRex at August 15, 2012 05:16 AM (Hx5uv)

7 History is not the only one against a second term

Posted by: Least at August 15, 2012 05:16 AM (GW/GR)

8 "but Mitt is still slightly behind in the "swing" states..."

And that would be according to....?

Also- hate to go all alternate history, but yank Perot out of both of Clinton's elections and we'd be having a much different discussion here.

Posted by: Chariots of Toast at August 15, 2012 05:16 AM (ksERZ)

9 He is going to lose every State that Bush had won except NV which has gone blue.

Add to that a few traditional States like PA and Wi that he is going to lose.

This will be a Republican wave election.

Posted by: Vic at August 15, 2012 05:16 AM (YdQQY)

10 Vic,

We're going to win Michigan, too.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at August 15, 2012 05:17 AM (kNqmp)

11 We will win because you republicans are all racists and want to kill old people and babies.

Posted by: Democrat Projectiondesk at August 15, 2012 05:18 AM (tf9Ne)

12 And piss on the "polls" right now. These are Carter polls and are meaningless.

Posted by: Vic at August 15, 2012 05:18 AM (YdQQY)

13 chariots: RCP avg has Obami up in swing states. I know he is up in Va.

look, we just need to keep our heads down & keep working.

Posted by: kelley in virginia at August 15, 2012 05:19 AM (p3a8+)

14 So what's the deal with FL. That is what everyone gnashes their teeth about. Did Obambi take it last time and what do the numbers look like this time for us? Can obama win if he loses FL?

Posted by: Brainpimp at August 15, 2012 05:19 AM (mwlsF)

15 We're going to win Michigan, too.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at August 15, 2012 09:17 AM (kNqmp)

Yes, I think there is a good chance of that but I didn't want to try listing all the blue States there were going red and get into another long discussion with the Eeyores.

Posted by: Vic at August 15, 2012 05:19 AM (YdQQY)

16 the history that has more meaning for me is that no President has won re-election when unemployment is over 8% (is that the right figure?). I think that is a better tell.

Posted by: kelley in virginia at August 15, 2012 05:20 AM (p3a8+)

17 I pray that RnR can carry MI, WI, IA, NH, VA, NC and FL... I'm a little bit wary of MI, WI, IA and VA... Don't think RnR will win PA... I could see O squeaking by with 271... God help us all at that point...

Posted by: TFC3Tweets at August 15, 2012 05:20 AM (bgzAd)

18 This thing is not even going to be close, even if they install the ball-gag in Biden today.
Ding! Ding! Ding!

Posted by: crichton ringing his bell and pointing at harry reid at August 15, 2012 05:21 AM (vDl/w)

19 R&R might carry NC. Va is looking close at this point.

Posted by: kelley in virginia at August 15, 2012 05:21 AM (p3a8+)

20 Can you imagine if Newt or Santorum were our nominee? The election would be all about them as opposed to Obama and his policies. Romney was the best choice for one reason.... ELECTABILITY!

/bullet avoided.

Posted by: aerofanatic at August 15, 2012 05:21 AM (h8FS0)

21 I think that the way this election is going, O is clearly going for the vote of the lowest common demoninator... He needs the ill infomred to think RnR are going to come after them as this boogey man monster ticket... They fal right in his lap... O isn't even trying to have an adult conversation... I'm thrilled Romney got real tough last night... I'm sick and tired of the Dems lying their asses off and not being honest one bit... Smells like desperation.

Posted by: TFC3Tweets at August 15, 2012 05:22 AM (bgzAd)

22 If we have to do math, then I demand a plaid map. It is only fair.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD 2012 - going to plaid at August 15, 2012 05:23 AM (VtjlW)

23 So what's the deal with FL. That is what everyone gnashes their teeth about.

Did Obambi take it last time and what do the numbers look like this time for us? Can obama win if he loses FL?

Posted by: Brainpimp at August 15, 2012 09:19 AM (mwlsF)

The worry is that Obama's lies about the Ryan Budget will scare seniors away in Florida. Obama carried the state in 2008, and it will be difficult for either candidate to win without it.

Posted by: Washington Nearsider at August 15, 2012 05:23 AM (fwARV)

24 I heard Romney on the radio this AM saying Obama was trying to break the country apart and cobble together 51% of the pieces. I'm enjoying our candidates this time around.

Posted by: nickless at August 15, 2012 05:24 AM (MMC8r)

25 It's simple enough to flip the argument on its head, though, and look at presidents who did not win second terms:

Truman -- did not run again

LBJ -- did not run again

Carter -- lost by more than 400 EV

GHWB -- lost by more than 200 EV

Thus, one could say Romney is doomed because every challenger who defeated an elected incumbent did so by more than 200 electoral votes...and no one expects that to happen this time.

The obvious conclusion is every election is different. Obama does not need to flip a state. He just needs 270 electoral votes.

Posted by: Nicholas Kronos at August 15, 2012 05:25 AM (qyQRd)

As Michael Barone pointed out, the best indicator of how people will vote is how they voted in the last election.

Over the past three presidential elections, the voter breakdown between democrats and republicans hasn't varied more than 1% from the results of the previous midterm election. Should this hold true, we're looking at a R+4 or R+5.

Posted by: jwest at August 15, 2012 05:25 AM (ZDsRL)

27 History was against Obama winning a first term.

Really. An anti-American collectivist as President?

Posted by: The Highland Pipes at August 15, 2012 05:26 AM (M8BJV)

28 NC will go R and R by a wide margin 5 to 6 pts.

VA will go R and R by fewer, 3 to 5

FL will go R and R by at least 5 points.

And yes, choom is going to lose BIG.

Posted by: Vic at August 15, 2012 05:27 AM (YdQQY)

29 The current polls have used every gymnastics trick available to slant things and even that only gets you know who by a hair. He's getting clubbed in Rasmussen...and as every troll likes to tell us "THEY HAVE CORRECTLY PICKED THE LAST TWO ELECTIONS."

I would also note the flailing nature of the Obama campaign. That's what happens when none of your messages, such as they are, gain traction. So far we've had:

Obama is just like Ronald Reagan.
Mitt Romney is a scary right-winger.
Mitt Romney is a rich guy from the private sector.
Obama has always been at war with anti-gay marriage forces.
Mitt Romney is a tax cheat.
Here's Obama with a bat.
Mitt Romney killed this guy's wife.
Paul Ryan's Medicare plan co-authored with a Democrat is genocide.
Paul Ryan has no private sector experience. (No, seriously.)
Whatever it was that Debbie Wasserman-Schultz vomited.
Paul Ryan is Sarah Palin.
CHAINS.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at August 15, 2012 05:27 AM (kNqmp)

30 OT: One day after Slow Joe's "put y'all back in chains" comment, the New Black Panthers threaten violence at the RNC Convention. Link on Drudge.

Posted by: Beefy Meatball at August 15, 2012 05:28 AM (mxnUd)

31 Meh. A trend is a trend, until it's not. Up until the last election, it was guaranteed fact that you couldn't flip the House with out also flipping the Senate. Now that rule is out the door.

Posted by: toby928© at August 15, 2012 05:28 AM (evdj2)

32 Vic: Agreed on NC and VA... Florida is a tough one... It all depends on voter turnout and who believes the lie...

Posted by: TFC3Tweets at August 15, 2012 05:30 AM (bgzAd)

33 I read a good piece on how to point out how big the deficit is. Kinda like the piles of $100 bills posted yesterday but in time.

Conceptualizing $1 Trillion
An excellent way to conceptualize a million, vs. a billion, vs. a trillion is in terms of time. Without doing any calculations, how long is a million seconds, a billion seconds, and a trillion seconds?

Here are the answers.

    1 Million seconds is 12 days.
    1 Billion seconds is nearly 32 years.
    1 Trillion seconds 31,688 years.

http://tinyurl.com/cv2c8y7

Posted by: Buzzsaw at August 15, 2012 05:30 AM (tf9Ne)

34 Oh, I left out the best one:

When I siad "You didn't build that," I did not say "You didn't build that."

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at August 15, 2012 05:31 AM (kNqmp)

35 opinion are free to post, but when it comes time to put real money down like on Intrade Romney backers are hard to find

Posted by: occam at August 15, 2012 05:31 AM (hgDJr)

36 The New Black Panthers are, let's face it, clowns. Their promises of blitzkreig usually amount to a few flabby losers with a bullhorn.

Posted by: nickless at August 15, 2012 05:32 AM (MMC8r)

37 My take on the election is FL, NC, VA, IN, OH, and PA flip Red, Romney
wins 281 - 257.

So long, thanks for all the fish, now get the fuck out of here you POS!

Posted by: General Woundwort at August 15, 2012 05:32 AM (06lNq)

38 Why are Republicans pointing out that Biden should be off the ticket? If O chooses Hillary as VP, he wins easy... We WANT Biden on that ticket...

Posted by: TFC3Tweets at August 15, 2012 05:32 AM (bgzAd)

39 As things continue to go against the leftards, security for Romney and Ryan had better rise to the occaision. I wouldn't put anything past these left wing thugs.

Posted by: maddogg at August 15, 2012 05:33 AM (OlN4e)

40 @Kelley:

And the RCP average is based on...? Don't worry, I'll tell you- they got Gallup and Rasmussen which is okay, Rasmussen always has sane sampling, Gallup often does.

And then the RCP avg falls off the cliff- Politico/GWU (joke sampling), CNN/Opinion Research (another joke), IBD/CSM/TIPP- whatever the hell that is they had D+5 so yet another joke, Reutard/Ipsos - also D+5 this is getting just sad, Fox if memory serves they oversampled dumbos on this one too.

So an average based on a preponderance of crap numbers- you're going to get a crap result.

A.k.a.- scientifically verified horseshite.

But I do agree that maximum effort will be needed to flush the mincing turd and his horrid band of scum.

Posted by: Chariots of Toast at August 15, 2012 05:33 AM (ksERZ)

41 RASMUSSEN Daily Tracking! Romney 47 O 43!!!!!

Posted by: TFC3Tweets at August 15, 2012 05:33 AM (bgzAd)

42 opinion are free to post, but when it comes time to put real money down like on Intrade Romney backers are hard to find For every bettor, there's a counter bettor. Intrade doesn't have a "House". Shinebox, now.

Posted by: toby928© at August 15, 2012 05:34 AM (evdj2)

43 Putting Hillary on the ticket won't save the fucking Zero. Shes just another political whore who has hitched her star to a sinking ship.

Posted by: maddogg at August 15, 2012 05:35 AM (OlN4e)

44 Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable tyrant.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at August 15, 2012 05:35 AM (8y9MW)

45 @33

Here's a better way

http://tinyurl.com/7sxbt8p

Posted by: General Woundwort at August 15, 2012 05:35 AM (06lNq)

46 what? O will drop Biden cause he is too dumb? O will keep Biden because Biden can say all the really, really racist things & everyone gives him a pass because he is too dumb

Posted by: kelley in virginia at August 15, 2012 05:35 AM (p3a8+)

47 43maddogg her best bet was to walk away early in his presidency and denounce EVERYTHING he did...a press conference a day.....she didn't do it.....she's done too

Posted by: phoenixgirl, team dagny at August 15, 2012 05:36 AM (Ho2rs)

Posted by: nickless at August 15, 2012 09:24 AM (MMC8r)

___

I'm going to have to find that entire speech on C-SPAN, because so far the bits and pieces I've heard are right on point. For instance: the president's campaign is exhausted and out of ideas, they are angry and desperate. That's a paraphrase, but pretty close to what he said. I'm liking this Mitt Unplugged character.

Posted by: kallisto at August 15, 2012 05:36 AM (jm/9g)

49 Putting Hillary on the ticket won't save the fucking Zero. Shes just another political whore who has hitched her star to a sinking ship.

Posted by: maddogg at August 15, 2012 09:35 AM (OlN4e)

The next stops for Muffer are Jenny Craig and the Betty Ford center.

Posted by: Captain Hate (dagny solidarity) at August 15, 2012 05:37 AM (sz9nR)

50 phoenixgirl, I agree.

Posted by: maddogg at August 15, 2012 05:37 AM (OlN4e)

51 >> Why are Republicans pointing out that Biden should be off the ticket? If O chooses Hillary as VP, he wins easy... We WANT Biden on that ticket...

I wouldn't go so far as to say he wins easily, but if I were the Democrats, that trade is a no-brainer.

If they're going to do it, though, they'd better do it soon. The longer they wait, the more it will look like panic.

Posted by: Nicholas Kronos at August 15, 2012 05:37 AM (qyQRd)

52 It all depends on voter turnout and who believes the lie...

From what I have seen, the Romney and R ground game is as good as it gets this go 'round.

And the Obama camp is HANDING the Medicare issue to Romney on a silver platter. They will quit talking about it by the weekend. Just watch.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at August 15, 2012 05:37 AM (B9nls)

53 getting on the treadmill to walk out my fear & anxiety of an O win

Posted by: kelley in virginia at August 15, 2012 05:37 AM (p3a8+)

"38Why are Republicans pointing out that Biden should be off the ticket? If O chooses Hillary as VP, he wins easy... "

If the democrat internal polls show Obama is in enough trouble to dump Biden, it would be a poor bet for Hillary to agree to join the ticket. She would sit back and wait for Obama to drop out and run on her own.

Posted by: jwest at August 15, 2012 05:38 AM (ZDsRL)

55 Stuart Varney on Hannity last night was great... He was exasperated with all the lies and the dirt... Said he never thought the President would stoop this low and that he's just a typical Chicago thug

Posted by: TFC3Tweets at August 15, 2012 05:38 AM (bgzAd)

56 Hillary was doomed the day she took the SOS job. I said then it was a huge mistake because the choom would marginalize her and her career would be over.

That is exactly what has happened.

Posted by: Vic at August 15, 2012 05:38 AM (YdQQY)

57 In what way does a tornado resemble a blond? At first there is a lot of sucking and blowing and then your house is gone. And then they end up in a trailer park.

Posted by: WalrusRex at August 15, 2012 05:38 AM (Hx5uv)

58 Stuart Varney is da man, and not just because of his accent.

Posted by: toby928© at August 15, 2012 05:38 AM (evdj2)

59 @kelley in va- geez, be sure to put on your sweats with the picture of Eeyore on the front.

Posted by: Chariots of Toast at August 15, 2012 05:39 AM (ksERZ)

60 Dumping Biden just opens the door to the "BIDEN WAS NOT THE PROBLEM" tack...

Posted by: nickless at August 15, 2012 05:39 AM (MMC8r)

And on that marvelous election day, O's ass was kicked

After the returns from Wisconsin came in, he knew he'd been licked

The unions had flunked, the unions had failed

Each and every American cheered and hailed

As his oul ass was sent flyin

By oul Romney-Ryan

Posted by: IrishNewEnglander at August 15, 2012 05:39 AM (OygJX)

62 Stuart Varney is the only Englishman I know of who isn't hopelessly insane.

Posted by: maddogg at August 15, 2012 05:40 AM (OlN4e)

63 55 Stuart Varney on Hannity last night was great... He was exasperated with all the lies and the dirt... Said he never thought the President would stoop this low and that he's just a typical Chicago thug

Posted by: TFC3Tweets at August 15, 2012 09:38 AM (bgzAd)

He just interview Peggy Noonan about that. She agrees.....yeah, thanks for nothing, Peggy.

Posted by: Tami at August 15, 2012 05:40 AM (X6akg)

64 chariots: we've got very, very competitive US Senate race in Va that is virtually tied in the polls. that is causing me anxiety too.

i live in very poor rural area where about 50% are on public assistance. the will come out for O in droves.

maybe I need to get out more

Posted by: kelley in virginia at August 15, 2012 05:41 AM (p3a8+)

65 How did that vile and hated Nixon win so many votes the 2nd time around? It is not like he was popular. Must be those bastard rethuglican's stealing the vote.
/sarc

Posted by: Vmaximus at August 15, 2012 05:41 AM (YQiOq)

66 Noonan still longs to polish the Kenyan Knob.

Posted by: toby928© at August 15, 2012 05:41 AM (evdj2)

67 Stuart Varney is the only Englishman I know of who isn't hopelessly insane. Posted by: maddogg at August 15, 2012 09:40 AM (OlN4e) Daniel Hannon?

Posted by: TFC3Tweets at August 15, 2012 05:41 AM (bgzAd)

68 >>If O chooses Hillary as VP, he wins easy... Really? Why? She's been highly ineffective as Secy of State. Obama has spent a lot of time marginalizing her. Why would anyone except Hillbots care if she's VP? >>We WANT Biden on that ticket... That part is probably true.

Posted by: Y-not at August 15, 2012 05:41 AM (5H6zj)

69 Does anybody have a link for the video of the Romney speech last night?

Posted by: catman at August 15, 2012 05:42 AM (NYdB8)

70 getting on the treadmill to walk out my fear anxiety of an O win

Or you could call up the local GOP, get a list of names/addresses and go walking in some neighborhoods. Then you could both work off your anxiety and work to put Romney over the top.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at August 15, 2012 05:42 AM (8y9MW)

71 I don't know Daniel Hannon.

Posted by: maddogg at August 15, 2012 05:42 AM (OlN4e)

72 He just interview Peggy Noonan about that. She agrees.....yeah, thanks for nothing, Peggy.

Posted by: Tami at August 15, 2012 09:40 AM (X6akg)

Maybe Nooner should explain how she managed to get so completely bamboozled by that transparent grifter and then tell why we should ever trust another fucking thing coming out of her upper jizz hole.

Posted by: Captain Hate (dagny solidarity) at August 15, 2012 05:42 AM (sz9nR)

73 How did that vile and hated Nixon win so many votes the 2nd time around?

That was the first campaign that I really remember.

Even at that age, I thought "George Effing McGovern?" Really?

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at August 15, 2012 05:43 AM (B9nls)

Posted by: Captain Hate (dagny solidarity) at August 15, 2012 09:37 AM (sz9nR)

___

Yes to Betty Ford, nix Jenny Craig. Hill's girlfriends subscribe to the "more bounce to the ounce" theory.

Posted by: kallisto at August 15, 2012 05:43 AM (jm/9g)

75 A Romney first: over 40% of youth vote back him

For the first time since he began running for president, Republican Mitt Romney has the support of over 40 percent of America's youth vote, a troubling sign for President Obama who built his 2008 victory with the overwhelming support of younger, idealistic voters.

Pollster John Zogby of JZ Analytics told Secrets Tuesday that Romney received 41 percent in his weekend poll of 1,117 likely voters, for the first time crossing the 40 percent mark. What's more, he said that Romney is the only Republican of those who competed in the primaries to score so high among 18-29 year olds.

"This is the first time I am seeing Romney's numbers this high among 18-29 year olds," said Zogby. "This could be trouble for Obama who needs every young voter he can get."

http://tinyurl.com/9s8x4m2

Posted by: Tami at August 15, 2012 05:44 AM (X6akg)

76 73 How did that vile and hated Nixon win so many votes the 2nd time around? That was the first campaign that I really remember. Even at that age, I thought "George Effing McGovern?" Really? ------ Me, too. I worked that campaign, stuffing mailers (as well as local elections). I was 10 at the time. Remember we had this great poster in the back room of the office of a pregnant lady with the caption "Nixon's the one." McGovern caused my dad to switch from D to R.

Posted by: Y-not at August 15, 2012 05:45 AM (5H6zj)

77 "A trend is a trend, until it's not. Up until the last election, it was guaranteed fact that you couldn't flip the House with out also flipping the Senate. Now that rule is out the door.

Posted by: toby928Â© at August 15, 2012 09:28 AM (evdj2)"

True, but I'm a firm believer that if the entire Senate were up for re-election in 2010, we'd have flipped it.

2012 will be where we finish the job.

Posted by: Burn the Witch at August 15, 2012 05:45 AM (eoedh)

78 Posted by: maddogg at August 15, 2012 09:42 AM (OlN4e)

You should try @DanHannanMEP for starters

Posted by: Hrothgar (Unhinged for Romney/Ryan ) at August 15, 2012 05:45 AM (Cnqmv)

79 replace joe with michelle!!!! that would be fun!

Posted by: phoenixgirl, team dagny at August 15, 2012 05:45 AM (Ho2rs)

80 @kelley- and those polls are being run by...? Don't take the numbers at face value, dig down and check for accuracy in sampling.

And a senate race does not a presidency win.

Also, choomie mcdowngrade ain't winning NC. Please to check the trouncing that the "redefine marriage" initiative took here- 20 or so points. And then the presidingus comes out in total opposition to this result a day or two later.

Head up, eyes bright- we have yet to begin the fight!

Posted by: Chariots of Toast at August 15, 2012 05:46 AM (ksERZ)

81 I must preemptively note that Average Joe sucks cock by choice.

Posted by: toby928© at August 15, 2012 05:47 AM (evdj2)

82 from this morning's "wah wah wah" email from the Barky campaign:

"Today, just 72 hours after joining the GOP ticket, Paul Ryan is making a pilgrimage to the Sands' Venetian casino in Las Vegas to kiss the ring of Sheldon Adelson, the billionaire casino magnate who's already donated more than $35 million to Republican groups in this election.

That's the same Sheldon Adelson who gave $15 million to help Newt Gingrich against Mitt Romney in the primary, and said he may give $100 million -- basically, whatever it costs -- to defeat Barack Obama."

.....
Didn't George Soros say he'd do almost anything to defeat Bush in 2004?

July 26, 2004
Over the past year, billionaire businessman and philanthropist George Soros has given millions of dollars to progressive groups seeking President Bush's defeat in November. Republicans charge such funding efforts are illegal, but so far, no judge or agency has agreed. NPR's Peter Overby reports.

http://tinyurl.com/8lry3hs

smell the despair...

Posted by: mallfly at August 15, 2012 05:47 AM (bJm7W)

83 .no President, starting with FDR* has failed to win more electoral votes in their second election than they did their first.

****
I think you mean "no President has won" or "each President has failed to win," don't you?

Posted by: Wodeshed at August 15, 2012 05:47 AM (UuLBC)

84 Which Senate seats are we flipping? I believe we're going to lose the Maine seat to a Dem in Indy clothing. So which ones are going red?

Posted by: Y-not at August 15, 2012 05:47 AM (5H6zj)

85 I must preemptively note that Average Joe sucks cock by choice.

****

And likely never turns down a stray.

Posted by: Wodeshed at August 15, 2012 05:48 AM (UuLBC)

86 Why keep Slow Joe on the ticket when it is blatantly obvious that you have given up trying for the only constituency he might bring.

You've trashed old energy so much the UMW won't endorse you.

You've declared war on the Catholic church.

You're sucking up to Hollywood and homosexuals because that's where your financial lifeblood comes from.

You refuse to enforce immigration laws.

What middle class white guy from the rust belt is going to vote for you just because you have Hairplugs Biden hobbling along behind you trying to kiss your ass?

Posted by: Nicholas Kronos at August 15, 2012 05:48 AM (qyQRd)

87 No president has ever been re-elected with unemployment over 7%, nor with GDP in the range it is in now. The point is, the democrats feel like they have finally crossed the rubicon with regards to the number of citizens dependent upon the state. They believe that they have 51+% of the electorate when you include socialists, unions, abortion lovers, and those who are living off of the federal teat. We will see in November, though the 2010 midterms proved their hypothesis wrong in spades.

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at August 15, 2012 05:48 AM (Z6meB)

88 I believe we're going to lose the Maine seat to a Dem in Indy clothing. So which ones are going red?

Well, we'll finally get back the Texas Seat which was occupied by Kay Bailey Hutchison. Does that count?

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at August 15, 2012 05:49 AM (8y9MW)

89 If O chooses Hillary as VP, he wins easy...

----

Empty Suit/Empty Pants Suit 2012: That Three A.M. Phone Call Is Ringing but Nobody Is Picking Up

Posted by: WalrusRex at August 15, 2012 05:49 AM (Hx5uv)

90 Which Senate seats are we flipping?

WI, VA, FL, MO to start.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at August 15, 2012 05:49 AM (uMSNt)

91 History has got nothing to do with it. That he is a SCOAMF has everything to do with it.

Posted by: dogfish at August 15, 2012 05:50 AM (N2yhW)

92 We need a net +3 to control the Senate, presuming R&R win. And if it's 50/50, none of this power sharing shit.

Posted by: toby928© at August 15, 2012 05:51 AM (evdj2)

93 Why keep Slow Joe on the ticket when it is blatantly obvious that you have given up trying for the only constituency he might bring.

The longer it goes before he makes the change (and he can only make it up through the convention, then he's stuck), the more it looks (as someone said) like a desperation move, rather than a "policy move."

Also, who do you get who can show your change in policy? Isn't that why (in theory) VPs are changed- to signal a "change in priorities" or a "change in direction?" Well, who would believe any change in priorities with this WH? Indeed, why would they open themselves up to the resultant attacks?

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at August 15, 2012 05:52 AM (8y9MW)

94 Everything is against Obama being reelected. The economy, the job market, his job performance, etc. The problems, however, are that the public never before has been dumbed down to this extent, that blacks will vote to reelect Obama at least by a 95-5 margin on heavy turnout, that Latinos outside of Florida are becoming a lock step, identity bloc for Democrats (thanks in no small part to the xenophobic wing of the GOP) and that perhaps a few million evangelicals will sit out the election because Romney is a Mormon. It would be a severe mistake to underestimate Obama and the Democrat machine. It also would be a severe mistake to overestimate the cognitive abilities of various factions on the right. Ultimately it will take a herculean effort to remove Obama from office. The Dems are not going to go down without putting up a ghastly fight.

Posted by: Tsar Nicholas II at August 15, 2012 05:53 AM (r2PLg)

95 Paul Ryan is Sarah Palin.

----

Sarah Palin on California:

When I think about the direction our country is rapidly drifting in, I can't help but look at California as a cautionary tale. The Golden State once boasted the entrepreneurial innovation of Silicon Valley, the American creative engine of the arts, economically powerful and beautiful cities from San Francisco to San Diego, and fertile farmlands that helped feed the nation. Now it is descending into financial ruin accompanied by an exodus of middle class Californians leaving for other states. As one writer put it, California's "fastest-growing entity is government and its biggest product is red tape."

Posted by: WalrusRex at August 15, 2012 05:53 AM (Hx5uv)

This metric is just as retarded as using the AFC or NFC Superbowl victor, or yearly sales of Girl Scout cookies, or "bellwether" states.

There. Is. No. Reliable. Predictor.

Especially when you pepper your new hard-and-fast "rule" with exceptions.

Posted by: Empire of Jeff at August 15, 2012 05:53 AM (BushJ)

97 Dear History, Please repeat yourself. Four more years of this will kill my liver. BTW, how did this America-hater ever get elected in the first place?

Posted by: Cricket at August 15, 2012 05:54 AM (DrC22)

Posted by: catman at August 15, 2012 09:42 AM (NYdB

___

I went on CSPAN's site to find the link, but it states that video currently unavailable. If you do a search for CSPAN "road to the white house", or campaign 2012, it will take you to their collection of campaign events, ads, speeches, etc.

Posted by: kallisto at August 15, 2012 05:54 AM (jm/9g)

99 Which Senate seats are we flipping?

I believe we're going to lose the Maine seat to a Dem in Indy clothing. So which ones are going red?

Posted by: Y-not at August 15, 2012 09:47 AM (5H6zj)

I think Josh Mandel has a good chance against Sherrod Brown in Ohio.

Posted by: Captain Hate (dagny solidarity) at August 15, 2012 05:54 AM (sz9nR)

100 Early OT, sorta: Since my vote in left-of-Lenin MD won't count for much, I am going to give money to a political candidate for the first time ever. Question for the Horde: better to donate to Romney, the RNC, or a PAC? What's the best use of the money? Don't say all of the above, most of my disposable income is being invested in precious metals. Mainly brass, copper and lead. Thanks.

Posted by: DC in Towson at August 15, 2012 05:55 AM (LA8IC)

101 "If the democrat internal polls show Obama is in enough trouble to dump Biden, it would be a poor bet for Hillary to agree to join the ticket. She would sit back and wait for Obama to drop out and runon her own.

Posted by: jwest at August 15, 2012 09:38 AM (ZDsRL)"

I'll go ahead and put my money on Hillary dropping out right after Obama loses the election so she can focus on her 2016 run.

Hillary's association with a failed President will be conveniently forgotten by the media and Democratic voters (BIRM), just like they forgive and forget all infractions by Democrats.

Clinton/Weiner 2016!

Posted by: Burn the Witch at August 15, 2012 05:55 AM (eoedh)

102

I believe we're going to lose the Maine seat to a Dem in Indy clothing. So which ones are going red?

Michigan is going red this year - without a doubt. Democrats lost in the midterm by a landslide, the governorship went republican by 19 points, so Stabenow is toast.

Posted by: jwest at August 15, 2012 05:55 AM (ZDsRL)

103 Empty Suit/Empty Pants Suit 2012
***
I must contest your assertion that the pants suit is empty.

Posted by: Wodeshed at August 15, 2012 05:55 AM (UuLBC)

104 Looks like SCoaMF is secretly sending seal team 6, that secret platoon of our military into Mexico to catch a drug kingpin. I'm rooting for the kingpin.

Posted by: Hal Burton at August 15, 2012 05:56 AM (kzFo5)

105 OK, now I know 2 Englishmen who are not hopelessly insane. That still ain't very many.

Posted by: maddogg at August 15, 2012 05:56 AM (OlN4e)

106

Nixon wasn't vile and hated then.

The propaganda of the last 37 years has made Nixon hated.

People need devils to hate, and the Media hated Nixon and made him into a devil.

As Nixon himself said," I handed my enemies a knife and they pushed it in."

Posted by: Reader C.J.Burch writes...... at August 15, 2012 05:56 AM (RFeQD)

107 AllenG: I think you go with HRC. The constituency most in play is working married women, and she is the only one who could dampen the "they're panicked" reaction to dropping the test dummy.

Thankfully, I don't think the switch is going to happen--partly because Obama takes forever to make a decision and he doesn't have the luxury of time--but it would be a stronger ticket than Obama-Biden.

Posted by: Nicholas Kronos at August 15, 2012 05:58 AM (qyQRd)

108 As Ronald Reagan observed, Â“The Soviets have Freedom of Speech, too. The difference is that in America, we have Freedom after Speech.Â”

Blink.

Posted by: That was then; this is now. at August 15, 2012 05:58 AM (BAnPT)

109 >>WI, VA, FL, MO to start. OK, so that's a net +3 with Paul Ryan (swoon) as tie-breaker.

Posted by: Y-not at August 15, 2012 05:58 AM (5H6zj)

110 Spike Lee said Obama is "gunna do whatever he wants in a Second Term"?

For once we agree.

As a private citizen, Obama will be able to share the same freedoms we all do.

He can imagine it's a second term. I'm generous like that.

Posted by: Exile at August 15, 2012 05:58 AM (GGCsk)

111 Our task is to make Zero reviled and hated in history. And to make Joe Biden forgotten by history (ok that last part is easy).

Posted by: maddogg at August 15, 2012 05:59 AM (OlN4e)

112 A Pennsylvania judge on Wednesday refused to stop a tough new voter identification law from going into effect, which Democrats say will suppress votes among President Barack Obama's supporters.

Commonwealth Court Judge Robert Simpson said he wouldn't grant an injunction that would have halted the law requiring each voter to show a valid photo ID.

Opponents are expected to file an appeal within a day or two to the state Supreme Court as the Nov. 6 presidential election looms.

The Republican-penned law Â— which passed over the objections of Democrats Â— has ignited a furious debate over voting rights as Pennsylvania is poised to play a key role in deciding the presidential contest in November. Opponents had asked Simpson to block the law from taking effect in this year's election as part of a wider challenge to its constitutionality.

Posted by: Islamic Rage Boy at August 15, 2012 05:59 AM (e8kgV)

113 Good morning 'ettes and 'rons.

Two thoughts today, based on perusing the news:

1) Chris Matthews is becoming unhinged over the Ryan selection. To me this is the best indication that it is a slam dunk choice for Romney. Matthews sees that this is the final nail in Obama's coffin, and is the most likely media figure to display the panic they all are feeling.

2) Notice how the congressional approval ratings conveniently rate approval of the entire Congress, not the House and Senate separately? This gives the MFM the opportunity to demagogue how the "public hates the conservatives in the House", but I'd be willing to bet that the majority of that disapproval is based on the Senate's refusal to take action on anything, especially a budget.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at August 15, 2012 05:59 AM (0F/wr)

114 NC looks like a 99% lock for Romney/Ryan from where I'm sitting. Judging mainly by signs, bumper stickers, calls and letters to local (Lib) media, all of the momentum is away from Obama. He won by only 14,000 votes in 2008. Since then the legislature has flipped to red and the Dems have splintered into factions. I say R/R win NC by half a million votes.

Posted by: Lincolntf at August 15, 2012 05:59 AM (6gk77)

115 Hillary would have to weigh the fact that if she took the VP slot, and they still when down, she's finished for good. I don't know if the Clinton's are All-In gamblers like that. They strike me as the type to always have one more plan.

Posted by: toby928© at August 15, 2012 06:00 AM (evdj2)

116 Question for the Horde: better to donate to Romney, the RNC, or a PAC? What's the best use of the money?

It depends on how limited your funds are.
The RNC is right out. They'll spend the money on RINOs along with Conservatives. Not their fault, it's their job. But still.

Money donated to Romney can only be used for Romney. His campaign can't cut commercials (as I understand it) for any other candidate. So give to him if you have severely limited funds, or if you think he's going to have long enough coat-tails to put other candidates over the top.

Money donated to a PAC can be used for anything that PAC wants. If you can find a PAC that supports (with ad buys, flyers, etc.) multiple candidates you support, and you're not severely limited, then I would give to the PAC.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at August 15, 2012 06:00 AM (8y9MW)

117

"The longer it goes before he makes the change (and he can only make it up through the convention, then he's stuck), the more it looks (as someone said) like a desperation move, rather than a "policy move."

I'm not buying that "desperation" label for this tactics. Despite the reality of it actually being a desperate move. At this point, they need to energize the base. It's the only thing they can do and stuffing Hillary on the ticket will do just that.

Posted by: Burn the Witch at August 15, 2012 06:00 AM (eoedh)

118 People need devils to hate, and the Media hated Nixon and made him into a devil

***

And they made Ford into a stooge, George Bush into a little old lady, and Reagan into a doddering idiot.

Still, one of my favorite SNL skits ever was Reagan as the "mastermind", who switched at will from kindly old man to madman genius.

Posted by: Wodeshed at August 15, 2012 06:00 AM (UuLBC)

119 Question for the Horde: better to donate to Romney, the RNC, or a PAC? What's the best use of the money? ---- I would give to FreedomWorks out of that list. But I think I'd give to a seat that can be flipped. For me that would be Mia Love over Jim Matheson in the House.

Posted by: Y-not at August 15, 2012 06:00 AM (5H6zj)

120 tough new voter identification law

Yes, reaching into your wallet or purse is like climbing Everest, I tell you.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at August 15, 2012 06:01 AM (uMSNt)

121

"(thanks in no small part to the xenophobic wing of the GOP)

Posted by: Tsar Nicholas II at August 15, 2012 09:53 AM (r2PLg)"

Really, I didn't know we had an entire wing of Xenophobes. Who reported that, MSNBC?

Posted by: Burn the Witch at August 15, 2012 06:02 AM (eoedh)

122 It goes further than that. Excluding FDR's 3rd and 4th elections, only two presidents in history have won re-election with fewer electoral votes than in their first bid: Madison in 1812, and Wilson in 1916. Madison's election was the 4th in a row for Republicans and came in the middle of an unpopular war, and Wilson only won by such a large margin in 1912 because the GOP was split into two factions between Taft and Roosevelt. Certainly Obama can win re-election with fewer votes, but I think the idea is that presidents either gain in popularity as they go along and cruise to re-election, or else they lose their support to the point where they lose. I would bet that Obama is on the path to defeat.

Posted by: Paul Zummo at August 15, 2012 06:02 AM (Ud5vq)

123 RR MIGHT carry NC. They are going to walk away with it NC. I think we have a better chance at PA then OH, don't understand OH. Flippers in order: IN, NC, FL, VA, NH, WI, PA, IA, CO, MI, NV, NJ

Posted by: Jean at August 15, 2012 06:03 AM (WkuV6)

124 Heh stuffing flyers at 10. That is how political junkies are made. I was in 3rd grade wishing I could vote for Nixon.

CJ I included the sarc tag!

Posted by: Vmaximus at August 15, 2012 06:04 AM (YQiOq)

125 Why does Obama stick with Biden? I would not be surprised if Obama's current calculus is that he may not win. And if that happens, he needs an excuse other than his record. Biden becomes the fall (white) guy, Obama agitates from the outside for a couple of years while playing lots of golf and banking lots of coin, and runs, again, as an outsider. No way Hillary touches the VP job, even if offered.

Posted by: USA at August 15, 2012 06:05 AM (6Cjut)

126 It's the only thing they can do and stuffing Hillary on the ticket will do just that.

I don't think it does, anymore. First off, anyone who would be swayed by having Hillary on the ticket is probably leaning D anyway (if not already committed). There's also the fact that she's been a complete non-entity for 3 years, and completely mockable any time she has made the news ('Reset Button.') Finally, there's the question of what she brings to the ticket (other than 'excitement') that Plugs doesn't bring.

She's already part of the Administration, so she already owns its failures- especially its foreign policy failures. She's not exactly known to be great on fiscal issues. The only place she really has any standing is Health Care- which is not something Obama wants to run on.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at August 15, 2012 06:05 AM (8y9MW)

127 "RCP avg has Obami up in swing states"

Look Kelley, I know you aren't a troll, because I've seen you here a lot, but this is a silly statement.

The RCP average includes the polls that are horrendously over sampling Democrats, like the Pew poll with a D+19 sample. The Obama campaign and the MFM (BIRM) are gaming the RCP methodology by getting bad polls factored into the average.

There a NO polls that over sample Republicans included in the average. Simple math, the RCP average has to skew to Obama. Add in that these polls are using RV models (and it a few cases Adults), and you get a D+ bias of about 5 points, assuming a turnout model somewhere between 2008 and 2010. It we get a 2010 turnout model, then it is a landslide.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at August 15, 2012 06:06 AM (0F/wr)

128

"The next stops for Muffer are Jenny Craig and the Betty Ford center."

Powerful leftists never go away, they just NGO away. She's probably angling for Secretary-General of the UN. That's why she keeps Houma around. Well, that, and the money's on Weiner for NYC mayor, so Hillary's gonna keep that ace up her pantsuit.

Posted by: 66chevelle at August 15, 2012 06:09 AM (QjSgY)

129 I think it is too late to dump Biden, he has done the damage. He should have retired for personal and family reasons six months ago. Now it will look like Chicago/New Jersey politics to the rest of the nation -- and it will not sell. HRC knows this and would refuse the offer.

Posted by: Jean at August 15, 2012 06:10 AM (WkuV6)

130 I was in 3rd grade wishing I could vote for Nixon.

Oh, sonny boy, I was in second grade wishing I could vote for Nixon.
The first time.

And I still don't like the the sonofabitch.

Posted by: comatus at August 15, 2012 06:10 AM (qaVK+)

131 I'll say it again: $2 won't sell on the Android market. Make it a dollar, or ad-supported, or make both available.

Posted by: HoboJerky, profit of DOOM! at August 15, 2012 06:11 AM (MrM2k)

132 1.) RCP is crap right now. They are counting any poll that comes down the pike, they will be something to look at when they shift to only LV polls. 2.) Someone said incumbents only lose re-election in electoral landslides? False. Thomas Jefferson had a close electoral vote race when he ousted Adams in 1800. Benjamin Harrison won a VERY close election to oust Cleveland from his 1st term in 1888. Carter won a tight election in 1976 to oust Ford. Clinton ousted HW w/ less then 50% of the popular vote. Get your facts straight. 3.) Other then 1948 & 1976, incumbents ALWAYS lead going into the conventions. Even Carter lead Reagan before the RNC.

Posted by: AuthorLMendez, Head Of The Projection Desk at August 15, 2012 06:11 AM (8beAV)

133 Still, one of my favorite SNL skits ever was Reagan as the "mastermind", who switched at will from kindly old man to madman genius. Don't make me kill you, Jimmy.

Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at August 15, 2012 06:11 AM (Ec6wH)

134

"Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at August 15, 2012 10:05 AM (8y9MW)"

I agree with everything you said, my point is just that the issues you're pointing out appeal to low information voters. The base and swing voters don't know about The Reset, or any of her other failures because they either A) don't see them as failures or her fault, or B) don't even know.

For all intents and purposes, those issues are irrelevant.

She has a huge following in the media and the Dem base (BIRM) and would absolutely charge up the base, which is exactly what's starting to kill them in the polls right now. Imagine the full court press with the War on Women garbage they'll unleash.

Their base would go apeshit.

Posted by: Burn the Witch at August 15, 2012 06:12 AM (eoedh)

135 oops! forgot to link my handle to the site

Posted by: AuthorLMendez, Head Of The Projection Desk at August 15, 2012 06:12 AM (8beAV)

136 Really, I didn't know we had an entire wing of Xenophobes.

***

Go right at the Plaza of Tycoons, then left after the Hall of Racists.

Posted by: Wodeshed at August 15, 2012 06:12 AM (UuLBC)

137 Rotting teeth can cause a person to go BSC.

Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at August 15, 2012 06:13 AM (Ec6wH)

138 http://preview.tinyurl.com/9ny8qgm

Posted by: WalrusRex at August 15, 2012 09:16 AM (Hx5uv)

***

Sweet bejeezers I can't keep up with all the sub groups of sexual identities, these people give me a headache.

Also, TheBlaze is a good websight/news aggregator but they have to get rid of the nonsense; tone down the adverts and pop-ups. Its freakin annoying especially when on the Kindle Fire.

Posted by: dananjcon at August 15, 2012 06:13 AM (eavT+)

139

*don't appeal to low info voters.

crap

Posted by: Burn the Witch at August 15, 2012 06:13 AM (eoedh)

140 oops, I should mention Kerry lead Bush going into the 04 conventions. In fact throw that argument about the incumbents leading away. Looking at History it seems Republicans don't start polling better until after the conventions

Posted by: AuthorLMendez, Head Of The Projection Desk at August 15, 2012 06:14 AM (8beAV)

141 BTW, how did this America-hater ever get elected in the first place?

Posted by: Cricket at August 15, 2012 09:54 AM (DrC22)

By having the entirety of the MSM act as his public relations team plus the disaster that was W's second term plus John McCain's "lose honorably" campaign. Those are the top 3 on my list.

Posted by: davidinvirginia at August 15, 2012 06:14 AM (qEkGZ)

142 AllenG, that is good advice. I ask because I got a flyer with a letter from Mitt asking for money and volunteers, but the form asked the check to be made out to the RNC. Guess I will donate directly to Mitt and shop around for a good PAC to kick some cash to. Maybe someone who's working like hell to keep Lt.Col. West in office...

Posted by: DC in Towson at August 15, 2012 06:14 AM (LA8IC)

143

Judge in PA refuses to toss out PA Voter ID law.

ACLU appealing to State Supreme Court, but I doubt they will throw it out.

Posted by: Jay at August 15, 2012 06:16 AM (3LaGb)

144 new one up

Posted by: Vic at August 15, 2012 06:16 AM (YdQQY)

145

Sweet bejeezers I can't keep up with all the sub groups of sexual identities, these peoplegive me a headache.

"Pansexual"...IOW she'll bang anything. Alrighty then...I give a shit, why can't they just keep it to themselves??

Posted by: dananjcon at August 15, 2012 06:16 AM (eavT+)

146 Do not be surprised, if by fall and Obama is down big, he resigns for the final few months to allow Biden to be a placeholder for a few months. Biden would then pardon Obama for his sure to be covered up crimes.

R/R takes the White House, and the GOP both houses, and then we'll all know just how corrupt this administration has been.

Posted by: aerofanatic at August 15, 2012 06:16 AM (h8FS0)

147 Obama won't get any new states and there have been structural changes in the electoral college due to the census, so his ceiling is 353 votes. A flip of 84 votes to Romney will seal a win.

It's almost a mortal lock that Romney will pull in the Omaha CD, Indiana, and North Carolina, so that's a 27EV flip right there.

Once you put Ohio (18 EVs), Florida (29 EVs), Wisconsin (10 EVs), and Virginia (13 EVs) into play, Barry's in trouble.

Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at August 15, 2012 06:17 AM (e0xKF)

148 For generations, children have been taught to hate America in school; particularly in college. The first thing I was told during my university orientation in 1993 was "everything you learned in high school about America, and everything your parents taught you about America is wrong."

97 Dear History,

Please repeat yourself. Four more years of this will kill my liver.

BTW, how did this America-hater ever get elected in the first place?

Posted by: Cricket at August 15, 2012 09:54 AM (DrC22)

Posted by: Pyrocles at August 15, 2012 06:18 AM (cv5Iw)

149 Sanity prevails in the initial PA Voter ID ruling. If the PA Supremes uphold it as well, paint PA red

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at August 15, 2012 06:18 AM (pmDdf)

150

Posted by: Jean at August 15, 2012 10:10 AM (WkuV6)

They are going to be reading Talking Points to Joe, and saying, "Do you agree? Please answer Yes or No."

"Well, yes, because I once had a---

"I'm sorry, Your time is up."

Posted by: 66chevelle at August 15, 2012 06:20 AM (QjSgY)

151 Sanity prevails in the initial PA Voter ID ruling. If the PA Supremes uphold it as well, paint PA red The urban polling places will just ignore the ruling.

Posted by: toby928© at August 15, 2012 06:20 AM (evdj2)

152 When someone is shooting holes in your walls, it does no good to just plaster over them. You have to disarm them, and in this case that means sending offenders to jail by the car load.

Posted by: toby928© at August 15, 2012 06:24 AM (evdj2)

153 AuthorLMendez:

Read more carefully. The discussion was about elections from FDR on. The Ford - Carter election was not germane to the discussion either because Ford had no previous election to compare. And it was about electoral votes, not popular, so your example of Clinton - Bush is likewise irrelevant. It's also worth pointing out that the race had a strong third party, meaning the less than 50 percent observation is just silly.

The point you make actually supports what I argue above--that you can establish patterns by which data you select, and that still does not mean the pattern will hold for a new input. Nevertheless, the reason the examples you cite were not included in the discussion is not from a lack of awareness of them but because they do not apply to Drew's original argument.

Posted by: Nicholas Kronos at August 15, 2012 06:24 AM (qyQRd)

154 Posted by: 66chevelle at August 15, 2012 10:20 AM (QjSgY)

More like"

"Blink once for Yes, and Twice for No."

Posted by: Hrothgar (Unhinged for Romney/Ryan ) at August 15, 2012 06:26 AM (Cnqmv)

155

"Obama won't get any new states and there have been structural changes in the electoral college due to the census"

What do you mean "no new states"?

Posted by: 57 at August 15, 2012 06:27 AM (eoedh)

156 LALALALALA Can't hear you Obama's winning LALALALALALALA

Posted by: Dr. Gergenfly Tardyaso at August 15, 2012 06:27 AM (aHR5E)

157 I like to daydream about Obama having a hissy fit and refusing to leave next January and being wheeled out of the White House Hannibal Lecter style.

Posted by: Emile Antoon Khadaji at August 15, 2012 06:33 AM (CrJzY)

158 I'm still astounded on an hourly basis with the cover and comfort given by the MFM to SCOAMF's gutter scraping decent into the sewers.

You would think there would be some instinct to survive this with something resembling alleged integrity, but it appears that the blind idealogues that inhabit the Left don't consider survival with the same reverence as free thinking men and women.

Lord help us

.......and not them.

Posted by: ontherocks at August 15, 2012 06:33 AM (aZ6ew)

159 151 Sanity prevails in the initial PA Voter ID ruling. If the PA Supremes uphold it as well, paint PA red

The urban polling places will just ignore the ruling. > They can try. The GOP-led State AG's office will be looking very closely at the returns for evidence of fraud to justify the law. Now, of course, I don't expect all fraud to be eliminated, especially from Philly, where I reside, but some of the more egregious offenders will be forced to tamp it down a bit. The PA "margin of fraud" just became surmountable. That said, I have no idea how the PA Supremes will rule. Currently they are at 6 justices, evenly split bewteen the parties. The 7th justice is currently suspended under an ethics investigation. Guess the party.

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at August 15, 2012 06:39 AM (YmPwQ)

160 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at August 15, 2012 06:41 AM (6o4Fb)

161 George Effing McGovern?" Really? That is the result of the real leftists taking over the dem party. If I remember correctly Jessie jackass and his cohorts took over the IL delegation and pissed of Richard the first. That when KFC came out with the McGovern basket all left wings and ass holes

Posted by: cicero skip at August 15, 2012 06:46 AM (3m9Uc)

162

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at August 15, 2012 10:39 AM (YmPwQ)

___

Then I guess it comes down to Judge Seamus, who won his seat with considerable Republican support. He was the famous hanging judge, conservative when it comes to crimes and misdemeanors. But I fear he will revert to true donk form when it's a matter of keeping his party viable in PA. Who would be the tie-breaker?

Posted by: kallisto at August 15, 2012 06:51 AM (jm/9g)

163

need to amend above post:

strike: keeping party viable

replace with: delivering PA to unohu

(I can't stand writing any of his acronyms anymore even)

Posted by: kallisto at August 15, 2012 06:54 AM (jm/9g)

164 Quoting Exile:"As a private citizen, Obama will be able to share the same freedoms we all do."

Except with a Secret Service detail.

Posted by: Mr_Write at August 15, 2012 06:59 AM (VJUQK)

165 165 Quoting Exile:"As a private citizen, Obama will be able to share the same freedoms we all do."

Except with a Secret Service detail.
*
*
Good place to start cutting the budget. Reassign 'em. Nobody cares what BHO will be doing after he's out.

Posted by: Wolfus Aurelius at August 15, 2012 07:01 AM (exvgC)

166

Why the hell is Obama at all popular in Iowa?

I don't understand that one at all.

Posted by: Jay at August 15, 2012 07:01 AM (3LaGb)

167

Kallisto....funny that you mention Judge Seamus, Iu rode the elevator with him last week in my office. I work at a law firm (not a lawyer) and he was in for a conference. We had a short chat about the Phillies.

Anyway, I have to bone up on my PA supreme court rules. I know that if SCOTUS ties, the law is upheld, not sure about the state.

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at August 15, 2012 07:05 AM (YmPwQ)

168

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at August 15, 2012 11:05 AM (YmPwQ)

____

I hope some of your "PA goes red brainwaves" infiltrated his auric field during that short time near him. What did he say about the Fightins?

Posted by: kallisto at August 15, 2012 07:10 AM (jm/9g)

169 I know a lot of people are thinking that Obama trades in Biden for Hillary, but like with most VP picks, the bump is only going to be temporary (2 to 3 weeks TOPS, IMHO). The problem for Obama is...it's not the Veep that's hurting him, it's actually him that is causing the damage (not that Slow Joe is helping, mind you).

I don't see people voting because of peripheral (but important to us) things like the Senate not having a budget for over 3 stinking years, Obama bowing to foreign leaders, how many times Obama has gone golfing and things like that...but whether they can accept 4 more years of Obama and his policies.

We shall see.

Posted by: Mr_Write at August 15, 2012 07:14 AM (VJUQK)

170 Actually Drew, this didnt start with FDR. Its true for all reelected Presidents of the 20th century and it probably goes back even further.

Posted by: Elize Nayden at August 15, 2012 07:15 AM (75yL1)

171 Correction: I looked it up for the share of the popular vote, not electoral votes. Sorry!

Posted by: Elize Nayden at August 15, 2012 07:20 AM (75yL1)

172

800 lb gorilla, meet everybody in room - everybody in room, meet 800 lb gorilla...

Bill Clinton is the ONLY Democrat President since WWII (the big one) to win re-election?! And absent Ross Perot...

Not a real strong record there, seeing as how they have each and every one been the light of the world and all.

Posted by: sherlock at August 15, 2012 07:21 AM (BaQuW)

173 At some point, gravity has to kick in for this election.

Every election I've seen in my lifetime has been decided by the economy. If it's good, they're reelected, if it's bad, they're thrown out.

Posted by: Brady at August 15, 2012 07:48 AM (0kf1G)

174 Just for fun (and because I have a bad sinus infection) I hung around the comments section on the Yahoo story about Romney saying Barky wants to hold on to power. The low-level left talking points have degenerated to tax returns and Bush did it.
A few even called Ryan Hitler. Sad to see flame wars with so little ummmph. The cut and pasters were oddly absent with the exception of one lonely soul who linked to Soledad O'Brien.
I believe the Obama campaign is cash-poor and getting bad news on their internals. I also believe that with more than sixty days until the election, we are going to see some awful things being said and done. I never thought I would say this, but I really hope he doesn't try to postpone the election---but I wouldn't put it past him. Imagine trying to impeach him with the current congress.
Man, my head hurts even more now.

My senior friends in their eighties can't wait to vote against Obama (and they voted FOR him last time).

Posted by: 56 and loving RR at August 15, 2012 07:55 AM (e9kQC)

175 We still hate Bush here in Brattleboro.........

Posted by: Mary Clogginstien from Brattleboro, Vt at August 15, 2012 07:59 AM (48wze)

176

Posted by: Hrothgar (Unhinged for Romney/Ryan ) at August 15, 2012 10:26 AM (Cnqmv)

Yeah, I forgot about the ball-gag.

Posted by: 66chevelle at August 15, 2012 08:04 AM (QjSgY)

177 Another bit of history against Obama: We have only had three consecutive presidents elected to two terms once in our history: Jefferson, Adams and Monroe. Sure there was that pesky "be elected in a year ending in zero, die in office" thing that went on until Reagan, but still.

Posted by: Jen at August 15, 2012 08:31 AM (Du+x/)

178 "Not since Woodrow Wilson, almost 100 years ago, has an incumbent won reelection while losing Electoral College votes." Listen Barry, I knew Woodrow Wilson and you're no Woodrow Wilson.

Posted by: T. Roosevelt at August 15, 2012 09:17 AM (3xuEM)

179 RCP average has been reliable in the past. Obama is barely holding onto VA, IA and FL by a one point lead, and Romney has been polling well lately. Obama's national average is also within the MOE and trending downward. In VA, defense budget cuts mean layoffs and pink slips going out right before the election. Add to that their suit challenging Obamacare and their popular Republican governor, and I feel confident R- squared will carry that state. FL also has a good Republican governor and is hosting the convention. Rubio has fired up their local Hispanic community, and Jews aren't so keen on Obama this time around. FL will also be red. Obama was just in IA bragging about the farm bill and that he eats pork and drinks beer. His internal polling must be in the dumps. Add that Ryan is from neighboring WI, and I think the GOP can carry IA and WI, as well. Walker had several offices open statewide only 5 months ago. Priebus is from there. They have a mean ground game in WI. Those four states should be givens, and the numbers are very close right now.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at August 15, 2012 11:23 AM (QTKGF)

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